Name: _____________________________

Bayes’ Theorem
𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)𝑃(𝐴)
1) Bayes’ Theorem states that 𝑃(𝐴|𝐵) = , where 𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴′)𝑃(𝐴′). Using
𝑃(𝐵)
what you know about conditional probability demonstrate how you can derive Bayes’ Theorem from
the definitions and equations we already know.

2) Why is there the qualifier “where 𝑃(𝐵) = 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴)𝑃(𝐴) + 𝑃(𝐵|𝐴′)𝑃(𝐴′)” on Bayes’ Theorem?

3) A can contains 4 blue and 2 green marbles. One marble is randomly drawn from the can without
replacement and its color is recorded. A second marble is drawn, find the probability that:
a. The second marble is blue

b. The first marble was green given that the second is blue

4) Suppose there are two full bowls of cookies. Bowl #1 has 10 chocolate chip and 30 plain cookies,
while bowl #2 has 20 of each. Our friend Fred picks a bowl at random, and then picks a cookie at
random. We may assume there is no reason to believe Fred treats one bowl differently from another,
likewise for the cookies. The cookie turns out to be a plain one. How probable is it that Fred picked it
out of Bowl #1? (Solve using Bayes’ Theorem)

5) A biometric security device using fingerprints erroneously refuses to admit 1 in 1,000 authorized
persons from a facility containing classified information. The device will erroneously admit 1 in
1,000,000 unauthorized persons. Assume that 95 percent of those who seek access are authorized. If
the alarm goes off and a person is refused admission, what is the probability that the person was
really authorized?
6) Two people have left traces of their own blood at the scene of a crime. A suspect, Oliver, is tested and
found to have type O blood. The blood groups of the two traces are found to be of type O (a common
type in the local population, having frequency 60%) and of type AB (a rare type, with frequency
1%). Do these data (the blood types found at the scene) give evidence in favour [sic] of the
proposition that Oliver was one of the two people whose blood was found at the scene?

7) The blue M&M was introduced in 1995. Before then, the color mix in a bag of plain M&Ms was (30%
Brown, 20% Yellow, 20% Red, 10% Green, 10% Orange, 10% Tan). Afterward it was (24% Blue ,
20% Green, 16% Orange, 14% Yellow, 13% Red, 13% Brown).

A friend of mine is a hoarder and for some reason has two bags of M&Ms, one is from 1994 and one
from 1996. He won't tell me which is which, but he gives me one M&M from each bag. One is yellow
and one is green. What is the probability that the yellow M&M came from the 1994 bag?

8) According to the CDC, ``Compared to nonsmokers, men who smoke are about 23 times more likely to
develop lung cancer and women who smoke are about 13 times more likely.''
If you learn that a woman has been diagnosed with lung cancer, and you know nothing else about her,
what is the probability that she is a smoker?

9) Elvis Presley had a twin brother who died at birth. What is the probability that Elvis was an identical
twin?
What information do you need in order to solve this problem (aside from the answer)? Write down
your questions then ask Mr. Gilmartin your questions, if they are relevant to the situation he will
answer them.
10)A certain town has two taxi companies: Blue Birds, whose cabs are blue, and Night Owls, whose cabs
are black. Blue Birds has 15 taxis in its fleet, and Night Owls has 75. Late one night, there is a hit-and-
run accident involving a taxi. The town's 90 taxis were all on the streets at the time of the accident. A
witness saw the accident and claims that a blue taxi was involved. At the request of the police,
the witness undergoes a vision test under conditions similar to those on the night in question.
Presented repeatedly with a blue taxi and a black taxi, in random order, he shows he can successfully
identify the color of the taxi 4 times out of 5. Which company is more likely to have been involved in
the accident?

11) A couple has two children and the older child is a boy. If the probabilities of have a bot or a girl are
both 50%, what is the probability that the couple has two boys?

12)A couple has two children, on of which is a boy. If the probabilities of having a boy or a girl are both
50%, what is the probability that the couple has two boys?

13)What is the difference between the two preceding questions? Why don’t the lead to the same result?

14)According to the famous Monty Hall problem given the following scenario you should ALWAYS
change doors when given the option:
“Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a
car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind
the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to
pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?”
Demonstrate why, using Bayes Theorem, it is to your benefit to change doors.
15)Now suppose we make things slightly more complex and à la Barney Stinson on How I Met Your
Mother you go all out in preparation for your time on the show. During your extensive preparation
you watched 18 old episodes of the show and you noticed that when the contestant picks the correct
door Monty is more likely to blink. Of the 18 episodes you watched, the contestant chose the correct
door 5 times, and Monty blinked three of those times. Of the other 13 times, Monty blinked 3 times.

You go to the taping of the show and have the fortune of being selected to participate! You choose
Door C and Monty opens door B and blinks… What should you do, and what is your chance of
winning?

16) Congratulations on making it this far! After all the practice you have just had with Bayes’ Theorem
why would you tell a classmate when they ask “Why do we care about this random probability
theorem? What’s the point?”

Challenge:
You’re watching four statisticians play bridge. After a hand is dealt, you choose a player and ask, “Do you
have at least one ace?” If she answers yes, the chance that she’s holding more than one ace is
5359/14498, which is less than 37 percent.
On a later hand, you choose a player and ask, “Do you have the ace of spades?” Strangely, if she says yes
now the chance that she has more than one ace is 11686/20825, which is more than 56 percent.
Why does specifying the suit of her ace improve the odds that she’s holding more than one ace?