Global Prospect for Renewable

Energy, by the year 2050

By Fang Khai Tan

Executive Summary

Climate change is real and it is affecting the global temperature. With a rise
of population, demand of energy rises. Hence, to combat climate change, a
push for renewable energy is inevitable. The future of solar energy as a
renewable energy is looking bright. The prices for solar panels are less than
half of what Swanson’s Law predicted and we could have cheaper than coal
for electricity with no carbon emissions. Besides, energy fusion might be
further developed in 2050 which is more environmentally friendly as
compared to conventional fossil fuels and nuclear fission power generation.
In the future, government would take advantage of offshore power and build
larger wind turbines offshore as it generates electricity with higher efficiency
and more reliable winds. For geothermal energy, we might have the
technology available in 2050 to drill deeper down the earth’s crust to
harness its energy that is 50,000 times more energy than all fossil fuels
combined. Improvement in renewable is crucial in tackling climate change
and government plays an important role in terms of subsidizing renewables.
Introduction
What is climate change? Climate change is a general term for the change in
global-wide weather phenomena which is closely linked to an increase in
global average temperatures. Carbon dioxide levels are closely linked to
climate change phenomena due to human activity releasing large amounts of
carbon dioxide that have trapped heat in the atmosphere as well as in the
oceans. In the beginning of the industrial revolution, the atmospheric carbon
dioxide averaged about 280 ppm. However, in March 2018, the global
average had climbed to a staggering 408.75 ppm. (Noaa.gov, 2018) This
phenomenon is so deliberate that every single United States president since
President John F Kennedy was warned about climate change. (Eenews.net,
2018). Hence, the push for renewable and cleaner energy is inevitable. In
fact, from the past decade, the growth of renewable energy has been around
7-9% per annum. In the year 2015, renewable energy peaked at around
9.26% growth from last report year. (Whiteman et al., 2018) . However,
even with the increase with renewables, the use of fossil fuels and natural
gas also increase every year due to the steady increase of the global
population. By 2050, a rise in the global population from 7 billion to ten
billion is expected could lead to a two to threefold increase in energy
consumption.

Solar Energy
By 2050, the global prospect of renewables is looking bright. Based on an
economic concept called the “learning curve”, which means the cost will be
driven down the more you learn how to make something. Economics can
predict declines in price by relating price to the quantity of a thing produced.
In this case, renewable energy. In Swanson’s Law, the price of solar cells
tends to drop 20% whenever the volume is doubled. However, one problem
with Swanson’s Law, it is proven far too pessimistic. Current prices for
solar-electric panels are less than half of what the law would have predicted.
(Weaver and Weaver, 2018) Optimistically, we could have a power source
which is half the price or cheaper than coal for electricity with no carbon
emissions. It makes sense for the government or the people to switch over
to renewable energy when it is cheaper than traditional power generation.
Having a consistent access to solar power is an issue as storage for long
periods of time is a big hurdle for scientists. However, this problem might be
fixed by 2050 as scientists in Sweden have developed a fluid called solar
thermal fuel that is able to store solar energy for over a decade. According
to an engineer that works with these materials at MIT, a solar thermal fuel is
like a battery, but instead of electricity, sunlight is captured and get heat
out, triggered on demand. When energy demand occurs, the fluid is pushed
through a catalyst that converts the molecules back to the original form,
warming the liquid. The warm liquid can then be used in domestic heating
systems and much more. (Wang et al., 2018) With this technology, solar
energy will be much more accessible to everyone as there will be no problem
storing solar energy even though there’s no sunlight in certain areas or even
season. Indirectly, increasing solar energy’s efficiency. Besides, by 2050,
zero-emission, off the grid skyscrapers and office buildings might be a
reality. See through photovoltaic panels might be further developed and
having increased efficiency in 2050 allowing most of the office buildings to
be self-sustainable. The cost of see through photovoltaic panels currently
costs twice than conventional windows. However, in the future, the price
could be 10% premium on the cost of regular glass once economies of scale
kick in. (Evans, 2018) Besides,
Solar road might also be a possibility in the future. Solar roadway is a
modular system of solar panels that is strong enough to be driven on. The
latest prototype of solar roadways’ tempered glass allows light to hit solar
panels inside a hexagonal sized panel. The tempered glass could also
withstand up to 250,000 pounds and protects the circuit board beneath it.
Solar roadway could also charge up electric vehicles from the electricity
generated from the solar panels itself via wireless charging. The panels
would also make the transportation ministry’s job easier. Since there’s LED
beneath the solar panels, the road could light up itself, making repainting
roads a thing in the past. Besides, since the road generates some heat itself,
snow and ice will not form on the road hence lowers down the possibility of
cars skidding. (Solarroadways.com, 2018)

Nuclear Energy
Nuclear energy is a controversial one. Even though nuclear energy is a low
carbon footprint power, Uranium-235, the fuel used in nuclear fission is
considered non-renewable by the Energy Information Administration.
(Eia.gov, 2018) However, nuclear energy is considered as renewable by
ex-president George W.Bush in his Labor Day speech in 2006.
(Web.archive.org, 2018) . Nuclear fission has a high energy density of any
power source with zero or low carbon emissions. By 2050, I predict that the
heat generated in the nuclear fission core can be transferred effectively to
the steam turbine with higher efficiency due to up to date machinery.
However, I think by 2050, we can do better. The dream of nuclear fusion
might be a reality by then. Unlike nuclear fission which involves taking
unstable elements like Uranium or Thorium (which is highly radioactive),
initiating a reaction which causes them to split and emit energy, nuclear
fusion is not radioactive at all. Nuclear fusion involves reactants that are
light and stable like isotopes of hydrogen (deuterium) and fuse them
together to emit energy. If it is developed by 2050, fusion power would
provide a higher energy density than any conventional,fuel-consuming
energy sources. Furthermore, nuclear fission’s fuel undergoes random decay
and it produces a large amount of concentrated radioactive waste. In fusion,
waste products can be controlled by controlling the amount of fuels used and
materials exposed to neutrons produced in the reaction itself. Hence, it is
more environmentally friendly. (Web.archive.org, 2018) . As opposed to
nuclear fission’s fuel supply that was estimated to be enough to last over
135 years at 2014 consumption rates (Uranium 2016: Resources, Production
and Demand, n.d.), nuclear fusion’s fuel (mainly Deuterium) exists
abundantly in the Earth’s ocean. Fusion could supply the world’s energy
needs for millions of years to come. (Ongena and Oost, 2004).

Wind Energy
Wind energy considered to be the fastest growing source of clean energy
with solar energy trailing slightly behind. Wind energy is exciting because we
technically will not run out of wind. By 2050, I speculate that we will have
wind turbines that are taller than a skyscraper. It makes sense to have
larger wind turbines by 2050. Huge turbines are more economically viable as
the wind is stronger at high altitude. Hence, it is more cost effective for
designers to design a larger wind turbine. Taller wind turbines allow
lengthier blades that also catch the wind more efficiently. According to a
professor of mechanical engineering in the University of Massachusetts
Lowell, if the blade length doubles, the wind turbines could generate four
times as much energy. (Sneed, 2017) Larger wind turbines also can start
generating energy at a lower speed. However, these large wind turbines
must be offshore where winds tend to be stronger and people on shore
would not be disturbed by the noise generated by the wind turbines.
Offshore wind turbines farm will also run more often while wind gets more
predictable. By 2050, most of the wind sector’s expansion will be offshore as
prices for new projects have dropped to nearly half in the last two years.
(Association, 2018) . A large turbine combining with a low capital cost will
also draw countries’ leader to embrace wind energy as a source of clean
energy. In the future, wind turbines might not even have blades anymore,
using vortexes instead of wings. Households might have their own small
wind energy generator with vortex design to reduce noise and also avoid
killing birds. Besides all that, wind turbines could be installed on the
highways to harvest the turbulent wind whenever cars pass by. Average
vehicle speeds on highways are approximately 70 miles per hour. Wind
turbines could be installed along the road divider or even above the
highways to harness the wind created by vehicles passing by. The power
generated from these can then be used to power up street lights in the
highway itself. (Muthukumar and Balasubramanian, 2012) A hybrid of
tidal-wave energy and offshore wind farms can be used to maximize energy
harvesting and reducing the costs as they share infrastructure.

Geothermal Energy
The technology for geothermal energy is fairly simple. A layer of magma
under the earth’s crust heats up the underground water. Geothermal plants
use the heated steam or hot water to power up an electric generator. Any
leftover steam or hot water will be pumped back into the reservoir.
However, in the future, we might be able to drill down deeper into the
ground and harness the heat in the upper six miles of earth’s crust. The
upper six miles of earth’s crust contains a whopping 50,000 times more
energy than all the remaining fossil fuels combined. (Brown, 2009)
Geothermal energy can also be directly used in the heating of homes without
converting it into electrical energy leading to decarbonization of heating in
homes.

Conclusion

As a conclusion, improvement in renewable energy is crucial in order to

tackle climate change and have a brighter,sustainable future. However,
government plays an important role in terms of subsidies. Currently, United
States’ fossil fuel production is heavily subsidized to about $20 billion
annually while renewable energy is beaten by a huge 7 to 1 margin. (Vox,
2018) At current crude price oil at $56 per barrel,
(markets.businessinsider.com, 2018) the subsidies pushes almost half of
new oil fields into profitability which potentially increases the US oil
production by 17 billion(equivalent of 6 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide).
This shows a wrong direction in tackling climate change. Fossil fuels doesn’t
need subsidies. These subsidies exist to help fossil fuel companies at
taxpayers’ expense. Instead, government can shift the weight of the
subsidies into renewables energy in order for the space to grow and mature
in order to lower the effect of climate change.

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