Models and techniques of manpower demand and supply forecasting
Presented by, Anuraj k

Ma npowe r Pla nnin g

The development of strategies to match the supply of workers to the availability of jobs at organizational, regional, or national level. Manpower planning involves reviewing current manpower resources, forecasting future requirements and availability, and taking steps to ensure that the supply of people and skills meets demand. A more current term for manpower planning at organizational level is human resource planning.

Demand Forecasting

It is the process of estimating the requirement of different kinds of personnel in future The basis of manpower forecasts should be the annual budget and long term corporate plan translated into activity levels for each function an department

Techniques of Demand Forecasting

Managerial Judgment Work Study Technique Statistical Techniques Delphi Technique Computer Analysis

Managerial Judgement
 

The most typical method for smaller company In this method the managers simply sit down, think about their future work load and how many people they need It adopt both the ‘bottom-up' and ‘top-down’ approach.

Work Study Technique

It is technique can be used when it is possible to apply work measurement to know how long operations should take and the amount of labour required. It calculated in two type
 Work-load Analysis  Work-force Analysis

Work-load Analysis

In work load analysis the manpower expert need to find out sales forecasts, work schedules and thus determine the manpower required per unit of product.

Work-force Analysis  In work-force analysis they keep a sufficient margin for absenteeism,labour turn over and idle time on the basis of past experience

Statistical Techniques
 It

is the technique of using high speed computers and new mathematical techniques  The main statistical tools are
 Ratios and Trend analysis  Regression analysis  Bureks-smith model

Ratios and Trend analysis

 

Ratios, which are calculated for the basis of past data relating to number of employees The data are collected in different levels Future manpower requirement is calculated on the basis of established ratios The value depend upon accurate records and realistic estimate of future activity levels and the effect of improved performance

Regression Analysis

The technique is used to estimate the manpower requirement of an organization's at a future point of time It used when dependent and independent variables are functionally related to each other

Bureks-Smith Model

In this method a mathematical model developed for personnel forecasting En = (Lagg+G)1/x Y
En – it is estimated level of personnel demand in n planning period. Lagg- it is overall turnover or aggregate level of current business activity n rupees. G- is the total growth in business activity anticipated through period n in terms of rupees. X-it is the average productivity improvement Y-is conversion figure relating today’s overall activity

    

Delp hi Technique

The objective of the Delphi technique is to predict future situations by integrating the independent opinions of experts A major goal of the Delphi technique is to avoid direct confrontation of experts, since some individuals may be unduly influenced by others because of status differences, resulting in compromise of good ideas

Computer Analysis

MANPLAN was developed by General Electric" to overcome human resource modeling problems (such as the overwhelming mathematical complexity that can be brought into such planning efforts).       One final merit of MANPLAN is that running the computer model is relatively inexpensive.

This computer program needs for its forecast, asking such questions as: 1.   How many different product lines do you manufacture? 2.   How many months does your forecast cover? Once these questions are answered and fed into the computer, the computer can produce a forecast estimating average human resource levels required to meet product demand.  MANPLAN also provides for ranges of possible human resource needs for any period


.  The process of human resource planning is closely related to other personnel functions, such as selection, training and development, and performance evaluation. In order to make effective planning decisions, managers must first be able to forecast what their human resource needs will be.  We have discussed a number of techniques that firms can utilize in forecasting their demand for human resources.

 T.N.Chhabra, Human Resource

Management  Biswanath Ghosh, Human Resources Development and Management


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