Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense

Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense | Council on Foreign Relations 07.11.
22, 23:04
Backgrounder
Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense

Differences over Taiwan’s status have fueled rising tensions between the island and the mainland.
And Taiwan has the potential to be a flash point in U.S.-China relations.
WRITTEN BY
Lindsay Maizland
UPDATED
Last updated August 3, 2022 4:45 pm (EST)
Summary
Taiwan has been governed independently of China since 1949, but Beijing views the island as part
of its territory. Beijing has vowed to eventually “unify” Taiwan with the mainland, using force if
necessary.
Tensions are rising. Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, whose party platform favors independence,
has rebuked Beijing’s efforts to undermine democracy. Beijing has ramped up political and
military pressure on Taipei.
Some analysts fear the United States and China could go to war over Taiwan. U.S. House Speaker
Nancy Pelosi’s trip to the island in 2022 heightened tensions between the countries.
Introduction
Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China (ROC), is an island separated from China by
the Taiwan Strait. It has been governed independently of mainland China, officially the
People’s Republic of China (PRC), since 1949. The PRC views the island as a renegade province
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden Page 1 of 13
Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense | Council on Foreign Relations 07.11.22, 23:04
and vows to eventually “unify” Taiwan with the mainland. In Taiwan, which has its own
democratically elected government and is home to twenty-three million people, political
leaders have differing views on the island’s status and relations with the mainland.
Cross-strait tensions have escalated since the election of Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen in
2016. Tsai has refused to accept a formula that her predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou, endorsed to
allow for increased cross-strait ties. Meanwhile, Beijing has taken increasingly aggressive
actions, including by flying fighter jets near the island. Some analysts fear a Chinese attack on
Taiwan has the potential to draw the United States into a war with China.
Is Taiwan part of China?

Beijing asserts that there is only “one China” and that Taiwan is part of it. It views the PRC as
the only legitimate government of China, an approach it calls the One-China principle, and
seeks Taiwan’s eventual “unification” with the mainland.
Beijing claims that Taiwan is bound by an understanding known as the 1992 Consensus, which
was reached between representatives of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the
Kuomintang (KMT) party that then ruled Taiwan. However, the two sides don’t agree on the
content of this so-called consensus, and it was never intended to address the question of
Taiwan’s legal status. For the PRC, as Chinese President Xi Jinping has stated, the 1992
Consensus reflects an agreement that “the two sides of the strait belong to one China and
would work together to seek national reunification.” For the KMT, it means “one China,
different interpretations,” with the ROC standing as the “one China.”
NORTH KOREA
Beijing
JAPAN
SOUTH KOREA
CHINA
EAST CHINA SEA
Taipei PACIFIC OCEAN

TAIWAN
TAIWAN
STRAIT
HONG KONG
SOUTH CHINA SEA

PHILIPPINES
VIETNAM
TAIWAN AT A GLANCE
Area GDP per capita

35,980 square kilometers (slightly $33,004 (2021)
smaller than Maryland and Delaware
combined) Life expectancy
81 years (2022)
Form of government
Semipresidential republic Religions
Buddhism 35%, Taoism 33%, Christianity
Population 4%, folk 10%, none or unspecified 18%
24 million (2022) (2005)
GDP Languages
$774 billion (2021) Mandarin Chinese (official), Minnan, Hakka
dialects, Indigenous languages
Sources: CIA World Factbook; Taiwan Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting, and Statistics.
Taiwan’s KMT-drafted constitution continues to recognize China, Mongolia, Taiwan, Tibet, and
the South China Sea as part of the ROC. The KMT does not support Taiwan’s independence
and has consistently called for closer ties with Beijing. But in the face of recent election losses,
KMT leaders have discussed whether to change the party’s stance on the 1992 Consensus.
The KMT’s chief rival party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has never endorsed the
understanding laid out in the 1992 Consensus. President Tsai, who is also the leader of the DPP
has refused to explicitly accept the consensus. Instead, she has attempted to find another
formulation that would be acceptable to Beijing. In her 2016 inaugural address, Tsai noted she
was “elected president in accordance with the Constitution of the Republic of China,” which is
a one-China document, and said she would “safeguard the sovereignty and territory of the
Republic of China.” Tsai also pledged that she would “conduct cross-strait affairs in accordance
with the Republic of China Constitution, the Act Governing Relations Between the People of
[the] Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area, and other relevant legislation.” Beijing, however,
rejected this formulation and cut off official contacts with Taiwan.
In a 2019 speech, Xi reiterated China’s long-standing proposal for Taiwan: that it be

incorporated into the mainland under the formula of “one country, two systems.” This is the
same formula used for Hong Kong, which was guaranteed the ability to preserve its political
and economic systems and granted a “high degree of autonomy.” Such a framework is deeply
unpopular among the Taiwanese public. Pointing to Beijing’s recent crackdown on Hong
Kong’s freedoms, Tsai and even the KMT have rejected the “one country, two systems”
framework.
Is Taiwan a member of the United Nations?

No. China rejects Taiwan’s participation as a member in UN agencies and other international
organizations that limit membership to states. Taipei regularly protests its exclusion; the
United States also pushes for Taiwan’s meaningful participation in such organizations. Amid
the COVID-19 pandemic, Taipei criticized the World Health Organization (WHO) for giving in
to Beijing’s demands and continuing to bar Taiwan—which mounted one of the world’s most
effective responses to COVID-19 in the first two years of the pandemic—from attending the
organization’s World Health Assembly as an observer. Ministers from the Group of Seven (G7)
countries have called for Taiwan’s inclusion in WHO forums.
Taiwan does, however, hold member status in more than forty organizations, most of them
regional, such as the Asian Development Bank and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation
forum, as well as in the World Trade Organization. It holds observer or other status on several
other bodies.
Only fourteen states maintain official diplomatic ties with Taiwan. No government has ever
simultaneously maintained formal diplomatic ties with both China and Taiwan.
What is the United States’ relationship with Taiwan?
In 1979, the United States established formal diplomatic relations with the PRC. At the same
time, it severed its diplomatic ties and abrogated its mutual defense treaty with the ROC. But
the United States maintains a robust unofficial relationship with the island and continues to
sell defense equipment to its military. Beijing has repeatedly urged Washington to stop selling
weapons to and cease contact with Taipei.
The U.S. approach is governed by its One-China policy [PDF]. It is based on several documents,
such as three U.S.-China communiqués reached in 1972, 1978, and 1982; the Taiwan Relations
Act, passed by the U.S. Congress in 1979; and the recently declassified “Six Assurances” [PDF],
which President Ronald Reagan conveyed to Taiwan in 1982. These documents lay out that the
United States:
“acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China and Taiwan is part of
China” and that the PRC is the “sole legal government of China” (some U.S. officials have
emphasized that the use of the word “acknowledge” implies that the United States doesn’t
necessarily accept the Chinese position);
rejects any use of force to settle the dispute;
maintains cultural, commercial, and other ties with Taiwan, carried out through the
American Institute in Taiwan (AIT);
commits to selling arms to Taiwan for self-defense; and
will maintain the ability to come to Taiwan’s defense, while not actually committing to
doing so—a policy known as strategic ambiguity.
The United States’ chief goal is to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, and it has
implored both Beijing and Taipei to maintain the status quo. It says it does not support
Taiwanese independence.
Through its policy of strategic ambiguity, the United States has for decades attempted to
maintain a delicate balance between supporting Taiwan and preventing a war with China. But
President Joe Biden has seemingly rejected the policy, stating several times that the United
States would come to Taiwan’s defense if China attacked. White House officials have walked
back his comments, saying the policy has not changed, but ultimately, the president gets to
decide how to respond. Some experts, such as CFR’s Richard Haass and David Sacks, and
several members of Congress have welcomed Biden’s statements, arguing that China’s increased
aggression necessitates clarity. Other experts have disagreed with this position.
How have recent U.S. administrations approached Taiwan?

Under President Donald Trump, the United States deepened ties with Taiwan over Chinese
objections, including by selling more than $18 billion worth of arms to the military and
unveiling a $250 million complex for its de facto embassy in Taipei. Trump spoke with Tsai by
telephone ahead of his inauguration, the highest level of contact between the two sides since
1979. He also sent several senior administration officials—including a cabinet member—to
Taipei, and during his last days in office, the State Department eliminated long-held
restrictions governing where and how U.S. officials can meet with their Taiwanese
counterparts.
U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan by Recent Administrations
W. Bush Obama Trump Biden
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Note: Data is as of August 2022 and includes sales of defense equipment of $14 million or more, defense articles or
services of $50 million or more, and design and construction services of $200 million or more.
Sources: Congressional Research Service; Defense Security Cooperation Agency.
The Biden administration has taken a similar approach, continuing arms sales and affirming
the Trump administration’s decision to allow U.S. officials to meet more freely with Taiwanese
officials. Biden was the first U.S. president to invite Taiwanese representatives to attend the
presidential inauguration. The United States participates in military training and dialogues
with Taiwan, regularly sails ships through the Taiwan Strait to demonstrate its military
presence in the region, and has encouraged Taiwan to increase its defense spending.
Also, Taiwan has received bipartisan support in Congress over the years, with lawmakers
proposing and passing legislation to boost U.S.-Taiwan relations, bolster the island’s defenses,
and encourage its participation in international organizations. The latest proposed legislation,
the Taiwan Policy Act of 2022 [PDF], includes designating Taiwan as a major non–North
Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) ally. In August 2022, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA)
visited Taipei—the first speaker to do so since Newt Gingrich (R-GA) in 1997—and met with
Tsai. Beijing strongly condemned the visit and in response planned military exercises that
effectively surround the island and banned imports of some fruit and fish from Taiwan, among
other actions.
Could war erupt over Taiwan?

A top concern among U.S. analysts is that China’s growing military capabilities and
assertiveness, as well as the deterioration in cross-strait relations, could spark a conflict. Such a
conflict has the potential to lead to a U.S.-China confrontation. That’s because China hasn’t
ruled out using force to achieve Taiwan’s “reunification” and the United States hasn’t ruled out
defending Taiwan if China attacks. The U.S. Department of Defense said in a 2021 report [PDF]
that China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), is “likely preparing for a contingency
to unify Taiwan with the PRC by force, while simultaneously deterring, delaying, or denying
any third-party intervention, such as the United States.”
However, experts disagree about the likelihood and timing of a Chinese invasion. The top U.S.
military commander in the Indo-Pacific warned in 2021 that China could try to invade Taiwan
within the next decade [PDF], while some experts believe that such an invasion is further off
Others believe 2049 is a critical date; Xi has emphasized that unification with Taiwan is
essential to achieving what he calls the Chinese Dream, which sees China’s great-power status
restored by 2049.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 reignited the debate, with some analysts arguing that
Moscow’s moves could embolden Beijing to similarly invade Taiwan and others saying that
Beijing could become more cautious after witnessing Russia’s challenges. CFR’s Sacks writes
that Russia’s actions won’t influence China’s willingness to use force, but that “Chinese leaders
will examine Russia’s failures and adapt their operational plans to avoid making similar
mistakes.”
Regardless, the PLA has made preparing for a Taiwan contingency one of its top priorities, and
Taiwan has been a major catalyst for China’s military modernization. In a 2019 defense white
paper, the PLA said it would “resolutely defeat anyone attempting to separate Taiwan from
China.”
Taiwan likely doesn’t have the capabilities to defend against a Chinese attack without external
support, analysts say. Even though Tsai and the DPP have prioritized increasing defense
spending, with a record budget of nearly $17 billion for 2022, China’s spending [PDF] is still
estimated to be around twenty-two times Taiwan’s. In 2022, Taiwanese lawmakers approved the
Tsai government’s plan to spend an extra $8.6 billion on defense over the next five years. Part
of this expanded military budget will go toward acquiring cruise missiles, naval mines, and
advanced surveillance systems to defend Taiwan’s coasts.
How has China tried to intimidate Taiwan?

China has employed a variety of coercive tactics short of armed conflict, and it has ramped up
these measures since Tsai’s election in 2016. Its objective is to wear down Taiwan and prompt
the island’s people to conclude that their best option is unification with the mainland. To that
end, China has increased the frequency and scale of patrols of PLA bombers, fighter jets, and
surveillance aircraft over and around Taiwan. It has also increasingly sailed its warships and
aircraft carriers through the Taiwan Strait in shows of force.
Taiwan has reported that thousands of cyberattacks from China target its government agencies
every day. These attacks have soared in recent years. In 2020, Taipei accused four Chinese
groups of hacking into at least ten Taiwanese government agencies and six thousand official
email accounts since 2018 to try to access government data and personal information.
Beijing has also used nonmilitary measures to pressure Taiwan. In 2016, China suspended a
cross-strait communication mechanism with the main Taiwan liaison office. It restricted
tourism to Taiwan, and the number of mainland tourists visiting Taiwan fell from a high of
over 4 million in 2015 to 2.7 million in 2019. China has also pressured global corporations,
including airlines and hotel chains, to list Taiwan as a Chinese province. In addition, China has
intimidated countries that have ties with Taiwan: in 2021, China cut off trade with Lithuania
for opening a Taiwanese representative office in its capital.
Has Beijing undermined Taiwan’s democracy?

In addition to the tactics described above, China has ramped up interference in Taiwan’s
elections. Its methods include spreading disinformation on social media and increasing its
control over Taiwanese media outlets. In the 2020 election, for example, China spread
disinformation in an apparent effort to damage Tsai and boost the KMT’s presidential
candidate. Such efforts are part of China’s larger strategy of employing coercion to erode trust
in Taiwan’s political system and sow divisions in Taiwanese society. However, experts view the
DPP’s success in recent elections, including Tsai’s reelection in 2020, as a rebuke of Beijing.
Taiwan’s democracy is relatively young. The KMT governed under martial law from 1949 to
1987. During that time, political dissent was harshly repressed and Taiwanese who had long
inhabited the island before 1945 faced discrimination. Taiwan held its first free legislative
elections in 1992 and its first presidential elections in 1996. Since then, it has peacefully
transferred power between parties several times.
Despite Chinese threats, Taiwan appears to have so far bucked the trend of backsliding
afflicting democracies around the world. In 2020, the Economist’s Democracy Index [PDF]
labeled Taiwan a “full democracy” for the first time. In 2021, Taiwan was ranked the world’s
eighth-most-democratic country. That is higher than its Asian neighbors (South Korea ranked
sixteenth and Japan ranked seventeenth) and the United States, which ranked twenty-sixth.
Recent elections have seen high voter turnout.
Do Taiwanese people support independence?

Most people in Taiwan support maintaining the status quo. A small number support immediate
independence, according to opinion polls conducted by National Chengchi University. Even
fewer express support for the unification of Taiwan with China. An overwhelming majority
reject a “one country, two systems” model, a sentiment that has grown as Beijing cracks down
on Hong Kong’s freedoms.
An increasing number of Taiwanese people feel more closely tied to Taiwan than to the
mainland. More than 62 percent of the island’s residents regarded themselves as exclusively
Taiwanese in 2021, a survey by National Chengchi University found. By comparison, 32 percent
identified as both Taiwanese and Chinese, down from 40 percent a decade earlier. Only about 3
percent considered themselves only Chinese, a figure that has decreased since 1994, when 26
percent identified that way.
What is Taiwan’s economic situation?

Taiwan’s economy remains reliant on trade with China, which is the island’s largest trading
partner. However, their economic relationship has experienced disruptions in recent years,
partly due to Beijing’s pressure on the island and Taiwanese officials’ growing concern about it
overreliance on trade with China.
China Makes Up the Largest Share of Taiwan’s Trade

Trade with China Trade with rest of world
$800B
$700B
$600B
$500B
$400B
$300B
$200B
$100B
$0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Source: Taiwan Ministry of Finance.
Under President Ma, who was in office from 2008 to 2016, Taiwan signed more than twenty
pacts with the PRC, including the 2010 Cross-Straits Economic Cooperation Framework
Agreement [PDF], in which they agreed to lift barriers to trade. China and Taiwan resumed
direct sea, air, and mail links that had been banned for decades. They also agreed to allow
banks, insurers, and other financial-service providers to work in both markets.
Tsai and the DPP, on the other hand, have attempted to diversify Taiwan’s trade relationships,
with mixed results. Tsai has had some success boosting trade with and investment in countries
in Southeast Asia and the Indo-Pacific through a signature initiative, the New Southbound
Policy. Trade between Taiwan and the eighteen targeted countries increased by more than $50
billion between 2016, when the initiative was unveiled, and 2021. Taiwanese investment in
those countries has also steadily increased. In 2019, Tsai unveiled a three-year plan to
incentivize Taiwanese manufacturers to move from the mainland back to Taiwan.
Still, in 2021, Taiwan’s exports to China hit an all-time high. Beijing has pressured countries not
to sign free trade agreements with Taiwan. A handful of countries have signed free trade pacts
with the island; New Zealand and Singapore are the only developed economies to sign such
agreements. Beijing has also pushed for Taiwan’s exclusion from multilateral trading blocs,
including the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership
(CPTPP) and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). (China is included in
the RCEP but not in the CPTPP.) Taiwan also is not part of the Biden administration’s Indo-
Pacific Economic Framework.
Have cross-strait tensions hurt Taiwan’s vital

semiconductor chip manufacturers?
Taiwan is the world’s top contract manufacturer of semiconductor chips, and its industry is
booming despite cross-strait tensions. These chips are found in most electronics, including
smartphones, computers, vehicles, and even weapons systems that rely on artificial intelligence
Companies in Taiwan were responsible for more than 60 percent of revenue generated by the
world’s semiconductor contract manufacturers in 2020.
Much of that can be attributed to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the
world’s largest contract chip maker and the top supplier for Apple and other U.S. companies. It
is one of only two companies in the world (the other is South Korea-based Samsung) that has
the technological know-how to make the smallest, most advanced chips, and it manufactures
more than 90 percent of them.
Some experts argue that the United States’ dependence on Taiwanese chip firms heightens its
motivation to defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack. Recognizing the extent to which the
United States relies on one company for critical chips, Biden has pushed to strengthen the U.S.
chip industry; in 2022, Congress passed a sweeping $280 billion bill to do so. China also relies
on Taiwanese chips, though not as much as the United States does. Beijing is working to boost
its industry, especially as Washington has pushed TSMC to stop selling to Chinese companies,
including Huawei, a Chinese telecommunications giant that Washington claims Beijing could
use for espionage.
Recommended Resources
In this Council Special Report, CFR’s Robert D. Blackwill and University of Virginia’s Philip
Zelikow examine how the United States could change its strategy to prevent war over Taiwan.
The Brookings Institution’s Richard C. Bush explains the United States’ One-China policy [PDF].
CFR’s Richard Haass and David Sacks argue in Foreign Affairs that the United States should end its
policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan.
For Foreign Affairs, Sacks unpacks what China is learning from Russia’s war in Ukraine.
This virtual strategy game conducted by the Center for a New American Security examines how
China could influence Taiwan’s semiconductor industry.
This Brookings Institution event discusses Taiwan’s economy during a time of global uncertainty.
The New York Times investigates increasing Taiwanese pride.
Eleanor Albert contributed to this Backgrounder. Will Merrow created the map.
For media inquiries on this topic, please reach out to communications@cfr.org.

Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense - Council On Foreign Relations

Uploaded by

Document Information

Original Description:

Original Title

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense - Council On Foreign Relations

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

Why China-Taiwan Relations Are So Tense | Council on Foreign Relations 07.11.

Is Taiwan part of China?

Taipei PACIFIC OCEAN

SOUTH CHINA SEA

Area GDP per capita

In a 2019 speech, Xi reiterated China’s long-standing proposal for Taiwan: that it be

Is Taiwan a member of the United Nations?

What is the United States’ relationship with Taiwan?

rejects any use of force to settle the dispute;

commits to selling arms to Taiwan for self-defense; and

How have recent U.S. administrations approached Taiwan?

U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan by Recent Administrations

W. Bush Obama Trump Biden

Sources: Congressional Research Service; Defense Security Cooperation Agency.

Could war erupt over Taiwan?

How has China tried to intimidate Taiwan?

Has Beijing undermined Taiwan’s democracy?

Do Taiwanese people support independence?

What is Taiwan’s economic situation?

China Makes Up the Largest Share of Taiwan’s Trade

Source: Taiwan Ministry of Finance.

Have cross-strait tensions hurt Taiwan’s vital

The New York Times investigates increasing Taiwanese pride.

For media inquiries on this topic, please reach out to communications@cfr.org.

You might also like