TI TR RI RO

TI TR RI RO

CC BIN PHP TI TR RI RO
TI TR SAU TN THT

TI TR TRC TN THT BNG BO
HIM

TI TR TRC TN THT BNG QU
GI LI

TI TR SAU TN THT
1. Cc ngun ti tr c sn sau tn tht
2. nh hng n cu trc vn
3. Phn tch ti tr sau tn tht khi dng
thu nhp khng i
4. Phn tch ti tr sau tn tht khi dng
thu nhp thay i
5. Chi ph giao dch v tn tht do gin
on

TI TR SAU TN THT
1. Cc ngun ti tr c sn sau tn tht

Khon vay t trc

Cc khon vay t xut
Cc khon vay ngn v trung hn
Vay di hn

TI TR SAU TN THT
2. nh hng n cu trc vn
N c chi ph thp hn vn c phn
Chi ph ca n v vn c phn tng theo t l n
WACC gim khi t l n tng

EBIT
Li (5%)
Li tc trc thu (T= 0%)
Li sut mong i ca c ng
Th gi vn c phn
Th gi Cng ty
WACC
1

Cty U (khng n) Cty L (c n)

100
100
0
25
100
75
0.1
0.11
1000
682
1000
1182
0.1
0.085
0
500

Tin mt v u t ngn hn
N

Vn c phn

TI TR SAU TN THT
3.

Phn tch ti tr sau tn tht khi dng

thu nhp khng i
Cng ty c dng thu nhp hng nm khng
i l E, li sut mong i ca c ng l
kE, th th gi vn c phn ca cng ty
(MVE) l

MVE =

E
kE

TI TR SAU TN THT

TI TR SAU TN THT
nh hng ca tn tht trn gi tr vn c phn
Trc tn tht
Sau tn tht
1,000,000
2,000,000
EBIT
200,000
200,000
Li (10%)
1,800,000
800,000
Li tc trc thu
0
0
Thu (0%)
1,800,000
800,000
Li tc thun
3.60
1.60
EPS
0.15
0.17
Li sut mong i ca c ng
3.60 / 0.15 = 24.00 1.60 / 0.17 = 9.41
Gi mt c phn
Th gi vn c phn
12,000,000
4,705,882
2,000,000
2,000,000
1
14,000,000
6,705,882
Th gi Cng ty
500,000
500,000
S c phiu
0.1429
0.1491
WACC

Cty T&P sn xut ph-mt c cu trc vn:

N: 2 triu USD, li sut 10%
Vn c phn: 500,000 c phiu thng
Hai nh my: thu nhp 1 triu USD / nm / nh my
Mt trn lt ln gy thit hi nghim trng cho mt
nh my, c tnh tn tht khong 2 triu USD
Li sut mong i ca c ng:
trc tn tht l 15%
sau tn tht l 17%
n gin ta gi s thu sut thu li tc l 0%
Tn tht nh hng ln gi tr cng ty nh th no?
C nn ti u t hay khng?

TI TR SAU TN THT
Ti tr sau tn tht (Thu nhp khng tng trng)
Trc tn tht
EBIT
Li
Li tc trc thu

TI TR SAU TN THT

Ti u t sau tn tht

Sau tn tht

Bng n

1,000,000

2,000,000

200,000

200,000

440,000

200,000

1,800,000

800,000

1,560,000

1,800,000

2,000,000

1,800,000

800,000

1,560,000

1,800,000

EPS

3.60

1.60

3.12

3.00

Li sut mong i ca c ng

0.15

0.17

0.17

0.15

24.00

9.41

18.35

20.00

12,000,000

4,705,882

9,176,471

12,000,000

2,000,000

2,000,000

2,000,000

2,000,000

2,000,000

100,000

Thu (0%)
Li tc thun

Gi mt c phn
Th gi vn c phn (MVE)
1 c (10%)
1 mi (12%)/C phiu mi
Th gi Cng ty
S c phiu c
WACC

14,000,000

6,705,882

13,176,471

14,000,000

500,000

500,000

500,000

500,000

0.1429

0.1491

0.1518

0.1429

Gi s dng thu nhp ca cng ty tng

trng vi tc g v thu nhp hin nay l
E0 th chng ta c th nh gi vn c phn
ca cng ty theo cng thc

MVE =

TI TR SAU TN THT
Cng ty Phng Anh:
Cu trc vn:

Phn tch ti tr sau tn tht khi dng

thu nhp thay i

4.

Bng vn c phn

2,000,000

thu nhp l 10 triu USD

tng trng vi tc 2% / nm
n 20 triu USD, li sut 8%
2 triu c phiu thng c th gi l 56 tr USD
li sut vn c phn l 0.17

TI TR SAU TN THT
Ti tr sau tn tht (Tc tng trng thu nhp g) Ti u t sau tn tht
Trc tn tht

Hai k hoch ti tr ti u t c ngh nh sau:

Ti tr bng n, li sut 8.5%:
li sut vn c phn l 0.18
tc tng trng l 2.5%


Pht hnh c phiu mi:
li sut vn c phn l 0.17
tc tng trng l 2%

Sau tn tht

Bng n

Bng vn c phn

10,000,000

7,000,000

10,000,000

10,000,000

Li

1,600,000

1,600,000

3,300,000

1,600,000

Li tc trc thu

8,400,000

5,400,000

6,700,000

8,400,000

8,400,000

5,400,000

6,700,000

8,400,000

3.35

2.70

EBIT

Thu (0%)
Li tc thun

Ha hon xy ra v thit hi c c lng khong 20 triu USD

Nu khng ti u t: thu nhp d kin ch cn 7 triu USD / nm
tc tng trng c c lng l 2.25%

E 0 (1 + g) i
E0
=
kE g
(1 + k E ) i

EPS

4.20

Li sut mong i ca c ng

0.17

0.18

0.18

Tc tng trng trung bnh

0.02

0.0225

0.025

0.02

28.00

17.14

21.61

18.00

Th gi vn c phn (MVE)

56,000,000

34,285,714

43,225,806

56,000,000

1 c (8%)

20,000,000

20,000,000

20,000,000

20,000,000

Gi mt c phn

2.70

20,000,000

1 mi (8.5%)/C phiu mi
Th gi vn c phn c

56,000,000

34,285,714

43,225,806

S c phiu c
WACC

1,111,111
36,000,000
20,000,000

Th gi vn c phn mi
Th gi Cng ty

0.17

76,000,000

54,285,714

83,225,806

76,000,000

2,000,000

2,000,000

2,000,000

2,000,000

0.1463

0.1432

0.1331

0.1463

TI TR SAU TN THT

TI TR SAU TN THT

5.

Chi ph giao dch v tn tht do gin on

5.

Chi ph giao dch v tn tht do gin on

Cu trc vn hin nay:

Thu nhp trc tn tht:

Mt v ha hon xy ra gy thit hi nghim trng cho cng ty bia BT.

Ban gim c phi xem xt c nn xy dng li nh my khng?
Nu ti u t th ti tr nh th no?
Chi ph ti u t:
xy dng, trang thit b l 30 triu USD
qung co khi phc th phn l 5 triu USD

Cc phng n ti tr: Bo him bi thng 15 triu USD

20 triu cn li c th huy ng bng:
a. Tri phiu: li sut 12%, chi ph pht hnh 0.2 triu, li
sut vn c phn 17%
b. C phiu: li sut mong i 16%, chi ph pht hnh 0.3
triu USD

Gii quyt vn ti u t:
Chi ph ti u t l 35 triu, s to ra dng EBIT sau y
Nm:
0
1
2
3
4

Triu USD:
5
14
14
14
14
Tnh c IRR = 34%

Nu ti u t:

Nu khng ti u t:

20 triu USD n vi li sut 10%

1 triu c phiu, li sut mong i l 15%
15 triu USD

thu nhp nm nay ch cn 5 triu USD

thu nhp cc nm ti l 14 triu USD
cng ty khng cn thu nhp v b thanh l

TI TR TRC TN THT
BNG BO HIM

TI TR SAU TN THT
Cc phng n ti tr sau tn tht
Bng n
Bng vn c phn
1m tn tht
1m tn tht
(t = 0)
1m k tip
(t = 0)
1m k tip
5,000,000
2,000,000
2,400,000

14,000,000
2,000,000
2,400,000

Chi ph ti tr
Li tc trc thu
S c phiu c
S c phiu mi

200,000
400,000
1,000,000

9,600,000
1,000,000

Tng s c phiu
Li sut mong i ca c ng

1,000,000
0.17

EBIT
Li n c (10%)
Li n mi (12%)

1,000,000
0.17
56,470,588

5,000,000
2,000,000

14,000,000
2,000,000

300,000
2,700,000
1,000,000
422,340

12,000,000
1,000,000
422,340

1,422,340
0.16

Th gi vn c phn (MVET)
Gi mt c phn

48,665,460
48.665

67,355,172
47.355

Th gi vn c phn c (MVEo)

48,665,460

47,355,172

nh hng ca bo him ln th gi
vn c phn: phn tch sau tn tht
2. Phn tch (trc tn tht) bo him
1.

1,422,340
0.16
75,000,000

TI TR TRC TN THT
BNG BO HIM

TI TR TRC TN THT
BNG BO HIM

1. nh

hng ca bo him ln th gi vn c phn: phn tch

sau tn tht

Cty Trn Quang c cu trc vn:

Tn tht 2 triu.
Thu nhp nm nay gim 50%
C th khng nh hng lu di, hay
Ch c th khi phc ti a 75% thu nhp trc tn tht

Thu nhp:
1 triu

Li sut vn c phn l 10% v khng b nh hng bi tn tht

Tt c cc tn tht u c bo him bi thng y

Ha hon:

N: 0
Vn c phn: 250,000 c phiu

Phn tch (sau tn tht) bo him

Trc tn tht Sau tn tht (1ht thi)
1m 1
EBIT

1,000,000

500,000

1m 2,3
1,000,000

500,000

Bo him bi thng

Sau tn tht (Lu di)

1m 1
500,000

1m 2,3
750,000

500,000

1,000,000

1,000,000

1,000,000

1,000,000

750,000

250,000

250,000

250,000

250,000

250,000

EPS

4.00

4.00

4.00

4.00

3.00

Li sut mong i ca c ng

0.10

0.10

0.10

0.10

0.10

40.00

40.00

30.91

10,000,000

10,000,000

7,727,273

Thu nhp sn c phn phi

S c phiu

Gi mt c phn
Th gi vn c phn

TI TR TRC TN THT
BNG BO HIM
2.

TI TR TRC TN THT
BNG BO HIM

Phn tch (trc tn tht) bo him

cng ty u t K USD to ra mt dng thu nhp

hng nm l E. u t tng thm gi tr cho cng ty
khi

E
E
=
(1 + k ) i k

K l u t ban u
E l thu nhp hng nm
k l chi ph vn

Cng ty Tuyt Trn c lng gi tr nh xng, tn kho, thit

b v cc ti sn khc l 30 triu USD
N = 0
Vn c phn: 1 triu c phiu thng, li sut mong i: 10%
Tn tht trung bnh t cc ri ro c bo him l 0.6 triu
Bi thng y , ph bo him P = 0.65 triu
Ti tr bng n, li sut 10%, li sut vn c phn l 10.5%
Thu nhp: 5 triu
li sut u t l 16.7% (= 5 / 30)
Tn tht thu nhp trung bnh l
EL = rFG * LK = 0.2*0.6 = 0.12 triu

TI TR TRC TN THT
BNG BO HIM

TI TR TRC TN THT
BNG BO HIM

Phn tch (trc tn tht) bo him

bo him
ti u t
Thu nhp mong i (E1)

5,000,000

1m 1
5,000,000

5,000,000

Khng ti u t
5,000,000

Thu nhp mong i (E1)

60,000

5,000,000

Bo him
1m 1
5,000,000

1m 2,3
5,000,000

Tn tht thu nhp trung bnh (EL)

650,000

5,000,000
60,000

Tin li

120,000

Ph bo him (P)

Khng bo him

1m 2,3

Tin li (10%)
Tn tht thu nhp trung bnh (EL)

Cng ty Tuyt Trn: nh hng ca bo him ln chi ph vn

Ti tr (sau tn tht)
bng n

Bo him

120,000
650,000

Ph bo him (P)

Thu nhp phn phi (E)

4,880,000

4,350,000

5,000,000

4,940,000

Thu nhp sn c phn phi (E)

4,880,000

4,350,000

5,000,000

4,940,000

S c phiu

1,000,000

1,000,000

1,000,000

1,000,000

S c phiu

1,000,000

1,000,000

1,000,000

1,000,000

EPS

4.88

4.35

5.00

4.940

EPS

4.88

4.35

5.00

4.94

Li sut mong i ca c ng

0.10

0.10

0.10

0.10

0.105

Li sut mong i ca c ng

0.10

0.09

0.09

0.105

48.80

49.80

50.00

49.40

47.048

48.80

55.32

55.56

48,800,000

55,318,400

Gi mt c phn
Th gi vn c phn

48,800,000 49,804,545

49,400,000 47,048,000

Gi mt c phn
Th gi vn c phn

TI TR TRC TN THT
BNG NGUN QU CNG TY
Cc vn lin quan n vic dng
qu gi li
2. Qu gi li khi cc ngun ti tr khc
khng c chi ph giao dch
3. Qu gi li khi cc ngun ti tr khc
c chi ph giao dch
1.

47.05
47,047,600

TI TR TRC TN THT
BNG NGUN QU CNG TY
1.

Cc vn lin quan n vic dng qu gi li

Cng ty Nh c ph bo him mi nm l 1.5 triu

Ti tr bng qu gi li: trch hng nm s tin 1.2 triu
thiu th huy ng thm n, 8%
thiu ht trung bnh l 0.4 triu
chi ph giao dch l 0.05 triu
li sut ca qu gi li l 6%
Chi ph vn c phn:
ti tr bng bo him, 10%
ti tr bng n / qu gi li, 10.5%
EN
12 triu
S c phiu hin hnh 2 triu
N hin ti
0

TI TR TRC TN THT
BNG NGUN QU CNG TY

TI TR TRC TN THT
BNG NGUN QU CNG TY

Cng ty 1h : Qu gi li cha hon thin

Cng ty 1h : Qu gi li hon thin

Ti tr bng bo him

T ti tr

T ti tr (c sn 4 tr)

1m nay Cc nm ti 1m nay Cc nm ti
12.00
12.00
12.00
12.00
1.50

E1
Ph bo him

1.20
0.032
0.05

ng gp vo qu gi li
Tin li trn phn tn tht vt qu
Chi ph giao dch

Thu nhp dng phn phi (E)

S c phiu (m)
EPS (E/m)
Li sut mong i ca c ng (kE)

10.50
2,000,000
$5.25
0.10

2,000,000 2,000,000
$6.00
$5.395
0.10
0.105

2,000,000
$5.984
0.105

Gi mt c phn

$59.80

Th gi vn c phn (MVE)

119.60

$60.00

$56.97
113.94

TI TR TRC TN THT
BNG NGUN QU CNG TY
2.

Qu gi li khi cc ngun ti tr khc

khng c chi ph giao dch

Tin li trn phn tn tht vt qu

0.008

11.992
2,000,000
$5.996
0.105

Gi mt c phn

$56.68

$57.10

Th gi vn c phn (MVE)

113.36

S c phiu (m)
EPS (E/m)
Li sut mong i ca c ng (kE)

TI TR TRC TN THT
BNG NGUN QU CNG TY
3.

Qu gi li khi cc ngun ti tr khc c chi

ph giao dch

Nu li nhun vt qu chi ph th qu gi li s
tng thm gi tr cho cng ty
Quyt nh ny c lp hon ton vi tn tht ca
cng ty
Chi ph c hi khi thnh lp v duy tr qu gi li
Qu gi li khng bo v cng ty khi b cc tn
tht
Bo him bo v cng ty khng b thit hi gi tr
khi tn tht xy ra

Bo him ton phn v bo him bn

phn
2. Phn tch quyt nh

1.20
0.008

2,000,000
$5.532
0.105

Thu nhp dng phn phi (E)

CC CHIN LC
TI TR HN HP
1.

Cc nm ti
12.00

0.04
0.312
11.064

Tin li trn qu gi li

$56.99

12.00

Ph bo him

Chi ph giao dch

11.968

12.00

E1

ng gp vo qu gi li

0.032

0.072
10.790

Tin li trn qu gi li

1m nay

Ti tr tn tht da trn cc tiu ch ti chnh ca

ti u t v hn ch tn tht do gin on
Tnh thanh khon cao
li sut u t
thp
Qu gi li cng ln, gim kh nng huy ng,
gim chi ph giao dch. Cn cn i gia li ch
ny v ph c hi ca vic duy tr qu
Gii quyt cc tn tht va khng th ti tr bng
ngn lu thng xuyn. Cc tn tht ln nn
c ti tr t cc ngun bn ngoi vi chi ph
giao dch chp nhn c

CC CHIN LC
TI TR HN HP

Bo him cc tn tht ln v gi li cc tn
tht nh thng xuyn
Bo him rt tn km nn cng ty cn cn
i chi ph v li ch ca bo him
S nh i gia chi ph v li ch ca s
bo v a n cc mc trung gian ca bo
v bng bo him

CC CHIN LC
TI TR HN HP
1.

THIT K HP NG BO HIM
Gia tr tai san ban au: 260 tr
Ph bao hiem = Tien boi thng trung bnh *150%

Bo him ton phn v bo him bn

phn

Xac suat Ton that

Hn ch ca bo him ton phn: Gi tr

thc bng tin (actual cash value ACV) ca
tn tht khng tng ng vi tn tht kinh
t m nhng ngi ch cng ty phi chu

Cc hnh thc bo him bn phn:

200

215

0.1

20

20

200

195

0.2

40

40

200

20

195

0.1

100

100

200

80

195

0.1

200

200

200

180

195

40

40

200

30

205

GTTB

Xac suat Ton that

Gim tr (Deductibles)
ng bo him (Coinsurance)
Cc gii hn ca hp ng (Policy limits)

Tn tht
6,000
23,000
62,000
Tng bi thng

75% Coinsurance
100 tr Upper-limit
Tien boi thng Tai san Tien boi thng Tai san

0.5

215

215

0.1

20

15

210

20

215

0.2

40

30

205

40

215

0.1
0.1

100
200

75
150

190
165

100
100

215
115

40

30

205

30

205

GTTB

Gim tr (Deductibles)

Bao hiem toan phan

20 tr Deductible
Tien boi thng Tai san Tien boi thng Tai san

0.5

Gim tr (Deductibles)

Bi thng theo hp ng gim tr $10,000

Gim tr tng tn tht
Gim tr theo tch ly
6,000 10,000 =
0
6,000
23,000 10,000 =
13,000 23,000
62,000 10,000 =
52,000 62,000
65,000 91,000 10,000 = 81,000

Trnh cc chi ph dn xp ln mt cch khng tng

xng i vi cc tn tht nh
Cc tn tht nh thng pht sinh u n, c th
gii quyt da trn k hoch ngn lu ca cng ty
Gi li cc tn tht nh, thng xuyn khng lm
cho cng ty b ri ro ng k
Khc phc tnh trng mo him do thiu trch nhim

Cc gii hn ca hp ng
(Policy limits)

ng bo him (Coinsurance)
Chi tra toi a = Ton that x

phan c bao hiem

ACV cua tai san x t le ong bao hiem

Ba ngi b tn thng trong mt tai nn do s bt

cn ca ngi c mua bo him

Thit hi ca h l $30,000, $40,000, v $14,000

Hp ng bo him c gii hn l $50,000 cho mi
ln xy ra tai nn, v bi thng cho mi c nhn
khng qu $20,000

Nn nhn A
Nn nhn B
Nn nhn C
Tng
Vi gii hn

c bo him
20,000
20,000
14,000
54,000
50,000

Khng c bo him
10,000
20,000
_
30,000

Tng thit hi
30,000
40,000
14,000
84,000

Cc gii hn ca hp ng
(Policy limits)

Cc gii hn ca hp ng
(Policy limits)

Gii hn tch ly trn tt c cc chi tr bn

cnh gii hn cho mi ln xy ra tn tht

Cc gii hn khng hp dn cc cng ty v:

Tn tht gi li l v hn v khng th iu chnh

bng k hoch ngn lu
Tn tht khng c bo him nm phn ui
ca phn phi, kh c lng v cc tn tht ny t
xy ra

Thng do bn bo him t ra ch khng

phi do cng ty mua bo him

CC CHIN LC
TI TR HN HP
2.

Phn tch quyt nh

Tn tht ca Cty Phng l $500,000 c th xy ra vo 6

thng sau
Ti tr bng:
bo him ton phn, ph bo him l $650,000
n khi tn tht xy ra vi li sut l 9%
bo him c gim tr $200,000, ph bo him l $450,000
tn tht trung bnh l $150,000
tn tht gi li c ti tr bng n li sut 9%
Li sut phi ri ro l 8%
Li sut ca th trng l 13%
Ri ro h thng ca tn tht l 0.3

CC CHIN LC
TI TR HN HP
So snh ph bo him v hin gi c iu chnh
ri ro ca dng chi ph ti tr ra quyt nh

CC CHIN LC
TI TR HN HP
E(rRM ) = rf + RM[E(rm ) rf ] = 0.08 + 0.3(0.13 0.08) = 0.095

Chi ph ti tr bng n:
45,000
45,000
45,000
45,000
45,000
500,000
+
+
+
+
+
= $519,964
1 + 0.08 (1 + 0.08) 2 (1 + 0.08) 3 (1 + 0.08) 4 (1 + 0.08)5 (1 + 0.08) 5
519,964
RAPVDebt =
= $496,386
1 + 0.0475
D=

Chi ph ti tr bng bo him c gim tr $200,000:

13,500
13,500
13,500
13,500
13,500
150 ,000
+
+
+
+
+
= $ 155,989
1 + 0.08 (1 + 0.08 ) 2 (1 + 0.08 ) 3 (1 + 0 .08 ) 4 (1 + 0 .08 ) 5 (1 + 0 .08 ) 5
155,989
Chi ph = RAPV Debt + 450 ,000 =
+ 450 ,000 = $598 ,916
1 + 0.0475
D=

Chi ph ti tr bng bo him ton phn: $650,000

GI LI HAY CHUYN GIAO?

Gi li: Ngoi d tnh C k hoch
Chuyn giao ti tr: Bo him Phi bo him
So snh cc bin php: Trung ha Bo him

1.
2.
3.

Gi li

M hnh nh gi khng c chi ph giao dch

cov[L, rm ]
E( L) [E (rm ) rf ]

2
m

P[E (L)] <

1 + rf

M hnh nh gi c chi ph giao dch

cov[(L + C), rm ]
E(L + C) [E(rm ) rf ]

2m

P[E(L)] <
1 + rf

Cc yu t cn xem xt:

4.

Gii hn ca chuyn giao

Mc kim sot
Ph cho bo him
Gi tr c t bo him
Chi ph c hi
Thu
Bt buc phi gi li