PROMEDIO MOVIL

meses tasa de interes Yt pronostico Ῡ error error absoluto

1 9.5
2 9.3
3 9.4
4 9.6 9.4 0.2 0.2
5 9.8 9.43333333333333 0.3666667 0.366666666667
6 9.7 9.6 0.1 0.1
7 9.8 9.7 0.1 0.1
8 10.5 9.76666666666667 0.7333333 0.733333333333
9 9.9 10 -0.1 0.1
10 9.7 10.0666666666667 -0.3666667 0.366666666667
11 9.6 10.0333333333333 -0.4333333 0.433333333333
12 9.6 9.73333333333333 -0.1333333 0.133333333333
13 9.63333333333333

DAM 0.281481481481482

meses tasa de interes Y pronostico Ῡ error error absoluto

1 9.5
2 9.3
3 9.4
4 9.6
5 9.8 9.45 0.35 0.35
6 9.7 9.525 0.175 0.175
7 9.8 9.625 0.175 0.175
8 10.5 9.725 0.775 0.775
9 9.9 9.95 -0.05 0.05
10 9.7 9.975 -0.275 0.275
11 9.6 9.975 -0.375 0.375
12 9.6 9.925 -0.325 0.325
9.7

DAM 0.3125
EL PROMEDIO MOVIL DE 3 MESES ES EL QUE PROPORCIONA UN MENOR MARGEN DE ERROR
Microsoft Excel 16.0 Answer Report
Worksheet: [ejercicios pro.xlsx]preg 2
Report Created: 17/11/2022 02:11:47 p. m.
Result: Solver found a solution. All Constraints and optimality conditions are satisfied.
Solver Engine
Engine: GRG Nonlinear
Solution Time: 0.062 Seconds.
Iterations: 7 Subproblems: 0
Solver Options
Max Time Unlimited, Iterations Unlimited, Precision 0.000001, Use Automatic Scaling
Convergence 0.0001, Population Size 100, Random Seed 0, Derivatives Forward, Require Bounds
Max Subproblems Unlimited, Max Integer Sols Unlimited, Integer Tolerance 1%, Assume NonNegative

Objective Cell (Min)

Cell Name Original Value Final Value
$E$34 E abs 1.4661757696 0.9718883088

Variable Cells
Cell Name Original Value Final Value Integer
$H$20 ALFA 0.2 0.6339742691 Contin

Constraints
Cell Name Cell Value Formula Status Slack
$H$20 ALFA 0.6339742691 $H$20<=1 Not Binding 0.3660257309
$H$20 ALFA 0.6339742691 $H$20>=0 Not Binding 0.6339742691
 PROMEDIOS MOVILES
meses PORCENTAJES pronostico error eror absoluto
1 80
2 82
3 84
4 83 82 1 1
5 83 83 0 0
6 84 83.333333333333 0.66666666667 0.6666666666667
7 85 83.333333333333 1.66666666667 1.6666666666667
8 84 84 0 0
9 82 84.333333333333 -2.3333333333 2.3333333333333
10 83 83.666666666667 -0.6666666667 0.6666666666667
11 84 83 1 1
12 83 83 0 0
13 83.333333333333 0.8148148148148
DAM

SUAVIZAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL
MESES PORCENTAJES Y PRONOSTICO Ῡ ERROR E abs
1 80 80 0 0
2 82 80 2 2
3 84 81.267948538132 2.73205146187 2.7320514618681
4 83 82.99999886672 1.1332797E-06 1.1332796959E-06
5 83 82.999999585191 4.1480953E-07 4.1480953428E-07
6 84 82.999999848169 1.00000015183 1.000000151831
7 85 83.633974213492 1.36602578651 1.3660257865081
8 84 84.499999413019 -0.499999413 0.4999994130186
9 82 84.183012650617 -2.1830126506 2.1830126506168
10 83 82.79903880108 0.20096119892 0.2009611989197
11 84 82.926443030276 1.07355696972 1.073556969724
12 83 83.607050525458 -0.6070505255 0.6070505254575
13 83.222196112295 0.9718883088361
 MAPE

0.01204819277
0
0.00793650794
0.01960784314
0
0.02845528455 EL PRONOSTICO DE PROMEDIO MOVIL PROPORCIONA MEJORES PRONOSTICOS
0.00803212851
0.0119047619
0
0.0097760799
MAPE

ALFA 0.633974269
MAPE
0
0.0243902439
0.03252442217
1.36539722E-08
4.99770523E-09
0.01190476371
0.01607089161
0.00595237396
0.0266221055
0.00242121926
0.01278044012
0.00731386175
0.011665028
RCIONA MEJORES PRONOSTICOS, POR SU M ENOR MARGEN DE ERROR
 X Y
AÑO INSCRIPCION PRONOSTICO
1 20.5 20.3956
2 20.2 20.0442
3 19.5 19.6928
4 19 19.3414
5 19.1 18.99
6 18.8 18.6386

LAS INSCRIPCIONES HAN DIM

ELABORAR GRAFICA DE TEND

21

20.5
f(x) = − 0.35142
20

19.5

19

18.5

18

17.5
0 1 2
S INSCRIPCIONES HAN DIMINUIDO TODOS LOS AÑOS.

ABORAR GRAFICA DE TENDENCIA LINEAL PARA CONOCER ECUACION DE LA MISMA Y TENDENCIA

INSCRIPCION
21

20.5
f(x) = − 0.351428571428571 x + 20.7466666666667
20

19.5

19

18.5

18

17.5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Microsoft Excel 16.0 Answer Report
Worksheet: [ejercicios pro.xlsx]PREGUNTA 4
Report Created: 17/11/2022 02:39:27 p. m.
Result: Solver found a solution. All Constraints and optimality conditions are satisfied.
Solver Engine
Engine: GRG Nonlinear
Solution Time: 0.016 Seconds.
Iterations: 2 Subproblems: 0
Solver Options
Max Time Unlimited, Iterations Unlimited, Precision 0.000001, Use Automatic Scaling
Convergence 0.0001, Population Size 100, Random Seed 0, Derivatives Forward, Require Bounds
Max Subproblems Unlimited, Max Integer Sols Unlimited, Integer Tolerance 1%, Assume NonNegative

Objective Cell (Min)

Cell Name Original Value Final Value
$Q$30 Tabasco E abs 114238.57627 59497.166667

Variable Cells
Cell Name Original Value Final Value Integer
$V$23 Oaxaca ALFA 0.2 1 Contin

Constraints
Cell Name Cell Value Formula Status Slack
$V$23 Oaxaca ALFA 1 $V$23<=1 Binding 0
$V$23 Oaxaca ALFA 1 $V$23>=0 Not Binding 1
Entidades 2021
1T P 2T P 3T P 4T P
Estados Unidos Mexicanos 99,404,880 111,229,676 109,447,339 119,687,910
Aguascalientes 2,826,863 3,525,354 2,477,193 2,702,956
Baja California 9,947,252 11,678,658 12,964,422 13,410,858
Baja California Sur 68,982 76,524 76,648 120,370
Campeche 3,217,232 3,838,841 4,210,588 4,117,950
Coahuila de Zaragoza 12,254,687 13,331,597 12,986,198 14,949,246
Colima 191,993 252,904 256,821 205,593
Chiapas 215,737 280,174 230,619 253,859
Chihuahua 13,418,993 15,199,963 14,338,889 15,584,900
Ciudad de México 534,711 607,677 670,768 727,221
Durango 736,854 798,245 841,696 874,738
Guanajuato 6,435,503 6,974,642 6,616,296 6,924,421

Guerrero 295,895 260,496 293,188 308,196

Hidalgo 300,658 433,997 503,653 599,611
Jalisco 5,054,607 5,664,853 5,923,446 6,518,314
México 3,790,680 3,786,318 4,467,486 5,498,340
Michoacán de Ocampo 1,866,141 1,621,965 1,508,356 2,042,459
Morelos 936,508 755,357 722,027 783,169
Nayarit 48,665 57,462 89,373 53,195
Nuevo León 9,202,428 10,756,347 10,571,212 10,967,329
Oaxaca 215,320 266,797 267,481 311,105
Puebla 3,710,527 4,011,508 3,424,726 3,677,020
Querétaro 3,415,844 3,523,333 3,762,414 3,858,731
Quintana Roo 2,643 2,823 3,068 24,526
San Luis Potosí 3,217,018 4,034,979 3,146,675 3,395,767
Sinaloa 1,178,198 741,250 503,746 498,825
Sonora 4,768,451 5,820,599 4,531,183 5,633,188
Tabasco 1,423,549 1,777,040 2,080,380 2,196,393
Tamaulipas 6,935,922 7,577,168 8,472,074 9,580,143
Tlaxcala 422,911 503,231 502,491 500,024
Veracruz de Ignacio de la Llave 1,434,427 1,713,570 1,714,570 1,920,694
Yucatán 260,921 261,918 300,509 338,522
Zacatecas 1,074,761 1,094,086 989,144 1,110,248
EL METODO MAS PRECISO PARA EL ESTADO DE CIUDAD DE MEXICO ES EL DE TENDENCIA LINEAL, YA QUE MUESTRAN UN MA
 Entidades
PROMEDIO MOVIL
Ciudad de México
2021 trimestres VALOR MERCANCIA Y
1TP 1 534711
2TP 2 607677
3TP 3 670768
4TP 4 727221
2022 1T P 5 709966
2T P 6 857184

A QUE MUESTRAN UN MAPE DE MENOR PORCENTAJE. ES DECIR, TIENE UN MENOR MARGEN DE ERROR.

Ciudad de México 534,711 607,677 670,768

SUVISAMIENTO EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE

trimestres VALOR MERCANCIA Y

1 534711
2 607677
3 670768
4 727221
5 709966
6 857184

trimestres VALOR MERCANCIA Y

1 534711
2 607677
3 670768
4 727221
5 709966
6 857184
7

Chart Title
1000000
900000
 Chart Title
1000000
900000
800000 f(x) = 56448.1428571429 x + 487019.333333333
700000
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
 PRONOSTICO Ῡ ERROR E ABS Eabs ^2 MAPE

571194 99574 99574 9914981476 0.148447749

639222.5 87998.5 87998.5 7743736002 0.121006544
698994.5 10971.5 10971.5 120373812.25 0.015453557
718593.5 138590.5 138590.5 19207326690 0.161681156
783575 84283.625 9246604495 11%
DAM MES MAPE

727,221 709,966 857,184

O EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE

PRONOSTICO Ῡ ERROR E abs Eabs^2 MAPE

534711 0 0 0 0
534711 72966 72966 5324037156 0.120073658
607677 63091 63091 3980474281 0.094057856
670768 56453 56453 3186941209 0.077628396
727221 -17255 17255 297735025 0.024303981
709966 147218 147218 21673139524 0.17174609
857184 59497.16667 5743721199 8%
DAM MES MAPE

PRONOSTICO Ῡ E E ABS Eabs^2 MAPE

543467 -8756 8756 76667536 0.016375201

599915 7762 7762 60248644 0.012773233
656363 14405 14405 207504025 0.021475383
712811 14410 14410 207648100 0.019815159
769259 -59293 59293 3515659849 0.083515267
825707 31477 31477 990801529 0.036721404
882155 22683.83333 843088280.5 3%

hart Title
hart Title

8571429 x + 487019.333333333

3 4 5 6 7
ALFA
1