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4.4 plS%h fldgia (Cyclical Shares) wjYH m%;s,dN wkqmd;fha ;=kajk fldgi jkafka wjod-
kï wêlhhs (Compensation for Uncertainty in Future Cash
Flows). tkï wkd.; uqo,a m%jdyj, wúksYaÑ;;djhka fjkqfj-
idudkH wd¾Ól m%jK;djhkag fukau jHdmdßl pl%hkag
wkql+,j l%shdlrkq ,nk fldgia fuu ldKavhg we;=<;a l< ka wdfhdaclhska wfmalaId lrk jkaoshhs. wjodkï wêlh
yelsh. we;eïúg ld,.=Ksl yd foaY.=Ksl úm¾hdihkao fï wdfhdaclhdf.ka wdfhdaclhdg fjkiajk w;r ;u ;ukaf.a
wjodkï ord .ekSfï yelshdj wkqj fuh ;SrKh lrkq ,nhs.
03 fldgia f;dard .eksu iy ;SrK .eksu
6.0 wdfhdack ixfrdaOl (Investment Constraints) igyka lrkq ,nhs. wod, wdfhdack mrud¾: iy wNs,dIhka
mokï lr.ksñka fuu ,shú,a, ilia lr.kq ,nhs.
wdfhdack m%;sm;a;s m%ldYhla ilid .kakd úgoS wdfhdaclhdg wdfhdack m%;sm;a;s m%ldYh u.ska wdfhdack l%shdud¾. ms<sn|
mj;sk iSudldß idOl ms<sn|jo wjOdkh fhduq lsßu jeo.;a fomd¾Yjhgu b;d meyeos,s wjfndaOhla ,nd .; yelsh.
fõ. wdfhdack m%ldYhla ieliSfïoS i,ld ne,sh hq;=
wdfhdack ixfrdaOl lsysmhla my; mßos oelaúh yelsh. 8.0 uqof,a ld, w.h (Time Value of Money)
6.1 øjYS,;d (Liquidity) ixfrdaOlh iq/l=ïm;a w.h lsÍfïoS wkq.ukh lrkq ,nk l%shdj,sh kï,
wod, iq/l=ïm; úiska wkd.;fhaoS ,nd fok uqo,a m%jdyj,
øjYS,;dj hkq j;alï fldmuK flá ld,hlska uqo,a njg m;a j¾;udk jákdlu fiùuls. tkï tu uqo,a m%jdy j, ^wod,
lr .; yelso hkakhs. fuysoS fuu ixfrdaOlh u.ska wdfhda- jákdlu& j¾;udk w.h m%j¾;k fjf<|m< ñ, iu`. ixika-
clhskaf.a øjYS,;d wfmalaIdjka ms,sn| úuihs. ksoiqkla f,i okh lsÍula isÿ lrkq ,nhs. tu.ska wod, iq/l=ïm;a ñ,oS .ka-
wdfhdaclhl= bosß ld,fhaoS isÿ lsÍug wfmalaIs; ñ,oS .ekSula kjdo keoao hkak ;SrKh lrkq ,nhs. fuysoS wkd.; uqo,a m%jd-
i|yd ^Wod: fudag¾ r:hla& remsh,a ,laI 10la fjkalr ;enqj- y j, j¾;udk w.h ;SrKh lsÍfïoS uqof,a ld, w.h hkak
fyd;a tu uqo, fjk;a M,odhS lghq;a;lg wod, ld,h ;=<oS b;d by< jeo.;alula .kq ,nhs. tmuKla fkdj uQ,H l<uKd
fhoùug fkdyels fõ. wdfhdaclhska úiska ;ukaf.a øjYS,;d lrKh yd ne`ÿk iEu ;SrKhloSu wjodku yd fuu uqof,a ld,
wjYH;djhkag kshñ; ld, mrdihka ksjeros f,i kshu lr w.h hkak jeo.;a l%shdj,shla bgq lrkq ,nhs. uqof,a ld, w.h
.; hq;=h. hkq wo ,efnk uqo,a m%udKhka iy wkd.;fha ,efnk uqo,a
m%udKhka iudk fkdùuhs. ksoiqkla f,i wo ,efnk re. 1,000
6.2 ld, iSud (Timing) ixfrdaOlh iy ;j;a j¾Ihlg miqj ,efnk re.1,000 w;r iudklula fkd
ue;. uqo,auh jYfhka fuu ixLHd folu tlu w.hla .kq
wdfhdaclhskag bosß ld, j,oS úúO jQ uQ,H wjYH;d bIaG lr ,enqjo wo ,efnk re.1,000 j¾Ihlg miqj ,efnk re.1,000 g
.ekSfï jqjukdj mj;’. ;u wjYH;d bIaG lr .ekSu i|yd jvd jákdlñka jeäh. fuys ir, woyi jkafka lsishï uqo,la
wdfhdaclhska ksYaÑ; ld, iSudjka i,l=Kq lrkq ,nhs. fuu wkd.f;a oskloS ,efnkjg jvd wo osk ,eîu jdis iy.; njhs.
ld, ;SrKhka i,l=Kq lr .ekSfïoS wdfhdaclhska úiska oeßh fuu iajNdjh mokï lrf.k ´kEu wdfhdaclfhl= wkd.;fha
yels wjodkuo ie,ls,a,g .kS oS¾> ld,Sk wdfhdack oelau- ,efnk uqo,a m%jdyhlg jvd wo osk ,efnk uqo,a m%jdyhka
la we;s mqoa.,hskag wjodku ord .ekSfï jeä yelshdjla we;. i|yd jvd jeä leue;a;la olajhs. fufia jvd jeä leue;a;la
thg fya;=j kï wod, ld,fhaoS isÿjk w,dNhla whlr .ekSu olajkq ,nkafka uqof,a ;sfnk ld, jákdlu fya;=fjks.
g Tjqkag os.= ld,hla we;. kuq;a flá ld,hlska m%;s,dN
wfmalaId lrk wdfhdaclfhl=f.a ;;a;ajh óg jvd fjkia fõ. fï wdldrhg wdfhdaclhska wo ,efnk uqo,g jvd jeä leue;a;la
Tyqg wod, ld,h ;=<oS isÿjk w,dNhka whlr .ekSug oelaùug uQ,sl jk fya;= lsysmhla my; mßos oelaúh yel.
m%udKj;a ld,hla fkd;sìh yel. fuu ksid wdfhdaclhska ;u
ld, mrdi iSudjka ms,sn|j wjOdkh fhduq l< hq;=h. 1. WoaOukh ,QÀDWLRQ
fï wkqj j¾;udk uqo,a m%jdyhka iy wkd.; uqo,a m%jdyh- wkd.; w.h re.1,102.50 fõ.
ka w;r iïnkaO;djh fmd,S wkqmd;h u.ska we;slrkq ,nhs.
fmd,S wkqmd; u.ska j¾;udk uqo,a m%jdyhka iy wkd.; uqo,a by; iólrKfha fhfok (1+i)n hkak wkd.; jákdlï fmd,S
m%jdyhka ys w.h ke;fyd;a ta flfrys olajk jrKh iudk idOlh f,i y`ÿkd .; yels w;r fï i|yd jk w.hka
lrkq ,nhs. úúO ld, i|yd jk (úúO fmd,S wkqmd; j,g wod,j&
.Ks; j.= Ndú;fhkao ,nd .; yel’ fndfyda uQ,H l<uKdl-
uqof,a ld, w.h my; f,i j¾. lr oelaúh yelsh. rK .%ka: j, weuqKqula f,i fuu j.= bosßm;a lr we;. my;
oelafjkafka tjeks Wmqgd .ekSuls.
uqof,a ld, jákdlu
Time Value of Money j.=j 1- ;ks uqo,a m%jdyhla i|yd wkd.; jákdlï j.=j
= 1,000 i
wdfhdaclfhla re.2,000 uqo,la 10]l fmd,S wkqmd;hla hgf;a
j¾I 2l ld,hla i|yd ;ekam;a lrkq ,nhs. fmd,sh w¾O jd¾Is- (1.1)5-1
lj .Kkh lrkq ,nhs. i
= 1,000
FVn = PV(1+i/m)nm
(0.61057)-1
fuys m hkq fmd,S f.jkq ,nk jdr .Kkhs. = 1,000 i
lsishï ksYaÑ; ld, iSudjla ;=, iEu j¾Ihlu ksYaÑ; uqo,a fuysoSo .Ks; j.=j wdY%fhka ^idudkH jd¾Islhla i|yd wkd.;
m%udKhla ;ekam;a lsÍu fyda ,nd .ekSu jd¾Islhla f,i jákdlï j.=j
y`ÿkd.; yelsh. fuysoS oelsh yels úfYaIs; ,laIKhla jkqfha,
(1+i)n-1
iEu ld, iSudjloSu isÿjk iudk uqo,a m%jdyhka ,eîu fyda w.h ,nd .; yel. tuksid .Ks; j.= mßYS,kh
i
f.ùuhs. fuh wLKavj kshu lr .kakd ld,hla i|yd isÿlrkq
,nhs.fuysoS wod, uqo,a m%jdyhka jd¾Islj, w¾O jd¾Islj fukau fuu .Kkh lsÍu myiq lrkq ,nhs.
udisl jQjo úh yel. ksoiqkla f,i wdfhdaclfhl= úiska wrUk
,o Okfhdack .sKqul iEu uilu re.1,000 uqo,la ;ekam;a
j.=j 2 - jd¾Islhla i|yd wkd.; jákdlï j.=j
lsÍu oelaúh yelsh.
úúO iajrEmfha jd¾Islhka oelsh yels w;r fuysoS i,ld n,kq wod, ld,h fmd,S wkqmd;
,nkafka idudkH jd¾Islhla (Ordinary Annuity) iy ys`. ysá (n)
5% 6% 10% 15%
jd¾Islhl (Annuity Due) wkd.; w.h .Kkh lsÍu muKs.
1 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
9.2.1 idudkH jd¾Isl wkd.; jákdlu 2 2.050 2.060 2.100 2.150
(Future Value of an Ordinary Annuity) 3 3.153 3.184 3.310 3.473
4 4.310 4.375 4.641 4.993
wod, jd¾Islhka ,eîu fyda f.ùu iEu ld, mßÉfÊohla
5 5.526 5.637 6.105 6.742
wjidkfhaoS isÿ jkafka kï th idudkH jd¾Islhla f,i ks¾-
jpkh l< yelsh. ksoiqkla f,i iEu uilu w. lrkq ,nk 6 6.802 6.975 7.716 8.754
Kh jdßlhla ke;fyd;a ys`. fhdack ;ekam;=jla oelaúh yel. 7 8.142 8.394 9.487 11.067
idudkH jd¾Islhl wkd.; jákdlu my; iólrKh wY%fhka 8 9.549 9.897 11.436 13.727
.Kkh l< yelsh. 9 11.027 11.491 13.579 16.786
10 12.578 13.181 15.937 20.304
FVAn =A [ (1+i)n-1
i
]
FVA = jd¾Islfha wkd.; jákdlu
A = jd¾Islh
[ (1.1)0.1-1 ] (1.1)
5
=1,000
= re. 7,835.00
=1,000 [ (1.61051)-1
0.1
] (1.1) fuysoSo, j¾;udk jÜgï idOlh (1/(1+i)n) .Ks; j.= wdY%fhka
myiqfjka ,nd .; yelsh.
=1,000(6.1051)(1.1)
= re. 6,715.61
0.3791 1
=10,000 [ [ 1-
0.1 = 10,000 (1+i)n (1.1)
10%
=10,000(3.7910)
1- 0.6209
=re. 37,910.00 = 10,000 (1.1)
0.1
= re. 41,701.00
11.1 Y=kH j¾Ok udos,sh (Zero Growth Model)
fï wdldrhg uQ,sl jYfhka uqof,a ld, jákdlu wkd.; fuysoS ,dNdxY j, lsisÿ j¾Okhla fkdue;s nj Wml,amkh
yd j¾;udk jákdlï hgf;a tla uqo,a m%jdyhla iy jd¾Is- lrhs. tkï ,dNdxY j¾Okh Y=kH fõ. wdfhdaclhskag ;u uq¨
lhla f,i .Kkh lsÍfï yelshdj mj;S. fuysoS .Kkh wdfhdað; ld,h i|ydu ,efnkqfha tlu ,dNdxY m%udKhl’.
lsÍï j,g wod, .Ks; j.= ke;fyd;a jÜgï j.= Ndú;h wdfhda- my; iólrKh weiqßka ysñlï fldgil j¾;udk w.h Y=kH
clhskf.a ld¾h jvd;a myiq lrjhs. j¾Ok udos,sh weiqßka .Kkh l< yelsh.
= re.14.00 fuh ;=kajk j¾IfhaoS ;sfnk ñ,hs. fuh j¾;udk w.h ,nd
.ekSu i|yd kej;;a wod, jÜgï idOlfhka jÜgï l, hq;=h
^j¾I 3la miqmig .ekSu&
ysñlï fldgil j¾;udk w.h re.14ls.
P0 82.08
fuu .Kkh lsÍfïoS my; Wml,amkhka isÿ lrkq ,nhs. P0 = = = re.58.42
(1+Ke)3 (1.12)3
1. m%d.aOkfha msßjeh (Ke) iEu úgu j¾Ok wkqmd;hg (g) fï wkqj fldgil j¾;udk jákdlu = re.6.32 + re.58.42
jvd jeä nj Ke>g = re.64.74
2. j¾;udk ,dNdxYh Y=kH fkdjk nj D0> 0 12.0 j¾Ok wkqmd;h (Growth Rate)
3. m%d.aOkfha msßjeh (Ke) iy j¾Ok wkqmd;h (g) w;r ksh;
j¾Ok wkqmd;h l%u lsysmhlg .Kkh l< yels w;r, ysñlu
iïnkaOhla mj;sk nj;a th wkka;h olajd .uka lrk nj.
u; m%;s,dN wkqmd;h wdY%fhka lrkq ,nk .Kkh lsÍu jvd;a
m%p,s; l%uh fõ. fï i|yd my; iólrKh fhdod .kS.
11.3 iqmsß j¾Ok udos,sh (Supernormal Growth Model)
j¾Ok wkqmd;h = r|jd .ekSfï wkqmd;h (Retention Rate) x
by; l%u fol ;=<u mj;sk wvqmdvq y`ÿkd .ksñka m%dfhda.s
ysñlï m%d.aOkh u; m%;s,dN (Return on Equity) wkqmd;h
;;a;ajhkag jvd;a ióm fjñka fuu l%uh y`ÿkajd oS we;.
fuysoS ,dNdxY tlu m%;sY;hlska wkka;h olajd j¾Okh jkjd
xyz iud.u iEu j¾Ihlu bmehqï j,ska 60]la r|jd .kq ,nhs.
hkak fjkqjg, úúO m%;sY; j,ska j¾Okh fõ. hehs Wml,am-
ysñlï m%d.aOkh u; m%;s,dN wkqmd;h 12]kï j¾Ok wkqmd;h
kh lrkq ,nhs. ksoiqkla f,i wdrïNfhaoS by< w.hlska
fidhkak
,dNdxY j¾Okh úh yels w;r miqj my< w.hlska ,dNdxY
j¾Okh úh yel.
j¾Ok wkqmd;h = 60% x 12%
=7.2%
ksoiqkla f,i wdfhdaclfhl= xyz iud.fï fldgia ñ,oS
.ekSu ms<sn|j wjOdkh fhduq lrñka isáhs. wod, iud.u
j¾;udkfha re.2l ,dNdxYhla f.jkq ,nk w;r bosß j¾I
13.0 isria m%fõYh (Top Down Analysis)
3l ld,hla i|yd tys 15] j¾Okhla fmkakqï lrkq ,nk w;r
wdfhdack iy iq/l=ïm;a w.h lsÍfïoS isria m%fõYh b;d
bka miq wkka;h olajd 8]l wLKav j¾Okhla mqfrdal:kh
jeo.;a ld¾hNdrhla bgqlrkq ,nhs. isria m%fõYfhaoS wd¾:slh
lrkq ,nhs. wdfhdaclhdf.a wfmalaIs; m%;s,dN wkqmd;h 12]
(Economy) úYaf,aIKh lsÍu, wod, l¾udka;h (Relevant Indus-
kï, fldgil j¾;udk ñ, fidhkak.
try) úYaf,aIKh lsÍu iy iud.ï (Companies) úYaf,aIKh f,i
wjia:d lsysmhla hgf;a isÿ lrkq ,nhs. fuh mq¿,a wjia:djl
isg b;d úfYaIs; wjia:djla lrd .uka lrk fyhska fuh isria
úYaf,aIKh (Top Down Analysis) f,i y`ÿkajkq ,efí. my;
rEm igyk u.ska fuh jvd;a meyeos,s fõ.
wd¾:sl úYaf,aIKh
iud.ï
úYaf,aIKh
l¾udka; úYaf,aIKh
700
fldgil fmd;a w.h = 50 = re.14
24
P/BV = = 1.71
14