CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

4.1. C s l thuyt
4.1.1 Nguyn tc d bo:
p ng mc ch, cc yu cu ca cng tc d bo khi lng vn ti
phc v cho cng tc quy hoch, vic d bo khi lng vn ti phi tun th cc
nguyn tc sau:
Tnh y : Ton b nhu cu vn chuyn hnh khch, hng ho trn tng
tuyn ng, tng loi phng thc vn ti n phn chia khu vc quy hoch thnh
nhng tiu vng theo tnh cht hng ho vn chuyn. Trong mi tiu vng: sn xut
v tiu th, ch i v ch n; nhu cu vn chuyn hnh khch i, n tng tiu
vng trong khu vc quy hoch.
Tnh tin cy cao: Mc chi tit, c c s khoa hc. Phn tch lung hng,
lung hnh khch hin ti n quy lut din bin. Phng php trc tip tnh ton,
ti liu bo co thng k, ti liu quy hoch pht trin ca ngnh. D bo khi
lng vn chuyn hng ho: d bo sn xut v tiu th ca cc c s sn xut, cc
cm dn c n d bo nhu cu vn chuyn.
Nguyn tc lin h bin chng: Tnh h thng, nhng nhn t nh hng
ng thi: xem xt chng trong mi lin h ca cc i tng xung quanh, d bo
khi lng hng ho v hnh khch vn chuyn cho tng phng thc vn ti n
cc quy lut gi tr, quy lut cnh tranh, quy lut cung cu nhng chnh sch iu
tit nn kinh t ca Nh nc. Nhng nhn t nh hng n s la chn phng
thc vn ti tron iu kin hin nay l: Thi gian vn chuyn, chi ph vn chuyn,
mc tin cy, mc c ng v an ton trong vn chuyn, cht lng phc v,
ngoi ra cn phi k n tm l v thi quen ca ngi s dng.
Nguyn tc k tha: Trc khi d bo cn tin hnh iu tra kinh t, lng
hng vn chuyn qu kh, hin ti tm ra quy lut din bin khi lng vn chuyn.
Da vo quy lut din bin ca thi k qu kh v cc yu t tc ng n khi

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lng vn chuyn d on ra quy lut din bin ca thi k tng lai tin hnh
d bo khi lng vn chuyn tng lai.
Nguyn tc c th v bn cht ca i tng: Xem xt n nhng nt
ring bit, c th ring s to ra nhng gii hn nht nh xu hng din bin ca
i tng d bo trong tng lai. Nh d bo nhu cu i li ca dn c trong khu
vc cn phi xt n: thnh phn dn c, la tui, ngh nghip, trnh vn ho,
mc thu nhp ...nh hng rt nhiu n s ln i li bnh qun, nhu cu s dng
phng tin vn ti v cht lng phc v vn ti.
4.1.2 Cc m hnh d bo
M hnh n hi: Phng php ny da trn lin h gia t l tng trng
ca mt bin s ( giao thng,..) vi t l tng trng ca mt bin khc ( GDP,..)
da trn nhng gi thit tng i tin cy. H s n hi c dng:
Phng php m hnh n hi tng qut:
y giao thng = c + m1 * x1 + m2 * x2 + m3 * x3

... Sp s c :

y giao thng = x1 * m1 + x2 * m2 + x3 * m3

... (+ x1 * x2 *

x3 )
x1, x2 , x3

cc nhn t: GDP, dn c th, dn c nng thn

m1, m2 , m3 cc h s n hi ca giao thng so vi GDP, dn c

th, dn c nng thn
D bo theo Phng php xu hng:
Bc 1: Da trn s liu thng k thu thp c tm quy lut din bin v
khi lng vn chuyn ca thi k va qua, bng cc phng php tnh ton...
Bc 2: Phn tch so snh nhng c im v vn chuyn, tnh hnh pht
trin kinh t x hi trong khu vc tc ng n s bin ng khi lng vn
chuyn i, (hoc n) tng lai d on ra quy lut din bin v khi lng vn
chuyn i, n tng lai.

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Bc 3: Da vo quy lut din bin v nhu cu vn chuyn i, n khu vc

thi k tng lai tnh ton d bo ra khi lng vn chuyn i, n nhng nm
tng lai (nm d bo).
Cc phng php thng k xu hng thng c s dng trong d bo
nhu cu vn chuyn:

Phng php th pht trin

Phng php phn tch tc tng trng

Phng php ng hi quy xu hng

Phng php chuyn gia: Ly kin chuyn gia trong lnh vc chuyn

ngnh & phn tch, tng hp cc kin ny c c d bo cn thit. Trnh t

tin hnh:
1. Xc nh mc ch, nhim v, ni dung v i tng d bo.
2. Tp hp nhm chuyn gia t tiu chun quy m v c cu: nn chn 1025 ngi mc thng tin...
3. Son tho, cung cp h thng cu hi, cung cp thng tin c lin quan:
bn khu vc, cc thng tin kinh t x hi lin quan c c s php l, c s
khoa hc nht nh. Trc tip gp v ly kin, vd: amax v amin
4. Thu thp, x l v phn tch thng k cc cu tr li: X l s liu thng
k, xc sut, kim nh cc gi thit thng k...
5. Thng tin ngc cho tp th chuyn gia v kt qu x l vng mt. nh
hng & cung cp tip cc thng tin c lin quan
6. Tng hp x l tip cc cu tr li theo tiu chun xc xut thng k.
nh gi phn tn.
7. Kt lun d bo nu nht tr cao, (chuyn lp li nu cn tn mn)
4.1.3 M hnh d bo nhu cu giao thng 4 bc
M hnh phn tch nhu cu i li u tin pht trin vo nhng nm 1950
nh l mt cng c tin tin ca quy hoch giao thng.

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Phn tch, d bo nhu cu i li c s dng pht trin thng tin tr

gip vic ra quyt nh pht trin v qun l h thng giao thng, c bit l giao
thng th.
Quy trnh ny bao gm bn bc:
1. Pht sinh hnh trnh (Trip generation Hnh trnh xut pht u?)
2. Phn phi hnh trnh, (Trip distribution - Hnh trnh i n u)
3. Phng thc phn chia (Modal split Loi m hnh no c s dng,
phng tin giao thng c nhn hoc phng tin giao thng cng cng).
4. n nh mng li (Traffic assignment Tuyn ng no c s dng
vi mi loi m hnh).

Hnh 4.1 Quy trnh, d bo phn tch nhu cu i li theo m hnh 4 bc

Quy trnh bn bc ny s dng nhng m hnh ton hc c lp khc nhau
cho mi hp phn ca quy trnh. Kt qu ca bc ny thng l d liu u vo
gii quyt cc bc tip theo.
Sau y trnh by tng bc c th:
Bc 1. Pht sinh hnh trnh (Trip generation)
M hnh pht sinh hnh trnh d bo v xc nh s lng lt i li xut
pht trong vng phn tch (mc tng th), lt i li ca h gia nh (mc c
th) hoc nhng nhm tng ng.
Mc ch ca bc ny nhm xc nh s chuyn i pht sinh ca tng
vng trong khu vc nghin cu. S chuyn i ca tng vng ph thuc vo c
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im s dng t v cc c im kinh t x hi ca ngi s dng giao thng cng

nh cc yu t khc c lin quan n giao thng vn ti.
Trip Generation: Phn loi theo lc ch chuyn i gm 2 loi chnh l HB
(Home Based) v NHB (Non_Home Based).
Trong HB phn theo nhng loi sau:

Chuyn i cng vic ( gia Nh v Ni lm vic)

Chuyn i nh v trng hc ( bao gm c trng i hc, Cao ng,..)

Mua sm

X hi v gii tr

Chuyn i a n

Chuyn i khc
Vi 2 chuyn i u ( Chuyn i vi mc ch cng vic gia Nh v Ni

lm vic, chuyn i gia Nh v Trng hc) l chuyn i bt buc trong phn tch
chuyn i. Chuyn i cui cng (Chuyn i khc) t c la chn hn: i bnh
vin, i khm bnh, chuyn i lm nhng khng n ni lm vic. Ty thuc vo
c im ca khu vc, vn ha v x hi c th nh hng n vic phn chia
chuyn i.
Chuyn i NHB c th chia bng hai loi chnh: i cng vic v khc. i
cng vic t cng ty n cng ty. Cc chuyn i ny u khng lin quan n Nh.
Cc yu t nh hng n pht sinh chuyn i:
Pht sinh chuyn i c nhn (Productions): Nhng yu t chnh nh hng
n pht sinh chuyn i nh:

S hu xe t v xe my

Quy m h gia nh

Kch c h gia nh

Tnh cht khu vc(KCN,KDC)

Mt c tr

Kh nng tip cn

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Vi 4 yu t u c xem xt, nghin cu trong cc nghin cu v pht

sinh chuyn i h gia nh, trong khi cc yu t khc lin quan n cc nghin cu
pht sinh chuyn i ca khu vc, yu t cui t c dng.
Thu ht chuyn i c nhn ( Attractions)
Yu t lin quan, quan trng nht l din tch cc KCN, khu vui
chiNgoi ra cn 1 s yu t khc cng nh hng.

Hnh 4.2 nh ngha chuyn i theo mc ch

Hnh 4.3 Pht sinh v hp dn hnh trnh

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Ngun: Bi ging ca Cube Citilas

Hai phng php truyn thng l phn tch phn loi cho v phn tch hi
quy. Trong n ny s dng phng php hi quy tnh ton.
Phng php phn tch hi qui (Regression analysis):
Phn tch hi qui l phng php thng k m gi tr trung bnh (mean) ca
mt hay nhiu bin ngu nhin l c d on da vo iu kin ca cc bin
ngu nhin ( tnh ton) khc. C th, c hi qui tuyn tnh, hi qui lgic, hi qui
Poisson v hc c gim st. Phn tch hi qui khng ch l trng khp ng cong
(la chn mt ng cong m va khp nht vi mt tp im d liu); n cn phi
trng khp vi mt m hnh vi cc thnh phn ngu nhin v xc nh
(deterministic and stochastic components). Thnh phn xc nh c gi l b d
on (predictor) v thnh phn ngu nhin c gi l phn sai s (error term).
Mt hm hi quy tng qut nh sau:
Yi = ai + 1X1 + 2X2 + + nXn + i
Trong :
Yi l s hnh trnh pht sinh ra trong vng i.
ai l s thc.
1. n l h s hi quy.
X1Xn l bin s ngu nhin (cc bin s i din cho mt yu t nh
hng n s lt i li v d nh dn s, h gia nh
i l h s hiu chnh (s d).
Cc gi tr ao, 1, 2, k, i c xc nh bng phng php hi quy.
Bc 2. Phn phi hnh trnh (Trip distribution)
Sau khi d bo c nhu cu i li pht sinh ra trong vng phn tch, mc
tiu tip theo l phi xc nh c nhng hnh trnh ny i u trong s cc hnh
trnh xut pht t mt im i v n nhiu im n.

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Hnh 4.4 S phn phi hnh trnh

C ba yu nh hng ti s phn chia ny:

S lng hnh trnh pht sinh t im xut pht.

S hp dn ca vng n.

Tr khng (Chi ph, thi gian i li).

Phng php thng dng xc nh s phn phi hnh trnh l dng m

hnh phn phi hp dn (Gravity mode), phng php ny xc nh r s hnh trnh

i li gia im xut pht v im n nh l mt hm s v thuc tnh i v n
(thuc tnh OD) v chi ph i li gia chng:

Trong :
Tij = Hnh trnh t vng i n vng j.
Pi = Tng s hnh trnh pht sinh t vng i.
Aj = S hnh trnh hp thu vo vng j.
Fij = H s tr khng, thng thng l hm s t l nghch vi thi gian di
chuyn gia i v j.
Kij = H s hiu chnh v mt kinh t x hi cho nhng hnh trnh xut
pht t i v n vng j, thng ly bng 1.
Ta bit Ps v As c xc nh c t qu trnh pht sinh hnh trnh,
tng hnh trnh pht sinh ra phi bng tng hnh trnh hp thu
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Pi = Aj.
Khi tng s hnh trnh hp thu cho mi vng khng bng tng s hnh trnh
hp thu ban u, ta cn iu chnh li nhn t hp thu. Ta phi tnh ton li nhn t
hp thu theo cng thc sau:

Trong :
Ajk = Nhn t hp thu hiu chnh cho vng hp thu (ct) j ln th k.
Ajk = Aj khi k=1
Cjk = Tng gi tr hp thu (ct) thc t cho vng j ln th k
Aj = tng s hp thu mong mun thuc vng hp thu (ct) j
j = s th t khu vc hp thu
n = s lng khu vc
k = s ln lp
Bc 3. Phn chia phng thc
Sau khi hon thnh cng tc phn phi hnh trnh, cng vic tip theo l
phi xc nh c phng thc i li bng phng tin no s c s dng. Giai
on ny d bo c bao nhiu ngi s dng phng tin giao thng cng cng v
bao nhiu ngi s dng phng tin giao thng c nhn. Phng php thng
thng nht c s dng l m hnh Logit.

Hnh 4.5 Phn chia phng thc

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bc th 3 ca d bo nhu cu giao thng s dng m hnh la chn

logit tnh ton. Trong Cube, m hnh n gin nht c s dng l m hnh
logit tuyt i.
M hnh la chn n gin ny chia tng nhu cu i li gia hai la chn
thay th, n c gi l m hnh Binary. iu ny c th c m rng bng cch
thm cc phng thc khc, do to thnh mt m hnh a thc.
y l mt v d n gin ca m hnh tng cu. Gi s rng trong mt h
thng giao thng ch c hai phng thc ri rc cnh tranh l Phng tin c nhn
(Car) v giao thng cng cng (PT) - gia mt tp hp cc im i v im n.
Ngi s dng mt h thng nh vy c gi l s la chn nh phn, bi v ch
c hai la chn thay th ( C nhn hoc PT).

Qu trnh ny bt u bng cch tnh ton chi ph tng qut gia a im i

v a im n bng cc phng thc. Thng thng, chi ph ny l s kt hp
tuyn tnh ca cc chi ph tin t (gi v, nhin liu, vv) v thi gian (i b, ch i,
trung chuyn, thi gian trong xe, vv). Cng c th s dng mt hng s ph gn
ng no ca cc yu t chi ph c th d dng xc nh c s lng, v d
nh s tin li ca dch v xe but, hoc cht lng xe chy trn ng. Gi chi ph
i li bng Phng tin c nhn l CCar v PT l Cpt. Gi s rng c mt nhu cu
tng l D v cuc hnh trnh trong mt thi gian nht nh. Theo m hnh Logit
tuyt i th xc sut ca vic la chn Phng tin c nhn (PCar )v PT (PPT )
c a ra bi cc phng trnh di y:

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Vi l tham s quy m
Cc d bo nhu cu xe hi( Dcar )v PT ( Dpt ) l:

Cc trng hp ca m hnh c xc nh bi mt hng s dng nh

tham s quy m, c gi l trong cc phng trnh trn. Biu di y cho
thy s nhy ca m hnh vi cc gi tr khc nhau ca .
Nu = 0 m hnh ny l hon ton khng nhy vi chi ph v nhu cu
c chia u gia mi la chn c sn. Ch rng Pcar = 1/2 v Ppt = 1/2 khi = 0.
Khi tng, nhy ca m hnh logit ny tng theo, dn dn phn b nhu cu nhiu
hn la chn vi chi ph thp hn. Con s "m hnh logit nhy" cho thy m
hnh tr nn nhy hn vi s khc bit v chi ph khi = 0,01, 0,02 v 0,04.
Cui cng, khi tin ti v cng, m hnh s phn b tt c cc nhu cu
thay th vi chi ph thp nht. Gi tr ca tham s quy m s ph thuc vo bn cht
ca s la chn, c trng nhu cu cc n v chi ph. V d:

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Hnh 4.6 nhy m hnh Logit

Ngun: Ti liu hng dn s dng CUBE ca Citilabs
Bc 4. n nh tuyn ng (Traffic assignment)
y l giai on cui cng sau khi xc nh phng thc phn chia, mc
ch l phi xc nh c tuyn ng no (cho mi phng thc) c s dng
cho nhng hnh trnh t im i n im n.

Hnh 4.7 Tuyn ng no s c la chn cho hnh trnh?

Qu trnh n nh tuyn ng bao gm s dng cc phng php sau:
Phng php 1: Tt c hoc khng c g.
Hu ht hnh trnh c ch nh cho nhng tuyn tuyn ng ngn nht.

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Hnh 4.8 Tt c hoc khng c g ( All or nothing)

Phng php 2: Phng php cn bng, phng php ny bao gm cc
bc sau:
1. p dng mt phng php 1 (tt c hoc khng c g).
2. Tnh ton thi gian hnh trnh mi (lin quan n lu lng v ch tc
giao thng)
3. Tnh ton li hnh trnh ngn nht vi s tng trng giao thng
4. Kim tra li tt c cc tuyn xem c thi gian i li l tng ng hay
khng, nu khng, lp li bc 1, ngc li, kt thc qu trnh.
4.1.4 p dng phn mm d bo Cube Citilab trong thc tin:
M hnh Cube Citilab c s dng rng ri nhiu nc trn th gii.
Nhng nm gn y, Vit Nam cng bt u ph bin phn mm ny, v dn dn
a phn mm ny vo ng dng thc t ti nhiu d n ln nh ca c nc. in
hnh l cc d n ca cc tp on ln nh JICA, MVAc p dng Vit
Nam. Cc d n ln p dng Cube bao gm:
Giai on 3 ca HOUTRANS:
Trong giai on 3 ca nghin cu HOUTRANS nm 2004, Cube Citilab
c p dng m rng m hnh tnh ton. Trong bao gm phn chia chuyn
i theo mc ch, s hu phng tin c nhn, s hu phng tin gia nh Vi
vic phn chia nh m hnh s d dng nghin cu su cc yu t tc ng v nhm
iu chnh tng h s cho ph hp.

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Hnh 4.9 Giai on 3 ca HOUTRANS s dng CUBE/Voyager

Ngun: Bo co HOUTRANS
Tuyn Metro s 2:
Nm 2008, MVA s dng phn mn ny tnh ton lu lng hnh
khch v doanh thu Tuyn Metro s 2 thc hin cho Ngn hng Pht trin Chu (
ADB). Ngoi ra, bo co ny cng c tham kho tnh ton lu lng hnh
khch i metro ca Tuyn s 5.
Tuyn s 2 vi tng chiu di 13,3 km, trong 10,4 km i ngm v 2,9
km i trn cao. Xut pht t ga trung tm Bn Thnh, ng metro s i qua Ng
Su Ph ng, dc theo sut ng Cch mng Thng 8, tip ni theo ng
Trng Chinh v kt thc ti Bn xe An Sng. Vi gi nh cc tuyn Metro c
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hon thin th lu lng hnh khch i metro vo nm 2025 ca Tp H Ch Minh

nh sau:

Hnh 4.10 Lu lng hnh khch i Metro vo nm 2025

Ngun: D bo lu lng hnh khch v doanh thu Tuyn metro s 2- MVA
Ngoi ra m hnh d bo ca Cube Citilab cng ang c p dng trong
rt nhiu cc d n nh l khc. M hnh cng th hin tnh u vit so vi cc
phn mm d bo khc v tnh linh hot, ty bin v d s dng. Ty thuc vo
thut ton c p dng, m hnh c th thay i v c iu chnh a ra kt
qu ph hp nht.
4.2. D bo lu lng giao thng Qun 10- Tp. H Ch Minh
4.2.1 Cc bc tin hnh d bo.
4.2.1.1 Phn vng giao thng:
Vic xc nh phn vng giao thng c da trn nhiu cch thc nh:
Theo iu kin kinh t, c im dn c, ng ranh khu vc
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Phn vng giao thng trong khu vc nghin cu c chia thnh 2 khu vc:
khu vc ni vng (TAZ) v khu vc ngoi vng ( ExternalTAZ).
Bng 4.1 Khu vc ni vng ( TAZ )

TAZ
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Khu vc
Phng 1
Phng 2 v 3
Phng 4 v 9
Phng 5 v 8
Phng 6
Phng 7
Phng 10
Phng 11
Phng 12
Phng 13
Phng 14
Phng 15

Dn s HSSV
15121
1682
24952
8017
30991
9453
22395
2417
9243
2135
7292
1672
10138
1742
11717
1839
26239
7425
21385
5631
28269
8203
30909
8304

Lao
ng
2451
4892
3246
6499
2182
1639
2230
2106
7216
7167
4821
6732

Hnh 4.11 Khu vc ni vng ( TAZ )

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Khu vc ni vng (TAZ) nm trong Qun 10 c phn da trn ng

ranh ca khu vc kt hp vi s liu cuc kho st h gia nh (Household) khu vc
ni vng Qun 10 gm 15 phng c chia thnh 12 Zone. Vic phn chia cc
Zone theo ranh gii cc phng s tn dng c cc s liu v dn s, s HSSV,
s Lao ng, cc iu kin v kinh t, iu kin t nhin ca mi phng. Cc s
liu ny s c s dng cho cc bc tip theo trong m hnh d bo.
Bng 4.2 Khu vc ngoi vng (ExternalTAZ)
TAZ

Khu vc cc Qun Huyn

13

Qun 2, Qun 9, Bnh Thnh, Th c, Qun 3

14

Bnh Chnh, Bnh tn, Qun 11, Qun 6, Qun 5, Qun 8

15

Qun 1, Qun 4, Qun 7,Nh B, Cn Gi

16

Tn Bnh, G Vp, Hoc Mn, C Chi, Tn Ph, Ph Nhun

Hnh 4.12 Khu vc ngoi vng (ExternalTAZ)

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Khu vc ngoi vng (ExternalTAZ) bao gm cc qun, huyn cn li trong

thnh ph H Ch Minh (gm 23 qun, huyn ngoi tr Qun 10). Khu vc ngoi
vng ny c chia thnh 4 Zone da trn cc hng tip cn ca chng theo cc
trc ng chnh ca khu vc. Hng Ty kt ni vo ng Cch Mng Thng
Tm, L Thng Kit. Hng Bc kt ni vo in Bin Ph, V Th Su, Nguyn
Th Minh Khai. Hng Nam kt ni vo ng Ba Thng Hai, Hng Bng. Hng
ng kt ni vo ng L Thng Kit, Nguyn Tri Phng, L Hng Phong, L
Thi T. Vic phn chia cc ExternalTAZ ch mang tch cht tng i theo klin
khch quan ca tc gi. Cc s liu v Tng s chuyn i pht sinh, thu ht ca mi
Qun c tn dng theo iu chnh Quy hoch tng th pht trin GTVT
Tp.HCM n nm 2020 v tm nhn sau nm 2020. Cc s liu ny s c s
dng cho cc bc tip theo trong m hnh d bo.
4.2.1.2 Xy dng v phc tho mng li ( Network & Highway )
a. Xy dng mng li ng (Network)
Mng li ng ni vng: c xy dng da vo d liu v cc tuyn
ng ni vng nh: Tn tuyn ng, im u, im cui, B rng ng, Kh
nng thng hnh, Vn tc lu thng.

V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Hnh 4.13 Xy dng mng li ng ni vng

Hnh 4.14 Cc thuc tnh ca tuyn ng

V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Bng 4.3 Cc thuc tnh ca tuyn ng khu vc Qun 10

Stt

Tn ng

1
2

Ba Thng Hai
B Ht

Bc Hi

Cch Mng Thng 8

Cao Thng

6
7
8

o Duy T
ng Nai
H B Kin

Ha Ho

10
11
12
13
14
15

L Hng Phong
L Thi T
Ng Gia T
Ng Quyn
Nguyn Duy Dng
Nguyn Gin Thanh

V THANH TUN_QG10

im u
Cch Mng Thng Tm
Ng Gia T
Cch Mng Thng Tm
ng Nai
Sn 346
Bc Hi
in Bin Ph
ng 3/2
Nguyn Tri Phng
T Hin Thnh
T Hin Thnh
Trn Nhn Tn
Nguyn Kim
Hng Vng
Hng Vng
Vng Xoay Ng 7
ng 3/2
Nguyn Ch Thanh
Bc Hi

im cui

Mt
ng

S
ln

L Thng Kit
Nguyn Kim
ng Nai
Sn 346
L Thng Kit
Cng Trng Dn Ch
ng 3/2
Hong D Khng
L Thng Kit
Bc Hi
Trng Sn
Ng Quyn
L Thng Kit
Hong D Khng
ng 3/2
Nguyn Tri Phng
Nguyn Ch Thanh
B Ht
Sn JJ12C

(m)
17
7
6
7
19
11
10
11
8
7
8
7
7
15
18
14
8
8
10

Ln
4
2
2
2
6
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
4
4
4
2
2
3

Trang 70

Vn tc
trung
bnh

Lu
lng

30
31
32
30
32
29
33
35
32
34
31
29
28
34
33
34
29
30
31

6,400
3,200
3,200
3,200
6,400
6400
4,800
4,800
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
6,400
6,400
6,400
3,200
3,200
4,800

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

16 Nguyn Kim
17 Nguyn Tri Phng
18 Nguyn Tiu La
19 Nht To
20 S Vn Hnh
21 Tn Phc
22 Thnh Thi
23
24
25
26

T Hin Thnh
Trn Bnh Trng
Trn Minh Quyn
Trn Nhn Tn

27 Trng Sn
28 Vnh Vin
29 Vng Xoay Ng 7
30 in Bin Ph
31 Hng Vng
32 L Thng Kit
33 Nguyn Ch Thanh

V THANH TUN_QG10

Sn JJ12C
Cui ng
Nguyn Ch Thanh
ng 3/2
Ng Gia T
ng 3/2
ng 3/2
Ha Ho
o Duy T
Nguyn Ch Thanh
Nguyn Tri Phng
L Thng Kit
Nguyn Ch Thanh
T Hin Thnh
Ng Quyn
L Thng Kit
ng 3/2
T Hin Thnh
T Hin Thnh
Bc Hi
Cch Mng Thng 8
L Thng Kit
Hng Vng
Ch hoa H Th K
ng 3/2
in Bin Ph
Ng Gia T
Hng Vng
ng Nai
S HH3
S HH3
Cch Mng Thng 8
L Hng Phong
L Thng Kit
L Thi T - L Hng Phong - Ng Gia T
Vng Xoay Ng 7
Nguyn Thng Hin
Vng Xoay Ng 6 Cng
Nguyn Ch Thanh
Ha
Ba Thng Hai
Bc Hi
Hng Vng
L Thng Kit

Trang 71

7
12
14
8
8
6
10
9
14
18
10
9
7
8
9
11
6

2
4
4
2
2
2
3
3
4
6
3
3
2
2
3
3
2
3

31
32
34
30
30
27
28
31
32
36
34
32
29
29
33
33
28
21
34

3,200
6,400
6,400
3,200
3,200
3,200
4,800
4,800
6,400
9,600
4,800
4,800
3,200
3,200
4,800
4,800
3,200
4,800

15
9

30

4,800

15
10

4
3

29
30

6,400
4,800

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Cc ng kt ni t tm TAZ: Gi nh t tm TAZ s kt ni vi cc
nt giao ct gn nht. Vi cc thuc tnh vn tc lu thng 28.5km/h ( Theo iu
chnh Quy hoch tng th pht trin GTVT Tp.HCM n nm 2020 v tm nhn sau
nm 2020).

Hnh 4.15 Cc ng kt ni tm TAZ

Cc ng kt ni t tm ExternalTAZ dn TAZ: c xy dng da
trn tm ExternalTAZ vi cc trc ng chnh. Thuc tnh ca cc ng kt ni
ny ly theo ng chnh ko di ca mng li ng ni vng.

V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Hnh 4.16 Xy dng mng li ng ngoi vng (ng kt ni)

b. Xc nh thi gian, khong cch, chi ph i li gia cc Zone (Highway)
T cc d liu v mng li ng Network s dng Highway trong Cube
xc nh thi gian, khong cch, chi ph i li gia cc Zone vi nhau.
M hnh HIGHWAY c trnh by nh sau:

Hnh 4.17 Xc nh thi gian thi gian, khong cch, chi ph i li

Thng tin u vo: File mng li Network (Network.NET)
V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Kt qu: File ma trn bao gm Thi gian, khong cch, chi ph i li gia
cc Zone (Time distance cost.MAT). Ph lc C: CC KT QU TNH TON
M HNH 4 BC T CUBE CITILABS.
File chng trnh:

Thi gian i li: Ma trn thi gian, chi ph v qung ng c mi lin h

trc tip vi nhau. Vi trng hp lu thng t do ( xe khng b tc nghn) th
thi gian i li c tnh da vo mi quan h gia qung ng v vn tc:
t0=(li.distance/li.speed)*60/1000 (quy i n v tnh vn tc t km/h sang m/pht
nhn thm vi 60/1000).

V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

MW[1] l ma trn thi gian i li gia cc zone.

MW[2] l ma trn khong cch gia cc zone.
[I] ngha l i li trong 1 zone ni b. Nu i trong ni zone th Cube khng
th tnh ton thi gian v khong cch nn s liu ny c gi nh da vo cc s
liu khc.
Cu lnh: MW[1] [I] = rowmin(1)*0.5 l ma trn thi gian i li ni zone (
v d nh i li trong Zone 1) c tnh bng gi tr nh nht trong hng nhn
vi 0.5. y l gi tr mc nh.
Cu lnh: MW[2] [I] = rowmin(2)*0.1 l ma trn khong cch i li ni
zone. N c tnh bng cch ly gi tr nh nht trong hng nhn vi 0.1. y l
gi tr mc nh.
Chi ph i li: Chi ph i li = Distance.VOC
Vi VOC (vehicle operating cost) l chi ph vn hnh phng tin tnh theo
VND/km. Gi nh 1 lt xng l 27.000 VND v 1 lt xng i c 30 km trong
thnh ph th gi tng ng l 900/1000000 Nghn VND/m. Chi ph vn hnh
phng tin bao gm rt nhiu yu t nh gi mua xe, bo him, khu hao, chi ph
i li n thun.
Cu lnh: MW[3]=1.5*mw[2]*900/1000000 l VOC ma trn chi ph vn
hnh phng tin. Vi 1.5 l h s iu chnh, xt nh hng ca cc yu t khc
tc ng n chi ph i li.
Cu lnh: IF(I>12) MW[3][I]=9999999999 l cc chuyn i ni vng c
Ma trn chi ph =9999999999 vi cc Zone ln hn 12 (ExternalTAZ). iu ny
gip phn b chuyn i ni vng ca cc ExternalTAZ=0.
4.2.1.3 M hnh pht sinh v thu ht chuyn i ( Trip Generation )
M hnh pht sinh (P) v thu ht (A) chuyn i c xy dng l cc hm
hi quy tuyn tnh 3 bin vi cc bin l s lng dn s, s lng lao ng v s
lng hc sinh sinh vin. C th kt qu tnh ton nh sau.
M hnh pht sinh chuyn i:
Pi = ai*Population + bi*Workers + ci*Students
V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

M hnh thu ht chuyn i:

Aj = xj*Population + yj*Workers + zj*Students
Trong :

Population

Workers

: S lao ng

Students

: S HSSV

: Dn s

ai, bi, ci, xj, yj, zj l tham s, h s hi quy tng ng.

Bng 4.4 Tham s, h s hi quy m hnh pht sinh, thu ht chuyn i
Lao
Chuyn i

Pht sinh

HBW

HBS

HBO

NHB

Thu ht

HBW

HBS

HBO

NHB

Dn s

HSSV

ng

H s

0.002742 -0.047176

0.452868

t Stat

0.062260 -0.509062

3.919127

H s

0.025684

0.131965

0.071725

t Stat

0.434999

1.062323

0.463062

H s

0.312818 -0.125096 -0.145789

t Stat

2.800396 -0.532286 -0.497503

H s

0.014581

0.019505 -0.006825

t Stat

0.536623

0.341202 -0.095754

H s

-0.022228

0.175015

0.322392

t Stat

-0.245755

0.919720

1.358731

H s

-0.122150

0.456722

0.408566

t Stat

-2.384580

4.237840

3.040354

H s

-0.102445

0.622483

0.803569

t Stat

-0.345498

0.997832

1.033052

H s

0.002496

0.036485

0.026851

t Stat

0.088677

0.616072

0.363621

Trong qu trnh phng vn kho st thc t chuyn i, s chuyn i kho

st c khng nhiu v kt qu kho st phi qua mt bc hiu chnh nn kt qu
V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

hi quy xut hin sai s tuy nhin c th chp nhn c. Tnh ton h s hi quy
c trnh by trong Ph lc A Tnh ton h s hi quy.
Chuyn i c chia thnh 4 loi I-I, E-I, I-E v E-E. Trong :
I-I (Internal Internal) l chuyn i ni vng, im i v im n ca
hnh trnh u nm trong ni vng kho st.
E-I (External Internal) chuyn i ngoi vng c im i nm ngoi
vng kho st v im n nm trong vng kho st.
I-E (Internal External) l chuyn i ngoi vng c im i nm trong
vng kho st v im n nm ngoi vng kho st.
E-E (External External) l chuyn i lin vng c im i v im n
u khng nm trong vng kho st. Cc chuyn i ny i xuyn qua ni vng kho
st.

Hnh 4.18: Phn chia chuyn i ni vng v lin vng

M hnh pht sinh, thu ht chuyn i da vo hm hi quy tuyn tnh 3 bin
vi cc bin l s lng dn s, s lng lao ng v s lng hc sinh sinh vin
ch p dng cho TAZ (cc Zone ni vng). Cc chuyn i pht sinh, thu ht lin
V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

vng (ExternalTAZ) c ly theo iu chnh Quy hoch pht trin GTVT

Tp.HCM n nm 2020 v tm nhn sau nm 2020.
Bng 4.5 Ma trn OD Tng chuyn i nm 2020 gia Qun 10 v cc
Qun, huyn khc ca Tp.HCM
Pht sinh
Ni i/ Ni n

Thu ht
Qun 10

Ni n/ Ni i

Qun 10

Qun 1
18413
Qun 1
18873
Qun 2
8066
Qun 2
10227
Qun 3
24468
Qun 3
22358
Qun 4
8953
Qun 4
8986
Qun 5
28000
Qun 5
28426
Qun 6
12628
Qun 6
15240
Qun 7
19273
Qun 7
19967
Qun 8
32599
Qun 8
26966
Qun 9
15873
Qun 9
20724
Qun 10
Qun 10
Qun 11
21532
Qun 11
21464
Qun 12
17809
Qun 12
25076
G Vp
25682
G Vp
22157
Tn Bnh
48516
Tn Bnh
48320
Bnh Thnh
18840
Bnh Thnh
17339
Ph Nhun
10455
Ph Nhun
10780
Th c
18091
Th c
15007
C Chi
21836
C Chi
31603
Hc Mn
17549
Hc Mn
19100
Bnh Chnh
29961
Bnh Chnh
32105
Nh B
11478
Nh B
15865
Cn Gi
6269
Cn Gi
7803
Tn Ph
43497
Tn Ph
32761
Bnh Tn
39502
Bnh Tn
44627
Tng
499290
Tng
515774
Ngun iu chnh Quy hoch pht trin GTVT Tp.HCM n nm 2020 v
tm nhn sau nm 2020.

V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Bng 4.6 Ma trn OD ngoi vng (ExternalTAZ)

Zone

Qun

I-E

E-I

85338

85655

Qun 2, Qun 9, Bnh Thnh,

13

Th c, Qun 3
Bnh Chnh, Bnh tn, Qun

14

11, Qun 6, Qun 5, Qun 8

164222 168828

Qun 1, Qun 4, Qun 7, Nh

15

B, Cn Gi

64386

71494

Tn Bnh, G Vp, Hoc Mn,

16

C Chi, Tn Ph, Ph Nhun

167535 164721
481481 490698

Tng

Da vo Ma trn OD ngoi vng (I-E v E-I Trips) ta c th xc nh c

chuyn i pht sinh PI-E, PE-I v thu ht AI-E, AE-I. Gi tr PI-E ca cc Zone ni vng
c tnh da vo Tng AI-E v chia u cho 12 Zone ni vng. Gi tr AE-I ca cc
Zone ni vng c tnh da vo Tng PE-I v chia u cho 12 Zone ni vng. Mt
khc s chuyn i pht sinh, thu ht ca khu vc ngoi zone n khu vc Qun 10
c gi nh l PE-E = AE-E =200.000 chuyn i. (Xem Bng 4.6)
Bng 4.7 Pht sinh, thu ht cho cc mc ch I-E, E-I, E-E
Zone/

I-E

Chuyn

E-I

E-E

40123

40892

40123

40892

40123

40892

40123

40892

40123

40892

40123

40892

V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

40123

40892

40123

40892

40123

40892

10

40123

40892

11

40123

40892

12

40123

40892

13

85655

85338

200000 200000

14

168828

164222

200000 200000

15

71494

64386

200000 200000

16

164721

167535

200000 200000

M hnh GENERATION c trnh by nh sau:

Hnh 4.19 M hnh pht sinh, thu ht chuyn i nm 2020

Thng tin u vo: c dn ngun nhp s liu t ArcGis
File Zonal Data 1 l s liu TAZ (TAZ.dbf)
File Zonal Data 2 ExternalTAZ (ExternalTAZ.dbf)
Kt qu: File m hnh pht sinh thu ht nm 2020. (Generation.dbf). Ph
lc C: CC KT QU TNH TON M HNH 4 BC T CUBE
CITILABS

V THANH TUN_QG10

Trang 80

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

File chng trnh:

V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Trong :
P[1]: Chuyn i Pht sinh vi mc ch HBW.
P[2]: Chuyn i Pht sinh vi mc ch HBS.
P[3]: Chuyn i Pht sinh vi mc ch HBO.
P[4]: Chuyn i Pht sinh vi mc ch NHB.
P[5]: Chuyn i Pht sinh ngoi Zone PI-E
P[6]: Chuyn i Pht sinh ngoi Zone PE-I
P[7]: Chuyn i Pht sinh lin vng PE-E
P[8]: Tng s chuyn i Pht sinh.
A[1]: Chuyn i Thu ht vi mc ch HBW.
A[2]: Chuyn i Thu ht vi mc ch HBS.
A[3]: Chuyn i Thu ht vi mc ch HBO.
A[4]: Chuyn i Thu ht vi mc ch NHB.
A[5]: Chuyn i Thu ht ngoi Zone PI-E
A[6]: Chuyn i Thu ht ngoi Zone PE-I
A[7]: Chuyn i Thu ht lin vng PE-E
A[8]: Tng s chuyn i Thu ht.
Cu lnh: BALANCE A2P=1,2,3 NHB=4 nhm mc ch cn bng s
chuyn i pht sinh v thu ht. Vi vic s dng cc h s hi quy a vo tnh
ton S chuyn i Pht sinh v Thu ht s lm cho hai gi tr ny khc nhau. Theo
nguyn tc tng s chuyn i Pht sinh bng tng s chuyn Thu ht. Tc l P=
A nn cn phi hiu chnh li hai gi tr S chuyn i Pht sinh v Thu ht cho cc
mc ch chuyn i c th.
Cube Citilabs a ra 3 nguyn tc cn bng:
A2P: Tng s chuyn i Thu ht bng tng s chuyn i Pht sinh cho mc
ch .
P2A: Tng s chuyn i Pht sinh bng tng s chuyn i Thu ht cho mc
ch .

V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

NHB: tng s chuyn i hp dn bng tng s chuyn i pht sinh cho mc

ch . V s chuyn i pht sinh ca tng zone bng vi s chuyn i hp dn ca
zone .
Thng thng A2P cho cc mc ch home based ( HB)
NHB cho mc ch non home based (NHB)
Nh vy A2P=1,2,3 s dng cn bng s chuyn i Pht sinh v Thu ht
cho mc ch chuyn i HBW, HBS, HBO. NHB=4 s dng cn bng s chuyn
i Pht sinh v Thu ht cho mc ch chuyn i NHB.
4.2.1.4 M hnh phn b chuyn i ( Trip Distribution)
Phng php dng xc nh s phn phi hnh trnh l dng m hnh
phn phi hp dn (Gravity mode), phng php ny xc nh r s hnh trnh i li
gia im xut pht v im n nh l mt hm s v thuc tnh i v n (thuc
tnh OD) v chi ph i li gia chng:

Trong :
Tij = Hnh trnh t vng i n vng j.
Pi = Tng s hnh trnh pht sinh t vng i.
Aj = S hnh trnh hp thu vo vng j.
Fij = H s tr khng, thng thng l hm s t l nghch vi thi gian di
chuyn gia i v j. Trong lun vn ny s dng l hm s t l nghch vi chi ph s
dng phng tin gia i v j.
Kij = H s hiu chnh v mt kinh t x hi cho nhng hnh trnh xut
pht t i v n vng j, thng ly bng 1.
H s tr khng Fij
Mi quan h gia phn phi chiu di chuyn i v chi ph i li c biu
din bi "ma st" ng cong bng cch s dng cng thc sau:
Fij = CijAexp(BCij)
V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Trong :
Fij l h s tr khng.
Cij l chi ph chuyn i t vng pht sinh i n vng hp dn j
A v B l hng s hiu chun nh th hin trong bng 4.8
Bng 4.8 M hnh phn b chuyn i - Cc hng s hiu chun
Mc ch chuyn i

HBW

-0.8002

-0.0397

HBS

-0.2126

-0.133

HBO

0.0607

-0.1195

NHB

0.3197

-0.1109

Ngun: D bo lu lng hnh khch v doanh thu Tuyn metro s 2MVA

T cc hng s hiu chun A, B trn ta c th tnh H s tr khng Fij cho
cc mc ch chuyn i HBW, HBS, HBO, NHB vi cc gi tr gi nh. ng vi
gi tr Cij=1 th cc gi tr tng ng ca hm Fij cho HBW=0.961078, HBS=
0.875465, HBO= 0.887364, NHB= 0.895028, tnh ton tng t cho cc gi tr Cij
khc ( Xem bng 4.9). Gi tr Fij ny s dng cho qu trnh ni suy gi tr tr khng
Fij trong chng trnh DISTRIBUTION. H s c iu chnh ph hp vi
m hnh.
Bng 4.9 H s tr khng vi mc ch chuyn i HBW, HBS, HBO,NHB
Cij

HBW

HBS

HBO

NHB

I-E

E-I

E-E

0.01
1
5
7
10
25
50

1.8316
0.9611
0.2262
0.1596
0.1065
0.0282
0.006

2.6584
0.8755
0.3653
0.2606
0.1621
0.0181
0.0006

0.7552
0.8874
0.6066
0.4875
0.3481
0.0613
0.0032

0.2291
0.895
0.9608
0.8571
0.6888
0.1749
0.0136

10.869
0.9047
0.5397
0.4412
0.3264
0.0706
0.0059

10.869
0.9047
0.5397
0.4412
0.3264
0.0706
0.0059

10.869
0.9047
0.5397
0.4412
0.3264
0.0706
0.0059

Cn bng s chuyn i pht sinh v chuyn i thu ht Pi = Aj.

V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Ta bit Pi v Aj c xc nh c t qu trnh pht sinh hnh trnh,

tng hnh trnh pht sinh ra phi bng tng hnh trnh hp thu.
Pi = Aj.
Khi tng s hnh trnh hp thu cho mi vng khng bng tng s hnh trnh
hp thu ban u, ta cn iu chnh li nhn t hp thu. Ta phi tnh ton li nhn t
hp thu theo cng thc sau:

Trong :
- Ajk = Nhn t hp thu hiu chnh cho vng hp thu (ct) j ln th k.
- Ajk = Aj khi k =1
- Cjk = Tng gi tr hp thu (ct) thc t cho vng j ln th k
- Aj = tng s hp thu mong mun thuc vng hp thu (ct) j
- j = s th t khu vc hp thu
- n = s lng khu vc
- k = s ln lp
M hnh DISTRIBUTION Phn b chuyn i c trnh by nh sau:

Hnh 4.20 M hnh phn b chuyn i

Thng tin u vo:
File Matrix File 1 l ma trn Thi gian, khong cch, chi ph i li gia cc
vng. Time distance cost.MAT c ly t chng trnh HIGHWAY.

V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

File Zoanl Data 1 l s liu s chuyn i pht sinh, thu ht. Generation.dbf
c ly t chng trnh GENERATION.
Kt qu: File ma trn phn b chuyn i Distribution.MAT. Xem Ph lc
C: CC KT QU TNH TON M HNH 4 BC T CUBE CITILABS
File chng trnh:

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Trong :
MAXITER: S vng lp ti a l 99, dng cn bng Pi = Aj.
MAXRMSE (Root Mean Squared Error): Sai s bnh phng trung bnh ln

nht.
RMSE dng kim tra sai s gia Aj ban u v Aj sau khi tnh lp trong
m hnh.
LOOKUP NAME=FF, Thnh lp hm Friction Factor
LOOKUP[1]=1,RESULT=2, ng vi gi tr ct 1 cho kt qu ct 2
(HBW)
LOOKUP[2]=1,RESULT=3, ng vi gi tr ct 1 cho kt qu ct 3 (HBS)
LOOKUP[3]=1,RESULT=4, ng vi gi tr ct 1 cho kt qu ct 4 (HBO)
LOOKUP[4]=1,RESULT=5, ng vi gi tr ct 1 cho kt qu ct 5 (NHB)
LOOKUP[5]=1,RESULT=6, ng vi gi tr ct 1 cho kt qu ct 6 (I-E)
LOOKUP[6]=1,RESULT=7, ng vi gi tr ct 1 cho kt qu ct 7 (E-I )
LOOKUP[7]=1,RESULT=8, ng vi gi tr ct 1 cho kt qu ct 8 (E-E ).
INTERPOLATE=T, Cho php ni suy cc gi tr gia khi chi ph khng
trn.
LIST=Y, Lit k cc gi tr trong bng tnh ton.
R: H s tr khng Fij cho cc mc ch chuyn i HBW, HBS, HBO, NHB, IE, E-I, E-E vi cc gi tr gi nh. S dng ni suy cc gi tr Fij khc.
MW[20]=MI.1.3 Ma trn lin quan xc nh hm tr khng, y l ma trn
COST_MC (chi ph i li gia cc Zone).
GRAVITY PURPOSE=1,LOS=MW[20],FFACTORS=FF
GRAVITY PURPOSE=2,LOS=MW[20],FFACTORS=FF
GRAVITY PURPOSE=3,LOS=MW[20],FFACTORS=FF
GRAVITY PURPOSE=4,LOS=MW[20],FFACTORS=FF
GRAVITY PURPOSE=5,LOS=MW[20],FFACTORS=FF
GRAVITY PURPOSE=6,LOS=MW[20],FFACTORS=FF
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GRAVITY PURPOSE=7,LOS=MW[20],FFACTORS=FF, Cu lnh lin quan

n Graivity Model.
MW[8]=MW[1]+MW[2]+MW[3]+MW[4]+MW[5]+ MW[6] + MW[7] l Ma
trn tng ca cc ma trn chuyn i HBW, HBS, HBO, NHB, I-E, E-I, E-E.
4.2.1.5 M hnh phn chia phng thc: ( Mode Choice )
a. Thit lp chi ph i li bng GTCC: (Puplic Transport)

Hnh 4.21 M hnh xy dng mng li GTCC

Thng tin u vo:
Network File c ly t Network ca mng li Network10.net
Line File 1 l file thit lp hin cc tuyn xe but da trn mng li
Network Cactuyenxebuyt.lin
System File 1 l file h thng nh ngha v cc phng thc di chuyn
System.PTS
Fares File l file nh ngha v h thng gi ca xe but Fares.far
Factor File l file chng trnh la chn kh nng tip cn Factor.fac
Cc file thit lp u vo nh sau:
Bng 4.10 Thng k h thng xe but trn a bn Qun 10
STT
1
2
3
4

M s tuyn
Tuyn s 103
Tuyn s 13
Tuyn s 94
Tuyn s 27

V THANH TUN_QG10

im u
Bn xe Ch Ln
Bn Thnh
bn xe Ch Ln
Bn Thnh

im cui
Bn xe Ng 4 Ga.
Bn xe C Chi.
Bn xe C Chi.
Bn Xe An Sng
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5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Tuyn s 65
Tuyn s 66
Tuyn s 69
Tuyn s 59
Tuyn s 14
Tuyn S 7
Tuyn s 10
Tuyn s 8
Tuyn s 30
Tuyn s 150
Tuyn s 54
Tuyn s 91
Tuyn s 38
Tuyn s 02

Bn Thnh
Bn Thnh
Bn Thnh
Bn xe Qun 8
Bn xe Min Ty
Bn xe Min Ty
Bn xe Min Ty
Bn xe Qun 8
Ch Tn Hng
Bn xe Ch Ln
Bn xe Ch Ln
Bn xe Min Ty
Khu CN Tn Quy
Bn Thnh

Bn Xe An Sng
Bn Xe An Sng
Khu CN Tn Bnh
Ng T Ga
Bn Xe Min ng
Ch G Vp
i hc Quc Gia
i hc Quc Gia
H Quc T Th c
Ng Ba Tn Vn
Bn Xe Min ng
Ch Th c
m Sen
Bn xe Min Ty

Hnh 4.22 Thuc tnh ca tuyn

Thng tin thit lp :
NAME: tn tuyn xe but
N: Nt xe but i qua trn mng li Network
MODE: Phng thc l 1, y c xc nh l xe but
OPERATOR: H thng ch c 1 loi l xe but
ONEWAY: Chn tuyn 1 chiu
HEADWAY: Thi gian gin cch ca xe but, y gi nh chung cho tt
c cc tuyn xe but l 5 pht.
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Hnh 4.23 S h thng mng li cc tuyn i qua khu vc Qun 10

System File 1 nh ngha v cc phng thc di chuyn ca h thng
Phng thc di chuyn 1 l i xe but
Phng thc di chuyn 100 l i b
Cc phng thc ny c nh ngha nhm m ha trong cu lnh c d
dng.
Fares File l file nh ngha v h thng gi ca xe but, h thng gi xe
but c nh ngha da vo nh ngha phng thc ca h thng
Cc loi v c nh ngha trong Cube Citilabs nh sau:
Free: min ph
Flat: gi chung c nh cho tuyn
Distance: bao gm chi ph ln xe v chi ph cho tng tuyn ng
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From/to: Chi ph ph thuc vo im bt u v im kt thc.

Count: chi ph da trn tng s Zones i qua
Accumlate: Mi Zones c mt gi v khc nhau v s cng vo chi ph
chung
Hilow: Chi ph b nh hng bi s lng zone cao nht i qua.
Trong lun vn s dng nh ngha Flat cho tt c cc tuyn c gi chung l
2000 VN.
Factor File 1 l file chng trnh la chn kh nng tip cn n giao
thng cng.
Trong lun vn la chn thut ton Bestpathonly l la chn ng ngn
nht tip cn(t).
Kt qu:
Network File: mng li cc tuyn xe but, cc tuyn ng k ni t tm
Zone n cc trm dng nh ch.
Links File 1: Bng thng k cc thuc tnh (in u, im cui, khong
cch, thi gian).
NTLegs File: Lit k cc thuc tnh ca cc tuyn ng i b kt ni t
tm Zone dn trm dng nh ch.
Matrix File 1: File ma trn chi ph i li bng xe but MAtrixCP.MAT.
Xem Ph lc C: CC KT QU TNH TON M HNH 4 BC T CUBE
CITILABS
File chng trnh:

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Trong :
LW.TRANTIME = 0.80*(li.DISTANCE*60/1000)/LI.SPEED ( hm thit
lp chi ph thi gian bng qung ng chia cho vn tc)l thi gian i li ca xe
but c gi nh bng 0.8 ln thi gian i li ca phng tin c nhn.
LW.WALKTIME = 1.00*(li.DISTANCE*60/1000)/4.5 l thi gian i li
ca i b c gi nh rng vn tc ca ngi i b l 4.5 km/h.
COST=LI.DISTANCE: nh ngha hm chi ph c tnh bng n v mt
EXTRACTCOST=LW.WALKTIME
MAXCOST=500 ch tnh tip cn xe but t trm dng cho khu vc
R=500m
NTLEGMODE=100 l nh ngha phng thc i b l 100
FROMNODE=1-16, TONODE=16-9999
MW[1]=FAREA(0): ma trn MW[1] l gi v i li bng xe but FAREA
IF (MW[1]=0)

MW[1]=9999: nu gi tr MW[1] = 0 th nhn gi tr

9999

Hnh 4.24 Mt bao ph ca mng li cc tuyn i qua khu vc Qun 10

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Trn ton Qun 10 mng li xe but c bao ph gn nh hon ton.

Vng trn en l tm ca cc trm dng, nh ch ca h thng xe but. T tm
vng trn xanh th hin bn knh trm dng, nh ch l 500m, vi khong cch ny
th xc sut la chn phng tin xe but s thp v dn dn tin gn n vng trn
mu th khong cch ngn hn, xc sut la chn phng tin xe but cao hn.
ng ni tm Zone: Tm Zone c kt ni vi cc trm xe but, nh ch
gn nht bng h thng ng kt ni s dng phng thc i b. Theo tt c
cc Zone s s dng phng tin giao thng cng cng xe but tha khong cch i
b khng qu 500m.

Hnh 4.25 ng kt ni tm Zone bng phng thc i b

b. Xc nh phng thc la chn:
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Sau khi hon thnh cng tc phn phi hnh trnh, cng vic tip theo l
phi xc nh c phng thc i li bng phng tin no s c s dng. Giai
on ny d bo c bao nhiu ngi s dng phng tin giao thng cng cng v
bao nhiu ngi s dng phng tin giao thng c nhn. Gi nh n nm 2020
cc tuyn Metro cha c hon thnh, nn phng tin giao thng cng cng ch
tnh cho mng li xe but hin hu. Cc phng thc vn ti c chia thnh 2
loi :
Phng tin giao thng cng cng : Xe But
Phng tin giao thng c nhn: Xe my v xe t
C rt nhiu phng pht tnh ton bc ny, trong m hnh gi nh
s dng hm tha dng sau tnh ton:

Vi Ci l chi ph i li ca phng tin

Gi nh xc xut i xe But:

Gi nh xc xut i xe c nhn:

i vi xc xut i xe but tng ng vi cc gi tr

Vi

gi nh.

=0 c th nhn thy xc xut la chn GTCC l 12.5%. Gi tr

cng

cao tng ng vi xc xut la chn phng tin c chi ph i li thp hn cng

cao. y, trong lun vn gi nh vi cc mc ch ca chuyn i tng ng vi
cc gi tr

sau:

HBW: 0.1, HBS: 0.25, HBO: 0.1, NHB: 0.1, EXTERNAL: 0.05

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Hnh 4.26 Xc xut la chn GTCC

Theo quy hoch chung ca Thnh ph H Ch Minh n nm 2020 v tm
nhn sau nm 2020 th nm 2020, xe c nhn chim 75% phng thc, phng tin
giao thng cng cng chim 25%. Hin ti t l xe but chim 6%-7%, n nm
2020 vi gi nh rng cc tuyn metro cha hon thnh th d on t l xe but
tng ln t 20% n 25%. V vy trong m hnh tnh ton c iu chnh li h s
cho ph hp vi t l ca phng thc.
M hnh Mode Choice c trnh by nh sau:

Hnh 4.27 M hnh phn chia phng thc Mode Choice

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Thng tin u vo:

Matrix File 1 l ma trn phn b chuyn i Trip Distribution.MAT t
chng trnh DISTRIBUTION
Matrix File 2 l ma trn thi gian, khong cch v chi ph Time Dis
Cost.MAT t chng trnh HIGHWAY
Matrix File 3 l ma trn chi ph i li bng xe but MAtrixCP.MAT t
chng trnh PUBLIC TRANSPORT
Kt qu: File ma trn phn chia phng thc la chn chuyn i gia cc
Zone Mode Choice.MAT. Kt qu xut ra c trnh by trong Ph lc C: CC
KT QU TNH TON M HNH 4 BC T CUBE CITILABS
File chng trnh:

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Trong :
MW[1]=MI.1.1 ; HBW MATRIX : Ma trn chuyn i theo mc ch HBW
MW[2]=MI.1.2 ; HBS MATRIX: Ma trn chuyn i theo mc ch HBS
MW[3]=MI.1.3 ; HBO MATRIX: Ma trn chuyn i theo mc ch HBO
MW[4]=MI.1.4 ; NHB MATRIX: Ma trn chuyn i theo mc ch NHB
MW[5]=MI.1.5+MI.1.6+MI.1.7 ; EXTERNAL MATRIX: Ma trn chuyn
ca ngoi zone External.
MW[8]=MI.2.3 ; MC_COST: Ma trn chi ph ca phng tin c nhn
MW[9]=3.1 ;PT_COST: Ma trn chi ph ca phng tin xe but.
HBW (LAMBDA=0.1) : Mc ch HBW vi gi tr Lamda = 0.1
MW[10]=EXP(-0.1*MW[8]) Hm hu dng chi ph c nhn mc ch
HBW

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MW[11]=EXP(-0.1*MW[9])

Hm hu dng chi ph xe but mc ch

HBW
MW[12]=MW[10]+MW[11] Tng hm hu dng chi ph c nhn v xe
but
MW[13]=(MW[11]/MW[12])/4

Xc sut i bng xe but cho mc ch

HBW
MW[14]=1-MW[13]

Xc sut i bng xe CN cho mc ch HBW

Tng t cho cc chuyn i HBS, HBO, NHB, EXTERNAL ng vi cc

gi tr Lamda gi nh.
MW[35]=MW[1]*MW[14]: S chuyn i phng tin c nhn cho HBW
MW[36]=MW[1]*MW[13]: S chuyn i phng tin xe but cho HBW
MW[37]=MW[2]*MW[19]: S chuyn i phng tin c nhn cho HBS
MW[38]=MW[2]*MW[18]: S chuyn i phng tin xe but cho HBW
MW[39]=MW[3]*MW[24]: S chuyn i phng tin c nhn cho HBO
MW[40]=MW[3]*MW[23] : S chuyn i phng tin xe but cho HBW
MW[41]=MW[4]*MW[29]: S chuyn i phng tin c nhn cho NHB
MW[42]=MW[4]*MW[18]: S chuyn i phng tin xe but cho HBW
MW[43]=MW[5]*MW[34]:

S chuyn i phng tin c nhn cho

EXTERNAL
MW[44]=MW[5]*MW[33]:

S chuyn i phng tin xe but cho

EXTERNAL
MW[45]=MW[35]+MW[37]+MW[39]+MW[41]+MW[43] ; Tng chuyn
i bng phng tin c nhn
MW[46]=MW[36]+MW[38]+MW[40]+MW[42]+MW[44] ; Tng chuyn
i bng phng tin giao thng cng cng.
4.2.1.6 Xt nh hng thi gian i vi cc chuyn i ( Time Of Day
Characteristic)
a. Chuyn t PA sang OD

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bc Mode choice xc nh c s lng chuyn i bng phng

thc c nhn dng PA (Production-Attraction) cho cc mc ch HBW, HBS,
HBO, NHB v External. Tuy nhin ma trn dng PA khc ma trn dng OD. V OD
ch ng hng di chuyn ca chuyn i. Chnh v vy ta thc hin mt bc
chuyn i t chuyn i dng PA sang OD.
Theo xt kt qu nghin cu National Cooperative Highway Research
Program - 365 th bc chuyn t ma trn PA sang ma trn OD c tnh ton nh
sau:
i vi OD ca cc chuyn i HB: OD(HB)=(P+A)/2
i vi cc chuyn i lin quan n nh ( HBW, HBS, HBO) th ma trn
OD c tnh bng (ma trn P+ma trn P hon v)/2. C th i vi mc nh HBW
c tnh nh sau:
HBWOD =0.5 x HBWPA + 0.5 x HBWPA
Trong :
HBWOD : l ma trn OD cho chuyn i vi mc ch BHW
HBWPA : l ma trn PA cho chuyn i vi mc ch BHW
HBWPA: l ma trn PA hon v cho chuyn i vi mc ch BHW
i vi NHB v External th ma trn PA =OD v hng ca ma trn NHB
trong nh ngha pht sinh v thu ht ging vi ma trn OD nn khng cn chuyn
i.
M hnh Chuyn t P-A sang O-D c trnh by nh sau:

Hnh 4.28 M hnh chuyn i t P-A sang O-D

Thng tin u vo: Matrix File 1: l ma trn chuyn i c nhn v GTCC
Mode Choice.MAT t chng trnh MATRIX 5 (Mode Choice)
Thng tin u ra: Matrix File 1: Ma trn chuyn i c nhn v GTCC
chuyn i sang OD ( matra OD.MAT). Kt qu xut ra c trnh by trong Ph
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lc C: CC KT QU TNH TON M HNH 4 BC T CUBE

CITILABS
File chng trnh:

Trong :
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MW[1]=MI.1.1 ; nh ngha ma trn chuyn i c nhn HBW

MW[2]=MI.1.2 ; nh ngha ma trn chuyn i xe but HBW
MW[3]=MI.1.3 ; nh ngha ma trn chuyn i c nhn HBS
MW[4]=MI.1.4 ; nh ngha ma trn chuyn i xe but HBS
MW[5]=MI.1.5 ; nh ngha ma trn chuyn i c nhn HBO
MW[6]=MI.1.6 ; nh ngha ma trn chuyn i xe but HBO
MW[11]=MI.1.1.T; Ma trn chuyn v ca chuyn i c nhn HBW
MW[12]=MI.1.2.T; Ma trn chuyn v ca chuyn i xe but HBW
MW[13]=MI.1.3.T ; Ma trn chuyn v ca chuyn i c nhn HBS
MW[14]=MI.1.4.T ; Ma trn chuyn v ca chuyn i xe but HBS
MW[15]=MI.1.5.T ; Ma trn chuyn v ca chuyn i c nhn HBO
MW[16]=MI.1.6.T ; Ma trn chuyn v ca chuyn i xe but HBO
MW[21]=((MW[1]+MW[11])/2) ; Ma trn D chuyn i c nhn ca HBW
MW[22]=((MW[2]+MW[12])/2) ; Ma trn OD chuyn i xe but ca HBW
MW[23]=((MW[3]+MW[13])/2) ; Ma trn OD chuyn i c nhn ca HBS
MW[24]=((MW[4]+MW[14])/2) ; Ma trn OD chuyn i xe but ca HBS
MW[25]=((MW[5]+MW[15])/2) ; Ma trn OD chuyn i c nhn ca HBO
MW[26]=((MW[6]+MW[16])/2) ; Ma trn OD chuyn i xe but ca HBO
MW[27]=MI.1.7

; Ma trn OD chuyn i c nhn ca HBW

MW[28]=MI.1.8

; Ma trn OD chuyn i xe but ca NHB

MW[29]=MI.1.9

; Ma trn OD chuyn i c nhn ca EXTERNAL

MW[30]=MI.1.10

; Ma trn OD chuyn i xe but ca EXTERNAL

MW[31]=MW[21]+MW[23]+MW[25]+MW[27]+MW[29] Tng s chuyn

i CN
MW[32]=MW[22]+MW[24]+MW[26]+MW[28]+MW[30] Tng s chuyn
i GTCC
b. Xc nh ma trn OD ca phng tin c nhn
Ma trn OD phng tin c nhn c chia lm 2 loi: l Xe my (MC) v
xe t (CAR), y khng xt cho phng thc i b. V mc tiu ca lun vn l
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nm c cc c s l thuyt ca d bo nn cc thng s chuyn i c gi nh

nh sau:

Chuyn i mc ch HBW c 30% i t v 70% xe my

Chuyn i mc ch HBS c 20% i b v 80% xe my

Chuyn i mc ch HBO c 30% i t v 70% xe my

Chuyn i mc ch NHB c 30% i t v 70% xe my

S chuyn i phng tin c nhn ang c tnh theo n v l

(chuyn/ngi) v vy cn quy i v n v xe con quy i (CAR) v xe my

(MOTORCYCLE) bng cch chia cho h s chuyn ch cho tng loi phng tin.
Theo thao kho h s chuyn ch phng tin nm d bo 2020 ca HOUTRANS
c:

H s chuyn ch ca t l 1.96

H s chuyn ch ca xe my l 1.3
M hnh O-D t xe my c trnh by nh sau:

Hnh 4.29 M hnh xc nh ma trn OD t xe my

Thng tin u vo: Matrix File 1 Ma trn OD chuyn i c nhn v
GTCC matran OD.MAT t chng trnh MATRIX 6 (P-A chuyn sang O-D).
Thng tin u ra: Matrix File 1 Ma trn chuyn i c nhn bng xe my
v t (MT OTO XEMAY.MAT). Xem Ph lc C: CC KT QU TNH TON
M HNH 4 BC T CUBE CITILABS
File chng trnh:

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Trong :
MW[1]=MI.1.1; nh ngha chuyn i c nhn HBW
MW[2]=MI.1.3; nh ngha chuyn i c nhn HBS
MW[3]=MI.1.5; nh ngha chuyn i c nhn HBO
MW[4]=MI.1.7; nh ngha chuyn i c nhn NHB
MW[5]=MI.1.9; nh ngha chuyn i c nhn EXTERNAL
MW[6]=0.3*MW[1]/1.96 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng t ca HBW
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MW[7]=0.7*MW[1]/1.3 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng xe my ca HBW

MW[8]=0.8*MW[2]/1.3 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng xe my ca HBS
MW[9]=0.3*MW[3]/1.96 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng xe my ca HBO
MW[10]=0.7*MW[3]/1.3 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng xe my ca HBO
MW[11]=0.3*MW[4]/1.96 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng t ca NHB
MW[12]=0.7*MW[4]/1.3 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng xe my ca NHB
MW[13]=0.3*MW[5]/1.96 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng t ca EXTERNAL
MW[14]=0.7*MW[5]/1.3 ; Ma trn chuyn i bng xe my ca
EXTERNAL
MW[15]=MW[6]+MW[9]+MW[10]+MW[13] ; Tng s xe t
MW[16]=MW[7]+MW[8]+MW[10]+MW[12]+MW[14] ; Tng s xe my
c. Xc nh ma trn chuyn i s dng phng tin c nhn gi cao im
Chuyn i s dng phng tin c nhn y l t v xe my gi cao
im (lu lng gi cao im) dng kim tra, nh gi t chc giao thng, mc
phc v trn tng tuyn ng.
Theo TCXDVN 104:2007 mc 5.2.3 th lu lng gi cao im c tnh
nh sau: Ngi =(0.12-0.14) Ngi ngy m
Trong thut ton ca chng trnh chn Ngi =0.12Ngi ngy m
M hnh O-D t xe my gi cao im c trnh by nh sau:

Hnh 4.30 M hnh Od t xe my gi cao im

Thng tin u vo: Matrix File 1 Ma trn chuyn i c nhn bng xe my
v t MT OTO XEMAY.MAT t chng trnh MATRIX 7 (Ma tran OD oto xe
may)
Thng tin u ra: Matrix File 1 Ma trn OD gi cao im chuyn i c
nhn bng xe my v t MT GCD.MAT. Xem Ph lc C: CC KT QU
TNH TON M HNH 4 BC T CUBE CITILABS
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File chng trnh:

Trong :
MW[1] = MI.1.1.0.12 ma trn xc nh gi cao im ca t
MW[1] = MI.1.2.0.12 ma trn xc nh gi cao im ca xe my
MW[3[=MW[1]+MW[2] tng lu lng gi cao im CPU (CPU: lu
lng quy i sang n v xcq)

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Hnh 4.31 Lu lng PCU ni Zone trong gi cao im

4.2.1.7 Xc nh mng li ( Trip Assignment )
Phng php nng lc gii hn
Mi quan h gia vn tc V v lu lng N: c th hin trong Hnh 4.34
Mi quan h gia vn tc V v lu lng N. Trong c 5 min khu vc c
gii hn bi 6 mc phc v khc nhau tng ng t A n F ( t phi qua tri).

Hnh 4.32 Mi quan h gia vn tc V v lu lng N

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Khi lu lng tng ti nng lc thng qua ca ng, th tc

trung bnh ca dng giao thng s gim t tc t do (tc ca xe khi c mnh
n trn ng) cho n tc khi dng giao thng t ti a.
Mc phc v_LOS ( Level of Service): l thc o v cht lng vn hnh
ca dng giao thng, m ngi iu khin phng tin v hnh khch nhn bit
c. c nh gi theo mc 5.4.2 TCXDVN 104:2007 ng th, tiu
chun thit k.
Mc phc v c chia lm 6 cp khc nhau, k hiu l A,B,C,D,E,F.
mc A - cht lng phc v tt nht v mc F - cht lng phc v km
nht. H s s dng kh nng thng hnh (Z) l mt trong s cc ch tiu gn
lin vi mc phc v mt on ng ph. H s s dng KNTH (Z) l t s
gia lu lng xe (N hoc V_volume) vi kh nng thng hnh (P hoc
C_capacity). H s s dng KNTH l thng s i din th hin mc phc v
ca mt tuyn ng.
Bng 4.11 nh gi mc phc v v h s s dng KNTH

STT

Mc
phc
v

Dng t do, tc rt cao

Dng khng hon ton t do, tc cao

Dng n nh nhng ngi li chu nh
hng khi mun t do chn tc mong
mun
Dng bt u khng n nh, li xe c t t
do trong vic chn tc
Dng khng n nh, ng lm vic trng
thi gii hn, bt k tr ngi no cng gy tc
xe

Dng hon ton mt n nh, tc xe xy ra

nh gi

V THANH TUN_QG10

H s s dng
KNTH (Z)
< 0.35
0.35 0.50

0.5 0.75
0.75 0.90

0.90 1.00
> 1.00

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Khi cht lng dng cng cao tc l yu cu tc chy xe cng ln, h

s Z cng nh. Ngc li, khi Z tng dn th tc chy xe trung bnh ca dng
xe gim dn v n mt gi tr nht nh s xy ra tc xe (Z~1).
Cc iu kin vn hnh chung cho cc mc phc v:
Mc phc v thit k v h s s dng KNTH c s dng khi thit k
ng ph c quy nh Bng 4.11
Bng 4.12 Mc phc v v h s s dng KNTH khi thit k

Loi ng

Cp
k thut

Tc thit
k (km/h)

100
80
70
80
70
60
50
60
50
40
40
30
20

100
80
70
80
70
60
50
60
50
40
40
30
20

ng cao tc
th

ng ph
chnh th

ng ph
gom
ng ph ni
b

Mc
phc v

D
D
E

H s s
dng
KNTH
0.6-0.7
0,7-0,8
0,7-0,8
0,7-0,8
0,7-0,8
0,8
0,8
0,8
0,8-0,9
0,8-0,9
0,8-0,9
0,9
0,9

Mi quan h gia Thi gian i li v Lu lng xe: c im quan

trng ca giao thng ng b l thi gian i li tng t l thun cng vi lu
lng: c cng nhiu phng tin lu thng trn cng mt on ng th th vn
tc ca dng xe cng gim v thi gian i li cng tng.
Mi quan h ny c biu din bng cng thc:
T= T0 [ 1+ 0.15 ( V/C ) 4]
Trong :
T: Thi gian i li b tr hon (gin on) gia im u I v im cui J
V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

T0: Thi gian i li trng thi t do gia im u I v im cui J

V: Lu lng t im u I n im cui J.
C: Kh nng thng hnh ln nht ca tuyn ng.

Hnh 4.33 Mi quan h gia Lu lng v Thi gian i li

Ngun: Ti liu hng dn Cube ca Citilabs
M hnh HIGHWAY n nh tuyn ng Assignment c trnh nh
sau:

Hnh 4.34 M hnh n nh tuyn ng Assignment

Thng tin u vo:
Matrix File 1: File ma trn OD ca t v xe my gi cao im MT
GCD.MAT ly t chng trnh MATRIX 8.
Network File: File mng li ng Network10.NET
Intersctn Data: File thit lp nt giao Intersection data.IND (xem Ph lc
B).
Kt qu:

V THANH TUN_QG10

Trang 112

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Network File: File mng li cc tuyn ng sau khi c n nh cc

chuyn i LeadedNetwork.NET
Tunr Flows: File kt qu dng nh gi nt giao Intersection data.INT
Path File 1: File kt qu dng nh gi mng li PathFile.PTH
File chng trnh:

Trong :
TURNS N=1-99999 T=TURN[1]+TURN[2]*0.25 Turn nh ngha tng
cc hng r bng tng hng r [1] cng vi hng r [2]*0.25. c xc nh
bng lu lng t + lu lng xe my*0.25 cho mi hng r. Cu lnh ny dng
xc nh lu lng ti cc hng r.
T0=((LI.DISTANCE/1000)/(LI.SPEED))*60 Thi gian i li trng thi t
do.
TC=T0*(1+0.15*(V/C)^4) Thi gian i li b nh hng bi lu lng.
V THANH TUN_QG10

Trang 113

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

V=VOL[1]+VOL[2]*0.25 Lu lng PCU = Lu lng t + Lu lng

xe my*0.25
4.2.2 nh gi cc kch bn giao thng
4.2.2.1 Kch bn 1 ( Gi nguyn mng li ng hin ti)
Lu lng PCU l lu lng xe con quy i.
Vi kch bn ny th lu lng ni qun c th hin nh sau:

Hnh 4.35 Lu lng PCU ni qun 10 kch bn 1 (I-I)

Lu lng PCU ni qun c phn b trn hu ht trn tt c cc tuyn
ng trn a bn, a phn tp trung ln nhng tuyn ng chnh kt ni tm
cc Zone ni vng vi nhau. Lu lng ny pht sinh ch yu do ngi dn trong
ni vng Qun 10 s dng i li trong ni qun.
Lu lng PCU i li trong khu vc nghin cu:

V THANH TUN_QG10

Trang 114

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Hnh 3.36 Lu lng PCU khu vc nghin cu kch bn 1

Khc vi lu lng PCU ni qun, lu lng CPU khu vc nghin cu
phn b ch yu trn cc tuyn ng chnh, ng trc chnh ca khu vc qun
V THANH TUN_QG10

Trang 115

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

nh: ng Ba Thng Hai, L Thng Kit, in Bin Ph, Cch Mng Thng 8,
Nguyn Tri Phng, S Vn Hnh
Hng Bc Nam : lu lng phn b tp trung trn cc tuyn Cch mng
thng 8. Ngoi ra, mt phn lu lng cng i vo cc ng trc chnh ca khu
vc qun.
Hng ng Ty: lu lng phn b tp trung trn cc tuyn Ba Thng
Hai, Ng Gia T, in Bin Ph.
Mc phc v: da vo H s s dng KNTH trn tng tuyn ng ta c
th nh gi s b tuyn ng no tc nghn, tuyn ng no lu thng bnh
thng.
Cc tuyn ng c H s s dng KNTH <0.75 (tng ng mc phc v
AC): cc tuyn ng lu thng bnh thng
Cc tuyn ng c H s s dng KNTH t 0.75 1 (tng ng mc phc
v DE): cc tuyn ng lu thng kh khn.
Cc tuyn ng c H s s dng KNTH >1 (tng ng mc phc v F):
cc tuyn dng b tc nghn

V THANH TUN_QG10

Trang 116

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Hnh 4.37 nh gi mc phc v kch bn 1

Nhn chung cc tuyn ng trong ni qun lu thng kh n nh, khng
b tt nghn. Tuy nhin cc tuyn ng trc chnh ca qun lu thng kh khn v
bt u xut hin tnh trng tc nghn ti cc trc nh: L Thi T, S Vn Hnh,
Nguyn Tri Phng, Ng Gia T. Hu ht cc tuyn ng kt ni vi cc khu vc
ngoi vi vo trung tm a phn lu thng khng n nh, nhiu trng hp b tc
nghn nh: L Thng Kit, Cc Mng Thng Tm, Ba Thng Hai, in Bin Ph.
Thi gian i li trn mng li: Vi gi nh rng thi gian i li khng
b nh hng bi nt giao v dn tn hiu. (n v: Pht)

V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Hnh 4.38 Thi gian i li b qua nh hng nt giao, n tn hiu kch bn 1

4.2.2.2 Kch bn 2 ( M rng mng li ng theo quy hoch giao thng)
Theo iu chnh quy hoch pht trin GTVT TP H Ch Minh n nm
2020 v tm nhn sau nm 2020 th v kt cu h tng giao thng u c nng
cp m rng p ng c nhu cu i li trong tng lai. Vi kch bn thay i
m rng nay, chiu rng cc tuyn ng c ly theo Ph lc 1: Quy m cp
hng k thut ca cc tuyn v nt giao thuc mng li ng c s nh sau:

V THANH TUN_QG10

Trang 118

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Bng 4.13 Thng k ng m rng Qun 10 theo iu chnh quy hoch

Stt Tn ng

Cch Mng
1 Thng Tm
2 Ba Thng Hai
in Bin
3 Ph
4 Ng Gia T
5 Hung Vng
T Hin
6 Thnh
7 L Thi T
Nguyn Tri
8 Phng
Ly Thng
9 Kit
L Hng
10 Phong

im u

Bc Hi
Cch Mng
Thng 8
Ng 7 L
Thi T
Ng 7 L
Thi T
L Thi T
Cch Mng
Thng Tm
Ba Thng
Hai
T Hin
Thnh
Ng 4 By
Hin
H K Ha

Chiu
rng
mt
ng
(m)

Ln

23

12600

18

10800

15

9000

Ng Quyn
Nguyn Ch
Thanh

18

10800

5400

L Gia
Nguyn Th
Minh Khai
Ng 6
Nguyn Tri
Phng
Nguyn Ch
Thanh
Trn Hng
o

18

9600

23

12600

18

9600

22

12600

18

10800

im cui

Cng Trng
Dn Ch
L Thng
Kit
Cch Mng
Thng Tm

S
ln

Kh
nng
thng
hnh

S
chiu

Vi kch bn ny th lu lng CPU vn theo hng tip cn nh kch bn

1 tuy nhin vi vic m rng mng li theo quy hoch ca thnh ph gii quyt
tnh trng qu ti trn cc tuyn ng.
Lu lng PCU l lu lng xe con quy i.
Vi kch bn ny th lu lng ni qun c th hin nh sau:

V THANH TUN_QG10

Trang 119

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Hnh 4.39 Lu lng PCU ni qun 10 kch bn 2 (I-I)

kch bn 2 ny, th vic m rng cc trc ng chnh trn a bn khng
nh hng nhiu n Lu lng PCU ni qun. Lu lng PCU ni qun c
phn b trn hu ht trn tt c cc tuyn ng trn a bn, a phn tp trung ln
nhng tuyn ng chnh kt ni tm cc Zone ni vng vi nhau.
Lu lng PCU i li trong khu vc nghin cu:

V THANH TUN_QG10

Trang 120

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Hnh 4.40 Lu lng PCU khu vc nghin cu kch bn 2

V THANH TUN_QG10

Trang 121

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Cng nh kch bn 1, kch bn 2 ny lu lng CPU khu vc nghin

cu phn b ch yu trn cc tuyn ng chnh, ng trc chnh ca khu vc
qun nh: ng Ba Thng Hai, L Thng Kit, in Bin Ph, Cch Mng
Thng 8, Nguyn Tri Phng, S Vn Hnh
Hng Bc Nam : lu lng phn b tp trung trn cc tuyn Cch mng
thng 8. Ngoi ra, mt phn lu lng cng i vo cc ng trc chnh ca khu
vc qun.
Hng ng Ty: lu lng phn b tp trung trn cc tuyn Ba Thng
Hai, Ng Gia T, in Bin Ph.
Mc phc v:

Hnh 4.41 nh gi mc phc v kch bn 2

Nhn chung cc tuyn ng trong khu vc ni qun cng nh cc trc kt
ni vi cc vng bn ngoi lu thng n nh, khng cn tnh trng tc nghn nh
kch bn gi nguyn hin trng.

V THANH TUN_QG10

Trang 122

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Thi gian i li trn mng li: Vi gi nh rng thi gian i li khng

b nh hng bi nt giao v n tn hiu. (n v: Pht)

Hnh 4.42 Thi gian i li b qua nh hng ca nt giao, n tn hiu kch

bn 2
4.3. nh gi kh nng thng hnh qua cc nt in hnh
Kh nng thng hnh ca mt nt giao thng c iu khin bng n tn
hiu l tng kh nng thng hnh ca cc ng dn vo nt trong mt n v thi
gian (thng l gi xanh). Trong phn mm Cube Citilab, nh gi kh nng thng
hnh qua nt c da theo b tiu chun HCM 2000 ( Highway Capacity Manual).
Thi gian delay ny c tnh cho n v l giy nn trong kt qu xut ra ca Cube
Citilab (n v pht) phi c quy i v so snh vi cc mc theo HCM 2000.
nh gi kh nng thng hnh qua nt giao c la chn theo tiu ch thi gian tr
hon (Delay) cc mc sau:

V THANH TUN_QG10

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CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Hnh 4.43 Mc kh nng thng hnh qua nt giao theo HCM 2000
Ngun: Los Criteria For Signalized Intersections HCM 2000
4.3.1 Nt giao Ng 4 Ba Thng Hai L Hng Phong
Nt giao Ng 4 Ba Thng Hai L Hng Phong l nt giao ct kh quang
trng ca khu vc Qun vi tuyn ng Ba Thng Hai l trc ng chnh, l trc
ng Ty ca Thnh Ph. Tuyn ng L Hng Phong l tuyn ng lin Qun,
kt ni khu vc ni Qun vi khu vc khc.

Hnh 4.44 nh gi mc phc v nt giao Ng 4 BTH LHP kch bn 1

V THANH TUN_QG10

Trang 124

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

kch bn 1, vi mng li ng hin ti mc nh gi phc v chung

y l D. Cc hng t Ba Thng Hai im 173 i v t 301 i L Hng Phong 235
vi thi gian delay mc 1.29 l kh ln nn mc nh gi l E dng khng n
nh, ng lm vic trng thi gii hn, bt k tr ngi no cng gy tc xe. Cc
hng cn li c nh gi mc B dng xe tng i n nh.
Trc ng Ba Thng Hai l trc ng chnh, trc ng ng Ty ca
khu vc v vy lu lng tp trung kh ln nn nh gi chung th cc hng Ba
Thng Hai i mc phc v D v E l hai mc cn cnh bo trng thi mt n nh
ca dng xe. Hng cn li L Hng Phong i l trc ng ni , lu lng ch
yu l phc v cho nhu cu i li cho ni vng v vy c nh gi tt hn mc
B dng xe tng i n nh.

Hnh 4.45 nh gi mc phc v nt giao Ng 4 BTH LHP kch bn 2

kch bn 2, vi mng li ng m rng theo iu chnh quy hoch
chung ca Thnh ph, th mc nh gi chung ca nt l B dng xe trng thi tt,
V THANH TUN_QG10

Trang 125

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

lu thng n nh vi cc hng c c nh gi mc phc v A v B. Thi

gian tr hon mc kh thp t 0.15-0.25 pht. Kch bn 2 ny ph hp vi tnh
hnh thc t ca d bo nm 2020.
4.3.2 Nt giao Ng 4 Nguyn Tri Phng B Ht
Nt giao Ng 4 Nguyn Tri Phng B Ht l nt giao trong khu vc ni
Qun, vi Tuyn ng Nguyn Tri Phng l trc chnh ca Qun, kt ni cc
Zone trong khu vc vi nhau. Tuyn B Ht l tuyn ng mang tnh cht ni b,
kt ni cc khu vc dn c, phc v cho lu lng trn Zone i qua.

Hnh 4.46 nh gi mc phc v nt giaoNg 4 NTPBH kch bn 1

V THANH TUN_QG10

Trang 126

CHNG 4: D BO GIAO THNG

Hnh 4.47 nh gi mc phc v nt giaoNg 4 NTPBH kch bn 2

Vi nt giao Nguyn Tri Phng B Ht l nt giao mang tnh cht ni
b, a s ch phc v cho dng lu lng ni vng nn mc phc v c nh
gi l A n nh, khng b tc ngn. Chnh v l nt giao mang tnh cht ni b
Qun nn c hai kch bn, th dng lu lng qua nt giao ny khng b tc ng
nhiu.

V THANH TUN_QG10

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