THINKING SKILLS ASSESSMENT (TSA)

TEST SPECIFICATION

2019
Critical Thinking
Critical Thinking in the context of the TSA can best be made clear by the following definition: In an
argument, reasons are put forward as grounds for a conclusion. The argument is a good argument
provided its conclusion follows from the reasons. That is to say, if you accept the reasons, you must accept
the conclusion. For the purposes of the Critical Thinking assessment, the reasons given should be
accepted as being true.

Here is an example of a simple argument:

Jill promised she would attend the meeting or send a substitute. We know she can't attend the meeting. So
we are expecting a substitute.

The structure of this argument is as follows:

Reasons: Jill promised she would attend the meeting or send a substitute. We know she can't attend the
meeting.

Conclusion: So we are expecting a substitute.

In this case, the conclusion appears at the end of the argument, and is introduced by the word "so".
Sometimes a conclusion may be introduced by words such as "therefore", "thus", "it follows that". However,
sometimes a conclusion may not contain any such word. It is also important to note that a conclusion may
appear at the beginning of, or in the middle of, an argument, rather than at the end. For example, the above
argument could have been written in this way:

We know Jill cannot attend the meeting. We are expecting a substitute. She promised she would attend the
meeting or send a substitute.

or in this way:

We are expecting a substitute for Jill. We know she cannot attend the meeting, and she promised she
would attend or send a substitute.

In both these cases, "We are expecting a substitute (for Jill)" is the conclusion, because it is the statement
which follows from, or is supported by, the rest of the passage.

Some arguments may omit a crucial stage in the reasoning - an assumption which must be made in order
for the conclusion to follow. Here is an example:

She doesn't stand much of a chance. The polar bear is right behind her.

In this argument it is not explicitly stated that polar bears are dangerous, but the conclusion that "she
doesn't stand much of a chance" depends upon the belief that polar bears are dangerous. This belief is
taken for granted, or assumed.

In summary, the features of arguments are:

reason(s)
conclusion(s) (which may or may not be introduced by words such as "so", "therefore")
assumption(s) i.e. crucial parts of the argument which have not been stated.

Arguments can be much more complex in structure than the examples given so far and they can be
lengthy. But whatever their length and complexity, there are certain skills involved in understanding and
evaluating arguments. These include: drawing and summarising conclusions, identifying assumptions and
reasoning errors, and assessing the impact of additional evidence.

The following examples show the seven kinds of questions you will find in the Thinking Skills Assessment.

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Example 2: Drawing a Conclusion

When you are asked which conclusion follows, you need to consider each of the statements A to E, and to
think about whether the information in the passage gives you good reasons to accept the statement.

Those in favour of coursework contributing to A-level grades say that this is much fairer than
assessment by exam only, as it means that students who are willing to work hard but who perform
poorly in exams will have a better chance of doing well. However, this arrangement currently allows
far more opportunity for cheating, casting doubt on its fairness. For example, there is a growing
market for customised essays, available (for a fee) via the internet. At the moment, the only deterrent
is a teacher's vigilance, but while teachers might identify work which seems atypical for individual
students, they won't necessarily detect when, for example, a student has had an unacceptable
amount of help from family or friends.

Which one of the following conclusions is best supported by the passage above?

A Assessment by coursework is not necessarily fairer than assessment by examination.

B The opportunities for cheating in coursework mean that A-levels should be assessed by
exams only.

C Traditional examinations are still the fairest way of grading A-level students.

D There is no entirely fair way of assessing students at A-level.

E Examinations do not assess how hard a student has worked.

Answer and explanation

The answer to this question is A, because the passage argues in the following way:

Firstly it presents the statement that the contribution of coursework in A-level assessment is seen to be
fairer than an examination only because it allows students who perform poorly in examinations but who
work hard to have a better chance of doing well.

However, it tells us that coursework is open to cheating through the buying of essays via the internet and
also that cheating is possible through having help from family and friends.

So, teachers are the only deterrent against cheating in coursework at the moment – as they can detect
some instances but not all.

Therefore, it concludes that the inclusion of coursework in A-level assessment does not mean the system is
fairer than assessment by examination only.

B goes further than the conclusion suggested by the passage. The phrase 'At the moment, the only
deterrent' suggests that other strategies may be employed in the future.

C refers to one of the reasons why the current system isn't fair, as a good student could perform badly on
the day of the examination and so not receive an appropriate assessment of their ability.

D goes further than the passage by suggesting that there is no fair way to assess students at A-level. This
may be true but is not claimed by the passage.

E while correct, is not a conclusion but is a part of the argument.

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 11 If Widgett and Co do not increase wages then staff morale will continue to drop and
productivity will fall. This would lead to smaller profits and could mean the end of the
business altogether. Either the company must pay better wages or run the risk of closing
down.

Which of the following best expresses the conclusion of this argument?

A Staff morale has reached dangerously low levels.

B If wages are not increased the business could close down.
C The employers will have to accept a fall in productivity.
D A fall in productivity could mean the end of the business.
E If wages are improved the company will be saved.

The first two sentences set out the consequences for the firm of not increasing wages: that staff morale will continue 
to drop and productivity will fall, leading to smaller profits and the possibility of the business coming to an end. The 
last sentence draws a conclusion about how the company must act in order to avoid these consequences: it must 
pay better wages or run the risk of closing down. To say that either one must do X, or Y will probably occur is 
equivalent in meaning to saying that if one does not do X, then Y may occur. B expresses this claim, and thus is the 
correct answer. 

A is not the conclusion because the argument does not make this claim. It goes so far as saying that staff morale will 
continue to drop unless wages are increased, but does not claim that morale is already at dangerously low levels. 

C is not the conclusion because the argument implies that productivity may not fall if the company increases wages. 

D is not the conclusion. It is one of the reasons for drawing the conclusion. 

E is not the conclusion because it goes beyond what the argument claims. The argument is limited to saying that 
paying better wages is necessary to avoid the risk of closing down, which does not imply that paying better wages 
will guarantee the survival of the company.   
21 Many modern zoos have abandoned the idea of showing large numbers of animals in
favour of programmes of conservation illustrated by a few examples of endangered
species. However, the only way for a zoo to attract the public is to have lots of interesting
animals, whether endangered or not - the sort that everybody flocks to see. Unless zoos
attract the public, they are not likely to be profitable.

Which one of the following conclusions is best supported by the passage above?

A Endangered animals do not attract the public.

B Zoos which have lots of interesting animals make a profit.
C Public interest in conservation programmes and endangered species is very
limited.
D Zoos which concentrate on conservation and a few endangered species are
unlikely to make a profit.
E Popular zoos are the only ones that can afford programmes of conservation.

In the final two sentences of the passage we are told that if zoos do not have lots of interesting animals, they will not 
attract the public, and that zoos which do not attract the public will not be profitable. It follows that any zoo which 
does not have lots of interesting animals will not be profitable. The first sentence describes modern zoos that have 
abandoned the idea of showing large numbers of animals in favour of programmes of conservation illustrated by a 
few examples of endangered species. Since we have concluded that zoos without lots of interesting animals will not 
be profitable, and since the zoos which concentrate on conservation will not have lots of animals, we can conclude 
that such zoos are not likely to make a profit. This is expressed in D. 

A is not supported by the passage, because the passage says that having lots of interesting animals is necessary to 
attract the public, and it does not say that endangered animals are not interesting. 

B does not follow from the passage. The passage implies that if a zoo does not have lots of interesting animals, it will 
not make a profit, but this does not imply that if it a zoo does have lots of interesting animals, it will definitely make 
a profit. 

C cannot be drawn as a conclusion from the passage. Although people may not be attracted by zoos that 
concentrate on the conservation of endangered species, they may nevertheless be interested in television 
programmes about endangered species, or in contributing to organisations such as the World Wildlife Fund. 

E is not supported by the passage, because it goes further than the evidence given. The passage asserts that many 
modern zoos are engaging in conservation programmes, so clearly they can afford to do so, perhaps from sources of 
funding other than profits from public attendance.  
23 In the 1960s the drug cardiokind, after the usual period of carefully monitored clinical
trials, was declared by its manufacturers to be unusually safe and very effective in
lowering cholesterol levels in the blood. The World Health Organisation carried out
exactly the same kind of trial on the drug but for a much longer period than the usual five
years. The results in 1980 showed that the mortality rate from all causes for those on
cardiokind was 25 per cent higher than for those who, though similar in other respects,
had not taken the drug.

Which of the following is a conclusion that can be drawn from the above passage?

A The five-year trial period may not be sufficient for all drugs.
B Taking cardiokind reduces life expectancy by 25 per cent.
C Cardiokind is less effective at reducing cholesterol levels than was at first
thought.
D After the original trials, the manufacturers concealed the side-effects of
cardiokind
E The monitoring programme instigated by the World Health Organisation was
carried out efficiently

The passage relates to two trials carried out on the drug cardiokind, the first by the manufacturers of the drug and 
the second by the World Health Organisation. The first trial reported that the drug was safe and effective; the 
second lasted much longer than the usual five years and found that taking the drug was associated with a 25 per 
cent higher mortality rate. This suggests that taking cardiokind for a period longer than five years may put one at risk 
of earlier death. Thus we can conclude that for some drugs, a five year monitoring period may not be sufficient to 
reveal adverse effects of taking the drug. This is expressed in A. 

B does not follow, because the figure of 25 per cent refers to an increase in mortality rate, which is not the same as a 
decrease in life expectancy. We only know that more died amongst those who took the drug, not that those who 
died had their life expectancy curtailed by a quarter. 

We cannot conclude C because we do not know the causes of the deaths of those who were taking cardiokind. If the 
drug were responsible for their deaths, this may have been because of side‐effects rather than because of its failure 
to reduce cholesterol levels. 

D cannot be drawn as a conclusion, because any side‐effects of the drug may not have been evident during the five 
years that it was monitored by the manufacturers.  

It is reasonable to assume that the World Health Organisation was efficient, but this cannot be concluded from the 
fact that their trial produced a result different from that of the manufacturers. So E is not supported by the passage.   

   
 33 There is a great concern about the threat to natural woodland in the world, especially the
rain forests of tropical areas such as South America. People are often urged to re-cycle
paper in order to save trees. However, the type of wood used for paper is softwood which
is grown as a renewable crop in areas where there is no remaining natural
woodland. Producing paper from these trees does not harm the natural environment any
more than does the production of bread from wheat.

Which one of the following is a conclusion which can be drawn from the above passage?

A Re-cycling paper will not contribute directly to saving the world's natural
woodland.
B There is no point in re-cycling paper for environmental reasons.
C There is no need to be concerned about a threat to the world's natural
woodland.
D The environment is not threatened by the cultivation of softwood forests.
E There is no need to reduce the amount of paper being used in the modern
world.

The passage says that paper is produced from softwood grown as a renewable crop in areas without natural 
woodland. So no natural woodland is destroyed in order to produce paper, and thus we can conclude that re‐cycling 
paper will not have an effect on attempts to save natural woodland. So A is the conclusion that can be drawn from 
the passage. 

B does not follow from the passage, because the passage is concerned mainly with growing trees for paper. But the 
wood has to undergo a production process, which may have greater effects on the environment than would the 
process of re‐cycling paper. 

C does not follow because there may be potential threats to woodland other than paper production, for example, 
clearance of forests to make space for crop‐growing. 

D cannot be drawn as a conclusion. The passage says that the production of paper is no more harmful to the 
environment than the production of bread from wheat, but since both involve industrial processes, there may be 
effects on the environment, and if the scale of paper production were greatly increased the effects could be 
threatening. 

E cannot be concluded because there may be reasons other than the desire to preserve natural woodland for using 
less paper, e.g. reducing the scale of industrial production of paper. 

   
1 Socialist politicians are often taunted by their opponents for leading lifestyles similar to
those of their capitalist counterparts. The theme of the taunts runs like this; 'You object on
socialist principles to gross inequalities in the distribution of wealth; yet you enjoy a higher
personal standard of living than the majority of the population. Therefore you are not
really a socialist'. But the jibe can easily be answered, for there is no hypocrisy in arguing,
even from a privileged position, for a fairer and more equal society.

Which of the following is a conclusion which can be reliably drawn from the passage as a
whole?

A Socialists who enjoy personal wealth cannot object to others who amass even
greater wealth.
B Someone can be a genuine socialist whilst enjoying a high standard of living.
C Calls for reform are more effective if they come from the more privileged
classes of society.
D There is nothing immoral about inequalities in the distribution of wealth.
E It is hypocritical to claim to be a socialist if one enjoys a standard of living
above the average.

2 Random drug-testing of prisoners was introduced in 1995 in order to solve the many
problems associated with prisoners taking drugs. Since cannabis can be detected in the
body up to a month after having been smoked, prisoners are tempted to switch to heroin,
which stays in the system for only 48 hours. As a result, since drug-testing was
introduced, cannabis use has declined by a fifth whereas heroin use has doubled. Heroin
is not only a much more damaging drug than cannabis, but it is also extremely
addictive. There is evidence that heroin addiction encourages prisoners to intimidate
others in order to pay for the drug.

Which one of the following is a conclusion which can be drawn from the above
passage?

A The test for detection of heroin in the body should be improved.

B Since 1995, cannabis use in prisons is at a lower level than heroin use.
C The drug-problem in prisons cannot be solved by random drug-testing.
D The system of drug-testing of prisoners has not solved the drug-problem in
prisons.
E The level of intimidation in prisons has doubled since the introduction of
random drug-testing.
3 Scientists are now developing genetically modified crop plants that produce their own
pesticide. But pesticides are only effective if they are not overused; if they are applied
continuously for long periods, then the pests that they are supposed to kill develop
resistance to them. Pesticides only remain effective against pests, therefore, if periods
are left during which they are not used. The genetically modified crop plants will produce
pesticides continuously.

Which of the following is a conclusion that can reliably be drawn from the above
passage?

A The pesticides produced by the genetically modified crop plants become

ineffective against pests.
B The genetic modification of crop plants will make the crops unusable, as they
will be contaminated with pesticide.
C The genetically modified crop plants will help to prevent the overuse of
pesticides.
D The development of genetically modified crop plants will enable more effective
use of pesticides, since periods may be left when they are not used.
E The development of genetically modified crop plants will mean that pesticides
need no longer be sprayed onto fields.

4 The effect of shortening degree courses at universities from three years to two would be
that students would have two-thirds as much time to think about their subject. The result
would be graduates whose understanding of their subject was shallower and whose
intellectual development was much less extended. Any measure that leads to a lowering
of the quality of graduates should be resisted by universities.

Which one of the following conclusions can reliably be drawn from the above passage?

A University graduates at present have an in-depth understanding of their

subject.
B Universities should oppose the shortening of degree courses to two years.
C Universities are not proposing to reduce the length of degree courses to two
years.
D Students should oppose moves by universities to shorten degree courses.
E Universities should adopt more rigorous standards for the award of degrees.
5 A dishonest act, such as stealing money from a handbag or cheating in school, may arise
for one of many different reasons. But the reasons may be consistent with the personality
of the individual involved. One child may steal, for example, in order to show off; another,
to get money to support a hobby (or to get a birthday present for a younger sister);
another, to express aggression or hatred against the person from whom he or she
steals. One child may cheat in order to avoid punishment for academic failure; another,
because of personal ambition; another to express contempt for the system.

Which one of the following is a conclusion that can be drawn from the passage above?

A It is wrong to assume that a child who is dishonest in one kind of situation will
be dishonest in others.
B A child who cheats does so for very complex reasons.
C A child whose motive is generosity towards someone else should not be
blamed for stealing.
D Underlying all dishonest acts is hostility towards others.
E Children who are neither exhibitionist nor aggressive nor acquisitive are
unlikely to steal money.

6 The so-called 'baby-boomer' generation (people born in Britain in the late 1940's /early
1950's) will enjoy a good chance of reaching a ripe old-age. They benefited from a diet
that was austere but healthy when they were children and this has influenced their adult
tastes. In addition, people in this age group have given up unhealthy activities such as
smoking cigarettes. In contrast, the generation represented by those currently in their 20's
and early 30's are in danger of experiencing serious health problems which would
decrease their life expectancy. This is the 'Big Mac' generation whose childhood diet was
high in fat and sugar, which they continue to crave. They also show worrying tendencies
to indulge in 'binge drinking' and other health-threatening activities.

Which of the following is a conclusion that can be drawn from the above passage?

A Health is largely determined by factors which the individual can control.

B Health education is becoming less effective in controlling behaviour.
C The trend towards ever-increasing life expectancy will be reversed.
D The 'Big Mac' generation would be wise to change their lifestyle.
E The health service will be put under greater strain in the future.
7 In 1997 the UK Government banned the owning of handguns after a man went on the
rampage, killing several people, with a collection of legally owned firearms. In the time
since then the number of crimes involving firearms as a whole has increased. The
number involving legally owned firearms has gone up by 0.1% as compared to a 5%
increase overall.

Which one of the following could be reliably concluded from the above information?

A Banning handguns has simply increased gun crime.

B The number of legally owned firearms has decreased.
C The number of crimes involving handguns has stayed the same.
D The law change in 1997 has not resulted in a reduction in gun crime.
E It has become easier to acquire illegal firearms.

8 Statement Young smokers' perceptions Parents' actual attitude to

of parents' attitudes to their their children smoking
smoking
Don't mind 56 % 13 %
Rather they didn't 22 % 15 %
Do not like it 19 % 63 %
Don't know that they smoke 3% 9%

Which one of the following conclusions is best supported by the data given above?

A Young people are likely to be more tolerant of smoking than their parents.
B Young people tend to underestimate their parents' disapproval of their
smoking.
C More than half of young people's parents are tolerant of smoking.
D Smoking in a young person can lead to a deterioration in relations with their
parents.
E Parents are unlikely to express strong disapproval of their children's habits.
9 The demand for blood donors is increasing all over the world. In Western countries, in
particular, demand has been rising so rapidly that shortages have begun to appear. In all
such countries, demand is growing much faster than rates of growth in populations aged
18-65 from whom donors are drawn. And, despite a massive research effort to find
alternatives, it remains true that in medicine there is no substitute for human blood.

Which one of the following conclusions can be drawn from the passage?

A As the demand for blood has increased, so has the supply fallen.
B The rate of growth of the blood-donor population has been slowing recently.
C The increase in the rate of demand for blood is mainly due to population
growth.
D If more blood donors could be found, there would be no need to find a
substitute for human blood.
E The problem of the increase in demand for blood shows no sign of
disappearing.

10 It is clear that the world is getting warmer. The only thing that could slow down this
process of global warming, and avert ecological disaster, would be an immediate switch
to green technologies. If global warming continues at the present rate, some species will
be unable to live in the warmer conditions. They will need to move to cooler places than
they now occupy, for example closer to the poles, or higher up mountains. Not all of these
species will be able to reach cooler climates, because of the long distances they would
have to travel. Some of those that could move would end up in overcrowded habitats,
which would make successful breeding impossible.

Which one of the following can be drawn as a conclusion from the above passage?

A Most species require cool habitats for successful breeding.

B Many species will be able to adapt to living in warmer climates.
C Endangered species will survive if we switch to green technologies.
D It is not possible to avert the ecological disaster caused by global warming.
E Unless we switch immediately to green technologies, some species will not
survive.
11 The differences between human beings are sometimes more striking than the similarities.
There is a minority of people who, driven by a competitive urge to be the first or the best,
undertake ambitious expeditions involving severe physical deprivations, high risk of
fatality, and extreme isolation. Compare these people to the majority who prefer an easy,
risk free life of comfort and we can see that one human being can be as different from
another in their behaviour as two different species of animal. Any attempt to form general
rules about human behaviour needs to bear this variation in mind.

Which one of the following best expresses the conclusion of the passage above?

A Members of the human race can be as different in their behaviour as two

separate species of animal.
B Humans who take risks in the interests of achieving unusual feats are
untypical.
C Variation in human behaviour makes it difficult to generalise.
D Differences between people can be more striking than similarities.
E Human beings are superior to all other animals.

12 Similar effects have similar causes. The problem is deciding when one set of effects
sufficiently resembles another to infer a similar cause. You say that the universe
resembles a man-made object like a house, so its cause must also be similar, an
intelligent designer, resembling human beings. But is the universe so like a house? It
seems to resemble an animal or vegetable just as closely, so why should its origin not lie
in reproduction or some vegetative process? The universe contains many classes of
effects and objects, all with their different causes. There seems to be no compelling
reason for concluding that the universe as a whole resembles one of these classes of
effects or objects more closely than another.

Which one of the following is a conclusion that can reliably be drawn from the above
reasoning?

A The universe bears no resemblance to a man-made object like a house.

B The inference that the universe and man-made objects have similar causes is
not justified.
C The world resembles a vegetable more closely than a house.
D The universe is not the result of intelligent design.
E The most likely origin of the universe is a reproductive process.
 13 The average life expectancy in working class areas of London was significantly higher
than in similar areas in other major cities in the first half of the nineteenth century. In
London during this time drinking tea had become a part of daily life amongst the poor.
The reason for this was a combination of availability and cost. Boats bringing tea to the
country docked in London and a certain amount was sold off directly to local markets. At
this time in the rest of the country tea was still regarded as a luxury, consumed only by
the better off.

Which one of the following conclusions is best supported by the passage above?

A The drinking of tea increases life expectancy.

B Everyone ought to include tea in their daily diet.
C There may be properties of tea which are beneficial to health.
D The growing popularity of tea led to a decrease in the consumption of more
harmful drinks, such as gin.
E For the poor tea was a substitute for food.

14 Many people who live near to mobile phone masts are worried that radiation from these
masts will damage their health. Mobile phones themselves have also been suspected of
emitting dangerous levels of radiation, and a report recommended that children should be
discouraged from making non-essential calls. Emission of radiation from the masts is
much lower than that from a mobile phone. A few seconds making a phone call is
comparable to 24 hours of exposure from a mast. Radiation from both these sources is
below the international guidelines as to what is a dangerous level, but no one can yet be
certain if these guidelines accurately reflect the level of risk.

Which one of the following can be drawn as a conclusion from the above passage?

A People who use mobile phones are putting their health at risk.
B The international guidelines underestimate the risk to health from low levels of
radiation.
C The health risk from living near a phone mast is lower than that from using a
mobile phone.
D People who live near mobile phone masts overestimate the risks to their
health from these masts.
E If extensive use of mobile phones is not harmful to health, radiation from a
mast is unlikely to be a risk.

1 B 2 D 3 A 4 B 5 A

6 D 7 D 8 B 9 E 10 E

11 C 12 B 13 C 14 E