FERTILITY

BASIC DEFINITIONS
Fertility: The ability to conceive children or young. The frequency of child
bearing among the population
Fertility rate: the relative frequency of live births in an area to the population
of that area; expressed per 1000 population per year.
Fecundity: the biological capacity to bear children.
Reproduction: the ability of the population to grow and to replace itself.
CRUDE BIRTH RATE (CBR)
The number of live births per 1,000 population.
𝐵
𝐶𝐵𝑅 = × 1000
𝑃

Where B in the number of live births that occur during a calendar year and P
is the mid-year population.
CRUDE BIRTH RATE (CBR)
Advantages: Its main advantages are its simplicity in calculation and the
ease with which it can be explained to general people.
Disadvantages: The rate measures the contribution of current fertility to
overall population growth, but it is not a very good index for comparing levels
of fertility. For example, it is affected by the composition of the population
with regard to age, sex and marital status. Other things being equal,
populations with an un-usual concentration of women in the reproductive
ages will have higher crude birth rates than other populations that may have
the same rate of child bearing per woman.
GENERAL FERTILITY RATE
(GFR)
General fertility rate is the yearly number of live births per 1,000 women of
reproductive age (usually considered to be 15-44 or 15-49).
𝐵
𝐺𝐹𝑅 = × 1000
35 𝑊15

Where B is the total live births that occur during a period of one year and
𝐵
is the total mid-year population of females of child bearing age in the
35 𝑊15
15-49 age group.
GENERAL FERTILITY RATE
(GFR)
Example: Suppose there were 178,390 births re-corded during the last
twelve months prior to the census or survey and the total number of women
in 15-49 age group was 1,018,447. What is the estimate of the general
fertility rate in this population?
Births during the past twelve months = 178,390. Women in 15-49 age group
35 𝑊15 = 1,018,447
𝐵 178390
𝐺𝐹𝑅 = × 1000 = × 1000 = 175.2 𝑝𝑒𝑟 1000 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒𝑑 15 − 49
35 𝑊15 1018447
GENERAL FERTILITY RATE
(GFR)
The GFR is easy to compute and it requires no additional information about
births. The measure, however, has two limitations:
(1) As a measure of fertility it is inadequate because the denominator
which measures women at risk has been approximated only roughly ; that it
does not take into account the distribution of women within the reproductive
age group (15-49) and the incidence of birth varies considerably within this
group.
(2) All unmarried women are included in the denominator.
AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY
RATES (ASFR)
The frequency of childbearing varies considerably from one age group to
another within the reproductive age group. This variation can be measured
by computing the age-specific fertility rates. The age specific fertility rate is
the yearly number of live births per 1,000 women in each of the seven age
groups (15-19, 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, 40-44 and 45-49). It is a valuable
measure of the current childbearing performance of women.
The age-specific fertility rate can be expressed symbolically as follows:
𝑛 𝐵𝑥
𝑓 = × 1,000
n x 𝑛 𝑊𝑥

Where nfx is the age-specific fertility rate of women aged x to x+n years, nWx
is the number of women aged x to x + n years at mid-year nBx is the number
of births to women aged x to x+n years during the calendar year.
AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY
RATES (ASFR)
Table: Calculation of Age-Specific Birth Rates, the Total Fertility Rate and the
Gross Reproduction Rates
Total no. of births Age-specific
Age group No. of women in the past 12 fertility rates per
months 1,000
15-19 410,352 56,403
20-24 378,163 97,166
25-29 377,011 93,415
30-34 296,799 57,694
35-39 235,697 34,478
40-44 190,328 13,078
45-49 148,534 4,546
Total

Note the sex ratio at birth is 103 male births to 100 female births.
AGE-SPECIFIC FERTILITY
RATES (ASFR)
Table: Calculation of Age-Specific Birth Rates, the Total Fertility Rate and the
Gross Reproduction Rates
Total no. of births in Age-specific fertility
Age group No. of women
the past 12 months rates per 1,000
15-19 410,352 56,403 137.5
20-24 378,163 97,166 256.9
25-29 377,011 93,415 247.8
30-34 296,799 57,694 194.4
35-39 235,697 34,478 146.3
40-44 190,328 13,078 68.7
45-49 148,534 4,546 30.6
Total 2,036,884 356,780 1,082.2
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR)
Total fertility rate is the number of children a woman would have from age 15
to 49 if she were to bear children at the prevailing age-specific rates (or the
average number of children a woman will have if she experience a given set
of age-specific fertility rates through her lifetime). It is usually derived from
actual or assumed age-specific fertility rates. The rate is obtained by
summing over all the age-specific fertility rates for each year of the
childbearing span.
The total fertility rate (TFR) can be represented symbolically as follows:
𝑇𝐹𝑅 = 𝑛 σ44
𝑥=15 𝑛 𝑓𝑥
TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR)
𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑓𝑒𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 𝑇𝐹𝑅 = 5 σ 𝑛 𝑓𝑥
= 5 × 1,082.5 = 5,411
GROSS REPRODUCTION
RATE (GRR)
Gross re production rate if the average number of daughter a woman would
have or bear if she experiences a given set of age-specific fertility rates
through the reproductive ages with no allowance for mortality over this
period. This index equals total fertility times the proportion of births that are
daughter. It is a good index for measuring changes in future fertility potential.
It is often interpreted as showing the extent to which the generation of
daughters would replace the preceding generation of females of fertility
remains constant.
𝑇𝐹𝑅
𝐺𝑅𝑅 =
1+𝑆𝑒𝑥 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜 𝑎𝑡 𝑏𝑖𝑟𝑡ℎ
GROSS REPRODUCTION
RATE (GRR)
𝑇𝐹𝑅 5411
𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒 (𝐺𝑅𝑅) = = = 2665.5
1+1.03 2.03
NET REPRODUCTION RATE
(NRR)
Net reproduction rate R0 is the average number of daughter that a woman
will bear if she experiences a given set of age-specific fertility rates
throughout the reproductive ages with allowance made for mortality of
women over their reproductive years. Its primary significance is that a net
reproduction rate having the value R0 shows that if fertility and mortality
remain as they are, the population will eventually grow by (R0-1) x 100 per
cent per generation (or decline by 100 (R0-1) per cent per generation if R0 <
1). For example, a net reproduction rate of R0 means that 1,000 girl babies
will produce in the course of their lives 1,000 R0 female babies if fertility and
mortality continue at the levels of a given year.
CHILD – WOMAN RATIO
(CWR)
The child-woman ratio (fertility ratio) is the number of children per 1,000
women of child bearing age. Various ages of children have been used, but
usually the numerator refers to children aged 0-4, 5-9 or 0-9, and the
denominator refers to woman aged 15-49, 20-54 or 15-54. CWR is defined
symbolically as follows:
5𝑃 0 5𝑃 5 10𝑃 0
𝐶𝑊𝑅 = ; ;
35𝑊 15 35𝑊 20 40𝑊 15
MEAN, MEDIAN & MODAL AGE
AT CHILDBEARING
Total no. of births during past 12
Age group Total no. of women
months

15-19 410352 56403

20-24 378163 97166
25-29 377011 93415
30-34 296799 57694
35-39 235697 34478
40-44 190328 13078
45-49 148543 4546
MEAN, MEDIAN & MODAL AGE
AT CHILDBEARING
Total no. of births Average no. of
Age Total no. of Mean
during past 12 births during past fixi
group women age, xi
months 12 months, fi
15-19 410352 56403 0.13745 17 2.336655
20-24 378163 97166 0.256942 22 5.652726
25-29 377011 93415 0.247778 27 6.690004
30-34 296799 57694 0.194387 32 6.220398
35-39 235697 34478 0.146281 37 5.412398
40-44 190328 13078 0.068713 42 2.885944
45-49 148543 4546 0.030604 47 1.438385
Total 2036893 356780 1.082156 30.63651
MEAN, MEDIAN & MODAL AGE
AT CHILDBEARING
σ 𝑓𝑖 𝑥𝑖 30.63651
𝑀𝑒𝑎𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒 = σ 𝑓𝑖
= = 28.3 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
1.082156
MEAN, MEDIAN & MODAL AGE
AT CHILDBEARING
Total no. of Average no. of
Age Total no. Cumulative Age group
births during births during past
group of women frequency (exclusive)
past 12 months 12 months, fi
15-19 410352 56403 0.13745 0.137 14.5-19.5
20-24 378163 97166 0.256942 0.394 19.5-24.5
25-29 377011 93415 0.247778 0.642 24.5-29.5
30-34 296799 57694 0.194387 0.837 29.5-34.5
35-39 235697 34478 0.146281 0.983 34.5-39.5
40-44 190328 13078 0.068713 1.052 39.5-44.5
45-49 148543 4546 0.030604 1.082 44.5-49.5
Total 2036893 356780 1.082156
MEAN, MEDIAN & MODAL AGE
AT CHILDBEARING
σ𝑓𝑖
−𝐹 0.541−0.394
2
𝑀𝑒𝑑𝑖𝑎𝑛 𝑎𝑔𝑒 = 𝐿𝑚 + ∗ 𝑐 = 24.5 + × 5 = 27.5 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
𝑓 0.248
MEAN, MEDIAN & MODAL AGE
AT CHILDBEARING
Total no. of births Average no. of births
Age Total no. of Age group
during past 12 during past 12
group women (exclusive)
months months, fi
15-19 410352 56403 0.13745 14.5-19.5

20-24 378163 97166 0.256942 19.5-24.5

25-29 377011 93415 0.247778 24.5-29.5

30-34 296799 57694 0.194387 29.5-34.5

35-39 235697 34478 0.146281 34.5-39.5

40-44 190328 13078 0.068713 39.5-44.5

45-49 148543 4546 0.030604 44.5-49.5

MEAN, MEDIAN & MODAL AGE
AT CHILDBEARING
∆1
𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑎𝑙 𝑎𝑔𝑒 = 𝐿𝑜 + ∗𝑐
∆ 1 + ∆2
0.256942−0.13745
= 19.5 + ×5
0.256942−0.13745 + 0.256942−0.247778

= 24.1 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠
AGE PATTERN OF FERTILITY:
Early peak Broad peak Late peak
30

25
RELATIVE ASFR

20

15

10

0
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
AGE IN YEARS
AGE PATTERN OF FERTILITY:
The UN classifies age-specific fertility distributions in three broad groups:
1. Early peak type (maximum fertility in the age group 20-24)
2. Late peak type (maximum fertility in the age group 25-29)
3. Broad peak type (ASFR in the age group 20-24 and 25-29 differ only
slightly)