--

2557


National Library of Thailand Cataloging in Publication Data
.
-- : .-- :
, 2557.
114 .
1. ----. I. .
382.959304
ISBN 978-974-466-724-3
1 2557
--:

(Russia/Eastern Europe Watch)

443 10400

2 10200
. 0-2613-2316

[5703-141/400]
10330
. 0-2215-3612, 0-2218-3563, 0-2218-3549-50
http://www.cuprint.chula.ac.th

(Russia/
Eastern Europe Watch)

(public diplomacy)

(emerging markets)



3

..
..

Russia / Eastern Europe Watch

1 :

2

--:

31

65

1.

(Russia/Eastern
Europe Watch)

(1)

(2) Visegrd Group


(3)
-

(4)


(5)

1980
()

ii

(semidemocracy) Nations in Transit 2012 Freedom House

(
1)1

1

Freedom House, Nations in Transit 2012: Democratization from Central

Europe to Eurasia (New York: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, 2012).

 iii

(hybrid
regimes)

1: ( .. 2012)
(Consolidated Democracies)
(1.00-2.99)

1.89

1.93

2.11

2.14

2.18

2.29

2.50

2.86
(Semi-Consolidated Democracies)
(3.00-3.99)

3.14

3.43

3.61

3.64

3.82

3.89

iv

1: ( .. 2012) ()
(Hybrid Regimes) (4.00-4.99)

(Semi-Consolidated
Authoritarian Regimes) (5.00-5.99)

(Consolidated Authoritarian
Regimes) (6.00-7.00)

4.14
4.36
4.82
4.82
4.89
5.18
5.39
6.00
6.18
6.18
6.54
6.57
6.68
6.93
6.93

: 1 7 1
7
: Freedom House (2012)

emerging markets/ economies

( 2)

2
2

,
:
, ,
(.), 2551; ,
-
(), ,
, 2552.

 2: (2012)

GDP

GDP
GDP

()
()
()
()
()
()

3.4
12,700
8.5
29
22
51,416

1.8
12,660
2.5
46
46
2,970

-1.3
18,130
1.5
78
73
10,581

2
17,180
1.4
96
91
3,658

-1.7
12,370
3.1
95
87
8,494

-2.5
22,810
0.3
76
71
-10

0.4
8,150
5.2
40
45
2,557

0.8
6,870
2.2
67
70
2,046

-2
13,290
2.1
43
43
1,275

-1.7
5,280
5.5
38
54
2,700
-
-0.7
4,650
1.8
44
67
633

0.5
6,940
2.3
40
66
558

-0.3
4,700
0.4
53
76
325

0.3
3,500
7.9
51
59
7,207

6.4
2,250
0.3
44
84
169

1.5
6,530
74.8
82
77
1,442

4.5
6,030
-0.7
51
23
5,293

7.1
3,720
-1.6
24
49
489

6
3,280
1.3
38
58
788

2.2
10,830
6.8
26
32
12,555
: World Development Indicators database, available at http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/country-profiles

()
143.53
38.54
10.51
5.41
9.94
2.06
21.33
7.3
4.27
7.22
3.83
0.62
2.11
45.59
3.56
9.46
9.3
2.97
4.51
74

vi

 vii

(Russia/Eastern Europe Watch)

(1)
-


(2)

(3)


(public diplomacy)

(4)
soft diplomacy

viii

2.

?
3 (1)
(2)
(3)

 ix

-

-

- ( -)
(
)

-
(
) ()

-
(economic liberalization/ openness)

-





- (stakeholders)

- ()

-
( )

-

-

(
)


-

- ()

-
(

(soft power) (smart power)
)

 xi

3:

1.

-
-

-

()
-

2.

3.

(proceedings)

(policy recommendation)

3.

(1) (2)
(3)


5

xii

(1)

(2)



(2.1) IMF,
World Bank, CIA, Eurostat
(2.2) (
)
(2.3)


(3)

(4)

(5) (proceedings)
(policy
recommendation)

 xiii

4.

(ends) (means)
(strategy)
(the calculated
relationship of ends and means) 3

(1)
(states in transit)



3

John Lewis Gaddis, Strategies of Containment, Revised and Expanded

Edition (2005), 271.

xiv

(hybrid system)
(semi-democracy)
(semi-liberalism)
(laggards)

4

Ivan T. Berend, From the Soviet Bloc to the European Union: The
Economic and Social Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe since
1973 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2009); Jan Drahokoupil,
Globalization and the State in Central and Eastern Europe (London and
New York: Routledge, 2009).

 xv

(informality)

(2)
(resource-abundant countries)
(export-oriented countries)

(3)

(overlapping and intense domestic challenges and conflicts)



(transnational
issues)


(4)
(a search for international recognition)

xvi

(5)

(norms promoters)
(norms dissenters)

smart power 5
Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Harvard


(hard power) (soft power)
(preferred
outcomes)
5

Joseph S. Nye, Jr., The Future of Power (New York: Public Affairs, 2011).

 xvii

(1) (network diplomacy)

xviii

(2) (informal diplomacy)

Vladimir Putin Siloviki
(Silovarch)
KGB
(St. Petersburger)

6
Putin Yuri Kovalchuk

Richard Sakwa, The Crisis of Russian Democracy: The Dual State,

Factionalism and the Medvedev Succession (Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press, 2011).

 xix

(3) (leader-to-leader diplomacy)

George W. Bush Vladimir Putin

.. 2000-2003 Barack Obama Dmitri Medvedev
.. 2008-2012

(Presidential Commission)
Obama Medvedev

(4) (integrated diplomacy)

xx

(5) (non-normative diplomacy)




(norms promoters)
(norms dissenters)

(6) (public diplomacy)

5.

 xxi

( 4)

(1)
( 2556)

(2) - 1
( 2556)

(3)
1 ( 2556)
4:

1.

2.

3.

4.

(proceedings)

2556

2556

2556

2557

xxii

(proceedings)

()
(policy recommendation)
300



( 5)
5:
(input)

(output)
-
-

(policy outcome)
-

 1
:

1.

(The Balkans)

(Southeast Europe: SEE)


(Western Balkans: WB)
1 2
1

17 2008

( 2013)
106

193
54.9
23 (
)
2013

--:

60 ( ..
2012)

4
(EU)


(Western Balkans)

(NATO)


7
(WTO)

2.

--:

1989
4


1989-1990
COMECON (Council for Mutual
Economic Assistance: CMEA)






1991 5

(
)

10

1990

--:

5
(1991) (1990-1991)
(1992-95) (1998-99) (2001)

()

(delayed
capitalism)

--:

(early reformers)


(late reformers)

( )
2000-2001
3 State Union
of Serbia and Montenegro 4 2003
2006
2008

2001

(EU)
(2004)
(2007) (2013)

William Barlett, Europes Troubled Region: Economic Development,

Institutional Reform and Social Welfare in the Western Balkans (London
and New York: Routledge, 2008).

--:

()

2000

3.

2001
4

Richard Whitman, and Ana Juncos, Stasis in Status: Relations with the
Wider Europe, Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol. 51 (2013), p. 156.

--:

( )
(
) 5

2000


(1)



(2)
1990



6
5
6

European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) (2009).

Will Barlett, and Milica Uvalic, eds., The Social Consequences of
the Global Economic Crisis in South East Europe (London: London School
of Economics and Political Science Research on South Eastern Europe
(LSEE), 2013).

--:
1: GDP ()

: World Development Indicators database < http://data.world

bank.org/data-catalog/country-profiles>

(3)
1990

1992 7


7

1992 (IMF)
pyramid schemes

1997 1999 Ivan T. Berend, From
Soviet Bloc to the European Union (Cambridge: Cambridge University
Press, 2009), pp. 80-81.

--:

() ( )

currency board 8
2:

Lek (
)

1992- Lek

1992-1996 BiH Dinar, new BiH Dinar,

Croatian Dinar ( Kuna),

Republika Srpska Dinar
Yugoslav Dinar
BiH Dinar 1994
Currency board
1997- Marka

1990-1991

Milica Uvalic, Transition in Southeast Europe: Understanding Economic

Development and Institutional Change, Working Paper No. 2010/41, World
Institute for Development Economics Research, United Nations University
(UNU-WIDER), May 2010, p. 9.

10

--:

2:
()

1992-1993 Croatian Dinar ( Kuna)

1993- Kuna

1992-1995
Macedonian Dinar

1995- Macedonian Dinar (

)

1992-2000 Yugoslav Dinar

2000-
Euroization
1998-
Euroization
1999-

: Uvalic 2010, 6.

(4) 2001

( )

--:

11

9



3: GDP ()

: World Development Indicators database < http://data.world

bank.org/data-catalog/country-profiles>

Milica Uvalic, Transition in Southeast Europe: Understanding Economic

Development and Institutional Change, Working Paper No. 2010/41, World
Institute for Development Economics Research, United Nations University
(UNU-WIDER), May 2010, p. 14.

12

--:
4: GDP ()

: World Development Indicators database < http://data.world

bank.org/data-catalog/country-profiles>

(5)



45 31
28 2310

(6) (Foreign
Direct Investment: FDI)

10 Saul

Estrin and Milica Uvalic, Foreign Direct Investment into Transition

Economies: Are the Balkans Different? LSE Europe in Question Discussion
Paper Series (LEQS), No. 64/ 2013, July 2013, p. 36.

--:

13

2000

14

--:

5: ()

: World Development Indicators database < http://data.world

bank.org/data-catalog/country-profiles>
6:
(2012)

5
()
(27.4) (15.2) (13.7) (10.6) (10.6)
(19.7) (18) (14.1) (11.2) (9.6)

(21.9) (16.5) (7.7) (6.6)

(5.7)
(21.2) (13.9) (13.7) (8.6)
(5.4)
(16.5) (12.9) (12.4) (11.1) (10.3)
(15.4) (11.8) (9) (8.4) (8.2)

(20.7) (17.8) (12.2) (8.3) (5.7)

(17.1) (10.1) (9.6) (9.1) (8.4)

: Estrin and Uvalic 2013, 24.

--:

15

(7)
1999
(Stabilization and Association Process: SAP)

(Stabilization and Association

Agreements: SAA) ( 7)

(Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe)
1999
7:

9 2001
29 2001
12 2006
15 2007
29 2008
16 2008

: Milica Uvalic 2010, p. 21.

1 2004
1 2005
1 2009

16

--:

4.

4.1

Pan-European Corridor

: Durres Strait of Otranto

: Varna Burgas

:
Rijeka

:
(transportation corridor)

--:

17

: Koper

: Constanta
1 10
2
( Pan-European
Corridor IV )
(Pan-European Corridor VII)

Rotterdam 3,400
20

18

--:

4.2

:


:


:

:


:


:

: ()

--:

19

4.3

98

20

--:

--:

21

:

(Flat Rate)

22

--:

:







80

--:

23

4.4 -

78
2012 129
156 176
181 184 186

24

--:
8: - ()

:







:

--:

25

:









:

:






:

26

--:

:
2556

:




:

--:

27

5.



(
Constanta Koper
Rijeka ) ( Pan-European Corridor)

FDI GDP




3 (1)
(2) ()
(3)

28

--:

6.







11

11 Christopher

Cviic, and Peter Sanfey, In Search of the Balkan Recovery:

The Political and Economic Reemergence of South-Eastern Europe
(New York: Columbia University Press, 2010), p. 124. Saul Estrin
and Milica Uvalic, Foreign Direct Investment into Transition Economies:
Are the Balkans Different? LSE Europe in Question Discussion Paper
Series (LEQS), No. 64/ 2013, July 2013.

--:

29

--:

9 .. 2556
13.00-16.00 .


9 2556
(Russia/Eastern Europe Watch)

1. 3

1.1

32

--:

1.2





-- :

1.3




NATO


1.4


2008

--:

33

1.5



JAT Yugoslavia

2.

2.1 Russia/
Eastern Europe Watch


Western Balkans

(
)



Pan-European Corridor

34

--:

()

1990



5

()
2001

--:

35

4
2004 2007 2013



EU
EU

(1)
?
(2)

(3)

2.2 .
:
?

36

--:

?









-

3






(census)

--:

37

200,000-300,000 100
10 100
1 1999
11






Slobodan Milosevic 1990



EU

38

--:

1993-1995

2

2 1991-1992
2


1991-1992

--:

39

2.3

:
2 EU (Europeanization)
US (Americanization) EU US

EU

Hobbesian

EU Western Balkan
Europeanization


Convergence Criteria
Europeanization
Europeanization







Stabilization and Association
Process

40

--:

Stabilization and Association Process
2007-2013 Instrumental Pre-accession Assistance (IPA)
EU
people-to-people contract
60 35 EU

EU EU
WTO

EU

EU

Partnership
EU
EU
(one way)

--:

41

US
NATO

burden sharing






EU



78 2012 129
156 176
181 184 186

-
(emerging market)

complementary




(state-owned enterprises)

42

--:

(weak governance)

WTO EU


(FDI)
FDI

(Image problem)

2.4 : FDI
1990



FDI

--:

43

2001


















45 31
28 23

44

--:

2.5 : demandsupply

(land locked)

paper work




access


(privatization) EU

--:

45

transaction

3.

3.1 (
): 78
Market share 0.016
62 15

46

--:

WTO 4
2000
2003 2012
SWOT

(trade agreement)
FTA

Joint trade
FTA EU
EU EU

3.2 (BOI):

FTA

: FTA



2

--:

47

:


:

80-90




8
10

19
EU 6.5 GDP

2-3
2-3

:


Priority
Priority

48

--:

: EU


1


Europeanization

3.3 :









sector


3.4 (
):

--:

49

Business
matching distributor

SMEs

priority
EU EU



.


Greenfield investment

50

--:

G2G

two way
win-win
win

EU

CLMV

: G2G
(Account trade)


3.5 ():

2





2

--:

51

IFC ADP

.


4
EU
EU

3.6 :
(
Exim Bank)

3.7 :

EU

52

--:

3 (1)

(2)

(3)

--:

53

3.8 ( 1 ):
EU
2020
EU SAA(Stabilization and Association
Agreements)

IPR


EU
EU
EU EU
(Engagement) EU

.
EU

54

--:

EU Trans European
Network
convertibility
EU




EU EU-Thai FTA

SMEs

Europeanization
EU 2004, 2007 2013

--:

55

3.9 (
):


30

:



... :

56

--:

3.10 (
): SMEs
Proactive

10-15

B2B Matching

3.11 :


SMEs
SMEs Proactive Business Matching
pre-work


working team

:
business matching


Matching

--:

57

:
Matching



3.12 :
4 (
)








30-40

UN

58

--:

3.13 ( 3 ):



road show



. profile
Spring Festival

--:

59

B2B









(Podgorica)

Partner

connection
connection
connection

60

--:

:




renew

3.14 :




(Medical tourism)

(MOU)

MOU
2 2 2

--:

61

4.

4.1 :

(1)

(2)



(Network Diplomacy)


governance
Network diplomacy

(3)

62

--:

G2G B2B

Medical tourism
(4)

FDI GDP

--:

63

EU

(5)



EU 2004

(6)

3 -

64

--:

28

***************

14 2556

(The Balkans)
(Southeast Europe: SEE)

1990

78 .. 2012
129 156
176 181 184
186

66

--:

3 (1)
(2) ()
(3)

--:

67

1.

2.

3.

68

--:

4.


(one-stop service center)