Coastal Strom 3

Briefing Headline...
Decision Support Briefing #3

As of: 430 PM Mar 01, 2018
What Has Changed?
High Wind Warning expanded for

NYC, the remainder of Long Island
and Coastal CT, and S Westchester
County
Winter Storm Warning issued for
Orange County and Winter Weather
Advisory for W Passaic, Putnam
and N Fairfield Counties. Wind
Advisory winds are included in both
the warning and advisory
Wind Advisory issued for most of
NE NJ and the remainder of the
Lower Hudson Valley and interior S
CT
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created
New York, NY Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 3/1/2018 5:33 PM 1
Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
• Minor to moderate coastal flooding Vulnerable locales along NY
• Inundation of 2 to 3 ft above ground Harbor, S and E Bays of LI, High Tide Cycles from Friday
Coastal in vulnerable areas and LI Sound as well as morning through Saturday
Impacts • Areas of dune erosion and localized Jamaica Bay, highest threat S night
overwashes Queens/S Nassau
• Wind gusts of 50 to 60 kt
Marine • Seas 8 to 16 ft, highest east of Fire
Waters Around Long
Island Inlet Friday and Friday night
Island
• Seas 3 to 6 ft on Long Island
Sound
• 25 to 40 gusts 50 to 60 MPH,
Damaging isolated 70 mph gusts over the Twin NYC, Long Island, Coastal
Winds Forks. Late Friday morning through
S CT and Northern New
• Widespread power outages and London County
Friday Night
trees down are likely
• 4-7” locally up to 10 – Orange
County
• 2-4” locally up to 6” – W Orange County NY and
Heavy Wet Passaic/Putnam/N Fairfield
•
W Passaic/Putnam/N Friday and Friday Night
Snow Highest amounts elevations over
Fairfield Counties
800 ft
• Damage to tree limbs and
powerlines
• 2 to 3 inches, localized higher

Heavy amounts
Most of the Region Friday and Friday Night
• Potential poor drainage and small
Rain stream and river Flooding
Summary of Greatest Impacts
Coastal Flooding for shorelines of LI and NY Harbor,
Moderate Flooding for Southern parts of Nassau and Queens
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Storm Force Winds: Waters Around Long Island

Damaging Winds: NYC, Long Island, Coastal S CT and

Northern New London County
Heavy Snow: Orange County and Higher elevations of W

Passaic, Putnam and N Fairfield Counties
Fresh Water Flooding: Much of the Region


Coastal Flooding
• Minor to Moderate coastal flooding

expected Friday Morning.
• Inundation of 1 to 2 ft above ground
in vulnerable areas
• Widespread moderate coastal

flooding possible during times of
high tide Friday Night through
Saturday Night along Jamaica Bay,
southern and eastern bays of Long
Island, including the Atlantic Ocean
beachfront.
• Inundation of 2 to 3 ft above ground
in vulnerable areas
• Areas of dune erosion and localized

overwashes along the Atlantic
Ocean beachfront
Strong to Damaging Winds
 Wind gusts 50 - 60 mph,
local gusts up to 70 mph
east LI, for NYC, Long
Island, Coastal CT and N
New London. Gusts 40-55
mph elsewhere.
 Strongest winds Friday
afternoon through Friday
night
 Damaging winds will be

capable of downing trees
and power lines with
resulting power outages,
highest threat Long Island
and Coastal CT
 Travel difficult for high

profile vehicles
Heavy Wet Snow
 Forecast total snow of 4 – 7”
locally up to 10” for Orange;
2-4” locally up to 6” for W
Expected Passaic/Putnam/N Fairfield
Snowfall Counties
 highest snow at
elevations above 800 ft
 Generally less than 1 inch
snow expected over
remainder of region.
However, high end possibility
of getting 2-4+” of snow in
High End these areas.
Snowfall
Possible  Timing: Friday Morning
through Friday Night
 Difficult travel conditions.
Power Outages likely.
Heavy Rain
 2-3 inches total rain, with

locally higher amounts
 Smaller rivers and streams

will be most vulnerable to
possibility of flooding
 Poor drainage urban

flooding is possible

Forecast Uncertainty or Scenarios
 Magnitude of the Coastal Flooding Friday Night

into Saturday night dependent on track and
intensity of the low
 Will be predicated on proximity of low pressure to the coast
and how quickly it moves away
 A more rapid intensification may turn rain over to

snow in higher terrain of NE NJ, the lower Hudson
Valley and interior SW CT quicker
 Snow amounts could be several inches higher than forecast
in this case
 Potential for a period of accumulating snow all the

way to coast Friday afternoon/night.

 5 Main Impacts Event Summary
 Prolonged minor to moderate coastal flooding threat
 Strong to Damaging winds, especially for Eastern Long Island and
Southeast CT
 Heavy rain across much of the region
 Accumulating snow 2–10” inches from W Passaic, Orange, Putnam and N
Fairfield Counties. Highest amounts over Orange County and elevations
above 800 ft.
 Dangerous Conditions for Mariners over all waters around Long Island
 High Wind Threat: 50 – 60+ mph gusts, highest threat for coastal waters,
Long Island and Southern CT, downed trees and wires with power outages
 Several tidal cycles of Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding: Highest threat

will be along Atlantic Coast, Southern Bay of Long Island and Queens, and
Twin Forks of LI
 Freshwater Flood Threat: Across much of the region, potential for significant
flooding of poor drainage and urban areas, as well as smaller rivers and
streams flooding
Contact and Next Briefing Information
Next Briefing
When: Around 530 AM Tomorrow (Fri)
Method: Email
Web: Facebook:
http://www.weather.gov/okx/ http://www.facebook.com/NWSNewYorkNY
Phone (public): Twitter:

631-924-0517 http://www.twitter.com/NWSNewYorkNY
YouTube:
E-mail: https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSNewYor
okx.operations@noaa.gov kNY
Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing is

time-sensitive, do not use after 6 AM Friday (03/02/18).


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Briefing Headline...

Decision Support Briefing #3

What Has Changed?

High Wind Warning expanded for

• 2 to 3 inches, localized higher

Storm Force Winds: Waters Around Long Island

Damaging Winds: NYC, Long Island, Coastal S CT and

Heavy Snow: Orange County and Higher elevations of W

Fresh Water Flooding: Much of the Region

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

• Minor to Moderate coastal flooding

• Widespread moderate coastal

• Areas of dune erosion and localized

 Damaging winds will be

 Travel difficult for high

 2-3 inches total rain, with

 Smaller rivers and streams

 Poor drainage urban

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

 Magnitude of the Coastal Flooding Friday Night

 A more rapid intensification may turn rain over to

 Potential for a period of accumulating snow all the

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

 Several tidal cycles of Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding: Highest threat

Phone (public): Twitter:

Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing is

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created

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