PROBABILITY

• Probability – refers to the study of

randomness and uncertainty of an
outcome.
– Quantify the chances, or likelihood, associated
with various outcomes of an event.
0  P ( A) 1
P ( )  0
P (S) 1
 FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES
• Classical Probability
• Additive Rule
• Mutually Exclusive Events
• Complementary Events
• Conditional Probability
• Multiplicative Rules
• Baye’s Rule (Theorem of Total Probability)
 Classical Probability
• If an experiment can result in any one ofN
different equally likely outcomes, and if
exactlyn of these outcomes correspond
A, then the probability of event
to event A
is
nA
P ( A) 
N
 Classical Probability
• A mixture of candies contains 6 mints, 4 toffees,
and 2 chocolates. If a person makes a random
selection of one of these candies, find the
probability of getting (a) a mint, (b) a toffee, and
(c) a chocolate.
6 1
P (m i n t )    0 .5 0  5 0 %
12 2
4 1
P ( toffee )  
12 3
2 1
P ( ch ocol a te )  
12 6
 Classical Probability
• If a letter is chosen at random from the English
Alphabet, find the probability that the letter (a) is
a vowel, (b) is listed somewhere ahead of letter j ,
g.
(c) is listed somewhere after the letter
5
P ( vow el ) 
26
9
P ( a h ea dofj ) 
26
19
P ( a fter g ) 
26
 Additive Rule
• We shall use the symbol P(A U B) to
denote the probability of occurrence of
A or B.
events
• IfA andB are any two events, then

P(A  B )  P ( A)  P (B )  P ( A  B )
 Additive Rule
• The probability that Paula passes Mathematics
is 2/3, and the probability that she passes
English is 4/9. If the probability of passing both
subjects is ¼, what is the probability that Paula
will pass in either subjects?
P (M )  2 /3
P(E )  4 /9
P (M  E ) 1 / 4
P (M  E )  P (M )  P (E )  P (M  E )
2 4 1 31
P (M E)      0 .8 6 1 1
3 9 4 36
 Additive Rule
• If a card is drawn from an ordinary deck of
playing cards, find the probability of getting an
ace or a spade.
P ( A)  4 / 52
P(B)  13 / 52
P(A  B )  1 / 52
P(A  B )  P ( A)  P (B )  P ( A  B )
4 13 1 16
P(A B)      0 .3 0 7 7
52 52 52 52
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
• IfA andB are mutually exclusive events

P(A  B )  P ( A)  P (B )
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
• If the probabilities are 0.09, 0.15, 0.21, and 0.23,
respectively that a person purchasing a new
automobile will choose the color green, white,
red or blue, what is the probability that a given
buyer will purchase a new automobile that
comes in one of these colors?

P (G  W  R  B )  0 .0 9  0 .1 5  0 .2 1  0 .2 3  0 .6 8
MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE EVENTS
• If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic
will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 or more cars on any
given workday are 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10,
and 0.07, respectively, what is the probability
that he will service at least 5 cars on his next day
at work?
P ( x  5)  0 .2 8  0 .2 4  0 .1 0  0 .0 7  0 .6 9
 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
• If A and A’ are complementary events, then

P ( A)  P ( A ')  1
 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS
• If the probabilities that an automobile mechanic
will service 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 or more cars on any
given workday are 0.12, 0.19, 0.28, 0.24, 0.10,
and 0.07, respectively, what is the probability
that he will service at least 5 cars on his next day
at work?

P(x  5)  1  P ( x  5)  1   P (3)  P ( 4 ) 
P(x  5)  1  ( 0 .1 2  0 .1 9 )  0 .6 9
 CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY
• The probability of an eventB occurring when it is
known that some eventA has occurred is called
the conditional probability. The symbol is usually
read ‘the probability that B occurs given that A
occurs’ or simply ‘the probabilityBof , given
A .’
P(A B)
P (B A) 
P ( A)
P(B  A)
P(A B) 
P(B)
• The probability that a regularly scheduled flight departs
on time is 0.83; the probability that it arrives on time is
0.82; and the probability that it departs and arrives on
time is 0.78. Find the probability that a plane
a. arrives on time given that it departed on time
b. departed on time given that it has arrived on time.

P(A D) 0 .7 8
P(A D )    0 .9 3 9 8
P(D ) 0 .8 3
P(B  A) 0 .7 8
P(A B)    0 .9 5 1 2
P(B) 0 .8 2
• The probability that an automobile being filled
with gasoline also needs an oil change is 0.25;
the probability that it needs a new oil filter is
0.40; and the probability that both the oil and the
filter need changing is 0.14. If the oil has to be
changed, what is the probability that a new oil
filter is needed?
0 .1 4
P(F C )   0 .5 6
0 .2 5