Introduction to probability (4)

Theorems:
P( A B ) P( A) P( B)
P( A ) 1 P ( A)
P( A) P( A ) P( S ) 1
P( A B) P ( A) P( B) P( A B)

Introduction to probability (4)

: Two dice are tossed; find the
probability of getting an even number
on the first die or a total number of 8.
Solution: S (6 2 ) 36
A: Getting an even number on the first
die.
B: The sum of the options obtained on
the two dice 8.
Introduction to probability (4)
A : {(2,4,6) (1,2,3,4,5,6)} n( A) 3 6 18

B : {( 2,6), (6,2), (3,5), (5,3), (4,4)} n( B ) 5

(A B) : {( 2,6), (6,2), (4,4)} n( A B) 3

18 5 3 20
P( A B) P ( A) P( B) P( A B)
36 36 36 36

Introduction to probability (4)

: If the probability that an
automobile machine will serve 3, 4, 5, 6,
7 or 8 or more cars on any given
workday are respectively: 0.12, 0.19,
0.28, 0.24, 0.10 and 0.07. What is the
probability that it will be serve at least 5
cars on next day at work.
Solution: Let be the event that at
least 5 cars are served
Introduction to probability (4)
P( E ) 1 P( E ) where E is the event that fewer
than 5 cars are served since :

P( E ) P(3) P( 4) 0.12 0.19 0.31

P (E ) 1 0.31 0.69

Conditional Probability
The probability of an event occurring
when it is known that some event has
occurred is called a conditional
probability and is denoted by P ( B | A)
and it can pronounced as The
probability of given .
 Conditional Probability
is an event of getting a
perfect square when a die is tossed the
die is constructed so that the even
numbers are twice as likely to occur as
the odd numbers. Find the probability
that occurs relative to the space
and is the number greater 3.

Conditional Probability
Solution:
A : {4,5,6} {2w,1w,2w} 5w
B : {4} 2w

2
P ( B | A)
5
 Conditional Probability
P( A B)
Definition: P( B | A)
P( A)
, P ( A) 0

By the above definition we can solve the above

question by another way as:
S : {1,2,3,4,5,6} 9w
A : {4,5,6} {2w,1w,2w} 5w 5
P ( A)
B : {4} 2w 9
2
A B {4} 2w P( A B)
9
2
P( A B) 9 2 9 2
P ( B | A)
P ( A) 5 9 5 5
9

Conditional Probability

Employed Unemployed Total

Male 460 40 500
Female 140 260 400
Total 600 300 900

If we select one person from above table and the

event is:
: a man is chosen.
: the once chosen is employed
 Conditional Probability
Solution: We can solve the above
problem by two methods as:
1. Directly from table as:

460 23
P( M | E )
600 30

Conditional Probability
number( E M)
2. Or P( M | E )
number( E M ) nS P( E M )
number( E ) n( E ) P( E )
n( S )
460 23
P( E M)
900 45
600 2
P (E )
900 3
23
45 23 3 69 23
P(M | E )
2 45 2 90 30
3
 Conditional Probability
The listed table is the number
of contaminated wafer:
No. Cont. Center Edge Total
0 0.3 0.1 0.4
1 0.15 0.05 0.2
2 0.1 0.05 0.15
3 0.06 0.04 0.1
4 0.04 0.01 0.05
5 and more 0.07 0.03 0.1
Total 0.72 0.28 1

Conditional Probability
Assume that one wafer is selected at
random from this set let denotes the
event that a wafer contains four or
more particles and let denotes the
event that a wafer is from a center.
Find: P ( A)
P(A) (0.04 0.01 0.07 0.03) 0.15
 Conditional Probability
P (B )
(03 0.15 0.1 0.06 0.04 0.07) 0.72
P(B ) 0.72
1 1

P( A B)
P( A B) 0.04 0.07 0.11
P( A | B)
P( A B) 0.11
P( A | B)
P( B) 0.72

Conditional Probability
P ( B | A)
P( A B) 0.11
P ( B | A)
P( A) 0.15

P( A B)
P( A B) P( A) P( B) P( A B)
0.15 0.72 0.11 0.76