Has the Philippines undergone the Demographic Transition? Why or Why Not?

Over the course of human history, the economic history of countries experience important
transitions. This transition occurs when countries move from a state of low prosperity, high child
mortality and high fertility to a state of high prosperity, low child mortality and low fertility, a
process that researchers call the demographic transition. We study the size, density, and
distribution of the human population because of the demography. This area of study takes into
account birth rates, death rates, age distribution, and any other factors that influence the size and
growth of a population. There were many researchers who have been interested in the
characteristics of the human population and the future of population growth after analyzing how

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the population of western countries changes overtime. They discovered a pattern that indicates

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that there is a connection between population growth and the economic development of a

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country. According to their observation, countries with high standards of living has a population
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that grew at a slow rate while in countries with low standards of living, their population grew
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more rapidly.
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This begun in the late 1700s, people had an understanding of the correlation between
birth and death rates, which had both been relatively equal regardless of location. Then, death
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rates started to decline. Because of the new technologies discovered in the area of agriculture and
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production, and advancements in health and sanitation, a greater number of people lived through
their adolescent years, increasing the average life expectancy and creating a new trajectory for
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population growth. This sudden change created a shift in their understanding between the
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relationship of birth and death rates. Up until now, population demographics have continued to
evolve as a result of the relationship between the birth and death rates within a country.
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 The observation and documentation of this global phenomenon has produced a model,
the Demographic Transition Model. It is a model seeks to explain the transformation of the
movement of high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a
pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. According to Frank Notestein's demographic
transition model, there are four stages. In the first stage, birth rates as well as death rates remains
high, and the growth of population is slowly. The second stage is when the death rates begin to
fall while the birth rates remain high and the population starts to grow rapidly. Up to the third
stage, birth rates start to decline and there is a decrease in population as well. In fourth stage,
both birth and death rates are low and population growth tends to decline. It works on the
premise that birth and death rates are connected and correlate with stages of industrial
development, which helps explain and make sense of changes in population demographics. As

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the birth and death rates change in relation to each other, their produced impact greatly affects a

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country’s total population. Within the model, a country will progress over time as certain social

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and economic forces act upon the birth and death rates. In developed countries, this transition
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began in the eighteenth century and continues today. Less developed countries began the
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transition later and are still in the midst of earlier stages of the model.
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Developing country like the Philippines is believed to have a bright future ahead.
Philippines has undergone demographic transition. The Philippines’ population is gradually
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changing from one that has high fertility and high mortality rates to one of low fertility and low
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mortality which will soon result to a demographic profile of the country that will shift from
having a lot of dependents to having more workers and fewer dependents. Economists can see
that the majority of the population of the Philippines will become consumers, making possible
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the attraction of consumption-oriented firms into the country which are important to maintaining
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economic growth. They also predicted that this country can actually be the 16 th largest economy
by the year 2050 because of its demographic advantages.
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But still, what we look at is what reality is serving us today. Demographic transition
classifies all societies into one of three stages. The first stage is called pre-modern, there is a high

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 birth and high death rate. Birth rate is high due to illiteracy, traditional beliefs of marrying at an
early age, and also children became more of an asset than a liability when it comes to agricultural
economy because there is no pressure of educating them, they can also start working at an early
age and add to the family income and it also serves as a traditional source of security in the old
age of parents. In addition, high death rates are also high because people are poor which is why
they can’t afford having proper meals, there living conditions are miserable, and there are no
effective medical facilities to cure all the diseases and epidemics during the time. Asia is home to
almost 60% of the world's population. It has gone from large families and short life spans into
the leader of modernization and rapid demographic change in the developing world with very
low fertility and mortality rates. Philippines entered this stage in the 1960s wherein the
population of the country started to blow up.

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The Philippine Islands had been under Spain since the 1500s. As the outcome of the
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Spanish-American War, the United States achieved this colony, and the islands were immediately
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plunged into the Philippine-American War as the First Philippine Republic fought,
unsuccessfully, to rid of a new colonial power. When the Pacific War opened in Dec 1941,
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MacArthur and the Filipino and American forces under his command were caught unready, air
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forces destroyed on the ground and supply warehouses left less-than-full. The captured
Americans and Filipinos were marched from Bataan to Luzon proper with little food, water, or
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rest; coupled with rampant acts of violence, between 7,000 and 10,000 died on what was to be
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named the Bataan Death March. The American reconquest of the Philippine Islands began in late
1944, and the opening stages of the campaign saw the Leyte Gulf battles, which were among the
largest naval engagements in the latter half of the Pacific War. The Japanese inflicted serious
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casualties on the Americans, about 10,000 killed and 36,000 wounded. Over the course of the
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WW2, from the 18 million people living in the Philippines, there are over almost a million
casualties 90% of them are civilians
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The second stage is characterized by a sharp drop in deaths while birth rates remain high.
Population grows rapidly. Most countries in Asia are in this stage. The second stage namely the

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 Early Expanding Stage which is characterized by rapidly falling death rate and high birth rate has
been experienced by the Philippines like most part of Asia in the 1960s. At this point of time,
death rate has decreased due to better gains in education, public health measures, and food
production but the birth rate is still high resulting to very high rate of growth of population. As a
country develops further, the character of the economy changes from an agrarian to industrialized
one so the third stage — sharply falling birth rate and low death rate occurs. It is characterized
by low or constant death rate and decrease in birth rate because as the economy becomes more
industrialized and the country urbanized, the economic role of the women outside the home
increases as they are given more opportunities. Also, family planning is now present which
enables people to utilize birth controls and there are also those people who want to have smaller
families in order to maintain a better or high standard of living and to provide higher education

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for their children. The fourth and last stage is characterized by low birth rate and low death rate

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giving a low rate of growth of population. As the country becomes highly developed there is no

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further possibility of fall in birth rate and death rate.
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The third stage occurs when economic and social gains combine with low child mortality
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rates to reduce the desire for large families. Birth rates slow to again achieve equilibrium with
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mortality rates, but at much lower levels. The Philippines is currently at the third stage.
According to an article by the Manila Times, "The Philippines is not yet reaping the benefits of
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having a young population because of persistently high fertility rates in the country." Although
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many developments have been made and the country experiencing industrialization, up until
now, the country is still part of the third-world and with this comes the fact that the country lacks
proper briefing, support and assistance for its people. A clear example of this is the prohibition of
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sexual education and not giving proper attention to the Responsible Parenthood and
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Reproductive Health Law which can also be a way for us to advance to the demographic
transition if and only if it is to be properly implemented. In addition, the fertility rate of the
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Philippines is at the high end for Asia (after Afghanistan and East Timor) and close to 3.0, in
contrast to a ratio of 2.1 considered the replacement rate for a stable population, Thomas (2017).
One thing that causes this is the high rate of teen pregnancies in which one of three Filipino
youth has engaged in early sex and 78% of their first sexual engagement was unprotected against

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 the risk of pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections. So far, the country failed to achieve a
similar demographic transition as most of its Southeast and East Asian neighbors have. It takes a
lot of time to advance to every stage so the challenge now for the Philippines is to enter the last
stage of the demographic transition.

The urgent question today is what happens if and when countries fail to complete the
demographic transition to the third stage and remain locked, as what the Philippines is now, still
in the second stage. With high birth rates and low living standards, Philippines is experiencing
slow demographic transition. The citizens of the Philippines must start considering the factors
that the 21st century will bring to them. Filipinos must be prepared for the shortages of resources,

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and a population hungry, crowded, and in need of stability and health. Because instead of helping

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their way up to the transition, the Philippines might remain having high birth rates and low living

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standards, a demographic trap.
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REFERENCE

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Grover, D. (2014, October 13). What is the Demographic Transition Model? Retrieved from
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Madigan, F. (n.d.). Transition from the demographic transition: perspective from the Philippines.
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Rosenberg, M. (2018, January 17). Demographic Transition. Retrieved from Thought Co.:
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https://www.thoughtco.com/demographic-transition-geography-1434497
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Shyam Ranganathan, R. B. (n.d.). The Demographic Transition and Economic Growth:

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Times, T. M. (2016, July 08). PH to miss demographic 'sweet spot' – study. Retrieved from
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