Question 1

Let total orders of restaurant are 100.

Orders filled by Alicia = 45

Orders filled by Juan = 25

Hence, Orders filled by Alex are 100 – (45 + 25) = 30

Name of person Total orders filled Incorrectly filled Correctly filled orders
orders
Alex 30 (30*0.2) = 6 (30 * 0.8) = 24
Alicia 45 (45*0.12) = 5.4 (45 * 0.88) = 39.6
Juan 25 (25 * 0.05) = 1.25 (25 * 0.95) = 23.75
Total 100 12.65 87.35
Table 1: Orders status of fast food restaurant
Calculations:

a. Probability that Alicia filled the order P(Alicia) = (45/100) = 0.45

b. Probability that order was filled correctly given that it was filled by Juan =
P(Correct/Juan) = (23.75/25) = 0.95

c. Revised probabilities that Alex, Alicia, or Juan filled the order given that the order was
filled incorrectly
P(Alex/Incorrect) = (6/12.65) = 0.4743
P(Alicia/Incorrect) = (5.4/12.65) = 0.4268
P(Juan/Incorrect) = (1.25/12.65) = 0.988

d. Revised probabilities that Alex, Alicia, or Juan filled the order given that the order was
filled correctly
P(Alex/Correct) = (39.6/87.35) = 0.2747
P(Alicia/Correct) = (24/87.35) = 0.4533
P(Juan/Correct) = (23.75/87.35) = 0.3131
2 Solution

Let total Adults be = 100

Recycle

Y N Total

Y 40 15 55

Banning N 60 * 0. 45 = 45-27 = 18 45
27
Total 67 33 100

Table 2: Results of retail study by Deloitte

a. Probability that the adult recycles AND does not believe that plastic, non compostable
shopping bags should be banned = (27/100) = 0.27

b. Probability that the adult recycles = (40 + 27) = (67/100) = 0.67

c. Probability that the adult does recycle OR does believe that plastic, non compostable
shopping bags should be banned = (55 + 67 – 40) = 82/100 = 0.82

d. Probability that the adult does not recycle OR does not believe that plastic, non
compostable shopping bags should be banned = (33 + 45 – 27) = 51/100 = 0.51

e. Probability that the adult does not believe that plastic, non compostable shopping bags
should be banned given that the adult does recycle = 27/67 = 0.4029
Question 3

Let total stock investors be 100

Retired investors = 20

Non- retired investors = 80

Hence, Probability of retired investors (p) = 0.2

Probability of retired investors (q) = 0.8

Sample size (n) = 20

a. According to Binomial Distribution,

P(x) = nCx px q(n-x)
Hence, P(x=8) = 20C8 * (0.2)8*0.8(20-8)
= 0.0221

b. Probability that 12 or more are retired people

P(x>=12) = 1- P(x<12)
= 0.00010172876

c. E(x) = n * p
= 20 * 0.2 = 4

d. Let Total Investors = 100

Investors who invest in mutual funds = 40
Investors who don’t invest in mutual funds = 60
Hence, Probability of investors who invest in mutual funds (p) = 0.4
Probability of Investors who don’t invest in mutual funds (q) = 0.6

Sample size (n) = 20

P(x=10) = 20C10 * (0.4)8*0.6(20-10)
= 0.117

e. Probability that fewer than 5 adults invested in mutual funds

P(x<5) = 0.0509

f. Probability of Investors who don’t invest in mutual funds (q) = P(x=0)

P(x=0) = 0.00003
 g. probability that 15 or more adults invested in mutual funds in sample of 20 (n=20)
P(x>=15) = 0.0016

h. For parts e-g the number which produces highest provability is 8. It is same as expected
value of this binomial distribution. As in binomial distribution, the highest probability is
always at mean value and it decreases as we move away from it.

Question 4

λ = 3.2 cars for time interval of 2 hours.

i.e λ = 1.6/1hour and λ = 0.8/30mins

a. Probability that three cars will arrive to use the diesel pump during a one-hour period
In this example, intervals for lambda and the sample are different. The intervals must be
the same in order to use λ and x together in the probability formula.
Hence, as interval is halved we will half λ.
So, now λ = 3.2/2 = 1.6 cars per hour
Using Poisson’s Distribution formula,
P(x) = (λx e- λ)/x!
P(3) = (1.63 * e-1.6)/3!
= 0.137

b. P(0) = (0.80 * e-0.8)/0!

= 0.449

c. λ = 1.6/1hour
P(x>=5) = 1-P(x<5)
= 1 – [0.2 + 0.322 + 0.25 + 0.13 + 0.05]
= 0.02368
Conclusion: If the petrol pump has been averaging 1.6 cars per hour, it is unlikely that
more than 5 car would randomly arrive in any one hour period. This answer indicates that
more than 5 car would randomly arrive in one hour period only 2.36% of the time.

-------------------------------------------------- END----------------------------------------------------------