Does Artificial Intelligence Pose a Threat?

- WSJ 10/08/2021, 09:57

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BUSINESS | LEADERSHIP

Does Artificial Intelligence Pose a Threat?

A panel of experts discusses the prospect of machines capable of autonomous reasoning

PHOTO: CORBIS

By Ted Greenwald
May 10, 2015 11:08 pm ET

Paging Sarah Connor!

After decades as a sci-fi staple, artificial intelligence has leapt into the
mainstream. Between Apple’s Siri and Amazon’s Alexa, IBM’s
IBM -0.84%
▲
Watson and Google Brain, machines that understand the
world and respond productively suddenly seem imminent.

The combination of immense Internet-connected networks and

machine-learning algorithms has yielded dramatic advances in
machines’ ability to understand spoken and visual communications,
capabilities that fall under the heading “narrow” artificial intelligence.
Can machines capable of autonomous reasoning—so-called general AI
—be far behind? And at that point, what’s to keep them from improving
themselves until they have no need for humanity?

The prospect has unleashed a wave of anxiety. “I think the development

of full artificial intelligence could spell the end of the human race,”

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astrophysicist Stephen Hawking told the BBC. Tesla founder Elon Musk
called AI “our biggest existential threat.” Former Microsoft Chief
Executive Bill Gates has voiced his agreement.

How realistic are such

JOURNAL REPORT concerns? And how urgent?
•Insights from The Experts We assembled a panel of
•Read more at WSJ.com/LeadershipReport experts from industry,
research and policy-making to
consider the dangers—if any
MORE IN BIG ISSUES: TECHNOLOGY
—that lie ahead. Taking part
•Will Smartwatches Be a Hit? in the discussion are Jaan
•Does Technology Belong in Classroom Instruction? Tallinn, a co-founder of Skype
•Is Technology Making People Less Sociable? and the think tanks Centre for
•Should Washington Allow Companies to Strike the Study of Existential Risk
Back Against Hackers?
and the Future of Life
•Can the Sharing Economy Provide Good Jobs?
Institute; Guruduth S.
Banavar, vice president of
cognitive computing at IBM’s
Thomas J. Watson Research
Center; and Francesca Rossi, a professor of computer science at the
University of Padua, a fellow at the Radcliffe Institute for Advanced
Study at Harvard University and president of the International Joint
Conferences on Artificial Intelligence, the main international gathering
of researchers in AI.

Here are edited excerpts from their conversation.

What’s the risk?

WSJ: Does AI pose a threat to humanity?

MR. BANAVAR: Fueled by science-fiction novels and movies, popular

treatment of this topic far too often has created a false sense of conflict
between humans and machines. “Intelligent machines” tend to be great
at tasks that humans are not so good at, such as sifting through vast
data. Conversely, machines are pretty bad at things that humans are
excellent at, such as common-sense reasoning, asking brilliant
questions and thinking out of the box. The combination of human and
machine, which we consider the foundation of cognitive computing, is
truly revolutionizing how we solve complex problems in every field.

AI-based systems are already making our lives better in so many ways:
Consider automated stock-trading agents, aircraft autopilots,
recommendation systems, industrial robots, fraud detectors and search
engines. In the last five to 10 years, machine-learning algorithms and
advanced computational infrastructure have enabled us to build many
new applications.

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However, it’s important to realize that those algorithms can only go so

far. More complex symbolic systems are needed to achieve major
progress—and that’s a tall order. Today’s neuroscience and cognitive
science barely scratch the surface of human intelligence.

My personal view is that the sensationalism and speculation around

general-purpose, human-level machine intelligence is little more than
good entertainment.

MR. TALLINN: Today’s AI is unlikely to pose a threat. Once we shift to

discussing long-term effects of general AI (which, for practical
purposes, we might define as AI that’s able to do strategy, science and
AI development better than humans), we run into the superintelligence
control problem.

WSJ: What is the superintelligence control problem?

MR. TALLINN: Even fully autonomous robots these days have off

switches that allow humans to have ultimate control. However, the off
switch only works because it is outside the domain of the robot. For
instance, a chess computer is specific to the domain of chess rules, so it
is unaware that its opponent can pull the plug to abort the game.

However, if we consider superintelligent machines that can represent

the state of the world in general and make predictions about the
consequences of someone hitting their off switch, it might become very
hard for humans to use that switch if the machine is programmed
(either explicitly or implicitly) to prevent that from happening.

WSJ: How serious could this problem be?

MR. TALLINN: It’s a purely theoretical problem at this stage. But it

would be prudent to assume that a superintelligent AI would be
constrained only by the laws of physics and the initial programming
given to its early ancestor.

The initial programming is likely to be a function of our knowledge of

physics—and we know that’s still incomplete! Should we find ourselves
in a position where we need to specify to an AI, in program code, “Go on

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from here and build a great future for us,” we’d better be very certain
we know how reality works.

As to your question, it could be a serious problem. It is important to

retain some control over the positions of atoms in our universe [and
not inadvertently give control over them to an AI].

MS. ROSSI: AI is already more “intelligent” than humans in narrow

domains, some of which involve delicate decision making. Humanity is
not threatened by them, but many people could be affected by their
decisions. Examples are autonomous online trading agents, health-
diagnosis support systems and soon autonomous cars and weapons.

We need to assess their potential dangers in the narrow domains where

they will function and make them safe, friendly and aligned with human
values. This is not an easy task, since even humans are not rationally
following their principles most of the time.

Affecting everyday life

WSJ: What potential dangers do you have in mind for narrow-domain
AI?

MS. ROSSI: Consider automated trading systems. A bad decision in

these systems may be (and has been) a financial disaster for many
people. That will also be the case for self-driving cars. Some of their
decisions will be critical and possibly affect lives.

WSJ: Guru, how do you view the risks?

MR. BANAVAR: Any discussion of risk has two sides: the risk of doing it
and the risk of not doing it. We already know the practical risk today of
decisions made with incomplete information by imperfect
professionals—thousands of lives, billions of dollars and slow progress
in critical fields like health care. Based on IBM’s experience with
implementing Watson in multiple industries, I maintain that narrow-
domain AI significantly mitigates these risks.

I will not venture into the domain of general AI, since it is anybody’s
speculation. My personal opinion is that we repeatedly underestimate
the complexity of implementing it. There simply are too many unknown
unknowns.

WSJ: What proactive steps is International Business Machines taking

to mitigate risks arising from its AI technology?

MR. BANAVAR: Cognitive systems, like other modern computing

systems, are built using cloud-computing infrastructure, algorithmic
code and huge amounts of data. The behavior of these systems can be
logged, tracked and audited for violations of policy. These cognitive

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systems are not autonomous, so their code, data and infrastructure

themselves need to be protected against attacks. People who access and
update any of these components can be controlled.

The data can be protected through strong encryption and its integrity
managed through digital signatures. The algorithmic code can be
protected using vulnerability scanning and other verification
techniques. The infrastructure can be protected through isolation,
intrusion protection and so on.

These mechanisms are meant to support AI safety policies that emerge

from a deeper analysis of the perceived risks. Such policies need to be
identified by bodies like the SEC, FDA and more broadly NIST, which
generally implement standards for safety and security in their
respective domains.

WSJ: Watson is helping doctors with diagnoses. Can it be held

responsible for a mistake that results in harm?

MR. BANAVAR: Watson doesn’t provide diagnoses. It digests huge

amounts of medical data to provide insights and options to doctors in
the context of specific cases. A doctor could consider those insights, as
well as other factors, when evaluating treatment options. And the
doctor can dig into the evidence supporting each of the options. But,
ultimately, the doctor makes the final diagnostic decision.

MS. ROSSI: Doctors make mistakes all the time, not because they are
bad, but because they can’t possibly know everything there is to know
about a disease. Systems like Watson will help them make fewer
mistakes.

MR. TALLINN: I’ve heard about research into how doctors compare to
automated statistical systems when it comes to diagnosis. The
conclusion was that the doctors, at least on average, were worse.
What’s more, when doctors second-guessed the system, they made the
result worse.

MR. BANAVAR: On the whole, I believe it is beneficial to have more

complete information from Watson. I, for one, would personally prefer
that anytime as a patient!

The human impact

WSJ: Some experts believe that AI is already taking jobs away from
people. Do you agree?

MR. TALLINN: Technology has always had the tendency to make jobs
obsolete. I’m reminded of an Uber driver whose services I used a while
ago. His seat was surrounded by numerous gadgets, and he
demonstrated enthusiastically how he could dictate my destination

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address to a tablet and receive driving instructions. I pointed out to him

that, in a few years, maybe the gadgets themselves would do the
driving. To which he gleefully replied that then he could sit back and
relax—leaving me to quietly shake my head in the back seat. I do believe
the main effect of self-driving cars will come not from their
convenience but from the massive impact they will have on the job
market.

In the long run, we should think about how to organize society around
something other than near-universal employment.

MR. BANAVAR: From time immemorial, we have built tools to help us

do things we can’t do. Each generation of tools has made us rethink the
nature and types of jobs. Productivity goes up, professions are
redefined, new professions are created and some professions become
obsolete. Cognitive systems, which can enhance and scale the
capabilities of our minds, have the potential to be even more
transformative.

The key question will be how to build institutions to quickly train

professionals to exploit cognitive systems as their assistants. Once
learned, these skills will make every individual a better professional,
and this will set a new bar for the nature of expertise.

WSJ: How should the AI community prepare?

MR. TALLINN: There is significant uncertainty about the time horizons

and whether a general AI is possible at all. (Though, being a physicist, I
don’t see anything in physics that would prevent it!) Crucially, though,
the uncertainty does not excuse us from thinking about the control
problem. Proper research into this is just getting started and might
take decades, because the problem appears very hard.

MS. ROSSI: I believe we can design narrowly intelligent AI machines in

a way that most undesired effects are eliminated. We need to align their
values with ours and equip them with guiding principles and priorities,
as well as conflict-resolution abilities that match ours. If we do that in
narrowly intelligent machines, they will be the building blocks of
general AI systems that will be safe enough to not threaten humanity.

MR. BANAVAR: In the early 1990s, when it became apparent the health-
care industry would be computerized, patient-rights activists in
multiple countries began a process that resulted in confidentiality
regulations a decade later. In the U.S. as in other places, it is now
technologically feasible to track HIPAA compliance, and it is possible to
enforce the liability regulations for violations. Similarly, the serious
question to ask in the context of narrow-domain AI is, what are the
rights that could be violated, and what are the resulting liabilities?

MS. ROSSI: As we have safety checks that need to be passed by anybody

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who wants to sell a human-driven car, there will need to be new checks
to be passed by self-driving cars. Not only will the code running in such
cars need to be carefully verified and validated, but we will also need to
check that the decisions will be made according to ethical and moral
principles that we would agree on.

MR. BANAVAR: What are the rights of drivers, passengers, and

passersby in a world with self-driving cars? Is it a consumer’s right to
limit the amount of information that can be exchanged between a
financial adviser and her cognitive assistant? Who is liable for the
advice—the financial adviser, the financial-services organization, the
builder of the cognitive assistant or the curator of the data? These are
as much questions about today’s world, [about how we regulate]
autonomous individuals and groups with independent goals, as they
are about a future world with machine intelligence.

Mr. Greenwald is a news editor for The Wall Street Journal in San
Francisco. He can be reached at ted.greenwald@wsj.com.

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