Safal Niveshak Stock Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.

www.safalniveshak.com

HOW TO USE THIS SPREADSHEET

Step 1 - This spreadsheet works only on Screener.in. The first step is to create a free account here - https://www.screener.in/re
Step 2 - After creating your account, while you are logged in to Screener.in website, visit this page - https://www.screener.in/ex
Step 3 - Visit the home page of Screener.in and choose a company of your choice. Once you do that, you will see details of you
financial statement table called "Quarterly Results" and click on "View Consolidated". Now, all data you see for this company wi
Step 4 - Scroll back to the top of the page, and you will see a button "Export to Excel" on the right side. Click the button and the
the exact format as "Safal Niveshak's Stock Analysis Excel Ver. 3.0". Now onwards, any excel you export for any company on S
Step 5 - Email me your love and testimonial for helping you with this excel. :-)

IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS
1. Ensure that the company whose data you are downloading has numbers at least starting from FY08 (March 2008). This is be
from, say, FY10, you will see incorrect data for FY08 and FY09 (which will be of Hero Motocorp on whose financials I have crea
2. All financial data of your chosen company will be automatically updated in the sheet you download, except "Cash and Bank"
figures, which you must update manually from the company's annual reports. Don’t forget to make these changes as these num
3. You may update the sheet and add your own analysis, formulae etc. and then upload again to Screener.in site using the Step
"Data Sheet" because this will cause errors in your future downloads.
4. DON’T touch any cell except the black ones, where you are required to update the numbers manually from Annual Reports (j
the growth assumptions etc.
4. I have added Comments and Instructions wherever necessary so as to explain the concepts. Read those carefully before wo
5. This sheet is not a replacement of the work required to read annual reports as part of the analysis process. So please do tha
some discrepancy in numbers (though rare), but you will know this only when you read annual reports.
6. I could not find a bug/errors in this spreadsheet, but if you notice some, please email me at - vishal@safalniveshak.com - and
7. I will keep on updating the sheet from time to time and will update the same on the website. I invite you to share your feedba
together.
8. This excel won't work for banking and financial services companies.

Note: All data is sourced from Screener.in

 Safal Niveshak Stock
Analysis Excel (Ver. 4.0)
www.safalniveshak.com
Basic Company Details
Parameters
Company
Current Stock Price (Rs)
Face Value (Rs)
No. of Shares (Crore)
Market Capitalization (Rs Crore)
Key Financials - Trend
Parameters
Sales Growth (9-Year CAGR)
Profit Before Tax Growth (9-Year CAGR)
Net Profit Growth (8-Year CAGR)
Average Debt/Equity (5-Years, x)
Average Return on Equity (5-Years)
Average P/E (5-Years, x)
Latest P/E (x)
Warning! Excel can be a wonde
the past. But it can be a we
destruction to predict the future
of what you are getting into. He
always equal garba
Details
TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD
493 Remember! Focus on decision
1.0 Look for disconfirming evidenc
47.5
23,434
Please! It's your money. Please
Details
results of this excel cause you
17.0% designed this excel to aid your
45.0% you alone are responsible for yo
40.5% live peacefully ever after! I am
0.5 wants you to do the hard wo
22.2% companies on your own. But I'd
compass instead of a map, for
33.8
map with territory and lose it
33.4
 Excel can be a wonderful tool to analyze
past. But it can be a weapon of mass
on to predict the future! So be very careful
you are getting into. Here, garbage in will
always equal garbage out.

ber! Focus on decisions, not outcomes.

disconfirming evidence. Calculate. Pray!

t's your money. Please don't blame me if

of this excel cause you to lose it all! I've
d this excel to aid your own thinking, but
are responsible for your actions. I want to
acefully ever after! I am not a sadist who
you to do the hard work by analyzing
es on your own. But I'd rather give you a
ss instead of a map, for you can confuse
ith territory and lose it all. All the best!
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Parameter

Consumer monopoly or commodity?

Understand how business works

Is the company conservatively financed?

Are earnings strong and do they show an

upward trend?

Does the company stick with what it

knows?

Has the company been buying back its

shares?

Have retained earnings been invested

well?

Is the company’s return on equity above

average?

Is the company free to adjust prices to

inflation?
Does the company need to constantly
reinvest in capital?

Conclusion

Never Forget
 Buffett Checklist - Read, Remember, Follow!
Source - Buffettology by Mary Buffett & David Clark
Explanation
Seek out companies that have no or less competition, either due to a patent or brand name or similar intangible that
makes the product unique. Such companies will typically have high gross and operating profit margins because of their
unique niche. However, don't just go on margins as high margins may simply highlight companies within industries with
traditionally high margins. Thus, look for companies with gross, operating and net profit margins above industry norms.
Also look for strong growth in earnings and high return on equity in the past.

Try to invest in industries where you possess some specialized knowledge (where you work) or can more effectively
judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment (simple products you consume). While it is difficult to
construct a quantitative filter, you should be able to identify areas of interest. You should "only" consider analyzing
those companies that operate in areas that you can clearly grasp - your circle of competence. Of course you can
increase the size of the circle, but only over time by learning about new industries. More important than the size of the
circle is to know its boundaries.

Seeks out companies with conservative financing, which equates to a simple, safe balance sheet. Such companies
tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt. Look for low debt to equity or low debt-burden ratios.
Also seek companies that have history of consistently generating positive free cash flows.

Rising earnings serve as a good catalyst for stock prices. So seek companies with strong, consistent, and expanding
earnings (profits). Seek companies with 5/10 year earnings per share growth greater than 25% (along with safe
balance sheets). To help indicate that earnings growth is still strong, look for companies where the last 3-years
earnings growth rate is higher than the last 10-years growth rate. More important than the rate of growth is the
consistency in such growth. So exclude companies with volatile earnings growth in the past, even if the "average"
growth has been high.

Like you should stock to your circle of competence, a company should invest its capital only in those businesses within
its circle of competence. This is a difficult factor to screen for on a quantitative level. Before investing in a company,
look at the company’s past pattern of acquisitions and new directions. They should fit within the primary range of
operations for the firm. Be cautious of companies that have been very aggressive in acquisitions in the past.

Buffett prefers that firms reinvest their earnings within the company, provided that profitable opportunities exist. When
companies have excess cash flow, Buffett favours shareholder-enhancing maneuvers such as share buybacks. While
we do not screen for this factor, a follow-up examination of a company would reveal if it has a share buyback plan in
place.

Seek companies where earnings have risen as retained earnings (earnings after paying dividends) have been
employed profitably. A great way to screen for such companies is by looking at those that have had consistent
earnings and strong return on equity in the past.

Consider it a positive sign when a company is able to earn above-average (better than competitors) returns on equity
without employing much debt. Average return on equity for Indian companies over the last 10 years is approximately
16%. Thus, seek companies that earn at least this much (16%) or more than this. Again, consistency is the key here.

That's what is called "pricing power". Companies with moat (as seen from other screening metrics as suggested above
(like high ROE, high grow margins, low debt etc.) are able to adjust prices to inflation without the risk of losing
significant volume sales.
Companies that consistently need capital to grow their sales and profits are like bank savings account, and thus bad
for an investor's long term portfolio. Seek companies that don't need high capital investments consistently. Retained
earnings must first go toward maintaining current operations at competitive levels, so the lower the amount needed to
maintain current operations, the better. Here, more than just an absolute assessment, a comparison against
competitors will help a lot. Seek companies that consistently generate positive and rising free cash flows.

Sensible investing is always about using “folly and discipline” - the discipline to identify excellent businesses, and wait
for the folly of the market to drive down the value of these businesses to attractive levels. You will have little trouble
understanding this philosophy. However, its successful implementation is dependent upon your dedication to learn and
follow the principles, and apply them to pick stocks successfully.

Focus on decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.

 Balance Sheet
TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 24 24 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48
Reserves 786 842 952 1,122 1,177 1,368 1,598 1,911 2,361 2,833
Borrowings 906 1,003 768 831 634 528 970 924 1,107 1,189
Other Liabilities 845 906 1,090 1,179 1,343 1,668 2,024 2,148 2,532 3,261
Total 2,561 2,774 2,858 3,179 3,202 3,611 4,640 5,031 6,048 7,331

Net Block 996 956 938 1,026 1,011 1,126 1,330 1,720 1,984 2,372
Capital Work in Progress 40 27 57 53 36 48 89 31 62 131
Investments 478 739 661 931 869 896 1,012 1,215 1,588 2,035
Other Assets 1,047 1,052 1,201 1,170 1,286 1,541 2,209 2,066 2,414 2,793
Total 2,561 2,774 2,858 3,179 3,202 3,611 4,640 5,031 6,048 7,331

Working Capital 202 147 111 -8 -57 -127 184 -83 -119 -469
Debtors 182 221 271 208 317 334 504 578 724 968
Inventory 321 290 528 585 510 548 820 696 967 964
Cash & Bank** 42 101 6 13 17 83 5 33 9 11
** Manually enter this number; Convert to Rs Crore if not already done in the Annual Reports; Use Cash+Bank+Current Investments from Consolidated Balance Sheet in Annual Reports

Debtor Days 18 18 16 11 16 15 18 19 22 23
Inventory Turnover 11 15 12 12 14 15 12 16 13 16
Fixed Asset Turnover 3.7 4.6 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.6 6.5 6.1 6.4
Debt/Equity 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4
Return on Equity 4% 10% 19% 21% 9% 18% 21% 25% 23% 23%
Return on Capital Employed 6% 8% 18% 19% 11% 19% 18% 24% 21% 23%
 Profit & Loss Account / Income Statement
TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Trailing
Sales 3,671 4,363 6,288 7,142 7,169 7,966 10,042 11,105 12,135 15,130 17,819
% Growth YOY 19% 44% 14% 0% 11% 26% 11% 9% 25%
Expenses 3,552 4,198 5,890 6,672 6,761 7,516 9,436 10,295 11,276 14,000 16,413
Material Cost (% of Sales) 74% 72% 76% 74% 72% 71% 74% 71% 73% 74% Check for wide fluctuations in key
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% expense items. For manufacturing
Other Mfr. Exp 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% firms, check their material costs etc. For
Employee Cost 6% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% services firms, look at employee costs.
Selling and Admin Cost 10% 12% 9% 8% 10% 11% 9% 9% 9% 9%
Operating Profit 119 165 398 469 408 450 607 810 859 1,129 1,406
Operating Profit Margin 3% 4% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7% 8%
Other Income 80 89 30 22 -66 60 30 104 171 145 28
Other Income as % of Sales 2.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.3% -0.9% 0.8% 0.3% 0.9% 1.4% 1.0% 0.2%
Depreciation 103 103 107 118 130 132 153 236 288 339 391
Interest 65 75 72 57 48 25 27 49 44 57 74
Interest Coverage(Times) 1 2 4 7 4 15 18 14 17 17 14
Profit before tax (PBT) 31 76 248 316 164 353 456 629 699 879 969
% Growth YOY 145% 226% 28% -48% 116% 29% 38% 11% 26%
PBT Margin 1% 2% 4% 4% 2% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6% 5%
Tax 0 -12 54 67 48 91 108 140 141 216 267
Net profit 31 88 195 249 116 262 348 489 558 663 702
% Growth YOY 183% 121% 28% -53% 126% 33% 41% 14% 19%
Net Profit Margin 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 5% 4% 4%
EPS 0.7 1.9 4.1 5.2 2.4 5.5 7.3 10.3 11.7 13.9 14.8
% Growth YOY 187% 118% 28% -53% 126% 33% 41% 14% 19%
Price to earning 20.4 23.2 14.6 7.8 14.7 16.7 33.4 31.4 40.3 47.2 33.4
Price 13 44 60 41 36 92 244 323 473 658 493
Dividend Payout 53.5% 32.4% 26.9% 24.8% 49.1% 25.4% 26.0% 24.3% 21.3% 23.7%
Market Cap 633 2,039 2,834 1,933 1,707 4,367 11,602 15,344 22,484 31,245
Retained Earnings 14 60 142 187 59 195 258 371 439 506
Buffett's $1 Test 13.7

TRENDS: 10 YEARS 7 YEARS 5 YEARS 3 YEARS

Sales Growth 17.0% 13.4% 16.1% 14.6%
PBT Growth 45.0% 19.8% 40.0% 24.4%
PBT Margin 3.9% 4.7% 5.2% 5.7%
Price to Earning 24.9 27.3 33.8 39.6

Check for long term vs short term trends here. Check if the growth over
past 3 or 5 years has slowed down / improved compared to long term (7
to 10 years) growth numbers.
 Key Ratios
TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17
Sales Growth 18.9% 44.1% 13.6% 0.4% 11.1% 26.1% 10.6% 9.3%
PBT Growth 144.9% 225.7% 27.6% -48.3% 115.5% 29.4% 37.9% 11.1%
Net Profit Growth 183.2% 121.1% 28.0% -53.4% 125.5% 32.9% 40.7% 14.1%
Dividend Growth 71.4% 83.4% 18.2% -7.7% 16.7% 35.7% 31.6% 0.0%
Operating Cash Flow Growth 112.2% -30.9% 88.3% -1.8% 21.0% -83.8% 1009.3% -23.1%
Free Cash Flow Growth 116.4% -52.1% 95.4% 32.2% -10.7% -202.5% -255.1% -55.5%

Operating Margin 3.2% 3.8% 6.3% 6.6% 5.7% 5.6% 6.0% 7.3% 7.1%
PBT Margin 0.8% 1.7% 3.9% 4.4% 2.3% 4.4% 4.5% 5.7% 5.8%
Net Margin 0.8% 2.0% 3.1% 3.5% 1.6% 3.3% 3.5% 4.4% 4.6%

Debtor Days 18.1 18.5 15.7 10.6 16.1 15.3 18.3 19.0 21.8
Inventory Turnover 11.5 15.1 11.9 12.2 14.1 14.5 12.3 15.9 12.6
Fixed Asset Turnover 3.7 4.6 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.6 6.5 6.1
Debt/Equity 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.5
Debt/Assets 35.4% 36.2% 26.9% 26.1% 19.8% 14.6% 20.9% 18.4% 18.3%
Interest Coverage (Times) 1.5 2.0 4.4 6.5 4.4 14.9 17.6 13.9 16.9
Return on Equity 3.8% 10.2% 19.5% 21.3% 9.5% 18.5% 21.1% 25.0% 23.2%
Return on Capital Employed 5.6% 8.1% 18.1% 18.7% 11.4% 19.5% 18.5% 23.5% 21.1%
Free Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 115 249 119 233 308 275 -282 438 195
Mar/18
24.7%
25.8%
18.7%
32.0%
72.9%
174.1%

7.5%
5.8%
4.4%

23.4
15.7
6.4
0.4
16.2%
16.5
23.0%
23.0%
533
 Profit Margin Capital Allocation
8% 30%

6% 25%
20%
4%
15%
2% 10%
0% 5%
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 0%
Operating Margin PBT Margin Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13
Net Margin ROE RO

Revenue Over Time Revenue and Profi

16,000 250%
14,000 200%
12,000 150%
10,000 100%
8,000 50%
0%
6,000
-50% Jan/10 Jan/12 Jan/1
4,000
-100%
2,000
Revenue Growth
-
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17 Net Profit Growth

Profit Over Time

1,000

800

600

400

200

-
Jan/09 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17
PBT Net Profit
Data for Charts
Margins
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Operating Margin 3% 4% 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 7% 7%
PBT Margin 1% 2% 4% 4% 2% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6%
Net Margin 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 5% 4%

Management Effectiveness
Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
ROE 4% 10% 19% 21% 9% 18% 21% 25% 23% 23%
ROCE 6% 8% 18% 19% 11% 19% 18% 24% 21% 23%

Revenue & Profit Growth

Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue Growth 19% 44% 14% 0% 11% 26% 11% 9% 25%
PBT Growth 145% 226% 28% -48% 116% 29% 38% 11% 26%
Net Profit Growth 183% 121% 28% -53% 126% 33% 41% 14% 19%

Revenue & Profit

Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18
Revenue 3,671 4,363 6,288 7,142 7,169 7,966 10,042 11,105 12,135 15,130
PBT 31 76 248 316 164 353 456 629 699 879
Net Profit 31 88 195 249 116 262 348 489 558 663
 Capital Allocation Quality

9 Jan/11 Jan/13 Jan/15 Jan/17

ROE ROCE

Revenue and Profit Growth

10 Jan/12 Jan/14 Jan/16 Jan/18

Revenue Growth PBT Growth

Net Profit Growth
COMPANY NAME TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD
LATEST VERSION 2.10 PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHA
CURRENT VERSION 2.10

META
Number of shares 47.51
Face Value 1
Current Price 493.25
Market Capitalization 23434.31

PROFIT & LOSS

Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Sales 3670.85 4363.11 6288.02 7141.52 7169.25 7965.94
Raw Material Cost 2722.83 3135.4 4757.79 5276.19 5167.5 5663.17
Change in Inventory -60.56 -1.95 143.88 15.14 -32.7 -9.65
Power and Fuel 46.25 50.23 68.1 89.77 90.45 79.81
Other Mfr. Exp 64.79 82.44 103.12 112.42 94.3 93.69
Employee Cost 204.52 248.45 326.72 370.11 407.13 476.11
Selling and admin 375.14 541.1 579.76 594.35 718.29 860.91
Other Expenses 78.03 138.68 198.72 244.45 251.08 332.89
Other Income 79.86 89.2 29.98 21.71 -65.77 59.88
Depreciation 102.88 102.53 107.25 117.53 130.41 131.65
Interest 64.61 75.36 72.33 57.09 48.04 25.4
Profit before tax 31.1 76.17 248.09 316.46 163.58 352.54
Tax 0.02 -11.84 53.51 67.39 47.56 90.91
Net profit 31.08 88.01 194.58 249.07 116.02 261.63
Dividend Amount 16.63 28.5 52.26 61.76 57.01 66.51

Quarters
Report Date Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17
Sales 3426.49 2983.38 2844.5 3399.51 4064.72 3698.67
Expenses 3149.8 2764.89 2682.99 3188.09 3702.11 3398.16
Other Income 39.2 34.8 63.2 57.08 33.27 4.44
Depreciation 72.44 71.97 77.45 78.34 83.61 82.42
Interest 9.41 11.52 13.24 10.72 15.48 12.17
Profit before tax 234.04 169.8 134.02 179.44 296.79 210.36
Tax 56.65 37.13 7.25 49.97 83.63 56.01
Net profit 177.39 132.67 126.77 129.47 213.16 154.35
Operating Profit 276.69 218.49 161.51 211.42 362.61 300.51

BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Equity Share Capital 23.75 23.75 47.51 47.51 47.51 47.51
Reserves 786.41 841.55 951.9 1122.06 1177.16 1367.77
Borrowings 905.98 1003.29 767.82 831.09 634.49 527.61
Other Liabilities 844.54 905.57 1090.28 1178.72 1342.88 1668.12
Total 2560.68 2774.16 2857.51 3179.38 3202.04 3611.01
Net Block 995.94 955.73 937.59 1025.57 1011.48 1125.71
Capital Work in Progress 40.43 27.05 57.39 52.51 36.09 48.08
Investments 477.71 739.26 661.13 930.92 868.84 895.92
Other Assets 1046.6 1052.12 1201.4 1170.38 1285.63 1541.3
Total 2560.68 2774.16 2857.51 3179.38 3202.04 3611.01
Receivables 181.56 220.79 270.62 208.04 316.85 334.12
Inventory 320.55 289.73 527.92 584.56 509.66 548.15
Cash & Bank 42.05 101.01 6.01 13.03 17.45 82.57
No. of Equity Shares 237543557 231000700 475087114 475087114 475087114 475087100
New Bonus Shares 237543557
Face value 1 1 1 1 1 1

CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Cash from Operating Activity 159.74 338.91 234.11 440.85 432.87 523.79
Cash from Investing Activity -202.48 -285.25 -2.06 -380.85 -107.31 -259.84
Cash from Financing Activity 20.62 88 -406.14 -194.57 -321.64 -198.38
Net Cash Flow -22.12 141.66 -174.09 -134.57 3.92 65.57

PRICE: 13.328889 43.512381 59.652632 40.6975 35.93 91.915789

DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 47.51 46.85 47.51 47.51 47.51 47.51
DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

10042.33 11104.66 12135.31 15129.66
7389.2 7908.64 8912.1 11164.33
92.07 -70.53 58.73 31.34
91.29 88.29 90.62 107.17
114 111.65 121.4 136.51
592.42 652.39 745.64 868.01
929.62 1049.57 1053.58 1308.75
411.25 413.72 411.34 447.02
30.29 103.85 171.08 144.78
153.33 236.05 287.81 338.73
27.42 48.73 43.95 56.62
456.16 628.94 698.68 878.64
108.33 139.66 140.6 216.05
347.83 489.28 558.08 662.59
90.27 118.78 118.78 156.78

Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18

3992.76 4168.45 4993.47 4663.98
3712.09 3847.24 4565.29 4288.25
23.99 2.57 0.74 0.65
94.36 93.34 101.6 101.24
18.25 18.02 21.16 16.69
192.05 212.42 306.16 258.45
26.44 65.81 94.85 80.06
165.61 146.61 211.31 178.39
280.67 321.21 428.18 375.73

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

47.51 47.51 47.51 47.51
 1597.85 1910.83 2360.82 2832.91
970.47 924.39 1107.2 1189.19
2024.39 2148.39 2532.4 3261.36
4640.22 5031.12 6047.93 7330.97
1329.63 1719.59 1983.87 2371.87
89.36 30.96 62.28 131.13
1012.46 1214.86 1587.9 2035.38
2208.77 2065.71 2413.88 2792.59
4640.22 5031.12 6047.93 7330.97
503.86 578.03 723.77 968.37
819.68 696.33 966.95 964.39
5.39 32.74 8.51 10.9
475087114 475087114 475087114 475087114

1 1 1 1

Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18

84.84 941.09 723.93 1251.57
-493.27 -608.16 -748.12 -1085.61
330.82 -306.05 -72.7 -74.74
-77.61 26.88 -96.89 91.22

244.1975 322.963158 473.260526 657.678571

47.51 47.51 47.51 47.51

 Common Size P&L
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Sales 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Raw Material Cost 74% 72% 76% 74% 72% 71% 74% 71% 73% 74%
Change in Inventory -2% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 1% -1% 0% 0%
Power and Fuel 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Other Mfr. Exp 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Employee Cost 6% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
Selling and Admin Cost 10% 12% 9% 8% 10% 11% 9% 9% 9% 9%
Other Expenses 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4% 3% 3%
Operating Profit 7% 4% 2% 6% 7% 6% 4% 9% 6% 7%
Other Income 2% 2% 0% 0% -1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 1%
Depreciation 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%
Interest 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Profit Before Tax 1% 2% 4% 4% 2% 4% 5% 6% 6% 6%
Tax 0% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Net Profit 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 5% 4%
Dividend Amount 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Common Size Balance Sheet

Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Reserves 31% 30% 33% 35% 37% 38% 34% 38% 39% 39%
Borrowings 35% 36% 27% 26% 20% 15% 21% 18% 18% 16%
Other Liabilities 33% 33% 38% 37% 42% 46% 44% 43% 42% 44%
Total Liabilities 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Net Block 39% 34% 33% 32% 32% 31% 29% 34% 33% 32%
Capital Work in Progress 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2%
Investments 19% 27% 23% 29% 27% 25% 22% 24% 26% 28%
Other Assets 41% 38% 42% 37% 40% 43% 48% 41% 40% 38%
Total Assets 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Receivables 7% 8% 9% 7% 10% 9% 11% 11% 12% 13%
Inventory 13% 10% 18% 18% 16% 15% 18% 14% 16% 13%
Cash & Bank 2% 4% 0% 0% 1% 2% 0% 1% 0% 0%
 A common-size financial statement is displays line
items as a percentage of one selected or common
figure. Creating common-size financial statements
makes it easier to analyze a company over time and
compare it with its peers. Using common-size
financial statements helps investors spot trends that
a raw financial statement may not uncover.
 Cash Flow Statement
TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD
Rs Cr Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Total
Cash from Operating Activity (CFO) 160 339 234 441 433 524 85 941 724 1,252 5,132
% Growth YoY 112% -31% 88% -2% 21% -84% 1009% -23% 73%
Cash from Investing Activity -202 -285 -2 -381 -107 -260 -493 -608 -748 -1,086 -4,173
Cash from Financing Activity 21 88 -406 -195 -322 -198 331 -306 -73 -75 -1,135
Net Cash Flow -22 142 -174 -135 4 66 -78 27 -97 91 -176
CFO/Sales 4% 8% 4% 6% 6% 7% 1% 8% 6% 8%
CFO/Net Profit 514% 385% 120% 177% 373% 200% 24% 192% 130% 189%
Capex** 45 90 115 208 124 249 367 504 529 718
FCF 115 249 119 233 308 275 -282 438 195 533 2,184
Average FCF (3 Years) 388
FCF Growth YoY 116% -52% 95% 32% -11% -202% -255% -56% 174%
FCF/Sales 3% 6% 2% 3% 4% 3% -3% 4% 2% 4%
FCF/Net Profit 370% 283% 61% 94% 266% 105% -81% 89% 35% 80%

** Manually enter this number;

Convert to Rs Crore if not already
done in the Annual Reports; Use
"Capital expenditure" number
shown under "Cash Flow from
Investing Activities" segment of
Consolidated Cash Flow Statement
available in the Annual Reports
 Dhandho Intrinsic Value Calculation
Read the book - The Dhandho Investor by Mohnish Pabrai

TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD

Dhandho IV - Lower Range Dhandho IV - Higher Range
Year FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth Year
0 Excess Cash (Latest) 11 Year 1-3 15% 0 Excess Cash (Latest)
1 FY18 447 399 Year 4-6 10% 1 FY18
2 FY19 514 410 Year 7-10 5% 2 FY19
3 FY20 591 421 Discount Rate 12% 3 FY20
4 FY21 650 413 4 FY21
5 FY22 715 406 Last 5-Years' CAGR 5 FY22
6 FY23 786 398 Sales 16% 6 FY23
7 FY24 826 374 PBT 40% 7 FY24
8 FY25 867 350 FCF 12% 8 FY25
9 FY26 910 328 9 FY26
10 FY27 956 308 10 FY27
10 9,558 3,078 10
Intrinsic Value 6,894 Intrinsic Value
Current Mkt. Cap. 23,434 Current Mkt. Cap.
Premium/(Discount) to IV 240% Premium/(Discount) to IV

Note: See explanation of this model here

P.S. In case of companies earning negative FCF, where this model will not work, you must use a normalized positive FCF as
starting number. This number is your assumption of FCF the business will earn in a normal year, without capex. Check the his
this business while arriving at your assumption, and use your judgment wisely without twisting the model to fit your version of
Calculation
by Mohnish Pabrai

TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD

Dhandho IV - Higher Range
FCF (Rs Cr) PV of FCF (Rs Cr) Assumed FCF Growth
Excess Cash (Latest) 11 Year 1-3 20%
466 416 Year 4-6 15%
559 446 Year 7-10 10%
671 478 Discount Rate 12%
772 491
888 504
1,021 517
1,123 508
1,235 499
1,359 490
1,495 481
22,421 7,219
Intrinsic Value 12,060
Current Mkt. Cap. 23,434
Premium/(Discount) to IV 94%

ust use a normalized positive FCF as the

al year, without capex. Check the history of
sting the model to fit your version of reality.
 Ben Graham Formula (Low Range) Ben Graham Formula (High Range)
Company Name S MOTOR COMPANY LTD Company Name
Year Ended Mar/18 Year Ended

Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore) 463.9 Avg 5-Yr Net Profit (Rs Crore)
PE Ratio at 0% Growth 8.5 PE Ratio at 0% Growth
Long-Term Growth Rate 20.8 Long-Term Growth Rate

Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore) 23,283 Ben Graham Value (Rs Crore)
Current Market Cap (Rs Crore) 23,434 Current Market Cap (Rs Crore)

EXPLANATION
Ben Graham's Original Formula: Value = EPS x (8.5 + 2G)
Here, EPS is the trailing 12 month EPS, 8.5 is the P/E ratio of a stock with 0% growth and g is the growth rate for the next 7-10

Ben Graham's Revised Formula: Value = [EPS x (8.5 + 2G) x 4.4] / Y

Here, 4.4 is what Graham determined to be his minimum required rate of return. At the time of around 1962 when Graham was

Note: I have used Graham's original formula in the above calculations

m Formula (High Range)
S MOTOR COMPANY LTD
Mar/18

463.9
8.5
41.7

42,622
23,434

g is the growth rate for the next 7-10 years

e of around 1962 when Graham was publicizing his works, the risk free interest rate was 4.4% but to adjust to the present, we divide this nu
e present, we divide this number by today’s AAA corporate bond rate, represented by Y in the formula above.
 Dicounted Cash Flow Valuation
TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD

Initial Cash Flow (Rs Cr) 388 8,843

23,434
Years 1-5 6-10 38%
FCF Growth Rate 15% 12%
Discount Rate 12%
Terminal Growth Rate 2%

Net Debt Level (Rs Cr) 1,178

Year FCF Growth Present Value

1 447 15% 399
2 514 15% 410
3 591 15% 421
4 679 15% 432
5 781 15% 443
6 875 12% 443
7 980 12% 443
8 1,098 12% 443
9 1,229 12% 443
10 1,377 12% 443

Final Calculations
Terminal Year 1,405
PV of Year 1-10 Cash Flows 4,321
Terminal Value 4,522
Total PV of Cash Flows 8,843
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 23,434

Note: See explanation of DCF here

 Valuation
Y LTD

DCF Value (As calculated in cell B29)

Current Market Cap
DCF as % of Current Mkt Cap
 Expected Returns Model
TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD
Particulars Mar/09 Mar/10 Mar/11 Mar/12 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/15
Net Profit (Rs Crore) 31 88 195 249 116 262 348
Net Profit Margin 1% 2% 3% 3% 2% 3% 3%
Return on Equity 4% 10% 19% 21% 9% 18% 21%

Calculations (Enter values only in black cells)

Estimated CAGR in Net Profit over next 10 years 15%
Estimated Net Profit after 10 years (Rs Cr) 2,681
Current P/E (x) 35.4
Exit P/E in the 10th year from now (x, Estimated) 20.0
Esti. Market Cap (10th year from now; Rs Cr) 53,611
Cost of Capital/Discount Rate 12%
Discounted Value (Rs Cr) 17,261
Current Market Cap (Rs Cr) 23,434

Note: See explanation of this model here

el
Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 CAGR (9-Yr) CAGR (5-Yr)
489 558 663 40% 42%
4% 5% 4%
25% 23% 23%
 Intrinsic Value Range
TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD
Lower Higher Remember! Give importance to a stock's valuations / fair va
Dhandho 6,894 12,060 only "after" you have answered in "Yes" to these two questio
Ben Graham 23,283 42,622 (1) Is this business simple to be understood? and (2) Can
DCF 8,843 understand this business?
Expected Return 17,261 Don't try to quantify everything. In stock research, the less n
Current Market Cap. 23,434 mathematical you are, the more simple, sensible, and useful
be your analysis and results. Great analysis is generally "ba
of-the-envelope".

Also, your calculated "fair value" will be proven wrong in t

future, so don't invest your savings just because you fall in
with it. Don't look for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
decisions, not outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidenc
 importance to a stock's valuations / fair value
ave answered in "Yes" to these two questions -
ness simple to be understood? and (2) Can I
understand this business?

fy everything. In stock research, the less non-

are, the more simple, sensible, and useful will
and results. Great analysis is generally "back-
of-the-envelope".

lated "fair value" will be proven wrong in the

vest your savings just because you fall in love
ook for perfection. It is overrated. Focus on
outcomes. Look for disconfirming evidence.
TVS MOTOR COMPANY LTD
SCREENER.IN
Narration Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18
Sales 3,426 2,983 2,845 3,400 4,065 3,699 3,993 4,168 4,993 4,664
% Growth YOY 19% 24% 40% 23% 23% 26%
Expenses 3,150 2,765 2,683 3,188 3,702 3,398 3,712 3,847 4,565 4,288
Operating Profit 277 218 162 211 363 301 281 321 428 376
Other Income 39 35 63 57 33 4 24 3 1 1
Depreciation 72 72 77 78 84 82 94 93 102 101
Interest 9 12 13 11 15 12 18 18 21 17
Profit before tax 234 170 134 179 297 210 192 212 306 258
PBT Margin 7% 6% 5% 5% 7% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6%
% Growth YOY 27% 24% 43% 18% 3% 23%
Tax 57 37 7 50 84 56 26 66 95 80
Net profit 177 133 127 129 213 154 166 147 211 178
% Growth YOY 20% 16% 31% 13% -1% 16%
OPM 8% 7% 6% 6% 9% 8% 7% 8% 9% 8%
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