ASSIGNMENT COVER

Event number
202100626

Course title PROGRAMME IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

Module title PM PRINCIPLES,PRACTICE AND SCHEDULING

Due date 30/08/2022

Lecturer
Prof Krige Visser

Course coordinator
Nadine Scott
I understand that this assignment contributes to the assessment of my competency for the module/subject, mentioned above. I hereby
confirm that the attached assignment is my own work and I am familiar with the policy on plagiarism of the University of Pretoria
(http://upetd.up.ac.za/authors/create/plagiarism/students.htm)

Assignments not submitted on the due date before 23:59 will be considered as late submissions. The highest final mark that may be
awarded for a late submission is 50% unless arranged otherwise. Proof must be submitted with the assignment where such
arrangements were made.

Delegate ID number (Required) 8311230424080

Surname and initials GUMEDE L.P

First name LUNGILE

Signature

Email address GUMEDELUNGILE60@GMAIL.COM

Date of submission 30/08/2022

Lecturer signature Result

Lecturer comments:

1
INTRODUCTION

The Koch Transfer Tower 03 De-Dusting Upgrade Project requires the replacement
of equipment & the introduction of new equipment requiring electrical &
instrumentation reticulation & tie-in. these are namely the removal of the vacuum
system, replacement of the dust collector introducing a dust collector fan & a 2-stage
LP blower.

CONDITIONS OF SERVICE

The contractor shall familiarise themselves with the full scope on the conditions of
the plants especially where the dust collector, dust collector fan & LP blower systems
will be required.

SCOPE OF WORK

The Contractor shall be responsible for the supply of equipment and materials,
supply of labour and supervision, to install, test and commission the works as
detailed below
 Reticulate power supply to the 2-stage LP Blower as per the electrical design
attached, terminate, test & commission the LP Blower.
 Reticulate power supply to the Dust Collector Fan as per the electrical design
attached, terminate, test & commission the Dust Collector Fan.

Engineering, Equipment Supply and Construction

The contractor shall be responsible and accountable for

 Supply all equipment and materials, supply of labour and supervision, to
construct, test and commission the 1st and 2nd Stage LP Air Blower and the
Dust Collector Fan systems as designed and proposed.
 The installation of all equipment shall comply with the relevant designs codes,
the South African Occupation Health and Safety Act (Act No 85 of 1993)
Requirements.
 The operating conditions shall be considered i.e. dust from alumina, heat and
environmental conditions.
 All design, procedures, materials and equipment shall be in accordance with
the current editions of the relevant national and international standards and
codes.
 Detailed information shall be made available with the technical
documentation. Materials of constructions shall be defined with the tender

Project Execution Strategy

 The design shall be provided, review and signed off by end April 2023.
 The manufacturing, site construction shall then be completed.
 All construction work shall be completed by 10 July 2023.

2
Budget Summary:
Structural Fabrication & Erecting (LP Blower, Dust Collector & Fan installation &
Concrete Plinth construction) R 551 400.00
Component Manufacture, Fabrication & Supply (Screening station; air-slides &
compressed air reticulation) R 845 850.00
Equipment Manufacture, Supply & Installation (Head box, tail load station, roller &
tracking idler & scraper installation) R 990 700.00
Scaffolding; Rigging & Craneage R 175 650.00
Project Management & Supervision R 50 000.00

TOTAL for this EP Progressive Supplement R2 613 600.00

3
WORK BREAKDOWN STRUCTURE

Conveyor dust mitigation Project

A B C D

DESIGN(H1) BUYING EQUIPMENT

(H2) COMMISSIONIN
G (H4)
CONSTRUCTION
(H3)

EVALU
ATING
QUOTATIONH2A ELETRICIANS
H3A1 TESTINGH4A
PREVIOUS DESIGN

H1A

PROPOSING NEW OBTAININ

G FITTERH3A2 EQUIPMENT

DESIGNH1 B FINANCEH2B HANDOVERH4B

INSTRUMENT
ATIONH3A3

REFINANCING TRAININGH4 C
DESIGN APPROVAL
H2B1 AUTOMATIONH3A
H1C

INSTALLING
H3A5

4
GANNT CHART

INSTALLATION OF DEDUSTING UNIT TT3 ON TRACK LOW RISK MED RISK HI RISK UN ASSIGNED

TASK NAME DURATION START FINISH

MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY
Conveyor Dust 2022/03/15 2022/07/30
120 days
Mitigation
2021/03/15 2021/03/25
do concept study 10days

2022/04/15 2022/04/10
Design basis 15 days

Present proposals to T&L;

Compare to previous 2022/04/11 2022/04/28
2 wks
reports and approve
concept from

Define scope of work;

2022/05/01 2022/05/12
include warrantee 1 wk
definition
Initiate financial proposal
2022/05/13 2022/05/21
on sole 1 wk
source supply
2022/05/22 2022/05/27
Buy equipment 5days

2022/05/28 2022/06/29
installation 30 days

2022/06/30 2022/07/06
connection 5days

2022/07/07 2022/07/12
testing 5days

2022/07/15 2022/07/20
commissioning 5days

Project deliverable hand 2022/07/25 2023/07/27

2days
over

5
RISK EVENTS

1. Faulty design can require the new equipment to be sent back to the
manufacturer causing delays on the project timeline increasing cost on hired
equipment like scaffolding and cherry pickers.
2. The project will be running during the year of wage review the wage
negotiations may lead to possibility of strike causing delays on the progress of
the project.
3. Some of the tasks requires a working at height which will expose people to
danger of falling that may lead to serious injury or fatality
4. Bad weather conditions: rain might cause delays on project, task that requires
Cherrie pickers and rigging maybe delayed due to rain and wind
5. Incompetent workers: having workers who are not experienced with the task
can result to bad outcome of the project leading to project failure.
6. Gas release from Foskor which is our neighbouring company can cause bad
impact on people’s health which will affect the pace of the project.
7. Production at GTC3 may be affected if the project doesn’t finish on time
planned as the plant is receiving alumina through manual transportation since
conveyer belt to GTC3 will be out of service until the completion of tt3 project.
8. Conflict between contracted company and subcontractors may cause delay
and affecting cost
9. Project leader resignation can cause confusion, delay and may lead to poor
quality project
10. Poor induction can put subcontractor who are new to the site to high risk
inside premises leading to injuries, braking of company policies leading to
delays and cost.
11. In effective communication may lead to corrective controls rather than
proactive approach during project resulting to loss of time and money
12. External political affairs

3. Semi-quantitative analysis

Probability scale -5point

1-unlikely
2- Low likelihood
3- Likely
4-most likely
5-near certainty

6
Risk value calculation
The project is estimated to cost about R2 613 600.00
Table 1: Likelihood indicators and probabilities
Likelihood level Description of likelihood Probability occurrence

1 Not likely 10%

2 Low likelihood 30%

3 Likely 50%
4 Highly likely 70%

5 Near certainty 90%

Consequence scale-5 point

1- Low consequences (loss with only time loss)
2-minor consequences (financial loss with time)
3-average consequences (5-10 %financial with time loss)
4- Medium loss or injury
5-extreme loss with fatality

Table 2: Rating of consequences

Likelihood level Cost Schedule

1 Lower than 2% impact of Very minor or no slip in

project cost milestone (week)
2 Between 2% and 5% Minor slip in milestone
impact of project cost (weeks)
3 Between 5% and 10% Moderate slip in milestone
impact of project cost (several weeks to two
months)
4 Between 10% and 20% Major slip in milestone
impact of project cost (two to six months)
5 Larger than 20% impact of Critical slip in milestone
project cost (more than 6 months)

7
Semi –quantitative analysis Calculation form
Risk no
1. R= P × C = 3 ×3 =12
2. R= P × C = 4 × 3 =16
3. R= P × C = 2 × 5 =10
4. R= P × C = 2 × 2 =4
5. R= P × C = 2 × 4 =8
6. R= P × C = 2 × 5 =10
7. R= P × C = 3 ×3=9
8. R= P × C = 2 × 3 =6
9. R= P × C = 2 × 4 =8
10. R= P × C = 2 × 5 =10
11. R= P × C = 2 × 3 =6
12. R = P× C = 3 × 2 =6

Table 3: Semi- quantitative analysis

Numbers Risk Probability Consequence Risk Value

Description
1 Faulty design 3 3 12

2 Riots 4 2 16
3 Injury 2 5 10
4 Bad weather 2 2 4
5 Incompetent workers 2 4 8
6 Health risk 2 5 10
7 Production threatened 3 3 9

8 Conflict between main 2 3 6

contractor and
subcontractor
9 Resignation 2 4 8

10 Non conformance 2 5 10

11 Ineffective 2 3 6
communication

12 External affairs and 3 2 6

politics

8
Table 4: Full quantitative analysis

Numbers Probability Total loss (R) Expected loss

(R)

1 0.6 990,700 594,420

2 0.6 2613,001 1567 ,800

3 0.7 17500,00 122,500

4 0.4 9800,00 392,000

5 0.6 680,000 408,000

6 0.7 540,000 378,000

7 0.6 680,000 408,000

8 0.5 240,000 120,000

9 0.6 240,000 144,000

10 0.7 860,000 602,000

11 0.5 580,000 290,000

12 0.5 80,000 40,000

9
Table 5: Risk sorting

Risk Numbers Probability Total loss (R) Expected loss

(R)

2 0.6 2613,001 1567 ,800

10 0.7 860,000 602,000

1 0.6 990,700 594,420

5 0.6 680,000 408,000

7 0.6 680,000 408,000

4 0.4 9800,00 392,000

6 0.7 540,000 378,000

11 0.5 580,000 290,000

9 0.6 240,000 144,000

3 0.7 17500,00 122,500

8 0.5 240,000 120,000

12 0.5 80,000 40,000

risk Map
700

600 602 594,42

500

400 408 408 392

378
300 290
200
144 122,5120
100
40
0 0 0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Linear ()

10
SECTION B
QUESTION 7 Pareto Analysis
Risk
No Value
1 4
2 36
3 1
4 25
5 5
6 8
7 12
8 20
9 15
10 2
11 4
12 2
13 3
14 1
15 5
16 1
17 6
18 1
19 12
20 3
Sum of RV 166
80% of Sum of RV 133
20% contribute 80 134

Critical risks
Risk 2, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9, 17 and 19 (yellow highlighted) since they contribute 80% of the
overall risks.

11
QUESTION 8 plotting a threshold line
Risk value
No
1 3
2 49
3 6
4 8
5 35
6 9
7 15
8 1
9 20
10 2
11 4
12 24
13 3
14 12
15 5
16 1
17 8
18 3
19 2
20 1
Sum of RV 211
80% of Sum of RV 169
20% contribute to 80%
(highlighted in yellow)
172

The threshold line is given by non-highlighted yellow risk values: 3, 6, 1, 2, 4, 3, 5, 1,

8,3, 2, 1, which contributes 20% of the project risk

QUESTION 9
Average duration
Project PDF
10+20+30+40+50+60/6 = 35 days
Project CDF
5+10+15+20+25+30+35+40+45+50+55/11 = 30 days

12
QUESTION 10
The 80% certainty value (approximately) for the project duration
Project PDF
30 days
Project CDF
34.2 days

QUESTION 11
The chance (approximately) of finishing this project in 25 days
Project PDF
Approximately 0.050
Project CDF
Approximately 0.18

13