4.

Describe any cycles and irregularities in both models？

As the cyclical variation occurs when the data exhibit rises and falls that are not of a fixed
frequency and a long-term fluctuation (longer than a year). It also does not follow any regular
pattern but move in a somewhat unpredictable manner. In addition, irregular variation is the fourth
component in a time series. In many situations, the value of a variable may be completely
unpredictable, changing in a random manner. Irregular variation describes such movements.
In both models, they contain cycle because there contain increase and decrease in t=39 to 78 and
t=91 to 117, which two period are over a year. However, there is a deep decrease in the period
t=13 to 26 rather than no deep decrease at other period in both model. Therefore, both model have
cyclical movement and irregularities

5.Calculate MAD, MSE, and MAPE by using the in-sample data only (i.e. measure in-sample
performance).

Multiplicative
Additive
6.Based on the in-sample data only, generate both the additive and multiplicative decomposition
models again by using Minitab software and obtain their MAD, MSE, and MAPE.
VISITOR ARRIVALS M

Time Series Plot of Number of Visitor Arrivals

VISITOR ARRIVALS M

Autocorrelation Function: Number of Visitor Arrivals

Autocorrelations

Lag ACF T LBQ

1 0.731006 8.40 72.15

2 0.674372 5.39 134.03

3 0.721901 4.81 205.49

4 0.733554 4.20 279.85

5 0.636217 3.24 336.22

6 0.610275 2.89 388.50

7 0.589883 2.63 437.74

8 0.632231 2.68 494.76

9 0.584473 2.35 543.88

10 0.516653 2.00 582.58

11 0.508396 1.91 620.37

12 0.642155 2.35 681.15

13 0.471802 1.66 714.24

14 0.410313 1.41 739.47

15 0.447894 1.52 769.80

16 0.455349 1.52 801.42

17 0.385643 1.26 824.29

18 0.331068 1.07 841.30

19 0.332293 1.07 858.58

20 0.357149 1.14 878.73

21 0.302530 0.95 893.31

22 0.239968 0.75 902.57

23 0.278344 0.87 915.14

24 0.371502 1.15 937.75

25 0.212295 0.65 945.20

VISITOR ARRIVALS M

Time Series Decomposition for Number of Visitor Arrivals

Method

Model type Multiplicative Model

Data Number of Visitor Arrivals

Length 132

NMissing 0

Fitted Trend Equation

Yt = 1835067 + 8472×t

Seasonal Indices

Period Index

1 0.97573

2 0.99275

3 0.98154

4 1.01997

5 0.96320

6 0.90753

7 1.04716

8 1.13446

9 0.91576

10 1.00910

11 1.00206

12 1.05073

Accuracy Measures

MAP 4.94026E+00

MAD 1.14806E+05

MSD 2.12655E+10
VISITOR ARRIVALS M

Time Series Decomposition for Number of Visitor Arrivals

Method

Model type Additive Model

Data Number of Visitor Arrivals

Length 132

NMissing 0

Fitted Trend Equation

Yt = 1833772 + 8499×t

Seasonal Indices

Period Index

1 -60910

2 -15055

3 -40243

4 57749

5 -90279

6 -223836

7 121270

8 304349

9 -194937

10 26632

11 7292

12 107968

Accuracy Measures

MAP 5.10903E+00

MAD 1.19042E+05

MSD 2.23258E+10