ASSIGNMENT COVERSHEET

UTS: ENGINEERING & INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

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48362
SUBJECT NAME
DARMAWAN VICTOR 11338047
Hydraulics and Hydrology

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victor_darmawan1993@yahoo.com 0449570140

NAME OF TUTOR TUTORIAL GROUP DUE DATE

Associate Professor James Ball Friday 6pm 17th October 2014

ASSESSMENT ITEM NUMBER/ TITLE

ASSIGNMENT 4

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 UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY SYDNEY
FACULTY OF ENGINEERING

48362 - Hydrology and Hydraulics

ASSIGNMENT 4

The Powells Creek catchment which is located in the Inner Western Suburbs of Sydney drains
stormwater runoff from an urban area into Homebush Bay. A stream gauge has been operating
on this stormwater channel since 1958. The catchment area upstream of the gauging station is
2.4km.

The location of the Powells Creek gauging station is – Latitude: 33.862(0S), Longitude:
151.050(0E). Also, the Powells Creek catchment lies in Zone B and its elevation is less than
500m.

The annual series of stream flows is

Flow Flow Flow

Year Year Year
(m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s)
1958 15.98 1971 12.14 1984 21.33
1959 48.16 1972 37.97 1985 13.07
1960 10.75 1973 33.45 1986 20.20
1961 7.01 1974 28.91 1987 11.81
1962 19.99 1975 16.96 1988 23.10
1963 32.97 1976 14.94 1989 13.94
1964 25.30 1977 16.46 1990 23.30
1965 8.79 1978 15.07 1991 19.19
1966 12.56 1979 12.61 1992 17.05
1967 17.20 1980 12.74 1993 6.85
1968 5.33 1981 14.61 1994 13.32
1969 18.26 1982 19.31 1995 7.81
1970 17.44 1983 21.26 1996 7.63

a) Using these data, undertake a flood frequency analysis to estimate the flood flows associated
with events having ARIs (average recurrence intervals) of 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years.
b) Determine the 95% confidence limits for these flows.
c) Comment on the likely accuracy of these estimates.
d) Using the probabilistic rational method, estimate the peak flows for flood events having ARIs
of 1, 2, 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years for this catchment in its pre-development state.
e) Compare the pre- and post-development flood flows and provide comment.
 PART A AND B
Following assumptions are made to generate the tables on page 2 and 3:
1. Formatting and table column header positioning are as per the example found
in Lecture 6 notes on UTS Online
2. α has been adopted as 0.4 (Cunnane’s formulae) to find PP (m)
3. Values for KY and δ were found from Tables 2.3 and 2.4, respectively, from
Australian Rainfall and Runoff Volume 1
4. All values were calculated in Microsoft Excel to the accuracy of 1 decimal place
5. All plots were made using Microsoft Excel, formatted as per Lecture 6 notes

PART C
We can assume that these estimates are relatively accurate since the confidence limits are calculated
estimates from the recorded flows. Moreover, there is also a linear relationship between the recorded
flows and predicted confidence limits. The likely accuracy of these results can be confidently assumed
as accurate unless the rainfall and flood mechanisms change over time due to climate change.
Moreover, our results are quite accurate statistically, as the standard deviation of “X” is 0.21, which
is relatively large when base-lined against the mean of the sample of annual series. In addition,
according to Flood Frequency Curve on page 6, it can be seen that most of the plotted annual series lie
in between the confidence limits, with roughly 6 results (outliers) lying outside, or just bordering on the
confidence limits. Outliers usually occurs because of human errors and an event caused by different
phenomenon to the rest of a sample.

1
A) Analysis of Annual Flood Series and Plotting Positions

α 0.4 n 39

Year Q (m3/s) Rank (m) PP(m) X = Log10Q X2 X3

1958 15.98 21 0.53 1.20 1.45 1.74

1959 48.16 1 0.02 1.68 2.83 4.76
1960 10.75 33 0.83 1.03 1.06 1.10
1961 7.01 37 0.93 0.85 0.72 0.60
1962 19.99 12 0.30 1.30 1.69 2.20
1963 32.97 4 0.09 1.52 2.30 3.50
1964 25.30 6 0.14 1.40 1.97 2.76
1965 8.79 34 0.86 0.94 0.89 0.84
1966 12.56 30 0.76 1.10 1.21 1.33
1967 17.20 17 0.42 1.24 1.53 1.89
1968 5.33 39 0.98 0.73 0.53 0.38
1969 18.26 15 0.37 1.26 1.59 2.01
1970 17.44 16 0.40 1.24 1.54 1.91
1971 12.14 31 0.78 1.08 1.18 1.27
1972 37.97 2 0.04 1.58 2.49 3.94
1973 33.45 3 0.07 1.52 2.32 3.54
1974 28.91 5 0.12 1.46 2.13 3.12
1975 16.96 19 0.47 1.23 1.51 1.86
1976 14.94 23 0.58 1.17 1.38 1.62
1977 16.46 20 0.50 1.22 1.48 1.80
1978 15.07 22 0.55 1.18 1.39 1.64

2
 3
Year Q (m /s) Rank (m) PP(m) X = Log10Q X2 X3

1979 12.61 29 0.73 1.10 1.21 1.33

1980 12.74 28 0.70 1.11 1.22 1.35
1981 14.61 24 0.60 1.16 1.36 1.58
1982 19.31 13 0.32 1.29 1.65 2.13
1983 21.26 10 0.24 1.33 1.76 2.34
1984 21.33 9 0.22 1.33 1.77 2.35
1985 13.07 27 0.68 1.12 1.25 1.39
1986 20.20 11 0.27 1.31 1.70 2.22
1987 11.81 32 0.81 1.07 1.15 1.23
1988 23.10 8 0.19 1.36 1.86 2.54
1989 13.94 25 0.63 1.14 1.31 1.50
1990 23.30 7 0.17 1.37 1.87 2.56
1991 19.19 14 0.35 1.28 1.65 2.11
1992 17.05 18 0.45 1.23 1.52 1.87
1993 6.85 38 0.96 0.84 0.70 0.58
1994 13.32 26 0.65 1.12 1.26 1.42
1995 7.81 35 0.88 0.89 0.80 0.71
1996 7.63 36 0.91 0.88 0.78 0.69

SUM 46.87 58.01 73.72

M 1.20

S 0.21

G -0.07

3
 Flood Time Series - Powells Creek Catchment, NSW

60.00

50.00

40.00
Annual Maximum Flow (m /s)
3

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year

4
B) Calculation of Confidence Limits - Powell's Creek (1958 - 1996)

1 in Y (%) KY QY δ CL+ CL-

1.0 2.3 47.8 2.5 65.9 34.6

2.0 2.0 42.2 2.1 55.2 32.2

5.0 1.6 34.9 1.6 42.9 28.4

10.0 1.3 29.5 1.3 34.9 24.9

20.0 0.8 23.9 1.2 27.7 20.7

50.0 0.0 16.0 1.1 18.4 14.0

99.0 -2.4 5.0 2.8 7.2 3.6

5
 Flood Frequency Curve at Powells Creek Catchment, NSW
100.00
Flow (m /s)
3

10.00

1.00
90.00

80.00

70.00

60.00

50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
100.00

AEP%

6
Part D) A(km2) 2.4
tc(mins) 63.6
50
I12 15.8
2
I12 7.5

C10 = 1 (East of Connecting Line)

Rainfall Intensity
1 yr 2yr 5yr 10yr 20yr 50yr 100yr
I (mm/hr) 26 33 43 48 56 65 73

• Above Rainfall Intensities were calculated by AusIFD for a duration of 64 minutes

Peak Flow using the Probabilistic Rational Method

1 yr 2yr 5yr 10yr 20yr 50yr 100yr
FFY - Below 0.62 0.74 0.88 1.00 1.12 1.22 1.33
CY 0.62 0.74 0.88 1.00 1.12 1.22 1.33
3
Qy (m /s) 10.7 16.4 25.2 32.3 41.8 52.8 64.8

 Values for FFY have been obtained from Table 1.1 (Below 500m) in AR&R Volume 1 (1997)

 CY is found by multiplying C10 and FFY for each storm event

 QY is found using the probabilistic rational method, which states that QY=0.278CY DIY A where
QY is the design discharge for a Y year ARI in m3/s, k is unit conversion factor, CY is the Y year
runoff coefficient, DIY is the Y year ARI rainfall intensity for a duration of D in mm/hr and A is the
catchment area in km2

7
 Rainfall Intensity for Powells Creek, NSW
Average Recurrence Interval
Duration
1 Year 2 Year 5 Year 10 Year 20 Year 50 Year 100 Year
(mm/hr) (mm/hr) (mm/hr) (mm/hr) (mm/hr) (mm/hr) (mm/hr)
5.0 m 86 111 141 158 181 211 234
5.5 m 84 107 136 153 176 205 227
6.0 m 81 104 132 149 170 198 220
6.5 m 79 101 128 144 165 193 214
7.0 m 76 98 125 140 161 188 208
7.5 m 74 96 122 137 157 183 203
8.0 m 73 93 119 133 153 178 198
8.5 m 71 91 116 130 149 174 193
9.0 m 69 89 113 127 146 170 189
9.5 m 68 87 111 125 143 167 185
10 m 66 85 109 122 140 163 181
11 m 64 82 104 117 135 157 174
12 m 61 79 100 113 130 151 168
13 m 59 76 97 109 125 146 162
14 m 57 73 94 106 121 141 157
15 m 55 71 91 102 117 137 152
16 m 54 69 88 99 114 133 148
17 m 52 67 86 97 111 130 144
18 m 51 65 84 94 108 126 140
19 m 49.6 64 81 92 105 123 136
20 m 48.3 62 79 89 103 120 133
21 m 47.2 61 78 87 100 117 130
22 m 46.1 59 76 85 98 115 127
23 m 45.1 58 74 84 96 112 124
24 m 44.1 57 73 82 94 110 122
25 m 43.2 56 71 80 92 108 119
26 m 42.3 54 70 79 90 105 117
27 m 41.5 53 68 77 89 103 115
28 m 40.7 52 67 76 87 102 113
29 m 40.0 51 66 74 85 100 111
30 m 39.3 51 65 73 84 98 109
32 m 38.0 48.8 63 71 81 95 105
34 m 36.8 47.3 61 68 79 92 102
36 m 35.7 45.9 59 66 76 89 99
38 m 34.6 44.5 57 64 74 87 96
40 m 33.7 43.3 56 63 72 84 94
45 m 31.5 40.6 52 59 68 79 88
50 m 29.7 38.3 49.2 55 64 75 83
55 m 28.2 36.3 46.6 53 61 71 79
60 m 26.8 34.5 44.4 50 58 67 75
75 m 23.4 30.2 39.0 44.0 51 59 66
90 m 21.0 27.1 35.0 39.6 45.7 54 60
105 m 19.1 24.6 31.9 36.1 41.7 49.0 55
120 m 17.6 22.7 29.5 33.4 38.6 45.3 51
135 m 16.3 21.1 27.4 31.1 36.0 42.3 47.2
150 m 15.3 19.8 25.7 29.2 33.8 39.8 44.4
165 m 14.4 18.7 24.3 27.6 31.9 37.6 42.0
180 m 13.7 17.7 23.0 26.2 30.3 35.7 39.9
195 m 13.0 16.8 22.0 25.0 28.9 34.1 38.0
210 m 12.4 16.1 21.0 23.9 27.7 32.6 36.4
225 m 11.9 15.4 20.1 22.9 26.5 31.3 35.0
240 m 11.4 14.8 19.3 22.0 25.5 30.1 33.7
270 m 10.6 13.7 18.0 20.5 23.8 28.1 31.4
5h 9.93 12.9 16.9 19.3 22.4 26.4 29.6
6h 8.86 11.5 15.1 17.3 20.1 23.7 26.6
7h 8.05 10.5 13.8 15.7 18.3 21.7 24.3
8h 7.41 9.63 12.7 14.5 16.9 20.0 22.5
9h 6.89 8.96 11.8 13.5 15.8 18.7 21.0
10 h 6.45 8.39 11.1 12.7 14.8 17.6 19.7
11 h 6.08 7.91 10.5 12.0 14.0 16.6 18.6
12 h 5.76 7.50 9.94 11.4 13.3 15.8 17.7
14 h 5.26 6.84 9.07 10.4 12.1 14.4 16.2
16 h 4.85 6.32 8.37 9.60 11.2 13.3 14.9
18 h 4.52 5.89 7.80 8.94 10.4 12.4 13.9
20 h 4.24 5.52 7.32 8.38 9.77 11.6 13.0
22 h 4.01 5.22 6.90 7.91 9.22 10.9 12.3
24 h 3.80 4.95 6.55 7.50 8.74 10.4 11.6
30 h 3.31 4.31 5.70 6.53 7.61 9.03 10.1
36 h 2.95 3.84 5.08 5.82 6.78 8.04 9.02
42 h 2.67 3.48 4.60 5.27 6.13 7.27 8.15
48 h 2.45 3.19 4.21 4.82 5.61 6.65 7.46
54 h 2.26 2.94 3.89 4.45 5.18 6.14 6.88
60 h 2.10 2.73 3.61 4.13 4.81 5.70 6.39
66 h 1.97 2.56 3.37 3.86 4.49 5.33 5.97
72 h 1.85 2.40 3.17 3.62 4.22 5.00 5.60

The rainfall intensities shown above are calculated in accordance with Chapter 2,
8
Australian Rainfall and Runoff - 1987 Edition.
Part E)

1 yr 2yr 5yr 10yr 20yr 50yr 100yr

QY - P.R.M 10.7 16.4 25.2 32.3 41.8 52.8 64.8

QY - Log-Pearson III 5.0 16.0 23.9 29.5 34.9 42.2 47.8

QY - CL+ (From Part B) 7.2 18.4 27.7 34.9 42.9 55.2 65.9
3
Table 1 – QY (m /s) for Log-Pearson III Analysis and Probabilistic Rational Method

Values for QY calculated in part D (pre-development) by the Probabilistic Rational

Method (P.R.M) are slightly different (generally larger) to the values for QY calculated
with our Log- Pearson III Analysis in part A (post-development), as we can see in Table 1
above.

The discrepancy arises due to inaccuracies embedded into the rational method. The rational
method is useful only for undeveloped rural catchments. There are also some weak
assumptions in the P.R.M:
 Only rural catchments are considered, this method is not to be used for urban
catchments. Since we have to assume that our catchment is undeveloped for calculating
QY for part D, the catchment in this question is developed in reality, and hence renders
the P.R.M be inaccurate when trying to estimate QY for a developed area.
 The slope, shape, and drainage pattern of the catchment are considered by the time of
concentration
 All rainfall losses are a ratio of the rainfall intensity

Other problems with the rational method occur when estimating tc and C, and considering effects of
non-consistent catchment shape and slope

In terms of accuracy, all the peak flows (except for 1yr ARI) calculated by the P.R.M lie inside
the 95% confidence limits that were calculated in Part B. Thus, the results are not totally
accurate. However, they are not inaccurate enough to invalidate an engineer’s work since they
are also generally larger values, one could argue that they are more conservative.

9
References:

Ball, J., 2014, Hydrology Lecture Notes, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney

O’Loughlin, G., 1999, “Notes on Engineering Hydrology”, UTS Printing Services, Sydney

Pilgrim, D.H, 1998, “Australian Rainfall and Runoff”, 1998 edition, Institute of Engineers
Australia, Sydney