REVIEW ON LIC 2010

SPECIAL OPERATONS & UNCONVENTIONAL WARFARE

IN THE NEXT CENTURY

BY

COL ROD PASHCALL

Publisher – Macmillan Publishing Company, New Work.

Pages ( 166)

1. In this book Col Rod Paschall has made a attempt to forecast the future of warfare. As he
says, “It is impossible to predict the future, yet almost everyone does it”. His deep understanding
of emerging world scenarios and likely behaviour of various nations in the early part of twenty
first century has clearly manifested in this book. The subject has been covered in nine chapters.

2. In chapter one, the author outlines the likely role of special forces in the emerging
insurgency and counter insurgency scenario. He discusses various definitions related to the
subject. He defines conflicts at three levels viz ‘low intensity conflict’, ‘mid-intensity conflict’
and ‘high intensity conflict’. In this chapter he also discusses Soviet, British and US models of
special forces. He visualises the special forces of the West assisting the insurgents in Russia and
other tgt countries. He also projects a scenario of NATO vs Warsaw Pact nations conflict and the
spl forces of NATO op behind en lines exploiting the existing weaknesses in communist
hinterland where a large segment of dissident population is available to revolt against the govt.

3. In chapter two, the author reasons out the likely world political scenario at the end of cold
war. He visualises ‘the pentapolar world of 2010’. The five poles are USA, Russia, China, Japan
and West Europe. Close integration of EEC proceeding as visualised. Third world countries are
seen increasingly authoritarian, armed, populated, poor and engaged in conflict. The term
developing world is considered no longer appropriate because about one third of these countries
are experiencing economic regression. Third world will undoubtedly see the vast majority of all
LIC. Some universal (Western) values spreading world wide are covered under the heading ‘A
world of diffusion’.

4. Spl operations and LIC Technology in 90s and early 21st Century are predicted in chapter
three. Technological reqmts for spl ops forces for the coming decades are analysed in this
chapter. The chapter also covers what technology the terrorists are likely to utilise. RPVs are
perceived to be a very useful tool in the hands of nations supporting insurgency in another
country. The chapter also covers the likely developments in comns and their effect on terrorists
and counter terrorism ops. The other issues covered in this chapter are the ability to cause rain,
fog & other climate changes. Sustainability of spl forces in LIC scenario is also analysed in
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detail in this chapter. Interestingly Rod Paschall predicts the end of mech warfare due to its
rising costs as compared to anti tank and anti aircraft eqpt.

5. The author has not restricted himself to the study of LIC; he has analysed the role of spl
forces in high intensity conflict in chapter four. The chapter also covers the importance of taking
care of civil populations of the areas that are captured. It is covered under the heading ‘Civil
Affairs and Psy Ops’.

6. Spl ops in mid – intensity conflict are amply covered in Chapter Five. The author opines
that the mid – intensity conflicts have left the problems unresolved. Here again he recounts the
perceived role of mech forces and their actual performance. He elaborates with interesting figs
that mech warfare has failed to achieve the speed of ops it was expected to. In this chapter he
also brings in an interesting dimension wherein he criticises the existing selection system for
officers. He is highly appreciative of the British SAS method of selection where the volunteers
are tested under trying conditions and only 15 – 25 % of candidates are able to complete the
course, others dropping enroute. Their performance has proved beyond doubt the efficiency of
their near perfect selection method. The Americans have adopted the same w/o hesitation. ‘LIC :
Terrorism and Counter Terrorism’ are studied in Chapter Six. In this chapter the author has
analysed various dimensions of terrorism and the shape that terrorism is likely to take by 2010.
He lays emphasis on defeating the strat of recognition followed by the terrorists. If the world
can pursue what he advocates, the terrorists will be left with little motive to proceed.

7. Chapter Seven is devoted to ‘LIC : Insurgency and Counter Insurgency’. Here the author
sees reversal of roles between the East and the West. He finds that the communist states and
authoritarian states will be more susceptible to insurgency and he sees a very imp role for spl
forces in supporting insurgencies in these countries. The impact of likely developments in
technology on insurgency and Cl are analysed logically and in detail.

8. ‘LIC : Peacemaking and Peacekeeping’ are dealt in Chapter Eight. The author questions
the usage of the term peacekeeping and advocates peacemaking as applicable to most areas. He
strongly advocates emergence of commercial organisations replacing regular armed forces for
UN msns which makes an interesting reading.

9. In Chapter Nine, he summarises the entire discussion.

10. Although the book was written in 1990 and the author did not have knowledge of the
developments that have taken place since then, yet it makes a very interesting reading. There are
thought provoking issues raised by the author which are and will remain applicable to the present
and future world. The book is a must read for all army offrs and mil thinkers and planners.

Reviewed by
SSS