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Do Regulations and Ownership Affect Performance and Stability?, 2
Prudential Supervision, Frederick S. Mishkin, National Bueau of Economic Research, . 60-77.
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Kaminsky Reinhart (1999) 19 1980 . The Twin Crises: The Causes
of Banking and Balance of Payments Problems, Graciela L. Kaminsky Carmen M.
Reinhart, American Economic Review, 89, 3, 1999, . 473-500.
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Jeffrey Frankel (1999, ) No Single Currency Regime Is Right For All Countries At All
Times, Princeton Essays in International Finance No 215.
13
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the Funds record is probably no worse than most others, dismal as that is.7
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1.2 .................................................... 5
1.3 ......................................................................... 18
1.4 , ......................................................... 21
1.5 ........................................................................................................... 27
............................................... 1
1.1 ................................................................................................................. 1
1.1. ............ 1
1.2. & .......................................................................... 2
1.3. .............................................................. 3
1.2 .................................................... 5
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1.1. .......................................... 7
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1.4. .............................................. 7
1.5. ; ............................... 8
1.6. ......................................................... 8
1.7. ................................................................. 9
1.8. : ........................ 9
1.9. 1990 ...... 10
1.10. 2001 .............................................. 10
1.11. , 1980 1996 ........................................................ 11
1.12. ........................................... 12
1.13. .......................................................................... 13
1.14. 1995 .............................................................. 14
1.15. () 2001 ............................................ 14
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1.16. ........................... 16
1.7.
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1.18. ; ........................................................ 17
1.3 ......................................................................... 18
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1.19. ..................................................... 19
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1.20. Tell-Our-Mom Test Test ..................... 20
1.4 , ......................................................... 21
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........................................................................................................... 23
1.2. ................................................. 24
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1.5 ........................................................................................................... 27
28
, 2
2

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To achieve the objectives set by the Treaty on European Union, and more specifically Economic and Monetary Union, we need high-quality statistical instruments
which provide the Community institutions, governments and economic and social
operators with a set of harmonized and reliable statistics on which to base their
decisions.
( European System of Accounts ESA 1995
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Taking the Pulse of the Economy: Measuring GDP, by J. Steven Landefeld, Eugene P.
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.
:
, ,
.
.
. ,
(..., , , , , , ),
G-7, 2005 70% (...) 55% (). , : 80%
.
2.4. [% ] 1960 2005, , ...,

85
80
75
70
65
...
60
55
50
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
: International Financial Statistics.
. ,
2000 .
. , : ,
14
, 2

, . .
,
. . , ,

- . .
: , , . 2009.
, 2010,
. , 2009 , 2010. , ,
2009, 2010.
2.1. ,

.
2.1.
Utopia 2009 ( 2),
2010 ( 3) 2009 ,
2010 ( 4 5).
,
. , : 1 +1
, 0.
2009, , 1%.
: 2009
&
2009
2010
: 2010

1
100
102,5
101,5
103,5
=70
=71,5
=71,5
=71,5
+20
+22
+22
+22
+1
+15
+15
+15
+15
+20
+21
+21
+21
25
27
27
27
, .
, 2010 2,5%.
2010, 102,2, 2009, 100.
2,5%
2009 2010.
1 , 1,5%
( = [ 101,5 100 ] / 100 ), :
2010 2009,
-
15
, 2
. .
, , 2 , 3,5% ( = [ 103,5 100 ] / 100 ), : .
, .

. , ,
, ,

.
.
, , 2005 100% : ,
. , , , , , , .
, , NX = X IM, . , 3% ,
.
2.5. -

...
.
-, 20% ,
... ( 11% , 15%) (11% 10%, ). , ... .
;
2000
[% ]
[% ]
20
20
15
15
10
10
...
...
- . , ..., , -
. ,
, 13.41% -, 1.88%. , ... .

( 1995-1999)

...
18.27
13.41
6.65
17.22
13.83
5.84
16
, 2
3.61
3.93
1.88
2.49
6.70
4.28
4.00
3.22
___________________________________________
: ECB Montlhly Bulletin, 2000, . 53.
-
2.1 .
. , .
, , ,
, , . ,
, :
, , , . , ,
. ,
( 2.4 2.5).
, ,
2.1.
.
. , . .
,
, ,
.
, ,
, .
. ,
, . , ,
, , . ,
, , .
,
,
. t zt. , t yt
xt. yt = ( 1 + zt )xt. t+1
yt+1 = ( 1 + zt+1 )xt+1. ,
z+1 = zt, o .
2.6.
1/3 . 2002-03
The Size of the Shadow Economies of 145 Countries All Over the World: First Results Over the
Period 1999 to 2003, by Friedrich Schneider, IZA DP No. 1431, 2004.

. (-
17
, 2
, , ), .
, 28,2% ,
25,7%. 22%, 21,9%, 21,0%.
..., 8,4%, 9,4% 10,9%.
- 16,3%.
, 30,8% , , 40,1%, , 43,2%,
, 43,4%.
. 1987, 17%.
.. .
, ,
.

25% 2006. . , ,
.

,
3% , Maastricht. Financial Times 29 2006 : Oldest
profession helps boost Greek national output by 25%.
.

. , ,
.
, ,
.
, 2005 2007,
2005,
. 2007
2008 2006.
2.1.

. , . , , , , .
, , , , , .
...
. Bureau of Economic
Analysis, ,
, advance report, 30 . , ,
.
18
, 2
3
, Croushore Stark (2000),

2000, 31 2000,
27 . 25 , 29 28
2000. 2000 , .
. 3 ... 1977 5.2% 1977.
, 7.5% 7.3%
1978 8.9% .
. , 2008
2000 2007 .
- ECB Monthly Bulletin
2001 (. 25-27) 2003 (. 47). 1999
2001, -
0,8%, 0,2%, 25% . , Bulletin 2006 (Box 8. The Reliability of Euro AREA GDP Growth and Its Components .
62 64).
, , , . .
. -
.
, , .
. , . ,
. ,
.
. 25 ,
1,5% ( 70 ).
, , , ,
.
. , , , , .
,
. , , - 2006 2,5%,
. , , , 0,6% .4
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Data Bank: A Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review, September/October
2000, . 18.
4
Box 4. Seasonal and Calendar Effects of Euro Area GDP, ECB Monthly Bulletin, August
2006, pp. 45 47.
19
, 2
3.1 .5
2.3
2.3 ,
, ,
. , , ,
. , GDP = GNP. ,
, GNP .
, , GDP GNP .
,
GNP GDP. FA Foreign Assets, , FL Foreign Liabilities.
.
, .
. , .
. 2.2
.
,

.
Balance of Payments Manual (5 )
(www.imf.org). .
, 2.2

, . :

/
, .
, ,
, .
, .6
, Manual.
Seasonal Adjustment (
2003).
6
. , , . , , , .
20
, 2
2.2. ,

&

&
&

&
. , ,
.
,
, .
. :
. Microsoft :
. .
.
,
. :

.
.
.
. , :
.

- , ,

.
2.3 13 17. ,
XXI. Reserve Assets Balance of Payments Manual.
,
- :
: ..., , , -
, .
-
21 .
, 2
. .
. .
.
, .
,

-
. ,
.
. ,
,
.

. ,
. .
, , . , ,
.
.

. , ,
. , - .
- .
hot flows
.

,
.
(, , ) , . hot flows.
.
Official flows. . ,
.
,
Official Flows. ,
100 . ,
official.
,
non-official.
, , .
,
.
2.5.
22
, 2
2.5.

. (=++)
. (=++)
)
&

)
&
. (= )
= +
=
-
. -
, - .
NAP Net Asset Position.

& &

&

&

NAP = FA FL
(2.3)
.
, , . , , . ,
,
23
, 2
. ,
.
,

, - , , NAP > 0, .

, NAP < 0, . ,
,
.
.
2.7.
. 2005,
-150 , 75% .
2005 , . 9 75% .
, ,
, 130.094 ,
279.281 ..
2.5, , .
2005
[ .]
[ .]

130.094
279.281
59.319
) :
11.530
) :
24.743
83.212
)
)
)
171.326
1.945
559
56.741
149.187
= 130.094 =
= +
: , 2007.
,
. , 2000 43,9% 83,3% 2006 93,7% 2007.
. ,
. ( NFI
Net Factor Income).
, FR Factor Receipts, ( 3
2.2) .
, , FP Factor Payments, ( 3 2.2) .
24
, 2
,
NFI = FR FP
(2.4)

GNP GDP.
=
+

GNP = GDP + NFI
(2.5)
GDP GNP 2.6. ,

, .
2.6. &

(Y)
=
= (C)
+ (I)
+ (G)
+ (X)
(IM)
&
&
(NFI)
(CA)
(NX)
2.8.
, , ,
, .

. .

=

+
=

+
+
+
+
=
&
=
25
, 2
.

.
( ).
.
. , ,
/ .
,
.
,

.
, , . , .
.

:
,
.
, , 2.7. . .
2.7.

& ,
CA
CF
. ( CA Current Account.)
:
2.6, o
. ( = ) .
, ,
2.3.
26
, 2
2.3.
= &
NX
NFI
+
=
CA
. , ,
, ,
,
.
, . ,
,
. , , .
Balance of Payments Manual . , . ,
, .
, ,
+
+
=
, .
. ,
CA = NX + NFI
(2.6)
. .
.
.
, (2.1), , (2.2) (2.6),
GNP GDP, (2.5),
GNP = GDP + NFI

= {C + I + X + NX } + NFI
= {C + I + G} + {NX + NFI } = DD + CA
14243 14243
DD
CA
(2.7)
27
, 2
>

.
.
CA < 0 C + I + G > GNP DD > GNP
<
,
. .
CA > 0 C + I + G < GNP DD < GNP

; , , .
, .
, . , 2.9, , ,
2.9.
2010 Utopia GNP = NV100 . DD = NV105 ., NV NoValue. (2.7) 2010 Utopia
NV5 ..
CA = GNP DD = NV100 NV105 = NV 5
. , 2.4.
2010
DD = C + I + G_
105 = 80 + 10 + 15
105 = 60 + 30 + 15
, 80
, 30 .
, . . ,
,
.
Utopia.
,
.
, 110 2011, , , . . .
, NV2. .
2011
DD = C + I + G_
108 = 63 + 30 + 15
, ,
,
.
28
, 2
, , 2.13.
. ( CF Capital
Flows.) .

, , .

2.5.
. ,
,
, , . ,
. ,
: , ,
.

.

2.5 2.3 .
:

.
. ( BP Balance of Payments, -
). . , CA, , CF.
= +
BP = CA + CF
(2.8)

( ) . , ( ).
2.2 .
2.2. BP > 0
,

, ,
. ,
,
.
.
29
: () =
()

...
, 2

: 50
: 10
: 60
NX = 50 60 = 10
: 15
NFI = 10 15 = 5
CA = NX + NFI = 15

: 100

= 50 + 10 + 100 = 160

: 80
CF = 100 80 = 20

= 60 + 15 + 80 = 155
BP = CA + CF
= -15 + 20 = 5
( ) ( ) = 160 155 = 5 = BP
, , .
, , .
,
BP , .
14 16,
Mundell Fleming.
,
(pure float), , . ,
, .

.
2.4
.
CA:
,

CA
. ,
, .
, ,
2.9, , . , ,
CA :
.
.
30
, 2
, :
, . .
2.5,

.

. ,
.
,
, ( ). , . ,
,
.
2.3.
Utopia 2010 :
Utopia 2010
. (=++)
10 . (=++)
4
0
4
0
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

. (=)
0
8=10-2
, 2010
4 NV, 6 NV. , 10 NV.
, Utopia
2 NV. .
, , 8 NV (= 10 NV 2
NV).
: 2010 5 NV.
Utopia 2011
. , .
31
CA < 0
CF > 0
, 2
1: .
Utopia 2011
. (=++)
5=4+1 . (=++)
)

)
4
0
4
6-5=1
2
2
0
. (=) 3=5-2
5, 6 1.
5 , 10 5.
, , 8 3.
2: .
Utopia 2011
. (=++)
10 . (=++)
4
0
4
0
)
. (=)
7
7=2+5
2
0
5
0
3=10-7
, ,
5 . , 8 3.
3: 1 NV,
2 NV 3 NV. 1 NV .
Utopia 2011
. (=++)
)

)

)
9=2+7 . (=++)
6=5+1
2
0
4-2=2
0
5=2+3
2
0
3
0
0
7=6+1
)

)

1
1
. (=)
3=9-6
, 2, 4 2,
1, 6 7. 1,
10 9.
, 3, 0
3, 1, 0 1. ,
32
, 2
3, 2 5, 1, 0 1.
4, 2 6.
5.
, , , ,

.
, .
, . , .
. , , .
, , . ,
, , , .
, , , 3 ,
.
.
, , ,
.
, 13 17.
,
FA , , FA , . , , .
,
CA < 0 FA FA = NAP
, .
,
. .
, . (=
) ,
.
.
,
NAPt +1 = NAPt + CAt
(2.9)
NAPt +1 = NAPt +1 NAPt = CAt
(2.9)
t , NAPt
t CAt t.
,
33
, 2
2.10. :
, 2004 . . ,
! ; ( , , 9 2008).
.
1980.
[$ ]
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
. 1998 .
. 2006, $30 , 13,8% .
, 10 $3.000 . , $100
1986, $13,8 .
, , 2.7, .

, 2006 $44,3 . ,
.
. ,
. , 1990,
.
, $19,4 2006, , .
.
.
, ,
, .
, .
1990
. , , .
...
.
,
: , ,
34
, 2
, , , .
,
. 13 17.
,
, , 1990. . .
.
,
.
, ,
.
:
,

. .
2.11.
2.11.
.
,
, : , .
, CA > 0, , NAP ,
.
, , CA < 0, , NAP , .
&
CA>0
NAP
CA<0
2.2, . ,
, I, . , .

. .
2.12.
35
, 2
...
1980 ,
.
2006, 20% .
, $2,54 . !
, $788 2006. ... 2006 , ,
.
, , ,
.
... , 1980 2006
(% )
45
$1,81
30
15
0
$2,54
-15
-30
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
(% )
$170
2
0
-2
-4
$788
-6
1980
1985
1990
J
1995
J
2000
2005
...
1980, -
... .... ,
, .... , ,
, .
, , : , , .
, ! ... 1980 : , , .
, 1980 , : . Economist
Trading Places 25 1999, Step aside, Japan: China has taken over as economic
enemy number one. The crime: Americas trade deficit with China is bigger than with any other
country.
, , .
, .

The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries Philip R. Lane Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti (2001),
Journal of International Economics, Vol. 55, 2001, pp. 263-294.
36
, 2
.

, , .
, ,
, , , ,
, . , , .

. .
. ,
, , . .
BP = CA + CF BP < 0 ,

. ,
. ,
CA<0
BP = CA + CF 0 CF C
.
. CF, 2.5. . , , .
, . ,
. 1
2.3,
.
. ,
. , . ,
. , . .
, , , . , ,
: ,
, . , -
37

CA<0
, 2

. ,
CA < 0 NAP

, , , , , ,
.
, , :
.
, .
, , . ,

. , ,
. .
, . 2.4
.
2.4.
, .
, 3.4
3.5,
.
, , ,
.
Utopia, NoValue, t = 1
.
.
FA1 = FL1 = 0 NFI1 = 0 & NAP1 = 0
, , ,
IM1 = 120 NV X1 = 100 NV.
IM1 = 120 & X1 = 100 NX1 = 20
NX1 = -20 & NFI1 = 0 CA1 = 20
, , ,
. , 1% NoValue
1% 1% .
t = 1 .
, z%, :
X = zX1, () IM = zIM1.
38
, 2
t = 1.
,
X1 1 = | CA1| zX1 (zIM1) = | CA1| z100 + z120 = 20 z = 0,0909 [9,09%]
9,09% t = 1
, .
, , i = 0,10 (10%). , .
. , :
NFIt = i*FLt
CAt = Xt IMt + NFIt
FLt+1 = FLt + CAt
CA < 0
FL
IM
NFI
CA
z [%]
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0,00
0,1
100
120
0,00
-20,00
9,09
-20,00
0,1
100
120
-2,00
-22,00
10,00
-42,00
0,1
100
120
-4,20
-24,20
11,00
-66,20
0,1
100
120
-6,62
-26,62
12,10
-92,82
0,1
100
120
-9,28
-29,28
13,31
-122,10
0,1
100
120
-12,21
-32,21
14,64
-154,31
0,1
100
120
-15,43
-35,43
16,11
-189,74
0,1
100
120
-18,97
-38,97
17,72
-228,72
0,1
100
120
-22,87
-42,87
19,49
-271,59
0,1
100
120
-27,16
-47,16
21,44
,
.
:
, FL , , NFI ,
, CA .
, 10 , 21,44%, 9,09% 1 .

.
, , :

. . .

,
. 17.4
.
, , .
, : -
-. -
. ,
, .
, , . -
39
, 2
, 13 .

.
2.5

. . , :
, .
, SP Private Saving,
, YD Disposable Income, .
S P = YD C
(2.10)
o, GNP, , TR
TRansfers, ,
INT INTerest, , TA
TAxes.
, , , ,
2.8.

+ +
YD = GNP + TR + INT TA
(2.11)
, SG Government Saving,
. , . ,
, G, , TR,
, INT. , Sg < 0, , . , , , , , INT, .
,
=
=
40
, 2
=

+
+
S G = Y G TR INT
(2.12)
, SN National Savings, .
=
+
S N = S P + SG
(2.13)
(2.1) (2.5) .
= +

S N = I + CA
(2.14)
S P + S G = I + CA
(2.14)
.
, . .
CA < 0 I > SN
, (2.5) , DD >
GNP.

. 2.13.
2.13.

CA < 0 C + I + G > GNP,
.
-
, , .
CA < 0 I > S
, , ;
41
, 2
, , , , .
1
2
CA = S I
5 = 10 15
5 = 30 35
, 15 , 10. .
, 35 . , , . .
, , .
CA > 0 I < S
.
.
1980. , 1990
. 5.13 , 1999 2005.
,
: , . , , .
CA > 0 I < SN
.
, .
2.5. : CA < 0 CF > 0
, Acadia Utopia, ,
, NoValue ( NV). /
/ ,
.
, , Acadia -5 NV, CAACADIA = -5 NV. H Utopia
CAUTOPIA = +5 NV.
Acadia 5 NVs ,
Utopia .
, , . . ,
.
Utopia Acadia , , Acadia.
, , .
Utopia, 2.5, 5 NV . Acadia,
.
5 NV Acadia Utopia. ,
CAACADIA = -5 NV CFACADIA = +5 NV
42
, 2
CAUTOPIA = +5 NV CFUTOPIA = -5 NV
Utopia Acadia.
,

. , () .
, (14) , , ,
. , SG < 0,
, CA < 0. , SG , , CA :
SP + SG = + CA
, !
.
, , !
SG ( 10). (13), . , , ,
. .
. ,
.
. ,
( [2.9]). ,
, . ,
, , ,
. 2.4.
, , . .
, , ,
-. , .
. 20% , 3 4%.
( ),
. .
2.8 .
43
, 2
2.8.
,
Feldstein Horioka Puzzle

, . ,
, . .
14.5 .
, , ,
2.12. , , . , ..., .
,
, 2000 ( 13.1), ...
( 17.9 CA < 0 ... ;).

.
,
,

( 19).
.
, - ,
. 2005 14.6% .
1980,
2.4, 25% .
2.9. [% ], 1986 2005
,
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
, , .
.
44
, 2
.

,

:
..., , , ,
, ,

,
,

-

Gross Domestic Product

Gross National Product
Inventory (or Stocks), Change in
Saving
National
Private
Government
Disposable Income
Net Asset Position
, GDP
GNP
S
Sp
Sg
YD
NAP
Foreign Direct Investment

Financial Investments
Portfolio Investments
Foreign Exchange Reserves
Foreign Assets
Foreign Liabilities
FA
FL
Final Domestic Demand

Imports of Goods and Services
Exports of Goods and Services
Fixed Investment, Gross
Construction
Equipment
Seasonal Adjustment
DD
IM
X
I
G-7
Trade Balance
Net Factor Income
Capital Flows
Balance of Payments
Current Account
Government Consumption
Private Consumption
Durables
Non-Durables
Services
Government Transfers
Unilateral Transfers
Economic Policy
Fiscal
Monetary
Foreign Exchange
Value Added
Interest
Taxes
NX
NFI
CF
BP
CA
G
C
TR
INT
TA
45
, 2
............................................................ 1
2.1 ............................................................................................................................... 1
2.2 ............................................................................................ 3
..........................................................................................................4
2.1. ........................................................................................ 5
2.2. ................................... 5
2.3. ............................... 6
2.1. ......................................................................................... 8
...........................................................................................................9
2.1. .......................................... 10
2.2. ................................................................................ 11
2.3. & ...... 13
2.4. ................. 13
2.4. [% ] 1960 2005, , ..., .... 14
2.1. .............. 15
2.5. - .................................................. 16
2.6. ........................................................... 17
2.1. ................................... 18
2.3 ....................................................................... 20
, . ............................................................. 20
2.2. , .................................... 21
2.5. ...................... 23
2.7. ........................................................ 24
2.6. & ................................. 25
2.8. .......................... 25
................................................................................................................................ 26
2.7. ................................... 26
........................................................... 26
2.3. .................... 27
2.9. ............. 28
2.2. BP > 0 .............. 29
2.4 .................................................. 30
........................................................................................................................... 30
2.3. .... 31
2.10. : .......................... 34
2.11. ................................. 35
2.12. ....................... 35
............................................................................................................... 37
2.4. . 38
2.5 .............................................................. 40
2.13. .................... 41
2.5. : CA < 0 CF > 0 ............... 42
2.8. ................................. 44
2.9. [% ], 1986 2005 .............................. 44
. ............................................................................ 45
46
, 3
3

Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as
deadly as a hit man.
(Ronald Reagan, ..., 1980 1988)
, .
As little as two years ago, most of important people had no doubts about the
equation Free Markets + Sound Money = Prosperity. Unfortunately, life isnt that
simple; and thats what weve found out in the last couple of years.
(Paul Krugman, chapter 9 Challenging Conventional Wisdom in
Pop Internationalism, 4th printing, 1996, page 198, MIT Press)
,
+ = .
, , .
R. Reagan , P. Krugman
.
3.1
. ,
, , ,
.
.
, ,
. . , .
,
. ,

1980, . ,
.
,
, .
,

,
..
, , :
, 3
. , ,
, ,
. , ,
, ,
.
.
,
, .

. Galbraith
. , ,
,
.
, . ,
. , ,
, ,
.
,

. 6
.
, 20 .
, .
. ,
.
, , .
3.2
. 1
(1914 1918), ,
, , .
.
( ) ,
,
, , , Seignorage
, seignorage income. income
,
.
.
, ,
- . Kenneth Rogoff, .
, ,

..
, , :
, 3
, , .1
3.1,
20 , , , .
3.1. , 1969 2005

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-69

-74
-79
-84
-89
-94
-99
-04
, 1960
, 3%,
-. .
1960,
,
... .
1970, 1973 , 1979,
, ( 3.7), 15%
.
. ,
, ,
1990 .
,

, , ..., , ,
, , , . ..., 2 ,
9,7% 1982 5.8%
1979. , 1983
7,9% 3,2% 1979. .. 10,5% 4,0%,
11,9% 7,5%.
.
1
Globalization and Global Disinflation, Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas
City, Fourth Quarter 2003, pp. 5-43.
..
, , :
, 3
3.1. The Law of Living Memory
,
, .., , 1970
.
, . ,
, .
, ,
2001 , ..
. 3.2 , 5.13 , 1999
.
2005.
Robert Reich, Harvard, The Law of Living Memory.

- 2%
. 5.5
. , 2000

.
, , . 2 (1939 1945)
1970 , 1930 (
6.8 1930) . , ,
.

..

.
1990,
. , 1980
- , ,
Debt Crisis. 1990,
.

, .
.
, , - , . , ,

.
.
(credit rating agencies), Standard & Poors,
Moodys Fitch IBCA.
,
, .
3.2, 1960
..., . ,
. , ,
,
. , ,
1980
.
..
, , :
, 3
3.2. [%] , , ...,
,
35
30
25
20
15
10
...
0
-5
-60
-70
-80
-90
-00

,
: . 5 , , , .
3.3,
Economist, , , . , . , 1997,
Economist, 440,
2003. , 80 2001 2002 67% 135, 2003
173 2001.
3.3. Economist
() ( )
600

500
400
513
489
494
481
433
423
417
442
424
392
300
200
173
135
100
0
20
49
66
40
1997
1998
1999
2000
: www.economist.com.
82
80
2001
2002
2003
2004
55
45
2005
2006
3.3
.
,
. ,
..
, , :

.
.
, 3
t +1 =
Pt +1 Pt
Pt
(3.1)
t , t+1
t+1, P .
100 ,
(%). % .
t +1 = % Pt +1 =
Pt +1 Pt
100
Pt
(3.1)
3.1.
P2005 = 200 P2006 = 213.
(3.1), 2006
2006 =
P2006 P2005 213 200

=
= 0,065,
P2005
200
100 ( [3.1]), 2006 = 6,5%.
(3.1)
t+1, Pt+1,
.
Pt +1 = (1 + t +1 ) Pt
t > 0,
t < 0,
0 < t+1 < t.
(3.2)
,
. ,
, Pt+1 > Pt , , t+1 > 0.
, Pt+1 < Pt t+1 < 0. ,
, . , Pt+1 > Pt > Pt-1
0 < t+1 < t.
. , ,
, 5 , . , 2%, = 0,02,
, , = - 0,02, .
3.2. ,

1990, 20% 4%,
1995 2005,
. OECD Economic
Outlook.
..
, , :
, 3
1990
25
20
15
10
5
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
, , 1991 1997
1,8%. , , 1980 1990 0,7%, 19%.
, ,
, 1998 2005 4,2%, 3,5%.
1995 2005
4
3
2
1
0
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
-1
, 1995
2005 , (
5.13 , 1999 2005).

. , , . , , 30% , .
.
. , . 3.2, 0,2% ( = 0,002) , 2,4%,

1 , 1,024 . 50% ( = 0,5), 129,746 .
, . ,
,
. , .
. , . ,

. , , .
..
, , :
, 3
3.2.
t=0 P0 = 1.
, P12 = (1+)12P0. (3.1).
0,20% ( = 0,002),
1,024. 0,3%, 1,037.
1 12
140
129,746
120
100
80
56,694
60
40
23,298
20
1,024
1,037
1,062
1,127
1,796
3,138
0,20%
0,30%
0,50%
1,00%
5,00%
10,00%
8,916
0
20,00%
30,00%
40,00%
50,00%
, , .
10% . 10% ( = 0,1) 3,138, 50% 129,746.
, (Consumer Price Index CPI)

. .
,
.
3.3.
t w = 1100,
Pt = 100 /" ".
, (real wage) wR
(nominal wage) w,
=
wtR =
1100
w
=
= 11 " "
Pt 100 /" "
t +1 = 10%,
Pt +1 = (1 + t +1) Pt = (1 + 0,1) * 100 /" "= 110 /" "

wtR+1 =
1100
wt
=
= 10 " "
Pt +1 11 0/" "
..
, , :
, 3
wtR+1 =
w
w Pt
1
=
= wtR
Pt +1 Pt Pt +1
1 + t +1
, > 0, , ,
. , , , w(1 + t +1) = 1100(1 + 0,1) = 1210.
(GDP Implicit Price Deflator).

, ,
.
3.4. ,

. , ,
.
Utopia . , . , ,
NoValue, NV.
( ),
( ), NV ( ), NV.
2005 2006.
2005
2006
100
100
NV/

NV
10
25
1.000
2.500
1.000NV 2005 2.500NV 2006

Utopia. , 100. 2006 .

. , . , .
(3.3)
, ,
. , , .

.
.

=
..
, , :
, 3
- , .
. ,
(nominal GDP),
(real GDP).
3.5
. , , ,
.
3.5.
, .
, / .
( 2
4) ( 5 7), (
), , 2005, 2006 2007.
, QM Q, , PM P,
, , , %PM %P, .
, , : 2005,
2006 2007. ,
5% (=100*[2,1-2,0]/2,0) 2006 9,5% (=100*[2,3-2,1]/2,1) 2007.
2005 .
QM
PM
%PM
P
%P
2005
10
2,0
30
3,0
2006
20
2,1
5,0%
40
3,3
2007
30
2,3
9,5%
50
3,4
10*2,0+30*3,0 = 110
10*2,0+30*3,0 = 110
10,0%
20*2,1+40*3,3 = 174
20*2,0+40*3,0 = 160
3,0%
30*2,3+50*3,4 = 239
30*2,0+50*3,0 = 210
( 100
)
P2005 =
110
* 100 = 100,00
110
P2006 =
174
* 100 = 108,75
160
P2007 =
239
* 100 = 113,81
210
2006 =
P2006 P2005
108,75 100,00
* 100 =
* 100 = 8,75%
P2005
100,00
2007 =
P2007 P2006
113,81 108,75
*100 =
*100 = 4,65%
P2006
108,75

. ,
.. 110 2005 174 2006,
.
, . ,
110 2005 160 2006
, , .
..
, , :
10
, 3
,
.
,
( 3.4 Laspeyres Paasche. ,
2006, 2006 = 8,75%,
, 5% 10% .
2007. ,
100.
,
N
Q j,t Pj,t
=
j =1
N
Q j ,t Pj,t
j =1
(3.4)
0
, , t t0 . j /, Q P .
, Qj,t / j t,
Pj,t .
()
=
&
&
(3.5)
- ,
.
.
,
K
Q j P j ,t
=
j =1
K
Q j P j ,t
j =1
(3.6)
0
Q1, Q2, Q .
3.6
.
3.6.
, 30 20 . , = 2, Q1 = 30 Q2 = 20.
2005, 2006 2007
30*2,0+20*3,0 = 120,00
30*2,1+20*3,3 = 129,00
30*2,3+20*3,4 = 137,00

..
, , :
11
, 3
P2005 =
120,0
*100 = 100,00
120,0
P2006 =
129,00
*100 = 107,50
120,00
P2007 =
137,00
*100 = 114,17
120,00
2006 =
P2006 P2005
107,50 100,00
*100 =
*100 = 7,50%
P2005
100,00
2007 =
P2007 P2006
114,17 107,50
*100 =
* 100 = 6,20%
P2006
107,50
, 100 .
,

.
, . , 100.
,
. .
. ,
. ,
8,75% 2006 4,65%
2007, 7,50% 2006 6,20% 2007.
.
3.1.
, , :
Pt Pt 12
*100
Pt 12
.
1) y-o-y t: t =
2) yr/yr t: t =
Pt Pt 1
* 100, P t
Pt 1
12 t.
t .
Pt Pt 1
* 100
Pt 1
.
3) m/m t: t =
4) m/m,ar t: AR,t = (1 + t )12 1 , t .

t 12
:
(=1 ).
y-o-y, yr/yr,
m/m, m/m,ar,
P PSA,t 1
5) m/m,sa t: SA,t = SA,t
*100 , PSA,t m//m,sa,
PSA,t 1
m/m,saar.
.
. (3).
..
, , :
12
, 3
6) m/m,saar t: SAAR ,t = (1 + SA,t )12 1 . (4), .

, (3) (4)
. .
(1), (2) (6), .
,
(1) (4) ,
1990 2000. 1992 (4). ,
m/m,ar -20,1% ( 21,1% ) 62,0%, . (1) 14%.
, (4)
. 1992
, 20,1%;
! .
: .
, , : ; 62,% . , , (4)
1992, ;
y-o-y . ,
.
y-o-y () m/m,ar (), 1990 2000
70
62,0
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-90
-20,1
-93
-96
-99
, , :
Pt Pt 4
* 100
Pt 4
.
1) y-o-y t: t =
2) yr/yr t: t =
P t P t 1
* 100, P t Pt 1
4 t.
t .
P Pt 1
3) q/q t: t = t
*100
Pt 1
.

4) q/q,ar t: AR,t = (1 + t ) 4 1 , t . :
t
y-o-y, yr/yr,
4 (=1 ).
q/q, q/q,ar,
q/q,sa,
q/q,saar.
..
, , :
13
, 3
5) q/q,sa t: SA,t =
PSA,t PSA,t 1
PSA,t 1
*100 , PSA,t
. . (3).
6) q/q,saar t: SAAR ,t = (1 + SA,t ) 4 1 . (4), .
, .

,
,
, , , .

. , ,

.
.
, , ,
:2
.
. ,

. , . ,

:
,
.
,
, . =4%, . , ,
4%, 2%
8%. ,
, ,
.
(Office for National Statistics) ,
www.statistics.gov.uk/pic, , Personal Inflation Calculator,
, . , Bureau of Labor Statistics ... ,
www.bls.gov/cpi, ,
.
2
, Journal of
Economic Perspectives, vol. 17, no. 1, Winter 2003: i. The Consumer Price Index: Conceptual
Issues and Practical Suggestions, by Charles L. Schultze, pp. 3 22, ii. Sources of Bias and Solutions to Bias in the Consumer Price Index, by Jerry Hausman, pp. 23 44, iii. Towards a
Cost-of-Living Index: Progress and Prospects, by Katharine G. Abraham, pp. 45 58.
..
, , :
14
, 3

. .
.
2005 1990
2000. 1995.
, . . , .
. ,
,
. -
. Journal
of Economic Perspectives, 3
,
(www.oecd.org) (www.imf.org).
.
. ,
$50 1994 $111 1999. 1% 1,7% .4
.
- .

20%, .

. , ,
.
,
. ,
.
. , -

, .
3.3. Laspeyres Paasche
,
, : Laspeyres
Paasche, .
, , Laspeyres, , , Paasche.
Laspeyres,
. /
/.
. .
(3.6)
- , Henning Ahnert
Geoff Kenny Quality Adjustment of European Price Statistics and the Role for Hedonics, Occasional Paper Series No. 15, 2004, European Central Bank.
4
Jerry Hausman (2002), Sources of Bias and Solutions to Bias in the CPI, NBER Working Paper
No. 9298 (October).
..
, , :
15
, 3
K
Pt =
Q j Pj , t
j =1
K
Q P
Q j Pj , t 0
j =1
Pj , t
Pj , t 0
Q P
j j,t0
j j,t0
j =1
j =1
K
Pj , t
Q j Pj , t 0
=
K
Pj , t 0
j =1
Q j Pj , t 0
j =1
j =1
Pj , t
Pj , t 0
Qj ,
Q j Pj , t 0
j j = K
.
Q P
j j,t 0
j =1
,
(=2). .
/ j , .
, , . ,

, , .
Paasche
. /
. , .
, Paasche
K
Pt =
Q j , t Pj , t
j =1
K
=
j , t Pj , t 0
j =1
j , t Pj , t 0
j =1
Pj , t
Pj , t 0
Q
j =1
j , t Pj , t 0
K
Pj , t
Q j , t Pj , t 0
=
K
Pj , t 0
j =1
Q j , t Pj , t 0
j =1
j =1
j,t
Pj , t
Pj , t 0
Qj,t ,
Q j , t Pj , t 0
j,t j , t = K
.
j , t Pj , t 0
j =1
, Paasche
-
.
, Fisher, Irving
Fisher 1922.
Laspeyres, , Paasche, .
, . ,
, , ,
.
3.4. ;
*** ***
, 0,5% (Measurement of
the CPI, by Ken Ariga and Kenji Matsui, NBER Working Paper No. 9436, January 2003).
..
, , :
16
, 3
; ,
, , , .
2,5% 1,5%.
, ,
, . , Economist 1%

... $140 (The unmeasurable lightness of being, 23 1996, . 85-86).
$107 (Economic Report of the President, 1998, . 373).
, 2006 23,5 ,
22% , 1%
0,235 , 0,2% .
, 1%

.
.

. , ,
,
,
. ,
, .
3.5.
,
.
Alan Greenspan,
Fed
.
Paul Volcker, Greenspan, Fed
1980, .
( )
. ,
.
.
, HICP, 2%.
, 5.5 .

:
. ,
,
.
, .
, ,
. , .
1980 . ,
2,5% 1984,
, -0,1% 1988,
1,8% 1989. , , -
..
, , :
17
, 3
, 0,5% 1986 1987. .
!
. , ,
300% 1985 1990,
.
. , ,
.
1990,
. ,
. 5.13
, 1999 2005.
, , 2000 .
,
.
.

.

.
, ,
, . ,
, ,
. , , ,
, ....

, ,
. , . , .
. . ,
, .
. , , ,
, . , ,
.
(Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices
HICP)
.5 HICP -, 5
, The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices:

Concept, Properties and Experience to Date, Monthly Bulletin, 2005, , . 55 68.
..
, , :
18
, 3
. ,
-, HICP Maastricht.

, ,
.
, ,
. (3.3).
=
(real consumption), , , .
, .
3.6. Chain-weighted
, .
,
. , .
, , /,
, .
, Bureau of Economic Analysis ...
chain-weighted. ,
, .., 2006, 2005 2006 :
2005 2006. 2005 2006, 2005, . 2006. , .
, www.bea.gov Bureau of
Economic Analysis. - , to
Chain-weighted: The New Approach to Measuring GDP, by Charles Steindel, Current Issues in
Economics and Finance, Vol. 1, No. 9, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, December 1995.
3.4
3.4 , .
, .
,
, .

, ,
.
, . ,
, -
..
, , :
19

,

.
, 3
,
.
, , ,
(, ), , ( , , ,)
. , ,
, (
) , Super Market.
, ,
() .
3.4.

TA
Pw
TA
Pw
Pcons
S, Pf
Pout
Pout
Praw
Super Market
. W: , i: , Praw: , Pout: ,
Pw: , Pcons: , S: ,
Pf: & , : .
, .
, Praw , , Pout , , Pw ,
, Pcons .
,
, w,
, i, , Praw ,
. , Pf, , S. ,
, Pout ,
(), .
.
, , ,
,
. ,
, , ,
. .
..
, , :
20
, 3
, ,
, , - ...
, Pcons . 3.7
. , ,

.
3.7.
, ,
50 , 10 , 25 15
. , , = 0,1 (10%).
100 (=50+10+25+15),
Pout = 100*(1+) = 100(1+0,1) = 110.
, , 8%. 54 104.
. , Pout , .
110 104
=
= 0,058 5,8%.
104
, .

Pout = ( )*(1+) = 104*(1+0,1) = 114,4,
(114,4 - 110)/110 = 0,04 4%.
, . , . , , , , .

. . ,
50, , ..,
25 21.
. ,
.
. ,

. . , . .
3.7.
,
, , .
( ) ( ), 1960 2005. International Financial Statistics .
,
, $3 $12 300%, , $12 $36 200%. , . 2000, -,
. , ,
1980, $30 $10.
..
, , :
21
, 3
[$... ]
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1960-
1970-
1980-
1990-
2000-
, .
, 1980
- 16 ,
.
[$... ]
4000
20000
3000
15000
2000
10000
1000
5000
0
1960-
0
1970-
1980-
( )
1990-
2000-
( )
,
.
(price stickiness) .
,

.
, . , .
. t t+1.
d, tCk,t+1. k ,
t
t.
, ,

. ,
. .
t,
..
, , :
22
, 3
= (1 + )*
,
Pk ,t +1 = (1 + d ) E t C k ,t +1
1+d =
Pk ,t +1
Et C k ,t +1
, Pk,t+1 , tCk,t+1. .
tCk . ,
t .
. .

. .
, , Ck,t+1,
, Ck,t+1 EtCk,t+1. , .

1+ =
Pk ,t +1
Ck ,t +1
Pk ,t +1 Et Ck ,t +1
Et Ck ,t +1
= (1 + d )
Et Ck ,t +1 Ck ,t +1
Ck ,t +1
14
24
3
(1+ d )
1+ d
1
424
3
,
,
Ck ,t +1 Et C k ,t +1

.
, Ck,t+1 > EtCk,t+1, EtCk,t+1
/ Ck,t+1 < 1 ,
< d. , . , :
3.5.

t+1

, d

, EtCk,t+1
Pk,t+1=(1+d)EtCk,t+1

, Ck,t+1

(1+) = Pk,t+1/Ck,t+1
, . tPt+1, t w
~ R .
w
..
, , :
23
, 3
~R =
w
w
Et Pt +1
t+1 ,
Pt+1 EtPt+1,
~ R . ,
, w R w
wR =
w
w Et Pt +1 ~ R Et Pt +1
=
=w
Pt +1 Et Pt +1 Pt +1
Pt +1
, ,
. , EtPt+1/Pt+1
~R.
w R < w
, , , . ( )

.
. ,
. , , .
(MENU COSTS). .
.
. ,
supermarkets,
, . ,
, , .
.
,

,
.
, .

.
. , ,
,
.
,
. 3.4 ,
. , . , .
.
..
, , :
24
, 3
.
.
, . , .
, , ,
,
.
. .
, , , Pw ,
Pout .
. ,
, , , .
. ,

. ,
3.7. coordination failure.
, ,

. ,
.
. ,
, , ,
.

. ,
, ,
. ,
, .
.
, ,
.
, ,
,
.
, , ()

.
..
, , :
25
, 3
. 0,99, 9,99, 99,99, 1, 10 100 ,
.

.
3.8.
. , , .
: )
)
.
,
, , ... .
:
1. Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices, by Mark Bils and Peter J. Klenow (Journal
of Political Economy, vol. 112, no. 5, pp. 947 985, 2004), ...
2. Price Chnages in the Euro Area and the United States: Some Facts from Individual Consumer
Price Data, by E. Dhyne, L.J. lvarez, H. Le Bihan, G. Veronese, D. Dias, J. Hoffmann, N.
Jonker, P. Lnnemann, F. Rumler and J. Vilmunen (Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 20,
no. 2, pp, 171-192, Spring 2006, ... (..)
3. Inflation Persistence and Price-Setting Behavior in the Euro Area, by Filippo Altissimo, Michael
Ehrmann and Frank Smets (ECB Occasional Paper Series no. 46, June 2006), ...
. , . ..., 29% , , ,
15%. , 6,7 13
.
,
. , .
.
, ,
.
, , , , ,
, . .
, .
, (surveys) /,
, . , ,
. , ... 522 Macroeconomics (fourth edition), N.
Gregory Mankiw (Worth Publishers, New York 2000).

.
, . , ,
, ,

.
, , . ,
, -
..
, , :
26
, 3
. , ,
. , 3.13
,
.
3.9.
, , ,
,

.
,
(unprocessed foods) (core) . . , , ,
.

, ,
.
, , , ,
. ,
, . , , .
, , , .
3.4, , , .
, ,
, , . , , , .
,
, ,
, , .
, , . , , , ,
, .
.

.
, , .
, , . ,
. , . , . ,
.

.
..
, , :
27
, 3
,

.
3.10.
, , , . , .
, .
, , . ,
,
. : .
, , ,
.
, , ,
,
. ,
, ,
.
, . ,6
G DD = C + I + G .
, , IS/LM
, , . , Mundell Fleming,
. .
. ,
i , C , X = C + I + G + X .
,
.
, ,
, .
, ,
. ,
, .
, ,
13.
: ,
, . . ,
,
.
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( ):
() = (C) + () + (G) + () ()
(DD) = (C) + () + (G).
..
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28
, 3
.
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.
3.11.

) ,
)
) ,

.
,
Inflation Report , , : 1) (Money and Asset Prices), 2) (Demand), 3) (Output and Supply), 4) (Costs and Prices), 5) (Prospects for Inflation).
)
) . ,

(retail spending). ,
.
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7).
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,
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.
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, , (unit labour costs). .
.
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). , .
3.12.
1990 - . ...
..
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29

...
...
...
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non-wage
labour cost,
unit labour
cost
....
, 3
,
: , , .

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, , , . , , .
, , - ... , NASDAQ, . , 2000
1998 8000 2000.

NASDAQ (Total Returns Index)
9000
2000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1/1/1990
1998
1/1/1995
1/1/2000
2002
1/1/2005
: DATASTREAM.
, 2000 2002,
: .
,
.
, , . .
, 1998 ,
;
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,
. , Old Economic Logic in the New Economy (California Management Review, Vol. 41, No. 4, Summer 1999, pp. 64-83) Laura Tyson
, .
, Are Networks Driving the New Economy (Harvard Business Review,
NovemberDecember 1998, pp. 3-7) Peter Bernstein .
1980, , .
, , , ,
:
... 1990.
,
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,
.
1995. ,
1957
International Financial Statistics ....
..
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30
, 3
, , , , , NASDAQ.
3.5
, , .
3.6,

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TA
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Super Market
. W: , i: , Praw: , Pout: ,
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31
, 3
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, ... .
, , , . , , , . .
3.13.
sacrifice ratio, 1% .
, . ,
, , , . , .
, S. Fisher, R. Sahay C. Vgh, Modern Hyper- and High Inflations
(Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. XL, pp. 837-880, 2002) .... 2,9 () 0,8 (, ..). , 1% 2,9% 0,8% .

.
;
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, 3

; . . , ,
10%.
.
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. --
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.
.
3.6 . ,
, .
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, Super Market
,
.

.
3.15.

.

. , .

. Utopia
.
:
.
, . , ,

. , .
.
(core CPI).
,
- .
( 3.8 ).
, , HICP ( ) : , HICP (
..
, , :
33
, 3
). . ,
1%. , .
HICP (Headline) (Core)
3,5
HICP
3
y-o-y [%]
2,5
2
1,5
HICP excluding
Energy & Unprocessed Food
1
0,5
0
-97
-99
-01
-03
-05
: Eurostat.
, , .
, 2000 2001 2005 2006. ,
.
, . , , ,
. .

. .
, , Eurostat epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu, HICP.
HIC Food, HIC Alcohol & Tobacco, HIC Clothing, HIC Housing, HIC Household
Equipment, HIC Health, HIC Transport, HIC Communications, HIC Recreation & Culture,
HIC Hotels & Restaurants, HIC Energy, HIC All Items excluding Energy & Food, HIC All
Items excluding Energy, Food, Alcohol & Tobacco,
, , .
.
IV. Measuring and Assessing Underlying Inflation
OECD Economic Outlook 2005, . 125 141.
,
.
.
, , ,
,
. 1,25% 2006, , 1,5%, , 2,5%,
- 2%.
, .

.
...

.

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.
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34
, 3
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(...) .
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..., .
Maastricht. ,
.

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.
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..
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35

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3.17. , &
1980
,
1990 .
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.

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..
, , :
36
, 3
..................................................................................... 1
3.1 ............................................................................................................................... 1
3.2 ......................................................................... 2
3.3 ...................................................................................... 5
3.4 .......................................................................... 19
3.5 .............................................................................. 31
..................................................................................... 1
3.1 ............................................................................................................................... 1
3.2 ......................................................................... 2
3.1. , 1969 2005 ......................................................................... 3
3.1. The Law of Living Memory........................................ 4
3.2. [%] , , ..., ................................. 5
3.3. Economist .................................................. 5
3.3 ...................................................................................... 5
. ...........................................................................................................................5
3.1. ............................................................ 6
3.2. , ............................ 6
3.2. ......................................................... 8
3.3. ................................... 8
3.4. , ........................... 9
. ............................................................................................................9
3.5. ....................................... 10
3.6. ....................................... 11
3.1. ............................................ 12
. ............................................................................................................ 14
3.3. Laspeyres Paasche ................................................................ 15
3.4. ;.............................................. 16
3.5. ................................................................. 17
3.6. Chain-weighted ........................................................... 19
3.4 .......................................................................... 19
3.4. ....................................................... 20
............................................................................. 21
3.7. ................................... 21
3.7. ................................................................ 21
3.5. ............................................................ 23
3.8. ........................................................... 26
3.9. .............. 27
. ..................................... 27
3.10. .......................................................... 28
3.11. ........................................ 29
3.12. ...................................................... 29
3.5 .............................................................................. 31
3.6. ....................................................... 31
3.13. ......................................... 32
3.14. , .............................. 32
3.15. ............................................................................ 33
3.16. ... ......................................... 35
3.17. , & .......... 36
..
, , :
37
, 4
4

if creditors can be sure that prices will remain stable in the future, they will not
demand an inflation risk premium to compensate them for the risks associated
with holding nominal assets over the longer term. By reducing such risk premia in
the real interest rate, monetary policy credibility contributes to the efficiency with
which the capital markets allocate resources and thus increases the incentives to
invest. This in turn fosters economic welfare.
(The Monetary Policy of the ECB, , 2004)
( ) ,
.
,
. .
, ... , . .
4.1
1980, 14,5%.
2000 7,7%. 100 ( ), 14,5 1980 7,7 2000. , 2000
1980.
, ,
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, 1980 ,
, 26,1% y-o-y 1980 3,9% y-o-y 2000,
. , 2000
1980.
, , . .
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, 4
3,8% 2000 -11,6% () 1980. , 3,8% 2000,
11,6% 1980.
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, 4
, . , .
, , , , , . , , , , .
. t = 1000. . , t,
iD,t = 0,05 (5%)
, t+1. . . , , .
, Pt = 10 ,
Qt = At / Pt = 1000/[10 ] = 100 . . .
, , , , At, iD,t*At = 0,05*1000 = 50,
At+1 = (1+iD,t)*At = (1+0,05)*1000 = 1050. ,
t+1, t, , .
,
t+1, . , t , 1000 t 1050
t+1. ,
Qt, , Qt+1.
, , t.
, At+1,
Pt+1.
, , Pt+1, Qt+1 = At+1/Pt+1,
Qt . , .
, , . ,
, Ett+1 = 0,07 (7%), , EtPt+1 = (1+Ett+1)*Pt =
(1+0,07)*[10/] = 10,7/ , ,
, tQt+1.
E t Qt +1 =
(1 + i D,t ) At
At +1
=
E t Pt +1 (1 + E t t +1 ) Pt
(1 + 0,05) 1000
1050
=
= 98,13 " ".
(1 + 0,07) 10/" " 10,7/" "
4.1 , t.
4.1. ,

..
, 4
t+1
:
A)
Qt =
1000
At
=
= 100 " "
Pt 10/" "
B) ,
9 At = 1000
9 At+1 = (1+iD,t)*At
= (1+0,05)*1000 = 1050
9 Qt +1 =
At +1
Pt +1
: &
9
At = 1000
Pt = 10/
iD,t = 0,05 (5%)
Qt = At /Pt = 1000/[10/] = 100
At+1 = (1+iD,t)*At = (1+0,05)*1000 = 1050
9 t+1
tt+1 = 0,07 (7%)
EtPt+1 = (1+ tt+1)*Pt = (1+0,07)*[10/]
= 10,7/
EtQt+1 = At+1 /EtPt+1 = 1050/[10,7/]
= 98,13
, Qt,

, EtQt+1.
E t rt +1
(1 + i D ,t ) At
A
At +1
A
t
t
(1 + E t t +1 ) Pt Pt i D ,t E t t +1
E Q Qt E t Pt +1 Pt
=
= t t +1
=
=
At
At
1 + E t t +1
Qt
Pt
Pt
. , iD,t, , .
, .
, . ,
. , tt+1 = 0,02 (=2%), 1+tt+1 = 1 +
0,02 1. ,
= Et rt +1 =
i D ,t Et t +1
i D ,t Et t +1 (4.1)
1 + Et t +1
14
4244
3
Et t +1 ,
1+ Et t +1 1
..
, 4
, Etrt+1 < 0, ,
, , , EtQt+1 < Qt,

. 5% (=it) ,
7%
(=Ett+1). , t .

, Etrt+1 > 0. Ett+1 = 0,03 < 0,05 = it Etrt+1
0,05 0,03 = 0,02 (2%).
2% . ,
t+1/EtPt+1 = 1050/[(1+0,03)*10/] = 101,94 , 2% Qt.
,
. , ,
, . , .
, . ,
. , , i = 0, ,
. , i = 0, rt+1
= t+1. , i 0,
.
, . .
4.2.
/, , . , , , . , ,
.
, . ,
, ,
..., 1970 1999. ,
International Financial Statistics
. 1999,
...
, . , 1999 . ... 2001.
..
, 4
[%] , , , ... 1970 - 1999
25
...
20
15
10
0
-70
-75
-80
-85
-90
-95
, . 3.2,
, , , , .
.
1990 , Bundesbank,
.
1989. ... 1990
, Fed,
, , , ,
.
.

. 1988,
, . , . , 4.7 .
. Etrt+1 iD,t Ett+1,

, rt+1,
, t+1, , Ett+1.
t+1, t.
i D ,t t +1
Q Qt
= rt +1 = t +1
= ... =
iD ,t t +1
1 + t +1
Qt
14243
(4.2)
t +1 ,
1+ t +1 1
t+1 Ett+1 , , rt+1 Etrt+1.

, - ( t+1) ( tt+1).
, Ett+1
t , , , ( 3.4 -
..
, 4
3.4). , t
t+1 , , , ,
. , t+1 = Ett+1
.
. , t+1 > Ett+1, , t+1 < Ett+1, .
, , rt+1 <
Etrt+1. , t+1
t .
, rt+1 > Etrt+1.
4.1.
4.1, t+1 = 0,09 > 0,07 =
tt+1, Pt+1 = (1+0,09)*10/ = 10,9/ > 10,5/ = tPt+1, Qt+1 =
At+1/Pt+1 = 1050/(10,9/) = 96,33 < 98,13 = EtQt+1. , rt+1 =
(Qt+1 Qt)/Qt = (96,33 100,0)/100,0 = -0,0367 < -0,0187 = trt+1.
, , , .
, .
, ,
, 0,018 (1,8%), .
,
, .
4.1, t+1 = 0,04 < 0,07 = tt+1, Pt+1 = (1+0,04)*
10/ = 10,4/ < 10,5/ = tPt+1, Qt+1 = At+1/Pt+1 = 1050/(10,4/) =
100,96 > 98,13 = EtQt+1. , rt+1 = (Qt+1 Qt)/Qt = (100,96
100,0)/100,0 = 0,0096 > -0,0187 = trt+1.
, .
, t+1 > Ett+1, .

t
iD,t, t+1 . ,
.
.
4.2 ,
t iL,t = 0,10 (10%).

t t+1,
.
..
, 4
4.2. ,

t+1
:
At = 1000
9

1000
A
= 100 " "
Qt = t =
Pt 10/" "
At+1 = (1+iL,t)*At
= (1+0,10)*1000 = 1100
9

A
Qt +1 = t +1
Pt +1
: &
9
At = 1000
Pt = 10/
iL,t = 0,10 (10%)
Qt = At /Pt = 1000/[10/] = 100
At+1 = (1+iL,t)*At = (1+0,10)*1000 = 1100
9 t+1
tt+1 = 0,07 (7%)
EtPt+1 = (1+ tt+1)*Pt = (1+0,07)*[10/]
= 10,7/
EtQt+1 = At+1 /EtPt+1 = 1100/[10,7/]
= 102,80
,
, Etrt+1 = (EtQt+1 Qt)/Qt.
(4.1) iD,t
iL,t.
, (4.2)
iL,t iD,t.
, , t+1 > Ett+1,
: . , t+1 < Ett+1 .
4.3.
4.1 4.2, iL,t iD,t. . iD,t iL,t .
,
/ . 4.3 .
, (interest rate spread), .
, . , t+1 tt+1, .
. 4.1, , .
..
, 4
4.1. -
t+1 > tt+1 rt+1 < trt+1
t+1 < tt+1 rt+1 > trt+1
4.4.
, ,
, .
, .
. Utopia r d = 5%. t
,t+1 = 7%.

, 12% (= r d + ,t+1
= 5% + 7%). (4.1) tt+1 = ,t+1.
, , , .
, , Ett+1 = 15% (0,15).
, , , ,
r d = 5%. ,
iD,t = r d + Ett+1 = 5% + 15% = 20%.
, t+1 = ,t+1 = 7%, . 5% rt+1 iD,t - t+1 = 20%
- 7% = 13%.
, , , .
, , iD,t = 20%, iL,t = 23% ( 3%). ,
iL,t - t+1 23% - 7% = 16%, iL,t t t+1
= 23% - 15% = 8%.
, ,
:
.
, : , . ,
.

.
,
. /. ,
, /
.
-
.
4.5.
,
, .
, 4 Inflation Stabilization and Nominal Anchors Guillermo
A. Calvo Carlos A. Vgh, Approaches to Exchange Rate Policy IMF
Institute 1994.
,
, . , ,
, t+1 < Ett+1, .
..
, 4
.
t=0 = 40%.
1/5 . ,t+1 = 0,8*t.
, Ett+1 = ,t+1 = 0,8*t. , ,
, Ett+1 = t. ,

.

. . . .
. , t+1 = ,t+1 = 0,8*t.
, , Etrt+1 = r = 5% ,
r = 5%, .
, Etrt+1
= r, it r + Ett+1 = r + t,
rt+1 it t+1 = r + t - t+1. . .

t=0
40,00
32,00
25,60
20,48
16,38
13,11
10,49
8,39
6,71
5,37
4,29
3,44
2,75
2,20
1,76
1,41
1,13
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
,t+1 = 0,8* t E t t+1 = t E t r t+1 = r i t = r + E t t+1 r t+1

32,00
40,00
5,00
45,00
25,60
32,00
5,00
37,00
20,48
25,60
5,00
30,60
16,38
20,48
5,00
25,48
13,11
16,38
5,00
21,38
10,49
13,11
5,00
18,11
8,39
10,49
5,00
15,49
6,71
8,39
5,00
13,39
5,37
6,71
5,00
11,71
4,29
5,37
5,00
10,37
3,44
4,29
5,00
9,29
2,75
3,44
5,00
8,44
2,20
2,75
5,00
7,75
1,76
2,20
5,00
7,20
1,41
1,76
5,00
6,76
1,13
1,41
5,00
6,41
= i t t+1
13,00
11,40
10,12
9,10
8,28
7,62
7,10
6,68
6,34
6,07
5,86
5,69
5,55
5,44
5,35
, ,
.

40
35
Ett+1 = t
30
25
20
t+1 =
,t+1 = 0,8*t
15
10
rt+1 = r + Ett+1 t+1
Etrt+1 = r = 5%
..
0
0
10
6
10
11
12
13
14
15
, 4
( ) (
), ( ) (
).
, , , .

.
,
: , . , . , .
. ,
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4.3

, . , .
, , , ,
. , ,
, .
,
. , , ,
. ,
.
, ,
. ,
.

. ,
.
. , , tt+1 = 5%
(0,05).
A iA,t = 2%, EtrA,t+1 -3% (= 2% - 5%).
A 3% .
,
. , 5% .
..
11
, 4
, , , , B, , , 3%, 4%, 5% 6% . E,
iE,t = 6% 1% (= 6% 5%). . , , .
. ,
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(financial repression). -
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12
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, 5
5
,
Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system
was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments
can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their
citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily;
and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of
this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security but [also] at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth.
Those to whom the system brings windfalls, beyond their deserts and even beyond their expectations or desires, become "profiteers," who are the object of the
hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished, not less than of
the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds and the real value of the currency fluctuates wildly from month to month, all permanent relations between debtors and
creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless; and the process of wealth-getting degenerates into a gamble and a lottery.
Lenin was certainly right. There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning
the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all
the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million is able to diagnose.
(John Maynard Keynes, The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919), www.pbs.org)
( ) . , , ,
. , , , .
.
, , ,

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, ,
.
.
. , .
.
. , Keynes,
, Carl Marx,
, . , ,
..
, 5
,
Keynes,
.
5.1
, , , : , , ;
:
2% 3% ;
,

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3.13 , ,
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, , ....
...
.
! ,
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.
. ,
. ,
.
, ,
.
,
.
. Paul Krugman,
Princeton, one of the dirty little secrets of eco-
..
, 5
nomic analysis.1
, . ,
4% 5% . 10% .
,
,
. , Harvard Kenneth Rogoff, ... 2001 2003,

accutely damaging
40% .2 , 10%. , ,

2% 3% 4%.
, , :
, , ,

, - .
3.1 .
5.1. :

Inflation figures to signal direction for interest rates
Financial Times, 13 2006
Drop in US inflation raises hopes of rate cut next year Financial Times, 17 2006

Concentrated focus on inflation and interest rates hurts sentiment

Contrasting positions on UK and US inflation spark sharp moves
Contrasting news on inflation in the UK and US triggered sharp moves in financial markets yesterday, spurring sterling to finally breach the $2 mark against the US currency
,
Dollar resumes slide on benign inflation data

Dollar rallies as Greenspan warns on inflation
, ,
World stock prices fall as fears grow of rising inflation Financial Times, 16 1999
,
Spectre of inflation in US puts brakes on Treasury bond rally Financial Times, 3 2006
,
Hard times for Indias mortgage holders.
1
The Age of Diminished Expectations U.S. Economic Policy in the 1990s, by Paul Krugman,
MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992, . 52.
2
Globalization and Global Disinflation, by Kenneth Rogoff, Economic Review Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Fourth Quarter 2003, . 45 78.
..
, 5
The central banks determination to beat inflation is hitting homeowners as well as consumer demand
,
. , ,

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,

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5.2
.
, , :
Utopia 2005 20%; , 20%
,

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( 12.3 ).
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5.
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.
. ,
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5.1.
t = 1000 r = 0,03 (3%), . , ,
, t, Pt = 10/,
.
Qt = t / Pt = 1000/(10/) =
100 .
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100 = 103 .
Qt+1 = At+1 / Pt+1 Pt+1 = (1+t+1)Pt, At+1
t+1 (= ),
Qt +1 =
At +1
A
= (1 + r )Qt = (1 + r ) t
Pt +1
Pt
At +1 = (1 + r )
At
P
Pt +1 = (1 + r ) t +1 At = (1 + r )(1 + t +1 ) At
Pt
Pt
{
=1+ t +1

, t+1, .
, , t+1 = 0,05 (5%), At+1 = (1+0,03)(1+0,05)*
1000 = 1081,5. t+1 = 0,10 (10%), At+1 = (1+0,03)(1+0,10)*1000
= 1133.
..
, 5
t,
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. ,
20%, t YN,t = 1000, t+1 t+1 = 10% 0%.
t+1 YN,t+1 = (1+t+1)*YN,t = (1+0,1)*1000 = 1100. ,
YN ,t +1
Pt +1
YN ,t
Pt
YN ,t +1 =
Pt +1
YN ,t = (1 + t +1 ) YN ,t
Pt
{
=1+ t +1
t 0,2*YN,t = 0,2*1000 = 200. 0,2*YN,t+1 =

0,2*1100 = 220, 10% .
,
Inflation-Indexed Bonds: How Do They Work?, by Jeffrey M. Wrase, Business Review Federal
Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, July/August 1997, pp. 3 16, Inflation-Indexed Bonds: The Dog
That Didnt Bark, by Richard W. Kopcke and Ralph C. Kimball, New England Economic Review,
January/February 1999, pp. 3 24.

. / , , , . .
,
.
, ,
. . ,
,
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.
, 50 , , 100.000 5%.
5.000 80 ,
100.000. 65 ,
100.000. , , , ,
.
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100.000. , , . .
- ,
, t+1 tt+1, , t+1
= tt+1, .
. , ,
, , , .
. , .
,
. ,
, .
) . , . .
i. . , .
ii. . , , : , , , . . , Milton Friedman,
Chicago University,
.
..
, 5
. t
YN,t = 1000, Pt = 10/,
M0,t = 50. 50,
. - 5%
(=50/1000), M0,t / Pt =
50/(10/) = 5 . t
5 .
, , t+1 t+1 = 10%.
Pt+1 = (1+t+1)*Pt = (1+0,10)*[10/] = 11/, 50

4,55 ( = 50/[11/]). 50
,
4,55 , 10%
50 .
5 4,55 .
, , t, t+1 . , .
, , , it = 0, , rt = 0 t+1 = t+1.

.
iii. - . .
15% 10,000. 10,000, 10,000
0,15. , , 2005 10,000
P2005 = 10/.
1000 (=10,000/[10/]). , 2006, P2006 = 12/,
2006 = 0,20 (20%).
, 20%,
12,000, 2006
2005, 1000 .
,
. , 2006 300 , 15% 2006. , 12,000 10,000 = 2,000.
11,700 ( = 12,000 300), (11,700)/[
12/] = 975.
2006 25 , .
. ,
, 12,000,

.
, , . . ,
..
10
, 5
.
. ,
, , ,
.
iv. . 1990
200,000. , , , 400,000. , . , ,
10%,
0,10*(400,000 200,000) = 20,000. , 400,000 20,000 = 380,000,
. .
2. ,
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,

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, BP = CA + CF . , . , -.
5.2. -
1000 NoValues, t = 1000 NV, NoValue Utopia.
, , NV10/.
, 100. ,
1000NV / ( NV10/ ).
NV20/, NoValue 50%,
, 50.
,
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CF CA + CF = BP
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-
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, , .....
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, 5
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, . , , ,
.
.
, , .
, :
, .
) . , .
, Exchange Rate-based Stabilization Programs. ,
Inflation Stabilization and Nominal Anchors Guillermo A. Calvo Carlos A.
Vgh, 4 Approaches to Exchange Rate Policy IMF
Institute 1994, Macroeconomic Adjustment as a Priority, 4
Crisis and Reform in Latin America From Despair to Hope Sebastian Edwards, (World Bank) 1995.
5.3. Exchange-Rate-based Stabilization Programs
. , . ,
, . , 3.5
, -.

.
.
, , , .
. 4.5 . , .

. , , , ,
, , CA = + NFI .
.
, .
,
. ,
,
.
.
,
. -
..
14
, 5
. , ,
13.
,
IS/LM Mundell-Fleming.
.
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5.4. ...
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, -
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(...) 2%. ,
..., -.
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.
) . , ,
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sacrifice ratio , .

.
4. ,
,
.
.
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, 5.1 , 136 , , 1960 2005 30%. ,
. ,
0,8 .

, 2000%.
..
15
, 5
[%]
5.1.
, ,
50
:
= 0,19% + 0,86*( )
R2 = 0,61
40
30
20
10
0
0
10
20
30
[%] 1990-2005
: ,
,
. ,
, 95% 1,96, 99%
2,5. ,
, , .
) (inflation premium).
, t+1 Ett+1, ,
rt+1 = it +1, . , , , .
, , (inflation premium).
,
: , , . ,
,
. .
.
(risk aversion) .
5.5.
, , H, , L, 50% - 50%.
, H
L.
, tt+1, , , ,
tt+1 = = 0,5* + 0,5*L
..
16
, 5
, , H = + L = , . , 5.1, =
0,8* . ,
H = + = + 0,8* = 1,8*
L = = 0,8* = 0,2*
, r d = 3%.
,
it = r d + Ett+1 = r d +
: rH, , rL, .
rH = it L = ( r d + ) ( 0,2* ) = r d + 0,8*
rL = it = ( r d + ) ( 1,8* ) = r d 0,8*

, 50% - 50%.
, 0,5*rH + 0,5*rL = r d. , ,
, ,
.
, , ;
. r d = 3%,
, = 0,8* , H = + L = ,
.
, ,
, .
.
,
, 3%.
rd
it = r d +
H = 1,8*
L = 0,2*
rL = it
rH = it L
3%
3%
3%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1,8%
3,6%
5,4%
0,2%
0,4%
0,6%
2,2%
1,4%
0,6%
3,8%
4,6%
5,4%
3%
3%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
7,2%
9,0%
10,8%
0,8%
1,0%
1,2%
-0,2%
-1,0%
-1,8%
6,2%
7,0%
7,8%
3%
3%
3%
10%
20%
50%
13%
23%
53%
18,0%
36,0%
90,0%
2,0%
4,0%
10,0%
-5,0%
-13,0%
-37,0%
11,0%
19,0%
43,0%
,
. , . , r
d
rL. rH r d.
, rL ( 3% )
( 3% < 6%),
, , . . , = 3%, H = 5,4%,
rL = 0,6%. , , L
= 0,6%, rH = 5,4%. = 6% -1,8%
7,8%.
..
17
, 5
, ,
.
.
, , .
= 20%. , H = 36%, 13%. .
+19% , .
, .
, , RP. ,
it = r d + Ett+1 + RP = r d + + RP
rH = it L = ( r d + + RP ) ( 0,2* ) = r d + 0,8* + RP
rL = it = ( r d + + RP ) ( 1,8* ) = r d 0,8* + RP
= 0,5*rH + 0,5*rL = r d + RP > r d
, ,
, .

. , rL ,
RP.
. . .
,
.
.
5.6.
Utopia NoValue, NV, .
NoValue St = NV10/.
1 NV10. , - ,
.
. , : St = St+1 =
NV10/. Utopia, .
Utopia
it = 3%, t = 1000, .
At = 1000 Wt NoValues
Wt = At*St = 1000*NV10/ = NV10000
Wt it
t+1
Wt+1 = (1+it)*Wt
= (1+it)*At*St
= (1+0,030)*NV10000 = NV10300
Wt+1 t+1
At +1 =
=
..
Wt +1 (1 + it ) Wt
=
St +1
St +1
(1 + it ) At St
= (1 + it ) At
142
4 43
4
St +1
S t +1 = S t
= (1 + 0,03) 1000 = 1030
18
, 5
, At+1 = (1+it)*At, , Utopia ,

NoValue.
,
Utopia, .
.
NV , > 0. ,
S S
%St +1 = t +1 t = St +1 = (1 + ) S t .
St
> 0, = 0,02, 1 NV, (1+0,02)*10 = 10,2.
Wt+1 NoValues t+1,

(1 + it ) Wt (1 + it ) At S t (1 + it )
W
At +1 = t +1 =
=
=
At < (1 + it ) At .
(1 + ) S t
(1 + )
S t +1
S t +1
Utopia, NV
Utopia.
, it, , t+1 , .
, , (foreign exchange risk premium). .
) (foreign exchange premium). Utopia ,

. , .
,
.

.
,
, .
. ,
13 15.
) (default risk premium).
,
. ,
.
, , . ,
, - , ,
() .
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, , Keynes
.
, ,
,
. -
..
19
, 5
, , ,
.
, : .
5.7.
Utopia
.
, . .
, = 0,90 (90%)
, ,
.
1 = 0,10 (10%). .

.
, t =
0,04 (4%). , t . t
.
, , .
Utopia it,

(1 + it) = 0,90
0
1 = 0,10
(1 + it) + (1 )*0 = (1 + it)

,
(1 + t)
,
. ,
(1 + it) (1 + t)
Utopia
it ,min =
1 + t
1 > t
, ,
, . , .
, : . . , ,
.
Utopia, 1.000.000
5%. , 50.000 . S = NV10/, 50.000 NV500.000.
20%, S = NV12/,
20% NV600.000. , , .
.
..
20
, 5
, ,
, .
5.8.
Determinants and Impact of
Sovereign Credit Ratings Richard Cantor Frank Packer (Economic Policy Review, Federal
Reserve Bank of New York, October 1996, pp. 77 53) Standard & Poors Moodys,
.
, (sovereign credit ratings), ,
. ,
. ,
.
, . Cantor Packer,
,
. ,
, .
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, , Merphy
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, 5
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.
, ,
, . , .
. . ,
.
float ,
1%.
3600% -.
NV100/, float NV100.000.000 ,
, 1.000.000 .
1.000.000 . , NV100.000.000, NV101/.
990.099 (=100.000.000/101) .
9.901 , 1% 1.000.000
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. float ,
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, .
. , ,
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4.3 ,
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4.8
, 5% 1980.
7. .

, .
4.9 . , ,
..
22
, 5
Keynes
.
, ,
. ,
. , ,
, , ,
..
23
, 6
In fact, the new economy has created such downward pressure on prices that it is
safe to say inflation is dead dead as a doornail.
.
The real threat to the economy right now is not growth but the government putting
an artificial stop to it by raising interest rates.
The new economy is strong and resilient. At the same time we are experiencing
dramatic growth, we are experiencing deflationary pressures.
(The New Economy Is Stronger Than You Think, by William A. Sahlamn, Harvard Business Review, November December 1999, pp. 99-106.)
( ) , .
.
. , .

, .
,
, ,
.
, , ,
.
, , . , ,
2000.
, ,
. ,
.
, ,
.
6.1
(business cycles) , (expansion
growth) (recession contraction). ,
.
, ,
.
..
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, 6
. . , ,
. .
,
. ,

.

.

, ,
, ..
1997, ,
...;
.
, , , .
. , (Great
Depression) 1930 ( 6.8). , 1 Keynes,
. , (stagflation), ,
1973,
, ,
.
. , ,
.
6.2
. , , . , .
, Victor Zarnowitz,
, 2
recurrent sequences of alternating phases of expansion and contraction that involve a great number of diverse economic processes and show up as distinct fluctuations in comprehensive series on production, employment, income and trade
aspects of aggregate activity. The end of each expansion is marked by a cluster of
peaks in such series; the end of each contraction, by a cluster of troughs.
John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, 1936.
Business Cycles Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting, by Victor Zarnowitz, Chicago
University Press, 1992, p. 283.
..
, , :
, 6
, . ,
Zarnowitz, ,
.
(Business Cycle Dating Committee) ... National Bureau of Economic Research NBER
(www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html),
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income,
employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins
just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy
reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they
have been rare in recent decades.
, ,
, , , . (business cycle indicators).
, .

, ...., ,
NBER Center for International Business Studies Columbia
. -, Center for
Economic Policy Research CEPR 2003 ,
www.cepr.org/data/
Dating. NBER.
, ,
,
. , ... 2001
NBER 17 2003, .
.
. 6.1 : ,
. ..., . ,
6.4.
, 6.1 ( )
( ) ...,
2000, 1960 2005. ,
, 1978 1984. .
, , .
, ,
. 16,
..
, , :
, 6
, , .
6.1. ... [$], 1960 2005

12.000

10.000
8.000
12
[%], 1978 1984
9
6.000
6
3
4.000
0
1978:1
2.000
1960:1
1970:1
1980:1
1990:1
1980:1
1982:1
1984:1
2000:1
,
. ..., , $2,4 1960 ( 1960:1) $11,2
2005.
.
, ,
. , ,
, , , , .
, 45 ,
, :
.
, .
... 1980, . , . , , , .
, , . . , , ,
.
... 5,6% 1978 11,2%
1983, 6.1.

(GDP growth rate) ,
(GDP potential growth rate) , 6.2. ,
6.1.
,
6.1. 6.2, ,
-, 1960 1974, 1975 1995
1996 2005. - .
..
, , :
, 6
, , .
, , .
6.2. ... [%], 1960 2005

4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
1960:1
1970:1
1980:1
1990:1
2000:1
6.2 . ,
.
1990, , ,
.
2000.
6.2 . , : 0,93% 1960 1974, 0,77% . , 0,80%. ,

-. ,

.
, , . 6.6
. , , .
.

6.3,
. 6.1,
6.2.
(peak)
, , . , (trough) ,
, .
..
, , :
, 6
(turning points).
, 3 13 , .
, 4 5, , , 6 13, , .
6.3.

10
11
12
13
14
10
11
12
13
14
6 10 ,
, 11 13 , . ,
7 11, 6, 12 13.
4 9, , (negative output
gap), , . , , , 6,
. , 7 9,
. , (positive output
gap) 10 13,
.
(recovery) ,
. 6.3, 6, 7 8.
6.1.
.
,
.

.
..
, , :
, 6
6.3,
3.4 .
,
. ,
- , , .
. :
, . , .
. ,
,
, ( 12). ,
( 7 9).
, 16, , ,
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.
( 10 11).
.
.
. ,
, . ,
1970
.
, , , .
. , ,
.
, , , ,
, - (procyclical), -
(countercyclical) - (acyclical). -
, , , , .
, - , .
,3 -
- . ,
- .
,
,
.
-
, . . , ..., ,
0,7% , 40%
. (G7), 52% 67%
. ,
.
. ,
, 3
Recessions and Recoveries, chapter 3,

World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund, April 2002, pp. 104 137.
..
, , :
, 6
. ,
.
, - -
. G-7, -27%
. , ,
. - .
, , , .
(depth)
(diffusion).
. ..., 2,02% 1980, .
.
, , , , .
, , , , .
, . , , , , . ,
, , .

! , ,
, , ,

. ,
.
, ,
, .
, , . (growth recessions). ,
NBER : .
, .
6.2.
..., NBER
www.nber.org/cycles/#announcements. , 1854 2001
32 , 55 17 38 .
, 1945 2001, 10
, 67 , , 10 , , 57 , .
-, CEPR
1970.

1974:1
1975:1
1980:1
1982:3
1992:1
1993:3
, ... , 10,5 (3,5 ).
..
, , :
, 6
Recessions and Recoveries, .....
6.3

, , , . , , . , , , , , .
,
, , , .4 , 1930, . , , . ,
,
1970, .

, , .
: ,

. .
, , .
, , ,
, , , .
, , , . .
, , Zarnowitz,
.
, , ,
, , .
, .5 4
,
, Business Cycles in International Historical Perpsective, by Susanto Basu and Alan M. Taylor, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 13, No. 2,
Summer 1999, pp. 45 68. 15 , 1870 20 , .
.
5
, . Business Cycles Theory, History,
..
, , :
, 6
,
. , -,
, .
, . , . , .
,

, ,
(depression). , ,
, ,
,
. , .
, (
) ( ), . , ( )
( ), .
.
. .
,
,
(,) .
1990,
,
. , ,
.

=

+ +
+
( )
,
.

. , . , , . , ... 1980,
, ... 2000, , 1999 ( 5.13
, 1999 2005).

Indicators, and Forecasting Victor Zarnowitz , . , , . Recessions and Depressions Understanding Business
Cycles, Todd A. Knoop, Praeger Publications, 2004, , .
..
, , :
10
, 6
,
. , , /
,
.
, . , 3.8 ,
,
.
. , , . ,
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.
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. , , , . ,
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6

, Theory and History Behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the
Onset of a Golden Age?, by Victor Zarnowitz, Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 13, No. 2,
Spring 1999, pp. 69 90.
..
, , :
11
, 6

, .
,
. :
, ,
, .
- , 9.
,
.
, ,
, , - , .
. . , , . , , .
, , ,
.
.
, .
, . , . , . , ,
.
. .
, .
, ,
.
, . ,
.
. , , , 10 11,
, .
(soft landing) ,
(hard landing).
,
. . 1980.
, Rudiger Dornbusch, ..., 1997: 40
. Fed. Fed ....

.
.
.
-
..
, , :
12
, 6
, , . ,
1980,
, . ,
,
, 1992 2004.
. , 5.13 , 1999 2005.

, ,
.7 ...,
, , , 2000.
1960 Fed.

, 2000.
, .
1973 1974 (
). , .. ,
1997, .
, ,
.
, .
,
, .
. 13 14.
.
... 1990,
G. Bush.
. ,
. , .
, ,
, , . ,
, .
, . () . , 1990 ( 5.13 , 1999
2005). , 40% .
, ,
7
,
VII Cycles and the Financial System, 71st Annual Report, Bank for International Settlements, pp. 123-141.
..
, , :
13
, 6
.
, .
, , ( ) . 5.12 5.13.
, :
, ,
, . , , ,
.
,
, .
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1920 ....

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,
. The Adjustment of
Expectations to A Change in Regime: A Study of the Founding of the Federal Reserve, by N.
Gregory Mankiw, Jeffrey A. Miron and David N. Weil, American Economic Review, Vol. 77, No. 3,
pp. 358 374.

1929. , Irving Fisher (plateau). .
, 1960, .
..
, , :
15
, 6
. ..., , NBER, 1961 1969. 1968 (Department of
Commerce), ,
Business Cycle Digest Business Conditions Digest.
,
1990 , ,
, .

, .
,
, 1994, .. , 1997, .
, .
.
1947 o Arthur Burns,
NBER,
For all over a century, business cycles have run an uneasy round. They have persisted
through vast economic and social changes; they have withstood countless experiments in
industry, agriculture, banking, industrial relations, and public policy; they have confounded
forecasters without a number, belied repeated prophesies of a new era of prosperity and
outlived repeated forebodings of chronic depression.
World Economic Outlook 2002. !
, , ,
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.. .
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, 86,6% 75,3%.
6.1. 120

1881 1913 1919 1938 1950 1972 1973 2000
[%]
-4,3
-8,1
-2,1
-2,5
[]
1,3
1,8
1,1
1,5

24,7
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75,3
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: 3.1, Recessions and Recoveries, chapter 3 in World Economic Outlook,
International Monetary Fund, April 2002, p. 108.
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The Cost of
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Paper 10926, November 2004. Lucas Models of Business Cycles, Basil Blackwell, Oxford, 1987.
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Cross-Country Evidence of the Link Between Volatility and

Growth, by Garey Ramey and Valerie A. Ramey, American Economic Review, Vol. 85, No. 5,
pp. 1138 1151, 1995, December.
..
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21
, 6
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). 2,1% () 4,1% ().
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1990 1996.
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. !
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2
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1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
12
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1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
, 1) , 2) , 3)
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.
,
, Anne Kruger.
, Kruger
Devaluation then left financial institutions facing massive losses, or insolvency The
contraction in GDP that most crisis countries experienced made things even worse, of
course, because the number, and size, of non-performing loans grew rapidly. The further
weakening of the financial sector inevitably had adverse consequences for the economy
as a whole. In short, the crisis economies found themselves in a vicious downward spiral.
(Wrong lessons from Asias crisis, Financial Times, July 2, 2007)

Ann Kruger, 2001
2006, .

.... ,
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..
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22
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,
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1930, Great Depression,
.
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, ( Box 3.2. The Great Depression
World Economic Outlook):
...,

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.... (www.oecd.org).

(europa.eu.int), Conference Board (www.conference-board/economics), Economic Cycle Research Institute (www.businesscycle.com)
..
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26
, 6
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tA, ,
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tB

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tB.
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10 Cyclical Indicators: Structure, Significance, and Uses

Zarnowitz. , Toward a Theory of Leading Indicators,
by Frank de Leeuw, chapter 2 in Leading Economic Indicators New Approaches and Forecasting
Records, edited by Kajal Lahiri and Geoffrey H. Moore, Cambridge University Press, 1991.
..
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1990, . NBER, 1990 1991. Bush
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120
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, 6
.............................................................................................................. 1
6.1 ............................................................................................................................... 1
6.2 ......................................................................................................... 2
6.3 ........................................................................................ 9
6.4 .......................................................................... 19
6.5 .......................................................................... 24
.............................................................................................................. 1
6.1 ............................................................................................................................... 1
6.2 ......................................................................................................... 2
. ............................................................................................................................3
6.1. ... [$], 1960 2005 .............................................4
6.2. ... [%], 1960 2005.....5
.......................................................................................................................................5
6.3. ...................................................6
6.1. ...........................................6
6.2. ..............................................................8
6.3 ........................................................................................ 9
6.3. ............................. 14
6.4. .................................. 14
6.5. .................. 15
6.6. .............................. 17
6.1. 120 ................................................................... 17
6.4 .......................................................................... 19
6.7. .. ......... 21
6.8. 1930 ....................................... 23
6.5 .......................................................................... 24
. .......................................................................................................................................... 24
6.4. .......................................................... 27
6.9. .................................................................... 24
6.5. ..................................... 28
............................................................................................................. 28
6.10. ............... 28
6.11. ........................................................ 29
6.6. ...................... 31
6.12. ....... 32
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34
& 7

We would love to have three laws that explain 99% of economic behaviour; instead we have 99 laws that explain maybe 3% of economic behaviour.
(Andrew Lo, MIT Professor, quoted in The Economist, May 18th 2002)
99% . , 99
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(Life-Cycle Hypothesis) Franco Modigliani (Permanent Income Hypothesis) Milton Friedman. , 15 Macroeconomics (3rd
Edition) N.Gregory Mankiw, Worth Publishers, New York, 1997. , , , 7.4.
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.
, , , C1 = C2.
1
YD = 100
EYD = Ew + ( 1+ i ) SP1
= 80 + ( 1+ 0 ) SP1
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C2 = Ew + ( 1+ 0 ) SP1 = 90
,

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Ew EYD C1 .
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Ew .
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, C1 < C2. , ,

, SP.
SP = YD C,
YD, . , YD=100, C
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& 7
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.
, F. Altissimo, E. Georgiou,
T. Sastre, M.T. Valderrama, G. Sterne, M. Stocker, M. Weth, K. Whelan A. Willman Wealth
and Asset Price Effects on Economic Activity, European Central Bank, Occasional Paper No.
29, 2005.
11

...
. &
YD = 100
EYD = Ew + ( 1+ i ) SP1
= 80 + ( 1+ 0 ) SP1
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7.1. ,
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1
YD = 100
Ew = 80
i = 0,05 (5%)
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( 1+ i ) SP1 = ( 1 + 0,05 )10 = 10,5

C2 = Ew + ( 1 + i ) SP1 = 80+10,5 = 90,5
i = 0,10 (10%)
1
C1 = 89
SP1 = YD - C1 = 11
C1 = 90,3
SP1 = YD - C1 = 9,7
( 1+ i ) SP1 = ( 1 + 0,10 )11 = 12,1

C2 = Ew + ( 1+ i ) SP1 = 80+12,1 = 92,1
( 1+ i ) SP1 = ( 1 + 0,10 )9,7 = 10,67
C2 = Ew + ( 1+ i ) SP1 = 80 + 10,67 = 90,67
, , SP1 = 11 10 , 1, C1 =
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(7.2)
b (marginal propensity to consume).

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,
=
*
, The Economics of Saving and Growth Theory, Evidence and Implications for
Policy, edited by Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel and Luis Servn, Cambridge University Press, 1999, .
8.
4
, .
14
& 7
7.4.
YD YD+1.
~
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~
~
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C = C 'C = b.
, YD,
~
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C = C 'C = bYD.
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30
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20
15
10
5
5
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15
20
25
30
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: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
15
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9 , , , .
9
, , .., , , , , , , .
9
.
b .
YD .

16
& 7
, 0,5.
, 4, YD = 4,
3, C = 3. , b = C/YD = 3/4 < 1.
, .
,
.
0 < b < 1, -
. , -

, SP, . ,
~
S P = YD C = (1 b)YD C
S P = YD C = (1 b ) YD
(7.3)
(0 < 1 b < 1)
(7.3)
1,

b < 1,

(1b) <
1,
, , b. , .
, , - b
. ,
.
YD, b C SP .
.
, , , NFI = 0.
NFI
. , , Y, ( [2.5])
NFI = 0 GDP = GNP
, .
, INT,
, TA,
, TR INT, (7.4)
YD = Y TA + TR + INT
(7.4)
,

= ( ) +
+

, , , , . , , .
-, , ,
, ,
, . , -
17
. &
, .

, ( ) .
,
.
, , .
NFI = 0 ( [2.6]).
NFI = 0 CA = NX = -
.
, : (), , , , ,
, , TA,
( 7.5), t
. ,
TA = tY
( 0 < t < 1)
(7.5)
( ) = *
t . , ,
( TR). !

, . , ,
. , .
, ,
.

, (7.5)
. ,
.
(7.4) (7.5)
YD = (1 t )Y + TR + INT
YD = (1 t ) Y
(0 < 1 t < 1)
(7.4)
(7.4)
, ,
Y, , YD,
, t, . , :
. . ,
18
& 7
Y, t YD = ( 1 t ) Y.
, (7.2) (7.4)
+
~ +
C = C EYD ,UNC ,W + b (1 t )Y + bTR + bINT
(7.2)

C = b (1 t ) Y
1424
3
(0 < b(1 t ) < 1)
(7.2)
YD
, ,
Y, , b , , t . ,
Y > 0, b t C =
b (1 t ) Y
14243
YD
.

, , ,
, . , .
, ,
. , , . .
,
. ,
, . ,
, , .
, . , ,

. , , .
, , , i,
, INVx,
, MPK.
19
,
,

.
. &
MPK
INVx
i
. :
7.4.
7.4.

MPK
INVx
. :
i
.
(7.6) . +
.

+
I = I i , MPK , INVx
(7.6)
,
+
( ) = (), ,
. , ,
. , ,
, .
, , 7.4, . -
20
& 7
. . , 7.4.
7.4.
, , , ,
, , , . ,
. , .
%
1970 1985
..
...
44,1
55,2
33,7
72,0
66,9
41,5
21,1
40,7
21,4
23,1
10,6
2,1
3,5
4,9
0,8
2,3
0,7
3,1
0,8
9,7
: Franklin Allen Douglas Gale (2001), . 52, Comparing Financial Systems, The
MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
,
.

. , 1980 , 4.4, ,
.
, . []. .

=

= MPK*P []

=

= A*i []
[]
= *i []
,
, P.
MPK
Marginal Product of Capital.
(, , , ,), MPK
, , . , .
MPK, ,
. .

(, ...). . , , -
21
MPK
.
MPK:

.
. &
Toyota 1000
. 1000
( ), Toyota , 500,
500 ( ).
[]
i, . i .
, i, , *i [].
, . , .
, , , , . , . . , .
, []. ,
i, *i [].
, , , .
, , ,
,
.
, , .
.
, . .
, . ,
. , : , ,
. ,
,
. ,
,
,
, ,
, .
, .
, , ,
. , , .
, , :
. .
.
, , .
(7.6).
22
& 7
7.5. ;
i . ,
, , , (, ,).
Datastream 100
, 50 .
, 2003, 45
. (harmonized)
..., - . , The Use of Harmonized Interest Rate Statistics,
ECB Monthly Bulletin, 2005, . 8592.
, .
.
. ,
. .
i ,
.

.
10 11.
(7.6) ,
. (7.2).

~ +
(d>0)
(7.6)
I = I MPK , INVx di

~
I ,
d.
d . ,
I = d i
(7.6)
= *

i (>0) , < 0, . , ,
d. ,
i > 0, d = d i < 0
b m, d . .
23
. &
.
, G, .

t, , TR. , , ,

, .
.
SG.
S G = TA G TR INT =
tY3 G TR INT
12
(7.7)
( 7 .5 )

, Yf, .
, ,
. , , ( 7.4 7.2 ). ,
, , .
.
7.5.

Yf
. :

, -
24
& 7
. , . .
13.3 , , R. , R ,
, , R , .
, .
, , ,
.
.
, , , . , . ,
.
, . 13.
(7.8).
+
X = X Y f , R
(7.8)
,
+
( ) = ,

. ,

. , ,
.
, . , , .
.
, , Y, , R.
, , .
.

7.6 7.9.
25

..
. &
7.6.

. :
+ +
IM = IM Y , R
(7.9)
,
+
+

( ) = ,
, (7.9)
~ +
IM = M R + mY

(0 < m < 1)
(7.9)
~
M .
b , m, , . ,
,
.
,
IM = mY
(7.9)
= *

, Y, m
, IM. ,
Y, m = m .
26
& 7
,
. , ,
,
. , , ,

.
, .
CA = NX + NFI = X IM + NFI
(7.10)
. , :
. ,
= .
AS = AD
(7.11)
, .
AS = Y
(7.12)
, ,
,

Y.
(7.1), 7.2) (7.9), , AD,

, Y.
~
~
AD = (C + b(1 t )Y + bTR + bINT ) + I + G + X ( M + mY )
144444244444
3
14243
- (7.2 )
(7.9 )
~
~
AD = (b (1 t ) m )Y + C + bTR + bINT + I + G + X M
(7.1)
, , , b m,
, t.
AD = (b (1 t ) m )Y
(7.1)

AD = (b(1 t ) m )Y = b (1 t ) Y m
Y
{
123
IM
14YD
243
C

, , . -
27
b, t
m.
. &
, Y,
9 : t YD
9 : b C
9 : m
IM.
,
AD
= b (1 t ) m Y = b (1 t ) Y m
3
Y
1
424
1
424
3
IM
YD
1442
44
3
C
, > 0,
. , C > 0,
, > 0. ,
, AD > 0. , b(1 t ) m > 0. 0 < b < 1 0 < t < 1,
0 < b(1 t ) m < 1.

, & 7.3.
28
& 7
7.3. &

AD = C + I + G + X IM
(7.1)
~
~
= (b(1 t ) m )Y + C + bTR + bINT + I + G + X M
AD = (b(1 t ) m )Y
(0 < b (1 t ) m < 1)
+
+
C = C YD, EYD, UNC , W
+
~ +
= C EYD,UNC ,W + bYD
(0<b<1)
( 0 < b(1 t ) < 1 )
S P = YD C
S P = YD C = (1 b)YD
(7.1)
(7.2)
+
~ +
= C EYD,UNC ,W + b(1 t )Y + bTR + bINT
C = b YD = b(1 t ) Y
(7.1)
(7.2)
(7.2)
(7.2)
(7.3)
(0<1b<1)
YD = Y TA + TR + INT
= (1 t)Y + TR + INT
(7.4)
(7.4)
(0<1t <1)
(7.4)
TA = tY
(0< t <1)
(7.5)
NFI = 0
TR, INT:
(7.6)
(0<d)
(7.6)
= di
(7.6)
SG = TA G TR INT = tY G TR INT
(7.7)
+
X = X Y f , R
(7.8)
+ +
IM = IM Y , R
(7.9)
~ +
= M R + mY

(7.3)
YD = (1 t)Y

+
I = I i , MPK , INVx
~
= I MPK , INVx di
(0<m<1)
(7.9)
IM = mY
(7.9)
CA = NX + NFI = X IM + NFI
(7.10)
AS = AD
(7.11)
Y = AS
(7.12)
, & .
29
. &
7.4
,
, , .
- . , (), ()
().
,
. ,
.
, , ,
~
C. , . , ~
~
I M . , X. 8.4.
.
, P. -
. , , , .
. . ,
, .
,

.
, . 5.3
.
5.4 .
. ,
, EYD, . , , , , .
. ,
, . , EYD.
, . ,
, . : , , ,
( 5.4).
:
.
. .
, , . ,
= 3% imin = 0,
rmin = imin = 3%. , ,
. ,
,

30
& 7
. , ,
. ,
.
, ,
.
. 1990 ( 5.13).
, . ,
, . , .
, ,

.
. ,
. 7.7.
, , ,
, .
, ,

.
, , .
,
, .

x y ,
y , ,
x .
7.7.

31
,

.
. &
. .
7.1 7.3.
, . ,
,
, , , . , , .
.
, . , .
,
. , , ,
.
. , ,

5
- .
(credit
.
channel)
, .
, .
, .
, , , , , , , , , . , .
, , ,

1990, : .
, ,
. , ,
. , , . .
,
. ,
.
. ,
, .
- : , . . 10.5.
Antzoulatos, Angelos A. (1994). Credit Rationing and Rational Behavior, Journal of

Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 26, No. 2, May, . 182-202.
32
& 7
1 2 7.8.
7.3.
7.8.

YD

EYD
UNC
i
,
, ,
. :

3, 4 5 .
, 7.3 7.8
,
.
. ,
, . , YD . , , .
Laursen-Metzler-Harberger effect.
, ,
. , , ,
, .
, , , .
. 5.3 Exchange-Rate-based Stabilization Programs 14 15.
, , .
.
33
. &
.
. ,
, :
.
, :
, ,
.
, , ,
, . , ,
.
, , ,
. ,
.
1990 .
, ,
. , , .
.
. , ,

, . .
. , . , , SP + SG = I + CA, CA ( 2.4).
, .
.
, S < I, , CA < 0,
.
, CF . .
, , , , , , .
: , .
, , , . , , .
, - . .
. ,
, , , , , .
34
& 7

. ,
14,
, . ,
:
.
,
, . ,
.
. , ,
. / ,
.
.
. , , .
,
.

, , .
. , :
- , .
, ,
, .

James Tobin q, Tobins q.
.
/ .
q=
q ,
, ...
. , , . . .
, q ,
.
q. ,
MPK (7.6).
.
/, ,
. ,
MPK (7.6).
,
.
35
. &
. , , . -
1999.
, , ,
,
, .
, , .
, ,
.
, - .
.
, , .

, , .
.
, , . , /. , ,
. , - .
7.8, 7.9 . 7.4,
1 4 .
7.9.

MPK
INVx
4

1
2
. :
36
& 7
. . ,
,
MPK. ,
, ,
,
.
.
. ,
.
,
. ,
, .
,
,
. .
,
. ,
, . /
. . , , .
. ,
- - . . , ,
. .
.

, ,
. .
, ,
.
. .
, . ,
.
. , .
, .
. ,
.
7.5,
.
, . ... ,
7.6.
37
. &
& .
,
, ,
.

. , . , ,
, .
, , Utopia $10 NoValue NV8/$.
NV80 (=$10.*NV8/$). NoValue NV10/$,
NV100 .
, ,
:
. , . ,
( ) ( ).

.
.

Uncertainty
Tariffs
Disposable Income, Expected
Corruption
Subsidies
Aggregate Demand
Exchange Rate
Nominal
Real
Variables
Endogenous
Exogenous
Households
Credit-Constrained
Myopic
Rational
Marginal Propensity to
Import
Consume
Productive Capacity, Idles
Environment
Institutional
Political
Wealth
UNC
EYD
AD
S
R
m
b
38
& 7
Quotas
Access to Credit
Aggregate Supply
Exchange Rate (FX) Stability
Relative Cost
Technical Progress
Excess Inventories
Life-Cycle Hypothesis
Laursen-Metzler-Harberger
Laursen-Metzler-Harberger effect
Stock Market
AS
INVx
.
1.
,
, UNC, , EYD, .
2.
. AD
= AS = Y, .
3.
4.
3, 4 5 7.8.
5.
7.4, ,
7.9.
6.
. 1980 ( 4.4).
,
.
7.
AD = AS = Y,
) , ,
,
)

.
8.
39
. &
................................................................................. 1
7.1 ............................................................................................................................... 1
7.2 .................................................................................................... 2
7.3 & ..................................................... 7
7.4 .................................................................................. 30
....................................................................... 38
............................................................................................................................. 39
................................................................................. 1
7.1 ............................................................................................................................... 1
7.2 .................................................................................................... 2
. ..........................................................................................................................................2
7.1. ......................................................... 2
. ............................................................................................3
7.2. .................................. 3
7.1. , ........................ 3
. ....................................................................................................................................4
7.2. ...................................... 4
...............................................................................................................................................5
. ............................................................................................................6
7.3 & ..................................................... 7

. ..........................................................................................................................7
. .......................................................................................7
7.3. ................................................. 8
7.1. ................................................... 9
7.2. , ............................................... 11
7.1. ......................................... 12
7.3. ........................................ 13
7.4. ................. 15
7.2. b .................................................. 15
7.3. b .................................................... 16
................................................................................................................... 17
. ............................................................................................................................................ 18
. .................................................................................................................................. 19
7.4. .............................................................. 20
7.4. ........................................... 21
7.5. ; ................................................... 23
. .................................................................................................................... 24
. ...................................................................................................................................... 24
7.5. ................................................................. 24
. .................................................................................................................................... 25
7.6. ................................................................ 26
. ................................................................................................................. 27
. ......................................................................................................................................... 27
7.3. & ........................................ 29
7.4 .................................................................................. 30
. ............................................................................................................................... 30
7.7. .................................................................... 31
7.8. ...................... 33
. .................................................................................................................................. 34
7.9. ............................................... 36
. ......................................................................................................... 37
& . ......................................................................... 38
........................................................................ 38
.............................................................................................................................. 39
40

7
.

.
. .

.
, , .
26
.
, MS-Word, 3 ,
antzoul@unipi.gr.
.
/
1.
,
, UNC, , EYD, .
...

,
.
2.
. AD = AS
= Y,
.
UNC
AD = C + I + G + X - IM
AS = AD
Y = AS

....
3. .
1 :

, INVx
, I
AD = C + I + G + X - IM
AS = AD
Y = AS

2 :

, MPK
, I
AD = C + I + G + X - IM
AS = AD
Y = AS

4.
3, 4 5 7.8.
3
W

( )

5
,
,

( )
,
, .
5.
7.4, ,
7.9.
.
6.
.
1980
( 4.4).
,

.

5
4.
, CA,
.
8 10, -
, ,
, , ,
, .
7.
AD = AS = Y,
) , ,
,
)

.
, ,

( 4
). .
.
10, .
8.
,
,
.
, .
, !
& 8

,
There are three kinds of writings in economics: Greek-letter, up-and-down, and
airport.
(Paul Krugman, The Age of Diminished Expectations, The MIT Press, 1994, p. ix)
: -, , .
Paul Krugman, , Massachusetts Institute of
Technology MIT Princeton, 2008,
. .
Greek-letter economics

, ,
. , .
,
.
up-and-down economics , , .
, , , . , , .
, .
airport economics (best-sellers)
.

. ,

, , , . ,
.
, , . .
, :
Greek-letter economics up-and-down economics , , . , airport-economics.
. &
8.1

Keynes

: .
, , IS/LM,
The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money
John Maynard Keynes.
1936, 1930 (
6.8).

.
,
,
, , .
, .

. , 1960
(
6). ,
, Robert Lucas,
1995.

, .
. ,
,
.
, ,
. ,
,
. .
:
,
.
, , ,
, ,
,
, ,
, , .
,
.
.
,
. ,
.
.
:
, , . , , , .... ,
: , , , , ....
& 8
.
,
99 . Lo ( ), , 3% . Lo .
, , ,
, . 7.2 7.4,
. ,
,
. , .
,
IS/LM. , , , , .
, . , ,
,
.
, , . ,

up-and-down economics. , Greek-letter economics ,
.
8.2
.
, -
, -
.
.
7.3.
.
8.1
. , .
, .
,
, (
[7.7]), . .

, .
. &
8.1.

AD, C, YD, SP, TA, SG, IM, NX, CA, AS, Y
EYD,
UNC,
MPK
.

. , UNC MPK .
~
9 EYD UNC C
( [7.2 ])
9 MPK ( [7.6]).
. . ~
() C
( [7.2 ]), .
NFI (=0),
TR, INT
. ,
.
INVx
. , . ( [7.6]).
I, i

IS/LM .
.
t, TR. , .
X, R
Mundell-Fleming.
, R, ( [7.8])
( [7.9]). ~
M .
Yf
.
Mundell-Fleming . ( [7.8]).
: :
, .
.
.
,
, 7.3 7.6
8.1. , ,
.
& 8
8.1.

TR
YD
~
C
/ t
R

EYD
UNC
i
,
, ,
. :
. : , .
~
. C .
C

YD
TR
/ t

EYD
UNC
i
,
, ,
. &
.
, . , ,
, , , .
. ,

-
& = & =
AD = AS = Y
(7.1), (8.1)
. .
(7.1 )
(7.11), (7.12)
~
~
AD = (b(1 t ) m )Y + C + bTR + bINT + I + G + X M =
AS =3
Y
14444444444
4244444444444
3 1424
:

,
b, t, m
:

.
YE =
1
~
~
C + bTR + bINT + I + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
(8.1)
(8.1),
~
~
, C , TR, , , G, X M , b, t, m.
, , .
7.3.
(8.1) .
8.3 . , ,
( 7.3), .
0 < b(1 t ) m < 1
1
>1
1 b(1 t ) + m
(8.2)
. , . 8.2.
& 8
8.2. &
: AD = Y
AD
AD
AD
E
AD(Y ) = (b(1 t ) m )Y
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
I +G+ X M
~
~
+ C + bTR + bINT + I + G + X M
AD: b(1 t) m
: AD(YE) = YE.
45
Y
,
, (Y, AD), AD = Y . AD,

AD = AD(Y), 45. AD =
AD(Y) (7.1) , . ,
, AD() = Y.
8.3 .
, , , .
8.3.
, ,
AD
ADB <YB
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
I +G+ X M
AD
ADA>YA
45
h h h h h
g g g g g

, ADA
> YA:
ADA,

,

,

.
,

, AD<Y.
Y
,
. &
. . 8.3,
: ADA(YA)
AD(Y)
45.

. , , ,
.
.
, . , ,
, . , , .
.
8.1. &
, b, t m,
. :
b = 0,8
~
C =3
t = 0,25
m = 0,1
TR = 2
INT = 3
I = 15
G = 21
X = 16
~
M =9
NFI = 0
. , , , , , , , .
.
(8.1)
YE =
=
~
~
1
C + bTR + bINT + I + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
(3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 + 15 + 21 + 16 9) = 2 * 50 = 100
1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1
.

= t*YE = 0,25*100 = 25
(7.5)
DE = YE TA + TR + INT = 100 25 + 2 + 3 = 80
~
CE = C + bYDE = 3 + 0,8*80 = 67
(7.4)
SP,E = YDE CE = 80 67 = 13
(7.3)
SG,E = TAE G TR INT = 25 21 2 3 = 1

~
IM E = M + mYE = 9 + 0,1*100 = 19
(7.7)
CAE = X IME + NFI = 16 19 + 0 = 3
(7.10)
DE = CE + I + G + X IME = 67 + 15 + 21 + 16 19 = 100
(7.1)
ASE = YE = 100
(7.12)
(8.1)
Y = AD

SP,E + SG,E = I + CAE
(7.2)
(7.9)
& 8
.
(7.1), , AD, , Y:
~
~
AD(Y ) = (b(1 t ) m ) * Y + C + bTR + bINT + G + I + X M
= (0,8(1 0,25) 0,1) * Y + (3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 + 15 + 21 + 16 9 ) = 0,5 * Y + 50

,
, , 8.2.
, , ,
.

A
80
100
120
AD = 50 + 0,5*Y
90
100
110
&
AD
110
CA = 55
I = 15
G = 21
X = 16
IMA = 17
90
50
AD
E
: 0,5
45
80
h h h h h
100
g g g g g
120
CB = 79
I = 15
G = 21
X = 16
IMB = 21
Y
,
, .
8.4. 1 2 ,
, ( [7.4]) ( [7.9]), .
8.4 , ,
.
, , C, I, G, X ,
. .

.
. &
8.4.

2
Y
1
TR
YD
MPK
/ t
INVx

Yf

EYD
UNC
i
,
, ,
. :
. : , .
:
1. 1 2 , (
[7.4]) ( [7.9]), .
2. , .
10 .
& 8
8.3
b, t
m, ,
. , .
, , .
.
, ,
.

, .
,
.
, ,
.
, (8.2), YE
~
C , TR, INT, G, I X , ~
t M . , 8.2.
YE =
1
~
~
C + bTR + bINT + I+ G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
(8.3)
YE
~
~
C , TR, INT, G, I X , t M .
8.2
,
.
,
. .
.
, G ,
.
.
. G
YE =
1
G
1 b (1 t ) + m
(8.4)
(8.4) (8.1)
G.
11
=

=

=

. &
YE
G
1
1 b(1 t ) + m
, G+G G
(8.1). ,
YE =
> 1
YE > G.
~
1
1
~
C + bTR + bINT + I + [G + G ] + X M = YE +
G
1 b(1 t ) + m
1 b(1 t ) + m
, G, , b m, , t. b t m
,
, . . , ,
, ,
(7.1) .
, (8.4) ,
, YE > G. , G = 1, 1, . , .
, 7.3,
, G, , b, t m. 8.2 . ,
(8.4), .
12 .
& 8
8.2. G

8.4 (8.3)
AS
AS = Y
(7.12)
AD
, AD = AS
(7.11)
YD
(7.4)
YD = (1 t )Y +TR + INT
~
C = C + bYD
TA
(7.5)
IM
TA = tY
~
IM = M + mY
(7.9)
NX, CA
NX = X IM
CA = NX + NFI
(7.10)
SP = YD C
(7.3)
SP
SG
(7.2)
C = b*YD. 0 < b < 1,

. ,
.
SG = t Y G TR INT (7.7)

, .
(7.7) (8.1). .
, ,
SP, CA, I .
,
S P +SG ? = 1
I4
+2
CA
.
4
3
: , G , .
.
, 8.4.
,
AD G
AD. AD 45 ,
YE.
8.4 , YE = YE , (8.4). .
13
. &
8.5.
G
AD
AD
0
0
AD
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
I +G+ X M
45
E
Y0
Y
,
YE
. : , ( ):
AD = CE + I + G + X IME = AS = Y.
G, : 0.
0, 45, G.
ADA0 = CE + I + (G+G) + X IME = ADE + G = YE + G > YE
AD0 = G
, 0
0.
, G.
, ,
.
. , ,
,
: 0 ( 45,
0 00 .).
, , . ! . Y0 = G, ,
(7.4),
(1 t)0,
, (7.2),
C1 = b(1 t)Y0.
14 .
& 8
, (7.9),
IM1 = mY0.
, , (4.1),
AD1 = (b(1 t ) m )Y0 ,

1.
1, 45,

AD1 = (b(1 t ) m )Y0 = (b(1 t ) m )G.

, 0 < b(1 t) m < 1, 7.3,
. ,
01 0.
AD1 < AD0 = G
, , 1, , , ,
, , ..
, .
8.3. G

YDi =
(1-t)Yi-1
Ci =
bYDi =
b(1-t)Yi-1
ADi =
Ci + Gi + IMi
Yi = ADi
Gi
IMi =
m Yi-1
(b(1 t ) m ) Y0 =
(b(1 t ) m) G
(1 t ) Y0
b(1 t ) Y0
m Y0
(b(1 t ) m) Y0
(1 t ) Y1
b(1 t ) Y1
m Y1
(b(1 t ) m) Y1
(1 t ) Y2
b(1 t ) Y2
m Y2
(b(1 t ) m) Y2
(b(1 t ) m) Y2 =
(b(1 t ) m) 3G
(1 t ) Y3
b(1 t ) Y3
m Y3
(b(1 t ) m) Y3
(b(1 t ) m) Y3 =
(b(1 t ) m) 4G
(1 t ) Y4
b(1 t ) Y4
m Y4
(b(1 t ) m) Y4
(b(1 t ) m) Y4 =
(b(1 t ) m) 5G
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
(b(1 t ) m) Y1 =
(b(1 t ) m) 2G
.
.
.
8.3, , n
Yn = (b(1 t ) m )n G.
15
. &
0 < (b(1 t ) m ) < 1,
n . ,
. ,
(b(1 t ) m )n 0
n Yn 0 n .
.
. ,
.
, Yi, (8.4).1
, ,

.
( 8.4: 0),
.
: AD(Y), , , , . .
, ,
.
8.6. ,
,
. ,
, . ,
2 1 8.4.
(8.4), G b, t m.
(7.1).
8.6.

AD = C + I + G + X IM = AS = Y
YD
, G
. , , t, , b,
, . ,
m, , -
, b(1 t) m = . n ( 1++2+3+4+5+ + n )*G. (

1++2+3+4+5+ + n ) ( 1 n+1 )/( 1 ). 0 < < 1, n+1
n . ...
16 .
& 8
.
.
8.2. G
8.1, G = 1, G
= 21, G+G = 22.
2 ( [8.2]),
1
1
1
=
=
=2
1 b(1 t ) + m 1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1 0,5
(8.4)
2*G = 2*1 = 2.
. 8.3.
( ), 0 1. 7.3. , 0 1.
,
. , 0 ADA0
G+G = 22 (=21+1) G = 21 .
G =1
AD
0: G+G = 22
ADA0 = 67 + 15 + 22 + 16 19
= 101 > YE = 100
1: CA1 = 67,6. IMA1 = 19,1.

ADA1 = 67,6 + 15 + 22 + 16 19,1
= 101,5 > YA1 = 101
1 1:
50+1
AD
0:
YB0 = AD0 = 101
YB1 = AD1 = 101,5
AD
G = 1
50
:
CE = 67. I = 15. G = 21. X = 16. IME = 19
ADE = 67 + 15 + 21 + 16 19 = 100 = YE
45
100
102
Y0 = 1
Y
,
YE = 2
17
. &
8.4 .
YDi =
(1-t)Yi-1
Ci =
bYDi =
b(1-t)Yi-1
IMi =
m Yi-1
Gi
ADi =
Ci + Gi +
IMi
Yi = ADi
(1-0,25)*1
= 0,75
0,8*(1 0,25)
*1 =0,6
0,1*1 = 0,1
[0,8*(1 0,25)
0,1]*1 = 0,5
[0,8*(1 0,25)
0,1]*1 = 0,5
(1 0,25)*0,5
= 0,375
0,8*(1 0,25)
*0,5 = 0,3
0,1*0,5 =
0,05
(1 0,25)*
0,25 = 0,1875
0,8*(1 0,25)
*0,25 = 0,15
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
[0,8*(1 0,25)
[0,8*(1 0,25)
0,1]*0,5 = [0,8*(1
0,1]*0,5 = 0,25
0,25) 0,1]2*1= 0,25
[0,8*(1 0,25)0,1*0,25 = [0,8*(1 0,25)- 0,1]*0,25 = [0,8*(1

0,025
0,1]*0,25 = 0,125 0,25) 0,1]3*1 =
0,125
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
(
):
= t*YE = 0,25*102 = 25,5
(7.5)
D = YE TA + TR + INT = 102 25,5 + 2 + 3 = 81,5

~
C E = C + bYDE = 3 + 0,8*81,5 = 68,2
(7.4)
SP,E = YDE CE = 81,5 68,2 = 13,3
(7.3)
SG,E = TAE G TR INT = 25,5 22 2 3 = 1,5

~
IM E = M + mYE = 9 + 0,1*102 = 19,2
(7.7)
CAE = X IME + NFI = 16 19,2 + 0 = 3,2
(7.10)
(7.2)
(7.9)
DE = CE + I + G + X IME = 68,2 + 15 + 22 + 16 19,2 = 102 (7.1)

ASE = YE = 102
(7.12)
1 (G = 1).
, .
, , . , (8.2), AD(Y) 8.3, .

. , , , .
.
. , .
18 .
& 8
. 8.5 , INT,
. , ,
AD 8.2.
, AD .
, , 7.
, (8.4).
AD = AD(Y).
8.5.

&
YE
AD
G G > 0

1
G > 0
1 b(1 t ) + m
~
~
C C > 0
EYD
UNC
W
~
1
C > 0
1 b(1 t ) + m
TR TR > 0

b
TR > 0
1 b(1 t ) + m
I I > 0
i
MPK
INVx
1
I > 0
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
X > 0
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
~
M < 0
1 b(1 t ) + m
X > 0
Yf
R
~
~
M M > 0
R
t t > 0

(1 b(1 t ) + m )2
t < 0

AD.
:
~
~
1. G , C , TR, I , X , M , t
.
2. t
(8.1) t.
8.5
,
.
~
~
, C , TR, , M
G. , TR, .
, .
19
. &
, , ,
, .
~
C .
, EYD , , UNC , , W , : , , ,
7.3, C, IM, TA, AD, AS YD, SG, SP,
NX CA. ,
MPK, i INVx.
. 8.5.
: , TR ,
, t .
~
~
, C , C , , ,
AD(). ,
~
~
M M .

G. 8.6,
G
C
~
C
~
M
TR :
AD() bTR. 8.5 b
.
, t t t > t,
AD b( 1 t ) m b( 1 t ) m. 8.6
.
8.7.
AD,
AD
AD(Y ) = (b(1 t ) m )Y
~
~
AD
AD
AD: b(1 t) m
t t > t
AD
E
AD(Y ) = (b(1 t) m )Y
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
I +G+ X M
~
~
AD: b(1 t) m
45
20 .
Y
,
& 8
. ,
. , .
TR,
( [7.4]):
YD = TR.
, YE,
YD = (1 t)YE + (TR+TR) + INT = YDE + TR.

, ( [7.2]).
C = bYD = bTR.
.
, ,
AD = C = bYD = bTR,
.
, G,
, TR, . TR
: bTR. , (1 t)TR, . , , G,
.
.
0<
b
1
<
1 b(1 t ) + m
1 b(1 t ) + m
144244
3
144244
3
,
. , (7.4),
YDE = b( 1 t )YE + TR + INT.
, ,

.
8.3. TR t
8.1, , ADE = YE = 100,

YE = 100
TAE = 25
YDE = 80
CE = 67
I = 15
G = 21
X = 16
IME = 19
ADE = CE + I + G + X IME = 100 = YE

.
, 100, TR = 2 TR =
3 (=2+1),
9 80
21
. &
YDE = (1 t)YE + TR + INT = ( 1 0,25)*100+3+3 = 81
9 CE = C + b YDE = 3 + 0,8*81 = 67,8

9
AD E = CE + I + G + X IME = 67,8 + 15 + 21 + 16 19 = 100,8
, , 0,8:
YE = 100 < 100,8 = ADE.

,
8.2 G = 1:
ADA0 = 101 100 = 1.

.
, 100,
t = 0,25 , , t = 0,30,
9 25 TAE = tYE = 0,30*100 = 30
9 YDE = TAE + TR + INT = 100 30 + 2 + 3 = 75

~
9 CE = C + b YDE = 3 + 0,8*75 = 63
9
AD E = CE + I + G + X IME = 63 + 15 + 21 + 16 19 = 96
, , : YE = 100 > 96 = ADE.
8.1. AD
, x, y z:
y = 0,5 x + z
, .
, ,
.
,
: . ,
, .
z
= 1 z = 2.
z = 1 y = 0,5 x + 1
z = 2 y = 0,5 x + 2
, x = 2. z =1 y 0,5*2+1 = 2, z =2 0,5*2+2 = 3.
, z y = y(x).
/
7
6
y = 0,5 x + z
5
z=2
z=1
3
2
1
2
(7.1).
22 .
& 8
9
9
9
9
AD(Y) y(x)
Yx
b(1 t ) m 0,5
~
~
z C + bTR + bINT + I + G M
, , ~
~
C + bTR + bINT + I + G M AD.
, .
8.6
.
.
8.6 .
8.6. &

~
G
t
TR
I
C
i
EYD
MPK
UNC
INVx
W
X
Yf
~
M
R
AS, AD
YD, C
TA
IM
NX, CA
SP
SG
. AD(Y)

:
1. : SP + SG = I + CA.
2. , AD .
8.4
, : ,
. (8.3) 8.2 8.4. , ,
, .
, , .
(8.2) 8.2 8.4.
23
. &

. , 7.2 7.4,
, . , ,
.
, 8.7
8.8 .
7.8, 7.9. ,
.
8.8.

YD
~
C

EYD
UNC
i
,
, ,
.
:
. : , , .
, 7.4, : .
, , , . ,
( 7.3 b
).
,
, .

, , . , ,
, , ( - , 4.4).
24 .
& 8
8.9.

MPK
INVx
.
:
. : , , .
7.4, , , .
,
. ,
.

.
. , , , .
,
. , ,
.
,
.
6 .
, ,
~
, , C . , .
,
, ,
~
M .
25
. &
, . ,
8.3.
, 8.10 , .
8.10.

~
C ;
G,t,TR;
X;
~
M ;

, .
8.1,
. 8.10,
;

;
.
, . , , 7.4, .
26 .
& 8
.
. W .
, EYD UNC .
, , , Gf ,
: , , , Yf .
:
Gf Yf
, 6 8.7.
8.7. 6
,
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
AD 8.1.
8.5 8.2.
, , AD 45.
. , ,
7.3.
.
: , 6 .
6.3 6.4 .
8.5

Shock
Subsidies
Equilibrium
Multiplier
Excess Demand
Excess Supply
8.6
1.
,
,
.
2.
, ,
.
3.
(8.4) 7.3,
8.6.
27
. &
4.
, , ,
SG, , CA, :
, G , , ,
, .
5.
( ).
, ,
;
6.
.

. , .
.
7.
( ). , ,
: .

.
8.
. , ,

, (pegged) . , , . , , .
; , , ;
, ,
.
9.
. 1990,
Maastricht , . . .

,
Maastricht.
10. 30 2008,
, Economist
, , ,
.
,
.
. , ,
.
28 .
& 8
, .................................................................................... 1
8.1 ............................................................................................................................... 2
8.2 ........................................................................................................... 3
8.3 .............................................................................. 11
8.4 ................................................................... 23
8.5 ....................................................................... 27
8.6 ............................................................................................................................. 27
, .................................................................................... 1
8.1 ............................................................................................................................... 2
8.2 ........................................................................................................... 3
. ......................................................................................................................3
. ...................................................................................3
8.1. ....................................................... 4
8.1. ......................... 5
. ......................................................................................................................................6
8.2. & ............................................. 7
8.3. .................................................................................... 7
8.1. & ....................................... 8
8.3 .............................................................................. 11
8.4. ................................................ 10
. ......................................................................................... 11
8.2. G .................................................. 13
8.5. ........................................................... 14
8.3. G .................................................. 15
8.6. ........................ 16
8.2. G ........................................... 17
. .............................................................. 18
8.5. ...................................................................... 19
8.7. ............................................ 20
8.3. TR t ........................ 21
8.1. AD ................................................ 22
8.6. & ...................... 23
8.4 ................................................................... 23
8.8. .................................... 24
8.9. .................................................... 25
6 . ..................................................... 25
8.10. ......................................................... 26
8.7. 6 ................................... 27
8.5 ....................................................................... 27
8.6 ............................................................................................................................. 27
29
& 9
IS/LM
&
As the model became more dominant theoretically, it lost its Keynesian character
with respect to practical policy issues. Friends and foes of Keynes alike used it to
promote or confute Keynesian policy prescriptions. Monetarist conclusions and
Keynesian conclusions were presented as special cases of the more general IS/LM
framework.
However, to present-day macroeconomic theory the IS/LM model is an obsolete instrument, defective for its lack of microfoundations and neglect of expectations.
On the other hand, because no other model has proved so pedagogically adaptable, the IS/LM model remains the cornerstone of undergraduate textbooks. In
business and government and other non-academic environments, the IS/LM has
also survived. Partly, this is because it was so fully developed for practical and
econometric applications
What we see, then, might be characterized as the rise, fall, and strange persistence and uncertain future of the IS/LM model.
,
.

.

IS/LM.
, , IS/LM
,
.
,
, IS/LM
. ,
- , IS/LM .

, , , , ,
IS/LM.
2003 HOPE Conference.
The IS/LM Model: Its Rise, Fall, and Strange Persistence, Duke.
, ,

IS/LM.
Greekletter economics .
( Greek letter economics
.) , .
,
: .
:
,
. &
. Greek letter
economics .
9.1
IS/LM John Hicks 1937,
Keynes. ,
,

IS/LM
. ,
,
...
1937 ,
,
.
, IS/LM, , .
, . , -
, ,
,

, .
, . ,
.
, IS/LM .
, 7 8,
: -
,
. ,
. ,
3
17.
, IS/LM,
, ,
.
, ,
.
,
. , ,
, ,
.
,
. ,
,
,
, , ,

...
.
, .
, ,

. ,
.
& .
.
,
.
& 9
,
, , ,

. , , .
, ,
,
.
.
,
.
(fault lines) ,

.
;
( 7.2),
IS/LM. ,
, .
9.2 &
.
.
7.3.
, , ,
(7.6), ,
(7.6).

~ +
I = I MPK , INVx di
(d>0)
(7.6)
.
.
8.1 .
, 7.4,
, 9.1.
9.1 (7.6), , ,
.
9.1.
, () ()

~
I
MPK
INVx
MPK
INVx

&
.

&
.
. &
. :

9.2.
. : , .
,
& 9.2,
.
.

&
.
(7.1), (7.6) (7.12),

& (7.11)
~
~
~
Y = AS = AD = (b(1 t ) m )Y + (C + bTR + bINT + I di + X M )
123 1
424
3
123
.
.
. ( 7.6 )
1444444444424444444444
3
( 7.12) ( 7.11)
( 7.1 )
,
YA =
1
~
~
~
C + bTR + bINT + I di A + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
(9.1)
, :
, YA iA.
&
.
Y i. .

,

() .
.
,
: Y i.
, ,
,
, YE i. , 7.3,
,
.
, ,

. , , Y,
, i.

Y i, ,
.
, ,
, : ,
, iA, , ,
(9.1). , (YA, iA)
.
, .
& 9
YA =
1
~
~
~
1 b(1 t ) + m
, .
YA =
~
1
~
~
1 b(1 t ) + m
, &
. ,
(Y, i)
:
(9.1).
,
(9.1) .
Y =
d
1
i =
I
1 b(1 t ) + m
1 b(1 t ) + m
(9.1)
i
1 b(1 t ) + m
=
<0
Y
d
, b,
d m,
(9.1)
,
i,
, b, d m,
t. 8.5.
. ,
.
9.2. 9.2
8.
b, t, m d,
iA YA
9.2. , iA YA
, ,
& . ,

.
iB, YB:
.
, ,
IS, (Y, IS:

i) & .1
,
=
,
I = S.
(7.2), (7.6) (7.9), IS

. , ,
.
. &
9.2. IS

AD
AD
0
0
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
~
I diB + G + X M
AD
I = di > 0
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
~
I di A + G + X M
.
:

,
iA.
:

(YA, iA).
.
45
Y
,

iB < iA.
iA
i = iB i A < 0
iB
Y =
1
I > 0
1 b(1 t ) + m
IS
B
Y
,
IS ,
= , = S. X = IM = NFI
= 0 , , CA = 0. , S = I + CA,
, S =
I.
9.1. IS
8.1.
~
. I = 20 d = 1, (7.6)
~
I = I di = 20 1 * i

b = 0,8
~
C =3
t = 0,25
m = 0,1
TR = 2
INT = 3
d=1
~
I = 20
G = 21
X = 16
~
M =9
NFI = 0
& 9
(9.1)
YA =
=
~
~
~
1
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
(3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 + 20 1* i A + 21 + 16 9)
1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1
iA = 5%,
YA =
=
~
~
~
1
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
(3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 + 20 1* 5 + 21 + 16 9) = 2 * 50 = 100
1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1
7.3,
:
= t*Y = 0,25*100 = 25
(7.5)
D = Y TA + TR + INT = 100 25 + 2 + 3 = 80
~
C A = C + bYDA = 3 + 0,8*80 = 67
(7.4)
(7.2)
SP,A = YDA CA = 80 67 = 13
(7.3)
SG,A = TAA G TR INT = 25 21 2 3 = 1

~
I A = I di A = 20 1 * 5 = 15
(7.7)
IM A
(7.6)
~
= M + mY A = 9 + 0,1*100 = 19
(7.9)
CAA = X IMA + NFI = 16 19 + 0 = 3
(7.10)
DA = CA + IA + G + X IMA = 67 + 15 + 21 + 16 19 = 100
(7.1)
ASA = YA = 100
(7.12)
i = 3%.
YB =
=
~
~
~
1
C + bTR + bINT + I di B + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
(3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 + 20 1* 3 + 21 + 16 9) = 2 * 52 = 104
1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1
7.3,
( )
= t*Y = 0,25*104 = 26
(7.5)
D = Y TA + TR + INT = 104 26 + 2 + 3 = 83
~
C B = C + bYDB = 3 + 0,8*83 = 69,4
(7.4)
SP,B = YDB CB = 83 69,4 = 13,6
(7.3)
SG,B = TAB G TR INT = 26 21 2 3 = 0

~
I B = I di B = 20 1*3 = 17
(7.7)
(7.2)
(7.6)
~
IM B = M + mYB = 9 + 0,1*104 = 19,4
(7.9)
CAB = X IMB + NFI = 16 19,4 + 0 = 3,4
(7.10)
DB = CB + IB + G + X IMB = 69,4 + 17 + 21 + 16 19,4 = 104 (7.1)

ASB = YB = 104
(7.12)
. &
(7.6) i = iB iA
= 3% 5% = 2% 8.5. .
.
.
IS
AD
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
~
I diB + G + X M
= 3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 +
20 1 * 3 + 21 + 16 9
= 52
AD
I = di
AD
= 1 * (2)
=2>0
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
~
I di A + G + X M
= 3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 +
20 1 * 5 + 21 + 16 9
= 50
45
100
iA= 5%
104
CA = 67
IA = 15
IMA = 19
i = i B i A
= 3% 5 %
= 2% < 0
iB= 3%
1
Y =
I
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
=
2=4>0
1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1
100
CB = 69,4
IB = 17
IMB = 19,4
IS
104
Y
,
IS, ,
. ,
, :
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9 .
(7.2), (7.6) (7.9).
& 9
IS, (9.1),
.
.

, &
. 8.5,
. 8.5 G,
.
i < 0.
I=-di>0
d
AD = C + I + G + X IM = AS = Y
YD
IS, :
, > D, ,
AD > Y. , 0 9.2,
.
ADA = ASA, 0
. , ,
, . 9.1.
M .
AD ,
IS.
,
AD ( ) IS ,
. , 8.1
AD .
, ,
, G .
, . ,
, IS .
, , IS, (YA, iA).
9.3.
(Y, AD).

,
IS: .
.
9.3.
, G
,
. , IS ,
. IS , IS.
,

&
.
. &
Y = Y A Y A =
1
G
1 b(1 t ) + m
. ,
9.3,
(, AD).
,
AD ( 8.5) , ,
. , . IS
, IS.
9.3. IS

AD
AD
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
~
I di A + G '+ X M
AD
G = G 'G > 0
~
C + bTR + bINT +
~
~
I di A + G + X M
45
Y
,

IS.

IS.
:
,
(YA,
iA).
:
G
G = G + G
:

iA, G

: YA >
YA.
:

, ,
(YA, iA).
A
1
Y =
G > 0
1 b(1 t ) + m
IS
IS
A
Y
,
.
, , (YA, iA), &
( ):
ADA = CA + IA + G + X IMA = ASA = YA

G,
:
10 .
& 9
ADA = CA + IA + (G+G) + X IMA = ADA + G > ADA = ASA = YA

, , ,
: .

Y =
1
G
1 b(1 t ) + m
, .
IS.
IS
:
, . ,
.
8.5 ,
9.1 .
9.1. IS

G G > 0

1
G
1 b(1 t ) + m
~
~
C C > 0
EYD
UNC
W
~
1
C
1 b(1 t ) + m
TR TR > 0

b
TR
1 b(1 t ) + m
I I > 0
MPK
INVx
1
I
1 b(1 t ) + m
X > 0
Yf
R
1
X
1 b(1 t ) + m
~
~
M M > 0
R
1
~
M
1 b(1 t ) + m
t t > 0

(1 b(1 t ) + m)2
IS:
,

.

.
:
1.
, IS
.
2. t,
(9.1) t. , ,
IS, .
11
. &
9.2. IS
, IS,
G = 21 G+G = 21+1 = 22.
, 9.3
.
.
IS
1
1
G =
*1 = 2
1 b(1 t ) + m
1 0,8 * (1 0,25) + 0,1

YA = + = 100 + 2 = 102
YA (9.1).
9.3
(
):
= t*Y = 0,25*102 = 25,5
(7.5)
D = Y TA + TR + INT = 102 25,5 + 2 + 3 = 81,5

~
C A = C + bYDA = 3 + 0,8*81,5 = 68,2
(7.4)
SP,A = YDA CA = 81,5 68,2 = 13,3
(7.3)
SG,A = TAA G TR INT = 25,5 22 2 3 = 1,5

~
I A = I di A = 20 1 * 5 = 15 ( )
(7.7)
(7.6)
~
IM A = M + mY A = 9 + 0,1*102 = 19,2
(7.9)
CAA = X IMA + NFI = 16 19,2 + 0 = 3,2
(7.10)
DA = CA + IA + G + X IMA = 68,2 + 15 + 22 + 16 19,2 = 102
(7.1)
ASA = YA = 102
(7.12)
(7.2)
9.3
:
.
, .
, Y, , i.
+
= L , = L ( ), ()
, ,
. , , ,
: ,
, . , ,

. ,
, ,

.
12 .
& 9

.
, , ,
. ,
. .
, , .
, (9.2).
& ,
=
.
+
Md
= L Y , i = kY hi
P
(k>0, h>0)
(9.2)
(9.2), M d ,
, d / P ,
.

,
. , ,

.
, 3.000 . ,
10 , 30 .
100
, : .
k h
. ,
kY.
Md
= kY
P
k h
(9.2)
, i
hi.
Md
= hi
(9.2)
P

& , .
k h .
9.1.
Markuss Knell Helmut Stix, Three Decades of Money Demand Studies.
Some Differences and Remarkable Similarities (Working Paper 88, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, 2004), 900 , 196
1972 2002.
(9.2).
. ,
,
-0,30. 1%
, 1%
0,3%.
13
. &
,
,
. ,

= =
,

.
,
, , Y, ,
,
.
9.3.
8, 4/.., ..
, 10 ...

(4/..*10..) / 8 = 5.
,
.
,
( 5.2 ),

M d V = PY
Md 1
= Y
P
V
V , PY
, .
, :
. ,
.
,
. ,
,
V = V(i) V/I > 0.
(9.2). (9.2), ,

.
9.2. ;
, ,
, , ,
(phone banking) (e-banking),
, .
, ,
.
14 .
& 9
, 1960 2000
/
2
M1
1,5
M2
M3
0,5
0
1960:1
1970:1
1980:1
1990:1

,
. , M1, M2
M3, .
, 1 1,5
6 1960, 1 1998,
.
2 3 .
, (instability)
,
.
9.3 .
, , M d , ,
, P, , M, .
, M,
.
, 11 12.
.
,
= ,
(9.3).
(Y, i)
.
M Md
=
= kY A hi A
P
P
(9.3)
. &
,
(Y, i). k / h.
15
. &
, ,
( / P) = kY hi.
,
: (/P) = 0. ,
(/P) = 0 kY hi = 0 i /Y = k / h.
IS, LM
, k h.
. , ,
. 9.4.
, (YA, iA), (9.3).
.
, (Y, iA), Y =
YB ,
: M d / P = kY,
.
9.4.
LM
LM:

Liquidity
Money,
LM
B
Md
= hi < 0
12P3
Md
Md
+
=0
12P3 12P3
A
Md
= kY > 0
12P3
.,
kY+(-hi)=0.
,
LM
i/Y = k / h.
Y
,
,
. i
, hi,
, kY.
,
kY = hi
. ,
,
.
kY = hi LM
i / Y = k / h.
9.4. LM
k = 0,25, h = 0,5 M / P = 20. (9.3) :
16 .
& 9
9 = 90: 20 = 0,25*90 0,5*iA iA = 5
9 = 100: 20 = 0,25*100 0,5*iB iB = 10.
LM
LM
Md/P = 0,25*100 0,5*10

= 20 = M/P
10%
Md
= hi = 0,5 * 5 = 2,5
12P3
Md/P = 0,25*90 0,5*5

= 20 = M/P
5%
A
Md
= kY = 0,25 * 10 = 2,5
12P3
Md/P = 0,25*100 0,5*5

= 22,5 > 20 = M/P
90
100
Y
,
, (, iA) = (100, 5),
M d / P| = kY hiA = 0,25*100 0,5*5 = 22,5 > 20 = M / P

22,5 20 = 2,5 = 0,25*(100 90) = k.

, i hi = 2,5.
,
0,5*i = 2,5 i = 5.
LM
, k, , h.
, k = 0,3 h = 0,4,
.
, Y = YB , k
,
( [9.2])

. LM. ,
, k i ( i / )
, Y = YB , k
, h
( [9.2])
. LM.
9.3.
, , h
LM . , LM .
, V.

M
1
= kY = Y
P
V
k =
1
V
17
. &
, Quantity Theory of Money, .

. ,
,
. 10.7 .
,
.
, , :
. , ,
;
.
,
%
1
%M % P = % + %Y
V
V, = . ,
, ,
.
,
%M = + %Y

.

2,5% - 3,0%, ,
5% - 6%, . ,
10%,
, , 100%,
, %
%.
, --
. , % = 5% %M = 100%, = 95%
100% = %. %M = 1000%, = 995%
1000% = %M.
,
,
,
.
, %Y
= 4%, %M = 7%.
= 3% (= 7% 4%).
9.4. LM
LM
. LM, 9.4,
. ,
, / .
,
. ,
. ,
, .
, LM ,

,
.
M .
LM
, M/P, , M/P,
18 .
& 9
LM. IS (
8.1 AD ).

M P. , ,
.
,
, .
LM, (YA, iA).
:
M d / P| = kYA hiA = M/P.
M, M > ,
, ,
M / P > M / P = M d/P| = kYA hiA.
, ,
,
.
9.5
Y = YA

kY = M / P = ( ) / P.
, . LM,
LM.
9.5. LM

LM

LM.
LM
M
P

LM.
A
M
P
= kY > 0
Y
,
, , YA,
. ,
, M / P = h(iA iA ).
LM.
, LM
.
9.5. LM
19
. &
9.4,
M / P = 1. , , LM,
(, iA) = (90, 5).
. ,
20+1 = 21, k hiA = 0,25*90 0,5*5 = 20.
5%, Y
, kY = 0,25*,
, 1. = 4. ,
1 = / P = k = 0,25* 1 = 0,25* = 4
To , . LM
.
LM
LM
5%
LM
A
1=
P
= kY = 0,25 * 4
A
90
94
Y
,
, ,
. , .
LM.
3%.
, , LM
, . , P
, .
9.4
.
. , YE iE,
,
: b, t, m, , ,
d (9.4) (9.5).
.
(9.1) (9.3).
, YE iE
7.3.
:
YE =
~
~ d M
~
C + bTR + bINT + G + I + X M +
h P
(1 b(1 t ) + m ) + d k
h
1
20 .
(9.4)
& 9
iE =
1M
1
+
k
h P (
1 b(1 t ) + m ) + d
h
~
~ d M
~
(9.5)
h P
. 9.6,
IS LM. ,
(YE, iE), .
9.6.

M
LM

P
iE

IS LM

.

.
+
+ +

C~ EYD, UNC ,W . I~ MPK , INVx .
IS
+
+
~
G , t , TR . X Y f , R . M R .

IS/LM, 9.6 IS
LM, ,
. , , UNC ,
~
C , , IS ,
.
9.6. IS/LM
&
b = 0,8
~
C =3
t = 0,25
m = 0,1
TR = 2
INT = 3
d=1
~
I = 20
G = 21
~
M =9
X = 16
NFI = 0
k = 0,25
h = 0,5
M/P = 22,5
(YE, iE), (9.4)

(9.5). , (9.1) (9.3),
(9.4) (9.5). .
()
& , (9.1)
~
~
~
1
C + bTR + bINT + I di E + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
(3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 + 20 1* i E + 21 + 16 9)
=
1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1
= 2(55 1* i E ) = 110 2i E
YE =
21
. &
, (9.3)
M
= kYE hi E 22,5 = 0,25Y E 0,5i E
P
= 100 iE = 5%.
7.3
.
= t*Y = 0,25*100 = 25
(7.5)
D = Y TA + TR + INT = 100 25 + 2 + 3 = 80
~
C E = C + bYDE = 3 + 0,8*80 = 67
(7.4)
(7.2)
SP, = YD C = 80 67 = 13
(7.3)
SG,E = TAE G TR INT = 25 21 2 3 = 1

~
I E = I di E = 20 1* 5 = 15
(7.7)
(7.6)
~
IM E = M + mYE = 9 + 0,1*100 = 19
(7.9)
CAE = X IME + NFI = 16 19 + 0 = 3
(7.10)
DE = CE + IE + G + X IME = 67 + 15 + 21 + 16 19 = 100
(7.1)
ASE = YE= 100
(7.12)
9.7,
8.4. o 1 , ,
( [9.2]).
2 3
.
9.7 , ,
.
8.4,
C, I,
G X, , .
.
22 .
& 9
9.7.

TR
YD
MPK
/ t
INVx

Yf

EYD
UNC
i
Md / P
M / P
1
,
, ,
. :
. : , .
:
1. o 1 , , (
[9.2]).
2. 2 3 .
3. , .
23
. &
9.5

IS
LM

24 .

Money Demand
Nominal
Real
Transactions Demand for Money
IS Curve
LM Curve
Opportunity Cost of Money
Money Quantity
Quantity Theory of Money
Money Supply
Nominal
Real
Money Velocity
Md
Md / P
M
M/P
V
& 10
10
IS/LM (B)

. , ,
.
William McDonough,
( 1993 2003).
. McDonough,
,
.

,
,
.
,
. . McDonough,
,
- ,

,
. , , ,
,
. IS/LM.
10.1

.
, ,
,
, :
,
, , , .
, &
, 8. IS/LM,
,
.
.
,
.
,
,
,
. ,
,
:

,

. &
,
,
,
.
. , ,
,
.
, , :
,
. , Maastricht

- .
,
.
, ,
.
,
, , .

.
5.3 Exchange-Rate-based Stabilization Programs.
, ,
.
. . ,
.

.
.
, ,
: ,
.
,
.
.
, .
, ,

. .
, ,
. The sky is the limit.
10.2
(9.4) (9.5), 9.6,
IS/LM . , ,
,
.
,
10.1. 8,
. ,
,
.
& 10
10.1. 6
IS/LM
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
: , .

:
LM, &
IS.
, IS LM.

, iE.
,
7.3.
.
, 10.2
.
10.2. IS/LM

AD, C, YD, SP, TA, SG, IM, NX, CA, AS, Y, I, i
EYD,
UNC,
MPK
.

. , UNC MPK .
~
9 EYD UNC C
( [7.2 ])
9 MPK ( [7.6]).

.
.
()
~
C ( [7.2 ]), .
NFI (=0),
TR, INT
. ,
.
INVx
. ,
. .
I ( [7.6]).
.
t, TR.
, .
X, R

Mundell-Fleming.
, R, ( [7.8])
( [7.9]).
~
M
.
Yf
.
Mundell-Fleming .
( [7.8]).
. &
.
M , Y, i
, .
.
: :

, .
10.2 8
:
, , ,
i , . ,

. , , ,
, .
10.3
.
,
, , 10.1.
6.1.
. LM, , LM.
6.2. ,

& .
.
10.1.
,
& 10
i
LM
iE
LM
iE
IS
E
Y
,
6.3. ,
,
.

. 10.3.
. &
10.3.

10.1 (9.4)
10.1 (9.5)
AS
AS = Y
(7.12)
AD
, AD = AS
(7.11)
YD
(7.4)
~
C = C + bYD
TA
IM
NX, CA
TA = tY
~
I = I di
~
IM = M + mY
(7.2)
(7.5)
(7.6a)
(7.9)
NX = X IM
CA = NX + NFI
(7.10)
SP = YD C
(7.2) (7.4)
SP
0 M,
: , :
M Md
M > M
>
=
= kYE hi E
P
P
P
144444424444443

& 10
, Y ,
, i , .
, .
, :
,
. , , . ,
i
, . ,
, ,
& : .
.
. ,
i AD AS Y
, ,
,
( [9.2]),
Y i .
i ,
(9.4) (9.5).
YE =
i E =
~
~
~ d M
k
h P
((1 b(1 t ) + m ) + d
h
1
1M
+
h P
~
~
~ d M
h P
(1 b(1 t ) + m ) k + d
h
1
10.1.
9.6, = 22,5
= 24,5.
()
& , (9.1)
YE =
=
~
~
~
1
C + bTR + bINT + I diE + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
(3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 + 20 1* iE + 21 + 16 9)
1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1
= 2(55 1 * iE ) = 110 2iE

, (9.3)
M
= kYE hi E 24,5 = 0,25YE 0,5i E
P
= 104 iE = 3%.
7.3
(
).
= t*Y = 0,25*104 = 26
(7.5)
D = Y TA + TR + INT = 104 26 + 2 + 3 = 83
(7.4)
. &
~
C E = C + bYDE = 3 + 0,8*83 = 69,4
(7.2)
SP, = YD C = 83 69,4 = 13,6
(7.3)
SG,E = TAE G TR INT = 26 21 2 3 = 0

~
I E = I di E = 20 1*3 = 17
(7.7)
(7.6)
~
IM E = M + mYE = 9 + 0,1*104 = 19,4
(7.9)
CAE = X IME + NFI = 16 19,4 + 0 = 3,4
(7.10)
DE = CE + IE + G + X IME = 69,4 + 17 + 21 + 16 19,4 = 104
(7.1)
ASE = YE = 104
(7.12)
, , 2
.
,
Md
= kYE = 0,25 * (104 100) = +1
P
Md
= kiE = 0,5 * (3% 5%) = +1
P
,
.
,
,
,
, .
10.2.
10.2.

M M M d
>
=
P
P
P
M M >
= kYE hiE

AD = C + I + G + X IM = AS = Y
YD
&
,
LM. , IS/LM
, ,
.
& 10
10.1. &
10.2
:
, .
, , . ,

.
1990 ( 5.13
, 1999 2005), , ,
.
(credit channel) .

(7 2002) Lufthansa:
, .
, , ,
2000. 1.3
, .
, .
INVx /
MPK ,
. , ,
.
, ,
, .

.
, ,
,
.
, ,
: ,

, ,

,
, ,
.
,
,
, . ,
.
, , , ,
(too little, too late). ()
, () ,
.
,
: ,
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10.2.
, Econometric
Models of the Euro-area Central Banks (edited by Gabriel Fagn and Julian Morgan, Edward Elgar
Publishing Limited, 2005), ,
1%, 0,2%
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1999 2005.

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M d / P = 0,5Y 10i.
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M/P = 150.
i = 0

M / P = M d / P = 0,5Y 10i . ,
.
, M/P = 100, 200. M/P = 150,
300.
,
.
i = 0, LM.
10
& 10

M/P=100
10
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M/P=150
5
2,5
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
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100 150
.
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.
10.4.

ECB bows to rate pressure

After waiting more than a year, the European Central Bank finally moved on Thursday to shore
up the regions flagging economy by cutting its key interest rate by half a percentage point.
CNN.com, 5 2002.
Recession fears pressure ECB to cut rates
Financial Times, 15 2003.
ECB cuts eurozone rates to 2% to spur growth

The European Central Bank on Thursday cut interest rates by half a point to 2 per cent, their
lowest level since the second world war, amid growing gloom at the state of the eurozones economy.

growth eases pressure for cut in rates
.
Economic surge fuels prospect of rate rise

The Bank of England looks increasingly likely to raise interest rates again next month, after official figures yesterday showed the economy growing at its fastest rate for two years.
Trichet hints at eurozone rate rise as recovery gathers pace

Jean-Claude Trichet, European Central Bank President, yesterday fuelled expectations of a eurozone rate rise next month, saying vigilance was needed to contain inflation as the economic recovery gathered pace.
,
11
. &
Eurozone rates cut by a quarter-point to 2.5%
Eurozone interest rates on Thursday matched their lowest level since the European Central Bank
came into being after the banks governing council eased monetary policy in response to stuttering
growth in the 12-nation block.
This outcome will disappoint the narrow majority who had been looking for a 50 basis point reduction, and will leave the ECB open to criticism that it is not loosening policy sufficiently aggressively, said James Knightley at ING Financial Markets.
.

. , , .
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.

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12
& 10
10.4.

10.3 (9.4)
10.3 (9.5)
AS
AS = Y
(7.12)
AD
, AD = AS
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(7.4)
~
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SP
TA = tY
~
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(7.5)
(7.6)
(7.9)
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(7.10)
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0 < b < 1,
, .
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SG
(7.2)
(7.7)

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I 4+
.
2CA
43
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=
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h P
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h
1M
+
h P
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h P
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h
1
10.2. G
9.6, G = 2, G
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()
& , (9.1)
~
~
~
1
YE =
C + bTR + bINT + I di E + G + X M
1 b(1 t ) + m
1
(3 + 0,8 * 2 + 0,8 * 3 + 20 1* i E + 23 + 16 9)
1 0,8(1 0,25) + 0,1
= 2(57 1* i E ) = 114 2i E
, (9.3)
M
= kYE hi E 22,5 = 0,25YE 0,5i E
P

= 102 iE = 6%,
14
& 10
7.3
(
).
= t*Y = 0,25*102 = 25,5
(7.5)
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~
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(7.4)
(7.2)
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(7.3)
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~
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(7.7)
(7.6)
~
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(7.9)
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(7.10)
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(7.1)
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(7.12)
, ,
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, = 104. . ,
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10.4.

&
C
YD
AD = C + I + G + X IM = AS = Y
d
Md
= kYE hiE
P
:

10.5. ,
/
Keynes,
.
, ,
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2.400 Keynes.
15
. &
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14 20.
10.6.
,
/ .
Japan plans $51bn spending stimulus

Japans coalition parties on Thursday announced plans to present a 5.5 trillion ($51bn) programme of direct fiscal spending to the government as part of a 13 trillion package to sustain the
embryonic recovery in the worlds second largest economy.
Y
Keynes revisited

This week, with little ceremony, President George W. Bush quietly brought to a close more
- than a decade of US economic policy orthodoxy. By signalling his support for lower taxes and
higher public spending in the next year that could reach as high as $130bn 1.3 percent of gross
domestic product he threw the US administrations weight behind the proposition that a temporary deficiency in aggregate demand should be met by a shift in government finances from surplus
to deficit.
This argument, the simplest distillation of the teachings of John Maynard Keynes, has been
- out of favour in much of the industrialized world for 10 years or more. But with the worlds three

largest economies the US, Japan and Germany all in recession or close to it, the conventional
wisdom is up for re-assessment. At Saturdays gathering in Washington of finance ministers and
central bankers from the Group of Seven leading industrial nations, the burden of expectations will
fall on governments to play their part in averting global recession by cutting taxes and boosting
.
public spending.

,
, ,
.

2000 ( 1.3).

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2009 ???, ??? . , ???? ****.

: *****

.
16
& 10
,
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13.6
6.8 1930.
. 1970,
( 13.6),

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1992,

. 16.3 George Soros
1992.
10.7.
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G LM.
k/h. LM .
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.
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IS
IS
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,
= CE + IE + G + X - IME
= CE + IE + G + X - IME
,
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17
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, YE . ,

1
Y = YE Y =
G
1 b(1 t ) + m
8.
.
10.8.

Econometric Models of the Euro-area Central Banks
1% 0,6% ()
1,3% () . ,
0,6% () 1,4% (),
18
& 10
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1,0% .
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& 10
10.5.

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World Trade Center
, 11 2001, George Bush
.
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9
9
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(Consumer confidence indicator) Eurostat,
,
Economic Sentiment Index. (
) Industrial (40%), Services (30%), Consumer (20%), Construction (5%)
Retail trade (5%) confidence indicators.
, , 110,000
33,000 . The Joint Harmonized EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys User Guide,
Eurostat.
, Michigan,
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index,
.
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24
& 10
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,
Financial Times 11 1993. , ,
.
US growth falls sharply after exports weaken

US economic growth fell sharply in the first quarter to an annual rate of 1.8 per cent as consumer spending slowed and exports weakened, the Commerce Department said yesterday.
25
. &
The Clinton administration would work with its trading partners particularly Japan to expand
exports.
, , - ,

, (locomotive)
. ,

,
/ .
.
10.14.
US urges Tokyo to spur demand to ease Asia crisis
:
GJapan YJapan IMJapan XAsia YAsia

.. ,
,
, 1997 (
6.7 .. ).
,
. When America sneezes, the world
catches cold..
When America sneezes

The Feds interest-rate cut suggests that it is worried about a possible American recession. But if
it arrives, does the rest of the world have to catch cold too?
The Economist, 4 2001.
. , R , , X ,
~
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.
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( [7.9]).
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CA .
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10.15.
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,
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.
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26
& 10
.
1998
.
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.
, Warnings in Tokyo of pain to come Banks forced to cut domestic
lending further, Financial Times, 12 1998.
10.5
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. &
10.16. Bloomberg
Bloomberg - .

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10.6

Money Demand
Nominal
Real
Md
Md / P
Transactions Demand for Money
IS
IS Curve
LM
LM Curve
Opportunity Cost of Money
Money Quantity
Quantity Theory of Money
Money Supply
Nominal
Real
Money Velocity
32
M
M/P
11

The simple rules by which central banks lived have crumbled. A messier, more
political future awaits
IN THE world that existed before the financial crisis, central bankers were triumphant. They had defeated inflation and tamed the business cycle. And they had developed a powerful intellectual consensus on how to do their job, summarised recently by David Blanchflower, a member of the Bank of Englands monetary policy
committee, as one tool, one target. The tool was the short-term interest rate, the
target was price stability.
This minimalist formula fitted the laissez-faire temper of the times. A growing
array of financial markets could price risk and allocate credit efficiently. Central
bankers had merely to calibrate their interest-rate tools and all other markets
would automatically adjust. Central banks still cared about financial stability and
full employment, but could argue these were best served by stabilising prices
without, if you please, interference from politicians.
The financial crisis has upended all that. The business cycle was supposedly
subdued, yet the world is in the deepest recession since the 1930s. Deflation has
become a more dangerous enemy than inflation; with interest rates in many countries at or close to zero, central banks have had to reach for other tools.
More fundamentally, the collapse of stable relationships in financial markets
has forced central banks to make judgments they once left to the private sector.
From lenders of last resort, they became lenders of first resort when banks stopped
trusting each other. They are, increasingly, arbiters of which types of borrowers
get credit. With the reputation of market discipline in tatters, central bankers will
get vast new supervisory powers. All this is dragging central banks back towards
political turf from which they had been distancing themselves for years.
(The monetary-policy maze The Economist, April 23, 2009)
, ,
2007 ( 1.3).
Economist
.
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, Measurement of Monetary Aggregates Across Countries, by Yueh-Yun C. OBrien, Discussion Paper #2007-02, Finance and
Economics Discussion Series, Federal Reserve Board.
.
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, credit derivatives, .
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CreditBank . , 200,
, 10, , 190. , 120,
, 60, , 20.
12
CreditBank
(RE) 10
(D) 120
190

& 60

() 20
200 =
, ,
CreditBank, 15, 190 175.
, 200 (=10+190) 185 (=10+175). ( [11.7]).
15,
.
CreditBank.
, .
. 15
.
CreditBank .
CreditBank 15
(RE) 10
(D) 120
190 175

& 60

() 20 5
200 185 =
, 25, CreditBank .
165 (=190-25) 175 (=10+165). 180 (=120+60). -5 (20-25).
, 175
(=10+165), 180.
5 , -5.
Credit Bank .
13
CreditBank 25
(RE) 10
(D) 120
190 165

& 60

() 20 -5
200 175 =
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. , t=0, AB
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, t=1 100 t=1 t=2. .
,
14
t=0
= 100
t=1
= 100

= 100
t=2
= 100

.
, , .

,
.

.
( ),
. , 100 t=0,
100 t=1, .
, .
, .
.
, ,
, , . ,
.
, :
,
.
. ,
, ( ) ( ) .
,
. ( 11.3).
11.2,
, () ()
.
11.2.
t=0 = 100, ,
iL = 10%.
iD,t=0 = 9%.

iL - iD,t=0 = 10% - 9% = 1%.
15
, ,
100. , , .
t = 1 iD,t=1.
.
t=0
= 100
iL = 10%

= 100
iD,t=0 = 9%
t=1
t=2

= 100

= 100
iD,t=1
(iL iD,t=0 ) = 100(0,10-0,09)
(iL iD,t=1 ) = 100(0,10-iD,t=1)
t = 0, , , iL, , iD,t=0.
, , , iD,t=1, . .

iD,t=1 iD,t=0:
1. , , iD,t=0 = iD,t=1.
.
2. , .., iD,t=1 = 8%. iL - iD,t=1 = 10% - 8% =
2%.
3. , .., iD,t=1=11%. (): iL - iD,t=1 = 10% - 11% = -1%.
, t = 0, ,
t = 1, t
= 0 .
. ,
, .
. , , t =
1 11.3, . , .
, , . . /, ,
,
. , , ,
, , , , . .
16
,
. 11.4 11.7.
11.3.
11.1,
7, CreditBank 7, 120 113.
7, 193 (=113+60+20).
.
7 ,
10 3. CreditBank . .
, : / .
CreditBank 7
(RE) 10 3
(D) 120 113
190

& 60

() 20
200 193 =
.
17.
CreditBank 17, 10, . , , , 7 (=17-10).
.
CreditBank: ,
, , , .
, , , ( 11.6)
( 11.2).
11.1. !
,
, CreditBank,
?.
17
CreditBank 17
(RE) 10 0
(D) 120 103
190 ?

& 60

() 20 ?
200 ? =
7 CreditBank
15. 8 (=15-7).
, ,
, .
, 20, .
, .
.
, , , (lenders of last resort), .
11.4.
,
.
(FX risk), (country risk), (market risk), (technological risk) (operational risk).
.
: .
,
, , .
.

, . ,
, . , (long),
/ (short).
, ( ) :
, .
, ( )
: -
18
, .
1. .
$100.000. S = 0,8/$, $100.000*0,8/$ = 80.000.

9 0,769/$, $100.000*0,769/$ = 76.900
9 0,833/$, $100.000*0,833/$ = 83.300.
2. .
$1.000.000. S = 0,8/$, $1.000.000*0,8/$ = 800.000.

9 0,769/$, $1.000.000*0,769/$=769.000
9 0,833/$, $1.000.000*0,833/$=833.000.
, . ,
, .
CreditBank
. .
, .
CreditBank ,
. . .
.
.
. (sovereign or country risk),
.
,

. 2.3 .
.
.
9
1960 , 2 .
9 1980, , , .

.
(repudiation). (rescheduling), .
9 . , , , ,
.
.
, . 2
(developing countries), (less developed countries LDCs) , , (emerging markets).
19
, .
, .
. . , , ., . ,
,
(trading) .
.
, ,
, , Citibank,
- .
,
.
, ..,
.
.

, , .
,
, , ,
,...
.
. , , , .
/
.
,

.
,
, , .
, , . , , (off balance sheet items), ,
.
1995 Barings, 230 ,
. , .
. , 25 ,
.
Murphy ,
, , .
11.4.
11.1, 15, 60 75.
, CreditBank, 20 5.
20

.
CreditBank
(RE) 10
(D) 120
190

& 60 75

() 20 5
200 =
, CreditBank.
H .
.
, ( [11.6]).
.
. , ,
, .
. .
11.5.
re = 0,10, , 10% .
.
, , 100, = +100,
100 . .
. , ,
, . , , .
100 , (11.6).
, . ,
(11.7).
.
100.
, 100. .
21
+100

+100
: 100 .
.
100
+100
1.
, Bank1.
:
, 100. .
, .
100
+100 100
+100
Bank1, , . , Bank1 100, .
+100
+100
9 Bank1 +100
+100 100
Bank1
100 ( ) 100 ( ).
Bank1
(RE)
+100
(D) +100
22
D1 = +100 = H.
( [11.1]).
2. Bank1
re = 0,10, Bank1 . , 90% , 90. (
.)
Bank1 = (1 re )*( )
, Bank1,
.
Bank1, 90 ( ), 90 .
Bank1
(RE)
+100
(D) +100
+90
+90
, ,
, Bank2, 90 ( ) ( ).
Bank2
(RE)
+90
(D) +90
Bank2, , : . , Bank1 90
Bank2. .
+100
+100
9 Bank1 +10 (=+100 90)
9 Bank2 +90
Bank1 90
( ) 90 ( ).
100.
Bank1
(RE)
+10
(=+100 90)
(D) +100
+90
+90 90
Bank2 :
23
Bank2
(RE)
+90
(D) +90
+90 90
,
D2 = +90 = ( 1 re )*D1 = ( 1 re )*H
( [11.1]).
3. Bank2
re = 0,10, Bank2 .
Bank1 , Bank2 90% , 81, ,
Bank2 = (1 re )*( )
, Bank2,
.
Bank2, 81 ( ), 81 .
Bank2
(RE)
+90
(D) +90
+81
+81
, ,
, , Bank3, 81 ( ) ( ).
Bank3, , :
. , Bank2 81
Bank3. .

+100
+100
9 Bank1 +10 (=+100 90)
9 Bank3 +9 (= +90 81)
9 Bank3 +81
, , Bank2
Bank2
24
(RE)
+9
(=+90 81)
(D) +90
+81
+81 81
Bank3
Bank3
(RE)
+81
(D) +81
,
D3 = +81 = ( 1 re )*D2 = ( 1 re )2*H.
( [11.1]).
4 . Bank3
, Bank3, ,
72,9 .
, , ...

(11.1)
= CU +D
, CU = 0, ,
= D1 + D2 + D3 + D4 + .... = +100 + 90 + 81 + 72,9 > +100 =

, (11.6), , ,
, .
, ,
n
M = D1 + D2 + D3 + L + Dn
= H + (1 re)H + (1 re )2 H + L + (1 re)n1 H = 1 + (1 re ) + (1 re)2 + L + (1 re)n1 H

=
1 (1 re)n
1 (1 re )n
H =
H
re
1 (1 re )
1
H
re
, re = 0,10, (10 = 1/0,10) .

. , . .
11.4 .
H . , , , , , , .
25
, , , , :
.
() . , / . . , .
- .
,

, - .
. .

.
, , .

.
.
,
.
, ,
. , ,
: , , .
.
. . -
. .
, : ,
, ,
.
, .
,
. , , ,
.
11.6.
.
, , .
. BankA 10, BankB .
, BankA 90,
BankB 100.
, BankB .
26
BankA
(RE) 10
(D) 90
90
() 10
100 =
BankB
(RE) 0
(D) 90
100
() 10
100 =
iD = 3%, iL =
5%. .
BankA
4,5
2,7
1,8
BankB
5,0
2,7
2,3
BankB BankA, 2,3 1,8.

.
, , . BankB
( 11.3) ,
BankA.
, BankA , ,
.
. , , BankA,
.
BankB 4,9% 3.1%. 4,9, 2,79
2,11.
,, . .
, , , , ( 11.3), , .
,
.
27
. :
,
.
, , , . .
. , ( 11.3).

, . , , ,
.
. , , . ,
.
: , .
(
11.1).
. , :
, .
, :

. , , -, better safe than sorry.
11.5.

(11.8).
,
, .
.
,
.
, . , , ,
, ,
. , / .

.

. ,
& ,
, ,

.
,
.
28
, , . , ,

.
,
,
, .
,
. ,
, .., , . , , .
, , , , ,
. , . :
,
, .
,
.
, .

. , ,
. ,
.

.
, , , . , ,
.
,
. , , 3% , . , ,
. ( ), .
, , ; , , ;
, , ,
.
, ,
. . .
, ,
. , , ,
.
- . -
: -.
29
, , : BankA
: . , .

. , , , .
11.7.
11.7.
, ,
(= ),
.
,
, , . , ,
.
10.
(RE) 10
(D) 75
90

& 15
() 10
,,
.
.
, .
9 , .
9 , 10 75,
, . .
, ,
, .
, . , ,
.

.
, , 90 70.
:
(RE) 10 + 70
(D) 75
90 0

& 15
() 10 -10
80 (= 10 + 70), 75
. 5
30
. 15, .
10 (=5 15).
(-10).

&
. / .
& .
& -
, .
, ,
.
.
, -
, . . ,,
.
. .
. . ,

. , , / .

, .
11.8
4% .
11.8.
CreditBank 11.1. 4% , 7,6 (=4% 190).
-2,8 (= 20 3*7,6).
!
. -

.
,

.
, -
.

, . -,
31
-,
.
, , , , . ,
. , . , .
, ,
.
.
. , ,
.
, , , . , ,

. ,
, :
.
, : , .
, ,
.
, , . ,
, ,
. .
,
, : , ,
. .
, , , : , .
.

. 11.6.
11.6.
:
.

.
, , . , -
32
:
, , , .
: .
...
.
, : ,
.
, .
Akerlof (1970)
,
Akerlof (1970) .3
.
9 : , G, , B. , , .
9 G , B 1-. = 0,4. .
9 G AG, B .
9 . , AG > . AG = 100 = 80.

, , . AG > .
9 , , . , G
AG, B .
9 , ,
AG B. G.
.
9 B .
9 G
.
9 , ,
B .
, , ,
,
, , .
,
.
:
3
George Akerlof, The Market for Lemons: Quality, Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism,
Quarterly Journal of Economics 84, pp. 488-500, 1970.
33
: 4 (adverse selection) (moral hazard). ,

, .
,
, ,
. ,
,
.

.
.
.
() () . , .
.
.
, , .
, , .
. , , , .
, ,
, ,
.
, .
. , ( )
.
,
, ( ) ,

.
,
.
, , , , :
. 11.7.

. :
. , , .
11.7.

1.
2.
3. ,

4.
, 4
34
, ,

5.

6.
- , .
,
/ ,

9
9 (, , )
,

9 ( )
.
. , .
, .
/ .
, , , , .
, , /
, , , .
, (),
. , . , .
,
.
() , .
11.8. Too big to fail
, , . .
, .
11.5
, . ,
, ;

.
, ,
.

/.

, , ,
.
35

rR: .
rR = 0,10 (10%).
100 , 10 90 . rR = 0,05 (5%),
5 95 .
+
= = rR
, , (excess reserves).

.

= +
:
, ,
. , .
, ,
, .
,
, , . , .
11.9.
rR = 0,10. , , RiskyBank . 100, 10 (=0,10*100).
, , : +2 -2, 50%
. 50% 2, 102,
50% 2, 98.
+2, RiskyBank : 2 12 ( 11.5), . 102, 10,2 (=0,10*102) 1.8 (=12-0,10*102).
-2, . 98 8, 9,8 (=0,10*98).
, 1,8.
+5 -5,
.
, +5, RiskyBank
.
-5, . 95 5, 9,5 (=0,10*95).
, 4,5.
36
,
.
, , . ,
.
.
, , . . .
, , ,
. .
. :
, ,
. ,
.
, ,
, iD. .
iD o , , ,
. .
,
:
. ,
, i.
.
,
+
+
, ,
+ +
= , iD , i
+ + +
re = re rR , , iD , i
(11.9)
(11.4)
M=
1 + cu
+
+ +
re rR , , iD , i + cu
(11.4)
(11.4) , , , rR, , iD, -
37
, H.
.
11.6
.
11.4 , ,

( ) ( ).
, ,
(Money Markets), , (Capital
Markets), . , .
, , , , ,
,
. , . , , .
11.4.

. , , .
, , (commercial banks).
, , (mutual savings banks),
(credit unions),
, Savings & Loans Associations . , universal banks ,
38
, , . ,
(investment banking) (insurance).
: , ;

;
, , ; ;
,
, , . .
, .
. , . ,
. ,

,
, , .
11.6

.
11.5.
,
12% = rA,L
SLoans
AL
BL
9% = rB,L
4% = rB,D
2% = rA,D
BD
AD
QA
DLoans
QB
QE
39
10%,
QA, 12% 2%.
5%,
QB, 9%
4%.

:
9 (transactions costs),
9
,
(contract writing costs)
,
(state verification costs),
9 (contract enforcement costs), .

-.
, , , , ,
.
.
, . , , . ,
, () .
( ) ( ). ,
. .
11.5
40
11.6. &
,
:
9 : , ( ),
( ).
9 : (
), ( )
9 : , ( )
9 : ( ).

.
, .
=
, : ,
, ...
, .
. ,

.
,
.
, , .
, .
, .
41

.
.

. , , :
9
9 / (Pooling
Resources and Subdividing Shares)
9
9 &
9
9 .
.
. -
, ,
: , ,
.
11.4.
, ,
, .
&
: .
,
, ,
. ,
, ,
, .
&
: .
,
.
.
. ;
; ;
,
42
.
()5 .
11.9.

9 (matching) ,
,
9

,

.
, , (clearing
houses / financial supermarkets), (, , ), , , . , , .
, , .
,
, .
) (, , ), .
&
: //, .
, ,
, , ,
. , ,

.
) , , .
9 , .., , ,
&
: .
, .
9 /
&
: ,
, . -
1.1.1, , . 2-25 , . . ,
(2001).
43
.

&
.
9 , , ,
.
: (parallel loans) .
&
11.10. Parallel Loans

.
(..), , .. . ,
.
.

...
. ..
,
, .
, , .
. .

(brokers), .
,
.
.
() , , ,
.
,
, ,
. , , -
44
( risk premium), .

.
11.10.
100 4%. , 90% .
, , 100,
( 10%) 1100. ,
, 10%
9 100
9 0 0,9 (=90%) 1100 0,1 (10%)
0,9*0+0,1*1100 = 110
110 - 100 = 0,1, ., 10%.
100
, , 6% (=10%-4%).
100 ,
1 100 . . , , .
) ( ,
), 100 (0.9)100 = 0.000027 0.0027%
90%.
, , 100 , .
) , 3%,
4%+3%=7%.
, , , :
.
.
.
, .
& . ,
,

.
, , , , , . , , .
, . , , .
,
.
, , , , .
. .
45
, ,
(Moodys, S&P, Fitch IBCA), .
,
, ,

.
.

/ , , ,
.
. ABC
.
. .
, ;
) , ,
, , , .
& .
)
,

manager
.
9 , .
, , , ,
, ,
& : /
.
9 ,
, .
, .
.
& : .
,
, . ,
, , .
& : / . ,
, . ,
. .
46
& : ,
,
, .
, . ,
ABC, . , , 10 7
5 ..
; ! . .
. .
9 .
: ;, , 31 5 ; , 6:30;
;
9 .
10km ; 12,5km;
,
, . . , .
& :
.
, .

, .
, , .
,
. .
, .
: - , ,
.
, , . .
. . !
, , ,

47
. , . ()
(market discipline) , , , .
. , .
.
,
.
. , . , .
.
, , ,
, .

. -

, , , , , , , , , , .
: ;
;
, ,
, . . , , , ,
.
, . , , ( )
,
. ,
, .
15 .
, , ,
.
48
&
1:
.
&
2: , , .
. -
Barry Eichengreen, , 9%
(). , 9%
.
20% :
1997 2001.

2%
.
.
.
25, . 1.11,
, , .
49

.......................................................................................................... 1
11.1 ............................................................................................................................ 1
11.2 ............................... 3
11.3 ............................................................................... 7
11.4 ........................................ 25
11.5 ................................................ 35
11.6 .............................. 38
.......................................................................................................... 1
11.1 ............................................................................................................................ 1
11.2 ............................... 3
11.1. ....................................... 4
11.1. ............................................. 4
11.1. .............................. 7
11.3 ............................................................................... 7
. ...............................................................................7
11.2. ................................................................. 8
11.2. ............................................................................... 8
11.3. ............................................ 10
. ................................................................................. 10
11.1. .................................................. 12
11.3. ......................................... 14
11.2. .................................................... 15
11.3. ............................................... 17
11.4. ........................................................................................ 18
11.4. ........................................ 20
.............................................................................. 21
11.5. ........................................... 21
11.4 ........................................ 25
11.6. ........................................... 26
11.5. ............................................................... 28
11.7. ................................ 30
11.8. ........................................ 31
11.6. .................................. 32
11.7. ............................................. 34
11.8. Too big to fail ................................................... 35
11.5 ................................................ 35
11.9. ............... 36
11.6 .............................. 38
. .............................................................................................................................................. 38
11.4. ....................................................... 38
11.5. ....................... 39
11.6. &
.......................................................................................................................... 41
. .................................................................................................................................. 42
11.9. .............................................................. 43
11.10. Parallel Loans ............................................................... 44
11.10. .......................................................... 45
. ......................................................................................................... 48
50
& 12
12

Central banks combat inflation
( Financial Times, 11 2007)
.
central bankers, I assure you, are busy with many matters that are related tangentially if at all to monetary policy such as managing the payments system and
supervising banks.
(Alan S. Blinder, Central Banking in Theory and Practice, The MIT Press, 1998, p.
2)
... , ,
, , , , .
O Financial Times
: .
Alan Blinder,
Princeton - ,
:
, .
.
12.1
. , , ,
, .
. , , , .
, , ,

. , ( 10.9
).
, , , .
,

.
&
& 12
,
.
. ,
.

( 3.13 ).

,
,
.
. 10
too little too late.
, , . ,
, -.
,
, : . , ,

.
.
, , ,
. ,
, , , .
, . , , . , , , , , . , 5.3 Exchangerate-based Stabilization Programs.

,
. . , ;
(inflation target) (creative ambiguity)
;
.
;
;
, , . , .
, ,
.
.
&
& 12
. ,
. ; ;

; , .

.
!

, , : !
, .

. . , , , , , .
. ,

. ,
.
, .
, ,
. . , ,
. , ,
(misallocation of resources) . - , ,
.
11.3 , 12.4 . ,
, . ,
,
. ,
, .
,
. , ,
,
.
.
. . , , , ,
, , ,
, ...

:
.
&
& 12
, .
.
,
10.1 , ,
. , : ,
, , ...

. , , (financial fragility),
.
!
12.2

, , .
, Fed. .
.1
.
.
, ,
.
, : .
/ , , . , ,
,
,
. ,
, . ,
, .
10.9 .

. , ,
, . , , ,
1
,
( 2006).
Fed, The Federal Reserve System Purposes & Functions http://www.federalreserve.gov.
, , ,
(www.oecd.org), (www.bis.org), (www.imf.org),
.
.
&
& 12
.

,
-
.
12.1, , - (counter-cyclical)
(stabilization) .

,
. 10.9 .
. -, .
12.1.
, ,

/
-

-
, - . , , .
, , .
10.9 .
- , , , ,
. ,
, , ,
( 5.2.
). , , .
12.1. , Fed
.

. ,

.
, , - ,
.
The mission of the European Central Bank
.
&
& 12
The European Central Bank and the national central banks together constitute the Eurosystem, the
central banking system of the euro area. The main objective of the Eurosystem is to maintain price
stability: safeguarding the value of the euro.
( http://www.ecb.int/ecb/orga/escb/html/mission_eurosys.en.html)
- . .
The mission of the Eurosystem

The Eurosystem, which comprises the European Central Bank and the national central banks of the
Member States whose currency is the euro, is the monetary authority of the euro area. We in the
Eurosystem have as our primary objective the maintenance of price stability for the common good.
Acting also as a leading financial authority, we aim to safeguard financial stability and promote
European financial integration.
(www.ecb.int/ecb/orga/escb/html/mission_eurosys.en.html)
Fed . -
.
, Fed
. , , 3%. .
, (www.federalreserve.org),
The Federal Reserve System is the central bank of the United States. It was founded by Congress
in 1913 to provide the nation with a safer, more flexible, and more stable monetary and financial
system. Over the years, its role in banking and the economy has expanded.
Today, the Federal Reserve's duties fall into four general areas:
conducting the nation's monetary policy by influencing the monetary and credit conditions in the
economy in pursuit of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest
rates
supervising and regulating banking institutions to ensure the safety and soundness of the nation's
banking and financial system and to protect the credit rights of consumers
maintaining the stability of the financial system and containing systemic risk that may arise in financial markets
providing financial services to depository institutions, the U.S. government, and foreign official institutions, including playing a major role in operating the nation's payments system.
- .
, .
, . Annual Report 2009
The Banks core purposes

The Bank of England exists to ensure monetary stability and to contribute to financial stability.
Core Purpose 1 Monetary Stability
Monetary stability means stable prices and confidence in the currency. Stable prices are defined by
the Governments inflation target, which the Bank seeks to meet through the decisions delegated to
the Monetary Policy Committee, explaining those decisions transparently and implementing them
effectively in the money markets.
Core Purpose 2 Financial Stability
Financial stability entails detecting and reducing threats to the financial system as a whole. Such
threats are detected through the Banks surveillance and market intelligence functions. They are
reduced by strengthening infrastructure, and by financial and other operations, at home and
abroad, including, in exceptional circumstances, by acting as the lender of last resort.
The Bank will also play its part in promoting an open and internationally competitive financial centre
in the United Kingdom, using its expertise to help make the United Kingdom financial system more
efficient, where such efforts would be in the public interest and provided that they do not conflict
with its primary responsibilities or those of other agencies.
www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/annualreport/2009/corepurposes2009.pdf
.
&
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Marginal Lending Rate
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target
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George Soros 1992).
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13
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,
the stability-oriented monetary policy strategy.
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(intermediate targets) (ultimate
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14 .
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,
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12.6. , 1999 2008
, , ,
1999, 27 2009.
: ECB Annual Report 2009.

,
. .
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, : 0,25% (25 basis points) ,
0,50% (50, 50bp).
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15
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12.1. 10.9 .
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Taylor
.
- , iT, , , , r*, , *, , y y*. y , y* , .
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17
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, 0,5,
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Taylor, .
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O MCI . .
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18 .
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19
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12.12.
, Alberto Alesina Lawrence Summers 14 , 1955 1988.2 1970
1980 ( 3.1 3.2).
Alesina, Alberto and Lawrence H. Summers (1993). Central Bank Independence and Macroeoconomic Performance: Some Comparative Evidence, Journal Of Money, Credit, and Banking,
Vol. 25, No. 2, pp. 151 162 (May).
20 .
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22 .
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Fed 1980,
Paul Volcker, ( 3.2).

Thatcher. . Thatcher.
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Bundesbank.
,

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23
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& 12
b = 0,8
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.
ECB Annual Report 2009.
M3
24 .
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( [9.1]).
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www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/framework.htm.

20 , ,
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25
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27
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.
, . ,
. , , , .
2004, Financial
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2 - 6.
, , , .
,
Financial Stability Review

December
2004
June
2005
December
2005
June
2006
December
2006
June
2007
Large and Growing

US Imbalances
Over-indebted
Households
Opaque Hedge Funds
Over-valued Markets
Chasing Returns in
Credit Markets (CDOs,
MBS)
30 .
Legend. ECB: . IMF: . BoE: .
&
& 12
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, 2004 : ) , ,
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31
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, ,
FX Risk
Asset Risk
Credit Risk
Other
Interest Rate Risk

Liquidity
Risk
Bank Default Risk
. ASSET RISK, (CREDIT RISK)

(OTHER), , , , ,... . , 11.1.
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.
33
&
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34 .
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35
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.
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.

. ASSET RISK
2007, (subprime mortgage loans) ,
, Lehman Brothers 2008.
1997 , Savings & Loans Associations
1980 , ASSET RISK.
,
, . , .
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36 .
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, , ,
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37
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regulatory forbearance: , ,
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39
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12.4.
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40 .
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. 11.7.

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*** ***

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, : , , . 11.8 Too big to fail .
:
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42 .
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44 .
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.............................................................................................................. 1
12.1 ............................................................................................................................ 1
12.2 ...................................................................... 4
12.3 ................................................................................................................ 19
12.4 ...................................................................................... 29
12.5 ............................... 42
12.6 ................................................................................................................. 43
.............................................................................................................. 1
12.1 ............................................................................................................................ 1
12.2 ...................................................................... 4
...............................................................................................................................................4
12.1. ............................................................ 5
12.1. , Fed ... 5
..........................................................................................................................................7
12.2. Fed ......................................... 8
12.3. Fed.................................................. 9
. ................................................................................................................................. 11
12.2. ................................ 11
. ................................................................................... 13
12.4. ........................... 13
12.5. ..................... 14
12.6. , 1999 2008..................... 15
12.1. ......................... 16
12.7. ........ 17
12.8. ........................................................ 17
12.9. .................. 18
12.3 ................................................................................................................ 19
. .............................................................................. 19
12.12. ................... 20
;............................................... 22
12.10. Paul Volcker 1980............. 22
12.1. .......................................................................... 23
12.11. ............................... 24
Inflation Targeting ........................................................... 25
12.13. Inflation Targeting .......................................... 25
....................................................................................... 25
12.2. ......... 26
........................................... 28
12.14. ......................................................... 28
12.4 ...................................................................................... 29
........................................................................................................................................ 29
12.2. ............................................................................. 30
12.15. ......................................................... 30
12.16. ......................................................... 31
. .............................................. 32
12.3. ................................................ 33
12.17. .......................... 34
. ............................................................................................................ 36
12.18. ..................... 37
..................................................................................................... 38
12.3. ..... 38
12.4. 40
12.19. Lender of the Last Resort & ........... 40
12.5 ............................... 42
12.20. 2007 ................................ 42
12.6 ................................................................................................................. 43
.
45
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A.A. A VT~OUA(hoc;
rx~~a
13.1. 01 ruva.v.ay~aTlKi.~ laOTl~rE~ ora npwToatAl~a TWV New York Times

To ilioC; ~uvavnj TOV EVTUTTwalacr~6 Kal Trlv YTTEppoA~
ECUIS
400 .
Value of the Dollar Falls to

New Low Against the Euro
U,S. and 5 Allies Promise

to Seek Dollar Stability
23/211987
Central Banks Move to
Rescue An Ailing Euro
23/912000
300
I$
/$
1,6
21/9{2007
1,2
200
0,4
Surge in Dollar Surpri ses
Some. Worries Others
28/3/199 1
As Dollar Falls. Economic

Powers Blame Each Other
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~aUaKtlKIi ac,ia TOU Eyxwpiou vO).lio).laTos, ).IE ano,tl.,so).la TCt EyxOOPlll 1t:po'io~a va Ka
SiOTCt~al cruYKplTtKU aKpl~oTEpa. 01 ElaayroYES auc,uvOVTal, Ol E~ayroyts ).lEt6Jvo~al, Kal
W 100i;uylO TpExouaOOv cruvaUaywv XElPOTEPEUEl.
Luvo",i!;o~as, 11 avTCtyrovlOnKOtll'[Ct trov 1t:pot6~rov ).liac; xwpas E"'1pEui;Etat a1t:O
tOY EyxOOPlO 1t:All8ropla).lO, 1:OV 1t:All8ropI0).lO trov E).l1t:OP1KWV T'lS ETalprov, Kat ns ).IE'[Ct~O
AS T'lS ovo).laonKIis toon).lias
OwS aU11I.,s1t:tOPOuv Ot !psis aU1:Oi napUYO~ES Sa <pavEl apxtKu ).lE Eva aUYKEKpt).l
vo 1t:apUOEty).la. 'EaTro on T11V 1t:Epi080 I Eva EUpOl1t:a'iKO aUTOKiV'lTO KoaTi!;Et Pe.'
IO,OOO, EVW Eva A).lEptKavtKo ).lE 1t:apO).lOill TEXVtKU xapaKTllPtanKU KoaTi!;et P",1 =
$10.500. H ovo).laanKIi 100n).lta Eival S, = $1,20/.
Jill va ).l1t:OPOUV va aUYKpt80uv Ol n).lEs TroV Eupro1t:alKWV Kat Trov A).lEptKavtKwv au
TOKlVljTOlv, 1t:PE1t:Et va EK<ppacHouv 01:0 iOw VO).lta).la. AUTO yiVeTat ).IE XPT]01'] T'lS ovo).la
anKIis toon).lias Kat T'lS a,u~c; I'dJ6bov uvv TpUVV (E<paPlloYll 13.1).
LTD U1t:O Ec,tm0111t:apaoEtY).la, 11 n).lT] TroV Eupw1t:a'iKwv aUTOKtVljTrov Oe 80Aapla. ).IE
aU).l~OAO Pl." EiVat

Pl., = Pf" [ 1au,.] * S{ [$1 ] = I 0.0001 aUT.' $1,2 1 = $12,000 1aUT.
JEvtKOTEpa,
AA
AV T ~OU)"ClTOC;
TtI.lTl
Ey;(wpiwv
npo'(ov'[wv
crt Stvo NO~lcr~Cl
J [Ey;(wp[wvTtl.!"npo'iov'[wv J* [Ey;(wpiouTt~"
No~icr~ClW<;
crt Ey;(cDpto NO~tcr~Cl
crt stvo No~tcr~Cl
LW crUyKKPL~VO nClpo.Oty ~Cl, '[l1V nplooo I W A).IEptKClvLKo. ClUWKiVllW KOcr'[U;OUV Al

YO,[PCl OOAo.Pla Clno on W EupwnCllKo.. KClL a UpcD Vcl iX ).IE,[Cl'[pClni 11 n~" '[wv A~
PLKClvtKcDV ClUCOKtvlltWV, MAL Scl ",[clV <pS11vo'[PCl '[wv EupwnCl'(KcDv.
TE VIKO 0i 013.1 . r wKi TI t
H
m:
[Upw
TlIJ~ TWV
At..U:PIKOVIKWV
aUTOKIVr'}TWV
010 rropcioIYIJO TOU KupiwC;
K(I~tvou
(ivOl iOil IJ
$ 10.5001($ 1,2/E) = E8750. 0 UTTOAOYlcr~O<;, OTTW<; TTOVTO, yiVETOI ~ Ijlap~oy~ T~<; uTTAry, /lEB60ou TWV
rplwv. LUYKEKpIIJEVa,
$1 .20 aVlOAAocrcrovTOI
$1 0.500
npOKUTTTEI,
(~
E1 (aTTo
T~V IcroTl~ia
S, = $1 ,20/E)
crc 6oAdpIO TI~~ TOU aUTOKlv~TOU) aVTaMacrcrovTOI ~ Ex
Aom6v, 011
X
~ E I . $iO.500
$1.2
E8750
To AIJEPIKOVIKO aUToKivllTO (ivOi c:p8IlVOTEpa OTTO TO Eupwrro"IKo aVE~apTIlTO alTO TO VO!-.IIOIJO

alTaio yivuaI 'l CJuYKPIOIl
aro
A<; O1l~l(j)Si Ko.n. To on'w A).IEPlKUVtKo. ClucoKiVllW ciVClL <pS11vO,[PCl uno W EupoonCl'i
K6., ov 01l~U1Vl on '[u npcDw Scl K'[onicrouv VCAcD<; '[cl OU,[Pcl uno 04<; n<; uyop!:<;
crn<; onoi<; uvwyoovU;OV'[cll, ol1AClo", "llV A~ptKClVlKJl , H\V EupwnulKJl KaL n<; clyop!:<;
tphwv xooprov. TCl ouo uucoKiVll'[Cl, nClpon !:Xouv nClpo ~olU '[XVtKo. XClpClK"llPlcrnKo., Of:\!
EiVClL unoAu'[oo<; O ~Ola: ~la<p!:pouv crt o.Uu XUpUK"llPLcrnKo., onoo<;, <plvE'[au, 114K'[POVlKO
SOnAta~O, mnA.ov Sclp,["~U'[u" " W onoill OlKUlOAOYOUV Til Ola<pOpo. T11<; n~,,<; KCll m
1p!:nouv crw EupoonUlKo. vcl cruvuno.pxouv crn<; ol9vd<; clyOp!:<; ).IE 1U <pS11V01PCl A).IEPL
KUV\Ka,
Oo.vcw<;, onOluo"n01 ).IEloo01l T11<; n~,,<; 100v EupoonU'(Krov UUTOKLvll'[ooV !:vuvn TooV
Scl KUlual"crl '[cl nprolu 1!PLcrcrO'[PO uvcuywVtanKo. KCll Su Clu~"cr[ n<;
nWA"crt<; '[ou<; a ~o.po<; 100V oeU'[poov, crt OA<; '[t<; uyop!:<;. UalKo., onOLUo"no'[ uU~l1cr11
Scl EX[ W UVC[SlCl Un01A.cr~lU.
A~PlKClVlKcDV
Luv(Xi~oVTOC; TO
IOU Kupiwc;
,
T'lV TTEpiooo 1+ I TO EUpW UTTOTlIJOTaI
tvavTI TOU 6oAapiou J..lE lllV IOOTIJ..lia va J..lH..iJVETOI m: Sf! = $1 ,08/. 'Eorw, ETTio'lC;, on 6EV IJEToBdAAE
TOI oun: I"] m: i5oAdplo TlJ.l~ TWV AJ..lEPIKOVIKt1N OUTOKIV~TWV OUTE I"] m: EUpW TIIJ~ TWV EUPWTTO-IKWV
OUTOKIV~TWV _
A6yw TI"]<; UTTOTIIJ~aEw<; TOU EUPW, 'l aE i5oAaplo TI~~ TWV Eupwrro"lKwv OUTOKIVr'!TWV I_JElWVETOI
aTTo $12,0 00 cr f10,000'I .08$/E ~ $ 10.800. H 6,aljlopo T~<; TI~~I' TWV EupWTTa'lKwv KOI A~pIKavIKwv
OUTOKIV~TWV J..lEIWVETOI.
napaT~picrTE OTi ~ ~iwcr~ T~<; 61aljlopo<; T~<; TI~~S TTapa~vI, av~opT~TO aTTo TO vO~lcr~a
OTO aTlaia yfVETOI 'l OUYKPIO'l_ npo<; Errippwo~ Tau, ETTIBEBOIWOon OTi 'l aE EUpW TIIJ~ TWV A~pIKa
VIKWV aUTOKlv~TWV T~V mpio60 1+1 au~~e~KE O $10.500/(S I ,08/) ~ E9.722,2 aTTo $10.500/($1,2/) =
(8.750 T~V TTPO~YOU~v~ mpio60.
H crUyKPlcr11"oov 1t~rov Ylv'tUl Clnm4cr~Cl1tK01PU ~ XP"cr11 't11<; 4yo~Vll<; <IXC'f/K~C; rz

ODO ClUl0KtvlllooV.
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PfAfaut.)*S,[$/)
Ps,,[$/UU1 .)
npO<pClVro<;, ~iCl UU~l1cr11 t11<; aX,[tKJl<; n~"s, R t , Scl KUStato. lCl EupoonCllKo. ClUl0KiVll1U
Aly6lpO UVCClyooVl<HlKo., KCll ClVClmpo<pw<;.
KU1oo'[EPoo nupoumo.i;1UL EVU<; cruvouucr~o<; letolooV ).IE1ClPOA.roV 0 onoios nptAU~
Po.VEL ClU~l101l t11<; crt CUPcD n~,,<; lWV EupwnulKrov ClutoKtvll'[ooV (~nA. ~eAo<; f ), OVO ~U
a1l1Clj C1.vCl.1l~11a11 wu upw ("OICKlVO PEAO~ t ) Kat lIilu"1l"11~ a OOAUPlCL 1l~i]~ 1WV AII
PlKCl.VlKWV C1.UTOmvT]1WV (1[pUaLVO PEA.o~ ,J,). BpCl.ilu~, 01[OLOaoi]1[01 <nJvouCl.a~o~ 1I1CI.
POAOOV 0 01[OiO~ 00'lyi a C1.1l~11"1l111~ a)(1l1Clj~ n~i]~ KCl.8la1<1 1CI. EUpW1[C1.1K<1 C1.UWKiVT\1CI.
a)(nK<1 C1.KPlP01PCl. KCl.l Aty01pOaV1aYWVtClHK<i.
Tt~i] EUpW1[alKWV AU10KtvT]1COV a D.OA.<iPlCl. i
Tt~i] AlIptKCl.VlKWV AUTOKlvT]WlV
D.oA<iPtCi.
h ,(/am.]
J.
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P,,,[$/au1.]
J.
npaVlJaTIKI'J laOTllJia.
1[i1[oO eLvat 11 E~E1C1.a'l
1(OV 1[P010V1OlV ~ia~ )(WpCl.~ aDVOAtKu. H AOyt1Clj
eLvat 11 lOla. Movo 1[OU C1.V1i "11~ n~i]~ EVOS aUyKEKpt~EvOU C1.ya801l i] u1IT]pwiaS xp11al~'
1[o!Ghal K<i1[OLOS OEiKT11S n~wv ylCL VCI. aVn~ETOl1[lClTEi 10 1[pOpA11~a on Olll~S 10lV OlCl.
<poPOlV C1.ya8wv Kat U1IT]pwtffiv ~1aPUn0V1C1.l ~E OlCl.<p0pEnKO pue~o.
:1:E C1.U1i] "11V 1[Epi1[1Ola'l, 'l a)(En1Clj 1l~i] 10lV EupOlnCl.1KWV EVaV1l1OlV AlIplKavtKoov
npoloV1OlV OLVE1CI.1 a1[o "'lV E~iaOla'l (13.2), 0111V o1[oia 10. ""~POAa h " Kat P s" aV1I(HOI'
XOIlV aE OeLK1E~ ll~Wv.
To aV1ioTOl)(O wu avw1Epw
JtapaoeLy~aw~ a ~aKpOOtKOVO~tKO
"l~ 1I1CI.POAi]~ "11~ aV1CI.ywVlanK01111~
P,
*S,[$ / ]
R, = -"','----'-"--'
(13.2)
P',t
H EV AOYOl aXEn1Clj n~i] ovo~<it;E1C1.lnpaYflaTlK1I(JOTlflia (real exchange rate).
Mia C1.u~'lai] "11S, 11 01[oia C1.vna10lXEi aE lIiOla'l "'lS C1.V1CI.yOlVlanK01'l1Cl.~ 10lV Eu
pOlnCl.iKwv 1[PO'(()V1OlV, ovo~<it;E!al npaYflaw<1 avaTiflll1711 tOU rupw. A V1tCltolxOl~, ~la
~Eiluai] 111S, 11 o1[oiCi. aV1ICHoIXEi aE all~'la'l "l~ aV1ayOlvlatIKO"lt~ tOlV EupOl1tCI.iKOOV
npoloV1Olv, ovO~<it;ETCl.l "paYflaT/.KI/ vlwTiflllm/- H npay~n1Clj avati~'l"1l wu rup<O Eivat
JtpCl.WCl.n1Clj uJt01i~'l"1l tOU OOAapiou, Kat aV1\(j'[po<pOl~.
:1:t11 YEVIKOtEP'l 1tPincOlaJl 0110 XOlpwv "A" KCl.t "B", 11 vo~ia~C1.1CI. "a" Kal "b", 11
aXllKft t1~i] olVEtat ano ~laOla11 (13.3). :1:E C1.mi]v, 'l laon~ia eLVCl.t aE ~ov<iOES!aU "b"
(lVa.
"a",
Po, *S,[b/a]
R, = --=-C',---,-,,---,
(\3.3)
Ph,!
:1:UVEXlt;OV1C1.~
1[ap<ioEly~a ~
t11V EupOl-t;wVT\ Kat US H,n.A ., 11 noaoanaia IItaPoAi]

'['l~ npay ~a'[\,,"i]s \(jon~~ 'l onoia aJtotEN:i ~'[po '[11S IItapoAi]s '['lS aV1aYOlvlanK6111
'[~ tOlV EupwJtalKoov npoioV1OlV vaV11 '[OlV A~EPI"C1.VtKwV, OiVE1C1.1 ano '['lV E~iaOlo'l
(13.4) .' :1:E auci]v, 10 %,1 <nJ~poAit;EI '[11V noaoa'[talCi. ~EtapoAi], '[0 "E" TOV 1[A'leOlpla~o
T11S EupOl-t;wVT\S, EVW 10 "s" '[Ov nA11eOlp\(j~O TOlV H.n.A ..
TO
, ""E80~vou on ylO TPet~ ~'(OPA'IT~ X" Y" KOI Z, 'axU\ on In(X,* Y/ Z,) = InX, + InY, - lnZ" O"OU
In cru~poAii;1 TOV '1lU<nKO AoyapI8~o, 01(0 T'IV l;iuOlu'l (4.3) "POD"'TE! onln(R, /R,.,) = in(S,
IS,. ,) + In(?,.,!P",.,) -In(P,,, IP,,,.,). J\(l~!tvOVTaS urr' O'llIV on X, = x,., + (X,- x,.,), 'I tt~~ ~i(lS
cruV(lPT~UEOlS q>(X,) eiVat q>(X,) = '1'( X,., + (X,- x,.,) ) Kal, 11 (lvtl1lTul;'I KOTa Taylor rrpwtou p08
~u , <p(X,) '" q>(X,.,) + [iJq>(X,.,) I aX,., l*(X, - X,.,), orrou a EivOI to cni~POAO T11S napaywyou. rIO TI]
cruvilPT'I"~ TOU A.oyapi8~u, <p(.) = In, EivOI aln(X,.,)1 ax,., = 1IX,.,. OrrOT, In(X,) '" In(X,.,) + [I I
X,.I l*(X, - X,.I) <=> in(X,) -In(X,.,) '" [1 I X,., l*(X, - X,.,) <=> In(X, IX,.,) '" [1 / X,., l*(X, - X,.l )' AA
Ail, [I I X,.,l'(X,-X,.,) = %'1X" orroTE In(X, IX,.,) z%LJX,. Luv8uai;ovms TO avOlTEPOl 11 T'IV no
TO
patf\Pllo'Tl
I]
on ll1tocroO"noia ).lE'taPOA~ tal) 1[1.1[(001) tl).HOV \OOUtOl )1 rov 1rA119OOPlO).lO, rrpOKVrrtEt
El;ioOlo11 (13.4).
A.A. AvtCouNho~
l'.)lX<l9D'lOlLG3 ::",w'!'Q ilO1 V '~13D1!-il1l.11OillOU '101'(97.::1
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-011\0 3D I\nOl\l?X DIA9J,odlll?)lJ.Oll(T)dn3 D1 '%~ ' lIDurt!lOlln ~)lI1DOrl OI\O AUl I?l\d31133 '% l - 0'00 I '9 rtO
-ld!'lSUYll Q>lAo>ldJn\l AOl Q= 00',I.Dll!'ldn3 n01 ~do<lloIQ U nOllQ '~ Aoyyodoll UdJ1Q 3Q lJl~
'SolLu Q)l llDIAMAIJlA
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'orlc;>dX 9)1113docbolQ 3r'1 101I\OI\!OrllJDlllJ

nOjdOl\3D ClO)llDOg
nOll;Jlno Q.110 I\nod~cbDlQ 010110 Dl D!3XIOID 01 'I\f)oenoyo>lo nOll S!Aoyyodoll Sill

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I\lH QllO I\no)lQd:DIIlQ :OllJ1Q)lUDII\(T)AOlI\O 3D I\nol\J;>X 311)0 Anoi!Qd3)1 31('10 Oll\9.1.odll I;)I.I.DllMdn3 0.1
'0 ~ '1JJ7% 'A1QUn 10AP )D!nIlOOI )~'"DnAodll )U, ~yog013rl U , )~.,d3n\l10, )Ullryldn3 Qorlold!'lSUYll
J?docbolQ lu 3 r1 liD! IDA!) f!)dn3 n01 lJDlH1!1011n ~)IIlD0r1 0I\O LJ n01l9 'UD(T)11l!d311 ALl! ~lno 33:
"%Z = i".i;1l J9r1D1dmSUYll )Q)lII\O)lld3riV 0 10)1 %L = (';u )9rioldm9
-llyu )Q>(I.Dllmdn3 a '%"- = [3/$]'S17% 101\! 3 C!ldn3 n01 uour1]lOlln ~)lllD0r10J\O l.J 'OId1}1\30 9)11.001 oq
M
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'S Ul ~D(l3d?lOd13X 3TI DlA'91113::1l2DgTIOO A3g lwUTI)lDAD \pIUDmiOAO II lD)I S(1)1l9 'SXl]
A(1)lA910dll A(1)l SDlU19)111DlA(1),cDlAD Slll lwOJ)l"(3g 3TI lllA'9" 13))gDgTIOO A3g UDUTI)lOlLa
\pIllDmiOAO U " 9 3W)3dluDdDU 'Dlmi,c)3glldDll '9)1,d311'3]'9'DaodDll E' EI 013~ o~
'SmID9d lDllAD lD)! 'A(1)A?~ A(1)lllAD"1 A(1)lA910dll A(1))d
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- Old,!,YJ..3 AOl 'SXl]TIllODl S\pIllDlln OAO Slu ~"(08Dl3TI D)DllOODOll Alu 'S?lU,,(8D1
-:n1 S)3dl 13X;nd3U '01l9d1 9)11,c0,,( lD)I 9 t11TIO)l AD"1 3TI A'll)llAD)l1d:n1y A(1)lllADA? A(1)lA9',odll
A'll)l),ll11(1)da3 A(1)l SDllU9)111DlA(1),cDlAD SUl S;r'(08m:n1 Sll 13])tIIOAaD (V' E j) llD(1)0)~3 H
:0 = 1117%
Dlll19)1llDlI\(1),cDlA Y Ulll"(g'9 1:n1y
:0 < 1117%
'llda3 aOl llDUTI]lDAy ~)lllmi A.DdU
:0> 1117%
'll da 3 aOllwllTI)lOll},. \pIllDTIA.DdU
''9)1llDlDDdDU
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S~()1ll0DTIOAO SUl ~"(08m3TI D)DllDODOll \pI1l38 ''llda3 '9AD Dld
-If''(O'l S(1) SD)TIllODl Slu (l0l1D1do aOl (1),c9"( 'SllD)1l3 'A'll)llAD)l1d3TIY A(1)lllADA? A(1)lA910dll
'0 < [3/$)'SI7% 'Sn)TIllODl
A,!,)I),Dll(1)da3 A(1)l DlU19)1ll0lA(1),cDlAD luU,,(g'913TID 3D )3X10lOllAD ~"(ogDl3TI \pIlI\3'1 UW

'llDU11)lOlla 3D ~"(ogDl3TI \pIllltAdD 'llA3 ''llda3 aOl UOu.n)lDAD \pIllDTIA.Ddll 30 j3X101DllAD
'0 < '1117% 'SXl]TIllODl S\pIllDTIA.Dd ll Sill ~"(ogDl3TI Xl]DllDODOll \pI1l3S '(j;I'Elllw(1)D)~3 AU.l3:
("~.u
- '3.u) +[ 3/ $] 'SI7% = 1'~.u - '3.u +[3 / $]'SV% =

" 111 =
--------
(HI)
'''j1/=
,..---'-,
= rsdV% - ' 3dl7% + [3/ $]' SI7%" '1117 %
o1Xl,(,?m.)[ - "lnowx lOoBx"W 1XlX :'~BoA","rlltax ':>"D~oB3g 0)[
LT~V TpiT~ TT apaAAay~ , T~V OTTWAElO T~ <; OVTO YWVIOT1KOT~TOC; OTTO TOV U"'~AOTEPO TTA~8w PI
o1J6 , 7% - 2%, EvrEivEI 1"\ OVO lJa aT'K~ aVOTll-lflOrt TOU EUPW Karel 5'0. o!5l1ywvra<; m: OTTW}..[IO Tl'1 C; 0
vraywvloT IKOTIlTOC;' KOTa 1{)o.'O (= 5Q 0 + 5%).
l:T'lV rErapTr) 1Tapa AAay~ , 11 OVO J..laOTIK~ avorilJ'lor) TOU EUpW, 510, EivOI iOr) IJE Til Olorvopa TOU
XO lJilAOTE POU Eupwrro"iKOu OTTO TOV AIJEplKOVIKO nAr]9wpIOlJO, 7% - '::1t, IJEoTTortAEolJO '1 TTpaYIJO
TlK~ IOOTllJ fa va IJTl IJEwj3ciAAnOl. AUT~ 11 TTapaAA.ay ~ Eiva! avciAoYIl TOU j300lKOU ovapiou.
LIllV TtAEUTOfa TTapaAAav~, '1 oVOlJaOTlK~ avorilJrJ or) TOU EUPW, :5%., [ivOi IJIKPOTEPI1 anD Tr] 01
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fl TTpaVI-lOTIK~ IOOTllJi a va UTTOTIj..lcl TOI KOHl
. To EUPWTTO'IKO rrpoY6vTO Xcivouv Of. avraywvlOTlKO
T~TO KaH] ," Myw T~ C; ovo~aoT1K~C; aVOTI~~oEWC;, aMd KEpoi~ouv ' (- 7% - ,- ) aTTO T~ olOq>opd
TOU TTA~8wpIO~ OU.
Ot I1i:XPt UD pa ESEma9ElaES taonl1U:S, OVOl1amtKES Kat 1[pawanKi:s, Elvat {;IJlepeiC; (bi

lateral exchange rates) , avaq>i:povrat O'1An/hi am VOl1lal1um OUO xwpcOv. Ami:s Ot taon
I1U:S Elvat tKaV01[Ot'1nKES yta TTlV ESEma'1 TIIS ~tE'tU~OA1'\S T'1S av'tUywVtanKoTTl"o.s 1WV
npo'iovrwv 1WV cuo xwpcOv.
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K01'110.S 1WV1[POlOvrWV l1iaS XcOpo.S aTtS 019vEls ayops, evuvr11wv 1[POL6VTWV OAWV1WV
EI11[OptKcOv TTlS E1o.ipwv. 0 MyoS ElVo.t on m 1[po'iovro. T'1S XcOpo.S I11[OpEl vo. KEPOU;OUV aE
o.vro.ywVtanKOT'1m -1[paYl1o.TtKT'j u1[o'til1'1Glj-vo.vrt 'twv 1[po'iovrwv Ka1[OtWv a1[o 'tOuS
EI11[OPtKOUS 't'1S nuipous Ko.t 't'1v iOul 1[EPIOOO vo. xavouv - 1[paYl1o.TtKT'j o.va'tII1'1Glj
vo.vrt TWV npoL6vrwv KanOI.!.llV aAAwv.
fto. 't'1v ESE1o.a'1 'twv 11ET00POAcOV T'1S o.vro.YWVtcr'ttKO't'1To.S 'twv 1[POlOVTWV TTlS XcOpas
aTTlv 1[o.YKOaI1Ul o.yopa xp'1atl1onotouvro.t Ot maOJlUIj1VeC; UJOTlJlieC; (effective exchange
rates).
Ot G't0.9I1ta!iEvES ta01tl1lS, OVOl1o.an KS Kat 1[po.Yl1o.nKS, U1[OAOyU;Ovrat a1[O 'tU; a
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po. - EI11[OPtKO nuipo. LE Optcrl1VES ru;pl1ITcOaEtS, ot EV Myw auvrEAEaTS 1[poaapl1oi;o
vro.t emt cOmE vu Ao.l1pavouv un ' OI\f1VKo.t 'tOY o.vmywVtal10 't'1S XcOpo.S IlE 'tOuS EI11[OPt
,
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KOUS 't'1S EmtpOUS aE TpnES XWpESYmipxouv, AotnOV, OUO OUla'taaEU; mu; auvo.Uo.Yl1o.TtKS tcronf'U:S, I1E OUo . Ko.'tU
a'taaEU; Ka9E Ilia - mJvOAtKa TacrEpu; auvouaal10i. OvOJlamlKC; Kat 7rpaYJlarlKC; (nomi
nal Kat real) '1 Ilia o1.6.muGlj, OIJlepdC; Ko.t maOJllr1J1VeC; (bilate ral Ko.t effective) '1 aU'1.
H ouaKoAia unoAoytcrl10U 'twv tcronl1tcOv o.usavE'to.t 0.1[0 TU; oVOl1aanKS aTU; npay
l1unKS, Kat a1[o 'tU; Otl1EPEls atu; <rra9I1tal1VES. 0 , ovo l1aanKES otllEpEiS taoTt~i.&; EiVo.t
EUKOAO va ~pE90uv. TU; aVo.KOtVcOVEt 0 XP'1l1aTOotKOvOl1tKos nJnos, u1[apxouv aE OAeS 'tU;
paaw; XP'1l1a'toOtKoVOl1tKcOV OEOOI1VWV Kat ans taTOaEUOES 'tWV KEV'tPtKcOV 'tpa1[EScOv.
Ot Ot~EPEls npawanKS taonl1U:S U1[OAOyU;Ovr(ll a1[O TU; OtI1EPEU; oVOl1OanKS Kat m a
vrla'tOtxa E1[Iru;OU n~cOv. A1[anouvrat Ka1[01Ot aXEnKa o.1[AOI U1[OAoytal1oi, Ko.l m o.1[o.t
TOUI1EVo. atotxEla ElVo.t EU KOAOvo. ~pE90uv.
Ot a'tUSl1lal1VES t.<lonl1U:S Eivat 1[EptaaOTEpo CUOKOAo vo. U1[OAOYtcrroUV, OXt Toao
ano o.AYE~PtKT'js 1[AEUpas 6ao 0.1[0 1[Aevpas au1J..oy1'\s 'twv o.1[(ltTov!iEvwv atotxEtwv. H EU
KOA'1 Aua'1 Eiv(ll'1 EUPEm'] 'touS 0.1[0 paaEtS XPTll1o.'tOO tKovO~tKcOv OEOOI1VWV Kat 0.1[0 TtS
taroaE),lOES ~EyaAwv KEvrptKcOV Tpo.1[EScOV Ko. t I1EyaAwv XP'1 l1o.T01[tcrTW'tuccOv opyo.Vtal1cOv.
BA1[ETE, EVOEUCItKa, TU; taToaEAiOES TTlS EKT (ww" .ecb.im/$Iat 0, T'1S Tpo.1[i;'1S 111
9vcOV LVVOUlAAnYcOV (www.bis.or!!istatisticsieer/ illdcx,htm), Ko.t t'1S 0 110a1[OVOUlKT'jS
TpU1[i;'1S T'1S A'tA.O.vru (www.frbatlantll .or!!iecon I'd/dol indcx/di ind~x.cflll ).
o 1[IVUKUS 13.1 auvo\jlU;Et TTl xP1'\Glj TWV 'tEamipwv taon~uOv aTTlv EKTII1'1 Glj TWV
IlEmpoAcOv 't'1S uv'tUywVtaTtKOT'1'tUS'twv 1[po'iov'twv l1iaS xcOpas.
, rw
JrEp"mOTEp E<; t EXVLKtC; AEJrtOlltpEtE<;, OUVl<Haml ~ IlEAi1~ 10lV Luca Buldorini, Stelios
Makrydakis and Christian Thim ann The effective exchange rates of the euro, ECB Occasional Pa
per Series No.2, February 2002.
A.A. A v1~OUNirO<;
mvaKa~
13.1.
METa~oAt~ TWV l ao Tl~"iJv KOI METa~o AE~ Trl~ AVTaywvoa TiKOTrlTa~
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rrA'l8wplOj..Jo. ria T'lV EKTil-lrJOfl TWV IJTO[3oAwv T'lC; avraywvloTIKoTIlTOC; rWV rrp0"l6vTwv TOUe; npETTEI
va XP'1cr1l-l0TTOIQUVTaI OJ rrpaYIJOTIKE C; IOOTIIJiEc,;.
no lOU Aoyou TO aAIlete;, TO QUO OIOYPOIJI-l0ra TTOU OKoAou90uv
TT apOUOla~ouv
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Kat T'1V TTpaY~OTIK~ (nae~la~iv~ laaTt~ia T'1<; EupwTTaYK~ <; EVWIJ[W<; Kat T'1<; EMciOa<;, Yla T~V
mpiaOa 1980 - 2005.
EupWTTa"'K~ -Evwa~
- Ovo~aaTIK~ Ka. npay,~aTtK~ rTae~IO'~tv~ 1000Tl~ia , 1980 - 2005
150
140
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110
100
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International Financial Slatislics_
ria ~EV H1V EUpWlTOrKr') 'EvworJ, ., oVO~aOTlK~ KOI ., rrpaYIJOTIKri loorq.Jia oKoAou8ouv 11 !Jla HIt; I-JE ~
ra[3oAi<; T~<; aM~<;. ria T~V [KTi~~a~ T'1 <; ~Ta~OA~<; T'1<; avraYWVlaTtK6T~Ta <; TWV EupwTTaYKwv TTpa
IOVTWV OTIC; 618vEic:; ayoptc;, Kat 01 600 6ivouv TO [010 OTTOTEAtOj.JOTO . ATT6 AOYIKri<; rrAwpdc;, ., 010
",apa TTA~ewpla~ au aT'1V [~iIJWIJ~ (13.4) EiVat KaVTa ara ~~otv. AVTletTW<;, 01 ~Ta~aAt<; T~<; ava
~aaTlK~<; oaaTt~ia<; [ivai aUy<PITlKa ~ [yciA[<;. ME aMa Myoa, 01 ~Ta~aAt <; T~ <; TTpay~OTIK~<; laaTl~ia<;
rrpoKoAouVTOI KupfwC; aTT6 TI C; j..JEwl3oAtC; TWV OV0I-l00TIKWV IOOTIIJIWV.
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LE ~la vO~ta~aTtKi1 evWCl'1, Ot XOlPE~ - ~EA'1 XP'1crt~1I0tOUV TO iotO VO~tCl~a - E~ OU Kat '1
ClTtl9Epa tCloTt~ia. ~ mlVElIEill, OEV EXOUV T'1 ouva,o''1Ta aClKijClEW~ aUTOVO~'1~ VO~ta~a
TtKij~ 1I0AtTtKij~. AKOAOUSOUV T'1V Will VO~tCl~anKij 1I0AntKij, T'1V olloia aClKei '1 KOtVlj
KEVTptKij ,pallEi;a Aa~paVOVTa~ UlI' O'VtV T'1~ Tt~ ClUVST]Ke~ Cl OA'1 T'1V evwCl1j Kat OXt Cl
Ka1l0ill ClUYKKP l~V1j XOlpa - ~Ao~.
LUYXPOVO napaoety~a alloTAEi'1 O.N.E .. Ot XOlp~ - ~A'1 T1j~, ~Ttl~U TOlV 01l0lu>V
Kat '1 Enaoa, EXOUV KOtvO VO~tCl~a, TO eupw. 'Eva eupOl T1j~ EAMoo~ aVTanaClCleTtlt ~
Eva eupOl T1j~ [TtlAla~, '1 01l0la ellimj~ eiVat ~AO~, ~E tCloTt~ia eva lIpO~ Eva. rla ''1V a
Kplpeill, Eva eupOl TO 01100 ,l9eTat Cle KUKAoq>opia ClT'1V E1,.Moa ~1I0pei va XP'1Cl'l'OllOl'1
Sei Cl''1V haAia, 01lW~ Kat Cle 01l0illOT]1I0,e an'1 XOlpa T'1~ EVOlClW~. T'1v oe KOtVlj VO~l
Cl~aTtKij 1I0AtTtKij aaKeL'1 EU pWlIalKij Kev,plKij Tpallei;a.
Ava~Cla ClTtl lIAEOVelC1:T]~aTtl T1j~ vO~lCl~anKij~ eVOlClEw~ ~exwpU;et TO OTt au~paoi
sEt ~e U'V'1A.OTEPO e~1I0ptO ava~wa ClTtl ~1,.'1 T1j~. To OE U'V'1A.OTEPO E~1I0PtO ml~pa1,.AEt
ClT1jV OtKOVO~tKij aVallTU~'1 Kat Cl''1 PE1,.Tlu>Cl1j TOU PtOTtKOU lIl1lEOOU. LE ~la eupUTtl,a
aui;'1T1j8eiCla ~)..ET'1, Ol Jeffrey Frankel Kal Andrew Rose' avaq>Epouv OTt TO E~OptO ~e
Ttl~U TWV XwpOlV - ~1,.OlV ~la~ EVOlClW~ eivat 'PE~ q>opt~ U'V'1A.OTEPO allo OTt TO E~1I0ptO
~ XOlp~ EK,OS T'1S VOlClWS E1ltllAEOV, KaSE 1% aU~'1Cl1j TOU E~1I0plou, WS 1I0ClOClTOU TOU
AEn, au~avEt TO KaTa Kq>a1,.T]V E lClOO'1~ ,0U1,.aXtClTOV KaTa 1,%. XapaKT1jplaTtKa, Ot
Frankel Kat Rose avaq>Epouv OTt '1 eiClOOOS T1j~ n01,.WVlaS ClrllV O.N.E. Sa OO'1YOUClE ClE
au~'1Cl1j TOU Ka,a KEq>aAT]V EtaOOT]~aTOS 'wv KaTOlKwv T'1S KaTa 20%. nOClOClTO Ka901,.ou
euKaTaq>pOV1jTO !
01lWS, 6~wS, lIapaT1jpeL 0 Kenneth Rogoff,' Sa liTtlv lIapaKtVOuveu~vo TO U'V11AO
TEpO E~1I0PlO, Kat Ttl auv amOl OlKovO~tKa Oq>E1,.'1, va all0008Ei alloKAEtClnKa ClT'1 VO~t
Cl~aTtKij EVWCl1j. XP'1Cll~OllotffivTas wS E1ltxeip'1~a T1j otaotKaaia ElClaywyT]S TOU eupOl,
lIapaT'1pei OTt lIapa1,.1,.'11,.a ~ T1jv lIpoe-rOl~aClia TOU KOlVOU vo~la~aTos, Ot XOlpS ''1S
O.N.E. Eq>awoaav lI1,.'18Olpa anwv ~TPWV Yill OlKOVO~lKij evolloi'1Cl'1. Me,pa Ttl 01l01a
KaAUlITtlV allo TO ~Ey90S TWV '1AEKTPtKOlV pUCl~aTWV ~XP" ,0 SW~tKO lI1,.almo TOU XP'1
~aTOOlKovO~tKOU ClUCln'1~TOS, Kat ,WV 01l0lu>V '1 elliopaCl1j ClT1jV avoOo TOU EVOO
Eupw1l(iiKOU e~lIopiou l1TtlV ~aUov ~yaAuTep'1 allo auti] T1j~ aTa8epas taOT'I'laS.
To Cl1j~VTlKOTEPO ~EtOVEKT1j~a eiVat OTt '1 KOtVlj vo~ta~aTtKij 1I0AtTtKij elva\ lIt8a
vov va ~'1V eiVat TO iiilO Ka,an '11,.11 Yill OAES T~ XOlPES - ~E1,.'1 . Amo tClx6el ClT1jV lIepl
7ttwa'1 01l0U Ol OtKovo~lKol TOUS KUdOl OEV eiVat Cluyxpovla~vOl, oev ppiaKoVTat, O'1An
OT], ClT1jV iota q>aCl'1.
rill T1jV O.N.E., TO 1lt8avo amo ~etovi:KT1j~a lIapoumaSe-rat Cl,O Clxil~a 13.4, ~E
XPT]Cl'1 TOU lIapaywYlKoU KEVOU T'1S EA1,.aOOS, T1jS Ip1,.avoias Kat T'1S Eupw-i;OlV1j~. Os u
lIev8u~lCl'1, TO 8eTtKO lIapaywytKO KEVO, TO olloio Cl1j~alvEt on ~ia XOl pa lIapaYEt lIavw
allo TO OUV1jTtKO ellineoo lIapaywyT]~ T1jS, eival eVOE~'1l11,.'18wPlClTtKOlV lItaewv allo T11V
lIAEupa T1jS S'1TT]ClEWS Kat TO aVTiSETO (pAElIe,E TO Ev8w 6.1, "n1,.'18WplCl~OS Kat <Dam1
TOU OtKOVO~lKOU KUKAou"). [ill 01,.'1 T11v lIEplooo TOU Clxil~a,~, 1999 - 2008, '1 Ip1,.av
Ola eiXE 11 ava~voTtlv va EXEt SETtKO lIapaywytKO KevO, evOl '1 EUaoa allo TO 2003 Kat
evTEU8EV. HOE O.N.E., ~ E~aipCl1j Ttl ET'1 1999 - 2001, eiXE apV1jTtKO lIapaywytKO Kevo.
Me paCl'1 aUTa Ttl ClTOlXEia, '1 KaTan'11,.'1 VO~tCl~aTtKi] 1I01,.tTtKij T]TtlV elleKTaTtKij Yill T1jv
Eupw-i;OlV1j allo TO 2002, Kat ClUClTtlATtKij yta T1jV EAMoa allo TO 2003 Kat T1jV IpAavola
yta OA'1 T1jV UlIO E~ETtlCl1j nepiooo.
"An Estimate of the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade and Income", Quarterly Journal of
Economics, May 2002, pp. 437 - 466 .
" Why Not A Global Currency?", American Economic Review - Papers and Proceedings, Vol.
91 , No.2, pp. 243 - 247, May 2001.
A.A. AV1(ouAeXTO<;
16
rx';~a 13.4. napaVWVIKO KEVO KOI m,.,8wpICJ~o e; CJE EMalia, IpAavliia, Eupw-~wv.,
H KOlv,; NO~lavaTlK'; noll"'K'; Mv Elva! KaTljllll~II~ Via XWpEe; ~E M~-Luvxpavla~tvo KUKAa
6..------ - - -- -- - - - -IpAavOla
EllAoC;
o
-2
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2Q04
200S
2006
2007
2008
'ETOC;
nllVrl .o.(60)Jlvwv: OECD Econom ic Outlook, ACKIJi3P10<; 2006.
o xapaKT'lptcr~O<; TOU mJa-ni~aTO<; W<; 1:0U 1[AEOV a1:C!eEpOU ~aal~E1:at aE SUo eEa~tKU Xa
paK1:'lptClUKU 1:0U 1:C! 01[01a Kaeta1:0UV TO KoaTO<; a1[Oxwp1\aEro<; a1[O ~ia vO~ta~(ntK1\ E
vroa'l 1[OAU U'I''lAO. Kaew<; 'l mJ~~ETOxr\ aE ~ia EVro"'l e1vat EeEAoVTtK1\, 11 a1[Oq>a"'l au~
~ETOX1\<; 1\ a1[Oxrop1\aEro<; i Vat a1[01:eAea~a U1[OAOytCl~V KoaTOU<; - roq>EAeia<; a1tO w; EV
OIllq>EpO~VE<; XWPE<; Kat 1:1S 1[OAtnKE<; 1:6.I';EIS 1:OU<;. On81\1[01:E aU~UVt 1:0 6q>EAo<; mJ~~
1:Oxr\<; aU~~UAAet a"lv a1:aeEp0"l1:C! 1:OU mJ<>-ni~a1:o<;. To aU1:o Kat yta on81\1t01:E aU~UVEt
1:0 KOa1:O<; a1[Oxwp1\aEW<;. <DUCltKU, Ot i010t U1[OAoyta~OI taxUOuv ytC! 01t01OO1\1[01:E uUo
crUa"l~a.
IIpw1:Ov, E1tEt01\ at XWPE<; - ~EA'l OEV EXOUV OtKO 1:0u<; vo~ta~a, EUV a1tOxrop1\aouv
a1to "lv Evroa'l, ea 1[PEnEt Va Etauyouv YEO VO~ta~a. Kun 1:0 o1[oio ea O'l~1Ou pyJ]aEt "'l
~aVTtKO KOa1:O<; 1tpoaap~oY1\<; aE OAOU<; 1:OU<; OtKOVO~tKOU<; 1tapaYOVTE<;. Ba 1tPE1tE!, E1[i
a'l" Va O'l~1OupY1\aouv eECJ~OU<; Kat ~'lXaVtCl ~OU<; yta 1:'lV EKOOa'l, KUKAO'POPio. Kat EAeY
XO 1:0U vo~ia~1:0<; - Kan 1:0 o1[oio OEV e1Vat EUKOAO Kat, E1tl1tAEOV, a1[anEI xpOVO.
"'EUTEPOV, Ot eE<l~OI at 01[010t O'l~tOUpY1\e'lKaV yta Va OtEUKOAUVOUV "lV o~aA1\ Aet
1:Oupyia "l<; EvwaEW<; OEV EIVat EUKOAO va EYKa1:C!AEt'PeOUV. Y1tUPXOUV KOtVroVtKE<; O~UOE<;
at 01[0U:<; tXOUV mJ~q>EPOV ylll "l Ota1:1\P'la1\ 1:OU<;. Em1tAtov, Ot eE<l~OI atJ'[oi eE1:OtJV mJ
YKEKPt~EVOU<; KaVOVE<; yta T'l AEnoupyla "l<; OtKovo~ia<; Kat 1:0U xp'l~a1:00tKOVO ~tKOU
aua-ni~a1:o<;, 'l EYKa1:UAet'l''l TroV 01[01roV eO. 0'l~tOupyouaE ~YUA'l a~E~atO"l1:C! Kat OU
aKOA'l 1tEpiooo 1tPOaap~oY1\<;.
Ta OUO aUTO. XapaK1:'lPtClnKU, 1[apon EVtClxU0UV "l a1:C!eEpOT'lW TroV vO~ta~anKWV
EvwaErov Kat n<; Ka8taTOUV W 1tAtOV crW8EPU a1[O 1:a aucrT1\~aw aWeEpWV taon~tWV,
OEV TIS Ka8t<l1:0uv aSuva1:ES. To ma1:01totel TO Ev8no 13 .5.
'EvOuo 13.4. O. No ICJ OTIKi EVWO'EI fl..v EivOi .0 naVYo
Ka! 01 vO~IO~aTlK te; EVWOEle; ~lalluovral . Luv';6we;, uno KOO~OVOvIKte; Via TIe; ETT~pEa~O~EVEe; XWpEe;
OUVeliKEe;.
nuo rrpoa<pOTo rropaoiYl-loro o rrOH:AouV
'1 (510Auoll
TwV VOj.JIOj..lOTlKLllV EVWOEWV Tile.; LO~IETI
Klie; EVWCJEWe; Kal '~ e; T CJExoollo~aKiae; : H TTPW'~ OTle; apxte; '~e; ~EKOETiae; TOU 1990, orav ~lailU6~
K 'l LOPIET1Kr) 'Evwo'l KOI TO rrpOKU4JOVTO aVE~dpTIlTO KPOHI Io~yayav TO (5IKCt TOUe; vOj.Jioj..lom, 11
~EUTEP~ TO 1993, ~ETa TO ~Ellau~lvo , OTTWe; xapaK,~pia'IlKE , ~la~uVla 'Ile; TaExiae; KOI 'Il e; Ha~a
Kiac;-.
LTO napov ,wpa , KOTTala axoilia Via ETTEPXO~EVO ,tllae; '~e; O. N.E., ora npw,a ~';~OTO 'Ile;,
~TOV TTO}..U
np6wpa
KCI uTn:p~oA1Kd.
' Dollarlzation ' .

LE aUTO TO crUaT'l~a, ~tia xwpa U108ETE~ EhE Ema1\~ro<; i1:E aVEma1\~CD<;, TO vo~ta~a ~ias
uU'lS, auvJj8ro<; ~EyUA'lS, xwpa<;-oXt Ka1:' avuyK'lv 1:0 ooMptO H.II.A.. rlll1[apUOEty~a,
17
ana
10 OOAtlPLO H.I1.A. XP'1at~01l:0LOUV EmCJ11~0), 0 ITava~tl, 0.11:0 "to 1904, 10 EKoua06p

"to 2000 Kat "to E,,- LaA~a1i6p 0.11:0 "to 2001. To EUpW XP'1ot~01l:01.OUV Emoi]~O),"to Kooou
<p01l:EOtO 0.11:0 "to 1999 Kat "to Maupo~ouvLO 0.11:0 10 2002.
L"t'1 I\OuYKooAa~ia, 01LS apXE, "t'1, oEKaE1ta, lOU 1990, "to rEWaVlKO ~tlPKO i]1av
"to de facto, aUtl oxt EmoA~O), avayvO)pto~vo, vO~to~a "1, xwpa, ( ~A1[1E "1 aui;i]"1
0'1 y\1J. "to KOOTO, lOU U1I:p1l:A'180)pto~ou O"1V EV0"1"tU 5.4). LE llEpl1nWOELS 011:0), "t'1,
rLOUYKOOAa~ia" Ot mtXlpi]OELS Kat ot Ko.lOtKOt "t'1, xwpa, XP'10t~01l:otOUV Eva lOXUpo
VO~to~a yta n , auvaAAayi:, Kat "tLS a1l:01a~t6oEt, lOU" 1I:POKEl.!JivOU va 1I:poo1a"tw80uv
0.11:0 "tOY ulJI'1AO llA'180)ptO~0 Kat "t1<; auVEXEU; U1I:0n~i]oE1<; "tOU E8vtKOU vo~to~a10, 1I:0U
tOv auvOOEUOUV.
To ' dollarization ' i:XEt 1I:apo~0\1J. OUYKptnKU 1I:AOvK"ti]f!a-ra Kal ~ELOVEK"ti]~a1a ~E

i:VO)O'1. Kal "tou"to o16n, 011:0), Kat OT'1V i;v0)0'1, XP'1at~01l:0that "to illLO
vo~to~a
Ota<p0pEnKE, XWpE,.
"EXEl, O~o)" Kat O'1~aVTlK, O\1J.<pOpE, Ot 011:01, ELVat Et, ~tlpO, "t'1, Ul08E"tOUO'1, 10
Si:vo vO~lOf!a xwpa,. Ka"t ' apmv, EVW OT'1V vO~lo~anKij vO)O'1 '1 vO~to~anKij KIlKAO
<popta a1l:0<paoi1;E"tat 0.11:0 "t'1v KOlvT] KEV1PlKij "tpu1[i;a, o"to 'dollarization ' ~"tU~UAAE"tUt
aU10~a"ta o"tUv U1I:UPXt So)"tEPlKij aVloopponia. AllO "tEXVttcTt, 1I:AEUPU" '1 vo~to~antcTt
KIlKAo<popta ELVat EVOOYvi], IlE"tU~A'1"l: AusuvE"tUt o"tUV U1I:UPXEt 1I:AEOVaollU o"to 100i;u
yLO 1I:A'1PO)llwv Kat topoi] auvaUo.Ylla"tO, 0"1 xwpa, ~t6Jv"tat O"tUv 1l1l:UPXEt EAAEtll~a
Kat EKPoll.
E1[wi] O "to tooi;uyl.O 1I:A'1PO)llwV 1t'1PEui;E"tUt Kat 0.11:0 1I:0UOD, SO)"tEptKOD, napu
YOVTE" "tOil, 01l:0tOU, OV AYXt ou"t E1t'1PEUi;Et Ilta xwpa, ivat m8avov Ot ~1a~0A,
"t'1, vOlltOlla"tttcit, KUKAoCPOpia, va ll'1v ELVat oUIl~a"tE, Il "t'1v <ptlo'1 "tou OtKOVOlllKOD KU
KAOIl "t'1'. 'Eva, "tlOLO, 1I:aptlYo)v tvat ot OUV8i]KE, o"t'1v Koillouoa "to vOlllOlla xwpa,. H
1I:topaoi] lOU avaADnat Il EVa auYKEKptJ.LVO 1I:apuonYlla.
eEO)pELOTE "t'1v 1I:Epi1l:"t0)0'1 01l:0U Ol H.IT.A. OODOUV 1I:PO, D<pO'1, vw 0 ITavallu, EU
ptOKE1at o <puo'1 "tUXEia, ava1l:WS(0), IlE lOXUpE, 1I:A'180)PtOTlK, mion, allo "1V 1I:AwPU
"t'1, i;'1"ti]0(0),. ITpo01l:a8wVTU<; va a1l:0"tpIJIt "t'1V U<PEO'1, 'l KVTpttcTt "tpo.1I:i;a 10)V H.IT.A.
aUSuvt"t'1 vOlllOllanKij KUKAO<POpia Kat ~tWVt "tU mnOKla "1, xwpa,. H ~tO)O'1, 01l0)"
"to)v AIlplKaVlKwv mnoKlo)v 80. 1I:POOEAKUOt K<ptlAa\1J. o"tov ITavallu, 80. aUS'18d "to t
OOi;tiyLO XP'1lla1001KoVOlltKWV auvaUaywv, CFfl~""" t, Kal"tO tooi;uyl.O 1I:A'1PO)llwV 80. yt
VEt llAEovaollUnKO, BPfl",ap" > O. eO. aUS'18d '1 vOlllOllantcTt KUKAo<popta OTOV ITavalltl,
OO'1ywv-ra, -011:0), avaAu8tlK Il 10 u1I:00EtYlla IS/LM- o IlELo)O'1 "to)V mnoKlwv "t'1,
xwpu<; Kat aus'1o'1 "t'1, 1I:apayO)yT],. eO. OO'1yT]OEl, miO'1" O Ev"taO'1 "to)v 1I:A'180)P"OT"KWV
1I:t0O)v 0.11:0 1'1V 1I:AEUpU "t'1, i;'1"ti]OEo), -"to aV"t(8ElO 0.11:0 on xpuii;E"tat 0 ITavalltl,.
To aV0)1EpO) 1I:aptlOEtYIla aVaOEl1(vUt Ilta UU'1 0'1llaVT1tcTt ola<popu: Ev avnetot ~
"t'1v vOlllOllanKij i;v0)0'1, 01l:0U '1 vOlllollantcTt 1I:0AmKij ano<paoi1;E"tat ~ ~U0'111<; auv8i]
K, O OAE, n, XWPE, - J.LA'1, o"1v 1I:EpimO)O'1 lOU ' dollarization ' allo<paai1;1at ~ ~o.o'1
"tLS auv8i]KE, O"t'1V EKoillouoa "to XP1latIlOllOlOU~VO vOlllOlla xwpa. H uL08nouoa 10 VO
Illolla xwpa avaYKaOnKU tOo.yW) "I vOlltOllUnKij 1I:0AmKij "1, Koillouoa, xwpa,. L"tO
1I:apUOtYlla, 0 ITavallU, avaYKaOnKo. tOtlyt "t'1 VOlllOllUntcTt 1I:0AmKij 10)V H.IT.A., 11:0.
pon ami] 1l lloAmKij oXEouianlKE XO)PU; va Aall~UVOVTat U1I: 'OlJllV Ot OUV8i]KC, "t'1, xw
pas
Mia 1pt"1 O'1llavrtKij O\1J.<poptl a<poptl 01'1V Ka"tUvolli] "tou WJoi5~ILaTOr; mro TO 81(60
fl1(O "POVOI'IO 10)V KV"tPtKwV "tpa1l:i;wv (seignorage income), O'1Aaoi] 10 ElOOO'1lla "to 0
1I:0tO 0'1IlLOupYEhat 0.11:0 "t'1v EKOOO'1 xpi]lla"to,: L"t'1V ~v i;v0)0'1 llotpui;E"tUl0E oAa m Il
"-'1 "t'1" o"to OE 'dollarization' 1t'1yatvEt o"t'1v EKoioouoa"to xpi]lla xwpa. OuO\1J.OrtKU, 010
' dollarization' Ilia 1I:10)m xwpa XP'1lla10001EL 1'1V nAOUO\1J. xwpa "t'1, 01l:0ia, "to vOlltOlla
XP'1atIl01l:0tt: T'1, XOP'1YEL tva U"tOKO oaVELO.
To v AOYO) ElOOO'1lla avravaKAU "t'10UX<pOpU "1, avraAAaK"t1tcTt, asia, Vo, xap10
VOlliolla"tO, i] KEPlla"tO, Kat lOU KOO"tOU, llapayO)yT], "tOU. E1I:iO'1" Il"OpEi va npOEA8Et 0.11:0
"t'1V xpi]O'1 10U xpi]lla1O" 10 OllOlo anO"tAEt U"tOKO bUvl.O 0.11:0 "to KOtVO O"t'1V KV"tpttcTt
"tpo.1I:Ei;a, yux "1V allOK"lO'1 llPl.OUOtaKWV O"tOtXElwV, 011:0), KU~pV'1nKtl olloAoya i] OU
vaUaYllanKU a1l:08Ella-ra, ano "to. onota '1 KEvrptKij "tpuni;a KEpOi1;t Ktl1l:0LO "tOKO. rla
napUOtyllU, "to xap"tOvOlltOIlU "t o)V 100 wpw KOOTi1;t Aiya A1I:"ttl yta va napax8Ei, 1I:A'1V
"t'1v
vO~to~anKij
ano
18
O~UlS 11 EKT 10 avtaUo.Ol ~ aya96. Kat UmtpeOteS aE,ias 100 eupw, 'FOt 1tOAA.ct1[A6.mw;
af,ias tOU KOOtOUS 1tapayw'Y'ls. E1tI.1t)J;ov, '\ EKT ~opei va to xpllm~01tOtll0et yta va a
yop6.oet OOAo.pta, ta 01tOla Katatt9t~va 9a ttS a1to<ptpouv Ka1totO tOKO.
Le ~la vo~tcr~attK1\ tvwoll, auto to etcrOo'l~a KataA"Yet OtOUs KatoiKouS OAWV tWV
xwpwv - ~AWV. LtO 'dollarization', o~WS, KataA"yet OtOUs KatoiKouS t'lS eKoioouoas to
vo~tcr~a xwpas. fta 1tapo.Oety~a, to etcrOoll~a a1to tllV KUKAoqlOpia oOAapiwv OtoV ITa
va~a mtyaiVet mous KatOiKOUS tUlV H.IT.A .. at 1ttWXoi ITava~l;o~ xp'I~atoootoUV toUs
1tOAU 1tAOUmOtepOUS popeiouS yeltOVS toUS.
To etOOoll~a Oe auto OeV eival EUKataq>pOVlltO. ITapott OEV ~1tOPel va eKtt~1l9ei ~e
aKpqJla, yta ~la tu1ttK1\ ava1ttuooo~ xwpa aVPXetat atO 5% - 10% tWV eooowv tOU
1tpOii1tOAoytO~OU. Eav a1toAe0gel, Sa 1tP1tl va avtucataota9el a1to aUt,llo'l tWV q>opwv "
va avttOtaS~lmel ~ ~dwoll tWV oa1tavwv: "'uo e1ttAOYS ot 01tOlES OEV dvat Ka90Aou
eUKOAeS. E1timIS, to etoOoll~a tUlV H.IT.A. a1to til XP"Oll tOU oOAaplou ws vo~tcr~a Oe
'dollarized ' XWpeS aUa Kat WS a1t0ge~atlKOU vo~io~atoS eKtl~tal atO J% tOU AEIT.
Ev KataKAeio~ 'I vo~tcr~atlK1\ tvwoll U1teptepei tOU 'dollarization' . E6.v Ot XWpes, 0\
01tOlES xpllm~01t01OuV to vo~to~a ~iaS aUllS, elxav e1tlA0'Y'l, Sa 1tpott~ouoav tllv tVUlC>TJ.
Mil u1tapxouC>TJS autiJs tllS e1ttAoy"S, Sa 1tp1tet va U1to.PXouv Kal 6.UOl1tap6.YOvteS Ot 0
1tOlot, OtOUS 0XetlKOUS U1tOAOytcr ~OUS KomoUS - Wq>eAelaS, KAeivouv tllv 1tAaattyya urrtp
tllS UlOSetiJOecoc; tOU 'dollarization ' . B)J;1tete oxetuco. tllv eV0tllta J 7.5 "LtagePS Kat
MetapAlltS 100tl~teS - LUYKptttK6. ITAeOVeKtll ~ata".
EmrrAov, to 'dollarization' elVat hyotepo OtagePO a1tO Otlll VO~to~atlK1\ tVWOll.
LtO 'dollarization ' OEV U1t6.pXet to 9EC>~lKO unopa9po tllS EVWOeWS Onws oev U1to.PXOUV 11
noAttlK1\ POUAllC>TJ Kat KOtVWVlK1\ ouvaivEC>ll nou auto to unopa9po avtlnpOOW1teUet Kat
EVtOx1Jet. Enm)J;ov, Myw tWV npoavaq>epSt vtWV OUYKPtttKWV nAeOVeKtll ~6.tWV tllS eVW
OeWS, to KiVlltpO yta ' dollarization' elVat a0gevt otepo.
Currency Board.
Auto to ouotll~a Xel ttooepa Ki>pta xapaKtllptOtlK6.. ITPWtOV, to vo~to~a dvat OUVOe
Oe~EvO (pegged) Oe Ko.1t01O tOXUpo f,EvO vO~tcr~a ~ Otagepa tOOtl~ia. "'eutepov, unapXet
eAeUSePll ~tatponiJ tOU eYXUlploU Oto f,tvo vo~to~a avaq>opas: Ono1Ooo,,1tOte OlKOVO
~lKOS nap6.yUlv, Eq>' OOOV to em9u~i, ~noPei va ~etatplJIel ono1Oo"note 1tOOO eYXwpiou
vo~io~atoS OtO f,EvO vo~to~a avaq>opaS, ~e tllv npoKa90ptcr~tVll otagepo. tOOtl~la.
Tpitov, 11 KEVtptK1\ tpa1tel;a OeV ~nopei va oll~1OUPY"Oet eYXWptO xp,,~a Kata pou
AllC>TJ LUyKeKpt~Eva, 'I vO~lO~atlK1\ Paoll KaAU1ttetat eV OAW " eV ~Pet a1to cruvaUay
~atlKa anoSt~ata. E1tetO" ta teAeUtaia OeV ~1topei 11 KEvtP1K1\ tp6.nel;a va ta aut,,,Oet
Kata POUAllC>TJ, Ka90tl1tpoS tOUtO xpeuU;etat 1tAeovao~a OtO tcrol;uytO 1tAlIPW~v, ouot
aOtlKa ane~noAei tll ouvatot1\ta olW1OuPYias eyxwpiou xp,,~atOS Kat tllv ouv autiJ ou
vat0tllta amd]oeWS aUtovO~llS vO~tcr~atlK1\s 1tohnK1\s
A1to texv1K1\s 1tAeUpo.S, 11 vO~to~attK1\ Pao'l elvat evooyevTJS ~taPA'It". Auf,avetat
otav to tOOl;uy1O nAllPw~wv elvat nAeovao~attKO, BP > 0, OUpptKVWVetat otav eivat eA
Ae\j.1~atlKO, BP < O. H Oe KevtptK1\ tpanel;a OEV txet anOAUto tAeYXO OtO tool;uy1O nAll
pw~wv: Nat ~V emtpeal;et, ~OUl tWV enttoKiwv, tlS etcraywyts, tlS et,aywyts Kat to tOO
l;uy1O xpll~atootKovO~tKWV ouvaA.Aaywv, aUa OEV ta e)J;YXet nA"pUlS.
TEAOS, npos evioxuoll tllS af,101ttonas tOU cruotiJ~atOS, UmlpXel geO~lKTJ OO~C>TJ
tWV Apxwv: Ta npollYOU ~eva tpia xapaKtllptOtllCa opil,Ovtat Oe VO~lOUS tOU KpatoUS Kat
OtOV KCltaOtCltlKO x6.ptll tllS KevtptKTJS tpantl;llS. 01tOte, yta tllv eYKCltaAetlJlll tOU ou
onWCltOS ClnCltteltal OxetuciJ VO~0getlK11 pu9~tC>TJ. AutiJ, ~ tll Oelp6. tllS, Cl1tClttel xpovo
Kat Kan010 paS~o KOtVWVlKTJS cruVatvtOeWS. H Oe eq>Clp~O'Y'l tllS OEV elvat tOOO Cl1tA" 000
tllS ClmxpaOecoc; ~taPOA"S tllS tcrOtl~ias onWS OtO e1tO~VO OUOtll~Cl, to 'truly fixed ex
change rate'.
fta tllV KCltClv6'1011 tOU currency board, ClPKel 11 ouyxptC>TJ tOU tOO AOytO~Ou tllS Ke
vtPlKTJS tpantl;llS ~iClS XWPClS 11 onoia to XPllOt~onOtEi ~e tOY tcrOAOYlO~O ~laS tumKTJS
KevtptK1\S tpClntl;llS LtO 1tapaOety~Cl nou ClKOAOUeei 11 VO~1tO~CltlKTJ paC>TJ, 11 1tAeupa tOU
A.A.
Avt~OUAa'tO~
19
rra8'1Tl1cou, TIlS rrproTIlS KEvrPIKljS Tparrti;'1S KaAU1ITEWI rrAljpws arro ouvan.aYlianKu a

rr08 t llUw .
]0'0AOY10'1l0S KEVTPIKljS Tparrti;'1S
Xropas liE Currency Board
]0'0AOY10'1l0S KEvrPIKljS T panti;'1S

Xropas xwp~ Currency Board
EVEPY'1 UKO
TIa8'1 TlKO
EVEPY'lUKO
TIa8'1nKO
Xpucr6S & LuvaHay
KUKAQ(POP01iv Xp~).la
Xpucr6S & LuvaUoy
)..lanKa. Arro8z).101a
K01V6
).lo:nKU Arro8tpulO
KUKAoq>opOUV
Kotv6
o Xp~).larOKlpcilTlO
Tp01rEi;rov
Xp ~).lo
o Xp ~!,orOKlpwno
TIi<l'!"'''~ K. T.
Tp(l1[Ei;wv
o KUPEPV~!\KU
KoraetcrEl(; Tp01rEi;wv
o
O!,6AOYO
Allis nl(J'!WOEl!;
KometO'w; Tp01rEi;wv
H KEVTPIKlj TpurrEi;a "1S OrorEP'1S xwpas 1l1wpd va au~ljO'El T'1 VOlllO'lianKlj pUO"l 1<mu
POUA'1O"l Kuvovras rrpu~EIS avolKTTJS ayopus il ausuvovms "1v mO'TwcrTJ "1S (Jllli, Ih
mWIJfil,) rrpos "1v KU~i:PVlIO''1 lj TIS ElllWPIKtS Tpum:i;ES T'1S 1[Pro<'1S OEV Il"opd, otvo
vras OUO'illO'UKU W xtpla "1S.
H avwTtpw crUYKPIO''1 avaOElJCVUEI Kat Eva O:A'-o xapaKTI]pl<HIKO <wv currency
boards: H KtvrPIKlj <pO:1[Ei;a oty tXEI "1 ouva<o"1m va 1[apuO'XEI PEUO'<OT'1m O'<IS TPU11:E
i;ES "1S xwpac;, O't ntpin<wO"l avuYK11S /l.EV 1l1WpEl va AtHOUpyljO'EI wS i5avfilm~, rdfiv
raia, KararpvYllC; (lender of last resort ), YEYOVOS <0 01[oto a uc,uvEI T'1 O'a8po<'1m TOU XP'1
lla<OOlKovollUCOu O'UcrT1jlla<os. Ev avu8EO'Et, O'<IS XropES xw p~ currency board, '1 KEvrPI
Klj <po:ntsa ~l1lopEi va EK11:A'1proO'EI au<lj <'1 AtHOu pyia, auE;o:vovws us 1[[O'TroO'EIS <'1S
1[POS <IS EIl1[OPUCES <po:nEstS ' "1S xwpas. AuE;uvovras, O'1Aaolj, <0 Aoyaploollo AUES
TIIO'<WO'EIS O'''1V 1[AtUPO: <OU t vtpY'1UKOU Kat Kam8EO'EIS Tpa1[Ei;rov O'TIlV 1rAEUpO: <OU
1[as"UKOU ( ~UnE<E O'XEHKU <0 Ev8ETO 11.'1" ).
o Il'1Xav10'1l0S ~O'w <OU onotou W 1000i;uylO nA'1pwl!cilv E1I:'1PEUi;EI "1 vOlllO'lianKlj
~uO"l ElVat rrapoliolOS IlE aUTov K0:8E O'UO'<ljlla<os O'Ta8Eprov 1000Hllu:OV. TIapouolo:i;t<at
aVahnLKO: O"'lv EV0"1W 15.2 "EE;W<EPIKlj AVlO'opporria - AmoliaTOS Lm8EporrOl'1uKos
M'1xavI0'1l0s". Erri <OU rrapovros, tva 1[apo:oElYIlU apKEt.
cO'<w on urro:pXEI rrAtOVaolia O'W 1000i;uylO rrA'1pwllroV. To nAEovaO'lia amo avn
O'TOIXEi O'E U11:Ep~uUouoa i;lj"1O''1 yill <0 vOlllO'lia TIlS xropas (pUnt<E T'1V E<paPlloylj 2.2.
"SP > 0 =:> Y 11:Ep~uUouO'a Zlj<'1O''1 yta TO EyXroplO NOlllO'lla"). TIPOKEllltvou va arro<pEu
X8d '1 ava<ill'1O"l TOU EYXWptOU vOlliO'llawS, '1 orroia 8a urrOvOllEuE w rrproTO ana m 8E
O' IiIKO: xapaK<'1PIO'HKU <ou O'UO'TTJIlUWS, '1 KEvrPIKlj <punEi;a rrapEIiPatVEI O'T'1v ayopo: O'U
vaUO:Yllaws: Ec,aAt1<pEI <'1v urrEp~uUouO'a i;ljTIlO''1 rrouArovras <0 EYXroplO vOIlIO'lla, w
orroio auc,uvEI <'1 VOlllO'liauKlj PO:O''1, Kat ayopui;ovms c,tvo, w orroto auE;o:vEI w ouvaA
AawauKu arr08Ellaw. To aVTIO'Tpo<pO o"1v rrEptn<WO"l tAAttlillaws O'TO 1000SUYlO rrA'1
pWllroV.
To currency board ljmv <0 crUVYJ8ES crUO'''1lla <wv arrOIKu:Ov. EYKaraAEi<ps"KE O'WOI
aKu O'W IlE<u TOV B' TIaYKOO'Il10 TIoAEIiO Xpovta, OWV 01 aVEE;o:pT'1<ES rrMov anolKiEs El
O'ljyayav Ol1CU <ouS VOlltO'llaw. LUIl<pwva IlE w /I..N.T., w 1960 urrljpxav 38 XropES Kat
arrolKiEs 01 orroiEs EiXav currency board. To 1970 dXav IlEWl8Ei O'E 20, EVro TO 1980 O'E
1l0AlS 9.
ErravljA8E, OIlWS, 0'T'1 O'UVtXEta, O<'1V rrpoO'rr0:8Eta rroUrov IlIKProV xwprov va avr1llE
TwrrtO'ouv IlEYUAtS llaKpOOIKOVOlilKES aVlO'opponiEs, Kat 0'1 TOV U'\lTlAO rrA'18wpI0'1l0 . 0
OIKOVOIiIKOS E8vlKlO'Il0S tOWO'E T'1 8tO''1 TOU O'TOV OIKOVOIiIKO rrpaYllaUO'll0. H apxTJ tYIVE
IlE "1v [O'aywylj wu currency board O'TO XOVYK - KOVYK, TO 1983. TIapou TO XOVYK
KOVYK ljwv TO<E BPEWVIKlj arrOlKta aKa 11'1, TO VOlllO'lia ava<popus ljmv w OOAUPIO
H.TI.A..
Ta crUyxpova currency boards txouv ws vOlllO'lia ava<popo:s w OOAUPIO Kat TO EUpro.
Avuw:O'a ow XOVW ws vOlllO'lia ava<popus TO OOAUPIO E;EXWpti;ouv (O'E rraptv8EO"l <0 E
20
m; E'Clayooyi],) TIl, Apyf;Vt'V1j, (1991 ) Ka, TIl, A,80uuvU:u; ( 1994). LTIl A,80uaVlU TO CU
pciJ aVTU((lTEClTIlClE TO OOAUpto Ta 2002. Avu~Cla ma EXOVW 00, v6 ~tcr~a aValOpU, TO
cupciJ SEXooPU;OUV TIl, ECl80via<; (1992), BouAyapla<; (1997) Kat Bocrvla, - Ept;EYO ~[V1l,
( 1997). Tu TEAeUTala up;(1XU Eixav 00, VO~tCl~U ava<popu, Ta [Ep~VtK6 ~UpKO. To ~UPKO
Clw~aTIlCl E Vcl KUKAo<popd 6wv EtcrTtx8'1 TO cupciJ.
H KClTappcuClTj TaU currency board TIl, ApYEvnV1j, 10 200 I, EV ~ClW ~Cl8ui, xp'1~
TOOtKOVO~tKft, Kp[ClEoo" U1lV8U~tcr E Ta opm TOU EV A6yoo ClUClTft~UTO" 61lW<; Kat Ka8E (IU
CllTt~ClTO, CluvuAAuy~nKciJv tcron~'ciJv. KuvEva crUClTIl~u OV ElVat 1lUVaKEtU, OmE ~1lopd
Vcl U1l0KUWClTftClt tva OAOKA'1Poo~VO 1lAUlcrtO OtKOVO ~'Kft , 1loAmKft, ~ crT6xo TIl ~cl
KpOOtKOVO~IKft Kat XP'1~UTOO'KOVO~IKft crw8p6TIlTU. BAE1lT ClXEnKa TO Ev8TO 5.3
"Exchange-Rate-based Stabilization Programs".
:EUYKP1V6~v0 ~ 10 'dollarization ', TO currency board EiVat 1lpOn~6Tpo Ku86n '1
XciJpcl tX1TO 01K6 TIl, V6~ICl~U Kat Elm OV xaV Et TO Etcr6o '1~ Cl1l6 TO EKoonK6 1lPOVO~tO.
'01loo" O~oo" K(ll ~ TO 'do llarization ', OEV ~opEi vu UClKftcrEt aUT6vo~'1 vo~tcr~anKft 1t0
AmKft
E1ll1lAEOV, TO currency board ElVUl EUKoAoTEpo vu EYKUlaAE1<p8d. Aoyoo T'1, U1lap
SEW<; Eyxoopiou VO~iCl~UTO" TO KOClTa, EYKuTUAiljlEW, EiV(ll ~lKp6TEPO a1l6 6n "TllV 1lEpi
1lToocr'1 TOU 'do llarization' .
"Truly Fixed" Exchange Rate.
LE UUT6 TO crUcrTIl~U, '1 KV1PlKft Tpa1lEl;u uVUKOlvrovEl mu8Epa lClon~iu tVUVTL KU1l010U
lClXUPOU VO~iCl~UTO" /)oAupiou, cupro, yliv, ... H /)mlTtP'1Cl'1 TIl, UV(lKOtvoo8lClU, lClon~i
a<; U1l0TAEi otCl~UCITj TIl, KVTP1Kft, TPU1tEI;'1" L1tCl ~ucr'1 '1 01lola l'1piwl E<pOClOV TO
o<pEAO, u1l6 l'1V Tft P'1crTt TIl, SE1lEpVa TO K6C110, u1l6 l'1V uetTIlcrTt T'1'.
H U8E1'1C1Tj, 1taveoo" TIl, t:v Myoo OEcr~ClEoo, DEV U1l0TEAEi 1taveoTE 8t~a UnATt, 1l1
AoyTt,: TIOUE, <pOpE, U1l0TEAei UvuYKuClnKft E1ttAOYTt Ku86n'1 KEV'tplKft lpa1lEt;u OV EXEt
TIl ouvu16TIllU va m'1piSEl TIlv UV(lKOlvoo8Elcru lClon~la. Kut, ~aAtClW, UvuYKucrnKft E1l'
AOyi] u1to n~Ttcroo" '1 01tola i;'1~tillVl TOUS EXOVT, 1lEvoucrw; ClTO v6 ~ICl ~U 1'1, xropu,.
AvsaplTtToo, 1taVToo, TIl, OUVUT01'11U, Tt ~'1 , '1 u8ETIl Cl'1 TIl, /)Ecr~UCI oo, EVEXEt W ClT01
XEla TIl, CluVuUUY~ClnKft, KplClEoo,.
LUYKP1VO~0 ~ TO 1tpO'1YOU~VO crUClTIl~a, TO 1tUPOV iV(l1 Aly6TEpo mu8EpO. E1tI
oTt OV U1taPXE' 10 8W ~IK6 u1tO~Cl8po TaU currency board, '1 aAAClY Tt TIl, ClVUKOlvw8Eicr'1,
lClon~la, it KCll '1 EYKCllaAE lljlTj TOU (lUClTTt,lClTO, Kat u108t1'1Cl'1 Ka1tOtOu Cl1tO TCl 1tO~Cl,
VtXEl ~lKPOTpO K6C1TaS.
Adjustable Peg.
Ol APXt, UVClK01VroVODV ~iCl crlCl8EPTt tcron~la (peg) YClV'tl Ka1tOtOU Cl1t6 TU Kupm vo~i
CI~alCl, KCll U1t6C1XOV'tCll Vcl T'1V ClTIlPii',ouv ~EClCl CI Ko.1tOm 6p'Cl. NCl ~'1V E1tLTPEljIOUV, 0'1
AU0 Tt, ~yo.A, Cl1tOKAlcr14 Cl1t6 ClUTftV. L1mTIlPOuv, 1tl1lAEOV, TO O'KClioo~a Vcl ~ETClPaUouv
TIlv tcrOll~la 6wv 10 1t,~aAAOUV 01 ClUV8TtKE,. 01 ~ETCl~OAE, ClUTt, dVCll ClXEllKo. Cl1to.VL"
~ Cl1tOTtAeCl ~u '1 tcron~iu Va1tClpOUCllai;E' ~yo.AE' 1tEPI600u, mCl8p6TIlw,.
H ClU~1lEpl<p opa TooV lClon~tillv ClE ClUT6 10 ClUCll'1~Cl 8Cl OlX8El ~ 1tpClY~11Ko. ClTOl
XEla Cl1t6 l'1V 1tpiooo lOU 'Bretton Woods', TOU 1tClYKo Cl~iou CluClTft ~alo, tcron~tillv ~la
10V B' TIClYK6C1~1O TI6Ae~0 (PAt1tETE TIlv v6TIlw 13.6). L ClUT6 TO ClUCl1'1~cl, '1 lcron~iu
TooV om<p6poov VO~tcr~o.looV TtWV 1tpOClOlOP1Cl~Vl') tVUV'tl lOU oOAClpiou, ~ 1ll1pm6 6P10
~ pClXUxpoviwv u1toKAiClEwv 1%. 'OlClV, o ~w" U1tTtPX xpovm ClVtcrOPP01tlCl Cll0 tcrOi;uylO
" TPEXoUClroV (lUVClAAClYrov, '1 tcrOll~(Cl ~1tOpOUClE Vcl aAAo.i',l - Ei', OU KCll 0 1tpOClOlOPlCl~6,
'adjustable' .
To ClX"I~ 13.5 1tupoUCluii;l 1'1v tcron~iCl TOU [UAAlKOU <ppo.YKOU, l OU EA~nKou
<PpUYKOU KCll TOU [Ep~avlKou ~a pKou YClVn lOU OOAapiou, ylCll'1V 1lEpiooo a1t6 TOV lu
VOUo.plO 195 7 - 61ClV ClpXii;ouv W ClXllKa ClT01Xla ClTIl ~aCl'1 OEO O~WV International
Financial Statistics, ~EXPI 10V L1EKE~~ P 10 1970 - Aiyo 1tp'V TIlv KUTo.PPEOO'1 l OU ClUCllTt
~ClTO" LE aU16 TO OlaClTIl~, 10 [ClAAtK6 <ppo.YKO U1tOn~Tt 8'1KE lpEL; <popt" ~ TIlV ll~Tt
A.A.
Avt~OUAOt<O<;
21
TaU OOAapiou va aUSUVETaI a1l6 3,5 '1'puYKa avu OOAUplO TOV IClVOUUPIO 1957 aE 5,55 TOV
Auyouam 1969. ,H loonl.tiCl tau EA~EnKOu '1'PUYKOU llape)!elVe OTaeepij, yupw cna 4,3,
Kae' 6ATj TT] OIUpKelCl TOU u1l6 EseTClOTj olaaTij)!aTo<;. HAO<;, TO rEp)!ClVIK6 )!UPKO ClVClU
)!ijeTjKE ODO '1'0pe<;, TOV MUPTIO 1963 KCll TOV OKTW~PIO 1969, '1'epOvtCl<; TT]V laOU)!la Cl1l6
4,2 )!UPKCl ClVU OOAUPIO TOV [ClVOUUplO 1957 OE 3,6.
rx~~a
TI~~
13.5. Iuar,wa Bretton Woods - Adjustable Peg
TOU "'aAapiau o( raM IKo <IlpayKO,
EA~(TIK6
<IlpOyKa Kal
r(p~a VIKO
MopKa, 1957 -1970
6 ~
5,5
r ailAIKo <l>p6YKO
EA~Tl KO
4,5
<1>pciYKO
r Ep~aviKO Mo PKO
3,5 ----J
L. I
3 ,
law;O
lav-57
lav.69
Mrjva<;
nrWrlllrZ)O),JVWV International Finandal Statistics.
Me Ta muu:plvU OEOO)!VCl tWV 1l0AU EU~ETU~ATjTWV tcrOtl)!tWV, to ~uotTj~a Bretton

Woods crtJ)!~UOtcre ~ eVt um,)oUlKij oTaeEp6tTjTa tWV OUVClAAClY)!Cln KWV 100tl)!tWV. Ot
aAAaye<; ijtav a71Uvl<;. KClI aut6 10xUE! KClt ytCl Ta VO)!tcr)!aTCl twv ulloAolllwV ~1O)!TjxaVI
KWV xwpwv. ~UYKeKpl)!eVa, Katci TTj OtcipKetCl tOU U1l0 eseTaoTj oIClotij)!ato<;, Tj tootl)!la
TaU iallWvtKOU yillv OIClt11pije11KE rUpw OTa 360/$ Kal TTj <; ItClAlKij<; AlpetCl<; yupw atl<;
620 AIPete<;. TTj<; opaX)!T]<; oIClt11pij e11Ke Otl<; 30 opClX)!e<; ClKPI~W<;, H Oe AYYAlKij Aipa u
1l0tl)!ijeTjKE )!ia '1'opa, TOV NOt)!~PIO 1967, Cl1l0 0,36/$ Oe 0,42/$.
Crawling Peg.
~e
>
XWpe<; )!e U'I'TjAO llA11eWPI0)!6, '1 OVO)!ClauKij laoTt)!ia avallpooap)!o~etQl TaKTIKU ~

OtJvexei<; )!IKpt<; U1l0tl)!ijoeU;, llpo<; allo'1'uyij ~yUAll<; llpay)!atlKij<; avaTt)!ijoew<;. To 110
OOaTO tWV UllcrTl)!ijaeWV ouvijew<; avaKOlVWVeTat EK TWV llpotepwv Cl1l6 tU; APXe<;, )!e
OTOxO va )!etWeei 11 aPE~Ql6TT]Ta 0XeuKci ~ TT]V laOtl)!la, KClI )!~i t11<; va ~tWeOUv 0 ou
Vf1.AAaY!!fJ.UKO<; Kivouvo<; Ka~ 01lw<; eCl OOU)!e ~ TT] IJVye~K'1 lIJObVYOpia., Tm y f:7tITOKimY
OtO Ke'1'UAalO 14, TO. EYXWPUl e1llt6KUl.
'EXel ODD KUpiw<; llClpaAAaye<;, ~tTjV llPWTT], to 1l000cno TT]<; U1l0U)!ijOeW<; e1llJ.eyetCll
)!IKp6TePO TOU llATjeWptO)!OU Oe )!ia llPOollueeta va Se'1'UYEI Tj xwpa 0.110 t o '1'auAo KUKAO
llATjeWptcr)!OU - U1l0tl)!ijOEWV (~Ullete TT]V EVOtllTa 3,5 "'Eva<; E1llKivouvo<; <!>auAo<; Ku
KAo<;"). [JpoKaAeiTaI )!EV llpay)!anKij avaTi)!Tjoll, ana eiVCll )!IKpOtep11 autij<; 11 01l0ia ea
llpoKa).eho xwpi<; n<; OtJVeXel<; u1l0U)!ijaEU;, aouvat~ovTa<; etal tOY '1'auAO KUKAO tOU
llATj 9w ptO)!ou.
~TT] OEUTEPTj llapaAAayT], to 1l0000tO U1l0U)!1joeW<; ellw:y t (ll etal WaTE va allo'1'eU
YETaI Tj llpay)!aTtKij avati~l11011 BUllEte TT]Ve'1'ap)!oyT] 13.5.
,
(~nOpIKOl:'e; T~e;
anoia tX(1 uljJ~II6T(po nA~9wPla~a KOHl 1% ~~vla iwe; ana TOUe; Kupioue;
Taipouc;. ria va (IvOi ~ noooonaia ~Ta~oA~ T~e; npawa n K~e; l oaT1 ~iac; T~e; ~~O(
VIK~ , o~Aao~,
%L1R = %LfS - (rr - lY)
A.A. A VT(OUA'lTOC;
%115 - 1%,
22
Kal va
1.111
X6VE1 OE avTOYWVIOTIKOTrITO ,
rrpETTEI
%,15 = 1%
~~vlaiwe; . To ff(au~~o,\j~EI TOV TTA~eWpla~o TWV E~TTOPIKWV Elaipwv T~e; xwpae;.
Eov 01 ayopt<;: YVWPIS"OUV auro TO TToaooro, KOI !JEoa OTT6 TrlV
KaerH.n: pIV~ TTpaKTIK~ T~C; K[VTPIK~c;
rporrsll<; TO qJTTlon:uovral , TOn: TO VXWPIO TTITOKIO m: ~.H1Vlaia ~6a" 80 [ivOl fao IlE TO (SlEevES: .
auv~ewc;: KClTTOIO ETTITOKIO TaU 50Aapiou H.n.A ~ TOU EUpW , auv 1% - TO TToaooro Tile;: UTTOTlI..nioE
WC; , auv TO orrola aa<poAlorpa KIVOUVOU KOI pEUOrOTllToc;: ~rllouv 01. 019vl<; 1TVOUTC;: Via va ETTEV
Maouv aT~v EV Mvw xwpa (~AimT( KOTWTtpw T~ auv/JI')K'1laOOUva{.lia, TWV WITOKiwv).
Edv, 0IJWC;, 01 ayopt<; (5[\1 j.JmOnUOVTOI TrW KEvrpIKr'] rpOTTEsO, TO (lTiTOKIO So EiVaI TTpoaau
~rH.Jtvo OXI KOla 1%, aAA6 KOla TO avo~Ev61-l[vo OTTO TIC; ayoptc; U4JflAOTPOnooDOTo UTTOTllJriOW C; .
BAimTE aXElIKa T~V E<pap~ov~ 14.5 " E~~VwvTae; TO AaTpovo~IKa ETTIToKla".
T o cra wling peg ~mOp Et va ~Ak1tW) 1tpo<; TO ).I1tpocml ij 1tpo<; tCl1ttClCO. Na a1to<paClii;Et Cl l,
OT\A.aoij, TO 1tOClOCltO tCOV 1)1tOH).IijClEcov ).IE ~a.Cl'l n<; 1tPO~A.t'l' E ~ Yill ttl ola<popa. t01) 1tA.'l
8CO P1Cl).lOU TII<; )(wpa<; Kat t COV E).I1tOP1KWV TII<; natpCOV ij ).IE ~a.<r1l TIl Olarpopa. t'l <; 1tPO'l
Y01)).IEV1l<; 1tEP10801).
Ev9ETO 13.5. To Crawlin
Pe
Ou 0 ia . 1995 - 2001
T ov MapTlo 1995, ~ETd OTTO lJia TTEpiooo I..IEydAwv EOWTEPIKWV KOI [ ~WT [ PI KWV aVlooPPOTTII.i,)v , 11
Ouyyapia ulo8tT~aE aUOT~~a crawling peg. 0 ~~vlaioe; pu8~o~ UTTOTl~~crEwe; aTOclaKa ~ E IWe~ KE
ono 1,9% TOV Mapno 1995 O E 0,2% TOV ATTpiAlo 2001. ETTiollC;, r]100TllJia TT1TpETTorav va KUlJoiv ETOI
OE J.lia ~WV'l 2,5% vUpw O1TO lllv KEvrpIKr') oloAla8aivouaa IOOTIIJio .
To KOTWTt pW ax ~~ a TTapouOla~EI T~V E~tAl~~ T~e; laoTl~iae; TOU <ploplviou (fiorint) we; TTpOe; TO
ECU ( ~ t XPI TO .!IEKt~~PIO 1998) KOI TO Upw (aTTO TOV lavouaplo 1999. Ta aTOIXEia EivOi ~~vlaia KOI
aVo<pEpoVTOI OTO fEAoe; Ko8E lJ~va .
To Crawling Peg T~~ Ouyyapia~,
1995 - 2001
300
!i!'
OJ
U
W
250 .
>
0
200
.~
a.
0
150
100 L
1995
--- -.---- .- ~ -
1997
- --_ ..._-- -
1999
2001
H auvaMawaTlK~ TToAITIK~ ~O~e~aE va ~ElweEi 0 TTA~8wplcr~ o e; aTTo 2 7.5% TOV MapTio 1995 crE
10.3% TOV .!IE Kt~~PIO 1998.
ME TOV TTA'l8wPIOj..JO va oro9pOTTOIEiTOI yupw OTO 10%, lOV MO"io 2001 '1 K(VTPIK~ TpdTTE~a
TrtC; Ouyyapfac; dAAa~E OTPaTrjyIK~ . AVTi va 8ETEI OlOXa Via HI ouvaAAaVIJOTIK~ IOOT1IJia, tSETE OlOXa
Via TOV TTA~eWpla~O. TauToxpova, au~~crE TO opla T~e; ~wv~e; crE 15%.
KAaOcrlK~ TTEpiTTTWOIl OUOT~lJaTOC; TO orrofo <p8aOl: ora 6pla TOU . Km IOXUp~ [VO[I~'l CHI r)
ouvaAAaVIJOTIK~
IOOTllJfa O[V arroTAd 8parr[fa Via 6Aa TO KaKO.
T o crawling peg 1tEplOpii;El ta 1tEp18 w pla aCllolClECOC; amOvo ).l'lC; VO).llCl).lauoo1C; 7tOA.lHoo1<;
Kata. 1tapO ).lOlO ).IE ta Cl1JClTIt).la ta Clta8EPWV lClOU).I""V tp01tO. Ev Cl1JvtO).lta, a1tO TIl CITlY).Iij
1t01) a 1to <paCl ii;Etat to 1tOClOCltO TIle; 1)1tOT1).l~ClEOlC;, '1 KEVtPloo1 tpa.1tE!;a OEV ).I1topEi va E1tl
USE110 E1tt7tEOO ta1) EY)(Olp(01) 1tltOKlO1). B U 1tEtE Cl)(EtlKa. TIl Cluv8ijK11 lClOO1)Va).ltae; 1COV
E1tltaKtCOV ClTO KEq>UA.aLO 14.
01 Cl)(E1UCOi, O).lco<;, 1tEPlOPlCl).lOt EtVat hY01EPO a1)Cl1'lPo i. H KEvtPUo1"pa.1tE!;a ).I1tOp E(
va a A.AaSE110 1tOClOCltO 1)1tOtl).lijClECO C; ).IE KOCltO<; ).I1KpOtEPO Cl1tO 10 KOClW<; EYKataA.et'l' EOle;
Ka.1t0 Ul<; Clta8EPa.<; lClOtl).lta<;.
A.A.
Avt~O UAalOC;
23
Basket Peg.
To basket peg unotEA.El nup uA.A.uyJ\ tou adjustable peg KUl TOU craw ling peg. LE uUtO to
cr6aTll~U, 11 lcrOtt~ia KA.EWcOVEt(lI) crE EVU aTU 8 ~lcr~VO KuA.a8m ~EVWV vo~tcr~atwv KUl
Ott crE Kanolo cr1)YKEKPt~O lcrZUPO VO~lcr~U. To basket peg <YIlvtcrtamt yw. tcOpEe; Ot 0
noiee; E~nopEuOVmt ~ noA.A.e; aA.A.ee; KUl zpElasOVmt vu btutllPOUV tllV uvmywvtcrnKOtll
m tWV npo'iovtwv tOUe; Ott ~ovov we; npoe; m npolovm KanatUe; ClUYKEKpt~YT]e; tcOpUe;
uA.A.a we; npoe; tunpo"iovm oA.Ci>v tWV E~nOptKcOV taUe; Emlpwv.
Ano A.oytl(Jle; nA.Eupae;, TO ' basket peg' ~nopEI va ElVUl E~ lcrou crW8EPO ~ TO ' ad
justable peg' . LtllVnpa~ll, o~we;, OEVelvat.
Kat' apmv, at tcOpEe; Ol onoiee; avaKOtVcOVOuv 'basket peg' cruvft8we; KpataUV ~u
ClttKlj tT] cruv8ecrll tOU KaAa8 tou vO~tcr ~atwv. E1t1.nA.ov, ~Em~aA.A.ouv upKEta crutya
tOue; cr1JvtEA.eCltEe; ~uputllwe; Ka8E vo~icr~atae;, Ka8taTcOvme; OUClKOA.ll tllV EK"tl~ll Clll Tlle;
cr1JV8EcrEwe; TOU KaAa8lOU ano E~WTE plKOUe; napaTllPllTEe;. ne; anOtEAEcr~a, Ot avaAutEe;
of:\! ~nopouv va KPlvouv Eav Ot napatllPOU~EvEe; anaYEe; Tlle; tcron~lae; avtaVaKA.oUv ~E
W~OA.e; TWV lcron~tcOv TWV vO~tcr~<itWV TOU KaA.a8tou iI uA.A.ayJ\ taU KaA.a8lOU iI a
K6~11 Kat EYKaTaA.etl]l1l tau crucrTiI ~atoe;.
Kat aUTO ElVUt Et ~apoe; Tlle; Ot!lq><ivElae; Kat Tll e; U~to1t1.crtlae; TOU (j1)crtiI~atoe;. Mt
KPOtEPll a~101t1.aTia crll~alvEt ~yaA.UTEPll mClll ano TOUe; E1tf:VOUTEe; Kat ~tKPOtEPll 1t1.Ba
votllW E1t1.PtffiClEwe; tOu cruCln'l~aTOe;.
AKO~ll Kat aT1]v nEplm;wcrll onou at tcOpEe; avaKatVcOVoUv tT] cr1iv8ecrll TOU KaAa
BlOU, TO ClUYKEKPt~VO cr6crtll~ Of:\! EtEl Tll Ot!lq>avEta Kat Tllv KaBap6Tllw/clarity tau
anAou peg. LE KaBE anuyJ\ tlle; tcron~lae;, Ol avaA.UTEe; npEnEl va Kavouv UpKEtOUe; uno
A.oytcr~06e; npOKEt~VOU va E1t1.PE~UtcOcrouv on to cr1icrtT]~a Eq>a p~osEWt onwe; EtEt avu
KOlvw8EL
EK TWV npuy~atwv, A.omov, to 'basket peg' Elvat A.tyOtEPO Clw8EPO an6 TO 'adjust
ab le peg'.
Target Zone.
Ot Kf:VtplKEe; t pa1tEt;u; bEcr~uOvtat va napE~pouV crtT]v ayopa ClU
q>8acrEL KanO tO aVcOwTo iI Kat cOTatO OplO. Ocro
11 lcron~ia K1J~alvEwl ~EClU Clm opw. Tlle; scOVT]e;, Ol KEVTptKEe; TpanEt;Ee; bEY nap E ~palvouv.
ITapoucru'tsEmt napucrWttKa ClTO Clm~a 13.6, ~ EvU un08EttKO VO~tCl~a, ta No
Value tlle; Utopia. H KEVTptKlj Tpa1tEt;a tlle; Utopia napE~palvEl va ClT11P~E l to NoValue
omv 11 lcrOtt~ia TdVEt va ~1[E pacrEt TO aVcOTEpo OptO tT]e; scOVT]e;, OTUV, OllA.abiI, TeivEt va
unOtt~1l8d nEptcrcroTEPo ano Tllv tcron~ia :ji [NV/]. EnlClT]<;, napE~pa(VEt va E~acr8Evft
crEt TO NV (CltT]P~Et to EUpcO) oTav tdvEt vu ~EnEp<icrEt ta KUTcOTEPOOPlO Tlle; scOVT]e; OWV,
ollAabiI, TdvEt va avan~1l8ei nEptClcroTEPo uno tT] v lcron~ia s'- (NV/]. Lne; napE~p<i
ClEll;, 11 EKT ~noPel va cruVE1t1.KOUpei tT]v KEvtptKlj tp<inEsu tlle; Utopia.
LE auto TO
cr6crTll~a,
vanay~aToe;
omv 11
ovo~aClTtKlj lcron~ia
rx~~a 13.6. Target Zone - napaaTOTlK~ napouaiaa~
Luv~uoCJ~6c; LUVOIJ.OWOTiK~C; Lrae(p6T~TOC; KOI LuvolJ.owmIK~C; Eu ("~iac;
IcroTllJia
NV/
naptlJ ~ocrl)
Via
crT~PI ~1l TaU NV
S" [N V/ ] i -- -- --i-- - -- - -
SL [NV/E] I -- - - -- - - - - -'l- -
nopt )Jj3aoll Via
OT~PI~I) TaU EuptiJ
Xp6""
24
1Ol"~gD9ihL03
sz
:519.0"0001'\7 ~ISD1i-oI<.l.XlOll '1'W'-:r

)O l~'(OOA'AV y'V
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Ql
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PUE souoZ lojjJ~l", u~wjjnl)! In~d n01 oded\, 9"'DDD'(> 01 3131Lnf[ ,
'lE~ ojju~4ox3
~Oj~IY3n3 5~>l1onADYYDAnl 10> 501U19d38Dl1 5~>I1DrtAoYYDAnl jort.oonQAnl jO>113docbOl'J

~]AOYVDdoU ~ld3DDH - auoz la6Je,l 'L'~ ~ onyXl
'li,/<UlL1;>AD l,omioAo)llo li \1 A'9lill A(1)1 D1li1gd38Dl.D li J(1)lL9 ')aoX91.D J(IO,(

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-3 A(1)l 9lnD 13~1JU3.oodlL Dli lil.D\\.o 01 'o'(1;>,I.3li IDA)3 JOd\\3 01 nOlL9 ' od)l\' o'('('? 011
'JD)lillOm Jb J(1)3'1)dbo li:>OJ.1;>AD Ali1 9lLD ID13]dOl~00dlL \1:>Illl'(OlL \1:>IllDli01lioA li '1;>)1110
-moO{) '9HID 31i J\\Oli01dood 3lL JnOl~) Jn01 13'(,(1;>8llL3 ID)I AC!lllillom AC!ld38D10 A(1)1 91nD
13~))U300dlL Dlilil.D(\D 01 ' 9d)llli \\'(OlL IDA)3 JM<]lJ Jli1 Jod<;l3 01 nOlL9 'od)l'9 DA~ 011
'JMC!lJ Jb A(lJ)do A(1)l
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-9'( 1;>'(lLD 3W ']Oli01dOld3lL 10 ID)I IDAp IOd319dbonD 0091 'lid31\\,(DJ.3li IDAp D8 A(1)30'98
-113dDlL A(1)l D1b9MnO liID)I W1;>AD lill9 13A)Dlilio O)OlLO 01 'Jb Jod(}3 O1IDA]3 Od319d)l
-Ili 000. 'J \1:>IIlI'(OlL J\1:>IllmimlioA Jlil lioli:>OO1;> Alil.D J\\01101dood3lL 13,(,(1;>81lL3 MC!lJ H
'C l Dli\1Xo 01,0 IDlI\oJ'9'0nodDlL J~J.1J'('(DdDlL
J3101?1 Jld300?l 'JD)1I'(3n3 ID)I JD1b9d 38D10 J\1:>IllDliJ.D,(,(DAnO 9lioDet~Ano 9)1113d o dm
-H/ 30 p XlOlmMD A(1))0lLO A(1)1 )13 D)li 381;>)1 'J?AD'('(DdDlL J?'('(OlL 13X? M<]lJ li 'JliD)lL'3:
'JMC!lJ Jli1 J9M3 Ac:nlillO.DI A(1)l D1
-b91li,(8D13li lil JD1AOAc:n3li 'J 3d 319d)llli IDA)3 JD)lillOO1 J b J?'(08D13li 10 JMC!lJ Jb md
-9 D10 1;>MO)l 'JIOJ.)'(O A'3: 'J b A(1))do A(1)l J9M3 ,D)lillOOI Ab ID)I 13J1;>3dlilL3 'AC!lI)lO~oodlL
A(1)l (1)0?11 ID)[ '''')J1lillOO1 A(1)l J?TIll J ?)lIMo'(13li J ?AD8llL J11 lil A J3):>IO~OOdlL JI1 13J1;>
-3dli1L3 'J01Dli\1l.Dno et01 JD)101lLOI,/D Jb 9)111Dl.Dno 'JMC!lJ Jb md9 D1 D)X<UllL3 O1i A<;I0l.D
-llL.oDd3lLet De J ?Xdy 10 119 1JO~.oOdll H 'AC!lllillOO1 AC!l1li,(8D13li Dlilil.D\\o 30 ID)I J(1)lL9
IDMOd?dnd3lLlino JMC!lJ Jli1 A(1))do A(1)l J9M3 J3)lillOO1 10 '\1~D'(li~ 119 ' luli9AolnD Ab
9"D lid319)10'("et'(OlL IDA)3 A<]lllillOO1 AC!l)lIlDli AD,(,(DAno A(1)l 1;>dodnd3lllieto li 'J(1)M1;>ll
'nS OId9 01 9"D (1)11;>)1 138?lD)I DA 13A)31 D)lillom li AD19 O<bOdlO)Mll oJ. 'Jol1Jlio)liOA
et01 lioli)OllOdnX01 rnA J3):>IO~OOdlL JnlAC!lAdn0111li~ \1 JlldC!lX Jb lIl)l91llL3 D1 JDMoA1;>'/nll
'J?ln~Alll3 J31C!l1'l1 9"ll n01 \10lil\IJ b 130\1,/etD DA )3d Ollli 'Jl1DJlL'3: 'mmi?80llD Jb 1;>:>111
-DliAD'('(llAnO D1 9"ll lll1mli9A o~'/ 3li J DMOAC!ldli'(lL ID)I J01miJ.1;>,(,(DAetO 1;>dOJ.ll Alil.D son
-IBAoN JD1AoJ1;>doJ.D etOl \1Db\1J lil13A1;>,/nD ~ldOln Jb DJ 3lLl}dl \1:>IldlA3)1 li 'rrS OId9 01
9"D (1)A1;>ll13\1?AD DA 13A)31 ~nlBl\oN et01 D)lillOm li AD19 'Dl1 A\3~dDlL (1)d ?l(1)AD 011
'" J01DliAl}'('(DAnl 1;>doJ.V Aliw lloD8li?dDll" 6' \71 0138~
01 1;>)l1l3X.o 313ll?,(S 'J11n'lAlll3 J)3"8:n~ Jn01 9"D Dli.olli9 A J?Al80D 01 DA lioli1\1J lil AnO.o
-\1,/nD DA A(}08DllOodlL J ?Xdy 10 'D)lillo m \1:>IIlAO'('(311 b rnA Jl}dOJ.D Jb Ac:n)lo~.oodll A(1)l
\\olioD3dli1L3 rn38l}".oodlL \1 AOl):>I01llL3 A(1)l \1'(0\1m3li 3W ~o03lili? IDAp 0<;1'110'('(1;> 10
'JDdC!lX Jlil A(1)11;>li3eOlLD
AC!l)l11DliAD,(,(DAno A(1)l lio\1dX JD1AOAl})I '(}OdnX01 n01 li.oli'(C!llL ID)I J01Dli.o)lioA J<;IOAl8.o
-ll 001 l}d OAY :Jo03li1;> IDA)3 J0l<]ldlL 0 'JnOlL9dl J)3dl 31i IDlAOA) A "3.o1;>8li3dDlL 10
'llob\1J lil ID)I 1;>do<b.oodll Ab Ano .o1;>3d
-li1L3 DA A\\08Dll.oodlL 'JOOl ''301;>8li3dlllL "1 3li 'J3)D103"(3110 'AC!lJ3llDdl A<]l)lldlAl)l A(1)l
J3)licte1lL3 "1 9lLD IX9ID)I 'J01DliJ.1;>'('(DAnO l}dOJ.ll Alil.D A(1)ll}li01lioA A(1)d9<brn'l A(1)1liob\1J
lil ID)I 1;>do<b.oodlL Alil 9lLD IDMo]d01~.oodlL J 3)lillom 10 'AC!lJ 3llDdl AC!l)lldM3)1 A(1)l A(1)30
-1;><bOlLD AC!l)lllli:>OIOI~ \1<bdoli b 13X? DA )3dOlLli A3~ liOD8li1dDll li 'J1;>doJ.ll>Jlil Dlili1O(\D 011
0lX>'(~,"3)I - Xlpi oAOX1 00 aXXlW 11lX 5~aoA Xllmil.taX ')13.o ~lI a3gn)I
NVI
IOOTllJfo
NVI
YTToTl~OJal
rJ
IOOTI)Jio
KEVTPIK~ IOOTll.lia ,
TO EUPOC; TI)<; ~wvrl<; lTOPOlJVEI m08Ep6.
S" [NVI]
S" [NYI]
5" [N V11
S' [N VI]
I
xpOlIO<;
xp611O<;
NV/
NV/
IOGnlJia
IOOTl\Jio
S" [NVIj
S" [N V/j
l\IWPUV0I.IVrJ <WVI1
1.1 OW8Ep6 KOTWTOTO aplo .
5"[NVIj
<wv'1 1.1
I.IETo!3aM0I.lEva Ol.llPon:pa TO 6plO .
~1upuv6lJ (V'1
S' [NVI]
Luyxpovo rrapuolYfla target zone arr01AEi MrlXaV1(JI'OC; LVVaMaYl'arzKwv ]aOtll"Wv

(Exchange Rate Mechanism - ClUVlOflDYpacpia ERM) tOU Evpw7l:aii<ov NOl'ltJl'arzKou LV
mTrllaWC; (European Monetary System - ClUvt0floypacpia EMS), arro tTl yi:vCllllOu to
1979 EOOS tTlV aVtlKa1uCl1:acrtllOU arro tTlv O.N .E. tOY Iavouupl.O 1999. To 6plO rrap fl~u
ClOOS tlmv 2,5% EOOS to [992 Kal 15% fltErrl1:a. To ERM avtlKataCltu811K arro to
4YOflvO ERM II, 10 orroio arrot4i rrp08uAaflo tTlS O.N.E..
Managed Float.
H- CluvaA1.aYflatlKt] lClOtlflia arrocpaClit;tat arro ttJ; OUVUfltJ; tllS ayopus, tllOl, tTlv 7l:pO
arpopa Kat 111 i;r,TrfrJl'f CltllV ayopu CluvaA1.uYflatos. 'OClO Kal va to tlSAav, Ol KvtPlKES
>
tpurrsS, Kat Ol ApX:S yvucotpa, ov flrropouV va Err~ulliuv ClttJ; ayopEs tTlv E71:l8Uflll
ttl yta aUtES lClOtlflia.
To fl6vo rrou flrropouv va KUVOUV Ol KEvtpUCES tPUrrESES Elval va rrapEfl~aivouv CltTIV
ayopu CluvaA1.uYflatOS rrpoClrraSWvtas va E"11PEUClOUV tTlv rrpoClcpopu Kat tll StltTIClll. Na
au~uvouv tTl stltllClll tOU vOfliClflatOS 10 orroio Elval aClSVECltEPO arr6 6tl Sa E71:l8uflOU
Clav, Kat 111V rrpoClcpopU tOU vOfliClflatOS 10 orroia ELVat lClXUp6tpo.
Lt6xoS, ClUvtj8ooS, ElVat 11 arrotporrtj flEYUAOOV flEm~oAwv tOOV tClOtlfltWV. Lrravt6t
pa, 11 rrltEU~l1 KUrrOtaS ClUYKEKPtfl"11S lClOtlfllas
'Orroos Kat CltllV rrEpmtOOClll lOU target zone, Ot rrapfl~UClE tJ; Y[VOVtat fl tpEls tp6
rrous: Ayopu tou vOfliClflatOS otav urrotlflUtat Kal rrWAllC!1j otav aVatlflUml, flm~OAtl
tOOV Errn01QOOV Kat rrpoClrru8Eta "11PWClflOU tOOV rrpoClOOKtWV tTlS ayopus yta tTl flAAO
vtuctltClotlflta.
LtllV rrEpmOOCllI 6rrou Ot APXES rrpoClrra80uv va Clnlp~ouv flia tClOtlflta tllV orroia Ot
ayopES 8CilPOUV urrEptlflllfl"11 tl UrrOtlfl1lfti:v1j, Kat Ol tpEtJ; tp6rrOl EXOUV ppax6~ta arro
tAClflam. E71:lCltpEcpoVtas CltO rrapUOEtyflU tTlS Utopia, ta CluvaA1.aYflanKu arrOeflata
tTlS xwpas Elvat rrplOplClflva Kat OV ea OtaPKEClOUV Erri rroAD yta tTlV ayopu lOU No
Value.
LtTlV 71:Epi71:tOOClll tTlS rrapflPuClEOOS fl XPtlClll tooV E71:ltOKlwV, m u\jfT\A6tpa 71:lt6Kta,
ta orroia arranoDvtat yta tll <m\P~l1 tOU NoValue, ival EtJ; ~uPOS tTlS OlKovOfltKt]S ava
rrtD~OOS (avuAuC!1j fl to urr60etyflU ISILM). AUt6 rrepLOpit;El tTl xpOVlKt] OlUPKEta XPtl
Clews lOUS
AA A vt~ouA6. lO<;
26
Oaov OE o.<pOpU aTOV E1O]pECla!J.0 1WV 1[pOaOOKMV yla TIl !J.EAA.oV1lIC1i taou!J.ia, EUV Ot
UyOpEe; 1[tO"1EUOUV OU TO NoValue ElVUt U1[EPU!J.'l!J.f.VO, Ot 1[pOa1[U8EtEe; 1WV APXcOv vu
1[Eiaouv AU OEV Su U1[OU!J.'lSEi Elvo.t OUaKOA.o VU ivut E1[t1UXElc;. KUl, 1[UV1We;, oxt ytU 1[0
AD xpovo. l1Eptcra01EpEe; 4mO!J.f.pEtEe;, Kat 1[UA.!, 0"10 .vSE10 14.9.
Pure Floal
LE UutO 10 crUa111!J.u 11 KEV1ptKT'\ tpU1[E~U OEV 1[UPE!J.~o.ivEt KUSOA.ou aUlv uyopu auvuA
A.ciY!J.UlOe;, U<pT]VOV1Ue; u e; ouvu!J.Et; TIle; 1[poa<popue; Ko.t TIle; ~11"T]aEWe; vu 1[poaotOpiaouv
TIl (JUVUA.A.uY!J.uuKT'\ taon!J.ia.
13.6 I:uO'TlilJaTa IO'oTlIJ1WV - I:uVTOIJIlIO'ToPIKIl AvalipolJll

Tu KiJptU auatT]!J.u1U O"UVMA.aY!J.UUKOOv taon!J.tOOv, U1[O to tEAOe; lOU 190 UMVU, 01UV up
xtaE vu Otu!J.Op<pOOVEtUl KUnotU nUYKoo!J.1a vO!J.ta!J.(J.nKT'\ 1u/;11, !J.Expt crT]!J.EpU, 1[o.pOUmUso
V1Ul alO OXT]!J.U 13 .6 !J.(J.si!J.E n)''lPo<popiEe; ytUl'lV OtKOVO!J.tKT'\ 1[OAtnKT'\.
rx~~a
13.6.
ruaT~~aTa ruvaMav~aT'Kwv laoT'~'wV
KOIVWVIKOU KDl 01KOVOIJ1KOU nEpl~dMoVT OS
Mtpo<; TOU IEvlKon:pou
TcrOTl!liu
1879
1914
Kuv6vac;
'tou XpUCiO\) ,
Lm8Eps
Ia01t~lES
1945
A'&B'
naYKoa~lOC;
n6AE~oC;,
1973
KUlla'v 6~evES IcroTt~(EC;,
LucrTiWa
Bretton Woods,
Adjustable Peg
Managed & Pure Float
nEP(OOOC;
MEa01[OAEIlOU
OlKOVOlllKT] DOAttlK!!
np\Op~(J~oi 010
'OX'
i'>18vC; E~llOPlO
LUVaAA.awanKOi
DEPlOPlcr~oi
Kpatucos
napE~Doncrlloe;
, -
LTaolaKT'\ ~Ei",a'1 allo TO TAOS

T'1S oEKaETiae;
TOU 1950
'OXl
Nat
'OX'
NOl
DEpalt.op'"
~i",a'1
I LTa0taK'1' allE AEu8EpWa'1

'
allo TO TAOS 1'1S oEKaETiaS TO',! 1970
LlaOlaKOe; llEP lOp"'~OS
UllO Tle; apXEe; t'1S oEKaE
.:ri,!S..:r.Q~..!..2~9_
OlV(OVIKot
& ITOAtrlKOl
'OX'
Nw
Nat
DEPIOPlcrIlO[
Tu EV A.Oyw auatT]!J.(l1u UVU<pEPOV1Ul one; KiJptEe; pto!J.llXUVtKe; XOOp<;. Onwe; 1[POKU1[1l
(mo "'lV UVUAU01l 010 1[UPOV KUt atu E1[O!J.EVU lpia KE<pUA.aIa, Kat aUvO'l'iI;E1Ut 0TIlv EVO
"11"U 17.5 "Llo.SEpEe; Kat MEtU~Alltte; laon!J.iEc; - LUYKPtttKU 1140vEKtT]IlU1U", Ot !J.yu
4e; aE otKOVO!J.tKO J.ttyEBoe; ~tOwlXo.VtKte; XOOpEe; EXOUV t'lV EUXEpEtU EntAoYT]e; auatT]!J.Ul0e;
taOnluOOv. Ot U1[OAOtnEe; XOOpEe;, UVEmUY!J.EVEe; Kat !J.'l, OXt: To CVOEt1CVUO!J.Evo yt' UutEe;
crUO"1'l!J.u E/;UptUto.t U1[O ne; EntAoYEe; tWV 1[pOOlWV xwpOOv.
l1pmpEXOVtUe;, KU1[OtU unO 10. auatT]!J.U1U, 61[we; to LuaTIl!J.u Bretton Woods Kat'l
O.N.E., T]lUV a E !J.EyuAo ~USIlO -KuSon OEV AEtl0upY'lao.V 1[UV1U crU!J.<pwvu !J.E 10V UPXtKO
,. aXEOlaa!J.0-(J.1[01E4a!J.u EU<pUOUe; aXEolua!J.oD, alU 1[Auimu otE8vODC; O"UvEpyuaiue;. f\A
AU, onwc; 0 Kuvovue; tOU Xpuaou (Gold Standard), 1[POEKU'I'UV U1[O KEKtll!J.f.V'1 mxU1'l
m. TEAOc;, KU1[OIa UAA.a, 01[(f)S m auatT]!J.ulu !J.EtU~AlltOOv toOnl.l.tOOv !J.EtU tOY A' l1aYKo
a!J.to f10 4!J.0 Kat !J.EtU TIlV KaluppEu01llOU 'Bretton Woods', 1[poT]A8av a1[o TIlV 1[iE01l
"troy
YEyov61COV.
AVE/;aplT]tWe; 1[pOEAEUaEWe;, aE oAa T]mv 1[pWlaywVtatT]e; m OtEGvi] E1[EVOUnKU KE

<pc't.Aata -la avaAuo!J.EVa !J.E 10 taoSUylO XP'l!J.Ul00tKOVO!J.lKOOv (JUvaUaycOv, f\UOtE KpU
A.A.
AvtCOUA(ho~
27
<pOS, Ulli10t <pavt pos ~t KunOtU crucrnlilam avnJ.lG1OWnU;Ovcav 8tnKu, ws cr,a8EponOtll

nKos napuywv, cre U1,.A.a apV11nKu, wS cmocrm8EpOnOlTlnKos. ~1Oa npona crucrTljllam m EV
1,.6yw KE<pU1,.alU ,;mv E1lnpocroEna, crm OEU1Otpa oXt.
AA.A.OTt t1,.tU8Epa, UA.A.O,t ntploplcrlltva, m OLE8v,; EnEVOUnKU Kt<pU1,.ata <paivt<at
on 'EAtKU Ktpolcrav ,ov n61,.tllO Kal tYlvav crns TlJ.lEPES llaS anoOtnu, tcr,w Kat av Ka,u
KatpOUS EV,elVEml 0TlIlOmOS npO~1,.Tlllancrllos yta 'Tlv avuYKTl xa1,.lvaywY-ricrEwS mus
ITpO~1,.Tl llancrllos onoios cruvott,at J.lG 'U; ytVlKO,tptS cruV8T]KES cr'Tlv OLEevi] OlKOVOll1a
Kat 'U; OLE8vtu; XPTllla,ayopt<; Kat crllvO'l'U;Eml cr'Tl crUYKPlcrTl ,WV 8EnKWV Kal apVT]nKWV
'Tl<; naYKocrlllonol';crEwS
'Evas uMOS npwmywvlm,;<;, onoios crnaviws an01,.all~uVEl 'TlV otoucra avayvwpl
crTl, elVal Ol ytvlKO<EPES KOlVWVlKES Kat nOAtnKts cruvS';KE<;. EnElo,; ,0 crucr'Tllla lcronlll
WV EnTlPEui;tl ,ov ,pono J.lG ,ov onoio Ol oLEcro,;nmE OlUmpaxtc" an6 'Tlv EYXWPlU Kat ''l
OLE8v,; OlKOVOIlIa, Ka8ws Kat an6 'U; tYXWPLES Kat 'U; OLE8vtU; xp'llla,ayopt<;, E1nlPEUi;ouv
''lV olKOVOll1a Kal tmllEpii;ouv ,0 KOcrW<; npocraplloY-ri<; cr,u; OtU<P0PES KOtVWVlKtS OIlUOES,
'l anoooxT] Kal'l EUpu81l'l 4 noupyia onOlOUO';11:0,E crucrTljJ.lUWS E~ap'Umt ano 'U; EV A.6
yw cruv8ilKtS, Lltoolltvou OE on aUtts aUui;ouv crUVEXWS, Eva crucr'Tllla ,0 onoio A.EnOUp
Y'lcrE lKaV011:0111nKU cr,o napE1,.SOV icrwS va Il'lV A.enoupyd nA.Eov.
LlEV Elval ,UXaia on Tl EmA.oy'; crllcr'';lla,OS cruva1,.A.aYllanKwv tcronlltcllV ano 'U; IlE
yU1,.ES ~toll'lxavlKts XWPES crllll~UOJJ;t J.lG 'U; YEVlK6,Epes ,ucrEU; Yla 'TlV OlKovOlltKT] n01,.l
nKT] Kat wv KpatlK6 napEIl~ancrllo cr'Tlv OlKOVOllla. To crX';lla 13.6 W aVaOElKVUEt., EVW
Ol En61lEVES tv6''l,ES W ,EKIlTlPlwcrouv - Eviott Ilt (avano<pEUK'"fl) ava<popu crE ava1,.lln
KU EpyaA.ela ,wv En0lltvwv ,ptWV KE<paA.aiwv,
E~ avuYKTlS, 'l napollcr\a<J11 Ka,WtEpW dvat crllvOmtKT], crXE06v EntypallllatlKT]. 'EXEt
Kam~A.l18el 11:pocrnu8Eta, OJ.lOlS, va Il'lv Elvat a~tWllanKT] , o'l1,.ao,; va ,EKIl'lPtcllVOVCat m
otU<popa 8t lla,a Kat Iluhcrm J.lG ocro ,0 ouva,ov A.tyo,epes ava<p0pES crE aVaA.lltlKU Epya
A.ela ,wv enoJ.lEvwv KE<pa1,.aiwv. Ita nEplcrcro,epes 1,.EmolltpELES, EVOta<pEP0 J.lGVOS ava
yvwm'lS IlnopEi va ava<pep8e[ cre KunolO ~l~A.io OlKOVOlllKT]S lcr,opias: Kal IlU1,.lcrm, a
<pou EXEt J.lGA.eTljcrel m KE<pUA.alU 13 - 17.
ITuvcwS, onws 8a <pavd cr'Tl cruvtXElU, m 8Ella,a ,a onola U11:WVCut cr'TlS crmSEpo
'Tlms Kat 'TlS ~lwcrtIlO'Tl'as ,wv OlU<pOpWV crucr'Tl!l<i,wv cruvaA.1,.(lYIl(lnKWV tcrOtllltWV n(l
P(lIlVOUV OlUXPOVlKU m IOta. T(l KUptO,Ep(l e~ (lmwv napollcrtUi;ovmt cruvomlKu K(l,W
,tpw.
ErrENHl IvrKPoYrH META::V ErOTEPIKHl KAI E::OTEPIKHr lroPPonJAL H ecrW'EPlKT]
tcropponla (lva<ptpeml crE mXel(l avunru~'l Kat u'l''l1,.'; an(lcrxoA.'lcr'l, Tl e~w'EplKT] crE l
cropporel(l cr,o lcroi;uyLO ,pexoucrwv crUV(l1,.A.aywv K(ll crm lcroi;uylO re1,.'lpwllwV. 'Onw<; (lVU
1,.U8'lKe m(l crevupta wu Ke<paA.(liou 10, 'l mxeia (lvunruS'l cruv,;8wS o0'lyei cre xetpOtE
peucr'l tOU lcroi;uYlou ,pexoucrwv cruvaU(lYwv. 'Orews oe aVaA.U8'lKe cr'Tlv evo'Tlm 2.4
"EA.A.eillllat(l 'au lcroi;uyiall T PEXOllcrwv ~IlV(l1,.A.aywv", ,a olapKT] eA.A.ellllla,a ,au tcroi;u
yiou ,PEXOUcrwv cruvaUaywv OEV dval crull~a,u J.lG tIl OlU'';P'lC>'1 m(l8EpUS lcronllias
Kat ' (lvaA.oy[a, 'l OtOp8wcr'l EVOS EUdllll(lWS mO lcroi;uyto tPEXOUcrWV cruva1,.A.aywv,
cruv,;8wS (lre(llTei Em~puouvcr'l tTlS avarewSEws 'l oreola crull~(lOU;Et IlE (lUS'lcr'l 'TlS (lvep
yl(lS. ITEpwcr6, EP(l crEvupm 8(l (lvaA.u80uv crm KE<pU1,.alU 15 Kat 16,
At> VNAMIA ArKHrEol AYTONOMHr NOMlrMATIKHl nOAITIKHr ureo Ka8ecr,ws crm8Epus
lcronlli(lS Kat EA.eu8tpas Klv,;OtWS ,wv EneVOllnKwv KE<pa1,.aiwv (~A.i;reE'E 'U; eVO''ltES
15.5 "Levupla OlKOVOlllKT]S IToA.mKT]s" Kat 1.6.5 "EtOtKU 0 t ll(lm").
ATCEllreOA.WVCas oucrlUonKu t va ano t(l OUO opyav(l acrKT]crews OtKOVOlllKT]S reoA.tn
KT]S, 'l 0'lllocrLOvOlltKT] reo1,.mK1'] Ka4i,al V(l crull~unE l cr''lv EnhED~'l Kat 'TlS ecrw,EplKT]S
Kat 'TlS E~W'EP lKT]S tcropporel(lS - KUtl to oreoio, orews (lV(lA.U8'lKE mo V8EtO 10. 9 ITEpi
- tOU Apt81l0U ,wv Opyuvwv 'TlS OtKOVOlllKT]S ITo1,.mK1']s, E[Vat reoA.U OUOKOA.O.
~UVl(miJVTat IOlatttP(J)C; Tn p,pl.la tPIWV Kopu<pal(J)v OIKovoll0l.OY(J)v: Globalizing Ca pital - A

History of the Intern ationa l Monetary System, by Barry Eichengreen (Princeton University Press,
1996), The Rules of the Game - Interna tional Money and Exchange Rates, by Ronald I.
McKinnon (The MIT Press, 2"' Printing, 1997), A Financial Historv of Western Europe (2"' Edi
tion) by Charles P. Kindleberger (Oxford University Press, 1993).
AA
Avt~OUNhoc;
28
~VNHTlKA AVTO-EniBEBAIOVMENEr IVNAfv\A,MATIKEr npOrt.OKIEr ot 01t0l, ~11topi

vu apODV EhE Cna8Ep01totllllKcl Et'tE U1tOCHU8EP01tOtllllKCt. L"1lV 1tpci,.r~ 1tEpimOlall, 11
1tpOaOOKlU Ota"1lp~aEOlS "1lS mueEpCtS taoll~ius 1tPOKUAet KlVT]all tatOlnKWV E1tEVamtKWV
KECPUAUiOlV -o.VUAUovrUl ~ 'to tCJoi;uyto XPll~U'tOOtKOVO~tKWV cruVUMUYWV CF-ll o1toiu
~01l8Ct vu OtU'tllPlleEL To uvrieE'to ~E "tc; u1toaWep01tOtll'ttKS pot,. BA1tE't aXllKa TI1V
EcpUp~oy~ 14.9 "AU'tO-1tl~E~UtoDl1ev, npoClaoKl, Y1tOlll1~aOlS" .
KEPt.OIKOmKEr Em0EIEII. Y1tO Ku8Cl"W, muepwv to"ortjllillv, ot E1tlea!, tOlV
KpaOaK01tOlV ClE KCt1tOlO v0l11Cll1a yivOvrUl alyoupu a'tOl~I1Um, alll110upywvm, ~lu
auvul1t~ '1 01toia eiVUl ouaKoAo vu Uvrll1E'tOl1ttO"1:Et. BA1tEtE aXEt1Ka to v8'tO 16.1
"KpOOaK01tlK, E1tleaElS - EK 1:0U AacpuAou,;".
~IAOPETIKEI OIKONOMIKEI IVN0HKEL 0 OLUCPOPEllKO, 1tAlleOlptal16s u1t6 meWtWS
amepwv taonl1tWv ~tWV1 tllv aSI01ttatia tOU ClUClt~I1UtOS KUl all~lOupyi uatUe~ au
VU~I~. 0 AOyo<; etVUl on 11 1tpuYl1un~ uvutil1llall tOlV vOl1ta~a1:OlV tOlV XOlpWV 11 'tOY
u'VllA01:PO 1tAlleOlptClI10, KUl 11 cruv UUnl U1tWA.eLU uvmYOlVtClnK0"1l1:U<;, oa1Wet a OtUp~
KUl alupuvo~Vu AA.eI~/lUw 'tOU laoi;uylou 1:pxouawv auvuMuywV. Tu t EA.eUmia, 6
nOlS 1tPOUVUCPEpellK, alll110upYODV 1tlall yLU U1t01:1111l"1l 'tou vo~lal1utOs tOlV eVAOyOl XOl
pwv. 01 OE aXEnKES 1tpOaOOKl, 1tPOKUAOUV U1tOaW8Ep01totlltlKSS eKpOSS E1tEVOUtlKWV
KCPUAUlmV Ot 01t0lS 1tl1:UxUVOUV 1:11V u1totl~llall.
YnEV0VNH ~EmOZOYIA XnPA . H U1tUPSll ~luS oEa1toi;oul;u, xwpu, l1e "1lv OtKOVOl1t
~ 8tlVU~ll Kat til eEAllall vu crul1~aA.et atUep01tOtll1:lKCt. H ev AOyOl XWpU UnOAUI1~aVt
Ka1tOtU 1tpov6~tU, UMCt CPEP! eu8tlVT] yLU "1lV UPUel1ll A.eltOupyia 'tOU ClUCln'l~U'tOS Eav
a av uped a'tO u'VOS 1:OlV nptO"tCtaOlv, mOtWKOvrU, 1:0U, OtKOUS "1lS at6xous OIKOVO
I1t~, nOAl1:u<11S, to oUa'1ll1u yivEtut EUCtAOltO.
Ev cruvro~ia, 1l1lYEtlau xwpa 1tPE1tEl, uva~au ae CtAAU, vu 1tUPEXt EvU a1:ueep6 "1l
~io uvucpoPCts yLU tOY 1tAlleOlpla~6 KUt vu AUI1~CtV1, E1tl1tA.EOV, U1t' o'VtV ttc; yeVtKOtEPES
auVe~KS ae 6A.eS attc; XWPE, atll xapUSll tllS OIKOVOl1t~S 1tOAltl~S "1lS
~IE0NH IVNEPrAIIA. H al~S Cluvpyuaiu 11 01toia ~Ollea Cl'1l Cl1:u8ponoI1l"1l tOlV
1tpOaOOKtWv KUt 1tUPEXEt m ~Eau a tlS XWPES u1t6 mall vu uvrt~tOlnlaouv 1tapOatKES au
aKoAlS a1:O taoi;t\yto 1tA.llPOlI1WV 'tOUS
OA.U 1:U uVOltEP<O 1tl~~atWvouv On 11 otKOV0 I11~ AOYl~ ov aMCtI;lI1 tllv 1tCtpoao tOU
xravou. H aE avacpopcl ae am;a Ka'tOltEpOl elCJllYl1:at on aMCtl;ouv ~ovo Ot auVe~KeS U1tO
ttc; 01t0lS A.ettOupyei. Me CtMa AOyta, 11 OtKOVO~I~ AOyt~ elVUt aLUxroVl~ r
o Kav6vas TOU XpuO'oli (Gold Standard), 1879 -1913.

Os apm tOU aUClnl/lUtOS eOlphUl 'to 1879 omv 01 H.n.A . crul11tA.~pOlaaV tOY Ka1:aA.0Yo
tOlV KUplmV ~toI1fIXUVtKWV XOlpWV "1l, 1tOX~S 01 01toles 'to eixav UlOeeT~aet. To H.B., 11
I1YUA.UtePll t at e ~lOl1llxaVl~ xwpa KUl KEvrpO 1:0U aleVOUS xpll~atOolKOvOl1tKOU au
m~~ato, "1lS E1tOm" ~wv mov Kavava tOU Xpuaou a1to 1:0 1821. Ot aAA.es xwp, to
ulO8t'1laav apy6tepa, aMa 11 oLUolKaaia ~m~clae<OS a amo 1tltUxUVellK I1Eta to
1871, a1:av 11 fP l1avia, 11 OU1:Pll all~avrtKa1:Epll ~1:Ct to H.B. jllOI1llXUVtKl1 xwpa, aKO
AOUella to napaoIYl1a 1:OU.
Tu KtlpLU 8Cll1tKCt KUl A.el1:0UPYlKCt xapmctllPlallKcl1:OU
1tlvaKu 13.3.
aUat~l1UtOS
auvo'Vii;OvrUl atOv
29
nivaKac; 13.3. Kav6vac; TOU Xpuaou - Kupla 8Ea~IKa & AmouPVIKa XapaKT~plaTIKa
I. Itu8Epij avtaXlcaK1:1Kij oX~o'l HOV VO)llO)l(lTOlV ~Vavt1 TOU xpuoou. AUTo lo08uva)lou
oE ).I.E Otu8EpEe; b1).I.EPEic; oVO)laonKee; 100n)lu:e; ).I.ETa~U OAOlV TOlV VO)llO)l(lTOlV (Eq>ap
)loyij TOlV TP1YOlV1KWV 100n)llWv TOU Ev8ETOU 13.1).
2. EActi8EP'l ).I.ETaTpOml EYXOlPiou vO)lto)laWe; OE xpuoo.
3. KaAUIjI'l wu KU<A.Oq>0pOUVTOe; xpij)laTOe; )lE xpuoo.
4. EActi8EP'l bw.ouVOPillKij KtYllO'l EnvbunKwv KEq>aAatOlv. Ouo1aonKo., bv UmlPXav
ouvaA.A.aY)lanKOt np10p10)lOt (pAEnETE "lV Ev6T'ltu "M1Kpij Xwpa - EltEKTaOEle;"),
onOle; bEV Ultijpxav Ka1lt EplOp10)lOt onc; E~aYOlYEe; Kctl ElOaYOlyee; xpuoou.
5. EAEU8EP'l KtYllOll ayaewv Kctl U"'lPWtWv. 6EV UmlPXav nEplOp10)lOt OTO 8lE8vt<; E
)lnOp10.
'HTav Eva a~lOltlOTO OU0"l)lct 100n)llWv, OE tva q>tAEA.cUeEpO OlKOVO)llKO 1tEp,~aA.A.ov.
KaTa T'l b1apKEtO WU, UmlP~E )lEYaA'l aVa7ITU~'l TOU blE8voue; E)l1tOptOU aA.A.a Ka1 "lS K1
vijOEOle; blE8vwv EnEvbunKwv KEq>aAaiwv. EvbE1KnKa auTije; T'le; avanW~EOlS civctl on tu
nEp10uOlaKa OTOlXEta 010 E~OlTEP1KO Eq>8aoav TO 1914 010 20% TOU ltaYKOO)ltOU AEIT,
ano )lOAIL; 7% TO 1870.
EntOlle;, ,0 EUE1)lfla TOU 100i;uytou TPEXOUOWV ouvaA.A.aymv TOlV ).I.EyaAOlv OlKOVO)ll
Ka XOlpWV, Ka1 0' aV1:iOT01XES pOEe; E1tVbUnKWV Kq>aAaiOlV Y1a ''l XP'l)laT086"loij 'OU,
OUXVa Eq>8avav TO 5% TOU AEIT. 'Eva TET010 EUE1)l)la oij)lEpa, ltapa "lv ).I.EyaA'l avamu
~'l ,00V blE8vwv xp'l)latuyopwv Kctl T'lV ouv auTij )lEyaAuTEP'l WKOAta XP'l)laT080TijoEwe;
TOU, eEOlpcitu1npoaYYEAOe; ouvaA.A.ay)lanKl'je; KpioEOle;. TOTE A.c1TOUPYOUOE an01:EAEO)la
nKa Evas aUTO)laTOe; Otu8EpOn01TlnKOe; )l'lxaVlO)lOS 0 ono[oe; Ob'lYOUOE OE 100ppOnta 1:0
100i;010 TPEXOUOWV ouvaUaywv xOlpic; UltO'{)l'lO'l ,OU VO)ltO)laTOe; TOlV AA.c1)l)lanKWv
XOlpWV.
61Kaiws, 'Inpiobos TOU Kavova TOU XpUOOU xapaK"lpiOT'lK Ole; 11 ltPW"lnpio
bOe; naYKOO)l1OnOlijoOle;. H 8EU'PTl civa1 aUTij T'lV OltOta bl<iyou).I.E ,wpa, evav a1wva )lE
,a "lv npWT'l.
H A.cnoupyta ,ou aUTO)laTOu oTa8pon01'lnKOu )l'lxaV10)lOu )lnopEt va ouvoljl10eci
Ole; E~ije;: Ins xwpe; )lE EAA.c1)l)la ow 100i;uy1O Tpxouomv ouvaA.A.aywv )llOlvOtuV Evbo
YEVWe; TI VO)llO)lanKij KUKAOq>opta. AUTO, OltOle; aVaAUETctl OTO Ev8ETO 13.6, Ob'lYOUO O
mwoTl TOlV YXOlpiwv n)lwv, bTlA.abij avtlltA'l80lP10)l0, TI onoia Ka81mouo Ta y;(mpw.
ItP1000TPO aVtuYOlv10nKa. M XPijOll "le; SlOWOEOle; (13.2), Ob'lYOUOE O npaY)la,lKij
avaTi)l'lo'l. Avt10TOixOle;, OTIL; xwpe; )lE n4ovao)la 010 100i;uylO TPEXOUOWV ouvaA.A.a
ywv, npoKaALTo npay)lanKl'j aVaTt)lTlo'l. MEOOl b ,00V )lEtu~OAWV TTIS aVtuYOlv,onKOT'l
Tae; npxo,av ~OlTP1Kl'j 100PP01ria: ,0 EA.A.E1)l)lanKO 100i;uylO TPXouowv ouvaAAaywv
~AnwVOtuV, ,0 nA.coVaO)lanKO )lElOlVOTUV.
'O)lOlS, TI nhu~TI TTle; ~OlTEP1KijS 100ppOntas ltlTUyxavoTav OE ~apoe; "lS WOlTP1
Kije; 100ppoltias, "'lPai;ovtae; o"lv ltopEia buoavaAoya TIL; a08VEO,pe; OlKOVO)llKEe;
Ta~IL;. 1:UYKEKp1)lEva, 'l )lEiw011 TOlV n)lWV ObTlYOUO O )lE[0l0'l TOlV )l108wv. 1: aV1:i8w'l
)lE oij)lpa, 'l EAA.c1IjlTl 10XUPWV pyanKwv OOl)laTEiwv Ka1 OOOillAlOnKWV - pyanKwv
KO)l)laTOlV Ka8'OTouOE q>lKTij TTIV ltpOe; tu KaTOl EUEA~ta TOlV n)lWv.
'Evac; aUo EpyaA.ctO yill T'lV altOKaTamaOll "le; ,ooppontae; 01:0 100i;uy1O TPEXOUOWV
ouvaUaywv ijtuV Ta E1tnOK1a ,00V KEV,P1KWV TpUltEi;wv. 'Omv m OE XPUOO alt08E)lam
)lEtWvOV1:av, 01 KEvtp1KEe; ,paltEi;ES au~avav 'Ta EltlTOci tOue;. TOlOUTOtpOnOle;, Ta npo
OEAKUO)lEva E1tEvbUHKa KEq>aAa1a XP'l)lctTObOTOUoav TO EAA.c1)l)la TOU 100i;uyiou ,PEXOU
OWV OUVaAA.ayWv Ka1 altoq>wyomv TI EKpOij xpUOoU. Ka1 AUTOupyouoav oTa8Ep0ltOlTln
_Ka. 'O)lOle;, 'l aU~TloTl TOlV EltlTOKiwv Ob'lYOUOE O )lEtOlOll TOlV ltlmWOEOlV Kat, A6yOl au
Tijs, oE )lEtOlO'l TTle; napayOlyije; Ka1 au~'l0'l TTle; aVEpy[ae;, E"'lPE<iI;Ovtae; 8uoavaAoya Ka'
OE auTij T'lV nEpimOlOll HS ao8EVEOTEpEe; OlKOVO)llKEe; '~E'S.
A.A. AV-rCOUMTOC;
30
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III "lJOld98lJ:>I lU:>I "lJOlJ?dluL3 'SClOl \t1f\13'('(~ 1I \t 'S3lAOA"9dlJlL 1019) 10 'SlJlAoX~dlOdU
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1I 'AOl)lJ'(lJdl3)1 A<?)lllClg"3lL3 S?od S~)l1l1I1OlLOd39lJW 10 '9rim'(0~lJ"lJDOdlL "0' "9'CllJ "lJlL
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10 )orimd01d3lL 'S<O]dOlXh 1"0:>1 009 S<O]rioo""'nlL 009' SU]dodloY)I{t)I S\!"l1lJri01riOA Slll 1I0
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-9 I\'9TIllldu'(lL 0I,\.(l)OD1 OlD l\<!,\lLoddO>1l\lJ ~'\'etIDOlLlJ I\U1D 101;t ,lJlI\O,(,('ilgTIOO "lJdqJX ' lu.
l\(1)d)lJl3 I\qJ)l1dOlLTI3 1\(1)1 lJllJTITI)3'('(3 lJXIOlD)lI\lJ lJl l\etOOl,t10gOlooudX lJl\ mA- etOI$gl\oy
001 l\'9do'\'lJlooudX 1\(1)1 (1)o?Ti I\lJlI\OI\'9'()lOXlJl\lJ "S"H etOl I\qJ'\'lJ'('(lJl\etb I\qJDetOX3dl etO)'\'
-0)0>1 etOllJllJTIO'ilI\03'(lL lJl :"S"H etOl ,0'(9d '9)11dll\3)1 0 I\lJll,t 1\(1)A-'ildlJlL ,0'('('iI 'lJl\3:.
olXl,(,!,m3)[ - Xl~TIO~OX100aX:OW lXlX )~aO~Xl1:orll<aX ')13D~~a3ti0)[
H TapaxtiJ~'1<;
nEpfo~o<; TOU MEO"oTToAEIlOU,
1919 - 1939.
H nepioooS oun] XWpU;ETaL O'e TpeiS unonePI600u<;: TllV nepiooo TWV /.ITa~AllTwv 1000n
)1tWV, an6 TO TEAOS TOU nOA)10U )1EXPI TO 1926 - 6TaV 01 Kilpl<; pl0)111xaVlKE<; XWpeS elxov
e1!lO'TpE",El mov Kav6vo TOU XpuO'Oli. An6 TO 1926 EWS TO J 931, OTaV 11 eYKOTaAel"'l1
TOU Kavova on6 TO H.B. 0'11)10TOOOTIjO'e Kat TO TEAOS TllS npoO'na8elOS e1!lO'TpO,!>1,!S O'TO
npo TOU nOA)10U O'1imll)10. KOI on6 TO 1931 )1EXPI TO I;EO'nOO')10 TOU B ' TIaYKoO')1iou TIo
AE)10U, OTaV e1!lKpaTIjO'e miO'TIj)1a eAEYX6)1eVWV Oilll(1J)1avO'EWV /.1 KilPlO XapolCTllplO'nK6
n <; aVTaYWVlO'HKE<; UnOH)1ijaElS, TOU<; nePWplO')101i<; O'TO 0l8vE<; e)1nOplO Kal Ta OlEl1vij
enevouHKa Ke<j>aAaill.
H npOnOAE)11Ki] 1O'0pponio eiXe X08e ~ xwpi<; OK6)111 )1iO VEa vo EXel ppe8et. TllV eU
peall TllS VEOS laoppoma. ouaXEPOlVOV OlnOAtnKE<; Kat KOlVWVlKES el;eAil,CtI; 01 onou:<;, /.1
TIj aElpa TOU<;, TP0<j>oooTOuaav TIjv aO'Ta8ij 0IKOV0)11Ki] 1000pponio ae EVO <j>auAo KilKAO.
TIepanEpw, KOl11 0IKOV0)11Ki] 8ewplO OeV ijTOV O'e 8E<>1"\ OK0)111 vanpoTeiVel AElTOUPYlKE<;
AUO'etl;.
Ano Tll 8eTlKi] nAEupa, Ta npO~Aij)10Ta OUn]<; TIj<; neplOOOU ErLVav )1a8ij)1aTa yill
TOUS OPxnElCTOVe<; TOU )lETa TOV B ' TIaYKOa )11O TIOAE)10 OlE8vou<; V0)110')10nKOU aumij)10
TO<;, TOU YVWO'TOU W<; 1:uO'TIj)10 Bretton Woods.
,., v
T
1919 - 1926, KOTa TIj olapKeill aUn]<; TIj<; neplOOOU, 01 neplaO'OTepe<; XWpe<; aUVEXtaaV va
EXOUV )leTapAllTE<; laOTl)lU:<;, onw<; Kat KaTa TIj OuipKela TOU nOAE)lOU.
o U"'l1AO<; nA118wpla)10<; KOTa Tll OlapKElO TOU nOA)lOU KaL TWV npWTWV )1eWnOAe
)11KWV Xp6vwv, OnOTEAEO')10 eV noUOt<; TllS XPll)10TOOOTijO'eW<; TWV )leyaAwv eAAEl)1)laTWV
TOU npOiinOAOYLa)lOU )le eKTUnWall xpij)lOTO<;, aneKAElE yill Ttl; neptaaOTepe<; XWpe<; TIjV
e1!laTpO<j>ij aTIjv npo TOU 1914 LaOH)llo EvaVTl TOU XPUO'OU. AUTO Oe taxue nOAU neplaO'O
TepO Yill Ttl; XWpe<; 01 onou:<; Enacrxov ano unepnA118wplO')l0. H e)lnElpia T11<; fep)10via<;,
O'TOlXe(O TllS onoias neplypa<j>OVWl aTIjv eVOTIjTO 5.3 "To K6aTO<; TOU YnepnA118wPl
0')1015", eiVat XOpOKTllPlO'TIKi] .
EnmAEOv, 0 Oill<j>OpeHKO<; nA118wpLa)l6<; TWV Xwpwv anEKAElE TIjVe<j>Op)10yij onOlOU
OilnOTe aUanl)laTO<; O'W8epwv LO'on)11wv. To KOO'TO<; 8a ijwv npaY)10nKi] OvaTl)111all Kal
onWAela OVToywvlaHK6TIjTa<; YLa ns XWpeS )1e TOV U"'l1AOTepo nA118wpla)10.
<hav EVO aUaTll)lO xopaKTIjpU;O).iEVo ono onoO'Ta8eponollluKi:<; pOES eneVOUTLKWV
Ke<j>OAaiwv. KaL O'e OUTO auvi:poAav Ol OIO<j>OpeUKi:<; nOAtnKE<; Kat KOlVWVlKES auv8ijKE<;
ae aXE<>1"\ )le Ttl; npLV TOV nOAE)10 e1!lKpOTOUO'eS, Ol onou:<; oev enETpenOV Tll AelTOUpyia
TOU O'Ta8eponOlllUKOU )ll1xaVla)10u: Mv Unf]pXe 11 eAaanKOTIjW O'TIjV oyopa epyOO'iO<;,
6nw<; )1eiwall TWV )llaeWV, OUTe Kat KOLVWVIKi] ovoxij O'TIjV avooo TIj<; OVePyiaS, yill TlIV
el;aAEL"'l1 evO<; eUei)l)lOTO<; O'TO ta01;uyw TpeXOUO'WV aUVOAAayWV.
H OVanTU~ TWV epYOHKWV aUVOlKaTWV Kat 11 enElCTOO'l1 TOU OLKOtW)10TOS TIjS ",ij<jlOU
O'e OAE<; Ttl; KOlVWVlKES O)1aoe<; 011)1LOupyouae /.IyaAll nU:O'l1 O'TtI; ApXE<; vo owaouv /.IYO
AUTePll POPUTllW O'TllV eawTepLKi] laopponia ono OU O'TIjV eI;WTepLKi]. H OLKOVO)1LKi] nO
AmKi] apXLae VO Aa)lpaVEl un' O",IV TOUS ov8pwnous, 0XL)lOVO Ta v0)11a)lanKa )leyc811
AuTf] Oe 11nU:<>1"\ unovo/.lUe TIjv e)l1!lO'TOaUVT] TWV eneVOUTWV O'TIjv npoO'ij Awall TWV
APXwv O'e KanOtO LO'OU)1ia, )le onoTEAEO')lO Tll 011)lIOUPY10 ouro-e1!lPe~OLOU)levwv npoO'
OOKtWV unon)1ijO'eWS: <DO~OIi/.lVOl UnoTI)ll1<>1"\, Ol eneVOurES oneaupov W xpij)10Ta TOUS
ono TIj xw pa, npoKoAWVTa<; Ellel)1)10 aTO 1O'01;UYLO XPll)laTOOlKOV0)11KWV O'uvoUoywv
Kat, )ltaw ouroli, aTO Lao1;liylO nAllpW)1WV. Aur6, )le Tll O'elpa TOU, 0011YOUO'e O'e unOTt)111
<>1"\. Ttl; npoO'ooKiEs yill unOTt)ll1O'l1 eV10'XUe nepOlTEpW TO yeyovoS on 11 061;110'11 TWV e1!l
T01ciwv rill TllV unepaO'nlO'l1 TOU V0)11a)10TOS OeV ijwv nOAtnKa e<j>LKTij.
'Ev8no 13.7. t.IE8vrj ETTEvliuTIKa KE<pa"ala - 'O"a

vouv
A""a~ouvE
Kal 'O"a TO ' Ilila Mt
TTpo~A~~aTla~6~
Yla T~V aTToaTOSpOTTOI~TlK~ TTiop aO'~ TWV OISVWV TTVOUTIKWV Kq>aAaiwv

TToAu EVTOI/O<; TJ"lV TH:pio50 aUTr). To KOTWTtpw aTT6OTTaa~a arr6 J,Jia lJutTr'} Tr'1<; KOlvwvia( TWV
EBvwv (League of Nations). TOU TTPOKOT6xou TWV HVWIlEVWV EBvwv (United Nations). ival xapa
KT~plaTlK6. napariSHaI aT~ aMoa 51 TOU TTpoavaq>p8t vTo C; ~1~Mou TOU Barry Eichengreen.
~TaV
A.A. A V1(OU)",,,,0<;
34
(E~Elj8EP~ oTT60oa~)
~a
~ETd
TOV
TWV
TTO~E~O
OUVr]TIKW~
laTOpio TOU ,0AA,KOU <pPOVKOU

ETTITTTWOEWV TWV EAwStpWc;
~tXPI
TO 1926
OTTOTE~Ei
KUI.lClVO\JEVWV
(vo 15I150KTIKO TTOPOOElV
IOOTII.lIWV ...
01 Kiv i5uvOl
OUTO
rpo<poooTOUiJEVWV Klv~aEwv KEq>aAaiwv , UTTO Ko8ronlJe;: EAtu9tpwC; KUIJOIVO\JEVWV IOOTltJl<.i.Jv, avo

15ElKVUOVTOI K0 80po omi T~V 10AAIK~ E~TTElpia ... 01 aUTo-TpO<P0150TOU~EVE, Klv~a"" avTi va 015~
VOUV TO IOO~UV10 1T,\rlPW~.H.i.>v at loopporrio , (ivai maav6 va vlaxuaouv lllv apXIK~ QVloopporria Kai
va lTpoKoAEoouv EKP'lKTIKC;: auv8~KEC;: QVloopporriac;:.
o avayvwaT~, iaw, TTapOT~p~a" OTi TTapo~olol TTpop~~~aTla~oi UTTOPXOUV KOI a~~Epa Via TO 151(
8v~ ETTEV15UTlKO KE<pci~OIa Kal Via T~V avdVK~ ETTlPO~~, KOTTOIWV TTEp,op,a~wv aT~v Klv~a~ TOU,.
DAa aAAd~ouVE , KOI 6)..0 TO 10 10 I-ltVQUV..
'Eva O"IJOVTlKO rptinrUJo [ivat TTOU OTOIJOrouv 0 1 avaAoyiEC;: !JHa~u TaU O~IJpa, TTOU ~OUIJ lllV
OEUTEP~ TTEpi0150 T~, TTaVKoa~'OTTo,~aEw" KOI T~, TTEp,60ou ~ oTToia O~~aT0150T~aE TO Tt~O, T~,
TTpWT~" 0 XPOVO, 8a 15Ei~" ...
o TOTE
npopA'lllanallOS yta T~ arrlS TTlS cruvanaYllanKi]s a<J'Ca8EtOs aVTtKaTOnTpil:;"

aUTO TO onoio millEpo. o.vo.yvwpu;ouJ.lE ws 'KUKAlI01 AOytKi]' TWV cruvano.YIlo.ttKWV Kpl
aErov, tVKo. TTlS onolo.<; lVat SuaKoAo va Kpt8d notO lVat 'l arria Kat nolO TO o.nOTEAe
alla. AUTI] 'l AOytKi] aV~aVo.KAaTCLt (HO "aaywytKO KeillEVO TOU K<Po.Ao.lOU 14 KCLt o.Vo.AU
nat aT'lv <PaPIlOyi] 14.9 "AUTO-ntppaIOUIlVES DpoaSoKIS YnOttllitaWS". E(vat SE
anoTEAwlla TTlS nWpaaWS ~rov npoaSoKll.Ov.
LUYKKptJ.ttVo., unljpxav ~O<E SUo o.noIjlE~. LUIl<Pwva J.lE TTlV npwTTl, 'l auvanaYlla
nKi] aaTa8ta o<pEtAO~aV a~~ KpSOaKOntKES pOES K<paAatwv. LUIl<Pwva J.lE ~'l SU<EP'l,
o<pEtAO~aV <J'C'lV OtKOVOlltKi] nOAlTtKi]: Ot aUVanaYllanKES taOttllies anaSav yuni ana
SE KCLt 'l OtKOVOlltKi] nOAtnKi]. H TC AeU~aia 8wpd~0 Ott Sv lX auvExEla KCLt cruvEnEtO.
M SSOIlEVYJ TTl YVtKi] SUao.pEaKtO yto. TTlV cruvano.YllanKi] aa~a8tO, Kat Ot SUo
anoljl~ GUVYJyopouaav yto. nt(npo<Pit a ""aTTlllo. aTCL8pwv taOTllltWv, Kat S'l a~ov
1[POnOAeIltl(O Kavova ~ou Xpuaou. H npwTTl Otott 8a J.lEuiJVO~o.v Ot anoaTCL8pOnOl'l
TlKES pOE,. H SEUTCP'l StOtt 0' Kavovac; 8a nEpaA nl8apxia a~'lv OlKOVOlltKi] 1[OAlTl
Ki] (Aen~oJ.ttPlS En' o.mou aTTlv voTTl~a 17.5 "L~0.8pES Kat MTCLpA'l~ES IaOttllies LUYKpmKa DAOVK~itllaTCL") .
Kat Ot SUo o.noljl~ no.po.yvroptl;o.v TTlV mlSpaG11 TTlS anayi]s a~o KOtVWVlKO Kat no
Antl(O nEOlO, VKa ~wv onOlWv Ol taOttllies KCLt'l OtKOVOlltKi] nOAtnKi] itTCLv nAEov EVSO
yvdS 1l~o.PA'l~Es Kat nYJPEaSo~av o.no ns YVtKO~ PS OlKOVOlltKES auveitKes. Os au
VEnEto., Kanoto. paatKa aUaTCLTlKa ~'lS a~0.8po~'l~as lOU npOnOAlltKOU aUa~J.lUlOS OEV
unljpxav nAEov. Ot KUPPvTtaElS, aKOIl'l Kat o.v 10 it8Ao.V, SEV lXav TTl SUVo.~6~'lTCL va
8uataaouv anous aT0XOUS TTlS Otl(OVOlltKi]S nOAm Ki], a~o PWIlO ~'lS aTCL8pas taOttlllas
KaT! ~o onolo, onwc; K ~wv npay~a~wv anOSetKVUnCLt., yvwptl;o.v KCLt avayvwptSav
Ol mEvSu~ES Kat Ol npSoaKOnOt ~6te . Kat SEV ~Exaao.v nO~E, onws OlXV" 'l Kpia'l ~'lS
aTEpAivas ~ov LEnTEIlPptO 1992 (pAin,, aX!tKa 10 Ev8no 16.3 "George Soros KCLt 'l
Kpl"'l TTlS !:~epAlVo.s ~ov un~EIlPptO \992").
Amo <paVYJKE Ko.~a TTl St6.PKto. TTlS SUTEP'lS unonpt6Sou, ano ~o \ 926 IlEXPt ~'lv
fl,oSo lOU H.B. TO 1931 ano TOV Ko.vovC! KCLt TTlv unmlll'l"'l ~'l S aTpAivas. H uno~i
Il'la'l ~'lS (HpAivas dvo.t ~o YEYOVOS ~o onolo opt08!d ~o TEAOS ~'lS npoana8las nt
a~po<pits a~o nponoAElltKO auaTTllla.
1926 -1931. H EIlntpia o.uTI]S TTlS unonEpt6Sou aVaSlKVUl ~o anpo pAEn~o ~wv XP'llla
TOOtl(OVOlltKWV E~AU,WV aE Eva neptpanov onou Ot APXES EnWuiJKOUV nonouS aVTl
KPOUOIlEVOUS a~oxous J.lE Alya opyava nOAtTtKi]s (pAEnn ~o Ev8~0 10.9 "Dpi ~ou A
pt81l0U ~wv Opyavwv ~'lS OtKOVO~tKi]s ITOAlTlKitS")'
n a AOyOUC; OlKovollias KElIlEVOU, 8a o.vo.<pEp80ullE ntypo.llJ.lUttKa CJTTlv Ilntpla TOU
H.B., ~ovu;OVTas TO. yeyovom ~a onoia nponolllaaav ~o KAilla yto TO IlETa ~OV B' Da
YKOall1O DOAEIlO SlE8VES VOlltallattKO auaTTllla. rtO nptaao~epes AenTOIlEPW:S, auvt
a~aTCLt ~o 3' K<paACLtO ~ou PtPAiou TOU Bany Eichengreen KCLt ,a K<paAata 16 - 21 lOU
ptPAiou TOU Charles Kindleberger.
Mia o.aTOxla lOU KavovC! TTlv nEpiooo KlVYJ eiVCLt on OEV AenouPY'la 0 a~a8E
ponol'lTtKOS ll'lxaVtallos, J.lE anO~EAaJ.lU nOAAES xWPS va civat UaAWTES ans lle~apoAES
A.A.
Av,~ouAcho<;
35
'row E7nTOKiwV TWV H.TI.A .. 01 H.TI.A. Eixuv UTCOcrKA.tcrl TO H.B. ws KtvtpO TOU 016vouS
OlKOVO)llKOU crUcruli)lUTOS'
:EUYKEKPl.)ltVU, TCOMES XWPS dxav OUlPKli A.A.t)l)lam <ITO UJO~UYlO TPXOUcrwv cru
VuA.A.aywv, uv6.)lEcr6. TOUS Kat TO H.B., m OTCOia XP1WUTOOOTOUcrUV )l lcrPOES K<PUA.UtWV
UTCO TU; H.TI.A.. BUTCeT, TCEPU UTCO TU; KOlVWV1KES cruv6liKES, 0 TCOA.e)lOS eiX UUriSEl KUl
TU; OUCOVO)llKtS: 01 EupwTCulKES XWP S dxuv xacrEl Tllv uvmywvtcrnKli TOUS 6Ecrll crTO
SWTEP1KO, UTCO TU; H.TI.A. crTO ounKo ll)ltcr<pUtplO KUl Djv lUTCwvtu crTllv Acria. M6.A.lcrTU,
01 H.TI.A. UTCO XWPU-XPEWcrDjS TCplV TOV TCOA.e)lO tXE )lETa~A.1l6d cr xwpa-7n<ITwT1i. H O
Neu Y oPKll dX TCapEl Djv TCPWTOKU6EOpia UTCO TO Aovliivo ffi<; ol(tves XPll)laTo01KoVO)l1
KO Kevtpo .
H aUSl1<ll1 TWV A)lEplKaVlKwv 7nTOKlwV TO 1928, crTllV TCPOcrTC6.8lU DjS Fed vu )ll
WcrEl DjV KEPOOcrKOTCia crTll Wall Street, )lEiwcr OpU)lUnKa ns lcrPOtS K<paAuiwv crDjv
Eupw"l1 crTO OUTPO )llcrO TOU tTOUS. M TO A.A.el)l)lU TOU tcro~uyiou TPEXoucrwv vu )lllv
)lTCOPEt vu XPll)lUTooODj8ei, 01 EupwTCulKts XWP ES uvaYK6.crDjKUV va )lCullcrOUV Dj ~liDj<ll1,
TCPOKUA.WVTUS uUSllcrll DjS UVEpyiaS
Tllv KaT6.crm<ll1 XEtpOTEPUcr Kat 11 )lEtwcrll TWV ESUyWYwv TOUS Myw TllS ETCEA.80u
crllS ~a8ias u<pecrWS crTU; H.TI.A .. H ~1O)lllXUV1Kli TCupuywYli )leull611KE KUTa 48% )lEmsU
1929 Kat 1932, EVW 11 UVEpyia uuSli811KE crTO 25 %. Tu UvttcrTOlXU crT01Xiu ycu Tllv f p
)luviu limv 39% KU144%.
01 ETClA.OytS TWV XwpWV limv TCOA.U TCPlOPlcr)ltvS, Ka80n 11 crTu8pa UJon)lia OEV
limv crU)l~uTli )le ETCEKTunKli TCOA.lTlKli ETCKTanKli vO)llcr)lanKli TCoA.mKli 80. TCpOKaA.OucrE
EKpoli TCVOUnKWv K<pUA.uiwv, Myw TWV xa)lllAOTepwv TClTOKlWV . T11v O EKpoli 8u XE1
POTEPCUE KUl 11 TCpOcrooKia "IS u1tOn)llicrEws M yw Tll~ ).!Etc00ECO~ 'tCOV 0uvuAAuy).!un
KcOV mroe).!UtCOv.
KUTa E1PCOVia TllS TUrns, DjV KEPOOO"KOTCia crDj Wall Street dX 'tpo<pooo'tlicrl 11
)liwcrll TOlV A~LP1KUVlKWV ETClTOKlwV 'to 1924, O" )ltU TCPOcrTCU8lU UTCo ~1l8licrEws DjS
TCpocrTCU8EiaS ETCUJ'tpo<Plis TOU H.B . cr'tov Kavova TOU Xpucrou. Aoyw DjS )leullcrWS, E
TCEvomlKa KE<p<lA.aUl uPXUJuv vu ptouv 1tpOS TO H.B. (~UTC'tE <JXEnK6. Djv voDjm 14.3
H :EuVeJiKll Icroouva)lias 'twv Em'toKiww). H TCpoKA1l8eicru UVUTi)lllO"ll 'tllS cr'tEPA.lVUS E
nE'tPE'I' crTO H .B. VU TCtcr'tPE'I'El O"'tov Kuvovu )lE DjV TCpOTCOA.e)llKli lcrO'tl)lia DjS tvuvn
'tou xpucrou.
H OlKOVO)llKli A.oY1Kli, O)lWS, d VUl U)l[),.lKTTj. ETCEtlili TO TCtTCOO n)lwv TOU H.B . limv
cruYKplnK6. U'I'llM'tEpo UTCO TO TWV H.TI.A., cr crXEcrll )le 'to TCpOTCOA.e)lUCO, 11 1tpo 'tou TCO'
UlloU tcron)lia aTCo'tA.OucrE TCpay)lanKli ava'tt)lllcrll DjS cr'tEpA.tVas Kal a1tWA.EUl avmYWV1
cruKoDj'tas 'twv 1tpo16vtWV 'tou H.B .. H )lEiwcrll DjS ~11T1icrEWS yta m TCpo'i ovta DjS xwpas
1tPOKUA.ecrE aUs11crll DjS aVEpyias Kat EKpoli xpuO"ou. H 'tEA.emaia av6.YKacrE 'tllv Tp6.TCE~a
'tllS AyyA.iaS va auslicrn m ETClTOKt&. DjS ATCOTEA.W)la limv TCPUlTEPW avooos DjS avp
yias
Vuh,.. YlJ
1931-1939. Exovms va TClAEs l ava)lwa crE OUO KaKa, DjV U'l'l1A.li avpyia av TCUPE)le
V crTO crucrDj)la Kal Djv u1tOTi)lll<ll1 av 'to EYKa'tEA.etTC, 'to H.B. EnEA.eS TO OEU'tEPO TOV
:Emt)l~plO 193 I. H UJTOpia E1tavaA.li<p811KE )lE'tD. aTCo 60 TCEpiTCOU Xp6VUl, )le DjV EiO"ooo
DjS crTEpA.lVas crtOV Mllxavtcr)lo :EuvaMaY)lUnKWV Icrou)lullV TO 1990 )l uTCpn)lll).!EVl]
lcron)lia, Kal'tllV ~ialll Eso06 'tllS 'tOY:ETC'tE)l~plO 1992 (~A.ETCTE crXEnKD. 'to Ev8eTO 16 .3).
'Ev6no 13.8. H K ia TI] l:TE "iva
TOV l:nTTt
101931
M TrW EK TWV UOTt pwv YVWO'l , 11 t~o6o<; TOU H.B. mr6 TOV KavovO)) ~Tav et ~o Xpovou KOI ~aA'\ov
TTpo6toYEVPOIJIJvr) OTTO TO 1925. orav TO H.B. rnav~Aet OlOV Kav6vm> !-IE TrW TTPOTTOA.q.lIK~ IOOTl
_ !-lia VOVTI TOU xpucrou.
Eu8u<; e~ apx~<; , ~ Tpam<a T~<; AYYAia<; aVTI~eTl;lTTIOe TTpo~A~~a ~e T~V eKpo~ Xpuoou Kal
T~V ouvaKoAou8~ aTTwAla ouvaMoy~aTlKWV aTT08e~aTwv . ria T~ OlaT~p~O~ T~<; UlT(PTi~~~EV~<;
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wSd aTO Y, TOU emmoou TOU 1929.
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OTEVD KUKAO, anw olKia TaU, Of lJoal-.Il:00VUKTI<; wp<;, WOT KavEic;: va IJr")V UTTOTTTu8i Tr) ox15la
(O~EV~ UTToTi~~a~ (aEA. 265). H TAIK~ aTTotpaa~ EA~tpe~ aTO AEVO~ EVO MIKPO YTTOUPVIKO Lu~~00- AID, oro oTToio lJolxav 0 TTpw8uTTOUpy6<; Kal Tt OOfPI<; Kopucpaiol uTToupyoi lJTa~U TWV oTToiwv KOI
o K. MapKE~iv~C; (aEA. 269).
ETTlTTAOV , avaKoIVWe~KE MEvaA~ nt~TTT~, 9 ATTPIAiou 1953, ETTIO~ 01 mO~EvEC; TTtvT ~~tPEC;
~TOV apviEC;. "ETaI. OEV XPEla(orav va KMiaEi TO x p~~aTlOT~pIO Via TOV tpollo a~taou KEpOOaKOTTlK~C;
aVTlOpaaEwc;.
'Hrav ~ia TTOAU mlTum~tv~ UTToTi~~a~ . Mia tVOEl~~ EivOi OTi ~ laoTl~ia TWV 30 6pax~wv ava
ooAdPlo 61~PKWi Via mplaaoTpo aTTo 30 XPovla. ~tXPI TOV MapTio 1975, TTapa TIC; mpITTETlWOElC;
TTOAITIKtC; E~EAi~ElC; aT~ xwpa KOI TIC; bUaKoAEC; E~EAi~lC; aT~ olev~ oIKovo~ia.
A.A.
AVT~ouMTOC;
41
OIKaV
Mia aAA~ tvoEI~~ aTToTEAEi TO KaTw81 aTTO(maa~a aTTo TOV tVKUPO OlKOVOJilK6 Taxuop6Jio:
Av TrOPE1 KOVEiC; ~[p orroorao'l OTTO TO rrpdYIJOTO, TI IVai, TI OTTOTEAEi '1 UTTOTilJ'lotl lOU 1953; riOT!
aUVEXWC; ETTOVEPXETOI orrlv ETTlKOIPOTrJTO ; rlOTi 6Aol Trw 8U~OUVTOI ~/KOI H1V ETTlKOAOUVTOI ;
H orrOVTr,Or] EivOI 6TI ETTPOKElTO Yla rrJv TIlO ETTITUXrIlJV'1 Kivrj0'l oro8EpoTTOiflO'l<; (.Iiae; TToAuTOAOI
- VI' aUTO KOI TTptml TTavra va ~V~~ovEUEral 0 POAO<; TOU r . KapTaA~, TTOU
TTpOEToi~aaE TO toa cpo<; ~E 0lap8pwTlKO ~tTpa , TTPoroU ~ aTpocp~ T~<; TTOAITIK~<; 'PtPEI aTO TT~OOAIO
TOV LTT. MapKE<iv~ , 0 OTToio<; tKavE T~V TAIK~ Kiv~arr--, TTOU T~<; TTpoatowaE ~ovaoIK~ avaTTTU~IO
K~ op~~ . MEplKa xpovla OPVOTEPO OTTO T~ UTTOTi~~a~ TOU 1953, ~ EAA~VIK~ olKovo~io t<~aE T~ Xpu
a~ T~<; 15ETio.
YTToTi~~a~ T~<; l\pOX~~<; - 50 XPOVIO METa, OIKOVOJiIK6, TaxuopoJiO" aEA. 71 - 78.
TTWp~~tV~<; oIKovo~ia<;
*** IrU.liT'l<;: ;;;
01 auv8~KE<; UTTO TI<; oTToiE<; oK6~~ KOI a~~Epo E~ETa<ETOI TO EVOEXO WVO ~[TOPOA~<; T~<; ara8Epa<;
laoTl~io<; OVOOEIKvuovral OTTO T~V UTTOTi~~a~ T~<; opOX~~<; TO 1985, orav uTTouPV6<; E8vIK~<; OIKOVO
~ioe; ~rav 0 ~TtTTlTO TTpw8uTTOUPV6<; K. KwvarovTivo<; L~~iT~<; .
TOlODTOTP01tW<;, Ol 01t01E<; J.l.ETCtpOA.e<; UlS laOTlJ.l.las MJ.l.pavav xwpa, auvij6w<; U1tOTlJ.l.Tt

aw;, TtTav aE auv6TtKES KplaEOl<;. Ka6ws CE '1 CmclKaaia EYKPloEOlS a1tO TO t.NT a1teKAEtE
w; 1tPOA.'l1tTlKe<; U1tOTlJ.l.Ttaw; EV UI 1tpoaCoKia 1tpOPA.TUWTWV aTO lCJOi;UylO 1tA.'lPOlJ.l.WV, Ol
01tOtES avaYKau:<; Il1tOTlJ.l.TtOEl<; EMJ.l.pavav xwpa J.I.E J.l.EYUA.' l Ka6IlaTep'la'l dXav J.l.EYaA.UTE
po OIKOVOjllKO KoaTO<; (PU1tETE TIlv 1tPOOOJ.l.oim"'l aTIlv 'PapfLoyTj 2.4 "EUtJ.l.J.l.aTCt TOil
Iaoi;uYlou TpXOllaWV LuvaUaywv -- ITpoaOjlOlwa'l"). Kat EvEixav 1tOA.tnKO KOOTOS ym
w; KUPEPvijoE14.
To npOBAHMA N - 1, LE evav K6ojlo J.I.E N XWP <;, Ol 01toiE<; aKoA.Ou6ouv TCt A.El
TOUpytKU xapaKT'lplCJTlKU TOU' ' Bretton Woods', J.l.ovo N - 1 XWPES J.l.1tOPOUV va xapua
aOUV aVE~UpT'lT'l OtKOVOjllJOj 1tOA.lTtKTj <;. H N-aTTt xwpa, V 1tpOKEljl~ 1tEpurtWOt '1 xw
pall 01toia pplaKoTav aTO KEVTpO TOU O\larTtJ.l.ClTOS, Ol RITA" 6Xt.
-Ev9ETo13,11 , To n 6"
aN - 1
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VIO TTA~pW~WV .
IUYKEKpllJVa , OE tvav KOOjJO IJE N XWpEe;, Ko8E jJia EK TWV oTToiwv tXEI TO OIKO TFle; VOlJlojJa ,
UTTapxouv N - 1 OIO'POPETIKt<; laoTl~i(e;. rio TTapaolv~a, EaV UTTapXOUV ouo XWP(<;, 01 H.n .A. KOI TO
H.B., UTTaPXI ~ovo ~ia laoTl~ia: T~<; Aipo<; tVOVTI TOU ooAopiou . Eov uTTapXI Kai TpiT~ xwpa, ~ 10
TTwvia , UTTapXOUV Duo IOOTllJiEe;: Tfle; Aipae; tvavTI TOU oOAapiou KOI TaU VIV tVOVTI TaU OoAopiou. H
looTljJia Tile; Aipae; VOVTI TaU Vltv TTPOKUTTTEI OTTO TIC; QUO TTpOrWOUlJVEC; (f3AE:TTUE 0XETIKO TO t.v8uo
13.1).
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TTA~pW~WV T~<; N-<JT~<; xwpa<; TTPOKUTTTI OTTO TO lao(uvlO TWV UTTOAOiTTWV N - 1. AAVEPP'KO, W
TOUe; O(iKT<; 1, 2, ... N vo UTTO~~AWVOUV XWPE<;,
BP I + BP1 + ... + BPN. / + BP N
0 :::> BP N = - (BP I + BP] + ... + BP N./
Eav 01 N-l Eixav auvoAIKO TTAEovoa~a , ( BP, + BP, + ... + BP,v-1) > 0, 01 H.n .A. 80 (ixov avavmaTl
Ka tMI~~O , KOI aVTloTp6'Pw<;.
T~ aU~~T~a~ M(iVI ~ TTapOT~p~a~ OTi TO BP ~ioe; xwpa<; ouv04li~I ra aTToTEAto~aTO T~~ 0
KOAou80u~tv~<; OIKOVO~IK~e; TTOAITIK~<; . LUV(Tfw<;, 01 N - I TTpoa610pl~OV T~V TTOAITIK~ T~V oTToio 0
'PlAE va aKoAou8Ei ~ N-aT~ xwpo.
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TO o.KoAou80 oEv6plO, TO oTToio !Jovo cpovTaoTIKo OEV EivOI: npIVpaq>EI TIe; OUV8~K[e; KOTOppEUOEWe;
_ TOU aUaT~I-IOTOe; Bretton - Woods.
'EaTw 6T1 01 H.n.A. , aKOAou8wVTO<; TI<; OIKt<; TOU<; TTpOTpOlOT~T[<; , Ecpop~6~ouv (Tf(KTOTlK~
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a~ TOU lao<uviou TpExouawv auvoMavwv (~AtmTE aXTIKa T~V (V OT~ra 10.3 L(Vapla OIKOVO~IK~~
nOAITIK~e; ) .
on TO IOO(UVIO rpEXOUOWV ouvaiJ..avwv VIVUOI apvr]TIKO. To iOlo KOI TO IOO(UVIO TTAr]

TWV H.nA , Ka80Tl A6VW TWV auvoMoWOTIKWV mplopla~wv BP ~ CA.
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pw~wv
42
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Mia arro TIl) TTITTH.iJOEII) OTlI) UrrOAOITTEI) XWPEI) Eival 11 E~OYWY~ TWV rrAIl8wploTlKWV TTlEOEWV
TWV H.n .A.. Ev oU~TO~ia, ~ mj~~o~ T~C; TTapaywy~c; TWV H.nA oo~y(i O( au~~o~ TWV (~aywywv
TWV uTToAoinwv xwpwv Km tVTOOr] TWV OE aUTtl) TTAr]8wPIOTlKWV TTlt OEWV OTTO Tr]V TTAEUpd Hll) (r]
T~O (WC; . napaOTOTlK(j,
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:=> IMH.n.A. t => X,. . N. I i:=> Y,.... N.I t :=> 1tA.T1eOOpl(JtlKi;~ 1tlt(Jf;l~ t
01 TTA~9wPIOT1K tC; mto1C; OTIC; UTToAolTT(C; N - 1 XWP(C; (vTivOVTOI aTTo T~V au~~o~ T~C; vO~IO~aTlK~C;
KUKAocpopioC; TrIV orroie TTpOKaAEi TO tAAEII..I~a TOU loo(uyiou TPXouowv ouvoAAaywv. napooTOTIKO,
BPH.TT.A.
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Ila mpIo06TPO TK~~PIW~tV~ avdAuo~, ~MmT T~V EVOT~TO 16.3 " MEydA~ Xwpa - LEVap,a OIKO
VO~IK~ C; nOA1T1K~C;".
Edv 01 UTToAOITTEC; XWPEC; OEV EiVaI 0IaT61~tvEc; va OEX90uv aUT~ T~V tvTOO~ TWV TTA~9wPI
OTlKWV TIlEOWV, EXOUV QUO ETTlAoytc;:: No npooop~6aouv TO !..IEiy~o HIe; OIKOVO~IK~<; TToAITIK~<; TOUe;
~E Tpono WaTt va ovmpE80uv 01 OVWTtpW ETTIIDWOEII), 8UOld~oVTOe; o~we; OTIlV TTopEia TOUe; OTO
xoue; HIe; OIKOVO!..lIK~C; Kal KOIVWVIK~<; TOUI) TToAITIK~I) , ~ va EYKowAi4JOUV TO cruoTrHJa.
LTlC; apxtc; TIC; oKaniac; TOU 1970, aVTI~nwTTi~ovTOC; aUT~ T~V ETTIAoy~, ETTtAE~av T~ OEUTp~. Tovi
~OVTQC; , ~dAIOTO , TO aTTp6~AETTTO TWV XP~~OTOOIKOVO~IKWV E~(M~EWV Kal T~V OTV~ oxto~ ~(TO~U
OIKovo!..lial) Kal TToAITIK~I), TIlv anpo8u!..Ifa TWV urroAoirrwv xwpwv va aKoAou8~oouv Trlv 1TKTaTlK~
OIKOVO~IK~ TToAITIK~ TWV H.n.A. EV[OXUE TO on r] TEAi:uwia Ka80pl(6rav EV noMoic; ono TIS avdYKEC;
TaU TToA E~OU OTO BITvcq..l. 'Evav nOAE!..Io OTOV anoia Eixov l..ITTAOKEi 01 H.n .A. ono TIC; apxtc; lrJ<; OE
Konioc; TaU 1960 KOI 0 olToioe; ~TOV avn-Olwo(f.llA~e; 0XI !..IOVO Olav urroAolTTo KOO!..lO oMo Kal OTrJV
iOla T~ xwpa.
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au~I~Unj !lC tU; 1I0A.1nKES twV UlIOA.Oi1ICilV. Kltn to olIoio oev elVat Ku8oA.oU eUKOA.O. 'OlIWS
uvaA.u8'lKe, OtO Keq>ItA.UW t'lS vO!lla!lUnKits 1I0A.mKits, 01 KevtP1KES tpltlIei;eS emolcOKOuV
1I0UOUS UvtlKPOUOWvouS atoXOUS !le VU !lOVO oPYUVO1I0A.ltlKitS Ei; uvItYK11S, OEV !l"0
pouv VU emtuxouv OA.oUS TOUS atoxOUS, 8EtOUV lIPOtepatoUJteS KUl Suatlti;ouv KltlIOLOUS
atoxOUS aUJv emtEu~TJ twV lIpotePUlOnjtwV UutcOv.
H eyyevits uunj OUaKOA.ia aTIlv It<YKT\aTJ UJS VO!lla!lUnKits 1IOA.ltlKitS, '1 o1[oiu laxUe1
yta OA.eS tU; XcOpeS, l\tUV 1IOA.U !leYUA.ut ep'l yID. UJV N-anj XcOpu: Oepuv twV OIKcOV UJS u
vtlKpOUO!tEvwv atoxwv Oq>elAc vu A.a!l~ItVel UlI' O'!'IV Kat tOUS atOXOus twV ulIOA.ollIWV
xwpcOv.
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Wta1[OA.c!lIK1\S lIePlOOOU, ta OlIoia xUpUKTllPii;ovtav UlIO tuXeiu uvltlItU~TJ, u,!,TJA.l\ UlIU
axoA.TJaTJ KUl XU!lTJA.O 1IA.TJ8wpla!lO, 01 lIPOtepatOUJteS UJS OIKOVO!lIKitS 1I0A.ltlKits twV 01
uq>opWV xwpcOv l\taV lIUp0!lOlt:S. Os EK toUtOU, OeV ouaXEPUlVotUV TJ ltaK11aTJ UJS OIKOVO
!lIKitS 1I0A.ltLKits twV Rn.A.: To OpO~A.TJ!lU N - I oev EiXe yiVel1[pO~A.TJ!lU UKO!lTJ .
To npOBAHMA THr AIE0NOVr PEVHOTHTAL 'Htav tvu lIpO~A.TJ!lU uvaA.0Yo !lC TI1V 01
U8Wl!lotTJtU xpuaou atov KCtvovu tOU Xpuaou: H Ctu~'laTJ UJS vO!lta!lunKits KUKAO
q>opiuS ans N - I XcOpeS auVt:1IuyotaV !lciwcrTJ TIIS vO!lla!lCtnKits KUKAOq>OpiaS ans
RO.A ..
L:UyKEKPl!tEVU, ym UJv uU~TJaTJ UJS vO!lta!lunKits KUKAoq>oplas atu; N-I XcOpeS u
lIUlteito CtU~TJaTJ twV auvuUuY!lCttLKcOV tOUs U1[08E!llttwv (~A.lIEtE tOY laoAOYla!lO UJS
KevtPlKitS tpUlIEi;TJS aUJv EVOUJtU 15.2 "E~WtePlKit AVlaOppolIiu - Auto!lutoS L:tu8epo
1I0lTJnKOS MTJxuvta!l0S"). TIpoS tOu~o UlIatt;:ito 1[A.covua!lu ato auVOA.lKO laoi;uylO lIA.TJ
pW!lcOV taus To UVtiatOlXO EAA.cl!l!lU twV Rn.A. 8u lIPOKUA.OUae auppiKVWaTJ UJS VO!lI
a!lunK1\s KUKAOq>Op[US Kat UVtl1IA.TJ8wplanKEs auv81\Kes aUJv 1It:pi1ItwcrTJ 1I0U 01 H.TI.A.
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To lIpO~A.TJ!lU UutO t:1IlAu8'lKE EV!tEPEl W UJV e1[lAoyJ\ m auvuwY!lUtLKIt CtlI09t !lu
" ta va ;:ivUl ae O!lOA.oyu tOU A!lCPlKUVlKOU oTJ!loaiou. NUL !lCv TJ UU~TJaTJ UJS 0lt:9vouS
PWOtOt'ltCtS OCV ulIUltOUaE !lCiwaTJ UJS VO!lta!lUtLKits KUKAOq>OpiaS, uUIt 01 RTI.A. , q>u
atKcO tw Myw, OCV l\tuv 0IUtEgel~VES VU !lolplti;ouv tetOla xpEoypUq>U owpeltv. EmlIA.
OV, UlIl\PXE Kat to 'i'.iA.TJ!l!lU tOU Tpiq>q>lV, lIepi tOU o1[oiou yiVetUl A.OyOS KUtwtepw.
AlIltvtTJaTJ ato "pO~A.TJ!lU TIIS OlE9vouS pwatoUJtas l\mv TJ OTJ!lIOUpyia 1tA.A.WV !l0P
q>cOV auvUWY!lUnKcOV UlI08e!llttwv: twV Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) tou L'.NT. To
SDR ;:[vat EVU aUV8etLKO vO~la!lU to OlIoia UlIltPXel !lOVO ae A.oytatl.lCJ\ !lOpq>l\ !lov~, Os
43
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30<)0'(31OlL1J 1\3g
i l l 11l1\
,l\ldldl)d.L (lOl1Jririlt"()V , 01 'lto'(l~ i,t>IlriOI\O)110 I\noX? '(l"("(ll l\u,JdOAll
1\(T)1 )'(ldodlld3lLrino )ltJLOd19lgt llriD3"(? '0lLll 11l1$3 1\3g )3IogDodlL )?)lllltIOlLOd3SlllDOlLll

10119 1\0?,,(lLllL3 )1lli\0J!1\0111l)l 'l\c;Jl)lOg DodlL 1$1)1 0,,(9d 1\011'('('lL 11l)l )nli\O\l""'13gnI\Y
'll)31L'(ldl D)ri OlLll )(101 'n30?Slllll)l 'n11Jl\odX91(llll 1\(\0d<)00lLll )31?SDlll)l
10 10'(9 1\1l19 131$1l8ri(lO )O)OlLO 0 \,Ol(lll )OAO,,(,(,l\ll ')9)111\1llL )01\3rf\,01ll838llL3-01(11J )3SUA
-d(lOlriUglll\ )Ol$\gl\I 3Xdl,tu(l 'pad
III 9lLll 90(ldX 30 )lll '(lwri?eOlL1J
Dl13~mllli\1J 1J1\ 30
-<)Od13XllL3 1J)31L'('dl i,t>Ildli\3)1 1ll0lL'(l)l 1\'(l3 'I\OnlLllL3. 'lll1Jri?SOlLll '(l)lllldu"(og 1\(\0\,3d(l)OD(\!)

UI\ 1\u,J)3lLlldl 1\c;J)lldli\3)1 1\(1)1 ll)rinsodlL U lll)l 1\1l19i\C0l3ri llS 'llriD3"(?lOlLll )U '\,oD(ldX nOl
lli\lll\? (lO)dll"(og n Ol )(T)3D?XD )i,t>Ill)l1Y'('(llli\ll )lll ltDltdi,tllllg ltlo lti\,)DOlDllLri3 I\ltllDl?
)1lli\0\,3riOI\OlLn
'096 T 01
lt8?1\(\!) O)OlLO 01 11'(')1 -
ll)~ll I\ltl 30')0I\d3lL3~ 1JS 1\(I)30i,tl11llLll 1\(T)1 D)~ll
V'U ' H 1\(T)1 <)oDndX 1\(T)1'(lri3S0lLll 1\(1)1
It I,triA-110 1lI0lL'(l)l 119 1ll1$3 )OA9'( 0
'l,ti\lrillgltri I\llll,t (101 )'!'30I,tri11llI\1l Dl1ll91\1J{jllL It 'S POOM uopa1S

)Olllril,tlD(I:i (101 (T)A9'( ' u,J1\3 ' <)ODo.dX (101 lli\1JI\? (lO)dll"(og (101 )(I)3Dl,trillOlL(I Dllt191\1lSIlL
3Xdl,tuA :1JriiJX)OlD Od(lOA)D 1\9g3XD 1\1l11,t no)d1l"(og (101 ltOlt,,(u,JlL It (lOlL9 )3)1l,tel\nO )(lOlL9)1D
-Ogd3)1 )(101 1ll,( 1\1lD')OAdnOlriltg 'y'U'H 1\(T)1 lll\lll\? l\u,Jd(l)X l\(I)lL)O,,(OlL(I 1\(1)1 'n3Di,tlllllLll
'1\(T)1'(lri3S0lLll 1\u,J)lllllriA1l"(,,(lll\(\!) I,tdldori ltl 9lL(I ')31\?ri(l3d(T)00(\!) \0 ' 1l1\?rild)l3)1A(I:i
'lt~'(ldlL I\lllo )3101l\1ldlri3 1\1dlL
<),,(OlL -
-.1a
Lv61
01 9lLll 30(T)M;ng 01 )O)OlLO 0 (lOA9,(oriOI\O)l10 nOA"(?S nOl I\ld'(lX
s, Ulj]iJl ,)
'(pwwa/
,1\1dldl)d.L nOl )omriril,t"(lV, )(1) <)OlD(T)M (101 '130c;JllLld3lL lti\?riI3)10dlL 1\3.
'O"("('(l 010lL'(')I )3Ad(lOlriltg )omril,t,(80dlL )91\3 ltllllLu,J13rilli\1l H :'n30\,'( )3"(0)1')3 "'(lOXd'(llLn

1\3g ')(I)ri9 'ori D9)1 013SI\\,D I\ll",? 3:i '(.VWW3lla S,NI~~I~.1,) NIld.1 .101 VWWHVIV 0.1
''''<9,,((1 1\(T)1
-<9dlL 1\(T)1 l\<!Jrfll "'(1)1\;ni01\1l~(l1J 1\(T)1 (T)A9,,( )(I))riDO)IJ.lllL 'n30?\lL )?)lllmd(T)slt,,(lL )3i\3ri91\13li\
-3 3rf 1\0,,(,,(,(,8Id3lL ll,,? 30 '1l1111"('(lri lll)f ')CQ)riDO)IJ.lllL 1l11119lDn3d llDnO,,(,,(,(,8d3lLn 1\0000"('(lri
3Xdl,tun "Y'U'H ",(1)1 l\u,Jri(T)dlt"(lL (lO)A(I)Olll (101 1\(T)1'(lliril3"("(3 1\(1)I\;nin3d(1)00(lO 1\(1)1 (1)0"(
'nOlL ogo)d31L 30 3S,(1,t )1l1lt19lD(l3d )<)O"'S31g )lllltolt~(lll 1\c;J1nll (T)O?ri H ''('Adll (l,,(OlL 3S,(1,t
1\(T)30(l31llriAlldlLllIg ll1l\9dX 31,,?lL 9lLll lld3190111d3lL 9lLll '('13rf
'696 1 0) 1:!OS
(101 I,tA(I)AllDl3
It '(101 0)"(818 ,,?Sd3dllll\1l0dlL 010 Oll ',,(3D 3131Ln8 'uaa.6Jua4~1:r 0 )3dltl1JdlllL )(T)lLo.
'l\(I)l'(lrilllriOI\ {(IS'(l"(ll)l lll\? ltD'(l8 3rf 11l13))d
-0 (lOlll)rillom
'(lOl )o'(9d 0 11l)l ~'(ll\ll It 3)11110)d01d 3lL
L61
01 ,spoOM Uopa1S , (101
ltD(l3dd'(l11l)l I\lll 3W ') ? All,,(,,(lll\(\!) )?)lldolLri3 lllA )3SltlOlLOriHlltdX lll\ )3dolLli 1\3g ' (101,)01)13
om"(~dl3)I - lO]riol\oxlOoaXlOW llOX )?aOAlOllOri ltaX ')13o~l\a390)I
Ta Ev8E10 4.9 "XpYj~aToolKOVO~l1oi A7tEA.WSEpUlcrTj - OUOEV KaAOv A~lYES KaKOU",

KaSws Kal tYjv EVOtYjm 17.3 "nEp( tUlV LuvaUay~nKwv nEplOplO~V").
L10V avt(7tooa, ota8Ep07t01YjnKij E7tWpacrTj ELXE '1 EICtEvtiS ouvEpyaClUx ~ta<;u tUlV
KEVtP1KWV tpa7tEt;wv. LE avt(SEcrTj ~ tYjv 7tp(ooo TaU Kavova TaU XpUClOU, 11 ClUVEP
yao(a A6.~~avE xwpa OE mKTI] ~6.ClYj Kat OXl ~OVO OE 7tEP1000US Kp(OEUlV.
EvoE1KnKij TaU ~YESOUS tllS CluvEpyaaUxS ELVal Yj 011~lOupy(a to 1961 TOU E7tOVO~a
t;o~vou Gold Pool, ClE ~Ux 7tpoo1tliSEla tUlV KEvtplKWV tpa7tEt;wv EWEa ~1O~YjXaV1KWV
XUlpWV va ~oYjSlioouv va ~nUlSEl Yj 7t1ClYj yw. U7tOT(~YjOYj t OU oOAap(ou Evavtl TaU Xpuoou.
npoS tOUtO ou~qJwVYjoav va ~YjV ~EmtpE7tOUV m oOAapulKIi a7toSE~t(i tOUS OE Xpuoo
Kal, E7tl7tAEOV, va 7tOUAOUV otYjV EAUSEPYj ayop6. xpuoo a7tO to. a7tOSE~at6. tOUS ME Ta
OEUtEPO, au~avav tYjv 7tpOClqJOp6. TaU xpuoou Kal ~Eio)Vo.v tYjv 7tpOS U7tOT4l11ClYj TaU OOAo.
piou 7t1ClYj. 01 ClU~~tEXOUClES XWPES limv BEAY10, ro.UUx, 6unKij rEp~aviu, EA~Etio.,
H.B., H .n.A., ho.AUx, AOU~E~~OUPYO Kat OAAo.VOUx.
Ko.~Ux ClUVEPYo.oio., O~UlS, OEV 80. ~7tOpOUClE va a7tOtpE1jIEl to aVa7toqJEUKtO, Ko.l oYj
otav 01 H.n.A. OEV limv OtatESE1~EvES va avtl~EtUl7tioouv tYjV plt;a tOU KaKOU: tYjV U7tEP
~OAtK6. E7tElCto.nKij OYj~O(:nOVO~lKij Kat vo~w~anKij 1I0AtttKij tOUS. 01 OU~~EtEXOUOES
XWPES 7tpOOOEUnKa yivovmv A1YOtEPO OUltESE1~VES va 7tUlAOUV xpuoo Kat ~aAWto. Oto.v
E~~ClUlS EtCll U7toClTliplt;av TOY 1I0AE~0 tOU BlETVa~. To Gold Pool Clta~atYjClE tYjV 6.vOtSYj
TOU 1968 omv Yj raUUx, aVTi va E7tEVOUOEl OE o.~l6ypo.qJo. tOU A~plKo.V1KOU 011~oolou
m ooAapw. ta 07tOUx KEpOlt;E 0.110 to E ~7tOplKO tYjS 7tAOVaO~o., 6.PXlOE va E7tlmpEqJEl CltU;
H.n.A. Ko.l va m ~EtatpE7tEl ClE xpuoo.
'lClUlS Yj ~oVYj AUClYj va lito.v Yj u7totl~YjcrTj tOU ooAapiou. Kal 01 KEPOOClK07tOt, 07tUlS
Kat at aAAOl EVYj~pUl~Vat atKOVO~lKOl7tapayOvtES, Ta yvwptl;o.v.
AvaKEqJo.A0.1WVOVtas, to Z:uCltYj~a Bretton Woods EqJap~OCltYjKE ons XPUClES>' ~Eta t OY
B' naYKoo~lO nOAE~O oEKaET1S tYjS avaouYKpmlioEUlS, ~E xapaKtYjplClnKa tYjV taxEla

aVa7tTU~Yj, tYjV xa~YjAli aVEpyUx, tYj CltaSEpOtYjta TUlV n~wv . KalIolOl avaAUtEs motwvouv
TYj ouvaUay~anKij OtaSEpOtYjta ylJ). tYj oYj~lOupyla tUlV ~atpEnKffiv aUtffiv Cluv8YjKffiv.
AUOl t ovlt;ouv on Yj av6.mu~Yj ouvE~aAA otYj ClUVaAAo.y~anKij CltaSEpotYjta, 011~lOUP
YWVTas olE8vffiS tU; KatUUYjAES K01VUlV1KEs Kat 7tOAtttKES ouv8liKES 01 07t01S litav a7ta
paitl]tES yta auTI]v.
AvayvUlplt;ovms 7tAEOV on Kal t o ClUOtYj~a ouvaUay~anKwv lOOn~tcDV Elval .EVOO
YEvtiS ~Eta~AYjtli, Kamvoou~ on Yj aAli8Eta Elvat Ka7tOU CltYj ~crTj. To tovtz;n Kal t o on
ClTYjV ouvaAAay~anKij aOTa8Ela tUlV 7tpffitUlV XPOVUlV alIo tYjv KatappwClYj TOU ' Bretton
Woods' CluvE~aAAav ta ~EylOta Yj YEV1KEU~EVYj ~aKp oo lKOVO~tKl] aCltu8na Yj 07tOUx aKO
Aou8YjOE tYjV 7tpffitYj 7tEtpEAa'(Kij KploYj. Z:Yj~avtlKO xapaKtYjplCluKo tllS litav a maOl~O
7tAYj8UlP10~OS (~AElIEtE ClXH1Ka tU; EVOtlltES 3.2 "H Avooos Kat IhffiClYj taU n A118UlPl
Cl~OU" Kal 6.1 " ElClaYUlyli" ).
KUlJalVOIJEVEC; laOTllJiEC;, 1971 - napov.

LtYjV apxi] tYjS oEKaHUxS TOU 1970 to ((npO~AYj~a N-i)) Kal to ((MUYj~a tOU T plqJqJlV))
litaV l'JoYj 7tOAU o~u~va, EVW Yj oui8EClYj OlESVOUS CluvEpyaoUxS Yla Otl'JptSYj tOU OOAaplou
~ElUl~tVYj. E7tl7tAEOV, Yj mxutatYj avamu~Yj tUlV olE8vffiv xpYj~atayopffiv, Kal m E~ au-tffiv
OlJ).SE(ll~a OE KEPOOClKOlIOUS KEqJuAalJ). KaS.loTOuoav tOus ouvaAAay ~anKous lIEplOpl
Cl~OUS avalIOtEAO~anKOus: AqJo.tpouoav alIo tU; ApXtS to lIEP18ffiplO xpOVOU Kal tYj OU
vatotYjta avtl.j1EtUllIlClEUlS tUlV OlIOlUlV otatapaxffiv li mEOEUlV otU; ClmSEpES lClon~1s.
Ev oAlyoU;, 01 a7tOmaSEp07t01YjtlKOi n:apayoVtES l'Jtav OE lIAlipYj wxU Kal to ava7tO
. ~ qJEUICtO tEAoS tOU ClUClTI]~atOS opato. To OE tEAEUtaio EVE8uPPUVE toUS KEPOOOK07tOUS va
E7tltiSEVtal OE vo~io~am tUlV olIolUlV tU; lClon~1S 8EUlpouClav ms ~Yj OtaTYjPl'JOl~ S.
Ev lIEpiAl'J1jIEI, lIpOS TO tEAOS tYjS oEKanUxS tOU 1960, at H.n.A. Elxav ElIElCtattKl]
vO~lo~anKi] Kal OYj~OOlOVO~IKi] 1I0AtttKij. H OEUtEPYj, EKtOS tUlV aUUlv, l'JtaV o.lIOtEA
o~a tUlv K01VUlVlKWV lIpoypa~~UtUlV Yla tYjV KatalIOAE~YjOYj tYjS qJtffiXElilS Ka8ffis Ko.l tOU
1I0At~OU tOU BlETVa~.
A.A.
AVT~oUA(XTOC;
45
ern
Ki.
VI X
TTO)
val K
01
KEC; \.IV J )
"
A1!Q1;EM:O)lCt TOU iJEiy)laTO<; TT\<; OtKOVO)lUCT)<; 1!OAmKTj<; T)TCtv Ot 1!AT\SCilptoTtKE<; 1!tE

aEt<;. OnCil<; TEK)lT\ptcDVE1Ot <no am)lCt 3.2, 0 1!AT\SCilpta)lo<; TCilV H.TI.A. EiXE s enEpaaEt (Ht<;
apXE<; TT\<; oEKaETiCt<; TOU 1970 TO 6%, a1!o 2,3% Kata )lE00 opo OTI1 Ot<iPKEtCt TTl<; npoT\
you )lEVT\<; DE KCtETia<;.
MT\ CtnOoEX0)lVE<; TI1V EsaYCilyT) TCilV nAT\SCilptaTtKcDV mOECilv Ct1!O u<; H.TI.A., Ot U
nOAOtnE<; XcDpE<;, iJE npoEsapxOUoCt tTl f Ep )lCtVlCt, CtKOAOUST\OCtV OUatCtAuKTj VO)ltO)lCtuKTj
nOAtnKTj. O)lCil<;, 10 1!p01cU",aVTCt U",T\AOTPCt EnttOK1.Ct TT\<; fEP)lCtVla<; evCtVTt To)V 1rtTOI
CilV TCilV H.TI.A. oT\)lWUPYOUoCtv 1ri0T\ U1!On)lT)oECil<; TOU oOMpiou, AOyCil CtUST\)lEVT\<; !;11'T)
OECil <; yID. )lUPK(l (pUnEtE TO E1!OiJEVO KE<paAaw).
EntnUov, T\ 1rWElVCilaT\ TOU EAM:i)l)lCtTO<; TOU too!;uyiou tpEXOuacDv ouvaUaycDv t CilV
H.TI.A. TO 1971 evEtEtVE tt<; npOOOOKlE<; yID. U1!Otl)lT\OT\ tOU ooMplou. :l:UYKEKpt)lEVCt, 0
ouvoUCtO)lo<; OtCtSEPwV oVO)laOnKwv toon)luiJv iJE TOV U",T\AOTEPO nA11SCil ptO)lO tCilV
H .TI.A. 1!pOKaM:OE 1!pCtY)lCtnKTj CtVCtti)l110"T\ TOU ooA<:tpiou Kat )lElCilOT\ TT\<; avtaYCilVtouKO
tT\ta<; TCilV AiJEptKCtVlKcDv npo\6vTCilV.
H KCttappEUOT\ T)1OV taxutatT\. K(ltaAutT\ TCilV ESEAiE,ECilV Ct1!OttM:OCtV ouo Ctno<paoEt<;
tOU totE npotopou TCilV H.TI.A., Richard N ixon, OTt<; 15 AuyouOTou 1971: Y1!OTl)lT\OT\ tT\<;
1riaT\)lT\<; toon)lICt<; tOU ooA<:tpiou Ctno $35 ava ouyyta xpuoou aE $42, Kat KatapYT\OT\ TTl<;
OUVCttOTT\1O<; CtvtaUayTj<; xpUOOU )lE OOAapID. ano tTl Fed iJE TT\V EnlOT\)lT\ taon)lla. Ot ou
vaAAaY)laTtKES taon)llE<; apXtoCtv va KU)lalvovtat, mSw<; Ot KEvtPtKt<; Tpa1!e!;E<; a<pT\o(lv
Tt<; a yopE<; va ppouv vtE<; toon)llES toOPPOltiac;, Ott<; OltOlES 11ltpoo<popa KCtt T\ !;T)TT\O"T\ Sa
T)t(lV 10ES
'Ev8ETO 13.12.
VITa
' O,KOVO IKO DNA' TWV E9vwv;
<l>alvETOI uTTEppoAIKO, aAM ~ OIKOVO~IK~ laTopla TTaptXEI EV~Ei~EI<; OTi UTf(jPXEI KOTToia KA~poVO~IKO
ava'Aovo TOU DNA TWV <WVTWV opyaVIG\.H.iJV.

I~ou KOTTOIEe; Ev~Ei~EI<;. To 1925, TO H .B. mav~AeE aTOV Kavova TOU Xpuaou ~E UTTEPTl~~
~tv~ laoTl~ia tvaVTI TOU Xpuoou , Via AOvoue; a~loTTIoTiae; T~e; xwpae;. To 1931, aVTl~ETwTTi~oVTOe; T~V
mlAov~ ~ETO~U EOWTEpIK~e; laoppoTTiae; Kal ~laT~p~aEwe; T~e; looTI~iae; , TTpOTi~~a, TO TTPWTO, acp~
VOVTOe; T~V aTE pAiva va UTTOTl~~e,i. E~~VTO TTEpiTTOU XPovla apVOTEpa, ~ laTOpia mavaA~cpe~KE : To
H.B. "o~Ae, aTOV EupwTTa'iKo M~xavlo~o auvaAAav~aTlKWV laoTl~lwv (pAmn, T~V mo~,v~ 'vo
T~TO) ~E UTTEPTl~~~tv~ 100Tl~ia , Via AOvoue; EeVIKOU VO~TpOU . To 1992, aVTI~ETwlTi~oVTOe; TTapo~olo
~iA~~~a ~,auTo TOU 1931 , aKoAoue~aE T~V i~la mlAov~ (PAtTTETE TO tveETO 16.3).
01 H.n.A., aVTI~ETwlTi~oVTOe; TO ~iA~~~a ~ETO~U WWTEpIK~e; laoppoTTiae; KOI ~IOT~p~OEWe; T~e;
IOOTllJia<; [vavlI TOU xpuaou , TO 1932 ETTO. (~aV TO npwTo, a<p~VOVTac; TO Oo'AdpiO va UTTO-':I~'lei.
LopcivTO TTEpinou XPOVIQ apyoTpa, aVTl~ETw1Ti~ovTac; lTOPOI-iOIO t5iArU.JiJo , QKOAOu8'loav lllv iolO E
TTlAoV~ , TTapa T~ ~EVaA~ aPEpOloT~TO TTOU OUT~ ea Q~~IOUPVOUcrE OTIe; ~"evEie; OIKOVO~IKte; axtaEle;.
H laAAia, ~E T~V ETTI~OV~ T~e; va ouaaWpEUEI Xpuoo aTO ~EUT'PO ~Iao T~e; QEKaETiae; TOU 1920,
6~uv TO TTp6~Ar1lJa Trl<; ol8vouC; KaTOvOI..I~C; TOU TTPIOPIOI.lEVOU VOIJ10I.lCTIKOU Xpuoou KOI VETIV
Tie; EVTaaEle; OTO ~"evte; vO~la~aTIKo auaT~~a . E~~VTO XPovla apvoHpa, OTOV ~ laMia UTTO TOV de
Gaulle OUOIOOTIKO YKOTEM:l4J TO Gold Pool KOI aPXIO va ovraA.A.oo1 TO rloAd:plQ TO oTToio KEprll~
OTTO TO '~TTOPIO ~E Tie; H .n .A . ~E xpuao OTTO T~ Fed, lTpoKaA(oE TO TtAoe; TOU Gold Pool, aQuvOTi~o
VTOe; T~ ~"ev~ auvEPvaaia ~ oTToia aT~pl~E TO ~OAOPIO KOI a~~OTo~oTWVTO<; T~V apx~ TOU TtAoue;
Via TO LuaT~~a Bretton Woods . To Gold Pool aTO~aT~aE va UlTaPXEI TOV ATTpiAlO 1968.
TrlTO alit; .8VIKtc; OIKOV0I-IIK'C; lTOAITIK.C;,
Ot 1!pOOltaStE<; yta TTlv lttotPO<PT) O crU01T\)lCt OTCt8EPcDV taOtt)luiJv Ctlttp'10CtV aKapn<;.

H POUA110"T\ TO)v Apxwv npOOEKpOUE 010U<; ltpoCtva<pEp8EVtE<; Ct1!OOWSEPOlt01T\ttKOU<; na
paYOvtE<;, Kat O'1T\V 8pa)lCtttKTj ava1!TIlST\ 1CilV OtSvwv xpT\)lCtTayopcDv. H t AEuwiCt, iJE t o
va Kaw0tT)Ot CtVCtnOTJ..eO)lCtttKOU<; t ou<; OUVCtAACtY)lattKou<; 1!tptOptO)lOUS, a<palpouOt
TTl ouva10tT\ta (lOKTjOCil<; autovo)lT\<; VO)ltO)lllttKTjS ltOAmKTj<; iJE OTCt8EPE<; taOtt)llE<;
YltOKU1rTOvtas 010 CtV(llto<pEUKTO, TOV Mapno 1973 01 taon)llE<; tCilV vO)ltO)latCllV
A
tCilV lCUpiwv PtO)lT\XCtVtKcDV XCilpwV acpt 8rjaCtv va lCU)laivovtat EM:u8Epa. Ot loott)li<;, 0
U 8r
. vw<; Ev80yevi<; )lE1OPAT\TES nUov, apXtoCtv Vct )lEta~aAAOvtat )la!;l iJE tt<; OtKOVO)ltKtS
Wood
c
')OUV8T)KtS. Kat )laAtOTCt, ltoM nEptOOOttpo alto aMa SEiJEAuiJ011 OtKOVO)ltKO: )lEYt8T\ . KCt
, K
la ltOOOV T\ iJEWPATITOTIlTa tou<; iVat U1!EpJloAtKTj, OltW<; iVCtt11 E1rtKpCttOUOa ano"'T\, ei
Vat t VCt 9E)lCt OtO onoio Sa E1tavtASOU)lE OTO KEcpaAatO 18. Q<; 1!poyUOT\ ltavtCil<;, ow 01
KOvO)ltKa oev ultapXEt tiltOtE TO Oltoio OEV EST\YEltat iJE 1T\ AOytKTj .
TO
'Hwv tva pT))la OTO ayvCilO1O. Ot 1!tpioo01 iJE iJE1Ct~AT\ltS toOtt)llE<;, KCtta tTl ouip
KetCt lOU iJEOOltoU )lOU, )lE tt<; tUiJEto:PAT\tE<; toon)llES, n<; anOO1OSEpOlt0t11ttKt<; pot<;
46
lOlXsgD,?OlLog :SlSD'!'eOO1v ' SlSDli-OiAl1001011 '101"(,?X:I
S02>p"(no j"V V'V r;;
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"
Ot )J.tKpOTpe; xrope; TlVOUV va npoooEvoUV TCt. vO)J.tO)J.Ct.Ta TOUe; O EVCt. Ct.no 1CI. K1lpt
a, OOAapto ij up6:> ouvij8we;, ij o KaAa6t vO)J.tO)J.atWV, Aoyw autrov, TO oUoT1j)J.a EXt xa
paKTI\ptoti we; 'Bretton Woods II ' ,
EnmAtov, Ot pOEe; ot8vrov 1l!;VOunKrov Kq>aACt.tWV 'XP'1)J.Ct.tOOOTOUV ta EAAl)J.)J.ata
lOU tcro1;uytOU tpXouorov ouvaAAayrov, mtpEnovrae; O )J.ta xropa va txt )J.yaAa Kat no
AUTij Mi)J.)J.a'w, Katt to onoto OtO nCt.pA8ov oV ij1Cl.V q>tKto: Ta f.lyaAa Mtll)J.UTCt.,
av ov avrtf.ltwnU;ovrav, OO'1youoav O OUVaAAaY)J.anKij KPt01l, Ano 111v apVl']ttKij
nAtupa, auto. 1CI. Kq>aAata anoTAouV Eva tcrXUpo KaVaAt )J.EOW tOU onolou OtatapaXEe;
ano 111 ot8vij otKOvo)J.ta Kat tte; Ot8vL; XP'1)J.a1Cl.yopEe; )J.nopouv va 1rTJpaOOUV )J.ia Ot
Kovo)J.la, )J.tKpij ij )J.yaA'1, KCt.t va unov0f.lUoouv t'1v otKOVO)J.tKij nOAmKij t'1e; (~AEnt
OXttKa t'1V VOt'1ta 14,5 "Iao1;uyto Xp'1)J.alOOtKOvO)J.tKrov LuvCt.AAayrov - I1poootoptOtt
KOt I1apayovte;") ,
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H nopia npoe; t'1v EupwnatKij NO)J.tcr)J.attKl] 'Evwo'1, '1 onoia KatEA'1C; 0111v wmywyi]
tOU Dpro Kat to KAlOw)J.a tWV toon)J.tcOv tWV vO)J.to)J.atWV tWV xwproV-)J.AcOV 111e; Evro
owe; tOY Javouapto 1999, iX apxtot nptv ano T1jV Katappu01l tOU 'Bretton Woods'.'
H apm tytV atO LU)J.POUAto Kopuq>ije; t'1e; tOtE EupwnatKije; OtKOVO)J.tKije; Evroowe;
(EOK), to 1969, H aXttKij nP01Cl.0'11lC1.poucrtaOt'1K tOY OKtroP pto 1970 Kat ut06tij6'1
K tOY Maptto 1971. 'Htav to 1lovo)J.U1;of.lVO Werner Report, ano TO ovo)J.a tOU Pierre
Werner, npw8unoupyou tOU AouE,)J.pouPYou onolOe; npoijopD T'1e; auvraKttKije; m
tponije;,
H npopAE'I''1 tOU Werner Report ylC/. o'1)J.toupyia otKOVO)J.tKije; Kat vO)J.ta)J.anKije; vro
OW<; )J.E'XPt to 1980 oV uAonotij8'1K, To aOta8Ee; ot8vtc; otKOVO)J.tKO nptpaUov, to 0
nolo 1ltOlVWa '1 ot8vije; uq>011 f.lta 111V nprot'1 ntpEAa'iKij Kpt01l to 1973, ov ij1Cl.V
UVOtKO yta t'1V npopAEn0f.lVl1 01Cl.OtaKij 0'1)J.toupyta tWV 8cr)J.rov Ot onoi.ot 8a nEtpnav
111V ut08E1110'1 ata8prov toon)J.trov f.ltCt.C;u tWV vO)J.to)J.atwv tWV xwprov-)J.AroV Kat v tE
AH t'1v taaywyi] Voe; KOWOU vO)J.la)J.UtOe; )J.taa O )J.ia OKatia, 6.v ij1Cl.V, ntcr'1e;, uvOt
KO yta tOY anattOUf.lvo auY'Xpovtcr)J.o 111e; otKoVO)J.tKije; nOAmKije;: Y no t'1v nLE01l t'1e; u
'l''1Aije; avpytae;, OAe; Ot xrope; OV iXav t'1v ilila anoq>acrtOttKoT1j1Cl. yta t'1v KatanoAt
)J.'1a'1 tOU nA'18wpta)J.ou,
H npoona8ta, 0)J.We;, Eyw, Eq>ap)J.o1;ovtae; tte; npovote; tOU Werner Report, tyw '1
npro111 npoana8ta a1Cl.8ponotijowe; tWV auvaUaY)J.Ct.ttKrov toon)J.trov tWV Eupwna'iKrov
vO)J.tcr)J.atWV )J. atoxo to upoe; OlC/.KU)J.avoroe; tOUe; va ivat )J.tKpOtpo ano TO avr(aTOtXO
tvaVTI tou OOAaplou, 'E)J.W ot'1 ~tpAtoypa'I'ia )J. TO ovo)J.a 'Snake in the tunnel', M He;
v AOYW taott)J.lc; va f.l1CI.~aUovrat ouyxpovta)J.tva t vavtt tau oOAaplou, '1 ypaq>tKij na
paatamj lOUe; we; npoe; to 'XP0vo t)J.Ota1; f.l q>(Ot (snake). Entoij O unijpx 1;roVl'] OlC/.KU
)J.avowe; EVaVtt tOU OOAaplou, '1 onota OT'1 ypaq>tKij napaataa'1 E)J.ota1; f.l tOUVEA, npo
EKU'I' t o unoKOptottKO,
To ' Snake in the tunnel ' OtijPKO )J.EXpt tOY Maptto tOU 1973, otav Ot Eupwna'iKEe;
xrope; anoq>aotcrav va aq>ijaouv ta vO)J.lo)J.ata lOUe; va KU)J.Uv80uv Au8pa Evavtt tOU
OOAaptOU, 'Etat Ef.lW to 'Snake' )J.ovo, AUa Kat auto iX npmttcOo'1 C;At.C;'1 Ka8roe;
111v npi.ooo 1973 - 1978 unijpE,av nollie; aUayEe; atl<; tcrOtt)J.LEe; f.ltaE,iJ t WVvO)J.ta)J.atWV
tWV au)J.f.ltxouarov xwprov Vro napaU'1Aa Kanote; xrope;, uno 111V nLEa'1 tWV avttKpOU
O)J.Evwv atOXwv 111e; OwtptKije; Kat t'1e; E,WtptKije; taopponiae;, q>uyav Kat navEPXo
vtav OtO aU(111)J.a,
To no)J.vo 0po01l)J.O ijtav '1 0'1)J.toupyia toU EupWnatKOU NO)J.tcr)J.anKou Luatij)J.U
> toe; (European Monetary System - OUvtO~LOypaq>ta EMS) tOY Maptto 1979, LtOXOt ijtav
'1 f.llwa'1 tWV ouvaUaY)J.attKrov OtaKU)J.avawv, '1 f.llWO'1 tOU tOt u'l''1AOU nA'18wpto)J.oU
(pMnt to Om~La 3,1) Kat '1 npotot)J.acria yta t'1V EupwnatKij vO)J.tcr)J.UnKij vonot'10'1.
S rlO )..Lia cruVKHKTt UAAO ~aLPttKit rropoucr(ucrTl IT\':; rropda.:; rrpo<; tr1V ONE, cruvtcrl(l-rat 10 ocU
TEpO K<jlOJ"UlO TOU PlPJ,,(OU International Financial Markets - Prices and Policies (Second Edition)
by Richard Levich, McGraw-Hili Irwin (2001).
AA AVT~OUA<X tOt;
48
""uo 1TIlA-cilVES TOD EMS ijmv TO European Currency Unit (cruvtOllOypU<pia ECU) KUt
cruvt0Jloypu
<pia ERM).
To ECU ijmv EVU KUAn8l}) 1:UlV vOJltOJlaTUlV 1:UlV XUlPWV-JlEA-WV 1:'lS EOK. c,V D
mlPSE OE <pDotKij JlOp<pij, Ku80Tt 1t01:E liEV KUKAo<pOP'louv vOJlloJ1Cl1:u ij KEpJlUm ECU, UA-
An JlOVO OE i..oytOTtKij. M1t0poUOE vu XP'l0tJl01tot'l8ei U1tO tlitWTES Kat E1ttXEtpijOEU; yta
Kam8EOEU; Kat TtJl0A-OyT)OEU;, Kat a1tO KEvtPtKES 1:pa1tE~ES UlS ODVUMUYJlaTtKa an08EJ1CI
M'lxuvt0JlOS ~DVUMUYJlUTtKWV 10O'rlJ.ltWV (Exchange Rate Mechanism -
1:a.
To ERM ij1:UV TO KUplO opyuvo ytU 1:'l lleiUlO'l TUlV ODvUMaYllaTtKWV liUlKUJlaVOE
Ul V. Ot ODIlJlE1:EXODOES XWPES liEOJlEUOvtaV va 1tEptoploouv 1:U; OUlKUJlaVOEU; 1:UlV vOJlt
OJlaTUlV t ODS OE Eva target zone JlE j)aO'l TO ECU. To cUpOS 1:'lS ~WV'lS yupUl ano 1:'lV KE
vtptKij tOOTtllla ijmv yta tU; nEptOOOTEPES XWPES 2,25%. ME E<papIlOyT) TUlV tptYUlvtKWV
tOOTtIltWV(Ev8EtO 13.1), Ot tOOTtJlleS tUlV vOJltOJlatUlV avO. liuo Enio'lS oxmU1ttJ;av ~WV'l'
>1S OU01:'lJ1Cl 01:a8EpWV ODotaOTtKa tOOTtJltWV EVeiXE tODS eyyEVE\<; anoOm8Ep01tOt'l
tUCOUS 1tapayOVtES tUlV np0'lY'l8EvtUlV cru01:'lllaTUlV 01:a8EpWV 100TtJltcilv.
'Evas EntnA.tov anoom8EpOnOt'lTtK6S 1tapaYOvtaS npOEKUIJIE OTljV npaS'l XUlpi<; vu
DnaPXEt OXETtKOS oXEliUlOJlOS: To rEPllavtK6 llaPKO avuoeix8'lKE TO vOlltOlla ava<popaS
t OD cruOtijJ1ClTOS. H Bundesbank, 'l KEvtptKij TpanE1;a 1:'lS rEPJluvias, nupElXE ta 0'llleio
ava<popaS yta T'l VOlltOllcmKij nOA-mKij t UlV D1tOA-OinUlv XUlpcilv.
""ElioJ.tYlls liE TljS anOO1:po<pijs 1:UlV rEPIlUVWV yUl TOY 1t)''leUlptOJlO, Ot DnOA-Ot1tES
XWPES ElC 1:UlV 1tpaYllaTUlV O<pEtA-a V va alCOA-OD8ijooDV T'lV aD01:'lpij avtt-1tA-'leUlptOTtKij
1tOA-mKij t'lS rEpJ1ClVtas. ~DYKEKptllva, E<XV 'l Bundesbank ausavE T(l E1ttt01ClJi "IS yta va
avttJlE1:UlnloEt tU; nA-'l8UlptOTtKE<; ntEOEU; OTlj r EpJla via, Ot DnOA-Ot1tES XWPES o<pEtAaV va
(lDSijooDV T(l Entt01ClJi TODS enlo'lS, npOKEtllvOD vct litaT'lP'leei 'l otCteEpa tOOTtllla VCtVTt
tOD llaPKOD lCat CtvEsap1:ijtUlS EaV ij1:CtV (l1[UPCti-r'lTlj.
DCtpa Tlj IiOJlW011 tUlV crullllETEXODOWV XUlpWV va EVCtPJlOVtOODV 1:11V OtlCOVOJltKij
1tOA-tTtKij tODS, WOtE vct IlEt(()eEt 'l CtvaylC'l CtMayijs 1:UlV KEVtptKWV tOOTtlltWV, 1:tOlS Ctvct
npooapJ.lOYS ijtCtV KUta KCttpOUS CtVCtYKCtleS. T'lV nEplolio 1979 - 1992 A.<lPctV xwpu 12
CtvCtnpooCtpJ.lOyES JlE Tlj cruvCtlvEO'l OA.c.ov 1:UlV XUlPWV-JlEA-WV t'lS EUPUl1tCttKijS EVWOEUlS
'EVOETO 13.13. H rUVO ' K
TOU
OV
Maastricht
~"~CjlWVO ~, T~ ~UVe~K~ TOU Maastricht, 01 XWP'C; 01 oTToi,C; mleU~a"oov va oU~~ETdoxouv. OT~V
urr6 Orll..lIOupyia/ou~~Tr"lcrfl f.l E: MOVTIK~ VOlJlaf.lOTlK~ tvwoll 6q>I,\ov va IKaVOTTOI~aouv TO TTEVT: Af.
YO~'VO KPIT~PIO oUYKilio,wC;:
1. nEp10p101J6C; TWV EAAElfJl"H:h wv TOU rrpouTToAoYl0l-lou OTO 3% IOU AEn

2 . nEpIOpIOI-lO<; IOU aUVOAIKOU E8v1l<OU XPEOUC; OlD 60% TOU
AEn
3, nll~ewplo~6
~IKp6TEPO OTTO TOV ~too opo TWV TPIWV xwpwv~,"wv T~C; Evwo,wC; ~, TOV ~I
KpOTEPO TTII~eWpIO~6 ouv 1,5%
4. AnoOoorJ TWV I-l0KpoXpoviwv OfJoA6ywv lOU Of'II..locriou OE aplc I-lIKpOTEPO aTTO TOV !-lEae 6po
TWV avriorolXwv orroooaEWV rwv rplwv xwPWV ~E rov ~IKp6rEpo TTAtleWpla~6 auv 2%
5. LlIOT~p~O~ T~C; loaTl~ioc; OTO ERM xwpiC; UTTOTi~~o~ Yla ~"O XpOVIO.
AUOT~pd KOI TToII" OTTalT~TlKd YIO TIC; OUVe~K'C; TWV oPxwv T~C; ~ 'KaETiac; TOU
6~WC;, IOXUP~ OIKOVO~IK~ IIoYlK~.
1990
KPIT~PIO. Eixov,
H JlEyaA.UtEP'lllpOKA-'lD'l yta 1:0 EMS, OIlUlS, ijwv Ot lCptOEtS tUlV Et WV 1992 - 1993. ME
ta 1:'lV Ct1tOpptlJl'l1:'lS ~uveijlC'lS TOD Maastricht ano 1:OUS ""ctvoUS 1JI'l<PO<P0PODS TOY 10uvtO
1992, Ot KEpiiooKOnOt aPXtOav va 1tPOOOOKOUV on 'l ~\)v8ijlC'l tOUlS va Jl'lv EntKUpUlvoWV.
Eav 'l EOK EJlEVE JlE 1:0 EMS nEptoOO1:EPES uva1tpOOaplloys TWV KEVTptlCWV tOOTtlltWv
ijwv meCtvEs, tOUlS Kat E1tteUIl'lTES. ME T'lV npooliOKta OTt Ot tOOnllleS eu Jl1tOPOUOUv va
"Ctllisouv, at lCEplioolComKES EmeEOEtS EytVaV 0XEliov OiyoDpa 01:OtxT)JlUW (j)A.tnEtE TO
tv8EtO 16.2 "KEplioOKOntKES EmeeoEU; - ElC 1:OU Ao<pCtA-ouS;").
Tov ~EnTEIlPpto 1992 KEpiioOlComlCES Ent8EOEtS EKo'l A.W8'lKav EVaVtLOV 1:'lS OtEp)..L
vcts, 'l onota EylCCt1:EA.etIJlE t o EMS OtU; 16 LEmEJlPploD, Kat t'lS hOA-tiClis A-tpews, 'l onola
uno"rtij8ljlCE mu; 17 ~EmEJlPplou Kat 01:'l OUVEXEtCt eyJCatEA-EtIJlE to EMS. Ot ntEOEU; cru
VEXt01:'llCa v lCat to EnollEVO EtaS, IlE 8uIlCtW W vOlltollata t'lS raA-A-las, 101tavtas, No p
P'lylac;, Dop1:OyaA-tas Kat ~ou'lliias.
A.A.
AVT~OUACho <;
49
VK
at 1UtOe'4 J.l!:ullEh]KaV OTUV OlupuvEhjKav TU opta TIl, i;wVY\, Oe 15%, Kan TO orroio
rrpaKTtKa tOOOUVElJ.lOUOE J.l!: EYKaTUAEt\jll] TOU EMS Kat Ul09ETIlOl] J.l!:TUPAl]TWV tOOnJlullv.
l1apa TauTU, l] POUAl]crl] yta J.l!:yaAUTepl] OtKOVOJltKTj Evorroil]ol] UmlPXe Kat OOiJYl]OE
0TIlV OtKOVOJltKTj Kat No JlLOJlanlCl; 'EvCOOl] (ONE). Kat UmlPXe arro 1l]V rrpol]YOUJleVY\ Oe
KUnia, OTUV l] U\jIl]AiJ avepyia 0TIlv EupwITl] Kat 0 q>oPo, on Ot Eupuma'(KE, e1UXetpiJoe'4
OEV 9a JlrropOUoav va aVTUYCOVLOTOUV T'4 AJleptKaVtKE<; KCLt T'4ICLrrwvtKE, w9l]Oe TOU, Eu
pcorraiou, l]YETe, VCL e7l:l0ull~OUV errmlxuvol] TIl, OtaOtKCLcria, TIl, EupwrrCL'iK!j, OAOKAl]PW
OeW,. H rrpooooKia iJTav on l] eK TIl, OAoKAl]pWOeCO, EVTU"'1 TaU CLVTUYCOVtcr JlOU 9CL w
90UOe T'4 EupoorrCL"lKE, errtXetpl]Oe'4 VCL yivouv rrEpLOOOTepO CLVTUYOOVLOnKE, eKJlnCLAAEUO
JlEVE<; T'4 OtKOVOJlte, KAiJlCLKCL, KCLt q>UcrJlCLTO, OE ITCLvEUpoorrCL"lKo errirreOo. ErretoiJ, OJlCO"
TmOTE 8EV elVCLt xcopi<; KOcrTO" Jlia CLrro n, erri JlEPOU, rroAlHKE" l] KCLTapYlJOl] TWV ou
vCLUCLYJlanKWv rrepLOptOJlWV, K(Ll l] cruv CLmiJ aU~l]ol] Tl], KtviJOeCO, 81E9vwv erreV8mlKWv
Keq>CLACLicov, 8UOXEpCLLVe TOV moxo JleYCLAUTEPl], OUVCLAAoYJlCLTlKTj, oTagep<Yn]TU,.
To EMS CLVTtKUTUoTa9l]KE CLrr6 TIlV ONE TOV jCLvOUUptO 1999, 6TCLV etoiJX9l] TO EU
pw. LTIlV ONE, TO l1p6PAl]JlCL N - 1 e1UAUEhjKe !te TIlv xupaSl] TIl, VOJltOJlanKTj, rrOAt
TlKl'J, CLrro TIlv EUPooITCLoo; KEVTptKTj Tpurrei;a (EKT), l] orroia AaJlPUVEt urr' O\jlLV T'4 ouv
9iJKe, OE OAeS T'4 XciJPE,-J1EAl]. Xcopi<; aJlq>tpoAia, elVat pehiwOl] Evavn TOU EMS orrou
0TIlV rrpUSl] l] fepJlavtK"ij Bundesbank xapaoe TIl VOJltOJlanK"ij rroAlHK"ij, Jle PUOl] TIl, a
vUYKE, TIl, fePJlavia" Kat Ot UrrOAOtltE, XciJpe, eKOUOeS - UKOUOeS aKoAou90uoav.
To 8e ERM avnKaTUmuEhjKE arro TO ERM II TO orroio AeLToupyd 00, rrp09uA.aJ.lo,
Tl], ONE. 'OAES 01 VEeS XWpe,-JlEAl] TIlS Eupwrra"lK"ij, Evwoeco, rrpErret va OUJlJ.l!:TEXOUV,
eVW arraLTElTCLt VCL elval TaUAUXIOTOV 8uo XPOVtCL OTO ERM 1I rrplv yivouv JlEAl] Tl],
O.N.E..
50
rYNAMArMATlKEI: IWTIMIEL............................................................................................. 1
13.1 ElrArnrH .. .. ... ... .

.... .. ... ... ...... ....... ............................................................... .. 1
13.2 ONOMAHIKH IWTIMIA ....................................................... .... ............................................. 3
13.3 nPArMATIKH IWTIMIA ........................................................................................... ............. 5
13.4 nAHSOPlrMDr KAI METABOAH THr ONOMAHIKHr IWTIMIAL ............ ... .. ... .. .............. 12
13.5 I:vHHMATA I:YNAAAArMATIKoN IWTIMION - I:VNToMH nEPlrPA<!>H ............................ 14
13.6 I:VHHMATA IWTIMION - I:VNToMH IHOPIKH ANA6POMH ............................................. 27
rYNAMArMATIKEI: II:OTIMIEL..................................................................... 1
13.1 EIEArnrH ...................................................... ... ................ .....
................... ................. I
OTO npWTootl-loa TWV New York Times .. . .. 2
13.2 ONOMAHIKH IWTIMIA ............... ........................................................................................ 3
Eq)Qp~oy~ 13.1. MnaTpoTT~ TWV IOOTI~lti.lV ~( T~V ATTI-~ Mt6000 TWV T PI!.0V .
...4
'Ev6no 13.1. TplywvlKts looTl~iES.. .

...............
.. 5
13.3 nPArMATIKH IWTIMIA .................................................................................................... 5
.. 5
m"'1BwpIOlJoS Kal METa\!ohES T'IS AVTaywvlaTlKOT'ITaS...

........ .... ...
.. .. 6
TExvlKo 8t~o 13.1 . LXETlKtS TI~tS .......

E'l'ap~oy~ 13.2. YTTOTi~~o~ Kal AvTOywvlaTlKoT~TO .... ...............
.. .. 6
npaylJaTlK~ laOTllJia. .. .... ...... .. .... ... .. .... ... ....

.. .. .... .....................
.. 7
E'l'ap~oy~ 13.3. IOOTl~iES Kal AVTOYWVIOTIKOT~TO....

...8
AlllEPEiS KOI IToBlJlalJEvES laoTllJiES.. ... ............... ..........

.. ...................... 9
nivaKaS 13.1. Mna~oMs TWV laon~lti.lV KOI Mna~ol-ts T~S AvTOyWVIOTIKOT'ITOS.... . 10
'Ev6no 13.2. laoTl~iES KOI AvTOywvIOTIKOT'ITO.. ..

.. .. .. ........ .... ...... 10
'Eveno 13.3. npaWOTIK~ AVOTi~'1o'l Kal npay~aTlKo ETTITOKIO - Mo Kpu'l'ci KOOT~
T'IS O.N.E.
.... ...........
............ ......
.. .... 11
13.4 nAHSOPlrMDr KAI METABoAEr THr ONOMAHIKHr IrOTIMIAr ................................ ...... 12
E'l'ap~oy~ 13.4. npay~aTlK~ AvaTi~~o'l Kal AVTOywvlanKOT'ITO - npoao~oiwo'l ....... 12
Lx~~a 13.2. nh'l6wplo~oS Kal Mna~oA~ T~S OVO~aOTlK~S loon~ias..

.. .... 13
Lx~~a
13.1. 01 Luval-l-awaTlKts
Lx~~a
13.3. Mna~oM
laoTl~iES
T~S npaWOTIK~S loon~ias
[%J..
13.5 I:vHHMATA I:vNAAAArMATIKoN IWTIMION - I:VNTOMH nEPlrPA<!>H .. .... .. .. ..
.. .. .. 14
.. ... 14
nfVoKac; 13.2. Iuun;jJaTa IuvaAAaYlJaTlKWV IcroTllJltL)V .....

.... 15
Evwa'l. ........ .. ...... ..........................................

............... .. ........ 16
Lx~~a 13.4. napaywYIKo K(vo KOI nl-'16wplo~ 6 S OE EAMoo. Ipl-ovoia. Eupw-~wv~.. 17
Eveno 13.4. 01 N O ~lo~aTIKts Evwo(lS bEV EivOi yla n<'NTa ...

.. ........ 17
'Dollarization' . .... ...... ...... . .... .. .... ...... .. ... .. .... .. .......... ....................................... ...... .... ,
.. .. 17
Currency Board. ............... .... .. .. .... .. .... .............. .... .... ............ ...........
.. .. 19
"Truly Fixed" Exchange Rate.. ..

.... ........................ .. ......
.. ... 21
Adjustable Peg.. .. .................... .................................

.. ......... 21
Lx~~a 13.5. LUOT~~O Bretlon Woods - Adjustable Peg.

.. .. . 22
Crawling Peg...... .. .......... . ...............

......................
.. ... 22
E'l'ap~oy~ 13.5. Crawling Peg XwpiS npay~OTlK~ AVaTilJ'Io'l

..... 22
'Eveno 13.5. To Crawling Peg T~S Ouyyapias. 1995 - 2001 . .

...23
NOlJlaIJOTlK~
_~~.
13.6
..........................
...... M
Target Zone.. .......... ...... ..

..................................
.. .. 24
Lx~~a 13.6 . Target Zone - napaOTOTlK~ napou oia0'l... .

.. .. 24
Lx~~a 13.7. Target Zone - TtoOEPIS napal-Aayts ...

.. .... .. .. .... 25
Managed Float. . .. .... .. .... .. ..........

.. .......................... .......................
.. .... 26
Pure Float....... ...... ...................... .. ...... .. .... .... .. ...... ...... .... .. .... ... . ............
.. ............... 27
I:vHHMATA IWTIMION - I:YNTOMH IHOPIKH ANA6POMH .

.. ............................. 27
LX~~a 13.6 . LuoT~~OTa LuvaMawaTlKWV IOOTI~IWV ..

.. .. .. .... 27
Kavovas TOU Xpuao(J (Gold Standaref) . 1879 -1913. ..........

.. .................... 29
nivaKOS 13.3. Kavovas TOU Xpuoou - Kupla 8W~IKci & AmoupYIKci XapaKT'IpIOTlKci . 30
'Eveno 13.6. Kavovas TOU Xpuaou - LT08EpOTTOI~TlKOS M~xovlo~oS .. .

.. .... 31
H Tapoxw~'1S nEpio~oS TOU MwoTTo....EIJOU, 1919 -1939................................................. 34
'Eveno 13. 7. b"ev~ ETTEVOUTlKci K('l'ciAOIa - OAa AMci~oUVE KOI OAa TO 'Iola Mtvouv
.................... 34
Eveno 13.8 . H Kpio'l T'IS LTEpl-ivaS TOV LETTTt~~PIO 1931......

.. .. 36
'Eveno 13.9. A~loTTIoTia - Eva Mcie~~a TTOU MoAl-ov bEV A'l'0~0IW6~KE nA~pwS .. ... 38
To IUO'T'Illa Bretton Woods, 1945 -1971. ....

.......................................
...39
51
l:1(0)',CX, IlcxQcxT1}QYJoEI" LI.tOQ6woEI,: EUTCQOOOEXTCX
nivaKO~
Bretton Woods - Kupla eEO~IKO & i\mouPYIKO XapaKT~pIOTIKO

.... .......... ... . ........ ....
....... ........ ........ ........
.......... 39
'Ev8ETd 13.10. l1uo EM~vIKt~ YTTOTl~~Ol~ - MapK<iv~~ (1953) KOI L~~iT~~ (1985) ... 41
'Ev8ETO 13.11. To np6~"~~a N -1.

............. ........ .... .......... ....
.. .......... 42
Ku~a'v6~EvE~ l"oTl~iE~, 1971 - napav..

....................... ..
................... 45
'EV8ETO 13.12. Ymipx, 'O'KOVO~'K6 DNA' TWV E8vwv;

......... 46
H nopEia TTpO~ T~V EupwTTa'''K~ No~,,,~aTlK~ 'Evw,,~.

.. 48
'Ev8ETO 13.13. H Luv8~K~ TOU MaastrichL .........

............. .
...... .. .. 49
13.4.
IuoT~~a
52
14
To
100o~uVIO XprU.lOTOOIKOVOIJ1KWV I:uvoAAovwv
AvaAUO'lllJE Til Iuva~KIlI(Jol)uvalJiac; TWV ETTlTOKiwv

"What forced Thaifand (0 devalue its currency was massive speculation against
the bahr, speculation that over afe w months had consumed most a/ what initially
seemed an awesomely large war chest afforeign exchange. And why were specula
tors belling againsl Thailand? Because they expected the baht to be devalued. of
course. "
Paul Krugman , (1999). " Currency Crises", KEq) CtAULO 8 OTO\l O'UAAoyt KO TallO Inter
national Capital Flows. 1tl).lEAla Martin Fe ld stein, University o[Chi cago Press.
(Lt d ,uBt:p'l un6ooo .,) AUTO TO orrolo av<iYKUO'E l llV Tuu'ACtvoTl va u1tOnJ.l~O'EI TO
VOIlIOIl<1 T'l<; ~ 'rav '1 )Ja~lKit KEpOQ01(orriu GVuvt iov l OU, KP OOOK07tlU 11 onoia gvr6<;
Ol-trWV l..nlveOv E~avT AT\CfE aU1"O 11:0U apXlKa qJUlv6tav EVU avl;aVl"All1"o onAOO"1"acno
ouvaM.aYJ-lunKcOv a1[oSqlCiT(J)V. Kat YlU1"i 01 KPOOO"l(C,1[Ol OTOIX'1IJ.Cr.TlOUV vavtiov
TI1 S TauAav8'1S; 6.t6tl, <pOGU(a, a vtlJ.cvav o n TO VOJ-llOJ-lCr. T'1<; Sa 01totlJ-l'18d.
H KUKAIlCtl AOY1Ktl1" (J)V Kp800K01ttKcOV m8tocov, onlY 01[0111 aVl1qJEpnat 0 P.

Krugman , ElVUl V 8C tKl"tK~ nlS OUO"KoAia<; avuMO"EWe; TOU lOosuy iou XP'1IJ.UTOOIKO
VOIJ.IKWV ouvuUuyWY Kilt. Troy OuV'1tl Kciw OUVEnlcOY lOU ylu t'1V OllcovolJ.ia J-lias
xwpas. Mqa A'1 '1 oU(j1(oAiu, KuOa n KCr.nou:<; ana 1"1<; 1tl1ITWOl<; ayyisouv 1"a op la
W1) napa8ol;ou, alli OXI avuni: p~Allnl. H WynCtl, OUV 7tlKOU POU J-l ~" l1 uno Tll yvoo
011 , napaJ-ltv1 0 KaAuTEpOe; 0811Y0<;.
14.1 EIO"aywYrl
Tov AnpiAlo 2007. 0 ~~ep~",OS DYKaS auvaUaywv ar~ OleSV~ oyopa mJvoUaY lioros
~taV -r~S -raSeOlS -rOlV $3.2 tPIS. AatpovollIKD noo6 ! Kill TaXllTCLtO aus avDlleYo ' Tpia
XPOVlO n:PlV tlttXV KUtl Aly6t tpo an:o 60% autou tOU n:oO"ou, yupw O1"a $1,9 tpl<;, tvw 15
x.pOVIO 1(P'V ~taV liGAte; t o 1/5. rUpw CITO $820 OIS.'
rla va ep80uv aUta to. aotpOVO~J.lKa n:ooa crt y~lva ).lEtpa, 1"0 AETI HOV H .n.A. ~tUV
to 2006 1(epinou $13 tpt<;. ';~Aao~, tOY AnpiAlO 2007 to laoDUvalio t~S asias t~S etfJmas
n:upay(()y~<; tWV H.II.A. o.Vt aAAuOOOto.v U110 Eva v6).ltcr).la OE aA)~o crE AryOt EpOu116 nEvtE
~Il tpec;. rIO t~V Eupw-l;wv~ , t~S o1(oioS to AED ~tOV E8,S tplS to 2006, $11,15 tplS liE
t~V IOOtiliio $ 1,32IE ato ttAOS rou 2006, xpElal;6tov AlYDTEPO ana 4 ~Iltp ee;. E1(io~e;, to
$3,2 Tpic; S1lePVOliV Kon; 1(oAli KO[ TO lleyoAliTEPO tAAllllla aro lool;UyIO tp eXOUOWV mJ
va)..Aay6w 1(OU tXEI KaToypacpEi at~ V 1(aYK6alllO "'tOpia: nepurou $8 10 ot<;, lWV H.D.A.,
to EtOe; 2006 . EEllEPVoliv, 1[ia~c;, KO[ to lleraAUtepo aX1:IKG 1(AEDvaallo, nepinou $173
OIS t~S 1a;<Olvias TO 2006.
o ~llep ~alOS DYKOS auvoUaywv anlv OlESV~ oyopa OUVOAAaYliatoe;, 0 o1(oiae; a1(O
l EAe( ro ouv~tlK6 IltYESOS tau laal;uyiou xp ~llaTOO'Kavo ll'KwV auvaUaywv, CF, tEKIl~
P1WVtl tTj v EK1t).lTjO"1) on t o CF anattAtl to t<JxuPOt EPO KaVa A! ).lEcrW tOU onoiou 1) btE
SV ~S OlKovaliia KUl 01 oIESvEic; xp~1l0layopte; 1[~ pe6.l;auv T~ V eYXWpla alKovoliio Kat tie;
I Ta crtOlXla npoPxoVTm ano n<; avO. 1"pttia J-lElli<; TTlS TpanE~Tl<; 6.L9vWv LUVSIUMaYWY J-lE
TlTAn 'BIS Trienniol Central Bank Survey o/Foreign Exchange and Derivotives Markel Activity'.
TIQJ.u laX
TE
OTTO
VE
E~'I]
tyxmplts xp'I]Jlmayopts. To aUo KavaAl, TO tJlnoP1KO, TO JlytSos TOU oreoiou ClVH!VCl

KAUtUt atO tOO~UYlO tpExouomv cruvaUaywv, CA, E{vell. Cl"XttKU IlIKpO.
flO. tT}v avCt.AU<JT} tOU SV A6Y(JJ wo~uyiou, Km trlv KatavOT}OT} t(JJV 1l!apAT}tWv Ol 0
noi~ to 1tT}PECt.SOUV, 00. xpT}CHIlOnOlT}Oe{ Tl (JVV8~K11 IGo(jvvapiat; raw 1CIWKiwv (Interest
Rale Parity, Jlt aUVlOJloypCl<PiCl IRP). H uno E~traa'l] auvOliK'I] a1lottAti tvCl t~atPtttKO
avaAUttKO EpyuA.io to orrolo. ouv tOI~ clAAOl~, pOT}On OtT}v KataVOT}oT] nOAurrAOK(JJV Kat,
EK 1lPWt'l]S O\jlEmS, Jl'l]-aUJlpatwv JlE t'l] AOYLK~ <paLVOJltvmv ans OlESvEiS Xp'l]JlCltClyopES
ct>atVOIlV(JJV to. onOLa cruXVCt. XOUV (5pallattK~ cruvErrE1E~ Yla n~ OlKOvo~iE~ t rov tllnAE
KOIlEv(JJV XWPWV Kat Yla !T}V E~TiY110Tl twv onoi(J)v nOAAoi avaAUt t~ Kata<pwyouv OE E~o)
tlKEs SEmpitS KClOWS Kal at ""oOEaElS OL O1[OIES Otv crDJlPaOfl;ouv Jlt 1'I]v apx~ on 01 op
OOAoYlKO{ OlKOVOlllKOL napuyovrE~ anocpEuyoUV rrpu~EU; avtiOEtE~ ~E to. otKOVO)ltKU tOU~
aUJl<pEpOVtCl.
llpmteUouaCl aE"'Il avo.Jlwa at auto. ta <paLVaJltvCl EXouv 01 aUtO-EHlpt/lCllOOJltvES
npO<J(5oK{E~ UnOtlllfjoEro~, T} XP'Iparool1<OVOPIKr, polvWJIl (contagion) , Kat Ol rnl~pa<JE1~
tmv OLtOvWV xp'I]Jla1ayopwv ans mwplts. Ev auvtOJliCl. OL aUtO-EHLptpaLOOJltvES 1lpoa
~oKiE~ urrottllfjoEro~ ava<pepovrm <JtT}v aAU<JI(5rotfj avt(8paoT} T} onola ti8Etal (JE KlvT}Ol1
orav Ol ayopE~ apxioouv va rrpoo80KOUV On Eva v6)ltOlla 00. urrOTl)lT}8Ei Kat T} ono(a 0(511
yEi aXEMv VOJlOTtAElaKo. at'l]v u1l0tiJl 'l]a~ tou. MEom t'l] S xp'I]JlatOOLKOVOJllK~S JlOAOVOE
ms, OlKOVOJllKES ~ nOAltLKts OuaXEpEltS OE Jlia xwpa txouv lOXUPO aVtlKTU1l0 OttS xp'I]Jla
m yopts Kat t'l]V OlKOvoJlia aKOJl'l] KaL xmpwv JlE tts 01lOIES 'I] tv A6ym xwpa Otv tXt! E
Jl1l0ptKOOS, XP'I]JlCltOOLKOVOJllKOOS ax,oElS ~ o.UouS OW JlOOS.
Ot OE E1ll0po.aElS Tmv OlEf1vwv XP'l]Jlatayopwv Ot~ EYXWPltS txouv 1[DLKtAtS JlOp<pts,
nOAA~ K troy onoirov osv f:XOUV va KCtvoUV IlE n~ xpT}llo.roo\KovolllKt~ OUVOTJKC; (HT}V
EH'I]PWSOJltvtS XWpES Avt~a pt'l]ta a1lo TO tl Kavouv aUTts ot XWPES, Kat 1l0ao KaAa EivaL
to JlElYJla t'l] S OLKOVOJlt~S 1l0ALTLK~S (O'l]JlO"'OVOJll~S, VOJltaJlClttK~S Kat auvanawan
K~S) nou aKOAOuSOUV, Eivat'ruaAmTES OttS JlErajlal.AaJltvES auvS~KES at~ OlEOVEIS XP'l]
JlClrayopts. Luva~KES ns 01l01ES Otv Jl1l0POUV va En'l]pE"OOUV, Clna miTE KaJ va 1lpoam
rEU80uv anorEA.<J)lanKa arro nc; mnrw(JtC; rou<;.
To. aV(J)tEpro q>aivovrm rrol 61lA01(u, (crro~ Kat napaAoya. Mnopouv, Oll~) va avaAu
Oouv JlE 1'1] AOYlK~, EH!tpE1lovras aTOus 1lA'I]pO<pOp'l]Jltvou s EHtvoutts va KtV'I]aOUv EYKCli
pro<; orav cru)lpa(vouv Eir Yla va rrplopioouv n<; avarro<pEuKrE~ anOOAEtE<; rou ~, ElrE Yla
Vcl Enm<pEA'!]Sotiv ana ns ClVClJltvaJltvES t~EAr.;ElS.
Enla'l]<;' m avmTtpm <patVOJltva Jl1l0pOOV at OpLOJltvtS REpunWOEtS va 1lPOpX
<pSotiv, O'l]JllOUpYWVtaS nmAtov EUKmpiES KtpOOU<; yta touS 1lA'I]PO<POP'l]fLtvOUS
ntvOuTts. KClL totito Olon 1l0AAtS ana ns XP'l]JlatOmKOVOJltKt; t~EAiSELS, Kat 0'1] OL
aXEtLl;OJltvES JlE U1l0nJl~OeL<; Kat XP'l]JlCltOOLKOVOJlL~ JlOAuva'!] KPIOELS, Otv t1ltOClV m<;
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TTOla KOTEU8uvO'r) 80 KIVf]8Ei, KOVE rC; /5v l.mopE i va TTpo(3AilVEltTOIO eo (ivai '1 J.lEAAOVTIKr) loonl-lio.
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X6VTCOV
oUt<;, Ol onole;, UTlIllffitOV, EiVat unOttAall0-rU nllV orroq)(lO'WV tWV E

OlKOVOlllKO KivlltPO E1tEV8u!mv, Su u:{vouv va E~UA(\lfOUV tllV otaq>opa TCOV (mo
A.A.
AVT~ouAaTQ(;
12
MaEWV: MEl<ilvouv ,~v U'l'~A6tEp~ arr600a~, aut~ v ,~, E1IEVOUaEW, aE EUp<il, KUl aUSO
VOUV t~ xafl~A6tEp~ , aUt~V t~ , ErrEVOUaEW, aE OOAOpla. ITapaatatlKO,
. -I-I ) > (I + '$1

. t )* ,S'+I[/$]
(1 + ',
[]
S, / $ .j,
H AOYIK~ ES~Y~~ aKoAoueEi. H flEiw~ til, a1I006crEw, t~, ErrEVoi)(lEw, aE EUp<il avta
vaKAlltat at~ flEiwa~ toU EmtoKiou tOU EUp<il, EVW ~ aus~~ t~, a1Io06crEw, t~, ErrEVOU
aEW, aE OOAapia EXEl OUO cruvlatWaE,. H rrpWt~ axEtil;Etat flE t~v aus~~ t OU ErrnoKiou
tOU OOAapiou, ~ OEUtEP~ flE t~V aus~a~ t~ , avaflEVOflv~, cruvaUaYflanK~, arro06aEw,.
H aus~a~ t~, aVaIlEVO!!Ev~, cruvaUaYl1an~, MO/i6aEWS O'l'EiAEtfll at~v avatill~
~ toU EUpW t~ mlY fl~ I Kat crt~V avaflEVOflEV~ EVLaxua~ toU OOAap(ou t~ <mYfl~ /+ 1. H
flEV avatifl~~ toU OpW aUSUVEl toV aplSIl6 tWV oOAapiwv W, ta orroia IlrropEi va ayo
paOEt 0 Eupw1tu(oC; m;vout~c; ).1. tn AI upoo Kat, cruV81H.oc;, aU~ciV[;l t o K8<paAU10 tOU oe
OOAapIU tTl onYlltll Kat 'to auvoAIKO noaa crt OOAOP1U t o orrolo avu).I.vtl va uarrp6.l;E.l 11')
mlYIl~ /+ 1, W'+I. H OE avaflEVollEV~ EVtaxu~ toU OOAapiou ausaVEt to 1IOao aE EUpW,
Elcr1tp a~Et otav Sa ~l Etatpt\jlEl to
at EUpW.
Ot POE, ErrEVOunKwv KE'I'aAa(wv 1roU 1IpOKaAotiv n, EV Myw IlEtapoAi:, Sa atafla
t~aouv M av .saAE1'l'eEL ~ YEvEaloupyo, toU, anta: ~ ota'l'opa twv arroMaEwv IlEtaSti
t WV Otio ErrEVOUnKWv EmAoywv. Auto ea lYUflPEi OtaV Ot otio EmAoYE, a1Iooioouv ta iOla
xp ~flata KaSlatWvta, tou, "'EVOUt's aOla'l'OpOU,
1tpO, aurE,. 'Otav, O~Aao~, 1<:>XUEl ~
E,B,+1, to onolo aVu).i.VEt 0 Eu pwrraioc; ErrEVOUltlC; va
xp~).l.ata tOU 1(lO(1)
w,
lcr6trrra.
ME t~V (Ota AOYIK~ OEV fl1tOPEi va EiVat ~ E1IVOUa~ aE OOAapla E1UKEpOEmEp~, va

laXUEl O~Aao~ ~ aVlaOt~ta .
(I + iJ)* A, [] < (I + is,,)* s:[~~~]. ,SI+1[!$]

[ / $]
(I + i ,' )< (I + i SJ )* ,SI+1
S,[/ $]
LUVO'IlSOV'tW;, otav U1tUPX.E1 o1U<jJopci OttC; urroc6crEtC; rrapOIlOlwv E1U-:VOut lKWV ErrtAoywv,
E1tEVOUnilV, 0 1 01[0(0 1 npoo1cu8oDV va E1tW<PEA118ouv un6 aut~v, 9tlouV O"E
Ol1tpal;ElC; HOV
Klv ~a~ POE, E1tEVOUnKWv KE'I'aAai<Dv. AutE, 01 POE, Esa4i<jlOuv t~V EV AOYW Olll<jlOpa,
KIlSllYtWVtll, tOU, E1tEVOUtE, aOlci'l'OPOU, flEtIlSti tWV ErrlAoy<ilV. AEnouPYEt 0 Il~xavt

allo, t~, Cl.vrwraelJlcrt'Klj1; Kepoo(f}(oniar; (arbitrage).
M E llaS~llanKOU, opou" 01 OUvaIlEl<; t~, ayopa, Ollla'l'OALl;ouv on ea laxtiEl '1 yvw
crr~ w, EVVe"K~ ](5oovval'ial; rwv mTQKiwv (In/erest Rale Parity - lYUvtO floypa'l'la IRP),
E~Lawa~
(14.6).
T
. ) ,Sf+ I[ / $]
(I+,." ) = (1+ /$,1
* S,[! $]
(14.6)
H EVVe"K~ 1l1wpd va aXeEl at~v a1tAOUatEP~ rrpOaEyylat l~ 1l0p<p~2
2 f1apmTlPWvras on 0 opor; ,S'+I dvOI fO'or;
( 14 ,6) rpacpwlOJS I +1$ (+
,Sf+ 1-Sf
1J.11(PO rIa
)llcllV,
rrupaoC1r)la, )..IE is.!
flU
auv ft~hl
5,
dVal1[o)~u
~l 1+ fS'-t-1 -S, , 1'0 O~[ O'K:A.or; 1"'1r; C~lO'WcrCOJS

S,
Sf
'
+'$1
'
* ( SI +1 -S, ,AlV\ul'OrlvOIJ.VO
1)
Sf
rnl1toa twv E:1ntoldwv Kat 1'(!)V
0,04 (=4%)
avaJ.lCVO~tvwv
$,
"
~ E,Sf+l - S,
SI
IJ.E1'QPOt..WV nov
Kat ava~v6~v'1 (jIJvaAAay~al'l1(~
tcr0 1't~
arr60oO''1 0,1
13
' ; ""$,1
E,S,+,[
/ $]-S,[
/ $]
S,[/$
]
(14 .7)
Otl O:tl~ QVOHi:pro aXten:\(; tovll;'tUl on '1 cruVOAAO:YIlUtLKtl lOOtlllia ivat

EKnE<ppuClflEv~ ClE ElJPW uva OOMiPlO [I$
]. EniCl~e;, 0 bEutEPOS opoe; Clto bE~i ClKD.oe; t~S
(14.7) iva! ~ UVUflv6flv~ mJvuUuYflunK~ UlIObO~ (E~iClOlCl~ [14.4u]).
naputT}pkrtt
'Ev8ETO 14.3. H nil," Ii TWV A E 'KOVWV ETTEV!)UTWV

H auve~KIl loOI5UVCllJio S TWV ETTnoKiwv IOXUEI KOI Via ETTEvI5UTEc,; 01 aTTOrOI EXOUV KE<pCtAOIO 0'
iSoAdplo KO] ~.Jf: TPOOV TOV rrAoUTo KO] TI<) oTTol56oEI<) TOUe,; Errialle; en: l5oAaplo. eo onoiSElx8e::i
E ~TdSOVTa<; TI c,; O'XETlKtc,; orrocpdcrw; [vee,; AIJEPIKOVOO rnEVlS uTr1, 0 onoiae,; tX[1 KE<poAOIO AI
l5oAapiwv.
ETTavaAaj.J~vETai 11 avaAuOIl TOU aX~lJaTO <; 14.2. npOC; TOUTO , Sa rrptTTEI va XPIl0'1j.JOTTOI1l9e::i 11
TlIJ~ TOU wpw
0'(
15oAaplo,
S; [$/ ],
KOeWc,; KO J 11
TlIJ~ tOU EUptiJ Of: l5oAdplo,
aVOIJEvoj.JEvr)
E,S;+I(S/
] , H rrpoKumouaa axtol110oPPoTTloS.
(I+i
s.,
)= (I+i
~
<,'
). E,S;+ ,[$!]
S, [$ /
]
I-HTopEi va I-lETOOXrllJOTIoTEi OE
. ) l
. )
(I + I.I =-\I + IS.I -+
]
S; [$/
]
(I . ) E,S;+I [$/
[
E,S{+I $/
+IS.I ..
S; [$/]
"OI-l~6VOVTO<;: urr' 04J IV on -;---[l ] = 51 [I $J KOI

S, $(
EI S 1+1 [ I $], 11 OVWTEPW oxt ail Elval

E,S;+,[$/
]
~ I~,a~. T~V .~IClWCl~
(14 .6).
AOITTOV, OTTO TOV Ern:V~UT~ , Eupwrrolo r1 AI-lEPlKOVO , KOI oVE~6pT'lTO OTT6 TO
orrol5ooEl<;: j.JETPOUVTOI OE EUpW ~ m: 50AaplO, I'] oxtalllaopporrlo<;: EivOl I'] i510.
AVE~dpTilTO
Eall
01
IUvtTTElE~.
IRP
H ;rvve~Kry /ao Jvv(Jpiac; tWV EmWK;Wv, E~iClOl~ (14.6) KUl ~ lIpooyYlClnK~ t~S JlOp(P~
( 14. 7), UlI01EA[ fliu "Xt~ ,oopponios fll U~u lEClOUPOlV f1l U~A1)lWV: tOlV E"'10K[OlV10lV
bUO EjlnAKOflEvOlV VOfl'ClflU10lV, 11)e; rrupouCl~S KUI t~S aVUf1VOflEv~, lClonfl[u tOuS. f>E
ii OflEvOU on Kitee fliu E~ aUlwv flnoPEi vu A6.~llIO)'MS nflE<;, urritpXE' rrpuKli Ku EvUS it7[lpO<; OUVOUUOJ.lo<; meuvwv tll-lwv nov Tooapwv /lttuBA'ltwV ym tl<; 07[Ol<; IOXUl.
UlIOtAEClflu, 1) V MyOl ;rUVe~K~ fllIopi va E~1)y~ClE' lIitpu 1I0),),,6. urro to lIUpU
t1)POUflVU onS b'EevGlS Xp~flUTUYOptS <pUlVOf1VU, aKo fl~ KUI TU rrMov rrupti~vu KUI, EK
rrpwtl[e; O\jlEOlS, jl~-mJfl~atti jl 1~ AOY 'K~ . TO lOU10TP07rOlS, ~o~eu TU flaw O1~V KUtovo
'l<)Tt toW e~.uh(J)v Ta orroiu U1ITOVtat nov ou:evcOv 1tevou owv Xapt ocpuAo.Kiou Kat, Kat '
7rKtaaW, OtllV avCtA-UOll tOU lOOSUYlOUXPllJ.lUt001KOVO).ltKcOV auvUA-A.ayWv.
M1) ClUS rrpo~A~ flur i~e' to YEYOVOS on 1) ;rvve~Kry EXE' mJvuxei KarOl UlIO UlI),ou
OtUtlK<; \)7[Oe OI<;. H avaipG~ l OU<;, '1 orroia eu -yivEl GtllV 1t6~EVll evoT11ta , oev E7rll
pea!;E' to e~ UUtlle; mJvuy6j.1vu mJfl1tEpaClflato. MEPlKa UlIO UUla TU mJfl1tEpitClflatU lIU
POUOUlSovt"at KUTWttp W.
Kat ' apxTtv, otav KanolO<; EnVOUEt GE ~i:vo VOJll(j).lU np1tEI va Aa~B6.vEI un' O\jJIV
OXt ~6vov t11V U7r6BOOll tOU Em:vOUTtKOU OXT1~Uto<;, EBw TO E1tltOKlO KUt UetOEWV TOU 00
AUp [OU, iv, uu" KUl ll[V aVUflvof1VT\ mJvUUUY flUlI K~ urroboCl~ , %E,LJS>-l [I$].
Dapa
otanKCt,
rl,
(=10%), TO Y l v6 ~ f:VO iVlll lOa JlE 0,04*0, 1 = 0,004 (=0 ,4%). rla uva ~cv6~ CVl\ <rovaUaYIJ unKl\
uttoSO Ol'] iO"1\ ~E 0,01 (1%), TO YIVO ).U:."vO slvm 0,0004 (0,04%). 8tTovTa~ aUT() TO Y IVO~.H:."Vo fO"o ~E
TO ~'lO"V, 1tPO KDttTE\ 'l1tPOO"E)'YlO"nKl'j ~.JOpqHl (14.7),
A .A. Avt(ouNiw<;
14
J(
J(
AvaJl""oJlEVlJ An080011
EmToKLO
AvaJlCVoJlEVlJ
En",,8"<:,",()J S/ ~aTaetae()JS =
:::~ou
+ ruvaU,aYJlaTlK~
(
aE"EVQ NOJllaJla
NOJllaJlaTOS
Ano 8oml
( 14,8)
'OTaV, OJl()JS, " "EvMEI mo vOJllaJla T~S xw pas tou, ~ arr080a~ TOU ElVal ia~ Jl" aUT~v TOU
7rtvOUttKDU OX~I..tatO~: V npOKELlltv'1 m :pl1tTWo"El 1 0 E1tnoKtO Kala8toE(L)v TOU upw , ici .
AnD 1tpaKnK~ C; 1tArup6.C;, c6.v ElVUt if" = 5% Kat /s,1= 4%, 61[00<; 01"0 nupablY/la tOU
ax.~ Jlatoc; 14.2, OEV rrptrrc\
lvat 1nKEPOcrU:P'l.
K<l1[OlOC;
va O1U:UOEt va OU~1tEp6.VEl on 11 rnvQUOll m: upw So.
H i8la AOY1K~ WXUEl Kat Yla 8aVEWJlo aE ~EvO vOJlwJla. To Komos 8aVElaJlOU ea 1
VOl 100 ~ 10 E1tt'rOKIO tOU ~tvou vOJli oJlutoc; cruv tl1v aVUJlEVoJlEVT] cruvaAAaYjJ.anK~ 0.1[0
80a~/JlETaPOJ..~. Eav TO ~EvO vOJlwJla aVaJlEvETal va avaTlJl~eci, ~ "AeuTaia ea eiVat eE
TlK~ Kat, cru VE1tW S, Ell; papoS t()JV 8avEl~O JlEv()JV"
L uvErrws, xaJl~A6tEpo E1tU6KlO 8aVEWJlOu a TO ~EvO vOJllaJla 8"" O11JlaivEI on TO
KoaTOS 8aVEl<1JlOU ea civat xa Jl~J..otEpO, To EveETO 14.4 E~~y1 aVaAUTlKO TO ytati. Do
V'[()JS, rrAe icnOI oaOl OIKOVO JlIKOi rrapayovtES ( Jlaeav auto TO JlOe~Jla at~ V rrpo~~, 1tJ..~
PWVOVTaS aKplpo,
'Ev8no 14.4. flovuu 6
<JE
=EVO
No
10"
'EOTW on Til OTlYIJr1 I , I-lie ETOIPr.iO Tl'1t; Utopia i5avd~ETQI A, \.IE ETTITOKIO i'r' ME Tr) auvaMaYlJaTlK~
looTll.lia 5, [NV/j, Tr] aTlYIJ~ I EIOlTpaTw B/ = AS, NoValues.
Til (JTfY IJ~ r+1, eo TTptrr.1 va ETTlcrTPElpEI ( l +i ,)A upw TO OTTolo, ).IE Tr']V TOTE 100TI).I10 SI+/
[NY I] So Koari{ouv B' ~ J :: (I +if,,)A S,_J NoValues.
To 0' NoValues Koaro<; TOU l50VEIO).lOU Tl'l<; ElOlPEio<; EivOI
(I + i, , )AS,+ I[NV/]- AS, [NV/ ]
,
AS, [NV/ ]
0troVlO<; TO YIVO).lEVO OTO 5E~ i OKo..O<; 100 ).IE TO ).IIl l5tv, OTTW<; OTIlV UTTOOllJJEiwOll 2, TTPOKUTTTEI
BHI - B,
B,
~ '.J +
SHI [NV/]- S, [NV/]

S,[NV/E]
E6v TO wpw OVOTlIJIlSEi, l5 1lAo l5 ~ , S,...J (NV/ ] > 5, [NV/ ), TO KOOTO<; 50VEIO).lOU OE EUPW
4l llA6TE:PO TOU ETTITOKiou TaU EUpW. KOI OVTlaTpO~w<;.
'Ev8HO 14,5, 'Car
Trade' -l!. a
eo iVai U
' Kat r.EV
To AEYOIJEVO 'carry trade' ovacpEpETaI OE lJio UlpllAou KIVlSuvou ETTEvl5UTIK~ OTPOTIW'Kr'\ iJE VOlJiOiJOTO:
Tov l5avEloJJQ at tva VOIJIOlJO JJE XOJJI1A6 ETTITOKIO KOI Tllv Err!vlSuOIl TWV XPIl).lOTWV OE EVo oMo,
ouvr'\Sw <; UTTO TI') iJ Opcpr\ KOTOStOEW<;. iJt u4lIlAo EmToKlo.
ETTEVl5U Tr'\ ~ aVO).lEvEI va tXtl Ktp150<; OTav 11 i5lacpopci TWV ETTITOKiwv ~ETTEpv6 Tllv ovaIJEVO
IJtVI') TTOOOOTIolo UTTOTIIJllOll TOU vO).lio).lOTo<; IJE U4lI1Ao t TT1T6K10 .
ME opOU<; TWV E~IOWOEWV (14.7) KOI (14.8). tOTW
TO ETTIT6KI0 lJioc; TTE.P1650u TOU YltV EivOI
i K1 = 0,5% , TO OVTiOTOIXO ETTITOKIO TOU 50Aopfou Ntoe; ZI1AovlSlo<; i NZ.I = 5,5%, KOI '1 OVO).lEVOIJEVIl
ouVaAAOYIJOTIKr'\ oTTolSoOIl TWV tm:v5UQVTWV crTI') Nta ZllAav6io
all
( ,s,., [INZ$] - S, [INZ$] ) I S, [lNZ$] ~ 2%.

E voC; ETTEVlSuTr\e; . 0 oTToiee; 5avti{.TOI YIt.V KOI .TTEV5u.1 OE 6oMpio Nto<; ZIlAav5ia<;, Tl'l OTIY).Ir\ TI1<;
ETTEVlSuOEW~ I YVWpi{EI on So KEpiSioEI 5% OTTO Til lSlOCPOpO TWV ETTlTOKfwv ( = iNZ , - i l :, ) KOI avolJtv[ 1
va XdOEI 2% OTTO Tllv QVQIJEVOJ,JEVf] unmiIJr}oll TOU lSoAapiou Nta<; Z'1AavlSla<;. To aVO).l[VO)JEVO
Kt plSo<; TOU [ivol 3% ( = 5% -2% ).
rtvIK6TEPO, 11 mtvl5uor'\ TOU OVOJ,JEVETOI vo [iVai ETTIKEp6r'\C; OlOV
.
'NZ
A ,A.
.. +
,S,+ I [YINZ$ ]-S, [Y/NZ$ ]
AVT(ouM to<;
S, [YINZ$j
.
>/1'
..
, , '- .'r.
"""HZ
>
, S,+I[YINZ$]- S, [YINZS]
S, [Y/NZ$j
15
K, .
o ETTVOUT1KOC; KivZ)uvoC; TTPOtPXTal O:TTO Tl'lV TT18avOTr]Ta r] UTTOTi!-lr]or] TaU VOlJ iOIJOTOC; OTO OTToio
TTVZ)U(l/Z)avf~1 va rival !-IyoMn:pr] aTTo TI) l5lacpopo TWV TTlTOKfwv. .6.r]Aal5~ , f) ouvaJ..AOYIJa nK~
OTTOZ)OO1) va EivOi apV1)TIK~ KOII-lyoMJTpr] O( onoAuTO I-lEy90C; OTTO TI) OIOCPOpO: TUlV ETTITOKlwv.
Ie OpKntc; m:plTTfliJoIe;, TO 8I-lEAIWOr] OIKOV0I-lIKO !-IEy(8 1) Eival TETola WoT a ETTVZ)UTlKOe;
KivZ)uvoe; va ivol oXTIKcl IJIKPO<;. 01 TTVZ)U Tte; 6v (fvOI TTapoAoyol . AvaJ..0lJl3ovouv AEAoYIOIJEvoue;
Klv('5uvOUe;.
.6.uo TETOIEe; TTPITTTWOIe; ivOI TO AVolJvo 'convergence play' TWV xwpwv 01 oTTofe;:
TTl9ulJoUV va vTOx9auv OTI)V ONE, IJ xapOKTf)pIOTIKO TTopa6IYlJa aUTO TI) e; EAAoooe; ora TEAr] Tr] e;:
i5Koniae; TaU 1990, KOI Tl'le; IOTTwviae;: O'TO TTPWTO IJIOO Tf)e;: oEKoETioe; TaU 2000.
'Convergence Play' - H npfTTTWOr]
Trl~
lipOXl-lriC;:.
ITO TTOlxviol OUYKAioEWC;:, 01 ETTv6uTEC;: TTOVTO:POUV OTI I) UTTOTilJr]OI) TOU VOl-liOI-lOTOC;: I-liae;: xwpoe; 'l
oTTaio CTTlOIWKEI vo yfv1 IJtAoe; Tl'l e; ONE 90 [VOI IJIKpon:p'l OTTO TI) OIOCPOpc'J TWV mToKiwv Tr]e;
EVOVTI TWV ovnoTafxwv TTlTOKiwv TOU EUpW ~ , TTplV T'lV I aoywv~ TaU EUpW, TWV TTlTOKiwv TOU
r PI-l0VlKOU jJO:PKOU. 0 Aovoe; EivOi on TUXOV UTTOTil-l'lo'l 80 ouoxtpalv( T'lV TTpoomi9Elo EVTa~EWe;
OTl'lv O.N.E.: ea i51l1-110UPVOUOE TTAIl9wpl0TlKEe; TTltole; OTTO TrlV TTAupd Tr] e; TTpOOcpOpae; (~AtTTETE
TIlV EVOTI)TO 3.4 "nAr]8wpIOIJ0l; - 'Evae; CllouAoe; KUKAoe;" ), OIOKU~UOVTOe; TI)V TTfTEU~rt vae; K TWV
KPITl)pfwv EVTa~EWe; , aUTO TOU XO jJrtAou TTArt9WPIOIJOU.
AUT~ I) OTPOT'1YIKrl rlTOV 0f'll-l0tpl"-rie; KOI Via TrlV EMI)VIKrl 6paXIJrl OTO Xp6V1O TTplV Tr]V 100 150
Tile; OTf)V ONE TO 2001. Km 0XI xwpi<; Aovo, OTTWe; H:KIJI)PIWVI TO OKoAou90 O'XrllJO TO OTloio
TTa p OUOIO ~E I TIC;: IJl)vlaiEe; aTTo600Je; (VOe; ETTEV6u Trl a oTToioe; oavEI~otaV Via Eva )Jrlva OTI)V
r EPIJOVlKr) oiOTpaTTE~IKti Ovopa KOI EntVOUE TO XPrll-l0TO VIO tva I-Irlvo OT'lV EA"-r] VlKrl 610TpaTT~IKrl
ovapa.
MIlVloiEC; ATTOlioOEIC;: [%] l-IE 'Carry Trade' Tile; lipaXl-Il'le;
4r---------------------------------------------,
: IT~~,,1trlt,~Y-'-'-'-"T"'ll..L..-""
'-.'' '.
~
' "I ' - , . - L
~2
-4
~ L-------------------------------------------------~
10v-95
10v-96
lov-97
lov-98
I,,,,,,,
01 I-l'lvlaiec;: aTToi5ooEle; riTOV KOn] KOVOVO 8TlKte;. H IJtoll IJr]Vloia OTT0i500r] VIO Tllv TTpioi5o
lovo uopfou 1995 - .6.EKIJ~piou 2000 ~TOV TTpfTTOU 0,5% KOI IllJtOI) TrlO'lO 6,5%. no Tl'1v m:pioOo
Jovouo pfou 1995 - .6.EK)Jj3piOU 1999, TO aVT[oTOIxa IJVt91l ~TOV 0,65% KOI 7,8%.
E VOE IKTl K ~ TaU KIVOUVOU TflC; OUVKEKPl I-IEVI)e; rnEVOUTlK~C;: OTpaTIlVIK~e; EivOI I) lJVoAI1 OPVIlTlK~
OTTOOOOr] TOV Cll~pouaPlo 1998. 'H TOV OTTOTtAEOIJO TI)e; UTTOTI!-Ir1i5Ewe; Tr]e; KEVTPIK~e;: IOOTllJfoe;: TI)e;
~pax~~<;
- 'Carry Trade'.
'Eva ~EUVaPI V0I-lIUIJOTWV Via TO oTToia TO 'carry trade' f)rav TToAu I-lEV6"-o OTIC; apxte; Tile; OEKOTioe;
TOU 2000 OUviOTOTO OTTO TO Vltv IOTTWvioe; KOI TO i5oAaplo Ntoe; ZIlAovi5ioe;. H IOTTwvio EIX TTOA U
XOIJI)Aa Em TOKIO , KOVTa UTO 0%, Mvw TOU aVTlTTAll8wpl0lJou (~AtTTET TO tv8tTO 5.13 "0
AVTmA1)9wplolJ0C; TflC; IOTTwviac;, 1999 - 2005"), EVW fl NEa ZIl"-av6ia EiXE 0XETIKO UlVfl"-a ETTITOKIO ,
Mvw TWV TT"-1)9wPIOTlKWV TTltOEWV TI C;: oTToiEe; av nI-lETW TTl~E I) xwpo.
To KO TWTtpw OXrllJO oEixv1 Tie; IJl1vloiEe; OTTOOOOJe; (oTf)AEe;) EVOe; E:TTEVOUTrl 0 OTTOrOe;
i5ovl ~o rav OTflv OIOTpaTT~IK~ ovapa TI)C; IOTlwvfae; KOI i5aVI~E OTI)V i510TPOTTE~IKrl Tfle; Ntac;
ZflAavoiae; Via Eva lJf)va.
16
M'lVloire; ArroC5ootle; [%] !-IE - 'Carry Trade', 1996 - 2007
lOr------------------------------------------------------,
8
o
2
-6
"' ~------------------------------------------------~
10....01
lay.02
lalJ.03
10 ....04
10 ....06
napa TOV KIV~UVO TWV apVIlTIKWV ano~O~tWV, 01 OTTolioow;: ElvOI IJOMov tAKUOTlKte;: H 1J0'1
!-IllVlOiO OTTCX)OOIl VIO lllv uno .~tTOoll m :pio150 ~TOV rrtpinou 1,2%,11 liE IJEOIl Tr)alO 14,7%.
To 'carry trade' ~nop'i vo o15IlVr)Ol:1 at arrooTa8tporroillTIKfI I5UVOIJIKr) TWV ouvOMaViJOT1KwV
JOOTJIJIWV: H EIOPOr) OTO vOlJlolJa )JE TO ulp'lAon:po EmTOK10 VO rrpoKaAtoEI oVOTf)JIlOr) TaU , EVW 11
EKPOr) orro aUTO Ot urroTil-lllO~ TaU.
AUTr) 11 OUVOIJIKr) tVEXEI KIVI5UVOU<; 0XJ IJOVO VIO TOU<; trrEv15uTEe; aAAa KOI VIO TIlV xwpa I-IE TO
UlpllA6 EmToKIO.
ME avmpopa oro - 'carry trade', VIO TOU<; ETTEVI5UTt<; a Kivl5uvo<; tXEI w<; E~r)~: Edv, via
orrolol5r)TTOTE Aovo, OPKETOi arro aUTou~ arrocpaol~av va KAEfaauv TIe; 8tOEI~ TOU<;, Il aU~lllJtvll
~f!TIlOIl Via VIEV EVEiXE TOV Kivl5uvo TOO'O IJEV6AIl<; avaTlIJr)O'EWC; TOU tvavTI TaU 150Aapiou Ntae;
ZIlAavl5io<;. 0<; OTTOTtAEOIJO. 01.01 01 ErrEv15EUTE<; 80 Eixov ~1l)Jia . Ev OMVOI<;, TO 'carry trade' IJrrOpE; va
KaTOAr)~EI OE IO'opporrfo TaU TpO)JOU t
flo rrEplcrcroTEPt~ AE:TTTOlJtptIE<;, OUVlO'Toral IlIJEAtTIl "Risk in Carry Trades: A Look at Target
Currencies in Asia and the Pacific", by Jacob Gyntelberg and Eli M. Remolona , SIS Quarterly
Review . December 2007. pp. 73 - 82.
no Til xwpa )JE TO U~H1M E:TTlTOKIO a Kiv15uvo<; tVKtlTOI OTO OTI IJnopEi va rrpoKAIl8Ei )JtVaAIl
UTTOTfl-lf101l TaU vO\JiOlJaTO<; orav IJETaf3A'l60uv 01 npool5oKite; Via TO tmTOKIO 1) Tie; auvoMaVIJOTlKE<;
IOOTllJit<;. :[E OUTOV TOV Kiv(Suvo. TlP006tOQTE KOI Tf1 QUOKoAia (SIOXElploEW<; Tile; OIKOVOlJ ia<; t VEKO TIl<;
aTToOTaaEponOIIlTlK~<; I5UVO)JIKr')<; TWV c51E8vwv ETTEVI5UTlKWV K[(paAoiwv, 11 OTloio avaAuEral OTllv
EVOT'1TO 17.2 ".618vr)C; ETTEvl5UTIKO KE<poAOIo - .6IMIJIJOTO
H
t..EilTPOV, Tj avaflCVOflCVTj cruvuAAOYflOTliClj uJOTlfl(a fl'WP( va cruvaXSEi u1[6 tTjv S(O"W

<J1l (14.6). E(VUI Tj flOVTj iLyvwcrtTj flTa~l.TjT~, KoSon to 1rlTOKlU KOL Tj1[apouO"o IOOtlflia
7tUp at llPouvrat.
Tpttov, to v6~lO"J. l a to onola ava~tvTat va U1totlJ.l.Tjei? rrpocr<ptpEl UW'1AOU: pO rrt

TOKlO. EUv TO eupw avafltvnol vo U1[OTlfl1'\S~ o1'\l.ao~ laxU[ on E,S'"i [/$] > S, [I$], 0
OUTPO, opo, TTj, SIO"WO"W, (14.7) EivOL 9nKO, Kat, cruV1rW" TO mnOKIO tou UpW
rrpOKt)1[tEl U''1AOtpO tou RTrOKiou tOU OOAopiou, ie.! > i s.,. Kat avncrrpoq:)(J)<;. TIapacrta
TlKO:,
ES,; I [I$] > S, [E/$]
~ iE'
> i,,,
Kat
Mul.,ato, orr"" rrpOKU1tTl fl avaouiTaSTj TWV OpolV TTl, SIO"WO"W, (14.7), Tj Otacpopu TWV
1tltoKiwv 800 xwpwv iVOI iaTl fl TI]v ova~cvo~cv1'\ rroaoanoio flTaDol.~ TTl, cruvol.
l.aYflonKi], TOU, laOtlflia,. H Tl.eura(o EivOl i<J1l fl T1'\V OVOflCVOf!CV1'\ cruvoUOYflOnK~
U1{oooa1'\ (s(O"wa1'\ [14.40]).
(14.70)
rEVIKou:pa, ym
ouo VOJ.l.iOJ.l.U1:a, taTOO a Kat b, tGXUEt

17
lOlX'gO,?OllOt[ :~"'O'!'eaOlV '5,.o~ail.llOalOU 'lOr(,?X::r

;olf~nO:<'AV
81
Y"V ClI
"59doAo Slu AM3rh?l\oQ 1\('1')1 Orl03Y:J10IW

IDA!3 QYYO ' ~~110dlll.L3 5~)l10lH'I')dn3 Sla 90DlI\Ol\O>l I\O"~I\O)l ~)1lD lJ8~yg 3113 1\3V '501orl~lDno
n01 50JlDIllO'~O 5tu Ort03'010110 101\13 "3 "N "O 5l.lll.Jy~r1 - 53df!1X SilO (\(Y)!)lOll1l31\(11! UDII()lAJ)D H
"lPVYO
0 /\ 1OJ.3/q rlOAO IUQ '1\01('0" t\OlDIXQynol ~HDdo 01 CIA '0 10110 01 "!llliIlODI l\!ld38010 Orll.JIDt)O
01D 11l9 1~D orq 3D MOX:}J.3rlrln:r "!!I dn3 01 'DrlDlrfgf\ 012! 01 MOX~ "3 'N"O )La UY1ri - S3dc;JX 10
Af!l -f') "3 AULD Af')!~01l113 Af')lUD'V~ ~l 9 v~ 0119A3.
I'q, =" o!
ft
[ql "l's
o [q I "j1s -[<II "l'+'s':q

ft
[qI "l's = [q I "J '+'S'S'
ft
"9,nllO!l1 "9d39Dl:J: DnU1!l~:J: 01!l11L91~V
'(gctll S(D30lJl"'~3 Siu ~D~dX 3n 1D~ '~)jllD1!lDdDLI "'/811n lDA)3 D9 ~!lOg91LD ~~llDn
-AD'C(DM!l uA3n9A3TIDAD 11 ' Dn!l~1'0ltD Su ,S = '-'S'S' :Do~odDlt AIll 3T1 U!l) D)n110m ~
-l1AO'C(3n ~A3n9A3nDAD Alll M0119 'SlJllt3M:J: ")39u~gn13n D9 A3g D]n110m U119 Ano",/nDA
l\(!'droX t\O'M?rlO:>t3"(llTh 1\0)1 Dl)t9 1111
-'0 );nngA3lL3 10 ' nrlulO)D O\O~l n~ 33:. ' m g ! OllDl\}3
-3 D1 'l\q:nnUODl i\q>>tllDTi)..n'('(Di\fi.D i\q>d39Dl.O (I1"1U1.o\LD OlDllt.91;U IJA? 3 .0 'AOl.dU1~1
m>911lL3 Dd319'(llnnX S(D9~M!l AnoX1 DlDnO]nOA 9dnX", 3n S3dlJlX 10 'S(D1191LAV 501

-DTI!l)nOA S~0 A3 9!lD S9A3 ~!lUn)lOlLn ~A3n9A3nDAD Alll 9ltD D)nU) ~A3n9 A3nDAD A~l '~g~
-ug 'unog9lLD ~l1DnADnnA nn ~lluAdn uA3Ti9A3nnAD AUl m.l S11ngA3lt3 Snol MOAlJllnU)
-OlLU UDt911lL3 Dd319t:u!hn IJl. "IJDt911lL3 Dd3 19,,(uthn S{T)9~A(l.D AnoX1 'm11\~ri1l0lt.n DI\ I\nOI\
-]31 DIOlLO Dl DlDnolnoA 3n
'~gD~ llg
'DlDn!llnOA ~1\39!ln 3n S3dlJlX10 ]lmA ml]3AU~3 1013..
>
Tv~ ~Aor1dOd'J3 ALUIO)l 3!311~Y8
$ / 8080'03 = $ / 8'03 .10'1= [$ / 3]'S(IO'O+ I) = [$ / 3] 'HS 'g <=
[m ]'s
10'0 = H)'O-,0'0 - [$ /3] 's - [$/3] [+'S':3
-011
U t;!1\3 '(%t=)
13UU)lodll '(DL"v~ ) S(T)3Dl!lDI~3 Slu ~Aor1do d')3 3Lf!J "$/8'03 = 'S IOA.l3 Ojr1110DI ODl)od
(% ~ =) S"O'O = 1"3! IOAJ3 01:>1911113 01 ' l ' v~ SOlDrllfXD no! 0r1AI3QJ;ldoll 01];
vo'o = rs! 10)1
DOQ911.\f :MUO
oyyol\nl
11.3 91\3 OAY ID)f DI>l91111.3
tt~ .
D 3
"IptUDl01U!3 I\Uln lIJ1391l.DOdlL U!OlLO U ' ltno29lLD ~~l1DrU.o"(

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Su",/noA3TiDAD SUl 91!l0!l01L 01 ~lO~ Soo'!'X Sun'! S~l nO]~0l11L3 nOl Od319'(llnnX lDA]3 D9
Slu 91 ~91ll!3 01 'P9urillUAU 01\ lD131\:;n10I\IJ Sud C9X ,0}T1 uri.Dlri91\ 011\1)13 <,roX!OlDllAV
SDd lJlX SUl SOlDTi!l]nOA nOlll!lun]lOlLn
~A3TI 9A3nDAn
Alll 9lLD Dln~)
~A3n9A3TIDAD
AUl
OlA ' UD029lLO t.D lllnrlAU"("(IJI\C\.D ~)lllUl\do UA3ri9A3riDAU I\U1 OlA uriDl.ri91\ 01 91nu 30 '31A
-O~gA31L3
SnOll3AlJl,nU)OlLn
01~9111L3 Od319'( ~ rl1n
01 '(.p I
~Aondnd)3 A~1!llDl]3A~~3
S(DlLo.
S{T)3.ot;ri1l0lLCl. ' UA?riOA3riOAIJ SUl 910 0DOlt. 0 1 'J:)lU){ 'Jt3.o190lLn S?~1l(l31DCl.0"(1.m S3D}39
-d3dmAuo dll S11 9 11n 'D1Dl'(1}ri lD)I 5DdC!>'X SU,(,,(l? SU1 nOp!.0 111!3 nOl Od319'( u !hn lDl\!3 DI\ l311
-?dll SU1 9\~911lL3 01 !39urfllOllCl. DI\ 1D13A?riUI\)J Sud~X SU}ri uriDlri9A 01 1\1)3 'm 3lL?ACLO Su
[q /o)'S
[q l0j's-[ql"l'+'s'il
(gnl)
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01 KOVOVI0I-I0! aAAa~ouv, 01 VDI-I0I Tr]() oyopa() OXI. rl ' auro Kal I'] O"I.JYKArol'] TWV ETTITOKiwv IOXUEI
61aXPovIKci OE 6AE() TI() VOIJ10I-IOTIK() EVt.iJOEI().
ITptnEl va tovlO"8El on Q~lOTrlOtO c(VQl to <rtiotTJ)..la to onolo Ej..lTrlouuovtm 0\ EIU;VO\)tEt;

Ol OnOtOl. Of: td.lK~ UVOAUOll, OlaKtvBuveUouv to. xp~J..lata tou~. 6.cv apKEl )..lio. KUPepVTl~
CIT[ ~ KCVtPlK~ tpanct;a va aVQK01VWOcl otl Sa aKOA.OUS~ac l nOArrlK~ otaScpa.~ lO"OtlJl{a~
tvuvn KU.,WlOU VOJli.aJlutO~. npEnEl Ot crrEVBute~ va TrlOtEUOUV on aut~ 11 7t OArnK~ 80.
e'l'ap~o<Hei.
Eav 10 KD<HO, IiUlt~p~oeUl, t~, OtuOepa, toon~ia, dval ~EYaAO, lilon, 1l.X., arrote
Ad tpoxollEIi~ Yla t~v avooo tUlV e~ayUlYWv Kat t~V OIKOVO~IK~ aVarrtU~~, 01 errevliUT<;
avayvUlpil;ouv 10 Kiv1ltPO tUlV Arxwv va t~V EYKata:\.ell!,ouv. Errelo~ lie OE t EtOlE<; llEPl
mwoEl, to vO~\(J~a auV~OUlS ullon~(ltal, 01 errevliuTts 8a <;~tOUV U\jf~AOtEPO e1l\To<10 UlS
arro<;~~iUl~ Yla t~V apv~n~ auvaUay ~an~ allolioOll ~v olloia 8a U1l0<HOilV EaV
au~PEi ~ U1l0ti~~o~ KaHi. t~ IitllpKEla t~S ellEVOUOEUlS.
Yrrapxouv, errio'l" llEpmtwoElS 01l0U, llapa t~V etl.lKplv~ 8tA'l~ tUlv Apxwv va lil
at~p~oouv t~v 1l0A\t\~ t~S <Ha8Epa, lC5otl~ias, ~ oUVatoT1]ta TOU, Eival llEPlOp\(J~tvT].
AvaYVUlpU;OvtaS aUt~v tw rrpawatlKDT1]ta, Ol errevliutts Kal rr6.l.1 8a <;1]totiv U\jf1]AOtepo
E7t1tOKlO.
I;UY KEKp\~tva rrapalidy~atu
8a au<;T]t~80i>v Otu errD~EVa tpia KE<pUAata, J.t to u

Mundell - Fleming. Mia rrpwt1], mi.VtUl" aio8~~ autwv tUlV lleptllTWOEUlV, lii
VEt 10 tv8no 14.7.
Arro rrpaKtl~, llAEUP 6." ~ ava~EVo~EV~ auval.l.ay).latl~ tI;otl~ia em, ESlOwOEtS
(14.6) Kat (14.7) Eivat aut~ rro u rrpoolioKotiv Ol ayopts Kat rrl8avov va ~1]V au~rrim Et J.t
tllV avaKOIvUlOEioll allo tTlV KUPtpV~~ ~ tllv KEvtPt~ tp6.llE<;a.
rrDoEly~a
' EVOETO 14.7 . MaK OOIKOVO IKE
AVIC10
On-if
Kal ETTITOKla
01 XWPE() I-IE I-IEydAE() I-IOKPOOIKOVOI-IIKt() OViOOPPOTTiE() cruv~ew<; txouv u4JI']Mn:po ETTITOKIO. eO' E~E
T6aoUI-IE TPEi() TTEpITTTWaEI(): Xt.iJPE<; IJE IJEy6Aa EMEiIJIJora rou laoi;uyiou TpExouawv ouvaAAoyoov,
XWPE() IJE ulPI']A6 TTAIl8wpIOIJO (UlPIlAoTEpo OTTO TOV TTAIl9wploIJO TWV EI-ITTOPIKWV TOU() ETOipwv), KOI
XWPE() IJE IJEyciAo EAAEf~l.Jara TOU TTPOOTTOAoYIOIJOU KOI U4IflAo xpto().
ria TIl; 6uo TTptiJTE<; aViaoppoTTlt(), J3M"m:: T( TflV EVOTflTO 13.4 "nAfl8wpl0IJO() KOI MEmJ3oAt<; TI']()
OVOlJaOTlK~ IOOTllJio()". Kuplo OUIJTTt pao!Jo Tr]() Eival OTl, OTav UTTapxouv 01 Mo aUTte; aVlcroppoTTfEe;,
fl !Jov!"} oJ3E~aloTflTO !"} oTTofa uTTdPXEI 6EV oc.popo oro crv eO' anoc.pEux8Ei 11 OvolJacrTIK~ UTTOTilJflO'1.
AUT~ E:ival avoTToc.pEUKTIl. AAA6 TO rr6n eO' crUIJ~Ei , KOI TT600 jJEyaAf] eo Eival.
Avayvwpi~oVTO() aUT~v TI']V TTPOYIJOTIKOTIlTO, 01 ETTEV6uTt<; ~I)TOOV aTTo~1"\lJiwO'1 Yla va ETTEV6u
OOUV aro VOIJIOIJO TIl<; xwpa<;, UTTO TflIJOP<P~ TOUUlIJ'l"-OTEPOU : TTITOKlou.
Ooov Oqlopa crTI']V TpiTIl aVloopPoTTia, 01 ETTEV6uTE<; avayvwpi~ouv TOV TTElpaOIJO TWV Apxwv
va XP'1IJQT060T~OOUV TO IJEyciAa EAAEilJlJOTcr TOU TTPOOTTOAoyrolJoU IJE TIl v EKTUTTWOfl xp~lJaTO<;. eO'
aU~1"\TIleE I mo KEqloAmo 20. H EKTlJTTWOI'] XP~IJOTO<; , OlJw<;, KOI " ouvoKoAou81l aU~I']OIl Tr]<; VOIJIOIJO
nK~() KUKAoqlopia(), TTpoKaAouv TTAlleWpIOTIKE() TTIOEI() aTTo TI']V TTAEupO Tr'I<; ~I)T~OEW(). lJ.(.v Eivol E~
ar.,,-ou Tuxoio on 01 TTOOXOUOE<; OTTO UTTEPTT"-fl8wPIOIJO XWP<; EXOUV ulIJI)Ao EMEiIJIJara TOU TTPOO
TToAoytolJ oU
ETTITTAtov, 01 ETTEVOUTE() avayvwpi~ou v TOV TTElpaOIJO TWV Apxwv va IJEIWOOUV TO KOOTOe; E~U
TT'lp('T~aEw<; TOU OUOOWPEUIJVOU xptou<; IJE UljJIlAoTEpo TTAl']eWpIOlJO. KOI AOIJ!3avouv urr' 64J1V TI']e;
TTl8avt() OUVETTElt<; TOU avoql0pJKd IJE TI'] ouvoAAay~oTlK~ aTT06ool']. BAtTTTE 0XETIKO Kal Tflv EVDH1TO
5.2 MTo Kooro<; TOU nAfl8wpJoIJ0(f.
rrt~1!tOV, Tl axt~ ~etoSu t1]S ~EtoPOA~S tUlV E1lltOKiUlV Kat t~S ~EtopoMs tllS (JlJVaA
AaYJlatLK~~ lOOnJl(a~ Bev ctVUl )..lovocr~Jlo.Vtr\ : E~aptatUl ano "IllV altra nou tL~ npOKaAel.
Qs a1l0TAEO~1l, ~ia llti~~~ toU errltoKiou ~ias xwpas ElVal au~pat~ Kat ~E avati
~~~ Kat ~E urroti).lll~ toU vo~i,,~atDS t~S. To arrooElKVuOUV to 1lOpaliEiwata t~S E'l'ap~o~, 14.4.
E
14.4. METa
oAi.
TWV ETTITOKiwv Kal TWV
luon IWV
eEwpioTE Tflv Utopia KOI TO VOIJIOIJO Tilt; NoValue. H axtol) (14.6) ypciqlTOI we;
( 1+1 . )=( 1+ ;
N I-.1
.,
).E,S/+l [NV / ]
SJNV/ ]
]9
U ~
ME if., = 0,04 , S, "" NV IO/ KOI , S/_.1 = NV II / npOKUnTEI OTI

NV II /
(1 + INV,) = (I + 0,04)* - - - ::::) INV I = 0,144 (::: 14,4%).
.
NV IO/ '
nEpfmwor) 1r]. H KEVTPI K~ TpciTrE~O TI)<; Utopia, OTO n Aoiolo Tl'l<; npoOTTo9Elo<; EAtyxou TOU n A1)
2%. H E.K.T. ~EV oAAa~ E I TO EnnoKlo TI)<; Eupw
~WVI)<;, EVW 01 ETTEV~uTt<; ~EV aAAa~ouv Tl'lv aVOIJEvOIJEVI) IOOTl~io.
ME T1)V avo~o TOU iNv./ OE 0,0164 (:0,0 144 + 0,02), '1 Entv~UO'1 OE NoValue VivtTOI roI KE p~tOTE
PI) H EIOPO~ KE<pOAOfwv crTll Xwpa ou~aVEI HI ~~Tll01) VIO TO VOIJIOIJO: Tlll:; OTI)V ovopa ouvoMaVlJo
TOI:;, IJE OTTOTAEO)..lO T1)V OVOlI),JI)OI) TOU NoValue. H 10OTI)..Iio Yla TI)V onolo anoKa9foTOloi 1) 100ppO
rna TTPOKUTTTEI ono Tl'l AUoll Tlle;: E~loliloE W e;:
9WPIO~OU , ou~6v1 TO ETTlT6KIO Tr)<; Xwpo<; KOHl
(I + [0,144 + 0.02])
=(I + 0,04) .NVII/

-- - => x = NV9,82 8/ .
x
To NoValue avoTIIJ~9I1K E KOTa 2% TTEpfTTOU, 600 KOI I) au~'1o'1 TOU ETTlTOKfou TOU .
nEpiTTTWOrr 21"1. H E.K. T. OU~d:VEI TO ETTiTOKIO TaU EUPW KOla 2%, EVW I) KEVTPIK~ Tpam:~O Tr")e;: Utopia
OU~dVEI TO ETTnOKIO KOla 0,5%. H OVOIJEVOjJEVI) looTllJfa ~EV aAA6~EI KOJ TTOAI. H 100Tl)..lla Yla TI)V 0
noio anOKo9ioTOTOI fllCOPPOTTio npOKumEI OTTO Til AUOil Tile;: E~IOWOEW<;
NVII/
(I + [0,144 + 0,005]) = (I + [0.04 + 0,02])'--- => x = NVI O,148 / .
x
To Euplil OVOTI)..I~e'1KE tvavTI TOU NoValue KOla 1,48%, 600 TTEpfTTOU KOI I)
TWV ETTlTOKiwv TOU EUpliJ KGI TOU NoValue.
~Io<popd
OTl<;
OU~~OEI<;
nEpfmwOIl 3r]. no KOTTOIO Mya, 0 OTToio<; 6EV EIvOI TOU lTOpOVTOe;:. 01 TTEV6uTe;: OAAO~OUV TI<;
TOUe;:: npoa6oKouv 6TI TO NoValue
EivOi ao6EvtoTEPO oro jJtM ov alT6 OTi ova~Ev6
Tav IJXPI TWpO . rUYKEKp1IJtvo , r") OVOIJEVO\JEVIlIOOTllJfO OAA6~EI OE E/ S/i I = NV II,5/f, )..IE OUVTTEla 11
ovoIJEv6IJ EVI) unoTi)..ltlol) va OU~1l6Ef ana 10% OE 15%.
E6v 11 KEVTPIK~ TpaTTC~O Tr")e;: Utopia ~EV OU~~OCI TO ETTnOKIO, TO NoValue 60 unOTIIJ'l6Ei KOla
5% (= 15% - 10%) TTEpiTTOU . AUT6 npOKuTTTEI OTTO TI) AlJor") Ttll)" E~ lowcrEWI)"
eo
npoo~oKfEe;:
(I + 0,144) = (I + 0,04) NV II ,5 / => x = N VIO,45455 / .

x
no
va ~r") V UTTOTII..I1")8Ef TO NoVa lue, I") K CVT PIK~ Tp6TTC~cr nptTTEI va ou~~m:l TO ETTnoKlo K01<l 5%
(= 15%- 10%) TTEpiTTOU. AUTO TTpOKumCI OTTO Til AUOI") TI") l)" E~IOWOEWI)"
.
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pa iJ t~V tE,ooo IOlWTlKWV y xwpiwv K'i'aAa(wv Yla T~ xp~~aTOoOt~a~ olE9vwv l l'VOU
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va'i'0PIK6. ~ T~ Luv8~~ Iaoouva~ia<; TWV E1tlTOKiwv Kat TI<; pot<; TWV OlE9vwv rrEVOUTl
KWV Kq>aAaiwv.
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KOcrtOU<; cruVUAWYOOV, [in: Olav ElapXOVtm to. K<j>UAUlo. (itT) xwpo. tiu: Olav E~t:pxovtQl.
Ito. nupa.bElYllo., Eva 1tooocr-ro nov ~tv{j)V KEc.paAa.tWV to. arrola t1aEPXOVrUl aT" Xmpa ym
ErrEVOUat<; ~IKpOTp~S ol6.pKta<; tOU EVO<; t TOU<; m
p6.AAtTat
va KaTaTi9Etat <JT~V K
VTP1K~ Tp6.rr~a Xwp(<; T6KO. 'ETat, ~OVO tva ~t po<; TOU apXLKOU K'i'aAa(ou ~1topd va
1Ivou9i Kat VA etl KU1tOlU u1IooQa'l. !U; U7tOtEAGllo., ,.U:UilVE'Wt TJ auvoA1KTt 0.1(6000",.,
tOW ~tv(j)v
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(JtT\
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aouvatf:{ to KiVlltPO ETrev
xwpo. Kal, 00<; D.n01EAGjlU, Kat Ol EtGPote; K<paAu{oov.
o 14.7. IuvaAAa
aTOKoi
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ylc TrW Utopia IOXUOUV 01 OTT,\OUOTUTIKEC; UTTo8toEl<; KOI , crUVETTWC;, Kal 11 cruve~KI1
va~fac; TWV ETTlTOKfwv. H TEAEUrafa i5ivETOI OTTO lllv aVTioTOIXIl Tile; E~lcrWOWC; (14. 6) oXtoll
'EOTW
on
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) (
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(I +I.NJ,, /=
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]
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oJ,Jw<;. va TTPOKOAtO'E:I lO'pO~ TTV~UTlKtiJV Kc<po~aiwv 11 oTToia 90 E.TW va TTPOKOAtO'1 ovaTiJ,Jl1oTl
lOU VOlJfO'IJOTO<; TI1<; xwpo<; ~ KOI lJiwO'Il TWV TTlTOKiwv TI1<;.
npo<; TTiTEU~1l ourtiN TWV oTOXWV, TTI~aAA1 TOV oKo~ou90 O'uvo~~aYlJaTlKO TTPIOPIO'~O OTl<;
IOpO.<; Ktcpo~oiwv: nOOOOTO x TWV EIOPCOVTWV KEcpo~arwv 60 KarOliSoOI aTOKa OTl'IV KEVTPIK~
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TESEi DE rp<.iTTE~E<; T'l<; Utopia.
01 XP'lIJOTOppot<; EVO<; EUPWTTOiou (m:v6uT~ So dvol:
'EaTW, ETTlTTAtOV, OTI f'\
25
ITIY~ri I,
./ METOTpOTT~ AI EUPW OE W, = AI / SI NoValues

./ ATOKr} KOTo8EOll xW, NoVaues OTr}V KEVTPIK~ TpOTTE{O Tile; Utopia
./ KOTOSEOfl ( l -x)W, NoValues Ot l..JTTOPIK~ TpCITTE{a, I-IE ETTITOKIO INVI
rTlY~ri t+l,
./
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OTTO Tr}V qITTOPIKr) TpCrrrE{a
Tr} aTlYI-I~ I TTpoaiSoKO: OTI TO aVOf,jEV0I-IEVO XH'I + ( I - x)(l+ iw.aWI NoVaues 80 OVTIOTOIXOUV OE EU
pw
[xw,
+(I -X}"(I + INV., ).W,]. E,S'+l = [X+(I -x) .(I+ i Nv,f )). E':,T~~~~]] At
riO va EivOI o15lo<popoe; I-I ETO~U 111e; ETTEV5uOEWe; OE NoVa lues KOI OE EUPW, 80 TTPETTEI
[ / NV]
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[x+ (I- x
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.6.E50~ tvwv
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OVWTEPW IOOTr}TO.
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TOU Eyxwpfou ETTlTOKiou , xwpi<; EIOpOE<; ETTEVDUTIKWV KEcpaAoiwv Kol TTiEOr} Ylo ovarij.JI"]OIl TOU vOj.Ji
OJ.JOTOS
nopOTllpEiOTE DE 6n 01 ETTEVOUTtS Tr}S Utopia OEV EXOUV KLvllTPO va ETTEVlSuoouv OE EUptiJ Ko
SOTI, "Aovw TOU U4JI"]"AOTEPOU ETTlTOKiou TI"]S xwpa<;, eo IOXUEI
(l +iNV,I )
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OWOl<; (14 .6) KO' (14.7).
E~I
'Ev8ETO 14.8. ruvaMav~aTlKoi nEplopla~oi Kal AUTovo~ia T~~ NO~la~aTlK~~ nolll

TlK~
01 ouvo"A).,oYl-loTlKoi TTEPIOPIOl-loi ETTITPETTOUV I-lia OXETIK~ oVE~apTllora OTI1 xapo~rt TIlS VOI-lI0I-I0TIKr;<;
TTO"AITIK~S. rTr]V EcpaPI-IOYr) 14.7, ETTITPETTOUV U4Jrt"AoTEpa EVXWPIO ETTlT6KIO Via ETTiTEU~r] TWV OTOXWV
TI"]S, TT-X- , Yl0 TlllJEiwoll TOU TT"A1"]8wPIOI-IOU.
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EVXWPIO Em ToKlo VIO TI"]V ETTiTW~r} TWV OTOXWV TI"]<; OIKOVOl-llK ~~ TTOA ITIK~ <; , TT.X. , Taxun:PI1 ovOmu~ll .
n tpav TWV TTEP10PI0I-I WV 01 oTToiol TTPOKO"Aouv KOOTOS auvoMoywv, uTTapxouv KOI blOIKI']TlKoi
TTEPIOPIOI-Ioi 01 OTloiOI TTPOo!510pf{ouv TTOIOI ETTITPETTCTOI va Eloayouv ~ va E~ay ouv ouva"A."AoVI-I0 OTTO
Trl xwpa, KOI TT6oo .
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TlKWV ETTEV!5UTIKwv KE(,J)OAOiwv. Movo KE(,J)O)"oiwv OXETI~O~t vwv IJE TOV OOVE IOIJO Tl'l~ KU~EPV~OEW~ r'}
KparlKWv EmXElp~OEWV OTO E~WTpI K6. Eov !5EV UTTOPXEI TETOIOe; OOVEIO~6S , So EivOI
n o TTEPIOOOTEPES AETTTOl-ltPEIS, I3AETTET TIS EVOTr}TEC;: 16.2, 16.5 KOI17 .3.
Aa<j)(lAI<Hpo Klvl>uvou.
To
aorp(;).,orpo Klvbvvov (Risk Premium , ~ auv1O~oypaCjl[a RP ) a1l0i;I)~l<iJVl t ou<; 1lV

(1)t<; 1la t OY Kivouvo va J..l'1 v 1tCtpouv to apXIKo tou<; Ktq>CtAUlO KQ{ trlV (lnooo<.J"it TOU, 010
VOlllcrllU 1WU m9UIlOuv, omv A~C,l I) 1ltvouo~ 1OU<;. 0 Kivouvo<; auto<; ~"opd va npo8p
26
xorac a7rO ,~v mSav6,~,a a7rwAiw; OAOU ~

nel;~<;, Kal aVaAut,ac "'~V tq>ap~"Yli 14.8.
E
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.K KO.
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art va EKTTAIlPWOEI TI<; onopptouO'E<; arr6 TIC;: Karaetow; UTTOXPEWOW; Tile;, i5I1Aai5~ , va roue; (TTI
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va TO TTPcJ~EI [ivai 1 - rp = 0, I 0 (10%). H i5EUTEPfl TTtpiTTTWO'Il OVTIOTOIXEf ot mWxuoll. X6plv EUKOAi

DC;: TWV UTTO;'0YIOJ..IWV UTTOTi8ETOI 6n OE aUT~ TrIV TTEpimwO'Il 01 ETTtvOUTic;: m:pll..ltvouv all 60 X600uv
COTW all 01
6Ao TO
KE<POAOIO KOI lOUe;: rOKOUC;-.
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KIQ iN!!.j> 80 m:plJ..Itvouv va EIOTTpa~ouv Til OTIYJ..l~ 1+ 1
(I + i/)W, IJE meaVOrllla rp
o
0,90
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l\a~l3ovovTae;
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no vo (ivai 01 (TTEV15uTte; o15loqlopOl
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aVO)J(Va~EVO
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nOpOrrlP(foT( OTI Drav OU~OV(TOI 1"\ meOVDTIlTO mWXEUO(WC;, 15IlAo15~ IfJ .1, OU~ciV(TOi TO ' NY.I> Ko9we;
'Will i5lm,popci lOU ana TO ETTnOKIO lOU ruptiJ. AUT~ 11 i5loq>opO aTToTrAti TO OOqlaAloTpo KIWUVOU
TTTWXCUO(WC; , yvw crrou ETTicr'1e; KOI we; aocpaAiarpou TT/OTWTlKOU KIV6Uvou.
Em7rAtov, tv AOyw KlVOUVO<; ~nOptl va npoepxual a7rO ,~V mSav6'1]w va ~~V umipXOUV apKt'" <nJvaUawanKU a7roSe~a,a ym ,~ ~tW'P07r~ 'wv xp~).!a,wv owv A~~tl ~
t7rvou c>~, ~E a7rO,eAE,,~a va 7rOpa~Vouv tyKAWplC>~va C>'1]v ~v~ xciJpa yla Kanoto xpo
vIK6 Ola",~~a. l:t aun) ,~v 7rEp lmW~, ' 0 KOc>W, yta wu, tntvOute<; npoepxuat ano w
Ott )'ta auto to Ota.OtllJla lawt; XaaOOVEitEVOUtlKt; BUKalPlEt; UAA06.
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OtO ~AAOV Ot 07r010l ea aq>opouv ne; EKpate; KEcpaAaiwv ano tTl xwpa. TnOLOl 7rEptOpl
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xp~~a,a 'ou<; c>t aUo vO~Ic>).!a.
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yla ,~v a7roo8\~~ ,~<; <nJvS~~<; lc>oouva~ia<; ,wv tnltOKlWV. i\a~pa
vovra<; w; un' OIjlIV, 01 t~lC>ciJa8\<; (14.6) Kat ( 14.7) ypaq>ovrat w<;
Ot avoJtpw
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touvtm aVaAUtlXCt CrIllY E:TCO)..lVll VOtl1tu.
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ltOtAOUV ~a<HKO ()"1)otatlKO twv ()"1)VC1nay~atlKrov KpioEWV. 0a avaAuSouv EVOEMXroS
)l-S to u1t688t'Y).lU Mundell - Fleming, 11 to onoio !l1tOPOUV va E~EtacrtOuv at 7tt1rrmat~
tou.:; eXt !lova ala E1tttOKlU, 01tCDS ~mopi va yiVEt IlE ITJV :Euve~tcl1, UAAcl. Kat <rCllV OlKO
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upw it :, = 0.04 (4%). TO ompaJ..IOTpa Klvl)uvOU Kal p[uOT6T1'lTOC) 1-I'l 6tv, RP = LP = 0, OTTWC;: Kal 6;'0 TO
K0O'111 TTAr1poq)Qp~awe; Kal auvaAAavwv.
naPOTI I"] TOUPKIK~ KEVTPIK~ TpCmE~a TTpOOTTa8Ef va KpaT~O'EI TI"]V IO'OTllJfa O'T08Ep~ Via va aTTO
<pUVEI TI"]V EvraO'l"] TWV ~(51"] U4JI"]Awv TTAI"]8wpIO'TIKWV mEO'EWV (~AtTTETt TI"]V EvoTflra 3.4 "nAfl8wPI
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VTOI va TTOpt:l lJia EK TWV 600 T1IJWV
2000 TAle IJE m8aVOTrjTO
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E,sI+J =
if" S,~I.L + TrH SI--/)/ = 0.9*1000 + 0, 1*2000
rr AI] = T11. 1IDOlE.
ATTo Trj OUVB~Krjlo06uvojJiae;: ETTITOKiwv TTPOKllTTW OTI TO ETTITOKIO Tile; TOUpKIK~e; Aipae; tlVOI
i TA.1 II; i+ (ErSl" } -
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AEiqJEI TrjV TToAmK~ T'1e; ora8Epcre; IOOT1IJioe;.
rUIJ~afvEI , oIJWe;, KOTTOIO ytyovoe; TO oTTolo au~avEI Tflv m8aVOT'1TO 1f" OE 0,2 (KOI IJEIWVEI TI")V
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i T.lJ 'I:I
SI
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aU ~ '1BEI OE
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nOpOTIlPEfoTE Twpa T'1V KUKAIK~ AOYIK~ TWV OUTO-ETTI~E~OIOUjJEVWV TTP00150Klwv UTTOTII.l~OEWe; . 'E
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UTTOTi}J'lOTI TOU VOI-.JiOIJOTOe;. (Eav '1 TTOpOUOO looTllJia UTTOTIIJ'18tf OE .s~ = TA I200/ = E,s,_/. TO ETTIlO
KIO looPPoTTioe; IJm.l.lVTOI O iTA .1= 4% = iE.")'
DlJwe;:, Myw TWV OpVIlTlKWV ETTlTTTWOEWV TOU U4JIlAou TTlTOKiou OTI1V OIKov0l.lia, 01 ayope;:
opXf~ouv va I5lolo8d:voVTol 6TI 11 KEVTPIK~ TpaTT~a 8cr avaYKooTEi va oTT06EX8Ei Tllv UTTOTilJ'1o'1 TOU
VOlJiOIJOTOe;:. AUTO 010 TTOp0(5EIYI..I0 }Joe; IJTOcpp6 ~E TOI OE vta OU~'10'1 T'1e; 7Tu. tQTW OE 0,3, KOI oVTi
OlolX'1lJtiwOll T'le;: 1f" OE 0,7.
ME Trlv OVOlJEV0J.JtV'1100Tl}Jfa TWPO
ErSl"d =
TO amJlTOUIJEVO Yla Til
TTL 5~ r/. L
OIOT~P'1OTl
!fH SI+J.H =
0,7t: 1000 + 0,3t:2000 [TAl ] = Til. 1300/,
Trje; ~~ = TA 10OO/ ETTlTOK10 yiVETOI
ir,u"" if, + (,$/-, - SI)/ SI
0,04 + ( 1300- 1000)/ 1000 = 0,34 i] 34%.
Av }J iTA., = 24% 01 oyopte; tOlVcrv TTl90v6TI1TO 1fH = 0,3, ~E iTA., = 34% 90 olvouv IJEyahUnp'l. EVTEivo
VTOI , IJE 6Mo A6Yla, 01 TTPOOOOKiEe;: '{Ia UTTOTilJrjO''1. 'EOTW, ~OITTOV , on Twpa TO 1fH OU~OVTOI OE 0,4.
To mToKlo yla HI 6IOT~P'1crl"] Tile;: 1000TllJiae;: SI = T/\ I DOOlE au~6vEI at 44%, TO OTToio }JE Til OElpd: TOU
oU~CrvJ TI1V mBaVOT'1TO UTTOTlI.l~O'Ewe;: .
cpauAoe; aUToe;: KUKAOe; EVTEIVO}JEVWV TTpoo60KIWV YIO UTTOTi}J'lOI1 Kal O'u~aVOlJtvwv EmTOKiwv
Sa OTOl..laT~OEI }JOVOV OlOV UTTOTlIJ'18Ei '1 Aipo ... (TTI~E:~OJWVOVTae;: TIe;: OPXIKte;: TTpoo60KfEe;: UTTOll}J~
OEWe;.
28
DTTWl) OVOM!TOI Of'lV v6T'lTO 17.4 ~ LuvoMaYlJalIKEl) KpioIl)". r] aU~r]oll Till) TTl8crvOTIlTOl)
apVI)TIKO TO laO~UYlo 8ETlKWV - apVI)TlKWV TI)l) TTPOOIl"'woW<; Till) KVTPIK~<;
TpaTTt~'lC; OTI)V TTO"'ITIK~ Tr]C; ora8Epcrc; 10OTllJfa<,;. 0 ~E cpau"'oe; KuKAoe; aVTcrvoK)..(i TO on 01 ETTEVOU~
ftc;, avoyvwpf(ovrac; OUT~ TI)V oMay~, au~avouv ll)V TTl8av6TIlra UTTOTlIJri.OEW'-:
UTTOnlJ~Ow<; TTI)PEO~EI
I:TI)V TTpO~Il . OTTOU TO aocpo)..IOTpa KIV~UVOU KOI PUOTOT'lTOe; EiVai 1J11~~.1I10VIKO , 0 cpou"'o<,; KUK"'O<,;
ETTlflVETaI OTT6 lllV aU~1l0~ TOU<'; . KOI roUTO lSUln 01 ETTvlSuTte; yvwpf~ouv TTW<'; O TT(piTTTWOl) UTTOTI
IJ~OEWl) 80 au.~ry8ouv 01 rrU1),"~FJUIqrJTTr~'ai~~ ..RrXti~tproi:rrl I) OIKOVOIJIKI'I KaTOOTOO'l Kat 80
ou~t'}e(i I) TII6aVOTt'}TO va IJl1v TT"''lpw60uv TT"'~PW<; KOI EYKOipwC;. rIO OE TO aocpO"'IOTPO PEUO'TOTfl
TO<';, yvwpj~ouv OTI OE TTEpiTTTWOfl UTTOnlJ~O(We; ([VOl m8av6v va IJllv UTTOPXOUV apKEToi ETTvOUTEe;
~lOT(9E1IJtVOI va ayopdoouv TOUpKIKEe; Mp(C;.
Oe; OTTOTU.EOIJO , '1 OTTOITOUIJEV'1 OU~110'1 TaU mlToKlou, Yla if1 OUYKPOT'1C1''1 Tile; IOOTllJia<,; Of:
K09 KUK"'O, eo Eival U4'Il"'OTPll.
l1Ev (ivai "'OYIKO on 0 avwTtpw cpou)..oe; KUK"'Oe; "'EITOUPYEi TTO"'O VPr'\yopo , IJI1V mpr'\voVTae;
TTo"'M TTEPISWPIO ovn~pdowe; OTIC; ApxtC;; KOI TO OTI orav ~EKlvd. MOKO)..O O'TOIJOTd 1<01 , OUVETTWC;,
11 KO"'UTEPll (TTI)..oy~ , 11 )..ly6TEpO (TTOXe~C;, iowe; EivOi va aCPEeEf TO VDIJIOIJO va UTTOTllJllei;
TIavTw" '1 ClvCllpeC>TJ TWV CI11AOUOTUTlKWV U1!oS ta WV XUP'1 aTle; 01!0[ee; ec,t\xS'1 '1 EVVe~K~
0!:V flETa~UAAt oumaanKU T'1V 1!PO'1Y'1SlaCl aVUAUC>TJ KCIl TCI c , aUTt'le; cru~11pUa~Clm.
14.5 lao~uylO XPlJllaTOolKoVolllKWV I:uvaAAavwv - EmopaaIC;

fta T'1V ClVaAUC>TJ TOU laoi;oriou XP'1~ClTOo\KOVO~tKWV cruvaUaywv SCI xp'1m~01101'19d '1
c ,lawC>TJ (14.1 Oa) ym T'1 Utopia KCIl '1 Ec,iaOla'1 (14.6) ym Ttlv EUpOli;wv'1' 'On taXUEI yw
tllV Utopia So lOXUf:1 KOl Yla 01I0laO~lIotf: J.1tKPTt xwpa 11U tT\V arcola 8EV toX<>ouv at a
11AouaTunKt, u1109tal, T'1, ,v<Yr'1Tae; 14.3. AvnaTOixwe;, on taxu[ ym T'1V Eup",i;wv'1,
So LaxUf:l Kat ym tL~ H.n.A. , to HvwJ.1tvo BaaiAf:lO, tllV lamovia, tllV EApuia, tOV Kava
oa ...
H TW\lC~ T'1, aVaAUaOl, ym T'1V Utopia tX! Ole; est\,. 3eKlvwvw, Cl1!O KaTaaTaG'1
taOppOlItCle;, KaTTJ (14.1 Oa) taXUE!, Kat ~ETa~aAAOVW, ~ia ~OVO flE
WPA'1T~ KaaE q>opa, ym va ElVat Eq>lKT~ '1 aVcIAuC>TJ ''1, axtaOl, atTiou-a110TAta~aToe;,
av'1 U110 S ETCla'1 flTa~OA~ KaStOTa TO ClptOTEPO OKtAO, T'1e; 'c,lawo,w, flEYaAUTPO TOU
O'C,LOU SCI U1!apXt I0POt\ "!:VOUTtKWV KEq>aACli",v aT'1V Utopia, CFU<OP" i . KC/\ ClYTt
aTpO<pWe;.
fm Tt, ~EyaMe; xwp'c;, '1 "XV1K~ aVClAtlaOle; i vCIl '1 iOta, ClAAa XP'1u\~011otEhat '1 .
c,lowC>TJ (14.6)
UTOPIA (KAI 'AMH M IKPEr XOPEr). H auc,~a~ TOU i NF., Sa KaVEt ne; 1!'Vouat, a, No
Value I DKpOEaTEp'e; Kat Sa oO'1y~aEt aE ElapoE, KE<paAaiOlv aT'1V Utopia. AvnOToixwe;,
'1 ClUS'1a'1 TOU 1!\TOKiou TOU upw, T'1e; aVCl~O~Ev'1e; taon~lae; ,8'>1 [NV/E], TOlV aa<pa
AiaTpwv K1VOUVOU Kat PWOTOT'1tae; ~ TOU KOOTOUe; cruvaAAaywv Sa OO'1y~aEt a K
pO Ee;
KE<paAalOlv a1!O T'1V Utopia.
Ot 11poClva<pepSiaee; ~'ta~oAte; cruvO\jl[i;OVTat OT'1 aXEC>TJ (14.11). To lIp6a'1~o +/
mIvOl a1!o KaSe ~ETa~A~T~ 1!poaoLOpli;" T'1V KaTEU8uvC>TJ 1!tOpaaewe; TOU 1!i TOU taoi;u
yiou xp'1~aToo\KoVO~tKWV auvaUaywv. E11ia~" xaptv EUKOAlCle;, 0!:V xp'1m~o11ou:hat 0
OElKTll<; lOU Xpovou, I, 61IOU 8sv EiVat arrOA\)twc; arrapaitlltOC;.
(14.11 )
'Ev9HO 14.9.
napElJl3aa~ O'T~v
Ayopa IuvaMay aro
H E~iawO'I1 (14.11) O'UVOl4'i~EI /5uo aTTo TOUe; TpEIl) TPOTTOUC; \.IE TOUe; oTToioue; 01 Apxte; lJ iae; xwpae;
IJTTOpOUV va TTOptlJ~OUV crTIlv ovapa ouvaMdVIJOTO<;: TO ETTITOKIO Kal TIC; TTpoolSoKiEe; .
Xdplv Tile) OIKovolJfac; TaU KEIIJEVOU, '1 aU~~TIlal1 O'Tld~ETOI 0' TTapEIJ~all TWV Apxwv TI1C; Uto
pia , TTpOKEllJEVOU va OTIlP;~OUV TO UTTO TTiEOf] VIa UTTOTi\.lIlO'l NoValue.
A.A. AVT~OUA.itl0'
29
H TTapt~l3aoll QTTOOKOTTEf OTO va OU~1l8Ei '1 <~TI1011 YIO TO NoValue OTTO TOUt; .TT.VOUTEt;. AUTO
l-JTTopEi va ETTlTEUX8Ei J,JE OU~IlOIl TOU ETTlTOKioU Tile; Xwpoe; ~/Kal CfE. l-lE.TO~oAr) TWV TTpoaOOKIWv Via Til
l-lE.AAOVTlK~ lOOTIl-lia E.TTI TO 8ETlKOTEPOV Via TO VOl-llOIJO. napaOTOnKa, IJE iw .l t ~/KaJ E,sH [NV/E}.l..
KdTToioi OTTO TOUt; TToAUTTA'18E.ie; nOpaYOVTEe; 01 onoiOll-JTTOpoUV va EnllPEOcrOUV ne; npocrtjoKi
Et; avoAUOVTOI KOTwn':pw. H napEIJj)oal1 TWV APXwv OTTOOKOTTEi OTOV EnI1PEOOJ,.JO npoe; TIlV ElT18u
IJIlT~ KOTEU9UVOfl TWV nopOVOVTWV OUTWV. XOPOKTIlPlonKO: EiVOI TO lTapomiYIJOTo TOU Ev9tTOU
14.11.
ndVTWt;, IllTOpEJ.Jj)aOI1 80 EX! IJEvoMTEPIl TTlSOVOTIlTO E.TTlTuXioe; Eav E.fvaJ OUVTOVIOIJEVI1. ru
YKEKpIIJEVa, 11 IJEiWOI'l TWV ETTlTOKiwv TOU wpw So OUJ.J~OMEI OTllv Evioxuoll TOU NoValue. EnrOlle;,
lJio avoKolvwol1 TI1t; EKT on ElTISUIJEi Eva IOXUPOTEPO NoVarue au~6:vEl Tllv m90voTIlTO va Enl1pw
mouv OJ npootjoKIEt; lTpOe; Tllv E1TI8u1J11Tr) KOTu8uvol1 .
o TpiTOt; TpOnOe; aVOqlEpE.TOI OTrlV aJ,JE.of'l OUIJI-lETOX~ OTI1V ovapa ouvoAAoVIJOTOe;. Eelv OJ APXEt; (1TI
SUIJOUV va UlTOOT'1pf~ouv TO UTTO TT1EOll urrOTltJ~OEWe; VOI-lIO)JO TOUe;, lTwAoOv ~t va VOl-lfOJ,JOTO OTTO
TO ouvaAAoVtJonKO TOUe; an08EJ..!OTO K01 oyopd:<OUV TO EVXWPIO vOl-lrolJo . Au~civouv ETOI Til <~TJlOI1
TOU EVxwpiou VOJ,JiOj..lOTOe;. AVTloTOiXwe; , E.elV StAouv va j..lE.I!.i.mouv Tllv lTiEOIl y,a avaTij..lIlO~ TOU, lTW
Aouv E.VXWPIO VOl-lJoJ,Jo KOI avopo<ouv ~tvo .
I\ovw TaU I-lEVciAou 0VJ(OU ouvaAAovwv OTIlv aVopa ouvaAAaVj,JOTOS, !-lio TETOIO nopE!-lpaOll
r5Ev J..!nopEi va Eival OTTOTEAEOIJOTlK~ vro lToM. ITrlV lTPWTIl m::pflTTwOIl, oPV6 - i] - vp~vopa , KGI
J,JaAAov YPIlYopa, TO ouvoMaYIJOTlKO: OTTOStj,JOTO So E~ovTAIlSOUV. ITr] r5EUTEPr] lTEpilTTWO'1, TO 0'1
j,JOOlOVO)JIKO KOOTOe; TWV ouva,\AoYJ,JoTIKWV OTT08qJOTWV (j)" ETTE TE OXEnKc Tllv EVOTIlTO 17.3) So 0
r5rWf\OEI OE TE.pI-lOnO!-lO Tile; nopq.lpOOE.WS
EYPOZONH (KAI AMEr MErAAEr )(nPEr). H aV1:(nOlX~ Ei;,aw<TIl Yla 1~V Eupw~w~ Elvat
(14.12)
TTapOflolE<; ax"aE" flE n <; (I!I. II) Kat (14.12) fl1<OPOUV va amoAoy~eOUV yta ppaXUITpo
e"'flE<; poE<; aXHtK<; flE EITEVOUa"s aE flHOX"S Kat 0floAoya. ME flla Olacpopa: AV1i 1WV
YVWOTWV 1tlTOKlroV, npbrl va xpllm~on:oI1160uv 01 aV1:l01:OtXS; ava~EV6J.JEVES a1'[086oH~,
E';;
Kat
E,i: (E~"'WaElS [14.1a] Kat [14.2a]).
'Ev9uo 14.10. lao lIVIO Xp
OTOOIKOVO IKWV
IuvaAAa WV KGIIUOTI iE
LTO OUTPO 1..1106 Tile; 6EKOETiae; TaU 1990, 01 /JEyaAE.e; OlTOtjOOEIe; OTO XPIlj,JOTlOT~PIO Tile; NEae; Yop
KIlS rrp0O'IlAKUOV TToM a ElT(VOUnKO KEqlOAOIO OTT6 TIlV EupWlT'1. 01 OXETIKte; tjE pOEe; ElTEVr5UTIKWV
KEcpaAofwv UlTEP-KOAUlTTOV TO TEpaOnO V.AEI~)JO TOU loo<uyiou TPEXOUOWV OUVo""oyWV TWV
H.n.A , IJE OlTOTtAEOIJO TO lool;uVIO lTA'1PWIJWV Til':; xwpoe; va VfVETOI rrAOVOOlJOTIKO KOI TO ooJ..6~o
va OVOTlJ..lOTOI tvovn TOU EUpW.
rTIe; apxte; Tile; r5EKOE.Tioe; TOU 2000, 01 oyopte; KUj)EPVIlTlKWV 01J0A6vwv TWV H.n .A alTO Tie; KE
VTpIKte; TpCrrT<Ee; Hle; Kivas KOI 6""wv AO"IOTlKWV xwpwv OVTlKoTtoTlloav Tie; ItjlWTlKEe; mEv6uOEIe; OE
)JETOXES we; '1 J(UPIQ OUVIaTWOO TOU lTAEOVOOJ,JOTOS TOU loo<uyiou XPIlJ..!OT001KOVOj,JIKWV ouvoMoywv
TWV H.n.A. OJ KEVTPIKt<; Tp6lTE~Ee; aUTwv TWV xwpwv po~6r]crav OTllv OlOTIlPI101l Tlle; looTlj..liae; TOU
OoAopfou, lTOpd TO TEpciOTIO tAAEllJl-lO TOU loo<uyfou TPEXOUOWV ouvoHaywv.
OlTOrO ElpwvEfa T'1e; TUXIle; ! 01 TTTwxte; XWpEe; OTl1pr<OUV TO VOI-IIO)JO Tile; lTAOU010TEPr]S KOI 1
axupoTEPIle; xwpa<; TOU K6oJ..lou.
KOI , J..IaA.loTO, OE J,Jio KOTaOTOO'l looppolTiae; TPOJ..l0U ! rTr] OUYKEKPIj..lEVrj oUVKupio, 01 lTTW
xte; XWpEe;, EXOVTOe; OUOOWpElHJEI TEpOono ouvoMaY)JonKo oTT09tJ..lQm OE i5oA6pla, r5ltTP(XaV TOV
Kivtjuvo IJEyoAwv apvr]TIKWV OlT0r500EWV OE m:pilTTWOIl ulTOTlJ.J~aEWe; TOU 6oAapiou. E1TInAtov, OE
J..!fa TETOIO lTEpiTTTWOIl, KIVOUVEUE KOI Il OIKOVOIJIKr'j TOUS avdTTTu~r] OlTO TIlv avoI-lEV0I-lEv'1 Mvw Tr]<;
UnOT'J..I~OEWe; J,JEiwO"T1 TWV E~aywvwv TOUe; lTpot; TIe; H.n.A. . no lTE.PIOOOTPES AElTTOJ..ltpEIEe;, j)AtrrETE
TIlv vOT'1TO 17.2 " llIE8v~ EnEVOUTtKO KElpoAOIO - .6.IAr']I-l~..IOTO ".
(j\)VO'l"~El M ills EmopllaEl<; 010 ,ao~uylo xpTlPa100lKoVOfllKWV auvaA
l.aywv ~ia<; fllKP~<; xwpas. EV1CtaaOV1:at a EIT!1l KilplES Ka1~yop'ES Kat ITapo uaui~ov!m
rrapaa"'"KIl 010 axiwa 14.2.
H a),.<TIl (14.1 I)
30
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DO 090D9m n9 lD131)rin903l!A D)rinoDl l103ri9A3riDOD Allw lDMod;;dmOD )3)~ogoodl! 10
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EmnAEOV, 1tCtVTa
8a E~cpavU;ovml Kat VEOI. H OlKOVO~IK~ ~w~ EXEI wyaA~ cpavmClia ... To 8ETlKO EiVQl on
omv KimOtos TETO IOS 1[apaYffiv apXlaEI va AelTOllPYE~ ~ E1[[Spaa~ TOll YlVETQl aWCla a
VTIA~m~ .
"Ev9ETO 14.11 . O'KOVO 'K " .Il.nrAw oTia - Plaza & Louvre Accords
H OIKOVOI-lIK~ olTTAw l-laTio, KOI 11 OUV OUT~ 6IE 9v~ e; GUvEPvooia, I-ITTOPEi va ETTIlPEaoEI Tie; TTpoo50KiE e;
VIO Til cruvoAAoVl-laTlK~ 100TIl-iia KOI , I-ltow aUTWV, Kal T'1V ililo T'1V 10OTll-lio.
~UO XOPOI<:Tt)PIOTIKcl TTopa6fVlJora OTTOTEA ouv 01 oUI-IIPWviEe; OTO ::EVOI)0XEio nAa~o Tile; Ntoe;
Y6pK~"
22l: ETTTE~~piou 1985, KOI "TO /\ou~pO , "", 22 C!l E ~pouapiou 1987.
I:XE TIKcl I-IE TO IJOKPOOIKOVOIJIKO TTEplllaAAov Tile; ETTOx~e; EKEivIle;, OTTo TO 1981 TO 60Aapi0 ap
XIOE IJIO IJOKpO: TTEpiol)o OvarllJ~OEWe; (IlAtrn:TE TO 0Xr')IJO 13.1), MtXPI TOV <t>EPPOUOPIO 1985, OTOV
t<p90oE OTO OVWTOTO oTJI-IEfo TOU , :IXE ovaTlI-ITJeEf KOtO 50% TTEpfTTOU Evovn TWV KUpiwv VOIJIOIJOTWV.
I:TIe; H.n .A., 11 OVOTfIJIlOT1IJEiwvE Tr)V OVTOVWVIOTIKOTIlTO TWV EVxwpfwv TTP0l"OVTWV , KOI 61l1J10upvou
OE TPI~ tS IJE TOUe; IJTTOPIKOUS rafpoue; TIlS xwpoS KOI 1511 T'lV laTTwvia. I:ne; aAAES !3IOIJI)XOvIKte;; xw
PEC;;, 11 o u oTOAnK~ VO I-IIOlJarIK~ TToAITIKr'j Via va TTEPIOPIOTEi 'l UTTOTilJllOIl TWV V0I-IIOIJOTWV TOUe; TTI)
pta~E opV'lnKa TIlV 01KOVOl-ll KD ovamu~'l . EmTTAtov, r'jrav 61clXU T'l Kalil TTmofellG'l OTI 11 clv060e;
TOU 60Aapiou rlTOV OTTOTEAEOIJO IPOUOKOC;: GTIlV avopa cruvaAMVI-IOToe;.
METd Til ouvdvTIlOl'] OTO ~v060XEfo nAo~o , 01 uTToupvof OIKOVOIJIKWV TWV TTtvT I-IVOAU TPWV
!3101J'lXOVIKWV xwpwv (G-5: H,n .A , Imrwvio, ~. rPlJovio , roAAio KOI H.B.) ~t6woov I-l io ovoKoi
vwoll OTi eo TTOPEVtpOlvOV oTT6 KOIVOU OTIlV Ovopa ouvoAAciVI-lOTOe; Via va TTPOKOAtO'ou v UTTOTil-lllO'Il
TaU 60Aopfou. limv, OTTWe; EK TWV TTpaVIJOTWV TTlOTOTTOIEiTOI , lJio o~16TT1CiIl ovoKoivWOIl. 01 TTpOO
l5oKiEe; VIO IJEAAOVTI K ~ UTTOTiIJIlOIl TaU l5oAapiou 06~VIlO'ov OE mxuTOTIl mwO'Il TOU.
I:T'l ouvclVT'lOil OTO 1\0u!3po, onlv oTToia oUIJIJTiXE ETTITTMov KOI 0 Kovo6oc;, TO TTp6PArwo
f)rav 610q>OPTlK6: I\ovw Tile; I-IVaAI']e; mwowe; TOU l5oAapiou, 01 EUpWTTO'(Kte; XWpEe;; TTP OP"'l I-lOTI~o
VTQV Via T'lV OVTOVWVlOTIKOTIlTO TWV TTpoToVTWV TOUS. I:UlJqlWvIlO'ov, AOlTTov , va oUVPVOOTOUV VIO
TIlV oT09pOTTOf'l0'l TWV OVOIJOO'TIKwv looTII..miJv aTO TOT uTTciPXOVTO ETTiTTEOO. To OTTOTEAtolJOTO
IPOfVOVTOI O'TO aX~lJo 13.1.
"n,
01 avwTipw 15uo aUIJIPWVfEe; orroTEAouv TTopo6EiVIJOTO U4JIlA~e; OI K OVOIJIK~C;; 61TTAw1JOTioc;: OTTOU 11 61

9v~C;; ouvpvooio ETTIlPtooE T600 TToM TIS TTpoo60KiS WOTE va TTlTEUx9Ei a OTOxOe; Via TIC;; 100TIIJI
".
,.
DlJwe;;. 11 6ITTAWIJoTio l)v j30rt8d TTOVTO , AKOI-I'l KOI lJio I)r'jAwail 0PKEi VIO va TTPOKOAtOEI OVETT19UIJ'lTEC; E~Ai~IS. AKOAou80uv l5uo O'XETIKO TTopol51VIJOTO TO oTTofa EXO UV KmaVPOIPEf OTIl OUV
XPOVIl XPIlIJOTOOIKoVOIJIK~ 10TOpla. KOI TO 6uo OVQ(ptpoVTal OTO H.B..
To TTPWTO Eival OTTO Hlv ETTOX~ TaU O'UO'T~IJOTOe; 'B retton Woods'. I:TIll5KoETfo TaU 1960, TO
H.B. IX: MEiIJIJOTO OTO IOO<UYIO TPXOUOWV ouvoAAovwv. ME Tie; KUP[pVr'jOle; TI']t; xwpoe; va lil
OTd~ou v va <poPI-I000Uv ouaroATlKr'j 61l1-l0010VOIJIKr'j TToAITIKrl VIO IJEiwor'] TaUS (~r. E TTn TOV TTivo Ka
10.4), I'] olaT~Plloll TrtC; OTo8EpdC; IO'oTllJiac; ~OO'I~OTOV 0' OdVEIO oTT6 TO aNT KOI OE 61ev~ UTTOOT~
PI~Il OTOV, oIJWC;;, a roAAoC;; UTTOUPY0C;: ~WT EP IKWV 61OTUTTWOE OIJ<PI~OAfEC;; ylO Til crro8EPOTrtTO T'le;
OTEpAivoC;;, AOVw Tilt; OTTpo8ulJioe;; Tile;; BpnOVIKr'je; Kuj3EPVr'jOEWC;; va AOPI TO oTTopoiTIlTO lilOp8wTlKO
TWV EAAEIIJI-IOTWV IJtTPO, 01 oyoPEC; apXloov va olJq:IlPdAAouv VIO T'lV oUVEXIOil Tile; 6lE8vous UTTOOTIl
pi~EWe;. 01 TTPOOI)OKiES UTTOnlJrl0WC;; EVTOeilKov KOI, UTTOKUTTTOVTOS oTO OVOTTOIPEUKTO (<p0PIJOVr']
14 .9), 11 O'TpMvo UTTOTIIJr']9IlKE KOT017% OTIS 18 NOEI-I~piou 1967.
To 6EUTEPO TTopo5EIYIJ0 EivOi TTEploaonpo TTpompoTo, OTTO T'l OKO[TiO TOU 1990. Mlo l)~Awort
TOU TOTE liIOIKrtTr'j lTle; rPIJOVIKr')C; KVTP1Kr')S TpOTTt~TJe; OTi I)EV I-ITTOpOUoOV va OTTOKAIOTOUV UTTOTi
I-II']O'Ie; oTOV TOTE EUPWTTOi"KO M'lXOVIOI-iO IuvaMoVI-l0TIKWV IOOTIIJI WV (MIl), OTTOTtAEOE TO t VOUOIJO
Via TIlV TEAIK~ ETTf9EOll TWV KEp60O'KOTTWV, aTToTEAEol-io Trlt; oTTolat; ~TOV 11 t~olioc;; Tile; O'TEpAivoe;
OTT6 TOV MD O'Tle; 16 I:rnTIJ/3pfou 1992. nEpIO'ooTP<; AETTTOlJtpIEe; aTO tveETO 16..4 "George So
ros KOIIl Kploll TTJe; ITpAivoe; TOV I Emtl-li3Plo 1992".
O L napaYOVTES "TO "x~~a 14.2, Ot o1[oio L E1[~pEa(ouv ns npoaSoKlE<; Yla n<; mJvaUay
~anKts laOTL~U:S, O";(ETil;oVTat ~E 8E~AIWS~ O'KovollIKa ~ EYt8~ . napa mina, aE 1[OA~
XEPl1I(6)O"El<;' Kat b'l O"E nEp l1t'[o"El~ O"uvaAA.a.y~a'tlKrov Kpi.O"EWV, 8'l~lO\)pyd'tat 11 E\trU1I(O
a~ on at rrpoCl80KU:<; Clx~~aTi(ovTat au8aipEta. [1<; AOYIKO mJ~rrtpaa~a, ym T~V 1[poam
<ria T~S SlE8VODS OtKovo~ias an6 T~V L810Tporr~ mJ~1[EpI'POpa TffiV ayopwv, rrpOTElVEWI ~
A~tV~ IlttPffiv y Hl ~dffi~ lffiV E1[l1l1WaEffiV l ffiV IlETaPOAWV lffiV 1[pOaSOKlwv. E1[ElS~, EV
1tPOKtIlEv111tPt1I'lOOO"I, 01 1Ip omSoKiE~ AEt'tOupyouv IlEO"(() TON powv OlESvWV E1tEVOUnKWv

KE<pUAOiwv, np01"ElVE1"at 11 eEmna'l1IEptOplO"IlWV aT'lv Kiv11a~ tOU~.
A.A A V"COUAlho,
32
'[aOlS, yta K(mOtoUS aUous AOyOUS, va s,KaLOAoYStcat ~ SntDoA~ GtlVaMawanKOlV

nSptoptGflWv. 'OXI, OflOlS, yta au,ov ,ov AOyo Kat wutO ston olnpoasOK1<;, napa ns ns
pi tOU avtt8EWu sKnfl~a",;, 1t~psa~ovtaL allo m 8flAIWs~ OIKovofllKa flEYE8~. r,a tie;
1!POc>bOKlEe; U1l0nfl~aWe; tGXUEt ~ P~"'l L'-EY ullapxa Ka1lVOe; xwpie; CPWtlcl.
XprlllaTOOrKovojJrK~
M6AuVIJ'l (Contagion).
XP~I,/a,OOIKOVOIHK~ Jl6AVVI1'~
(Contagion) avacpEpUat
GT~
fluiI50"'l OtKovofllKWV su
GKOAUOVano J.lia xwpa a a~ J.lE tl4 07tOlE<;! m8av6v, va J.lllv EXDDv
OlKOV0J.ltKOU<; ~
cIA&
AOUe; bEC>flOue;. Ot bEC>floi avacpEpoV1al ato tC>O~uyto tpsxouawv GUvaUaywv, 01lWS, yta
napclbaYfla flEYaAo Sfl1l0PtO flSWSu twv 1IT\PW~ofltvOlv XolpWV ~ KOtVEe; ayopte; yta ta
EsaywytKa llpolovta tOUe;, mo IC>O~UYtO xp~flatOOtKovOfl'KWV GtlvaUaywv, Ka8 we; Kat c>S
1!OAlttKOUe; sEaflOUC;.
H miac>~ eLVaL mte; avall,uaC>0flEYEe; xWpEe;, GU~8we; fllKpte; aE OIKOVOfllKO fl EyE
80C;. 0, aU;(VEe; aVQ(I'OpC; aE DIOfl~xavIKte; XWpEe;, fllKpEe; Kat flEYclAEe;, a1l0HAOUV tvbaSll
Kat Ullv8Ufll"'l on Kaflia xwpa bEY EXEt avoaia C>to U1!O au<;~,~c>~ sisoC; floAtiVC>SOle;.
H flOAuVa'l S1llSpcl fltaw SUo KUpiOle; KavaAlwv: tWV llpOaSOKlwv y ,a avwYOlvlmt~
ullotifl~"'l Kat to aC>cpaAlmpo KIVSUVOU. AVaAUTtKOlpa, ~ u1l0,ifl~C>~ lOU VOfliC>flawe;
fliae; xwpae; s'lfltOUpysi aV1aywVtc>nK6 llAEovtKt'lfla y,a m 1!po'iovm ,~e; aTte; blE8vsiS a
yopte;. Au,o S~flloupysi Kiv'ltpO yta tpitEe; XWpEe;, Ot 01l0iEe; Esayouv napoflola llp0'iovta
J.lE t'1v EV A6yw xwpu, va un:otl\..l~aouv to v0J.ll(j!.ui lOUe;.
AXO)ll1 Kat ay 01 Apxtc.; tWV tpitrov xcopciJv 6\1 EXDDY xUJ.lla tetOLO np68EO"ll, OL 61
8vde; ayoptc;, EllaS~ S,aDAtllouv to Kiv'l'PO Kat WI' a;(UIKO 1lElpaC>flo, ausitvouv t'lv 1ll
8avo,~ta u1l0Ttfl~aEWe; tOUe; vOfliC>flaWe;. Ot Apxte; ,wv ,phwv XolPWV ~ 8a 1tttPE'I'OUV
IllY U1tOttJ.lll(Hh ~
CJUVE1tOYOVtUI Yla
So. avaYKacrrouv va eXDDY U'VTlA,OtEpa EYXOOplO. E1tltOKta,

Illv OIKOV0J.l1K1l av6.1ttu~'l.
J.lE
Ot1 auto.
'Htav 'l fl1lElpia t'le; Kivae; mov allo~xo ,wv auvaUaYflanKwv Kpic>swv 'wv xwpwv
N.A. Aaiae; 10 SUlPO Esafl~vo ,ou 1997.
H flOAUVC>'l fliaw tWV llpocrSOKtWV U1l0Ttfl~C>EWC; flllopd va AEltOupy~aEl Kat xwpie;
10 "'OIXEio t~e; avWYWVtGTtKo''ltae;. Et'lv Kpic>'l ,ou EUpW1!a'iKou M~xavtGflou EuvaA
AaYflaTtKWV [C>OTtfltWv, to KClAOKaipt wu 1992, 01 EY,SIVOflEYSS aflCPtDoAie; yta ''lv ruo
Swa~ t~e; llpocrlla8dae; Elaaywy~e; ,ou supw aUS'las n c; llPOc>SOKu:e; yID ullotifl'lC>'1 'wv
'~e;
V0J.llU\lCttWV '[lOV xroprov - J.lEAWV tvuvn tOu r EpJ.lCtV1KOlJ ~l6.PKOU. B)J;rr'r8 crXEtlKU !T'\
cru
V1ofl~
avacpopa C>'O tv8no 14.11 , Kat Asmofltp"se; a10 tvSno 16.4 "ES1a!;ovtae; ,~v
ASlO1!lC>tla Evoe; Eum~fla1Oe; Target Zone".
'Oc>ov ucpopa mo ac>cpuAlc>tpO KIVSUVOU, '1 aSuvaflla ESU1!'1p1T)aSOl<; tOlv xpsUJv fllae;
xwpae;, aKofl~ Kal flIKp~e; as OIKOVOfllKO flEySSOC;, flllOPSl va E1J:'lPScla" apv'1TtK<l ,oue; S,
s8vEie; SllsvSu,te;: Na ,oue; Kavel va ava8wp~aouv tle; EKtlfl~C>ElC; 1ODe; ylQ t'lv m8avOt'l
ta "'WxeUaEOle; Kat <lA).,wV xwPWV - XPwa,illv, flE a1!O,tAafla va i;'1'OUV U'l''1A01Epa a
acpaAIC>tpO KtVSuvou aKOfl'l Kat allo xwpse; 01 01!Ole; SEY EXOUV SWC>El ,~v llapafltKp~ tv
SEtS'l y,a tttOlEe; SuaKOAlee; Kat OUtE 'x0UV 10V llapafllKpo SWfl0/C>Xta'l flS t'lv ntWXeU
c>aau xwpa.
XapaK1~pIC>TtK<l Eival m llapaSsiYflata C>wv lliVaKa 14.2. H aus~c>'1toU aC>cpaAi
'npou KIVSUVOU llsplypacpstat fIE toy opo "Msiw"'l t~e; TIpoota8tawe; yw AV<lA'1'1''l Klv
Suvou" ("Global Reduction ill Appetite for Risk").
33
~I'
niVOKOC; 14.2. XP'l/JOTOOIKOVO/JIKf] M6Auvar] - Kav6:A.lo

napa<5EiYj.JaTo OTTO TIC; KpiaEI C; r'lC; .6.E:Konfac; TOU 1990
E~TT6plo ~E
KOlvt<;;
Tpiw;
XWptC;
APXIKO
KpfOI1
n'>"I1VEicro
Xwpa
PwO'roTIlTO all<;
XPIlIJOTOyopt<;; Tile:
Kcvoi nlOTllntc;
MtiWOIl Tile:
np06108tO/:u,x;: VIa
Avci:M}tp'l KJv6Uvou
Xwpo<;
~~, AEKtIJPPIOC; 1994
ApytVTIVr)
--
MIKpO
BpO\IAio
--
MIKpO
I NOI , MtKP~ 'EK8wf'j I Xa~~Ni

I Nm, MII(p~ 'Et<9Eol') Y"'~A~
MIKpr), TOV lavoudplo
1995
Tauf.av51l, [OUAIOC; 1997
XOVYK KOVYK
--
--
Iv60vr)oia
MOAoloia
lIAlTmivt<;
MIKpO
Mn<~_
MIKpO
N. KOPEO
OX'
Y"'~A~
NOI , MErp!O 'EKaE~ XOIJIlAr)
Mn<pO
MtYOAO
MtTPIO
OX'
Mtrpl0
NOI, MEY OArl 'EK8Ort
Mtrplo
OX'
Y"'~ A~
-
OX'
-
Y"'~A~
NOI, Mtrplo 'EK8tol1
Mtrplo
- _-_-.
L-Xa~l]A~
__
MI KP~, aMd lTOpoOlK."

TOV Mcl"io 1997
Pwaia, AUYOUOT0C; 1998

Bpa\l)Jo
XOVYK
KovYK
ME9KO
OX'
ME:YOA rl, TOV AUYO UOTO

KOI ItmtlJ)3plO 1998
Mtrplo TTPOC; Y4lllNl
I:tllJ(lWOE1C;.
1. nrw~: World Economic Outlook, llrE8vtc; NOfJro~oTII(6 TOfJlO (llEKt fJ~prOC; 2001)
2. H Pf:UOlOTt1TO ~(TpiTOI w< TTOOO0l6 HlC; o~io~ TWV XOpTOlUAoKiwv TWV 'Hedge Funds'
6u8:i Oll') XWpa.
un
)( (1./1
TO
oTToio
dX m;v
DAtov XapaKTDPlCHlKO Eivat TO lIap6.sely~a T~<; lITWXEUaEW<; TD<; Pwaia<; tOV Auyouaw
1998. DpoKnAaE aU~D<f1) tau acr<paAienpou KtVOUVOU aE XciJPE<;, OlIw<;, D BpaSlAia, TO
MESlKO Kat to XOVYK - KOVYK. Kat at TpEi<; XciJP E<; OV EXOUVKOlVa mivopa, OUtE ppiaKo
VTat "'DV iOla YEwypa<PlK~ 7rEPlOX~ ~E T~V Pwaia, ciJenE va qlOPCLtat KavEi<; on 7rOAmK~
aatnaEla aE aun'!v, ).Oyw tD<; OlKOVOfUKTt<; KpiaEw<;, aa tl<; E1I11PEasE. 11v EXOUV Kat E~lIO
PlKOU<; ocr~OU<;, ciJ<ITE va qlOP 6.Tat KaVE[<; on D Kp ia~ TD<; Pwaia<; ea T~ ElIDP,aSE ~taw
TOU E~7rOPlKOU KavaAlou, O~AaOr1, xa~DAOt'PWV E~aywyciJv at 07rOiE<; aa 7r~pEaSav apv~
nKn tDV atKOVO~lKit tou<; avn1ItlJSD Kat tDVOUvatOtDta E~u7rDPEtr1a Ew<; tWV XPEciJv tOUt;.
Em7rAtov, Ol tpEi<; XciJ PE<; ev EiXav KO LVOU <; E~7rOPlKOU<; Etaipou<;, tpiTE<; XciJP E<;, ~,
crw 1'WV onolwv Sa nllPclSOVtav IlIlEcrW<; ano tl1v Kpicr'l t11<; PooO'ia<;. Ow Kat K01VOU<;
lUaTeotE<; Ol o7roioc, Ex0Vla<; u7roenEi SDfl1s<; <TI'1 Pwaia, aa 7rEptKOmav tD xp~ flatOeOtD
a~ tWV V AOYW xwpciJv. Autit ~ 7rEptKOmj, to tcroouv a~o TD<; EKPO~<; KE<pa).aiwv, Sa ava
YKaSE T~ V ).Oyw XciJPE<; va ausitaouv Ta EmtOKlo. TOU<;. EmlIAEOV, oc CUO alIa n <; tPELs,
BpaStAia Ka, XOVYK - KO VYK, Eixav U'l"IA~ pEUatOTDta.
Dapo).a aUta, Kal Ot tpEi<; ElIDPEaaT~KaV aPVDnKa, fl,aw tOU U'l'~AOT'POU acr<paAi
crtpou KlVOUVOU.
Avaou(vuOVtru; tllV Otax,povlK6tll1'a tOU q>atVOIlVOU, otav 11 tpa1,[EStK~ KPtO'11 crtllv
Auatpia ~Eta06a~KE en'lv fEPflavia tDV lIEpiooo TD<; flEynA~<; UCPE<lEW<; WAtlIEtE TO tvaE
to 6.8 "H MEyaAD I1lESvit<; Y CPE<lD tD<; I1EKaEtia<; TaU 193 0" Kat tDV U7rO-vOtDta "H Ta
paXciJoD<; DEpioeo<; tOU MEaOlroAtflou, 19 19 - 1939" <TIDV VOtDta 13.6), fEPflavoi laU
VOVt<; otarunwvav tllV EKtlllllO'11 Ott at otSvEi<; 1tEYOUtE<; OEY Ilnopoucrav va ~xwpicrouv
to BEpoAlvo alIa t~ BU'VVD Kat tD Bouoalr'aTD. E<;itVla xpovla apyoTEpa, atDv KpiaD TOU
NlLI to 1992, LouDOO( taU VOVl<;, UlIO tDV lrfEml tWV olEavciJv E7rVeuTciJv flEtn t~V Kpiml
crtll <Dt'Aavoia, 1tapanovouvtav Ott Ot otE8vd; n EVoUtt~ OEY Ilnopouaav va ~xoop(crouv
Tt<; LKaVelVaptKt<; XciJPE<; TD flla a7ro t~V an~ (PAtlIETE TO tvaEtO 16.4).
A<; crrlllE1W8i, E1tl tau nupovro<;. on niaoo Kat a1[o 'W oUo KuvaAta tll<; 1l0AuvcrE(j)~
uTrapxouv at 1[POcrOOKiEC; tooV ayoPeDv. AUtE~, 01l00C;, o\! crXIlllatlSOVtat EV KEYeD, OUtE
lrPOEPXOVtal alrO telOrp01tT] ml~7rEPlCPOpci TWv ml~I-U:TEXOVTWV crn<; eu:8vEi<; XPDflatayo
pt.;, tWV KEpOOaKOlrWV mlfllrEptAaflPavofltvwv. Auto TO olroio OtaKLVOUvEtJOUV, TU xp~
!lata tOUe;, EivCll1l0AU GIlllavtlK6 yta va napaaup80uv crE t Et Ota auIl1le:PL<POpa,
A.A. A vr~ouA<iTo<;
34
lOlJ<'gO<;>OlLna :SlSO'!'eOOlv 'S"O~O",'lOOlOll 'lOlWX3:

)Ol~(nO)lAV YV ~
-~OlL 'm1J.lsgl'dIllL mJ. "9nD1d(l)e~'(lL '9~~Jttn 0 ,,~, A(I)X9lf> A(I)l lU~ 'olIll1J.)Sn nod319~lA
-SJ. n01 lU)( I'nIl "~)(\l1'(OlL '~~U~10lLOdS8Illf> ,Ill mO)Il'(lL Illf> "~~UIll1D1110A '~l AOA9n
'Xc>, "~)(ll\'(OU
'~1110AO)(1O '~, "Slll;>dtOlLIl '~1 "~)lLS ' IS)93dlllls '911D1d(l)8~'(lL
"(.,'Il)nUOO] '~~UOIl110AQ '~1 ';r'(OgIll3JAl \D~ '91101d(l)8U,(U" tTl mU19A

-s) ~O~n)lOlLn mJ. '3))(ogoodlL )3J.dnOll1ug '9nD1d(l)e~~lL '9'(~Jttn 0 'Il)111100l ~)(\lAon3l1
A~l mJ. '3))(ogoodlL 'U 13J,?3dlLlL3 Il)OlLO ~ "Ild<pX 'Ul A(I)lA9).odlL A(I)l 'IllU19)(1lf>IA(I)J.OlA
-0 '~OA8:ng 'Ul ~IllO,?lIl)(01LD )odlL 'uo~l1)lOlLn mJ. )(I)30?l1L ,~, (l)O?JAl 'nOA\\gAn OdlO
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'0A?11~1111d 3lLn 1Dl)3d(l)3e Il110
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"S13Dl?1)t3113."
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lIl~ 'Il)nOA0>10 '~l ~~10llods8IllD A~lD ' 3H,?gn(U) IlB ll9 J3eUd(l)39 A93 'odnoJ.)o lIlA)3
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01 313lLng) A<p11111dOld31! A<P)(UIll1J.DnIlA(u) ~d'(> A~l \t \l,(Ogl1L3 A~ ' " ~011L3 'BA'(>gnIl'(ld
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-0 ~ "~~u\'(OlL '~>llIll1ml1 oA '~l AIld,U "BD'(>lDIllg '?nOlL BX;J ~)(111'(OlL ~~ll1oAO~IO H
"~)lwyoU ~)llIioJ\O)lIO
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-9AS A~lD '<pAS1~3 )3eltl~J(U) De \Il~ 'IllIl'(l'dt3~ Il)dl IlAS119lL3 IllD )3ADdt De 3g '(I)lLo.
tl om,(O'",,)] - "li1o,oxlOo(jx~J<\l mx 5~(jO'l?l"i1b,oX 513D~,a.~n')]

",
l.<; epopt<; E1!lpaAel TTjV Ul06'TTj<1Tj UU<1TTjpOU <1W6EPOJlOlTjHKOU npoypaflfluTO<;. Bl.nerE

XUPUKtTjplOHKa ro Ev6ero 5.3 "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization Programs". Aoyoo uu
HOV snTj pEa!;l Kat H<; npOOOOKl<; YlU unuy~ TTj<; OlKOVOfllK~<; nOAlTlK~<;.
MaKpooIKOVOIlIKt~ AVI(JOppo1Tit~ .
KUl Ol fleyaAe<; flUKPOOlKOVOfllK'<; UVlGOpponls<;, nap6n Otv sflepUVU;OVTUl orTj cruv6~KTj

lOOOUVUfliu<; roov E1llrOKlWV, 'XOUV f1yaATj Eniopa<1Tj. Ta flEyaAu EUEiflflUTU rou npoUno
AOYlOflOU mlpaUouv nolli<; epopt <; uL06trTjOlj crumuAnK~<; OTjflOOLOVOfllK~<; noAmK~<;.
KUl, epuoLKa, mTjpsa!;ouv n<; npooooKU:<; rwv uyopmv YlU aUuy~ TTj<; OlKovofllK~<; nOAl
nKi!c;. Emweal;ouv KUl to acrcpaAlcrtpO KlVOUVOU, Ku80tl uusavouv IllV 1[18avOtlltU 11t(O
XWOSOl<; TIl<; KUPEPV~OEW<; (pl.ners ro Ev6ero 5.7 "A<1epaAlGTpO KLVOUVOU flTOOXW<1EOO<;
AOYlK~").
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Ta fleyclAa EAAeiflflara tou looi;UYlOU rpqouomv cruvaUaymv t1lTjpsa!;ouv TU a

<1epaAl<1TpU KLVOUVOU Kat pSumOrTjru<;. fla TTj XPTj flUTo80rTj<1Tj roov EUSlflflaTOOV anatTOU
VTUljJ.eyUAu TCAovacrj..lUra IOU laosuyiou xprU.l.Ul001KOVOlllKWV ouvuUuyoov to. onoia, eav
OSV Pps60uv, OTjflLOUPYouv KlVOUVO YlU cruvaAA.uYflunK~ KpiOlj. En",Atov, OTWLOUPYOUV
'AAel'l'Tj peumOTTjTU<; <1TTjV ayopa cruvuUclYflUTO<;, wem<; Tj i;~TTjOlj E,Evou vOfl(<1flaTo<; aa
dVUl U\jfTjATJ tvm Tj npoaepopa rou xaflTjATJ.
Tu fleyaAu EAAeiflflaTU rou mo!;uyiou TpExouamv cruvaUuymv E7CljpEai;ouv, EniaTj<;,
Kat TTjV npoaooKia YlU TTjV flEUOVTlK~ monflla: t,TjfllOUPYouv npoaooKl<; YLa unoTiflTjOlj
Tj onoiu au pOTjeOUOE "TIlV f1t(WOlj TOU EllilflflUTO<; (pAtners tTjV EVOtTjtU 2.4 "EAAe(fl
flatu rou j,m!;uYlou TpExouomv l:uvuAAaymv").
o U'I'lJAO<; ouvlOfl0<; OE E,Evo vOfllofla Ku6lma n <; eyxmpl<; tpanE!;E<; KUl snlXlp~
OEt<; euiIAWTS<; aE fllU UnOt(flTjOlj rou vOflloflaro<;. Eav cruflPEl Tj unoriflTjOTj, Ol txoVTS<;
ouvlmsi ,> E,tvo vOfllafla au npenEl vu nATjpmOOUV nEplooOtSpa XP~flUTU OE Eyxmplo
VOfll<1flU yl1l tTjV nATjpWfl~ TOKOOV Kat TIlV EE,oepATjaTj rwv oavEioov. YmipXEt Kivouvo<;, VU
flTjV slVat as aEOTj va to npaE,ouv (pAtnErs tTjV U1!O-tvorTjTU "t,UVl<1flO<; OE 2evo NOfll
OflU - Tu l:rpEpAiI KiVljTPU twv l:rUaEpmV raOnfllmV" OtTjV EVOTTjta 16.5). Ol ayopt<;,
avayvwpil;ovra<; aut6v TOV KlvDuva, KuS6n DAa to. VOlltOIlUta Kcl1tOlU <JtlYIl1l U1tOtlIlW
VtUl, 6a i;TjTOUV U'I'TjAOrepO aaepiIAlmpo KlV8Uvou.
MiIAlOTU, onw<; CIVUAUErUl 0TIlV evOtTjra 17.4 "l:uvaUUYflatlKt<; Kp(aEl!;", U'I'TjAO<;
OUVElGflO<; ,> E,Evo v6fllOflU s(Val Eva<; ano rou<; napayovTS<; Ol onoioL npoKUAouV xpTjfia
roolKovOfllKE<; Kplal<;. Ol OUVEli;0fltvOl <1E E,EVO VOfllOflU, xwpi<; ",aavov va to UvtWIfl
pavovtuc, OTjfllOUPYouv npoaepopE<; cruve~KS<; YlU TTlv EflepavtcrTj fllU, Kpiosw<; Tj onola eu
SnTjpEaOSl apVTjnKa rou<; nclvTS<; '''Tj xmpa tou<;, aKOflTj Kat TOU<; flTj EXOVTE<; oCIVlmsi
OUTS OE E,Evo OUTS aE eyxmpLO VOfllGfla. KUl Ol aamOl nATjpmVouv..
TeAOC;, at CPOUo"KE<; ausavouv to. aacpCtAlatpa K1VOUVOU Ku90n to cr1aat~6 tOUl;
~n:opi
va n:poKa)J;al 01KOVO~lKtl Kpiml Katappucrtl teDV tmXlp~cr(OV KOl tpa1tt<ffiv.
ruvBtiKt~ (JTI~ .o.ltBVEi~ XptlllaTavopt~ _
0\
cruve~KE<;
<1T" OtEevEi<; xpTjflarUyOpE<; E1[)1PEai;ouv ru uoepaALGrpa KlVOUVOU KUl peu
crt6tlltac; ta orrota SlltOUV Ol n:EVOutEC; )'lU va 1EVoucrouv a ~ia xoopa. kUYKKpl~tva,

crt rrpt600uC; 67tou Ot U7tOOOalC; teDV Kat a9t crEeDV, O~OA6)'{J)V Kat J..1tOXWv teDV ~yaA(J)v
XeDPOOV tLvm xa~llAtc;, OL 1EVOUttc; K'UVll),oUV a1oS6a19>: EivUl olat91~tv01 va 7tV~
OUOOUV <1S fllKpe<; xmp~ arrooq oflEvol XUflTj AOtEpu aoepaAlOtpU KTVOUVOU Kat pEUOrOTIl
'BateD, ytU rrapaoly~a, 6n Ol 1tEVOUtEC; ~lltOUV ampaAlatpO KWOUVOU 6% )'la va .
nEvouoouV <1E 0floAoya tou MEE"Kav,Kou OTjflOoiou flS
p~tpa
OOAUp(OU, otav Tj aJlOOOOTj
1tap6~01eDV 0~oA6yO)v tOU A~pIKavIKou oll~ocr(OU tiVat 4%. ZlltOUV, o~roc;, acrepuAlatpO
KlVOUVOU 5% otav II an:6SoCITj nov o~oA6yO)v tOU AjJplKavIKou 5tl~ooiou lVal 30/0.
Mia npoepuv1lS naptvEpYELU EivUl Otl TO KOcrtO<; OUVElCJ~OU rTj<; MEE,lKUVlKTJ<; KUPEP
flStUpaAAetUl nSplGGorspo an6 on TO avricrtolXo KOOtO<; TTj<; AflEPlKUVlK~<;. l:to
1)1[0 ou!;~tTjOTj napaolYflu, Tj unooo<1Tj tWV 0flOA6yooV toU MsE,lKOU fllmaTjKE Kata 3%,
v~aEOO<;
36
OlIO 10% (=1%+6%) ae 8%
(~3 %+5%) ,
evw
~ olIoooa~
TWV AflePIKOVIKWV OflOAOYWV
IlLW811K KOta }%, ono 40/0 at 3%.

XOpoKT~ptmtKij Eivot ~ oijAwa~ evo, 0SIWflOTOUXou TOU MEStKOU, 0 olIoio, auvE
Kp tVe T~V lIpO TOU 1990 OOUVOfllO TOU MeSIKOU va OOVlCHei an, Oteltvel, XP~~oToyoPE,
~e TOV 1I0KTWAO XP~flOTWV 0 olIoio, OPXtae va Ela pEEl O"T~ xwpo flTO TO 199 1 Kat flEXPI
T~V Kpia~ TOU t.eKe~ppiou 1994 : 'To" oev eiflOO"TEToaO KaKoi [WaTe va fl~ fllIOPOUflE va
OOVEtaTOU ~El, evw TWPO oev lflome Toao KOAo i [YIO va oeXo~ome ToaE, EtapoE, ],.'
'Evo, a~flovnKo, 1I0paywv 0 olIoio, E1I~peO~EI n , auVSijKE, ITTt, otltvl, XP~flOTO
YOPES lVOI TO ElIlTOKIO TWV H.rr.A. Kat T~ S EKT. I;uvij8w" ae lIepIOOOU, XOfl~ AWV E1ItTO
Kl(i)V IOU 50 AaplOU KaL IOU EUpW, 6rav TJ pEUat6tTJta EivUl IJ,EyCt.AT] rraYKOOlllWC;, IllWVO
VWI TO OaejlOAlmpO KIVOUVOU. AusoVETo~ E1Iia'l" KOI ~ pEUO"T6T~TO an, oyoPE, TWV ~t
KPWV xwpwv, AOYW TOU flEYOAUTEPOU OYKOU auvoAAoyWV alIa TOUS OIEltveU; ElIevouTE" Kal
cruvEJrWC;, )..lEtWVOV'tClt Kat to. UCHpaALC:r rpa pE1)at6trrrac;.
EVOelKTtKO T~, ElItopaaEWS TWV auV8~ KWV ans OtESVelS xp~flOTOYOpt, dvol TO OKO
A.OUaO SHlypallllU, to onolo mOt01tOlE1 n<; lleyciA.<; OLUKU lluvaEU:; 'HOV acrcpaAicrrpwv KIV
OUVOU Kat pEUcrrOtT']tuc,;.
Figure 3.6. Yield Spreads for Selected Emerging Market Eurobonds

(Weekly 3Yerage . ln basis points)
<
1400
-1200
Brazil
1200
-1000
Republic 01
, MalaYSia
Korea
1000
- 800
600
COO 400
200 -
01
Tlrrri:
200
Colombia
1997
98
!J.1 EBv !,;~ NOlllOlLCltlicO
99
2000
01
1997
98
99
2000
01
TOIl\O, International Capital Marke ts. AUyouo:toS 200 1.
ItiVOIIl'1
Ol uvuntpw E1tlOpacrEtc,; dVUl evcSEtK'tlKt~ tOU EUPEW<; <paollato<; tUlV <PUlvollVWV ta orrola
Ilnopouv va avaAu90uv IlE til cruvEhlKTJ looouvalllu<; tWV e1rltOKlwV.
ovaAua~
So lVat
"A~ptaTEP~
OTOV auvouoaSEi flE TO
UlIOOEIY~O
Mundell
Fleming. Me auto, au ).mopouv va IlAct1190uv 01. E1rLntWOct<; ot 6All tllv OlKOVOIl{a Kat
6XL 1l0VOV ota ErrltOKlU Kat crn~ cruvallay )latlKt~ lOOtlllle<;, orrwt; YlVC'tUl IlEXPl twpa Il
xp~Cllj T~S I;UVSijK~"
I;~fllwaoTE on 1I0UE, OlIO ns ev AOYWEmopaalS eiVOt EKT", TOU EAEyXOU TWV Ap
xwv T~, Utopia. KOlIole, alIa oUTEs, ~aAlma, fle lIpOEsapxouaES T~ vOfllaflonKij 1I0AtTlKij
TWV ~EYalwlv xwpwv, Tl, auv8ijK, aTt, oteSVEl, xp~flOTOyopt<; Kat T~V xp~~aTOO tKOVO~ t
Kij flOAUVCllj, oev EXOUV KOflio aXECllj ~ T~ XWpO. AUeS, miAt, 01I"", Ot lIpoaoOKieS TWV
m evouTwv, lVOl ouaKOAO va rrpopAE<p80uv.
Avaq>EpE'TOl OTT} m:/.... 152 IOU P,P).iou Pop Internationali sm, 1'0'\) Paul Krugman (MIT Press, 4'1
avunl1twO"Tl, 1996).Tu KiIH."VU OE ay1C\JAl; EivaL C1tE~llYTl).lanKt.~ 1tPOcrB~KE: S '[ou yp6.cpov'[Q~.
37
H Utopia, orr,"s Kal Ka8 ~lKpij xwpa, ~1[Qpl va urro<Hi ap"'lTlKts cruVErrtt<;, <JX
KUl ~ lapots KUl ~ KpOtS KljlaAai,"v, aKo~~ Kal av aKoAau8i cruVTij Ot
Kava~tK{l "aAlTlKij T~V orraia mKpaTouv a[ 8t8vdS xp~~aTOyopES Kat EYKpivauv at IjlU
AaKS T~S a[KaVO~[KijS op8a80l;ias, MOlS TO 6NT. AUTES 8 Ol cruVErr\S, flrropi va 08~
TlL;6~S
'Y~crouv a KpiOT{, )1 opallOttKEC; cruVEnEIEC; ym tllv OlKOv0)11a Kat 10Ue; Kat01Kouc; tT]<;
xw
pas. BAtrrT TO 1:v8TO 17.3 "KEYTp1K(ilv TpalIL;wv Biot napoU~AOl".

E1IllIAEOV, ~ Utopia 8EY fllIopd va xp~mflOlIO[ijot cruvaAA.oyfla11KOUS rrplOptoflOUS
yta va 7tpocrran:u9i uno ttc; rrapevtpyEl<; tWY SleVWY 1tEVOUtlKWV KEIPaAUtwv. '07[00<;
8,MoK' ~ OtKOvafllKij lOTapia Kal 8~AlWVl ~ alKovo~lKij AaYlKij, Ol cruvaHaYflaTlKo[
1tEpLOpla)1oi yta va EXOUV KUll0l0 a1(01:4(J~a npbfEl va EiVal !lEPOC; VCC; EUp(nEpou
rrAaloiau rrptoplOflWV TO alIoia KaAU"'llIOAAOUS TOfliS T~S atKavO flll(11 S 8paaT~ptOT~
Tas
AAW Kat lIaAI, ~ alIOTAEaflaTlKOT~Ta TaUS 8a ivOl ppaXuPUI K080n Ol XOVTES TO
OlKOVOfllKO Kiv~Tpo OIKavO~lKa[ rrapoyaVTS 8a ppauv Tporra va Taus rrapaKOfl\jlOUV. Kat
flaAlOTa ~ VOfll~O TpOlIa. Ap,"yo O aun]v TOUS T~V lIpaolIa8tta txouv TO xp~flaTOOIKa
VOIlIKO uUcrtTH.l.O to arrato {)\)VX,WC; OTUltOU PYEt KOlV010)11KCt rrpolovta Yla tllV )1ElWO"l1 troy
lIao~s IjlUOOlS ~apQlWV KOOTOUS OTIS OlKova ~tKES cruvaAAayts. BMlIT OxnK<l T~V CVO
T~1O 17.3 "fIpi TOlV l:uvaUaYflanKwv fIPlOpto~<ilv".
Ev KatUKA.lOl, to taO~uyto XPll)1UtOOtKOvO)1tKwV cruvaAAaywv (vm rrpaY)lun to 1
crXUPOtEPO Kat 1tOAUrrAOK6t EPO KavaA1 )lEcrOO tOU arroiOD 11 818v~C; OlKOYOI.da Kat Ot OlE
8v[S xp~fla1Oyopts ~paL;ouv T~V OIKaVOflia KOl TIS xp~flaTayopts flias xwpas, flEYa
A~ S ij fllKpijS KOl ival aUTO TO alIaia OAES Ol X<ilPS AErXauv Kat lI~paL;auv Aty6Tpa.
'Onwc; Kat KUSE tt crIllY OlKOV0)11K~ SWI1, tinotE OV ElVal x.(Op{~ K6crto~. H cru~~EtOX.tl
aTO rraYKoofllO XP~flOTOOIKOVOfllKO oUo~fla 8~fllOUpyi 1I0AAtS uKmpic; Yla 11S fl'KptS
XWPS, ana Kat rraAAOUS Ktv8Uvaus. "Ou81:v mAOv afltYES Ka KOU, KOl rraAI. AlIaTEAd 8
~yaA~ Kat 8~ fllOUPY lKij lIpOKA~O~ ym ~ia fllKpij xwpa va ~EYIOTorralijO1 TO aljltA~ T ~S
OUilflTOXijs, AaXlOTOltOlWVTOS TOUTOXPOVOlS TOUS "XTIKOUS KlV8uvouS (pAtrrT T~V cvo
"110 17.2 "6l8v~ Errv8uTlKa KtpoAata - 6lAijfl~aTa").
A.A.
AV1~ouNho,
38
TO 11:OZYrlO XPHMATOOIKONOMIKON rYNAAAArON................................................... I
14.1 ElrACOrH ..... .................... ........................... ...... ....................... " ,....... ,.. ,.... ,...... ".,.".,., .... , 1
14.2 nEPI AnoLlorEClN "., ...... ,.. ,.".,...... ,............ ,."." .. ,',.,.,., .. ,...... ,., .. " .... ,.. ,.,." .......... ..,.. " ...... ,.2
14.3 H I:YN0HKH IWLlYNAMIAr TON EmTOKION ., ................... ,.............................. ,., ................ 9
14.4 EnEKTArEIr .... ,.................... ,................... ,., ..... ,... ,.. ,.... , .......... .... ,...... .... ,.. ,....... ... ,...... ,., 21
14.5IWZYrlO XPHMATOOIKONOMIKnN I:YNAMACON - EmLlPArEIL ........................... ,...... , 29
TO II:OZYrlO XPHMATOOIKONOMIKON rYNAAAArON................................................... 1
14.1 EIrACOrH .......... , ,......... ,",..... ,......... .. ,.,.".,. ,., ... ,..... ,...... ,.. ,,.,., ..... " .. ,......... ,........... ... ,... ,... , 1
14.2 nEPI AnoLlOrEClN .... ,.. ,........... ,., .. ,.............. ....... ,...... ,.. ,................ ,. ,.,.. ,.........
..2
Anol>ocruc; AtloypO:qlwv/EntvbuQf:wv. ..
ruvaMay}JOT1Krl Arrol)oo'l . '"
.... . .......................
........ 3
....... 6
. ..... 6
14 ,1. Avo}..uor) nv; ruvaAAaYl-laTlK~<; ATT0i56oEWC;..

14, 1. LuvoMaYl-laTIK~ ATTOOOOrj- YTTOAOYI01.l6C;
.... 6
Ecpopl-loy~ 14.2. LuvoMaYl-laTlK~ ATTOOOOrj- AV0I-lEVOIJEVrj KOI npaYlJaTIK~..

. ..... 8
"Ev8ETO 14.1. 0 'Tuxafoc; npiTTOTOC;' TWV LuvoMaYl-lanKwv IOOTlI-.Jlwv..

.. B
14.3 H I:YN0HKH IroLlYNAMIAr TON EmTOKION ............. ,.,., .... ,

.......... ,... ,....................... 9
rX~lJa
Eq>apl-loy~
ATT6bl~~.
....
........................... ......9
r Xtll.lO 14.2. ETTlAOytc; TOU EUPWTTOiou ETTEvi5UT~ ...

..10
'Ev8ETO 14.2. 01 XPIlIJOTlKtC; Pote; IJE TOU') E~WT EP IKOO<; Aoyaploo}Jo0C; Tr]<) Xwpac;
12
'Ev8ETO 14.3. H nAEUpd TwvAIJEPIKOVWV ETTEVbuTWV..

. 14
IUVETTEIE<;.. ...
.. 14
'Ev8ETO 14.4 . .6.0vrIOIJOC; Of: :::fvo NOI-lIO'l.Io ..

....... ............ ..................
. 15
'E v6ETo 14.5. 'Carry Trade' - ~POXI-lr) KOi n tv..

. 15
. 18
Eqmpl-l0Yr) 14.3. ErrlTOKIO KOI AVOIJEVOIJEV'l ruvo.v.OYI-lOTlK~ Arr60oO''l..

'E v6Ero 14 .6. ruyKAlatl TWV ETTITOKiwv O'TtlV Eupw-~wvr)..
. 18
'Ev6ETO 14 .7. MOKPOOIKOV0I.IIKfC; AVIO'opporrfEC; KOI ETTITOKIO

...... 19
EcpoPl.loYr) 14.4. METO~OAtC; TWV ETTITOKiwv KOI TWV 100oTl"Jlwv..

................... ....... 19
EcpoPI.l0yr) 14.5. E~r)YWVTOC; TO AO'TPOVOI.I1Kcl ETTITOKIO ..

........................... 21
14.4 EnEKTArEIr
.__ ............... "." ......................... ,........... ____ .____ .
.... 2 1
niVO KOC; 14.1. Iuv6r)K'llaoouvol-lioC; TWV ErrlToKiwv- ETTEKTOcrtlC; ..

.... 22
...... 23
AO'q)(iAlaTpo PWO'T6TI1Tac;. .. ............... ............ .............

EcpoPlJoYr) 14 .6. AacpoAIO'TPO PEUO"TOTIlTOe; - /\OYIKr) KOI YrroAoY101-l6e;..
.... 23
..... .. ...................
.. .. :25
K6O'Ttl IuvaMaywv...
Ecpopl-loy~ 14 .7. Iuvo.v.0YI-l0TlKof nEplOplO'l-loi KOI KOOTOe; IuvoMoywv..
.. .. 25
'Ev6ETO 14.8. IUVOAAOYI-lOTIKOi nEplOplO'l-loi KOI AUTOV0l-lio Tile; NOI-lIOI-lOnKr)e; nOAITIKr)e;
............... .
....................... w
Aoq)(iAIO'TPO Klv6uvou...
... 26
Ecpopl-loy~ 14.8. AOCPOAIOTPO K,v/5(Jvou - /\oytKr) KOI YrroAoYlOI.1 6C;..

.. 27
...27
Iuv6r)KtliO'06uvol-lioC; TWV ETTlTOKiwv - PEoAJaTlKOTEPtl Mop<pl']. ..

Ecpopl-loy~ 14.9. AUT6-ETn~E!3010UI.IEVEe; np00'l50KiEe; YrrOTII-lr)oEWC; .
...................... .. 28
14.5lrozYrlo XPHMATOOIKONOMIKnN I:YNAMACON - EniLlPArEIL ... __ .... ,...... __ ............... ,29
'Ev8no 14.9.
napt ~~aa~ ar~v
Ayopa
ruva illlay ~aTo~ ..
. 29
'Ev8ETO 14.10. !oo<uYlo XPIlI-lOTOOIKov0I-lIKWV IuvoAAoywv KOI 1000TII-lI<; .................... 30
IXr)l-lo 14.2. loo~uylo XP'lIJOTOOIKOVOIJIKWV IuvaM aywv - EmopaolC; .................... 31
NOI-lIO'l-laTlKrl nOAITlKr). ................ .......

............................... 31
npoa6oKIEC;...
.. .... ......................... 31
. ...... ............. .. 32
'Ev9ETO 14.11 . OIKOV0I.IIKr) llITTAWI-l0Tla - Plaza & Louvre Accords ...

............ ...... 33
XPIlIJOTOOIKovoIJIKr) MoAuvO'Il (Contagion)...

niVOKOC; 14.2. XP'lI-lOTOOIKOVOIJIKr) MOAUVOr)- KavOAIO. .
................... 34
OIKOVOIJ1Kr) nOAITIKrl. .... ...................

................................... ...................... 35
n~~8wpl(J~6~ ...
.. ..................... 35
MaKpoOIKOVOIJldC; AVlaoppoTTfEC;. . ............ .....................

. ..................... .. 36
rUV9r,KEC; allC; .619vEfC; XPtlI-lOTayoptC;...

..... .................. ...................... 36
IUvoljJ~...
A.A. A vr(ouAcno<;
.. ................... 37
39
'.'
Ku~eQVngG.lC. XQ!lUa:ta::YOOEC X<Xl MCXXQOOlKOVDUl<X
KecpaAa:tO 15
15
To Y1TOl5IYI.IO Mundell - Fleming
H Ayopa IuvaMaYl.laTOC; Kal 01 .6.IE8vEiC; XprllJaTayoptc; eTTO npOeTKrlVIO
"Rohert Mundell has established fhe foundation for the theory which dominates
proc/ical policy considerations of monetary and fiscal policy in open economies.
His work on mone/Dly dynamics and optimum currency areas has inspired
generations of researchers. Although daling back several decades, Mundell's
contributions remain oU/standing and constitufe the core 0/ leaching in
international macroeconomics.
Mundell's research has had such a Jar-reaching and lasting impact because if
combines/ormal - but sr;[f accessible - analysis, intuitive inferprefol;on and resu/Is
wilh immediate policy applications. Above all, Mundell chose his problems with
unCommon - almost prophetic - accuracy in terms of predict;ng the future
development of internaliona! monetmy arrangements and capital markets.
lvlundell's contributions serve as a superb reminder of the significance of basic
research. AI a given paint in time academic achievements might appear rather
esoteric; not long afterwards, however, they may take on great practical
importance.
How are the effec!~ of mane/my and fiscal policy related to the integration of
international capital markets? How do these effects depend on whether a country
fixes the value of its currency or allows it to floal freely? Should a counfly even
have a currency of its own? By posing and answering questions such as these,
Robert Mundell has reshaped macroeconomic theory for open economies. "
(An6 lJrV avaKoiv(t)O"I1. HIS IoU l)&IK~ S AKa&rU.l.lm; EmOl1))Hi)V 11a l11.V ppapcuO"'l.
lOU Robert Mundelillt to Bpaptio NOllnA- om O1KOVOIl IKO: TO 1999.)
(E).xuOtpI) Anooo<JT) 0 Robert Mundell EeEOE ta eqlEA-IU ym 11) 9twpia 11. onolo
KUptaPXd O"tl)V 0:0U)0'l. T'l.S vOJ..l.IOIlOtlKT1<; KUI &'l.J..l.OO"LOVOJ..l.IK~<; nOA-lttK~<; OE avOl
Ktb; OlKOV0 l.l.tt<;. H tpCUVCt t OU aValpOptKU J..l. tl) SUVal.l.1Kll T'1 o; uyop6.<; xp~J..l.atOS
Kat n o; PEA-tlatES vOI.l.IOllanK:<; CVWOIS ExEt EllltVEUOU no)J.t<; yt=VcES CPEUVlltroV .
Tlapotl Upt0J..l.El &EKOcriES sro~s, II O"UvEtoqmpa toU Mundellnupulli:vcl 7rPWt07r0pl
UK~ KUt unotEl.l tll Paoll )'\0 tll ih&ooKUA-ia tl)S ol8vouS J..l.UKpOOtKOVOJ..l.tK~S.
H EPEuvu tOU Mundell exci tOOO Eupdu Kat OtaxpovtK~ an~Xl)Ol) KU1. cniopuoTl,
OtOtt cruvOUUst E1tlOtTl,J..l.OV tK~ -o:ll6 1tp O OtT~ OtOV unw KOOJ..l.o- uvaAuoll , ),O)'\K~
~~YllOll KUeW~ Kat unOtc)J;ollat U J..l.E OJ..l..0TI cq)QpJ..l.oy~ 0Tf\ xapa ~ll "tl)~ OtKOV0 J..l.I
K~S nOA-lnK~ S Tl(XVw uno cAu, 0 MW1dell 1tfM:~ ta eEIlUW tl)S PEUVllS t ou ilL
ucruv~8\Otll - oxcS6v 7rpoq>llllK~ -aKp(pElO avacpoptKU J..l. ns ~AAoVTIK{:~ ~v..i
~lS OtIS St8vd~ OIKovoIlLKe~ OX:OEt~ KUl n<; 8u:8vEiS xpI)~UTUyOpi: ~. H cruvEI0<P0
pu TOU unotAtl aoto\VtlJa-rTl, 1l0pTIJpia Tf\<; OTl,J..l.UOlu<; Tf\<; PUotK~S EpoJV11~. :EuXV6.
Ot uKaoll~a"iKts IlEllicS q>u(vovrUt UO"XETI;S ~E TOV npuy~a1\KO KOO ~O Kal xwpi~
npUKtIKt<; EcpUp~Oyt<;. nptV, OIlWS, nEpaOElnOAU<; x.pOvo<;, uno&EII(vUElat on txouv
llyclAll JtpaKnK~ oll~aoia.
Tl ro<; 10 uJt01d.io~ata tl1.<; VO lltOllattK~ ~ Kat ol) ~OmOVO ~LK~S ltOA.tTlK~S OXed
sOvtOt ~E TI)V OAOKA~PWOll tWV OIEOvWV xpllJ..l.atayopwv; n w<; auto. tU U1fO"tE:A.t
OJ..l.OtO E~OptOOVTat uno to d.cv 'l xwpa OKOA-oued nOltnK~ a-r09Epao; ~ Il:tUP A'l.t~ S
tOOtl~io<;; A~isE I lOV K01fO J..l.ia xwpo va tXCt .5IKO trIO; VOI.l.I0J..l.U; 0ttovtoS EPWt~IlU
Ta omJ)<; outa, 0 Robert Mundell aA.)~a~E t'1 J..l.OKpOotKOVOIlIK~ 8Eropiu Yla UVOlKtES
OIKOV0I.l.lD;.)~
To 1tUKVO OE \IVOlEo; Eloaywyu(o KdllEVO OiVEI Ilia npWtl) uio8WITl trov 8EIl(ltWV,
TU onola Ou E~EtuOtOUV , Kat tll~ npaKttK~S u~ia<; TOU<;. To EUPOS tou<;, OJ..l.WS. ElVUI
lu;yaAUt cpo mro Otl \)1tOVOdtal <JtTlv avmCOlVWIJIl 'ITlt:; w\l '1 ~hl( ~<; Al(ubllllia<; Em
ITtIlIlOW, Km 1tm<; va )lllv dval aq>ou '1 Opa)latlK~ UVa1tTU~'l t ())V ou:8vciw EnEVOUtl
Kmv 1(E:<pOA.(ll())V ano n<; apxt<; t'l~ bO'(l,crlW; toU 1990 txouv aA.A.6.~E: t Opa)latlKO tl~
cruve~l( c<; ()!IlV 1tayKocrl-lla OIKOvo)lia Ku8w<; KaL to\)<; I(avovc<; tOU nmXV10lOl);
TIapa t a"Ota, to unoblYIlU Mundell - Fleming nUpU)ltvf.1 tva E~a\ pEnKo Kn"Ul
OEUtll(O cpyauio yta tllV Katuv6'1cr'1 tOU 1tOAll1tAOKOU KocrllOU ()!OV 0 1[010 ~OUIl .
15.1 Elaaywyr'J
To KliPlO au~llepao~a rou ulloli (y ~aro, MundellFleming ivat on ~ia <;WTp'Kq
(Jopp07ria,
nv,
Ii~Aali~,
BP
= CA + CF ;<0,
SttEl crE KlvTJCHl tvav uut6~ato crta8 EponOl11tlKO )l11xuvlcr )lO 0 onoi~ Sa n.:iVtl va tTJv E
~aAEl,a Kat va 1tava<ptpa c(rorcplK11 I(Jopporcia.
BP =CA + CF=O.
H q>ucr11 autou tou )l11xaVlcr)lOU Esaptatat an6 to crUcrt11~a cruvaAAaY)lattKcDv lcrOtl)lLcDv .
~UYKKpl~Eva, U1l0 mSwrws oraS p wv lO OTl~lWV AlTOUPY(
~ eaUl t~, VO~la~aTlK~, I(U.
KAoljlopia" V
W U1l0 mSwtw, ~ta~A~tWV laon~lwv ~eaUl t~<; ovo~aanK~S laoTl~ia,.
Dapa t~V allAOt~ta tOU au~llpaa~atO" ~ avaAua~ toU V
AOYUl ~~xaVla~Oli Kat
tUlV aU~A1lllipaa wv tOU ~ t~V OlKovo ~(a Kat tL; xp~~atayope<; ~ ia<; xwpaS Ijlaivuat
Tr')
I..HeV
alKOVC
30~
11
l' ,
n
I~
ua
va Uyy{l~,El ta 6p\O tou aouvatou . KOI tOUtO Olon, tK npWTTJ C; o' tWe; tOUAaXlcrtOv, anOl
t d tat flia llA~Swpa IitaIjlOp nKWV unolilYflat Ulv: 'Eva UnOIi lYfla Yla KaS ouvliuuaflo
r UlV llUpafltrpUlV Ol olloi<; .OXtU;Ovt at fl TIl At rouPyla tou. EVOlKTlKO t~<; nA~Swpa<;
HOV urrO Otly~atWv tiVat to cruVtxte; q>ucr~a cruvaUaY)latlKc..lW tcrOtl)llWV (PAtrrttt tTJV E
vot~ta 13.5 "LuaTliflata LuvaUaYflaTlKWV la OTlfllWV - LUvtOfl~ Dplypaljl~"), ym KaS
Oll)ltio tOU orrolou arralttltat oLacpopEtlKf] aVCtAuo11 .
Depav tTlS auvaUaYflanKlis l<lOTlflla<;, an , aXTlKeS llapa~t pOl ivat to OIKOVO'
f.iIKO f.ityc8o~ ~lUC; xwpae;, to anoia npocrotop(C;El KUtU nocro autTt )lrropd va en11peucrEt n e;
olt8vtte; ayopt<; o.ya8wv & V7U1PCJlWV Kat avvaUaYf.io.ro(, 11 a~pavorcoi"qf/, 11 onoio )lrro
pti va lIpOOtatwO"El rrpoowplv6. t11V t YXWPlO OlKovo~ia o.no n e; cruvnEtc; )liae; l;ro,[E'Pt
Kite; aVloopponiru;, Ku8we; Kat 01 (Jovillayjiat/KOi JCepIOPI(Jjiof, Ol 01tOiOl 1tTJp EaC;OUv ne;
KlVtlOlC; trov ol8v<ilv E1tevOUtlKc..IW KEcpaAa[oov .
TtooEpte; rrUpa)lEtpOI, ~E ~EYa.AO apt8~0 m8uvwv Katacrrucr Eoov Yla tTl" Ku8E )lia,
a~~a[Vl ouv~nKa 6,lllPO aplS~6 ananou~lEvUlV U1l00lYflatUlv. rLU napa lielYfla, ~ aopa
vOlloi~a~ flllopd va elVat OAlKli li ~plKli. Lt~V llpwr~ llp[1ltUla~ , ~ mKovo~ia alloflo,
VWVEtOl Katnpocrtat EuEtat 1tAit pWC; urro tlC; OlalCU)lCt.vm:t<; tau LaoC;uyiou nA11pw~wV Ka8'
6AO to lilaar~~u 1l0U olapKei. Lt~ OutP~ llpi1ltUla~ , npoatat u t Ul flPlKW<;. To flIt
y S 09' O r~<; llpoataa[a<; ~apt6.ral ano to ~aS (lo aopavonolliOlo",<;: llX, 30%, 50%,
70% rou nAcovaOflUto<; ~ TOU U d flflUtO<; tOU laoi;uyiou nA~pUlflwv.
'Q~(i)C;, '[0 cpatVo~ evlKa uouvato yivEtat Eq>IK"tO )..1 E tTlv avuAucr11 OUO oKpaiwv KU
tUo'[acrEwv Yla Ku9E ~ia napu~ELpo . ME auto roy tp6no )lElcDVOvrat at mSOVEe; KUtUcrtU
a t<; a Ome~l (= 2', t (aaeplS napa~tpol n[ QUO mtaotao l , yta KaS napafl t po).
KaS vola~w~ Karaata<lT], ta auflnpaa~ata Sa elVUl Evas auvouaaflo, tlDV au
~n EpUO )lUtwV YLU tt.; OUO aKpaLE<; KUtucrtCmEle;.
E1llnAeov, 0 aKOAou8mj (lVos aAyoplS~o<; napa(lEv l a llitoS Yla 01.<; n<; Kataara
Ole;, )l arrOttAcr~a 0 ap19)l6e; tWV urrOOEtY)lUtWV OUO tOOttKa. va 1ItplOpiC;ttat OE tva: to
llpOS nflliv rUlV O'lfl\OUPYWV rou , Robert Mundell Kal Marcus Fleming, 1 lovO(lai;oflVo
unoo l y(la Mundell - Fleming .
'OnUl<; Kal fl to unoolYfla ISILM, to un6 ~traa~ Mundell- Fleming ~e<pcUYl allo
ta ~tpa tWV tU1tlKWV unOOEtnLC'ttWv.. A vU~Ecra OE aAAa, avuOEIKVUEl t OY POAO twv
1tPOOOOKIWV Kat tWV OlSVWV nevoutlKcDV KEq>aAaioov . Totoutotponw.;;, )lrropEi va XPTJ<H
)lOrrOl11 9Ei yw t11v UVUAUO"l1 nA118wpu.;; crevapiwv Kat OlU'!UPUXcDV, ano ta nAOv tUTrtKU
rLa
A.A.
Av,,~ouA.x1O<;
KU~Q\lnOlC
XOntJ.CilCiYOQEC
t(O<; ta 1tA.EOV
e~(Otl1(a
XClt
MaxQootxo\lo~ia
- Ke:qXXActlO 15
Kat -K 1tPOHTl<; 6\1fEW<;--OUO"1(OAa, 6mo<;, E1tt
1tapaoiy~an,
n<; (J'U
vaUaYflanKe<; Kpi~l<;.
LUYKKp1fl!:va, TO unoolYfla Mundell - Fleming npoepXTCll ano T~ mivSO~ TOU
IS/LM 1' T~ (J1JVS~K~ l~oouvaflia<; HOV mToKilOv. EK KClTacrKU~<;, olaT~pi T~V uA.l~ia
tOU 1tpcinou. E1tlnA..Eov, ~.I.1topf va aVaA.ucreL ta ~WtlKU crEVapLu tT]<; LIE Kat, ~aAlOta,
avaOlKVUOVtU<; tl<; 1t11ttwm:u;, 0Xl ~6vo ota 1tltOKLU, 61tw<; T] tIE, aAAu Kat OtT]V OlKO- .
vo ~ia YvlK6tepa.
H (J1JI;TtT~cr~ ~Klva 1' T~V cpuo~ TOU OTaS p01[O I~nKOu fl~XClv lcrflOU. Luvqil;TCll 1'
cpapfloy!t TOU ClAyopiSfloU avClAuow<; unoolYflaTlOv OTllv Clyopa (J1JVaUaYflaTo<; KCll
T~V nplypaCPit T~<; lcropponia<; crT~V OIKovoflia. To KcpaAaw KAiv[ 1' T~V avaAuo~ TU
1tlKWV oEVapLlOv O1KOVO~I.lK~<; 1tOAlnK~<; Kat KcmOlWV OlUtapaxwv an6 tllV ayopo. cruVUA.
AaYflaTO<;, Yla fliCl fllKPTt xwpa. H avaAucr~ Yla flEYaAll xwpa, KClSW<; Kat cruvSTOTPlOV,
T~V
KUlnplOo6tpo VOtU<ppovrwv, oEVapilOV, yiVtat (JtO no~EVO K<pCtAUlO.
crvaAucr~
TOU
crTaSponOl~nKOU
flllXClVlcrflOU Sa
avaod~l
KClAuTpa TOV crTaSpo
n0111tlKO p6AO tWV (J'Uva.A.A.aYJ..latlKWV lOOtlJ.llWV, 1tpi tOU onoio\) J.liu npWt11 J-Lvia tytV
crTO KcpaACllo 13. Ev (J1JVTOflia, ~ OVOflClOTIKit lcrOTlflia aVTClvaKAa Tl<; crUVSitK<; npoocpo
pa<; KCllI;~TTtcrw<; OT~V ayopa (J1JValliWClTG<;. AUT<; iVCll anoTAcrfla TlOV anocpacrwv
EKatO ~~upiwv aVE~apI~IWV Kat E1tlOlWKOVtOOV to ll8ylOtO KEPOO<; OlKOVOlllKWV napayo
VTWV, cr oAov TOV K6crflo, ym ~aYlOYE<;, lcrClYWY<; KCll m:voucrl<; crTll xwpa TOU<; it cr
Kanma an~ xwpa.
Eav, O Ko.n01u (HLYllti, 11 (J'Uvl<Jta~tvTl tOOV uno<po.owv tou<; oe:v lVUl auv1(~<; ~ tTl
crUVSTtK~ lcropponiCl<; npoIJrpopa ~ (irr'l(J1) YlCl Ka1[OlO VOl'lcrl'a, 01 1[pocr1[aSI<; TOU<; va
UA01[OITtcrouv n <; Cl1[Ocp6.crl<; TOU<; Sa npoKClAtcrouv l'TapoA!t T~ <; ovol'acrnKli<; loonflia<;.
H flmpOATt O aUTTt Sa oO~yTtO1 6AoD<; TOU<; QtKOVOfllKOU<; ""payoVT<; va avaSwPTt
crouv lU; arroq>6.al<; t0D<; J-LE ttlOlo tpono WOl tAIKU va nEAOl Tl taopponiu. Kat (JtllV
7tOpEla, avotyouv Ot aaKoi tau AIOAOU Yla Illv ~aKpo01Kovollfa Kal 111<; xp11IlOtayopt<;.
15.2 E~WTEPIKrl AVIO'opponia - AUTollaToc; hasponOlllTIKOC; MIlXa

VIO'IlOC;
L~).ldo
KKlVT)OW<; a1[OTAd ~ napaTT)p~cr~ on !:va 1[Aovacrl'a OTO lcrol;6yw nA~pwflwV

aVTaVaKAa ullppaAAoucrCl I;TtT~cr~ Yla TO VO).llcr).lCl tll<; xwpa<; (KCll u1[ppaUouoa npo
crcpopa Yla Ta ~!:va VO).licr).lCltCl) OT~V ayopa (J1JVClU6.WClTO<;. KaT ' avaAoyiCl, !:va Ul~l'a
ClVTClVClKAa unppaUoucrCl llpocrcpopa TOU EYXwpiou vOflicrflaTO<; (Kat u1[ppciUoucra sit
T'lcr~ Yla TCl ~!:va VOflio).lClW). ITplypacpTal1[ClpClcrTClHKa crTO crXT)fla 15 . 1 1' eva aplSfl~
HKO nap<i6IYfla. EivCll TO nClp<i6lYl'a T~<; CPClP).loyit<; 2.2 "BP > 0 =:> YnppaHoucra
ZitTllcrll ym TO NOl'lcrl'Cl Tll<; Xwpa<;", TO onoio 1[ClVClAClflPaVTat ow xapcv Tll<; VOT~TCl<;
tOU
Kl~tvOU.
A.A. AVTl;ouAa.1:O<;
r elT'
o
T
E
lO<agD?OlLOg :Sl3D,!,OOOlV 'Sl3D~"1J\l.llOalOll '1011?X3:

JOl"',(OO~" V "V"V C'!J
\7
"([n"r] tO~ [v"vr]

S13D!]l01~3 Sl1 3131L?,((j) O1do'(og 3D S31A0~gA31L3 SaOl 01,1. S00309901LD Slpmori.l.oTIDAnD
SUA?riOA3riDAD SUl S00301f~ao SUl "'.I.g'( ')39on3n 09 A!]l.l.O'('(DMO A!]l~tnOAo~10010nlt dX
O1.1.~JOO1 3g 0.1 "1N1/S1 OriA13gglLo 013ri 3~ltM'(DAD 'joolL9 '([6'Lllto"'D)~13) A!]l.l.00.l.D013 AOOl
S00301f~oD 1O~ ([8'LlltOOJO)~3) A!]l.l.",.I.DP AOOl S003D!]l13ri oo!.<~'( J39"'13ri 09 A<9.1.oHDAnD
A<9DooX3dl O1.1.~JODl 01 'A<9ri",dlt,(lL aO).I.0JODl 001 S3D!]llDlAnD o~g Sl1 1O~ o~l1ltAdo 13Do
~3dl.J.1l3 09 ~d(l3 n01 LWUri}lOAD U 'SolDn!>'.9A03'(lL n01 UDcrJllL}d31L AtUD 'D]liolMli> 1\3
'SltA!]lJ",d03 SUl A<9n",dlt,(lL O1J.~JODl 01 miltXg SOl SOlA<9lOlLonlDltdX )39o,(oAO
09 ~Ori01AOXll1i ~0~l1ltl0lLOd39010 aOl ~t.l.Q'( It 'SOlAgdDlL 001 )lL3 '(0'" <ifJ) O)lLoddoo
-1All ~ld3l00~3 Aln 'D)l1O Sltl 9.1.dn0103A3A Altl 13ti1]3'(OP DA 13A)31 09 SO)ri11oDl SIf~tlori
-.I.0'('(0A(u) Slil l!'(og013ri It ' jjuIWOI:I - l\opunlN ori.l.t3gglL(t 01 3ri )39n'(DAO 09 SoolLo.
'SOlDriO)riOA nOlltoltri]lOlLO 30 1301f.l.ltgo 09 'A<9rioodu'(lL O1.1.~JODl 010
SOlOriri)3'('(3 00,1.9'( 'l'doooodlL DDnonogd3lLn It 'S",X]OlOtlAV 'SOlDriD)1ioA nOluDuri)lDAD
D9 'A<9rioodU'(lL O1.1.~JOO1 OlD SOlDriDoA03,(1L 00,1.9'( 'SDd<9X SUl DnDlTi gA 01 01,1.
It '(leOl! omd) A<91ritlODl A"'A?TiOAlDTi(L)( Sood?9<13'(3 S<91D39D~ glL1
lnbn"'tf
3D 130~J.ltgo
UDltl~J DDnO'('(l'gd3lLn
"AC!lull~ODI AC!l~lJV!lOHIN 0I1lJ~D~1

'olorll).H)(u) D}od:l40
'I?)l1t\Dg'
o().g 01 sri I\OO3Dl)."(DAO l\(I'}l UtqT'iD1DlI\C\.O
U. mA}3 09
unCl,(
o
rll.J)1 -"Oll'r/
'A(9ITillom AC9)1110ri)..-D'Y,,(DA(l!) miUl!H).D 01
'od)ll 08;'
-T)1\1J It 'OriU10!).D 00311'.9191\3 310lLt,igOlOlLO O1J '''C9lTillODl A(9d39D1D m)/AQJlu"(dD13Ti 'OlDri

-1.,l1ono D10d)lD OQ.g 01 sri 131\11 08 UOCl,,(J?I\D
91LD lD1A!]lldD~3 S"'3DlflltJ 1D~ SododwodlL ~~013ri SD)lLOddoDlAO Sltl St3D<91lL1lL3 10

'SOOA?riOTIDgri(u)l1AD Mo~o)dg
D9 A3g DriDlrigA OA?~ 3ri 01d<9X.l3 MO~l''('(DlAO OA A~ori091lL3 10]000 10 1010lLO~ 'ltDltl~J
lil oAd 3 lL3~ ododwod1< It A019 'SOOX]OlDllAV 'SOOA?rionogri(u)IlAD Mo~o)dg D9 A3g 01d<9X
-.l3 3ri OriDlrigA OA?~ MO~l''('(OlAO DA A~orin91lL3 lO]OlLO 10 10l0lLl'~ ' l'dodtoodlL AUl l'Ad31L
-3~ UOltl~J U A01o. 'j01Dri.l.l"('(DAOD I)do.l.D AUlD l'dOdtDOdlL AUl l"ADAnD ltDltllfJ H
''jnotq~ 91LD D]3X101D l)))lDlDClOld3lL AnOO'9doAD DA l\C).onnem3
lO)OlLO 10 'S,lOgA31L3 SOOld<9XJ.3 glLD lD~ 'Sn01 Sod<9X Slt, Dri01rigA OlD Motil?dlD13ri 01 DA
MOW9 lO)OlLO 10 'SnOA?~ Dd<9X UlO DlDri~gOOt3 )slAOX:! SOO~ 'SOOl S,1039ltriodlL SOOA?~
AoooqJdlt'(lL DA DlA. D110,,19/\ o~~ Aftodg VA 13lt?dlL 101000 10 'SpA.(I)A.DD13 5(10 ~ :S(tOA
3D ,,?rioodlt'(1L MOAt; DA AOOX:! Soo09 91LD lD13Xd?od1L ododtoodlL It 'SOOX]Ol011AV
~)oOl
-?~
JodQ1X Stu S(lQ){]OlD)I 91L'O D}3X101D J?)lD1!>Qold311 AQODJ;JdoAD 01\ AQ.OTiOS1ll3 lO]OlL
-010 'J:;lOgl\3lL3 Snorq~ 5(0110)1 'AClOD}dlDlLDI\DlL3 01 DA A<)oTinSllL3 lO}OlLO 10 ~SDdC9X
SOml}OlD)t 9)1 1d 31OJ~3 01
91'0
IHoTitjgOD13 'j3li\O~ 5(\01 ''jnorq~ 3.0 AQ1103dUlLG lD)I
Stu
AC980AO
'j13DIf,(001< S11 91LD SI3~I)dlLD13 S11 OriDl1i9A O1d<9X.l.3 30 AOotil?dW13ri DA A~orin91lL3 10]OlLO
lO 'S]3'(00.l.D~3 SOO.1 :mimrigA OA,~ 30 DlDnlfgom3 ~ S I3~I)dlLm3 AOOX:! Sooog 'j00'(9 \l1LD
lD13Xd?od1L SOlDriAl1'('(DAOO I)do,lo Alilo DrimrigA 01d<9Xk! rnA ltOltl~J U ' Dd319>110'(DAV
dfJ = , = "I - 091 = ( 9dotDDOdn ~~ll0'.3:) - ( I1Dlil~Z \'~ll0'.3:)

, = Ol+,I- =
.:D + V:J = <ifJ
Ol = 08 -001 =.d:J
1 = 08 + , 1 + 09 =
'9dodlDOdU i,ut,,(OACl'J.
08
:)no/q~ Q110 1\(Ylj3XIOLD

AC!l)lDIDnOld3J.L
);doAV
091 = OOl +01 + 0, =

IlDlu.l}Z '.1)u'(oo\(1:1
00 (
:)nOI\~~ 3D I\CTlj3XIOlD
AC!l)lOIDnOld3l.1. )13D~V(Y)U
,1 = I.dN + XIV = V:J

, 1 :DlDri~gOOI3
,-= ,1 - 0 1 =I.dN
09
01-= 09 - 0, = XN
:~!.OJJ.DOI3
pd0000dU
nyol\r)DOllA
)odC!lX )La orlOlrl9N 01 DIA lJDl.Jl~Z DonoYY9t1d311A

)omriDJrtoN nOJd(T)XA3 n01 LJDLJ1~Z
10)1
o 1 :nlDrl~go"'3
OS :~!.OJ!.o~3
UDU1~Z
= i\('~"H1(T)dl.Jyu no]Anlo.o1
no! Orl.DDA93YU
I'}dod)DodU - ~O.LcriA9YYDi\nl pdoA't/ ' L'; L cril,JXl
Sl olx:)"~>?dl3)1 - bfnol'l.mnoo(hCiJW
lPX J~boAX>l)oi1twx 51~D9Ab3g(l)I
Ano tl<; Mo ~L(;'aEl<;, ~ OUTP~ EiVUl a~a~, AOYW rou ~~xcrvla~ou r~<; aVTlawS
KPOOOKOnia<; (arbitrage). H npooT~ Amoupy i ~ XPOVlKij uortp~o~, KUSon
~lanKij<;
QnUltltm K6.1(010~ xpovo<; YlO va aUa~ou v
Ot l(Jay{t)y~
To (1vTioTPOCPO taxU l Yl(1 T~V nEpi1lTwa~ toU
Kat Ol ~aywy<;.
EUEi~~aTO<;.
IucrTlWa ITaBpwv IcrOTlIJlwV.
Y1IO WSWToo<; OTaSEPooV loon~loov, to 1IAEOV(l(Jl1a TOU LGo~uyiou 1IA~PWl1ooV So. oo~yijaEl
O lOO1[OO~ 11 to 1IAEOV(1011(1 aUS~o~ T~e; VO~lOI1(1nKij<; paoEw<;, H, Wl OUVaKOAoUS~
1IoUanM.ola aus~a~ T~e; V0l1l0~anKije; KUKAOcpOp[ae;, M. To tU l l1l1a So. oo~y~aEl aE
~Eiroa~. H av6.Aua~ So. yivEt ~E Oml1a T~V Utopia Kal to VO~lalia T~<;, TO NoValue.
I:uvExi~OVTae; TO 1Iap6.0Ely~a TOU axijl1aTo<; 15.1 , 0.<; U1IOTESi on ~ U1I EppaUOuaa
~ijT~O~ rwv 5 NVs 1IPOtPXTal a1IO tvav stvo m
:voun'] a onoio<; StAl va aYOpaOEtI1TO
xte; OT~V Utopia aUa OEV PpiOKl tvav aVHOU~paAMIiEVO or~v ayopa ouvaUaYliaroe;
yta va ayopaal w NV5 1IA~pWVOVwe; liE stvo vOI1LGl1a. 'GAOl Ol aUot Ol 01IOiOl m
Su
110uaav va ~ETaTpt\jlOUV EUpoo OE NoValues EiXav ppi KanOlov avnou~paUolievo 0 0
noioe; ijSEAE VaI1EWTP\jIEl NoValues aE eupw.
H KevTPlKij Tp6.nE~a T~ e; Utopia rrpiTret va 1Iaptl1PEl ar~v ayop6. auvaUaYl1aTOe;,
nWAooVTa<; 5 NYs I1E aVT6.UaYlia stvo V0l1l0l1a- EOW to eupw, 11 OTOXO va ESaAi\jll T~V
U1IPPUAAoUaa ~ilT~a~ . Euv oev TO KUVEl, TO NoValue So. aVaTtI1~SE~ avatpoovw<; OT~V
1Ipas~ r~v 1IOAlTlKij T~e; awSEpu<; looHl1iae;.
'Earw on ~ KEVTplKij tpa1I E~a oivl arov stvo EnEVouTij Ilia Emrayij asiae; 5 NVs K(ll
EtO'npuul to 100ocSU Va)lo 0 rupw , Auta ta rnpw npoO"ti9,svtOl ora auvaAAay~atlK6. tTl<;
anoSt~oTO. Ol ~E!apoAte; OtoV LGOAOYl0l10 T~<; 1IOpOUOl(l~OVtal KorwTtpw.
IJoS~nK6
Xpu06\ & I:uvoUay

~allKa Alloet~ata
+s
KUX:AOCPOPOUV XPll)lu
KOIvo
Xp'1~aTO Klpwna
niarUJoTI K.T.
rpam:t;oov
KUPCPVll!lKCt o).16~
Anyu
AAA~ 1tlcr!(lJOI~
Kataetocl~
TpunEscOv
EmmyTt +5
To stvo V0l1l011(1 auSavEl TO ouvoUoYl1anKa onoStl10TO T~<; KevTplKije; Tpa1Itl;~ e; T~e;

Utopia Kala 5 NVs, Ko8w<; Kat to crUVOAIKO vpyrrnKo tT\<;. H Of: e1tltaytl, QUC;o.Vl to no.
S~nKO T~c;, mia~c; KOTa 5 NVs. tHaT~P E iTOl, AO[1[OV, ~ l06T~TO EVpy~nKou KOl1IOS~n
KOU.
MaAICJtO, '1 UlJS'lOT) trov o:uvoUay~anK61v 01t09e:J..10H.t)V eivat tOT) J..1t to 1lAOVaO~a
tOU loo~uy iou 1[A'lPW~roV . fiapaOtanKO,
Aul';~o~
:l:UYOAAa.nlattKOOy
AnoSEl1arwv
(IJAeovao~oJ
Io o~uYlou
nA~pWI1WV
o I';tvo<; mevoutfj, OVtaUUOEl ~v E1IlTOyij I1E I1ETo X<; 01';(0, 5 NVs n<; onoie; oyopa~El
01I6 toV yxooplO E1IEVouTij K. MaKpuxtp~.
o K. MOKPUXP~<;, EV ouvEXEio, KOtaStT[ T~V E1Inoyij
OlKOY O/llKO KlYTrrpo ya t o Kay~ Ko9 0n
EYW 0110 It<; KOta9tol<; Ke:pO(~l tOKOU<;.
A.A. A \I1~OIJAO:TOC:;;
ano
OT~V Tpa1IE~O
BetaBank. 'EXEl
tTjY E1tltay~ OEY KpO{~l Koytva lOOOTj/lO
.'
01 ~EmpoAES m:OUS LGol.OYla ~OUs tOU K. MaKpuxtpD Kat tDS BetaBank rrapoUGui
sovtCl t Ka.twttpw.
H BetaBank, cruYKEKp\~Eva, ntcrtWVEt tOV Aoyapta<JJ.16 Kutu8E(JEWV tOU

NY5 Kat, TaUtoxpova, cyypaq"" mo EYEPYDtlK6 tDS tDV KatatBioa
K. MaKpuXEPD Kata
E1It!ay~.
[aoAoYLG~6S
[aoAoYlo~OS K. MaKpuxtpD
BetaBank
MtoXt, - 5
E1t rray~ KevtPtK~':;
Kaw8ecrw;
Kum9 tcrE l':; +5
Tpa<ts% +5
K.
MaKpuxtp~
+5
auVOAtKOS rrAOUtOS tOU K. MaKpuX"PD OEY ~EtEPA~BD arro HI auvanayij, KaBotl to

auVOA1KO EVEpnnKO rou taOAOY10~OU tOU liEY anaE;E. AAAaE;E ~ovo D aUVBEaT] tou
rrAoUtOU taU. rla liE tDV Beta Bank, urr~pE;E taorrOoD auE;DoD taU EVEPYDtlKOU Kat t OU
na8T\tlKOU, otatl1pmvrac; Etm tTJv l0"6tll1U EVEPYl1tlK01J Kat no811tlKOU.
H Beta Bank, D orroia rrADPWVEl 'OKO Yla tlS KamBtaElS tOU K. MaKpuxtpD ana liEV
ExEl Kavva ElaOOD~a arro tDv E1lltaY~, EE;apyupOlvEl tDV ETmay~ atDv KEYtPIK~ tpti1IE!;a.
H 'EAutaia lilayptiljlEl tDV Eyypaljlij E1lltaY~ +5" Kal1llatOlVEl tOY Aoyapmo~o tDS Be
taBank Kata 5 NYs. OllaoAoYLGl1oi Kat HOV Mo 1IapouGla!;ovtat KatWtpw.
[aoAorlal10S BetaBank
EVEPYDtlKO
Xpucro, & l:uval.l.ay

~al\Ka Axo8i:j.tutu
+5
nicrr(!)O"Tl K.T.
KUPEPV11tlKO
lJo]...oya
KUKNl<pOPOtiv Xp~~.a
E."ay~ KcvrPI~,
Kotvo
XP1W.atOK1~cOna
Tpa.tc;~,
lPOl!EScilV
K.
MaKpuxi:p~
+5
-5
KUlu8taelO; (n: K f.
T paru:l;a
+5
Kata8i:m:1S T paJt~wv
./ Bet.Bank +5
E1tltay ~
va
Kata8taw;
V1PI~
A)J,.EO:; 1tlCfTwm':IS
ME ITJV Eltttay~
+5
+5 -5
(lnocrupEtCll, at
ouo n:AEUtalm UjOAOYLaIlO( UltAOn:010UVTUl w<; Ko.tO)
'''pw.
[aoAoYlal10S BetaBank
EVEpYDtlKO
Xpucs6<; & 1:uvoUay

!JanKO. A1t09tlJata
+5
TIics't"(JJol1 KT.
KuPpv'lllKn 0110
A01a
AAA.<; 1tlO'tOOCSl<;
KUKAoq>opO-Uv Xp~J.la
KOlVD
XPl1!.wlOKlpoona
't"pa1tswv
EvcpntlKO
TiaBDnKo
Ka't"aOtcsl<; OE. K
VTPLKll T pa1t ~a
KataOtoLS
K. MaKpuxtp'1 +5
+5
Kam9tcsLS TpO:1Tts(OV
./ BetaB.nk +5
nr; a7TOtEAtcrj.lU, ta cruvuAAaYj.lUnKO Ct7TOSEj.latU Kat Ot KatUSEcrlr; trov E.1l7TOPIKWV tparrE

!;OlV aTDv KEVTP1Kij tparrE!;a auE;tivovtQl la01IOaa ~E TO .AEOvaal1a wu lao!;uyiou llADPW
~Wv. ]a01(oaa 11 u S KaWe" aEIS aUE;aVCTal Kal TO llaeDUKO TDS KEVTplKns Tpallt!;DS Au
TO, OI1(JlS, dVal iao I1E TD V0111al1atlK~ paOD, H. Luvo\jll!;ovwS,
A.A. A VT~oul.(hot;
L'~V
rrEpirrTOlcrTl EAAti~~aTOS TOU lcroi;uyiou rrA~pW~WV, 8a IcrXUOUV m av,i8Era. L'.~Aa81i ,
to. cruvUAAaY)..lanXU O:rr08E)..lUta, Ot l(ata8crEl~ tOlV )..l1tOP1KWV tPU1tScOY crIllv KEVrP1K~
,pam;i;a Kal
~ vo~,cr~atlKti ~acrTl
Sa
~El(;'VOVTa,
'OO1[ooa
~t
to
tlli,~~a
tau looi;uyiou
1fA~PW~WV
revlKOtEpo., 80. taXUEl
(15.1)
AUa ~ vo~,o~atlKt] KUKAo<popia ~tta~allitCl\ Ka,a 1[OUCl1fAacrlo 1(000, A6yW ,~s 011 fit
oupyin<; xpti~aws arro tlS EfirrOptKES ,parrEi;ES (PAt1lErE ,~v evo,~m II .?). LuvEXii;ov,Cl<;
,0 1lap6.8tty~a wu rrAtOVaO~aTOS 0100 tOOi;uylO rrA~pw~wV, ~t ,~v atis~crTl ,wv Kam8 t
crEWV m~v Kev,PIKti ,parrEi;a, ~ BetaBank aUSaVtt m a1[OSt~atlK6. ,~s Ka, EXtt 1[Atov ,~
oUvatOtllta va XOPllYTt0l 1!EplaaOtEpo. OaVEla. 'EXtt 1110'1<; Kat to Kiv'ltpo Va to KUVEt
8,otl 0' KClmStcrtlS t~S crt~v KtVTP'Kt] ,pa1rEi;a Ktpoii;ouv E",tOKIO ~tKpO'EPO tOU ,~s a
yopas Kat ot apKE,ts xwpts ,irroTt. ApXii;E' t,crt ~ 8,a8lKCloia o~~lOupytas xpti~aws arro
tlS t~rrOptKts ,parrEi;Es, wS a1lo,tAtcr~a ,~s orroias ~ VO~to~aTtKtl KUKAo<popia auS6.vt,m
Ka,a 1[OUa1lAaOlO 1[006 arro ,~v aus~o~ "lS vo~tO~atlKtlS [l<'lOEWS
'()1[WS Kat m~v rrEpi1rtWcrTl tow KU~atVO~i:vwv 'OOtl~'WV, ~ ~tta[loAtl t~s vo~,ofia
tlKtlS KUKA0'l'0pias Sa <EiVE' va tt;aAtiljlEI ,~v yevEOlOUpy6 ,~S aITia, ,~v ESwnp'Kt] avt
Ooppo1lta (B? '" 0). L'~V rrtpi1rt(j)o~ ,au 1lAtov6.o~a,os, ~ aus~crTl t~S vO~lO~atlKt]SKU
KA0'l'0pias 8a OO~ytiOEt ot ~tiwo~ TOU t1lITOKiou Kal Myw amtjs, crt aus~crTl ,~s 1lapa
YWY11<; Kat trov laayroyrov, Kat (n: J.liwOT\ IOU lao~u)' iou tPEXOUcrt.OV cruvaUaywv, 01(00<;
avaA6S~KE fit to tJ1r08ElYfla ISILM. H ~EiwcrTl wu t1lttoKiou Sa ttiVEt va XE1ponpEtioEt
Kat w toOi;tiYlO xp~~atOO'KoVO~'KWV ouvanaywv.
L'~V rrEpim(j)o~ 'au tUEi~~aTOS, AttTOUpytf
av,impo<pos oTClSEpOrrO'~tlKOS ~~
xavlo~os
IUVOqJll
TIpo'i8Eai;ov,as ym tls avaAUOttS ~t TO urr68tty~a Mundell - Fleming, rrivaKas 15.1

cruVOl.Vi~El tOV tpon:o Altoupyia<; IOU autOlJ.atou maSEp01tOl'lTlKOO J..1'1xaVlOIlOU.
nlvaKac;: 15.1.lao~uVlo nAI1PwJ..lwv
To
YTT6o(lv~a
Kal AUTOj.JOTOC;:
Mundell- Fleming
Jaoi;UYlo
Icr01:q.J.ia
LT09pTj
~E
MIlXavIIJjJoC;
Mia Mana
nA~pW~WV
BP> 0
BP < 0
AU~'1(HI'Il~ vOj.J.lO'j.J.an!dJ~ KUKI..O<fJOp{a~

,/ H LM I.U:to.t01ri~"'[UI 1tPO~ to St:
MElwOTl T1l ~ VO J.1\OllOlIJ(~~ KUKA.oq>oplW;

,/ H LM J.lElato1fi~:ta l npoC; til apt
crrepa.
~l(i .
MTo~A~T1\
ba9EpOTTOII"')TIXOC;:
AVaTt)l'1011 TOU YO)l lcrlWTOS

,/ H IS !.u ;tatOms"WI npoc; 'To. apl
Ynotl)l'lcrT\ rou VO/llcrj.lotOc;

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alEpa.
Alipavorroll'l0l'l .
ABpoVOl a
VXI J
vtJjJ a 011
VUJ (T
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Ka8oTcO<; o'to.8epmv tcronl..1lWV, 1) KEVTPtK~ tp6.ncl;,o. j.J.7topel va npoJ3El O a.bpa.V07CObW'l
(sterilization): LE 7Cpai;w; O:VOIla:~<; u.yopo.<;, oyopt<; Kat nWA1\aEl<; OC,lOypo.tpWV, Ol onoi<;
ovmpmiv n, 7rpOKOAOU~V<; flTO~OAt<; T~<; VOfllaflonK1\, paaEW,.
LIllY 1tepimCO<Jll1tM;DVo.O).J.atOe; tOU loosuyiou 1tAllP(l)~OOV, 11 abpaV01tOLllCTl E1tltuy
XaVETat ~E 7rwl.~an mo KOlV6 OSlOypatpwv oSio, ia~, flE T~V ouc,~a~ TWV auvonoy~on
KOOV a1tOee~(it(l)v. ME tllv 1tOOAllOll, 11 KEVtPlK~ tpU1tEsa acpatpEl anD tllV OlKovo~[a tllV
7rlnAEOV PEU(JTOT~TO T~V o7roio o~~100py~(JE ~ 00c,~an TWV auvonoy~OTtKWV 07r09Efla
TWV Kat ~ otTio OUT1\<;: TO nl.ovoaflo TOU l"osuyiou 7rl..~pwflWV.
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cpo. ivm lCUPepVllttKU O~DAOYo.. ME Tllv 1tOOAllO~ tOUe; OtO KOlVO, ~ElwveTm loonooa to
VEPY~TlK6 Kat TO 7raS'1TlKO T~, KVTP1K1\s TponEi;~,. XaplV onl.6T~To<;, unoTleETol on TO
KOlVO nA~pWV[ fl 7rlTOy~ T~, ZetaBank.
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7rtTUnaVETal flE oyopo. ono TO KOlVO KUpEpv~nKWV 0fl0l..6ymv o';io, ia~, flE T~V flEiwa~
TWV auvonowonKwv 07rOSEfla.TWV . ME T~V oyopa, ~ KVTPlK~ Tpa.7rEi;o 7rpoatpi:pl PEU
crrOtllta crtllv OLKovo~{a.
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-5
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K vPzpvqTtKa 0
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ZetaBank +5
ITapo.crtattKU,
Alipuvollo(~o~
To KivlltPO Kat 11 avuYKll y lo aopaVOnOlll(Hl
lovt~Ovt(tl 1lEpOr[tpw
uno to YEYOVO<;
on Ol
IilUKu~6:voEU; TOU 100SUY(Ou lIA~PW ~"lV lIAElo<aKl<; lIpOKUAounUI uno OIUKU~avoEU; TOu
10ol;uy(ou XP~flU<OOlKOVO fllKWV ouvaUuywv. 01 <EAEU<a(E<; avmvuK),oUV <U; allO'l'aOEl<;
,0lV OlEevWV ElIEVDU,WV H<; '01l0(E<; 0Xl fl6vo DEv eAiyXOuv ~ KEV'PlK~ TpC11leSa K(ll ~ Ku
PEPV~O~ ,~<; xwpa<;, uUo. Kal OD)CVa 081 ~1I0pOUV KaV vu ElI~peo.00uV. E1llllAiov, 01lW<;
uvaAUe ~K e o,~v EVo,~,a 14 .5 "Ioosuyto Xp~~aToolKoVOfllKWV LuvuUaywv - E1llDpo.
OEt<;", Ot 5LO.KU~.l.(ivcrE-u.; t OU tOO ~uy{ou xpll~atOOlKoVO~tKOOV cruvaAAuywv 1tAElOTUKt.c; 0
'l'EiAoV<(ll oE lIUpo.yO"E' (lVe<;o.p,~lOU<; allo T~V XWpCl.
H ClOpo.V01[Ol'lOT\, OJ.1oot;, tXt! Opta. AEV ,.m opEl va OlUpKEGELEXt JlOKp6v, cute Kat va
lIPOO<Cl,cioEl T~V EYXWP lCl OlKOVOfl(U UlIO OlUPK~ EUE(flflum ~ lIAEov6.o~Clm lOU lool;u
yiou lIA11PW~wv.
l:T11v lI ep (mw~ lIAEovo.0flClTO<; TOU lOO!;uy(ou lIA~PWflWV, ,0 OPlO lIpO epXe,(ll UlIO
to 0l1JlOOlOVOJllKO K6crto<; tWV cruvallaYllunKWV anoOqultWv. I:UYKEKPl)..lVo., 11 KEVtP1KTl
,pcmESU T~ <; Utopia KEpoi!;El Ko.1I0l0 e1ll,OKIO yla ,Cl ODvClUClYflClnKo. ,~<; Clll09tflClm: Ei
vat t o EnrroKlo Kota8tCiEwV Ot EUPOO, OOAaplo. ~ of 01t0l00~1[OtE ~tvo VOJllOl..lo. tlVUl to.
0.1[08l1o.to., Avto riVal Kata Ko.vova xa ~rrt'A6n:po ano to E1tltOKlO lWV KU~fPVlltlKWV 0
flOAOYWV TCl olloiu XP~<HflO1l0l0UVTUl YlU H<; lIpo.<;EI<; aVOIK1~<; uyopo.<;. AuTO oe TO ElI110
KIO lIA11PWV EI ~ KUPepv~a~ 01Ou<; Clyopuo,e<; ,WV OflOAOyWV.
E a o 15.1. To A OUIOVO IKO KOUTO T Ali avoTTOI - UEW
0EWpiO"T( Tr"]V TT(pirrTWOl1 orrou TO TTAEOVaOIJO TaU loo~uyrou TTAl1PWIJWV (IVOI NY5 8{<;, 11100TJIJfo S
= NV10/, TO ETTITOKIO TaU NoValue i;w= 8%, TO ErrlTOKIO TaU EUpW if= 5%, K0111100TIIJio oTo9EpO .
.,/ Arro Tllv OU~l1or) TWV auvaMaYIJanKWV arr06(lJelTWV KOTel NV5 01<;, TO orroia OVTIOTOIX0Uv OE
500 Ka"t"o~~upUl (=NV5 olq'[NVIO/) , 11 KEVTPIK~ Tpam :(a Tr)S Utopia K(pl)r~tl TOKOUC; 25 KU
l"0V-JlUpta (= 5
00* O,05). 01 TOKOI aUToi aVTIOTOIXOUV Of: NV250 KUt"0JlJlUpta (= 2 5 "' NV I0/) .
.,/ no TO. NV5
TWV OlJo.Mywv TO orroia rrw~~eIlKav aTO rr;'aiola Tl1C; ai5pavorrol~o(wC;, 11 KU
f3,tpvllOrt rrAr)pwvEI TOKOUC; NV400 ICUt"0IiJlUPIU (=NV5 01<; .. 0,08).
au;
To (5l1IJOOIOVOIJIKO KOOTOC; Yla TIC; ApxtC;, KOI Yla Tl1 xwpa YEVIKOT(pa , ([VUlI") i5lmpopa TWV 1500 aUTwv
rroowv: NVlSO KUt"OJlJlUPIU (=NY400 - NV250).
To KOOTO<; aUTO au~dVETOI IJE TO IJ tYE80<; Tr]<; ai5pavorrol~crEW<; KOI Tr]i5la cpopa TwV 1500 ETTlToKiwv.
A.A.
AVT~ouA<iTO<;
Yrro TO papOSTOU oTHlOmovO~LK01; KO<nOUS, OL Apr}.s tT]S xropas ea avaYKa<nouv K,mOLa

<my~~ va EyKataAtiljlow tT]V rrOALtlK~ tT]S aopavorroL~"ms. navtms, EXow KaTCOtO rr
pLeWpLO rrlAoy~s tOU "XEtLK01J xpovou.
A vtLe'tffiS, "TT]V rrEpiTttm"T] AAti~~atos TOU ",o/;uyiou nAT]pffi~rov otv 'xouv rroU,s
rrlAoYES: Apya T] y p~yopa, ea Ef,avtAT]eOUV ta auvaUCly~anKa anoeEflara, aq>atpwvtClS
TT] oUVaTOTT]ra TT]S KtvTPtK~S TparrE/;T]S va c;aAEiIjlt TT]V urrppaUou"a /;~TT]"T] YLa TO
SEvO v O ~L"fla - TT]V onoia avtavaKA6. TO 'AAt t~~a. EKou"a aKOU"a, T] KVtPtK~ tpan/;a
ea avayKa"ti va arpij"" va AttToupyija" 0 <naepOrrOLT]nKOS ~T]xavl"fl6s.
Ev KClTClKAtiot, aTT]v rrpirrTm"T] smTpLK~S avt"o pponias, T] aopavonoiT]"T] ~nopd
va KaOUaTEpij"" TT] AttToupyia TOU aUTo~aTOu <HaepOrrOLT]TlKOU ~T]xavta~ou. " tv ~no
pEi va tT]v arrotpt ljlt. Erpoaov T] aVLaoppQ1[ia auvXi/;" va unapXt, ea rrpt nt va avtt~
t{01W)'tEi.
15.3laopponia aTrlV Ayopa 1:uvaAAaYllaroc;

Kata ra Lmeara, yta TT]V aVaAU"T] TT]S t"opponias "TT]V Ayopa Low:dlayI'Clro, ea rpap
~OaT01JV ta t'''''Epa nprora pij~ara t o aAyop(9~ou tau rrivaKa 7.2.
npw
1
a ou
ple~o
Errtoij OL cruv8ijKES npo"rpopas Kat /;T]tij"EffiS "tT]v urra EStn"T] ayopa auvOljli/;ovtat <nO
t"O/;Uy1O rrAT]pm~WV, T] Otp1iVT]"T] TmV aXE"EffiV ~tasu t mv KUpimv ~EraPAT]tWv aVaYE
taL "TT]V OIp1iVT]"T] tmv KUpimv flETClpAT]"nV Ot orrois rrT]pa/;ouv tiS auVt<nw,,S t OU
Auto Ex! ijOT] yiv!, yta ~v to ",o/;uYIO tpxouarov cruvaUayrov <no KErpCWltO 7, YLa
o to tao/;uylO XPT]flatOOLKoVOfltKrov cruvaAAaYrov aTO KtrpaAa10 14.
Xaplv uKoAias tT]S au/;T]t~"ms, avaAutat to '''O/;UY1O nAT]p m ~wv TT] C; Utopia, tvro
o urroAo\1[0S Kaafl0C; aVtLaTOlX" aTT]V Eupm-/;wvT].
To tao/;uY Lo rrAT]pffi~wV tT]S Utopia rrplyparpEtat arro tT]V siam"T] (1 5.2). H flta
pa"T] arra to rrpwT o , ~ , "to O1iTPO EYIV fl pa"T] tT]V si"m"T] (7.8) yta tlS saymyt s,
(7.9) y,a tLS EtcraYffiYS, Kat ( 14. 11) y,a to "'O/;UYLO xpT]~atOOtKovO~LKWV cruvanaywv.
f,a tTl ~titPa"T] ana to OEUttpO ,~, <no tpito, au~1[tUXeT]KaV Ol EStcrwa"s (7.8) KaL
(7.9) "to tao/;uyto tpXou"wv auvanaywv.
BP.
BP ~ CA +CF =(X -1M + NFI)+CF

=
X(Yr,R )- IM(Y.R)+ NFl +CF(i;v,i~,,S"1 [NV/lRP~ LP)
=CA(Y"y,R ) +CF(i:v,i~, ,S'+I [NV/lRP~ LP)

Os
(15 .2)
cruvij8ffiS, ra np0"T]fla +/. rravm ana KaO ~taPAT]Tij rrpo"olOpi/;ow tTl OTI'
Kij/apVTlnKi] rrioparn] ~ias ausiI"Ems TT]S tL~ijs TT]S "to
XaptV uKoAias, ov XPT]""
BP.
~01tOlEirat 0 O {Ktrl~ tOU :W0VOD, " 61COU
DEY
ElVOl m[QA:utw<; unupo.itlltOC;.

~'Pavi/;ovtat a8POL<mKa,
RP+LP,
EnlCJllc;,
to.
a"rpaAt<npa KtVOUVOU Kal pu<natT]raC;

Olatt <"TlV
rrp aST] dvat ESalpttKo. I)U"KoAOva ra Sxmpi"oufl. HAOS, ov yiVEtaL avarpopa aTa Ka
"tT] auvanayrov ra orro ia OEY aUai;ouv cruxva.
Kat' avaAoyia ~E tT]V Ef,i"ffi"T] (13 .2), T] rrpawanKi] taot1~ia tT]C; Utopia oivEtat
arra tT]V si"m"T]
PNV
IS; [/NY
pc.,
A.A. AVTt;OUNX TO<;
PNV J
Pc,S, [NV/]
10
EV1)0YEViC; KG! E~WYEVEfC; METOIlAIjTiC;.
Uaov aCjlOp6. aTIlv oVO~aaUK" ",ou~ia, S[NV/EJ. US E~aywys, X. Kat T~V npay~anK~
Lcwn~ia, R, EiVaL E~O)yvi~ urro Ka9atoo<; ata8tp wv la01'l~lci)V Kat EVOOYEVi<; urro Ku8
atWS ~1apl.~tWv taou~tWv.
laopporrfo.
H av6.l.u~ t~S taopponias yiV1at ~ t~ j30~OEta tOU ax~~aTos \5.2. LE aUTO, Ot oElKtES
A, B Kat r npoaotOp il;ouv US EVOOYEVEiS ~Empl.~tts.
Ix~~a
15.2.
AvaAua~ T~C; E\WTEPIK~C;
laopporriac;
To loo<uYlo nXl1Pw\Jwv Ivai 100 IJE MlllSEv

Enn6KIO
iA . -.... ........... .
~iA
7--------------- f B
Y
EIOOOr'lj.JG,
napaywy~
'Emw 6n 0"1"0 OTlI.U:io A, ).1 cruv1TraYj.lVe<; YA KUL lA , 'TO tcrO~uyLO 7rA'lPOO!lcl)V

aopponia, o~l.ao~.
lVOI 0"1:; 1
MEmpaivovms an'; TO (JWdo A (JTO (J~~Eio B. TO ",ol;uyto nl.~pw~wv yiv1at UEt~~a

UK';: BPB < O. !:UYKeKpt~tva. ~ aUS~(J~ TOU EYxwpiou et(JOo~ ~atOS altO YA ae YB ltPOKa
l.i aUS~(J~ tWV etaaywywv Kat ~Eiw(J ~ TOU t(Jol;uyiou tPEXOU(JWV (JUvaUaywv.
Y. > YA =:> 1MB > IMA =:> CA. < CA A

To t(Jol;uylO xp~~aTOOtKoVO~tKWV (JUvaUaywv SeV 1t~p6.I;tat, KaOOti OEV ll1ap6.l.l.
tat
to E1UtOKtO.
iA a~t6.pl.~l0
=:> CF.
= CFA
!:uvSutil;ovms, TO t(Jo/:;tlYtO ltl.~pwllwv (JTO (J~~Eio B eiV(lt xa~~l.6tpo lOU avtt(JTOixou

(JTO a~ftio A.
BP.
= CA . + CFB < CA A + CFB = CA A + CFA = BPA = O.
fta va 1tavt 1.8Et TO taol;uylO ltl.~pwllwv (Je t(J0pp0ltia. ~ lliw(J~ lOU t(Jol;uyiou tpEXou
awv (JUvaUaywv nptnet va avttamO~t(Jti a rro ",orro(J~ aUS~ (J~ TOU l(Jol;uyiou xpl1~aTo
OlKOVOj.l lKCllV cruvaUaymv, CF. f lO. tllV uArulaia a7W tltltUl a.u~l1(nl lO\) tyxwp(ou ll LtO
11
"""gD,?1htOH :S13D'!'90OlV 'S'3D~1JV.l,,1J"1l '''''i,?X:r

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<:1
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'UO Oll.9i)'1 !39 1..t~(\D D/\ 13lL~dlt
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.:iJ 'AOJ}l)'(l)dl3~ I,tOd~3 ,>l)lAtp'(l)~Odlt ''>3d31D?gd3~'ll3 (tpdn3 01) Dl1m119A OA?l '>13D~gA3ltS
'>11 13Dl,tlDDll)~ l)8 '>?lh'(dIJl311 '>)3A3,1.OJl3 '>11 '>?lnl) 9ll1l 3l0ll~lgmo 3D hDUl~1l D}y\!
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\0
'5D)110ddOOI 51u 5?YO!lD1311\1

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-og lDA!3 d :J 01 119
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O3d3lD?gd3~ 'lt3 'l)A)3 D9 '>DdtpX '>hl l)riOlri9A OlD '>'3D<)gA3ltS ' 0
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-I itS 01 13A)Ddd3ltn '>l)dtpX '>h1 0I~9'11t3 01 AIJl9 'l)d319~lln'(DA'V '0> dE! 'Dl1l1, s,(,(? 0l11)~
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~ lD)I pd31d31!.(l ~)lllUA(lg
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tuJ3e ~)]L<\ U l;Llnv
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-,(l)AnD AOll lllilI3'(l)~S Ahl 311 '>Ol'(W 'AOJ1Il'(l)dl3> Atp~\lngA3ll3 AtpA93\g A0l1 '>0l311 \t A\~ '>Ul
hllOld?9n,,(3lll) ud\t'(lt Ahl 3ri 1Il13?!lAnD O)01m 01 o)3Tllw 9 'Y"( l)A? ''>Olri 9 '13XdlJltA
'lw)'(~ ~l>1139 13X~ l)A 13ll?dll ' 0=d8 o'(odri~" 3ri ''>OlIlri,l.,?'(
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'0 = idE!
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SI OID'("m3)1- D)iloAOX1000X"1"!
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3D9dQI1/\0 S~l(T)Q[Dnyo SUJ. nOQ91d3ll SU1 10)[ SUI\~no/\ogrlDYld3llr1nD- 1101.1\1;11 10i\]3 DB e!dOln SLIl
01)lC)lLll3 01 S3jnUOOI S~d3BO.lD 9lln 119 13.1..l4ygodll U)[~BAnD U f!')i\3 :i\M!)l01Ill3 SDjnOl\nQoDl U)lI;9AnO
lu 3rt Q.logrlno IM)3 i\3Q ~M3rhC) SIJJ.C'!'ldll )13 0IOllo O.l 1111 13Xdl)lln Old9l\30 Oi\3rtf)oAlJodll OI)Q oq
J\(y)PIO.1I1l3 A(Y)~ D~ DJ\nQODI
>I .
9"nl 1 3
D!A(T) r1nl ' ~ ' S ~ 0139"3.
.A",.I.onOA[ll) A,!,)lnloAO)l100mnudX Ol J.(I~ODl

OlD OAC)T1 fX9 10)1 D]nOAO)(lO AU1 U,,(9 3D ) "OpillODl )Vd39D1D JU1 S313lt?AnD 10 1D1AO()"'(DA
-0 'SlTlri9 '~UlW'H - 1l.punW 01 3W 3J::< U1 3n J3SXOA[ll) 3Xp onllod?lLri[ll) Olg) 0.1
' ~)4111 'X01L lpIl1orionioA
uriOA91(1"o 1301!)(D"O DA }3dOllri A3'V "01.)l.911ll3 Dldc;>X.t3 D1 10)1 o}domo"'()(Cl.)( ~)(llDri01riOA U1
'" 13XJ.T(3
A3g mdOl[) Sod,?X
S~d~lri
SU1 D)3lllldl ~ldlA3~ U 'S3)rinolll S?d300lll 9lLA
Sl o,x)''(~xh3)I - Xll'rloI\OXloOOXXlIAJ: lXlX SfboltXllXl'rllioX S1Sbt{:I\CB90)I
nap6~ola TTEpIOPIOTIK~ Enii5paO'l 80 tXEI KOI !Jia aMIl

VOI-lIK~<;; TTOAITIK~C;:: '1 XElportpEUOf] TOU loosuyiou TpExouawv
rrOpEvtpYE10 HIt;: ETTEKTOTlK~S: oru.loOlo

auvoAAaywv Kal " GUV O' UT~ 61EuPUVOll
TaU 0XETIKOU E!.AEiI-lI-lOroc; - (aV urropxl. SMTTH: aXETIKO Til aU~~TllOil Yla Tflv ETTf6pao'l TWV lJo
KPOOlKOV0I-lIKWV aVlooppomwv OTIlv EVOTl'lTO 14.5 "lao~uYlo XprllJorOOIKovOl-llKWV ruvaAAaywv ETTlOpaOEIC;~ .
To avwTtpw Elorwou VTol OTI 01 CTo8ptc; 100111-11<;: OTTOITOUV IJEyoAIl TTElSapxio OTrjV OIKOVOIJI
lJ
K~ TToAITIKr'l : Kal orr] i5rIlJOOIOVOIJIK~ Kal orr} VOIJIOl-laTIK~.

Ev OUVTOI-IIO, '1 6ruJOmOVOIJIKr'l TToAITIK~ rrptTTEI va Xpr101IJOTTOiEirOi IJE <pEI(5W, we; EqI(l:ipEia , Kai
xwpiC; va umJPXouv l.u:y6Aa u..AElI-II-lQTO TOU TTPOOTTOAoYIOJ..IOU KOI TaU loo~uyiou TPEXOUOWV cruva)..
Aaywv. ~la<popETlKa , ov Sa I-ITTopi va XPIl011-10TTOl1l9Ei TTEKTOTlK~ TTOA1T1K~ O TTEpiTTTwoll avaVKIlS,

Via Tllv aVTlI-IETWTTlOIl KOTTOIOS" i5laTapax~e;. Mw.iJvETOI KGI TO lTEp,SWPIO oaK~oEwS" ETTEKTOTIK~S" TTO
AITIK~e; Via TTPOEKAOVIKOUe; AOvOUe;
H 6 vOIJIOl-lanK~ TTOAITIK~ TTpt TTt:I va Eival TTPOOOVOTOAIOIJEVIl OTIl 0I 0 T~P'101l Tile; 10oTll-liae;.
Eav, VIO TTopaOEIVI-IO, lJia KEVTP1Krl TpOTTE<O TTpOOTTOe~OEI va aU ~~OEI Til VOl-IlOI-iOTIKrl KUKAO<popfa ,
TTOAU aUvT0l-la 80 ~avTA~o1 TO aUVOAAaVI-I0nKcl Tile; OTT08EI-IOTa KOI 90 ovaVKoOTEi vo EVKOTOAEI4JEI
Til ora8Epcl IOOTIIJIO.
Mia Mall aro ooj3op6 aUTO I-IEIOVtKT"I-I0 TWV ora9Epwv IOOTIIJIWV 90 ~TOV " ETTlj30M ouvoA
AOVI-I0TlKWV m:plopl0l-lwv (!3AETTETE Trlv EvoT"ra 16.2 " MIKp~ XtiJpo - ETTEKTOOEIe;-). Orrwe;, OIJWe;, 60
oU<IlT"eEi OTllv EvOH1TO 17.3 "nEpi TWV IuvoAAOVI-IOTl KWV nEpIOp10IJWv", aUT~ 'l AUa'l EivOi I-IclAAOV
XEIPOTEP" aTTO TO TTp6~ArU.Ja .
IUOT/lIla Mnal3"IlTWV IOOTIIl IWV .
Yn:6 KaeEatOO~ J1Erap"-l1tOOv IOOl"lIlHl)V, 11 OXEoll ES( I I = S( tOXVEI J10VO OE KOTI10TOOll \

o o pporrfo~, OtOV EXOUV (nOIlOt~OEl 6A~ Ot OAUcnO(JJTE~ oVttOp6.0El~ Kat 01 EVOOYEV ti~ IlE
TaDA~TES OEV ~TaDanOVTat. EKTOS, DDaiws, a.v Ka1IOla olaTapaXTl 901 O Kiv~o'1 ~ia
YEa UAUOlO(JJt~ uVTiopoOll TJ orroio eo OOTJYTtOEt a t VEO 100pponio. Auto tOX6Et Kat Y10 tTJ
auvoUaYJ1otndt tcrot1J1io II onola, uno KOeEcrtOO~ )ltOPAlltOOv tcr0t11l1Wv, Eivot EVB oyEV~~
~TaDA~TTl
LUVEncil~, Kat urro Ko6Otw~ )ltUPATJHDV toot1~llcilv to EmtOKlO loopporriuc; ELVOL i NI'
" ic + RP+LP. Ev a VTl9ott, O~WS, flt TIS maStpts "'OTl~ltS, Kani T~ olapKtla TWV a AU
mOWTWV aVTliipaowv Sa tiVOl E,5" 1 '" S, WI, ~ q)Qp~oYTl T~S <Y1JV9TlK~S looouva~{as
tWV ErrttOKlwv, iNV;;t;. if + RP+ LP.
Q 1IiVaKas 15.6 <Y1Jvolj/l!;a TIS EVOOyvdS Kal t~,"YEViS w:raDA~TES y,a mlOT~~a~
TODATlTWV 100T1fllWV. ria tuKOA6Tp~ mlYKP"''1 flt TIS moSt pES 100Tl~iES, 01 fltTaD)'TlT&;
01 orr01E<; OA"-a.~OUV orro EV50YEVE1<; OE E~WYEVEi<;, ~ ovnotp6cpw~, EmollJ1oivovtU1 Otllv
9E0'11IOU dxav OTOV 1I{vaKa 15.3 ~t 011IATl o1Uypa~~loTi (- ).
nfvaKa<;: 15.6. EVl50YEVr.fC; KOI E~WYEVr.i<; MnopAI1Ti:<; - Mna(lA'lTi"j looTl~ia

Tile; n A'l8wpaS TWV LEVOplw v KOllllOTOPOXWV TTOU MTTOPOUV va AvaAu90uv
EvOEI~'l
MtTa~A~TES
Ayopa
EVOOYEVts
AyaOwv & Y7r17P(flWV AD, C, YD , S" TA. SG, 1M, NX.
CA, AS. Y, I, i,
X.R
Md, Y.i,
XP1!Jaror;
H,
IovillciYllaro,
~~~
El',WYEVEIS
EYD, V NC, MPK, W. NFl (=0 ),
TR , INT, INVx, G. I , TR,
~ YJ' p
P,
e~6~6I'~6I" (ti 1f!1!i~I!!iI!M
;\If, H , EvvaJJ.a y,uariKa AlfoBtlJara
fJ., i, EtS,., h RP, LP, Koat'l LV
1M, CA. CF. BP, i, S
vCtMaYwv, LUVCtIJ,O:YPO:TIKO{
PlOP U1 fl Oi
EnEKTATIKH ./IHMOIIONOMIKH nOAITIKH . APXIKTl

BHMA 6.1. G
BHMA 6.2.
loopporria: OTO
O~~ElO
n-
E.
t : TlI S ~'(ar01IU;TUl1IPOS TO ot~la, OT~V IS ' .
NEa (JwrcplK1100ppo1Iia OTO
A.A. A vT(auMiTo,
OTl~ElO
E'.
22
,,
BHMA
BHMA
6.3 . 1:TO E', BP>O,

TEwW:rPll<lJ., to a~~(o E' ivat 1[(IVW an6 t~V Ka~miA~ BP=O.
Aoy"al, ~ aU<;~ffi] tOI) tao~l)y (OI) xpll~aTOoIKovO~IK",V ffi)vaUay",v, A6yw tt]s
al)<;~aws TOI) lI(toKlOI), KIl plapxEi t~S flEl",aws tol) laoi;l)y[ol) tPoxol)a",v
auvaAwy",v, A6yw tllS al)<;i]aws tllS lIapaywy~s KUi t~S ffi)V al)t~ al)<;~aws
'{wv taaycoywv .
./ MtapoATl tOI) CF: iE,> iE => CFE,> CFE : CF t
./ Mta[loAi] tOI) CA: YEo> YE=> IME, > IME => CAE' < CAE: CA t.
6.4. Am6~atoS ataepOlIOl~tlK6S ~~xavla~6s: BP > 0 => v0J1111J1a t: S[NV/]

=> lIpawatlK~ avat[~~all : R t
=> ~ IS fltatOlI[~tat "POS ta aptatpa,
Noa laoppolIia ato a llllEio E. (flati;)
I-Xr1jJa 15.7. ETTtKTaTlKrl fI..'1jJoalovO.,..IKr; noAITIKft- Mno(3A.'1Tr; laoTljJ fa
AiJE.To(3A'1TO Elo6orllJO, A",'l(i(3A'110
ETTITOKIO, AVOTTOH: A(o",OllKr'j
nO.\ITIKri
EnllOtuo
..........- - -BP=O
;E+RP+ LP t---------~~-+_--
y
Elo66r)va,
nopaywy1j
Ta PTiflata 6.5 KUl6 .6
A,A,
Avt~oUAaWC;
ffi)VOljl i~OVtal
mov lIiVaKa 15.7.
23
1JlXSgD\,OlOg :SlSD,!,gOO1V 'SlSD~"O\J"'lOOlOll 'lOl"(\,X::r
\7Z
"OOl,?,(OO)lAV "VY
",Wl AlllD 'r,n~3~ Xll )odlL lD13))llOlDl3Ti Wl
"J, H
Cd!
H <=
'lw1!V ~~llDTID1rio, U lD13AI}~OD
'gAl0~ 01 glLD A(I]ml}dA.ol~D I}dO!.D ~~D'(U~ ')l}dO,lD )~l~lOAD )13~dll 3W
"J, W "~"9 VWH8
"3 o)3rilLD OlD :DjllOddoDl ~lXdV "H>tlllVOU H>tlllfWl IWON H>t llVl>t3U3
"D r~ ~N rl :A,!,ADllD~ AOJjDOriu~ AOJllLDlt~~D Alu3ri UDj m')3 AC:>AOJAD~
-3 Ac:>dD9D~ 'OJl lWOJ)3ri H ")OJ3D~lU) )lU lLDlt~~D AUl )OJd~'(1l13)jri9DlDllAD 'Ac:>AOJ!.D013
"'''' )OJ30~~OD )Ulm~ 'c:>AOJ!.D~3 AOJl )(I)3D,!,13ri )Ul Dri03'(~1011D 'XN 'A,!,,((I]AD~3 A,!,dD9m1
AOJl UO(l]j3ri )(I)30~rillDAD )Ul (1),1.1''( H "00l ~OltrijlDAD )DlA,!,,(mlOdll 1D~ X>lOriAI},(,(XlAOD
I}dO!.D AUlO Dri01rigA O1dc:>XJ.3 01 mA lLDU1~) Ul )DlMAI}~OD 'Ddc:>X UlD mXl'(l}m3~ ""~1l0~ "
-AS1l3 lD"'0~'(300dil "'~ 09lt~OD DA ,,"OA)31 m~911113 Dl ')OlDri~dX I}dOmDOdll 'Ul U1U'(V
-1}13riD 3 W ")OlDri~dX )(I)3D~llt) )lU UOlt~ ~D 30 ') ~10D (I]O~ri 'lD~ )~!.(I]!.DdXlll ) lt1lLDlt~~D
'!I'(I .
OrillQ
);::1
30 )3AU~O ~~1l1'( 01l ~lriOA0100riUg ~~llDl~3lL3 H "~'(lLXl 1}~1l3XD mAj3 lLDltA~~3 H

.AQmillo!)1 Ac;>d3SD1D A(1)l LwOOllt}d311 ALan
1l() 91LD 013H!l i\D 0.1 ~)lllDt1.p3"'(310lLnAD lDA,3 ~)l1l1"(OlL ~)llrlOA01DOrlltq It 'SnlAOJ1fl\oAn3:
"UD
-AfL993lD)I U138}li\D (\Lu JOdlllOi\p AC?lUYij'.o13r1 AC?t\3,J.,ogA3 AWl ':r't00D13 r11 0 't :; '''<9ADling AOO),DOrl
S,!)lllDldotd3l! liooouqd3lt ,,1.111 :IlDropnlJ.:;:
A(l'J:l )(l)30,!)l3Ti ~gD'(ltg <'j ~)llll'(Ol! 'j ~)llli Ol\o\DOrl lt g
-lI g
o
'9 DTH)O
dB.
'JJ]lloddODl 3:1'
010 flO])tOlllL3 {to! 'jro30~~nD
Stu roJ..9V
.-J:J
J,
dfl
9d3em 3:
50~Drll.r;r(tht(l:I 'l}dol.V
D)1loddo.ol Y){lXdD i\UW S(TllL 9 lDAp \UU.'(OD13ri Spi\3,togi\3 10
)3""(0,
:50U)rI{ldX '9dol.V
UD Ln1!lDAV
I!
.l-
5111 mJ...9V
(.I-~' fA)X =X
(n) Uo")D)~3
,j,
A"'+(-!.~)!V=fVI
(06"0 UO")O)~3
H N+j XN=V:J
PVI-t x =XN
UO())D)~3
.-! lD~ a.-! "rol~~9913rio ())A9V
(An) UO")D)~13
.1N/-II.1- -!. D- Ji~ 9S
(C Ll uDroD);3
(0 n)
S(l)3!) ~nllnAn S ~:Xllom1ol\o
"9 oriyg 010 0 < df! roA9V
Os
j
U1~~g~13riv
dS
V:J 'XN
WI
mu"'(g~13rlV
C >I DnyXo 01 9llV
SV
Ul~'(g~13rlv
.-! =SV
(zn) O1U19,001
:J
aA
av
U1U'(V ~lsrlV
sv = ar <D)l!oddoDl :~:r
( In) UOOOD);3
OlU~g~13rlV
101u'(g~13nV
A ulu~g~13nv
a.-! 01U'(g~13rlV
A U1U '(g~1311 V
(o\iL) UDOODt13
)31 u'( g~13nv
! ol~~g~13n V
(D9"L) UDOOD);3
(,'L) UD389uA
y~1l031000'(UV
(oZ"O UO")D)~3
[",I onyXD 01 9"V
VJ
ulu~g~13nV
ulu~g~ 13 nv
.-!
"pw3dhJl,{ y MPOV,(", ~do.(",
D!,tO"'(Oll.IV
)~"'(og013I'11 "
Lwl\nSt;\31D)l
~lU"'(g0131'11
541\3,1..091\3
Acyl!UY'tf013VIJ i\C'!"li\3AoQi\3 i\(T')1 5l)YO't!'OBV\lUOi\nerI31D)(

O!r1U.ODII,.I1uYOOllW -l.,nulIYou l;I)m1oAOIDorU.lV !,J>lIlDl)llll3 . L'S ~ ~O)lDA!U
S L OlX>'(I}<h3)I - lOlnOhOXlOOOXlOW llOX 5fOOAlOllOnttbx 5130\,' 03\10)1
BHMA 6.2. Nea GWTf;PIK~ laoppolIla mo a'lflelO E'.

BHMA 6,3. LTD E', BP < O.
TeW/Jerp' KG., 10 a'lfllO E' iVat K6.10l alIO l'lV Kaflm)A'l BP=O.
AOYlKG., ~EU:DVOVtat Kat to 1aoSuytO xpll~atOOtKOVOJ.lLKWV cruvaUaywv, )"6yoo
tf[<; )lEtcJ:)aW<; 'tOU E1tlTOK10U , Kat t o laos,UylO tpExouarov cruVUAAUYWV, :\oyw
11]S auc,ijoEWS l'lS rrapayw"'f1is Kat l'lS OUV aUlij auc,ijaEws lWV Eloaywywv,
./ MElIlBol.il lOU CA: YE,> YE =:> IME,> IME=:> CAE' < CA E: CA J.
./ MElapol.fjlou CF: iE' < iE =:> CFE, < CFE : CF J.,
BHMA 6.4, AU10flalo, ma9EpolIOl'lnKo, fl'lXaVl"flo,: BP<O =:> vO/JIG/Ja
=:> lIpawanKi] UlIOllfl'la'l: R J.
=:> 'l IS flElalOlIii;Elat lIPO, la 6EC,\6., "l~V IS ',
Nea laoppolI[a 010 a'lfl10 E ", (rl(ni;)
J.: S[NV/] t
Ixf)~a 15.8. ETTKTOTIKri NOI-Jla~aTlKrl nOhlTIKri - Mna~A'lTrllaOTI~fa
YlJl'lA61CPO Elo6i5rUJO, A~ETOI3Alpo EmToKlo , ATTOTEA[C1J,JOllKrl nOhlTlKrl
ETTIIOIOO
LM '
i,+RP +LP I---------~:------~\~--- BP=O
r E,
rE ,
r
EUJ06t)tJo,
napovwv!\
Ta Pilfla1ll6.5 Kat 6,6 auvo'Vii;oVlIll OlOV lIivaKfl 15,8,
25
nOAI1IKri - Mna~Arslri IUOTlllia

KOTEUSUVO'l METO(3oAriC; TWV Ev(joyvwv METaj3AIlTti.)V
niVQKOC; 15.8. EnEKTQTIKrl NOlJ10'1lOTlKri
Ev80yv~<;
MTaPA~T~
KUTru9uvO'l1
M<Ta~oA~<;
AltlOAoyia
Ayopo Aya8ciJv & YmlPUJUVV

Y
Ano TO
crx~~a
15.8
A~tT<\PA~To
Ano TO
crx~~a
15.8
AS
i
i
i
AS~Y i
TauT6T~Ta
1:< loopponia, AD AS i
E~{a",a~
(7.11)
E~ia",a~
(7.4a)
C=C+bYDi
E~ia",a~
(7.20)
TA
i
i
A~ET(\PA~TE<;
AD
YD
C
YD= (l-f)Y
TA
+TR + INT
= IY i
AltA.ol)O'tf.:UtllCrl
A~ETc\~A~TO i
El;ia",a~
Ynoti~~o~
J.
/\6yro tTJ <; oVO~a(}n-Krl~ u1tOn~rlo"Ew<;
1M
APtPOI~
METOPOA~
Sp
SG
CA
NX
;
i
(7.12)
Yn68wT\ 0.5)
(7.60)
AiYyro BP < 0 aTO P~~o 6.3
= x[Y{ ,Ji J.
1M
Sp
M( R.1 }mY t
YD
i -
SG = IYi-G-TR-INT
i= I + CA?
E!;ia",cr~
(7.90)
E!;ioroa~
(7.2y)
E!;ioroo~
(7.7)
TavroVfra A1I:O'WIIlE:V(Jf;WV
E7U:vovl1ewv.
'-----v---->
ti
Bli1tEt Kal TOV
:rrivaKo 15.4.
NX = X ; -1M ? aUel
CA;= NX?+ NFl
A)'Opa Xpljparor;: 'OA<; Ol cvooycvdC;
(7.8)
(BAtnETE <01
'nlvoKo 15.4)
Sp ; +SG
E!;iaroa~
~.u;rap A.rl'ttc;
E!;i oroo~
(7.10)
civOlonro<; <fITJV apXLKrlloopponlo.
A 'topa Iv vaJJ.ay,u amr;

CF
J.
BP
Lru8EPO
A6yw IllS )..ltwcrws TOl)
L \croPPo1t!a, BP
1t'ItOKlOl)
mo Pft[lO 6.3
l:.l]JllWO'TJ.: LtT1V JtPlJtTWO"ll ltf:P10PlO"tl)CllS VOlllcr~IQTlKTJ<; 1tOAItlKTj<;. bTjA.abTj !.u:U.l)<1t<; tTj<; VO ~H
<1J.l.OTtKT)<; ICUKA.oq>Opio<;, M
n:u90voTj.
<
OJ.! Till:
1< I
J.., 0 1 J.l. i:wpoH<; TIllV f:VbOYevwv
~ltTaPATjT(j)V i:ivOI 1t"PO<; tTjV avti9EtTj
KU
Yno J..1tapAllTE<; taotl~{e<;) Tj VO J..1lcrJ..1anXrl nOAtnK~ eival nOAD anOteA.EO"J..1Ut1K~. uvt{SEta

uno Ot1 OtTjV m:pLntooO"Tj tW"V OtU6EPWV lCJOtlJ..1UDV. H UD~TjO"Tj tTj<; vOJ..1taJ..1UtlK~<; K1.IKAO<pO
piae; TEivEl va ).lElWVEl Ta EYXWpta ElmolCla, 08~ywvTae; aE atis~a~ T~e; napaywy~<; Kat E
KpOt<; KE<paAatoov. 'EVEKU tWV KPOWV, unOtlJ..1atm to v6~LcrJ..1a, oOl1ywvra<; oe aD~l1aTj tOOV
Kaaapwv ESaywywv KUI nEpUiTEpW atis~a~ T~ , 1[apaywy~,.
l!.HMorloNOMIKH KAI NOMlrMATIKH nOAITIKH - rvrKPlrH. 'Ooov a<popa (J'{~ V a1[OTEAEa).lan

K6T~Ta T~e; O~).lOaLOVO).llK~<; Kal T~<; vO).lLO).latlK~C; 1[Ol.lTIK~" uno ).l'[aPA~TE<; ,aOTt).liE, Ta
CJUJ..1nEpaOJ..1ara eivat to. avti6sru anD on uno cJtu6epe<; tcrOtlJ..11E<;.
26
nfVOKOC; 15.9. IUOTrllJO IOOT'I..IIwv KOI ATTOTEAEol..IOTIKOTIlTa OIKOVOIJIK~C; noA.ITIK~C;

I"otl~i(l
nOAtnK~
t.~~omovo~l~
NO~I(J~{m~
'Ev9uo 15.2. YTTEp-aKOVTla T
Lmeep~
MempA~I~
A1[OIA(J~(ln~
AV(l1l01eA(J~(ln~
AV(l1lolA(J~(ln~
A1l01eAe(J~(lnK~
laoTi ia
Exchan e Rate Overshootin
To TTPOllyoulJEVa Mo oEvciplO IJE IJETO~AIlT~ 100TIIJIo EK TTPWTIl<; o4JtwC; 6tv OUlJqlWVOUV IJE ~uo OU
IJTTEpaOIJOTO Tile; IIE, BtTOVTO<; EV OIJ<PI~OAW TIlV O ~ IOTTlaTio TOU uTT06EfYlJaToe; Mundell - Fleming.
ria Tl"lv IIE OEV TretTOI 91J0 O~IOTTlOTjO<; KoBon, we; oxtail arbitrage, IOXUEI TT(ivro: T 0 oloo(j>oAI~ouv
01 6uvcil..lEII)' Tile; oyopoe;, OTTWI)' ToviOTIlK( oro KE<paAolo 14.
IUYK(KpIIJEVa, 11 IIE TTPO~AtTTEI on TO vOlJlOlJa IJE TO ulj.ll'lAOTEPO (TTITOKIO OVOIJEVETaI VO UTTO

TIWIBEf: To U4JI']AOT(PO ETTITOKIO orr<X;I']IJIWVEI TOU<; ETTEV6uTEC; YIO Tllv OVOIJEVOIJEVil OpV'lTiKri GUVOA
AOYIJOTlKI) OTTo60G'l, AVTlOlOixw<;, TO V0I..IIOIJO j..IE TO XOj..lllAOU:PO ETTITOKIO OVOj..lVETOI va OVOTlIJilBEi:
H ovaj..lEVOIJEV'l BETIK~ ouVOMOYI..IOTIKr1 oTT06001l OTTO~IlIJIWVEI TaUI)' ETTEV6uTte; YIO TO XOIJr]AOTEPO
ETTITOKIO.
DlJwe;, OTa Mo TTPOIWOUIJEVO oEvaplo <pOiVETOI vo IOXUEI TO ovri8ETO . ITO OEVOPIO HIe; ETT(KTO
TIKr']e; 6rll..JoO'loV0I..IIKr']<; TToAITIKr)e;, TO UlVIlAOTPO EmTOKIO TOU (yxwpiou VOl..liOIJOTOe; O'TO O'I"]IJEio E', iN!'
> i + RP + LP, oUIJ~06;~EI IJE OVOTIIJWIJ(VO KOI 0X1 UTTOTlj..IWIJ(VO NoValue. ITO 15E atVOPIO HIe; (TTE
KTOTIKrie; VOIJIOj..lOTIKr'] TTOAITIKr1<; O'TO OVTiO'TOIXO Ol']J.lEIo TO XO)JIlA6TEpo ETTITOKIO, iNI" < if + RP ,. LP,
OUIJ~o6l~Et I1E UTTOTIIJWIJEVO KOI ~Xt aVaTIIJWIJ(VO NoValue.
H om:ivTI']ol']l3pioKETOI OTI"]V um:p-oKOVTIOfJ (overshooting) Tile; OV0I..I001IKr']e; IOOTllJioe;. H UTTEP
OKOvrIOl"] avo(j>pnol OTIlv um:p-ovriopool"] Til'; OVOIJCJOTlKri<; 100Tlj..lioC; OE OiaTopoxt<; - IJ(T0I30A.t<;
TOU OIKOVOIJIKOU rr(pI136MoVTO<;.
OVOAu8(i ETTlYPOIJIJOTIKO IJE TI'] ~ofl9E10 TO KOTWTEPW crxfllJOToe; TO OTToio E~IW(i TTWe; 'lIJEi
Wall TOU (TTlTOKiou , Myw ou~flO'(we; Tile; VO~IOl.latIK~C; KUKAo<popioC;. I.mop! va oUIJ13a6ioEI I.l( UTTO
TiI.lIlOl"] TOU v0l.liOj..lOTOC; EVW IO'XUI I"] rlE,
'EOTW OTt 11 Utopia OU~ciV(1 Til VOI.lIOIJOTIK~ KuKAOqlopio Til OTIYIJ~ {(). MEXpt TOTE , 11 OtKovo)Jio
Tile; Xwpo<; ~TOV OE toopponio, )JE TO ETTITOKIO va (ivOI ioo IJE Ir. + RP + LP (ovw 15taypaJ.l)Jo), KOI Tllv
10'0T1IJiO iO'lllJE NY I Off.
rvWpi~OUIJE OTt O'TIl via looppoTTio TO (TTITOKIO 80 (ivai iao 1.1 TO ETTITOKIO IOOPPOTTioC;, if;' + RP
+ LP, (VW TO VOj..llOlJO eo EXEl UTTOTtIJ1l8Ei. 'E01W OTI 11 VEO 100TIIJio toopponio<; 80 EivOI NY Il/.
AVOqlOPIKO IJE Til i5UVO)JIK~ O'UIJTTEptq>opO TOU TTtTOKiou, 1-1 TIlV OU~IlO'Il TI']e; VOI..JIOIJOnK~C; KU
KAOqlopioC; TO ETTITOKtO IJE1WVETOI. ITI'] O'UVEX(tO , Ko9we; 11 ou~ov6J.l(VIl TTapaywyr'] -oTTOTi~(QIJO . TI']e;
IJ(IWOEWC; TOU EmTOKiou- OU~OV(I Til ~~TIlOIl Xpr']I..IO'TOC;, TO ETTITOKIO aU~OV(Tar mOOIOKa Kat ETTO
vtPXETOI OTO EmTOKIO looppoTTia<; (KOIJTTUAO TIJ~IJO 010 aVW i5U:1YPOIJIJO).1
H unp-OKovnOI'j <poiV(Tot oro KOTW 616YPolJlJo. ME TI'] lJ(iwO'Il TOU ETTITOKiou, 11 to'OTII-IIO UTTOTI
)JOTOt TTEptoO'on:po OTTO 6Tt OTr] VEO tooPpoTTia: YTTOTII.IOTOI aE NY l2l, EVW 11 vEa 100TII,,1i0 loappoTTi
aC; EivOI NY 11 I.
rTIl OUV:XElO, 1l100Tl1110 OT0610KO IJEHi~VETOI OTO NV II / (KO IJTTuAo Tl.lflJ.lO). KOla TI'] i510PK(IO
Tile; )JETOIIDTlK~C; aUT~C; TTEPloi50U, TO NoValue OVOltlJOTOI.
Iuv6uo~OVTOe; TO i5uo 610YPOI.IIJOTO, KOI i5fl TO KO)JTTUAo TJ.l~1.I0TO , TTpOKUTTTEI elTJ TO XO)J'lAonpo
TOU (TTlTOKiou looppoTTioC; (TTITOKIO oUIJf3a6i~(IIJE aVOTllJWI..JEVO NoValue.
To uTT66EIYIJO Mundell - Fleming oUIJ<Pwvti IJE TI'j IIE.
eo
I flO 1!EPIOOO'tpo avaAunK~ rrapoucr1UOlt, O"I.)VlOTUTOI 'to d.uoollco ap8po ''' Expectations and Ex
Change Rate Dynamics", by Rudiger Dornbusch, Jo urnal qf Political Economy, Vo!' 84, No.6,
December 1976, pp. 11 6 1 - 1176.
A.A. A V1~OUMinOC;
27
YTTEpwQK6VTlOll - .6laypajJjJaTIK~ napouofaoll

ETTITOKIO
i,+RP+LP
1---......,---, ----, ----' , ---, --
Xpovoc;
S[NV/]
laOHl-lia
12
II
__
w ____ : ___________________ _
______ _
10 1---....,---- ,- -- ------ '- ----'- -- -,- --

Xp6vO\"
H aVaAU01'l Yla TTEKTOTIKr) liI'lIJOOlOVOIJIKr'} rrOAITIKr) ival rrop61J0Ia. AMa I'l liUvaIJIKt) OUIJTTPlqlOpd
TWV VOOYEVWV IJETO~AIlTWV EivOl apKETcl ouv9TOTEPIl . no m :p,ooOTEpe; AETTTOlJtpEIe;, OUVIOTC1TOI
TO TTpoavoc.pEpStv KAaoolKo ap8po TaU Rudiger Dornbusch.
rEVIKOTE:pa, TTC1VTWe;, 11 c.pOlVOIJEVIKr) 15lac.pwvia TOU UTTO(jEiw aToe; Mundell - Fleming 11 Til IIE oc.pEf
ATal V TTOAAofe; OTO OTi TO UTTOOElYlJa EivOI O101IKO. napo uOIo~E I TI']V OIKovolJio OE (juo O1IYIJEe;: rrplv
Til lilorapaXr) KOI Drav txouv TEAmiJOEI 6M: e; 01 aAuolliwTEe; aVTllipaoEIe; TTOU aUTt) rrp0KaAEI. SMTTT
aXTIKo Kal TI']V EVOTIlTO 10.5 "ErrE:KTaOEle; - OIKOVOIJIKr) nOAI TIKr) KOI OIKOVOIJIKOe; KUKAoe;".
'Ev9ETO 15.3. H EMrilio
(JT~V
Eupw
WV~
H EMalia, we; I1tAoe; TI)e; Eupw<wvl)e;, OEV ~.JTTop E f VO OOKr)OEI OUTOVOIJIl VOlJlOIJOTlKn TTOAITIKr;. IUI1
IJETtXEI or. tva a~IOTTIOTO OUOTl'1I10 oT08EPWV IOOTI1J1WV, OTTOU TO TTlTOKIO aTToqlooil;nal aTTo Tllv
EKT.
ETTEI(jr), OIJWe;, IJEyaAo I-ltpoe; TOU qmopiou Tile; Eival IJE XWpEe; EKTO':; Tilt; Eupwl;wVI'lt;, OTIt; 0
vaAuoEIe; So TTpt TTEI va AOI-I/3avovTOI UTT' OljJlV 01 (jIOKUl1aVOEIe; TaU EUpW. 01 TEAEUTaiEe; ea ETTIlPEO
~OUV Tie; E~aywyte; KOI Tie; Eloaywvtt; Tile; xwpae;.
OUOI0011KO, I"] EMa(jo EIVOI fJio IJIKpr) Xwpa Yla TO ETTITOKIO KOI TIlV 100TIl-lla Tile; OTTOrae; (jEV
aTToc.paof~EI Il f(jlo . KOI TO Mo ErVOI E~WYVEie; I1EmI3AI'lTte;.
15.5 .o.IaTapaxt<; aTTO Tl'IV Ayopa l:uvaMaYllaTo<;

E~E'!ai;oVTat
Tt''''pt<; Starapaxt<;:
au~~,,~
TOU ol8vou<; mToKiou,
au~~a~
TWV aOlpaAl
mpwv KlVOUVOU Kat pEU01"OTTl"ra<;, U1[Ott!lll<JTl TOU vo~.i(J~.aTOC;, Kat aU~ll(JTJ TTJC; avallEVo
~v~S lOoTl~ia<;
(NV/).
fla 1lpaYJ.lattKU yqovota "Ta o1[ota ea 1l1l0pOUOav va 1tpOKaAOouv amtc; 'Ctc; aA)..a~
yES, PAt1IT T~V v6'~Ta 14.5 " ]aoi;6yto Xp~~aTO otKov o ~tKcilv l:uvaUaycilv - EmSpa
act<;", Ka8cils Kat Ta 1IOAUCipte~a tv8Ta a oAa Ta KcpaAata TOU PtPAiou.
28
KU~EeVnQlC Xen Wl(tQ(YOeEC"!Xl MClXeOOlXOvo"lCl -
AIi~'1(nl
K etpdtActlO 15
TOU AI9vou~ ETTlTOKiou .
H avtlAu<J11 rrapoucrt(x1;nat mo (lx,;~a 15.9. XitplV T~S OtKovo~fas TOU Kl~V OU, ~na1;o
VIm tUut Oxpova O11tEpl1t'n\)al<; O'tu8pwv Kat ~ta~AT1to)V laOtl)ltwv.
L aUT6 ~oll8a to on m ~,;~am 6.1 - 6.3 TDU aJ..yop(8~ou ivat m iOla Kat (Ins OUO
1tplmrool<;.
APXLK'; l(lOppo1Tia: mo
BHMA
(lll~io
E.
6.2. H (1w"plld; l(lOpp01I[a 1Iapa~EVl (ITO
BHMA 6.3.
<J11~io
E.
LTD E , BP < O.
TWfJrplI(o., to (lll~io E [Vat KaTOl a1Io TTjV Ka~nUAll BP ' ~O.
AOYlKCt, 11 Ulj~l1crTj IOU 1HtOK10U cupro KUt0'1T1O' tl~ 0 8 cupro tm;vouO'l<;
1tl
KPOE<lTPS, OOTjywvms (1 KPOES K<paAaiOlv arr6 TTjV xwpa Kat (1 Ellit~~a

TDU 1<l01;uyiou rrJ..TjpOl~wv .
./ Mta~oA'; toU CA: Ka~ia, Ka80n OEV EX" ~a~ATjSi ClK6~Tj TO Y.
./ Mta~oA'; TaU CF: i ~ i, + RP+LP < if + RP+LP ~ CF, 1-.
BHMA
Ta
6.4.
AUTO~atoS <1mSpOrrol~nKos ~llXClVt(l~OS: BP < O.

./ Yrr6 (lmSp,; 1<l0n~iCl, M 1
~ H KCl~nUATj LM ~mT01IU;TCll "poS TCl Clpl<lTpa, (lT~V LM'.
~ NEa t(loppo"ia <1TD (lllfl(O E,.
./ Y"a flna~AllT'; monflia, VOfJ"'lla 1
~ HIS flnaT01Ti1;!at "pas TCl oC;la, (lTllV IS".
Cir NEa t(loppo1Iia mo <J11~i0 E, .
~';flUTa
6.5 Kat 6.6 atp,;vOVTat OlS a<lKTj(lTj.

IxlilJO 15.9. AU~l1al1 TOU AIE9vo(j~ ETTlTOKfou
To ATToTt )..i:O ~a E~apT6Tal ana TO rUOTI11..10 LuvoM a.VI-IOnKWV laoTIl-.IIwv
ETTlTOI(IO
i, + RP+LP I----.....;~---4~--- BP ' =O
it
r----7<--------'* --..---......
IE
i,+RP+LP
BP=O
IS
Y"
Y,
29
H I-llroO'l -roU
m!
AU~IJCrrl
otevoli~ ffi"toKiou ea EXl "ta tlVT\eTa a710tAE0).1am. C"PEUV~Ot
TWV Aoq>tlAioTPWV KlvliUvou
KQI PEUOT6TlJra~ .
Dapo).1ota EiVat '1 aVaAUa'1 ).1la~ aus~aEOX; TOU aaqJaAlmpou KLVOUVOU, RP, ~ 'ou aaqJa
)~impou pEUaTOT'1Ta<;, LP.
LtO p~).1a 6.1 , '1 aUS'1a'1 trov aaqJaAlmprov npoKaAEl npo<; ta navw ).1EtatOma'1 ''1<;
Ka).1nUA'1<; BP=O. H ).1ElWa~ tou<;, aE ).1HaToma'1npo<; ta KatW.
H UnOAOt7t'1 aVaAUa'1 EiVat onw<; "P0'1you).lEvro<;.
YTtOTiIlIJO'l.
APXtK~ lCloppo"la ato a'1).1Eio
<J"Tl tou vo,.da~O:to~.
catm
Otl
to No Value
E tou
ax~).1tlTO<; I S.I
U1l0ltJ.lUtOl,
a LE aut~v, OEY aVa).1Evmt U"Otl).1~
alAa O:VUj.lVtnt 0111 O"UVtx,lO 11 lcrOtt~la. tOU va

to 1lltOKIO tcroppoJ[[a~ va 1tapa~e{vEl tao ).1 if
1l(1pa~eivt crta8p~ . .6.ll).aB~, aVa~VE'tal
+ RP + LP.
H vf.a toopponia eO. eivat <:ITO crrll.lEio E " .
rX~).10
15.10. M~-Ava).1'v6).1'v~
YTToTr).1~O~ TOU Eyxwpiou N0).1io).10TO,

YljJI1MTE:PO Ela65r]IJo , A~ET6~Af1TO ETTITOKIO
LM '
i,+RP+LP I---------~:_----~~--- BP =O
IS'
y
E.o6 ~~a.
nopaywy~
DapaT'1peimE
on '1 aVaAU"~ Kat '1 VEa taoppo,,[a Eivat "apO).1ot<; ).1E aUtE<; T'1 <; EnEKta
ttK~<; O~).10<ltOV0).1tK~~ nOAmK~<; U"O KaSEmm<; c>taSEpwv lClOtt).1tWV.
0 AOyO<; EiVat 6tt '1

UnOTl).1~~ npOKaAe[ aus~~ 'WV KaSapwv ESaYWymv, Nxt, K(l[ ).lEaw aUt~<; aUs~a'1 t~<;
CJUVOAtKi" 1;~'itoEw<;, AD t, o"ro<; Kat ~ E1tEKtattK~ O~).10"'OV0).1tK~ "OAmK~, G t.
30
To crx~~a 15.10 8mp8paLWVl on ~ avaAucr~ Yla X t, orrOl, KaL yla Ct KaL 7 t , 8;

VaL rrapo~oLU ~ au,~ yLU G t. Eival ~ia aKO~~ tv081S~ lOU on 8ixv yvOlpii;81 Kimoto, va
aVUAUl tva CJVapIO, YVWP~l1tOOC; va avul:Ul 6)..n tn manvel GCVO:PlO.
APXIK~
laoppoma ",0 "'WEio E TOU crx~~aTo, 16.3, orrou E,SHI ~ S,.
'EmOl On ~ ava~vo~v~ taon~ia ~,apaUnaL cr8 E,S,+I [Ny/E] > S, [NY/], orrap cr~
~aiv81 on 0\ ayopE, ava~ouv urro,i~~"'l 'au vo~icr~a,os '~s Utopia.
nEpirrTWO"'l11'1. To v6~lO:lla '[l1S xwpac; U1(Otlllcltal, Kat '1 VEa lOOtlllla rivEtal lO'lIl IllV
aVClIlEVof.lV1l ME to erXWplO 1tltOKIO va ivaI iao 11 to rnttOKlO IOU eupw cruv tn u
crCPclAIOtpa KlVOUVOU Kelt peuotorrrrac;, 11 VEa lO"opponia Sa eivat GtO O'lIllO E" tOU crx~
~alOS 15.10.
v6 ~la~a ,~, xwpa, OV urron~(i1<ll. M8 ,0 8YXWptO 8m,oKto va auSa
no(wmo tTlC; aVUIlEVOIlEvrV; Ul[QTlIl~cre(JJC;, 11 vim tcropporrla Sa lVUl atO
"'l~io E, lOU ax~~alOS 15.11.
nEpinTwIHl
2". To
VEtat Kala to
l:x~~a
15.11. At)~~a~ ~~ Ava~Ev6~EV~~ laon~ia~

XOIJ'lA6TEPO Elo6l5rwo, YlPllAOTEpo ETTlT6KI O
En1l6~10
it:
S
S I - +RP + LP f------~o_---___:;,L_---~ BP + -E'-'---!"'-
i,.+RP+LP i----r---;-----.:~-------
BP=O
,S,+I
I}
IS
mJYKPtcr~
TOlV
am~ixTUlV
15. 10 K<ll 15. 11
8E,~Y8i
lOV
lt8\paa~6
Yla TI<; ApXt<; va
~~v
rrpoarrae~aouv va altOTptljlOUV ~ia urroTI~~"'l lOU vo~ia~alOS T~<; xwpaS OTaV O~~IOUp
neotlv rrpoaooK[8S urron~~a80lS. Xwp[s urroTi~~,,~, TO 8YXWPIO 8mTOKIO auSavnal KaL ~
rrapayOlY~ ~8l(iJv8Tal. M8 urroTi~~,,~, ~ rrapaywy~ auE,aV8Tal.
H urroTi~~"'l, o~wS,
",Vat xwp[S apv~nKES "\JVE"';1ES. Mia ltpo<j>av~S TTola ou
VE1tEta lvat '1 EvtCl<rrt tWV 1tA.'19WPlO"tlKWV ntf;aEOOV t6ao uno Illv 7tA.eupa t'1t; npocrq)Qpac;.
Myw T~S urrOTl~~"8UlS lOU vo~i,,~aTos, 6ao Kat arro ,~v rrMoupa ,~S e;~T~"8WS, Myw T~S
oty
aUS~~lEV~S rrapaywy~s
A.A. A VT~OUA"T<X;
31
.'
TO VnOl!.EIrMA MUNDELL - FLEMING ................................................................................. 1
15.1 EIIArnrH .. .................... .......... ......... ............................................................... ..... ............... 2
15.2 E:=OTEPIKH ANlwpponlA - AYTOMATOL l:TA0EPonoIHTIKOI MHXANIIMOr.. .... ........... 3
15.3 IIOPPOnlA ITHN AroPA l:vNMAArMATOI.. ..... ................................ .......... ..................... 10
15.4 To VnOIlEIrMA MUNDELL - FLEMING ............................... ..... .......... .......... ............. ......... 13
15.5 l:ENAPIA OIKONOMIKHI nOAITIKHI .......... ......... ...... ........................................ ................ 16
15.5l!.!ATAPAXEI Ano THN AroPA l:vNAAAArMATDI ............................................................ 28
TO VnOl!.EIrMA MUNDELL - FLEMING ................................................................................. 1
15.1 EIIArnrH ............... ....................... .... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... ......... ........ ........ .. .......... ............... 2
15.2 E=nTEPIKH ANIWpponlA - AYTOMATOI rTA0EPOnOlHTlKOI MHXANIIMOI.. ............... 3
LX~lJa 15.1. Ayopd LuvaMdYIJOToC; - npompopO KQI Z~Trlaf'1 TOU Eyxwp[ou NOlJialJoToC;
.................
IUCJTIlI..IO METaf3AIlTwv laOTlI..llwV...
.. 4
.. 4
IuanUJo LT09EPWV laOTllJ1wV. . ...
.. 5
~q .
......... . ........ .. . 7
nArlPWIJWv KQI AUTOIJOTO C; LT09EPOTTOltlTlK6C; MIlXav1GIJ0C; ........ 8
nivOKoC; 15.1. lao~OYlo

A6paVOTTOi'lo'l. ....... ..
... .,,' .... 8
Er.paPlJoy~ 15.1. To lIlllJ0alOVOIJIKo Komoc; HIe; Al)pavoTTol~aEWC; ....

..9
15.3IIOPPOnlA ITHN ArOPA l:vNAAAArMATOI.. ..... ...... ................. .. ........ ..... .......
........ 10
KUPIEC; METoj3AIlTEC;...
. 10
EV150YEVElC; KOI E~wVEvd<; METOPi..IlTC;. ..

... 11
laop porria. .. . .
......... . II
~x~~a 15.2. AvaAuaq rq~ E~WTEPIK~, laoppoTTia~

. 11
LX~I-'O 15.3. laop~TTia Olllv Ayopo LuvaM aYIJoroC; !Jiae; M1KP~C; Xw pac; .. ..
.. .. .... . 12
........ 12
Mnol3oAi:<; Hle; laopponiac;. .

15.4 To VnOIlEIrMA MUNDELL - FLEMING .................................................................
.. 13
laoPPoTTfa...
........ . 13
I X ~lJcr 15.4. IcroppoTTLo O'TO YTT6oIYIJO MundeU- Fleming ..

. 13
AAyopl8)JoS" AvoAuC1EWS" IEVOplwv KOI aIOTOpOXWV.

.......... 13
nivm:.oc; 15.2. 6 B~lJo TOU N.yopi8IJou ..

..... 14
AnAouO"TEuO"EIC; KO) nOpOiSOXEC;. ...

....... 14
15.5 l:ENAPIA OIKONOMIKHI nOAITIKHI ................. .......... ..... .. .... ... ........ .. .........
. ..... ... ) 6
ruanwo .b o6EpWV laoTlIJ1wv..... ..

.... ... 16
mVOKOC; 15.3. EVOOYEViC; KOI E~WYEVEfC; MTO~AIlTt C; - IT08EP~ 1000TllJfo. . . .

... .. 16
IXtlIJo 15.5. ETTEKTcrTlK~ tlrUJOOlOVOIJIKtl n OA ITIK~ - ITOep~ IcroTlIJio ........... ...... ..... 17
niVOKOC; 15.4. ETTEKranK~ ..6.IlIJOOIOVOIJIK~ nOAITIK~ - IraSEp~ IOOTIIJio

... ... 1B
IX~IJo 15.6. ETTEKTOTlKtl NOIJIOIJOTlKr'\ nO A ITIK~ - Ira8Epr)looTlIJio ..

.... 20
nIVOKOC; 15.5. EmKTOnK~ NO)JJO"IJOTlKr1 nOArTIKr1 - Ira8EPtl iO'oTllJio ... ..

..... 20
'Ev8To 15.1 . IUlJfpwvfo IJE Hl IuvStlKllla06uvolJfoC; TWV ETTlToKiwv ....

..... 21
'Ev6ETo 15.2. lT06t:pts" laoTlIJiEC; KOI n t:18opXio H1C; OIKOVOIJ1KtlC; nOAITIKr)C;... .

. .... 21
Iuonu.lo MHO~AIlTWV laOTI}.IIWV...

...... 22
nlVOKOC; 15.6. Ev6oYEVEiC; KOI E~WYE V iC; METO~"Tts" - MraI3AIlTtl IOOTllJio ....
.... 22
I Xr1 IJo 15.7. ETTEKraTlK~ tlIlIJOOIOVOIJIKr1 nOAITIK~ - MTo~ArlTr) laoTlIJ1o..

... 23
nrVOKOC; 15.7. ETTEKTOTlKr) tl'l}JOOIOVOIJIK~ nOAITIKr'j - MnoI3A'lTr'j laoTl}Jio .

. .... 24
IXtlIJo 15.8. ETTKTOTlKr) NOIJ10'IJOTlKtl n OAmKr) - METOPArlTtl IcroTlIJio .. .

... ... 25
nIVOKOC; 15.8. ETTEKTOTlKr'] NOIJIO'IJOTlK~ nOAITlKtl - METOI3AIlTr) looTl}Jlo .

. .... 26
niVOKOC; 15.9. IUOTIlIJO IcroTllJlwv KOI ATTOTEAEO'IJOTIKOTIlTO OIKOVOIJIKr1S nOAITIKr)C; . ... 27
'Ev6ETO 15.2. YTTEpOKOVTIO'l H1C; IcroTllJfoS" (Exchange Rate Overshooting) ..

..... . 27
"EV8ETO 15.3. H EMa5a arqv Eupw~w vq ..

............. 28
15.5l!.IATAPAXEI AnD THN ArOPA l:vNAAAArMAToI ...... .......... .......... .. ........... ......... ........... 28
AU~l1oll TOU al8voO I) ETTlTOKfou. ..

.... 29
IXtl\Jo 15.9. A U~l1oll TaU ..6.IE8VQUC; EmTOKiou .. ..

.. .. 29
A(j~1101l TWV AOc.pOAfOTPWV Klvouvou KOI PUOTOTI1T0S"..

. ..... 30
VTToTI~~a~ . ..
.... 30
IXtlIJo 15.10. MIlAvoIJEVO).JEV'l YTTOTflJl1O'Il TOU Evxwpfou NO}Jfo).JOTOC;..

.30
AU~l1oll TIlS AVO)JEVOIJEVI1S" IOOTI)JfoS . .

... 3 1
I x~ ~a 15.11 . AIi~qaq rq~ Ava~Ev6 ~Evq~ laoTl~la, ... .

..31
32
:;
16
To Y1T66EIVIJO Mundell - Fleming
"The international monetary system is the glue thaI binds national economies to
gether. lIS role is 10 lend order and stability (0 foreign exchange markets, 10 en
courage the elimination ofbalance-ofpaymenrs problems, and to provide access to
inrernatiotUl/ credits in (he even! of disruptive shocks. Nations find it difJicult to ef
ficiently exploit lhe gains /rom trade and foreign {ending in the absence oj an ade
quately junctioning infernational mone{GlY mechanism . ...
Any account of the development of the international monetary system is also
necessarily an account of the development ojin/ernotional capital markets."
(Barry Eichengreen, Globalizing Capital- A History of the International
Monetary System, Princeton University Press, 1996. p. 3)
(EA69EPTI A1t6ooO"TI) To OlE9vte; vO ~ta~onK6 cri>O"tTl).lO oJ[Otwi tOY OllVOET1KO

talO lffiV E8VlKWV O IKOVO ~llWV. 0 POAO<; lOU Elvat va J[aptXEl ta~'l Kat crm8EpOl'lm
UlTlV ayopa uuvoUCtY).IOtO<;, va ev80ppuVEI lTl ol6p9wO"'l aVl<TOppomoov lOU taot;u
yiou itATlPW).IUW, Kat va J[api:XEt itpOO"PO<TTI <TE OIEOVl<; 1tI<Tt(D<TI<; m: 1tEpt1tTOO<TCle;
01tO<n:08P01tOtJ1TlKWV ,Olompoxwv. To c8v'l ocv ).I1tOPOl)V va O~101tOl~<TOUV la 0
qlN, a1tO 10 o\c9vte; C)l1tOPIO Kat lOY blC8v~ baVE10")l6 6rav oev umlPxcl tva a1tOlC
AO")lanKO ou;;9vte; vO)lt<T)lanKO cru<TT'l)la....
H ta'tOpia llle; c~cA.i~(;(Q<; TOU ou:8vou.; VO~I<T).IanKOU O1)CfT~).Imo.; Elvm E1tl<T'l';
ta'tOpla 1'11'; ~"i~cw.; TOW OIEftvWV XP'l)lawyopc'Ov.))
H 1<TaycoytKtl1tpOtacr'l tOU (tVCL)"ci:pco P1P"lOU lOU Barry Eichcngrcen, \IOe; EK tCOV
KopuqlalWv 'economic historians' Kat Ko9I1Y'llOU lOU 1tOVC1tIO"T'l).liol) Berkeley, 1tO
PX1 TOV <Jl)VOtIKO 100tO yla to 1tplqO).levO lOU 1top6vTOC; tctcpaAoiou, OAI..Ct KOI
YIO lOY Ti'TAo lOU 1tOPOVTOC; PtP),iou.
ME ~ta wtt<Tft).lGVCnr 01 OIOVtl<; XP'l).lamyop,; O'UxYn - mJlCVa 'mpaKouvouV ra
8~IAta rou OIEeVOU<; VO ~I<T~anKOU 0ll<n:~1-.ta1O';. H cru).l).letOX~ crt aUTO VOl ).lEV
a1tocptpt nolla OtptAI1 aill, rauToXjX>va, EVX1 cropapouc; Klv8uvou.;. OubV
KaAOv aJl-ty4; KaKOU)), KalmiA1 !
16.1 Elaaywyl']
~tO napov KfjJUAatO auv;(Jt;etat ~ 1tpoanaSeta ml~OATJ, .aSew, ato Xao, 'wv xp~flalO
OlKOVO~HKOOV ESEA1SEWV, Kat OT) o.vacpoplKa. J.l 9tJ.1010 10. onoio. CtnlOVtat tooV ol9vwv cru
val.N:tywv flia, xwpa,. 0tfIalO 10 o1toia, 61tw, KO,' movaA~'I'~ txel aV<l<pep8i, 1tpl~aA
AOvtClI ).1 tT1V aupa 'TOU J.luCftTJpiou. Mnopouv, 01100<;, va unol1U901tOlTJ90uv Kat, EV 1tpO
KelfltvT] 1tepu"wal, va aVaAuSOUV fie to u1to8etYf1a Mundell - Fleming.
~uvexit;ovm,.~ crut;TJ1~<JT] .ou 1tpo~youfltvou KefjJaAaiou , to 1tapov KefjJaAalO S~yd
1tWS Ol auvaUawallKoi 1tPLOPlcrfloi fl1t0poUV va owaouy tva fllKPO 1tepl8wpto an, Ap
xtr; yto. IT)V OVtlJ.llwmcrT) 100V olatapaxwv TJ 1T)V nin:uST) Ko:nou:ilv OlOXOOV 1TJr; OlKOV0J.ll
K~, 1tOAtnK~" Ev aVllStael fl .~v 1t ep i1tlwcr~ .~S 1IATJPOU, eAeu8epia, K1VTJcrewS mv OlE
9vwv nEVOUtlKWV K<pUAUiwv, TJ VO~tlcr~WtlKTJ nOAltlKTJ uno cr1a9pEr; tcrOtlJ.lir; Kat TJ OTJ
flOcrlovofllK~ uno fleW~A~,t, fI1topei va dV(ll a1IOteAWflallKt,. 'OXl, 6flW" mi flaKpOv.
El!v Ol ev A&yW 1tOAtnKt, oev eivat crufl~a1t, fie ,~v S(jnptK~ tcropp01tia, apya TJ YPTJYo
pa Ol APXt, Sa avaYK<lcrtOuv va emlp,'I'0uV an, OlKOVOfIlK~ ouvaflel, va eSllAi'l'ouv
"A yyeAor; A. AV.(OUMcWr;
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vanay~a!lKO[ ltEPlOPlcrllO[ O~1l10UPYOUv Kocrro<; Yla rou<; EnEvOurt<;. MMlOra, ar~v E
cpaplloy~ 14.7 " ~uvanaYllanKoi nEpLopLcr~oi Kat Kocrw<; ~uvaUaymv" OE[XS~KE Ort 01
ltEP10PLOIlOi an<; ELOpOt<; EltEVOUrlKWv KEcpaAaiwv opi!;ouv tva EUpO<; Yla ra Eyxwpla Em
tOKIO. vroc; tOU orroim.l 8"\1 un:a.pxouv tcrpot <;.
~UYKEKpllltva, Ea.V w Koaro<; rwv ltEPlOPlOllmV r~<; Utopia Elvm 1;, rOrE Yla EYXWpla
Elt"OKla iNV EV1:0<; TII<; !;WV11<;
if + RP + LP"5 i NV S if + RP+ LP+C;

OEV Sa UltLlPXOUV ElcrpoE<;.
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ElVat U~fTfA6tpo tOU 1tllOKlOU tOu
cupoo c:ruv ta
aa<paALcrrpa KIVOUVOU Kal pEuaror~ra<;, ana ~ OlWpOpa OEV Eival roao IlEY aA~ marE va
KUAtnVtl to K6crroc; auvaUUYWV ( , O'lJ..1UvtlKO ).tEpOe; tOU QilOIOU rrpoepx'wt aitO roue; ou
vaUaYllartKOU<; llEpLOPlOIlOU<;. <l>UOlKa, Myw rou aXEnKa U\jI~AOU Eyxwpiou E1llWKiou
OEV Sa UllapXOUV OUrE EKpOE<; KEcpaAaiwv an6 rTJv Utopia.
Ka.t ' avaAoYLn, cav to K6crtoC; tWV m:ptOpw)lWV one; EKpOE<; (VClt (, Yla YXOOPIU
mroKla EVro<; rTj<; !;mVTj<;
OEV Sa UltapXOUV EKpOt<; alto rTJv Utopia.

NUl J..1v to 11UOKtO -rou NoValue elvat XUJ..1T\AOtEPO tou En:ttOK10U tOU upw cruv to.
aa<pa.ALOrpa KIVOUVOU Kill pE1larorTjra<;, aUa TJ Ola<popa OEV Elvm roao IlEYaATj marE va
KaAli\jlEl ro Koaw<; auVaAAaymv (. <l>UOlKa, \6yw rou aXETlKa xallTJAOU EYxwpiou E1llTOKi
OU OEV Sa unapXOUV OUrE ELOpOt<; KE<paAaiwv arTJv Utopia.
!:uvouCtl;ovruc; to. avunEp(J), Otav umIPx.0uv 1tEPIOpt0J..10( Kat otlC; LOpot<; Kat one;
EKpot<;, Sa Uno.pXEl t va EUpO<; En"OKlwv rou NoVa1ue ym w onoio OEV Sa umlPXouv pot<;
EltEVOtrrlKmV KE<paAaiwv ano Kat npo<; rTj Xmpa. TIapouaUl!;Eral arTjv ESicrwaTJ (16. 1).
( 16. 1)
Auro ro EUpO<; naptXEl aurovollia crrTjv o.aKTJcrTJ rTl<; OlKOVOIlLK~<; nOAtnKTJ<;. 01 Apxt<;
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Ataouv lcrpote; ~ Kpote; Kcpa'Aa[wv OL ono(ce; 8a un:aKan:1av 1rlv ano1Aea~a1lK61111a
r1]<; OlKOVOlllK~<; ltOAmK~<;. ME ava<popo. ora crEVapla '1]<; EVOrTjra<; 15.5, Tj vOlllcrlla,,~
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ClVCl<pOplKa fle taus aUVClUClYflClnKOUS lIepLOplafloDS: KCll t~v tumK~ , t~S eSlawaeWS
(16. I) , Kal tl~ bUG aKpai~ 1[Pl1ItcOcrl~ 6nou bEY unaPXGuv 1[ E plO pla~oi ~ Onou Elvm to
ao (lucrtllPO{ roUte; 8EY unapxouv Ka86 AOU pots lbWHlKWV1tevOU1'tKWV KIpU).OlroV.
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tat flE fleyaAe<; HfltS trov ( Kat i;. Amt<; aVnOtOlXOUV OE fleyaAO lipo<; t~<; 1tpOaVCl<pEp
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tou OVOflClOtlKOD 1IltoKiou, O~ AClO~ , TO fl~Otv (flAtnete to tvSeto 5.10 " To KCltwtClto
'OplO tOU OVO!lacrtlKou EmtOKiou" ).
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CAE + CF E
O.
nEpantpro, U1tOti6etClt on 11 OtCltClpax~ EiVCll tEtolOU fleytSOU<; WOte OtO p~fla 6.2 tOU
aAyopi8flou tOU 1tiVClKa 15 .2 "6 B~fla toU AAYOPi8flou", to vt o 1IltOKlO VCllI(lpafltvl
OtCl opm t11 <; swv~<;. !1<; (l1tOtAC!flCl, 881 Sa ulIapxouv pot<; 1IVOUnKWv KEq>ClAClirov KCll
SCllIapawivEl CF ~ O.
EnEKTATIKH NOMlrMATI KH nOAITIKH Yno I:TA0EPEE IWTlMIEL APXlK~
flEio E, OlIWS OtO
t.
BHMA
6.1. M
BHMA
6.2. Nta
O X~flCl
moppolIiCl: at O a~
15.6.
f eWflHptK6., ~ LM ~lEtCltOlIiSEtClt lIpOS tClOESla, at~v LM.

EuwrEplK~
lOOPPOlIiCl OtO
O~flEio E.
BHMA 6.3.
LTO E', BP < O.

AOYII"', ~El(j)vTat TO LaOI;UylO TpExouawv auvaUaywv, A&yW T% au~~aEWS
TtV; 1Iapo.ycoy~~ Kat tT]~ cruv autT) aU~11mxo.; tCLlV loaywyci:lv, Kat uno lO"OO"KAl
a~tvo ylVTlll l,.Al~~IlTlKO: CAE' < O.
L1]IlIlVTlK~ Olillpopa a 0X01] 11 TO OVaplO TOU OXTtIiIlTOS 15.6: ElllO~ TO
EllIlOKlO OTO o1]l-'io E ' Eivat I-'EOIl ow opm T1]S I;wv1]S TTlS i~lOWOEO'S (16.1),
bEV npoKaAitUL EKpOrt
E1tEVOUtLKWV
KEq>aAuiwv .
LuvO\l'il;oVTIl"
./ METIlPOAit TOU CA:
YE, > YE =:> 1ME' > 1ME=:> CAE' < CAE: CA-i
./ METIlPOAit TOU CF: ElllOit TO EllItOKlO OTO o1]llio E' elV(ll IlEOa aT(I
opla T1], I;wV1]" OEV llPOKIlAEiwl EKPOit EllEVOUnKWv KEq>aAuiwv,
i
+RP+LP - i; < iE' < i+RP+LP+(=:>
CF E, = CFE = 0
./ METIlPOA'i TOU BP:
8P E , = CA, ,+ Ch ' < CAE + CF = BP E = 0 =:> BPE, < 0,

BHMA 6 .4.
AUToliaTo, OTlleEpOllOl1]TlKO, Il1]XIlVlO~O,:
BP<O =:> LVVaMa.Yflawi A7foBt flara .j.

H Olllq>OP6., OIlWS, liE TO OEVaplO TOU Ornl-'aTO, 15,6 EivIll on 0 amoliaTo, OT(lepOllOl1]
TlKO, Il1]XavLOIlO, 1l1l0pi V(I ll1]v AWOUPYitOEl allEOIl, EnLTptllOVTru; OTlI VOlilollllnKit 1l0
A.l'[lK~ va EivUl a1lot4(jllatU(~. C(f'[(j) KUl YlU 1l11(PO XPOVIKO oto.crnnlO..
LUYKKPl~tvll, ym 600 'b"ioT1]~a 1] KEVTPIKit TpallEl;1l KIlAUllW TO EJ.Allllla TOU 100
I;uylou llA1]PWIlWV liE aUV(lAAIlY~llnKa a1l0e tllllW Kill, 1IIlpaAl.1]AIl, KaVEl IlOPIlVOllOi1]01],
11 OlKOVOlllU 1tUpa)ltvEl 010 allJ-llO E', 010 onOLO 11 vO~llcrllatlKti n:OAltlKyt EiVal U11:0tA
allllnKit. Xwpi, ouvaUaY~IlTlK01j, lIEPlOPIOIlOU" 01lWS OTO OEVapIO TOU oxitliaTO, 15.6,
TIl OUVIlUIlWanKa 1l1l0eElillTil ea ivilt 1I0AU Aiya ym va KIlAU'I'0UV TO EJ.Alll~la TOU 100
I;uyiou llA1]PWIlWV Kat TlIV cruv aUTW llEiWaT] T1], VOIiLOIiUTtKit, KUKAOq>Opia"
H KVTPIK!t TpallEI;Il, CrE aVTieW1]liE TO ovaplO TOU oXitl-'llTOS 15,6, ~llopi Vil KaVE l
abpllvolloi1]aT]: XwpiS T~ KpOtS EllEVbunKwv KEq>aAlliwv, 1] ami'Am cruvIlAAlly~UTtK,"V
IlllOeE~aT WV KaeE llpiooo ElVlll cruYKPmKa I-'lKpit: i01] 11 TO EUlIl~U TOU laol;uylou TP
xouawv OUVUAAIlYWV, H ~lKPTt IlUTit KPO~ ~llopEl Vil KIlAuq>ei ylll KallOlO ;(pOV1KO bla
OU11i1l a1l6 TIl umipxovTIl cruvaAAIlYllllTtKa (lllOeIlIlTil T1], XffiP(l,.
MllOp~ 1lio1]" V(I KIlAuq>ei 11 lOpOt<; Kq>aAlliwv (11(0 O(lVlOIiO TWV Apxwv, O
~tvo VOlilOIlIl, 0 1 ApXE, 1l1lOPOUV va oavELOTouV O Upw liE "'TOKIO ;f + RP + LP, L'>
OOIlEVOU on Clva~TrrOUV EUpW, oev UnOtpE1tovrut 0.11:6 to XUllllAOtEPO E7I:LtOKLO oavEtallOU
aE EYXWPIO v61lWIlIl: LTo 01]IlEiO E' TO yxwplO 1ILTOKIO (Vill Xall1]l.6TPO TOU
i,+RP+LP,
H 1l0pa:volloi1]01] VOIiOT EMl(IKa KanOla OTlwit ell OTllIlIlTitOl olon fiill XWPIl bEV
Illlopi Vil EXl Ell' MElPOV AAlIlIlIlTil 010 100l;uYIO TPEXOUOWV cruVaAAayWv. TOTE, 1]
1lu,,011 1WV cruvaAAaYf!(lTlKWV (lllOeElla1WV e(l Ob1]YitOl OE IlEiW01] 11], VO~O:~ClTlKit,
KUKAoq>opiCl" b1]Aa8it ell apxiOl va AELTOupyi 0 ClmOlillTOS CHlle pOllOl1]TlKOS ft1]XIlVl
OliOS 0 01l010, ell ~aMi'l'l11]V ~W lP1K!t IlVIGOppOllia, r(Jl~ETplKa , 1] LM ea IlE1(I1Om
oli npos 1(IIlP101pa Kat 1]lA1K~ lOOPPOllill ell ivat 010 apX1K6 01]~io E.
EnEKTATIKH .o.HMOrlONOMIKH nOAITIKH Yno METABAHTEr IWTIMIEL
APX1K!t LOoppOlli(l:
OTO 01]IlEio E, OllWS 010 GX~Il(l 15.7.

BHMA 6.1.
G t: 1]
BHMA 6.2. Nau
IS
~E1(ITOlliI;ETlll llPOS
C'(Jwtc:prxr, lO"OPP01rl.U OTO
'A yye),oc, A , A VT~OUA(hoc,
1(1
bE~lIi, OT1]V IS',
OTI)lElO
E'.
BHMA
6.3. l:TO E', BP<O.

AOYIKa, ~WjlVETat TO laO/;uylO TpEXOUaWV auvaUaywv, AOYW HI<; aUc;~aEW<;
TTj<; napaywYTJ<; Kat HI<; auv amTJ aUC;TJaEW<; TWV ElOaywywv, Kal yiVETat EA
Al~~aTlKo : CAE' < O.
l:~~avTl~ bla'l'Opa OE 0XEaTj ~E TO OEVaplO TOU oXTJ~aTO<; 15.7: EnEIOi] TO
EntTOKlO OTO a~ ~io E' Eival ~E(J(l OTn opla TTj<; t;wV1l <;, oev npoKaAEiTnI EIOpoi]
1tEVOUtlKclW KscpaAa(cov.
l:uvmvi/;OVTa<;,
./ METapoAti TOU CA:
YE , > YE => 1MB , > IME => CAE' < CAE: CA-!.
./ M ETnPOATJ TOU CF: EnEI01'J TO EmTOKIO OTO a~~io E' EiVat ~Eoa aTa
opla T~<; /;WVTj<;, OEV npOKaAEiTat EKpOi] EnevbuTlKWV KE'I'aAaiwv.
iE+RP+LP - I; < iE' < i+RP+LP+(=>

CFE ~ CFE~ 0
./ MEWPOATJ TOU BP:
BP,
BHMA 6.4 . AUTo~aTO<;
CAE'+ CFE , < CAE + CFE ~ BP E ~ O.
aTaaEpOnOlTjTlKo<; ~~ xav lo~o<;:
BP<O =:>
unoTi~~oTj
TOU NoValue
TEA1KO anoTEAEo~a, nEpatTEpW auC;~o~ T~ <; napaywy1'J<; (~ETnT01[[O~ T~<;

npo<; Tn bEC;1(l).
IS
'Onw<; Kat npo~you~VW<;, ~ Ola'l'Opa ~E TO aevaplo TOU oXTJ~aTO<; 15 .7 Eiv", on 0 aUTo

~aTO<; OTnaEpOnOlTjnKO<; ~~xavla~o<; ~1!opEi va ~Tjv AELTOuPYTJaEl a~EOa. l:UYKEKpl~va,
ylO 000 01l1aTTj~a Tj KEVTPIKTJ TpanE/;a KaMmEl TO EUEl~~a TOU 100t;UytOU nA~pw~wv ~E
ouvanay~anKa anOae~aTa Kat, napaU~Aa, KaVE! aOpavo1!oiTjOTj, ~ 01Kovo~la napa~E
va 0"1"0
OTI~ElO
E'
EirE ~E aOpavonoi~oTj, EiTE xwpi<;, ~ b~~OOlOVO~IK1'J 1!OAlTl~ Eivat a1!OTEAO~aTlK~ .

To aVTlaETo TOU aEVaplou TOU "XTJ~aTo<; \5 .7 .
.6IATAPAXEI Ana THN ArOPA IVNA/\A.ArMATOL 'Eateo on )leU:OV'Wt to ou~ ever; 1UtO K10 uno
if OE it", H /;WVTj TOU C'fxwpiou E1[[TOKiou Yla T~V onoia Eivat CF ~ 0 ~ EWT01!i/;E'[at npo<;
to Ko.tW.
Yno TTjV npounOaEOIl on Tj OlaTapaXTJ bEV Eivat Toao ~EyaA~ WOTE TO EYXWPIO Em
TOKIO va ppEaEi Eno<; TTj<; /;wv~<;, Tj 100ppOnta OEV aa aUaC;E\' I1apouaui/;ETaL aTO ax1'J~a
16.2.
IXrl~a 16.2. MEfwur] TOU 6.IE9vou<;
ETTITOKiou ~[Iuva,v.,ay~aTIKou<; nEpiOpIUlJOlH;
ArrocpEuYETOI 11 n).,fIlJI-IUPOlf .o.1.9vw v ETTEVOUTlKWV KqmAaiwv
ETTlTOI(IO
LM
'E +RP+LP+,: ._-_ .......... ......~ ............. )
NEa
~wv'l yxwpiwv
Via TO
orroia [IVai CF =
ETTITQKIWV
y
EI06&wQ,
napaywy~
1:E oAa !a CCVUHtpOl aEVaPla, Ot auvaUawanKO( rrEptOptaflO( rrnptrrouv one; Apxte; fl(
ae; xwpae; va avaKrT]aoov Hlv arrO,"AEaflanK<n~!a t~t; OtKOVOfllKilt; rrOAmKT]t;, tatOl Kat
ppaxurrpoSmfla. Ilaptxouv, TOtOUTOtpOrrOle;, rrEp,SWpta ant; ApXtt; va avn~EtOlrriaoov nt;
OrrOtEt; otatapaxte; au~pa(vouv T] va aoKi]aouv arrO!EAEa~anKT] OlKovO~tKT] rroAmKi].
Ot aOVaAAaYflattKo( rrEptOpta~o(, OflOlt;, OEV dvat rraVaKEla. Kat' ap;o;v, EaV ~ ota
tapaXTJ E(vat rroAti fly6.J..~ TJ o~~tOupy~Sotiv arrOataSEpOrrOt~ttKtt; rrpoaooK[Ee;, ~ xwpa
OEV Sa arro'PtiYEl nt; rrtlltWaEtt; t~t;. 1:tO aEVUptO tOU aXTJ~a!Ot; 16.2, EaV 0~fltOOpY'l80tiv
rrpoaooK(Ee; aVanflTJaEOle; TOU vOfl(a~atOe; t~t; xwpae;, orron 0 opoe; (,S" J - S,)IS, Eivat
apvrrnK6~, iVUl1H8av6v va rrpOIclnl
1:E autTJ t'lv rrEpimOla~ , Sa urrapsouv Elapott; "'EVounKwv KE'PaAaiOlv, TO NoValue Sa

avan~~SEi Kal ~ arrOtEAEaflanKOt'lta t~t; o~~oalOVO~tK"e; rroJ..mKi]c; Sa ~tOlSEi.
E"'rrAtov, 'l arrOtEAEaflanKOt'lta tOlv rrEplOptaflWv otappWVEtal flE tTlv rrapooo tOU
xpovou, mSwt; Ot txov'"e; !O tdv'ltpO OtKOVO~tKO( rrap6.YOvtEt; Sa ~piaKouv tporrout; va
tOOt; arro'PWyoov. Kat ac auto Sa TOOe; pO'lSTJaEl TO xp~flatOOtKOVO~tKO m\at'l~a ~ t~
o~fltOUpyia KataJ..J..~J..OlV rrpolOvtOlV.
rlU va OtU1T1P1l8i 11 U1tOteAO"/lUnKOtT\ta, np7rEl Ol 1ttPLOPIO")loi va ytVQVtUl 1tpOO
OUtlKD. uUOtllPon:pOl, J.t CH}V1t ta va au~a.vOvtal Ol crtptp).,6:m1C; ne; 01tOl<; rrpoKuAoUV.
AnD 1<0:1[010 OTHU:(O KUlITEpa, to otrrwc; a1)sav6~evo K6010<; tWV 1tptOPlO~J.(OV So. slIepa
a" TO orrOtO o<pEA6t; tOue;. Kat Sa rrptrrEt va Katapy~Sotiv . fta rrptaaot8pt; AErrtO~tpEt
Et;, pili"E t~V EVOt~ta 17.3 "IlEpi tOlV !:ovaAAaYflanK wv I1EptOplaflwv".
IlEpi TWV 1:uva,v"aYllaTIKwv Auo9EIlOTWV.
H avaJ..ua~ t'lt; EmopaaEOle; tOlV auvaUawanKwv rrEplOpta~Wv avaoEtKVtit ~ia arro Ht;
rrAtov o~flaVttKtt; J..moupyiEt; tOlV OUVaAAay~anKwv arr08EflatOlV: EmtptJrouv OE ~ia
xoopa va acrKi}ol aut6vo,u1l OlKOVO)..ltKyt 7tOAltlKTt. npocrtun:uovrac; Illv 8Yxwpta OlKOVO
~ia Kat 11t; EUWptt; xp~~atayop t; arro w EUEi~~a!a T] rrJ..EOVaO~aw TOU toot;oyioo
.. itA.T\PWI.t<tlV - EirE auto. rrpoEPXOvtat 0.1[0 to looSlryw rpEXoucrwv (Jl)VUl..l..ayclw tirE uno to
100t;tiylO xp~~aTOOtKoVO~tKWV ouvaUaywv.
Eon<it;ovrat; t~v out;"t~O~ crE 8l..AEi~~ara TOU 100t;uyioo rrJ..'lPOlflWv, 1U aovaUay
!lanKa anoet~o.tu I..tltOupyouv onw~ Ot arrOtu)J.LeUaEl~ ev6~ V01KOKUPtOU ~ TO. ptUaTa
8t
aStcrl~a ~ias
EmXEtPT]OEOlt;: Ilaptxouv O!~ xwpa KarrOtO rrplSWpto xpovou va aVttfltOl

iliott ta ellii)J.)J.aTa, xwpit; va xptlUOl"tl VU KUtmpUyet, tOUA.o.XlOTOV a!ltaa, OE CmatUAtt
Ki] 0IKOVO~IKTJ rroAtttKT], rrtlPEVtpy8tEt; T~t; orroiat; Sa TJrav ~ Empp6.ouvo~ t~t; OtKovo~iat;
-~E mSavt'j 6<pO~-KaI a6~~0'l T'lt; aVEpyiat;.
Eivat ~ia rroAU o~~avnKTJ AEttOopyia, Kat o~ orav 1U EAAEi~~a!a Eivat rrtlpOOtKtl T]
rrpomJ..otiv1U1 arro rrapayoVTEe; TOut; o][oiout; OEV EJ..yxOOV 01 ApXtt; t'lt; xwpat;
Ta rrpOt8tVO~EVa flTpa yta ta pano1U arroS~ata ~iat; xwpac; avtCCVaKAotiv aut"
Tll AEttOupyia. Ev O'Uvto)J.ia, )J.t tcr-riaall aTO lO"OsuytO TpExouawv c:ruVUAAaywv, Ta 0.1[08
~ata
ouvlCH6.ral va KaJ..tirrtOov tiS 8taayOlyt;
~iae;
xwpat; yta Tpoit; - TtooEptt; flT]VEt;.
Me eatlUall ato tOOSUy lO xp'l)J.atOOlKOVO!llKWV cruvaUaywv, to. urroet~ata aUV1
Otatat va KaJ..timoov ns orrOXPEW08tt; rrpoe; ~tvOUt; 01 orroiEt; J..l;YOOV OtOUt; ErrO)IE,,\,ut;

owoEKa flTJV8e;. eU~~SdTE on orav J.."y8t tva O~OAOYO, arrootiptat ~ia KataSO~ t'j pru
OTOrrOtotiVtat mWplt; ~EtOXtc; arro stvOOt; rrEVoUttc; rrpOKaAEirat EKpOT] KE<paAaiOlv: CF
J-.
1I.YYEAO<; A.
Avt~OUA"W<;
HAaS, flE wTlaa~ m:~v xp~flaTOOlKovOfllKiJ (HaOEp6t~Ta, auvLCmlTat ta a1CoOEflaTa

va KaAUITTOUV TO flEPOS T~S VOfllOflaTlKijS KUKAo<popla<; TO OITOlO lVaL UlU"lTO O <pvy!']
K<paAalwv ana T~ xoopa. I
n tpav T~S ALTouPYlas tOu<; W<; anOtaflWOEl<; flla<; xoopas OE stvo v6fllOflU, ta au
VaAWYflaTlKo. anoOEflara EntTEAoUV ITEPlOOOtEp<; Mmoupyi<;. EmypaflflaTLKo.,'
I. EITlTptnouv T~V naptflPao~ OT~V ayopa ouvaUaYflaTos Yla va unEpaOntOTei Kcmola
10"Otqlta - aT6xo~ ~ vu 7tEPWPIOtEt TO upo~ TWV cruvo.Uuy~anKciJv Ola1Cl)~avcrwv ~
Kat va avnarpac.pi KC17[OlO. OTU..ltouPyOlJ)lEVll to.011 tax(a~ u7[oTL)litaw~ tOU vO!llOlla

TOS. BHnETE 0XETtKa TO tvOETO 14.9 "napEflPa~ ot~v Ayopa LuvaUaYflaTos". Au
Tij ~ AElToupYla EivaL nOAti O~flaVTtK!'] Yla XooPES Ol 01l01S aKoAouOotiv nOAlTlK!'] ota
Opa<; IOOTlflia<; ij managed floating.
2. ntTptnOUV OT~V KEVTPIKij Tpansa va napo.OXEl pruoToT~ra OTt<; TpanESE<; TIS xoopa<;
o 1CPlOOO KpioE"'S EflmoTocrtiv~S Yla to IpunSIKo ",;oI~fla t~S xoopa<;. EVOElKTlKa,
pHnETE I~ ausijI~~ (H~V EV6r~ra 13.5 "LUOTT]flara LuvaAwYflaTlKooV rOOTlfllooV LtivTOfl~ nEplypa<pij" Yla T~V aouvaflia flias KEVTPIKijS tpants~<; flE currency board
va AEnoupyijoEl WS oaVEtOTij<; TEArurala<; KaTa<puy!']<;.
3.
aUSavouv
I~V EflmOtOotiv~
TWV ayopoov on flla xoopa Oa E[val OE
Oto~
va
EKnA~Poo
Oct tU; urroxpwQ"w; TTl" O ~tvo VO)llO)lU. TOlourorp orrw", )llWVQDV Tn acr<paAlcrrpa
KlVOtiVOU Kat
pruoT6I~taS
Kal 10 KOOTO<; ESWTEpIKm; oavlofl0ti T1]<; xoopas. AnOIpE
novv, m(Ol)s, til OTUHOUpYlU anocrtuOEp01IOl'lTlKWV npOO:OOKIWV Ol 01tot~ 9u J.11tO
potiouv va 001]yT]OOUV O cruvaAWYflUTlKij T] Ipm'SIKT] Kpio1] (PiliETE 0XETlKo. I1]V

EVOT1]Ta 17.4 "LuvUAWYflaTlKt<; KpioEU;").
Ol EV ).Oy", unoxpEooOEl<; 0XETiSOVTaI Kat flE TO 100StiYIO TPEXOUOooV auvaUayoov
Kal fl TO IOOStiy1O xp~fl.aTOOlKOVOflIKoov ouvaUayoov. Lt~ OUTEP~ nEp&[1WO~, flno
pEl va llpotpxOV1ClI ana oavloflO t~<; KUPEpvl']oEW<; ij O~flooiwv opyav1Ofloov I'] ana
oavloflo IOlWTlKooV EmXElpl']oeWV Kal tpanESoov. EnElol'] o tva allEAruOEPWfltvo 01
KOVOfllKa crtiOt~fla 01 ApXtS OEV EAtyxouv TOV OE stvo vaflloflU oav"oflO tWV 101WTl
KWV etalpelWV Kat rpu1tSWV, ta (JUVUAAUY)lUtlKU uno9tjlurCt anOtEAOUV tp6nov lWa
flOP<p!'] ErruT]OW<; ym tOUS o1OviS ITeVoUttS. X<ip1] O aUtij, 01 IOIWTlKtS tatpEi<;
Kat Tpans<; flnopotiv vu oavEisOvtat fl XUfl1]).OTEPO mnOKIO.
navtroc;, 1lEIOyt tU cruVUAA.o:YJ.1UtlKtl unoet!1uta XOUV OrUJ.O(HOVO!1lKO KOcrT.O<;
(pilit t~V <pUPfloyij 15.1 "To 6~flOOIOVOfllKO KOOto<; ITl<; AopavonOIT]owS"), ta
U\jf~A6. anoOtflata flnopEi va oo~yijoouv O alIOO1ClOponOl~ttKes npooooKiES. Nat
flEV ta U\jf~AoIpa an09tflata naptxouv flyMtilp~ ao<ptiAta, anti to KOOtoS tOuS
~lWVl Tllv E!1mcrrocruvll TWV uyopwv Y10. Tllv OlKOV0!11Kyt nOAttlK~.
YnaPXEl Kcl1tolO OPlO nclvw uno to onolo 11 crucrcrwpsucr11 a1toe!1UTWV KaeicrTaTUl
aVIl1wpaywYlKij. M aUa AOYlu, unapx" Ko.nOla XpUOT] tOflij. Ta avwTepw ava<pp
Ovta ptAtlota anoOtflata anoIAotiv Ktlfl!']o"S aut!']s 11]<; tiYVWcrt1]S xpuo!'] <; tOfl!']S
EVOlKtlKO T~S ouoKoAlas IWV xp~ flatOOlKOVOfllKooV uvuAtiowv, autij 1] XpUcrT]
tOflT] SapIo.Iat, avtiflou O o.AW, Kat ano tU; OUVOT]KS 0I1] 010Vij OlKOVOflia Kat
xp1]flaIayopt<;. Aut<;, 0Xl flO VO OEV AEyXOvtat ana ttS ApXts flias xoopas, MAa, 1Il
lIAtov, flETuptiUOVtal ouvXooS. rIa napo.OElYfla, O nplooouS flEro.A~S PUOt011]1ClS
an; Otf)vEl<; xp11!1aTayop t~, onw<; 6tav to. EntTOKla TOU 80AUpiOlJ Kat TOU tupW EiVUl
xafl1]Acl, ~ uKOA~ npoopao~ O OaVlO~a Kat 01 "opots 810VooV nEV8utlKoov "<pa
Aaiwv !1lWVOUV t11V aVUYKll Yla cruvaAA.ay~atlKU ano9!1ara. To avti9sTO cr&',nplo
oou<; U\jf~Aoov 1IltOKlWV Kat flIKpT] <; puot6t~tas.
....,
BA1U:.n:. OXE'tH(O "Reserve Accumulation: O~jective or By-Product?", by 1. Onno de Beaufort

Wijnholds and Lars Sondergaard, ECB Occasional Paper No. 73, Umt~PPIO, 2007.
2 rHl 1tplO'O'6tcp~ )...&1ttO~tPI~, plinT "The Accumulation of Foreign Reserves", ECB Occa
sional Paper No. 43, by an International Relations Committee Task Foree, <l>cppoulipto~ 2006, Kat
I
"FX Reserve Management: Elements of a Framework", by Claudio Borio, .Tannecke Ebbesen,

Gabriele Galali and Alexandra Heath, BIS Paper No. 38, MaptLo, 2008.
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TpiTov, OVOISIKVUEI 6T1, EVW 01 AETTTo~tpEIEe; oMa~ouv, TO YEVIKO OUOTOTIKa TWV ouvoMay~a
TIKWV Kp[OEWV ivOi TO [ISla: TTpooI501<:iEe; U TTOTl~~OEWe; KQI OIKOVO~IKte; QVIOOppOnlEe; 01 oTToiEe;, EVrO
TE, aAAIlAO-EVlOXUOVTOI.
MTTOPEi K08 KpfOIl va <parVETOI ~XWPIOT~ , KOI, we; EK TOUTOU , l5uoKoAO va TTPO~Atp8f, oMd Il
TTpoy~aTlKOTIlTO EivOi ISIO<POpe::TlK~ . .6.0VE I~O~E VOI ~io tKtp pooll OTTO TOV TiTAO Evae; op8pou TO OTToio
aXOAIO~ETOI aTO tvaETO 17.2, 'l TTopo8corr TWV TTEplOTonKWV TO oTToia TTpOrrYOUVTQI TWV ouvalJ..oy
~OTIKWV KpfoEWV ~OIO~E I ~ TO XPOVlK6 EVOe; rrpoovoYYA8tVToe; 80VOTOU.
ITrr aU~r)TrrOrr KOTWTPW, TO ISIOCPOPETIKO xapoKTrrplonKO TWV KpioEWV OVTIOTOIXOUV OTO MaKpool
KOVOJjIKO Yrr6{3afJpo , EVW TO KOIVO orr~ cfo OTIl LWVapIKf} TfK Kplaw~. YTTa TOV TfTAO - EPWTllOIl na
rf TOV Imrip{3plo ovaAUTOI YIOTi 01 TTpoolSoKi.e; YIO UTTOTi~rra'l Tile; Aipoe; EVT091lKOV EKEivl'l TIlV TTE
piol5o KOI tYIVOV OUTO- EmpEpOIoU~EVEt;.
MUKPOOIKOVOPIKO
YTTof3a9po
./ METa TrlV ETTOvtVWOI1 Tile; rEp~aviot;, TO 1989, 11 .6.UTlK~ rEp~avio OPXIOE va ISOTTOVO TEPOOTIO
TTOOO Yla TIlV ovo1Ko1S6~1l01l TOU ovaTOAIKou T ~~~OTOe; Tile; xwpoe;. Mfa rropEvtpYIO ~TOV rr avo
1S0e; TOU TTA Il9wpIO~OU .
./ npOKEI~tvou va AtY~EI TIe; TTAtl6wpIOTlKe; TTIOEIe; OTT6 TIlV TTAEUpO Ttle; 1;IlT~OEWe;, 11 KEVTPIK~
TpaTTE: ~O Tile; Xwpoe;, I"] Bundesbank, aU~tlOE TO TTlTOKIO Ttle;. To OU~I"]~i:VO (:TTlTOKIO ouvt~oAOV ,
ETTio'lt;, OT'lV TTpooiAKUOtl ~t vwv KEtpOAOiwv YIO XPllIJOTOlSoTIlOr] TOU TTPOKUI.pOVTOt; EMEf~~OTOt;
TO U loo~u yfou TPEXOUOWV ouvoMaywv.
./ To vo~io~aTO TWV xwpwv - IJEAWV TOU EUPWTTO"lKou NOlJla~OTIKoU IUQT~lJOTOe; , OVOIJEOO TOUe;
r] BpTOVlKr) Afpo KOI TO rEp~OV IKO 1.I0PKO, IS loTTpaY~OTEUOVTOV OE ~io OlEVr'] ~WVr] . KOTO rrpo
oiYYlorr, ylO n e; ovaYKEt; Tile; TTOPOOO'lt; OU~IlT~OEWt;, Eixov mo9pa IOOTllJio.
./ H Arpa EIO~AeE OTOV MIl TOV OKTW~PIO 1990 IJE KEVTPIK~ IOOTlIJio DM2,95/ .
./ To 1991 - 1992, TO H.B. j)PIOKOTOV Olr] P06UTEPr] UCPEOr] OTTO Tr]I5EKoTia TOU 1930, I.IE Tr]V a
vEPyfo va ql6dvEI 010 9,9% TO 1992 oTT6 5,9% 1S00 XPOVIO EvwpiTEpO. XOPOKTilPIOlIKO lJOKPOOI
KOVOIJIKO IJEyt81l TTapouOICtC';OvTOI OTOV KOTWTEPW TTlvO KO.
EmAEYIJEVa MOKPOOIKOVOIJIKO ITolXEio TOU H.B., 1988 -1994
npay~aTl~ AE n [% M~?~O~~J
m~ewpla~6,
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lao,uYlo TpExouawv !uvaMaywv [% AEnJ
n~y~ :
11988 11989 11990 11991

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1992 1993 11994

-0,5
2,3
3,8
4.7
3.5
10,2
-1.9
9,2
0,0
9,9
-1 ,6
2,5
DECO EconomIc Outlook, "K~~PIO , 1995.
./ H OTTOPPt41fl Tile; Iuve~KIle; TOU Maastricht OTTO TOUe; .6.avoue;, OTIe; 2 louvfou 1992, KOI 11 O~(j)OIO
TIlTO Yla TtlV UTTEpll' ~tp la~ Ttl i) OTTO TOU e; rCtAAOUt; ll!1l!POCPOpoUt; Trlv KuplaK~ , 20 IETTTE~~piou ,
6rl\.lIoupYr]OE oj)[~aI6Tr'lTa ylO Tllv ouvX10r] Tr]e; TTOPEioC; rrpoe; T'1 V EUP WTfO"iK~ vOj.JIO lJaTl K~ EVO
TToillOil . AUT~ ISE 11 a~ E I3016TIlTO : vioxuo Tie; TTpooi5oK[(:e; Yla TTl8av~ UTTOTilJllOIl TWV OUlJlJtTEXO
VTWV OTO EN! VOlJlOlJaTWV tVOVTI TOU rEPIJOVIKOU IJOPKOU. ETTITTAEOV, I.IEiwVE T'lV avolJEvol-!VIl
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1\. yyi Ao<; A.
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00 TOU<; 11 ITOAIKtl -".lptTO Kalil OTEpAivo.
./ YTT~pXE Il TTPOOVOCPEp8Eioa O~Ei301oTllra Via TIlV tK~aoll TOU OllIJOlVIlc.piOIJOTOe; Trl<; KUpIOKtle;, 20
IETTTE~~piou , 1992, or~ roMio .
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TTpoTEPOIOTIlTEe;.
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./ To fOlo KOI 11, KOla YVIKtl TTopo15oXtl, avETTOPKtl<; IJElwoll TWV ETTITOKiwv TIl<; rEPlJovioe;, Til .6.w
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UTTOTliJr)OEIe;.
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1500 1500EIe;: OTTO 10% OE 12% KOI OTr] OUVEXEIO OE 15%. Al5uvaTwvrae;, oj.Jw<;, va ora~OTr\o1 Tllv
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ME Tllv mTiaOIl ouvr\8wC; OTa UTTEP-KtpiS'1 TOU George Soras, auv,,9we; TTapoyvwpi( ETOI TO YEyovoe;
OTi Il UTTOTilJr]all Tile; OTEp-".lvoe; tlrav aE iJEV6Ao po9jJo avalJEvo\JEVIl TToAu TTplV oUjJ~Ei. 01 aUVetlKEe;
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KIVIl9EI.
rUYKEKpllJVa, OJ Marcus Miller KOI Alan Sutherland Eixov TTpo~At~E.1 Tllv TTl9avoTIlTC UTTOTljJr)
OEW<; Tile; OTEpMvoe; aTT6 TO 1990, TOUACIXIOTOV 1% Xpovo TTPIV oUjJ~Ei. H TTpOi3AElVtl TOUe; ~OOI~O
TOV OTO 9EiJE-".IIi>151l 0lKOVOIJ1KO IJEVt91l TOU H.B., Kal Kupiw<; OTllv TTapOTtlPIlOIl on 11 ovraywvlOTlKO
TIlTO TWV TTpoT6vTWV Tile; xwpoe; EIXE Xr:IPOTEPEUOEI Myw TOU U4JIlAOU TTAIl8wpl01J0U Kal Tile; U4JIlAtle;
ovo~aOTIKr}e; 100Tl~lae; ElOaywy~e; Tile; OTEpAivae; OTOV MD . H ~E omi>AEla oVTOywvIOTIKOTIlTO<; OVTI
KOTOTTTpl(OTOV OTO I51Eupuv6iJEVO tMEI~iJO TOU lao~uvrou TPEXOUOWV ouvaMavwv, TO oTToio TO
1988 EiXE cp8aOEI OTO 3,5% TaU AEn.
([HI 1tEp1CJo6tEpEe; A1ITO)lEpE~Ee;, pAi:m:tE "The EMS Crisis in Retrospect". by Barry E ichen
{'leen, NBER Working Paper No. 8035, lI<Kt~PP tO~ 2000).
~ BllierE to Kt:c.paAaIO "Monetary and Exchange Rate Targets, and After: A Stochastic <Hard
Landing' for SteTling?" ala PI~A.tO Choo sing an Ex change Rate Regime, to Oltoio EKOO8IlKt: to
1990 ano
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21
KullOvjJqe,e &/rwat!lyoQSc xa, MO:l!QOOl"ovo~la - Ke'{'a.4 o 16

A~ ~I1V orro6il5ovTOI , ACITTOv, j.JOVIKEC; IKOVOTIlTEC; aroue; KEp1500KolTou<;, OKOIJIl KOI orav TaTTEJ
VWVOUV lJia IJEyaA'l OIKOVOIJIK~ iSuV01J1l OTTWC; TO H.B.. KOI aC; IJr)V KatllyapouVTOI aiSiKwc;, KOla HI
YVWIJ'l TaU ypa~oVToc; , Via TIC; acruvETTIE<; HIe; OII(OV0I-II",,<; TTOJ..ITIK~C; 01 OTToiE<; iSrJl,JlouPYoOv TI<;
rrpocri5oKiEC; 1(01 TIC; auVe~KEC; Via KEpi500KOTTlKE<; 111801<;.
TOUVOVTiov , urropxouv ao~apt<; (vi5d~[I(; 611 01 KEpi5ooKorrol at l(ooolE<; m :pmH.i.lO'W:;: lTpO

aq>tpouv arHmVTIKtl UTTIlPe:oia mo KOIVWVlK6 aOvoAo. ME TO a~'llJfWTO, ~tl3ala! ETTITOXUVOUV HI"
EYKOTclAEHVIl rroi.ITIKWV 01 OTTofEC; iSEV ~af18ouv GUIV i5IOTrlPrlOIIJIl aVaTTTU~1l 1(01 orroaxQA'lCJr1 .
LTlW TTEpimwoll TaU H.B. , r:m1oxuvav Til" EYKoniAEllp'l Tr1C; '1 aUVOAXaYIJClIKrlC; TTO"ITIK~C;. H
Op90HITO Tfl<; OTT0cp60EWC; OTTO(5EIKVUTaJ OTT6 TrlV TTlTclXuvall Tile; OVOTnu~We; KOI TIlV rOXEia TTTW
Oil Tile; aVEpyiac;, xwpie; avo150 TaU TThll9wplalJou. TOUVGvriov, a TThll9wplolJ6e; im:ot KciTW Ot 2,5%
TO
1994.
H qmetpla
t~ S
m:epAlvas avaoetlCV1iEl KimOltS
a~llaVnKts,
aU a OlIaVIWt; OIlOAOYOUIlE
V<;, aA~ael<;. Kat ' apx~v, Ol KpOOOK01tOl oev 1tltl8EVtal m: Konmo yOj..l.lojla onlY 1UXT].
E7r1AEYOUV VOjllcrjlatU 'W onolu \VOl f]oT] acr8EV~. T010UtOtpOn<D<;, auc/tvoUv tT]v m8avo
T~m
E1IlTUXiaS KOL f,etWVOUv t~V meWOt~ta a7toTuxlas. LT~ O""TEP~ 7ttp{Jr[wa~, o~Aao~ ,
E7ttTUX0U<; avnlltwnlaews TOUS a7to ns ApXt<;, ea fiXav !;~llitS. AvaAallPavow, O~AaO~ ,
TOV KIVOWO 1;~1l1WV, taV allotuxow, ana 0 KivouvoS tlvOt AtAoYlaIlEv0S KOL Ol !;~Illt,
OllYKpltlKa fl'Kpt, at oxta~ flE ta Ktpo~ at~v llEplJr[wa~ t 1IltUxlas
E1IlllAtov, ~ tllilljl~ aSlOmm:{as T~, OllvanaYllanK~t; TWAtnK~t; OEV aVTOvaKAa
KanOt<; tOLOtponl<; HOV uyopoov, aUa Eva ~iYjla OtKOYOjllKf]<; 1t"OhtlK~<; to onolo OEV i
VOl Ollvrn<; Ilt tOUt; m:oxou<; t~t;. Lt~v lltpIJr[wa~ T~<; AYYAla<;, ~ u7tEpnll~IlEv~ monilia
EVTaStw<; m:ov MLI OEV ~mv (J1)V1l~<; Ilt toV (noxa t~<; (KaVonOt~ntciJ<; wamuc;tw<; Kal
t~<; xall~A~<; avtpyla<;.
M UUt~ tllV MOLa, Ol KEpOOCJKOnol:, Ol ono(ol Kpla~OUY tponov tlYa tllV EYKata
Atlljl~ a\Y(~<; t~<; 1l0AmK~<;,
law<; llpoacpt pouv Ka7tOta u"'1POla m:o KOlVWVIKO oUVOAO.

AYYAiat;, avaYKOaav t~V KUptpv~a~ va 7tapt lllia a7to'{'aa~ ~ olloia,
OlKOVOlllKOUSAOyOU<;, ~Tav 1l1PtPA~flEv~ aAAa, y,a 7tOAltlKOUS AOYOUS, ou
LT~V 7ttplmwa~ t~t;
flt
auat~pwt;
aKoA~.
Mia an~ aA~etla Elva! on, &lav tKO~AweEl flia KtpoOaK01IlK~ rniet"'l, iawS ~ Ka
AUTEP~ t1IlAOY~ TolV Apxwv tiVOt va tYKOTaAtiljlouv T~V fl~-aS101tlat~ 7tOAlTttciJ amet pas
toonjl(a<;. AnocptUyouv av jlll n aAA.O, tllV amoA..la nov cruvaUaYjlaUKOW an09jlatwv
Kat to cruv aurit 0lljlocrtoVOj..l.lKO KOcrtO<;. A1toq>uyouv, nicrll<;, tllV apepatotllta KUl ta
UIjI~Aa
E1IlT6Kta TO o7tola a7tOltOuvra, oao OIOPKtI
7tpOa7taetla T~<; KEVtP1Kf]<;
tpant!;~<;
va OlUtT]p~crEl tllV lcrOtljlla.

Ynp tll<; EYKataAL\Vcc.o<; cruvllyopi KOl to on t o m8av6 OlKOVOjllKO KOcrtoc; tll<;
aw<; eivOL Il'Kp<iTEPO autou TO onoio q)Qpouvm, 01 ApXtS. LUYKEKp1IlEva, Ol ApXtS cpo
POuvtUl on JlE T~V eYKataAtIjl~ T~t; laonflias laws t"'1PEOm:ti apv~nKa ~ aSI01Ilatia
tou<;.
o aVT[AoyO, t ivat on
aSI01tlat[a OEV KEpoll;TUl flE
T~V EIlIlOv~
at Ilia 7tOAtnKti
onoia OEV tlVUl a~101tlcrtT]. H eyKataA.tl\V~ KUl avnKata<Ytacr~ tT] <; jl Va cruvErrb; jlElYjlO
OlKovollltciJS nOAtnKtis, lawt; OllIlPanEl aT~V EViaxuo~ T~S aSlO1Ilm:iat; TWV Apxwv.
TIoao nepmAtKouv t~V aOK~a~ t~<; OtKoVOlltKti<; nOAtnKtis 01 llpoaooKia; ! Kat fla
A.lcrta a jlla rrox~ onol) 01 tOLWtE<; OlKOYOjllKO{ napayoVtE<; jlnopouv va KtVl1tOn01~crouv
t Epacrna XPlljlatlKa noaa!
Adjustable Peg ..
H avaAuo~ ea yivtl ~E t~ pO~eeta TaU axtiflatOs 16.5. To axtifla oelXVtl Kata otlpav t~
o,axpov'Kti tStA1S~ t~<; loonllia<; S, [NV/], t~S avallEVo flEv~S ,aoTlflias ,S, (NV/], Kat
tOU 7rltOKIOU iNV.
H laonfl(a aUast Olio cpoptS: a1(o NV10/ at NVIII T~ m:1Yfl~ I" Kat atto
NV 12/ at NV 13/ t~ m:1WTI I, . METa an6 Kaet aUayti, nap EflEwt ametpa Yla fl,,aAO
XPOV'KO olaat~fla.
Lm Duo KaTw owypallflam, ~ 1l1lAt ypaflllTI avnaTolXEi at~v 7ttpimwa~ nou 0' Ap
XE<; KamAallPavow esan(v~<; TI<; ayopt<; Kaet cpopa nou alli!;tt ~ laOttllla. H ot K6KK'V~
22
Ot11v lIEpiittWOll1tOU Ot uyop6; 1Tpo08oKOllV on Sa U1TOttj.lllSEi 11 100tlj.llU KCr.1TOtU Ottyj.l~

Oto
!linov.
E,s,",
= NY I Ol ~aXPI T~
1+ 1, Nv121 arro T~ ony~~ 1+1 ~xpl T~V 1+2, Nvl3l a1[o T~ (mw~ 1+2 ~xpl
T~V rro~v~ urroTi~~o~, K.O.K .. Lu~<pOlva ~ T~V u1[68(J~ epyaoia" Ka8e <popa rrou u
1tOll~a:rUl 11 tootlj.lia, Ot ayopt~ 1WTIl)QUV Ott 11 vea tcron~iu bEY rrpOKEltat va j.ltU~ A.11
LT~V 1[p<ilT~ 1[pi1[T(O~, ~ ava~vo~v~ loon~ia ~TUV
OTlY~~
81.
E<pap~ot;ovTU, T~ auv8~KTj tcroOuva~ia,
TOlV 1tnOKlOlV, TO 1[nOKlO T~, xo.,pa, 8a

TO Olev, auv Ta aO<paAlO1pa KIV8i>VOU Kat peuOTOT~TU'. KUSe <popa 1I0U
au~~aivel urroTi~~o~, at txoVTe, KUTa8oEl, ae Novalue txouv apv~nK~ auvallay~an
Kit allo00~, aVT( T~, ~~OVIKi], T~V orroia rrpooooKouoav ~ T~V O1a8pa loon~ia . Esa
elvat (ao
~e
KOAOUSouv, OJ.lW~, va 9Etouv to EmtOKlO tOO j.lE iE' + RP

u1[OTi~~o~.
On r Ive,
+ LP, blon 8EY
1tEPt~tvouv clAAll
O~AuOi], ~ ~~ ava~vo~vll u1[OTi~~~,
avi]Kl 010 rrapA80v, vo.,

0\ 1CVOUT, a1[o<paoU;ouv ~ PaOEl n, 1[pooooKie, Yla TO ~llov (P411ET T~V V(n~TU
14.2 "ITpi Arro06aOlv"). A<pou ov rrpl~tvouv an~ U1[OT[~~cr~ , OV I;~TOUV Kat aVclAo
y~ a1[ot;~~iOlcr~ U1[O T~ ~op<p~ TOU UlJ!~AoTtpou err"o<1ou.
Ixf)~o
16.5. Adjustable Peg - b.uva"JlKrl
TWV
EnlToKiwv KOI
TWV IOOll~HlJV
laoTl~io, A\lO~EV6)J(vrl laoTJ~fo Kat ETTITOKla
S, [Nvl]
laOT!lJio
13 ............ .........
12 ....
10 ~---""
E,s.., [Nvl]
A\lCJIJvolJ1ff)
laoT1)Jia
13
12
I
-7
:I
10
iNV
ETT!TOKIO
+ RP+LP
L.
~
"
0~0l" ~ ",8avOT~TU
rrOn~aTUl ~ laon~[a
L
XpOVOI;
Ol APX, va KaTUAu~Pavouv sarr[v~, Tt<; ayopa, Ka8e <papa 1[OU U

elVUl rrpaKTlKa ~~OVlKi]. L aUTO auv~yopouv OUO A6yO\: ~ apv~n
K~ (1)VaAAay~attK~ urro8ooll tllV orroia urroKElvtut Ot E1[EYbUOVtE~ OtO VO~LOI,la tll~
'AyyEAor; A . AVT~ouA.xwr;
xm
23
pas KUSt <popu ltOU U1tOtlIlUTal, Kat ~ cruYKUpia U1{O t~V o1loia Aalljluvl xOOpa ~
Ullotill~
cr~.
Kat' apx~v , leoyro t~s apV~t1K~, cruvaAAaYllatlKTJS alloMcrro, crt~v Itpilttrocr~ u

1l0tlIlTt0troS, 01 ayopES Sa Elvat O typfJyopo~ . H i;~llia, uv at<pVtOtMTOUV, Kal to KEP
00" uv llpojlA\jfouv EYKaipros t~V EllEpxollev~ l)1rotill~cr~ , anoT EAouV t"lUpu Kiv~tpa
Yla Il~ E<p~ouxaollo.
EmllAWV, 01 ayopES Katavoouv llA~ProS ta Ki~tpa trov APXOOv ta oltoia oo~youv
Ot~V \)\OSEt~cr~ TOU ouo-rTtllaTO, adjustable peg. H o-raSEpa loottll"a, OE ouvouaollo 11
tOV U\jf~A6TEPO llA~SroPtOllo T~S xOOpas, llpOKaA\ omolaKl\ llpaYllatlKTt avati!l~o~ (evo
t~ta 13.3 "TIpaYllatlK~ IcrOtlllia"). Ol IlEmjlOAES OE t~s ovollao-rlKTtS lOotlllias o-r0Xu
ouv <TIO va avru:rta8~l(j1'C:( aur~ 11 amoALO avtay(J)vl(jnK6111ta~.
Luvouui;oVTas TO Kiv~TPO IlE T~V yvOOOll, 01 ayopES Otallop<pOOvouv tlS rrpooooKiES
yta !fIV loorqltU, yta !fIV E1S1+ / , (O~ c:~~c; : Meta uno Kci8 urro1'i~T\crll, ea npoO'ooKOUV on
Yla Ka1WlO XPOV lKO OlaOt~lla ~ lOOtlllia Sa llapallElVEl OmStpa. E<pawot;oVTas t~V cruv
eitK~ lOoouvallias E1tLTOKirov, IlEta a1lo KaeE ultotill~O~, TO EmtOKlo t~S xOOpas Sa Eivat
tOO ~ TO 8u::8VE<; cruv ta aocpaAlO'tpa K1VOUVOU Kat pEucrto-rrrrac;.
TIpo"(OVTOS tOu WOVOU, Ollroc;, Kat cruooroPEuOIlEv~S t11S llpaYllatlKTJS avattllTt0EroS
(jllcErrEtt "lEttKa t~v t<paplloYTt 13.4 "TIpaYllattKit Avatill~cr~ Kat AVtayrovlOttKot~ta
TIpocrolloiroo~"), Ol ayopES Sa apxicrouv va "l~llatit;ouv t~V ltpocrooKia Ott Sa U1l0ttll~
eEl ~ ovollacrttKTt lcrOttllia. MaAuna, Sa aU~o.VEtal cruv tro xpovro ~ ava llev6llEv~ u1loti
Il~o~, mSon Sa aU~aVEtat Kat ~ a1lOOAEta aVTayroVt"'lKoT~t a,. Mai;i Sa aU~aVtTat Kat
to E)'XffiplO E1UtOKlO.
H avrotEpro 1lEptypa<pEtcra crullrrEpuPOpa T~S avall ev ollEv~S tcrOttllias Kat TOU t1lltO
Kiou rrapoumat;ovtat IlE tlS KOKKlVES "'(paIlIlES ",0 OtUTEPO Kat tpito Olaypalllla tou OXTt
llatOS 16.5 .
Orrro, EXEt "lEOtacrtELTO "lTtlla 16.5, T~ XpOVlK~ OtlYIl~ /+ J ~ urrotill~o~ ~Tav 11
yaAUttp~ t~, avallevoIlEv~S. AVTtS"roS, t~ crttYIlTt 1+ 2 ~tav IltKpOtEp~ .
AVa<pOPlKa tOOpa IlE to Mundell- Fleming, ~ aVaAUcr~ Sa EiVat olt<OS crtDV rrpirrtro
cr~ au~~crtros T~S avallevollEv~S lOOtlllia, t~s evoTIlTaS 15.1 "lllatapaXES ano t~v Ayopa
LuvaUuwaTOS"
Crawling Peg.
Ecrtro Ii TO rrocro",o t~S u1l0nllTJOEros avO. lltpiooo. Ecrtro, E1tio~S, orrro, crulljlaivtt ouvit
Sro, Ot~V llpa~~, ott Ot APXES EXOUV avaKolvWol auto to noOOOto.
Eav '1 cruvaUaYllattKl\ 1l0AtttKTJ EXEl a~lomo-ria, to E1tltOKlO tcropporrias t~S xOOpas
So.
dVUl
if ~ i, + ii + RP+LP
Eav, ollroS, ~ ltOAltlKl\ OEY EXEt a~t01ll0tla Kat Ot ayopES llptIlEvOUV llEYaAutEp~ unoti
Il~~ , to 1l ltOKlO t~s XOOpaS ea EiVat U\jf~A6TEpO .
H a~tOmoT[a t~s ouvaAAaYllatlKTJS nOAtttK~S a1l0TEAEt tcrxupo Klv~tpo Yla t~V ava
KOlV(I)crT) Kat rtiPllOll. tou noooo-loU O. L1TlV avti8tT(1tEPl1ttW(JT] , ot ayopc; So. npkn"El va
TO cruvayouv arro T~V aKoAouSoullEV1lnpaKtlKTJ T~S KEYTPtKTJS TparrEI;~s. Errtoit O ea TE
AOUV U1l0 TOV otapKl\ <pojlo UnOttllitoEros, to cruvayof1Vo <I llaAAOV ea tlvat U\jf~A6tEPO
TOU llpaYllatlKOU - Ol ayopES npOttllOUV va O<pUAoUV allo t ~V acr<paAit rrAUpo.: EOOO va i;~
TOUV allot;~llirocr~ TOUAaXtcrtOV icr~ 11 T~V llapat11POUIlEY~ urroTlll~cr~.
'Evac; 1U1tAEOV 1..0)'0<; U1tEP 111<; avaKoLVffim~roc; ElVUl on t10t O(J~i)QV1at 0 1 APlEc;
To Kocnoc; OE opouC; o.~tOlwniac; EUV BEY lT1P~(JOUV to (5 arr01EAl arr01pEm tKO TCupayovTu
yla IlEyaAu TEp ~

1l0AtttKl\S
urroti).l~cr~ .
H avaKoivro,,~ , Aomov, 1l1lopEi va
au~tlOEt T~V a~LOntotia T~,
Ot rrpoo50 K[E ~ ElVUl rravTou Kal TCEpl1tAEKOUV TO EPYO HDV Apxwv ! Km OACDV 1(J)V
OlKOVOIHKcOV rrapuy6vTCDv !
'A yyeAor; A.
AVT~OUA,"Wr;
24
Target Zones .
AVa<poplKa ~8 TO Mundell - Fleming, oTav TO 8UpOS T~S t;<ilV~S ",val ~lKPO , ~ ava1.ucrTl 8a
Y1V8Tat ~8 cna88p's mOTlIl18S 'Orav dvat 1l8Y6.1.o, 118 ll8TaP1.~T'S IcrouIl18C;.
n 8palTEpOl, TO crUcn~lla target zone anoT8Al Va a7rDT81.WllaUKo 6mlla yla va a
vOAu8d 1t(()~, uno Ota88p~ toon~{~, 11 VO)llcr)lattK~ 1tOAtttK~ rrp1tl va OtU1StUl O"tllV
olaT~p~cr~ TOU crucntl~aTOC;.
BacrlKo crucrTauKo T~C; aVaAucr80lC; arroT8Al ~ olarrlcrTOlcrTl aU ~ napEIlPacrTl cn~v
ayopa cruvaUaYllaToc; Yla U7l8pacrmcr~ TOU crucn~~aTOS 7lPE7l81 va YlV8Tat ~8 ll8TaP01.ES
'tou yxwp{ou eTntOKloU. To. cruvoAAaYIlOttKU orro8)lato elVal 1[OAU )llKpa a O"XOTJ )l to
ouv~uK6 1ly880C; TOU Icrot;uYlou xp~~aTOOlKovoIlIKWV cruvaUaywv. E7licr~C;, 0 81<~p8Cl
crlloC; TWV 7lPO(JOOKIWV 08V ivat 7lavTa 8'1'IKT OS. Ma1.lcrTa, 07l0lC; aVE081~8 ~ crut;tlt~cr~
crT~v U7l0-8VOT~Ta "M~ A~l67ltcrTO ~ucrT~lla ~Ta88pwv Icron~lwv", ~ K8VTPlK~ Tpa7l8t;a
Sa avaYKat;8Tat va 7lap8~palv8l OTaV 01 rrpocrooK18C; ",Vat rrpoc; T~V aVTi8",~ T~C; 81<18u~~
t~~ KUtE'6euVO"l1 - KitH to onolo oumcOAO E1ttruyxaVEtat. E1tt1tAtov, Ot rrpocrooKle<; !dvouv
va dVa! aUTo-8mp8pawull8V8S.
~uYKKPll.lva, K6.8 qmpa rrou 11 lootl)lia ea tiVEl va \)1[Otll..11181 1teplocron:po ano
TO aVWTaTO OPIO T~C; t;wv~C;, ~ K8VTPI~ Tparr8t;a 8a rrpErr8l va au~aV8l TO EYXWPW 81<lTO
KlO. Me aut6v tOY tp6no, So. npooAKUOEl 1IEVOUtLKa KEc.paAata, CF t, au~6:vovra<; tTl
t;~T~cr~ Yla TO 8YXWPIO vOlllcr~a Kal oo~ywVTac; T~V Icrou~ la 8VTOC; TOlV oPlwv ~C; t;wv~C;.
To avrLOtpoq>o K6.9 'Papa. nOD 11 lootlilia 80 ttlVEl va QVO'tl)l118tl 1I:EPlOcrOtEPO uno to
KaTWTaTO OPIO T~C; t;wv~C;,
880lpdcr" T~V rr8plrrTOlcrTl 07l0U TO rupos T~C; t;wv~C; dVa! ~ya1.o. 'ExovTac; ll'Ya1.o
8UpOC; olClKU~avcr80lC;, crrravlOlC; ~ IcrO'(lllia 8a 'I'S6.v8l ma apIa T~C; t;wv~c;. Lrravlwc; 8a
xp8lat;8Tat va 7lap8Ilpalv81 crT~V ayopa cruvaUaYllaTOC; Kat ~ K8VTplKtl Tparr8t;a, ~8Ta
paUOVTac; Ta 8mTOKla T~C;.
'Eva rrpwTO 6'1'81.oC; 8a ",Vat ~ au~~~v~ a~10711mla. Lrravl8<; 7lap8~pacr8lC; crTlllaiv8l
Kat AlyOlEPOUC; rr8lpacrllouc; Yla 8YKUTaAnv~ TOU crumtlllaToc;. Apa Kat IlIKpOT8p~ m8a
VOT~TCl va crullPd.
Em7lUov, ~ K8VTPIKtl Tp6.7l8t;a 8a EX8l Kimoto rr8p18wpl0 1l8TClP01.tlC; TOU 8YXWp(OU
1lttOKiou,
Yia IllV avtq.lElffint<J11 owtapaxffiv KClt, YEV1KOtEpa, <rtCl 1I:Aaima 1'1<; (lVtl
KUKAIKtlC; 1I01.tnK~C;. M8 ~8Ya1.o 8UpOC; T~C; t;wv~C;, ~ ~EYlaT~ OuvaT!l U7l0Tl~~crTl ~ 07l01a
ivaI cru~paTtl 118 ~v a~to711mla TOU crucrT~~aTOC; 8lVCll crX8TlKa ~ya1.~. ~X8UKa 1l8ya1.~
ival KCll ~ 8711Tp7l6).lV~ IliWcrTl TOU EYXWP10U 7lITOKlOU cr8 rr8punOlcr~ 8711ppaouvcr8wC;
T~C; OIKovolllac;.
'Ocro 6~wC; ~81WV8Tal TO 8tipOS T~C; t;wvI1C;, ~ K8VTPIK~ Tparr8t;a 8a xp8lat;8Tat va rra
p8~paiv81 cruxvo1pa m~v ayopa cruvaUawaTOC;. Errl7lUov, 8a x8l IlIKp&r8pO rr8p18
PIO I1TClPOAtlC; TOU 8YXOlp(OU 81<lTOKlou. OumamlKa, ~ vOlllcr~auK~ 7l0AmK~ 8a 7lPEn8\
va 8mlat;8TClI 7l8PlO'(J0T8PO m~ OlaTtlP~crTl TOU crum~llaTOC; target zone.
LTO OPIO, 07l0U TO 8UpOS T~C; t;wv~c; Y1V8TCll Il~08VIKO KCll ~ lcrOTl~la ma88pa, ~ ola
ItlP~cr~ TOU crumit~aToc; IcrOTllllWV 8a a7l0T8Ai T~V rrp":n~ Kal arrOKA8lml~ 7lp01pCllO
T~Ta 1~C; K8VTPIK~C; TparrEt;~c;. H vO~lcrllaTlKtl rro1.tnKtl 08V 8a ~7l0pd va xp~mIl07l01~8d
yla T~V 7l1T8U~~ KClV8VOC; aUou moxou.
n8patlEpW, TO crUm~~a target zone a1l011.1 Va mAO on~a Yla va 0IX8i rrOlC; 01
XPllJ..latOOlKOVOJ..llKOi aVClA.UttC; \..l1tOPOUV va cruvayouv a~t61tl(:Ha (J1JJl1tEp6.aJ.luta )'10 J.lll
7lapaT~pOU~8Va Kat ~~ ll8Tp~m~a WYE8~, 07l0lC; 01 7lPOcrOOKl8C; T~C; ayopac;, a7lo rrapUT~
pou~8Va ~yES~. Mla cruyKKPl~V~ rr8pl71TOlcrTl ava1.U8Tat mo v8no 16.4.
'Ev8no 16.4. E nO:
noAAte;: q:lOptc;,
TIC; rrpocrl5oKie:C;
target zone.
'EOTW OTI
avwroro 1<01 TO
OVTO
TrW A
IOTIIOTia
EVO :[uaT ' aTO Tar et Zone
OTTO Tit;: rropoTrJPOUIJEVE<; rIlJEC; f. IlTOpouv va auvax80uv xp~allJa aUIJTTEpaOIJOTO Yla

TWV ayopwv. "Eva rrolo O'Uj.JlTtpool-I0 aXET i~TaI IJE lr)V a~loTiioTia [VOe; aUOT~lJaTOI)
TO NoValue Hl<; Utopia EXtl target zone IJE TO EUptiJ. To KarwTtpw aX~lJa I5e:iXVEI TO
Korwraro aplc Hl<; ~WVl1e;, SU Kal s", !-IE !,JTTAt oph::;6VTIe; VPOIJIJEC;, Kal TrlV I5laxpovlK~
E~tAI~~ T~<; laoTl~ io<; ~E T~ ~oup~ ypo~~~ .
AYYE1.oC; A.
AVT~ouAiiTOC;
25
KU~EO\lnaEtC
XonlJ.Cit CiYOQEc XCil M cx)(Q0otxovo!='-(a - KEt.p<iNxlO 16
no TI1 XPOVIKI'l OlIYIJI'l I , O(iXVEI HTia'l() TIlV 100TIIJl0 S" Ko9w() KOI TIlV ~ tYIO'lll UTTOTi\JIlOll KOI Til
IJtYIO'lIl OVaTIl-lllOfl aTllv TTEpfmwall TTOU TO aUOT/wa ivOI a~IOTTlOTO, ~fl A ao~, 01 ayopt<; TTPOOOO
KOUV OTI fl laOTll-lia ~EV 9a ~ETTpaaEI TO aPia Tfl<; ~wvrK
MtylOTI1 YnoTiIJIlOIl KOI AVDTil-lllOIl at A~IOTTlaTO LUOTI1\JO Target Zone
NV/
IOOTllJia
SV[NV/
l l -- - - - - - - - -}; -
MYlaT~
. s[!
YTTOTi~~a~
- S-
,
- S,
.. . ! }
Xp6voc;
KOTO TToaov TO ouaTIlI-l0 (iVai o~16TT1aTo I-JTTopEi va auvox8EI OTTO TTOpaTIlPOUIJEVO l-l e:yt91l I-lE E<p0p
I-l oy ~ Hl<; auv9r)KIl() looouvO lJio <; TTlTOKiwv.
To EV AOYW \J e:yt8 'l EivOi TO mlTOKla TaU NoValue KOI TaU EUpW, iNV KOI '(', 'llaOTllJla SI [NV/f].
Ko9w<; KOI TO OPIO Tfl<; ~wVIl<; , SU KGI
M RP+LP = 0, TO mJOTlll-lo d vol o~16TT1OTO OTav '1 lllo<popo TWV mTOKiwv TaU NoValue KOI
TaU EUPW Eival IJIKPOTPIl OTTO HI J.ItYIOTfl uTTOTil-lllOIl K01 I-lEya)..UTEPIl OTT6 Til I-ltYIOTIl QVOTilJllall TTOU
Eivol aUI-l,BoTE<; I-lE TO opla TIl<; .~wVIl<;
s'.
S' [NV I E]-S, [NV/ ]

.
.
SV[NV I
]-S,[NV IE]
S, [NVIE ]
< 'NV., - '
, S
S, [NV I E]
ATTOOEIKVUETOI I-lE nlY EI<; aToTTov ETTOyWY~ E6v faxu e:
' NV ,/ - I ,I
SV [NV IE]-S, [NV I E]

S, [NV If]
01 ayopE<; 80 OVE)JEVOV on TO NoValue 90 UTTOTl)J1l8E.i TTplooon:po OTTO on Eivol aUjJj)oTo )JE TO 0

VWTOTO OPIO TIl<; ~WV'l<; . ~UY/(E/(PI\..lEVO , OTTO Tfl OUV8r']KIllool5uval-lio<; TWV EmTOIdwv TTpoKIJrm :l OTI
E, S,., [NVIE]- S, [NV I E]
' NV,l- I
,I J:::.
S, lNV/ ]
AUT~ Til oxtail , OE auvouoal-l6 I-lE TIlV UTTOT8e:foo TTPOIlYOUI-lEVIl aVlaoTIlTO, 0lljJo fvEl on ,s/ .j >
Om:p ClTOTTOV.
AVTlOTOlxw(), E6v foxu
sU.
SL [NV IE]-S, [NV I E]
'NV,,-/
., <
S, [NV / ]
01 ayopt<; eo aVEI-lEvOV on TO NoValue 80 ovonjJIl8Ef TTEpl OOOTEPO aTTo on EivOi oUjJl3aTo IJE TO KO
TwraTO apia TIl<; ~WVIle; .
BEl3aiwe;, UTTOPXOUV KOI TO ompOAIOTpa KIVOUVOU KOI PEUOTOTIlTOe; TO OTTOrO TTEPITTAEKOUV TO
OXETIKO OU)JrrEpaOjJOTO . ~TIlV rrp6~Il , OjJwe;, oe: I.lll O~I(.'lTT10TO aUOT~lJmo target zone 11 (510<pOpd TWV
ETTITOKlwv ElvaI Toao IJEyaAIl TTOU (5v )JTTOPEi va OTTol509ci OlO cv AOYW OO<pOAIO'lPO.
rllV rrpOKTlK~ o~fo TWV ovwrEpw avollEIKVUEI TO KOTWTtpW OX~I-lO , TO OTToio TTapOUOIa~E l TO TPljJIlVI
ala ETTITO/(la Tile; lllmpam:~IK~e; oyopae; T1")e; 1T0Aiae; /(01 Tile; r Ep\..lovioe;, OC 1"))JPI'lOIO OUXV6T1")TO, arro
TIe; opxte; TaU 1990 EW() TO TUOe; TOU 1995. To ETTnoKlo OtV EIVOI Ot ET~ola ,Baofl. no va TO I.lETOTpt
\.VErt Ot ET~0I0 ~aOTj rroMorrAaOlaamt Enl TEOOCpO.
26
TpllJJtylaia EnlTOKla Tile;
.6.larparrE~IKr'Je;
Ayop6e; -ITaAia,
rEp~avia
lrOAia
5
4
3
:~
r(_p_~___avra
____- r_______ _r -_ __
111/90
111/91
1/1192
_ _______ .__________r ______- '
1/1193
1/1194
1/11'95
HjJEpa
nr'lYl1lu:OOIJvwV:
Oalastream.
naparrlP~oaTE 6TI aTO I.IEOa rErrTElJ!3pfou 1992, ,\iyo rrplv TIlV t~o(5o Tile; OTEpAivaS arr6 TOV MIl
cmv IllooTllJia TIlS ITO)..IK~S Alphas ~TOV KOVTO OTO avwTOTo OPIO TIlS ~wVIlS,
f) lSIO<pOPO TOU ha
NKOl! OTTO TO avrioTolXO rqJtJOVlKO CTTITOKIO ~TOV m:pi"rrou 3%.
s'.
16.5 ElolKa 0tlloTO

UUt~V 'U1V VOtllta, uvaAUOvtat tp[a CV5WqlEpovru ef:~uta. To npcino, ava~ou O
aUa, avaSwcvUl l((ll, flia 1ltTlJXTjfltvTj mlvaUaYflatlK~ 1I0AITIK~ nt'lnl 8ufla tTj, nl
TUxia, tTj,: I'1Tjflloupyi n, mlV8~K, 0\ orrois avanoq>UKta 8a oSTjY~crouv crtTjv ByKma
A11jI ~ tTj,. To Si>tpO mlvoljli~\ toll<; rrploplcrflou, crtTjv acrKljcrTj tTj, otKoVOflIK~, nOAl
tlK~<; urro ta 51eV~ 1tvoutl1(a KcpaAUla, VWto tpfro tOV(~l tOY POAO tOW npoo50KIWV
Kat tTjVal;ia tTj, al;to1ltcrtia,.
t.OVI(JIl6~ a
=EVO N61llallo - To bpllh6 KivllTPO TWV rm8pwv laoTIIlI
wv.
Y rro OPlcrfltvS mlVS~KS, Tj rrOAIttK~ crtaSpwv tcrOtlfllWV STjfltoupyi crtp~Aa KivTjtpa
crtaD<; KUlOiKOU" tls nlXlp~a\, Kat tls Tparr~, flia, XWpaS. LUflrrtWfla aUTWV twv Kl
V~TPOJV arrotAi 0 urrp~oAIKOS SaVlcrflOs crt l;tvo vOfllcrfla, mlvtrraa to UIjITjAOtpO KO
<J10~ El;u1IT\Pt~(JWC; tOW OUVE1(J)v UK6~ll Kat OUVtWV OlKOVO~lKWV rrapayovt(J)v 6rav EA
81 Tj wpa tTj, aA~ 8aa, - tTj, avarroq>uKH\S UrrOtlfl~crW"
0(J)PEiOtE to uKOAOueO ocvaplO, to orroio, rrapqJ.1t17rr6vt(J)C;, ~6vo eE(J)PlltlK6 5v
dvat. XapaKH\plcrnKo rrap6.SIYfla arrOtAOuV 0\ xwp, tTj, N.A. Aaia, lIplV allo T'lV
KpicrTj tOu 1997.
'EcrtOJ on crta lIAaima t 'l, OlKOVOfllK~, rrOAITIK~" Ol Arxt, tTj, Utopia aKOAou80uv
rrOAIttK~ crtaBpa, 1(J0nflia, tvavn tOU lJpw. H 1I0AIttK~ tTj, crm8pa, taOtlflia" oflOJ"
/iv dvat al;lomcrtTj: Ol ayopt, rrpocr/ioKouv UrrOtlflTjGlj tOU NoValue Kata 1I0crO<>to O.
E,S'+I [NV/)-S, [NV/ ) 0
S,[NV/e ]
>
:EuvrrEiu tWV npocr50Kl<OV tTlC; ayopac;, to f:1tlt6KlO tOU NoValue f:lVUl laO ~
iNlI.1 ~ if,1
+ b + RP+ LP >
ie.1
+ RP+LP
Ol 0IKOVO~tKO{ napa.yovtEC; tTlC; Utopia ~nopo uv va oavEl<J1ouv NoValues J1E rnttOKlO iNV,1
~ lJpW flo En\tOKIO i,:, + RP+LP.
ilaponto iNv., ElVOl u'VTlA.OtEPO tOU i.1 + RP+LP KUtU <5, Ol 5avEl~O~V0\ ea f:1lPE1lE
va EivOl a5lacpopOl ~E'ta~u to\) 5uVlo~oU Of: No Values Kat upW. 'Orrw<; crvaAUtm CHllv
q>ap floy~ 16. 1, to QvaflVO~vo t'l crt1Yfl~ / KO<>TO, taU 8avlcrflou dvat to iOIO.
A YYAO <; A. Avt(OUAcXTO<;
27
o 16.1.
AOVEIO
OE
::Evo No
10 0
'EOTW (m Til O'Tlv\Jr; I, laxuouv TO K(hwet:
./ I:r = 0,04 (4%)
./ S,: NVIO/
./ E~H::: NV J l/: rrpoalSoKia TFl~ oyapa;
./ RP = LP = 0, aTT"ouOH:UTIK~ uTTo80I1
ME (!,OPl-loYrl Tile; OU\!e~I(J1C; looi5uvolJ iaC; TWV ETTITOKiwv
l+iNy., :: ( 1+0,04)*'1 / 10::::)
iNV.t =
ME aurd TO i5i50IJEVa, !-lia ETOlpia Tile; Utopia r] olToia
0,0 144 (1 4,4%).
i5avEi~ETOI
Tr]
aTIYIJ~ I
A,: I.OOO ,
eo rrpETTEI va TTAI1PWOEI TrjV ur6IJEvll TTEpio~o
A I' !
= (I +i./)A, = ( 1+0,04) I.OOO = 1040.
Ta AI = 1.000 OVTIOTOIXOUV OE
~
B, : A, S,: I.OOO'NVIO/
H uOlpEia OovriOT'lK TO
TWV NV 10.000. eo
lOOOUVQjJO
NVIO.OOO.
TTPETW
l5 va rrArlPwotl Til
OTlVJ.J~ f+ 1 TO 100
iSUvQfJO TWV
B"
= ( l +i.r)A S/./ NoValues.
Eav ., 1000TIl-lio Til OTIVIJ~ / + I rrpoKUlI'EI fOil IJE Tr\V avo\JvOIJEVIl, i5rV.. a i5 ~ , St_/
rQlpEia 9a TTpOTEI va TTA'lptiJOEI
E',S,./
NY I lIE, '1 E
8/ . / = ( l+if .,)A SH = 1040NVI1 J = NV l1 440
KOI TO O"E NoValues KOOTOe; l5ovElolJou eo Eival TO TTPOKUTTTOV OTTO TIlV

ETTITOIdwv.
NVl1. 440 - NVIO.OOO

NV IO.OOO
2:uva~Klllool5uvalJroe;
01 44 (: 14 4%).
'
,
E6:v, OIJWC;, 01 APXEC; Tile; Utopia KOTOr,pE.pOUV va I5lon1P~oouv Tllv 1000TIIJl0 oT09Epa , I5FlAol5~ ,
NV IO/ = SI> 'l TOIPEfo
TTPETTEI va TTA'lPWOl
ea
BI+- I = ( l +if:()A SI
TWV
S / I =
1040NV IO/ = NV104 00
KOI TO at NoValues KOOTOe; OOVEIO\-lOU eo EivOi ioo \..IE TO EmTOKIO TOU EUpW.
BI +1 - Bt = NV1 0AOO- NV10.000

B,
NV IO.OOO
0,04 (: 4%).
rEVIKOTEpa, TO aE NoValues KOOTOC; TOU 00\110\..100 Tile; tTOlptioC; EivOi

(I
+ 'E' )AS", [NV/

,
J- AS, [NV/
AS,(NVlEj
KOI KOHl TTpoaEYYIOFl
B,., - B,
:o:I le,1
S", [NV/ ]- S,[NVI ]

+
S/ [NV/ ]
Edv TO EUPW aVOTlIJFleEJ, I5FlAaI5~, S/./ [NV/] > 51[NV/E}, TO KOO"TOe; oaVtlo\..lOU OE EUpW T'le; EWIPEloC;
eo ivOi UlV'lAoTEPO TOU ETTlTOKiou TaU EUpW. KOI OVTlOTPO<pWC;.

ME TOV iOIO TPOTTO TTPOKUTTTEI OTI TO OVOIJEVOIJEVO TFl
EivOi
XPOVlK~ OTlYIJ~ t
Koaroc; l5avElolJOu OE NoValues
Edv DE TO EUpW TTPOKU4IEIIOXUpOTEPO TOU OVOIJEVOIJEVOU, S,./ [NV/E} > E,5/"} rNV/ j , TO KOOTOC; Oo ~
VEIO\..lOU OE EUpW eo TTPOKU\I.IEI U\P'lAOTEPO TaU aVOIJEVOIJE.VOU. KOI OvnOTPOr,pWC;.
IlDyTj rUlv "poDAD~a.rmv arrOrEAe' D (npoamplvll) Emruxia rmv Apxwv TIl<; Utopia va/ita
rDPTjaEl rDv laon~ia ma9EpTj. kE aurTj Hlv rrEpinrmall, ro npay~anKo Koaro<; ocrvEla~ou
08 eupoo rrpOKurru:t tTl OtlYIlTl t+ I lao IJ..E ie, + RP+LP, I.UKPOu:pO tOU aV0J..lVolltvou Kat,
AYYEAor; A.
Avr~ouAO"oc;
28
qmmKu, 1l1KpO"t'EPO rou Koorou<; oaVlollOU oe NoValues. Ot exovn:<; oavElorei o eupffi

OEV urrm~oav "'lV ava ~EVO~EV'l apv~nKli ouvaAAny~anKli arroooal].
'Gam elxav oavloti OE E1.lpro, Ki:pblouv ! Kat auto to rrapan1Pouv KQI ro yvooPl
~ouv OAnt!
Eav D Ot ApXES ouvX(~ouv, rrapa TIS rrpOOOOKtS Tl]S ayopas, va OtaTl]POtlV Tl]V t
OOtlllia (rraaepU ~, YEVtKo"t'epa, va emtuyxavol)V )ltKpOtepll unOttllll011 ano tllV avallEVo
).lEVll, Ot Davl~o~EVOl O upw aa aUSl]aOtlv: Eh oton 0X'l~a1i~ouv Tl]V 1tpOaWrrtKij
rrpooooKla Ott 11 tOOttllia bv aa lletUPA11ai, it oton UAitlCjtOUV on 000 blupKe( 0 oa
veta~os TOUS ae SEvO vO flLO~a l] U1tOT4>l]O~ aa ivat fltKpOTepl] 1l]S avaflEVoflv'lS U1tO
1l]V uyopa. Kat ons OtlO rreptmwoelS avuflEvouv xafll]AOTpO KOOTOS Davetofl0tl urro on
a EYXWPtO V6~lOflU.
MaAtOTn, urro Tl]V (\jIGUoij) rrpocrooKiu TOU Xafll]AOTPOU Komous DaVtO~ou, taros
OUVttcrTOtlV rrplcrcr01POl arro on eav OEV um'lPxe auTij l]1tpocrooKiu, fle a1tOTtl..eafla u
1tep-e1tEVo;'cretS LUYKKptflva, fle TO XUfll]AOTepO avuflEVO~EVO KOcrTOS oUvetcrflOtl, rr
ptOOOTPU e1tEVDUUKa crxOta au rrpoKiJmouv ro, DUVl]UKa errtKepDij Kat au avaAaflPavo
V1Ut. Ot crxeuK, uvuAucretS K6crTOU, - rocpeAtius au eivUl aeTtKo18peS.
Ol ayop" oflros, crrruvtro, Kavouv waOS. Kat OTav e1lAaet l] uvarrocpeUK1~ urrQTt
~~Ol], TO KOOTOS oavetcrfl0tl aa eivul u\jIl]AOTepo 10U avuflEVofltvoU.
'0001 DUVeicr1l]KUV a GUpw ~e TIlv 'l'GUoij 1tpoaooKia TOU Xafll]AOtl KOOTOUS oavel
OflOU au aV1t~"'wrricrouv DUOKOAie, crTIlv SumlPtTIJ"'1 TroV Daveirov TOUS. Kurrotot aa
1l1roXeDOOuv. LTTI N.A. Aotu ijTav 100m rroMoi, w01e vu ODl]yijcrouv U, XwpS O Kptcrl].
6.u(J1(oAie.:; aa avtllltoonlaol)v, 01100<;, Kat 6crOl eixav baV1O'Tei cre eupoo xoop[<; va i
XOl)V tllV autumltrt tll<; ara8ep6.<; tcrOtt)lla<;. 'Onoo<; Kat eKlvOl Ot onoiOl ixouv Savl<1tei
flOVO oe EYXWpto VO~tO~U ij DEY txouv DUVt01ei KaaOAOU.
Ol rrTWXeDOetS 1WV 1lPWTWV aa txouv apV'11tKts ouvrrw:s O1l]V O1Kovoflia TIl, Xw
pas: H fl(ro"'1 TWV e1lEVOtlaerov, T .t, l] aUSl]0l]1l]S avepyias, l] Dl]fltoUpyiu KAi~a10s a
pepatOTl]TnS Kat Kpioeros, UNC i , elllDpOtlV apvl]uKu OTl]V aV!11lTUSl]. ArroTtAEOfla au
TWV ivat l] atlSl]cr'l1rov aO'l'aAi01prov KtVDtlVOU Yla 1l] xwpa Kat ~EYaAUTpl] urr01i~~0l]
ano Ott aVUIlVOtav npLv.
Ma~( fle Tn sepID) KaiyoVTUt Kat 1a XAropU ... '01tWS Kat ~ 10 contagion ...
'The Impossible Trinity'.
'Orrro, EXt avaAuaei OTa Mo rrpOl]youflEVa KecpaAata, flia fltKpij xwpa OEV flrropei va a
OKijoel avsapTl]Tl] vOflto~anKli 1lOAtnKij urro Kaaecr1Ws astorrtmrov OTn9pwv tcron~twv
Kat eAGU9pas Ktvijaews 1roV DU:9vwv eJtVDUTLKWV KEcpaAaiwv. EtOtKOtepa, fl TIl Luvaij
~ 'aODuvafl(us TWV E1llTOKirov TEK~l]ptWal]Ke on OEV flrropE( va E~PEUOEl TO EYXWPlO
",tOKlO (EStOWOetS [14.IOaJ Kat [14.10P], fle ,S, _I ~ S,) , EVW fle Tn oVUptU tl]S EVOtl]
TnS 15.5 "LeVapta OtKOVOfltKliS ITOAtnKT]S" on OEV ~rropti va ~peaot Otl18 TO rr(rrDo
rrapayroyT]s
H aDuva~ia autT] arro18Al ~ia a1to "1S 1ttmwoeu; 1l], yvrooTijs OTIl ptpAtoypacp(a ws
H AouvaTIl TPlUDa ('The Impossible Trinity'). ITapouolU~"'at 010 crxT]fla 16.6.
IX~lJa 16.6. H ACSUVaT'1 Tpu:il>Q
IT08pa 100T11J10, Av~opTllofa NOIJIOIJOTlK~<; nOr..ITIK~<; KOI Er..u8EPIl Klvllo" K<por..ofwv
29
AU<f'T'lPOl
EUVaAAaYJUXTLKOi
npLOplaJ,J.oi
M<TQPA~nj
'-_ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ -'l:TQ6'pa
Iao'TlJ,J.la
EAw8cpia K1vrlocwl) KCcpaAaiWV
l<fo'Tl~ia
Ol KOPU<PES 10U 1PlYWVOU 7tEplypaqlOuv 1pElS ,mAOYES 1~S auvaUawa1ltdjs 7tOAl1lK~S,

VOO Ol rrA"uptc; to oltOtd.t.allCttu toue;. Ot ElllAOytC; EtVat aUat11po( cruvaAAaYllattKoi llE
pLOPta~O~ ThoLOl wa" va ~~ v unapXEl Klv~~ 8lEI)vwv E7tEY8UnKWV KE<pQAallOv, 8~Au8~,
CF = 0, <JTa9Epa laon~la KCtl ~EmpA~1~ laon~la. To. a7t01EAEa~Q1a Elval aovaUay~a
tltal OlCtSEpOtY]ta, EAEu9Epia KLv~aE~ KE<paAaioov Kal aUtOVOIl11 vO~lallatlKi} J[OAl11K~_
To. (l7tOHAtCl~am K6.9E E1[tAoy~S 7tapOUmaI;OVTCtl 0.1[6 ns 1[AruPES TOU TPIYWVOU Ol

o7tol; KamAt'jyouv <JTllV aVTl<JTolm E7ttAOyt'j. To Ki>pLO aU~1[EpaClfla ElVCtl 6n flla fllKP~
xwpa 8EY fl7tOpEl va ExElwu16xpova cruvaUawanKt'j am9Ep61~m, EAEll9Epla KlV~ClEWS
KEq>aAa(wv Kat aUtOVOIl11 vOllla~atlKiI rrOAltlKi}_ Movo OUO arro auto._
1:UYKtKPlflEva, titv ~la xwpa rntAtf;El aU<JTllPOUS cruvaAl.awanKous 7tEpLOpla~ous,

va ExEl cruvaUayflantdj Clm9Ep6111Ta Kal aU10voflll vOfltaflantdj nOAl1lKij, aUit
0Xl EAEll9Epla K1VijClElOS ",<paAullOv. Ea.v EmAt~Et Cl1a9Epti ta01lflia, flnopEl va EXEt cru
vaUawa1Ltdj Cl1aeEpoT~Ta Kal EArueEpia KlvijaElOS KE<paAailOv, a AM 0Xl aUTovo~~ vo
~ta~antdj noAmK~ . ItAG<;, ECrv E7ttAEf;EI ~EwPAllTti lClonflia, ~7tOpEl va ExEl EAEueEpla
KlVijaElOS KE<paAaiwv Kal aUTOvOfl'l VOfltaflantdj 7tOAmK~ anit 0Xl cruvaUawanK~ ClTa
eEp01'lm.
H A8uvaT'l Tpla8w> 7tapafli:vu aKOfl'l KCtl 6Tav 'l KOPU<pij "1:meEpa Iaon~ia" 0.
VnmTU<JTaeEl ~E " EAErxoflEVTI Iaonflia" ("Managed Float") ~ flE o7toL08~n01E EY8uiflEOO
crUCl1'lfla. ME KanOlES EllVO~TES npoClaPfloYES, pEPalws.
E7tiCl'lS, 'l AMva1'l Tpu18 w> l"XUEl KCtl Yla flEyaAES XWpES ME flla 8la<popa: AKO
~1[opEi
Ill) Kat IlE O'ta9Epa lO'onllia, 11 vOlltcrllattKtl :n:oAlnKit J.l1IOpe:i va ElVCll a1tOtEAEcrllanKit, va
E1t11PEaaEl to 'YXWptO EItttOKtO Kat tllV nopayooytl_ H a1totEAa~attKOt11t6. '!1lC;. 01100<;, 1tE
pLOpil;ETat ano 1~V EA!:U9EP'l Kiv'lCl~ E7tEY8UnKWV KE<paAaiwv, 61[wS avaAUe~KE Cl1'lV EYO
16.2. rIEpatT tpW, EnOX!:UEt Kat TO rIpopA'l~a N-J (PAt7tETE Tllv EY01'lTU 13.6
"1:umtiflam loon~lwv - 1:uVTOfl'lIClmpltdj Ava8poflt'j").
T~Ta
o P6l\o~ TWV rIpoalioKlwv Kal H A~ia TIJ~ A~lo1TlaTia~.

'Eva OAOKA'lpwfli:vo Kat a[;107ttClTO
np6ypa~fla OlKOVO~ltdjS
rroAmtdj<;, flE[;EKa9apous Kat
Eq>tX'tOU<; crroxouC;, E7tllPE6.~Et 9Ettl(0. ttC; rrpOO'OOKlEC; tWV VOlK01<UptWV, tooV E1ttXEtpilaEwv
Kat TWV ayopwv, auf;itvoVTas Eml TIS m9avOT'l1ES E1Il1Uxias mu. rIonw 8E fltiUov, omv
urrOPXEt El.lptia KOtVWVlKit cruvalvEcrl), l) o:n:Ola au~uVE l tllV m9avO'!l1ta E1tt'!UXOU<; E<pap
~oytis
wu 7tPoypti~flQ10S
rEtOta rrpoypo.~~ata. 1l0AAOV crrro.vtCl crtllV rrpocr<patll OtKOVOlltKtl Latopia. ExOUV tll
8uvafllKt'j va EK7tAt'jf;ouv flE 1~V Elllwxia muse No. txouv KaAU1Epa TOU avaflEvofli:vou
1[OTEAtClflaTa.
:A YYE),O c:, .A. AV1S00\"TOc:,
0.
30
KAacrcmco 1tapuoElYfla a1tOHAzL ~ eLpapfloyi] EVO'; (naeEp01tOt~nKOU rcPoYPuflflaTO';

JpAavofa, to 1987. 'Eva (mpoypaflfla arcEAmoia9' t o orcoio, l.6Yffi t~.; oumcOA~'; Ka
tUO'lUO(1)t; tilt:; OlKOVOI..L1,Oot;. EiXt gupdu auvaivEO'll
To eV AOYffi rcpoypaflfla oo~y~aE OTO E1tOvofla(oflEVo ipAavOtKo BaUfla, TO orcoio,
01tffi'; avaAU",at OTO M Eta 16.5, flOVO eaufla Sev ~tav. 'H-rav tva aE,t6mcno flEiyfla ata
eEpO){Ol~nK~S rcoAmK~';, aE flia euvO\K~ cruYK1l pia. fJapci tauta, "apaflEVEl rcapUOEtYfla
"po,; flifl~o~.
(n~v
'Ev8ETO 16.5. To 'I hav61Ko ea,; a ' - AlTO u8olTof a
01 ~ciaEI~ TOU eaUJ..lOTO~ ETE91l0aV aro i5EUTEPO !-ItaQ TrlS OEKQETfac; TOU 1980. Xdpf'l Of: auro, " Ip
Aavoio , lJia xwpa TIl<; anolae; 01 vtOI OV9PWTTOI I-IHOVaOU:uav ava~'lTliJVTa<; KoAlm:PIl TUX'l, I-IETE
rpaTT'l at xwpa - urrooEIYI..IO <pap\-loy~<; crr09EPOTTOlflnK"C; TTO"IT1K~<;.
H l,JTTElpia TIl<; lp'\ov15lo<;, Ol-lw<;, ElVa! Ev15lo'llEpouoa KOI Via Evav OKOIJ'l Aoyo : H E<papIJocr8Ef
aa auaTOATIK~ i5rllJOOlOVOI-IIKrl TToAITIKrl (iXE TO oVTf8no TO U aVOIJEVOIJEVOU OTTOTEAOI-lOTO : AVTi Via
TTl!3pai5uvOll " OK61-11l KOI U<PEOTI. 00r1YIlOE or. ETTITOXUVCff) TrlS avaTTTO~EW<; .
IE aUTO TO tveno eo OTTo)Ju8oTTOlll8Ei TO <dpAOVl)IKO 00UlJo , 8ouIJora E~ aMou i5Ev vfvovral
OTI']V OlKOVOlJfO - OTTWC; Kar' ETTOVOAI']4JI'] EXEI ovo<pEp8Ef. K01 80 ouvoX80uv

Via TI']V EMai5o.
XP~01IJO
OUIJTTEpcrOlJara
IpAovi5fa - ETTlAEYI.IEVOI OIKOV0I.IIKOf AdKTE<;

loo~uYIO
nA~9w
plo~6<;
'ETO<;
1980
1981
[%]
18,3
-.-. -
AVEpyia
[%]
7,3
--20,4
1982
-- - 1983
..
-1984
-
1985
- ..-
-1986 -_._.
1987
-1988
.
1989
1990
9.9
-11 ,4
13,5
17, 1
-10,5
.
8,6
~ J5,0
16,8
5,5
3,8
-_. 17.1
3, 1
__ ~6, 9
2, 1
.. 16,3
4,1
._ 15.1
3,3
12,9
--
MEa", Opo,
1991 - 2000
2000
TPEXoucrWV
LUVOAAOYWV
npOOTTO
E8vIKO
AOYIOI.JO~
[% AEn]
[%AEn]
-10,5
-12, 1_
-1 2, 7
-13, 1
Xpto<;
[% AEn]
71,3
-~
-9,2
-5,8
-_-5,3
-- -3 ,7
-3, I
-0,2
-----0,0
~
- I O ,9
-9, 1
. -1 0,4
_._- _.
~,2_
75,9
8 1,6
92,7
96,8
99,7
110,8
-0,8
-2,8
112L
108,5
99, 1
92,6
---
- -- - ~
-4,3
_ _-_I.]
01J 0 <;"
[.000.000]
3,40
3,44
..
3,47
.. . 3,50
3,53
---_. -
~2
nA~eU
--_
r -j,54
3,54
3,54
3,52
3,52
3,5 1
2,9
11,3
1,6
-0,4
61,1
5,3
5,0
_1 ,4
3,8
35,7
3,8
nl']YEe;: DECO Economic Outlook (i5lcl<pOPE<;" EKl)6oEI<;") KOI Intemational Financial Statistics.
DTTWC; TEKIJI']PIWVETOI oTT6 TO DiOIXEfo TOU avWTtpW TTivOKO, oro TTPWTO 1J106 Tile; l)EKa E Tlo~ TaU 1980
IllpAOVi5IK~ OIKovolJlo EIJ<POVI~E TToMt~ OVIOOPpOTTIE~: ulJ.!I']A6 TTAIl8wp10IJO , l)1lIJ~<PIO TTOOOOTO OVEP
yioe;, Ulpl']AO tMElIJIJo DiO 100~UY10 Tp.Xouowv OUVOAAOVWV, OI4'~q;IO tMEI)JIJO TOU TTPOUTTOAOVI
OIJOU , U4'IlAO KOI raxuTorcr oU~OV6)JEVO E8vIK6 xptoC;.
H KaraOTOOT] ~TOV TOOO clcrxlllJIl, 01 TTpool)OKfEC; T600 OTTOIOlOl)O~E~ KOI 01 EUKOlpfE~ Via TOU~
vtoue; TOOO AfV(e;, TTOU UTT~PXE tvTOvO IJETOVOOTEUTIKO prUIJO. Av OI.pOlptOEI KOVEi<; TI'] q;UOIKr'] OU~Il
all , a TTAI']8uo)J6c:;: Tile:;: Xwpo<; oUOIaonKcl )JEIWvOrav K08' 6AIl Til OIO:PKfJO TI']e; i5EKoETiac; TOU 1980, KOI
6X1lJ6vo ylo TIlv TPIETio 1988 -1990 lTOU <poivnol OTOV TTivOKO.
To ol1IJlo KaI.lTT~e:;: rimv 11 EKAOYr) vEae; KUj)tpVr)Owe; TO 1987. naPOTI i5EV EIX TTAEloIVIl<pia OTIl 80u
Ar) , teoE we; OTOXO TIlv ~uVloVOll TWV i51']l.loafwv OIKOVOIJIKWV: TI'] I-.u:fwo'l TOU E9vIKOU xptoue:;: KO!
TOU EMEfIJ)JoToe; TOU npoUTToAOY10IJOU. To QUOTI']pO TTp6YPOIJIJO, TO OTTOrO TTPOt~AETT IJElWOll TWV
i51']lJoafwv OclTTOVWV, EIX TIlv UTTOOT~PI~Il TaU aTTA8oVTOe:;: ono TI']V E~ouoia KOIJIJOTOe:;:, E~aO(pOAi~o
VTOe; t TOI EUPEIO KOIVWVIKr) OUVOiVEOll
fV.AWOTE, 11 KOTaOTOO'1 Tile; OIKOVOlJioc; ~TOV TETOIO TTOU i5v qlolv6rav vcr UTTOPXOUV TToMte; (
VOMOKTlKt~ TTIAOyt~. 'Evo aMo ora9EpOTTOIl']TIKO TTPOYPOIJIJO , TO 1982, i5EV EIX ETTlTUXio: H nopo
i5IKr) IJEiwOll TaU illEiIJIJOTOe; TOU TTPOUTTOAOYIOIJOU, OE: 9,1% TOU AEn TO 1984 OTTO 13,1% TO 1982,
EiXE IJEY<iA.O KOOTOC;: U<pEO'1 KOI clV0(50 Tile:;: oVEPyiae;. H oVEpyia tcp9oO" OTO 17, 1% TO 1987, OTTO
i\ yyeAoc; A.
Avt~ooAinoc;
3J
11,4% TO 1982. ETTjOI'\~ , TO TTPOYPO]J]JO ~ool~6TOV OE OU~llal'\ T'l~ cpopoA oyio~ 1'\ OTTOrO 0'l\.lloupYEi
KOI avn-KiVl1TpO ylO Epyooio KOI 15rJl..1I0upYIK~ TTpocmdBEIO .
To OToBEPOTTOI'lTlKO TTPOyPO\.l\.lO TaU 1987 EIXE avtATTlOTI'\ ETTlTUxla. UXI ]Jovo \.lElwBf)Kav TO
EBvlKO xpto~ KOI TO EMEIIJI..lO TaU TTPOUTTOAoYIO IJOU TOXUTEPO OTTO 6TI OVOIJEVOTOV, oMo. , TTITTAtov, a
puB\.l6~ au~riaEw~ TOU TTpaY\.lOTlKOU AEn EKnVaXBIlK OTO 4,7% TO 1987, OTTO -0,4% TO TTPOrjYOUIJE
va ETOe;, KOI tcpBoaE TO 7,8% TO 1990.
AVTiBETO OTTO TllY TUTTlK~ OIKOVO]JIK~ avdAuoll, ~TOV lJio ETTEKTOTIK~ OUaTaAnK~ TToAlTlKri (ex
pansionary fiscal contraction) .
KOI 11 ETTITUXio EIXE 15lopKEla. >OiVETOI OTTO ne; OUO TEAE;UTOfEe; YPOIJIJE~ TaU OVWTtpW rriVOKO KOI
TOvi~ETQI orro TO YEyovoe; Oll '11pAov15ia EfXE J,lEXPI TO ).lEOO T'1e; 15EKoETiae; TaU 2000 orro TOUe; u\.jJ'1)..Q
TEPOU~ puBlJoue; OIKOVOIJIK~~ ovorrnj~Ew~ Olf)V Eupw- ~(i)V'l .
TToM t~ aTpE~AwOEI~
TTpoypd\.l\.lmo~ otpEiAETal OE apKEToOe;

TTapdYOVTEe;.
Ev oUVTo).lia , T) apVf1T1K~ Erri Tf)~ rropaywy~~ rni15pao'1 Trj~ J.JEIWOEWe; TWV 15'1IJOoiwv l5aTTavwv
(G -t, 11 Ka\.lTTuA'lIS J,JETOTorri~ETal rrpoe; TO aplOTEpd) urrEp-ovnomB]JiOT'1KE OTTO T'1
./ BEATiwo'1 TWV TTPOOOOKIWV TWV VOIKOKUPIWV (Il KOIJTTOA'1 IS IJTOTOrrf~ETOJ TTPO<; TO l5E~ld ). H 0
~IOTTIoTfa TOU TTPOVpO\.l\.lOTOe;, TTpolov T'1~ OTTocpaOIOTIKOl'1TOe; Tr'l<; vtoe; KU~EPVriO E W<; KOI Tile; (U
pElae; auvOIvtcn:w<; yJO T'1V aVOYKOI6T'lTO TOU rrpoyp6).llJaTO~, \.IlWOE TIlV aIlE~0I6TT)Ta (UNe .J.. ).
ETT1TT)..OV, ETTIlPi.OOE BEnKo TIe; rrpooooKIEe; Yla TO IJEMOVTlKO l5loBtollJO EIOOO'llJa (EYD t): H
OVO\.lEVO\.lEV'1 \.Iiwo'1 TOU Q'11..100l0V0I..IIKOU u..AEllJlJaTo<; \.lEiwo lOU<; ava\.lEvo]JEVOUe; OTO J.JtMov
H TTEpa orro KoBE rrpooooKla EITITUxia TOU OTo6porrOI'1T1KOU
'Popau,.
./ BtATrWOll Tr'l<; oVTaywvIOTIKOTIlTO<; TWV TTpoToVTWV Tile; xwpo'e; Myw TIl<; rrpol')YI')BEiolle; TO 1986
U TTOTIIJ~OEWe; TIl<; IpAavoIK~C; Aipa<; (T) KOJ,JTTUAIlIS IJETQTOrri~ETOI rrpo<; TO OE~IO) .
./ MElwOIl TaU OVOIJOOTIKOIJ EITITOKfou laoppoTTio~ (11 KOIJTTUAIl BP::O IJTOTOTTi~ETOI rrpoS' TO KOTW)
A6vw 0) T'1S' UTTOTI]JriOEwe; - ]JEIWB'1KE 0 opoe; (EtSl ;1 - 5/ ) I 5/, KOI \3) TIl<; !JmiloEw<; TOU oocpoAi
OTPOU KIVl5UVOU -RP J.- OTTOTtAEO)JO TIl<; O~loTTloTia<; TaU npoypalJ)JaTOC;.
./ BEArfwOIl Tile; TTpooj3aOEwe; OE (50VEI0!JO TWV VOIKOKUPIWV KOI EITIXElpriOEWV (11 KOIJTTuAIl IS IJE
TOTOTTf ~ETOI rrpoc; TO 15E~lci ) mo TOTEaTTEAEu8EPWVO\.lEVO XP'1]JOT001KOVO!..llKO OUOTr)IJO .
./ nEpalTtpw ~EATiwOIl TWV TTPOOOOKIWV TWV VOIKOKUPIWV, TWV ETTIXElpriOEWV Kal TWV oyopwv Ao
yw Tile; apXIK~e; EIT1TUXioe; TaU rrpoypaJ.JIJOTOe;.
KarrolOI ano TOUe; ovwTEpw rropayoVTEe;, IJE TTPOE~dpxoUOEe; TI<; TTP00l50KiE<; TWV VOIKOKUPIWV, TWV
ETTlXEIPtlOEWV KOI TWV avopwv, EVEPVOTTOltl81lKOV OTTO TO 11510 TO rrpOvp0J.JJ.Ja.
KaTTOIOI 0.,).),,01 rrapaYOVTEe; ~rav rrpol'ov Tile; EUVO\'Ktle; oUYKupia~ . H UTTOTilJll0'l TaU 1986 tYIVE
aTO rrAalOio TaU MH EVW '1 oTTEAEuBtpwOIl TaU XPr'l!JOTOOIKOVO!JIKOO OUOT~!JOTO~ ~TOV OTO TTAofOiO
TIlS' TOTE l5lolJoPCPouJ,JEVIl<; TTaYKOal..liwc; niaEwc; VIO aTTEAEU6tpwaT) T'1e; olKovol..liac; KOI Twvavopwv.
ME TT)V EK TWV uOTtpwv VVWO'1 , Mmov, (5Ev xpE,a~Era, '1 KoracpUVr; 010 UTTEP-CPUOIKO YIO Tt'lV E~r;YIl0'1 Tt'}e; ETTITUXi0S' TOU oT06EPOTTOI'lTIKOU TTPOYPO).lIJOTO<; Tile; IpAavl5ia<;. Avn6tTwc;, Tovi ~:TQl 0 poAoC;
TWV TTPOOQOKIWV K01 '1 a~ia Tile; O~IOTT'OTfO~, KoBw<; KOI '1 8ETIKr; aMIlAErril5poori TOUe;. Tovi~ETol, E
TTiOlle;, on 01 1500KoAE<; OTTocpaOEIS' . 01 EvtXOUOE~ IJEvaAo QUVIlTIKO rroAITIKO KOOTOC; , iow<; EV rtAEI va
EivOI 01 EUKOMTEpEe; KOI va OTTOcptpo uv TToAITIKO ocpEAo~.
nC; OOK'lOf), rrpO~A'l\.laTioTEil[ rrOIOI OTTO TOUe; TTpoavacpEpBEVTE<; TTapo.YOVTE~ l5EV AEITOUPYOOv
OTIl
!Joe;.
xwpa
na 1tEPI0'(J6H:Pt~ /..J(tollipt llA;,
cnJ;nC'l E'to
ap8po
"Can Severe Fiscal Contractions De Expan
sionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries". by Francesco Giavazzi and Marco Pagano,
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 5, 1990. pp. 75 - III.
:A YYSAor; A. AVT~OUA(hor;
32
TO ynO.t.ElrMA MUNDELL - FLEMING (MEPOI B) .......................................................... 1
16.1 EIIArorH ............... ............... .. .......... ................. ... .............. ............... ................................. I
16.2 MIKPH )(nPA - EnEKTAIEII ..................................................... ....................... .......... ....... .. 2
16.3 MErMH )(nPA - IENAPIA OIKONOMIKHI nOAITIKHL................................................... 10
16.4 'AMA IVrTHMATA IVNAMArMAnKoN lroTIMION ............ .. .............................. .............. 15
16.5 EIIIIKA 0EMATA ................................................................................................................ 27
TO ynO.t.EIrMA MUNDELL - FLEMING (MEPOI B ) .......................................................... 1
16.1 EIIArorH .................................. .............................. .............. ................................. ............. 1
16.2 MIKPH )(nPA- EnEKTAIEII .................... .. ........................................................................ 2
IuVaMOVlJaTlKOf nEploprO"lJoi & AopavoTTofrlOfl ...

............ 2
Ix~~a 16.1 . LuvaMay~aTlKoi nEplOplO'~oi KOJ Eyxwpro ETTlTOKIO

.... .. .... 4
LX~lJa 16.2. MEiw0'l TaU 6lE8vouc; ETiiTOKiou IJE IuvaMaYIJOTIKOUC; n EprOpIO\.lOUC; .. .... 6
nEpi TWV I.uVaMOVIJOTlKWV AnoBquJTWV...

............. 7
'Ev8ETO 16.1. IuvaMaYI-lOTIKWV ATTo8qJorwv TO napdi5o~a ..

. . ........... 9
16.3 MErMH )(nPA - IENAPIA OIKONOMIKHI nOAITIKHI .......... .. .................. ................... ... 10
EnKTaTIKrl NOIJIOIJOTIKIi nOAITIKtl Yrro IToBEPrllaoTillia. , .

......... .. I I
I.X~lJa
16.3,
Em:K ToIIK~ NOIJIO'lJaTlK~ nO)..ITIK~ - LTa8EP~ 10'0111-110 . .
EnEKTaTlKIi NOIJ10J..lOTlKr;
IX~lJa 16.4. ETrEl'::TaTlK~
11
......... 13
........ 13
. . .... .....
Yno Mnof3A.'1Tr; 10'011I-1io...

NOIJIOIJOnKr'} n OAITIKr; - METa~AllTr'llaoTllJia ....
nOAITIKrl
LvdplO OIKOVOIJIKr)t; nONTIKrlt; - LUvolV'l . ..

nlVOKOC; 16.1. MEYOA'l Xwpo - Av6AuOfl ~VOPIWV OIKOVOIJIK~<; nOAITlK~<; .
16.4 AMA IVITHMATA IVNMMrMATIKoN IIOTIMION ..............................
.. ........ 14
........ 14
.................... 15
M'l A~161Tlaro LUarrUJO (Non-credible) ItoBpwv loon~Jlwv .

LX~)Ja 16.5. Mfl-A~16TT1aTo LUOTfl~O ~TaBEpwv IOOTlIJ1wv.. . ............ ....
'EV8ETO 16.2. KEp<500KOTTlKtC; ETTl8tOEIC; - EK TOU ACJ(poAouC;: ..
'Ev8ETO 16.3. George Soros KOI fl Kpio'l T'l<; ~TEpAfva<; TOV ImEIJPpIO 1992 ..
Adjustable Peg .. .
IX~lJa 16.5. Adjustable Peg - AUVOIJIK~ TWV ETTITOKIWV KOI TWV laoTllJlwv..
Crawling Peg...
Target Zones , ..
'Ev6ETO 16.4. E~ET6<OVTOI:; Trlv ~loTTIaTio EV6<; rUOT~\JOToc; Target Zone..
......... 15
... ...... 16
........ 17
. 19
.. ......... 22
.. .... 23
............ 24
........ 25
.. .... 25
16.5 EIIIIKA 0EMATA ................................................................................................................27
.6.avEIO\JOe; OE =EVO NO\J1oIJo - To LTpEj3Aa Kiv'lTPO TWV LT08EPWV IOOTlI.IIWV . ... ...... 27
E<pap~oy~
16.1 .
llOvEla~6<; 'JE ~tvo N6~I<J)Ja ..
... .................
'The Impossible Trinity'..

LX~\JO 16.6. H A<5UVOTfl T pI6elo..
o PoAoe; TWV npool)oKlwv KOI H A~io Hlt; A~lo1TlaTioe;,..
'Ev6ETO 16.5. To 'IPAov61KO 90uIJo' - A noIJU8arroi'lo'l..
.. ............ .....
.. .... 28
.. ..... 29
. ..... 29
.. ..... 30
.. ... 31
33
'. ~
'''-
Ku!3eovn Q ?tC XenUC.ttgYODSC & MtXOOOlxoyoVla
Kf:tp~NxtO
17
17
.6.IE9vI'J ETTEVliuTIKcl KEq)(IAOIO

KivliuVOl, EUKOIpiE<;;, AVTIIlETWTTlO"I]
"Small open economies are like boats on an open sea. One cannot predict when
(hey 'night capsize; bad steering increases the chances of disaster and a leaky boat
mokes it inevitable. But their chances of being broadsided by a wave are signifi
cant no matter how well they are steered and no matter how seaworthy they are."
Joseph E. Stiglitz, Chief Econom ist of the World Bank, in 'Boats.
Planes and Cap ital F lows', Financial Times, March 25, 1998)
(EAEu8 Pll A7toOOOll) 01 ).llKpE:~ aVotKtt<; OtKov o,.li~ IvaI 67t(o<; ~apK(;<; OLl1V 0
8aAooaa. Kavdr; BEv ,Ll7topi va 7tpoPAbVl nOTE Sa avo1toooyupicrouy 11
KClKT) 7tAollYll0T) aul;av1 n; m9av6nrtfx; lCataOTpQ(p~<; KOI ).lin TpiHno POPKO T'lV
KaVEl OVUit6qlf.1..)I("t'l_ A.JJ.iJ. 'l1tl9avOT'lTa va aVaTpa1tl a1to EVa KUIJO ival IJ,EYUA.'l,
VOII(t~
QVE~ap!Trta
01t0 TO 1t6cro KOMi lOJPPVUWI Kctl1tOcrO a~101tAo'l Eivou)
1tapo~oiQ)cr'l TaU Josseph Stiglitz, E1tlK<paA.Tir; OlKOVO,UOMryou !Tlr; D.l9vour;

Tpa1ti:l'';'lr; tOtE Kal TI'u'l8tvtor; ,U TO PpoPLio NO,U7tEA ota O lKovO ~lKa 1"0 200 I, d
val 7tOAU 1tapCl(:rtCtTIKil avaqlOpIKcl J.1 TOUr; K1VOUVOUr; yw flia 1J,1KPtl OlKOVOlJ,io mro
Ta OlE9vt'j 7tE:VouTtlca n<paA.CtlQ. ~ro aVOJTEpW anocrnacr,Ua avrlKa'taOtt'jaoTE T'l At
~'l ' Kata<ITpoqltl ' ,U 'cruvfJ.A.Aay,UonKtlKpio'l ', 'Ka ld] nAot'jy'lOll' ,U 'KaK~ OlKOVO
,UIKTt nOAl1"lKt'j', 'TpUma papKa ' ,UE 'OIKovo,Uia,UE nollir; aV\ooppomEr;', 'av01KT~
8ci.Aacraa' ,U 'Sld}VEr; XP'lfla'tOOlKOYOflIK6 oUOT'l~O', 'Ku,Ua ' ,UE 'ol9vit 1tE:VbUTtKCt
K<p0A,mU' Kat ' a~167tAo'l ' fl 'uytit eflAIWS., OIKOVOfllKO fltyte.,',
17,1 ElaaywYrl
H 6lpa <~, uA~SUI, <!pSa,, ! To lIapav K!pUAatO "UVSi:1:l n, ava),';"l, Kat ta (J1)~lI
pa.o~ata OA(J)V tWV npOllYOu~tvwv, ~E ot6XO va KaAlHVt oll~avnKCt. KEVCt. tOU 'puzzle'
tll~ OtKovo~ia~ KUl tWV ayopwv Kal, tOtoutotp61t(J)~, va ~AttcOO El tllv tKavOtllta tWV a
vaYVOJ"t61v va m~6.Al.ouv K6.lIOla t6.~~ "to X6.o, tOJV xp~~atOOlKovo~IK61v 1;Al~OJv.
Tl:AIKO 6q>eAo~ ea e(vat 01 KaAUttptC; ano<paotlc;, Kal, ,Ua1tcrta, Ot tva OIKOVO,U1KO lU:p16
~aAAOV "'0 onolo i)v un6.PXouv anaAUtE, alIavnie1l, a 8IA~~~ata OlKOVO~tK~, MAttI
K1l~ Kat EmX,lpll ~attKcOV Kat 1[EVOUtIKWV a1[ocpa.owv.
To Ke!p6.AatO SeKtv6. ~ t~V nap6.Sea~ tOJV SetlK61v Kat apv~nK61v tOJV i)leSv61v e
1tEVOUtlKWV KtcpaAaiwv, ttKJ.l.llplcOvovrac; tllv Kttllllall Ott to \OO~UY10 XPTJllat001KOVO~.Il
KroV auva1Aa.y6:w ElVaI to 1<JXUPOtEPO KUVaAl J.l. EOCO tOu O1roiou TJ Otev~c; OlKOVOllta Kat 0\
818vei<; xp~~atayop<, 1t~peal;ouv t~V yx61pta OIKOVo~i(l Kal xp~~atuyop'" Ti1toTe
at~v OlKOVO~IKl'j I;OJ~ liev eiVUl XOJpi, KoatO,_ Kat 8~ ta 8leSv~ ellVliunK6. Ke<p6.Ama. A
VaOtlKVUovta~ Ot tOU~ KlVOUVOU~ tOU~ 01[O{OU~ EVtXOUV, ~1tOpOUV va KUVOUV Illa ttntUXf\
Iltv~ OlKOVOIlIKl'j 1l0AlTlKl'j va lI,ael Su~a t~, emwx(a, t~,.
Ell] (J1)VtXlU, ~ (J1)1;~t~a~ Yla tOU, (J1)vanay~atlKOU, lleplOpla~o,;, ava8l1CV,;el,
avCt.~taa a clAAa 8llatU, 6n tttOtol1tpl0Pta~oi, napon Il1[OPOUV U1[O npoij1t0 8taE L~ va
tt8aatuouv 'YlU Kanoto XPOVIKO OlCt.atlllla to. ol8vit 1tEVOUttKCt. Kt<p6.Aaw, oev U1[OttAOUV
naVaKtla: .6.llllIOUPYouv ~)'Ct.AO KoatO~ atOU~ OlKOVO~tKo\)~ nap6.YOvtEC;. E1[I1[AtOV, y\a
va. 1[apa~eivouv a1l0ttAta~atlKOi 1tprnel1tpOOOEUtIKCt va YlVOvtat auOtllP6tEP0l, ~E OJ~o
t'Aa~a <0 aUSavo!lVo KaatO, TOU, KWtOla anw~ va ~enep6.aet TO anoLO 0'1'),6, TOU,.
AKa~~ XlpoTepa, to Koeno, TOJV 1lep lOpla ~61v eivUl liuaavaAoya ~y6.AO yw tOU, aaSe
rl.yysAO( A. A",ouAciTO(
'
KU~ E p\l n O tC Xenua:w.YODC
& 1 1t>CRoOlXOV0lJ-lCt
K~tpliA!XtO
17
ytcru:pou; OtKOVO~tKOU; napayOvtE;, autOUr; lOUe; onoloD; Ol 7tptOplcr~oi npocrnu8ouv va

npocrtllu:uaouv.
To OtA~~~O'O "jJV OleSVWV em;"ounKw" Ke<paAailOv avoow(vua tn nepm,tplO ~
crui;~,~a~ YlO ne; cruvaAAowonKte; Kpia"e;. lJopu ,~v nepi 'ou ovnS~ou ruptlOe; omOe
oo~tvll emm.J1Tt, aut~ Ol Kp(crE1C; OEV au~paivouv we; KEpaovo{ :V mapia)) DUtE Eivm ilno
n?),o\lu t(J)Y OUVO\loo(JtWV K6.1tOHOV oKon:wwv KtvrpWV unoc.paoEoov. Eivat avu1t6cpEU1crll
O"UVf:1tE1U IlCYCtACDY aVlooppomwv GIllY OlKOVOlllU, at onOlEr; aVlcropponlEC; cStOYKWVOVWl
Kat <pSuvouv ,> Kpim~o ~ tyeSoe; ae ~aSoe; XP6vou.

lJePt1tAtKovme; ne; ax""te; ovaMale;, Kat au~~aAAo,,"ae; anlv nePl~anouaa 'a
otE8vij
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"

VL Krl(
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a
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lIepiOOO va eiVat '0 iOla KataU~Ao ym OAeS n<; XWPeS. 'Onms oev ultapxet Kat
Kavtva crU'H~~a to altaia etvat to evoeOety~tvo Yla ~ia aUYKKplfl~ xwpa ae OAeS ttc;
nep 1000Ue;.
Auto Of: to crU)l1U~paa!la avrovoKAu 860 paOtKC; OtUmcrtWOEl<; YlO tllV 01KOVO).llK~
!;lo ~ : TIpWtOv, oev ultapxauv uKaAee; AUaete;. H ULOSEt~O"~ OlIo(Quo~note O"UO"t~flatos oev
apKei ym va EntAUSaUv ltpO~A~flata Kat avtaappanieS 1I0U auaampua""at exi ~aKpov.
lJ6ao Oe flaHov otav nonu an6 au,a ta lIpa~A~~a,a ltpaKaAaUvtal ana amaSfl~tOUe;
napaya,,"ee; wus onoiaus 0'" flnoPei va eAtyl;et ~ va elt~peaaa flia xwpa.
L'>eU'epav, rneto~ 01 OlKOVOfllKOi napuYOvtee; oev avtlOpouV fl~xav lKa aUa ltpoaap
flol;ovtat mle; fl"apaUOf1evec; cruvS~Ke;, ~ u106tTI\a~ KanOlOU O"UYKeKplfltvau cru01~flCI
tOe; taanfllmv an EAeUSepWVel OUVUf1le; Ot OlIaiEe; eiVat ouO"KaAo va ltpa~Ae<pSouv el; op
x~e; De; alIOttAeafla, to teAlKO anOttAeafla etvat flaUov alIpO~AElttO, Kat 0Xl ltavta
crufl~a,o f1 ns ltpaO"ooKiEe;.
XapaK,~p(QnK6., m~ OeKaet(a tOU 1980 ~ aUfl~ouA~ lIpas n s avamuO"O"O~evee; XW
pEe; ~tav va <JUv8tcrOl}V to VOj.HO)lU l OUe; m: KanO\O lOxup6. llpOKE1)ltvOU va avrq.l.Etomi
aow toy 'Ote uljI~A6 lIA~6mplO"flo . ~t~ beKaetia tOU 1990, OlIOU '1 opa~lanKit ai>l;~cr~
tmV o"Svwv ",evounKmv <paAaemv aUal;e tOue; Kavov<; 'au lIalYVlolOu, ~ cru~~auA~
~tCIV ~anav aUYKeXU~~: 3eK1vwvtas alIo ne; ltoUt s vafl",~anKts KpiaetS t~S OeKCIe
tias, aUal eta~yau,,"a t~V ulOStt~a~ cruot~~a,oe; ~eta~A~tWV 100an~tWv evw ciUal ,~v
Ulo8ttllO'll crucrt~JlatOC; crta8Eprov 10'Otll.llcllV.
6.ucrKOmovtm; t o tpyo nov
OUYKpttlKCt
EU11JI.Epia toW 1tOAltWV .

To KUPlO cru~1tpacr)la ElVUL Ott 8.sv D1tUPXf:L KUVf:Va crocrtr\l.w to onolo os )lia cr\}
JJ XPOVW
~anKcDv LOOtq..wbv.. AvttK(~.u:v6 tll~ anOTEA-OUV to
aniflatOS, fle KP"~PlO ,~ ouv~nK~ O"ufl~aA~ tOU crt~v exi'ruI;~ tmV atoxmv ,~<; OIKova
fllKitS ltaAmKite;: lKaVOltOl~nKO puS~o OlKOVOfllK~e; avamul;eme;, UIjI~A~ altaaXOA~a~,
ata6epoTI\ta nflmv, el;aAelljl~ tmv flaKpoOlKovofllKmv aVlaOpp01IlwV, KOl, ev ttAe~ t~V
Em:vOUtlKCr. KE<pa/..Olu aupa lOU Jluatl1Piou, Ol aVlOopponiEc; <fOXV6: ElVOl unoTEAE
afla rnnuxoue; OlKoVofllKite; noAlHKite;. Mio rnnux~e; 1(OAlHKit auxva O~~lOUpyg( tvav ep
YOO IKO KUKAO taXeiae; avanti>l;elOe;, alma061;lOv npoO"ooKlWV Kat elO"pOWV <paAailOv. TIa
pevtpY"',e; autou tau KUKAau eiVat 01 aVlO"opponiee; 01 anaiEe; oo~yau" ae Kpia~: U1j1~AOe;
nA~SmplO"~6e; ano t~V nAeupci t~e; i;~,~aelOe;, unep-oav1O"~Oe; -~tpae; wu anoiou eiVat ae
I;tva vO~lafla- Kat unep-enevoualS, Olupuvo~eva enifl~ata tau laai;uyiou tpexouawv
cruvaUaywv, ... Xlpa'epeUo,,"ae; m npaYflata, OtaV I;Wltaael ~ Kpi"'l, 0 epyOOlKOe; KU
KAoS ultatpOma!;l ae <pauAo
H avlDttplO mnaypa<peiaa ltOAlHK~, ~ onoia lIEqnet SUfla t~e; e1Iltuxiae; "1e;, altate
Aet flia aK6fl~ tvoetl;~ on atov ouvafllK6 Koa~o O"tav alIaia i;01)~l oev ulIapxouv eU KaAeS
a1Ian~O"ete;: H OtOlpapa ~iae; E1IltUXOUS lIoAmKits alIo flia ltOAmK~ ~ alIoia KataA~yl ae
KpiO"~ eiVatnaAu Aexni. MaAlO1a, rn~pea~"al alto napayonES 01 altaiOl oev eAErxaVtal
alIa ne; ApxtS flias xwpas, 6Jtme; Ol cruvS~Ke; crne; OleSVete; xp~flatayopte; Ol OltoiEe; cruxva
KUflaiva""at fletal;U aKpaTI\e; ru<popiae; Kat f1eyaA~<; alIatmaool;iae;. ~uvrnme;, OAol Ol 01
KovofllKai napayonee; ltpEnel va teAauv O"e cru"eX~ eyp~yapa~
To <paAaLO KAivet ~ ~io crUnafl~ crUYKp,a~ tmv Kupimv cruat~fla'mv cruvoUay
XPllJ.10tOOlKOVOJllKroV
UVOAlYrWV, 01 uVunpw OW1WJtro
aele; nonte; <popte; anOllOla!;ouv altO tOY O~flO"'O olaAoyo. Onme; 1I0AAEe; <popte; anouala
sEt Kat to UUlOVOl1tO : Kavtva cruO"
tJlllU bEY I.11tOPEL va U1tOKatacrt~cr El Ilia OAOKAllPw~tvll
OlKOVO~tKit 1tOAtnK'li Kat tOU~ lO"XUpOU~ eEcr~O\)~ Ot 07t0(m a7tattOUVtal yta tllV <pap~oyiI
KuB:::evnQtC XonuCllct.yoOC & :rvitXOOorHOVOlllCl. - K:::t.pciAato 17
tTv;. lotaltEpa cnov a11jlEpIvO KOcrjlO, OItOU 011tpOaOoK1E'; 1tai~ouv OTljluvtlK6 p6AO, YeO 01
Loxupoi 8EO~oi OU~PaAAOUV o''l o,a8Ep6''l,a ,OUS
17.2 AIE9vr; ElTEVliuTiKO KE<pOAalO - AIArlIJIJOTO

Ta 0\E8v~ EncvounKiI KELpaAaLa anm EAOUV tva a~LpLAtyo~cvo 8t~a ana t'lV E1tOX~ tOU
Kcrvova tOU Xpuaou (pAtn"E ''lV cvot'lta 13.6 "LUat~~am [aotL~Hi)V - Luvto~'ll
atOpLKit Avaopo~""). Lns 'l~tPES ~as, txE' KatClOtEi aKO~'l nEplaaOtEpO a~LptAEYo~Vo,
KOSOtl tXEI O\)vb9i 11 t11V naYKoojlt01tOt'laTl KOt to O'UV autit SE'rlKU Kat apV'ltlKO.
H aJeit8Ela, wS au~8ws, ppiaKEtaL Kanou at'l ~ta'l. Ta cv Myw KELpaAala OUtE a

1tOtEAOUV navuKlo, onoo.; ruaYYEAi~ovtal KanOIOl KUKMH, OUtE ElVal 11 attto 6Aoov nov
OElVWV t11'; OIKOVOjltO';, 6noo.; OWtEIVOVtUl K6:n01ol ciAA01. Eov XP11OljlOnOl119 0uv aooato,
~nopouv va aU~paAAOUV at'lv OIKOVO~LKli avantUS'l. Ano t'lv apV'ltlKit nAtupa, OCV l
vat eUKOAO va XP11otjlOnOL1190uv omoto. rt' auto ouaXEpalvouv t11V aOK11011 '[11'; OLKOVO
~LK"S nOAmKits Kal Ka8Latotiv OAES ns XWPES, ~IKPES KaL ~EYaAES, EUOAWtES aE KpiaEIS
OnwS, O'lAaO", Ka8E n at'lv OlKOVO~lK" i;w~, to OIE8~ EnCVOUtIKO KELpOAata txouv 8En
KO Kat OPV11tLKci.
EvrEivovra.; t OY npopA'ljlonajlo Yl' aUta, 0\ yYtKc;Ucn:u; Eivm napaKIVOUVEUJltv<;.
Katu n600v to 9ttKO unEptEpouV HOV OPV11ttKWV ono n o; 10LOitEpEe; OUV9ftKE<; KoB xw
pas Kat Ka9E OlKOVO~IKOU napaYOVta SEXWPlata, <a9ws Kat ana tU; YCVIKOtEPES auv8~
KES atu; 018vElS xp 'l~amyopES Kat t1]V olE9vil o IKovo~ia.
na t'l ~Eiwa'l tWV oUV'lnKWV lIapcvEpYEHnV tOus anamitat auVExits EYp~yopa'l Kat
jltyOA11 nELeapx[o on6 6AOU'; tou.; OlKOVOjlIKOU<; napuyoVtE<;, Kat OU'toue; Ol on0101 ooc.p
AOUV'tat ajlEaO ono ta EV AOYW KEc.paAOla Kat an6 t OU'; unoAoinou.;. Xp11GljlOnoleOVto<;
Hlv OVaAOY[o 'tou Stiglitz o'to EtOOYWYIKO KEijlEVO t ou Kc.pOAO(OU, OAOl Ol OlKOVOjltKOi
napaYOVtES ~[as xwpas lv!n at'lv iota paPKa. Ano 6noLa nAEUpa Kat yw onOloo"nOtE
A6yo va KaVEt VEPU, eo KlVOUVEUOOUV 6AOl Ol Em~atE<;: Kat 't11'; A' @toEw9> Kat tllr;
r' 0E:OE(9).
Anam:itat, E1tia'lS, KataU'lA'l 9EO~IKit unooo~it : KaAa opyavw~tvo xp'l~atOOIKo

to onoio 8a oloXEt/iJEl tU; lapot<; KELpaAaiwv aE napaYWYIKES EnCVOU
alS Kat 8a anOtpEnEI tIf; anoam8EpOnOl'lnKES EKpOtS. Xwpi<; aut~ t'lv U1WOO~~, '1 01
Kovo~ia 8a EiVat E"'ppEn"s aE ~EYilAES OlaKU~<lVaEU; (pAEn"E to tvestO 17.3) tWV onoi
wv '1 au~8'lS Kat<lA'lS'l Eivol '1 Kpia'l.
MaAlam, 'l tinaPS'l tEtOlas unooo~~s, anOtEAEi avaYKaia aUa 0XI IKa~ auv8~K'l
YLa t'lV anoLpuy~ tWV KpiaEwv. BAEnEtE xapaKt'lPlatlKa to napaoEly~a 'wv H.TI.A. ato
v8Eto 16.1 "LuvaUay~atLKWV AnOeE~atWV to TIapaoo~a" , Kat ato tv8sto 17.2.
VO~IKO atiat'l~a
Ol onoc.paOEte; OAWV tWV OLKOVOjllKWV nopay6v'twv, Kat, Kat' Enttcracrll. Ol XPlljlOtO

OlKOVOjlIKE:e; OVOAOOElr;, nEpl1tAKOV'tat on6 jlla avanoc.pEuKt11 npaY~latlK6tllta: Ol pot.;
'tow EV A6yw KE<poAaiwv nllpEU~OVtOl ano ne; npo080KlE~ tOW OlE9vC;w E1tEVOUHl>v. Au
tt" o~WS, EiVat nOAti EU~EtaPA~tES. En'lPEai;oVtOl OE ano nAtions oaES napa~tpous
1lOUtS EK tWV ono[wv oX' ~ovo oV En~pai;oVtat ano tlS ApXtS ~ias xwpas, aUa, Ent
nAtov, EivOl ouaKOAo va npOpAELp80tiv.
6cv Eivat AOl1l0V K080AOU nEpiEpyo OtlnAEiatES oaES EIlJlElP'KES ~ElliES OCV tEK~'l
pu.i1VOOV ECr.V 'ta 9E'nKU nov OlE8veOv E7tYOUTlKWV KEtpOAatWV onprEpouv 'tWV apVTFlKWV.
'Ev8ETO 17.1 . .6.IE8v ETTEVQUTIKa KE dA.ma - H E 1..10,\6 a TOU 'Economist'
Til VEVIK6TEP'l olJ<JI19ulJia 0XETIKO IJE TO i5IEev~ ETTEv(5UTlKO KEtpoAolO EKtppa~EJ TO KaTW9] orr6arra
01-.10. Of. Ef,E(JeEp" oTT60001l, aTT6 ap9po2 TaU tYKPlTOU Economist:
no
I
jlia rcoA:U ICO Atl KUl ruavayvroorll crVvo'!''l '[toV aXT1KWY jlM:tWV, PJ.. br&u: '[0 Kf:<pUAOlO "The
Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No free Lunch", t'l ~ Kristin J. Forbes, m:'A... 17 1
199 (}tov OUA.A.oYIKO '[o jlo Capital Comrols and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies.
Pract ices and Consequences, roy o1toia EIDJ.lAtl9'lKE 0 Sebastian Edwards Kat Ei;bwm: 0 OiKO<;
Chicago University Press "'(0 2007.
2 "A Place for Capital Controls" ) The Econo mist, 1~ Maiou 2003.
ria TTaMES avcmrucroOjJEV<; XWP<;', 01 xwpiC;
TT[PIOPIO~OlJ(;
[lapels ETTEV6uTIKWV KE<pa
Aoiwv ({val Evas, OTTQ(PEUKTio<;. Kfv6uvo<;

Edv KOTTOIO Il:ita tXtl lllv xwpi<; [vl)OIaO'~ou<; UTTOOTl'lPI~'1 TOU Economist, [ivai QUlt') TOU (
AEU9rpOU qJTTopiou. AlTO Evtm:tiJ<; TOU , 0 Economist .fvOI tv8EP)JOS UTTOOTflPIKTr')C;: TaU xwpfc; IT.p'
0P'Ol.lou<; 6lE8vou<; EI,JTTopfou. To EAEU8EPO q.moplo, orrw<; TTclVTQ UTTOOT'lpi~alJ[, crulJ136MEt onlv
wmJEpia, [v9apPUvEI lllv EIPr')VIl IJETa~U TWV E8vwv Kat (IVOI QVQrrOanOOTO jJtpo<;. r'1C; EAEu8Epfa<;,
TaU mOIJOU. aiVETOI AOYIKO va UTTo8tOEI KOVEi<;, on aUTO TO olTole IOXUEI Via TO 51E8vt<;, EIJTTOplO or.
aya86 KOI UTTflPEOiE<;' JOXUEI KOI Via TO qmoplo Ot KEcpdAOIO (TTEpIOUOIQKci OTOIXEia) , OTTon: 01 O'U
vaAAaYI-IOTIKOf TTEPIOPIO)Jof Sa rrpoatl3oAov TI<; .uolo8rtOiE<; IJO<; TO fOlD OTTW<; KOI 01 6001J0i, <pEP' El
TTEfv, OTI<; IJTTOvavE<;. To 1500 8t~aTO EXOUV TToAAa KOlva, oAAa 6EV EivOl TO [610. Doo Kat va EivOl 60
OTTETTTO, 01 oTT060f Tr]<; EAE08EPIl<; olKovojJio<; TTptTTEl va TTopaiSEx800v OTl KcmolOl ouvoAAoYlJaTlKOf
TTEPIOPIOlJoi, UTTO 0PIOIJEVE<; ouv8~KES , EivOI 6IKOlOAoYIlIJEVO!.
rlOTi TO EjJTT6pI0 OE KECPOAOIO EivOi OIO<POPUlKO OTTO TO EjJTTOPIO OE oya60 KOt UTTrJPEOiES;
600 Kupfws "6youS. npWTOV, 01 i5IE8vi<; XPIlI..IOTOYOPES EivOI ETTlPPETTEi<; OE MBIl, EVW 01 618vEi<;
ayOPES aya8wv OX!. lH:OTPOV, 11 nl..lwpia ylO XPlll..laTOOIKOVOl..IlKO AaBIl IJTTopd vo Eivol 6POKOVTElO,
KOI TEivEI va ETTlTTiTTTEI KOI Of: o8wouS, 0XI IJOVO OE 60VEI~OIJEVOUS KO! TTlOTWTE<;. 01 TEAEUTOfES OEKOE
Ti.<;. Kat liSlOiTEPO 11 iSEKonia TOU 1990, aVE6EI~OV aUT~v Tllv TTpaWOTlK6T'1TO IJE TPOIJOKTIK~ OQ(p~
VEla . MEyaAo KOIJOTO KEcpaAafwv EIOtppEUOOV OTrJV AVOTOAIK~ Aoio KOI OT'l AonVIK~ AIJEpIKr'j Kat
~acpVlKO aV(OTpaq:>'100V. Ev IJIO WKTi, 01 jJEXPI TOTE ETT1TUXIlI..IEV.S OIKOVOl..liE<; ~u8ioTIlKOV OE ~a8la
O<pEOIl )}
no
T'1v a~io TIlS OVWTEPW E~OlJoA.OY~OEWS av06EIKVOEI TO YEyov6<; OTl 0 Economist (ivOi yvwOT6S Ylo
T'lV OX(OOV oOYIJOTlKrl TTioTil TOU OTIS OPEriS Tl'lS (M06EP'1S, xwpiS KpanKO TTopq..ll3anOIJO , OIKOVO
lJia<; .
ItT] crusirCT\011 Kal(!)'"cEpW n:aputteEVtaL tU SE1lKo. Kat UPVTJ1"lKo.. rta va 10VtOn:t 6n OEV
unopxouv ano)..U1f:C; anavtliauc; ata aX1:tKn EPWU'U..I.OtO, KnSE SEnKO
it
opVllnKO OKO
Aou8hat ano TOV axE1tKO aVTiAoyo, i\oym o T~, nOAunAOKOT~Hl(; T~, OlKOVO~lKli, sm
~e;, ~ nA~p~e; avaAua~ K6aTOUe; - mcpAlae; ival satpTlKa 8UaKOA~ Kal Ka~[a aXTlKli
cruS~T~"'l oov ~nopl va [yat nA~p~e;,
0TlKO.
Ta o18v~ 1tOVOUTlKU KcpaAma au~~6.Uouv aT1]v OlKOVO~lKli avantus~ ~tam apKtOOv

olauAmv. E1Uypa~~aTlKU,
./ E1UTptnouv T~ xp~~aToooT~a~ Tmv EUEl~~aTWV TOU taoi;uy[ou TPExouaOOv auvaUa
yOOv, CA < 0,
./ naptxouv nEplaaOTEpEe; EnovourlKte; 1[lAoyte; aTOU<; Kato[KOUe; Kat tle; EmX.lp~aEle; ~[
ae; xOOpae;,
./ O~~LOUpyotiV KaAUTEpa Klv~Tpa aE OAOUe; TOUe; OlKOVO~lKOUe; napayOV!Ee;, Tmv APXeDV
aU~nEptAa~~aVO~Evmv,
./ xp~~aToooTOUV u~ae; sEvEe; 1tOVOUaElc;,

./ napExouv ~ gyaAtiTEp ~ Kat xa ~~A6tEpOU KaatOUe; xp~~utOoaT~a~ aE gyXOOploue; OlKO
vO~IlKotie; napaYOV!Ee;.
i\EmO~EpElEe; aKoAou8otiv.
XPHMATOAOTHH TOY CA < O. Kat ' apx~v, 1(1 napoDlKu EUE[ ~~a1(1 DOV xpEUli;ETat va
aV!l~1:m"U;oV!al ~E cruaT!lAHKli nOAlTl''li (~AEnEtE Ta aovapta OlKOVO~lKlie; nOAltlK~e; ~E
Ta unoDEiy~aT!l ISILM Kal Mundell-Fleming aTa KE'I'UAma 10, 15 Kat 16), nlTptnovrae;
KaAuT p ~ otaxEipla~ TTle; OlKovo~iae; Kal ~lKpOTEpEe; KUKAlKte; DlaJ(ll~aVaEle;. EnutAEOV,
OEV XPElOSOV1Ul U\jIT\Ao. a\)vaUay~ut\Kn alIo9t~ota 'YlU ano<pu'Y~ lWV 1tmtOOaEwv nov
1(apoOlKOOv EAAEl~llaTmv, ta onoia ano8tllara, anwe; ExEl KaT' 1tavtiA~'I'~ 1[la~~aVeE~
txouv Yla Tle; ~lKpEe; XeDPEe; ~gyUAO D~~oaLOvO~lK6 KoaTOe; (~AtnET aXEHKU T~V 'I'ap~o
y~ 15 .1 "To "'~~oaLOvo~IKa K6aTOe; T~e; AopavonOl~aEme;").
I~~aVT lKOt'pO, 6~me; , [Vat Otl 01 1tOVOUaEle; ~iae; xOOpae; DOV 1(pLOpii;oVTat ana H e;
avrnapKElc; GE KanOla 'l'ua~ t~e; avamuSEOOe; T~<; 'YXWple; anOT(l~LEtiaEle;. 'Onme; aVaAu8~KE GT~V ovOt~Ta 2.5 "H TClUTOTTlTa AnOTa~lE1lamV - Enovouamv", TO EAAl~~a TOU
tcro~uy[OU lpExouarov auvoAAaymv ElVOl taOOUVollO IlE IT]V aVlcr61T]la YXciJpw anotO#i
f:Vfff] < :'fXdJPlf:t; 1rGVo-vueu;
CA<Oc>S<1.
TWV napaYWY 1KWV nopwv ~["S XWpaS Kat

Ana ~[a avanT uaao~ev~ xwpa oev EX! ns anoTa~lu
a!s yw va xp~~aTOooTija! " S enevoualS HIS. Ta ou;Svij ,ncvounKa K'q>aAma T~S oi
vouv tll.V EUKUt.plU va B1tEVOUOEl 'YlU to J.LEMOV XooP\!; Ol KCLtOlKO{ tll~ va. crtEP1l8ouv l)
1tPIlE7pa ato 7tClp6v.
o aVtiAoyo~ KIVEltat Of: bUD KatEUeuvcrEl~. H rrpciYrTJ EXEl va Kava ~E ta KiVlltpa,
t6ao Of: E1IlrtEOO xffipa<; ocro Kat or E1tim:oo OIKOVOlltKWV 1[apay6vt(()V-Ej'[IXElp~crE(()V,
01 ,nevoUa!s XPWii;OV!(ll yla
T~V aSlOnO[~a~
T~V OlKOVO~lK~ avamus~ 't'TjS.
tpa1tEs6lv Kat VOlKOKUpIWV.
LUYKeKpl~tva,
a' oav!o~o cvSappuvl tva V01KOKUP10 va oana

AlyOtEPO, Kat lOU 1tltP81tEl 110. Ka.nolo XPOVIKO Ol
UGT'lJ.la va oanavu lIeplaOOTtpO ano TO elGOo ~J.lU TOU (cvoT~Tes 7. 3 Kal 7.4), ETOI Km ~
lIpoapaa~
ol9vij oavelGJ.lo, J.lia ~OpCjl~ elopawv OlESVWV '"EvounKwv KECjlaJ..a(wv, cv
8appUV1 Kat EmtpbIEl Of: )lia xmpa va ounavci 1tSptcrcrOtE:po urro to EHJObfH.l.cl tl1~ Kat va
XEl EUc(J.lJ.laTU aTO laot;uY10 TPEXOuowv auvaUaywv. Ta ,U' [J.lJ.lma, o~w<;' ausavouv
TO ESWTeplKO XPEOS TIlS xwpas Ka~ oTav avanO<pevKTU EASEl ~ wpa T~S M~PWJ.lijS, ~ 01
opSwo~, uno T~ J.lOp<pij UlIOnJ.lijoEws Kal U<PEOEWS, Sa Eivat ~,yaAuTEp~ (PAElIETE T~V E
VOT~TU 2.4 "Eni~~aTa Tau ]aot;uy[ou Tpexouowv LuvaUaywv").
f,a ElIlx!pijaeu; Kat Tpanet;es, Ka" 0' J.lIKPOTCPO paSJ.lO, Yla VOlKOKUp,a, ~ npoapa
a~ a' s tva KEq>aAata J.lnop' [ va OO~yijOl aE unEppOA1KO oaVla~o, Kat o~ aE SEva VO~t
o~a (pAnETE T~V ECjlawoyij 16.1 ""'av!o~OS aE 3 tvo NOJ.l,a~a"). Kat TU Mo ausavouv
TO EUU),WTO TOUS
~ia UlIoT[~~a~ TOU vOJ.liaJ.laTOS T~S xwpas. AKoJ.l~ XlpoTepa, ausu
vouv Tllv lIlSaVOT~Tn ouvaUaYJ.la"K~S Kat Tpan't;lK~ S Kpio,ws (pAtnerE Tllv ev6T~Ta
OlIWS
~ npoapaa~
vel ITEPLOcrOtEPO Kat va anOtUJ.LlEucra
a'
a,
17.4 KatUltEpCO), OnOtE
eO. u1toatouv ~l)'6.AO KOcrtO<; aK0I111
napaaupS'i aE UlI'pPOAIKO
H OEliTEP~ KaTEliSuvo~
Kat aU!Ol Ol onolO{ DEY EiXav
oave",~o ~
OCV EiXav OaVElOTEl KaSoAou.

aXETU;ETa! ~E T~V ouVaToT~Ta !WV Apxwv va aSlOnolOuv Tn
OE'ttKO toW Olt6vcOv E1lEYOutlKcOV Ktq>UAUlWV, I1tlcOVOVTU~ nupillrfAC1 ta apvlltLKO. flpo~

tOUtO , ea I1nopouaav va 1t1paUouv nptopta,.lOu~ OtllV KiVllti11 !OJV tbW)ttKOOV KcpuAat
wv Kat va E1tl!pSnOUV !OV swtep LKO bUVelO).lO ).lOVO OE KUPPVlltlKOlJ~ opyavlaI10U~.
000 anA~ Km va <paiveTa! aurij ~ ),Ua~, OCV eival KaSOAOU EliKOA~. ITpolinOSTEl 0"
01 KUPepv~nKoi napUYOVTES Sa EXouv TtS yvwaEU;, Tn Kiv~Tpa Kat TIlv 'UEAu;ia va ano
<paait;ouv y,a Tn oxer'KU SEJ.laTa ans auvEXwS fleTUPano~cvcs auvS~K'S a"s o18SveiS
xp~~aTnyopEs. ITpoOnoSETe~ 'nia~s, on OCV Sa UnOKU\]fOUV OTOV nE!pao~o va W<P'A~
SOllV 01 (OlOl, l~ papo~ tOU KOlVWVIKOU aUVOAOU, Kue6n, 6nco~ UVaAUttUt OtllV nO).lvrt
EYOtlltU, 01 <ruVillUYl1atIKOi nEplOptal10t EK!pS!pOUV HI DlO.cp80pu.
AUa
a~~aVnKtl KOOT~ T~S
AuaEWS aUTijs Eiva! 01 OTPEPAWOElS ans ano<pUOElS TWV
OIKOVO).llKcDV nupayovtwv, aHlv npoana8eta !OU~ va. Ilu:oaouv to KOa!O ~ tWV 1[ptOpt
a).lc:Ov, to KOlVOOVIKU a01KO, Ku96tl 01 I1tyciA~ E1t1XElp~m:u; Kat Ot \)1[OPOl J.l.1l0POUv va
st1tpVOUV tOU~ 6notOU~ npIOplaI10U~ axetlKU UKOAa, Kat Ot Kata Kavova allpopA.Ellte~
napCVEpYEU;S TWV nE plOpta~wv. Mia aiae~a~ TOU J.lcytSouS TWV OTpEpAwa,wv npoKUmEt
ana T~V aVtlAUa~ aT~v CVOT~TU 17.3.
nEPIIIOTEPEl EnENIlYTtKEr EnIAOrEE. ITepLOooTCpES 1ICVOUnKS 1ItAOYEs auv'nu
YOVTm J.lCYaAUTEp~ ev~flEpia y,a TOUS EncvouTES Kal ~,yaAuTEpa KEpo~ yw ns ERlXElpij
aEtS 01 J.lCV EnCVOUTts ~lIOpOUV a ElIlTUxaUV U\]f~A6TEPES alIo86aElS y,a KUS, ElIilI'OO
KIVOUVOU, a, OE enlXElpijaelS J.lnopoUv va , neKTaSouv aE I1Ues xwpes, aSlonOlwVTUS Ta
UVTuycovlatlKa 1[AEOVEKttl).latD. tOU~.
Ev aUVTo~ia, ~[a xwpa ~lIOP E i va ~ETU'I'EPEI E"'OO~~aTn alIO TO lIapov aTO ~EnOV ij
ano TO J.lEnOV aTO napov, otaa<paAit;ovTnS tva aXEnKtl aTaSEpo o,aXPov'Ka EninEoo Ka
TaVaAWOews Ka, UA'K~S EU~J.lepias. H AOYIKij eiva! avaAOY~ aUTijs "fla tva VOlKOKUPIO
ons CVOTllTES 7.3 Km 7.4.
88wpEiaTE, ym napUOEty~a, ~ia xwpa J.lE y~ptioKaVTa nA~Suo~O, onws ~ ]anwvia. H
[anwvia oev XEt apKETi:s 1ICVOUTlKS EUKatp iES y,a va aSlOnOl~oc, oAes n s anOmJ.llEli
~ElS TllS f,' aUTO, esaUou, eXE! olapKTt n),ovuaJ.laTa TOU taot;uyiou TPcxouawv OUVaA
Aaywv: CA > 0 <=> S > J.
To. nAeOVaa).lo.to. tOU taosuy(ou tpXouooov auvaUayoov 1[EVOUOVtUl
ano
IanwvlKs~
ERlXE!pijOEl, Kat 1ICVO UTS OE lIapaywY'KS ~ovuoes, OE OJ.lOAoya Ka! J.leTOxi:s xwpwv 01
:Ayyd..Ot; A,.
Avt~OUA.aiO~
!:XOAIc( XC(I ErwJ1jflcivcrEI'; MOwv EtmeocrliEXTc(,
KU~UJ'JnOlC XQr1fJeugYOPEC & MlXDOOlXO'JQUlg - KI,flct:Aet: tO 17
onol<; xOUV KaAUtP<; npOOntt1<E<; OV07t'[U~Ul<; 1<0t, 00<; K tOut au, u1t6axovtut mVT1AOl
pES alloMaElS A1l0 to ,aooa aun;'v TWV EllEVOUaEWV ~ xwpa 8a ~lloptaEt Va olaT~p~aEl
TO plonKO EllirrEOO TWV KawiKWV T~S OTav ~Elw8Ei TO Elaoo~~u T~S AOyw wu y~paa~t
YOU llA~8ua~ou. T6TE, ~ xwpa 8a tXEt tUEl~~a aTO E~1l0PlKO lao!;uylO TO olloio 8a Ka
AumEt ~E llAEovua~aTa aTO lao!;uylO ElaOO~~uTWV. Euv OE EXEl tU,,~~a aTO lao!;UylO
tpEXOuawv auvaUoywv, t1lttol) 80 OO1tovo. 1ttplaaon:po 0.1(0 to l<JOOTUlO: t'1<;' 80. to 1<0
AU1ttEl an01lUlAI)O"tl<; tWV 1lpIOUmaKow atOlXElUlV tll <; ato E~WtEP IKO, 0'1Ao.OI) U1tO EtapO
E<; '1tVOUtlKcllV KEq:>o.A.aLooV.
ElEwpEia", Twpa, ~ia xwpa ~E vto llA~8ua~0. MllopEi va oaVEtcrTEi a~~Epa

tcroouva).lo tou CA < 0, Yla va o~~lOupy~aEl T~V llapaywYlK~ U1l000~~ ~ ollo(a 8a T~S E
lllTpt'l'El va allaaxoA~aElllapaywYlKa toy au~avo~EVo llA~Sua~o. ME Ta ElaOO~llato to
olloia Sa O~).llOUpy~SOUv (ltO Ilillov a1l0 t~V a~lOllo l~(l~ autwv HOV E1lEVOU(lEWV, Sa tx"
'j(Aeovuaj.luta <ITO lao~uylO tpqouO"rov <rUvuA.1aywv to. o1toia 9a ononA.'1pwcrouv to aua
aWpEU).lEvO
E~WHPlKO
;(ptoS.
Ta OlESV~ EllEVOUnKU KE'l'aAOla O~).llOupyouv KaAuHpa Kiv~Tpa
ns TPo'llE!;ES KOl ns ApXtS, aU).lpaUOVTas aT~ o~~lOupyla ~las llE
KMYTEPA KINHTPA .
Yla n s
ElllXElp~aElS,
plaaotpo avrayrovlatlKT1<; OlKOVOj.lla<;.

Kat' upxl)v, J-LEtrovOVtUt ta atpEpM KlvIltpa ta O1toia unapxouv crt tva Kat01[lEaj.lE
CPAtru:H T~V EVO~to 4.4. " Elm~lK6 m..alalO KOl

EllLToKla"). Ol TpallE!;ES KIll Ol ElllXElpi]aEl<;, ~E TO va ~~v ~1l0pOUV va a1l0
Aa~pavouv T~V llpOVO~laKij ~EtoXElpla~ cmo ns KUpEpv~a"s, AEltoUpyouv llEplaaOHpO
allOTEAEa).lanKU. ElllllAtov, O~~lOUpyouvtol Klv~Tpa Yla EllEVOUaElS Kat llapaYWYlKtS
opaaT~plOT~HS Kat aTOUS OlKOVO~lKOU<; rrapuYOVHS Ol orCOiOl OEV txouv llpOvO).llaKij ~E
vo
xp~~awolKovO~lKO auaT~).la
ITpay~anKo'
toXEipla~.
ITEpaLTtpw, ).lElWVETal
ola'l'80pu Tllv olloia EKTpt'l'OUV
OlllEPlOp"').lO~
KaSws Kal
to aUY1<pltlKCt J.lyaAulEpo K6ato<; trov 'j(EpIOptaj.lcllV an<; acr9VtcrtEPE<; OlKOVOj.l1KE<; 1:0.

~El<;.
'OAa OE
au~panouv aT~V KOlVWVlK~ yaAijv~, allapaiT~T~ llpoiill08m~
Kat EU~).lEP ia.

fla ns E1llXElp1iaEl<;, ElllllAtov, AELToupyEl
Yla OlKOVO
).ll~ aVallTU~~
~ AEyO).lEV~
(<1lElSapxia
T~S
ayopu9l. Ev
auvto~lia, 01 EnevoUtEs, Kat 0'1 Ot l;tvot, 01 onOlOt x.ouv Ko.A.UtEP'1 tqvOYVUlcria, 1lUlAOUV
ns IlETOXtS TWV EtatPEtWV Ol 01l0iES OEY txouv lKavOllOl~nK~ KEpoO'l'opia. H llPOKllAOU

).lEV~ llTWa~ T~<; HIli]<; T~S flEtOXij<;, O~).llOUPYEi llim~ an<; olOl~a"s TWV EtolPElWV Yla
alloH4a).lanKOHp~ AElToupyia.
o aVTLAoyoS EOW tYKELTal aTO on, aKo~~ Kal aE aVE1!TuY~EvES XWPE<;, ~ 1tElSapxia
T~<; ayopas OEV EivOl Toao laxup~ WaH va EivOl arcoHAm).lanKij. gapTaTOl, ElliOl]S,
a1t6 trtv 1t010tllta tOU 8Eaj.llKOU 1lA.atatou Kat tllV 1tOtOtrtta Eq>ap~JOyit<; tUlV VOj.lwv-OUO
avtlKElj.lEVa to. onola OEV avl)Kouv crta lax.upa x.apaKtTtPlcrttKo. tWV 1tEP10"0"0ttpwv
pciw. avantuaao).ltvwv Ka1 aVE1ttuyj.lEvWV.
x.w
EmT~pl]al]
TWV
'Oaov a'l'opu ans KUpEpvijaElS, HAWVtoS OUataanKa U1l0 Tl] olapKij
ayopffiv, avuYKal;ovtOl va aaKouv 1tEplaa6tEpO aUVE1ttl OlKOVO,U1Kll 1tOAlnKyt. Eav bEY
TOV Kavouv, Ol pot<; KE'l'oAaiwv 8a ns n).lwpijoouv (PAt1CEtE aXEtlKci. T~V EV6T~Ta 14.5
" lao!;UylO Xpl]flatoOlKOvolllKWV l:uvaUaywv - E1ll0PUOE1S" Kat to tv8Eto 15.2 "l:Ta8E
pES 100nflis Kal IT,,8apxia tl]S OlKOVOlll~<; ITOALTLKijS" ) H aJIOTprnnK~ "'XU<; TOOV E
KPOOOV avabUCvUEtUl ano lllv buvat6trtta lOU<; va 1tpOKo.AEaouv cruvaAAaYj.latlK~ Kal
tpa1tESIKT1 Kpia'1 j.lE ~yCtAO KOlV())Vl1<O, OtKoVOj.ltKO KOl1tOAltlXO Koato<;.
Em1CAtov, Ta olE8vi] E1CEVounKu KE'l'ci.AOla ElllPUUOUV ).lEYOAUTEpl] llEl8apxia ans

KUpEpvijaElS Kal ~ElWVOUV T~V Efl~ovi] Tau<; aE ).l~ EVOEOElYIlEvES 1tOAlTlKts EiTE AOyW a
opavEias ciTE AOYw toU 'l'O~OU 1l0AlTlKOU KOOtoUS. To Ev8Eto 16.3 "George Soras Kat l]
Kpi"'l t~<; l:TEpAivaS toy l:E1Cttfl~PlO 1992" TO mot01tOlEi.
o aVTiAOYOS EivOl on aE opla~EvES llEplmWa"s, 6rrWS aE OlOTapaxt<; a1l0 T~ OlE8vij
OlKovo~la Kal ns OlE8VEi<; ;(pl]~aTayopt<;, laws Eival KOAuTEpa va txouv Ol ApXt<; K<i.1l01O
llEPl8wplO EUEAl~(as ~E Tl] xpija~ auvaUay).lanKWV llEPlOpta).lWV CPAtllETE Tl]V EVoT~Ta
16.2 "MlKpij Xwpa - EllEnaa"s"). Xap(lJct~planKII, aTT]v 1CEpiooo TOU Kav6va toU
Xpuaou CEVOt~TO 13.6), TO papa<; tT]S 1CpOoap~Oyijs Yla Ta EUEillllam taU looi;uyiou
KU~G:e\l'nQe:tC
Xon ucl"w:YOOE:C & MtxooQtxQYOUtCX
Ksq>&:A.cuO 17
tpeXOuO"mv O"uVaA.Aaymv E11:,!ne O"tl~ aO"ae:vEO"tf:p~ KOlVWVIKE~ taSeH; )lEo"CO t11 ~ )lelmO"e
ms t mv ~l,,9wv Klll HIS anaoxoAi)Gms.
T'lv avUA.uOTh Kat tU; aXet1KE<; a11:0qlaat~ otKOVO~lta1<; 1tOA.ltlK~<;. 11:ept1t).:Ke l to on
ot nplOplG~Oi G tGPots ~1l0pOUV va KA~Cjl90uv 8nKit, evw G KpOtS apv~nKit. :Eu
YKKpl~tva, Ot nplOpw~O[ O tOPOS ~nopouv va KA~ Cjl90uv ms ~OpCjli) GUVteUS nOAt
nKi)s (prudential regu lation). E1I<nAOV, ev9ap puvouv Klll t~V aV(l1lru1;~ tmV 'Yxmpimv
xp~~aTllYopwv Ol ono[s, ~ t~ Olpit TOUS, GU~Pillouv GT~V OIKOVO~lKi) avitnTu1;~.
AnD T~V aU~ 1l4upa, Ot nplopw~oi G Kp OtS ~nop i va KA~Cjl90uv ms tvoet1;~ on Ot
ApXtS oev ivat npoo~Am~tvs G OUVeti) OtKOVO~lKi) nOAlTlKi) Kal Xp~ot~01l0l0UV TOUS
nptOplG~OUS yta va KpOiGOUV Xpovo.
1>.MErEr ::::ENEr EnENIIYrEIr. n Atov Tmv llpoava'Pp9tvTlV, ~ GU~POAi) Tmv ou:9vwv
1lVOUnKWv KCjlllAaimv OT~V OtKOVO~lKi) ava1tTu1;~ n ptAa~pavl Kat anous napityo
V1S Ava~wit teUS 1;xmpU;ouv ~ 9nKi) GU~POAi) Tmv it~wmv 1;tvmv 1tevOUGemv Kat ~
~yaAti1p~ npoGCjlOpa xp~~aToooTi)Gm s Kal te auv aUTi) xa~~MTI':po KOGTOS.
Ot U~WS 1;tvs 1tVOUOtS au~PaAAOUV llotKtAOTPOllooS G~V avanTU1;~ : Etoayouv
G ~ia xwpa TXVOyvooGla, OlOlK~nKS tKllVOT~TS Kal o19vi) O[nua olavo~i) s npOfOvTmv.
TOtOU10tp6nwe;, t11<; mtprnouv va a~t011:Ol~al a11:otA.O" )latlKOU;pa tOUe; napaywYIKmJ ~
nopou ~ Kat to. O"UYKPltlKU n).eOVeKt~)lata tll<;. Kat va K1l:atbual to av8pmrtlvo buva~l.l
KO T~S.
XPHMATOlIOTHrH ErxoPloN OIKONOMIKON nAPArONTnN. 'Ooov aCjlopa GT~V wyaAu
TEP~ llpoGCjlopa Kal TO xa~~ MT Ep o KOGTOe; xp~~ateOoTi)oEOOS, OOTlYEi OE llEplGGOTEpEe;
snVbUO'Sl~ an6 talpsise;. Au~6.vst, 1l:(<JT]~ Kat tOY bavsIO")lO TOW vOlKOKUpmv Kal KUPp
Vi)crEooV. BArnET crXEnKit n e; evoT~Te; 4 .3 KaT 4.4 .
Ynapxouv, o~ooe;, cropapa Ouv~TtK(i npopAi)~aTll. AK6~~ KalaV 0 oaVETG~Oe; OEV Ei
Vat Ull EPPOAtKoe;, Ot GUV8i)KES Gne; OlE9vEie; xp ~~aTllYop s ~nopEi va oo~yi)GOUV GE E1;ap
O"ae; Kat mpO"Le; tCOV pomv tWV e1tSVbUtlK<lW Ks<paA.a{wv KUL, )lO"W autmv, 0" sScip al~
Kal UCjlOtc; T% ola9wl~OTTjTlle; xpTj~ateOoTi)crme;. Ta oXeTlKa OtAi)~~aTll, Ta O1loia ava
OEIMovtal <ITO Ev9EtO 17.3, ivai av6.A.oya nov mOtCOtlKWV KUKA.WV (P).11:tS e:vOT11ta
II.?? ). M<iA.1O"ta, 01 tv A.6yw E~QPO"Sle; Kat U<po"Etc; )lnop Ei va ivat 01 Ult{~ tWV rtlOtWtl
KWV KUKACOV.
'Eva aXStlKO 8)la SivUl 6n Yla va aslOnO\1190uv napaycoytKU to. sEva KSqlo).ata, Kat
va a1l:oqlsux8ouv 0 \)1l:ep-oavslo~6c; Kat ot UitSP-S11:EVOUaeU;, XPSUlS0vtUl t Sxvoyvwo(a Kat
U11:0(0)l<;, 8S0)ltK~ Kat OlKOVO)llK~, nou O"UV1;SW<; bEY uno:PXouv O"n~ 1l:eptoO"OtEP S~ ava
1tTucrGO~evEe; XWpEe;. :EUYKEKpl~tva, XPElitt;OVTlll opyavOl~tva Kat KaAa AlTOUPYOUVTll
XP11)lanO'-rtlPla, mO"tE va )lSlmVOVtal to. KOOT11 ouvaAA.aywv KOl to aoc.p6.A.lOTPO PEUOtOtll
Tlle;. A1;l61l1GlOl xpTj~aTOOlKoVO~tKOi avaAuTte; ylll va po~90uv TOUe; 1;tvoue; nevoUTe;
OT~V EntAoy~ Tmv ~10XWV Kal o~oAoymv. :E1ll9EPO ~aKpOOtKOVO~lK6 nEptpaAAOV TO a
noia va ~~v an09appuVEt ne; llapaymytKte; EnevouOEtc;. KaAo 9W~lKO nEplpaUov Kat
npoO"tao[a t11<; tblOKt11a iw;, WOte va )lSlmVOV10l 01 KivoUVOl tWV ~vcov E1l:VbUTOOV ano tll
olll'P90p6. Klll n e; anaTEe;.
"Eva aAAO 00pap6 llpOpA~~a Eival on Ol pote; TooV OlE9vwv EnVOUTlKWV KECjlaAaimv
oev iVatnUVTOTE npoe; T~V KllT1i8UVG~ T~V anoia npopAt nEl ~ 9Empia. :EE nOAA'S nEpl1ttmO"tc;, avtt to. K<paAala an6 n; avsn"ruy)ltvs<; xwpe; va PODV npo<; tU; avantUaao~E
Vee;, yta va eK~1:aAA<u90uv u e; Ki unaPXOUOEe; ~'YaAuTpe; rnVOUTlKte; uKalpiec;, pt
ouv npoe; T~V aVTi9ET~ KaTEu9uv"" (pAtn1: 1ll tvSETll 14 .10 "]Got;UYlO Xp~~aToolKoVO'
~lKWV :Euvanaywv Kal]Gon~ie;", Ka t 16.1 ":EuvaUay~aTlKWV An09 E~uTmv Tll napaoo
1;a"). To np6pA~~a aUl6, lOllliTEpa tvTOVO Tll TA<UTll[a xp6vla, anOT EMi tOxupi) tvOEl1;~
~eyciA.WV aVlaoppomoov as naYK6o~\O rni1l:Eoo.
'Ev8HO 17.2. To CA < II TWV H.n.A. - Kivouvo
la T v na Koa 10 OTKOVO ia;
+ II5IWTlK~ KG! KUI3EPVI)TIK~ aTToTO~i.Ual)
To thAEljJjJO IJ loC; xwpa<; TTAE6voojJo KOTT01WV dAAwv:
~ 6XI Konwopfa dAAwv
-+ A(t0ll 6X1 jJovojJp~r;:
To rdruraio np6pATU.1a taTtYltat on OE OptOJ..1Ev; np1.1rrWOEte; lOWe; Eivul KUA1.>tEPU vu

unupxouv nEplOptOj..1oi OtTtv EKpOr, KEq:>UAUiwv. M aUTOUe;, at anOtaj..1lUOELe; napUj..1EVOUV
lH~ xwpa WI POllSoiJv crt~V avamu~~ KUL r~ pEucrr6r~ra H"V EYXWPLWV xp~~arayopwv.
Aur6 ELVat nOAD cr~~avnKo yca XWPES 6nou, Myw r ou rapay~tvou nOAmKoiJ Piou, 01 E
XOVtES anom~llicrELS npon~oiJv r~v acr'l'aAEla crE aVEnruwtvES XWPES (EKpOES) ana ns
u\"~AOtEPES ava~evo ~evES anoii6crElS crr~ xwpa.
ApVIlTIKO.
To. bl!hni ERevbunKa KE<paAma E1(lbElKWOUV E~apcrEIS KUL U'I'tcrElS, b ~Aab ~ , ~EYaAES
Elapots Kat EKPOEs, 0\ onoLES buaXEpaivouv r~v aaK~cr~ t~s OIKOVO ~lKijS nOAlTlKils Kat
He; un:oq:>acrEle; 6AWV t WV otKOVOj..1tKWV nupuyovrwv, Kal KaStcrtOuV 6AC; tle; XWPEC;. j..1LKp Ee;
Kat ~EYaAES, WaAWtES a E KpLcrEIS. l:uXVa OE, Ol ev Myw E~ap crElS Kat U'l'tcrEIS oev aXETi
1;ovral W m SE~EA1Wb~ O IKOVO~IKa ~EYE8~ ~Las xwpas-pAtnEtE crXEnKa r~ au1;ilr~cr~
crr~v Evor~m 14.5 "Icro1;iJylO Xp~~aroolKOVO~lI(WV l:uvaUaywv - Emopal"'S", Kal o~
r~v evor~m crXEnKa ~E r~ ~ETaoocr~ mv apv~nKwv xp ~~aroo\Kovo~lKWV E~E)'iSEWV ana
r~ ~ia xwpa crr~v aM~ (contagion).
Ev auvro~ia , 01 wyaAES Ela poES o~~ loupyoiJv aVlaopponiEs Ol 01[OiES, ""v~SCDS, Ka
raAijyouv aE Esiaou ~EyaMS EKpOES Kat KpicrTl' y1[Ep-OaVEla~o , orav OlOXEtEuovral crt~V
OlKOvoj..1ia j..1toc.u tau t pUnl;lKOU OUOT~j..1aTOC;. Un:EP~En:ev5uaElC; Kat ~Oi)(JKEe;, OTUV 5 LO~
XEtEUOvrUL
~taw
TIl, ayopa,
O~OAOyWV
Kat tOU
xp ll~ancrt~p iou
KUL
r~,
ayopa, aKlvil-
T(1)V.
Kat ta t ptU, ollAa8~ , u n Ep~8avtoj..10e;, un:Ep~ Em:vouoEIC; KUl CPOUOKC;, an oTEAouv

npOaYYEAO OlKOVO~lKWV OEWWV. Eivat, Enicr~s, cru~nr w ~ara aVanOtEAEcr~anKijs xpilaEw,
rCDv OIESVWV EnevounKwv KE'I'a).aiwv, ELtE Myw EMEi'l'ECDS r~, anapaLr~r~s xp~~atOOl
KOVO~lKijS unooo~TJS EitE Myw rou ~EYaAOU OYKOU rCDv Elapowv.
8ECDpicrt TO aK6AOU So OEvaplO, to onolo ).16vo 9CDPlltlK6 OEV dvm. 'EXEl KtUAl~
XSEL aE nOMES XWPEt;, HIS EU6.8os ""~nEptAa~pavo~tv~s (PAt1[ETE to tvSuo 17.3 KatW
r Epw).
Oo~yo r~, aVaAiJaEw, anO'tEMi to axil~a 17 .1. Elvat criJvSEa~ tOU axil~aro, 12.?,
to anoia rrEplyp6.(j>El T11 OUVUlll1<Tt T(1)V EVOOYEVWV mOTWTIK<i)V I(l)KA.c.uV, Kat tOU oXitllUtOC;
14.2, to onoio nEplypa'l'EI n , tnlbpacrElS Eni rou lcrol;uyiou xp~~awOlKovo ~IKWV ""va).
).aywv. 0 1VEES EmopacrEl, Ema~~aivovrat ~E olaKEKo~~tva P E)'~ .
To OTt).1tO KKtvitcrEWC; Eivat TJ E~ap oll tCDV lcrpowv OLES VWV EnvouHKWV Kq:>aAu(~
WV, 11 apx~ v0C; EPYOOlKOU KUKAOU 0 onoloe; Su unotpOmuoEl O cpauAo otav Ol pot.:;
otUj..1atitoouv Kat crtll (JUvtXEIU uvaotpuq:>OUv. H tsapoTt ~.17tOp E( va lVUl an:OttAEO).1a tCDV
auvS~KwV
~anov
ans olESvEiS xp~~atayopES, rLS onoiES OEV ~n opoiJv va En~pEaaouv, nocr w OE

va EAEYSOUV, 0\ Apxts r~ s xwpas, ~ EmruXTJS E'I'ap~oyil EVOS npoypa~~aws ata
9Eponol~O'EwC; , 11 onola ).1ELWVEl to OO<puAlOlpa KIVOUVOU Kat PUOtcYrlltae;, it O1tOlOOOft
notE aUos AOyOS a1[O toU, ava).uo~evous atO axil~a 14 .2.

H t~upO'Tt HOV EIOPOWV, KClI TO t~ uurfte; rrpOKUAOU j..1EVO rrAEovaollu tau lool;uyiou
n).~pw~wv ,
eFt =:0 BP > a

OlWIOUpyEi tva croPapo o[).~~~a crns APXES: Eav OEY avnopacrouv, So. ""tASEI ovo~acrn
tal
avatillTJO'Tt tOU vOj..1iO').1ato c; 11
onoia Sa EnllPEUO'El apVTJtlK6. tllV aVtaYCDvIOltKOTTjta
rwv npo16vrCDv r~s xwpas. H Erriopo.cr~ auril napicrtatal ~E ro PE).0S W apIS~o 1 ( 1 ).

Eav Ol APXES avnopacrouv, npOKEI~tvou va ano'l'SUx8Ei ~ avarL~~~, unapXEI 0 Kiv
buvoS o~ ~loupY Las evos anocrmSEpOnOl~llKoiJ KUKAOU ~E crrolXEia nEplaaOtEpES Clapots,
U1tEP-at0l6oo~C; npooboKiEC;. mot(OtlKo KUKAO KUl tpoiJoK(l OtO xp llj..1a!lOt~plO Kat
O''tTlV ayopa. UKlVtltCDV. M7tp6e; YKpj..16~ Kat nloc.u pt j..1Q !
.,
KuBEOvha E!C Xon uc(locyooec &
M lKQOot IWVOj,ltC( -
KEtpci:MxtO 17
rxfUJa 17.1 . .6IE8y~ ETTEYOUTIKa KEcpdAaro - ATTOO"T08EPOTTOIr}TIKO<; KuKJ"m;

n p0060Ki<; , nI01WlIK6<;: KuKAo<;. <])ouo':;<; & AV100PPOTTlE<;:
El crpo t ~ , YTT E p-olaI 66o~E<;
r- AEfl - Y .
la'tTlKliKomvaMv07l - c
II
JJr r I
. cvo LiwfJi:OIpo -
7 ---- AV1;:::',pa _ E YD
A{ic{imo",ra - UNC
ElftTOKIO -
Q rpAe/a ~ ~PK
.-----'
L
';lae'Ol~onl'
. a ';av\lOY
n;'ooro;- W
A'II'O' IC, Ao,r,,><, - G
KamD, -
r.
Ym:ppillOHa
AnoOtpara -INVx
Kh'lltpoYUl
Altota).liwcrTl
~Valio>:l' - /r
AVIlI"vO!,E>71
AIOOtOl!,D
EIQ6ij'IPG - YD
.
npocr60KIE<;:
0'~~:
'P'
i ' OYWytc-X.
AKIV~'WV,
" o~o'Ahywv
,..
r t .
p("'~'\<.>--
Ekcr).lIKO
nJl.a.lmo
E~'OPIKWV
EXtIKO Kocrrot;
npoIo Vt"OlV TllS Xwpat;
E;r:lT(iKIO - i
r
DpaypaTlK'j l(JoTlpia - R
Ttf.1C~.
...
OvopcurrlK'l
!(JoT/pia
=:YO ~
D).'18wpt(JfJOr;
Mtox
t wv
En:roplO<; ....
flAlf8wpl(JfJor;
I
I
~ - - : ==
=--IuO(Vy IO Xp'1WJ:rO!Kc1:JV Lvvallaywl':
- CF
+ t
1 _____ _ -
npoOOoK[~
6
A.V1~O'JA.tit"O<;
I
1
:A.yyeAoc; A.
IEIOOYWY,, -IM-:>
OopaywY'i
E,aipwv Yf
r __ _
TIII{;t; MCtOXOlV,
.
I:U v6 ~ Kt;
one; Il ISyde;
p~~otaYDP'l
L - OIKOVO)ltK1l n OA.It"lK~
MUKpOO1KOV0J1 IKD; .... __ _ __ _ _____ _ _
n i."Owp/(JI1(x; - P
Contagion
.... - .
10
A yuroppo1ticS
!:XOA(()( )()(( smcr1Jf!ocvcrsu; A()(OWV W1tQocrOS)('t()(,
Ku~WVnaSlC XQI'If-lgIgY9gSC & l\llxDoolxovolJlC(
Kzt.pliMXlO 17
I:UYKKpl~tva, Ol APXt, txouv liuo mAoye,: napt~paaTj OTTjV ayopa auvaUawa

tOc; 11 uyopa ~tvou VOI.liO'Il0tOC; Kat llimaT} tmv yx'oopioov 1lltOKicov.
I\oyw lOU ~"1'aAOU IiUVTjtlKOU 0YKOU TWV "apowv, Tj np~ 1(IAOYit evX! ~ "1'aAo
IiTj~OOlOVO~tKO KOOTOe;: Qt "apotc;, Kat TO ~ aUTwv llAovaa~a WU 100suylou nATjpw
~wv, ausavouv m auvaUay~atlKa arroSt~am TTj, xwp",. Ta <CAcuTala xouv alWaVtlKO
IiTj~OOlOVO~IKO KoaTO, (pArn,, TTjV cpap~oyit 15.1. "To t.Tj~OCHOVO~IK6 K6aw, TTj,
A Iipavollolitaw,").
H llPWT'1 mAarit evEX" lltnAtov Kat TOV Klvliuvo unp-liavta~ou a stvo v6~tO'~a.
Tov urrpliavlO~o evSapp6v" '1 llpoa80Kla on TO v6~la~a liev npOKWat va Ullotl~TjSl
aTO a~Oo ~tnov - 0 O'uvaUay~atlKO, Klvliuvoe; iVai ~IKpO, (pAtllT TTjV cpap~oyit
16.1 "t.avlO~o, a "tvo N6~to~a").
1\6yw TWV avwTtpw, '1 1i6TpTj 1ltAoyit apya it yp ityopa Sa cpap~oOTi. H ~iwa'1
TWV 1(lTOKlwv 08Tjyl a aUS'1oTj TWV 1lev860wv (ptAoe; ~ aptS~o 2) Kat rrt9avov T'1e;
KaTavaAwawe;. I:"lv au1;TjoTj TWV 1levliUawv Kat tile; KamVaAwO'we; O'u~paUt ICUl '1
~yaAu<cpTj Iita9Ol~OTTjTa liaviwv arro Tt<; Tp(ml;<; 01 olloie; txouv 1lpI00'6Tpa XPit
~aTU va liavciO'ouv AOYw twv tapowv (PEAO<; ~ aplS~6 3).
'01 tapot" ~tpo, TWV onoiwv KaTcu96vml ow xpTj~anO'Titplo, ausavouv tTj sitt'1
0'1 Yla ~"oxt,. H llpoKaAou~vTj avolio, TWV n~wv TWV ~TOXrov WtAO, 4) oliTjyi O 11
patttpw aUS'1aTj TTj<; KaTavaAwow" ~taw TOU rrAo(Hou Kat tTj, ~yaAuTpTj<; Iita9Ot~6
tTjta, liavciwv, Kat TWV 1lev86owv, ~taw T'1<; ~"1'aA6<cpTje; IitaSOl~6TTjTU<; liaviwv Kat
tTje; aVTAitO'we; cpSTjVOTPWV KcpaAalwv a1l0 10 xpTj~attotitptO.
Tte; lOpote; evtOXU! Kat '1 UKOAOtPTj rrpoapaOTj tWV O 1it9vit liavlo~o. Elvat
allott40~a t'1<; pAnotj~ev'1e; tKovae; tTje; xwpae;, AOYw tile; mta;t;6vawe; T'1e; OlKOVO~t
Kite; O:V01(tU~co<;, Kat t11 <; cruv Cll)tti 11IWcrCOC; HOV umpa?.iatpoov l(lVOUVOU Kat puatot11
tae; (peAo, 5).
TIpatTtpw wSTjO'Tj OTt<; tt~t, twv ~lOXrov, Kat ~taw autwv O'T'1V KawvaAwO'Tj Kal
tt, 1levliua!" liivt '1 WXUTPTj aVCl1ltuS'1: QIiTjyci a aUS'1O'Tj tWV Kpliwv tWV mX!Pit
awv (peA'1 ~ apt9~0 6). MaAtota, '1 avolio<; taU xpTj~atlO't'1plou llpoaAKU! 1[ptO'0'6
TP, !apot,.
Tov pYOlitKO aUTO KUKAO V\O'Xuouv Ol pAn06~eve; llPOO'IiOKu:e; tWV VOlKOKUptWV
WtAoe; 7) Kat tWV 1ltXtpitowv (pEAoe; 8), Ol orrol, oliTjYouv O llpatTtpw ai>1;TjO'Tj TTje;
KOtOvo?"watco<; Kal HOV trrEVOuatCOv.
o~w" 0 ev A6yw KUKAOe; IiIWloupy~ Kat IitaPKW, evtoxut, tle; auv9itK<; yta T'1V ~
mOTpocpit tOU O cpauAo KUKAO: evt"vo~v<; 1[ATj9wptO'ttKE, nltat<; a1l0 TTjV 1[Acupa T'1,
STjTitaw, Kal arrril4ta aVTaywvlatlKOTTjm, AOyW TOU 1[ATjSWPIO~OU , lilcupuvo~evo tA
At~~a tOU taosuylou TP)';OUO'wv ouvaUayrilv, U1[tW"PO, liavta~o, a stvo VO~IO~a,
cpoUO'K9' aTTjv ayopa aKtvittWv Kal ato xpTj~anO'tliptO, ~yaA, mocpaAt<; TWV Tpa
rrswv.
AvaAuttKo<cpa, '1 mxla ava1ltUS'1 Vtciv! tt, rrATj9wptOtlKe, mtat<; 1lJ[0 TTjV rrAcu
pa TTje; sTjtitaw, WEA'1 ~ ap19~6 9). '0 au1;avo~evoe; llATjSwpto~6e; ~!WVl tTjV avwyw
VlattKOtlltO t(UV rrpo'iovrrov tT}e; l6>PO<;, KOL at cruvSuocrl10 11 tT}V OU~T}all trov tlO"ayooyoov
A6yw T'1e; taxla<; avarr,6swe;, rrpoKaAllilcUpuvml lOU A41~~atoc; tOU toosuylou TP
xouawv ouvaAAaywv TTje; xwpae; (PtAoe; 10).
AVO~OPIKa 11 ne; CPOilcrK<; , Ol Slt9vtlC; trrEVOUt{:C;. 01 onoioL nEVououv ato XPll
~attaTitpl o Kat aTTjv ayopa Yit" auSavouv TTj sitTTjaTj. TTj sitT'1O'Tj llpatTtpw ausavouv
Kat Ol y):OOPIOl t1tEVOUtC; Ol onolOl, m':pav tlle; YEVlKtiC; UlO"lOOO~{ClC;, tXOUV Kat I1YUA:6t
P'1 1[p60'PaaTj a liav!O'~o Kat, auvrrril" neptOOOTpa 1[po<; 1ltvliuoTj xpit~aTa. H aUSTj
0'1 T'1<; STjTitaew, rrpoKaAl Kat aUSTja'1 tWV Tt~rov TWV aKlvitTwV.
'Ocrov Cl~Opa. atov KlVbuvO t1tlm:paAlwv tmv tpa1t~oov, at m:ploSoUC; IlyUA(Ov la
porilv ~tpo, tWV !apOVTWv KcpaAalwv Iilaxt"aI ~eO'w tOU tparrslKou ouotit~ato,. Au
to evX! tOv Klvliuvo ot tpallS, va ~Tjv Kavouv wAit avaAUaTj "Ie; mOToA'11[nKite; tKa
VOtlltat; HOV ClLtOUI1Vrov 06.VtlO 1UXIPitcrOOV Kat VOlKOKUpunv, 11 ClnOtEAtcrl1a va aU~T}
90uv ot 1llOcpa4u:e;. To TcAcumio au1;av! to cuaAWTo TWV xwpwv 6tav Sa tAS! '1 rilpa
'Tje; KpiaIJJ,: Ql apv'1ttKtc; 1[pOaooKU:, Kat Ol1lTWxua!, aUTjAo-,pocpolioTOUVTat.
AYYZAO"- A . .A v"[~ol)A(XIo<;
10
LXOAtC( XC(t emcr1]p.ocvcret\; Ac(OWV erlTCQocroeXtC(.
Ku~ oV'6QEtC XOnU<l1"<l~OOEC & MpsQootxovoy.ta
KEtpCtAalO 1 7
ME T~V napooo TOU Xp6vou ~EYaAWVOUV Ol ClVIaOpp01tlE<;, KaSlaTWvTU<; T~
xwpa u
aAWT~ aE EKpOE<;. To unAwTo au~avEl KIll ~ npoIoilaa avayvwpla~ on TO TEAO<; TOU EP
YOO IKOU KUKAOU KanOla anw~ Sa mEASEL, XWPl<; 01 APXE<; va ~nopoilv va a1tOTpE'VOUV
T~V E1tEPXO~EV~ Kpla~.
AUT~ ~ avayvwpla~ KIlSWTn T~
xwpa
o~~po TWV npoaOOKlWV TWV ayopwv: Mla ~E

Ta~OA~ TOU<; Sa oo~y~ aEI aE Kpia~ . H ~OV~ apepatOT~TIl ~ onoia UlIIiPXl iVIll nOTe Sa
e1tEASet aUT~ ~ ~eTapoA~.
KIlT' apx~v, AOY'" T~<; avooou TOU 1(A~SWpla~OI\ Kill TOU OlUpUVO~OU eAAei~~a
TO<; TOU l<JO!;uyiou TpEXOUaWv auvaUaywv, 01 OleSvi<; e1tEVOUT E<; 8a apXlaouv va O~~I
oupyoilv npoao oKiE<; Yla unOTi~~a~, W anoTEAea~a va aul;avovTal TIl EYxwpta e1tlTOKta.
avo8o~
TWV E1tltOKlWV EVEXEl tOY Kfvouvo va GnCto"El T] (poucrKa crtT]v ayopa aKlvrltWV
Kal aTO xp~~anaT~plo, W anoTAEa~a 01 EnEVOUT<; va !;~TOUV U'V~AOTepa aacpMlaTpa

KlVOUVOU ylIl va e1tEVOUaOUV an<; ouo aUTt<; ayopt<;.
Tux6v ~i(J}al1 T(i)V TlJ.l.cOv T(i)V OKIV ~t(i)V KUl t(J}V J.l.ETOXcOV eo J.l.Ei(i)VE Kat tTl 8toeEOt
~6T~TIl TWV oaveiwv, ~e TEAtKO anoTtAa~a T~V ail~~a~ TWV E1tla<paAetWV T"'V TpanE!;wv.
l:UYKeKpl~Eva, ~ e1tlppaOUva~ T~<; OlKOVO~tK~<; avanTil!;E"'<;, Myw T~<; ~ElwaE"'<; T~<; Ka
tOVOAwcrEW~ Kat twv 1
tEVOUOEWV , jltWVEt tT]V KEpboq)Qpia tWV e1ttX lpf]crEWV Kal obllye(
ae nTwXeilaec<; Kal anOAUaEt<; Epyal;o~Ev"'v. M e TOV Kivouvo TPIl1t el;l~<; Kpiaew<;, au!;n
vovral TIl aa<pMlaTpa Klvoilvou Yla T~
ausavovrll<; T~V 1(\8av6T~TIl ~al;IK~<; eKpO~<;
Ke<paAiliwv.
'OAOI Q[ KlVOUVOl lVIll an~AVOTOI Kill an~AOTpO<POOOTotivTal. 'On",<; aT~V KIlA~
<paa~ OAE<; 01 ~eTa~ OAE<; ~Tav np o<; T~ SenK~ KIlTeil8uva~, aT~V KaK~ <po.a~ ival npo<;
xwpa,
T~V apv~n~.
on
Tl<; apv~nKt<; 1tpOaOOKle<; EVlaXUel ~ avayvwpta~ ano TOU<; ole8vi<; enEVouTt<;

01
APXE<; OEV ~J(opoilv va rovouv nono. npaWllTa Yla va aTa~aT~aouv T~V apv~TIK~ aUT~
XlOvoanpo.oa. Eo.v 1(poa1taS~aouv va ano<pilyouv T~V unoTl~~a~, ~e u'V~MTepa E1UTOKlIl,
EMox'0el
0 Kivbuvo~
va Q"1'[ucrouv
0\ npoavaq>Epeeiae~
(POUcrKE<;. E1tIttAOV,
Ol
aVlaop
ponie<; 8a vTaSoilv, ~E anOTEAa~a ~ avano<puKT~ npoaap~oy~ va Eivlll ~EYaA6Tep~.

Eav a<p~aouv TO v6~la~a va unon~~8 E~ 8a 0~~lOupy~80uv nA~8wplanKE<; mEaEI<; ano
r~v nAeupo. T~<; 1tpompopa<;. E1tmAEOv, 8a aVn~TUl1tlaOUV npopA~~a 01 oaVelaSEvre<; ae
SEvO vO~la~a, ~E (l1(OTtAea~a Kal1(MI va au~~Soilv Ta aa<pMlaTpa KlVOilvou.
DeplaaoTEp<; Ae1tTO~EpEtE<; KaTWTEpw, a~v U1tO-EVOT~Ta "01 ' L;iou~ES' Kplaet<;
Tpan el;tKES & LuvaUay~anKt<;".
'Ey8uo 17.3. KEYT IKWY T arrE WY BiOI na aM hOI
Anio TaU KUKAOU 0 OTTOrO~ m:plypOipETOI OTO KupiwC; KEiIJEVO ( ivOI I'] ETTI6 iw~r'J TToMaTTAWV mox wv
IJE EAOXIOTO opyava VOIJIO}JOTlK~<; TTOAmK~C;, OE ouvl)uOOj..lO IJE OVE~f:,\tYKTE<; E~E)..f~EIe; one; i5IE9vEfe;
xp~~aTavoptc;.
:[TO TTop6v f:V9ETO OVOAUETOI TTWe; oUT6 ~JTTopEf va OOlly~OEI OTI'] Oll1J10upyfo E:UKOIPIWV UTTEP
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- 1034,2002, Kat 2. "Mexico' s Balance of Payments Crisis: A Chronicle of A Dealh Foretold". by
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Aaiwv
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XOPOKTrIPIOTIKO EfvOI TO TTOPOKO:TW anoorroolJo OTTO t va 6p6po TOU Guillermo Calvo, Evee; EK
5
TWV KOAUTEPWV IJATIlTWV TWV OIESvWV powv HTEvi5UTlKlllV KEqlOAOlwv.
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TTTU~We; ;;:-,5% Tllv TTEpiooo 1985 - 1997, TOV U41I1AOTEPO OTIlv AOTIVIK~ AIJEPIK~, Ko8we; KOI OUOTI1
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TWV IOPOWV KECPOr.oiwv.
5 "Sudden Stops, Financial Factors and Economic Collapse in Latin America: Lessons from A r
genlina and Chile". by Guillenno Calvo and Em esto Talvi, NBER Working Paper # 11153 , Febru
ary 2005.
14
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15
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napci TOura, IJE TTlV mOIJEV'l Kpfo'l Sa ETTOVEASEI TO 9EIJa O'T'lV ETTlKOIPOT'lTO .. 'Eral Elvol 'l 01
KOVOIJIK~ ~w~ !
17.3 npi TWV IuvaAAaYllaTIKwv npIOpl<1IlWV

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otatapaxte; ~ KUl va aOK~oouV allotAa~an~ OlKOVO flt~ 1l0Alt\K~. fta llapaoElYfla, OE
~ia ~tKP~ x<ilpa ~E ora8Ept<; taOtl~iE<;, ~ia atic,1]o1] tOU 0,,8voti<; E1lltoKiou OV 80. OOllY~
OEl avaYKaatlKa OE atic,1]"'l tOU erxwpiou ellltoKiou, Ka~ A6yw aUl~ e;, OE fldwo1]ll1 e; na
paywy~e; KUl atic,1]"'l 11]e; aVEpyiae;,. Allo 11]V aUll llAeupa, o~w<;, ~E to va E~1l 00 (~OUV
tllV EAeli8 EPll pO~ EnVOUtlKWV Ke<paAaiwv, 01]~LOUpYOtiv KOOtO<; OE OAOU <; tOU<; OlKOVO~t
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KlvijoEwe; tWV 10tWllK<ilV1[VOUtlKWV K<paAaiwv. Ot e1l1pA118tvtee; Kata 111 OlapKEla lOU
A' rraY Koo~(OU 1I0At~ou llEPloPta~oi ~p8lloav OtaOlaKa atll oeKatia tOU 1920, yta va
EllIPA1180tiv KatllaAl Kata t'1 olapKEta. t1]<; tapax<ilooue; OEKat(ae; lOU 1930 U1l0 T1]V 11101]
Tll ~ )l.EYaAT]~ 1laYKoalllou urpEaEoo~, HOV Tpa1U:.:~tKWV Kp(m:wv Kat tWV avra)'wVtattKWV
U1tOtt).l.ftoE<OV.
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OtllP<ilv ouvaUay~anK<ilv llEpLOP10~<ilv oro flE"i rov B' rraYKooflLO rroAe~o otiotll~a
'Bretton Woods'. To EKKpe~te; UPX10E va KlveirUlllpOe; t1]v KalapYllo~ roue; Ot1] oEKaet(a
tOU 1970, otav ~ aVU1l1uc,11 TOU OlE8votie; E~lIOp(OU Kat tWV 018v<ilv xp1]~arayopwv Ull t
OKallt T1]V all otAa~aTlKoT1]ra TWV llEpLOP10~<ilv EK llapaU~Aou ~E tllV auc,avo~f:Vll
avayvwptaT] TWV 1tapvEp),ElcDV TOU ~.
H KalaPYlloll tWV nEplOplo~<ilv, Kat 11 ouvaKoAou811 allEAeu8t pw"'l t1]e; KtvijOEW<;
mv 101WtlKWV 1[SVOunK<ilv KE<paAa(wv, apxtOE one; p'Oflllxav,Kte; X<ilPE<; OTO TtAO<; tlle;
H wJ.,a:ytl t'le; OtKOVO~tKite; op8030~lw; ElVUl ycvlIco-rpo tpatV6~EVO 1Ll iiEV ItplopK;"Tat OTOU<;
cruvo),AaY)lanKou<; nEp1Oplo~ O U<;. fl Ep lypa<pctal nopacrt"UT1K6taTa OTO ap8 po TaU Moises Haim
"Washi ngton Consensus or Washin1gon Confusion?", TO anoia OTU10O"!.u8 IlKC OTO beptIO 1tCPIOO t
KO Forc (gn Policy (No . I J 8, Spring 2000, pp. 86 - J 03):
;'W hat changes more often, the fashion designs coming from Paris and Milan or the eco~
nomi c policy designs that Washington and Wall Street prescribe to less dev eloped or post
communist countries? Although the comparison may seem frivolous, a review of the ideas that
guided thinking and action about economie refonns in the 1990s shows they we re as faddish as
skirt lengths and tie widths. The difference. o f co urse, is that fashion in eco nomi c po licy affects
how mi lli ons of people live and define th eir children 's opportunity for a better future:'
I E EAru8cPIl Qnooocrrj:
Tt aM.6.~E \ cruXVOTEPO, '1IJOOO 01[6 to DopiO"! Kat to MtA.uvO ~ Ol cruvtuyt<; OlKOVO)lIKl}<; xot..tn
K~ C; n~ onoi<; 01 ou; 8vci~ OtKOVO).ll!Coi opyav tcr~o i 1Tt ~ OuacrtVYKTOV Kat at XP'1~Ut1(rtE<; 111<; Wall
Street E::1tl~at..Aoov one; av01rrucroOIJVEe; !Cat one; npwTlv KO~)l OovlcrnKEC; xwpce;; fl180vov 'l cr"6
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I(t<; a ')J~oyt<; OTTJ OE KOETio TOO 1990 01[OBW(vUEI 6n ~taV lloBa noo nEpaOt , 61[0<; nEpvo 11 ~63a
yta TO 1l~1(OC; TTJS tpOumac; Kal t o nwtoe; t'l<; ypapurctS. H 01Oq)QPO, /3EPUlwS, Eivat Ott 11 11600; ITITlV
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tva KUAutE PO IlE/J..oV ym TO nat010: TOO S.
16
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otKOVOJ.1.1K~ U1tOOO).1Tl Kat IllV tEXVOyvoocria y1.Cl va ac;t01t ot~ crouv Ta getLKCt t WV OtE9vwv
1IVODTtKcOV KecpaAaiwv Kat va ,.u:rpuIO"oDV to. apVrr'ClKU t ous,.

TtAo<;, Ol npoavaq>ep8Evree; orTjV evorTjta 17.2 llPOPATjflalloflo[ Yla ra OlE8vli 1lev
ounKel KCqlaAClla CtnOreAoov l(JXUp~ EvOlSTj on 10 eKKpEflE<; [aw <; txeL apx{al va KlVEiral
Kat llaAl npo<; tTjV llAWpa rwv nEpLOplaflWV, aKOflTj Kat ot.<; ClV1lWYflEvee; xwpee;. Oua.a
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KOlV KEq>UAUirov.
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18
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Kanotas anpOpAEnT'lS aUa ~ndyouaas nA'lpw~lis. Enia'lS, 'l aOEla Esaywyt'l, auvaUay
~aTO, va OiVETClI ana tva ~IKPO ypacp Eio, am unCyEla T'l, KEVTplKTJ, Tpant~'l" aTO onoio
tpya~ETClI ym I1EPIKt, mpE, T'lV 'll1tpa tva, nOAil a XOWaTlKO, -Kal Ol, EK TOI"OU apyo,
aT'l OIK1IEpaiwa 'l TOlV alTt'laEwv-unaU'lAos.
"Eva, 7rEPIOP"'I'O' aE Til'" tXEl va KaVEl ~E T'l XPt'I"'l olaq>o p~"tlKmV cruvaUaYl1aTt
Kmv laOTt~lmV Yla El1nOplKts Kat XP'll1aTOOlKOV0I11Kt, auvaUayts. AUTe, 01 tcronl1i~s
1IpoaolOpi~oVTat OIOIK'lTtKa, o'lAaot'l au9aipEm, Kat auxvli olaq>tpouv KClTa nOA" ano T'lV
laOTll1ia T'lS ayo pa, - aUTt'lv T'lV onoianpoaolOpi~ouv 01 cruVSliKE<; npoa<popa, KCll ~'lTt'I
aEOl,. fla napaoEly~a, Eav 'l tcrOTll1ia aT'lV ayopa auvaUaYl1aTO, EiVCll NV 1O/, tvm Yla
1ltv8tlaEl, XapToq>l)wKiOI) aT'l Utopia t XEl OPlaTEi NV5/, 'l UnEpTlI1'lI1vr] laoTll1ia I1El
mVEl T'l (JuvaUawaTtKt'I an080(J'l TOlV stvwv 81ItvOUTmv, ESi(Jw(J'l (14.3), Kal En'lPEaI;El
apvTIHKtl nr; eneYouaeu; tOUr; crr11 xwpa KaL tlr; avt{crtotXer; potr; nVOUtlKWV Ke<pa)"aloov.
!.Ke<pgefte n OlKOVO~tK6 Kiv11tP O unapxe1 Y1a arbitrage ~et~u tOOv QUO tcrOtq.J.UDV.
Kal Tt EUKClIpiES Yla olaq>Sopa 01 OUO I(JOTtl1iES O'll1lOupyOUV.

Ot ({Japon> lVUl avticrtotXOl "twv oaa~wv crtO E ~.l1[OplO aya8wv Kat U1tTIPO'tWv..6.:60
KAa(J(JlKa 1IapaoEiYl1aTCl, m onoia rouv avaAI)9d EKTEYm, aT'l o18Svli PlpAloypaq>ia, E(

VClI to 'eneaje' t 'l, XIAi)s TT\v "Epiooo 1991 - 1998, KClI to ' Interest Equalization Tax'
(lET) tWVH.fT.A . t11V nEpiooo 1963 - 1974. To 'eneaje' EnepaAE aTOK'l Kata9E(J'l (Jt'lv
KtvtPlKT) TpanE~a t'l, XtAt'ls I1POI)S TWV El(JEPXOl1tvOlV EntvoUTlKmV KEq>aAa iOlv. H 1,.81
wl)pyia KClI 01 Em1ItmaEl, TOI) nEplyp aq>oVtat (JT'lV Eq>ap~ oyfJ 14.7 "~l)vaUawat1 Koi
nEplOplal1oi KClt Koato, ~uvaUaymv". To lET nEplypaq>Etal ato tvS"ro 17.5.
'Ev9uo 17.6. 'Interest E uahzation Tax' - rTO 01 KOI ATT 6 AUTTa ATToT(Ata~aTa
To 'Interest Equalization Tax' mpopoOo. Til <popoA6y'lcr'1 T'1e; ayopoe; ~tvwv olJ oAoywv OTTO AIJEpt
KavOUe; .TI.vt5u TEe; . a t T.AEUTOlot, rrpOKEtlJEVOU va ayopaaouv aUTa TO olJOAoya, ~'1TOUaaV aVTiOTol~
X'1 arro~rWrwcrll UTTO TIlIJOPCP~ UijH1AoTE:poU ETTJTOKfou. H OUTW<; TTPOKOAou lJEv'1 aU~'1a'1 TaU KOOTOU<;
t5av.tcrIJOU orr08appuv. Tllv EK60Q'1 olJoMywv aTTo ~tvou<; an<; H.n.A. KOI lJ.iWOE n<; OXETlKt<; .
Kpote; KEcpaAaiwv.
To lET aTTOT.Af KAaoOtKO TTapat5.JYlJa TTEPIOPIQIJOU 0 OTTO foe; TTapaKOIJCP8'1K. at .TTt8 ulJoU~
VT.e; va EK6wcrouv 0lJoAoya o. 60Aapia arpo<P!lKav on<; UTTEpaKnEe; (offshore) ayopte;, Ka8w<; en:
aUTte; 6TTOU &v f:(pOPIJO~OTOV 0 OXTtKO<; TTEPIOPIO~O<; .
rT'1V Ot K OVO lJtK~ tOTopia , TO lET mOTwvTal ~E lJia IJryaAfl w8fl0'1 OT'1V ovO: mu~Il aUTwv TWV
ayopwv, ova6.IKvuOVTO<; tva cpOlVOlJrVtKa TTopa60~0: npoOTIa9wVTOe; va aTToKT~oOUV lJ.yaAu T.po
t.Ayxo OT'1V OtKovolJia T'1 e; xwpa<;, 01 Apxt<; TWV H.n.A t6wcrav w8llo'1 O'TI<; KOT.~OX~V oyopt<; o~
TTOU Tt.TOtOe; tA.yxo<; t5rv IJTTopi vo .cpapIJOoTi.
To lET aTTon:AEi, ETTfotle;, KAaaolKo TTap65ElYIJO T'1<; arratToulJ.vlle; oT0610K~<; EVlO"XU O,w<; TWV
TTrplOplOIJ WV rrpoKEtlJEVOU va 610rrlP'19Ei '1 OTTOI O OTTOTA.OIJOTIKOTtlTO TOU<;. npoOTIo8wVTO<; va
rrO paKOlJlVOUV TO lET, at ETIl8UIJOUVW; va t50vrI OTOUV a. fioAopta aPXloav va O~tOTTOJOUV TO TTO
pa8upOKIO TaU . 'ETCI OTpaq>'1Kav m: t56:v.Ia aTTO AIJ.ptKOVlK<; TpciTT~.e; . AUTO w8'1ar TI e; Apxte; TWV
H.n. A. va 8.arriaouv TO 1965 ox.nKo OPIO IJE TO A(yojJ.vo 'Foreign Credit Restraint Program ', e~
AOVTIKO O'T'lV apx ~ UTTOXPWTIKO OTTO TO 1968.
To lET KaTOpy~e~KE
Ot
'P6POl
TO 1974.
~.J.1tOpOUV va 1l8ta~<plcrtOUv Kut wr; Kav6ve<; tau 9cr~\KOU 1lAutcrlOU. flU nu
pa.oe\.y~a, 1lpOKE1~i:vOU va uu~~crouv to KocrtOr; e~(i)tf,:plKOU QavlO'~oU . 01 t1l01ltlKtr; ap
XE, Ilia Xmpa, I1nopoilv va ElIlpaAol)v 1)'V'lAOt8POI), aI)VTEAcaTt<; KCq>awlClKTJ, 81IapKEia,

ym Tpan~e, I1E tKSEa'l aE (JuvaUUwatlKO Kivouvo. 'H, 01(0l, at'lv 1IEpinTOl"'l t OI)
eneaje, va ausi)aol)v TOI), cruVteAcaTE, pEIlaTOt'ltUS Yla KamgeaEl, aE stvo V0111al1a.
fla EntvOUa81, aTO xp~~anaTtiplO, 111IOPEi va ElIlPA'lSOUV KavOv lal1oi olaq>a.vElClS
ym envou"ttr; 01 onoiOl Kattxouv 1lavoo an6, n.x., 5% "tou ~EtOX1KOU Ke<paAalou EYXWp(wv
19
Lxol..toc XOCt
E1ltO"llf!.dcvclSt~
l..ocOWV EOllQOcrI)EX1OC.
Ku~wv~(Jtc
XQ!l lJ eua:yoQEc & MtxqOOlXOV0l*ta:
Kcl.flO:ACXlO 17
EllIX!P~crEWV. H Ecpapfloy~ toUS OlWlOUPYEi KOcrT~. MlIOPEi, ElIicr~S, va alIoSapptivEl Ka

nOla a~OtPa{a Ktcp6Aata ta onola 8AOUV va Ota4'UAa.~oUV tllV avwvu)J.to toW 1U:voUtrov
nou Pp(OKovtat uno nlac:o.
HAOS, ~ lIA~P~, anayopE1JG~ EcpapflosETat YLa LDlCOTLKa KEcpaAata. Eav DEY ulIap
XDDV Kat cruvaAAoyec; 1teplOucrtOKWV O"TOlXeiwv uno 1<PUtlKOUC; !poptiC;, to lcrO~UYlO XPllIlU
TOOLKOVOfllKWV cruvaUaywv Sa Eival
fl~otv,
CF ~
f EV lKU, Ol cruvuAAaYJ.lUnKOi 1teptoplcr)lo{ EXauv
o.
we; crt6xo
IllY ClV1"t)l1"wmcrll acrtOXl(OV 'tWV
ayopwv Kat TOV KaAUTEpo tAEYXO T~S OIKOVOflias. at aGTOXLES T~S ayopas rrEpJ.afl~a
VOUV, XOlpiS va rrEplOpii;oVTat, TIS U1IEP~OAt<; crTT.<; OIESVEiS xp1]flaTayopts, orrOl, Ot KUKAOI
urrEp-atGlOOOSOlV rrpoao01owv, Ta crTpE~Aa Kiv1]Tpa E1IEYDUTWV Kal OaVEli;ofli:vcov, orrOlS
Ta lIEptYPU<jloflEYa crTa i:vS ETa 14.5 Kat 16.5 Kat T1]V EYOT1]Ta 17.2, Kat TOUS ESOlYEYEis rra
paYOVTES 01 orroiOl E1I1]PEa sOUV TO tcrOi;uylO xp1]flaTOOIKoVOflIKWV GUvaUaywv flias xw
pas, OreOle; 10 ~ contagion'.
a OE KaAUTEPOS EAEYXOS T1]S OIKovoflia, p01]Sa crt1]v ErriTEUS1] TOlV crtOXOlV t1]S OLKO
VOflLKTJS rrOAItlKTJ, crE i:va rrEptpaUov 6rrou to IOIOlnKO Kat to D1]flOcrlO GUflCPtPOV OEY
GUflpaoii;ouv 1IaVTa. 1\0yOl autoti, Ot IOICOTLKtS arrocpacr!s OEY EiVat rraVTa cruflBaTts flE
tllV OlKOYO)llK1lnOAttLKyt Kat to E1tlOU:.oKO)lEVO Ku),,6 IOU KOlVWV1KOU crUVOAOU. TU7tlKU au
jl1tlWIlOta 01tOtEAOUV to eK tooV J.lcyO:AWV [to-poffiv Kat tKPOWV OtAT)Jl!lClta, KnOwc; Kat 0
Kivouvo<; Yla crUV(lUaYflaTLK~ Kat Tpa1IESLKfJ KpiG1].
EtOtKOTEpa, 01 GUvaUaYflanKoi rrEplOplcrfloi GuvfJScos tXOUV GTOXO t1] flLCOG1] tOlv
ELOPOWV ~/Kat HOV EKPOWV loW 1tEVOU1tKWV KttpaAaiwv, yta trlV t1[itu~l1 crUYKtKPlJ.1tvWV
GtOXwv t~S OtKOvOfllKfJ, 1I0AltIKTJS "Evas aUOS GTOXO Eivat ~ aUayfJ T1]S cruvStcrECOS TCOV
lcrp OWVUlItp tCOV flEcro-ftaKp orrpoS tcrflCOv crvtL tCOV ppaXUlIpOSecrflCOV.
E~ELbLKEUOvtW; 1ttpULtEPW, EVDElKHKOl crt6XOl lWV 1tEPlOptOJ.1WV crn~ ElOpOt~ tivm Ol
KUtw9t.
./ H arroqlUyfJ rrpaYflanKTJS aVaTtflTJGECOS, OlIOlS crT1]V 1IEpimcoG1] tOU MEStKOti GTO tVSETO
17.2.
./ H arrocpuy~ lcrpOWV arrocrtaSEpOrrOt1]TtKWV ppaxunp6SwflcoV ElIEYOUTtKWV KEq>aAai
COY, OlICO, crt1]v 1IEpimcocr1] toU avOlrtpco avaq> Ep Si:vToS ' eneaje ' t1]S XJ.~S H EKtifl1]cr1]
tDS DLESvOtiS DtpALoypaq>ias Eival on to 'eneaje' DEY flEiOlGE tiS IGPOtS aUa atis~crE
to 1t0000t6 t{i)V J.1 Ecro- J.1aKp01tp09to),lwv Ot orroiE~ bEV 1[l1pEa~OvtUv arro tOY rrEptOpl
crflO.
./ t.IOpSOlG1] rrAEOvLlcrflatoS tOU Icroi;uyiou lIADPCOflWV xcopiS t~ xpfJcr1] E1IEKTatl~S vOfll
crflan~s 1I0AltlKfJS ~ o1Ioia fllIO pEi va lIpomAtGl rrA1]ScopLOTtKtS meGlS arro T~V
nAtupa T1]S i;1]TTJcrECOS, orrco<; crTa GEYapw T1]S EYOt1]TaS 16.2 "MtKP~ Xwp a - ErrEKTa
crel~" .
./ ITEptOPlcrflOs t~S EmopacrEcos twv GUVS~KWV crn, OLESvdS xplwatayopts GT~V cyxwpw
OtKOvoflia Kat TtS EYXW PLE, xp1]flaTayopts
./ H lIpoGTuoia a1I6 ESayopa EYXOlpiOlv talPlWV Kat tpalIESWv.
./ MEiCOG1] TWV GtPEPAwv KtV~rpOlv tWV maSEpwv tcrotlfltWV (EVOt1]Ta 16.5 "EtOIKa 0t
flata") .
./ MELcocr1] T1]S mSavot1]TaS cruvaUay).lanKTJs KpiGEOlS. ErrlOTJ crE 1IEptODOUS KpiGECOS ci
vat 1tOAU OUOKO).O va rreptoplcrtouv Ol eKpot~ KEtpUAUiwv, n~ o7toi~ EVl0xU0UV Ol a7to
ota8po7tOLlltlKt~ 1tpocrboKiE~ D7tOn).1tioEw~, elva1 7tpOtt).10tEPO va E1tlPciAAOVtUl1tPl
Optcrfloi crns lcrpOt<;. at EY MyOl 1IEptOptGflOi fllWVOUV ta OtaStmfla lIpO<;
EKPO~
ipaAata Kat EtOl ).1ElWVOUV tllV m8av6tlltu OUVaAAUyj.tUtlKti~ KpioEW~.

MCtALOta, Eivm OXtlKa eilKOAO va Ec.pap).100tOUV, Kat 011 crE O~lUAt~ 1tEPl6DOU~, KU
9 w~ ).17tOPOUV va EKAllc.p8ouv 8EnKo., w~ ).1tpo~ tWV Kav6vwv E1t01ttlac; tOU XPllJ.1atoOl
KOVO).ltKOti GUGn1flatOS. AVTtSttOlS, at rrEploplcrfloi crtlS EKpOt<; GUV~SCOS EKAaflpavo
VTat coS i:vOl~1] alI pOSUfliaS tcov Ap xwv va ULOSETTJcrOUV GUVErrfJ, flE Ta KpLT~pla tcov
ayopwv,
rrOAttt~.
'Ayye:AOt; A.
Km 01 ayopts (<TtflCOpotiv flE UlV1]AOtepa acrq>aALGTpa KIVOUVOU.
~-\ V!~ouAa:tot;
20
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-13ri II lD> '(,91 Dlll19'" Alllll (<Dg,ndJ. lllDA~gy 'Ul rn,l UllUl\t)n!> Alll lD" X9SD> ' Z:91
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vou. Eav oev apaoliv 01 aUVa~K, 01 01(oie, 1(p0KaAoliv tl, pot" TU f, amwv npoDA~l1aw
apyli ~ ypr,yopa aa ql<pavlOtOuV.
Yrrtp HOV 1tepLOplol.U)W ouvllyopEi Kat to Otl Ol pote; HOV OLE9vrov &1tEVOUllKOW KE
q:>UAo.lWV 1tTJ PE~ovrat ano 1tAimouc; 6aouc; nap6.yOvtE<;, 1tOALtlKOUC; Kat OlKOVO~tK01j.:;,
Ol 01( 0101 oev At rxOVtal an6 tt<; APxt, Kat ouxv Ct oev EXOUV axal] 11 t'1v OIKOVO~IK~
nOAmK~ Kal ta a~A1WOl] 01KOV0l11Ka l1ytal] tl], xwpa,. 0 1 V AOYW napayovte, na
pou(Jla~OVml aUVeKtlKa oto o~l1a 14.2.
cl>alV1"at AOY1KO va 1ttO U:DKEtUl 11 ~io)(rrl Ttl'; emopucrE(J)<; t Etot{J)V napay6vroov Ot
01tOiOl ~1t Op OUV va U7[ovo~eUcrouv ilia aUVHtl Kala t' nUn OllCOVOlllK'11 J[OAltlKll Kat va
1U~plOpiao$v HIV autovo).1ia HOV Aptrov, unOVOI..U:;UOvrru; trOt <J't'lV E1tit\)~TJ tWV avant\)
E,WKWV ot6xwv tl], xwpa,. IToao o l1aUov, otav t U; n mtWol, tWV ev Myw rrapayo
Vt(l)V ucpicrtavrm 8ucrcrvuAoya Ot acr8evtotf:pe<; KOlVWV1KEC; O).1CtO E<;.
~ta apvqnKCt E,xwPl~OUV to u'Vl]A6tpo KOOto, oaV10110iJ tWV eyxwp(WV OIKOV0I11
KWV napayovtWV Kat m atppAU Klvl]t pa. To U'Vl]AOtpO ICOato, 1(potpxetal ana tl] 111
KPOtPT1 ola8wl~Otl]ta K<p aAaiwv,
otl]v e<pawoYT; 14.7 "~uvanaYl1atlKOi ITP10
pla ~ol Kat Koato<; ~uvaUay6:Tv", tllV tna'Vll avtaywvl0l10U OtO yx6:TplO xp'lliat 001Ko
V0l11KO OuOtl]l1a, '1 onola avaAlia'lK <Jtl]v votl]ta 4.4 "0WI11KO ITAal"'o Ka l ITpaYliatl
Ka Emt6KLa", Kal to u'V'lMtepo ao<paAlatpO KLvolivou, Kaa6n 01 xwp e, ot 01(0Ie, e<pap
~o(ouv n e plOplo~OU, avtll1etWnl(ouv l1aICpOOlKOV0l11KCt npopA~l1ata KaeW, Kat HIV Ka
XU1(0ll'la tWV ayop6:Tv (pAmet t'lV VOt'lta 14.4 " EneKtaoa," Kat to tve"o 17.4).
'Eva ano a'll1avtlKo apvqnK6 elvat '1 OuoKoAla an oteAWl1atlK~, <pawoy~, tWV
nplOplo~WV. M t'lv napooo tOU Xpovou, 01 voW'PP OI1VOl OIKOVO~lKOl 1(apayovte,
pplaKouv tP01(OU, ano<puy~, tWV 1(PlOPlOI1WV, olappWvOvta, tllv (l1[oteAeolianKotl]ta
tou,.
ITP OKl f'VOU va olat'lP'l8el '1 a1(OtAWlianKOt'ltCt tou" Ol 1(eplOpl0I10( np En[
npoooUnKCt va KaaiotaVtal auot'lP OtepOl, O'l~lOUPYWvta<; l1eyaAUpo KOOtO, ae 600u,
Sev ~.J.1(OpOUV va l'OU~ (lxQ(puyouv. T fAlKa, KQ'[(lAT\YOUV'[o apVrrnKft va U7tEpttpouv t(J)V
a"IKWV. To. tv8eta 17.7, 17.8 Kat 17.9 t o maw1(otoUv.
onw,
'Ev9HO 17.7.
nrplopltJlJWV
11lE9vt~
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TWV
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n t pav T I1~ UTTEP-TlIJO}"OV~crEW~ ~ UTTO-TllJoAoy~Of:W<'; lWV Eloaywy wv Kal e:~avwywv, 01 OTTofE<) avo
EVOTrjTa 4.4 "001-lIK6 n)..oiOio 1(01 npaYIJOTIKO ETTITOKIO", 01 EIOOYWye:[<; Kal E~aywyElc;:
j.mopollv va OTTOcpUyouv lOUe.; TTEPIOPIOjJ OU<; IJE [TEPOXPOVIOIJO TWV TTAIlPWjJOJV ~ TWV (I01Tpd~(wv
M9'1KOV O'TI1V
lOUe; OTTO lOUe; ~tvou<; OVTIOUIJPaMoIJEVoUC; TOUe;.
LUYKEKpIIJEVa , Yla va OTTOCPUYouv m:plopIOIJOUC; oe: EKpotC; KEcpo)..afwv, 01 E.loaywytfc; I..JTTOPOUV

va TTAIlPWVOUV Evwpfe;, IJE aVTdMaYlJo KclTTOIO t KTTTWOI1 , ( VW 01 (~avw y[fc; va 15tXOVTOI Ko8uO"re:PIl
IJEVIl TT)..I1PWIJ~ > )JE aVTaAAaYlJo TTEploooT.pa XPr'IIJOTO . Kalal 6uo m:pITTTI.iJoEI<; OVTIOTOIXOUV OE 60
VEIO'IJO TWV av nOUIJ~O AAOIJEVWV TaUS, Kd"n TO oTToio IOOOUVOj.H:l IJ TrW WI ETfl TptTTOIJEVfl EK PO~ 1(
q>aAalwv.
AvnoToIxw <;, Via va OTTOqHJVOUV TTEPIOPIO'I.JOU<; OTI S IOPOE<; K/pOAa[wv, 01 ElOOvwVfS IJrropEi
va ITAflPWVOUV IJE KOSUO'TEPflOfl , EITEVMovro S TO XP~/..IOTO OTfl xwpo, EVW 01 ~ovwVEiS va (flTOUV
TT" fl PW IJ~ Evw piTEpO .
I:fllJmiJoOTf: on 01 ApXE<; (lEV IJTTOpOUV f:UKOAO va TEK/..Ifl PIWaOUV on 01 EV A6vw rrpOKnKE<;, 01
OTToIE<; EivOi OUVr,SE.I<; aro qm6pIO EVT6<; Trl<; Xw po<;, orrOTEA OUV TTPOOTTC:lSEla aITo<puv~S TWV TTEPIO
PIOIJ WV. n ' aUT6 KOI (lEV /..ITTOPOUV va TI<; EMV~ouv, IJE OTTOTEAEO\JO Tfl (5 la~p wo fl Tfl<; OTTOTAEOIJOTI
KOTflTOS TWV TTE PIOPI<JIJWV.
H TOXE.io ovdTrrU~fl TaU 61E9vous q.moplou ano TO TEAOS TflS 6EKOETios TaU 1950 OU~1l0E TIS
OXET1KE<; EUKOlpiE<; orrocpuv~<; TWV TTf:PIOP10IJWV , UTTEOK04JE Tflv OTTOTf:AEOIJOTIKOTflTO TOUS KOI ouvt
l30AE OTI)V OPOIl TOUS.
AvaOEIKvuovroS on 01 TTEPIOPI<JlJoi E TTIlPEO~OUV iSuoavoAova TI<; OOSEvtOTEPES KOIVWVIKES olJOiSES
Kal TI <; IJIKPOTEPE<; ETflXE IP~O E I<;, 01 TTOAUESvIKES IJTTOpOUV va TOU<; U TTEp-TT'liS~aouv TTOAU EUKOAO IJE
Tfl X P~Ofl olaKpIT~<; TIIJOA OY~OEWS (transfer pricing).
'EOTW OTI I'} TTOAUSVIKrl ABC, IJE ii5po TIS Bpu~tMES , oVTI\JETwm(EI TTEPIOPIO\JOUS ons EKPOES
K<pOAOfwv OTTO TIlV Utopia KOl alit';; IopoiS OTTO TIlV Acadia. 01 m:ploplolJof ETTI'}PEa(OUV TI'} (lUVQTO
Tf1Ta movorroTplOIJOU TWV KEPOWV oTT6 TIlV rrp wTIl xwpa KOI Til XPflIJOTO iS6TIl0f1 TI'}S SuvaTpIK~<; OTfl
i5EuTEP l'}
22
LXOAtLX XLXt EmaYJfJ.tXvaEt~ Mawv EUllQoal'iEXtLX,
KueqvUqelc
Xq U UClL:OC)'OQEC
& M lXQOOlx ovou lex. - KetpctA.octo 17
MIKP~ '1 EVoXA'10'1, OIJWC;. ME TO va UTTEP-TlIJOAOYEi 10 TTpoiovro KOI TIe; UTT'1PEOiEe; TTOU TTOptXEI
OUI 8UYOTPIKri T'1<; OT'1V Utopia, T'1V qlCpovi~tl TTAoolJOTIKO: va lJ'1v txu KE:pl)'1 . To Ktpl)'1 TTl'wofvouv
OTr) \-l'1TPIK~ OTIe; Bp u ~tAAte; we; KOOTOe; TWV TTPO"iOVTWV KOI UTT'1PEOIWV TTOU TTOptXEI OT'1 8UYOTPIK~
Q'"Hlv Utopia. LT'1V TTEpiTTTW0'1 T'1e; 8UYOTpIK~e; OTr]V Acadia '1 TTOAUESVIK~ UTTO-TIIJOAOYE[ TO TTpoToVTO
KOI UTTr]PEOitC; TTOU TTOpEXE.1. 'ETaI, r) SuymplKr) E.lJqlOVi~ETOI IJE TTAOOIJOTIKO u\.IH1AO: KtpO'1, TO oTToio
XP'1011J0TTOlti v,a T'1V XPI"]lJaTol)oTI"]Ol"] TWV EKE.i l)paOT'1pIOT~TWV Kal ETTEVt5UO(WV TI"]e;.
L'1IJEIWTEOV, 01 UTTEP- KOI UTTO-TlIJOAOY~OEIe; t5EV EVtXOUV Kovtvav ETTlXE.IP'1IJOTIKO K rV~UVO ylO
T1"lv TTOAUESVIK~. ATTOTEAOUV AOYIOTIKte; Eyypacpte; OTO EVOTTOIl"]lJtVO AOYIO'TIKO TI)e; OUOTr)IJO.
n6VTWC;, ETOIpEiEe; 01 oTToiEe; l)EV txouv T'1V EUXtPEIO TWV TToAuE8vIKWV Ylo l)IOKPIT~ TlI.JOAoy'1
01"] , TToAAte; qlopte; KaTOcpEuyoUV Of:. TTEPIOOOTEPO IJElJmte; TTPOKTIKEe;, OTTWe; E1KOVIKtC; E~OYWYEe; ~ EI
oaywyte;, TTPOKEIIJEVOU va alTocpuyouv TTEPIOpIOIJOUe; OE Elopote; ~ EKpote; KECPOAOiwv.
To 1[UpaotlnLU tOU 1[POllYOUl1tvou EV9twu avUOW(vUEl tvu I1EYnAO oiouYl1u U1[O t~ XP'1
)..1a.tOOtKOVOIlIKTJ. tcrtopia: fta va EiVat anotEAEcr)..1atlKoi Ol 1tEPlOPtcr)..10i, nptnEl va lva.1
I1PO, EVO, E1JPUl, 1tAYl1o.tO , 1[EP10P10f"ilV on, OIKOVOI1'K, opaOt~plOt~tE" To on ij
tav anOH:AO'IJOllKoi Kala l1)V npc:inll oKatt ia tOU O1}(ft~lJatOe; ' Bretton Wood s' avta
Va.KAa. aUt~v tT\V npaY)..1atlKOtllta. Xpllcrt)..10nOlwvtae; to. Aoyta svoe; Kopu<j:mlou OtKOVO
110AOYou, "Controls held back the flood because they were not just one rock in a swiftly
flowing stream. They were part of the series of levees and locks with which the raging
rapids were tamed .,,7
fSVlK6tpa, Ota.v a.AACt.~OUV KCt.nOl~ napa 11ft pOl tOU OlKOVOlllKOU Ka.l KOWWVlKOU
1tAmO'iou a.AAa.~l Kat 1) UnOtA0'IJOttK6tllta t(l)V nplOptO',HilV. ft ' auto Kat to napA.86v
OEV eyyuntnl to I1AAOV, 600v "'popa. at~V n1[ OtEAEcrI1UttKOt~ta. touS.
Mfa tEtOta napa.lltpO~ Lvm ta unapxovta XPll)..1a.tOOlKOVO~tK6. npol0vta. Ol ayo
pBs EmOE1KvUouv I1EYa.A1] E1Jp~~atlKOt~ta ot~ o~l1lOupyia KUlVOt0l11KWV Xp~l1atOOlKovO
)..11K<ilV npot:ovt(tlV ta onoia pOlleouV lOUe; OtKOV0J.lIKOU<; napayovt<; va. nupaKCt.)lntOUv
tOU, 1[EP10P10I10U, K!ll va I1E1WVOUV tn ES autwv KO"t~. BA1tEt 0XEtlK6. to tv9 EtO 17.8.
17.8. Xp~l'aTOOIKOVOI'IKrj KQlVOTOl'ia KQI AvarrOTEAEUl'aTlKoT'lTO TWV l:u
vaMav~aTlKWV nEplOpIOIJWV
' Ev8ETO
E)EWPEfoTE TO OKOAou80 O'EvdpiO. Mfa BpETQvIK~ TTOAUE8V1K~ ETalp.fa StAEI va X p'1IJOT060T~OEI TI"]
eUyOTpIK~ T'1e; O'1'1v OMav~io . rTI"] BpETovio, OTTOU tXtl OTVOU<; l)EOj..lOUC; IJE n<; TpCmE~E<; Tile:; xw
pac:;, ~..lTTopi va ~OVEIOTt:f IJE XOIJIlMTEpo ETTITOKIO OTTO on OTI"]V OMov~io: EO'1W 5% tVOVTI 6,5%. AR
VTIOTOixwe;, ~ra OAAav~IK~ TTOAUE8vIK~ , '1 oTToia 8EA(.1 va XPflIJOTa~OT~oEI HI SuyaTplK~ HI<; O'TO
H.B., IJTTopi vo ~av108Ei cp8r}VOTEpa m'1v OAAav6 io OTTO OTI O'TO H.B. : IJE 6% avri 7%.
To I~OVlKO KOI YIO TIC; ~uo TTO'\UE8vIKte; 80 ~TOV va l)avEI<J"ToUv OTfllJ'lTPIK~ TOUe; xwpo KOI va
OTEfAOUV TO xp~IJOTa one; 8uyaTplKEe; TOUe; .
'EvEKo, OIJWe;, TWV cruvoMOYIJOTlKWV TTEPIOP10IJWV, 01 oTToiol oTTayopEuoUV Tie; ~laouvoplaKEe;
KIV~OEIe; 1t5IWTIKWV KECPOAOiwv, aU TO OEV IJTTopri va yiVEI. laIVOIJEVIKO, 01 l)uo tTOlptiEC; EivOi UTTO
XPEWlJtvC; va OOVtlOTOUV IJE U4JI"]AOTEPO TTITOKIO, '1 IJEv BpETaV1K~ IJE 6, 5% OTflv OAAav~ra , 11 ~E.
OMav~IK~ IJE 7% 0'10 H.B ..
YTTdPXEI , OIJWe;, TpOTTO<; va ETTITEUXSEi TO lt5avlKo KOI ylc TIe; t5uo ETOIPEiE<;: H BPETOVIK~ TTOAUE
8V1K~ ~TTOpEf va 6aVEIOTEi IJE 5% OTO H.B KOI va OWOEI TO xp~IJOTa OT'1V OAAav~IKr) 8UYOTPIK~ . Tou
TOXPOVO , '1 OMovl>I1(~ TTO'\UE.aVrK~ ~TTOpEi va t5avEloTEf TO i~IO TTOcrO IJE 6% crr'1v OMov6ia Kal va
~WOEI TO xp~j..JaTa OT'1V BpETOvIK~ 8uyaTpIK~. KerSE TTEpioiSo, fl TTPWT'1 ETOlpEfa So E~UTT'1PETEi TO
TTPWTO t56vIO , fl t5E ~EUTEPfl TO ~EUTEpO.
ME OUTOV TOV TPOTTO, KOI 01 ~UO TTOAUE8vIKEe; j..lTTOPOUV va xpl"]lJaTO~OT~oOU V Tie; 8UyOTPI KtC;
TOUe; \JE TO XOIJI"]AOTEPO TTITOKIO , xwpie; va XPEIOOTEi KOlJiO ~laouvopIOK~ KiV'1crfl KEcpaA.oiwv . 01 ou
vaMOYIJOTIKO[ TTEPIOPIOlJoi TTopaKOIJCP81lKOV IJE VOIJIIJO TPOTTO KOI 01 t5uo TTOAUE9vIKte; IJEiwoav TO E~
OUTWV K60'TOe;.
Barry Eichengreen, Globalizing Capital

Princeton Un iversity Press, 1996, p. 94.
A History of the International Monetary System,
23
I:XOAtlX XlXt E1tt(HW<i\lO'Et~
MaW\I
EoneoO'liEX11X.
KUWViJOE:lCX OIllJ.lXca:yoQsc & MlXOOOlXOV0lJ.la: - Ke:r.pc1t...a:lO 17
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r - _ __ _ !lpgr~'Cil
_ __ __ ,
BpETaVIK~ TponE~a
5%
__ __ ~~a.Y9i'!-.. ______ _
OMaV~IK~ TponE~a
16%
6,5%
OOOV aq:>opO OTO pMo TaU XPI1~OTOOlKOVO~IKOU OUOT~~aTO<;, KCtrrOIO<; (5la~O'oAa~flTll<; tCPPE a
UTOI.pr; TI<; oUO narpi<;, tvavn KCtrrOIOe; a~olf3~<;. ErrI~~ OJ ~EI(5IKu~tVOI OUToi (5lo~EaoAol3flTte;
yvwpl<ouv ",oAO' TO (5lclq:>opa xpl1~aTOOIKOVO~IKO TTpoi6vTO K08w<; KOI , \Jtow TWV oioauvotO'EliJV
TOU<;, TI<; OVOyK<; TWV O'u~~nEx6VTWV one; ayopt<;, ~.JTTOpOUV va rraptxouv Trj 0XTJKrl UTTI1Poia TTC
Au OTTOTE:AEa~OTlKa KOI I-IE XO~rjA6 KOcrTOe; .
KOI 6Aol EivOi EuxaplaHl~tvOi . 01 ~IO~EooAol31"jTt<; olon txouv EI0'60l"jl-lo. 01 /'juo TToAuE8vIKt<;
15lon XPrj~OTO~OTOUV nt; 9UYOTPIKE<; TOUe; ~. ~IKpOn:pO KOOTO<;, K090n 11 0~0I13~ TWV ololJEO'oAol3l1
TWV EivOI TToAu \JIKpOTEprj Trj<; ETTITEUx8Eial1<; OlKovolJio<; O'E TOKOUe;.
no TToAM! rrpol'ovTO, TO OIToio Eivor TUTTOITOrlllJtvo KOI OIOTTpaYIJO'TEUOVTOI OE OPYOVWlJtva xpl1~on
arr;pIO, orrw<; (iVOI TO OUI-l136AOIO futures , OV XPEI6:~OVTOI KaV (510IJEOoAa~IlTt<; . Or Evl5ra<pEp0I-IEVOI
IJrropouv va I3pouv EUKoAa TO rrpo'i6vTO TO oTToio XPE.IO<OVTOI , OK6~11 KOI ylO TI"jV rrArlPI1 OTTO<PUYrl
TWV auvaAAaYIJOTIKwV TTEPIOPIOIJWV, IJE \-lia ~IKP~ ETTtv~uall OTrjV TEX\'oAoyia Hl<; TTAl1p0qlOPIKrl<;.
LTllv TTOXrllJ0<;, \Jlo ouvl)E0'1 aTO olol)iKTUo, ETTiYEIO ri 150pUI.pOPIK~, EivOI auvr;8w<; apKET~-Kal TTt
po OTTO TOV OTTOTEM:O~OnK6 tAE.yxo TWV Apxwv
Ta avw1tpw rrapao Eiy~am, 01tWS Kat aU1a 1~S EV01~1as 4.4, avaOlKVuouv Kat tva aUo
IH;yo.AO apvTJtlKO trov 1tEplOpla).u:OV: A1toupyouv KUp(c:.oe; KarU 1'CJ.)V aaOevan:pwv KOlvW
VlKWV 0J.lUO(J)V Ol onoi<; oev tXOUV OUt 'ta )lEaa, OUt ne; SUKatpiEe;, aAAU out Kat tte;
YVW(>ElS yla va ~t1plaUOUV to KoUtOS twv 1tEpIOPIU~WV . TIolOS Epyat;o~EvoS ~ ~IKp6s Errl
XElp~~a1ill<;' yla 1tapao"y~a, aKo~~ Ka\ av iXE ue; yvwu"S, Sa d XE t~v CIlKa4lla va <PEP
Sd 6nws 01 E1tlX"p~UE\S 10U 1WV OUO 1tpo~you~tvwv EvSt1WV;
TIpoKimm., o~WS, tva uopap6 EpWt~~a: 0a ~rropouuE ~ia xwpa va arroAaucrEl 1a
OE'tlKU t(J)V nEptOptO'J.lWV, J.llWvovrCle; tautox.povwe; to. apVllttKcl tOUe;;
H anavtllu~ dVIll ~illov apV~tlK~. 0EWPEim:E t~v nEpimw"'1 1ttAEKnK~S Empo
A~S <ruvaUay~a1lKWV nEp\Oplu~WV, yla UUYKEKPI~tvO Kill npoKaSoplu~tvo XPOVIKO ola
atrl)..la, yla 1tltUSTJ OUYKKP1)1EvOU Kat )1tpTJO'l)10U ot6xou. AK0)111 Kal av 1tltUXOd a
,noxoe; Kal apSouv Ol1tep\Oplcr~oi, Ol ayopts Sa txouv Kataypa1jlEl t~v rrlSIlV6t~ta E1tl
flOA~S napo~oiwv rrep,opl"~WV "CO ~EnOV Ka~ onwS avaAuS~KE cr1~V EVot~m [4.4, Sa
t;~tOUV U1jIllA.OtPO au<paAlm:po KIVOUVOU.
Kat aut6 [{vat to suvOlKO OevUPIO, Ka96'tt Grav 1tlf3uAAovral K(l1tOtOl 1tptOPlO')10{
ouuKoAa aipovcat. A<p~vovcas Kata ~tpos til ypa<pEIOKpatlK~ aopavEla, 01 1teplOplu~oi
cuvoouv XU1totQu<; 01 onolOl ea t xouv to O1KOVO)1tKO KlvTJrpO va. 1tpoO'1taa~crouv, )1E 9E)1l
ta Kat aSt~l1a ~tua, 1~ olat~p~cr~ couS. "Ouotv ~ovl~6tpov tOU 1tpOUWPlVOU !
EJtt1tA..EOV, '1 avriopaOll1'WV ayopwv, 01 01toiEe; KatU Kav6va avtl)..lrW1[lsOUV apVlltt
Ka touS rreplOplu~OUS AOYW tOU Otl 1tEPlOpit;ouv tiS ErrtAoyts, O~~lOUPYOuv K6m:~ Kat
)1tWVOUV tte; arrooocrl<; tc:.ov m:voU1WV, ~mopi va tx,u a1tp6~A7tt<; O'UV1tEle;. To tvO
to 17.8 to 1tlotonOtEl..
24
LX0I,(O( XO(( e1ttay]f-l1XV(JEtS 1,000wv eo1tQoaOex,O(.
-Ev8ETO 17.9. H 'AMEP ia' lWV A
WV OlOU l:uvaMav allKou nE
10 101'0U
To orolXEra OUTDU TOU (Vatrou TTpotPXOVTOl ano Tl"lv tYKPITr) KOI KOTa KOv6va KOAO TTAllPoCPOPI"H,lEVIl
CPIl~Epj6a Financial Times ,s
AVTIIJETWTTI~oVTa<;: TO OiArHJ~a TTI.i)!) va OTTOCPUYEI TIlv OVO lJacnIK~ avoTil..l'lO'1 TaU VOl..li0I..lOTOC:;:
KOI Tl'lv OUV aUT~ orrWAEIO OVTOVWVIOTlKOr'lTO<;: Mav umipXEI t~apa'l TWV EIOPOWV TTEVOUT1KWV KE
cpaAoiwv, '1 KEVTPIK~ rp61Te:<a TI,,; TaOMv6rv; ETTt.~aAE Hlv 18f\ .6.EKEJ..lj3pfou 2006 aucJTllPouS TTEPIO
P10IJOU<;: OTIS (Iopats Kq>aAafwv: 30% TWV VEWV (IOPOWV TTavw OTTO $20.000 6cpEIAQV va KQrOTE
8auv aTOKa C1T!1V KEVTP1K~ rpOTT.<a, yla tva Xp6vo . LTI1 TTEpiTT1WOf") avaA~'VEWc.; (VWpiTEpa, 90 txa
1/3 TaU KOTOT8EIIJEVQU TToaou . 01 TTEPIOPIOjJoi aVOKOIVW8'lKOV jJTO: TO KAiOI\..lo TOU XPIl)JO
TlOTrlPfoU Tfl<;: MTTOVYKOK .
METa HIV rrpwTI'l tKTTAr'l~Il, 01 xprllJOrOOIKOVOf,lIKOf avaAuTtr; TTpoEI15oTToffloav all 01TTEPIOPIO~of
eo ~E iwvav Tfl ~~TflOfl Kal eo oO~avov TflV TTPOOCPOPO TWV TTpOS TTlDArlO'1 ~TOXWV . ~t TEAIKO onaTE;
AEO~O T'1V mWo'1 TaU xp '1~mIOT'1piou : 01 TTEPloplOl.loi 0XI ~6vo eo OTTOSappuvav Til; ~tVES ETTEV6u
OEIr; OE ToO.\ov15t~I KO o~16vpaq)O. OTTWr; 01 ~ETo xtr; . oAM ETTlTT.\Eov So UTTOXPEWVOV OE TTwA~ow;
KOTTOIOUr; ~tvoue; ETTEv15uTlKour; OIKOUS 01 oTToiol 15Ev tTTtv15uov Ot XWpEe; ~E ouvaMaV~OTIKoUS TTEpl
VOV TO
oplcr~o0r;.
TIS TTpoomlKts XEIPOTEPEUE KOI TO 6oXrUJo TToAITIKO K.\il.JO: Aoyw TOU TTpoocpaTou TTpa~IKoTTr'l
!JaTOe;. 01 ~tVO I ETTEv6uTte; 6foTO~av va I5Eo}JEuoouv TO xp~J,JOTa TOUr; OTIl xwpa Via tva ETOe;.
01 Kaoo6vl5pEr; TWV ayopwv ETTo'\1l9U TIlKav. 01 ~EToxtr; ETTEOOV ~tXPI KOI 19% Tllv ETT6~EVIl
~tpa, avoYKa~oVTas Tr) I5loiKIlOIl TaU XPlllJOTIOTIlPiou va 1510Ko4Jtl Hl cruvtlSpfaol) Yla TTplinl"\ cpopd
OTI"\V IOTopio TOU .
01 ApxtS T'1e; TaOAavl5'lS. UTTO Trlv TTiEOfl TWV VtYOVOTWV. ovaKoivwcrav all 01 TTEPIOPlcr~of 6EV
SO ioxuav Yla ETTEVlSuOEIe; OE IJEToxte;.
01 OyOPES ETTlKpoTIlcrav ! napa TO ytyovoe; all tYKUPOI TToPOTIlPIlTte;, 6TTWe; 01 Financial Times ,
Eixav ETTl15oKI~ooEI TOUS ovaKolvw6tVTES TTEPIOPIO ~OU S we; Trlv AIYOTEPO KaK~ aTTo MES TIS ETTIAoytS
TWV APXwv TrlS TaOA6v6'lS. KOI TTapaTI TTOPO!J010l TTEPIOPIOJ,Joi Eixov ETTI!3,\"SEi aMoO, f).\tTTETt TO
'encaje' TIlS XIA~S, xwpfS va uTT6p~ouv TETOIEr; TTapEvtpYEIEe;.
H lpwvEfa ( ivOi OTi 01 APXtS TIlS ToOA6v15I1S TTpocrrra8oucrov va TTEPIOpfoouv TIS KEp15oaxoTTl
Kie; Elopatr; KECPO'\ofwv TIS OTTO fEr; TTPOKaAOOOE I) TOX(io ovdmu~'1. 'EvtKO OUTWV, TO v6f,JI0J.l0 TIlS
xwpas, TO baht, (fXE OVOTlJ,JI)8Ei KOla 16% tVOVTI TOU 60Aopiou TO 2006 , TTPOKO.\WVTOS Til 15uo<popia
TWV E~OVWytwv.
OOPElOt, 1tlO TJe;, tTJv 1tEpi1tHOOT} 1ttPOA1)C; 1tf:PLOPlOJlWV JlOVO 01a lOU!l1lKU KtpuAata.
Kat 0" UUT~ T~V 1lEpimwo~ , OfL"", '1 U1!(iVT~O~ OTO lIpouvu'I'Ep9tv EPWTIlfLU Eivat apv~
llK~. KaT ' apx~v, oev dvat KaSoAou oiyoupo 6Tt OL -ouv,;SWS-OlOPLOfLVES alIO TU; 1(0
~EPV~OELS OLOlK~O EU; TWV o~fLooiwv E1I(XElP ~OEWV Kat TpalIESWV So txouv T~V TEXVOYVW
oia ylQ va KUVOUV 10 OWOtO. AKOJlTJ XEtpOtEpa , E{Vat a~tpipOAO on oev ea 1nolW~OUV to
1tpocrOO1tlKO Oq:> EAO<; Ete; papoe; tOU KOtvOOVtKOU ouvoAou.
EmlIAtov, 01 apv~nKts lIpoOOOKiES TWV ayopwv Sa oo~y~oouv OE U'l'~A6TEPO ao'l'o.
Aunpo KlVOUVOU Kal, m9avov, U'VTJAOUpO aotpuAtotpO pruOtOtTJ1at;, Kae61:t AtYOtEPOt ~
llVOUTtS Oa otalIpawum)ovTOl Ta a~16ypCt'l'a KCtl 10 vOfLlOfLa T~S xwpCtS. AUTOs OE 0 Kiv
OUVOS EivaL fLEyaAuTEpos Eo.V 01 UlIOAOl1tES XWPES CtKOAOUSOUV 1I0AmK~ o.pOEWS TWV lIEPl
OPLOfLWV, 6llWS ~TaV 0 KavOvCtS ons Ctpxts T~S OEKaETias TOU 1990. EivCtl 8iJOKOAo va d
Val KCtVEie; ({ Jlaupo 1tp6patO)).
TEAOe;, Ot1tEPlOP10).W( {owe; OEV ivaI to KaAUtEpO JlEOO Y1a tT1V a1tQ(puy~ twv Kp(Of:
lOV. 10w<; f:ivat KaAUtEpa va aVtl)lEtWmotOuv Ot mtlE<; aVtl tlOV OUJl1ttWJlUtoov. rLa n:apa
Of:tYJlu, TJ KaAU1PTJ E1ton:tEia tov XPTJJlatOOlKOvOJltKOU ouot~Jlatoc; Jl1topEi va JlElWOt to.
OTpE~Ao. Kiv~TPCt TWV OTa9EPWV loonf!lwv (PAtlIETE T~V ev6T~Ta 16.5 " EtotKo. etfLaTa").
MIKPOOIKONOMIKH 0EOPHIH, Av oE )laKpOOlKOVOJllK6 n:tn150 e:iVat 15uoKoAo va
KtL)lT}SEi 6.v 10. SEnKO. tOOv ouvaAAaYJlattKoov n:EPlOptOJlWV U1[P1POl)V 1WV apVTJttKWV,
OE fLtKPOOlKOVOfLtK6 ERillEllO EivOl fLaAAOV El>KOAO. Ot OTPE~AWOElS TU; 01lOU:S llPOKCtAOUV
ane; an:Oq:>UOL<; Kat to crXEnKo KOOta<; YLa n<; EmXf:Lp ~Ol<; Kat ta V01KOlCU pla ELVal 0l1)la~
vnKE<;.
KaT' CtPX~v, 0' cruVCtAAaYfLaTtKOi llEplOplOfLo~ Jl TO va llEPLOPU;OUV T~ otaSEOlfLOT~
to. KEq:>aAailOv, avc;avouv to K60to<; 15avtoJloU tWV 1tlXElP~O OOV Kal VOLKOlCUptWV. Mo.
AloTa, 600v a'l'opo. ns E1lt:<pp~OElS, ElI~pEo.SEt lIEPlOOOTEPO n s f!waiou KCtl fLIKPOU fLEYt
8 "Thais put baht under tight capital controls", "Capital controls could preven t baht take~off' ,
"Thai retreat on equity controls after shares dive". To 800 npcino ap9pa 8TUWO'lu91)KOV tllV 19 11
~(K(J.lPp(OU 2006, to trito tllV f:1tOj.levll I)J.lipa.
25
LX0J..t()( X()(t Ema1]p.Q(vaEt~ }..or;6wv EtntQoaOEX'!()(.
eou~
Ot onoiE", tv avn9tol ).lE. ne; ,.u:yUA.t:C;, OEV XOUV OUt lIlv OUVo.tOtlltU anot.puyitc;
llEP10P10llWV (tvOE1u 17.6 KUl 17.7), O\>1E IT] OUVU101T]lU UV1AtioEW, KEq>crAuiwv U1l0
11, OlEOVE~ XPT]IlCllayopi:" crAM O1hE KCll m Ili:ou ytCllT]V olUXdptOT] lOU OUVClAAUYIlUll
KO'; KlVOUVOU (Eq>ClPlloyti 16.1 "dUVWIlO, a "tvo NOlilOIlU"). dcv eXouv, 1IiaT]" 11,
1IOAtllKi:, otuauVoeol, ytu vu 1IWq>AT]SOUV U1IO TOU, 1IP10ptaIlOU, (PA1Il TT]V CV01T]
TU 4.4 "0WlltKO flAUiolO KUl flpClYllClllKa Ellll0KtCl").
To Komo, oavEloliou uu~avE1Ul 1ItPUlli:pW 011, xwpt, 01IOU Ol OUVClAAUYIlClllKO(
llPlOPLOIiOi ouvullapxouv 11 ClVU1wTAOllanKo xpT]llaToOLKoVOIiLKO O"UOTT]lla (cvOTT]Ta
4.4). rUv TOtS aUOL" 11 TT]V a1l0Tp01Iti TWV 1ICVOUO"WV aTO XPT]llanaTtiPLo Kat o"TT]V a
yopa OIlOAOyWV a1Io ~tvou, 1ICVOUT" Ol 0110(01, KaTa Kavova, Xouv KaAUlpT] "XVo
yvwaia, OCV tlILTp i:1l0UV TT]V AlTOUPY(u TT], (<1lttOapx(u, IT], ayopaq>. A1l0Tpt1IOUV, 1Ii
TT]V aVa1ITU~IllWV CVaUUKTlKWV aUTwv llT]Ywv xpT]llaToooniaw" o(vovTa, Tat 11
yaAT] olallpaYllaT!:UnKti OUVUIlT] on, avunoTEAEOIlUTlK, TpallE(E, tvUVTl TWV KamSErWV
Kat nilv oUVt(OlltvwV.
lWV
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vouv 1l0AUTlIlOU, uvOpwmvo~ mipou" Kat IlciAuna ano Kopuq>aia aTtAm TOU" O"TllV
npoa1IoOtta IllWO"too, TOU KO<HOU, TWV 1ItptopLaIlWV. BAtnElt aXl1Ka TO tvOtTO 4.7 "H
AnAeUSepwaT] TOU XPT]IlUTOOlKOvoIiLKoti ruoTtiliuTo, TT], EUao~". H Oe oLaq>Oopa, T]
onoia tXE. l Koaloc; YlO, tlC; E1tlXE1P1l0EtC;, oraotaKO, EnEKtEiVETat Kat a atJ.C; opaOTllPtot'l
tEe; HOV 111XEtp'ftOEWV nEpo.v uurwv Ot onoiE<; crXti~OV'[Ul IlE tOUe; cruVo'AAaY\lUtlKOUC; 1[
PlOPWlloti,.
Ev Koto'KAElOl, Ol OUVnElE<; nov 1tEPI0PIO\lOOV ElVat o'np6pA.1ttE<; KUl
E7tEKtelVOVTOl Of:
OAE, n , OtKOVOlllK, OPUOT T]PlOTT]T" UKOIlT] KUl aUT, 01 01l0(e, OCV t1lT]Pea(OVTUl alit OU
U1l0 UUTOU,. 0 AOyO, t (Vat on Ol otaq>opOt TOllei, TT], OtKOVOIl(U, Kat 01 OIOq>OP, nT]y,
xpT]llaTOoOTtiO"e"" ival OUYKOLvwvouvm Ooxeia.
H empoAti Ka1IOlWV nplOpWIlWV dvat aVOAOYT] 11 TO KAeiallio Ilim; aTpoq>lyya, ae
tvu auVOeTO UOPUUAlKO oUaTT]llu: 'On"" iVUl ouaKoAo VU1IpOPAEq>Sd T] uAAaYti poti, ot
OAOU, TOU, OWAtiVe, TOU ouOTtilluT~, wOw, TO KDKAOq>OpOtiv uypo Oa ava(T]Tei TOU, Ol
aUA-OU e; EAaXlOtllC; avtt(Jtaa{i)~, ivut ouaKoAo va 1tpOPA<p8ouv Kat ot auvbcl~ Kcl1t010U
nptOplOIlOU, wSw, Ot OLKOVOlilKOi llapoYOVTeS Sa OlEpeUVotiv Tponou, llelwaeW, TOU e~
autou
K60'tou~ tou~.
~(K01tO MaxatpO), Kat MCtAlOta nOAl> Ko<ptp6, Ol ouvaAAay ~atlKOi 1tplOplO~oi
17.4 ruvaAAaYllaTIKEC; KpioEIC;
o opo, auvaUaYIlUTlK8, KpioL, uvaq>pTUl aTT]V U1l0 TT]V 1IieaT] TWV yeYOVOTWV aUayti
TT], ouvaU aYllaTlKti, 1tOAlTLKft" 01IW, ulloTillT]OT] KUnOLa, muOt pas lOOTlllia, ti Otrupuv
OT] TOU ttipo~ CVO, targel zone. r tvlKOTepa, avuq>pElat KUl OTllV llltO"T] eni TT], LaOTlIl(~
T] onoia OCV KaT8AT]~e ae Konolo ana ra npoavuq>ep9tvra yeyovora oton 01 APXt, aTtiPl
~av lie elIlTIlxia TT]V lOonllia, eiTe lie 1tapIlPaaT] aTT]v uyopa ouvaUawaTo" eiTe 11 a
vooo TWV e1lLTOKiWv, eiTe 11 KtlnOLO auvouaallo TWV liDo (tvSero 14.9 "flaptIlPaOT] OTT]V
Ayopa rUvaUaYlluTo, "),
flUpOTt OL cv AOyW Kpiol, OCV a1l0TAOUV a"wovo q>UlVOlieVO, pAt1tere Yla napa
oLYlia TT]V unO-tvOTT]ra "H TapaxwoIl, nepiooo, TOU MecronoAEllou, 1919 -1939" aTT]V
cvoTT]ra 13,6, n, TeAeuraie, liDo oKaTie, KaTEaTT]aav Slla UlXIl~'. KaT' apxtiv, au~ti91lK to Mty8o~ nov 1tl1ttwm:wv to'U~ OTllV otKOVOI.llu Kat trlV KO\V{i)via. BAt1tt OXtl
Ktl TO tv9ero 6.7 "To MaKpOXPovLO KooTo, TooV Kpiooov - H Elllltpia TT]S N.A . Ao(a," .
AU~IWT]Ke KUl T] O"uXVOTT]Ta TWV Kp(awv. rUYKeKptlltva, o"TT] OKaT(a tOU 1990 u
1ttlpl;uv tp[u KUMUta tttou.ov Kpfcrcov, Ta o1tOta 1tllPEaaav
uvnTuy~tv~
Kat OV01tTUa
aOIlCV, XWPe, a oAo TOV Koallo: TT]v OLTiu 1992 - 1993, 11 SUliara xwpS - IltAT] TOU
Em (pAtnTe TO tv9'T0 16.3 "George Sores KUl T] KpiOT] TT], rTepAiva, TOV l:t1lTIlPPlO
1992"), TT]v OlET(a 1994 - 1995, Il OUlia TO M~IKO aTT] AaTlVlKft AlltPtKti, KUl TT]V o.tTiu
1997 - 1998 , lie Otillara xwpe, TT], N.A. Aoia,.
26
LXOA(C( XC( E1t(rl1fJ.OtvcrE(\; Mt6wv EUTIQOcrOEXTC(,
EmllAov, X81 auvaolltOnOt11881 Otl Ot (JUVaAAaYllatlKC; Kp(a81C; 8u llupaj..lElvouv

O'l~j(lvnKO
xapaKt'lplOnKO t'lS OIKovO~IKiJS ~wiJS. Ania iVal til olE9VD rrEVOUnKtl K

tptlAata. Xwp(S ta qmoola anD ouvaUay~anKous nplOplo~oti c;, til EV AOY{J) KtptlAata
~EtaK1VOUvtat tax,hatll ano to tva vO~lo~a OTO aUo, O'l~loupy6Jvtas ~YtlAa Ui~~a
til Kat nAOvt'!o~ata OtO 100~tiylO nA'lpw~6Jv twv n'lpll~o~tvwv xwp6Jv Kal avti(HOlX~
nito'l ylll unoti~'lcr'l DaVati~'lcr'l.
I1EV ea npml, O~{J)S, va nlppimtal 'l tu9uv'l Yla ns cruvilllawanKts KpicrIS,
tOuAaXtatov 6XL YLa OAE~, a aUta tU KcpaAata KaL tou~ o18vi~ llvoutC; Ot ono(01 to.
olo.Klvouv. Env 01 Kpiat~ npOKaAOUVtaL uno tl~ YvlKOtp~ KOlVCDVIKE~ KUl mKovollIKt~
ouv9f]KS crE ~ia x6Jpa, on{J)S ouvije{J)S ou~paiV1 Ot'lv npei~'l, 01 pots tWV v AOY{J) Ktpa
Aai{J)v avtllvaKAouv ns umipxouoES nA~potp opiS 01 onoits crUV'lYopouv untp TOU avano
<pEUK'tOU tffiV KpiaCDv. kE autr, tllV 1t8pilltcoall, Ol 81lE;VOUtE~, 01 01l0(m pAnouv j..lllpocrta
Kat llpocrna80uv va opouv 1tplV ta Y)'OVOtU, allAti:l~ E1l1taxUvouv tTlv EAeuatl tou~. Mllv
nupopoAEltE Aomov TOUS aYYAlotpOPOUS, Kat O'l otav npocrtp t pouv Keinola K01VWV1KD u
n~pcria ~E TO va 1UtaxUvouv t~ ADljI'l t{J)v avaYKIl[{J)v ~E Peicr'l O'Kovo~IKn KplTT\pla a
1tOq>CmEWV.
Ev ntlml npmt6JcrEt,
til 9Ewp~nKei unOOEly~ata
Yla t1lv avnAucr'l t{J)v
cruvaAAay~a
tlKlOV KpiaEtOv EvracraOvtaL cr e: OUO KUpiro~ Katl1YOple:~: ta AE'yOj..lEVa U1l00ElYIlata /,1'; ye

1
vea( KUl2 l( ycvea(.9 Ta \.-lEV unOOElY)lata Ifl<; YvEa~ avaAUOuv KpfaE1~ llpOEPXOj..lEVE~ ano
to lao~UYlo tPEXoucr6Jv ouvaUaywv, ta OE unooE[y~ata 2'" YEVEaS an6 to lao~uYlo XP1l

l-latOOlKOVOl-llKOOV a\)VaAAaywv.
To. npwto. avaoElKVuoUV tOY POAO tCDV 9EI-le:AUOWV 01KOVOll1KcOV j..lEYE9tiJv, ta oEutE
pa tOVU;ouv TOV pol.o t{J)V aUtO-EntpEPalOu~tvwv npoaooKlwv unon~TJcrEws. H AOY1Kij

Kal tWV SUo txEl avaAu9d crE 1[pOllyoU~EVa KEtpaAllla: crns EVOt1l"S 2.4 "EUE[~~ata tOU
Iaol;uy[ou TpEXouawv Luvanaywv" Kal 13.4 "TIA1l9wP10~6S Kill MEtapoAts t1lS Ovo~a
onKDS laon~ias" Yla til u1[oo Eiy~ata I'" YEVEt'!S, Kill crta Ktpt'!Allla 14 - 16 Yla til uno
odY~ata 2'" YEVt'!S. Lt1lV Katav01lcr'l t{J)V OEUttpwv pOllet'! nOAu 11 KUKA1Kij AOY1KD tWV
aUTO-EntpEPIllOU~WV 1[POcrOOKtWV unOTl~DOEWS '1lS
EtpawoYTJS 14.9 "Auto
Empplllou~EVES TIpocrOOK[ES y1[On~TJoE{J)S"
Ko\Vo xapaKt'lPlcrTlKO Kill t{J)v Olio E[VIll on xpovoS tllS ouvaUay~anKijs Kp[OEWS
OEV ~1[OpEi va 1[pOpAEtpeEi. Nill ~EV 11 Kpicr1l ~1[OpEl va Eivat avanOtpEUKt'l, on{J)S (na uno
oEiy~ata 1''' YVt'!S, TJ aVa~ EVO~1l {J)S tva a1[O til noUt'! meava anotEAtcrJ.latll, 01[WS
<>ta u1[08E[y~atll 2"' YEVEtlS, aUt'! TO nOtE aKplpws ea ou~pi ~aptt'!tlll ano ns npt'!~IS
t{J)V OIEeVWV rrEVoUTwv, ana Kal a1[6 n s 1[pt'!~ElS tWV Apxwv 01 onois, crt'lv npocrn(z9It'!
tOU~ va arrOtpE\jIOUV to avunoq>euKtO, E1tlTUYXo.vouv va to KaeUatEp~aouv .
.os a1[OttAEo~a, 1tOAuizple~ES E~1tlP1KtS ~EAt"S OEV txouv KatatptpEl va ouvot
oouv TOV xpovo twv Kpicrwv ~t 9~ltA I6JO'l OIKOVO~lKt'! ~yt91l. L KanOltS XWPES 'l Kpi
cr" ouvtP'l Otav Kt'!nOltS OlKOVO~tKtS ~EtaPA'lt ts ~1[tpaoav Kanolo OPIO, OE aUES 'l
Kpio" Kaeucrttp'laE.
To on OEV ~nopd va npopAttpeEi aKplPDS xpOVOS tKO'l AWO{J)S t{J)V Kpicrt{J)v OiVl
AapTJ crE tntKp\t t S tWV 0lt9v6Jv rrEVOUTlKWV KtpaAa[{J)v va ns anoowcrouv crE KEPOOcrKO
nous, napapAtnovtas ns untlpxoucrS aouva~lts t1lS OlKOVO~IKijS nOAltlKTJS Kal n s E~ au
tWV O'l~IOUpY'leticrtS avtcropponiES (pAtnEtt TO aXTJ~a 14 .2). AS ~1lv PlilatEi avayvw
at"s va UlOeEtTJcrl autTJ t'lv anOIjl", X{J)piS auto va a,,~a[vEl on Ot ol9vis ntvoutts El
Vat ayyAOU01W).
Ltl~ rnOj..lvE~ ouo ullo-Ev6tTjtE~ rrapouCJl(i~OvtUl to. pamKa xapo.K1:TlPlcrtlKU nuv

urrooEIYj..lO:tCDV 1% KaL 2Tl~ YvEa~. AKoAou8 El Ilia crUV9ECJTj HOV unoOElYj..llltWV, Tl onoia 0.
VaOlKVU1 "'lV xp"crl~Ot"W a~tpotpWV at'lv KaWvO"a'l t{J)V ouvaUawatlKWV Kpio

CDV. TEAo~, avaAUEtat to 8Ej..lU teDV OlOUj..lCDV Kp{crECDV , croVaAAUYj..latlKcOV Kat tpU1[E~t
KeDV.
To ICtiPlO ap9po y\O. to. unooti'YI-lutO, }'Il; YL"Vac; dvat "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises",
by Paul Krugman , Journal olMoney, Credit and Banking, Vol. II , No.3, pp. 31 1 - 325, 1979. ria
to. U1toot lyj..lata 2'1~ycvt6:C;, to ap9po ** .
27
LXOAl()( X()(l E1tla1j[.locvaEl<'; Aa6wv EU1l(?OaOEx't()(.
KUQVnQEIC Xou!Jatayoq:c & MlXgOOlXOVOjJta;
KEt.prlA.o:IO 17
YTTo6EiYIloro 1"< rEvEa~ - 0 P6AO~ rwv 0EIlEAlw6wv OIKovolllKWV MEYE

8wv.
H YEVf:OLOUP'Y6~ onto trov KPlO'l~roV crto unoliEiYJloto J I}c:; YtvE6.~ ElVat 11 onp09UJllO twv
nol.ltIK~ ~ anoio EivOl auI'POT~ I'E T~ OtOT~p~a~ T~S aT08Epas
laotll'ios
Mio TtTOtO lIol.tT1~ 1'1I0PEl VO ExEt 1I0HtS lIopoHoytS. LTO lIpoovo'l'Ep8Ev u1I6
OElYI'O TOU Krugman (1979), Ot ApXtS OKOAou80tiv ElIEKmTlK~ O~I'OalOVOl'l~ 1I0l.tnK~ ~
olIoio O~l'lOupyEi tHEtl'l'o aTO laol;tiylO TpExouawv auvoUoywv (pl.rnETE axenKo. TO
aevciplo I'E TO UlIOOElYI'0m IS/LM KOl Mundell-Fleming aTa KEq>o.AOlO 10, IS KOl 16).
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auvol.l.ayI'OnK~ laotll'io (pl.tnETE TO Ev8ETO 5.3 "Exchange-rate-based Stabilization
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va ultoaTmiv 1tiS8a~ AOym contagion, oltm<; ~ Kop Ea aTO o!:liTpo !:E,a~~vo TOU 1997, ~!:
Ta T~V uROTi~~a~ TOU vo~ia~aTo<; T~<; TaijAavo~<;. A Ha Kal 01 ~l:'(aAI:<; xwp<; OI:V EiVat
aTpmTI:<;. B AtRET TO ltapaoly~a TOU H.B. TOV L1tTE ~PplO 1992 (EvSETO 16.3).
TIaVTW<;, ~ia xwpa ~ laxupa S~Alwo~ OIKovo~IKa ~I:Y ES~, 6Rms raxEia aV I<1TTuE,~ ,
U\1'~Ati altaax6A~a~ Kal EU\\I'~ ~aKpooIKOVO~IKWV aVlaoppomwv, OI:V (Vat uaAm~ a
KpOOaK01tlKE<; 1tISEal:l<;. EivUt avaAoyo "']<; alta1p1tttKti<; taxuo<; 1:V6<; a1palOti. H xwpa
~ aE,to~axa Kat alta'l'aata~a a1pa10, alt01pEltl T~ o~~tOupy(a ltpOaoOKtWV u1tOxmpti
O'OO ~ Kat, OUO'laaTlKO:, an:orpE:n:1 tl~ 1!l8tO'u; tl n <; a7tv..t<; roov YlT6vwv tTl<;.
Kar' flvflAoyia, ~la KUPtpvll<J1l '1 on:oia ava~tvral va un:pamuO'tEl !fIV laOtl~(a )1
0'8tvo~ Kat a1tOrAO'lla!LKOrllra, )1O:AAOV c5EV Sa XP ElacHi 1tOre va ro Kavl KaS on 0\
Kpc5oO'K01tOt OEV Sa 'WA)1tlO'OUV va E1ttrSouv. Dpo<; r ouro a1talTElral va tXEl rllv 1tOAlTlKtl
Kal OIKOVO~IKti ouvaT6T~ra va Aap, ~ETpa ra oRoia au~ptPai;ouv n <; pOE<; RI:VOUnKWV
K'I'aAaimv ~I: 1~V otaTtip~a~ TI]<; araSl:p a<; taan~ia<;, R.X., T~V atiE,~a~ TmV 1tnoKimv
orav U7tapxOUV EKpOt<; KE<paAaiCDV, Kat W:iOOm1 tOU~ orav un:o:PXouv tcrpOf:~.
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savTA~~ TWV auvaAAay~anKwv aRoSE~aTmv.
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xwpa. 01 ApXt<; RPERE< va Rapa~EvOUv Ravra aE Eyptiyopa~. Kan TO OltOlo OI:V Eivat u
KoAo. ERl1tUOV, OI:V Eival RavTOTE ltOAtHKa E'I'tKTti ~ aAAayti ~ia<; Em,"x~~~<; OlKOVO
~tKti<; llOAlTtKti<; ~E T~V ltpoaooKia on ~ xwpa (am<; KaraaTet EuaAmT~ aE KEpOOaK01ttKti
I:lti8Ea~ AOym Tau ~ErapaUO ~Evau O\Svou<; OlKOVO~tKati KAi~aTa<;.
Tphov, xmpi<; aua~poti<; Kat altOTEAEaflanKOu<; auvaU awaTlKOu<; REplOpta~o1i<;; ~
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E1tIStaEVl<;: Ot KEpooaKOROt, 6Rm<; 0 George Soros (EvSETO 16.3), ~ltopmiv va KI~TOltOI'
tiaouv oK<ioE<; Ot, ooAapta.
KaravawvTa<; aUTO. ra otOily~ara, ROAAa( ~EAEr~TE<; RpoTEivauv 6n at ~tKpt<; XWPE<;
7tP1tEl va uno<j>uyouv ru evo tallO'U aUO'!11JlUtU O'uvaAAuYllfltlKWV 10'0!1.JlIWV Kal va 1!l
AEE,ouv hl: ({(JKA~pt9) araSpt<; taon~(<;, oRm, ow RAaiala KaROta, vo~ta~anKti, I:V",'
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auv TOt<; aAAot<;, T~ o~~tOupy(a altaaTaSEpaltat~nKwv RpoaoaKtwV (PAtRErE T~V 1:V6T~ra
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OaaKOlttKt<; EmStaEl, OI:V iva< EK TOU a(J(paAoti, (EvSETO 16.2). Ka< ~E n <; otio, Ot <epoo,
OK01tot c5EV ex.ouv KivIlrpo vu 87t1!80uv.
01 'l>.iijull[~' Kpia[l~ - TpaTT[~IKi~ & ruvaMaYllaTlKi~.
*** Kevo ***

'Ev8TO 17.8. 'Contractiona
naT! 'l
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TTI9av6v va
Devaluations'
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15.
Contractionary devaluations due to balance sheet effects . Bordo (NBER, 2003). pp. 11-12
31
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, 1

: Lindgren et al. (1996).

2001 , (), 2000 2001, 2002 .

The Economist, 27 2001, Going downhill.

: , Human Development Report 2007, . 229.

: International Financial Statistics.

: International Financial Statistics.

, Croushore Stark (2000),

GNP = GDP + NFI

GDP GNP 2.6. ,

GNP = GDP + NFI

CA < 0 C + I + G > GNP DD > GNP

CA > 0 C + I + G < GNP DD < GNP

NAPt +1 = NAPt + CAt

NAPt +1 = NAPt +1 NAPt = CAt

: International Financial Statistics.

: International Financial Statistics.

Feldstein Horioka Puzzle

: International Financial Statistics.

Gross Domestic Product

Foreign Direct Investment

Final Domestic Demand

: International Financial Statistics.

Moodys Fitch IBCA.

: International Financial Statistics.

P2006 P2005 213 200

100 ( [3.1]), 2006 = 6,5%.

0 < t+1 < t.

. , . 3.2, 0,2% ( = 0,002) , 2,4%,

, (Consumer Price Index CPI)

Pt +1 = (1 + t +1) Pt = (1 + 0,1) * 100 /" "= 110 /" "

(GDP Implicit Price Deflator).

1.000NV 2005 2.500NV 2006

4) m/m,ar t: AR,t = (1 + t )12 1 , t .

6) m/m,saar t: SAAR ,t = (1 + SA,t )12 1 . (4), .

, The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices:

(DD) = (C) + () + (G).

: International Financial Statistics.

. Etrt+1 iD,t Ett+1,

t+1 Ett+1 , , rt+1 Etrt+1.

, t+1 > Ett+1, .

t+1 > tt+1 rt+1 < trt+1

t+1 < tt+1 rt+1 > trt+1

,t+1 = 0,8* t E t t+1 = t E t r t+1 = r i t = r + E t t+1 r t+1

rt+1 = r + Ett+1 t+1

Financial Times, 9 2004

t 0,2*YN,t = 0,2*1000 = 200. 0,2*YN,t+1 =

= 0,5*rH + 0,5*rL = r d + RP > r d

= (1 + 0,03) 1000 = 1030

, At+1 = (1+it)*At, , Utopia ,

) (foreign exchange premium). Utopia ,

(1 + it) + (1 )*0 = (1 + it)

[%], 1978 1984

: International Financial Statistics.

: International Financial Statistics.

Recessions and Recoveries, chapter 3,

Recessions and Recoveries, .....

World Economic Outlook 2002. !

1881 1913 1919 1938 1950 1972 1973 2000

Cross-Country Evidence of the Link Between Volatility and

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

: International Financial Statistics.

t 0,2YN,t = 0,21000 = 200. 0,2*YN,t+1 =

= 0,5rH + 0,5rL = r d + RP > r d

[0,8(1 0,25)0,10,25 = [0,8(1 0,25)- 0,1]0,25 = [0,8*(1

= tYE = 0,25102 = 25,5

= tY = 0,25102 = 25,5

Md/P = 0,25100 0,510

Md/P = 0,2590 0,55

Md/P = 0,25100 0,55

M d / P| = kY hiA = 0,25100 0,55 = 22,5 > 20 = M / P