Chapter 8:

Introduction To
Probability

AIMST University
 Probability Theory
• Experiment :
any process or procedure for which more than one
outcome is possible
Ex : Toss a coin
Two possible outcomes : a head or a tail
and both are equally likely

• Sample Space :
The sample space S of an experiment is a set
consisting of all of the possible experimental outcomes
Ex : A six-sided die is thrown
There are 6 possible outcomes : 1,2,3,4,5,6
and they are all equally likely
 Probability Theory
• Experiment : toss a coin once
• Sample space : all possible outcomes of an experiment
S = { H, T }
• Experiment : toss a coin twice
• Sample space : possible outcomes of an experiment
S = { HH, HT, TH, TT }
• Event : a subset of possible outcomes
A={ HH }, B={ HT, TH }
Experiment : toss a six-sided die once
Sample space S = { 1,2,3,4,5,6 }
Event A = { prime numbers } = { 2,3,5 }

Probability of an event : a number assigned to an event P(A)

n( A)
P( A) 
n( S )
 Probability Theory

• Events are denoted with capital letters:

A, B, C…

• P(A) means the probability of the event A occurring

number of favourable outcomes

n( A)
P( A) 
n( S )
number of possible outcomes
Note : 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1
 Probability
• Probability is a numerical measure that indicates the
likelihood of an event
• All probabilities are between 0 and 1, inclusive

i.e. 0  P( A) 1

• A probability of 0 means the event is impossible

Ex: getting a number more than 6 in a throw of a die
• A probability of 1 means the event is certain to occur
Ex : The sun will rise in the east tomorrow morning ?
Complement of an event
The complement of event A is the event that A does not occur,
denoted by A’

P( A' )  1  P( A)
Sample space

A’

A
Ex : A six-sided fair die is thrown. Find the probability
that the result will be
(i) an even number (ii) a number greater than 4 (iii) a multiple of 3
(i) Let E = { even numbers } = { 2,4,6 }
n( E ) 3 1
n(E)= 3, n(S) = 6 P( E )  P(even number )   
n( S ) 6 2
(ii) Let F = { number > 4} = { 5, 6 }
n( F ) 2 1
n(F)= 2, n(S) = 6 P( F )  P( greater than 4)   
n( S ) 6 3
(iii) Let M = { multiples of 3} = { 3, 6 }
n( M ) 2 1
n(M)= 2, n(S) = 6 P( M )  P(multiples of 3)   
n( S ) 6 3
(iv) not a multiple of 3
1 2
P(not a multiple of 3)  P(M ' )  1  P( M )  1  
3 3
Card Symbols :

Heart Spade

Club Diamond
There are 52 cards in a deck
There are 52 cards in a
deck. So what are my
chances of picking an ace?
How many aces are in a deck? 4
How many cards are in a deck? 52
So I have a
4/52 or 1/13
chance of
drawing an
ace!
Ex: One card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards.
Calculate the probability that the card will be
(i) a spade (ii) not a spade (iii) a red card (iv) a court card

There are 52 cards in a pack of cards, n(S) = 52

A = card drawn is a spade, there are 13 spades in a pack, i.e. n(A) =13

n( A) 13 1
(i) P( A)  P( spade)   
n( S ) 52 4
1 3
(ii ) P(not a spade)  P( A' ) 1  P( A)  1  
4 4
B = card drawn is red , there are 26 red cards, i.e. n(B) = 26
n( B) 26 1
(iii ) P( B)  P(red )   
n( S ) 52 2
(iv) A court card is a king, a queen, or a jack

Let C = a court card is drawn

Note : There are 4 kings, 4 queens and 4 jacks in a
pack of cards i.e. n(C) = 12

12 3
P(C )  P(court card )  
52 13
(v) the card will be an ace

Let D = the card drawn is an ace,

there are 4 aces in a pack, i.e n(D) = 4

4 1
P( D)  P(ace)  
52 13
Ex : One element is randomly selected from a universal set of
20 elements.

Sets A and B are subsets of the universal set and n(A) = 15,
n(B)= 10 and n( A  B)  7

Find (i) P( A) (ii ) P( A  B) (iii ) P( A' )

n( A) 15 3
(i) P( A)    ( S is the universal set )
n( S ) 20 4

n( A  B ) 7
(ii ) P( A  B)  
n( S ) 20
3 1
(iii ) P( A' )  1  P( A)  1  
4 4
Find : (iv) P( A  B) (v) P( A  B)'

S
A B
8 3
7

8  7  3 18 9
(iv ) P( A  B)   
20 20 10
Or P( A  B)'  1  P( A  B)
2 1
(v) P( A  B)'   9 1
20 10  1 
10 10
 Composite Events
Ex : A die and a coin are tossed together.
The sample space, S = { (1,H), (1,T), (2,H), (2,T), (3,H), (3,T),
(4,H), (4,T), (5,H), (5, T), (6,H). (6,T) }
coin
H      

T      
Note: n(S) = 12 = 2x6
die
1 2 3 4 5 6

(i) Find the probability of obtaining a head on the coin and an

even number on the die 3 1
P(head and even number )  
12 4
(ii) Find the probability of obtaining a tail on the coin and a
number greater than 4 on the die 2 1
P(tail and number  4 )  
12 6
Independent Events
• Two events are independent if the occurrence or nonoccurrence
of one event does not change the probability of the other event.

In the previous example: the event of getting a head on

the coin, say, does not affect the result of throwing the die
The two events are said to be independent

Definition : If two events A and B are independent, then

P( A and B)  P( A).P( B) Or P( A  B)  P( A).P( B)

Conversely, two events A and B are independent if

P( A  B)  P( A).P( B)
Independent Events Ex : A die and a coin are tossed together

coin
H      

Note: n(S) = 12 = 2x6
T     

die
1 2 3 4 5 6

Find the probability of obtaining a head on the coin and an even

number on the die 3 1
P(head and even number )  
12 4
1
Alternatively: Let H = event of getting a head, P( H ) 
2
3
E = event of getting an even number, P( E ) 
6
Since H and E 1 3 1
are independent, P( H  E)  P( H ).P( E) 2 6 4
 . 
Ex : A card is selected from a pack of 52 cards and a die is
thrown. Find the probability of getting

(i) a club and an even number on the die,

(ii) a red card and a number less than 3 on the die.
Note : the selection of the card and the throwing of the die are
independent events
13 3 1
(i) P(c lub)  , P(even number )  
52 6 2
13 1 1
P(c lub and even number )  P(c lub).P(even number )  . 
52 2 8
26 2 1
(ii ) P(red card )  , P(number  3)  
52 6 3
26 2 1
P(red card and number  3)  P(red card ).P( number  3)  . 
52 6 6
Mutually Exclusive Events
-- Two events are mutually exclusive if they
cannot occur at the same time.
-- Mutually Exclusive = Disjoint
A B   n( A  B)  0

S A B

-- If A and B are mutually exclusive, then

P(A and B) = 0 i.e. P( A  B)  0 and P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)
Mutually exclusive outcomes
Outcomes are mutually exclusive if
they cannot happen at the same time.

For example, when you toss a single coin either it will land on
heads or it will land on tails. There are two mutually exclusive
outcomes.
Outcome A: Head
Outcome B: Tail

When you roll a dice either it will land on an odd number or it

will land on an even number. There are two mutually exclusive
outcomes.
Outcome A: An odd number
Outcome B: An even number
Mutually exclusive outcomes
A pupil is chosen at random from the class. Which of the
following pairs of outcomes are mutually exclusive?

Outcome A: the pupil has brown eyes.

Outcome B: the pupil has blue eyes.

These outcomes are mutually exclusive because a pupil can

either have brown eyes, blue eyes or another colour of eyes.

Outcome C: the pupil has black hair.

Outcome D: the pupil has wears glasses.

These outcomes are not mutually exclusive because a pupil

could have both black hair and wear glasses.
Ex : One card is selected from a pack of 52 cards. What is the
probability that the card selected will be either a club or a red ace ?

13
P(a c lub) 
52
2
P(a red ace) 
52

Note : the card selected cannot be a club and a red ace at the same time

The two events are mutually exclusive

13 2 15
P( a c lub or a red ace)  P( a c lub)  P( a red ace)   
52 52 52
Events that are not mutually exclusive
Ex: A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards. What is the probability
that the card is either a diamond or a king ?
13 4
Let D = {diamonds} K = {kings} P ( D)  , P ( K ) 
52 52
D and K are NOT mutually exclusive events

16 4 17
P( D or K )  P( D  K )    P( D)  P( K ) 
52 13 52
In general , for any two events, A and B

P( A or B)  P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)

If A a and B are mutually exclusive, then

P( A or B)  P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B) sin ce P( A  B)  0
Ex : A die and a coin are tossed together.
coin
Note: n(S) = 12 = 2x6
H      

T       1 4
P( A)  P( B) 
die 2 6
1 2 3 4 5 6
A and B independent
Find the probability of obtaining
(i) a head on the coin and a number greater than 2 on the die

Let A = event of getting a head , B = event of getting a number

greater than 2
n( A  B ) 4 1 1 4
P( A and B)  P( A  B )     P( A).P( B)  .
n( S ) 12 3 2 6
(ii) a head on the coin or a number greater than 2 on the die
1 4 1 5 n( A  B) 10
P( A  B )  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)      
2 6 3 6 n( S ) 12
 Tree Diagrams
• Displays the outcomes of an experiment consisting of a
sequence of activities.
– The total number of branches equals the total
number of outcomes.
– Each unique outcome is represented by following a
branch from start to finish.

• We can also label each branch of the tree with its

respective probability.
• To obtain the probability of the events, we can multiply
the probabilities as we work down a particular branch.
Ex : A fair coin is thrown twice

Draw a tree diagram first

2nd
H HH
1st

H
T HT Possible
Outcomes
H TH
T

T TT
 Next, attach probabilities

2nd
1st ½ H HH P(H,H)= ½x½=¼

½ H
½
T HT P(H,T)= ½x½=¼

½ H TH P(T,H)= ½x½=¼
½ T

½ T TT P(T,T)= ½x½=¼

1st throw has no effect on the 2nd throw - Independent Events

 Q : Find probability of (i) exactly 1 head (ii) at least 1 head

2nd
1st ½ H HH P(H,H) = ½x½=¼

½ H
½
T HT P(H,T) = ½x½=¼

½ H TH P(T,H) = ½x½=¼
½ T

½ T P(T,T) = ½x½=¼
TT
(i) P( exactly one Head)
1 1 1 3
1 1 1
   (ii) P( at least one Head) =   
4 4 2 4 4 4 4
Ex : There are 10 coloured beads in a bag – 3 Red, 2 Blue, 5 Green.
One bead is taken, colour noted, returned to bag, then a second taken.
2nd
1st P( R )= 3/10 = 0.3
R RR
B RB P( B )= 2/10 = 0.2
R
G RG P( G )= 5/10 = 0.5
R BR

B B BB Q : Find the probability of

drawing
G BG
(i) two blue beads
R GR
G (ii) two beads of the same
B GB colour
(iii) two beads of different
G GG colour
 2nd
1st
R RR P(RR) = 0.3x0.3 = 0.09
0.3
0.2
B RB P(RB) = 0.3x0.2 = 0.06
R
0.5 G RG P(RG) = 0.3x0.5 = 0.15
0.3 R BR P(BR) = 0.2x0.3 = 0.06
0.3
0.2 0.2
B B BB P(BB) = 0.2x0.2 = 0.04 All ADD UP
to 1.0
0.5 G BG P(BG) = 0.2x0.5 = 0.10
0.5 P(GR) = 0.5x0.3 = 0.15
0.3 R GR
G 0.2 P(GB) = 0.5x0.2 = 0.10
B GB
0.5 P(GG) = 0.5x0.5 = 0.25
G GG

(i) P( 2 blue) = 0.2x0.2= 0.04 (iii) P(different colour)

= 1- P(same colour)
(ii) P( same colour) = 0.09 + 0.04 +0.25= 0.38
=1- 0.38 = 0.62
Q : There are 9 coloured beads in a bag – 2 Red and 7 Blue
One bead is taken, colour noted, returned to bag, then a second taken.
2nd
1st P( R )= 2/9
R RR
P( B )= 7/9
R
B RB Q : Find the probability

(i) the first bead is red

BR (ii) the two beads are of
R the same colour
B (iii) the two beads are of
different colour
B BB (iv) the second bead is blue
Ex : A bag contains 6 red beads and 4 blues. 2 beads are picked at
random without replacement.
(i) Draw a probability tree diagram to show this information.
(ii) Find the probability of selecting both red beads.
(iii) Find the probability of picking one of each colour.
2nd pick
1st pick 5
R
9

6 R
10 4
9
B
6
4 9 R
10 B
3
9 B
(ii) Find the probability of selecting both red beads 6 red
(iii) Find the probability of picking one of each colour. 4 blue

1st Pick 2nd Pick

5 6 5 1
R P( R, R)  .  ... (i)
9 10 9 3
6
10
R
6 4 4
4
B P ( R, B )  . 
9 10 9 15
6
9
R 4 6 4
P ( B, R )  . 
4
10
B 10 9 15
4 4 8
3 P(one of each )   
9 B 15 15 15
6 5 4 6 3
(iii ) P( sec ond bead is red )  .  . 
10 9 10 9 5
Q : A box contains 10 red balls and 15 blue balls. 2 balls are picked
at random without replacement. Find the probability that
(i) the first ball is not blue (ii) both balls are blue
(iii) the balls are of different colour 10 2
(iv) the second ball is blue (i) P( B' ) 
2nd pick 25 5
5
R (ii ) P( B1  B2 )
1st pick 9
15 14 7
 . 
6 R 25 24 20
10 4
9
B (iii ) P( R1  B2 )  P( B1  R2 )
1
6
R 
4 9 2
B
10
(iv ) P( R1  B2 )  P( B1  B2 )
3
3
B 
9 5
Ex :Suppose there are five balls in an urn. Three are red and two
are blue. We will select a ball, note the color, and, without
replacing the first ball, select a second ball.

There are four possible

outcomes:

Red, Red P(RR) =3/5.2/4

Red, Blue P(RB) =3/5.2/4

Blue, Red P(BR) =2/5.3/4

Blue, Blue P(BB) =2/5.1/4

Find the probability that the two balls are 3R
(i) both red (ii) of different colours (iii) the same colour 2B
Method 1 ( using tree diagram ) Method 2 ( by calculation )

(i ) P(both red ) (i) P(both red )  P(red ).P(red )

3 2 3 3 2 3
 .   . 
5 4 10 5 4 10
(ii ) P(diff colour )
(ii ) P(different colour )
 P( R).P( B)  P( B) P( R)
3 2 2 3 3
 .  .  3 2 2 3 3
5 4 5 4 5  .  . 
5 4 5 4 5
(iii ) P( same colour ) (iii ) P( same colour )
3 2 2 1 2 3 2
 .  .  1  P(diff colour )  1  
5 4 5 4 5 5 5
Q : A bag contains 7 red beads and 3 blues. 2 beads are picked at
random without replacement.
(i) Draw a probability tree diagram to show this information
(ii) Calculate the probability of selecting both red beads
(iii) Calculate the probability of picking one of each colour.
2nd Pick
7 6 42
1st Pick 6
R P( R, R)   
9 10 9 90
7
10
R 7 3 21
3
B P( R, B)   
9 10 9 90
7 3 7 21
3 9 R P( B, R)   
B 10 9 90
10
21 21 42
2 P(one of each )   
B 90 90 90
9
Ex : A bag contains 5 red beads and 3 blues. 2 beads are picked at
random without replacement. Find the probability the first bead
is red and the second bead is blue.
R
P( R)  5 / 8
R
P( B / R)  3 / 7
B RB

R
B
For dependent events
B

P( R  B)  P( R).P( B / R) P( R  B)
P( B / R) 
5 3 15 P( R)
 . 
8 7 56
From the last example, we note that for dependent events, A and B

P( A  B)  P( A).P( B / A) ***

where P( B / A) is the probabilit y of event B occuring

given that event A has occurred

Rearranging *** we get

P( A  B)
P( B / A)  Remember !
P( A)

-- This is the conditional probability of B occurring

given that A has already occurred
Further conditional probability P( A  B)
P( B / A) 
P( A  B)  P( A).P( B / A) P( A)

Ex : A bag contains five coloured balls, three of which are red. A

box contains six coloured balls, four of which are red. A card is
selected at random from a pack of 52 cards. If the card is a club, a
ball is removed from the bag and if the card is not a club, a ball is
removed from the box. Find the probability that
(i) the ball removed is red
(ii) if the removed ball is red, it came from the bag
Let C be the event the card is a club and R the event the ball is red
3 1 13
(i) P( R)  P(C  R)  P(C'R)  13 . 3  39 . 4   
52 5 52 6 20 2 20
P(C  R) 3 13 3
(ii ) P(C / R)    
P( R) 20 20 13
Alternative solution ( using tree diagram)

3 R CR (i) P( R)  P(ball is red )

5
 P(C  R)  P(C 'R)
13
C 13 3 39 4
52 2  .  .
5
R’ C  R' 52 5 52 6
3 1 13
4 R C 'R   
39 20 2 20
C’ 6
52 P(C  R)
(ii ) P(C / R) 
2 P( R)
R’ C 'R' 3 13
6  
20 20
3

13
Conditional probability P( A  B)
P( A / B) 
P( B)
Ex : A bag contains six coloured balls, two of which are blue. A box
contains seven coloured balls, five of which are blue. A card is
selected at random from a pack of 52 cards. If the card is an ace, a
ball is removed from the bag and if the card is not an ace, a ball is
removed from the box. Find the probability that
(i) the ball removed is blue
(ii) if the removed ball is blue, it came from the bag

Let A be the event the card is an ace and B the event the ball is blue
1 60 187
(i) P( B)  P( A  B)  P( A'B)  4 . 2  48 . 5   
52 6 52 7 39 91 273
P( A  B) 1 187 7
(ii ) P( A / B)    
P( B) 39 273 187
Alternative solution ( using tree diagram)

2 B A B (i) P( B)  P(ball is blue )

6
 P( A  B)  P( A'B)
4
A 4 2 48 5
52 4  .  .
B’ A B' 52 6 52 7
6
1 60 187
5   
B A'B 39 91 273
48 A’ 7
52 P( A  B)
(ii ) P( A / B) 
2 P( B)
B’ A'B' 1 187
7  
39 273
7

187
Q : Bag 1 contains three red and 2 blue balls. Bag 2 contains one
red and three blue balls. A coin, which is biased, so that a head is
twice as likely as a tail, is tossed. If it falls heads up, bag 1 is
selected and a ball is drawn. If it falls tails up, bag 2 is selected and
a ball is drawn. Find the probability that
(i) the ball removed is red
(ii) if the removed ball is red, it came from the bag 1

Let H be the event a head is thrown and R the event the ball is red

2 3 1 1 29
(i) P( R)  P( H  R)  P( H 'R)  .  . 
3 5 3 4 60

P( H  R) 2 29 24
(ii ) P( H / R)    
P( R) 5 60 29
Alternative solution ( using tree diagram)

3 R H R (i) P( R)  P(ball is red )

5
 P( H  R)  P( H 'R)
2
H 2 3 1 1
3 2  .  .
5
B H B 3 5 3 4
2 1 29
1   
R H 'R 5 12 60
1 H’ 4
3 P( H  R)
(ii ) P( H / R) 
P( R)
3
B H 'B 2 29
4  
5 60
24

29
Q : The probability that it will rain on a given morning is 1/4. If it
rains the probability that Mimi will be late for school is 3/5. If it
does not rain, the probability that Mimi will be late for school is 1/6.
Find the probability that, on a given morning,
(i) Mimi is late for school,
(ii) it does not rain given Mimi is late for school.
Let R be the event that it rains in the morning
and L the event Mimi is late to school

1 3 3 1 11
(i) P( L)  P( R  L)  P( R'L)  .  . 
4 5 4 6 40

P( R'L) 1 11 5
(ii ) P( R' / L)    
P ( L) 8 40 11
Alternative solution ( using tree diagram)

3 (i) P( L)  P(late to school )

L RL
5  P( R  L)  P( R'L)
1
R 1 3 3 1
4 2  .  .
5
L’ R  L' 4 5 4 6
3 1 11
1   
L R'L 20 8 40
3 R’ 6
4 P( R'L)
(ii ) P( R' / L) 
5 P ( L)
L’ R'L' 1 11
6  
8 40
5

11
 Conditional Probability Revisited
Ex : A die is tossed. A is the event the number obtained is odd
and B is the event the number is a prime. Find P(A), P(B).
Find the probabilit y that the number is a prime
S
given that it is odd
A B
S = { 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 }
3
A = { 1, 3, 5 } 2 1 1 2
P( A  B)   5
B = { 2, 3, 5 } 6 3 4 6
P( B / A)
A  B  {3, 5}
P( B  A) P( prime given it is odd )

3 1
P( A)   P( A)  P( B / A)
6 2
{3,5}
1/ 3 2 2
3 1
P( B)      A = Reduced
6 2 1/ 2 3 3 {1,3,5} sample space
 Factorials
• For counting numbers 1, 2, 3, …
• ! is read “factorial”
– for example, 5! is read “five factorial”
• n! = n * (n-1) * (n-2) * … * 3 * 2 * 1
– for ex. 5! = 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1 = 120
– 8! = 8*7 * 6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2*1= 40320
• 1! = 1
• 0! = 1
Problems involving Permutations and Combinations

Permutations : ( Arrangements)

 If there are n different objects to be arranged in a row,

the total number of arrangements is n
Pn or n!
Ex : To arrange 6 persons in a row, the total number of
arrangements = 6! = 720 ways

 If there are n different objects to be arranged in a row,

involving r objects at a time, the total number of
arrangements is n!
n
Pr 
(n  r )!
 Combinations : ( Selections )
 If r objects are to be chosen from n different objects ,
the total number of combinatio ns is n!
n
Cr 
(n  r )!r !
Ex : A team of five children is selected from Alex, Bob, Charlie,
Dave, Emma, Francis, Gene and Heather. Find the probability that
both Bob and Heather are in the team
Number of ways of choosing a team of 5 from 8 children  C5  56
8

Since Bob and Heather are to be in the team, split the children into
2 sets : {B, H} and { A, C, D, E, F, G }
Choose 2 from the first set and the remaining
3 from the second set of children i.e. number
of ways with B and H in the team
20 5
 C2 . C3  1.20  20
2 6
P( B and H included )  
56 14
Ex : Find the probability that when a hand of 5 cards is dealt from a
shuffled pack of 52 cards, it contains
(i) all 4 aces (ii) exactly 3 aces (iii) at least 3 aces
(i) Total number of possible hands 52C5
Number of hands with 4 aces
 Number of hands with 4 aces and 1 not ace 4C4 .48C1 48C1
P(all 4 aces )48C1 / 52C5  1 / 54145
(ii ) Number of hands with exactly 3 aces
 Number of hands with 3 aces and 2 not aces  4C3 .48C2
P(exactly 3 aces )4C3 .48C2 / 52C5  94 / 54145

(iii ) P(at least 3 aces )  P(all 4 aces )  P(exactly 3 aces )

 1 / 54145  94 / 54145  19 / 10829
Ex : A and B are two events such that P( A)  0.4,
P( B / A)  0.7) and P( A'  B)  0.3
Find (i) P( A  B) (ii ) P( B) (iii ) P( A  B) (iv) P( A / B)
State, with reasons, whether events A and B are independent

(i) P( A  B)  P( A).P( B / A)  0.4x0.7  0.28

A
(ii ) P( B)  P( A  B)  P( A 'B) B

= 0.28 + 0.3 = 0.58

(iii ) P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)
A'B A B
= 0.4 + 0.58 − 0 .28 = 0.7
P( A  B) 0.28
(iv ) P( A / B)    0.483 A and B are NOT
P( B) 0.58 independent (why ?)
 Summary :
S = sample space : all possible outcomes of an experiment

A = an event ( a subset of S ) S

n( A) A’
(i) P( A)  0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 A
n( S )

(ii ) P( A' )  1  P( A)
S
(iii ) P( A  B)  P( A).P( B) A B

--- A and B independent events

(iv) P( A or B)  P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B)  P( A  B)
--- A and B non mutually exclusive events
If A a and B are mutually exclusive events, then S

(v) P( A  B)  P( A)  P( B) A B

[ P( A  B)  0]

(vi) P( A  B)  P( A).P( B / A) --- A and B dependent events

P( A  B)
(vii) P( B / A) 
P( A)

P( A  B)
Similarly P( A / B) 
P( B)
Q1(a) : Two events A and B occur with probabilit ies
3 1
P( A)  and P( B) 
5 6
Find the value of P( A  B) if the events
(i) A and B are mutually exclusive, (i) 23/30
(ii ) A and B are independen t. (ii) 2/3
(b) : Two events A and B occur with probabilit ies
1 3 4
P( A)  , P( B)  and P( A  B)  .
4 5 5
Determine, giving reasons, whether the events A and B are
(i) mutually exclusive (ii) independent
(i) Not mutually exclusive (ii) Not independent
Q2(a) : Two events A and B occur with probabilit ies
3 1
P( A)  and P( B) 
4 5
Find the value of P( A  B) if the events
(i) A and B are mutually exclusive, (i) 19/20
(ii ) A and B are independen t. (ii) 3/20
(b) : Two events A and B occur with probabilit ies
2 1 11
P( A)  , P( B)  and P( A  B)  .
5 3 15
Determine, giving reasons, whether the events A and B are
(i) mutually exclusive (ii) independent
(i) Yes mutually exclusive (ii) Not independent
Q3 : Two beads are selected at random from a bag containing 9 red
beads and 12 blue beads without replacement.
2nd
8 Q : Find the probability that
1st
20 R RR (i) the first bead is red
9 (ii) the second bead is blue
R if the first bead is red
21 (iii) the two beads are of
12 B RB
the same colour
20
(iv) the two beads are of
9 different colour
R BR (v) the second bead is blue
12 20
21 B
(i) 9/21 (ii) 12/20 (iii) 17/35
11 B BB
20 (iv) 18/35 (v) 4/7
Q: A multiple choice question has 4 answers, of which 1 is correct. A
student answers 3 questions by guessing randomly. Find the
probability of getting (i) the first question correct, (ii) exactly 2
questions correct, (iii) at least 1 question correct.

1 1/ 4 C CCC (i) 1/4

4 C (ii)
1 3/ 4 C’ CCC’ (1/4)(1/4)(3/4)
C
4 3 1/ 4 C x3 = 9/64
C’ CC’C
4 (iii) P( at least 1
3/ 4 C’ CC’C’ correct)
1 1/ 4
3 C C’CC = 1- P( all
4 C wrong)
4 C’ 3/ 4 C’ C’CC’
3 1/ 4 =1–
C’ C C’C’C (3/4)(3/4)(3/4)
4 = 37/64
3/ 4 C’ C’C’C’
Q5 : A bag contains nine coloured balls, of which n are blue. If the
probability of drawing a ball that is not blue is 2/3.Find the value of
n. A box contains 5 coloured balls of which 3 are blue.
A card is chosen at random from a pack of 52 cards. If the card is a
diamond, a ball is removed from the bag and if the card is not a
diamond, a ball is removed from the box.
Find the probability that [n=3]

(i) the ball removed is not blue

(ii) if the removed ball is not blue, it came from the box

(i) 1/4 x 2/3 + 3/4 x 2/5 = 7/15

(ii) [ 3/4 x 2/5 ] / [ 7/15 ] = 9/14

Q6 : Group A consists of 6 pupils of which 4 are boys. Group B
consists of 8 pupils of which 3 are boys. A coin, which is biased so
that a tail is twice as likely as a head, is tossed. If the outcome is a
head, a pupil is chosen at random from group A, otherwise a pupil is
chosen from group B.
(i) Find the probability that a boy is chosen from group A.

(ii) Find the probability the pupil chosen is not a boy.

(iii) Given that the pupil chosen is not a boy, find the
probability that the pupil came from group B.

(i) 1/3 x 4/6 = 2/9 (ii) 1/3 x 2/6 + 2/3 x 5/8 = 19/36

(iii) [ 2/3 x 5/8 ] / [ 19/36 ] = 15/19

Q7 : Box A contains 5 marbles of which 3 are green. Box B contains
6 marbles of which 2 are green. A die, which is biased so that an
even number is twice as likely as an odd number, is tossed. If the
outcome is an even number, a marble is chosen at random from box
A, otherwise a marble is chosen from box B.

(i) Find the probability that the marble chosen is green

(ii) Given that the marble chosen is not green, find the
probability that the it came from box B.

(i) P( G) = 2/3 x 3/5 + 1/3 x 2/6 = 23/45

(ii) P( G’) = 1- 23/45 = 22/45

P( Box B / G’) = [1/9 ] / [22/45 ] = 5/22