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IHACRES UserGuide PDF
IHACRES UserGuide PDF
www.toolkit.net.au/ihacres
USER GUIDE
Document History
Date Author Version Edition Description of Change
2 Feb 2004 Susan Cuddy V1 First compilation of material
24 Nov 2004 Felix Andrews V1.1 Fixed definitions of objective functions, v2.0.0.
30 Nov 2004 Susan Cuddy V1.2 Synched with website details, v2.0.0
Synched with software version for transfer to toolkit product.
11 Jan 2005 Susan Cuddy v2.1
Amended minor errors
19 Jan 2005 Nick Murray v2.1 Fixed minor formatting errors & updated to latest Template
14 Feb 2005 Susan Cuddy v2.1 First Finalised for release
28 Apr 2005 Susan Cuddy v2.1.0 Second Updates to description of Instrumental Variable
Copyright notice
© The Australian National University, Australia 2005
Legal Information
To the extend permitted by law, the Australian National University and the Cooperative Research Centre for
Catchment Hydrology (including its employees and consultants) accept no responsibility and exclude all
liability whatsoever in respect of any person's use or reliance on this publication or any part of it.
Availability
Distribution of the IHACRES software package is via the CRC for Catchment Hydrology’s Catchment
Modelling Toolkit website under an agreement between the Integrated Catchment Assessment and
Management (iCAM) Centre of The Australian National University and the Cooperative Research Centre for
Catchment Hydrology.
The Product Manager for IHACRES is Dr Barry Croke of the iCAM Centre, The Australian National
University, barry.croke@anu.edu.au.
Reference
Croke, BFW, F Andrews, J Spate and SM Cuddy (2005) IHACRES User Guide. Technical Report 2005/19.
Second Edition. iCAM, School of Resources, Environment and Society, The Australian National University,
Canberra. http://www.toolkit.net.au/ihacres
Contact Details
CRCCH Toolkit website - http://www.toolkit.net.au
Integrated Catchment Assessment and Management Centre
http://icam.anu.edu.au/
School of Resources, Environment and Society
Building 48A Linneaus Way
The Australian National University
Acton ACT 0200
Revisions
IHACRES is under active development and has a planned delivery schedule of new and/or revised features
for the period 2004-2005. This User Guide will be updated as necessary to reflect these revisions.
Acknowledgements
IHACRES v2 is a major reimplementation of the original IHACRES model (hereafter known as
the Classic version).
It has been recoded to incorporate additional functionality by its ANU development team,
with the support of a team of beta testers who have extensive experience with the original
version of IHACRES. The development team would like to acknowledge the contribution
made by the following testers:
• Dr Ian Littlewood, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, UK
• Dr Jeff Chanat, Univesity of Virginia, USA
• Dr Teemu Kokkonen, Helsinki University of Technology, Finland
• Dr Barbara Baginska, Environment Protection, Department of Environment and
Conservation, New South Wales, Australia.
Coding and core debugging have been by Alex Luddy and Felix Andrews of the ANU
development team within the Integrated Catchment Assessment and Management (iCAM)
Centre.
Tutorials have been designed and written by Jessica Spate, a PhD student at ANU and in-
house tested by Michael Kehoe.
This User Guide has been compiled by Susan Cuddy, iCAM Centre and CSIRO Land and
Water, from material written by Alex Luddy, Barry Croke, Felix Andrews and Jessica Spate.
Contents
IHACRES
CONTENTS
1 Introduction...........................................................1
1.1 The user guide.............................................................................................. 1
1.2 IHACRES...................................................................................................... 2
1.2.1 Overview .................................................................................... 2
1.2.2 Features ..................................................................................... 2
1.2.3 Audience .................................................................................... 3
1.3 Data requirements......................................................................................... 3
1.3.1 Input data................................................................................... 3
1.3.2 Predicted or calculated data.......................................................... 3
1.4 Product components...................................................................................... 3
1.5 Supporting material....................................................................................... 4
1.5.1 Companion documents ................................................................ 4
1.5.2 Key scientific references ................................................................ 4
Original IHACRES model.............................................................. 4
PC-IHACRES (Classic v1).............................................................. 4
IHACRES_v2.0 (Classic Plus) ......................................................... 4
Modification for ephemeral catchments .......................................... 4
Catchment moisture deficit............................................................ 4
1.5.3 Workshops.................................................................................. 5
2 Installation ............................................................6
2.1 Technical specifications.................................................................................. 6
2.2 Licence agreement ........................................................................................ 6
2.3 Folders ........................................................................................................ 7
2.4 Installation ................................................................................................... 7
2.4.1 Windows and non-Windows.......................................................... 7
2.4.2 Data .......................................................................................... 7
2.4.3 Start menu icons.......................................................................... 7
2.5 Uninstalling IHACRES .................................................................................... 7
2.6 User interface ............................................................................................... 8
2.6.1 Terminology................................................................................ 8
2.6.2 Charting functions ....................................................................... 8
2.6.3 Navigation.................................................................................. 9
3 A quick tour.........................................................10
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IHACRES User Guide
4 Using IHACRES....................................................14
4.1 General concepts.........................................................................................14
4.1.1 Project files ................................................................................14
4.1.2 Statistics ....................................................................................14
4.2 Data...........................................................................................................15
4.2.1 Data > Summary .......................................................................15
4.2.2 Data > Import ...........................................................................15
4.2.3 Data > View ..............................................................................16
4.3 Calibration..................................................................................................16
4.3.1 Calibration > Periods .................................................................16
Add a calibration period..............................................................17
Remove a calibration period ........................................................17
Multiple calibration periods .........................................................17
4.3.2 Calibration > Model ..................................................................17
4.3.3 Calibration > Model - Linear Module ...........................................18
Model > Delay ..........................................................................18
Model > Cross correlation ..........................................................18
Model > Instrumental Variable ....................................................18
Model > Fixed Transfer Function..................................................19
4.3.4 Calibration > Model - Non Linear Module....................................19
Model > Grid Search .................................................................19
Grid Search > Pre Grid Search....................................................19
Grid Search > Run Grid Search...................................................20
Grid Search > Charts .................................................................20
Grid Search > Post Grid Search...................................................21
Grid Search > Analysis ...............................................................21
4.4 Simulation...................................................................................................22
4.4.1 Simulation > Calibration.............................................................22
4.4.2 Simulation > Simulation Summary................................................22
4.4.3 Simulation > Statistic Summary ....................................................22
4.4.4 Simulation > Charts ...................................................................23
4.4.5 Simulation > Hydrograph............................................................23
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Contents
5 Tutorial ...............................................................24
5.1 Overview ................................................................................................... 24
5.2 Steps ......................................................................................................... 24
5.3 Step 1 – load the data ................................................................................. 25
5.3.1 Observed rainfall....................................................................... 25
5.3.2 Observed streamflow ................................................................. 26
5.3.3 Temperature ............................................................................. 27
5.4 Step 2 – check the data ............................................................................... 27
5.4.1 Data > Summary ...................................................................... 27
5.4.2 Data > View ............................................................................. 27
5.5 Step 3 – define the calibration period(s) ......................................................... 28
5.6 Step 4 – calibrate the linear module .............................................................. 29
5.6.1 Cross-Correlation ...................................................................... 29
Pre Cross Correlation................................................................. 29
Instrumental Variable ................................................................. 30
5.7 Step 5 – calibrate the non-linear module ....................................................... 30
5.7.1 Grid search............................................................................... 30
Pre Grid Search......................................................................... 30
Instrumental Variable ................................................................. 31
Post Grid Search – find a suitable parameter set............................ 32
Post Grid search – refine the parameter set................................... 34
Accept the parameter set ............................................................ 34
5.8 Step 6 - simulation ...................................................................................... 36
Statistic Summary....................................................................... 36
Discussion of simulation results.................................................... 37
Simulation summary................................................................... 37
Charts ...................................................................................... 37
5.9 Exercise...................................................................................................... 38
6 Fitting models......................................................39
6.1 Calibration................................................................................................. 39
6.1.1 Linear module ........................................................................... 39
Instrumental variable (IV) estimator .............................................. 39
Fixed transfer function ................................................................ 40
6.2 Model performance..................................................................................... 40
6.2.1 Calibration period ..................................................................... 40
6.2.2 Catchment size.......................................................................... 41
6.2.3 Timestep................................................................................... 41
Monthly data............................................................................. 41
Catchment size and timestep....................................................... 41
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IHACRES User Guide
7 Troubleshooting ..................................................43
7.1 NaN...........................................................................................................43
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Contents
TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 3-1 IHACRES command panel ...............................................................................................10
Figure 3-2 Data > Summary Panel showing the status of the Murrindindi tutorial data ..........................11
Figure 3-3 Calibration > Model panel .............................................................................................12
Figure 3-4 Calibration > Model panel after model calibration............................................................13
Figure 3-5 Simulation > Calibration > Streamflow panel after calibration complete .............................13
Figure 5-1 Data Summary screen for Murrindindi River (Data > Summary)............................................25
Figure 5-2. Import screen showing Murrindindi streamflow and rainfall data (Data > Import)..................26
Figure 5-3 Viewing Murrindindi River data (Data > View) ....................................................................28
Figure 5-4 Calibration periods screen for Murrindindi (Calibration > Periods) .......................................28
Figure 5-5 Pre Cross Correlation Chart for Murrindindi data (Calibration > Calibration Period 1 >
Pre Cross Correlation) ......................................................................................................30
Figure 5-6 Grid Search parameters for Murrindindi data (Calibration > Calibration Period 1 > Pre
Grid Search) ....................................................................................................................32
Figure 5-7 Grid search results for Murrindindi, sorted by Efficiency (R2) (Calibration > Calibration
Period 1 > Post Grid Search) ............................................................................................33
Figure 5-8 Analysis of Most Efficient (R2) Grid Search result for Murrindindi streamflow (Calibration >
Calibration Period 1 > Analysis > Streamflow) ...................................................................33
Figure 5-9 Accepted parameter sets for Murrindindi (Calibration > Calibration Period 1 > Analysis).......35
Figure 5-10 Calibrated model for Murrindindi River ............................................................................35
Figure 5-11 Hydrograph of simulated vs observed flow for Murrindindi (Simulation) ...............................36
Figure 5-12 Statistic Summary for Murrindindi simulation (Simulation > Statistic summary) .....................37
TABLE OF TABLES
Table 2.1 2D chart manipulation functions..........................................................................................8
Table 2.2 3D chart manipulation functions..........................................................................................8
Table 2.3 Chart range selector functions.............................................................................................9
Table 3.1 File > Menu actions.........................................................................................................11
Table 4.1 Statistics used in IHACRES ................................................................................................14
Table 4.2 Table of Post Grid Search Chart types................................................................................20
Table 4.3 Chart types available when displaying Simulation Data........................................................23
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Introduction
1 Introduction
IHACRES is a catchment-scale rainfall-streamflow modelling methodology. Its purpose is to
assist the hydrologist or water resources engineer to characterise the dynamic relationship
between basin rainfall and streamflow. Applications include:
• identification of unit hydrographs
• continuous time series streamflow modelling
• environmental change – hydrological regime studies
• runoff event modelling
• hydrograph separation (for example, to assist with water quality investigations)
• derivation of a Slow Flow Index
• derivation of Dynamic Response Characteristics
• investigation of relationships between Dynamic Response Characteristics and physical
catchment descriptors
• teaching unit hydrograph theory and its applications
• hydrometric data quality assurance/control (QA/QC)
• infilling missing streamflow data.
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IHACRES User Guide
1.2 IHACRES
1.2.1 Overview
The emphasis in IHACRES is on modelling identifiable catchment-scale rainfall-runoff
behaviour rather than the small-scale hydrological processes by which rainfall causes
streamflow.
To run IHACRES, it must first be calibrated to optimise the performance over a known period.
In this way a catchment can be characterised by a small set of parameters. The model takes
as input, once calibrated, time series of rainfall and either temperature or potential evapo-
transpiration. The output is a time series of modelled stream flow. For the calibration period
and the validation period, observed stream flow is also available – this allows measures of
performance to be computed.
Calibration has two modules, in series:
• a non-linear loss module
• A linear unit hydrograph module.
The linear relationship between effective rainfall and streamflow allows the application of
well-known unit hydrograph theory which conceptualises the catchment as a configuration of
linear storages acting in series and/or parallel. All of the non-linearity commonly observed
between rainfall and streamflow is accommodated in the (non-linear loss) module which
converts rainfall to effective rainfall.
Conceptualisation of spatially distributed processes in both the non-linear and linear modules
is restricted. An advantage of this spatially “lumped” approach is that the model requires
only a small number of parameters, typically six (3 for the non-linear loss module and 3 for
the linear unit hydrograph module). Despite this structural simplicity, the IHACRES
methodology performs well for many types of catchment.
The IHACRES Classic Plus package is built on the Java platform and requires the Java
Runtime Environment, Java3D and VisAD (Visualisation for Algorithm Development) to be
installed on the computer. Version specifications and download sites for these software
packages are given in Section 2.1.
1.2.2 Features
IHACRES Classic Plus is a (Java) re-development of the original PC-Windows version
(Littlewood et al., 1997) . It retains all the original features, plus:
• the original non-linear loss module including the extension for ephemeral catchments
made by Ye et al, 1997)
• extension of the linear routing module to include all possible second order transfer
functions
• a cross correlation tool
• additional goodness of fit indicators
• visualisation tools including zoomable and 3-D plots.
While the last feature is purely an enhancement, the others are refinements of core methods
and are described in the key references.
Features under development include:
• baseflow filtering
• direct estimation of the unit hydrograph
• spectral analysis tools
2
Introduction
• the catchment moisture deficit (CMD) version of the non-linear module (Croke and
Jakeman, 2004).
1.2.3 Audience
The IHACRES software is intended for scientists and practitioners who are interested in the
development of predictive models of catchment runoff.
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IHACRES User Guide
4
Introduction
1.5.3 Workshops
Training workshops are available on demand. Contact the Product Manager1 for details or
see www.toolkit.net.au/training.
1
Name and contact details of the current Product Manager are available from the IHACRES
Product page of the CRCCH Modelling Toolkit website http://www.toolkit.net.au. Details (current
at the production of this User Guide) are on the inside cover of this Guide.
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IHACRES User Guide
2 Installation
2.1 Technical specifications
IHACRES is built on the Java platform and is platform independent.
Type of machine
Minimum CPU Pentium II (equivalent of)
Minimum memory 128Mb
Minimum available 10Mb, dependent on number of projects that are created. Project size is a
disk space function of the length of the time series which determines the size of the input and
output files. Allow a few Mb per project.
Operating system Platform Independent
Other supporting You must install or have installed:
software 1. A version of the Java Runtime Environment that is not older than 1.4. The latest
version (approx 7MB) can be downloaded from http://java.sun.com/getjava.
2. Java3D to use the advanced chart features. The latest version (approx 7MB)
can be downloaded from http://java.sun.com/products/java-
media/3D/download.html .
This release is packaged using an across-platform installer. The installation does not update
the Windows registry.
Note If you are using a networked computer, then inform your system
administrator BEFORE installing the supporting software as there may
be other applications on your computer that could be affected by these
updates.
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Installation
2.3 Folders
The IHACRES install defaults to installing the package in C:\Program Files\Toolkit\IHACRES.
It creates 3 directories:
• ProductFiles
• Tutorials
• Uninstaller
The root directory contains the User Guide (in pdf format), release notes (RelNotes.txt), the
licence agreement (Licence.txt) and run.bat which initiates the Java environment and the
IHACRES software.
On install, an IHACRES program group is created in the Start program list.
It is recommended that users create their own directory structure for managing their project
data that is external to the IHACRES package directories.
2.4 Installation
2.4.2 Data
Data for four river systems, including the Murrindindi tutorial used in this User Guide, are
distributed with the package. It is intended that additional tutorials and exercises, with their
data, will be available from the IHACRES Modelling Toolkit Product web page.
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IHACRES User Guide
2.6.1 Terminology
Terminology used in this Guide to describe user interface actions is set out below. The
IHACRES package uses tabs for navigation – these can occur at multiple levels – ie most
tabs have their own set of tabs.
The instructions assume that clicking the left button on your mouse is your Select operation.
If this is not the case, then adjust the instructions accordingly.
Tab Move the cursor over the tab and Select. The
tab’s panel appears.
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Installation
Many charts within IHACRES use a range selector. A range selector is a control that allows
you to select a sub range of the chart data to display. A range selector can be manipulated
in two ways.
Some range selectors also allow input of specific time step numbers for the start and end
points, or as dates for the start and end points.
2.6.3 Navigation
The use of tabs with associated panels provides for relatively easy navigation. This is
particularly important when working with multiple occurrences of a component, such as
multiple calibration periods.
Within this Guide > is used to indicate a navigation path. For example, Calibration >
Model means that Model is accessed from (and after) Calibration.
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IHACRES User Guide
3 A quick tour
3.1 Getting started
The three major modes of the IHACRES package are Data, Calibration and Simulation.
Navigation between these is via horizontal tabs at the top of each panel. Within each major
mode, there are also minor modes shown as a lower horizontal set of tabs.
IHACRES starts with a new, empty project. You can begin the new project by importing the
required datasets within the Import tab, or alternatively you can open a saved project by
choosing Open for the File menu.
10
A quick tour
File > About gives details of the version number of the software and other
acknowledgements.
3.2.1 Data
Each component has its own set of tabs to provide navigation. The Data component has
three tabs that provide access to
• a Summary of the data currently loaded (if any)
• an Import tool to load in the required input time series data, and
• View tools to interrogate the loaded data.
The Data > Summary panel for the Murrindindi tutorial data looks like:
Figure 3-2 Data > Summary Panel showing the status of the Murrindindi tutorial data
The Import and View tools are described in Section 4.2, with guided instruction in the tutorial
in Section 5.
3.2.2 Calibration
Calibration mode has two tabs that allow you to
• define the calibration Periods
• build the Model (the linear and non-linear modules).
The first time that you enter Calibration mode, the lack of information in the panel lets you
know that you have a little work to do in defining the period and the model! The tutorial
walks you through these definitions in practical detail. Just so you know what you need to
do, here is the Calibration > Model entry panel:
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IHACRES User Guide
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A quick tour
3.2.3 Simulation
There is no simulation information to observe until the Calibration is complete. Once this is
done, Simulation provides access to extensive analytical tools to explore the predicted
streamflow time series. The entry panel is the Simulation > Calibration Period 1 >
Calibration > Streamflow panel which is shown in Figure 3-5.
Figure 3-5 Simulation > Calibration > Streamflow panel after calibration complete
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IHACRES User Guide
4 Using IHACRES
4.1 General concepts
4.1.2 Statistics
Throughout IHACRES various statistics are used. These are described in Table 4.1. In
reading these statistics,
∑ (Q − QM )
Bias Overall error in flow volume, in mm
per year O
∑ (Q − Q )
Relative Bias
O M
∑Q O
∑ (Q − Q )
R Squared Measure of fit between observed 2
and modelled streamflow
1−
O M
∑ (Q − Q )
2
O O
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Using IHACRES
∑( Q )
R2_sqrt Variation of R Squared, giving less 2
weight to peak flows − QM
1−
∑( Q )
O
2
O − QO
R2_log Variation of R Squared, giving equal
∑ (ln(Q + ε ) − ln(Q M + ε ) )
2
weight to all flow percentiles
1−
O
∑ (ln(Q )
2
O + ε ) − ln(QO + ε )
R2_inv Variation of R Squared, giving more 2
weight to low flows ⎛ 1 1 ⎞
∑ ⎜⎜ Q + ε − Q + ε ⎟⎟
1− ⎝ O M ⎠
2
⎛ 1 1 ⎞
∑ ⎜⎜ Q + ε − Q + ε ⎟⎟
⎝ O O ⎠
U1 Auto-correlation of streamflow
X1 Cross correlation
Unless otherwise stated, the term ‘statistics’ used in this Guide refers to the above statistics.
4.2 Data
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IHACRES User Guide
The Start Time parameters refer to the time corresponding to the first time step of a time
series that is being imported. The start time is specified by adjusting the Year, Month, Day,
Hour and Minute list boxes so as the correct start time is shown.
The Time Step parameter refers to the time between each time step of a time series that is
being imported. The time step is specified by selecting the units using the list box (Minutes,
Hours or Days) and specifying an amount using the text field.
The import process involves 4 steps:
1 Select a cell on the Import File Data table that is within the column corresponding to
the time series that is to be imported. Clicking a table cell will select the table column.
A table cell that is selected has a yellow border.
2 Select the type of the time series that is being imported by clicking on the appropriate
tab – Obs. Rain (observed rainfall), Temperature or Obs. Stream. (observed
streamflow).
3 Select the unit of the time series being imported using the Unit list box. The contents of
the Unit list box are dependent on the type of the currently selected time series. The
available units are listed in Section 1.3.1.
4 Press the Import button. If the select unit requires a catchment area value then you
will be asked to specify the catchment area value (in sq km) using a dialog box after
the Import button is pressed.
It is possible to import data for different data types from different raw data files.
When all time series have been initialised they will be automatically synchronised.
4.3 Calibration
Calibration requires:
• establishing the calibration period (or periods)
• defining the linear module
• defining the non-linear module.
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Using IHACRES
The start and end of a calibration period are specified using the range selector that appears
at the bottom of the Periods panel. The range of the charts is controlled by the range
selector. When using the range slider to specify a calibration period the start of the selected
range corresponds to the start of the calibration period and the finish of the selected range
corresponds to the finish of the calibration period.
To remove a calibration period right click on the entry in the table below the Add Calibration
period button corresponding to the calibration period that is to be removed. When a
calibration period is removed it is no longer displayed in the table. All calibration periods
can be removed by pressing the Clear All button.
If a calibration period has an associated calibration then that calibration will be removed
when the calibration period is removed.
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IHACRES User Guide
Note In Version 2.1, only the Classic non-linear module and the Core linear
module are available. Functions under development for the linear
module include fixed exponential components, unit hydrograph, and
baseflow.
The current calibration state is shown in the text boxes in the bottom part of the Non Linear
Module and Linear Module areas.
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Using IHACRES
These store configurations determine the parameters and structure of the linear module. (The
numbers in brackets identify the form of the transfer function algorithm which is well
described in Young (2001)2).
The configuration of stores is identified from the time series of rainfall and discharge but is
typically either one store only, representing ephemeral streams, or two in parallel, allowing
baseflow or slowflow to be represented as well as quickflow. Only rarely does a more
complex configuration than this improve the fit to discharge measurements. This is restated
as a set of guidelines:
• For a catchment with a strong baseflow component (like the Murrindindi tutorial
example), check 2 Exponential Stores in Parallel (2,1);
• For a more ephemeral catchment, a Single Exponential Store (1,0) may suffice;
• For a ‘peakier’ structure with a baseflow component, the 2 Exponential Store and
Instantaneous Store in Parallel (2,2) structure might be appropriate.
• The Exponential Store and Instantaneous Store in parallel (1,1) is a slightly ‘peakier’
form of the Single Exponential Store (1,0);
• The 2 exponential Stores in Series (2,0) is rarely (if ever) used. It describes a
catchment which is represented as one exponential store draining to another.
More information on the Instrumental Variable estimator and selecting store configurations is
given in Chapter 6 – Fitting models.
Checking the box disables access to the alternate linear module calibrators.
2
Young, P. (2001) Data-based mechanistic modelling and validation of rainfall-flow processes.
In Model Validation: Perspectives in Hydrological Science, M. G. Anderson and P.D. Bates (eds),
Wiley. p117-161.
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IHACRES User Guide
Pressing the Run Grid Search button runs the grid search for the current calibration period.
When complete, two new tabs appear - Charts and Post Grid Search.
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Using IHACRES
Pressing the Create Chart button creates the chart as a new tab. The chart can be removed
by pressing its Remove Chart button (from the chart’s panel).
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IHACRES User Guide
4.4 Simulation
The Simulation panel allows for analysis of the data created as a result of running the
IHACRES model using the current specified calibrations. A calibration is a linear module
calibration combined with a non linear module calibration.
Each calibration period has its own tab which provides access (via a subset of tabs) to the
following details for each calibration period:
• Calibration
• Simulation Summary
• Statistic Summary
• Charts and
• Hydrograph.
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Using IHACRES
Pressing the Create Chart button creates the chart as a new tab. The chart can be removed
by pressing its Remove Chart button (on the chart’s panel).
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IHACRES User Guide
5 Tutorial
This Section presents the detail given in Section 4 in the form of a tutorial.
The tutorial builds a calibrated model for a sub-catchment of the Murrindindi River. This river
is a tributary of the Goulburn River, and is located north-east of Melbourne, Victoria, in
south-eastern Australia. The catchment is almost entirely forested, and has a very strong
baseflow component.
This tutorial contains observed streamflow, rainfall and temperature data for the period 8
June 1975 to 29 June 1998. These data are provided with the tutorial and should have
been installed in the Tutorials\Murrindindi sub-directory of IHACRES.
This tutorial is a simple demonstration of IHACRES functionality. The comparison of
modelled and measured streamflow for the catchment is shown in Figure 5-10. The
modelled flow reproduces the observed flow well, except for extreme events, where the
surface runoff is underestimated.
5.1 Overview
This tutorial uses just one calibration period and the Instrumental Variable linear module
function to calibrate the model. The first attempt at calibration uses default settings for
parameters. It then refines two parameters to improve the calibration fit.
The Instrumental Variable function determines the parameters for the linear module. The
alternative, i.e. using the Fixed Transfer function to determine the parameters and structure of
the linear module, is only recommended for experienced modellers.
5.2 Steps
There are 6 basic steps in setting up an IHACRES project.
Data Set up
Step 1 Load observed data
Step 2 Check the consistency and synchronisation of the data
Calibration
Step 3 Define the calibration period(s)
Step 4 Calibrate the linear module (by setting its parameters)
Step 5 Calibrate the non-linear module (by setting its parameters)
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Tutorial
Simulation
Step 6 Run the calibrated model in simulation mode to predict stream flow
Figure 5-1 Data Summary screen for Murrindindi River (Data > Summary)
As yet, we have no data loaded. This is the first thing we must do.
1 Select the Import tab to access the Data > Import screen. The same screen is used to
load:
a observed rainfall
b observed streamflow
c temperature.
In this example rainfall and streamflow series are stored as columns in the same file (pq.dat).
This is not a requirement and you may store them separately if you prefer.
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IHACRES User Guide
Figure 5-2. Import screen showing Murrindindi streamflow and rainfall data (Data > Import)
For daily data, you do not need to edit the Hour and Minute fields (leave as 0, the
default). The time step is 1 day (the default).
6 Press the Import button.
When the rainfall import is finished, a small window should pop up with the message Data
import complete. If it doesn’t, check that you have a column selected and all the options are
specified appropriately and try again.
Note Area is required for all streamflow units except mm/time step and must
be entered in km2.
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Tutorial
5.3.3 Temperature
1 Select the Temperature tab.
2 Find the file t.dat in the ‘Murrindindi’ folder. Temperature is in Column A. Select that
column and ensure that the date listed in the subsequent columns is consistent with
the Start time.
3 Select ‘Celsuis’ as the measurement Unit, then press the Import button.
The three series should now be correctly loaded. The following message will appear. Press
the OK button.
4 At this point, save your project file using File > Save as. This will create a .ipr file in
the directory of your choice.
3
The maximum number of days is calculated by IHACRES from the number of points in the
combined temperature, flow, and rainfall record.
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2 Click on the Periods tab to select some. A Calibration Chart appears (with default
display of streamflow for the whole period).
3 You can view Observed Rainfall, Temperature and Observed Streamflow by checking
their boxes at the top right. For now, ignore Runoff Coefficient.
Figure 5-4 Calibration periods screen for Murrindindi (Calibration > Periods)
Because this example has > 23 years of data you can use a large calibration period. It
should be as representative of the whole record as possible (this may take some trial and
error).
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Let’s use the four years from 8 June 1976 to 8 June 1980 (days 366 to 1827) with a warm-
up period of 200 days.
4 Warm Up period
a Press the Set button in the Warm Up box (bottom left) and enter a whole
number (in this example, 200).
b Press OK.
5 Calibration period
a Enter the start and end dates (6 June 1976 – 6 June 1980; days 366 – 1827)
using whichever method you prefer (described in Viewing Data > View5.4.2).
Remember to press Enter to update the graph.
b Press the Add Calibration Period button.
The start and end points of the selected period will appear in the Calibration
Period table.
Multiple calibration periods can be specified, but we will use only one.
6 Now, move back to the Model tab.
The Calibration Periods message should now display:
5.6.1 Cross-Correlation
The first step is to run a cross correlation between rainfall and streamflow to identify the delay
between these time series.
1 Click Cross-Correlation n the Linear Module area (the left hand area of the Model
panel).
2 Accept the default Lead (10) and Lag (30) options (recommended at this stage) and
click Run Cross Correlation.
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IHACRES User Guide
Figure 5-5 Pre Cross Correlation Chart for Murrindindi data (Calibration > Calibration Period 1 > Pre Cross
Correlation)
In this graph the black peak appears a little to the right of the blue and red. This identifies
that there is a delay between rainfall and streamflow. The consequence is that, on any given
day, streamflow is more correlated with yesterday’s rainfall than today’s. IHACRES has
estimated this delay at one (1) day, which appears in the small dialog box (at the bottom
middle of the panel).
You can override this delay estimate if you wish (and we will do so in this tutorial). Why?
One day delay is not very different to no delay.
3 Enter 0 in the ‘IHACRES Calculated Delay’ field and then click Set Delay
4 Click the (wide) Finished button at the bottom of the panel to exit pre cross
correlation.
Instrumental Variable
5 Back under the Models tab, check the Instrumental Variable box to control the linear
module calibration (this disables the Fixed Transfer Function option).
(Remember that you will set the store configuration on the Pre-Grid Search panel (next step).
We can now calibrate the non linear module.
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Tutorial
Note To overwrite these values (some other time), you just type alternate
values into the boxes.
A few simple commonsense rules must be obeyed, e.g. the maximum search value must be
larger than the minimum.
In the top right, you will see a calculation of the number of grid points. This is a good guide
to how long your search will take. Beware - large grid searches will use considerable
resources on your computer.
Instrumental Variable
In the Instrumental Variable area (bottom left), select a model for the storages that you think
best describes the catchment’s flow duration curve.
2 Check 2 Exponential Stores in Parallel (2,1) (the Murrindindi has a strong baseflow
component).
You should see this:
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IHACRES User Guide
Figure 5-6 Grid Search parameters for Murrindindi data (Calibration > Calibration Period 1 > Pre Grid
Search)
In this tutorial, we will calibrate only the first two (2) parameters. If the model performance is
not adequate, then some or all of the remaining parameters can be calibrated in a
subsequent grid search.
We are ready to perform the grid search.
3 Press the Run Grid Search button. A progress bar will pop up.
When the search is finished, two new tabs will appear to the right of the Pre Grid Search tab
- Charts and Post Grid Search.
Note You can re-size the columns by clicking and dragging the boundaries.
How to find a suitable parameter set? Firstly, find the ‘best’ R squared.
4 Sort (in descending sequence) the results by R2 (the column titled ‘R Squared’, or ‘R
Sq…’ or ‘R S…’) by clicking on any entry in that column and pressing Sort by Selected
Column.
The best R2 results will be in the top rows of the results table.
As you can see from Figure 5-7, the best R2 value is 0.853 - not a bad result for a first try.
The Bias for this point is 10.8 mm/year, which is acceptable.
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Tutorial
Figure 5-7 Grid search results for Murrindindi, sorted by Efficiency (R2) (Calibration > Calibration Period 1 >
Post Grid Search)
Let’s now investigate the model fit that produces these statistics.
5 Tick the box for this row (ie the top row) in the Analyse column (Column 1), and then
press the (wide) Analyse button at the bottom of the panel.
6 Click on the Streamflow tab to view a plot of modelled vs observed streamflow).
Figure 5-8 Analysis of Most Efficient (R2) Grid Search result for Murrindindi streamflow (Calibration >
Calibration Period 1 > Analysis > Streamflow)
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IHACRES User Guide
Notice that the best R2 values occur when the Drying Time constant (‘dryi…’, Column
3) is between 7 and 22, and Temperature Dependence of Tw (‘tem…’, Column 4) is
between 1.0 and 2.0.
Note You might like to save your initial grid search at this point by pressing
the Save Grid Search button ( bottom right on the Post Grid Search
panel).
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Tutorial
Figure 5-9 Accepted parameter sets for Murrindindi (Calibration > Calibration Period 1 > Analysis)
15 Press OK and then the (wide) Finished button (on the Analysis panel).
A confirmation message will appear, reminding you to save your grid search if you want to
use it later.
Note To Save, go to the Post Grid Search panel (using the Post Grid Search
tab) and press the Save Grid search button.
Once finished, you will be automatically returned to the Model panel, which will now look
like:
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IHACRES User Guide
As you can see, the flow is modelled reasonably well though the fit deteriorates over time. In
addition, the unusual large cluster of peaks towards the end of the record is not well
captured.
Statistic Summary
Let’s examine the statistics for each year.
2 Select the Statistic Summary tab to view a large range of statistics for each year.
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Tutorial
Figure 5-12 Statistic Summary for Murrindindi simulation (Simulation > Statistic summary)
3 Look at the R squared column. The R2 for years 20 onwards are particularly poor, in
keeping with what we saw on the hydrograph.
4 Look at the row with the label Rest in the Calibration column (Column 1, row 2). The
R2 = 0.659 and Bias = 29.430 mm/year.
5 Looking at the R squared values for individual years, we see quite a broad range of
performance statistic values, from R2 = 0.84 in year 16 to –0.086 in year 20 (which
corresponds to the 1995 drought). The largest bias is –147.424 mm/yr for year 9
(1983)
Simulation summary
6 You can also interrogate the raw observed and modelled data from the Simulation
Summary tab.
7 You can export all or any of the summary data to a comma separated variable (*.csv)
file but pressing the Export button at the bottom of the Summary panels.
Charts
Other plots can be created with the Charts tab. These can be one or a combination of
• observed rainfall
• observed streamflow
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IHACRES User Guide
• modelled streamflow
• temperature
• effective rainfall
• slow flow component
For example, observed and effective rainfall can be viewed together as separate plots by
checking the boxes next to each variable and then selecting the Multiple Charts option in the
Chart Visualisation Parameters section at the bottom of the panel.
You have now completed a brief IHACRES modeling process for the Murrindindi catchment
data. Save your project using File > Save or File > Save As …
5.9 Exercise
Slightly better results can be achieved for the Murrindindi catchment.
If you like, you can go back and give these options a try:
• Pick a different calibration period or multiple periods
• Experiment further with grid search options.
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Fitting models
6 Fitting models
While IHACRES provides extensive tools for exploring and assessing goodness of fit of
models, it takes experience and insight to determine what is a reasonable fit, whether it is
worth pushing the parameterisation to achieve a better fit, or whether that is the best that can
be achieved with the data.
This Chapter contains notes taken from IHACRES workshops to assist you develop this
expertise.
6.1 Calibration
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IHACRES User Guide
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Fitting models
focus of the application is on flood peaks, then the calibration period should include such
events. However, the uncertainty in such events is high due primarily to the uncertainty in the
rating curve. Thus, if the focus is on low flows, then flood peaks should be avoided as much
as possible. In temperate/humid catchments, a two to three year calibration period is usually
sufficient. In arid and semi arid catchments, a longer calibration period is generally needed
as flow events in such catchments are less frequent.
In summary, the selection is really a function of the purpose of the modelling exercise. Some
characteristics to look for:
• Good reliable input data
• A good variety/range of responses
• Avoid really high peaks, unless you want to model really high peaks.
6.2.3 Timestep
Monthly data
IHACRES supports the use of monthly data. However, you are limiting the information that
you are feeding into the model, in particular the linear module. Without the dynamics, you
can’t really calibrate the linear module.
A better approach would be to calibrate the model on a daily timestep, and then aggregate
results up to monthly.
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IHACRES User Guide
ungauged catchments (Post and Jakeman, 1999; Kokkonen et al, 2003; Sefton and
Howarth, 1998).
However, what you are really after is an optimal set of parameters rather than a set of
optimal parameter estimates. An alternative approach is to determine regional relationships
for catchment response characteristics rather than parameters. A characteristic could be the
runoff coefficient, or the shape of the flow duration curve (FDC). Then, estimates of the
catchment response characteristics for an ungauged site can be used to constrain the model
fit (Croke and Norton [2004]).
6.3 References
Croke, B.F.W. (2005) A technique for deriving the average event unit hydrograph from
streamflow-only data for quick-flow-dominant catchments, Advances in Water Resources.
Croke, B.F.W. and J.P. Norton (2004) Regionalisation of Rainfall-Runoff models, In Pahl, C.,
Schmidt, S., Rizzoli, A.E. and Jakeman, A.J. (eds.) Complexity and Integrated Resources
Management, Transactions of the 2nd Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental
Modelling and Software Society, Volume 3 pp. 1201-1207. iEMSs, June 2004.
Kokkonen, T.S., A.J. Jakeman, P.C. Young and H.J. Koivusalo. (2003) Predicting daily flows
in ungauged catchments: model regionalization from catchment descriptors at the Coweeta
Hydrologic Laboratory, North Carolina, Hydrological Processes 17, 2219–2238, 2003.
Post, D.A. and A.J. Jakeman. (1999) Predicting the daily streamflow of ungauged
catchments in S. E. Australia by regionalising the parameters of a lumped conceptual
rainfall-runoff model, Ecological Modelling, 123, 91-104, 1999.
Sefton, C.E.M. and S.M. Howarth. (1998) Relationships between dynamic response
characteristics and physical descriptors of catchments in England and Wales, Journal of
Hydrology, 211, 1-16, 1998.
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Troubleshooting
7 Troubleshooting
IHACRES is under continuous development and has a few known bugs. These are described
in the latest Release Notes (see RelNotes.txt in the IHACRES root directory).
You may also like to check through the IHACRES historical bug tracking system on the toolkit
website.
Bugs can be logged and tracked by users.
7.1 NaN
NaN (not a number) can appear in the statistics and summary reports and indicates a failed
calibration. It is usually produced when using the "two exponential and one instantaneous
store" linear model configuration.
Avoid using this model structure until the recursive instrumental variable estimator is
implemented.
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IHACRES User Guide
In this example the columns of interest are A and B which contain rainfall (in mm) and
streamflow. The other columns are not used by IHACRES import tool.
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Data Files
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