Yêu cầu bồi thường 1,500,000.

00

Chấp nhận giải quyết (John thỏa thuận ko đưa ra 750,000.00

Đề nghị ngược lại (Couter offer) của công ty Bảo 400,000.00

Khả năng phản hồi của John

1. Chấp nhận 400,000.00 0.10 400,000.00
2. Từ chối và chọn đề nghị ra tòa giải quyết 3 trường hợp 0.40 -
0.40 1,500,000.00
0.40 750,000.00
3. Đề nghị ngược lại 600,000.00 0.50 600,000.00

CÁCH CỦA THẦY

Allied Ra tòa 1,500,000.00 có thể bỏ trường hợp này

Trả 400 400,000.00 Ra tòa

mất 400000
mất 600000

Trả 750 750,000.00

 xác suất cuối cùng
0.10 40,000.00
0.20 0.08 -
0.30 0.12 180,000.00
0.50 0.2 150,000.00
0.50 300,000.00

670,000.00

ể bỏ trường hợp này

825,000.00 0.4 670,000.00 => OPTION

400,000.00 0.1
600,000.00 0.5
Driver Points Poles Wins Top 10 Top 5 Top 10 Winnings ($)
Tony Stewart 2403 1 5 19 9 19 6,529,870
Carl Edwards 2403 3 1 26 19 26 8,485,990
Kevin Harvick 2345 0 4 19 9 19 6,197,140
Matt Kenseth 2330 3 3 20 12 20 6,183,580
Brad Keselowski 2319 1 3 14 10 14 5,087,740
Jimmie Johnson 2304 0 2 21 14 21 6,296,360
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 2290 1 0 12 4 12 4,163,690
Jeff Gordon 2287 1 3 18 13 18 5,912,830
Denny Hamlin 2284 0 1 14 5 14 5,401,190
Ryan Newman 2284 3 1 17 9 17 5,303,020
Kurt Busch 2262 3 2 16 8 16 5,936,470
Kyle Busch 2246 1 4 18 14 18 6,161,020
Clint Bowyer 1047 0 1 16 4 16 5,633,950
Kasey Kahne 1041 2 1 15 8 15 4,775,160
A.J. Allmendinger 1013 0 0 10 1 10 4,825,560
Greg Biffle 997 3 0 10 3 10 4,318,050
Paul Menard 947 0 1 8 4 8 3,853,690
Martin Truex Jr. 937 1 0 12 3 12 3,955,560
Marcos Ambrose 936 0 1 12 5 12 4,750,390
Jeff Burton 935 0 0 5 2 5 3,807,780
Juan Montoya 932 2 0 8 2 8 5,020,780
Mark Martin 930 2 0 10 2 10 3,830,910
David Ragan 906 2 1 8 4 8 4,203,660
Joey Logano 902 2 0 6 4 6 3,856,010
Brian Vickers 846 0 0 7 3 7 4,301,880
Regan Smith 820 0 1 5 2 5 4,579,860
Jamie McMurray 795 1 0 4 2 4 4,794,770
David Reutimann 757 1 0 3 1 3 4,374,770
Bobby Labonte 670 0 0 2 1 2 4,505,650
David Gilliland 572 0 0 2 1 2 3,878,390
Casey Mears 541 0 0 0 0 0 2,838,320
Dave Blaney 508 0 0 1 1 1 3,229,210
Andy Lally* 398 0 0 0 0 0 2,868,220
Robby Gordon 268 0 0 0 0 0 2,271,890
J.J. Yeley 192 0 0 0 0 0 2,559,500
 n = 35
1 SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.90580815933
R Square 0.8204884215
Adjusted R Square 0.79655354437
Standard Error 581382.196795
Observations 35

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 4 46347328154802 1.16E+13 34.280034818
Residual 30 10140157762495 3.38E+11
Total 34 56487485917297

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 3140367.08692 184229.0242876 17.046 0.0000000
Poles -12938.920802 107205.0751453 -0.120693 0.9047388
Wins 13544.8126874 111226.2162983 0.121777 0.9038876
Top 5 71629.3932795 50666.86770704 1.413732 0.1677342
Top 10 117070.576824 33432.883815319 3.50166 0.0014703

Bỏ đi biến Top10
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.86436007076
R Square 0.74711833192
Adjusted R Square 0.72264591243
Standard Error 678818.93791
Observations 35

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 3 42202836252885 1.41E+13 30.52899335
Residual 31 14284649664412 4.61E+11
Total 34 56487485917297

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 3,513,802.61 175400.2590615 20.03305 0.00000
Poles 69,097.09 122146.668297 0.565689 0.57568
Wins 93,690.22 127087.8643206 0.737208 0.46654
Top 5 201,957.58 40140.1288671 5.031314 0.00002

KẾT QUẢ KHÔNG HỢP LÝ, DO CÓ SỰ TƯƠNG QUAN CAO GIỮA 2 biến top5 và top10

Giả sử bỏ 2 biến Top5, Top10

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.73526804218
R Square 0.54061909385
Adjusted R Square 0.51190778722
Standard Error 900508.059147
Observations 35

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 2 30538213450444 1.53E+13 18.829484173
Residual 32 25949272466853 8.11E+11
Total 34 56487485917297

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 3,778,869.15 221938.62141437 17.02664 0.0000
Poles 375,967.81 140390.62105483 2.678012 0.0116
Wins 572,157.20 111840.4975478 5.115832 0.0000
Significance F
8.619E-11

Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
2764121 3516613 2764121 3516613
-231881 206003.1 -231881 206003.1
-213609 240699.1 -213609 240699.1
-31846.16 175104.9 -31846.16 175104.9
48791.52 185349.6 48791.52 185349.6

Significance F
2.209E-09

Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
3156071 3871534 3156071 3871534
-180023 318216.9 -180023 318216.9
 -165507 352887.6 -165507 352887.6
120091.2 283823.9 120091.2 283823.9

Poles Wins Top 5 Top 10

Poles 1
Wins 0.133135 1
Top 5 0.437312 0.72517 1
Top 10 0.457812 0.697178 0.901745 1

Significance F
3.933E-06

Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
3326795 4230943 3326795 4230943
90001.47 661934.1 90001.47 661934.1
344345.6 799968.8 344345.6 799968.8
Driver Points Poles Wins Top 2-5 Top 6-10 Top 5 Top 10 Winnings ($)
Tony Stew 2403 1 5 4 10 9 19 6,529,870
Carl Edwa 2403 3 1 18 7 19 26 8,485,990
Kevin Har 2345 0 4 5 10 9 19 6,197,140
Matt Kens 2330 3 3 9 8 12 20 6,183,580
Brad Kese 2319 1 3 7 4 10 14 5,087,740
Jimmie Jo 2304 0 2 12 7 14 21 6,296,360
Dale Earnh 2290 1 0 4 8 4 12 4,163,690
Jeff Gord 2287 1 3 10 5 13 18 5,912,830
Denny Ha 2284 0 1 4 9 5 14 5,401,190
Ryan New 2284 3 1 8 8 9 17 5,303,020
Kurt Busc 2262 3 2 6 8 8 16 5,936,470
Kyle Busc 2246 1 4 10 4 14 18 6,161,020
Clint Bow 1047 0 1 3 12 4 16 5,633,950
Kasey Ka 1041 2 1 7 7 8 15 4,775,160
A.J. Allm 1013 0 0 1 9 1 10 4,825,560
Greg Biffl 997 3 0 3 7 3 10 4,318,050
Paul Mena 947 0 1 3 4 4 8 3,853,690
Martin Tru 937 1 0 3 9 3 12 3,955,560
Marcos A 936 0 1 4 7 5 12 4,750,390
Jeff Burto 935 0 0 2 3 2 5 3,807,780
Juan Mont 932 2 0 2 6 2 8 5,020,780
Mark Mart 930 2 0 2 8 2 10 3,830,910
David Rag 906 2 1 3 4 4 8 4,203,660
Joey Loga 902 2 0 4 2 4 6 3,856,010
Brian Vic 846 0 0 3 4 3 7 4,301,880
Regan Smi 820 0 1 1 3 2 5 4,579,860
Jamie Mc 795 1 0 2 2 2 4 4,794,770
David Reu 757 1 0 1 2 1 3 4,374,770
Bobby Lab 670 0 0 1 1 1 2 4,505,650
David Gill 572 0 0 1 1 1 2 3,878,390
Casey Mea 541 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,838,320
Dave Blan 508 0 0 1 0 1 1 3,229,210
Andy Lall 398 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,868,220
Robby Go 268 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,271,890
J.J. Yeley 192 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,559,500
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9058081593
R Square 0.8204884215
Adjusted R Square 0.7965535444
Standard Error 581382.19679
Observations 35

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 4.6347328E+13 1.1587E+13 34.28003482 8.619E-11
Residual 30 1.0140158E+13 3.3801E+11
Total 34 5.6487486E+13

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

Intercept 3140367.09 184229.024288 17.0459953 0.00000 2764121 3516613
Poles -12938.92 107205.075145 -0.1206932 0.90474 -231881 206003.1
Wins 202244.78 90225.8683391 2.24153878 0.03254 17978.98 386510.6
Top 2-5 188699.97 34586.3222563 5.45591314 0.00001 118065.3 259334.7
Top 6-10 117070.58 33432.8838153 3.50165955 0.00147 48791.52 185349.6
KẾT LUẬN: biến Poles không có ý nghĩa, có thể do mức độ tương quan với winnings thấp. 3 biến còn lại có ý nghĩa, trong đó biế
Giải pháp:bỏ biến Poles đi để chạy lại mô hình

Xét tương quan

Poles Wins Top 2-5 Top 6-10
Poles 1
Wins 0.1331352657 1
Top 2-5 0.4889342753 0.53722014581 1
Top 6-10 0.3300564641 0.41968886328 0.41113137 1

Xét tương quan bao gồm Winnings

Poles Wins Top 2-5 Top 6-10 Winnings ($)
Poles 1
Wins 0.1331352657 1
Top 2-5 0.4889342753 0.53722014581 1
Top 6-10 0.3300564641 0.41968886328 0.41113137 1
Winnings ($) 0.4060870622 0.66156174346 0.82261636 0.642173415 1

CHẠY LẠI MÔ HÌNH KHI BỎ BIẾN POLES

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9057600442
R Square 0.8204012576
Adjusted R Square 0.8030207341
Standard Error 572067.03396
Observations 35

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 3 4.6342404E+13 1.5447E+13 47.20233309 1.147E-11
Residual 31 1.0145081E+13 3.2726E+11
Total 34 5.6487486E+13

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%

Intercept 3138093.9836 180327.475473 17.4021955 1.492508E-17 2770314 3505874
Wins 204,735.49 86426.8087297 2.36888872 0.0242538 28466.85 381004.1
Top 2-5 186,778.04 30210.4669044 6.18256055 0.0000007 125163.4 248392.7
Top 6-10 116,188.77 32102.0739546 3.61935411 0.0010390 50716.16 181661.4
 Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
2764121 3516613
-231881 206003.1
17978.98 386510.6
118065.3 259334.7
48791.52 185349.6
òn lại có ý nghĩa, trong đó biến WINS có tác động lớn nhất.
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
2770314 3505874
28466.85 381004.1
125163.4 248392.7
50716.16 181661.4