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Bangladesh at Fifty: Changes and Challenges in Population and Development
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DOI: 10.52823/PNIF4859
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Journal of Governance, Security & Development
ISSN: 2708-2490; 2709-0590
Vol 3 No. 1 2022: 1-38 (Online First)
DOI: 10.52823/PNIF4859
Bangladesh at Fifty: Changes and Challenges in

Population and Development
Mohammad Mainul Islam
Md. Anwer Hossain
University of Dhaka, Bangladesh
Abstract
Bangladesh turned 50 in 2021 having made remarkable progress in population and
development, such as reducing total fertility and maternal mortality, boosting
contraceptive prevalence, reducing infant and child mortality, increasing life
expectancy at birth, and enhancing gender parity in schooling, women's
empowerment, and overall development. This paper explores the past and determines
the drivers of population change and development challenges, the current situation,
and future trends and issues up to 2041—the year benchmarked for the country to
attain 'developed' status. The study uses censuses, national-level surveys, population
projections, and UN and World Bank data. Reducing total fertility, curbing child
marriage, addressing adolescent motherhood and their unmet need for family
planning, reducing high maternal mortality ratios, the double burden of diseases and
malnutrition, addressing population ageing, high youth unemployment, low female
labor force participation, and increased climate change vulnerabilities are critical
challenges. The demographic dividend needs urgent action. To reach the SDGs by
2030, the country must eliminate unmet contraception needs, preventable maternal
deaths, and gender-based violence, and harmful practices, including child marriages.
Keywords: Population and Development; Demographic transition; Population

dynamics; Bangladesh
Background
The 26th of March 2021 marked the 50th anniversary of the independence
of Bangladesh. Between 1971 and 2021, the country remarkably
transformed from a 'test case of development' (Faaland & Parkinson,
______
© Centre for Governance Studies (CGS). Opinion and views expressed in JGS&D are
those of the authors/contributors and do not reflect those of the CGS, the Editor or the
members of the Editorial Board.
2 | Islam, Hossain & Sanjowal
1976; Bertocci, 1977; Arthur & McNicoll, 1978) to a 'development surprise'

(Sawada et al., 2017; Asadullah et al., 2014) in the world. Whatever
achievements Bangladesh has achieved so far are rooted in quantitative
and qualitative population changes, with the successful family planning
program. In Bangladesh, this has positively affected infant and child
mortality, total fertility rate, and women's empowerment (Sen, 2013).
While the prospects appear promising, obstacles are also present.
Moreover, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has unleashed
multidimensional challenges and caused enormous damage to the
economy and people's livelihoods for over two years.
Population and national progress are intertwined. The Malthusian
theory originally described and attracted global attention to the
relationship between food supply and population, saying that population
growth outpaces food supply and, if unchecked, results in decadence or
suffering (Malthus, 1798). Ester Boserup (1981) claimed, in opposition to
Malthus's pessimistic account, that densely settled populations provide
the impetus and resources essential for technical advances. Populations
generate the resources necessary to grow prosperity, resulting in an
upward spiral of development. While Mathus and Boserup's views
focused primarily on premodern agrarian societies, modern population
theory is dominated by what is known as Demographic Transition Theory.
This theory, as interpreted by some scholars, relates to a country's journey
through time, which affects practically all human lives, following a few
stages from high fertility to low fertility and death (Thompson, 1929; Kirk,
1996).
However, throughout most of modern history, the general population
was viewed as ‘subject to control.’ In 1994, a paradigm shift occurred
when the world's countries reached a rare consensus that the focus should
not be on population, per se, but rather on people. The groundbreaking
International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD)
heralded a shift in focus from 'human numbers' to 'human rights.' It
mandated governments to place population issues at the center of the
country's development agenda (United Nations, 1994). The ICPD
Program of Action (PoA) affirmed that ‘advancing gender equality and
equity and the empowerment of women, and the elimination of all kinds
of violence against women, and ensuring women's ability to control their
fertility, are cornerstones of population and development-related
programs’ (United Nations, 1994). The ICPD substantially impacted
developing population policies in many countries, including Bangladesh,
where PoA has had an essential influence on population policy and
programs.
Population & Development--Changes and Challenges | 3
At this milestone in the nation's history, it's important to examine

Bangladesh's demographic journey, highlighting challenges and ways to
move forward. Therefore, this paper explores the critical question: In the
last 50 years, what are the changes, driving factors of such changes, and
challenges of population and development in Bangladesh? It aimed to
explore this question in light of the Demographic Transition Model
(DTM) and other associated fertility, population age-structure, mortality,
migration, family and household, and urbanization issues. These
transitions are part of a demographic transition deeply connected to our
daily lives and have far-reaching implications for our social lives.
According to DTM, Bangladesh is in its third stage, where decreasing
fertility rates and low mortality result in a medium population growth
rate.
Beginning with a concise overview of past, present, and future
population dynamics in Bangladesh, the article continues with a
discussion of specific components as per the DTM to explore the changes
within the last fifty years. Next, we highlight the key drivers of these
changes. Finally, we point out significant challenges related to population
and development that need keen attention to fulfill the SDGs by 2030 and
beyond.
Data and Methods

Since the scope of this paper is wide, we have used multiple relevant
secondary data sources—time-series data from population and housing
censuses, national-level population surveys (e.g., Bangladesh
Demographic and Health Survey, Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey,
Sample Vital Statistics, etc.), and used population projections and
estimates by the 2019 Revision of World Population Prospects of the
United Nations Population Division and the World Bank. We undertook
an extensive literature review to understand the Bangladesh population
dynamics and their implications, as well as to highlight the progress and
challenges of Bangladesh’s fifty-year journey and beyond.
Findings and Discussions

Population Dynamics in Bangladesh: Past, Present and Future
According to the 1961 census, the population of this region (then East
Pakistan) was 58,400,000, which became 71,479,071 in independent
Bangladesh. This population got doubled in 2011. By 2019, this eighth-
most populated and one of the most densely populated countries in the
word became the home of more than 168 million people, with a
population density of 1,265 persons per square kilometer (UNFPA, 2020)
(Table 1). The density of the population living per square kilometer
increased from 538.3 in 1975 to 1265.2 in 2020.
Table 1 demonstrates that in the fifty years since the country's

independence, the population has nearly multiplied by 2.5 as the country
passed through a period of high fertility. According to Bangladesh
Demographic and Health Survey 2017-18, the total fertility rate (TFR)
was 3.3 in the 1990s, declining from 6.3 in 1975 (NIPORT & ICF, 2020).
Overall, the trends of crude birth rate (CDR) and crude death rate (CDR)
provide empirical evidence of demographic transition in Bangladesh.
However, the annual population growth rate was 2.48 percent in 1974,
and this rate was higher than 2.1 percent until 1991. The 2011 population
and housing census reported an annual population growth rate of 1.34
percent, projected to decline to 0.43 percent in 2040 (United Nations,
2019). In attaining the replacement level of fertility in the current decade,
the country may experience a 190 million population in 2040 with a
density of almost 1450 persons per sq. kilometer due to the population
momentum effect (Ibid).
Regarding sex ratio, the male-female imbalance in Bangladesh's
population reduced over the years. In 1974, the sex ratio was 107.7
declining to 100.3 in 2011 (BBS, 2011) and 100.1 in 2019 (BBS, 2019). The
United Nations' projection shows a fluctuating trend in sex ratio in the
coming decades, stabling at 100.3 in 2040. Furthermore, there were
32,173,630 households in Bangladesh in 2011 and the average household
size was 4.4. It declined to 4.2 in 2018 (Ibid).
Demographic Transitions in Bangladesh

Fertility Transition
In the past fifty years, Bangladesh has undergone an unprecedented and
rapid transition from a high to low fertility regime. The success story of
FP programs in Bangladesh was globally recognized until the mid-1990s.
Some studies attribute the rapid fertility decline mainly to the success of
FP programs (Cleland et al., 1994; Carty et al., 1993). Carty et al. (1993)
emphasized the government’s commitment to reducing the population
growth rate. They argued that this resulted in widespread success, despite
any notable change in economic development, urbanization, employment
of women, and education. Later, Cleland et al. (1994) also concluded that
‘we have found that it is unnecessary and indeed implausible to invoke
economic change and shifts in the utility of the children as the central
determinant.’ For some scholars, the fertility transition in Bangladesh
was a paradox (Adnan, 1998). However, fertility transition from the
1990s onward is arguably attributed to an increase in female education
and changes in other socio-economic indicators in Bangladesh, where the
effect of FP programs was losing momentum (Khuda & Hossain, 1996;
Bora et al., 2022; Caldwell et al., 1999).
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was 6.24 in 1974, reduced to 3.44 in
1993-94 (Figure 1). During this time, the TFR was higher in rural areas
(3.54). Over time, the TFR decreased significantly to 2.3 in 2011 but
remained stable thereafter. According to the Bangladesh Demographic
and Health Survey 2017-18 and Multiple Indicators Cluster Survey 2019,
TFR is stable at 2.3. However, this rate of TFR significantly varies in
different administrative divisions of the country. For example, TFR in
Sylhet, Chattogram, and Mymensingh is much higher than the
replacement level of 2.1. On the other hand, TFR is higher in rural areas
(2.3), households of the lowest wealth quintile (2.6), and mothers with no
education or who did not complete primary level (2.6). Regarding the
rural-urban divide infertility, the replacement level fertility has been
achieved in urban areas (2.1) but is much higher in rural areas. In 2014
the TFR in rural areas was 2.4, which was reduced to 2.3 in 2017-18.
However, the desired total fertility rate is well below the replacement
level, e.g., 1.8 in rural areas, with a national figure of 1.7 (NIPORT & ICF,
2020). Thus, the 2.3 TFR is much higher than what couples desire (1.7),
which reiterates the importance of FP programs in Bangladesh.
Moreover, TFR varies among the wealth quintiles. For example,
people of the lowest wealth quintile had 1.5 children more than their most
affluent counterparts in 2004. This gap significantly reduced over the
years. By 2014, the gap in TFR between the lowest and highest quintile
became 0.8 children, which was reduced to 0.6 children in 2017-18.
Fertility by wealth index also demonstrates that fertility declines as we
move from the poorest to the richest segment of the population (NIPORT
& ICF, 2020).
Mortality Transition and Increasing Longevity

Various studies suggest the changing pattern of diseases prevalent in
Bangladesh—from acute infectious and deficiency diseases to chronic
non-communicable ones in the context of mortality transition which is
now in its third phase. The epidemiological transition occurs between the
age of degenerative and manmade diseases, followed by the transitional
variant of the delayed model (Islam, 2010). Bangladesh has successfully
achieved significant reductions in infant and child mortality rates and
dramatically increased life expectancy at birth. In 1993-94, the under-five
child mortality rate was 133 per thousand live births, which reduced to 45
in 2017-18. During the same period, rural areas have experienced higher
reductions than urban areas, 43 in rural areas versus 48 in urban regions.
Similarly, the infant mortality rate is 36 per thousand live births in
rural and 41 in urban areas (NIPORT & ICF, 2020). Behind these
achievements, credit goes to the successful implementation of childhood
vaccination programs (Sarkar et al., 2017). Notably, the vaccination rate

for all mandatory childhood vaccines is higher in the rural (85.8 %) than
in the urban areas (85%) (NIPORT & ICF, 2020).
Table 2 shows the mortality trends and life expectancy in Bangladesh,
demonstrating a decreasing death rate trend, whereas life expectancy has
been increasing over the years. As of 1981, the crude death rate (CDR) was
11.5, which decreased to 4.9 in 2000, and the latest Bangladesh Sample
Vital Statistics reported a CDR of 5.0 in 2018. Following this trend, the
United Nations estimated that Bangladesh's crude death rate (CDR)
would increase in the coming decades from 5.5 in 2020. In the infant and
under-five mortality rates, Bangladesh substantially reduced mortality
rates. According to the latest Demographic and Health Survey, there has
been a two-thirds decline in infant mortality (111 to 38) and nearly three-
fourth decline in under-five mortalities (170 to 45) in the last couple of
decades. Addressing malnutrition, exclusive breastfeeding, vaccinating
the children through Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI), and
better health care facilities are responsible for this significant
improvement of child mortality rates. The United Nations Population
Division of 2020 data mentions current IMR of 22, and under-five
mortality of 26 and estimates to be 11 and 13, respectively in 2040. The
improved maternal health care facilities in pregnancy, delivery, and
postpartum period led to a decreased maternal mortality rate from 322 in
2001 to 194 in 2010. However, maternal mortality increased to 196 deaths
per 100,000 live births in Bangladesh, according to the latest Maternal
Mortality Survey (NIPORT et al., 2019).
Moreover, life expectancy in Bangladesh has also dramatically
increased from 46 years in 1974 to 72.6 years in 2019 and is expected to
increase up to 78 years by 2040 (BBS, 2019). In this regard, women's life
expectancy (74.2 years) is 3.1 years higher than men's (71.1 years). As of
2020, the life expectancy at birth reached 74 years from 54.8 years in
1981, which has added 20 years of life at birth in the preceding 40 years.
Life expectancy at birth seems to be a completely linear increasing trend.
It has been estimated that life expectancy at birth will reach 78 years in
2040, with two years of escalating rates in each decade (United Nations,
2019). With the increase in life expectancy, the emergence of non-
communicable diseases is also on the rise.
Age-structure Transition and Population Ageing

Age structure transition results from the demographic transition process,
which is affiliated with the future population age composition,
dependencies, and most importantly, the economic productivity of a
population. Figure 2 demonstrates the age structure composition of
Bangladesh in four distinct time periods- 1970, 2020, 2030, and 2050.
Since Bangladesh had passed a high fertility span, the changing age
structure demonstrates that a high fertility cohort population is entering
into the working-age groups, creating a youth bulge with the maximum
working-age population. Hence, the dependency ratio will be on lessening
trends for the next couple of decades. By 2040, the dependency ratios will
reach 55.04 and 43.8 against the working-age groups 15-59 and 15-64.
But the demographic transition also results in low death rates with
escalating years of life expectancy. Hence, the proportion of the older
population and old-age dependency will increase in the coming decades,

and dependency ratios will have risen to 53 and 43 by 2040 against the
working-age groups 15-59 and 15-64, respectively. This increasing
number of old age-dependent people require care and support.
According to the World Population Ageing Report 2019, 5.2 percent of

Bangladesh's total population is 65 years and over (United Nations,
2020a). Population aged 60 years and above constitute 8.2 percent of the
total population as of 2019, whereas it was 5.7 percent in 1974 (BBS,
2019). As the UN projects, they will constitute around 12 percent of the
total population in 2030 (Table 3). A majority portion of this elderly

population lives in rural areas. This elderly population resides
predominantly in rural areas where 5.9 percent of the total population is
aged 65 and older, compared to 4.6 percent in urban areas.
Demographic Window of Opportunity: Migration and

Urbanization
Figure 3 demonstrates the decreasing trends of total dependency ratios in
Bangladesh. According to the 2011 census of Bangladesh, the dependency
ratio was 73 and 65 against 15-59 and 15-64 working-age groups,
respectively 2011. These rates were above 100 after the independence of
Bangladesh and dropped to 53.29 and 47 as of 2020, correspondingly.
These figures signifying the bulge of the working-age population
facilitated demographic dividend opportunity (El-Saharty et al., 2014).
Thus, Bangladesh is currently passing a golden opportunity in terms of
the country's population structure. The proportion of the dependent
population (i.e., aged 0-14 years and 60 years and above) is lowest, and
the working-age population (i.e., old 15-59 years) is highest. This window
of opportunity to harness the first demographic dividend is projected to
remain open until 2035-37 (Islam et al., 2022). Though nationally, the
dependency ratio is 51 percent, in rural areas, it is 55 percent. In urban
areas, this rate was 59 percent in 2015 (BBS, 2019). So, it is essential to
harness this potential dividend from the changing age structure in favor
of accelerated economic growth (Bidisha et al., 2019). However, this is not
an automatic process. Instead, it depends on ensuring proper education
and good health for the working-age people, a sound economic
environment, and good governance. In this regard, research-based data
and evidence should be utilized to plan and devise policies for rural and
urban areas.
In 1971, 91.22 percent of the total population (65,205,468) lived in
rural areas, and 8.78 percent in urban regions. Due to the faster
urbanization rate, 37.0 percent of the people are living in urban areas of
Bangladesh (United Nations, 2020b). Along with transportation and
structural changes, people migrate from rural to urban areas for a
multitude of reasons, such as in search of work and better livelihoods, due
to natural disasters like riverbank erosion, and other environmental and
non-environmental factors (Biswas et al., 2019). For this reason, the
population growth rate has decreased in rural areas and increased in
urban areas. Internal migration has played a significant role here.
According to the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES)
2016, any family members from 12.99 percent of rural households have
migrated within one year, whereas this rate is 6.72 percent among urban
households (BBS, 2016a) notably, whether internal or international
migration, the larger share of migrants comes from rural areas of
Bangladesh.
(2020); United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2019). World Population
Sources: Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), Statistics and Information Division (SID) & Ministry of Planning.
Figure 3: Trends of Population Age Structure & Changes in Dependency Ratio, 1974-2040
Prospects 2019, customs data acquired via website.
There is also a clear sex difference among the migrants. Between 2004
and 2011, the number of female migrants increased by about eight
percentage points, reducing the same amount for women. Though the
pattern in the sex ratio of migrants remained almost similar in urban
areas, the share of female migrants increased in rural areas from 2004-to
2011. Regarding the age groups of the migrants, people aged 15-59
constituted the most significant share, which also increased during the
same period.
There has been a net positive growth in yearly labor migration from
Bangladesh. A record 1.1 million Bangladeshis migrated out of the country
in 2017 (Siddiqui et al., 2019). The impact of remittance sent by the
migrants exceeds far beyond economic utilities, including better health
care services and improving health outcomes (Islam et al., 2021).
However, international labor migration is vulnerable to two shocks:
Internal (changes in domestic labor policy of countries of destination)
and External (global economic depression); for example, due to the
ongoing pandemic-induced global economic recession, only 129, 127
people migrated from Bangladesh in 2020 which is the lowest in last three
decades (BMET, 2021).
Transition in Household Size & Nuclear Family Norm

Over time, there has also been a transition in the household (HH) size in
Bangladesh. In 1991, the household sizes were the same in rural and
urban areas at 5.5. In contrast, in 2011, rural HH size became slightly
higher than that of urban regions; the size reduction was common at both
places of residence (4.36 vs. 4.29) (BBS, 2011). Currently, the HH size is
4.3 in Bangladesh (BBS, 2020). However, there is no significant change
observed in terms of HH headship. Now, 15.1 percent of HH in
Bangladesh are headed by women, whereas it was 15.3 percent in 1982,
16.5 percent in rural areas, and 6.9 percent in urban areas (BBS, 2019).
Driving Factors of Development in Bangladesh

Success of Family Planning and Wellbeing
Bangladesh's FP program is regarded as the most successful in the world.
There was little reason for optimism from a war-torn, overpopulated
country with a total fertility rate of more than six children per woman.
Compared to the situation in the 1970s, it is evident that the country has
undergone remarkable changes in terms of fertility rates that were
previously unimaginable. Moreover, arguably, the major credit for
bringing about this change goes to the FP programs (Khuda & Hossain,
1996; Bora et al., 2022; Cleland et al., 1994). The contraceptive prevalence
rate was only eight percent among married women aged 15-49 years in
1975. By 1993-93, around half of the married women were using
contraceptive methods in the country, which reached 61 percent in 2011
and remained stagnant at 62 percent as of 2017-18 (NIPORT & ICF,

2020).
Success of Childhood Immunization Programs

Mortality transition in the form of a reduced child mortality rate initiates
a country's demographic transition cycle. In Bangladesh, significant
improvements in childhood mortality are brought about by successful
childhood immunization programs. In 2017-18, 86 percent of children
aged 12-23 months and 85 percent aged 24-35 months received all
essential vaccinations by the age of 12 months, which was only 46 percent
in 1993-94 (NIPORT & ICF, 2020).
The government of Bangladesh initiated the Expanded Program on
Immunization (EPI) with the support of UNICEF and WHO. The
government initiated various outreach activities in 1979, intending to
immunize all children by 1990 to prevent vaccine-preventable diseases
and eradicate poliomyelitis (Sarkar et al., 2017). In 1995, the national
immunization day was initiated by EPI to sustain the polio-free status and
also to increase the immunization coverage that was achieved through
different operational activities. The implementation of the EPI has
already been shown to be a great success globally (Jamil et al., 1999;
Sarkar et al., 2017). In the line of success, Bangladesh has experienced
impressive improvements in increasing immunization coverage,
significantly reducing childhood morbidity and mortality, and
maintaining its polio-free status.
Girls Educations, Gender Parity in Primary and Secondary

Schooling
Bangladesh has made remarkable progress in girls' education and
achieving gender parity in primary and secondary schooling. The country
presents a success story globally (Sosale et al., 2019; Sperandio, 2007).
The country's net enrollment rate at the primary school level increased to
above 90 percent in 2015. Since the 1980s, secondary school enrolments
for girls jumped from 39 in 1998 to 67 percent in 2017. With nearly 6.4
million girls in secondary school in 2015, Bangladesh was among the few
countries to achieve gender parity in school enrollment. It had more girls
than boys in secondary schools (Shilpi et al., 2017). As reported in the
UNFPA State of World Population Report 2019, Bangladesh scored 1.07
in the gender parity index of primary education in 2017. The girls'
enrollment ratio outnumbered boys (92 versus 98 percent).
Similarly, a higher parity index value of 1.17 was found in secondary

education, where the net enrollment rate for boys was 57 percent, and that
of girls was 67 percent (UNFPA, 2020). However, the dropout rates for
girls are also high at 42 percent at the secondary school level; completion
rates are low, with grade 10 rates bottoming at only 10 percent, and
secondary level completion rates reaching a mere 59 percent (Shilpi et al.,
2017). However, Bangladesh scored 0.904 on Gender Development Index
2020, which is much higher than India (0.820) and Pakistan (0.745) as
well as in comparison with the South Asian regional value (0.824)
(UNDP, 2020).
Raising Awareness through Behavior Change Communication

Activities
The provision of Information, Education, and Communication (IEC) on
selected health, family planning, and nutrition issues has been one of the
critical drivers of positive changes in these sectors, despite the low literacy
rate and the inferior status of other socio-economic status in Bangladesh.
The country has more than four decades of these IEC activities. Through
these programs, communication activities have brought about behavioral
changes towards small family size norms, promotion of family welfare,
and nutrition awareness, which facilitated increased CPR, decreased
TFR, IMR, MMR, etc. In addition, understanding safe motherhood,
breastfeeding practice, childhood immunization, neonatal care,
adolescent health care, gender issues and violence against women, etc.,
received targeted attention through a particular emphasis on
interpersonal communication and electronic and print media. Since its
inception in 1971, the government has dedicated the Information,
Education, and Motivation (IEM) unit under the Directorate General of
Family Planning (DGFP) to play a crucial role in implementing the IEC
programs throughout the country along with several multi-sectoral
ministries.
Role of Non-Government Organizations

Bangladesh achieved great success in health, especially in the
improvements in the survival of infants and children under five years of
age, life expectancy, immunization coverage, and tuberculosis, even in the
South Asian countries, despite being the poorest country in the world
(Chowdhury et al., 2013; Das & Horton, 2013). Much of the successes in
Bangladesh are commonly attributed to the activities undertaken by the
civil society and non-government organizations (NGOs) in Bangladesh
(Hassan, 2015). The journey of NGOs in Bangladesh can be traced back

long before the independence of the country. NGOs are intertwined at the
grassroots levels of the government, working on a wide array of domains
such as health, education, relief and rehabilitation, microcredit loan
programs, and so on. As of January 2020, 2,245 registered national NGOs
were operating in Bangladesh (NGO Affairs Bureau, 2020). Bangladesh
Rural Advancement Committee (BRAC), the largest NGO in Bangladesh
as well as in the world, successfully reduced maternal mortality in 10
districts and was successful in the performance of detecting (78%) and
recovering (92%) Tuberculosis in its working area (Hassan, 2015). Other
major NGOs in Bangladesh are Gonoshasthaya Kendra, Proshika,
Grameen Bank, Association for Social Advancement (ASA), Dhaka
Ahsania Mission, etc.
Sustained Economic Growth and Reduction in Poverty

In the last 50 years, Bangladesh has made remarkable progress in
economic development (World Bank, 2021). The GDP growth rate has
increased from 3.0 percent in 1973 to 8.2 percent in 2019 (World Bank,
2019). As of 2016, the population living under the poverty line, as
internationally measured by daily income below $1.90, was 14.3 percent
and 38.8 percent in 1983. The headcount poverty ratio has reduced from
48.9 percent in 2000 to 24.3 in 2016 (BBS, 2016a). However, the
headcount poverty ratio estimate is higher in rural areas by 7.5 percent
than in the urban. Yet, there has been no improvement in income
inequality; instead, it has worsened from 25.9 percent in 1983 to 32.4 in
2016 (BBS, 2016a). The Gini coefficient increased from 0.458 in 2010 to
0.482 in 2016, an increment observed both in rural (0.454) and urban
(0.498) areas (BBS, 2016a).
From 1976 to 2020, 1.3 million Bangladeshis migrated to various
destination countries across the globe, from where BDT 1,756,020.82
crore was received as remittance (BMET 2021). The majority of these
international migrants come from rural areas of Bangladesh and are
primarily engaged in unskilled or semi-skilled jobs (Siddiqui et al., 2019).
The remittance sent by these migrants plays a pivotal role in the economy
of Bangladesh. According to the HIES 2016, during the last year of the
survey tenure, 9.39 percent of rural households migrated abroad. Men
and women aged 25-34 years were more likely to migrate from rural and
urban areas. Remittances are used for 70.7 percent of basic needs and
26.6 percent for investments. Only 1.70 percent is retained as savings.
Compared with their counterparts, 9.5 percent of remittance money is
used more in investments in rural areas; in urban areas, eight percent is

used more to fulfill basic needs (BBS, 2016a). However, further research
on the impact of this remittance money on empowerment, ownership of
assets, and familial and other relationships in rural areas and Bangladesh
needs to be carried out.
Challenges of Population and Development

High Maternal Mortality Ratio
Reduction in Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) is another significant
challenge in Bangladesh. After considerable decline from 2001 to 2010,
the MMR remained stagnant or slightly increased. According to the
Bangladesh Maternal Mortality Survey 2016, MMR (i.e., the number of
deaths of mothers per one-hundred thousand live births), was 322 in
2001, which decreased to 194 in 2010 and marginally increased to 196 in
2016 (NIPORT et al., 2019). A stark rural-urban difference is visible here.
In 2001, the MMR in rural areas was 326, which was significantly reduced
to 199 in 2010. Then, in 2016, it again increased to 216.6, being 137.7 in
urban areas. Thus, there is a clear, significant rural-urban difference in
MMR in Bangladesh, much higher in the rural areas. However,
considering the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target or
commitments for the ICPD+25, lowering MMR to 70 by 2030 is a
herculean challenge. In this regard, a particular focus should be granted
to the rural areas. Also, availability and access to quality services should
be ensured for all (Islam & Gagnon, 2016), keeping in mind that 50
percent of all births in the country per year occur at home. Here,
treatment for hemorrhage and eclampsia is vital because these two
complications are the primary causes of 55 percent of all maternal deaths.
Moreover, the increasing trend of births by Caesarean section at an
alarming rate is another matter of concern that needs to be tackled. WHO
suggests an acceptable C-section delivery rate of around 10-15 percent,
but the 2017-2018 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey data
reported its prevalence to be 33 percent in Bangladesh. The 2019 Multiple
Indicators Cluster Survey (MICS) reported an increased rate of 36
percent. As high rates of C-section deliveries have severe implications on
health sector resources and the mother's health, policy measures should
be enforced to reduce the incidence of unnecessary C-section surgeries in
Bangladesh (Islam et al., 2019).
High Prevalence of Child Marriage

In Bangladesh, child marriage prevalence is the third highest globally,
only outnumbered by two African countries--Central African Republic
and Chad (UNFPA, 2019; Islam & Gagnon, 2014). According to the BDHS
2017-18, 59.9 percent of women aged 20-24 years in Bangladesh are
married off before 18 years, which is the highest rate of child marriage in
Asia. Nearly more million child marriages occur every year. Notably, this
rate of child marriage is 60.7 percent in rural areas, 6.1 percent higher
than that in urban areas (NIPORT & ICF, 2020). It is now widely
recognized that child marriage gives birth to a multitude of other
problems such as adolescent motherhood, low birth weight and poor
nutrition of children born to child mothers, dropping education, lower
participation in the labor force, and so which not only hamper health and
wellbeing of women but also restrict rights and choices of women and
impede the development of a country as a whole (Islam et al., 2016).
Therefore, this problem of child marriage needs proper attention and
effective policy intervention so that Bangladesh can fulfill Target 5.3 of
SDGs that aims to ‘eliminate all harmful practices, such as child, early and
forced marriage and female genital mutilations’ by 2030 and associated
eight other goals of SDG that are intertwined with the child marriage
(Girls Not Brides, 2019).
Adolescent Motherhood and High Unmet Need for Family

Planning
Adolescent motherhood is one of the burning challenges in Bangladesh
(Islam et al., 2017), with the highest age-specific fertility rate of 27.7
percent (NIPORT & ICF, 2020). In 1993-94, this rate was 33 percent
among adolescent mothers aged 15-19 years, only a 5.3 percent reduction
in the last 25 years (1993-2018). In particular, the prevalence of
adolescent motherhood is six percent higher in rural areas (29.3%) than
in urban areas (23.3%). Also, the unmet need for contraceptives is the
highest among the age group 15-24. Where the unmet national need is 12
percent among the married adolescent of 15-19 years (15.5) and 15.7
percent among the married women aged 20-24; therefore, it is essential
to devise efficient interventions to reduce the prevalence of adolescent
motherhood in Bangladesh, especially targeting in the rural areas. Along
with fulfilling the unmet need for contraception among teenage mothers,
the root of the problem, i.e., child marriage, needs eradication.
Stagnant Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Contraceptive

Prevalence Rate (CPR)
Fertility in Bangladesh has declined rapidly since the mid-1970s, but the
country has experienced two fertility stalls. The first stall occurred at TFR
3.3 from 1996-to 2000, and the second stall occurred at 2.3 births per
woman from 2011 to 2018 (NIPORT & ICF, 2020; Rahman, 2018). CPR
has also seemed to be stagnant in recent decades (ibid). In 1975, the CPR
was only 8 percent, which significantly increased to around 62 percent in
2011. After that, it did not change during 2011-18. According to the latest
BDHS 2017-18, the CPR among married women aged 15-49 years was
61.9 percent, whereas 51.9 percent use modern methods of contraception
with no visible improvement in terms of usage of longer acting or
permanent methods. This CPR is 60.4 percent in rural areas, which is 5
percent less than in urban areas. There also exists significant regional
variation in terms of CPR, such as, by division, the use of modern
contraceptives is highest in Rangpur (59%) and lowest in Chattogram
(45%) and Sylhet (45%), representing a difference of 14 percent (NIPORT
& ICF, 2020). Moreover, the unmet need for contraception is 12 percent
among married women aged 15-49 years. Thus, the unmet need for
contraception has reduced by only 1.5 percent from 2011-to 18. This
reduction was nearly 4 percent higher in rural areas (13.1 percent) than
in urban areas (NIPORT & ICF, 2020). Notably, another neglected aspect
is the contraceptive discontinuation rate. Almost four in 10 contraceptive
users discontinue a method within the first year of use. The
discontinuation rate increased from 30 percent in 2014 to 37 in 2017.
Moreover, the country could not fulfill the objectives and goals of the
National Population Policy (NPP) 2012. The NPP 2012 aimed at achieving
a replacement level fertility of 2.1 by the year 2015.
Ironically, with a different timeline, this target was the same in the
NPP 2004. The CPR target is to reach 72 percent by 2015 in the NPP 2012.
According to the Government's Vision 2010-21, Bangladesh is to achieve
a TFR level of 1.7 with CPR at 80 percent, whereas these targets were 2.0
and 75 percent, respectively, in the 7th Five Year Plan (FYP) of
Bangladesh. Evidently, none of these could be achieved. For this reason,
the target is kept the same in the 8th FYP (2020-2025).
Challenges of Meeting the Needs of the Ageing

According to official statistics, around 7.5 percent (12.5 million) of the
country's total population constitutes older people, while the number is
expected to increase sharply and reach around 20 percent (over 40
million) by 2050. According to the latest international population report

of the US Census Bureau, by 2060 the size of the growing older population
aged 65 and above will be 43.6 million and the country will be ranked as
7th in the world (He et al., 2022). It poses a new challenge for the
government as the number of dependents keeps rising, which demands
corresponding steps to ensure their rights, dignity, and wellbeing. Older
adults experience multiple challenges in terms of their needs, demands,
and vulnerabilities. As the Housing and Population Census 2011 shows,
more than two-thirds of the elderly population are economically
insolvent. On top of that the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has added
extra risks and suffering to this age group. A minority portion of this huge
group population experience pension or other social safety net facilities.
The majority are dependent on their savings, assets, or children.
Moreover, as the joint family culture is on the decline with the increasing
norm of nuclear families, care for the elderly has become a crucial
challenge.
Challenges to Achieving First Demographic Dividend

As highlighted above, Bangladesh is passing through a golden time in
harnessing potential demographic dividends from the favorable
population age structure. But reaping the benefits of a demographic
dividend is neither guaranteed nor automated. Besides, the history of
demographic transitions across the globe provides substantial evidence
that 'demographic dividend is driven by human capital, and not just with
the increase in working-age population' (Lutz et al., 2019). Though the
proportion of the working-age population is on the rise, there is no
improvement in the unemployment rates – 4.6 percent in 2010 (4.3% in
2013 to 2016-17). In this regard, the unemployment rate is lower in rural
areas (4.0 percent) than in urban areas (4.9 percent) (BBS, 2018).
According to the last Labor Force Survey in Bangladesh, among the youth
population aged 15-29 years, the unemployment rate has continually
increased to 10.6 percent. It is 10.2 percent in rural areas and 11.6 percent
in urban areas. Nearly 30 percent of youth of this age group were either
in education, employment, or training (NEET) of which 87 percent of
them were women. In rural areas, the rate of NEET is 29.9 percent, and
29.5 percent in urban areas. To increase their labor force participation in
Bangladesh's rural and urban areas, a wide-scale investment log with
planned intervention is urgently needed following policy level and
functional or operational level (Islam, 2021). Moreover, the female labor
force participation rate is still low. The ratio of female to male labor force
participation rate in 2017 was 45.1 percent. Only 36.2 percent of the total
female population aged 15 years and above were engaged in the labor
market, whereas the similar estimate for males was 80.67 percent (World
Bank, 2019).
Therefore, all depends on how much a nation invests in critical areas
to produce human capital, such as education, health and nutrition, and
good governance, in a favorable economic environment where the vast
majority of the working-age population can contribute to development
(Bidisha et al., 2020). Unfortunately, health and education are not
adequately prioritized in Bangladesh, specifically in terms of budgetary
allocation for these two crucial drivers of demographic dividend. For
example, UNESCO suggests an education budget to be 4-6 percent of the
country's GDP, only 2.09 percent of country's GDP for the fiscal year (FY)
2020-2021. As a share of the total FY budget, the education budget
decreased from 14 percent in FY 2009-10 to 11.7 percent in FY 2020-21.
The budgetary allocation for the health sector is also negligible. Less than
1 percent of GDP is allocated to the health sector, which comprises 5.14
percent of the total budget for FY21. Here the out-of-pocket health
expenditure is still very high in Bangladesh (72.7% of current health
expenditure in 2019) compared to the global average (18%) and many
neighboring countries (Nepal—57.9%, India—54.8%, Sri Lanka—54.6%,
and Pakistan 53.8%) (WHO, 2021).
Challenges Associated with High Population Density

Bangladesh is already the most densely populated nation-state globally,
with 1265.2 people living per square kilometer of the country, which is
projected to reach 1447.5 in 2040 (United Nations, 2020). This is
particularly alarming as the classical theory about the effects of high
density is mainly negative, such that high density produces negative social
attitudes and undesirable behaviors (Verbrugge & Taylor, 1980). In other
words, large population size and feelings that an area is overpopulated
produce frustrations about the environment. Moreover, the built
environment directly affects personal relationships and neighborhood
relations, implying that high-density areas have a detrimental effect on
the health and wellbeing of the residents (Winsborought, 1965). However,
another negative consequence of high population density for the country
would be weak institutions and their dysfunctionality. Population density
should be among the core of population-related planning and program
implementations for this to happen. Therefore, the organizations and
institutions of the country should be made resilient and effectively

functional with the increasing population density.
Challenges of Rapid Urbanization

Until 2019, more than 37 percent of the total population in Bangladesh
lived in urban areas, while this share was only 8 percent in 1971 (United
Nations, 2020). This indicates a sharp and consistent increase of
urbanization at an alarming rate of 2.5 percent per year, while the annual
growth rate of the population was 1-2 percent. Cities in Bangladesh are
faced with the challenges of rapid population increase characterized by
crises such as lack of economic dynamism, governance failure, poor
infrastructure and service deficiencies, inadequate land administration,
massive slums, and social breakdown. However, despite the severity of
these obstacles, urban centers continue to grow resulting in exceptionally
high population density, but relatively low economic density (GDP or
value-added per square km) (Hussain, 2013). For example, economic
activity is unsustainably concentrated in Dhaka and Chittagong. About 9
percent of the country’s population lives in the Dhaka metropolitan area,
contributing to 36 percent of the country's GDP. Chittagong, the second-
largest city with 3% of the country's population, contributes an additional
11 percent to the nation's GDP. Therefore, planned urbanization will play
a crucial role in Bangladesh's economic development and ensure healthy
and sustainable cities.
Climate Change and Displaced Population

Climate change is one of the topmost concerns for Bangladesh, where low
elevation, high population density, and inadequate infrastructure all put
the country in vulnerable situations (EJF, 2018; Nur, 2015). As the
country is naturally susceptible to extreme weather, the people have
always used migration as a coping strategy. Sea level rise, storms,
cyclones, drought, erosion, landslides, flooding and salinization, are
already displacing many people. It has been estimated that by 2050, one
in every seven people in Bangladesh will be displaced by climate change,
with 18 million people dislocated due to the sea level rise alone (EJF,
2018). Approximately 10,000 hectares of land are lost in Bangladesh
every year to riverbank erosion (Rahman, 2010). While two-thirds of the
country is already less than five meters above sea level, by 2050, with a
projected 50 cm rise, the country may lose approximately 11 percent of its
land, affecting an estimated 15 million people living in its low-lying
coastal region (EJF, 2018). Thus, the impacts are likely to be greater in
terms of people's health and wellbeing and affect the country's economy
as it heavily relies on farming.
Moreover, Bangladesh, not a signatory of the 1951 Refugee Convention
or its 1967 Protocol, has hosted in Cox's Bazar more than one million
Rohingya Population—the Forcibly Displaced Myanmar Nationals
(FDMN). In two of the most deprived sub-districts of the country—
Ukhiya and Teknaf—the enormous scale of the influx is putting immense
pressure on the host communities and existing facilities and services
(Islam et al., 2021; Hossain & Hossain, 2021). Moreover, the ongoing
COVID-19 pandemic has further exacerbated the humanitarian crisis
scenario in the refugee camps (Islam & Yunus, 2020). Given that the
repatriation discussion for these persecuted minorities is less obvious,
this will be a national security concern for Bangladesh in the long run
(Hossain et al., 2020).
High Prevalence of Gender-Based Violence (GBV)

Violence against Women (VAW) is a global problem that violates women's
rights. Bangladesh has become one of the pioneer countries in the world
in conducting VAW surveys in 2011 and 2015 following the call of the
United Nations General Assembly. According to the latter survey, almost
two thirds (72%) of ever-married women experienced one or more of the
five forms of violence (physical, sexual, economic, emotional, and
controlling behavior) by their husband at least once in their lifetime, and
54 percent experienced violence during the last 12 months. By contrast,
these two indicators were found at 87 and 77 percent, respectively in the
2011 survey.
Furthermore, a large proportion (41%) of women experiencing
physical or sexual violence suffered injuries due to that violence, while 12
percent reported injuries during the last 12 months (BBS, 2016b).
Furthermore, the survey found that rates of lifetime partner violence (any
form) were highest in rural areas (74% of ever-married women) and
lowest in city corporation areas (54.4%). Therefore, such persistent
gender inequalities and violence against women must be addressed to
achieve the SDG target of women's empowerment.
High Prevalence of Child and Adult Malnutrition

Though the 4th Health, Population, and Nutrition Sector Program (2017-
22) aimed at reducing the prevalence of stunting to 25 percent by 2022,
its prevalence is significantly higher among children in Bangladesh. In
2017, 31 percent of children under five were stunted, and 9 percent were
severely stunted (NIPORT & ICF, 2020). Child nutritional status has
improved steadily over the past decade. The level of stunting among
children under five has declined from 43 in 2007 to 31 percent in 2017.
The level of underweight has declined from 41 in 2007 to 22 percent in
2017, and after years of a critically high level of around 15 percent, the
prevalence of wasting came down to 8 percent in 2017. Additionally, there
is also the double burden of malnutrition (WHO, 2016)–characterized by
the coexistence of undernutrition and overweight, obesity, or diet-related
NCDs among the Population, especially women and children, belonging
to two extremes of poorest and richest wealth quintiles. Over the ten years
(2000-2004), overweight and obesity there has been no significant
reduction in underweight. Tanwi et al. (2019) found that the prevalence
of underweight decreased by 43.2 percent (from 32.2% in 2004 to 18.3%
in 2014), and overweight and obesity increased by 130.5 percent (from
10.5% in 2004 to 24.2% in 2014). Moreover, the proportion of women
who are overweight or obese (a BMI of 25.0 or above) has increased from
12 to 32 percent (NIPORT & ICF, 2020).
Epidemiological Transition and Double Burden of Diseases

Bangladesh is in the midst of an epidemiologic transition, where the
burden of sickness is shifting from a disease profile dominated by
infectious diseases, under-nutrition, and conditions of childbirth to one
increasingly characterized by Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs)
(Figure 3); such coexistence of both the forms of diseases is termed as
'double burden of disease' (WHO, 2016). In 2000, half of the deaths in
the country were attributable to infectious diseases and maternal,
prenatal, and nutrition conditions, which, over twenty years, reduced to
22.6 percent in 2019. In the same time period, NCDs rose from 43.1 to
70.3 percent. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and
Evaluation, stroke, ischemic heart disease (e.g., hypertension, heart
attack), Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD), diabetes, and
lung cancer were the leading causes of death, along with non-
communicable diseases like bacterial and protozoal diarrhoea, hepatitis
A and E, typhoid fever, Dengue, Malaria, and so on (IHME, 2021). The
ongoing communicable COVID-19 pandemic has affected Bangladesh
causing more than 29,000 deaths and 1.98 million infections by early July
2022 (DGHS, 2022). Pandemic has already changed mortality patterns,
with more deaths among the elderly.
Challenges to Providing Disaggregated Population Data for

the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
Understanding population progress requires up-to-date, high-quality,
accurate, and reliable data disaggregated by income, gender, age, race,
ethnicity, migratory status, disability, geographic location, and other
relevant contextual factors. However, in Bangladesh, there is a lack of
disaggregated population data. Almost half (47.4 percent) of all the 232
indicators to monitor the 17 SDGs are unavailable, 25 percent are partially
available, and 27.6 percent are readily available (GED, 2018; Islam,
2019a). Besides, no less than 35 percent of the indicators' metadata is
finalized by the Inter-Agency and Expert Group on Sustainable
Development Goal Indicators (IAEG-SDGs) (GED, 2018). To monitor and
implement the SDGs by 2030, disaggregated data are necessary.
Moreover, concerns have been raised about the quality of data. Often,
there are considerable delays in releasing detailed analytical reports of
the census and surveys for which data do not become readily available to
researchers (Hayes & Jones, 2015).
Challenges and Gaps to Implement Policies and Programs
Historically, Bangladesh's national policies were initiated immediately

after independence and widened as new national and international
challenges emerged. The Bangladesh Delta Plan (BDP 2100), Perspective
Plan (2021-2041), and the Eighth Five Year Plan (FYP 2021-2025) are
current long-term policies and programs. The country also has specific
policies such as National Population Policy 2012 (NPP 2012) or National
Health Policy 2011, and sector-wide programs such as 4th Health,
Population, and Nutrition Sector Program (HPNSP, 2017-2022).
National policies are frequently criticized for failing to achieve their
stated goals and objectives due to implementation problems. In many
cases, these remain merely rhetorical and impractical, thus not achieving
specific objectives. Inadequate resource mobilization and management,
lack of coordination among stakeholders, and inadequate
implementation monitoring by the implementing committee or other
designated authorities are also major flaws (Islam, 2019b). For example,
NPP 2012 (GoB, 2014) mandated that the National Population Council
(NPC), headed by the prime minister, would coordinate and monitor
inter-ministerial activities for policy implementation and evaluate its
impact through two general meetings per year, but there has not been one
in the past 12 years.
Moreover, there is an apparent lack of coherence and coordination

between consecutive policy and program targets. For example, the target
of reaching TFR 2.1 was the same in both NPP 2004 and NPP 2012.
However, in the 7th Five Year Plan (FYP 2016-21) and the first
Perspective Plan (2010-2021), the target of TFR was set at 1.7. Moreover,
the National Youth Policy 2003 was updated in 2017, after a long interval
of 14 years. Most of the relevant policies like National population Policy
2012, National Health Policy 2011, National Education Policy 2010,
National Labor Policy 2012, National Women Development Policy 2011,
National Policy on Older Persons 2013 are not updated yet under
changing demographics as well as mandated to achieve the SDGs.
Therefore, more coordination and linked integration of population issues
in policies and plans are pivotal, especially in adopting population
management and human resource formulation, keeping in line with the
ICPD Plan of Action and the SDGs (Islam, 2019b).
Conclusions and Implications

This article aimed at critically assessing the population and development
journey of Bangladesh over the past 50 years, highlighting achievements
and their drivers and identifying challenges ahead. The country has made
great strides in reducing total fertility, increasing contraceptive use,
improving infant and child mortality, increasing life expectancy at birth,
reducing maternal mortality, increasing gender parity in schooling,
empowering women, and achieving economic growth. Notably,
Bangladesh's 'demographic window of opportunity' can be turned into a
'demographic dividend' through planned investments in health and
education to produce human capital and create enough jobs for the
increased labor force. Utilizing this demographic dividend will foster
sustainable development; failing to do so will create a ‘demographic
burden.’
Current and future challenges may impede further development of the
country. The reduction of the total fertility rate, the prevalence of child
marriage, adolescent motherhood, and their unmet need for
contraceptives, and maternal mortality rates are crucial demographic
challenges. In addition, the double burden of diseases and malnutrition,
compounded by population aging is likely to exert severe pressure on the
country's already vulnerable health system. Other challenges related to
development include persistent high youth unemployment rate, low
female labor force participation, increased vulnerabilities imposed by
climate change, etc.
This paper identifies Bangladesh's most pressing concerns and

recommends immediate action to address them. Specifically, the
government should take urgent action to address the high prevalence of
child marriage, high unmet need for family planning, high maternal
mortality, and gender-based violence committed at the ICPD25+ and
mandated by the SDGs to achieve by 2030. Moreover, the COVID-19
pandemic has affected people’s health, compromised their social lives,
and halted economic development. Thus, Bangladesh must 'build back
better' by focusing on individual rights, choices, equality, and quality of
life. Population and development issues should be prioritized, integrated
into national development plans and policies, monitored, and evaluated
with updated, quality data and good governance.
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About the Authors
Mohammad Mainul Islam

Dr. Mohammad Mainul Islam is Professor and former Chairman of the
Department of Population Sciences, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh. He
received his Ph.D. in Demography from Peking University, China, and
later completed a Global Health Research Capacity Strengthening
Program Postdoctoral Fellowship at McGill University, Canada. His work
broadly focuses on population and development, global health,
population dynamics, population and health policies, and programs in
Bangladesh.
Md. Anwer Hossain
Md. Anwer Hossain completed his graduation and post-graduation from
the Department of Population Sciences, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh.
As a Research Assistant, he has worked on various projects in the same

Department. His research interests include fertility, women
empowerment, sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR), and
the displaced population- Rohingya.
Rahul Kumar Sanjowal completed his graduation and post-
graduation from the Department of Population Sciences of the University
of Dhaka, Bangladesh. He is currently working as an
independent researcher. Earlier, he worked as a Project Associate in the
Department. His research interests include migration, development,
inequality, and population ageing.
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Bangladesh at Fifty: Changes and Challenges in Population and Development

Article · July 2022

Mohammad Mainul Islam Md. Anwer Hossain

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Rahul Kumar Sanjowal

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Bangladesh at Fifty: Changes and Challenges in

Keywords: Population and Development; Demographic transition; Population

1976; Bertocci, 1977; Arthur & McNicoll, 1978) to a 'development surprise'

At this milestone in the nation's history, it's important to examine

Data and Methods

Findings and Discussions

Table 1 demonstrates that in the fifty years since the country's

Demographic Transitions in Bangladesh

Mortality Transition and Increasing Longevity

vaccination programs (Sarkar et al., 2017). Notably, the vaccination rate

Age-structure Transition and Population Ageing

population and old-age dependency will increase in the coming decades,

According to the World Population Ageing Report 2019, 5.2 percent of

total population in 2030 (Table 3). A majority portion of this elderly

Demographic Window of Opportunity: Migration and

Prospects 2019, customs data acquired via website.

Transition in Household Size & Nuclear Family Norm

Driving Factors of Development in Bangladesh

and remained stagnant at 62 percent as of 2017-18 (NIPORT & ICF,

Success of Childhood Immunization Programs

Girls Educations, Gender Parity in Primary and Secondary

Similarly, a higher parity index value of 1.17 was found in secondary

Raising Awareness through Behavior Change Communication

Role of Non-Government Organizations

(Hassan, 2015). The journey of NGOs in Bangladesh can be traced back

Sustained Economic Growth and Reduction in Poverty

used more in investments in rural areas; in urban areas, eight percent is

Challenges of Population and Development

High Prevalence of Child Marriage

Adolescent Motherhood and High Unmet Need for Family

Stagnant Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and Contraceptive

Challenges of Meeting the Needs of the Ageing

million) by 2050. According to the latest international population report

Challenges to Achieving First Demographic Dividend

Challenges Associated with High Population Density

institutions of the country should be made resilient and effectively

Challenges of Rapid Urbanization

Climate Change and Displaced Population

High Prevalence of Gender-Based Violence (GBV)

High Prevalence of Child and Adult Malnutrition

Epidemiological Transition and Double Burden of Diseases

Challenges to Providing Disaggregated Population Data for

Challenges and Gaps to Implement Policies and Programs

Historically, Bangladesh's national policies were initiated immediately

Moreover, there is an apparent lack of coherence and coordination

Conclusions and Implications

This paper identifies Bangladesh's most pressing concerns and

relationship between dependency ratio and economic growth? Evidence

El-Saharty, S. Ahsan, K.Z. & May, J.F. (2014). Harnessing the

urbanization. End Poverty in South Asia. World Bank.

Islam, M. M. & Yunus, M. Y. (2020). Rohingya refugees are at high risk of

Siddiqui, T., Sultana, M., Sultana, R. & Akhter, S. (2019). Labour

density and size. Urban Affairs Review, 16(2): 135-160.

About the Authors

Mohammad Mainul Islam