Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

Energy Conversion and Management

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/enconman

Autonomous hydrogen-based solar-powered energy system for rural

electrification in Balochistan, Pakistan: An energy-economic
feasibility analysis
Tahir Khan , Muhammad Waseem , Mustafa Tahir , Shengyuan Liu , Miao Yu *
College of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, 310027, China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: This study proposed an off-grid PV-hydrogen energy system to electrify rural households in Balochistan,
Photovoltaic Pakistan. The system is designed, simulated, and optimized from a techno-economic perspective based on electric
Hydrogen load profile, geographical locations, and meteorological data. The optimal configurations and cost of the system
Cost of energy
components, i.e., solar panel, fuel cell, electrolyzer, hydrogen tank, and converter, are obtained. Sensitivity
Net present cost
Rural electrification
analysis is conducted to analyze the effect of system components’ cost, nominal discount rate and inflation rate,
and load variation on COE and NPC. Robustness analysis is also carried out to confirm the technical reliability of
the system. In addition, breakeven analysis is investigated to compare the cost of the grid extension scenario with
the proposed energy system. The results revealed that the proposed energy system is economically feasible and
technically reliable. Furthermore, the performance of the proposed system is compared with reported studies.
Finally, based on the obtained results, suggestions have been provided for effective policy implications to suc­
cessfully deploy the proposed energy system across the country.

energy systems; and (iii) seeking to produce energy economically.

1. Introduction
Energy is one of the key parameters of socio-economic progress in
any country. Accessibility to power has indeed been proven to boost
productivity and give prospects for economic growth. As a result, the
generation of economical and environmentally sustainable electricity is
critical for long-term development. Approximately 10 % (775 million
people) of the global population has no access to electricity either from
the grid or stand-alone generation system [1]. Out of 775 million people,
46.49 million people dwell in India, 42.8 million are inhabitants of
Pakistan, and 27.88 million reside in Bangladesh. The highest propor­
tion of the population without access to electricity is in Sub-Saharan
Africa, i.e., about 576.72 million. These statistics demonstrate insuffi­
cient power generation capacity or lack of energy infrastructure in
aforesaid regions. Energy requirements are increasing enormously in
fast-expanding emerging economies to sustain their expanding econo­
mies and achieve their development objectives. Developing countries
are presently confronted with three significant issues: (i) satisfying the
basic energy demands of millions of citizens without access to elec­
tricity; (ii) partaking in the global transition to green and emission-free
Pakistan is in the midst of a transition period, with the growing
electricity demand resulting from the country’s economic growth. The
country’s peak electricity demand is 25,077 MW, which is expected to
rise to 36,369 MW by 2030 [2]. In Pakistan, a significant portion of
electricity (60.82 %) is generated from imported fossil fuels, which are
neither economical nor environmentally friendly. Hydropower is the
second largest source of electricity generation, with a contribution of
29.01 %, whereas the share of nuclear power is 7.38 %. Pakistan utilizes
a small percentage of RE sources in its power mix, having a share of 1.79
% of wind energy, 0.5 % of biogas, and 0.5 % of solar energy, accounting
for less than 3 % (excluding hydropower)1 Fig. 1(a). Nonetheless, the
power production stays between 18,000 and 20,000 MW, resulting in a
5000–7000 MW electricity shortfall [3]. Traditional electricity gener­
ating methods are insufficient to supply Pakistan’s massive electrical
demand. Several critical financial sectors, such as industries, commerce,
and agriculture, have suffered due to the severe electrical shortage.
Therefore, Pakistan has planned to generate 30 % of its total electricity
generation capacity from renewable energy resources by 2030 [4] Fig. 1
(b). Authors [5–7] have discussed several aspects of GHG emissions and
provided insights into various investigative questions related to CO2

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: zjuyumiao@zju.edu.cn (M. Yu).
1
National Transmission & Despatch Company (NTDC), Power System Statistics 45th Edition 2021.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2022.116284
Received 14 June 2022; Received in revised form 23 September 2022; Accepted 24 September 2022
Available online 6 October 2022
0196-8904/© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
T. Khan et al. Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284

Nomenclature Ie Electrolyzer current

ηf Faraday efficiency
Alphabets IFC Fuel cell current
C Cost Cf Fuel cost
F Faraday constant mH2 Hydrogen mass flow (kg/h)
S Solar radiations Thtci Hydrogen tank compressor inlet temperature
N Number ηhtc Hydrogen tank compressor efficiency
P Power/Pressure Phto Hydrogen tank outlet pressure
R Universal gas constant Phti Hydrogen tank inlet pressure
T Temperature SS Incident solar radiation at standard test conditions kW/m2
ST Incident solar radiation on PV array (kW/m2)
Abbreviation
f Inflation rate
ADB Asian Development Bank
Ypv Nominal capacity of PV
AEDB Alternative Energy Growth Board
i Nominal discount rate
′

COE Cost of energy

mH2 Nominal hydrogen mass flow (kg/h)
′
CPEC China Pakistan Economic Corridor
GDP Gross domestic product NC Number of cells in series
GHG Greenhouse gas emissions Ncell Number of cells in stack
HHV Higher heating value of Hydrogen (MJ/kg) n Number of years of useful life of the project
HOMER Hybrid optimization of multiple energy system CO&M Operation & maintenance cost
HRES Hybrid renewable energy system Copr Operating cost
LHV Lower heating value of hydrogen (MJ/kg) α perturbation factor
NPC Net present cost δd daily perturbation value
δh time step perturbation value
Subscript and symbols γ Polytrophic coefficient
TA Ambient temperature (◦C) QH2 Rate of hydrogen generated by the electrolyzer
TA,NOCT Ambient temperature at which NOCT is defined fpv Reduction factor
La,p Average primary load (kWh/d) Crep Replacement cost
VSC Average voltage of a stack of fuel cell τ Solar absorptance of the PV
Cht Capacity of the hydrogen tank (kg) HT,NOCT Solar radiation at which NOCT is defined
Ccap Capital cost α Solar transmittance of PV array cover
TC,NOCT Cell temperature at which NOCT is defined αP Temperature coefficient of power (%/◦ C)
UL Coefficient of heat transfer to the surrounding TC Temperature of the PV (◦ C)
AE ,BE Coefficient of the consumption curve (kW/kg/h) Ts Temperature of the PV under standard test conditions
Picon Converter input power (25 ◦ C)
Pocon Converter output power VhtanK Volume of hydrogen tank
ηhtanK Efficiency of hydrogen tank
ηC Efficiency of PV

Fig. 1. Pakistan’s renewable and non-renewable share of power generation sources.

emissions in the China region.
The predicament is considerably worse in the rural districts of
Balochistan, where electricity load shading remains for days. Balochi­
stan has been underprivileged regarding adequate access to electricity
despite its abundant renewable and non-renewable energy resources.
There are three fundamental causes behind the province’s low electri­
fication. Firstly, about 85 % of the population resides in rural areas, with
approximately 90 % of communities still unconnected with the power
grid [8]. These towns are dispersed across vast swaths of land. Con­
necting these regions to the national grid is costly and inefficient.

2
T. Khan et al.
Secondly, the power demand of rural dwellings is usually low in contrast
to urban houses [9]. As a result, installing transmission lines for such
little demand is an expensive proposition, and policymakers see a slight
possibility of a transmission network in the coming decade. Lastly,
stakeholders are hesitant to invest in rural Balochistan due to the
province’s isolation and lack of infrastructure amenities and energy-
related data in each small town. Due to these reasons, solar energy
provides the option for off-grid renewable power generation in Balo­
chistan’s remote regions because the province obtains a higher amount
of solar irradiance over its broad terrain [10]. According to the World
Bank, Balochistan has a daily average of 7–8 sunlight hours [11]. Owing
to Pakistan’s high weather temperature, sustainability advocacy rec­
ommended that solar energy is a suitable option for electrification.
Furthermore, it was suggested that rather than expanding grid lines to
remote locations, providing each house with solar energy is a relatively
cost-effective way to improve the socio-economic situation of Balochi­
stan’s rural people [12]. Similarly, the Asian Development Bank sug­
gested that an off-grid energy system is an economically feasible option
to electrify Pakistan’s rural areas [13].
Nevertheless, solar energy is unreliable as it depends on the amount
of sunshine the photovoltaic panels receive. Also, solar panels do not
receive enough sunlight in overcast weather, which causes power fluc­
tuations. In addition, solar energy is unavailable at night. Therefore, an
energy storage system is needed to utilize solar energy efficiently.
Various energy storage devices are available, including batteries, fly­
wheels, hydrogen storage, etc. [14]. Batteries are widely used ener­
gy storage devices as a backup in renewable energy systems. However,
energy leakage and low energy density issues are associated with bat­
teries. Therefore, batteries are not feasible for prolonged operations and
high storage. This battery constraint can be circumvented by employing
a hydrogen fuel cell, which generates power using hydrogen as a fuel,
enhancing the overall performance of the renewable energy system
[15]. In an autonomous PV-hydrogen fuel cell system, surplus electricity
from the solar panel is used by an electrolyzer to produce hydrogen,
which is then stored in a hydrogen tank when energy demand is not
high. Further, when solar radiation is insufficient or at night, the stored
hydrogen is converted into power using a fuel cell to satisfy load de­
mand. An autonomous PV-hydrogen system could be advantageous for
residents in areas where electrical grid extension is backbreaking due to
intense topographic constrictions. Also, the transportation and fuel costs
are reduced by producing hydrogen in situ using renewable energy
sources. However, many important factors must be considered for
optimal, reliable, and safe operation of autonomous PV-hydrogen en­
ergy systems, including system sizing and cost, availability of solar ra­
diation, prospective electrical loads, and safety and protection.
1.1. Motivation and contribution of the present study
Balochistan, Pakistan’s largest province, with an area of 347,190
km2, accounts for 43.60 % of the country’s total land area. As per the
2017 census, its number of inhabitants is 12.34 million (5.9 % of the
country’s total population), a very low population density/km2 [16].
Although Balochistan is the country’s second-largest natural gas sup­
plier [17], yet the least developed. Balochistan’s location is strategically
important because of its extended coastal line. Gwadar, a port city in
Balochistan, is the most direct route between the Middle East and
Central Asia. Gwadar has drawn various foreign investments and initi­
ated several developmental projects due to its prominence [18]. As a
result, the energy demand in Balochistan has increased over the previous
decade. The current electricity demand in the region is around 1,656
MW; however, approximately 596 MW (36 %) of energy demand is
satisfied [19]. In urban areas, the huge electrical shortfall causes a
power shortfall of 10 to 12 h/day. Power outages are more severe in
rural areas, where 85 % (10.489 million) of Balochistan’s inhabitants
live, but electricity is only accessible for 3 to 4 h/day in electrified vil­
lages [19].
3
Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284
According to [20], Balochistan has a rich solar energy potential,
having a maximum GHI is 2,300 kWh/m2, of which only a small portion
is being utilized. Fortunately, the solar energy infrastructure is now
improving because the government has recognized the significance of
solar energy. Pakistan’s Government has announced attractive in­
centives to install solar PV in the country. In addition, finance and tax
perks are available for investors to entice them to this industry to suc­
cessfully achieve the 2030 green energy goal of Pakistan. The present
energy situation of Pakistan calls for opportunities in renewable energy,
more specifically solar energy in Balochistan province, due to sever­
al potential reasons, such as high irradiation, subsidies, zero duty for
importing solar panels, and flexible investment schemes. Therefore, a
wide variety of cutting-edge research is required, for instance, techno-
economic feasibility analysis, hydrogen production potential from
solar PV, household-owned hydrogen-based stand-alone PV system to
electrify remote villages, etc. Unfortunately, literature revealed that
besides having a huge solar potential in Balochistan province, no study is
conducted to delicately and broadly assess the hydrogen potential
through solar energy. In addition, no study is available on hydrogen-
based RE system for Balochistan province. Authors [21–27] conducted
a feasibility study for hydrogen production in different regions of
Pakistan through various renewable energy resources. However, none of
the studies conducted research on PV-hydrogen RES for any region of
Balochistan. Keeping in view the research gap and utmost need to
electrify the most resourceful yet underdeveloped province of Pakistan,
the current study aims to investigate an in-depth techno-economic
feasibility analysis of stand-alone PV-hydrogen energy system. This
would ultimately improve the living standard of the local inhabitants,
uplifting the socio-economic situation of the region and, in the long-
term, increase the GDP of the Balochistan province as well as
Pakistan. This work is comprehensive in a way that it studied the largest
province of Pakistan, accounting for 43.60 % of the country’s total land
area. The outline of the contribution of the present study is as follows:
a) Given the meteorological data and estimated energy consumption
profile of households, a detailed hierarchal framework for the pro­
posed energy system is presented to obtain the optimal system con­
figurations, satisfying the load demand for each division of
Balochistan. Furthermore, the electrical and hydrogen profiles of the
optimized system configurations for all divisions are thoroughly
investigated and compared.
b) The economy of the optimal system configuration for each division is
obtained and contrasted in detail considering COE, NPC, initial
capital cost, operating cost, and overall cash flow of the system.
c) Based on the obtained results of the present study, a comprehensive
policy implication is provided for the wider deployment of the pro­
posed system across the country.
2. Literature review
In literature, various authors have proposed rE-based energy systems
for rural electrification or off-grid applications as an alternative to fossil
fuel-based energy systems, considering the availability of RE sources in
the studied regions. Due to their intermittent nature, energy storage
devices are needed for rE-based energy systems. In this context, a battery
energy storage system is widely used in the literature [28]. However, it
has inadequate energy density and power leakage issues. A diesel
generator system is also utilized as a backup energy system, but it causes
GHG emissions and adds high fuel transportation costs for rural areas
[29]. Thus, a fuel cell can be a viable option to use with rE-based energy
system. Whenever the power from RE sources is insufficient, the fuel cell
converts hydrogen into power to meet the energy demand. The fuel cell
has been proved to be one of the most acceptable energy storage devices
because of its good efficiency, minimal maintenance requirement, and
lower GHG emissions [30].
Researchers around the globe investigated the techno-economic
 T. Khan et al.
Table 1
Overview of selected studies from literature utilized HRES with hydrogen technologies.
Ref. Optimum system configuration Load COE TNPC Method Location Application Year
(kWh/d) ($/kWh) ($)
PV WT DG HKT BC EL HT FC BT
(kW) (kW) (kW) (kW) (kW) (kW) (kg) (kW) (kWh)

[46] 190 ⨯ ⨯ ⨯ 40 5 40 5 9645 485 1.051 3,446,346 HOMER Kirklareli, Turkey University Campus 2012
[47] 8.780 ⨯ ⨯ ⨯ NA 2 0.410 1 10.400 23.800 1.352 102,323 HOMER Tocantins, Brazil Research Center 2013
[48] 300 660 ⨯ ⨯ 150 200 400 100 ⨯ 1,875 0.685 9,863,963 HOMER Bozcaada, Turkey Residential Area 2014
[49] 4,200 ⨯ ⨯ ⨯ 2,000 3,400 955,000 2,000 ⨯ 16,000 0.120 8,942,636 HOMER Brest, Electrical Load of City 2014
France
[50] 3 3 3.500 2 0.250 0.010 1 25.200 18 0.505 39,557 HOMER Central India Police Station 2016
[51] 60 40 ⨯ ⨯ 35 40 40 15 ⨯ 90 0.862 361,115 HOMER Ontario, Building Electrical Load 2016
Canada
[29] 71 ⨯ ⨯ ⨯ 18 3 2 5 694,440 140 0.355 369,603 HOMER Sarawak, Malaysia Village Longhouse 2017
[52] 135 ⨯ ⨯ ⨯ NA 290 363 140 ⨯ 594 0.334 3,244,897 ABC, PSO, FPA Egypt Rural Area 2018
4

[53] 36 ⨯ ⨯ 15 10 10 10 ⨯ 25 5.600 0.254 138,672 HOMER Guayaquil, Ecuador Island Household 2018
kWp1
[54] 1,200 ⨯ 5,850 ⨯ 300 2,000 500 1,000 ⨯ 51, 020 0.260 4,500,000 TC2 NA UAE Cruise Ship 2019
[55] 500 ⨯ ⨯ ⨯ 500 10 10 20 8,040 1,093 1.536 7,727,992 HOMER Kunming, Community Center 2019
China
[56] 280 ⨯ ⨯ 80 10 10 20 10 ⨯ 374,94 0.400 348,665 HOMER Ecuadorian Amazon community Electric Load 2019
[57] 1.800 ⨯ ⨯ ⨯ 5 3.501 10 2.250 ⨯ 6.800 0.195 12,282 Iterative Baqubah, Household Electrical Load 2020
Iraq
[58] 1,790 400 ⨯ ⨯ 8.800 1206 24 490 9.600 295 0.289 9,395,142 JA, PSO Al.baha, University Campus 2020
KSA
[59] 80 ⨯ ⨯ ⨯ NA 50 20 20 ⨯ 200 0.161 148,371 HOMER Andhra Pradesh, India Household Electrical Load 2020
[60] 8,102 ⨯ 2,000 ⨯ 3,300 4,130 7,600 7,600 ⨯ 37,260 0.360 77,213,025 HOMER Khorfakkan, UAE Electrical Load of City 2021
[61] 54.700 14 3 8 7 61.540 0.041 41,455 HOMER Ekpoma, Nigeria University Lab 2021

Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284

⨯ ⨯ ⨯ ⨯
1
5.6kWp is a peak load.
2
4,500,000 TC is a total cost of a system.
T. Khan et al. Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284

Table 2 reliable and non-pollutant; however, the cost is still not competitive
Geographical locations, annual average GHI and AT of seven divisions. compared to the battery storage system. Zhang et al. [40] used three
Division Latitude Longitude Annual average Annual average metaheuristic techniques to optimize the various configurations of solar
radiation ambient temperature and wind HRES based on battery or hydrogen storage systems. The
(kWh/m2/day) (◦ C) finding revealed that the HRES with hydrogen energy system is reliable
Quetta 30◦ 12ʹ 67◦ 10ʹ E 5.40 16.53 and less pollutant, while the HRES with battery storage system is more
N economical.
Zhob 31◦ 34ʹ 69◦ 46ʹ E 5.18 16.83 Numerous scientists adopted hydrogen-based HRES to supply unin­
N
Loralai 30◦ 38ʹ 68◦ 59ʹ E 5.28 19.60
terruptible power to meet the load demand. The authors in [41] con­
N ducted a techno-economic analysis of the PV/WT/FC system to provide
Sibi 29◦ 55ʹ 67 88ʹ E
◦
5.23 22.91 electricity to rural residential households. The results confirmed the
N reliability of the system is within an economical range. Devrim and Bilir
Nasirabad 27◦ 37ʹ 67◦ 91ʹ E 5.27 25.51
[42] investigated the application of a PV/WT/FC off-grid HRES for
N
Kalat 29◦ 05ʹ 66◦ 58ʹ E 5.52 16.80 residential electrification in Ankara, Turkey. The outcome of the study
N exhibited that the fuel cell system could compensate for power shortages
Makran 25◦ 30ʹ 64◦ 00ʹ E 5.33 25.89 throughout the year. To mitigate the power shortage problem in a tourist
N resort, Sammy et al. [43] proposed PV/WT/FC HRES as a backup energy
system that operates when the electricity from the grid is absent or
analysis, techno-economic-environmental analysis, comparative assess­ insufficient. The proposed system proved to be successful in overcoming
ment, and performance evaluation of HRES with hydrogen technologies the grid’s reliability problem. The COE of the backup energy system is
(electrolyzer, hydrogen tank, and fuel cell) for various capacities, re­ found to be less expensive than the COE of purchasing power from the
gions, and applications. Pal and Mukherjee [31] conducted technical grid. Singh and Baredar [44] proposed PV/FC-biomass HRES to electrify
feasibility and economic viability of standalone PV/hydrogen HRES educational institute in India. Simulation results indicated that the
systems for the electrification of different rural regions of India. The hybrid system satisfied the load demand throughout the year without
authors concluded that the adopted system economically satisfies the causing power outages within an economical range. Ozden and Tari [45]
energy demand of the studied regions. Ceran et al. [32] evaluated the examined off-grid PV/FC HRES to ensure that the system supplies power
cost-benefit analysis of a PV/WT/FC HRES for three different resi­ to the emergency room for an entire year during an emergency blackout.
dential electrical loads, which proved to be cost-effective. The findings demonstrated that the system is economically satisfying the
Since GHG emissions are a major environmental threat, various au­ desired power requirements.
thors investigated the environmental impact of utilizing hydrogen-based Apart from the literature discussed in this section, Table 1 presents a
energy systems. Kazim [33] conducted a viability analysis of utilizing comprehensive overview of further studies investigating hydrogen-
fuel cell energy system in homes and public buildings, considering based HRES for different applications. In Table 1, the total NPC and
economic and environmental factors. The findings showed that using a COE of the systems are observed to be different for two main reasons.
fuel cell to produce electrical energy can help to reduce GHG emissions Firstly, the cost of individual components of hydrogen-based HRES dif­
and save fossil fuels significantly. Zoulias and Lymberopoulos [34] fers across countries. Secondly, the cost of hydrogen-based HRES is
investigated the integration of solar energy system with fuel cell system profoundly dependent on the financial conditions (discount rate and
to electrify rural area in Greece. The results revealed that substituting a inflation rate) and renewable energy policies (tax incentives, subsidies,
fossil fuel-based power generation system with a PV/hydrogen system is exemption of customs duty, etc.) of the individual country.
technically feasible and environmentally friendly, but the cost is still
challenging. Ashourian et al. [35] proposed PV/WT/FC/battery HRES to 3. Solar radiation data, load and location
satisfy the energy demand of Malaysian island resorts. The results were
compared with the diesel generator (DG) energy system, which proved 3.1. Solar radiation data
that the proposed system is reliable and free from GHG emissions.
However, it is not cost-effective as DG until the fuel price reaches $2.10/ The satellite-driven solar radiation data and ambient air temperature
liter. To deal with growing energy demand in the residential sector, Ren of all seven divisions are taken from the NASA database [62]. The
et al. [36] proposed an optimization model for a PV/FC/battery HRES. geographic coordinates, annual average radiations, and annual average
The authors confirmed that implementing the proposed HRES yields ambient temperatures are presented in Table 2, and their corresponding
satisfactory financial, technical, and environmental outcomes. monthly average values are available in Table A1. The four seasons in
Researchers conducted a techno-economic comparative assessment Balochistan are usually; winter: from Dec to Feb; summer: from June to
among various hydrogen-based HRES to realize an optimal system for August; autumn: from Sep to November; and spring: from March to May.
their applications. Elkadeem et al. [37] conducted a techno-economic The summer season is usually hot, long, and dry, whereas the winter is
feasibility study through a decision-making approach for off-grid PV/ cold, short, and clear.
WT/diesel/FC HRES. Various possible HRES configurations were ­ The solar radiation data obtained from ground-based devices is more
modeled, assessed, and contrasted to find the most cost-effective and precise in contrast to satellite-driven data. Nevertheless, calibration
emission-free HRES. Among other configurations, PV/WT/FC HRES was errors, functional limitations, and equipment substitutions of ground-
found to be an optimum configuration due to the minimum cost, based devices induce assessment errors between 6 and 12 %, and data
reduced GHG emissions, and improved system reliability. Bezmalinovic gaps are occasionally unnoticed or uncertain [31]. On the other hand,
et al. [38] studied three different off-grid energy systems, including PV/ the veracity of satellite-based data and ground-based devices is in the
battery, PV/battery/FC, and PV/battery/DG, to provide a continuous range of 11 to 17 % [63]. In Pakistan, 9 ground-based solar measure­
power supply to the telecommunication network. The findings exhibited ment stations have been commissioned for the measurement of solar
that the PV/battery/FC system is favorable considering the reliability, radiation data, funded by the World Bank [20]. Out of 9 stations, 2 are
whereas the other two energy systems are economically feasible. Zhang installed in Quetta and Khuzdar cities of Balochistan province, which are
et al. [39] employed the simulated annealing algorithm to optimize six insufficient to measure solar radiations in all seven divisions of Balo­
different HRES configurations with different energy storage systems. chistan. This study uses NASA satellite-based solar radiation data to
The authors concluded that HRES with a hydrogen storage system is simulate the PV-hydrogen system. Many researchers [64–67] have
already utilized NASA satellite-based solar radiation data for their

5
T. Khan et al.
Fig. 2. Scaled annual daily average load profile of household.
studies, which is acceptable in the absence of ground-based data.
3.2. Location and load
The Balochistan province is located in the South-West of Pakistan.
The geographic coordinates of all seven divisions of Balochistan are
presented in Table 2. According to the 2017 census of Pakistan [16],
each rural house in Balochistan is a constituent of an average of 7 family
members. Inhabitants in rural areas of Balochistan use electricity to
operate basic home appliances, for example, LED lights, fans, TV, fridge,
water motor, washing machine, etc. The functional hours of electrical
appliances are calculated based on a probabilistic approach. The
schedule of home appliances’ usage in a rural area is also considered
while constructing the load profile. For instance, the fridge is normally
operated throughout the day, the washing machine and water motor are
counted to operate for minimum hours, and fans are considered to
operate during the day and night depending on the need. LED bulbs are
functional from 6:00p.m. to 11:00p.m. and early morning. Further, in
rural areas, inhabitants usually take a rest for an hour or two between
01:00p.m. and 4:00p.m. Therefore, only fans and fridges are operational
in this period. This way, a probabilistic approach is used to create an
Fig. 3. Monthly average load demand of a single house.
6
Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284
electrical profile. Fig. 2 represents the scaled annual daily average load
profile of the household. The detailed calculation can be found in
Table A2.
The estimated energy consumption load is divided into 24 h based on
its usage to obtain the daily load profile. To produce the realistic type of
load data, HOMER employs day-to-day and hour-to-hour load fluctua­
tions, which are taken to be 2 % and 12 %, respectively, in the present
study.
α = 1 + δd + δh
α = 1 + δd + δh (1)
The daily average energy consumption of a typical single household
is calculated to be 6.91 kWh/day, with a peak load of 0.63 kW. The
average load demand is 0.29 kW. Fig. 3 represents the monthly average
load demand of a single house in a rural area of Balochistan. Further­
more, the daily average minimum and maximum load demand are ob­
tained in the ranges of 0.12 kW to 0.14 kW and 0.48 kW to 0.50 kW
throughout the year. Moreover, the daily annual minimum and daily
annual maximum load demands are observed to be in the ranges of 0.09
kW to 0.11 kW and 0.56 kW to 0.62 kW over the year.
4. System architecture, theoretical framework and economic
modelling
4.1. System architecture
To electrify the rural households in Balochistan, a stand-alone PV-
hydrogen energy system is proposed, which includes PV, FC, electro­
lyzer, hydrogen tank, and converter, as shown in Fig. 4. The PV panel is
responsible for serving the load demand during the sunshine hours. The
PV panel generates DC power which is converted into AC power through
the converter. The excess generated power is supplied to the electrolyzer
through the DC busbar. The electrolyzer converts input power into
hydrogen through electrolysis, which is then stored in a hydrogen tank.
At night or whenever PV power is insufficient, FC utilizes stored
hydrogen from the hydrogen tank and generates power to satisfy the
load demand. The FC is also connected to the DC busbar, which is further
connected to the converter to provide AC power to the load. The tech­
nical description and cost of each component are provided in Table 3.
T. Khan et al.
Fig. 4. Proposed PV-hydrogen energy system.
4.2. Theoretical framework
4.2.1. PV panel
The PV cells convert the incoming solar radiation into DC power ­
output to meet the electric load demand of the consumers. In this study,
Canadian solar-CS3U-360P is used, which has the polycrystalline type of
cell. In literature, authors [31,68,69] used polycrystalline photovoltaic
(PCPV) panels in their studies for rural electrification. On the other
hand, researchers [4,61,70] utilized monocrystalline photovoltaic
(MCPV) panels to provide electricity to educational institutes. Since
MCPV panels need less space than PCPV panels, the research community
prefers MCPV panels where space is limited. However, the cost of MCPV
panels is higher than PCPV panels. In this work, PCPV is chosen because
space is not considered a constraint. In addition, the chosen PCPV has a
− 0.36 %/◦ C temperature coefficient, which means that for every 1 ◦ C
increase above the nominal operating cell temperature, which is 45 ◦ C, it
will lose 0.36 % of rated maximum power. Furthermore, the electrical
efficiency is 18.2 %. These [31,68,69,71–73] studies utilized solar
panels having a temperature coefficient range of − 0.36 to − 0.50 %/◦ C
and an efficiency range of 13 % to16.9 % for a similar climate to this
study. The chosen PCPV is easily available in Pakistani markets. The
PV power output is determined by the amount of incident solar radiation
and other climatic factors such as ambient temperature and humidity.
HOMER evaluates the photovoltaic output power using (2) [56]. The
temperature of the PV cell can be calculated from (3).
( )
ST
Ppv = Ypv fpv [1 + αP (TC − Ts) ] (2)
SS
7
Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284
( )
TC,NOCT − TA,NOCT ( η )
TC = TA + ST 1− C (3)
ST,NOCT τα
The variation in the PV cell temperature can be obtained using (4).
ταST = ηC ST + UL (TC − TA ) (4)
In the above equation, τα represents the effective absorption trans­
mittance of the PV panel. This value is taken as 0.9 NOCT by HOMER
software. In the fabrication testing process, nominal operating cell
temperature (NOCT) is determined at the zero-load operating condition
with a solar radiation value of 0.8 kW/m2 at an ambient temperature of
20 ◦ C.
4.2.2. Electrolyzer
The electrolyzer is an electrochemical device that takes power as
input and produces hydrogen and oxygen molecules by splitting water
via the electrolysis process [29]. Various types of electrolyzers are
available, such as polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) electrolyzer,
phosphoric acid electrolyzer, solid oxide electrolyzer, direct methanol
electrolyzer, and alkaline electrolyzer. Each of these is used for different
applications. The PEM electrolyzer is favored for small-capacity off-grid
energy systems for rural applications [74]. Based on the higher heating
value, the PEM electrolyzer’s theoretical efficiency is reported to be up
to 94 %. However, this value is practically obtained as 85 % [31].
Therefore, a PEM electrolyzer with 85 % efficiency is considered in this
study. The electrolyzer’s hydrogen production rate is estimated using
(5). Furthermore, the amount of input electrical energy needed by the
electrolyzer can be calculated as (6) [75].
T. Khan et al. Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284

Table 3 4.2.4. Fuel cell

Technical parameters and expenditure of proposed system components [31,82]. The fuel cell used in this work is of PEMFC type. The author [77]
Components detail Description recommended PEMFC type in stand-alone energy systems. Also, various
authors have utilized PEMFC in stand-alone energy systems, a few of
PV panel
PV model Canadian solar-CS3U-360P them are [29,52,53,55,69,78], due to its good electrical efficiency,
PV capacity (W) 360 lower weight, high cell life, low operating temperature, quick start-up
Temperature coefficient (%/◦ C) − 0.36 speeds, minimum emissions, less maintenance, quiet operation, and
Nominal operating cell temperature (◦ C) 45 high flexibility [79]. In addition, PEMFC efficiency is observed to be in
Efficiency (%) 18.2
Derating factor (%) 85
the range of 40 to 60 %. Thus, in this study, fuel cell efficiency is esti­
Ground reflectance (%) 20 mated to be 51.3 %. The output power and efficiency of FC can be
Considered sizes for capacity optimization 0, 3, 3.5, 4, 4.5, 5, 5.5, 6, 6.5, 7, 7.5, 8 calculated as (10) (11) [80].
Initial capital cost ($) 400
Replacement cost ($) 400 PFC = Vstack IFC = VSC Ncell IFC (10)
Operation & maintenance cost ($/year) 10
Useful life (years) 25 PFC
Electrolyzer ηFC = (11)
mH2 HHVH2
Minimum load ratio (%) 30
Efficiency (%) 85
Considered sizes for capacity optimization 0, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3 4.2.5. Converter
Initial capital cost ($) 1,100 The power output from the PV panel and fuel cell is DC power,
Replacement cost ($) 850 whereas the load in the present study is AC. Therefore, the converter is
Operation & maintenance cost ($/years) 10
required to convert DC power into AC power (inverter). The converter’s
Lifetime (years) 15
Hydrogen Tank efficiency is assumed as 90 % and can be determined using (12) [81].
Initial tank level with respect to tank size 10
Pocon
(%) ηcon = (12)
Considered sizes for capacity optimization 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Picon
Capital cost ($) 600
Replacement cost ($) 600
O&M cost ($/year) 10 4.3. Economic modeling
Useful life (years) 25
Fuel Cell 4.3.1. Total net present cost
Fuel type Stored hydrogen HOMER considers the net present cost in the simulation process to
Minimum load ratio (%) 30
prioritize the several possible RE system configurations. The total NPC of
Efficiency (%) 51.3
Considered sizes for capacity optimization 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2 a system is the current value of all expenses of implementing and
Initial capital cost ($) 2000 operating the system components throughout the project life, exclu­
Replacement cost ($) 2000 ding the current cost of all profit generated throughout the project life.
Operation & maintenance cost ($/hour) 0.03
The profit earned by the system is through the salvage value of the
Useful life (hours) 15,000
Converter components. HOMER evaluates NPC of both individual components and
Efficiency (%) 90 a whole system. HOMER uses the following equation to compute NPC
Considered sizes for capacity optimization 0, 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2 (13) [83].
Initial capital cost ($) 200 [ ]
Replacement cost ($) 200 Ct
O&M cost ($/year) 0
NPC = (13)
CRF(i, n)
Useful life (years) 15
Where Ct is defined as the annualized cost of the system, CRF is the
( ) short form of capital recovery factor, and both can be evaluated as (14)
QH2 = ηf
NC Ie
(5) and (15) [84].
2F
Ct = Ccap + Crep + CO&M + Copr + Cf (14)

(6)
′
IE = AE .mH2 + BE .mH2 i(1 + i)n
CRF(i, n) = (15)
i(1 + i)n − 1
4.2.3. Hydrogen tank
A hydrogen tank is required to store the hydrogen produced by the 4.3.2. Real discount rate
electrolyzer. The power needed to compress the hydrogen inside the The real discount rate is employed to obtain the conversion between
hydrogen tank is shown in (7) [67]. The inner pressure of the hydrogen one-time cost and yearly cost. HOMER evaluates the real discount rate
tank is estimated as (8) [76]. In addition, HOMER evaluates hydrogen using the nominal discount rate and inflation rate given by (16) [85].
tank autonomy using (9), defined as the ratio of the energy capacity of
the hydrogen tank to the average electric load.
′
i − f
i= (16)
( ) ( )[( )γ− 1 ] 1+f
γ Thtci Phto γ
Pcom = R − 1 QH2 (7) In this study, the annual expected nominal discount rate and the
γ− 1 ηhtc Phti
annual expected inflation rate are taken as 14.75 % and 12.67 %,
( ) respectively. Both values are referred from the state bank of Pakistan.2
RThtci
PtanK = η (8)
VhtanK htanK
4.3.3. Cost of energy
[ ] Cost of energy is the average cost per kWh of utilizable electricity
Cht LHV(24h/d)
Aht = (9) generated by the system. It suggests the average minimum price at
La,p (3.6MJ/kWh)

2
https://www.sbp.org.pk/.

8
T. Khan et al.
Fig. 5. Design framework of the proposed energy system.
which the electricity should be sold to cover its entire operating costs
throughout its lifetime. It is used to evaluate and compare different
energy systems in terms of cost, giving an idea of the economic feasi­
bility of the energy system. To compute the COE, HOMER takes the ratio
of the annual cost of generating electricity to the total utilizable elec­
tricity generated (17) [86].
Ct
COE = (17)
Es
5. Methodology
The system is modeled, optimized, and analyzed using HOMER
software. The dispatch strategy adopted in this study is load flowing. In
this strategy, if the PV system is not able to meet the load demand, the
fuel cell gets activated and satisfies the load demand. Furthermore, the
maximum annual capacity shortage is set as 1 % only, which defines the
upper limit of permitted load shedding as a proportion of the overall
load. In some situations, adjusting a capacity shortage drastically in­
fluences the economy of a system. It could happen if a high peak appears
for a brief period. In addition, the minimum operational reserve is set as
10 % of the total load, which defines the minimum fraction of operating
capacity that the system should be able to supply in case of an increment
in load or deficit in available renewable energy. The project life is taken
to be 25 years.
5.1. Pre-HOMER evaluation.
Pre-evaluation of the chosen area is necessary to acquire the desired
results and satisfy the energy need of the inhabitants. It is recorded in
the literature that energy initiatives in developing countries have not
been entirely successful due to a lack of insight into the domestic load
9
Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284
requirements of the community and the daily working routine of local
inhabitants [87]. Keeping in view this concern, a thorough resource
evaluation, socio-economic situation, and load demand of rural areas of
Balochistan are extensively examined to model the PV-hydrogen system.
This aids in understanding households’ energy consumption behavior
and load demand, which is essential for the successful design and
implementation of energy projects.
5.2. Techno-economic analysis
HOMER software is adopted for the optimal sizing and techno-
economic investigation of the present study. This software is devel­
oped by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory,3 capable of con­
ducting technical as well as economic analysis for grid-connected and
off-grid HRES for different types of loads, such as commercial, indus­
trial and residential. In literature, various researchers have preferred
HOMER software in their studies (Table 1). In HOMER, three main steps
are followed to successfully obtain the optimized results: system
modeling, simulation and optimization, and sensitivity analysis. In the
first step, the RES is designed, including technical and economic pa­
rameters according to the load demand and system specification. In
addition, average hourly data of load demand and solar radiation is
needed. In the second step, HOMER simulates various RES system con­
figurations and ranks all the optimal configurations based on net present
cost as an economic criterion. In the final step, based on input values of
sensitive parameters, HOMER reiterates the optimization procedure for
the individual input value of the parameter to evaluate how the results
are influenced.
3
https://www.homerenergy.com.
T. Khan et al. Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284

Table 4
Optimized PV-hydrogen system components and costs.
Divisions PV Electrolyzer Hydrogen tank (kg) FC Convertor TNPC COE Operating cost ($/year) Initial cost
(kW) (kW) (kW) (kW) ($) ($/kWh) ($)

Quetta 5.70 1.90 1.00 0.75 0.80 24,124 0.470 857.04 6,630
Zhob 5.75 1.90 1.00 0.75 0.80 24,400 0.475 864.70 6,650
Loralai 5.65 1.75 0.90 0.70 0.80 22,814 0.437 809.74 6,300
Sibi 5.50 2.00 1.05 0.75 0.80 24,275 0.473 863.41 6,650
Nasirabad 5.80 2.00 1.10 0.70 0.80 23,696 0.461 830.64 6,640
Kalat 5.50 1.80 0.90 0.70 0.80 22,741 0.433 805.44 6,285
Makran 5.60 1.85 1.10 0.70 0.80 23,494 0.458 832.75 6,495

system is modeled and simulated in HOMER to optimize the cost and size
of system components (section 6.2). Then, sensitivity analyses are con­
ducted considering the most uncertain parameters that potentially in­
fluence the cost of energy and net present cost of the proposed energy
system (section 6.3). Finally, robustness analyses are carried out to
verify the reliability of the proposed system in all four seasons (6.4).

6. Optimization results and discussion

An off-grid PV-hydrogen renewable energy system to electrify rural

Fig. 6. Total NPC and COE of optimal system configurations
seven divisions.
5.3. Sensitivity analyses
Sensitivity analyses are conducted to observe the effect of sensitive
parameters on the cost of a system. Fuel cell cost, nominal discount rate,
inflation rate, and load demand are taken as sensitive parameters based
on an extensive study of Pakistan’s electricity sector and economic
outlook. The effect of these sensitive parameters is analyzed concerning
NPC and COE of the PV-hydrogen energy system. Among the cost of
other components, FC cost shares a significant percentage of cost in the
overall cost of the system, therefore, included as a sensitive parameter.
The nominal discount rate and inflation rate are chosen as sensitive
parameters because emerging economies, such as Pakistan, are
extremely sensitive to discount and inflation rates, causing an impact on
the prices of all imported goods [88]. The rationale behind considering
these factors is to better understand the research outcome from the
investor viewpoint to contribute to renewable energy initiatives in
Pakistan.
5.4. Robustness check
This research also examines the reliability of the PV-hydrogen sys­
tem to observe whether the system produces sufficient energy to satisfy
the energy demands of the chosen area. Technical reliability and eco­
nomic feasibility play an important role in successfully commissioning
the RES projects. The former is necessary to provide reliable electricity,
which is the main intention of such projects, whereas the latter is
essential to make the energy system affordable for residents and for
stakeholders willing to invest in renewable energy projects. Thus, the
robustness of the proposed system is verified by analyzing power gen­
eration profiles in all four seasons of Balochistan, including the months
with maximum average energy demand (April) and lowest solar radia­
tions (December).
Fig. 5 represents the design framework of the proposed system.
Firstly, Pre-HOMER evaluation is conducted before beginning the
simulation in HOMER (section 6.1). Secondly, the proposed energy
households of all seven divisions of Balochistan is modeled, optimized,
and analyzed using HOMER software. HOMER suggests various system
configurations based on the input data provided in the search bound­
aries. The input parameters used for the modeling and optimization of
the proposed system are detailed in Table 3. In addition, solar radiation
data (Appendix A1), control parameters (section 6), and economic pa­
for
rameters (section 5.2) were also included before running the simulation.
The effect of ambient temperature on solar cells is also considered.
Further, a solar panel is used without a tracking system and has zero
degrees azimuth position toward the south-west direction. Since the
proposed system is off-grid, electricity sale to the grid is not considered.
HOMER suggested hundreds of possible system configurations after the
optimization process; however, only one optimal system was shortlisted
for each division based on the lowest TNPC and COE, and minimum
capacity shortage value.
6.1. Optimal system configuration and its cost
The winning energy system configuration for each division and
associated costs are presented in Table 4. The capacity of the converter is
found to be 0.8 kW for all divisions because of the same load demand for
each division. To satisfy the energy demand of the Quetta division,
HOMER suggested 5.70 kW of PV, 1.90 kW of EL, 1 kg of HT, and 0.75
kW of FC, while total NPC, COE, operating cost, and initial costs are
optimized to be $ 24,124, 0.470 $/kWh, 857.04 $/yr, and $ 6,630. For
Zhob division, the optimal system configuration obtained is the same as
Quetta division except for PV (5.75 kW), whereas the costs are observed
to be $ 24,400 total NPC, 0.475 $/kWh COE, 864.70 $/yr operating cost,
and $ 6,650 initial system cost. To provide an uninterruptable power
supply to the household in Loralai, the most optimal system combination
is found as 5.65 kW of PV, 1.75 kW of EL, 0.9 kg of HT, 0.70 kW of FC,
and the associated costs of the system are noted as $ 22,814 total NPC,
0.437 $/kWh COE, 809.74 $/yr operating cost, and $ 6,300 initial sys­
tem cost. To fulfill the energy demand of the Sibi division, HOMER
suggested the optimal system having individual component capacity of
5.50 kW PV, 2 kW EL, 1.05 kg HT, and 0.75 kW FC, whereas the total
NPC, COE, operating cost, and the initial cost of the system are $ 24,275,
0.473 $/kWh, 863.41 $/yr, and $ 6,650. For Nasirabad division, the
most feasible system components are observed to be 5.80 kW of PV, 2
kW of EL, 1.1 kg of HT, and 0.70 kW of FC, while the costs of the system
are optimized to be $ 23,696 TNPC, 0.461 $/kWh COE, 830.64 $/yr
operating cost, and $ 6,640 initial system cost. To supply uninterruptible
power to Kalat division, HOMER recommended the system component
rating as 5.50 kW of PV, 1.80 kW of EL, 0.90 kg of HT, and 0.70 kW of

10
T. Khan et al. Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284

Table 5
Electrical characteristics of PV-hydrogen system for seven divisions.
Division PV production Fuel cell AC primary Electrolyzer load Excess electricity Unmet electric Capacity Renewable
production load load shortage fraction

(kWh/ (%) (kWh/ (%) (kWh/ (%) (kWh/ (%) (kWh/ (%) (kWh/ (%) (kWh/ (%)
yr) yr) yr) yr) yr) yr) yr)

Quetta 10,239 84.62 1,859 15.41 2,513 33.32 5,029 66.74 4,277 35.34 8.95 0.35 12.41 0.49 1
Zhob 10,094 84.35 1,887 15.75 2,514 33.19 5,088 66.99 4,100 34.23 7.84 0.31 10.93 0.43 1
Loralai 9,877 84.53 1,811 15.52 2,514 33.27 4,832 66.86 4,063 34.85 8.35 0.47 12.14 0.47 1
Sibi 9,250 83.18 1,887 16.93 2,513 33.18 5,072 66.96 3,273 29.49 9.12 0.36 13.42 0.53 1
Nasirabad 9,720 84.34 1,812 15.71 2,516 34.13 4,865 65.95 3,872 33.60 6.53 0.25 9.75 0.38 1
Kalat 9,992 84.96 1,780 15.13 2,512 34.56 4,762 65.54 4,218 25.83 9.68 0.38 13.8 0.54 1
Makran 9,290 83.75 1,813 16.33 2,514 34.04 4,880 66.02 3,430 30.97 5.56 0.33 11.8 0.47 1

Fig. 7. Annual electricity production and consumption in seven divisions.

Fig. 9. Electricity production from PV and FC in seven divisions.

6.2. Electrical profile of optimal system configuration

The electrical profile of the optimal system configuration of each

Fig. 8. Load sharing by AC primary load and electrolyzer in seven divisions.
FC. On the other hand, the TNPC, COE, operating cost, and initial cost
are estimated to be $ 22,741, 0.433 $/kWh, 805.44 $/yr, and $ 6,285. In
Makran division, the optimal system configuration comprises 5.60 kW of
PV, 1.85 kW of EL, 1.10 kg of HT, and 0.70 kW of FC, while the costs of
the system are evaluated as $ 23,494 TNPC, 0.458 $/kWh COE, 832.75
$/yr operating cost, and $ 6,495 initial system cost. On the one hand,
Zhob accounts for the maximum TNPC, COE, operating cost, and the
initial cost of the winning PV-hydrogen system, among other divisions.
On the other hand, Kalat has a minimum aforementioned costs of
optimal system configuration, as shown in Fig. 6 and Table 4.
division is presented in Table 5. In addition, Fig. 7 exhibits the annual
electricity production and consumption. It can be observed from Fig. 7
that the maximum electricity production (12,098 kWh/yr) and excess
electricity (4,277 kWh/yr) are observed in the Makran division, while
minimum electricity production (11,103 kWh/yr) is noticed in Quetta
division. The maximum electricity consumption (7,597 kWh/yr) and
minimum electricity consumption (7,274 kWh/yr) are observed in
Quetta and Makran. Fig. 8 shows the percentage of load sharing by AC
primary load and electrolyzer load for all divisions of Balochistan. It can
be seen from Fig. 8 that in all divisions of Balochistan, electrolyzer
shares a maximum proportion of load consumption in contrast to the AC
primary load. Further, the maximum (34.5 %) and minimum (33.1 %)
load sharing by AC primary load are in Kalat and Sibi divisions, while
the maximum (66.9 %) and minimum (65.5 %) load sharing by elec­
trolyzer load are in Sibi and Kalat divisions. In addition, the capacity
shortage is within an acceptable limit in all divisions with a minimum
value of 9.75 kWh/yr in Nasirabad division and a maximum value of
13.8 kWh/yr in Kalat division. Unmet electric load is observed in the
range of 0.311 kWh/yr to 0.479 kWh/yr in all divisions. Since the
proposed system is solely based on PV-hydrogen, the renewable fraction
is 1 in all divisions. Even though little capacity shortage and unmet
electric load are observed, the optimal PV-hydrogen energy system is
capable of producing electricity that fulfills the energy demand of all
seven divisions of Balochistan and producing excess electricity.
Fig. 9 illustrates the percentage share of electricity production from
PV and FC for overall electricity production. Maximum electricity pro­
duction share from PV and FC are observed in Kalat (84.9 %) and Sibi
(16.9 %), whereas corresponding minimum values are observed in Sibi

11
T. Khan et al. Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284

Fig. 10. Monthly average power produced by PV and FC.

Table 6
PV performance of PV-hydrogen system and comparison with the studies having similar solar radiations and system architecture.
Division Load Rated Mean output Maximum Capacity PV Operation Levelized
capacity output factor penetration hours cost
(kWh/ (kW) (kW) (kWh/ (kW) (%) (%) (hrs/yr) ($/kWh)
day) day)

Quetta 6.91 5.70 1.17 28.12 5.68 20.54 406 4,357 0.01
Zhob 6.91 5.75 1.15 27.77 5.71 20.02 400 4,376 0.01
Loralai 6.91 5.65 1.13 27.13 5.62 20.01 392 4,376 0.01
Sibi 6.91 5.50 1.06 25.34 5.46 19.22 367 4,352 0.01
Nasirabad 6.91 5.80 1.11 26.61 5.69 19.17 385 4,392 0.01
Kalat 6.91 5.55 1.14 27.40 5.52 20.62 396 4,390 0.01
Makran 6.91 5.60 1.06 25.52 5.58 18.91 368 4,385 0.01
Eight North East Indian states 138 110–120 17–21 413–515 105–118 15.00–18.71 299–373 4,372–4,403 0.04–0.05
[31]
Andhra Paradesh India [59] 200 80 — — 78 22.60 — 4,386 —

Ekpoma, 61.54 54.74 9.93 226 — 17.26 — 4,415 —

Nigeria[61]
Bhopal, 70 5 — 22.78 3.90 — — 3,475 —
India [89]
Teleghan, 27 10 — 49.81 — — — 4,498 —
Iran [90]

(83.1 %) and Kalat (15.1 %) divisions. Fig. 10 represents the monthly
average power produced by PV panels and fuel cells in all divisions. In
Quetta, the maximum values of monthly average output power from PV
and fuel cell are observed in March (1.23 kW) and Dec (0.23 kW),
whereas the minimum values are noticed in Dec (1.09 kW) and from
April to June (0.20 kW). In Zhob, the highest values of monthly average
output power from PV and fuel cell are detected in Feb (1.26 kW), and in
November and December (0.23 kW), whereas the lowest values are seen
in July (1.07 kW) and May (0.20 kW). The monthly average output
power from PV is detected to be maximum (1.21 kW) in February and
minimum (1.06 kW) in July and August. On the other hand, the monthly
average output power from FC is observed to be maximum (0.23 kW) in
December and minimum (0.20 kW) from April to July and August. In
Nasirabad, the apex of monthly average output power from PV is
examined in Feb (1.09 kW), while corresponding FC power is detected
from April to June and Oct (0.20 kW). In addition, the monthly average
output power from PV is found to be minimum in July (1.03 kW), and
corresponding FC power is noticed in November and December (0.22
kW). In Kalat, on the one hand, the monthly average power output from
PV is observed to be highest (1.23 kW) in April and lowest (1.0 kW) in
Dec. On the other hand, the monthly average output power from FC is
observed to be highest (1.0 kW) in February, November, and December
and lowest (0.22 kW) from April to July. In Makran, the highest monthly
average PV power (1.10 kW) is observed in April, while the lowest
power (0.97 kW) is found in December. In November and December,
maximum average FC power (0.22 kW) is detected, whereas minimum
power (0.20 kW) is observed from April to July.
6.2.1. Performance of PV panel
The PV panel output profile of the optimal PV-hydrogen system for
all seven divisions is presented in Table 6. Furthermore, Fig. 11 exhibits
the monthly average output power from PV and fuel cell. From the rated

12
T. Khan et al. Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284

Fig. 11. Monthly average output power from PV and FC in seven divisions.

capacity of the PV panel, the annual mean output power and daily mean
output energy are observed as 1.17 kW and 28.12 kWh/day in Quetta,
1.15 kW and 27.77 kWh/day in Zhob, 1.13 kW and 27.13 kWh/day in
Loralai, 1.06 kW and 25.34 kWh/day in Sibi, 1.11 kW and 26.61 kW h/
day in Nasirabad, 1.14 kW and 27.40 kWh/day in Kalat, and 1.067 kW
and 25.52 kWh/day in Makran, respectively. The maximum PV output
power is found to be 5.68 kW in Quetta, 5.71 kW in Zhob, 5.62 kW in
Loralai, 5.46 kW in Sibi, 5.69 kW in Nasirabad, 5.52 kW in Kalat, and
5.58 kW in Makran, respectively. The capacity factor is defined as the
fraction of the mean electrical power generated by a PV panel to its rated

13
T. Khan et al. Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284

capacity. The maximum capacity factor is observed to be 20.62 % in

Kalat division, while the minimum (18.91 %) in Makran division. In
other divisions, it varies from 19.17 % to 20.54 %. PV penetration is the

generation
ratio of power generation from a PV panel to the total power generation

($/hr)

0.123
0.123
0.114
0.119
0.114
0.114
0.114
Fixed

cost
in a given time. Maximum PV penetration is recorded in Quetta with a
value of 406 %, while a minimum (367 %) is observed in Sibi. It can be
Capacity deduced from Table 6 that daily mean energy output is proportional to
factor the PV penetration. The operating hours of PV can be interpreted as the

28.31
28.74
29.56
29.52
29.61
29.03
29.65
number of hours in a year in which PV panel is generating power. The
(%) operating hours are in the range of 4,352 to 4,392 in all divisions.
Operational

6.2.2. Performance of fuel cell

The fuel cell is mainly providing electricity from dawn to sunset.
2.38
2.36
2.35
2.31
2.33
2.37
2.30
(yr)
life

Also, it is monitored to provide electricity during the day for a short

period whenever the load is at a peak or solar radiations are not suffi­
cient for PV to generate power. The fuel cell output profile of the optimal
(starts/
No of
starts

PV-hydrogen system for all seven divisions is presented in Table 7. The

406
404
399
392
397
411
399
yr)

electrical efficiency of FC is described as the electrical output energy

divided by the fuel (hydrogen) energy input, which is set as 51.3 % in
this work. Specific fuel consumption of fuel cell is described as the
operation
Hours of

(hrs/yr)

average quantity of fuel (hydrogen) consumed by the fuel cell to produce

6,308
6,352
6,374
6,504
6,443
6,331
6,522

1 kWh of electricity. The minimum electrical output from the fuel cell is
observed as 0.26 kW in Quetta and Zhob divisions, whereas it is
inspected to be 0.24 kW in all other divisions. The maximum electrical
output from the fuel cell is monitored as 0.70 kW in all divisions. The
efficiency
electrical

mean electrical output from fuel cell is detected in the range of 0.27 kW
51.30
51.30
51.30
51.30
51.30
51.30
51.30
Mean

(%)

to 0.29 kW. The specific fuel consumption is observed to be 0.059 kg/

kWh in all divisions, whereas annual hydrogen consumption ranges
from 102 kg/yr to 109 kg/yr. The lowest input fuel energy (3,560 kWh/
(kWh/yr)
energy

yr) is inspected in Kalat division, whereas the corresponding highest

3,718
3,774
3,622
3,774
3,624
3,560
3,626
input
Fuel

value (3,774 kWh/yr) is observed in Zhob and Sibi divisions. The

maximum FC operational hours are recorded as 6,522 hr/yr in Makran
Specific hydrogen

division, while the minimum (6,308 hr/yr) in Quetta division. The

number of fuel cell starts throughout the year in all divisions is found to
consumption

be in the range of 392 h to 411 h. The fuel cell should replace after every
(kg/kWh)

2.38 years in Quetta, which is the operational life of the fuel cell. In the
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059
0.059

rest of all divisions, the operational life of the fuel cell is between 2.30 yr
and 2.37 yr. FC hourly performance throughout the year can be
visualised in Fig. B1.
consumption
Hydrogen

6.2.3. Performance of electrolyzer

Table 8 represents the electrolyzer output profile of the optimal PV-
(Kg)

108
109
104
109
104
102
105

hydrogen system for all divisions. Maximum input power and maximum
output hydrogen production in all divisions are in the range of 1.75 kW
to 2 kW and 0.03 kg/hr to 0.04 kg/hr. In addition, mean input power
electrical

and mean output hydrogen production are in the range of 0.54 kW to

output
Mean

(kW)

0.29
0.29
0.28
0.29
0.28
0.28
0.27

0.58 kW and 0.01 kg/hr to 0.012 kg/hr. It is also observed from Table 8
that the total input energy is between 4,762 kWh/yr and 5,088 kWh/yr.
The maximum and minimum hydrogen production are noted in Zhob
(110 kg/yr) and Kalat (103 kg/yr). Specific fuel consumption is
FC profile of PV-hydrogen system for seven divisions.
Maximum
electrical

approximately 46.40 kWh/kg in all divisions. The maximum capacity

output

factor is 31.54 % in Loralai, whereas the minimum capacity factor is

(kW)

0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70
0.70

observed as 27.85 % in Nasirabad. In all other divisions, it varies from

28.61 % to 30.2 %. The operational hours of the electrolyzer are in the
range of 6,451 hr/yr to 6,698 hr/yr.
Minimum
electrical
output

6.2.4. Performance of hydrogen tank

(kW)

0.26
0.26
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24
0.24

Table 9 illustrates the hydrogen tank profile for all divisions. The
initial tank level relative to the tank size is set at 10 %. Hydrogen at the
start of the year in hydrogen tank is 0.10 kg in Quetta, Zhob, and Sibi
capacity

divisions, 0.11 kg in Nasirabad and Makran divisions, and 0.09 kg in

Rated

(kW)

0.75
0.75
0.70
0.75
0.70
0.70
0.70

Loralai and Kalat divisions. Hydrogen level at the end of the year is
noted to vary from 0.53 kg to 0.93 kg. Hydrogen tank autonomy is
Nasirabad

maximum (127 hr) in Nasirabad and Makran divisions, while minimum

Division

Makran
Loralai
Table 7

Quetta

Kalat

(104 hr) in Loralai and Kalat divisions. In Quetta, Zhob and Sibi di­
Zhob

Sibi

visions, hydrogen tank autonomy is 116 hr.

14
T. Khan et al. Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284

Table 8
Electrolyzer profile of PV-hydrogen system for seven divisions.
Divisions Rated Minimum Maximum Mean Total Capacity Hours of Minimum Maximum Mean Total Specific
capacity input input input input factor operation output output output production consumption
power energy

(kW) (kW) (kW) (kW) (kW h/ (%) (Hr/yr) (kg/hr) (kg/hr) (kg/ (kg/yr) (kWh/kg)
yr) hr)
Quetta 1.90 0 1.90 0.57 5,029 30.23 6,622 0 0.04 0.01 108 46.40
Zhob 1.90 0 1.90 0.58 5,088 30.61 6,698 0 0.04 0.01 110 46.40
Loralai 1.75 0 1.75 0.55 4,832 31.54 6,591 0 0.03 0.01 104 46.40
Sibi 2.00 0 2.00 0.57 5,072 28.92 6,513 0 0.04 0.01 109 46.40
Nasirabad 2.00 0 2.00 0.55 4,865 27.85 6,451 0 0.04 0.01 105 46.40
Kalat 1.80 0 1,80 0.54 4,762 30.20 6,479 0 0.03 0.01 103 46.40
Makran 1.85 0 1,85 0.55 4,880 30.14 6,620 0 0.03 0.01 105 46.40

is compatible with AC primary load. Table 10 shows the inverter profile

Table 9 of the optimal PV-hydrogen system for all divisions. It can be noticed
Hydrogen tank profile of PV-hydrogen system for seven divisions.
that the maximum output power (0.63 kW), mean output power (0.28
Division Hydrogen Energy Tank Hydrogen Hydrogen kW), and capacity factor (35.9 %) are the same for all considered di­
storage storage autonomy at the at the
visions. Since the efficiency of the inverter is taken as 90 % in the present
capacity capacity start of the end of the
year year study, the energy input and output are observed to be in the range of
2,792 kWh/yr to 2,795 kWh/yr and 2,513 kWh/yr to 2,516 kWh/yr.
(Kg) (kWh) (hr) (kg) (kg)
Quetta 1.00 33.35 116 0.10 0.83
Furthermore, electrical losses are between 272 kWh/yr and 279 kWh/yr
Zhob 1.00 33.32 116 0.10 0.83 in all divisions.
Loralai 0.90 30.04 104 0.09 0.66
Sibi 1.00 35.02 116 0.10 0.63
Nasirabad 1.10 36.71 127 0.11 0.93 6.3. Sensitivity analysis
Kalat 0.90 30.09 104 0.09 0.53
Makran 1.10 36.72 127 0.11 0.72 Various sensitive parameters influence the total NPC, COE, and
technical performance of the system. Therefore, HOMER provides an
option to specify sensitive parameters, and their corresponding values
can be included in HOMER. The results can be further evaluated to see
how the parameters affect the financial and technical results. For the
present study, the most uncertain parameters are estimated to be the fuel
cell cost, household load demand, and the nominal discount and infla­
tion rates.

Fig. 12. Monthly average inverter power profile and load throughout the year.

6.2.5. Performance of inverter

The monthly average input and output power of an inverter
throughout the year are presented in Fig. 12. The former is in the range
of 0.315 kW to 0.325 kW, while the latter is between 0.285 kW and Fig. 13. Effect of variation in cost of proposed energy system components
0.295 kW. It is also noticed from Fig. 12 that the capacity of the inverter on COE.

Table 10
Inverter profile of PV-hydrogen system for seven divisions.
Division capacity Minimum output Maximum output Mean output Capacity factor Hours of operation Input energy Output energy losses

(kW) (kW) (kW) (%) (hrs/yr) (kWh/yr) (kWh/yr) (kWh/yr)

Quetta 0.80 0 0.63 0.28 35.90 8,724 2,792 2,513 276
Zhob 0.80 0 0.63 0.28 35.90 8,729 2,794 2,514 279
Loralai 0.80 0 0.63 0.28 35.90 8,729 2,793 2,514 274
Sibi 0.80 0 0.63 0.28 35.90 8,727 2,792 2,513 272
Nasirabad 0.80 0 0.63 0.28 35.90 8,727 2,792 2,513 279
Kalat 0.80 0 0.63 0.28 35.90 8,735 2,795 2,516 276
Makran 0.80 0 0.63 0.28 35.90 8,725 2,793 2,514 275

15
T. Khan et al.
Fig. 14. Effect of variation in FC cost on TNPC and COE.
Fig. 15. Effect of variation in load on TNPC and COE.
6.3.1. Fuel cell
Firstly, the effect of each component’s cost on TNPC and COE is
analyzed. It can be observed from Fig. 13 that, except for the FC cost,
none of the components’ costs significantly influence the TNPC and
COE. Therefore, FC cost is taken as one of the sensitive parameters.
TNPC and COE are decreasing linearly as the cost of FC decreases. It is
Fig. 16. Effect of variation in nominal discount rate on TNPC and COE.
16
Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284
noticed from Fig. 14 that by decreasing the cost of FC by 60 %, TNPC and
COE were reduced by 31.12 % and 23.40 %. It may be declared that the
proposed system will be more economical, provided the cost of FC is
minimal. Currently, the cost of FC is high, but it is expected to drop
significantly with the advancement and massive production of FC
technology.
6.3.2. Electric load
There is a high probability that, with time, the local inhabitants of
the considered divisions may consume more electricity by adding more
electrical appliances, such as electric cookers, microwave ovens, and
water heaters. Thus, the electric load is also taken as the sensitive
parameter. Fig. 15 illustrates the effect of varying electric loads on TNPC
and COE. The electric load increased by 10 % from its initial value of
6.91 kWh/day to 7.60 kWh/day, which caused TNPC to increase by
1.37 % and reduced COE by 8.91 %. The results revealed that the pro­
posed system would be more economical for large-scale electric load, for
example, community load, village load, etc.
6.3.3. Nominal discount rate and inflation rate
The nominal discount rate and inflation rate in Pakistan have
significantly deviated in past years, affecting both TNPC and COE. In this
study, rather than using assumed values of the nominal discount rate
and inflation rate as sensitive variables, the historical trend of variation
in the nominal discount rate and inflation rate over the past 25 years has
been included.4 It can be observed from Fig. 16 that the nominal dis­
count rate varies from 5 % to 15 %, which leads to a decrease in the
TNPC by half and an increase in the COE by 26.90 %. In addition, by
varying the inflation rate from 2 % to 22 %, TNPC increases almost 4
times, while COE decreases by 89.93 %. Conclusively, the nominal
discount rate and inflation rate significantly impact the energy system’s
economy. The proposed system can be more cost-effective if the eco­
nomic condition of Pakistan tends to be more stable. The effect of eco­
nomic parameters on the prices of commodities is comprehensively
discussed in [91]. Cash flow summary of each component of the pro­
posed energy system is presented in Fig. B2.
4
https://www.sbp.org.pk/.
T. Khan et al. Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284

Fig. 17. Electrical profile and stored hydrogen in all four seasons.

the reliability of the proposed system. Fig. 17 represents the daily

average maximum electrical profile of the proposed system during all
four seasons in Balochistan. The PV output power remains above the
load demand during the day, and FC output power is consistently above
the load demand from dawn to sunset. Thus, the proposed energy system
satisfies the load demand during all four seasons. In addition, the min­
imum level of stored hydrogen in the hydrogen tank is more than 70 %
during all four seasons. Therefore, the authors confirmed that the pro­
posed PV-hydrogen energy system is technically robust to electrify rural
houses of the seven divisions of Balochistan.

7. Comparison of the proposed energy system

7.1. Cost comparison with grid extension

Fig. 18. Break-even distance of proposed PV-hydrogen system.
All the seven regions investigated in this work belong to rural areas
where grid electricity is unavailable. Therefore, to compare the cost of
Table 11 the proposed PV-hydrogen energy system with the grid electricity cost,
Break-even distance and corresponding NPC and COE. the breakeven distance is calculated by investigating the grid extension
Division Breakeven distance (km) NPC COE analysis. It is worth noting that the proposed energy system is for a
(M$) ($/kWh) single household load, which is cost-effective in contrast to grid exten­
Quetta 43.73 1.85 0.372 sion. Thus, to make the comparison, a load of a single household taken in
Zhob 44.85 1.87 0.376 this study is extended to 100 households (691 kWh/day). All the asso­
Loralai 40.24 1.80 0.345
ciated grid extension costs are taken by conducting a formal interview
Sibi 44.42 1.86 0.374
Nasirabad 42.12 1.82 0.364
with a representative of the concerned authority, NTDC,5 because the
Kalat 39.27 1.78 0.342 cost details are not publicly available. Grid extension cost, including HV
Makran 41.69 1.81 0.362 transmission lines, substation, distribution transformer, civil work,
consultancy, contingencies cost, etc., for 1 km is $ 301,625. The annual
O&M cost is taken as 2 % of the capital cost. The COE is 0.12 $/kWh in
6.4. Robustness of the system
urban areas of the studied regions, assumed for this analysis. Fig. 18
revealed the breakeven distance for all seven divisions. It can be
Since solar radiations and household load consumption may vary
throughout the year depending on weather conditions and load de­
mands, a robustness analysis is performed in all four climates to observe
5
National Transmission & Despatch Company (NTDC).

17
T. Khan et al. Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284

Table 12
Comparison of the proposed energy system with other similar studies having identical system architecture.
Ref. Load Nominal discount rate Inflation rate COE NPC Excess electricity Capacity shortage Unmet electric load

(kWh/day) (%) (%) ($/kWh) ($) (%) (%) (%)

[34] 50 68 — 1.7209 363,0009 19.51 1.08 —
[31] 138 61 — 0.509–0.689 3,27,557–4,43,004 21.40–41.10 0 0
[49] 16,000 10 — 0.120 8,942,636 — — —
[52] 594 12.25 17 0.334 3,244,897 — — —
[57] 6.80 6 8 0.195 12,282 — — —
[61] 61.54 — 12 0.041 41,455 — — 0.40
[89] 70 — — 0.196 56,970 — 0.02 1.70
[90] 27 12 — 3.35 237,509 — — —
[92] 42 68 — 2.4362 — — 1 0.80
[93] 21 6.75 — 0.43 20,570 — — —
This study 6.91 14.5 12.67 0.433–0.475 22,741–24,400 29.41–35.33 0.38–0.54 0.25–0.47
1
Real discount rate.
2
€/kWh.

observed in Table 11 that the proposed PV-hydrogen energy system is
more economical than grid extension if the grids are located beyond the
distances of 39.27 km to 44.85 km in seven divisions.
7.2. Comparison with other studies
rate, and cost of components. On the other hand, the reliability of the
system is dependent on the individual’s system design parameters and
configurations. It is also worth noting that the various authors have
taken the hypothetical value of the real discount rate as 6 %. However,
in the present work, the discount rate and inflation rate are taken from
the state bank of Pakistan to reflect the real cost of the energy system.

Table 1 represents the overview of previous studies conducted on
hydrogen-based renewable energy systems. In contrast, Table 12 com­
pares this work with similar studies having identical system architec­
ture. Among other studies in Table 1, [31,49,52,57] studied the PV-
hydrogen system, the same as the energy system modeling of the pre­
sent study. In [31], the authors considered 138 kWh/day daily load
demand. NPC and COE were in the range of $ 3,27,557– 4,43,004 and
0.509–0.689 $/kWh for all states of India. Excess electricity produced by
the system was between 41.1 % and 21.4 %, while the capacity shortage
and the unmet electric load were reported to be between 0 and 1 %. The
nominal discount rate was assumed to be 6 %. However, in present
study, the COE and NPC ranged from 0.433 $/kWh to 0.475 $/kWh and
$ 22,741 to $ 24,400. The COE of the present study seems to be better
than [31], while no considerable difference is found in excess electricity,
capacity shortage, and unmet electric load. In [49], researchers pro­
posed a PV-hydrogen system to satisfy the 16,000 kWh/day load de­
mand of a city in France. The nominal discount rate was taken as 10 %.
The COE and NPC were 0.12 $/kWh and $ 8,942,636. The reason for
such low COE is that the authors have taken the cost of FC as $ 3,000/
5kW, which is 75 % lower than the cost of FC in the present study. In
section 6.3, it has been evaluated that the cost of FC plays a crucial role
in both TNPC and COE. The authors [52] have studied rural areas of
Egypt having a daily load of 594 kWh/day. The nominal discount and
inflation rates were taken as 12.25 % and 17 %, respectively. The COE
and NPC were calculated to be 0.334 $/kWh and $ 3,244,897, which is
comparable with the economy of the present study. No information
about excess electricity, capacity shortage, and unmet electric load was
provided. In [57], the load was taken to be 6.8 kWh/day, a typical
household load. The nominal discount and inflation rates were consid­
ered 6 % and 8 %. As a result, the COE and NPC were estimated to be
0.195 $/kWh and $ 12,282. No detail was found in the article for excess
electricity, capacity shortage, and unmet electric load. After comparing
the present study with the previously published articles, it can be
concluded that the economy of the reported energy systems is signifi­
cantly affected by economic parameters, such as discount rate, inflation
8. Safety and protection considerations of utilizing H2 based
energy system
Firstly, the proposed energy system is based on hydrogen, which has
low viscosity, is highly diffusible, and has a wide flammability range.
Secondly, fuel cell requires careful maintenance for safe and optimal
operation, which needs technical expertise. Therefore, safety and pro­
tection precautions must be considered, which are highlighted as
follows:
a) Fuel cells should be employed, operated, and maintained in a suit­
able place to ensure safe operation. In the planning phase of the FC
system deployment, it should be considered whether it is required to
separate the fuel cell occupied room from other rooms. Rooms con­
nected to the fuel cell occupied space must be gas tight.
b) Hydrogen leakage is a significant operational problem associated
with hydrogen-based systems. Hydrogen can leak from high-pressure
storage tanks almost three times as quickly as methane gas. However,
the risk of leakage can be considerably reduced by using adequate
sealing interfaces and equipment.
c) Hydrogen ignites with an invisible flare; therefore, it is challenging
to spot. Even so, it is possible to avoid the generation of potentially
explosive compounds by utilizing proper ventilation if a hydrogen
system is employed in a confined room.
d) Since hydrogen is a colorless and odorless gas, it cannot be sensed by
humans; hence, tools should be available to detect its presence in
potential spots where the leakage is possible. In addition, employing
a hydrogen detection system is crucial to activate the alarms, safe
operations, and when necessary, the safe evacuation of individuals.
e) Adequate tools and expertise are needed to allow safe cleaning,
testing, and servicing of the hydrogen system. Therefore, it is highly
recommended that consumers acquire basic training for smooth, safe
and optimal operation of the hydrogen-based energy system.

18
T. Khan et al.
9. Policy implications
The Government of Pakistan may contribute a vital role in electri­
fying remote areas having no access to grid electricity with the
hydrogen-based renewable energy system. To successfully deploy the
proposed energy system across the country, the policy implications
based on the obtained results are presented as follows:
a) Fig. 13 and Fig. 14 show that the cost of FC significantly affects the
COE and NPC. Therefore, the government should provide incentives
and tax relaxations to consumers to purchase FC and other hydrogen
equipment. It will improve the individual consumers’ purchasing
capacity and increase the employment of hydrogen-based RES
among the local inhabitants.
b) Fig. 15 represents that the COE decreases linearly with an increase in
load, which calls for the mass-scale deployment of such projects. In
this context, policymakers should consider employing a hydrogen-
based distributed energy system to serve the large-scale load, such
as community load and village load.
c) Fig. 17 shows that the proposed system is technically reliable to
satisfy the load demand. In addition, the breakeven analysis in
Fig. 18 showed that the proposed system is more economical than
grid extension for rural areas. Therefore, policymakers should pro­
mote hydrogen-based RES for rural electrification by providing
attractive financial schemes to investors and stakeholders to invest in
mega projects. In addition, the government should provide subsidies
to relevant microfinancing projects in rural regions. Moreover, non-
profit organizations that help rural villages in employing rE-based
energy systems should be given tax relaxation and subsidized
equipment to encourage them to expand hydrogen-based RES
projects.
d) In this study, satellite-based solar radiation data is utilized due to the
unavailability of ground-based solar radiation data in the studied
region. Currently, nine ground-based solar measurement stations are
installed in four provinces of Pakistan, which are insufficient.
Therefore, it is of utmost need to install enough ground-based solar
radiation measurement stations across the country, and relevant data
should be made available for researchers to conduct cutting-edge
research and investors to make decisions for profitable investments.
e) It is also worth noting that the O&M of fuel cell and protection of the
high-pressure hydrogen tank is challenging. Thus, the concerned
regulatory authority must arrange hands-on consumer training
before providing a permit for hydrogen-based RES. In addition, the
government should arrange mass-level training sessions, workshops,
etc., for different types of consumers (residential, commercial, and
industrial) to effectively use hydrogen-based energy system.
Furthermore, policymakers must ensure that only authorized com­
panies are employing hydrogen-based RES, and after-sales O&M
services are supposed to be provided.
f) The proposed hydrogen-based energy system can help to achieve the
2030 green energy goal of Pakistan. Therefore, the government
should start state-level R&D programs aiming to explore the poten­
tial of hydrogen production through different RE resources to meet
the energy demand of the country and encourage relevant ministries
to implement such projects successfully.
19
Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284
10. Conclusion and future recommendations
Motivated by the 2030 green energy goal of Pakistan and the
hydrogen production potential of Balochistan through solar energy, this
study proposed the PV-hydrogen energy system to electrify rural
households in all seven divisions of Balochistan. The proposed system is
thoroughly investigated using HOMER software. Sensitivity analysis is
conducted to analyze the impact of uncertain variables on the system’s
economy. In addition, robustness analysis is carried out to confirm the
technical reliability of the system. Breakeven distance is also estimated
to compare the cost of the proposed off-grid system with grid extension.
The simulation results verified that the proposed system is optimally
sized, economically feasible, and technically reliable. The key points of
the investigation of the proposed system are summarized as follows:
a) To satisfy the daily annual load demand of 6.91 kWh/day of a typical
household in all divisions of Balochistan, the optimal system con­
figurations were found to be in the range of 5.50–5.80 kW for solar
panel, 0.70–0.75 kW for fuel cell, 1.75–2 kW for electrolyzer,
0.9–1.10 kg for hydrogen tank capacity, and 0.8 kW for an inverter.
b) NPC and COE of the optimal system configurations were observed to
be in the range of $ 22,741 to $ 24,400 and 0.433 $/kWh to 0.475
$/kWh. Zhob division accounts for the highest NPC ($ 24,400) and
COE (0.475 $/kWh). Contrarily, NPC ($ 22,471) and COE (0.433
$/kWh) are estimated to be the lowest for Kalat division.
c) The annual energy demand is mainly satisfied by PV panels during
the day, having an electricity production share of 83.18 % to 84.96
%. In contrast, FC met the energy demand mostly during the night,
with electricity production share between 15.04 % and 16.82 %,
respectively.
d) The excess annual electricity produced is between 29.49 % and
35.34 %. The capacity shortage and unmet electric load are less than
0.479 % and 0.549 %, respectively.
e) Electrolyzer shares a maximum percentage of load consumption
(65.54 % to 66.99 %) in contrast to AC primary load (33.18 % to
34.56 %).
f) The hydrogen production from the electrolyzer is in the range of 103
kg/yr to 110 kg/yr. In addition, the hydrogen level relative to the
tank size remains above 70 % throughout the year.
g) Sensitivity analyses showed that FC significantly impacts the sys­
tem’s economy among other components of the proposed energy
system. COE and NPC decrease linearly as the FC cost decreases. An
increase in load demand by 10 % causes COE to reduce by 4.2 %,
while increasing NPC by 1.5 %. Furthermore, by decreasing the
nominal discount rate from 15 % to 5 %, the COE decreases by 26.9
%, and NPC doubles.
h) Robustness analysis confirmed that the proposed PV-hydrogen sys­
tem is technically robust to supply continuous electricity to satisfy
the energy load demand throughout the year.
i) Breakeven analysis revealed that the proposed energy system is more
economical than grid extension if the grids are located beyond the
distances of 39.2 km to 44.8 km in seven divisions.
Based on the findings of this study, it can be concluded that the
proposed PV-hydrogen system is a feasible solution to electrify rural
households in Balochistan in terms of cost, performance, and reliability.
The Government of Pakistan should consider the policy implication,
enlightened in this work (section 10), for the wider deployment of
T. Khan et al. Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284

hydrogen-based energy systems. Recommendations for future studies in

4.870
6.900

7.050
11.920
17.720
23.020
26.630
27.140
25.610
22.340
16.760
11.600
line with the present work are suggested as follows:

AT
a) The scope of the present study can be further expanded by incor­
porating a wide range of loads, such as villages, university campuses,

3.630
4.400
5.190
6.480
7.130
7.410
6.970
6.560
6.000
5.080
3.990
3.390
hospitals, factories, and the whole city.

DR
b) For different regions of Pakistan, other renewable energy resources,
for example, wind, hydro, and biomass, can be included in the pro­
posed energy system in the future.

0.598
0.604
0.586
0.631
0.642
0.651
0.622
0.623
0.644
0.657
0.630
0.596
Kalat
c) This work can be further extended to study utility scale economic

CI
models, such as sale and purchase of electricity to and from the grid,
wherein the profits earned are a function of the costs associated with

13.310
15.940
21.690
27.670
32.970
35.390
34.600
32.810
30.530
25.730
20.170
15.300
several input parameters. To study the cause and effect process with

AT
the simultaneous variation of different cost factors, the Monte Carlo
simulation tool can be used to generate the probability distribution
function for each input variable under a localized scenario to study

3.860
4.680
5.270
6.170
6.640
6.620
6.120
5.880
5.460
4.960
4.060
3.540
DR
their effect on the profits earned.
d) Stochastic TEA data analysis can be performed to evaluate the eco­

Nasirabad
nomic model in a decision-oriented manner to predict the process

0.617
0.629
0.588
0.599
0.599
0.583
0.547
0.557
0.581
0.630
0.624
0.603
economics based on the changes in assumptions and input variables

CI
to facilitate its real-time implementation, therefore, minimizing the
risk and uncertainties associated with the system.

10.240
12.690
18.310
24.570
30.220
33.180
32.880
31.350
28.380
23.070
17.460
12.510
e) Researchers can further explore the safety and protection aspects of

AT
hydrogen-based energy systems, specifically for domestic consumers
and generally for all types of consumers.

3.590
4.340
4.960
6.150
6.720
6.920
6.430
6.020
5.650
4.780
3.910
3.290
The proposed energy system can be successfully employed in other

DR
rural areas across the globe, provided that solar energy resources, load
profile, and climate conditions are quite similar to the considered di­

0.599
0.602
0.563
0.601
0.605
0.607
0.573
0.572
0.610
0.624
0.626
0.588
visions in the present study.

Sibi

CI
CRediT authorship contribution statement

7.030
9.410

9.310
14.920
21.020
26.780
29.850
29.700
28.480
25.140
19.570
14.020
AT

Tahir Khan: Conceptualization, Methodology, Software, Writing –

original draft, Investigation. Muhammad Waseem: Visualization,
Monthly data of clearness index, daily solar radiation, and ambient temperature for seven divisions.

Validation, Writing – review & editing. Mustafa Tahir: Formal analysis,

3.650
4.560
5.250
5.990
6.750
6.830
6.410
5.950
5.620
4.910
3.980
3.460
DR

Investigation. Shengyuan Liu: Writing – review & editing, Investiga­

tion. Miao Yu: Supervision, Funding acquisition, Visualization.
Loralai

0.623
0.643
0.602
0.587
0.608
0.598
0.570
0.567
0.611
0.650
0.650
0.634
CI

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial

11.670
17.680
23.610
27.330
27.750
26.350
22.740
16.860
11.120
4.140
6.270

6.390
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
AT

the work reported in this paper.

3.620
4.490
5.150
5.830
6.600
6.650
6.280
5.890
5.530
4.840
3.850
3.370

Data availability
DR

Data will be made available on request.

0.640
0.649
0.599
0.575
0.594
0.580
0.558
0.563
0.608
0.654
0.650
0.641
Zhob

Acknowledgment
CI

This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation

4.230
6.230

6.550
11.320
17.290
22.800
26.670
27.350
25.900
22.300
16.520
11.200

of China under grant number 52077194. The first author would like
AT

thank his mother for her moral support and kind prayers for this work.
3.610
4.460
5.340
6.230
6.940
7.140
6.670
6.210
5.760
4.990
4.080
3.420

Appendix A
DR

Table A1Table A2.

Quetta

0.644
0.627
0.611
0.610
0.625
0.625
0.594
0.591
0.625
0.658
0.664
0.623
CI
Table A1

Month

May

Nov
Mar

Aug

Dec
Apr

Jun
Feb

Sep
Jan

Oct
Jul

20
T. Khan et al. Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284

Table A2
Daily load consumption calculation of household.
Equipment Consumption (W/unit) Quantity Daily operating hours (Kwh/day) (Kwh/month)

LED lights 24 5 10 1.2 36

Fan 50 2 18 1.8 54
Television 60 1 4 0.24 7.2
Cell phone Charger 10 2 1 0.02 0.6
Computer 250 1 4 1 30
Washing Machine 1000 1 0.3 0.3 9
Iron 1500 1 0.3 0.3 12
Water pump 250 1 1 0.25 7.5
fridge 100 1 24 2.4 72
Total/house 6.91 207.3

Appendix B

Fig. B1Fig. B2.

Fig. B1. FC hourly performance throughout the year in seven divisions.

21
T. Khan et al. Energy Conversion and Management 271 (2022) 116284

Fig. B2. Cash flow summary of each component of the proposed energy system.

22
T. Khan et al.
Appendix C. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.enconman.2022.116284.
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