PERT & CPM

Exercise 1
Find the Duration, Standard Deviation and Variance by using appropriate formula
for the below table:

TASK Activities Estimates

ID Pred. Succ. to tm tp

Grow donor plants a - b 16 20 24

Cross & harvest F1 seeds b a c 4 5 8

Rear F1 plants c b e 8 12 16

Procure chemicals, etc. d - e 12 20 32

Determine polar stage; plant F1 anthers for induction e d, c g 4 10 12

Prepare aseptic growth room f - g 8 12 20

Plant calli; regenerate plants; screen for salt tolerance g e, f h 4 8 12

Screen plantlets in culture solution for salt tolerance h g i 4 5 8

Identify haploids; create diploids i h j 4 5 8

Transfer plantlets to field for screening and seed production j i k 8 12 16

Screen material at Network sites k j I 12 20 25

Select homozygous lines for agro-edaphic environments I k m 16 20 24

Test material in on-station trials m I n 16 20 24

Data analysis n m o 4 8 12

Nominate entries for National Screening Nursery o n p 16 20 25

Promote entries to National Trials p o q 30 40 50

Evaluate on-farm in farmers' fields q p r 15 . 20 24

Farmers' Field Days r p d1 3 4 5

Release of cultivar by Variety Release Committees s q t 5 8 12

Overall analysis and report writing t s - 10 12 15

Dummy d1 p s
Exercise 2
A small project is composed of 7 activities whose time estimates are listed
in the table below. Activities are identified by their beginning (i) and ending
(j) node numbers.

(a) Draw the project network and identify all the paths through it.

(b) Find the expected duration and variance for each activity. What is
the expected project length?

(c) Calculate the variance and standard deviation of project length.

What is the probability that the project will be completed:

(i) At least weeks earlier than expected?

(ii) No more than 3 weeks later than expected?

(d) If the project due date is 18 weeks, what is the probability of not
meeting the due date?

(e) What due date has about 90% chance of being met?

Activity Estimated duration in weeks

i-j Optimistic most likely Pessimistic
1-2 1 1 7
1-3 1 4 7
1-4 2 2 8
2-5 1 1 1
3-5 2 5 14
4-6 2 5 8
5-6 3 6 15