Professional Documents
Culture Documents
LIABILITIES
10% 4% 7% 24%
11% 4% 7% 31%
24% 31% 30% 33%
242.669 416.385 235.606 118.575
Tax rate
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
52,561.95 56,318.10 62,062.55 66,344.86 72,448.59 79,331.21 87,105.66
(27,950.54) (29,745.91) (32,891.30) (35,160.80) (38,395.60) (42,043.18) (46,163.41)
24,611.41 26,572.22 29,171.24 31,184.06 34,052.99 37,288.03 40,942.25
759.92 807.32 807.32 807.32 807.32 807.32 807.32
(118.01) (186.97) 78.11 122.07 122.07 122.07 #VALUE!
641.91 620.35 885.43 929.39 929.39 929.39 #VALUE!
(12,265.94) (12,993.46) (14,400.90) (15,394.57) (16,810.87) (18,407.90) (20,211.87)
(1,133.30) (1,396.30) (1,438.43) (1,537.69) (1,679.15) (1,838.67) (2,018.86)
22.43 (5.72) (5.72) (5.72) (5.72) (5.72) (5.72)
725.31 500.28 500.28 500.28 500.28 500.28 500.28
11,212.17 12,182.46 13,331.91 14,251.81 15,562.97 17,041.46 18,711.52
1,626.63 1,948.07 2,125.86 2,895.58 3,531.44 3,531.44 3,531.44
12,838.80 14,130.53 15,457.76 17,147.39 19,094.42 20,572.90 22,242.96
12,601.82 13,297.37 14,711.89 15,675.75 16,986.92 18,465.40 #VALUE!
(1,846.07) (2,241.38) (2,317.49) (2,469.33) (2,675.87) (2,908.77) #VALUE!
10,205.63 10,554.33 12,394.40 13,206.43 14,311.05 15,556.64 #VALUE!
(21.65) (26.84) (26.84) (26.84) (26.84) (26.84) (26.84)
10,227.28 10,581.18 12,367.56 13,179.59 14,284.21 15,529.80 #VALUE!
14.65% 16.86%
Note Rate
Const
Growth assumed at Cost of debt 5.03%
Const
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Rev whole vietnam dairy industry 4,457 5,029 5,230 5,525 5,916
Rev growth whole industry 12.83% 4.00% 5.64% 7.08%
mkt share VNM 54.40% 55.40% 56.40% 57.40% 58.40%
sales growth VNM 7.15% 10.20% 6.90% 9.20% 9.50%
2024
6,403 in million US$ (according to Statista)
8.23%
59.40% According to Mai Kieu Lien (General director of VNM) VNM will increase 1% mkt share in the next five years.
9.80%
he next five years.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
ASSET
CURRENT ASSETS 15,457.99 16,731.88 18,673.83 20,307.43 20,559.76
Cash and cash equivalents 1,527.88 1,358.68 655.42 963.34 1,522.61
Short-term financial investments 7,469.00 8,668.38 10,453.75 10,561.71 8,673.93
Accounts Receivable - Short-term 2,777.10 2,685.47 2,866.68 4,591.70 4,639.45
Net Inventories 3,554.82 3,810.10 4,521.77 4,021.06 5,525.85
Other current assets 129.18 209.25 176.20 169.62 197.93
NON-CURRENT ASSETS 10,312.15 10,746.30 10,704.83 14,359.88 16,806.35
Long-term receivables 21.97 20.90 21.86 53.77 88.44
Fixed assets 8,086.40 8,214.13 8,321.05 10,609.31 13,365.35
Tangible fixed assets (PPE, net) 7,548.18 7,795.35 7,916.32 10,290.52 13,047.77
Intangible fixed assets 538.20 418.79 404.73 318.79 317.58
Investment in properties 147.72 142.37 136.97 95.27 90.25
Long-term woking in progress 889.72 843.68 993.11 1,928.57 868.25
Long-term financial investment 671.34 940.36 613.81 555.50 1,068.66
Other non-current assets 495.00 584.86 618.03 1,117.46 1,325.40
TOTAL ASSETS 25,770.14 27,478.18 29,378.66 34,667.32 37,366.11
LIABILITIES
CURRENT LIABILITIES 5,453.28 6,004.32 6,457.50 10,195.56 10,639.59
Accounts payable to suppliers 1,898.53 2,194.00 2,561.91 3,965.69 3,991.00
Advances from customers 17.83 20.00 35.95 360.18 535.55
Taxes payable to State Treasury 502.64 216.00 255.51 383.31 341.67
Payables to employees 1,633.48 452.00 192.35 205.72 215.27
Short-term accrued expenses 632.99 593.00 1,025.97 1,528.29 1,437.23
Short-term unearned revenue 0.02 - 3.36 7.34 6.91
Other short-term payables 598.43 - 592.10 2,783.82 2,540.33
Short-term borrowings 1,279.53 1,475.36 1,332.67 268.10 1,060.05
Provision – short-term 4.12 2.42 0.89 0.60 4.50
Bonus and welfare funds 355.72 405.46 456.79 692.19 507.00
LONG-TERM LIABILITIES 516.62 549.94 515.21 598.70 455.15
Long-term accrued expenses - - - - 2.06
Long-term unearned revenue - 2.60 1.66 1.04 0.42
Other long-term payables 8.19 2.82 0.59 16.57 29.61
Long-term borrowings 346.38 368.17 326.97 274.95 215.80
Deferred tax liabilities 84.71 89.03 90.03 203.62 204.76
Provision – long-term 77.33 87.33 95.96 102.52 2.51
TOTAL LIABILITIES 5,969.90 6,554.26 6,972.71 10,794.26 11,094.74
OWNER'S EQUITY 19,800.24 20,923.92 22,405.95 23,873.06 26,271.37
Share capital 10,006.41 12,006.62 14,514.53 14,514.53 17,416.88
Treasury shares (5.39) (5.39) (1.18) (7.16) (10.49)
Foreign exchange differences (0.16) 8.33 5.65 18.37 27.63
Investment and development fund 2,521.72 3,291.21 1,797.02 2,815.91 1,191.67
Retained profits 7,157.70 5,391.80 5,591.83 5,736.92 7,155.43
Non-controlling interest 119.96 231.35 237.39 497.79 490.23
TOTAL EQUITY 19,800.24 20,923.92 22,405.95 23,873.06 26,271.37
TOTAL OWNER'S EQUITY AND
25,770.14 27,478.18 29,378.66 34,667.32 37,366.11
LIABILITIES
Growth rate
Tangible fixed assets (PPE, net)
2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
rate w PPE
rate w PPE
d development fund at 9/2019: VND1,992b and constant for the next 5 years
2014 2015 2016 2017
CASH FLOWS FROM OPERATING
ACTIVITIES
Net Profit before tax 7,613.37 9,367.14 11,237.63 12,228.95
Change in non-cash items 539.74 619.34 532.89 541.22
Depreciation & Amortization 1,032.73 1,097.08 1,190.84 1,299.87
Unrealised foreign exchange (gains)/losses (8.40) 3.97 (1.32) 3.72
Losses on disposals of tangible fixed assets and
construction in progress 12.30 12.20 23.31 11.63
Dividends and interest income (498.73) (558.44) (660.18) (770.13)
Losses from other investing activities 18.36 18.04 - -
Share of profit in associates and jointly controlled
entities (59.89) (12.90) (16.48) (67.13)
Interest expense 39.58 31.28 (46.50) 29.44
Rate
% of corporate income tax (tax paid/ total tax amount) 99.12%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
101.82% 100.47%
Rate
Const
Const
Const
Const
Const
Change
Change
Change
Const
Const
Average growth rate 2.59%
Long-term debt
Annual Year of Portion in
Creditors Currency 12/31/2019
Interest Rate Maturity Total Debt
Cost of
Debt
Total Debt (Short-term borowings + Long-term borrowings) 5,474,454,243,084
Portion of short-term borrowings 97.37% 2.69%
Portion of Long-term borrowings 2.63% 4.16%
Cost Of Debt 31/12/2019 VND
Actual Long-term
4.33% 164,608,982,893
borrowings
4.16%
Actual short-term
3.52% 5,309,845,260,191
borrowings
6.50%
5.20%
5.23%
6.00%
4.57%
2.69%
Cost of Total
Debt
2.73%
Time period Date Index Level Price (Stock i) Market return (Monthly)
1 1/5/2015 544.5 96,000
2 2/2/2015 570.4 103,000 4.76%
3 3/2/2015 590.7 107,000 3.57%
4 4/1/2015 538.9 105,000 -8.77%
5 5/4/2015 545.1 106,000 1.14%
6 6/1/2015 575.0 106,000 5.49%
7 7/1/2015 591.5 114,000 2.87%
8 8/3/2015 609.5 119,000 3.04%
9 9/1/2015 562.3 99,500 -7.74%
10 10/1/2015 563.5 101,000 0.22%
11 11/2/2015 602.8 117,000 6.96%
12 12/1/2015 570.4 122,000 -5.37%
13 1/4/2016 574.4 126,000 0.70%
14 2/1/2016 540.6 119,000 -5.89%
15 3/1/2016 561.6 130,000 3.88%
16 4/1/2016 558.4 134,000 -0.56%
17 5/4/2016 599.1 142,000 7.28%
18 6/1/2016 619.9 141,000 3.47%
19 7/1/2016 640.3 143,000 3.30%
20 8/1/2016 648.4 155,000 1.26%
21 9/1/2016 669.2 154,000 3.21%
22 10/3/2016 683.1 140,500 2.07%
23 11/1/2016 676.6 141,900 -0.94%
24 12/1/2016 666.5 135,200 -1.49%
25 1/3/2017 672.0 126,700 0.82%
26 2/2/2017 703.2 133,000 4.64%
27 3/1/2017 709.5 130,800 0.90%
28 4/3/2017 722.4 144,300 1.81%
29 5/3/2017 719.5 148,300 -0.39%
30 6/1/2017 741.8 151,900 3.09%
31 7/3/2017 778.9 157,000 5.00%
32 8/1/2017 786.8 151,100 1.02%
33 9/1/2017 788.7 151,500 0.24%
34 10/2/2017 802.2 148,500 1.71%
35 11/1/2017 842.7 155,000 5.05%
36 12/1/2017 960.3 196,000 13.96%
37 1/2/2018 995.8 211,500 3.69%
38 2/1/2018 1,099.7 203,000 10.43%
39 3/1/2018 1,115.8 196,000 1.47%
40 4/2/2018 1,196.6 199,700 7.24%
41 5/2/2018 1,029.1 184,500 -14.00%
42 6/1/2018 992.9 168,200 -3.52%
43 7/2/2018 947.2 171,000 -4.60%
44 8/1/2018 952.8 166,900 0.59%
45 9/4/2018 975.9 156,700 2.43%
46 10/1/2018 1,012.9 136,300 3.79%
47 11/1/2018 908.0 114,300 -10.36%
48 12/3/2018 951.6 133,600 4.81%
49 2/1/2019 891.75 124,000 -6.29%
50 1/2/2019 908.67 135,000 1.90%
51 1/3/2019 979.63 141,400 7.81%
52 1/4/2019 988.53 138,600 0.91%
53 2/5/2019 978.5 130,000 -1.01%
54 3/6/2019 946.47 128,000 -3.27%
55 1/7/2019 965.61 125,000 2.02%
56 1/8/2019 997.39 124,200 3.29%
57 3/9/2019 979.36 124,000 -1.81%
58 1/10/2019 999.59 128,000 2.07%
59 1/11/2019 1015.59 132,400 1.60%
60 2/12/2019 959.31 118,300 -5.54%
Stock (i) return (monthly)
7.29%
3.88%
-1.87%
0.95%
0.00%
7.55%
4.39%
-16.39%
1.51%
15.84%
4.27%
3.28%
-5.56%
9.24%
3.08% SUMMARY OUTPUT
5.97%
-0.70% Regression Statistics
1.42% Multiple R 0.6142308925
8.39% R Square 0.3772795893
-0.65% Adjusted R Square 0.3663546698
-8.77% Standard Error 0.0389726637
1.00% Observations 59
-4.72%
-6.29% ANOVA
4.97% df SS
-1.65% Regression 1 0.052452385507
10.32% Residual 57 0.086575505208
2.77% Total 58 0.139027890716
2.43%
3.36% Coefficients Standard Error
-3.76% Intercept 0.0083293967 0.005091751281
0.26% X Variable 1 0.4000845188 0.068081515401
-1.98%
4.38% Beta 0.4000845188
26.45%
7.91%
-4.02%
-3.45%
1.89%
-7.61%
-8.83%
1.66%
-2.40%
-6.11%
-13.02%
-16.14%
16.89%
-7.19%
8.87%
4.74%
-1.98%
-6.20%
-1.54%
-2.34%
-0.64%
-0.16%
3.23%
3.44%
-10.65%
MS F Significance F
0.052452 34.53386 2.2892704E-07
0.001519
t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
1.635861 0.107379 -0.0018666594 0.0185254528 -0.0018666594 0.0185254528
5.876551 2.289E-07 0.26375363582 0.5364154018 0.2637536358 0.5364154018
2020F 2021F 2022F
Cost of debt (before tax) 2.73%
Cost of equity (CAPM) 5.74%
Beta 0.40
VN 10y bond 3.10%
Market risk premium 6.59%
Market stock price (in VND) 173,788
Market value of Equity 302,631 302,631 302,631
Market value of debt 1,368 1,552 2,425
Total Value of Debt+ equity 303,998 304,182 305,055
WACC 5.721% 5.719% 5.709%
1,741,377,694
15.75%
FCFF 2018 2019F
EBIT*(1-Tax rate) #VALUE!
EBIT 12,182.46
Tax rate Tax rate
Changes in NCC 1,350.45
Changes in WC (1,971.16)
CAPEX Investment (2,888.07)
FCFF #VALUE!