MATHS PROJECT

Monsoon Prediction

2021 - 2022

SUBMITTED BY
 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I thank everyone who helped me directly and indirectly for their

guidance, understanding and patience during this entire
learning journey. It was their help, motivation, meticulous
guidance, and inspiration that has led to successful completion
of the research work. I am very grateful to my teachers for their
help, valuable guidance, I do not have enough words to express
my deep and sincere appreciation. I acknowledge my deep sense
of gratitude and profound thanks to my family for their
continuous support and encouragement.
Table of Contents
1 Introduction.........................................................................................................................................3
2 Weather Affects Businesses.................................................................................................................4
3 Prediction of monsoon........................................................................................................................5
4 Predicting Indian Monsoon..................................................................................................................8
5 Simple prediction based on historical data..........................................................................................9
6 Data Analysis.....................................................................................................................................11
a. Historical Analysis..............................................................................................................................11
b. Forecasting........................................................................................................................................11
c. Predictive Analytics............................................................................................................................12
7 Forecasting Models Used Today........................................................................................................12
d. The Finite Difference Method............................................................................................................12
e. The Spectral Method.........................................................................................................................12
f. The Finite Element Method...............................................................................................................12
8 Conclusion.........................................................................................................................................13
g. Impact of climate change on Monsoon.............................................................................................13
9 References.........................................................................................................................................14
1 Introduction

The impact of severe weather events has its consequential influence on

social, cultural, commercial, health, defence, transport etc

Being a tropical country, India experiences severe weather events like

cyclones, severe thunderstorms, flash floods, snow avalanches etc

Advancements in computers together with induction of observational aids

like Doppler weather radars and satellites, high resolution numerical
weather prediction models

India Meteorological Department (IMD) is the agency responsible for

generating forecasts on all the scales in our country.
 Meteorological forecasts are generated for different timescales. Forecasts
of daily weather with a lead time of 1–3 days are short-range forecasts and
with a lead time of 3–10 days are called medium range forecasts. Forecasts
for monthly or seasonal rainfall come under the category of long-range
forecasts.

the problem of generating predictions of meteorological events (such as

heavy rainfall over a region) is more complex than that of generating
predictions of planetary orbits. This is because the atmosphere is unstable
and the systems responsible for the events that we are trying to predict,
such as clouds or a monsoon depression (in which thousands of clouds are
embedded) are the culmination of the instabilities of the atmosphere.

2 Weather Affects Businesses

There are obvious ways that weather affects business, like consumers
stocking up on milk and bread before a storm. Everyone knows that
customers increase their shopping for summer clothes as the spring skies
signal warmer days just ahead.

Companies that can mine beneath these surface-level weather

conclusions, though, have tremendous opportunity for sales growth and
 operating efficiencies. These are some of the ways weather data can be
used to affect business outcomes:

 Inventory planning
 Targeted marketing
 Production strategy
 Staffing allocations
 Supply chain development

Businesses of all types and sizes are taking note of the value of weather
data. Huge collaborative partnerships have been formed, and companies
are allocating significant budgets to the data analytics of understanding
how weather affects consumer behavior.

3 Prediction of monsoon

Several studies have attributed the rising trend in the frequency and
magnitude of the extreme rainfall events and decreasing trend in
moderate rainfall events during monsoon season over central Indian
region to climate change and natural variability.
No need for fortune tellers to predict the weather, we’ve got the power of
statistics.

In fact, meteorologists rely on one thing statisticians know a lot about—

applying rigorous scientific techniques to extract information and
knowledge from data.

Data first became crucial to predicting the weather in the mid-1800s, with
the invention of the telegraph. The telegraph allowed forecasters to
receive and record observations from much greater distances. It was
during this time that the collection of weather-related data began to grow
and change the way weather was predicted.
Today, weather-related data and the scientific discipline of statistics are
much more sophisticated. The data, for example, are now collected
through satellites, barometers, radars, weather balloons and many other
instruments that are located on land, in water and the atmosphere. The
data these instruments are collecting includes atmospheric pressure,
temperature, speed, rain, humidity, and many other components of
current weather conditions.

The Weather Company’s prediction process begins with the aggregation of

data from over 195,000 personal weather stations across the globe.  Then
they combine the data with forecasting and statistical models to provide
the hyperlocal weather forecasts that we turn to on our computers,
tablets and phones each day.

Meteorologists also rely on these statistical techniques to provide weather

predictions that extend from three to seven days out, one-month and even
three-month average forecasts that are distributed by the Climate
Prediction Center – NOAA. 

Though some still feel weather predictions are no more than educated
guesses, in reality, they are the result of extensive statistical analysis.

Meteorologists also use satellites to observe cloud patterns around the

world, and radar is used to measure precipitation. All of this data is then
plugged into super computers, which use numerical forecast equations to
create forecast models of the atmosphere.
Using applied statistics, information technology departments develop
complex models to analyze weather data.

Some of the aspects a weather considered are -

 Storms and other severe weather outbreaks

 Seasonal changes
  Air quality levels
 Temperature changes
 Rainfall measurements
 Unusual weather patterns

Monitoring the data from all of these tools allows meteorologists to track
changes in the weather through time. It’s important to observe previous
weather conditions (from last hour, to last year, to even the last century!)
in order for meteorologists to know what to expect in the future.
A snowstorm may set up a similar pattern to one in the past but produce a
different amount of snow in a different part of the state.

Satellite image of a 2010 blizzard. Courtesy of NASA. Satellite image of a

2011 blizzard. Courtesy of NASA

4 Predicting Indian Monsoon

We have seen that the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is one of the most
reliable events in the tropical calendar. The standard deviation of the
interannual variation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is only
about 10% of the average rainfall of about 85 cm.
 The frequency distribution of ISMR is not symmetric. It is characterized by a
longer tail with negative anomalies than that with positive anomalies. Over
the 132-year period there have been 23 droughts and 19 excess rainfall
years. Thus, historical records show that the chance of the so-called normal
monsoon is a little over 68%, of droughts around 17% and of excess rainfall
about 14%.

5 Simple prediction based on historical data

Below, I have taken a historic data for last 30 years = 1980 to 2018. Based
on the Forecast model which is in-built in Microsoft Excel, the following
forecast is predicted. Confidence level – 95%.
We can see that Indian Monsoon in 2021 is within the normal range
Measuring time – June to Sep
Average normal range – 880 mm +/- 10%
Forecast for 2021 – 850 mm
Forecasted value is well within the average range, hence we can say that
for 2021, monsoon is going to be NORMAL.
YEAR JUN-SEP Forecast(JUN-SEP)
1980 939.1
1981 885.1
1982 771.6
1983 989.2
1984 886.6
1985 833.5
1986 801.4
1987 757.6
1988 1053.5
1989 892.2
1990 969.6
1991 864.7
1992 858.4
1993 890.8
1994 994.4
1995 913.9
1996 900.7
1997 874.3
1998 911
1999 850.3
2000 815
2001 813.2
2002 695.7
2003 901
2004 790
2005 875.2
2006 926.8
2007 970.9
2008 902.8
2009 714.2
2010 910.7
2011 915.4
2012 841.7
2013 945.8
2014 784.2
2015 765.4
2016 863.7
2017 843.7
2018 802.4
2019 969.4 969.4
2020 849.4094225
2021 848.0170831
2022 846.6247437
6 Data Analysis
Data from various sources is utilized for predicting monsoon. Historical data
plays a key role in arriving at a model and forecasting

a. Historical Analysis
Evaluating historical trends is often a trusted method for predicting future
patterns.

Tracking weather patterns over time equips statisticians to predict the

future. While weather events never repeat exactly according to a pattern,
some general cadences and elements are fairly consistent.

Companies like AerisWeather maintain large databases with tens of

thousands of historical data points.

b. Forecasting
Statisticians are experts in probability and statistical inference that affect
forecasting. The science of applied statistics considers factors like
probability laws and theorems, discrete and continuous random variables
and joint distributions.

Predicting the weather is a highly sophisticated application of data science.

Researchers use instruments like radar, satellites and barometers to
collect weather data.
A complex mix of conditions affect a weather forecast -
  Temperatures
 Humidity levels
 Precipitation
 Wind velocity
 Air pressure

c. Predictive Analytics
In studying available data, statisticians apply predictive modeling methods
to systematically anticipate outcomes. Models may include linear and
nonlinear regression models and classification models. Applied statistics
includes constructing and evaluating predictive models.

7 Forecasting Models Used Today

There are various models used today. Some prominent ones are

d. The Finite Difference Method

e. The Spectral Method

f. The Finite Element Method

8 Conclusion
In the daily operation of weather forecasts, powerful supercomputers are
used to predict the weather by solving mathematical equations that
model the atmosphere and oceans.  In this process of numerical weather
prediction (NWP), computers manipulate vast datasets collected from
observations and perform extremely complex calculations to search for
optimal solutions with a dimension as high as 10-to-power-8.
The forecasting models have become better at predicting the monsoon.
The data-sets need to constantly updated. The factors impacting the
overall weather and monsoon specifically need to constantly be studied
as there is sharp change in the way factors impact the weather.
This makes the entire process complex and ever-evolving.

g. Impact of climate change on Monsoon

India is in the tropical monsoon zone and has high temporal and spatial
variability. Due to the impact of climate change there are significant
changes in the mean rainfall pattern and their variability.
9 References
https://metnet.imd.gov.in/mausamdocs/17034_F.pdf
https://nptel.ac.in/content/storage2/courses/119108006/downloads/Lect
ure40.pdf
https://onlinedegrees.mtu.edu/news/weather-applied-statistics
https://data.gov.in/node/6803241