SEA LEVEL RISE ON THE ESTUARY

THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY
WHAT IS SEA LEVEL?
WHAT IS SEA LEVEL?
MSL is defined as the zero
elevation for a local area.

MSL is usually described as a

surface that is the arithmetic mean
of hourly water elevations
observed over a specific 19-year
cycle.

This definition averages out tidal

highs and lows caused by the
changing effects of the
gravitational forces from the moon
and sun.
WHAT IS SEA LEVEL?
 SATELLITES

GEOLOGY

TIDE GAUGES

HOW DO WE TRACK SEA LEVEL?

A RISING RIVER
Hudson River Sea Level 1856-2013
‣ Hudson River is over (in mm, observed at Manhattan
12” higher than a
century ago
‣ 21st Century SLR is
much more rapid and
seems to be
accelerating

1856-2010: 1.7mm/yr
1996-2013: 3.7mm/yr
rolling 5 year average
2000 - 2011: 6.76mm/yr
What causes the sea level to change?
What causes the sea level to change?
What causes the sea level to change?
 LAND-BASED ICE
CONTRIBUTION TO SEA LEVEL RISE
LAND-BASED ICE
CONTRIBUTION TO
SEA LEVEL RISE
What causes the sea level to change?
What causes the sea level to change?
What causes the sea level to change?
RELATIVE CONTRIBUTIONS TO SEA LEVEL RISE
SEA LEVEL RISE:
FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE
 OCEAN WARMING
(THERMAL EXPANSION)

GLACIERS AND ICE CAPS

GREEENLAND 2.3m/degree C

4.2ft/ degree F
ANTARCTICA

TOTAL SEA LEVEL RISE

Levermann A et al. PNAS 2013;110:13745-13750

PREDICTING FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE

Text

from Vermeer and Rahmstorf 2008

PAST AND FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE

Shown is the central range (middle 67%) of values from model-based probabilities rounded to the nearest inch.
2 The rapid ice melt scenario is based on acceleration of recent rates of ice melt in the Greenland and West

Antarctic Ice sheets and paleoclimate studies.

SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS

FOR HUDSON RIVER
BIODIVERSITY WATERFRONTS INFRASTRUCTURE

SEA-LEVEL RISE
Resources at Risk
FLOODING
FLOODING
A NEW NORMAL
STORM SURGE EVENTS

‣ Number or frequency
of events: trend unclear
‣ Higher intensity events
‣ Greater frequency of
surge events in warmer
years
HURRICANE SANDY
A NEW NORMAL
STORM SURGE EVENTS

2011: Hurricane Irene

‣ 4.5FT STORM SURGE

2012: Hurricane Sandy

‣ 6.25FT STORM SURGE

COASTAL HAZARD:
Coastal Inundation
ACCELERATING COASTAL
RISKS

‣ elevated
coastal storm
heights and
impacts

sea level rise

.2 .2 .2
.2 3
.2 3 3
3
3

2100
adapted from Climate Central
MODELING SEA-LEVEL RISE 6”
ALONG THE HUDSON RIVER
ESTUARY 12”

18”
‣ 9300+ acres inundated 24”
by 2100
‣ 11,000+ acres at risk of 30”
greater flooding 36”
frequency/depth
42”

48”

54”

100yr

500yr
SEA-LEVEL RISE IN
THE HUDSON RIVER
ESTUARY
Tools
Sea Level Rise Mapper
SEA LEVEL RISE

‣ Sea Level Rise

www.scenichudson.org/slr Sea level rise is accelerating along the Hudson River, About Sea Level Rise
promising to transform riverfront communities and the News
Mapper ecology of the Estuary. This site provides tools and resources
for communities to plan for a more resilient future.
Mapping
Waterfront Forums
Task Forces
Kingston
Resources
Legal Tools
Smart Growth
Principles
Science Sources
Case Studies
SEA-LEVEL RISE IN THE
HUDSON RIVER
ESTUARY
Tools
Sea Level Rise Mapper
SEA LEVEL RISE

Sea level rise is accelerating along the Hudson River, About Sea Level Rise
promising to transform riverfront communities and the News

‣ Inundation Zones ecology of the Estuary. This site provides tools and resources
for communities to plan for a more resilient future.
Mapping
Waterfront Forums

‣ FEMA Flood Zones

Task Forces
Kingston
Resources

‣ Census Information Legal Tools

Smart Growth
Principles

‣ Tidal Wetlands & Science Sources

Case Studies
SAV
‣ Municipal Assets
‣ Brownfields and
HazMat sites
‣ Community
Summaries
FUTURE INUNDATION AREAS
DATA LAYERS
DATA LAYERS
COMMUNITY SUMMARIES
At Risk From Flooding At Risk From Flooding

HOUSEHOLDS
Inundation 3,654
Flooding 11,929
PEOPLE
Inundation 6,911
Flooding 22,221

PEOPLE AT RISK
 RAIL LINES
inundation 102 miles
flooding 401 miles

ASSETS AT RISK
72” of SLR
 RAIL LINES BROWNFIELDS & HAZMATS
inundation 102 miles 51 sites
flooding 401 miles 195 sites

ASSETS AT RISK
72” of SLR
 RAIL LINES BROWNFIELDS & HAZMATSTREATMENT PLANTS
inundation 102 miles 51 sites 3 plants
flooding 401 miles 195 sites 11 plants

ASSETS AT RISK
72” of SLR
VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE
Wastewater Treatment Plants
VULNERABLE INFRASTRUCTURE
Wastewater Treatment Plants
TIDAL WETLANDS OF THE HUDSON
THE RETURN OF HUDSON RIVER ISLANDS
5,000 years ago Today

sediment and peat

formation
Future

wetland migration complete wetland loss

potential where there is where shoreline is
vacant land hardened

THE FUTURE OF TIDAL HABITATS

 2100
2080
2060
2040
2020
2007

Transitional Scrub-Shrub Tidal Swamp

Developed Upland
Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh Undeveloped Upland
Vegetated Tidal Flat Tidal Flat Upland Wetland
 2100
2080
2060
2040
2020
2007
Transitional Scrub-Shrub Tidal Swamp
Developed Upland
Irreg.-Flooded Marsh Regularly-Flooded Marsh Undeveloped Upland
Vegetated Tidal Flat Tidal Flat Upland Wetland
GET AHEAD OF THE CURVE

‣ How can we reduce risks

to people, property and
nature?
‣ What should our goals be
for addressing climate
change?

“Skate to where the puck is

going to be...” - Wayne
Gretsky

“Manage the unavoidable,

and avoid the
unmanageable”
- Rip Rapson
RESOURCES
‣ SCENIC HUDSON
www.scenichudson.org/slr

‣ CLIMATE CENTRAL
www.sealevel.climatecentral.or
g

‣ US GLOBAL CHANGE
RESEARCH PROGRAM
www.globalchange.gov/browse
/educators

‣ HUDSON RIVER
ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS OBSERVING
SYSTEM
www.hrecos.org