Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2-Nov-98 9116.55
20%
$5.00 1-Dec-98 9181.43
4-Jan-99 9358.83 10%
f(x) = 1.18 x + 0.01
1-Feb-99 9306.58
$4.00 1-Mar-99 9786.16 0%
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%
1-Apr-99 10789.04
-10%
3-May-99 10559.74
$3.00
1-Jun-99 10970.80 -20%
1-Jul-99 10655.15
2-Aug-99 10829.28 -30%
$2.00
1-Sep-99 10336.95
-40%
1-Oct-99 10729.86
$1.00 C
30%
1-Nov-99 10877.81
1-Dec-99 11497.12
3-Jan-00 10940.53 20%
$0.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 1-Feb-00 10128.31
f(x) = 1.42 x + 0.01
1 1 1 1 1
1-Mar-00 10921.92 10%
-30%
-40%
1-Feb-01 10495.28
1-Mar-01 9878.78
2-Apr-01 10734.97
1-May-01 10911.94
1-Jun-01 10502.40
2-Jul-01 10522.81
1-Aug-01 9949.75
4-Sep-01 8847.56
1-Oct-01 9075.14
1-Nov-01 9851.56
3-Dec-01 10021.57
2-Jan-02 9920.00
1-Feb-02 10106.13
1-Mar-02 10403.94
1-Apr-02 9946.22
1-May-02 9925.25
3-Jun-02 9243.26
1-Jul-02 8736.59
1-Aug-02 8663.50
3-Sep-02 7591.93
1-Oct-02 8397.03
1-Nov-02 8896.09
2-Dec-02 8341.63
2-Jan-03 8053.81
3-Feb-03 7891.08
3-Mar-03 7992.13
1-Apr-03 8480.09
1-May-03 8850.26
2-Jun-03 8985.44
1-Jul-03 9233.80
1-Aug-03 9415.82
2-Sep-03 9275.06
1-Oct-03 9801.12
3-Nov-03 9782.46
1-Dec-03 10453.92
2-Jan-04 10488.07
2-Feb-04 10583.92
1-Mar-04 10357.70
1-Apr-04 10225.57
3-May-04 10188.45
1-Jun-04 10435.48
1-Jul-04 10139.71
2-Aug-04 10173.92
1-Sep-04 10080.27
1-Oct-04 10027.47
1-Nov-04 10428.02
1-Dec-04 10783.01
3-Jan-05 10489.94
1-Feb-05 10766.23
1-Mar-05 10503.76
1-Apr-05 10192.51
2-May-05 10467.48
1-Jun-05 10274.97
1-Jul-05 10640.91
1-Aug-05 10481.60
1-Sep-05 10568.70
3-Oct-05 10440.07
1-Nov-05 10805.87
1-Dec-05 10717.50
3-Jan-06 10864.86
1-Feb-06 10993.41
1-Mar-06 11109.32
3-Apr-06 11367.14
1-May-06 11168.31
1-Jun-06 11150.22
3-Jul-06 11185.68
1-Aug-06 11381.15
1-Sep-06 11679.07
2-Oct-06 12080.73
1-Nov-06 12221.93
1-Dec-06 12463.15
3-Jan-07 12621.69
1-Feb-07 12268.63
1-Mar-07 12354.35
2-Apr-07 13062.91
1-May-07 13241.38
Stock Prices: IBM Stock Returns Randomized Returns
###
40%
IBM MSFT C IBM ^DJI IBM MSFT C ^DJI IBM
40.19 13.34 13.64 ###
30%
41.93 13.59 15.64 ### 4.7% 4.3% 1.9% 14.7% ### 0.7% 11.7%
49.13 15.21 17.87 ### 7.2% 17.2% 11.9% 14.3% ### 0.7% 11.7%
20%
47.18 14.22 15.78 ### -7.3% -4.0% -6.5% -11.7% ### -0.4% 0.7%
49.34 14.23 16.97 ### 4.2% 4.6% 0.1% 7.5% ### 1.6% -0.8%
f(x) = 1.31 x + 0.00
10%
45.85 13.98 17.43 ### -6.3% -7.1% -1.8% 2.7% ### 5.7% 8.4%
IBM 51.06 15.22 19.00 ### 5.1% 11.4% 8.9% 9.0% ### -5.9% -3.7%
0%
48.79 13.90 20.12 ### 1.1% -4.4% -8.7% 5.9% ### -1.0% -10.8%
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
46.05 16.05 18.51 ### 0.0% -5.6% 15.5% -8.0% ### 3.6% -9.1%
-10%
48.80 18.23 20.83 ### 8.1% 6.0% 13.6% 12.5% ### -4.4% -19.5%
48.54 19.26 22.46 ### 3.0% -0.5% 5.7% 7.8% ### -0.8% 15.4%
-20%
54.14 19.39 22.95 ### 3.0% 11.5% 0.7% 2.2% ### -0.2% -3.8%
55.01 18.25 22.98 ### -1.8% 1.6% -5.9% 0.1% ### 2.6% -0.7%
-30%
53.75 23.32 22.74 ### 0.6% -2.3% 27.8% -1.0% ### -5.1% -5.0%
50%
62.03 23.65 25.28
MSFT
### -0.8% 15.4% 40% 1.4% 11.2% ### 1.1% -4.4%
52.81 20.64 16.68 ### -15.1% -14.9% -12.7% -34.0% ### -2.9% -2.8%
40%
60.26 23.68 14.09 ### 4.0% 14.1% 30% 14.7% -15.5% ### 0.3% 0.8%
69.64
30% 22.78 17.74 ### 9.6% 15.6% -3.8% 25.9% ### -15.1% -14.9%
20%
77.55 26.25 18.96 ### 6.1% 11.4% 15.2% 6.9% ### -6.2% -10.8%
20%
86.59 29.84 18.75 ### 0.7%
f(x) = 1.2711.7%
x + 0.00
10%
13.7% -1.1% ### 2.9% 6.0%
86.06
10%
37.65 21.23 ### 1.9% -0.6% 26.2% 13.2% ### 1.6% -0.8%
f(x) = 1.18 x + 0.01
79.83 32.30 22.25 ### -0.6% -7.2%0% -14.2% 4.8% ### 3.8% -18.8%
83.36
0% 38.56 24.19 -20%
### 5.2%
-15% -10% 4.4%
-5% 19.4% 5%
0% 8.7%
10% ###
15% -0.8% 15.4%
5% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
98.38 34.99 28.43 ### 10.2% 18.0% -10% -9.3% 17.5% ### 2.8% -1.5%
-10%
109.23 34.72 25.16 ### -2.1% 11.0% -0.8% -11.5% ### 0.3% -2.5%
121.70
-20% 38.81 27.05 ### 3.9% 11.4% -20% 11.8% 7.5% ### 0.3% 0.8%
118.35 36.92 25.45 ### -2.9% -2.8% -4.9% -5.9% ### -2.9% -2.8%
-30% -30%
117.40 39.83 25.39 ### 1.6% -0.8% 7.9% -0.2% ### -0.4% 0.7%
114.05 38.97 25.14 ### -4.5% -2.9% -2.2% -1.0% ### -7.4% -8.4%
-40% -40%
92.60 39.83 31.08 ### 3.8% -18.8% 2.2% 23.6% ### 8.1% 6.0%
30% C 30%
97.27 39.18 30.86 ### 1.4% 5.0% -1.6% -0.7% ### 4.0% 5.2%
101.81 50.24 31.90 ### 5.7% 4.7% 28.2% 3.4% ### 8.6% 7.1%
20%
105.94 42.11 32.65 -4.8% 4.1% 20% -16.2% 2.4% ### 0.0% -5.6%
###
97.08
f(x) = 1.42 x + 0.01 38.45 29.73 ### -7.4% -8.4% -8.7% -8.9% ### 9.6% 15.6%
10% f(x) = 1.24 x + 0.01
10%
111.83 45.72 34.40 ### 7.8% 15.2% 18.9% 15.7% ### 3.4% 12.7%
105.34 30.01 33.98 ### -1.7% -5.8% -34.4% -1.2% ### 1.7% 5.0%
0%
101.51 26.92 35.81 -2.0% -3.6% 0% -10.3% 5.4% ### 5.9% 10.3%
###
5% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%
103.63 34.42 34.70 ### -0.7% 2.1% 27.9% -3.1% ### 4.0% 14.1%
-10%
106.18 30.04 40.60 0.7% 2.5% -10% -12.7% 17.0% ### -0.9% 1.2%
###
125.02 30.04 44.95 ### 6.6% 17.7% 0.0% 10.7% ### -4.5% -2.9%
-20%
106.65 25.95 41.62 ### -5.0% -14.7% -20% -13.6% -7.4% ### 0.9% -2.6%
93.28 29.63 40.52 ### 3.0% -12.5% 14.2% -2.6% ### 5.7% 1.3%
88.65
-30% 24.69 38.45 ### -5.1% -5.0% -30% -16.7% -5.1% ### 1.4% 5.0%
80.60 18.67 39.42 ### 3.6% -9.1% -24.4% 2.5% ### 6.1% 11.4%
106.20
-40% 26.27 43.21 ### 0.9% 31.8% -40% 40.7% 9.6% ### 4.7% 4.3%
-20% -20%
-30% -30%
-40% -40%
94.83 25.39 38.06 ### -3.6% -10.7% -3.3% -11.9% ### 8.1% 6.0%
91.30 23.53 34.81 ### -5.9% -3.7% -7.3% -8.5% ### 10.6% 35.4%
109.30 29.15 38.04 ### 8.7% 19.7% 23.9% 9.3% ### -2.1% -4.8%
106.26 29.77 39.77 ### 1.6% -2.8% 2.1% 4.5% ### -0.8% 7.3%
107.87 31.41 41.01 ### -3.8% 1.5% 5.5% 3.1% ### 3.4% 12.7%
99.99 28.48 38.96 ### 0.2% -7.3% -9.3% -5.0% ### 2.6% -0.7%
95.12 24.55 35.65 ### -5.4% -4.9% -13.8% -8.5% ### -12.4% -22.6%
87.29 22.02 31.53 ### -11.1% -8.2% -10.3% -11.6% ### 2.4% -0.5%
102.85 25.02 35.44 ### 2.6% 17.8% 13.6% 12.4% ### -2.0% -3.6%
110.14 27.63 37.42 ### 8.6% 7.1% 10.4% 5.6% ### -4.8% 4.1%
115.26 28.51 39.44 ### 1.7% 4.6% 3.2% 5.4% ### 1.4% -1.1%
102.80 27.41 37.16 ### -1.0% -10.8% -3.9% -5.8% ### 1.3% 0.6%
93.62 25.10 35.47 ### 1.9% -8.9% -8.4% -4.5% ### 1.4% -1.1%
99.23 25.95 38.82 ### 2.9% 6.0% 3.4% 9.4% ### 4.0% 5.2%
79.91 22.49 33.94 ### -4.4% -19.5% -13.3% -12.6% ### 1.2% -0.1%
76.91 21.91 33.99 ### -0.2% -3.8% -2.6% 0.1% ### 8.1% 6.0%
68.83 23.54 30.50 ### -6.9% -10.5% 7.4% -10.3% ### 2.8% -1.5%
67.30 20.65 26.40 ### -5.5% -2.2% -12.3% -13.4% ### -2.7% -5.2%
72.22 21.12 27.79 ### -0.8% 7.3% 2.3% 5.3% ### 5.1% 11.4%
55.87 18.82 25.16 ### -12.4% -22.6% -10.9% -9.5% ### -2.0% -0.1%
75.63 23.01 31.51 ### 10.6% 35.4% 22.3% 25.2% ### 2.7% -0.8%
83.43 24.82 33.15 ### 5.9% 10.3% 7.9% 5.2% ### 0.7% 1.4%
74.39 22.25 30.01 ### -6.2% -10.8% -10.4% -9.5% ### -3.0% -16.4%
75.06 20.42 29.46 ### -3.5% 0.9% -8.2% -1.8% ### -5.9% -3.7%
74.97 20.46 28.59 ### -2.0% -0.1% 0.2% -3.0% ### -3.5% 0.9%
75.43 20.90 29.54 ### 1.3% 0.6% 2.2% 3.3% ### -2.8% -1.2%
81.65 22.08 33.66 ### 6.1% 8.2% 5.6% 13.9% ### -0.8% 7.3%
84.82 21.25 35.36 ### 4.4% 3.9% -3.8% 5.1% ### 2.8% -1.5%
79.49 22.14 36.89 ### 1.5% -6.3% 4.2% 4.3% ### -6.3% -7.1%
78.28 22.80 38.92 ### 2.8% -1.5% 3.0% 5.5% ### 2.0% 5.7%
79.17 22.90 37.66 ### 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% -3.2% ### -12.4% -22.6%
85.27 24.00 39.53 ### -1.5% 7.7% 4.8% 5.0% ### 0.0% -5.6%
86.38 22.69 41.48 ### 5.7% 1.3% -5.5% 4.9% ### -1.8% 1.6%
87.57 22.32 41.16 ### -0.2% 1.4% -1.6% -0.8% ### -2.7% -5.2%
89.64 23.76 42.48 ### 6.9% 2.4% 6.5% 3.2% ### 1.7% 5.0%
95.97 24.01 43.66 ### 0.3% 7.1% 1.1% 2.8% ### 2.0% 1.1%
93.48 23.03 44.34 ### 0.9% -2.6% -4.1% 1.6% ### -5.1% -5.0%
88.97 21.64 45.61 ### -2.1% -4.8% -6.0% 2.9% ### -5.9% -3.7%
85.41 22.69 42.78 ### -1.3% -4.0% 4.9% -6.2% ### 5.9% 10.3%
85.99 22.77 41.31 ### -0.4% 0.7% 0.4% -3.4% ### -0.8% 7.3%
85.57 24.80 41.37 ### 2.4% -0.5% 8.9% 0.1% ### 1.4% 0.6%
84.52 24.73 39.58 ### -2.8% -1.2% -0.3% -4.3% ### 5.2% 4.4%
82.38 23.77 41.82 ### 0.3% -2.5% -3.9% 5.7% ### 0.7% 11.7%
83.40 24.08 39.61 ### -0.9% 1.2% 1.3% -5.3% ### 8.1% 6.0%
87.30 24.35 40.20 ### -0.5% 4.7% 1.1% 1.5% ### 1.1% 2.8%
91.85 26.02 40.54 ### 4.0% 5.2% 6.9% 0.8% ### 6.6% 17.7%
96.08 25.93 43.65 ### 3.4% 4.6% -0.3% 7.7% ### 1.9% -0.6%
91.05 25.50 44.44 ### -2.7% -5.2% -1.7% 1.8% ### 6.1% 8.2%
90.40 24.49 43.62 ### 2.6% -0.7% -4.0% -1.8% ### 4.0% 14.1%
89.23 23.53 41.08 ### -2.4% -1.3% -3.9% -5.8% ### 1.2% -0.1%
74.58 24.63 43.33 ### -3.0% -16.4% 4.7% 5.5% ### 1.6% -2.8%
73.97 25.20 43.47 ### 2.7% -0.8% 2.3% 0.3% ### 3.9% 11.4%
72.65 24.26 42.66 ### -1.8% -1.8% -3.7% -1.9% ### 1.2% -1.1%
81.71 25.01 40.54 ### 3.6% 12.5% 3.1% -5.0% ### 0.7% 2.5%
79.12 26.82 40.79 ### -1.5% -3.2% 7.2% 0.6% ### 6.1% 8.2%
78.73 25.20 42.42 ### 0.8% -0.5% -6.0% 4.0% ### 0.0% -5.6%
80.36 25.17 42.67 ### -1.2% 2.1% -0.1% 0.6% ### -2.0% -3.6%
87.46 27.19 45.69 ### 3.5% 8.8% 8.0% 7.1% ### 8.6% 7.1%
80.87 25.69 45.67 ### -0.8% -7.5% -5.5% 0.0% ### -0.7% 2.1%
79.98 27.65 43.84 ### 1.4% -1.1% 7.6% -4.0% ### 5.1% 11.4%
79.14 26.48 44.10 ### 1.2% -1.1% -4.2% 0.6% ### -1.7% -5.8%
81.34 26.82 44.92 ### 1.1% 2.8% 1.3% 1.9% ### -1.2% 2.1%
81.21 23.80 48.00 ### 2.3% -0.2% -11.3% 6.9% ### 1.1% -4.4%
79.09 22.41 47.38 ### -1.7% -2.6% -5.8% -1.3% ### -6.3% -7.1%
76.04 23.06 46.37 ### -0.2% -3.9% 2.9% -2.1% ### 1.4% 0.6%
76.62 23.81 46.43 ### 0.3% 0.8% 3.3% 0.1% ### 0.7% 2.5%
80.47 25.52 47.91 ### 1.7% 5.0% 7.2% 3.2% ### 2.6% 17.8%
81.43 27.16 48.22 ### 2.6% 1.2% 6.4% 0.6% ### 2.7% -0.8%
91.75 28.51 48.69 ### 3.4% 12.7% 5.0% 1.0% ### 2.3% -0.2%
91.64 29.26 48.62 ### 1.2% -0.1% 2.6% -0.1% ### 2.7% -0.8%
96.86 29.76 54.61 ### 2.0% 5.7% 1.7% 12.3% ### 2.4% -0.5%
98.85 30.75 54.05 ### 1.3% 2.1% 3.3% -1.0% ### 1.1% -4.4%
92.94 28.17 49.87 ### -2.8% -6.0% -8.4% -7.7% ### -5.5% -2.2%
94.26 27.87 50.83 ### 0.7% 1.4% -1.1% 1.9% ### -2.0% -3.6%
102.21 29.94 53.09 ### 5.7% 8.4% 7.4% 4.4% ### -2.7% -5.2%
102.80 30.97 53.95 ### 1.4% 0.6% 3.4% 1.6% ### 6.1% 11.4%
### ###
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### ###
### ###
### ###
### ###
zed Returns Randomized Growth Portfolio Allocations
MSFT C ^DJI IBM MSFT C Err:502
$1.00 $1.00 $1.00 $1.00 $1.00
13.7% -1.1% $1.01 $1.12 $1.14 $0.99 $1.05
13.7% -1.1% $1.01 $1.25 $1.29 $0.98 $1.11
0.4% -3.4% $1.01 $1.26 $1.30 $0.94 $1.11
7.9% -0.2% $1.03 $1.25 $1.40 $0.94 $1.13
7.4% 4.4% $1.09 $1.35 $1.50 $0.98 $1.20 Minimum Beta =
-7.3% -8.5% $1.02 $1.30 $1.39 $0.90 $1.13
-3.9% -5.8% $1.01 $1.16 $1.34 $0.85 $1.09 Percentage of 100 iterations that had B
-24.4% 2.5% $1.05 $1.05 $1.01 $0.87 $1.04 IBM 92.0%
-13.3% -12.6% $1.00 $0.85 $0.88 $0.76 $0.93 MSFT 65.0%
1.4% 11.2% $0.99 $0.98 $0.89 $0.84 $0.97 C 99.0%
-2.6% 0.1% $0.99 $0.94 $0.87 $0.85 $0.96 Average Beta over 100 iterations
-4.0% -1.8% $1.02 $0.94 $0.83 $0.83 $0.96
-16.7% -5.1% $0.97 $0.89 $0.69 $0.79 $0.89
-8.7% 5.9% $0.98 $0.85 $0.63 $0.83 $0.87
-4.9% -5.9% $0.95 $0.83 $0.60 $0.79 $0.84
3.3% 0.1% $0.95 $0.83 $0.62 $0.79 $0.85
-12.7% -34.0% $0.81 $0.71 $0.54 $0.52 $0.71 Considering ONLY returns
-10.4% -9.5% $0.76 $0.63 $0.49 $0.47 $0.65 calculate the downside Beta by clicking t
3.4% 9.4% $0.78 $0.67 $0.50 $0.51 $0.68
7.9% -0.2% $0.79 $0.66 $0.54 $0.51 $0.70
2.2% 23.6% $0.82 $0.54 $0.56 $0.63 $0.70
1.4% 11.2% $0.82 $0.62 $0.56 $0.70 $0.73
3.0% 5.5% $0.84 $0.61 $0.58 $0.74 $0.75 up/down Beta
-3.9% 5.7% $0.84 $0.60 $0.56 $0.79 $0.74 IBM 1.951
3.3% 0.1% $0.84 $0.60 $0.58 $0.79 $0.75 MSFT 1.498
-4.9% -5.9% $0.82 $0.59 $0.55 $0.74 $0.72 C 1.496
0.4% -3.4% $0.82 $0.59 $0.55 $0.71 $0.72
-8.7% -8.9% $0.76 $0.54 $0.50 $0.65 $0.66 Pick either "<" or ">" and a percentage
13.6% 12.5% $0.82 $0.57 $0.57 $0.73 $0.72 then click the downside Beta
6.9% 0.8% $0.85 $0.60 $0.61 $0.74 $0.76 You can also change the percentage with the
10.4% 5.6% $0.92 $0.65 $0.67 $0.78 $0.82 in which case the button is automatically click
15.5% -8.0% $0.92 $0.61 $0.78 $0.72 $0.83
-3.8% 25.9% $1.01 $0.70 $0.75 $0.90 $0.91 If B = Beta and dB and uB are the downside
5.0% 1.0% $1.05 $0.79 $0.78 $0.91 $0.96 A = Alpha and dA and uA are the downside
7.2% 3.2% $1.06 $0.83 $0.84 $0.94 $0.99 x*dB + y*uB = B
7.9% 5.2% $1.13 $0.92 $0.91 $0.99 $1.06 x*dA + y*uA = A
14.7% -15.5% $1.17 $1.05 $1.04 $0.84 $1.13 give
1.3% -5.3% $1.16 $1.06 $1.05 $0.79 $1.13 x = (uA*B - uB*A) / (uA*dB - uB*dA)
-2.2% -1.0% $1.11 $1.03 $1.03 $0.78 $1.09 y = (A*dB - B*dA) / (uA*dB - uB*dA)
-4.1% 1.6% $1.12 $1.00 $0.99 $0.80 $1.08 Example:
-5.5% 4.9% $1.18 $1.02 $0.93 $0.84 $1.11 x = -0.361
-1.6% -0.7% $1.20 $1.07 $0.92 $0.83 $1.12 so (-0.361)* (0.890) + (0.861)* (1.946) = 1.355
15.2% 6.9% $1.27 $1.19 $1.06 $0.89 $1.22 and (-0.361)* (-0.023) + (0.861)* (-0.005) = 0.
1.9% 14.7% $1.33 $1.24 $1.08 $1.02 $1.28
13.6% 12.5% $1.44 $1.32 $1.23 $1.14 $1.40
22.3% 25.2% $1.59 $1.78 $1.50 $1.43 $1.67
-6.0% 2.9% $1.56 $1.70 $1.41 $1.47 $1.62
2.3% 5.3% $1.55 $1.82 $1.44 $1.55 $1.66
5.0% 1.0% $1.60 $2.05 $1.51 $1.57 $1.75
-4.0% -1.8% $1.64 $2.04 $1.45 $1.54 $1.75
-10.9% -9.5% $1.44 $1.57 $1.29 $1.39 $1.51
8.9% 0.1% $1.47 $1.57 $1.41 $1.39 $1.55
-10.3% 5.4% $1.44 $1.51 $1.26 $1.47 $1.50
-16.2% 2.4% $1.37 $1.57 $1.06 $1.50 $1.43
7.6% -4.0% $1.39 $1.55 $1.14 $1.44 $1.45
2.2% 3.3% $1.41 $1.56 $1.16 $1.49 $1.48
7.6% -4.0% $1.43 $1.55 $1.25 $1.43 $1.50
6.9% 0.8% $1.49 $1.63 $1.34 $1.44 $1.57
2.6% -0.1% $1.50 $1.62 $1.37 $1.44 $1.58
13.6% 12.5% $1.63 $1.72 $1.56 $1.62 $1.73
3.0% 5.5% $1.67 $1.70 $1.61 $1.71 $1.77
-1.7% 1.8% $1.63 $1.61 $1.58 $1.74 $1.72
8.9% 9.0% $1.71 $1.79 $1.72 $1.90 $1.85
0.2% -3.0% $1.67 $1.79 $1.73 $1.84 $1.83
2.3% 0.3% $1.72 $1.77 $1.77 $1.85 $1.86
-1.1% 1.9% $1.73 $1.80 $1.75 $1.89 $1.87
4.7% 5.5% $1.68 $1.50 $1.83 $1.99 $1.81
-7.3% -8.5% $1.58 $1.45 $1.69 $1.82 $1.70
-8.2% -1.8% $1.53 $1.46 $1.55 $1.79 $1.64
-0.3% -4.3% $1.48 $1.44 $1.55 $1.71 $1.61
2.3% 5.3% $1.47 $1.55 $1.59 $1.80 $1.64
3.0% 5.5% $1.51 $1.52 $1.63 $1.90 $1.68
-1.8% 2.7% $1.42 $1.42 $1.60 $1.95 $1.60
1.7% 12.3% $1.44 $1.50 $1.63 $2.19 $1.66
-10.9% -9.5% $1.27 $1.16 $1.45 $1.98 $1.43
15.5% -8.0% $1.26 $1.09 $1.68 $1.82 $1.45
-5.9% 0.1% $1.24 $1.11 $1.58 $1.83 $1.42
-1.7% 1.8% $1.21 $1.05 $1.55 $1.86 $1.38
7.2% 3.2% $1.23 $1.11 $1.67 $1.92 $1.43
0.4% -3.2% $1.25 $1.12 $1.67 $1.86 $1.45
-16.7% -5.1% $1.19 $1.06 $1.39 $1.76 $1.34
-7.3% -8.5% $1.12 $1.02 $1.29 $1.61 $1.26
7.9% 5.2% $1.19 $1.13 $1.39 $1.69 $1.35
2.3% 5.3% $1.18 $1.21 $1.43 $1.78 $1.38
3.4% 1.6% $1.19 $1.22 $1.47 $1.81 $1.40
19.4% 8.7% $1.25 $1.27 $1.76 $1.97 $1.52
13.7% -1.1% $1.26 $1.42 $2.00 $1.95 $1.60
13.6% 12.5% $1.37 $1.50 $2.27 $2.19 $1.74
1.3% 1.9% $1.38 $1.55 $2.30 $2.23 $1.77
0.0% 10.7% $1.47 $1.82 $2.30 $2.47 $1.91
26.2% 13.2% $1.50 $1.81 $2.90 $2.80 $2.05
5.6% 13.9% $1.59 $1.96 $3.07 $3.19 $2.20
14.7% -15.5% $1.65 $2.24 $3.52 $2.70 $2.34
2.6% -0.1% $1.67 $2.23 $3.61 $2.69 $2.36
2.1% 4.5% $1.70 $2.17 $3.69 $2.81 $2.39
11.8% 7.5% $1.77 $2.42 $4.12 $3.03 $2.56
-4.2% 0.6% $1.79 $2.39 $3.95 $3.04 $2.55
-12.7% 17.0% $1.80 $2.45 $3.45 $3.56 $2.55
5.6% 13.9% $1.91 $2.65 $3.64 $4.06 $2.74
15.5% -8.0% $1.91 $2.50 $4.20 $3.73 $2.77
-10.3% 5.4% $1.87 $2.41 $3.77 $3.93 $2.68
10.4% 5.6% $2.03 $2.58 $4.16 $4.15 $2.90
27.9% -3.1% $2.02 $2.64 $5.33 $4.03 $3.06
8.9% 9.0% $2.12 $2.94 $5.80 $4.39 $3.29
-34.4% -1.2% $2.09 $2.77 $3.81 $4.33 $2.99
-0.1% 0.6% $2.06 $2.83 $3.80 $4.36 $2.99
-8.7% 5.9% $2.08 $2.70 $3.47 $4.62 $2.94
-1.8% 2.7% $1.95 $2.51 $3.41 $4.74 $2.80
3.4% 1.6% $1.98 $2.52 $3.53 $4.82 $2.85
-12.7% 17.0% $1.99 $2.59 $3.08 $5.64 $2.85
13.6% 12.4% $2.04 $3.05 $3.50 $6.34 $3.10
2.3% 0.3% $2.10 $3.02 $3.58 $6.36 $3.15
-11.3% 6.9% $2.15 $3.02 $3.18 $6.79 $3.14
2.3% 0.3% $2.20 $2.99 $3.25 $6.82 $3.19
8.9% 0.1% $2.26 $2.98 $3.54 $6.83 $3.29
-8.7% 5.9% $2.28 $2.84 $3.23 $7.23 $3.24
-12.3% -13.4% $2.16 $2.78 $2.84 $6.26 $3.01
-10.3% 5.4% $2.12 $2.68 $2.54 $6.59 $2.91
-1.7% 1.8% $2.06 $2.54 $2.50 $6.71 $2.84
15.2% 6.9% $2.18 $2.83 $2.88 $7.17 $3.10
120 3.00% Number Number Number
26 21 25
^DJI
IBM IBM ^DJI MSFT ^DJI C
40%
4.7% 4.3% 7.2% 11.9% 4.7% 14.7%
7.2% 17.2% 5.1% 8.9% 7.2% 35%
14.3%
4.2% 4.6% 8.1% 13.6% 4.2% 7.5%
30%
5.1% 11.4% 4.0% 14.7% 5.1% 9.0%
25%
1.1 8.1% 6.0% 6.1% 15.2% 8.1% 12.5%
4.0% 14.1% 5.2% 19.4% 9.6% 25.9%
20%
f(x) = 1.951 x − 0.005
ge of 100 iterations that had Beta > 1.1 9.6% 15.6% 3.9% 11.8% 6.1% 6.9%
15%
1.356 1.357 6.1% 11.4% 5.7% 28.2% 5.2% 8.7%
1.198 1.183 Historical Betas 5.2% 4.4% 7.8% 18.9% 10.2% 10%
17.5%
1.410 1.416 10.2% 18.0% 3.0% 14.2% 3.9% 7.5%
5%
Beta over 100 iterations 3.9% 11.4% 8.7% 23.9% 3.8% 23.6%
0%
5.7% 4.7% 8.6% 10.4% 5.7% 3.4%
3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11%
7.8% 15.2% 10.6% 22.3% 7.8% 15.7%
MSFT 30%
6.6% 17.7% 5.9% 7.9% 6.6% 10.7%
8.7% 19.7% 6.1% 5.6% 8.7% 9.3%
8.6% 7.1% 6.9% 6.5% 8.6% 25%
5.6%
nsidering ONLY returns < 3.0 % 10.6% 35.4% 4.0% 6.9% 10.6% 25.2%
e the downside Beta by clicking the button below 5.9% 10.3% 3.6% 3.1% 5.9% 20%
5.2%
f(x) = 1.498 x + 0.038
6.1% 8.2% 3.5% 8.0% 6.1% 13.9%
4.4% 3.9% 3.4% 5.0% 4.4% 15%
5.1%
4.0% 5.2% 5.7% 7.4% 5.7% 4.9%
3.4% 4.6% 6.9% 3.2%
10%
$4.00
$3.50
$3.00
$2.50
$2.00
$1.50
$1.00
$0.50
$0.00
1-May-97 1-Apr-98 1-Mar-99 1-Feb-00 1-Jan-01 1-Dec-01 1-Nov-02 1-Oct-03 1-Sep-04 1-Aug-05 1-Jul-06
Adj Close
13.64 The first-named asset A
15.64 is the "benchmark"
17.87
15.78
16.97 See: http://www.gummy-stuff.org/downside-Beta.htm
17.43
19.00
20.12
18.51
20.83
22.46
22.95
22.98
22.74
25.28
16.68
14.09
17.74
18.96
18.75
21.23
22.25
24.19
28.43
25.16
27.05
25.45
25.39
25.14
31.08
30.86
31.90
32.65
29.73
34.40
33.98
35.81
34.70
40.60
44.95
41.62
40.52
38.45
39.42
43.21
38.06
34.81
38.04
39.77
41.01
38.96
35.65
31.53
35.44
37.42
39.44
37.16
35.47
38.82
33.94
33.99
30.50
26.40
27.79
25.16
31.51
33.15
30.01
29.46
28.59
29.54
33.66
35.36
36.89
38.92
37.66
39.53
41.48
41.16
42.48
43.66
44.34
45.61
42.78
41.31
41.37
39.58
41.82
39.61
40.20
40.54
43.65
44.44
43.62
41.08
43.33
43.47
42.66
40.54
40.79
42.42
42.67
45.69
45.67
43.84
44.10
44.92
48.00
47.38
46.37
46.43
47.91
48.22
48.69
48.62
54.61
54.05
49.87
50.83
53.09
53.95