MATH03 | Statistics and Probability

MATHEMATICS and ABM CLUSTER

SCHOOL YEAR 2021 - 2022

Statistics and Probability

MATH03
Course Outcome 4
Quarter 04

Prepared by:
Engr. Diamante, Lenolan L.
Revised by:
Ipapo, Redwaynne Jester T.

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NAME: ____________________________________ TEACHER: ________________________

YEAR AND SECTION: _______________________ SCHEDULE: _______________________

Lesson Estimation of Parameters

3
(Point Estimation)

COURSE OUTCOME BULLETIN

Objective: Discuss and apply comprehensively the concepts of estimation of parameters and point
estimation.

Subject Matters:
Lesson 3. Estimation of Parameters (Point Estimation)
Lesson 3.1. Introduction to Estimation
Lesson 3.2. Point Estimator and Its Properties
Lesson 3.3 Point Estimation

Learning Competencies:
I. Apply the concepts of estimation of parameters and point estimation to real world
problems.

Evaluation:
Performance Task: PT4 to be deployed on Blackboard (Week 13)

Written Work: WW4 to be deployed on ALEKS (Week 12)

What do I know? (Pre-test)

Choose the letter of the correct answer for each item.

1. Which of the following refers to a value that is used to estimate an unknown population parameter?
a. Estimator c. Standard Deviation
b. Sample mean d. Parameter
2. Which of the following is the correct order for the process of estimation
I: Collect Information III: Assign value to the corresponding population parameter
II: Get a sample IV: Compute statistic
a. I, II, III, IV c. II, I, IV, III
b. II, III, IV, I d. I, III, II, IV

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3. Which of the following statements is true?

a. A point estimator gives a single number as an estimate of the unknown parameter value.
b. An interval estimator gives a range of possible values as an estimate of the unknown parameter
value.
c. Both a and b
d. None of the above
4. Which of the following is an unbiased estimator of the population mean?
1
a. 𝜇̂ = 𝑋1 c. 𝜇̂ = 2 (𝑋1 + 𝑋𝑛 )
b. 𝜇̂ = 𝑋̅ d. all of these
5. Which of the following is true about an efficient estimator?
a. Given two unbiased estimators of the same population parameter, the sampling distribution with
larger variance is more efficient.
b. All unbiased estimator are equally efficient estimator
c. Given two unbiased estimators of the same population parameter, the sampling distribution with
smaller variance is more efficient.
d. None of these
6. Given the following estimators for population mean, which of them is the most efficient?
1
a. 𝜇̂ = 𝑋1 c. 𝜇̂ = (𝑋1 + 𝑋𝑛 )
2
b. 𝜇̂ = 𝑋̅ d. none of these
7. When there is an outlier in the given data set, what is the best point estimate of the population mean
can be used?
a. 𝑋̅ c. Median
b. 𝜎𝑋̅ d. All of these
8. The following are properties of good point estimator except one. Which is it?
a. Unbiased
b. Inconsistent
c. Efficient
d. Resistant
9. A researcher uses the data of a sample of 10 College Faculty to estimate the mean age of College
Faculties in a university. Given the data below (in years), what is the best point estimate of the mean
age of College Faculties?
30, 45, 44, 36, 50, 48, 58, 32, 28, 32
a. 40.3 years c. 44 years
b. 36 years d. 43 years
10. From Question 9, if the population variance of ages of College faculties is 92, what is the standard
error of the point estimate?
a. 3.03 c. 30.67
b. 26.09 d. 3.20

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What is it?
I. Introduction to Estimation
Estimator is a statistic that specifies how to use the sample data to estimate an unknown
parameter of the population.

In inferential statistics, 𝝁 is called the true population mean and 𝒑 is called the true population
proportion. There are many other population parameters, such as the median, mode, variance,
and standard deviation.
Few examples of estimation are, (1) an auto company may want to estimate the mean fuel
consumption for a particular model of a car; (2) a manager may want to estimate the average
time taken by new employees to learn a job; (3) the PH Census Bureau may want to find the mean
housing expenditure per month incurred by households; and (4) a polling agency may want to
find the proportion or percentage of students who are in favor of our current system ineducation.
The value(s) assigned to a population parameter based on the value of a sample statistic is called
an estimate. The sample statistic used to estimate a population parameter is called an estimator.
The estimation procedure involves the following steps.
1. Select a sample.
2. Collect the required information from the members of the sample.
3. Calculate the value of the sample statistic.
4. Assign value(s) to the corresponding population parameter.
Remember, the procedures to be learned in this chapter assume that the sample taken is a
simple random sample. If the sample is not a simple random sample, then the procedures to be
used to estimate a population mean or proportion become more complex. These procedures are
outside the scope of our topics.
There are two types of estimates, point estimate and interval estimate.

II. Point Estimator and Its Properties

A point estimator gives a single number as an estimate of the unknown parameter value.

If we select a sample and compute the value of a sample statistic for this sample, then this value
gives the point estimate of the corresponding population parameter. Thus, the value computed
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for the sample mean, 𝑥̅ from a sample is a point estimate of the corresponding population mean,
𝝁. From the example mentioned earlier, suppose the PH Census takes a random sample of 10,000
households and determines that the mean housing expenditure per month (𝑥̅) for this sample is
20,000 php. Then, using 𝑥̅ as a point estimate of 𝜇, the Bureau can state that the mean housing
expenditure per month, 𝜇, for all households is about 20,000 php.
Therefore,
Point estimate of a population parameter = Value of the corresponding sample statisticBelow is
the list of common Point Estimators

Parameter Statistic
µ, population mean 𝝁 ̅
̂ = 𝑿, sample mean
𝝈𝟐 , population variance ̂𝟐 = 𝑺𝟐 , sample variance
𝝈
𝒑 , population proportion ̂ = 𝒙/𝒏 , sample proportion
𝒑

Properties of Point Estimator

1. BIASEDNESS/UNBIASEDNESS
A point estimator 𝜃̂ is said to be unbiased for the parameter 𝜃 if and only if 𝐸(𝜃̂ ) = 𝜃. If the
equality does not hold, 𝜃̂ is said to be a biased estimator of 𝜃, with 𝐵(𝜃̂) = 𝐸(𝜃̂) − 𝜃.
Example
1. Suppose that 𝑿𝟏 , 𝑿𝟐 , … , 𝑿𝟓 denotes a random sample from some population with 𝑬(𝑿𝒊 ) =
𝝁 and 𝑽(𝑿𝒊 ) = 𝝈𝟐 , 𝒊 = 𝟏, 𝟐, … 𝟓. The following are suggested as estimators for 𝝁.
𝝁
̂𝟏 = 𝑿𝟏
𝟏
𝝁
̂𝟐 = (𝑿 + 𝑿𝟓 )
𝟐 𝟏
𝟏
𝝁
̂𝟑 = (𝑿𝟏 + 𝟐𝑿𝟓 )
𝟐
𝝁
̂𝟒 = 𝑿̅
Which estimator would you use and why?

Solution:
The first property of Point Estimator is about the mean, therefore let us get the Expected Value
of each suggested estimator.

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According to the problem,

𝐸(𝑋𝑖 ) = 𝜇
For 𝝁
̂𝟏 = 𝑿𝟏 ,
𝜇
̂1 = 𝑋1
𝐸(𝜇
̂)
1 = 𝐸(𝑋1 )

𝐸(𝜇
̂)
1 =𝜇

𝟏
For 𝝁
̂𝟐 = 𝟐 (𝑿𝟏 + 𝑿𝟓 )
1
𝜇
̂2 = (𝑋1 + 𝑋5 )
2
1
𝐸(𝜇2 = 𝐸 [ (𝑋1 + 𝑋5 )]
̂)
2
1
𝐸(𝜇2 = [𝐸(𝑋1 ) + 𝐸(𝑋5 )]
̂)
2
1
𝐸(𝜇2 = (𝜇 + 𝜇)
̂)
2
1
𝐸(𝜇2 = (2𝜇)
̂)
2
𝐸(𝜇
̂)
2 =𝜇

1
For 𝜇
̂3 = 2 (𝑋1 + 2𝑋5 )
1
𝜇
̂3 = (𝑋 + 2𝑋5 )
2 1
1
𝐸(𝜇̂)3 = 𝐸 [ (𝑋1 + 2𝑋5 )]
2
1
𝐸(𝜇
̂)3 = [𝐸(𝑋1 ) + 𝐸(2𝑋5 )]
2
1
𝐸(𝜇
̂)3 = [𝐸(𝑋1 ) + 2𝐸(𝑋5 )]
2
1
𝐸(𝜇
̂)3 = (𝜇 + 2𝜇)
2
1
𝐸(𝜇̂)3 = (3𝜇)
2
3
𝐸(𝜇 ̂)3 = 𝜇
2
For 𝜇̂ 3 = 𝑋̅
𝐸(𝜇
̂) ̅
4 = 𝐸(𝑋 )
𝐸(𝜇 ̂)
4 = 𝜇

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Which is the best point estimator? Note: The best Point Estimator is the closest to the mean.

𝐸(𝜇
̂)
1 =𝜇

𝐸(𝜇
̂)2 =𝜇

3
𝐸(𝜇
̂)3 = 𝜇
2
𝐸(𝜇
̂)4 =𝜇

With this, we can see that we have three (3) point estimators that gives us the population mean
as the result. So, the question is, which is the best? It will be hard for us to determine which is
which with the first property of point estimator alone, let us move with the second property.

2. EFFICIENCY OR PRECISION
2. If 𝛩̂1 and 𝛩̂2 are two unbiased estimators of the same population parameter 𝜃, we want to
choose the estimator whose sampling distribution has the smaller variance. Hence, if 𝜎 2 𝜃̂1 <
𝜎 2 𝜃̂ , we say that 𝛩̂1is a more efficient estimator of 𝜃 than 𝛩̂2 .
2

Now, the second property of point estimator points us out to the variance. From the previous
problem, since we have three unbiased estimators, let us use the second property to them and
find out which is the best point estimator.

Solution:
According to the problem,
𝑉(𝑋𝑖 ) = 𝜎 2
Let us now consider the three unbiased estimators,

For 𝜇
̂1 = 𝑋1
𝑉(𝜇
̂)
1 = 𝑉(𝑋1 )
2
𝑉(𝜇
̂)
1 =𝜎
1
For 𝜇̂2 = 2 (𝑋1 + 𝑋5 )
1
𝜇
̂2 = (𝑋1 + 𝑋5 )
2
𝑉(𝑋𝑖 ) = 𝜎 2
1
𝑉(𝜇2 = 𝑉 [ (𝑋1 + 𝑋5 )]
̂)
2
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1 2
𝑉(𝜇
̂)
2 = ( ) [𝑉(𝑋1 + 𝑋5 )]
2
1
𝑉(𝜇2 = [𝑉(𝑋1 ) + 𝑉(𝑋5 )]
̂)
4
1 2 2
𝑉(𝜇2 = (𝜎 + 𝜎 )
̂)
4
1 2
𝑉(𝜇2 = (2𝜎 )
̂)
4
1 2
𝑉(𝜇̂)
2 = 𝜎
2
̂4 = 𝑋̅
For 𝜇
𝑉(𝑋𝑖 ) = 𝜎 2
𝑉(𝜇
̂) ̅
4 = 𝑉(𝑋 )

𝜎2
𝑉(𝜇
̂)4 =
5
Which estimator would you use and why? Note: If 𝝈𝟐𝜽𝟏 < 𝝈𝟐𝜽𝟐 , we say that 𝜽𝟏 is a more efficient
estimator of 𝜽 than 𝜽𝟐 .

2
𝑉(𝜇
̂)
1 =𝜎

1 2
𝑉(𝜇
̂)
2 = 𝜎
2
𝜎2
𝑉(𝜇
̂)
4 =
5

3. RESISTANCE
Indicates minimal influence of outliers. Median is more resistant than the mean.

Outlier is a value or observation that has an abnornal distance with every other values in the data
set.

Example

3. Consider a sample consisting of values 2, 4, 5, 6, and 28 from a population whose mean

is 9. Which will be a better estimator, the mean or median? Can you actually use the
median as an estimator of the mean? Why or why not?

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Solution:
It will be hard for us to use the mean as an estimator because of the nature of our data. Our
population mean is said to be 9, but 9 as the point estimator is not present with our data
because of an outlier – which is 28. Therefore, we can use the median as an estimator.

4. CONSISTENCY
A sequence of estimators is said to be consistent if it converges in probability to the true value
of the parameter.

So that, lim 𝑃(|𝜃̂𝑛 − 𝜃| < 𝜀) = 1 or lim 𝑃(|𝜃̂𝑛 − 𝜃| > 𝜀) = 0

𝑛→∞ 𝑛→∞

𝑉(𝜃𝑛 ) → 0
𝐸(𝜃𝑛 ) → 𝜃
as
𝑛→∞

Our goal is to have a RUMVUE

R – Resistant

U – Uniform
M – Minimum (or consistent)
V – Variance (or efficient)
U – Unbiased
E – Estimator

Example

4. Suppose that random sample of 10 students have the following grades in MATH 05:
90, 93, 85, 77, 88, 80, 78, 83, 95, 90
a. What is the best point estimator for the true average grade in mathematics and what
is the corresponding estimate?
b. If the population variance of grades in mathematics is 100, what is the standard error
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of the point estimate?

Solution:
At the first condition (𝑎),
Note: The best point estimator is the Sample Mean.

a.
∑10
𝑖=1 𝑋𝑖 90 + 93 + 85 + 77 + 88 + 80 + 78 + 83 + 95 + 90
𝑋̅10 = =
𝑛 10
859
𝑋̅10 = = 85.9
10
b.
𝜎 2 = 100
𝜎 = 10
𝜎
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 =
√𝑛
10
=
√10
= 3.16

5. Suppose the following data shows the number of the problems from the Practice
Problems Set attempted in the past week by 10 randomly selected students:
2, 4, 0, 7, 1, 2, 0, 3, 2, 1
a. Find the sample mean.
b. Find the sample variance.
c. Estimate the mean number of practice problems attempted
d. Estimate the standard error of the estimated mean.

Solution:
a.
∑10
𝑖=1 𝑋𝑖 2+4+0+7+1+2+0+3+2+1
𝑋̅10 = =
𝑛 10
𝑋̅10 = 2.2

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b.
∑10 ̅ 2
𝑖=1(𝑥𝑖 − 𝑋 )
𝑠2 =
𝑛−1
[3(2 − 2.2)2 + (4 − 2.2)2 + 2(0 − 2.2)2 + (7 − 2.2)2 + 2(1 − 2.2)2 + (3 − 2.2)2 ]
=
10 − 1
39.6
𝑠2 = = 4.4
9
c.

𝑋̅ = 𝜇̂ = 2.2
The estimated mean number of practice problems attempted is 2.2.

d. Since we don’t have the population standard deviation, we will use its best estimate which
is the sample standard deviation to solve the standard error.

𝑠 2 = 4.4
𝑠 = √4.4
𝑠
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 =
√𝑛
√4.4
=
10
= 0.66

6. A survey is conducted to determine the opinions of people on global warming. In a

random sample of 150 people, 108 thinks that global warming is a serious world
problem.
a. Estimate the proportion of adults who think that global warming is a very serious
world problem.
b. Estimate the proportion of adults who think that global warming is not a very serious
world problem.
c. What is the standard error of this estimate

Solution:

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Let 𝑥 be the number of adults who think that global warming is a very serious problem.
𝑛 − 𝑥be the proportion of adults who think think that global warming is not a very serious
problem.
Given 𝑥 = 108 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑛 = 150
a.
𝑥
𝑝̂ =
𝑛
108
𝑝̂ = = 0.72
150
b.
𝑛−𝑥
𝑞̅ =
𝑛
150 − 108 42
𝑞̅ = = = 0.28
150 150

c.
𝑝𝑞 𝑝̂ 𝑞̂
𝑆𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑑𝑎𝑟𝑑 𝑒𝑟𝑟𝑜𝑟 = √ =√
𝑛 𝑛

0.72(0.28)
=√ = 0.037
150

What’s more?
Solve the following problems.
1. An environmentalist is conducting a study of the polar bear. He wants to estimate the
mean weight of it using ten sample weights (in kg) of polar bears below.
970, 880, 1000, 1010, 920, 980, 970, 990, 900, 1030
a. Assuming that the weight of all polar bears is approximately normally distributed,
what is the best point estimate for the mean weight of polar bears?
b. What is the estimated standard error of the estimate?
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c. Supposed that the population mean weight of polar bears is 970 kg, what is the
value of the sampling error?
2. Supposed that out of 800 random sample of Grade 12 students, 560 of them thinks that
they are not yet ready to enter college.
a. Estimate the proportion of Grade 12 students who think that they are not yet ready
to enter college.
b. Estimate the proportion of Grade 12 students who think that they are ready to enter
college.
c. What is the standard error of the estimate?

What I have learned

In five sentences, write down the challenges you have experienced in learning estimation of
parameters (point estimation) and what did you do to overcome these challenges?

What I can do
Solve the following problems
1. A farmer wants to know the average amount of milk his cows can produce in a day. He
wants to estimate it using a sample of eight cow’s milk production (in liters)
16, 20, 18, 19, 10, 14, 14, 15
a. Assuming that milk production of cows is approximately normally distributed, what
is the best point estimate for the average amount of milk his cows can produce in a
day?
b. What is the estimated standard error of the estimate?
c. Supposed that the population average amount of milk his cows can produce is 14L,
what is the value of the sampling error?

2. Supposed that out of 640 random sample of tomato plants, 265 of them yields at least
16 kg of tomatoes per year.
a. Estimate the proportion of tomato plants that yields at least 16 kg of plants per year.
b. Estimate the proportion of tomato plants that yields less than 16 kg of plants per
year.
c. What is the standard error of the estimate?
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Assessment (Post-test)
Choose the letter of the correct answer for each item.

1. Which of the following refers to a value that is used to estimate an unknown population
parameter?
a. Estimator c. Standard Deviation
b. Sample mean d. Parameter
2. Which of the following is the correct order for the process of estimation
I: Collect Information III: Assign value to the corresponding population parameter
II: Get a sample IV: Compute statistic
a. I, II, III, IV c. II, I, IV, III
b. II, III, IV, I d. I, III, II, IV

3. Which of the following statements is true?

a. A point estimator gives a single number as an estimate of the unknown parameter value.
b. An interval estimator gives a range of possible values as an estimate of the unknown
parameter value.
c. Both a and b
d. None of the above
4. Which of the following is an unbiased estimator of the population mean?
1
a. 𝜇̂ = 𝑋1 c. 𝜇̂ = 2 (𝑋1 + 𝑋𝑛 )
b. 𝜇̂ = 𝑋̅ d. all of these
5. Which of the following is true about an efficient estimator?
a. Given two unbiased estimators of the same population parameter, the sampling distribution
with larger variance is more efficient.
b. All unbiased estimator are equally efficient estimator
c. Given two unbiased estimators of the same population parameter, the sampling distribution
with smaller variance is more efficient.
d. None of these

6. Given the following estimators for population mean, which of them is the most efficient?
1
a. 𝜇̂ = 𝑋1 c. 𝜇̂ = 2 (𝑋1 + 𝑋𝑛 )
b. 𝜇̂ = 𝑋̅ d. none of these
7. When there is an outlier in the given data set, what is the best point estimate of the population
mean can be used?
a. 𝑋̅ c. Median
b. 𝜎𝑋̅ d. All of these
8. The following are properties of good point estimator except one. Which is it?
a. Unbiased
b. Inconsistent
c. Efficient
d. Resistant

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9. A researcher uses the data of a sample of 10 College Faculty to estimate the mean age of College
Faculties in a university. Given the data below (in years), what is the best point estimate of the
mean age of College Faculties?
30, 45, 44, 36, 50, 48, 58, 32, 28, 32
a. 40.3 years c. 44 years
b. 36 years d. 43 years
10. From Question 9, if the population variance of ages of College faculties is 92, what is the standard
error of the point estimate?
a. 3.03 c. 30.67
b. 26.09 d. 3.20

Answer Key

10. a 10. a
9. a 9. a
8. b 8. b
7. c c. 0.0162 c. 0.0195 7. c
6. b b. 0.3 b. 0.568 6. b
5. c 2. a. 0.7 2. a. 0.414 5. c
4. d 4. d
3. c c. -5 kg c. 1.75 L 3. c
2. c b. 15.58 kg b. 1.15 L 2. c
1. a 1. a. 965 kg 1. a. 15.75 L 1. a
What do I know? What’s more? What I can do Assessment

References

Elementary Statistics: A Step By Step Approach 10th Edition by Allan Bluman. McGraw-Hill
Education.

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MATH03 |Core | CO1

E-mail address: shs@mapua.edu.ph
Telephone number: (02) 8247 - 5000
MATH03 | Statistics and Probability

MATH03 |Core | CO1

E-mail address: shs@mapua.edu.ph
Telephone number: (02) 8247 - 5000
MATH03 | Statistics and Probability

MATH03 |Core | CO1

E-mail address: shs@mapua.edu.ph
Telephone number: (02) 8247 - 5000
MATH03 | Statistics and Probability

MATH03 |Core | CO4

E-mail address: shs@mapua.edu.ph
Telephone number: (02) 8247 - 5000