NAME :JOHN ERROL C.

CARCELLAR October 26 2020 / 8:00 am

COURSE and YEAR : BSED SCIENCE 3
INSTRUCTOR: MR. ELMER A. IRENE
SUBJECT: METEOROLOGY (Weather forecasting)

LPA east of Visayas could become a tropical depression – PAGASA

The low-pressure area (LPA) East of Visayas may likely to develop into a tropical depression
this Wednesday, October. 26, said the Philippine
Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical
Services Administration (PAGASA)
The LPA was estimated at 1,020 kilometers east of
Eastern Visayas, as of 8 a.m. on Wednesday.
According to PAGASA weather specialist Obet
Badrina, the LPA could become a tropical depression
this Wednesday, and when it becomes a cyclone, it
will be given the local name “ PAENG” he said the
LPA may likely to approach the eastern section of
Luzon where it is possible to recurve.
“ Recurvature means that it may not make landfall.
But we are still not ruling out the possibility that it
will make landfall, especially in the Visayas, Central
Luzon or Southern Luzon. But again, based on the
latest data, this recurvature is more possible based on
the average tracks during the month of October.
Since it has not yet become a tropical Cyclone, uncertainly is still high on the LPA’s track and it
needs to be continuously monitored. In the next 24 hours, the trough or extension of the LPA may
bring scattered rain showers and thunderstorms over Palawan, Visayas, and Mindanao.

LPA now tropical depression ‘Paeng’ (11:00 am)

The low-pressure area (LPA) off eastern Visayas has escalated into a tropical depression called
“PAENG”, the 15th storm to hit the country this year and the forth this October, the state-run
weather agency said on Wednesday.
In its 11am bulletin, the Philippine atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
(Pagasa) said Paeng is
forecast to intensify into
a tropical storm on
Thursday. It may even
reach the typhoon
category by Saturday.
Paeng will begin to
move north-westward on
Saturday afternoon or
evening and may pass
close to northern Luzon
on Sunday or Monday.
All landfall scenario in
northern Luzon is not ruled out.
Estimated some 965 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas, Pagasa said the tropical depression is
moving West-northwestward slowly while packing maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers
per hour (kph) near the center and gustiness of up to 55ph.
Due to the shear line and the trough of Paeng, heavy rain are possible over Quezon, Bicol
Region, Visayas and the northern and western portions of Mindanao, the latest bulletin said.
Based on the latest forecast scenario, tropical cyclone wind signal may be raised in some area in
Eastern Visayas and Bicol Region on Thursday morning at the Earliest.
Per latest track and intensify forecast, the most likely highest wind signal that will be hoisted is
Signal No. 4.
Pagasa said the shearline or the point where the cold and warm air converge is also affecting
Metro Manila and Calabarzon (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal and Quezon) where cloudy skies
with scattered rain showers or thunderstorms may prevail. Meanwhile, the northern monsoon or
“amihan” is bringing cloudy skies with rains over Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative
Region, Aurora, Ilocos Region and the rest of Central Luzon, Pagasa said.

Temperature:
High to be near 27℃/81℉
Low to be 23℃/74℉

Humidity: to be near 81%

Atmospheric pressure: 1010 mbar
Wind: 45-kilometer pe hour (kph)
Gustiness: up to 55 ph
Precipitation: 31∘ rain and cloudiness : cloudy

There are a few steps to forecasting the weather. These involves:

Data collection and observation
This step involves using various tools to collect weather data. Such as lot sensors, weather
balloons and weather radar. Meteorologist need multiple datasets to make he best prediction
possible.

Analysis of weather patterns and data

Analysis on weather patterns involves taking this data and using forecasting models to
determine future trends, forecast and temperature or determine the likelihood of a severe weather
event.

Predicting weather’s impact

Weather insights should then be used to determine the impact it will have on the surrounding
area. Meteorologists determines how dangerous the weather will be, the range of temperature,
and the type of precipitation. Together with machine learning, meteorologist can determine how
communities and businesses should prepare for upcoming weather

SOURCE: https://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph Weekly Weather Outlook- Forecast Storm Surge

http://youtu.be/NxjjNoB0MFo
https://www.ibmm.com/weather/industries/broadcast-media/complete-guide-accurate-weather-
forecasting