Research Methods and Presentation (ECEg4341)

Chapter Four

Systems and Scientific Modeling

19 June 2018 Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE

 System
2

 A system
 is an entity (usually non isolated) or
 an assemblage of interacting or interdependent entities (real or abstract)
forming an integrated whole
 May have
 One or more inputs and
 One or more recognizable outputs.
 The input (independent variable) and outputs (dependent variable)
associated to the system may be related with known or unknown
(yet to be determined) rules.
 a system may be subjected to variables of external nature
(exogenous)
 Exogenous variables are undesired disturbances
 The system itself may be described using system variables
(endogenous) or as usually called system parameters
Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018
 System…
3 External Factors

Inputs System Outputs

 Confounding variables are variables with a significant effect on the

dependent variable
 the researcher may fail to control or eliminate confounding variables
 The key is to identify possible confounding variables and somehow try to
eliminate or control them
 Variable
 A concept which can take on different quantitative values
 Qualitative phenomena (or the attributes):
 quantified on the basis of the presence or absence of the concerning
attribute(s)

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Description of System Variable
4

1. Continuous/Discrete Variables

 Continuous Variable: Phenomena which can take on

quantitatively different values even in decimal points.
 It can assume any numerical value within a specific range
 Example Resistance of semiconductor

 Discrete variables: A variable for which the individual values

fall on the scale only with distinct gaps
 Can be only expressed in integer values
 Example: no of children

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Description of System Variable…
5

2. Dependent and independent variables:

 Dependent Variables: a variable that depends upon or is a consequence
of the other variable
 Independent variable: a variable that is antecedent to the dependent
variable
 For instance
 if we say that height depends upon age
 height is a dependent variable and
 age is an independent variable
3. Extraneous/Confounding variable:
 Independent variables that are not related to the purpose of the study,
but may affect the dependent variable
 Whatever effect is noticed on dependent variable as a result of
extraneous variable(s) is technically described as an ‘experimental error’.

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Important Terms
6

 Control: design the study minimizing the effects of

extraneous independent variables.
 Important characteristic of a good research design is to
minimize the influence or effect of extraneous variable(s)
 Confounded relationship:
 When the dependent variable is not free from the
influence of extraneous variable(s) it results in
confounded relationship
 the relationship between the dependent and
independent variables is said to be confounded by an
extraneous variable(s).

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Characterization/Types of systems
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 Continuous: a continuous system reacts/responds to

inputs continuously in time, position and/or other
continuous variables.
 Discrete: a discrete system reacts to inputs only
discretely in time, position and/or other discrete
variable. The is response occurs only at discrete instants
of time, position and/or other variables.
 Time invariant (TI): a TI system has parameters or
characteristics that do not change with time.
 Time variant(TV): a TV system has at least one
parameter or characteristic that changes with time.

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Characterization/Types of systems…
8
 Homogenous: the properties or characteristics of a homogenous system
component are identical in all locations, times and conditions.
 As regards to population study of any type, taking sample from such homogeneity
becomes easier. (Stationarity)
 Non homogenous: the properties or characteristics of a non-homogenous
system component are not identical in all locations, time and conditions.
 As regards to population study of any type, taking sample from such non-homogeneity
requires a thoughtful strategy. (Non-stationarity)
 Dynamic: In a dynamic system, the present output is dependent not only on
the present input values but also on the past values represented as initial
conditions
 a dynamic system is said to have memory and thus has associated with it initial
conditions.
 The initial conditions are due to inherent inertial components which are characteristic of
a dynamic system.

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Characterization/Types of systems…
9

 Static: In a static system, the present output is dependent only on the

present input values and not on the past values.
 there are no initial conditions associated to a static system.
 A static system may also be called a zero order system
 Linear: a system is said to be linear if it satisfies the superposition principle.
 That is, if for input x1 it generates an output y1, and for input x2 it generates
an output y2, etc, then for input x1+x2+… the output becomes y1+y2+…
 Non-linear: a system is said to be non- linear if it doesn’t satisfy the
superposition principle.
 Deterministic: for an identical input/s at different instants of time (but with
identical initial conditions for dynamic systems) the system generates
identical output/s at the respective time instants.
 A deterministic model is one in which every set of variable states is uniquely
determined by parameters in the model and by sets of previous states of these
variables.
 Deterministic models perform the same way for a given set of initial conditions.

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Characterization/Types of systems…
10

 Non-deterministic: for an identical input/s at different instants of time (but with

identical initial conditions for dynamic systems) the system generates non-identical
(non-unique) output/s [or more specifically random outputs] at the respective time
instants.
 The input and output (as well as the degree of variation of the output) can only be expressed
and determined probabilistically and/or statistically governed by a certain probability
distribution.
 Causal: a system is said to be causal if it will have output if and only if after
application of input.
 Non-causal: If with no input a system has an output then it is said to be non-causal.
 Stable: a system is said to be stable if for a finite input it will have a finite output.
 Unstable: a system is said to be unstable if for a finite input it may have an infinite
output.
 Note: a given system may be characterized by a number of (if not all) the above.

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Modeling: Scientific model
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 Scientific modeling is the process of generating

 abstract
 conceptual
 graphicaland/or
 mathematical model/description

 Scientific modeling is
 supposed to sufficiently (accurately but simplistically)
represent some or most realm of a physical/abstract
phenomenon/system.

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Reasons for Modeling and Simulation
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 We cannot understand how all the various parts of the system

interact and add up to the whole
 We cannot imagine all the possibilities that the real system could
exhibit
 We cannot foresee the full effects of cascading and/or layering
upon of events with our limited mental models
 We cannot foresee novel events that our mental models cannot even
imagine
 As an exercise in “thought space” to gain insights into key variables
and their causes and effects
 To construct reasonable arguments as to why events can or cannot
occur based on the model
 We model to make qualitative or quantitative predictions about the
future

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 The process of generating a model
13

 Modeling refers to the process of generating a model

as a conceptual representation of some phenomenon.
 Modeling requires selecting and identifying relevant
aspects of a situation in the real world.
 Typically a model will refer only to some aspects of the
phenomenon in question.
 Two models of the same phenomenon may be
essentially different
 Such differences may be due to
 differing requirements of the model's end users, or
 conceptual or aesthetic differences among the modelers and
 contingent decisions made during the modeling process.

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 The process of evaluating a model
14

 A model is evaluated first and foremost by its

consistency to empirical data
 Any model inconsistent with reproducible observations must
be modified or rejected.
 One way to modify the model is by restricting the domain
over which it is credited with having high validity
 A case in point is Newtonian physics,
 highly useful
 But is domain specific
 Invalid for the very small, the very fast, and the very massive
phenomena of the universe

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 The process of evaluating a model…
15

 A fit to empirical data alone is not sufficient for a

model to be accepted as valid
 Other factors important in evaluating a model include:
 Ability to explain past observations
 Ability to predict future observations
 Cost of use, especially in combination with other models
 Refutability, enabling estimation of the degree of
confidence in the model
 Simplicity, or even aesthetic appeal

 One may attempt to quantify the evaluation of a model

using a utility function

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 The process of evaluating a model…
16

Compare Model to
Reality
Initial Model

Real Compare Revised First Revision of

System Model to Reality Model

Second
Compare 2nd Revised Revision of
Model to Reality Model

Iterative process of calibrating a model

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Simulation and Visualization
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 For the scientist, a model is also a way in which the

human thought processes can be amplified
 For instance, models that are rendered in software allow
scientists to leverage computational power to simulate,
visualize, manipulate and gain intuition about the entity,
phenomenon, or process being represented
 Such computer models are called in silico(an expression used to
mean "performed on computer or via computer simulation“)
 Other types of scientific model may be in vivo (living
models, such as laboratory rats)
 in vitro (in glassware, such as tissue culture) and a lot more
types in other disciplines such as pilot plants

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Simulation and Visualization: Simulation
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 A simulation is the implementation of a model

 A steady state simulation provides information about the
system at a specific instant in time usually at equilibrium
 A dynamic simulation provides information over time
 A simulation brings a model to life and shows how a
particular object or phenomenon will behave
 Simulation can be useful for
 Testing
 Analysis or
 training
 This is true for cases where real-world systems or concepts can be
represented by models

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Simulation and Visualization: Visualization
19

 Visualization:- is any technique for creating images, diagrams, or

animations to communicate a message.
 Visualization through visual imagery has been an effective way to
communicate both abstract and concrete ideas since the dawn of man.
 Examples
 Cave paintings
 Egyptian hieroglyphs
 Greek geometry
 Some of computational, simulation and visualization tools in science
and engineering are:
 MATLAB,  MultiSim
 MathCAD,
 Proteus
 Mathematica
 LabView of NI  NS or Packet Tracer

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Mathematical Model
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 A mathematical model is a description of a system using

mathematical language
 A mathematical model relates the input variables and output
variables of a system representing a real world phenomenon in
order to describe it in the form of one or a set of equations
 The process of developing a mathematical model is
termed mathematical modeling.
 Mathematical models are used
 In the natural sciences (such as physics, biology, earth science,
meteorology)
 In engineering disciplines
 in the social sciences (such as economics, psychology, sociology and
political science)

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Mathematical Model…
21

 Physicists, engineers, statisticians, operations research

analysts and economists use mathematical models
most extensively
 Mathematical models can take many forms
 dynamical systems
 statistical models
 differential equations, or
 game theoretic models

 These and other types of models can overlap, with a

given model involving a variety of abstract structures.

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Mathematical Model…
22

 Mathematical models can be divided into either

analytical models or numerical models.
 An analytical model is a mathematical model that has a
closed form expression
 the output and input variables can be related in such a way that
the two sets of variables are disassociated from themselves or
expressed as a mathematical analytic function.
 On the other hand, a numerical model is a mathematical
model that uses some sort of numerical time-stepping
procedure to obtain the models behavior over time.
 Eg recursive methods

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Purpose of Mathematical Model
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 The purpose of the mathematical model of the system may be

at least either of the following:
 Description:
 to sufficiently (accurately but simply) describe the characteristics of
the real world physical phenomenon described as the model when
subjected to input as well as exogenous variables
 (Inferential)
 to explore how the system parameters can be varied/manipulated in
order to obtain an optimal performance (response) for a given set of
input variables and a known set of external factors.
 Studying predictive (interpolating and extrapolating) accuracy is also
another purpose of this category.
 Description and performance optimization are, two important
purposes of a mathematical model of a real world physical or
abstract system

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Empirical Modeling
24

 Empirical models are those (mathematical or graphical

expressions) that are based entirely on data.
 The first step in deriving an empirical models is to get
the scatter-plot of the data
 Interaction between data and models occurs in a
number of ways:
 Data are needed to suggest a right model.
 The models called empirical are based entirely on data. [training
data]
 Data are needed to estimate the values of the parameters
appearing in a model.
 This is sometimes called calibrating a model.
 Data are needed to test a model. [verification/testing data]

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Empirical Modeling..
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 It happens very often that the data given at the

beginning is not sufficient for making a good model
 In these cases further data collection is needed
 Considering the following questions might be useful
 What is the relevant data? Exactly what kind of data is
needed?
 How can the relevant data be obtained?

 In what form do you need the data?

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018

 Techniques for Empirical Modeling
26

 Once the data is collected, you need to decide on the

techniques you want to use in order to find an appropriate
model.
 There are two major groups of techniques based on two
different ideas
 Interpolation- finding a function that contains all the data points.
 Model fitting - finding a function that is as close as possible to
containing all the data points. Such function is also called a
regression curve.
 Sometimes you would need to combine these methods since
 the interpolation curve might be too complex and
 the best fit model might not be sufficiently accurate.

Haramaya Institute of Technology, ECE 19 June 2018