INDIA-PAKISTAN RELATIONS

GAME THEORY IN APPLICATION

India-Pakistan relations have been tensed since Independence. Three wars have been fought between these two
nuclear powers. The world looks at the moves taken by these two countries. A little intense strategy and it can
lead to major implications on world. But, the decisions of these countries are inspired by Game Theory. Th
decision makers have various strategies and according to the moves by the other player, they play their own
strategy to maximise the benefits.

We have constructed a payoff matrix for the countries below. The payoff values are inspired from an article
referred below.

INDIA
Negotiate Not-negotiate
Negotiate 2,2 0,3
PAKISTAN
Not-negotiate 3,0 1,1

Let’s understand the situation.

If Pakistan chooses to “negotiate”, India will have two choices
1.Negotiate- If it chooses to negotiate, there will be a peacetime situation and come to a
conclusion which will be best for the countries.
2.Not negotiate- If it chooses not to negotiate, it shows Pakistan at the lower side in front of
world community and can exert world pressure to gain more political advantage. Thus, India gets highes t
benefits from the deal.

If Pakistan chooses to “not-negotiate”, India will have two choices

1.Negotiate- If it chooses to negotiate, Indians will be looked upon at darker side by the world
and other countries will force India give away what Pakistan wants.
2.Not negotiate- If it chooses not to negotiate, India will be away from any conspiracy and try to
continue their own development in the rest of the world. The tense situation will continue but the
intensity will be very meagre.
The payoffs are labelled according to the explanation. The Nash Equilibrium is that both don’t negotiate
as is the real case.

What if there is a war like situation where a hard strategy is to be implemented. Consider the situation like 1970
war, 1998 war etc. The holistic view of strategy can be shown through game theory.

x- no’ of attacks INDIA

Attack Not Attack
Attack -10, -10 1, -2x
PAKISTAN
Not Attack -2x,1 0,0
India Pakistan have their army’s standoff at the border. If wartime situation is near and a country attacks one
country once, the country loses. But still it does not have any incentive to attack another. But with repeated
attacks, the country will pass its threshold area and attack as, by using its maximin strategy, it will find itself
beneficial to attack and remain quiet. This is how a war starts. There is no dominant strategy for both countries
till the threshold value. After that, attack is the dominant strategy. That is the reason war is the latest solution
of any disagreement between countries. Till then the countries attack in bits and try not to cross the threshold.
The URI Attack and the Balakot strikes are such examples.

References:-
https://idsa.in/idsacomments/GametheoreticUnderstandingofIndiaPakistanRelations_agupta_160811%20

Bhavesh – PGP/23/201 Ritvik – PGP/23/225 Saurabh – PGP/23/229