Scenario Report

European Vital Cities

P A R I S

Charlotte Uebis Matthias Herberger Mauro Jurriens

Teun van der Heide Hans-Theo Albrecht

Preface

This report is concerned with Paris, the past of the city from the very beginning, the
current situation the city is facing today, as well as possible scenarios of what the future
could look like for Parisiens. Different aspects like the economy, technology, sport,
health, pollution, culture and more are being assessed and analysed to get to know the
city, explain the DNA of the city and to be able to give advice based on facts and
numbers. The research of the city is than compared to the team’s vision of a vital city
and the sustainable development goals by the World Health Organization. Afterwards,
four possible scenarios are demonstrated, using the key drivers of the city: segregation
and economy. The scenarios are describing the possible future of Paris in four different
ways from today until 2050 and are supposed to advise the city on how to become more
vital, improve aspects like the air- and noise pollution or quality of life in short-, middle-,
and long-term ways.
The research team consists of Charlotte Uebis, Hans-Theo Albrecht, Matthias
Herberger, Mauro Jurriens and Teun van de Heide.

25 October 2018.

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 Page of Content

1. Introduction
1.1 Vision of the city
1.2 Vision of the team

2. ​DNA of the city

2.1 Economy
2.2 Sport
2.3 Health
2.4 Social

3. ​Scenario planning process

3.1 Issues and the drivers causing it
3.2 Four Plausible Scenarios

4. ​Scenarios
4.1 Scenario A
4.2 Scenario B
4.3 Scenario C
4.4 Scenario D

5. ​Afterword

6. ​References

7. ​Appendix
7.1 Evidence
7.2 Peer assessment

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 1. Introduction

A vital city can have different definitions. It can mean the “Urban sports promotion for
social inclusion, healthy and active living”, as defined in the URBACT III ​programme
URBACT (n.d.)​, funded by the European Union. It can also be more about improving the
quality of life, the economy and/or the functionality of a city.
To the research team, a vital city is aware of ongoing issues and changes to the city
and its inhabitants. The city council makes use of sport, research, planning, policies,
technology and all its other resources to keep the quality of life, happiness and equality
of the population as high as possible.

1.1 Vision of the city

Paris has had three core values since its founding as a fortified Celtic settlement in the
third century before Christ: “Liberty, Equality, Fraternity.” After the revolution that lasted
from 1789 to 1799, the words laïcité et la démocratie were added, which stands for
democracy. Today, it is Paris’ motto, separated in three pieces that stand for the
freedom of every man and woman as long as it does not harm another’s, the impartiality
of every man and woman in front of the court, and the equality of man and woman
regardless of race, ethnicity, and beliefs. ​Kwasniewski, V. (2011, April 27)​ One of Paris’
long-term goals and vision is to become carbon-neutral by 2050. Environmentally
responsible and affordable living space has been created from a former industrial
wasteland, which could become a model for other parts of the city, other regions or
even other countries.
Other health oriented-goals include the abolition of the ‘numerus clausus’, making it
easier to study complex fields such as medicine, politics, and science, interconnecting
all sectors of medicine, improving the situation of the healthcare systems, hospitals and

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availability of doctors in more impoverished areas, as well as the implementation of
doctor assistants. ​Loumé, L. (2018, September 17)

1.2 Vision of the team

As already mentioned in the introduction, the teams’ vision for Paris is for the city to use
all its resources and skills in order to keep the safety, standard of living, equality and
functionality to the highest standard possible. The team would like to combine the
current goals of the city with the sustainable development goals of the World Health
Organization as well as their very own ideas for the best possible future of Paris.
The team believes that Paris needs to come together as a city more and inequality
within the inhabitants is still a big problem. Also, the air as well as noise pollution needs
to be stopped, the city made safer and cleaner and more public and/or green spaces
created.

2. ​DNA of the city

The city of Paris, which is the capital of France, is the third biggest city all over Europe
with just over 2.2 million inhabitants and over 12 million in its metropolitan area. It is the
most densely-populated city within the European Union. It is famous for revolution, art,
romance, its cafe-culture and fashion designer boutiques, Disney world and famous
historical landmarks such as the Eiffel Tower, Notre-Dame Cathedral, Louvre museum
or the Arc de Triomphe.
Paris history begins in the third century before Christ, as mentioned in the vision of the
city, as a Celtic tribe settlement on the Ile de la Cite. 350 years later, in the year 52 AD,
the Romans conquered the settlement with its inhabitants, the Parisii, and called them,
by the 10000 strong men town, Lutetia. Another 250 years later, in the third century, the

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Roman empire was coming to an end, and the Franks took over the city. Over the next
500 years, through the middle-ages, Paris was attacked by Vikings, who could be paid
in silver to leave the growing city alone. The population now measured 200000 people,
which was an enormous-sized city back then.
King Philippe-Auguste, who ruled from 1180 to 1223, build the Louvre fortress, as well
as a protecting wall around Paris. The port, located along the river Seine, was already
an essential part of the city and economy, in order to export and import, sell, buy and
trade with all sorts of goods. Paris University and other educational institutions became
bigger and known in the 12th century, at the same time as Notre Dame Cathedral was
built.
In 1338, the so-called ‘hundred years war’ between England and France broke out and
only ten years later, the plague ‘black death,’ which meant bad times for Paris. The
English were able to capture the city in 1420, but could only hold it for 16 years, before
being recaptured by the French. After the war came to an end and the city started
recovering from the devastating events that left many dead and flourished again, the
Reformation swept the country in the 16th century, and Catholics started persecuting
Protestants, killing 2000 of them on St Bartholomew’s day massacre. It all came to an
end with the converting to Catholicism of King Henry IV in 1593.
Alongside with high buildings, that are known and famous until today, the many cafes,
philosophers and artists started making the city into what it is today, going back as far
as the 17th century. Now, a time of revolution would come. During the actual revolution
in 1789, Parisians seized guns and cannons from the Invalides and surrounded the
Bastille, prison, and fortress. The governor had to surrender.
Starting in September 1793 and lasting for nine long months, thousands were killed
during the ‘Great Terror.’ Churches were vandalized and closed because of the
De-Christianization. After ending the terror in 1794, Napoleon became the ruler of
France in 1799.
During the 19th century, even though Paris proliferated due to the industrial revolution,
20000 people were killed by cholera, and many more lived in deep poverty. In 1848,

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when Napoleon III took over power due to another revolution, caused by the discontent
of the people, he ruled until 1870 and led to a boom of Paris, economically and socially.
The Eiffel-Tower was built and finally unveiled in 1889 and the Metro network followed
shortly after, in 1900.
Avoiding the first world war almost entirely and prospering during the 1920’s and
1930’s, Paris fell to the Germans in 1940 during the 2nd world war. It only took four
years, however, before the Parisians started rebelling and taking back their city, with the
help of allied forces. ​Lambert, T. (n.d.)​ With a long, revolutionary history, the city today
is the most attractive tourist city all over Europe, and ranking 5th in the world, when it
comes to tourist numbers.

2.1 Economy

The Paris region is the leading economic area all over Europe. With around 640 billion
Euros in 2016, it makes up 4,6% of the European GDP, making its economic power as
big as the Netherlands and even more significant than Switzerland. This is not
surprising as the city accounted for 27% of France’s imports and 18% exports in 2015,
and is home to 944000 businesses, 11200 of them being foreign companies.
Furthermore, the area holds Europe’s leading business aviation airport, Paris Le
Bourget Airport, its most significant commercial real estate portfolio, with almost 53
million square meters, as well as Europe’s top business district, La Défense, that
includes 3600 businesses and a total of 180000 employees. It is also the leading
research and development cluster in Europe, employing over 155000 researchers and
assistants and spending 18,7 billion Euros in 2013.
Another significant advantage of the Paris region, compared to other business districts
and cities in Europe, is its lower cost. Paris came in before Berlin, London and Frankfurt
ranking seventh in the comparative cost analysis of over 100 cities by the KPMG, a
global network of professional firms providing audit, tax, and advisory services. This

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shows that office spaces are 2,4 times more expensive in London than in Paris. As a
result, Paris is home to 29 of the 500 largest companies listed in the Fortune Global
500.
On top of all that, Paris is expanding its innovative services and centers, marketing
them through innovation-inspired events, like Europe’s leading robotic event ‘Innorobo’
in 2016, and connecting them through the ‘Grand Paris’ project, that adds four new lines
and almost 200 kilometers of new track to the tram network by 2023. The nine different
and advanced innovation clusters include the Advancity Paris-Région project, for a
sustainable city and transport, ASTech Paris-Région, operating in aerospace, Cap
Digital Paris-Région, a digital and multimedia firm, Finance Innovation, a financing
company, Medicine Paris-Région, researching health and the biomedical field, Mov’eo,
a mobility and automotive cluster, Systematic Paris-Région, information and
communication technologies, and finally Cosmetic Valley and Elastopôle, in the
polymers sector.
The educational field is not to be neglected either since France has 21 top-ranked
business schools, more than any other country in the entire world. Three of them,
located in Paris, among the top ten: HEC Paris, Essex Business School, and ESCP
Europe. Another record: Paris is the world’s best city for international students in 2016
and educates 67000 international students in the Paris region alone.
Finally, the 12000 start-ups, with a third located in Paris itself, are part of the city’s plans
to increase foreign startups within the city to 30% by 2020. ​20 facts and figures that
show how much the Île de France region has to offer. (2016, December 06)
A study made by the “Union of sport and cycle” has shown that the demand for sports
supplies has increased since 2007 and is still growing, at an average rate of 2,9% per
year in the last five years, until today. Most articles sold were shoes, sporting clothes,
and bikes plus biking equipment, equalling an annual turnover of 11,3 billion Euros in
2017 alone. ​Rey, P. (2018, March 16)
The most prominent sectors of the economy are without doubt tertiary ones like tourism,
financing, insurance, and other services. The Eiffel-Tower, for example, is the

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most-visited tourist attraction in the world and is only one out of many historical
buildings and tourist attractions in the city. The secondary sector, which is
manufacturing, is crucial to France’s economy, too. Peugeot and Renault are two of the
largest automobile manufacturers in the world and account for billions of Euros in the
GDP. Another excellent example of France’s secondary sector is energy, with
‘Electricite de France’ (EDF) being the largest utility company in the world and
accounting for 22% of total electricity used by the European Union in 2003. France’s
energy production consists of 78% nuclear energy and 19,5% renewable energy, which
is supposed to grow to 40% by 2030. ​Sawe, B. E. (2017, September 26)

2.2 Sport

One of, if not the most popular sport within Parisians, is football. The most practiced
sport, however, is cycling, practical and known through the internationally famous event
‘Tour de France.’ Tennis, athletics, basketball, handball, horse racing and judo are all
very popular as well. Paris has to offer high-quality facilities within for example the
‘Stade de France,’ ‘Stade Roland Garros,’ ‘Parc des Princes’ or the ‘AccorHotels Arena,’
and hosts quite a lot of national as well as international sporting events, including the
Tour de France, French Open Tennis Tournament,
Paris Marathon as well as half-marathon, Paris Judo Grand Slam and the Six Nations
Rugby Championship to name a few. ​Bureau, P. C. (n.d.)​ France has a total of around
4000 fitness clubs with a total of 5.460.000 members which equals 8,2% of its
population. Football is getting more popular, due to France winning the world
championship title in 2018. AS Bondy, a local football club with 800 members, actually
can’t take in any more of the almost 1000 applicants because they are running out of
space. Another, more famous, football club, called Olympic of Marseille, went from 271
members to 352 in just a few months.​ Olympice Marseille. (2018, August 22)

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According to France’s physical activity factsheet, made by the WHO, 48,4% of all males
and 41,4% of all women between 18 and 65 years of age, reach the recommended
amount of physical activity. Older adults, from 65 years up score better with 71% in
males and 61% in females. The lowest scoring ones are children and adolescents
between 11 and 14 years old, where 16% male and only 6,8% female, followed by 15 to
17-year-olds that score 63% in males and 24% in females. ​World Health Organisation.
(2015, September 22).
France did not have its national standard regarding physical activity for a long time and
used the WHO’s, but in 2015 the ‘l’Observatoire national de l’activité physique et de la
sédentarité,’ which translates to the National Observatory for Physical Activity and
Sedentary Behaviour was founded and took over. The website of the ONAPS states
that, all over France, only 43% live up to the recommended health status and physical
activity recommendations, while 24% are at a medium level, equalling a 30-minute walk
per day, and the last 33% is at an insufficient niveau. ​Lessons, D. I. (n.d.)​ The Olympic
Games 2024 will be a big deal in Paris, with the games and most attractions held at
historical sights and buildings in the city center, for example, beach volleyball close to
the Eiffel Tower. The swimming for the triathlon and swimming marathon will be held in
the Seine. Most stadiums and sporting places being used during the games are already
existing, and visitors will travel to the games mostly by metro, train, and bus, using
sustainable energy. However, north of the city center, in the poor district of
‘Saint-Denis’, approximately 1500 new houses will be built for the games and sold
afterward. ​La Flamme. (n.d.)

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 2.3 Health

The french healthcare system is considered as one of the best in the world,to be exact it
was ranked on the first place in 2000 as the World Health Organisation compared 191
countries.​World Health Organization's Ranking of the World's Health Systems. (n.d.)​ It
is highly accessible for everyone and provided to every resident of France regardless of age,
income or status, including foreigners after a residence of 3 months. ​A guide to the French
healthcare system. (n.d.). ​ P
​ rivate ​and public hospitals are covert as well as doctors and
specialists, furthermore are 70% to 80% of the doctor visit fees covered ,while costs of major
and long-term patients as well as low income patients are borne.
France obesity rate is amongst the lowest in OECD countries, nonetheless from 2000
until 2016 the amount of obese people increased averagely in OECD countries by 27%
whilst france has risen almost 61%​. ​Health policy in France. (n.d.) ​Another adulthood obesity
prevalence forecast constructed by the WHO indicated that in 2020, 19% of men and 22% of
​ hauliac,
women will ​be obese and by 2030, 25% of men and 29% of women will be obese.​ C
M. (n.d.)
As a consequence France uses social media to increase the awareness and brought
more traditional communication policies like food labelling and the regulation of
marketing to life in order to decrease problem of obesity. Furthermore in october 2001
the campaign “​Manger Bouger” ( eat move) ​was brought to existence compound four ad
campaigns with the goal to reduce obesity, increase physical activity, improve eating
habits and reduce the prevalence of nutritional disorders. As the main tool used for

10
those campaign are descriptions of concrete steps to take to eat better day by day.
Malvezin, C. (2015, May 06).
With many health programs France has been over the years more aware of health
issues in their country. Another health goal France is trying to achieve is the ​“smoke
free generation”​ and introduced its National Smoking Reduction Plan (NSRP) running
until 2019. In france over 13 million people smoke on a daily basis and almost 73.000
people die through tobacco each year. Most of the french smokers, around 80%, got
into smoking still as minors. The program focuses on three areas: how to protect young
people and prevent their first steps into smoking, in France the average age of smokers
to have their first experience is 14; to make current smokers quit, in France 31% of the
15 to 75 aged people are ex-smokers and approximately 60% of the current smokers
want to quit; along with decreasing the influence of the tobacco industry, Frances
tobacco industry costs the health industry yearly around 18 billion euros.​ ​National
Smoking Reduction Plan 2014-2019. (n.d.)
In France also takes every year the Mental Health Week place to promote mental health
awareness for past 27 years. Organized by civil society organizations and mental health
professionals with the purpose to fight ignorance, stigma and exclusion around mental
health. In 2016 the sum of mental health disorders in France in general practice was
17.57%, while the most common disorders were “depression”, with 5.9%, “anxiety
disorders” or “state of anxiety” with 2.3%, and “sleep eruption” with 3.3%​. ​Mental Health
Disorders in General Practice in France: A Cross-Sectional Survey. (n.d.)

For more information see Appendix - The complete DNA of Paris “Health”

2.4 Social

Population of Paris Demographic

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Paris has a young, dynamic and multicultural population. With over 12 million
inhabitants in the metropolitan area and 2.2 million inhabitants just in the centrum of
Paris, it has 18.2% of France population. With an average age of 40 years is the
population in Paris not just about 1.5 years younger than in overall France but
additionally live longer with a life expectancy up to 80.8 years as a male and 85.9 years
as a female. ​Paris Region Key Figures 2017.​ (n.d.)
As seen in the graph above, Paris elderly population is below 20%, and the birth-death
ratio is on a healthy level, compared to other middle and western European countries.

Immigration

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​ aris Region Key Figures 2017. (n.d.)
P ​ Population by Race/Ethnicity. (n.d.)

Over 1.6 million people of the Paris population are foreign; this corresponds to 13.1%.
As you can see in the table above, the diversity of its inhabitants' culture is a fusion in
the middle of France and strictly increasing. In the timeframe from 2013 to 2015, the
immigration percentage increased from 7.3% to 20.4% in Paris. ​Paris. (n.d.)
In 2016 France had a permanent inflow of 259.000 immigrants​,(OECD (2018).​
In the table above the nationalities of incoming immigrants can be seen. Of that 13.1 %,
foreign inhabitants are over 46.2% of African origin, 31.9% coming from Europe and
16.7% from Asia. As described in the table of population by race and ethnicity, is the
population majority white followed by black people.

Quality of Life
The Quality of Life is an individual’s perception of their position in life in the context of
the culture and value systems in which they live and concerning their goals,
expectations, standards, and concerns. It is a broad-ranging concept affected complexly
by the person's physical health, psychological state, personal beliefs, social
relationships and their relationship to salient features of their environment. WHO. (2018,

13
June 20). See Appendix 2. To understand the factors which play into the Quality of Life
better, the Better life index of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and
Development (OECD) got brought to life in 2011 to measure and compare the
well-being of a countries population internationally. ​OECD Better Life Index. (2018,
September 20).
Numbeo, on the other hand, is the world’s most extensive database about cities and
countries worldwide and provides current and timely information on world living
conditions including the cost of living, housing indicators, health care, traffic, crime, and
​ eleport cities are specialized in analyzing and comparing 266 countries
pollution. ​(n.d.) T
in their quality of life to enables users and professionals to find suitable cities for
everyday life and work, based on their preferences and with the help of locals. ​About
Teleport, Inc. (n.d.).

Numbeo. (2018, July 30) ​Quality of life in Paris, France. (n.d.).

Housing

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​Quality of life in Paris, France. (n.d.)

​Arrondissement (Paris). (2018, March 14)

Housing prices in Paris variate in different housing districts. Dissimilar from other cities
the 20 districts in Paris are laid out in an outwards working spiral and are referred to by
their number. Within the arrondissements are three price ranges, while the city center
and districts directly contiguous to the center are very expensive with an average rent
between 1800€ and 2800€ for a two-bedroom apartment, are the districts surrounding
the heart of Paris of moderate pricing from 1400€ to 2000€ for a two-bedroom
apartment. Two districts in Paris are affordable, in the very south and north of the city
with an average price range of 1200€ to 1700€ for a two-bedroom apartment.
However, Paris also has excellent options for lower budgeted people. Suburbs and
towns located 15 km to 20 km outside of the center offer great locations for low budget
with an average price range of 900€ to 1500€. ​Where to live near Paris. (n.d.).

Cost of living

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Quality of life in Paris, France. (n.d.). Cost of Living. (n.d.)

Paris is in the ‘’Europe top 15 most expensive cities to live in’’ list, at the 14th place.
Above you can see a table with examples for different aspects that fall into the cost of
living, like transportation, groceries, services and leisure. As in other famous tourist
destinations is Paris a diverse city that offers a wide field of options for all budgets, from
expensive lifestyle, to families and students on a budget. Entertainment such as
attractions and restaurants close by have a more expensive outlay, while regions more
secluded and mostly visited by the native population, are less expensive.

Safety

Quality of life in Paris, France. (n.d.).

How safe is Paris | Safety Tips & Crime Maps.

(n.d.).

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Paris is overall considered as a relatively safe city with an safety index of 68%.​How safe
is Paris | Safety Tips & Crime Maps. (n.d.). ​While the overall safety is considered
medium, the risk of being targeted by pickpocket thieves and scammers is higher in
central and tourist destinations, like crowded attractions or in the metro. However since
the terrorist attacks in November 2015 where 130 people got killed, is the tension for
travelers and parisians increasing. France has to deal with a major terrorism threat,
especially in Paris as being the capital of France. Three years after the huge attacks is
Paris recovering but still anxious. The bars and cafes as well as nightclubs are full once
again, but the people enjoying the nightlife life with the awareness that this could
happen again. Metros and trains are regularly delayed through suspicious bags or
packages. Police presence increased in tourist destinations and metro stations to
prevent violence along with crime and give inhabitants a feeling of safety. ​What
happened in France after the Paris terror attacks. (2016, November 11).
The Paris Police Prefecture distributes a leaflet entitled "Paris in Complete Safety" that
gives practical advice and valuable phone numbers for visitors. In a crisis, dialing 17 will
connect the caller to the police.
https://www.osac.gov/pages/ContentReportDetails.aspx?cid=15642

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Education

Quality of life in Paris, France. (n.d.)

Quality of life in Paris, France. (n.d.)

Education in Paris is considered high with Europe's largest pool of students and Ph.D.
candidates. With 30 international schools and 124 international programs are 16
different languages leading to the “international option” of France’s high school
graduation exam (OIB). Paris is a highly educated region with many graduates, 38.7%
of the adult population has a bachelor degree and every year participating students in
specialized schools like the Gobelins, best animation school worldwide, or the Ecole 42,
best coding school worldwide. Frances school system has a worldwide reputation with
business schools and management training programs. In 2013 over 19.900 students
achieved their Ph.D. degree, 213.200 students a Bachelor degree and 144.600 a
Masters degree. ​Paris Region Key Figures 2017. (n.d.)
The National education is supporting families with a moderate income and provides a
guaranteed revenue, depending on how old the children are. Children from 6-10 years
are supported with 363 €, 11 to 1-year-old children 383,03€ and families from 15 to
18-year-old students get support up to 396,29€. Secondary school scholarships are

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based on the income and number of dependent children, in 2014 the monthly support
was 84 to 357 euros, paid in three installments. Adaptation scholarships are available
for students with learning difficulties in primary or secondary school.

Employment

ZipParis. (n.d.).

Parisians have a high employment rate, just around 10.4% are unemployed. In the
graph above is the district unemployment rate in percentage pictured, next to it is the
annual salary revenue delineated. Comparing one to each other it can be seen, that the
parts where the unemployment rate is over 14%, also the annual salary is not as high
as in the rest of Paris. An average annual households income lays around 36,085
Euros, that is about 60% more than the national average, furthermore do people who
live in the West make more money than other parts of Paris.

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 Environmental quality

​The World Air Quality Index project.

(n.d.).

The environmental quality can be defined as ‘level and competition of the stream of all
​ nvironmental Quality:
environmental services, except the waste receptor services​. E
Meaning and Forms. (2016, June 28).​ ​ Those services include green spaces, air, water
and further.
The environmental quality in Paris is in the lower average compared to other countries.
463 parks and gardens cover 27% of Paris with green spaces,(Appendix 3) ​Statistics
About Paris, Parisians and Tourists. (n.d.).
The air pollution as seen in the graph above is with 79 considered moderate, the main
sources of pollution in Paris are transport, heating and industry. Between them is the
transportation with cars, delivery vehicles and trucks the biggest problem with being
responsible for 53% of the nitrogen oxides emissions in Paris. See appendix 4 to
understand how the Nitrogen dioxide emission looks throughout a day in Paris.
The water quality in Paris is good and tap water safe to drink, however it contains a very
high amount of lime. Most parisians buy bottled water or refill their bottles in one of the

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natural water fountains in the city, with numerous filter options available to reduce the
limestone content. ​Life in Paris: Air and Water Quality. (2018, June 21).

3. ​Scenario planning process

In the scenario planning process, the team had to figure out their key drivers. The two
key drivers are the ones with the highest impact and uncertainty in the diagram above:
Economy and segregation. In this case it was hard to choose between tourism and
segregation as they were pretty close, so the team decided to use economy from a
political point of view, in order to bring them together.

3.1 Issues and the drivers causing it

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Drivers, for example, technology, economy, tourism, and segregation, are very powerful
and influence most or even all other sectors, thanks to them being interconnected. They
cause positive and negative results, issues being the negative ones.
Tourism, for example, has the positive effect of improving the economy, giving people
jobs and branding the city. The adverse effects on the other side are prices going up in
touristy areas, driving the poor out of the center and into the less advantaged suburbs
further out of the city center.
Technology improves many services, makes tasks and life more comfortable, cheaper
and faster, but it is also responsible for people connecting less face-to-face due to
social media or losing their jobs to machines and robots. Pollution is a big issue Paris
has, the city itself is polluted with trash, and the air quality is decreasing due to
increasing traffic and industry. The noise pollution is also worth mentioning, as it
stresses people are living close to highways, airports and so forth and decreases the
quality of life.
Another big problem Paris has is the segregation in the city. The city is growing year by
year; overpopulation is starting to overstrain essential services, public transport
systems, roads and so on and the gap between the rich and poor is widening.

3.2 Four Plausible Scenarios

Key drivers: Segregation - Economy

Segregation < -- > Integration (x-axis)

Economy (High GDP) < -- > Economy (Low GDP) (y-axis)

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 4. ​Scenarios

The following scenarios are the result of setting segregation on the x-axis of the
diagram and economy on the y-axis. The scenario on the top left is a mix of segregation
and a strong economy with a high GDP, the one on the top right is integration paired
with strong economy with a high GDP, and on the lower end there are the two parts of
the scenario with a weak economy and a low GDP, each paired with segregation on the
left and integration on the right.
In the four scenarios below, short-, middle-, and long term expectations, impacts,
challenges and alternatives for the future until 2050 are explained in greater detail.

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 4.1 Scenario A: Low Political economy Vs. Segregation until 2040

2020, France steps out of the European Union after the election of its new president,
Marine Le Pen.

She establishes France’s old currency “Le Franc” which makes France the black sheep
of all current markets due to the ablation of the EU rules especially concerning the
import/export industry.
Indeed, taxes have significantly increased because of the new protectionism introduced.
The foreigner companies aren’t investing any more, and France tries to sustain itself
even though riots are taking over the streets of Paris and crimes are more severe and
remain unpunished due to the lack of policemen even though it increased, the number
of strikers is still higher because the population is trying to survive the massive
banishment and the economic failures.

2022, the new rules regarding immigration have just been publicly released, and all
non-french people have to leave the country other they will be cast out by force.
Even for non-native French, the situation is getting worse because of the waves of racist
acts. The streets become gang territories aggravating the pollution and degrading the
infrastructures and nature.
The maladjustment of the real estate prices causes gentrification in the city center
because of the rich native French people coming from the “Province” that need jobs,
and since many people left, the housing prices are attractive to them.

2024, the Olympic games happened to be canceled due to the critical status of Paris
both on economic and the population reasons.

24
Indeed, most of the visitors that wanted to come at that time canceled their tickets and
therefore, the Olympic games of 2024 were the most significant loss in the history of the
event.

2025, The Banque de France estimates the GDP that was already above 100% before
her election, and now it’s even getting higher which leads to inflation especially with the
new currency dropping and changing the whole system, interests rates are increasing,
power purchase lowers, tourism’s getting more and more complicated due to the new
policies and the exit of the Schengen zone and all those elements lead to an economic
crisis.

2028, the quality of life as a whole is being threatened by the pollution outgoing as well
since the financial situation isn’t improving and the people are losing their belongings,
nobody cares about throwing the garbage in cans, but even if they would, dustmen
aren’t paid any more, therefore they stopped working, and the whole city has become
polluted, and this is a real threat to people’s living expectancy.

2030, Segregation has taken upon, and Paris is not safe anymore. Money is more and
rarer, only native people are allowed in the city center with means that every other
people moved out, and the riots caused significant damages to Paris’s main buildings,
and streets, police officers do not get paid which leaves Paris defenseless.

2040, Paris’s bankrupted, all the economy has been wiped out, every citizen is leaving
the city because Hunger is upon the city, there is no more supply chain towards the
town, and the city cannot sustain itself.

4.2 Scenario B: High Political-economy & Integration until 2050

25
2020: France becomes more and more powerful and vital due to the election of its new
leaders, the committee AQO. This new committee has changed many things already
since their election; they are in charge of the whole capital city and about ⅔ of the
national territory. Their first changes regarding access to health and infrastructures
helped a lot to reduce the inequalities between the ethnicities.
They believe immigration is a massive opportunity for growth and success. Indeed they
improved the already existing “Pôle Emploi, the job finder organization” because, before
those improvements, it was slow and sometimes, this organization could not even work
due to the number of incoming people.

2025: The committee works so well that within five years, France has become
self-sustainable regarding food, health, new technologies and so on. As wealthy as it is,
they gave money to developing countries to help eradicate hunger. France has not been
that implicated in the UN Goals in ages; the unemployment rate has been halved,
poverty, reduced to 3% having less than the minimum wage within Paris.

2030; The Justice has less and fewer cases to take care of since the whole city is at
peace, the integration of everyone within the town has made a considerable change
concerning the look people have on them. Indeed, the security and well-being have
been highly increased, the number of Policemen has been cut by half by the
government and the AQO.

2035; Nature is not as respected in other countries as in France, which creates frictions
between the nations, although climate change has not been that crucial in the past
years.
The AQO allowed only the triple-A nature care rated cars into the city center of Paris to
highly decrease the air pollution and hired a lot more of dustmen to clean up the city.

26
The most significant proof of success was that roughly 15.000 of Paris inhabitant,
migrants & natives, came to help the dustmen to accelerate the cleaning and the come
back to Paris into one of the most respectful & healthy city.

2050; France steps up on the podium of the first economic power as well as the country
with its capital center as first regarding well-being & nature care.
Other countries including America have noticed the changes and are trying to improve
their own country using the french AQO model of Health.

4.3 Scenario C: High Economy and high Segregation

2020: Paris is intensively preparing the Olympic Games in 2024, the economy is stable
and grew in the last years averagely around 0.7%.

2025: The Olympic Games were a huge success, Paris grew in the interest of
international businessman who sees potential in the opening and moving their
businesses.
The economy is growing dramatically. The circular economy is increasing to address
the rising threats of climate change, which creates over 100.000 new jobs in the green
economy.
More tourists than ever stream into the city, admiring Paris attractions and the newly
build sports facilities. In order of the Games, more public green spaces were created,
and the transportation improved. Private housing is deregulated, and foreign investors
devote real-estates, letting the housing prices drastically increase to build priority
neighborhoods. People who used to live in the city center start moving to the suburbs of
Paris. Small riots about the housing situation start to flare up.

27
2030: Paris banned all petrol-fuelled cars from the city and ensured sustainable
management of the natural ecosystem by enhancing landscapes and bringing nature to
the city. Only the upper society and wealthy investors live in the city center of Paris, all
other inhabitants are living now outside of Paris and only come for work into the
centrum, just a few could remain in their houses due to ownership or sub-renting their
renovated accommodations to tourists. The suburbs density is increasing, and poverty
is rising dramatically. Average income inhabitants replace people with a low income
who used to live in the houses of the suburbs of Paris, rent is increasing, and lots of
people have to move to smaller flats or even further outside. Segregation along race
and class lines is expanding, the need for jobs is high, unemployed people have it even
harder to find a job due to the rising competition. The problem of education in the
banlieues is rising while in the city center high schools and universities are booming
with international students. The economy is growing within the heart of Paris with more
and more small businesses opening and startups with an international connection,
increasing the salary and GDP of Paris, making the wealthy inhabitants much more
productive.

2040: Paris city center is in development, more green spaces are established, the sale
of petrol and diesel cars is banned, and real estates build with innovations. First border
controls around the city center were introduced to reduce the number of beggars during
the day on tourist destinations and overall increase the feeling of safety for the
inhabitants. Through Paris green development there is an increased interest of people
all around the world, tourist numbers are increasing, new and high modern real estates
are built and sold as vacation apartments or for rent as hotel rooms. The atmosphere is
tensing in the outside of Paris, anger and dissatisfaction spreads

2050: Paris completely developed into a smart city and achieved its goals to reducing
75% of the greenhouse gas emissions, set in 2015. A total of 8 mixed towers got to
build in the heart of the city, combined with plants and trees, to repatriate the nature and

28
integrate the rules of bio climate in renewable and recyclable energy in order to
depollute and keep the air quality and sustainability of Paris high. It belongs to the top
10 smart cities worldwide and attracts many tourists and sets great examples for other
cities. Paris is furthermore completely truncated from its suburbs. Strict border controls
check each person coming in or out of Paris to keep the security for the rich population
up. a new suburb circle is surrounding Paris, average income inhabitants live close and
around Paris and differentiate the very poor from the center. The suburbs drown in the
trash, the poverty rate is high as never seen and the situation is reminiscent of the
banlieues crisis in 2005, where riots took over, and cars, houses, and busses were
being torched. Within the city center, those riots and protests cannot be sensed, it is a
very quiet and flowing atmosphere.

4.4 Scenario D: Bad Economy and Integration.

2020 France has a growing public debt thanks to France's budget deficit. Immigrants
are successfully being integrated into the Paris society due to different integration
programs, for example, the innovative food festival. Another problem coming in Paris is
that there aren’t enough places to live in because of the overpopulation of the city. The
government decides to make the integration of immigrants a priority and increases their
budget deficit to do so. Macron is reelected in 2021.

2025 Thanks to the spending on the Olympic games the France budget deficit has
grown over 5% and the public debt has gotten worse, so the government has made
massive cuts on all funds. This causes foreign enterprises to leave the city and smaller
businesses to close which makes that many people lose their jobs. Social cohesion
grows even more, and all the inhabitants of Paris help each other to find jobs and
housing.

29
2030 The economic crisis is getting worse, and that causes many revolts.The revolts
are made an participated in by all of the Paris population together they rise against the
French government because the people living in Paris cannot usually live due to having
to little finance to support themselves. The image of Paris is going down by all the
polemic going in Paris of all revolts. That causes just newly chosen
government/president to resign and leads to early reflections. The nationalistic party
gets elected. France is not helping the EU with the economy, so they lose the image
they had as one of the strongest pillars of the EU.

2040 France steps out of the European Union. The Paris economic district has barely
any international companies, and local businesses are growing. The economic crisis is
still present, but people have learned to live with it. Parisians support each other in
every way and try to have useful lives altogether.

2050 France tries to get back into the EU again which causes revolts in Paris because
people are now used to living and surviving together with the people surrounding them.

​5. Afterword

During the first block of the European Vital Cities course, the team worked together
quite well, split up tasks and distributed them depending on each group members
strengths and weaknesses. The communication and weekly meetings to discuss
progress however were lacking from time to time, and work that still needed to be done
was left to be done later sometimes or took place during regular classes. During the first
block the team learned not to postpone research for too long, structure work better and
lose distractions to be able to get on with the necessary tasks sooner.

30
During the first block the team learned that working together with the group in its entirety
is more effective than half of the team working from home. Also with the whole team
together we were more motivated to work.
In the second block, the team wants and needs to work on its communication, meet up
more often and regularly and to be present in lectures as a whole group, in order to do
quality work as often as possible. More work was done outside of the scheduled hours
for the project.

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Kwasniewski, V. (2011, April 27). Les origines de la devise française : Liberté Egalité
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Loumé, L. (2018, September 17). "Numerus clausus", urgences de ville, assistant

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national=true&r=US&IR=T

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Marine Le Pen wants to leave the euro - here's what that might mean for the 'new
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http://www.oecd.org/els/health-systems/obesityandtheeconomicsofpreventionfitnotfat-fra
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Schmitt, C. (2017, July 14). How Paris is supporting refugee integration through an
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38
WHO. (2015, September 22). FRANCE PHYSICAL ACTIVITY FACTSHEET. Retrieved
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WHO. (2018, June 20). WHOQOL: Measuring Quality of Life. Retrieved October 11,
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ZipParis. (n.d.). Retrieved from h

7. ​Appendix

The complete DNA of Paris “Health”

Healthcare system France

The French healthcare system is low waiting time, a good abundance of doctors,
considered as one of the best healthcare systems in the world, to be exact, it was
ranked on the first place in 2000 as the World Health Organisation compared 191
countries. This was the first and for now the last comparison of the world's healthcare
systems, the ​World Health Organization's Ranking of the World's Health Systems. (n.d.)
However, still today France remains under the as top considered healthcare systems
with the highest quality medical services in the world. It is highly accessible for
everyone, provided to every resident in France regardless of age, income or status.
Since 2016 it is possible for foreigners through the healthcare system for foreigners

39
PUMA (Protection Universelle Maladie) to have access to the French healthcare after
three months of residence, irrelevant of their working status. ​A guide to the French
healthcare system. (n.d.).
Public and private hospitals, doctors and medical specialists are covert, and the state
covers a majority of the costs through a public healthcare scheme. It is compulsory to
register with a health insurer and doctor, furthermore got in 2018 a new phone line
introduced to find the closest available emergency doctors for treatment, 70%-80% of
those doctor visit fees are covered and paid by the government, while costs from
primary and long-term, along with low-income patients will be borne. With an EU
healthcare expenditure average percentage of 3.5% in 2015, Domestic general
government health expenditure as a percentage of GDP. (2018, February 22) France
spends more than most EU countries with 11.5% of the GDP on public health and has
the lowest heart disease mortality in Europe. With being the first country in 1988 where
the Cardiovascular disease was no longer the most significant cause of death France
placed first in the EURO HEART INDEX 2016. ​Björnberg, P. (2018, January 29)
Nevertheless are french doctors known for tending to medicalize many conditions and
giving out lots of drugs.
The government’s plans for the future of health in Paris includes to abolish the
“numerus clausus” due to too many failures in the famous entrance tests “PACES” to
become a doctor, furthermore to implement over 400 doctors in needing districts funded
by the government to also to prevent closing hospitals due to not highly enough trained
personnel and have top priority to stay open to public. Another vision is to interconnect
all medicine sectors to increase the communication, effectiveness of examinations and
the ability of immediate help in emergencies. ​Loumé, L. (2018, September 17)

Obesity
More than one out of two adults and approximately one out of six children are
overweight or obese in OECD countries ​Obesity Update 2017. (n.d.)​, with 40% of the
adults being obese (overweight included), which is equivalent with one out of ten adults,

40
France obesity rate is among the lowest in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development countries although it is strictly increasing. Organization for economic
cooperation and development. (2008, February/March)The National Institute of Health
and Medical Research reported nearly 16 percent of the adult population adipose in
2016 while it was just 6 percent in 1980. ​Associated Press. (2017, December 16).
From 2000 until 2016 the number of obese people increased averagely in OECD
countries by 27% while France has risen almost 61%. Health policy in France. (n.d.)
Projections indicate that overweight rates will increase by a further 10% within ten
years, while the obesity rate for children has not risen in 20 years, although it was
predicted to increase. Accompanying with studies that have shown a certain trend of
children being three times more likely to be overweight or obese themselves if growing
up within a family structure of obese individuals. Obesity and the Economics of
Prevention. (n.d.) Another adulthood obesity prevalence forecast constructed by the
WHO indicated that in 2020, 19% of men and 22% of women would be obese and by
2030, 25% of men and 29% of women will be obese. ​Chauliac, M. (n.d.)
As a consequence, France uses along with other OECD countries social media and
new technologies, revised arrangements for more traditional communication policies like
food labeling and the regulation of marketing in order to decrease the problem of
obesity.
Furthermore, taxation policies were implemented in order to increase the price of
potentially unhealthy products, high salt foods, sugar, fat and sugary drinks. In October
2001 the campaign
“Manger Bouger” ( eat move) was brought to life compound four ad campaigns with the
goal to reduce obesity, increase physical activity, improve eating habits and reduce the
prevalence of nutritional disorders.
The first ad campaign was launched in October 2001, educating in the benefits of eating
five portions of fruits and veggies a day, the second ad campaign followed in February
2004, encouraging 30 minutes of rapid walking or similar activity per day, taking the
stairs instead of taking the elevator and the usage of public transportation instead of the

41
car. The Ministry of Health and the French National Institute for Health Prevention and
Education included the limitation of consumption salty, sugary and fatty products in
2005. With short informational movies and slogans such as “try to avoid overeating
fatty, salty and sugary food”- written on processed food packages. June 2008 was the
last campaign launched combining two messages, to eat five portions of fruit and
vegetables and including to eat a starch every meal to limit consumption of salty and
fatty meals. The primary tool used for those campaigns are descriptions of concrete
steps to take to eat better day by day. ​Malvezin, C. (2015, May 06).
Being thin in Paris is still a persisting ideal that has to achieve and shows the other
trend represented in the high fashion city. In 2017 a campaign launched driven to
counter sizeism and discrimination against fat people “Fatphobia, stop! Taking action
together”. Paris anti-discrimination chief Helene Bidard declared: “We see fat people as
ugly and even stupid, lacking hygiene and in bad health.”
With the hope to put a new standard for the fashion industry, French luxury brands
stopped hiring excessively thin models; a new law got introduced which requires a
doctor's note in which the health of the model is certified before it can get hired as well
as an advertisers note if photos are retouched. ​Associated Press. (2017, December 16).
Offenders face a fee up to 81,000€ and six months of jail. Manfred, T. (2015,
December 18). Despite everything being in France still estimated 30,000 to 40,000
people suffering from anorexia. ​Bernstein, L., & Brown, C. (2015, March 19).

Health awareness
With many health programs, France has been over the years more aware of health
issues in their country. Another health goal France is trying to achieve is the
“smoke-free generation” and introduced its National Smoking Reduction Plan (NSRP)
running until 2019. In France, over 13 million people smoke on a daily basis, and almost
73.000 people die through tobacco each year. Most of the French smokers, around
80%, got into smoking still as minors. The program focuses on three areas: how to

42
protect young people and prevent their first steps into smoking, in France the average
age of smokers to have their first experience is 14; to make current smokers quit, in
France 31% of the 15 to 75 aged people are ex-smokers and approximately 60% of the
current smokers want to quit; along with decreasing the influence of the tobacco
industry, Frances tobacco industry costs the health industry yearly around 18 billion
euros. ​National Smoking Reduction Plan 2014-2019. (n.d.)
The program was funded by the government with over 32 million euros in 2016 and
launched two new campaigns, an awareness campaign over the impact of smoking, as
well as a “smoke-free month” encouraging the French population to stop smoking for
30 days as a social experiment. “France is now a model of the anti-smoking campaign
in Europe: we are not resigning ourselves to the scourge,” stated Marisol Touraine,
minister of social and health in 2017. ​France adopts strict new anti-smoking measures.
(n.d.).
In France also takes every year the Mental Health Week place to promote mental health
awareness for the past 27 years. Organized by civil society organizations and mental
health professionals with the purpose to fight ignorance, stigma, and exclusion around
mental health. With every year the movement got greater and with now over 23
organizational partners and over thousands of volunteers helping with the execution,
more than 1300 events organized across France during the Mental Health Weeks in
2016, to promote mental health in education, employment, communities and other
essential settings in everyday life. In 2016 the sum of mental health disorders in France
in general practice was 17.57%, while the most common disorders were “depression,”
with 5.9%, “anxiety disorders” or “state of anxiety” with 2.3%, and “sleep eruption” with
3.3%. ​Mental Health Disorders in General Practice in France: A Cross-Sectional
Survey. (n.d.)

7.1 Evidence

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Appendix 1:
Sustainable
Development
Goals by the
WHO

Appendix 2

44
 ​Appendix 3

Industrial Areas

Green Spaces

Appendix 4:
daily nitrogen
dioxide
emission
https://www.eco
nomist.com/gra
phic-detail/2016
/08/01/comparin
g-urban-air-poll
ution

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 7.2 Group and Peer assessment:

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1kLTa2wJ6jx191Ke0BzEwjyfepv456VakgrwGrc_Q
uzs/edit

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