TECHNICAL WORKSHOP: DYNAMIC NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE

MIXOPTIM: A MONTE CARLO SIMULATION TOOL FOR THE EVALUATION AND

OPTIMIZATION OF AN ELECTRICITY MIX

Axel Laureau
Post-doctoral position 

CEA Cadarache

MIXOPTIM team:
CEA - B. Bonin, G. Krivtchik, A. Laureau, H.Safa
CNRS - E. Merle
IRSN - O. Jacquet, J. Miss, Y. Richet

1 7 JUILLET 2016
 OUTLINE

I. ELECTRICITY MIX


II. MIXOPTIM

- GENERAL APPROACH

- MIX STUDY

- SCENARIOS


III. ONGOING DEVELOPMENTS


- ENERGY STORAGE

- OPTIMIX PROJECT - NEEDS PROGRAM

2
 ELECTRICITY MIX

Context:
the power demand must be satisfied
different ways to produce ener gy

3
 ELECTRICITY MIX

Context:
the power demand must be satisfied
different ways to produce ener gy

Consumption
Demand [GW]

Day

[source : RTE - 2015] 3

 ELECTRICITY MIX

Context:
the power demand must be satisfied
different ways to produce ener gy

Consumption
Demand [GW]

Day

january
Demand [GW]

june

Day
[source : RTE - 2015] 3
 ELECTRICITY MIX

Context:
the power demand must be satisfied
different ways to produce ener gy

Consumption Controllable source

Production [GW]
Demand [GW]

nuclear

gas run of river

Day Day

january
Demand [GW]

june

Day
[source : RTE - 2015] 3
 ELECTRICITY MIX

Context:
the power demand must be satisfied
different ways to produce ener gy

Consumption Controllable source

Production [GW]
Demand [GW]

nuclear

gas run of river

Day Day

january june
run of river
Production [GW]
Demand [GW]

lake

june

Pumped Storage Power Station

Day Day
[source : RTE - 2015] 3
 ELECTRICITY MIX

Context:
the power demand must be satisfied
different ways to produce ener gy

Consumption Controllable source Fatal source

solar wind sum

Production [GW]

Production [GW]
Demand [GW]

nuclear

gas run of river

Day Day Day

january june
run of river
Production [GW]
Demand [GW]

lake

june

Pumped Storage Power Station

Day Day
[source : RTE - 2015] 3
 ELECTRICITY MIX

Context:
the power demand must be satisfied
different ways to produce ener gy

Consumption Controllable source Fatal source

solar wind sum

Production [GW]

Production [GW]
Demand [GW]

nuclear

gas run of river

Day Day Day

june
january june
run of river

Production [GW]
Production [GW]
Demand [GW]

lake

january
june

Pumped Storage Power Station

Day Day Day

[source : RTE - 2015] 3
 ELECTRICITY MIX

Context:
the power demand must be satisfied
different ways to produce ener gy
Ongoing studies:
increasing renewable par t in the mix!
Consumption Controllable source Fatal source
fatal production complex to model
demand 2015 solar wind sum

Production [GW]

Production [GW]
the production of conventional sources depends on the availability
Demand [GW]

of other sources
nuclear

gas??? run of river

kd kp
availability load Mixoptim
Day factor factor
Day Day
june
january june
run of river

Production [GW]
Production [GW]

usually, the k p values are assumed…

Demand [GW]

lake
how can we make a simple tool able to take into account the expansion of
the fatal sources and the interactions between sources? january
june
[B. Bonin, H. Safa, A. Laureau, E. Merle-Lucotte, J. Miss, Y. Richet, MIXOPTIM: a tool for the evaluation
and the optimization of the electricity mix
Pumped in a territory,
Storage Eur. Phys.
Power J. Plus, 129, 198,2014 ]
Station

Day Day Day

[source : RTE] 4
 MIXOPTIM - GENERAL APPROACH

Objective:
predict the behavior of a non-existing electr icity mix …
… using an existing mix

The production chronicles reflect past events , changing

one source production affect the other s…

Production [GW]

nuclear

gas run of river

Day

5
 MIXOPTIM - GENERAL APPROACH

Objective:
predict the behavior of a non-existing electr icity mix …
… using an existing mix

The production chronicles reflect past events , changing

one source production affect the other s…

Production [GW]

nuclear

gas run of river

Day

… while the availability chronicles are almost

an intr insinc charater istic of the sources

5 Wind availability law

MIXOPTIM - GENERAL APPROACH

production
max: 130 GW

demand
max: 100 GW

6
 MIXOPTIM - GENERAL APPROACH

Wind probablity law

10 GW installed
production
max: 130 GW

demand
max: 100 GW

6
 MIXOPTIM - GENERAL APPROACH

3 GW

30%

Wind probablity law

3 GW

10 GW installed
production
max: 130 GW

demand
max: 100 GW

6
 MIXOPTIM - GENERAL APPROACH

3 GW

30%

Wind probablity law

ty!
ori
86 GW
3 GW
pri
10 GW installed
production
max: 130 GW

demand
max: 100 GW

6
 MIXOPTIM - GENERAL APPROACH

3 GW

30%

Wind probablity law

82 GW

ty!
ori
86 GW
3 GW
pri
10 GW installed
production
max: 130 GW

demand
82 GW max: 100 GW

82 GW

Consumption
6
probablity law
 MIXOPTIM - GENERAL APPROACH

3 GW
60E/MWh

30%

Interconnection cost
Wind probablity law
probablity law
82 GW

ty!
ori
86 GW
3 GW
pri
10 GW installed
production
max: 130 GW

demand
82 GW max: 100 GW

82 GW

Consumption
6
probablity law
 MIXOPTIM - GENERAL APPROACH

3 GW
capacity: 7 GW 60E/MWh
export: 4 GW
30%

Interconnection cost
Wind probablity law
probablity law
82 GW

ty!
ori
86 GW
3 GW
pri
10 GW installed
production
max: 130 GW

demand
82 GW max: 100 GW

82 GW

Consumption
6
probablity law
 MIXOPTIM - GENERAL APPROACH

3 GW
capacity: 7 GW 60E/MWh
export: 4 GW
30%

Interconnection cost
Wind probablity law
probablity law
82 GW

ty!
ori
86 GW
3 GW
pri
10 GW installed
production
max: 130 GW

demand
82 GW max: 100 GW

82 GW

Calculation output:
ener gy production: who and how much
CO 2 production
production cost (with impor t/expor t)
Consumption
ability to suppor t (or not) the demand 6
probablity law
 MIXOPTIM - GENERAL APPROACH

3 GW
capacity: 7 GW 60E/MWh
export: 4 GW
30%

Interconnection cost
Wind probablity law
probablity law
82 GW

ty!
ori
86 GW
3 GW
pri
10 GW installed
the whole procedure is repeated a lar ge production
number of times… max: 130 GW
… and an aver age behavior is estimated

demand
82 GW max: 100 GW

82 GW

Calculation output:
ener gy production: who and how much
CO 2 production
production cost (with impor t/expor t)
Consumption
ability to suppor t (or not) the demand 6
probablity law
 MIXOPTIM - GENERAL APPROACH

Two aspects modeled:

Availability law
Spectr al analysis

Solar availability chronicle Consumption chronicle

Production

Production
fraction

fraction
Day Day

7
 MIXOPTIM - GENERAL APPROACH

Two aspects modeled:

Availability law
Spectr al analysis

Solar availability chronicle Consumption chronicle

Production

Production
fraction

fraction
Availability law:
Represents cor rectly all the possible configur ations
Suppress the tempor al aspect …
Day Day

day day night night

Probability

Probability
summer winter summer winter

Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production

fraction fraction fraction fraction fraction fraction fraction fraction

7
 MIXOPTIM - GENERAL APPROACH

Two aspects modeled:

Availability law
Spectr al analysis

Solar availability chronicle Consumption chronicle

Production

Production
fraction

fraction
Availability law:
Represents cor rectly all the possible configur ations
Suppress the tempor al aspect …
Day Day

day day night night

Probability

Probability
summer winterSpectral
summer
analysis: winter
Represents the char acter istics frequency-amplitude of the
source/consumption
The controllable sources must be able to counterbalance
Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production
fraction fraction
the fatal sources+consumption
fraction fraction
fluctuations
fraction fraction fraction fraction

day Spectral analysis week day

Amplitude

Amplitude

Amplitude

Amplitude
Frequency [day -1 ] Frequency [day -1 ] Frequency [day -1 ] Frequency [day -1 ]
7
 MIXOPTIM - MIX STUDY

Input file using xml format:

(...)
<pwr
marginal_cost="10."
fixed_cost="12."
marginal_co2="0."
fixed_co2="1.5e-3"
priority_order="4" direct calculation
power="63130."
alias_availability_law="pwr_law"/>
(...)
<pwr_law>
<chronicle path="data/raw/pwr_data" nb_bin_per_day="48" nb_bin_in_law="100"/>
<loi_1 val="0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.11 0.22 1.22 8.80 9.80 0 0 0 0"/>
<loi_2 val="0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.88 1.60 1.86 2.60 5.60 4.60 2.54"/>
<loi_3 val="0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.11 0.22 1.22 8.80 9.80 0 0 0 0"/>
<loi_4 val="0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.88 1.60 1.86 2.60 5.60 4.60 2.54"/>
</pwr_law>
(...)

or use given law

8
 MIXOPTIM - MIX STUDY
Example of the French electricity mix

input

9
 MIXOPTIM - MIX STUDY
Example of the French electricity mix

input

10
 MIXOPTIM - MIX STUDY
French electricity mix and - 30 GW PWR without replacement (undersized park)

+12%

+100%

116 vs 0.02 h/year

11
 MIXOPTIM - MIX STUDY
French electricity mix and - 30 GW PWR + 30 GW wind + 30 GW solar

+75% (+12%)

+60% (+100%)

21 vs 0.02 h/year
(116 vs 0.02 h/year)

12
 s u l ts
a r y re MIXOPTIM - SCENARIOS
li m i n
P r escenario ANCRE DIV - diversification of the power sources + consumption reduction

input
Consumption depreciation of the
installation cost
present PWR wind
solar
EPR
MW

MW
gas
coal

13
 s u l ts
a r y re MIXOPTIM - SCENARIOS
li m i n
P r escenario ANCRE DIV - diversification of the power sources + consumption reduction

input
Consumption depreciation of the
installation cost
present PWR wind
solar
EPR
MW

MW
gas
coal

13
 s u l ts
a r y re MIXOPTIM - SCENARIOS
li m i n
P r escenario SOB - renewable priority + consumption reduction

input
Consumption

present PWR wind

solar
EPR
MW

MW
gas
coal

CO 2 reduced

14
 ONGOING DEVELOPMENTS - ENERGY STORAGE

DEPENDING OF SCENARIOS, MASSIVE ENERGY STORAGE WILL BE REQUIRED

Generate chronicles for the storage: 


The fatal sources can be mixed in a macro source
assumption: perfect prediction of the future production
assumption (so far): no stor age yield & no stor age limit power r amp

0.5GW solar + 0.5GW wind + storage 0.17GWh (1h at average power)

Production fraction

storage

without storage

with storage

Day

normalized chronicle only depends on the solar/wind and storage/power ratios

15
 ONGOING DEVELOPMENTS - ENERGY STORAGE
0.5GW solar + 0.5GW wind + storage 1.7GWh
storage 0.17GWh (1h at average power) (10h at average power)

storage
Production fraction

Production fraction
without storage

with storage

Day Day

16
 ONGOING DEVELOPMENTS - ENERGY STORAGE
0.5GW solar + 0.5GW wind + storage 1.7GWh
storage 0.17GWh (1h at average power) (10h at average power)

storage
Production fraction

Production fraction
without storage
Model the influence of storage:
with storage
Probability law
Spectr al analysis
Preliminary observation:
stor age = probability deviation reduction

peak reduction
impact
Day on the mix? Day
day day night night day day night night
Probability

Probability
summer winter summer winter summer winter summer winter

Production Production Production Production Production Production Production Production

fraction fraction fraction fraction fraction fraction fraction fraction
Amplitude

Amplitude

Amplitude

Amplitude
Frequency [day -1 ] Frequency [day -1 ] 16 Frequency [day -1 ] Frequency [day -1 ]
 MIXOPTIM - MIX STUDY WITH ENERGY STORAGE
French electricity mix and - 30 GW PWR + 30 GW wind + 30 GW solar + no storage

+75%

+60%

21 vs 0.02 h/year

17
 MIXOPTIM - MIX STUDY WITH ENERGY STORAGE
French electricity mix and - 30 GW PWR + 30 GW wind + 30 GW solar + storage: 10h rnw average power

+73% (+75%)

+55% (+60%)

9 vs 0.02 h/year
(21 vs 0.02 h/year)
s s
ult !!!
ry r e
i n a o r a ge
m t
Preli on the s
18 no cost
 ONGOING DEVELOPMENTS - OPTIMIX PROJECT - NEEDS PROGRAM

Le projet consiste à simuler le fonctionnement d’un mix électrique sur un

territoire pour explorer les limites physiques d’introduction des physical limit of
renewables in the mix
renouvelables dans le mix, du point de vue de sa capacité de suivi de
charge. On se propose d’utiliser pour cela le logiciel de simulation
MIXOPTIM, qui fait l’analyse spectrale des fluctuations de la charge, pour
spectral analysis
en déduire la capacité maximale acceptable en éolien et en solaire dans un
mix, en fonction des hypothèses retenues sur les fluctuations de la demande
et sur l’agilité des sources pilotables présentes dans le mix.
storage
Dans un deuxième temps, on se propose de regarder comment les limites interconnection
d’introduction des sources renouvelables fatales déterminées dans la phase
1 sont déplacées par le stockage et l’interconnexion. Il est également
renewable = downwards
envisagé d’étudier ce que deviennent les limites si on cesse de considérer
controllable source
l’éolien et le solaire comme des sources fatales, et si on en fait des
sources pilotables à la baisse.

CEA CNRS IRSN

partners: Bernard Bonin Erci Dumonteil
Elsa Merle
Axel Laureau Joachim Miss
Nicolas Thiollière
Henri Safa Yann Richet
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