Problems

1. An aquarium had 6 fishes-3 mollies, 2 guppies and 6. A hospital administrator codes incoming patients suf-
1 platy. Sam caught 2 fishes first and then put them back fering gunshot wounds according to whether they have
before catching another fish from the aquarium. Describe insurance (coding 1 if they do and 0 if they do not) and
the sample space. If sam didn't replace the fishes caught according to their condition, which is rated as good (g), fair
first, what will be the sample space? (f), or serious (s). Consider an experiment that consists of
the coding of such a patient.
2. In an experiment, die is rolled continually until a 6 (a) Give the sample space of this experiment.
appears, at which point the experiment stops. What is the (b) Let A be the event that the patient is in serious condi-
sample space of this experiment? Let E, denote the event the outcomes inA.
that n rolls are necessary to complete the experiment.On. Specify
What points of the sample space are contained in E,? (c) Let B be the event that the patient is uninsured. Specify
the outcomes in B.
what iUE (d) Give all the outcomes in the event BeUA.

3. A pair of dice consisting of a six-sided die and a four 7. A pizza can be of two types based on its contents - either

sided die is rolled and the sum is determined. Let A be the veg or non-veg and based on its type of crust- it can be
event that a sum of 7 is rolled and let B be the event that classified into thin crust, bread crust or cheese crust. If
a sum of 6 or a sum of 7 is rolled and C be the event that there are 10 pizzas at a particular pizzateria, obtain the
dies have the same value. Describe the sample space and number of elements in the sample space of an experiment
theevents AB, BC, ABC, AUBUC and AB°C. consisting of determining the type of these pizzas. How
many outcomes are present in the event that at least one
4. Consider two events A and B such that P(A) = 1/2 of the pizzas is non-veg?
P(B) = 1/4. Determine the value of P(AB°) for each of
the following cases: 8. Let A and B two events such that
P(A) =
P(B) = 1/3
(a) A and B are disjoint. and P(AB)=3/5. Hence, obtain P(A UB).
(b) BCAA
(c) P(AB) = 1/10 9. A retail establishment accepts either the American
Express the
or VISA credit card. A total of 24
percent
5. A system is composed of 5 components, each of which of its customers carry an American
is either working or failed. Consider an cent carry a VISA card, and 11
Express card, 61 per-
experiment that percent carry both cards.
consists of observing the status of each What percentage of its customers
component, and carry a credit card that
let the outcome of the experiment be the establishment will
given by the vector accept?
(1,X2,X3, X4, X5), where xj is equal to 1 if component i is
working and is equal to 0 if component i is failed. 10.Sixty percent of the students at a certain school wear
(a) How many outcomes neither a ring nor a necklace.
are in the sample space of this Twenty percent wear a ringg
experiment? and 30 percent wear a necklace. If one of the students is
(b) Suppose that the system will work if chosen randomly, what is the
2 are both components 1 and is wearing
probability that this student
working, or if components 3 and 4 are both
working, or if components 1, 3, and 5 are all working. Let (a)
(a) a ring or a necklace?
W be the event that the
outcomes in W.
system will work. Specify all the (b) a ring and a necklace?

(c) Let A be the event that 11. A total of 28

percent of American males smoke
failed. How many outcomes components
4 and 5 are both
are contained in the
event A? cigarettes, 7 percent smoke
cigars, and 5 percent smok
smoke
(d) Write out all the outcomes in the event AW. both cigars and
cigarettes.
 What percentage of males smokes neither cigars nor poker hands are

Cgarettes2
otage smokes cigars but not
cigarettes?2
15. If it is assumed that all
()
probability of being
dealt
equally likely, what is the
are or
hand is said to be a flush
if all 5 cards
An
elementary
school is
offering 3 language
offe
classes: a)
a flush? (A

one in French. and one in

German. The the same suit.)
one
in Spanish,
open to any of the 100 students in the school (b)one pair? (This occurs when the cards have
classes a
28 students in the Spanish class, 26 in the French tions a, a, b, c, d, where a, b, c, and d are all distin
There are 2
denomi-
66 in the German class. There are 12 students
class, a n d
(c) two pairs? (This occurs when the cards have
both
bin
Spanish and French, 4 who are in both nations a, a, b, b, c, where a, b, and c are all distinct.)
are
who
Spanish a n d German, and 6 who are in both French and (d) three of a kind? (This occurs when the cards have
addition, are 2 students taking all 3
addition, there are denominations a, a, a, b, c, where a, b, and c are 2n d
German. In
classes
tinct.)
tudent is chosen randomly, what is the probability
(a) I f a s t u d e n
(e) four of a kind? (This occurs when the cards have
she is
not in any ofthe language classes? denominations a, a, a, a, b.)
or
that he
student is chosen randomly,what is the probability
she is taking exactly one language class? 16. Poker dice is played by simultaneously rolling 5 dice.
that h or
domly, what is the Show that
tudents are chosen proba-
(c) If2 1 is taking a language class? (a) P{no two alike) = 0926;
that at least
bility
(b) P{one pair) = 4630;
13 A certain town with a population of 100,000 has 3 (c) Pltwo pair) = 2315;
newspapers: 1, I, andi l . Theproportions of townspeople (d) P{three alike)=.1543;
who read these papers are as follows: (e) P{full house) = .0386;

I and II: 8 percent I and II and ( Plfour alike) = .0193;

I: 10 percent
III: 1 percent (g) P{five alike) = .0008.
II: 30 percent I and II: 2 percent
II1: 5 percent II and II: 4 percent 17. If 8 rooks randomly placed on a chess-
(castles) are

board, compute the probability that none of the rooks

can

(Thelist tells us, for instance, that 8000 people read

news-

papers I and IL.) capture any of the others. That is, compute the probability
that no row or file contains more than one rook.

(a) Find the number of people who read only one newspa-

per. 18. A deck consists of 52 playing cards which is

well

(6) How many people read at least two newspapers? shuffled. Draw 6 cards. Find the probability that among the
II is an evening cards there will be a representative of all suits?
(c)1f I and III are morning papers and
one morning paper
paper,how many people read at least 10 of socks kept in a cupboard. If a
plus an evening paper? 19. There are pair
randomly chooses 10 socks, what is the probability
(d) How many people do not read any newspapers? person
and that there will be no matching pairs
read only one morning paper
now many people
one evening paper? against a
20.Suppose that you are playing blackjack
what is the probability
dealer. In a freshly shuffled deck,
given in a study of group
a
14 is dealt a blackjack?
following data were
reference thatneither nor the
you
dealer

1000 subscribers to a certain magazine: In

312
job, marital status, and education, there graduates,pro- consists of 20 fam
were
42 21. A small community organization
525 college two children, 5
fessi
Onals, 470 married persons, married college gradu- ilies, of which 4
have one child, 8 have
profes and 1 has five
onal college graduates,
147
have three children, 2 have four children,
and 25 married professional
0 married professionals,the in the children.
college graduates. Showthat numbers reported (a) If one of these
families is chosen at random, what is the
study must be incorrect. set probability it has
i children, i =
1,2,3,4,5?
Hint: Let M, W, respectively, the randomly chosen, what is the
and G denote, of the children is
of pr et M, (b) If one
and college graduac child comes from a family havir
OIessionals, married persons, is chosen at random, probability that
une that one of the 1000 persons the given
numbers
dren, i = 1,2,3,4, 5?
and se Proposition
on 4.4 to show that if
ate correct. then P(M UWUG)> 1.
22.Consider the following technique for shufiinga deck each ot the balls will be (a) of the same color? (b) of differ
ofn cards: For any initial ordering of the cards, gothrough ent colors? Repeat under the assumption that whenev
ra
the deck one card at a time and at each card, flip
a fair coin. ball is selected, its color is noted and it is then
I fthe coin comes up heads, then leave the card where it is, the urn before the next selection. This is replaced
know in
if the coin comes up tails, then move that card to the end pling with replacement. Sam-

flipped times, say

of the deck. After the coin has been
n
thatone round has been completed. For instance, it n = 4 49. An urn contains n white and m black balls. wheren , and

then if the successive m are positive numbers.

and the initial ordering is 1, 2, 3, 4,
fips result in the outcome h, t, t, h, then the ordering at
that all possible
the end ofthe round is 1,4,2, 3. Assuming
outcomes of the sequence of n coin fiips are equany uk
t is thee nrohability that the ordering after one round s
the same as the initial ordering?
23. 10 balls that are marked 1, 2, 3..10 are kept randomly
in a box. Four balls are picked from the box and are given
to four persons A, B, C and D. What is the probability that
B gets the ball with the largest value (among A, B, C, D)
and A gets the ball with the smallest value (among A, B,
C.D)?
24. A box contains 100 balls, numbered from 1 to 100. If
three balls are selected at random and with replacement
from the box, what is the probability that the sum of the
three numbers on the balls selected from the box will be
odd? If the balls were taken without replacement, will the
probabilities change?
25. A pair of dice is rolled until a sum of either 5
or 7
appears. Find the probability that a 5 occurs first.
Hint: Let En denote the event that a 5 occurs on the zth
roll and no 5or 7 occurs on te
the first n -
(a) If two balls are randomly withdrawn, what is the nroh
ability that they are the same color?
b) If a ball is randomly withdrawn and then replaced
before the second one is drawn, what is the probability
that
the withdrawn balls are the same color?
(c) Show that the probability in part (b) is always larger
than the one in part (a).
30. The chess clubs of two schools consist of, respectively,
8 and 9 players. Four members from each club are ran-
domly chosen to participate in a contest between the two
schools. The chosen players from one team are then ran-
domly paired with those from the other team, and each
pairing plays a game of chess. Suppose that Rebecca and
her sister Elise are on the chess clubs at different schools
What is the probability that
(a) Rebecca and Elise will be paired?
(b) Rebecca and Elise will be chosen to represent their
schools but will not play each other?
e t n e r Kebecca or Eise will be chosen to represent her
School?

1 rolls. Compute
PE,) and argue that PE,) is the desired probability. 31. A 3-person basketball team consists of
n=l
ward, and a center.
a
guard, a for-

26. The game of craps is

played as follows: A player rolls (a) I1 a person is chosen at random from each of three dif
two dice. If the sum of the dice is either a
2, 3, or 12, the Ierent such teams, what is the probability of selecting a
player loses; if the sum is either a 7 or an 11, the player complete team?
wins. If the outcome is anything else, the
player continues (b) What is the probability that all 3
to roll the dice until she rolls either the initial outcome ora the same players selected play
7. If the 7 comes first, the position?
player loses, whereas if the initial
outcome reoccurs before the 7 32. A group of
appears, the player wins. individuals containing b boys and g girls
Compute the probability of a player winning at craps. is lined up in random
Hint: Let E; denote the event that the order; that is, each of the (b +
initial outcome is Permutations is assumed to be equally likely. What is 8) the
i and the
player wins. The desired probability
is
12
probability
P(E). is a girl?
that the person in the ith
position, sisb+8
1
To compute P(E), define the events i=2

that the initial sum is i and the Ein to be the event

player wins on the nth roll. 33. A forest contains 20
elk, of which 5 are
Argue that P(E) =
P(Ein). tagged, and then released. A certain time later,captured,
4 of the
20 elk are
4 have been
captured. What is the probability that 2 of these
27. There three secretaries who work
are tagged? What assumptions
are you making!
for four
departments. If each of the four
departments has one 34. The second Earl of
report to be typed out, and the reports are at odds of 1000 to 1 Yarborough is reported to have bet
assigned to a secretary, what is the probabilityrandomly
that all
that a bridge hand of 13 cards would
contain at least one card that is
three secretaries are assigned at least one report? ten or higher. (By ten or
higher we mean that a card is either a ten,
king, or an ace.) Nowadays, we call a handjack,
a
28. An urn contains 5 red, 6 blue, and 8 a
a
queen,
green balls. If a set cards higher than 9 a that has no
of 3 balls is randomly selected, what is the Yarborough. What is the probability
probability that that a
randomly selected bridge hand is a Yarborough?
 will be (a) ot the same color? (b) of ds

a deck
each of the balls wheneC.
under the assumption that
Consider the following technique for shufling ent colors? Repeat
22. of the cards, go through color is noted and it is then renlaa
otn cards: For any timeordering
initial ball is selected, its
ata and at each card, flip a
fair coin.
the next selection.
This is known aas In
tnedeckonecard card where it is; the urn before sam-
the con comes up heads, then leave the pling with replacement.
T move that card
to the end
II the coin comes up tails, then
n times, say ls,
of the deck. After the coin has
been flipped
29. An urn contains n white and
m black balls, where n
where.
and
For instance, if n=4
one round has been completed.
numbers.
that successive m are positive
then if the
and the initial ordering is 1, 2, 3, 4, withdrawn, what is the
(a) If two balls are randomly color? prob
.

at
, h, then the ordering
flips result in the outcome h, t, Assuming that all possible ability that they are the
same

the end ofthe round is 1,4, 2,3. (b) If a ball is randomly withdrawn and then laced
outcomes of the sequence of n coin flips
are equally likely,
alter one rouna is before the second one is drawn, what is the probabilitv that t

what is the probability that the ordering color?

the withdrawn balls are the
same
the same as the initial ordering?
in part (b) is always aroe
2,3...10 are kept randomly (c) Show that the probability ger
23. 10 balls that are marked 1, from the box and are given than the one in part (a).
in a box. Four balls are picked
to four persons A, B, C and D.
What is the probability that schools consist of, respectivels.
A, B, C, D) 30. The chess clubs of two
B gets the ball with the largest value (among 8 and 9 players. Four
members from each club are
Tan-
smallest value (among A, B,
and A gets the ball with the domly chosen to participate in a contest between the two
C.D)? schools. The chosen players from one team are then Tan.
the other team, and
24. A box contains 100 balls, numbered from 1 to
100. If domly paired with those from each

three balls are selected at random and with replacement
from the box, what is the probability that the sum of the
three numbers on the balls selected from the box will be
odd? If the balls were taken without replacement, will the
probabilities change ?
25. A pair of dice is rolled until a sum of either 5 or 7
appears. Find the probability that a 5 occurs first.
Hint: Let E, denote the event that a 5 occurs on the nth
roll and no5 or 7 occurs on the first n - 1 rolls. Compute
pairing plays a game of chess. Suppose
that Rebecca nd
her sister Elise are on the chess clubs at different schools
What is the probability that
(a) Rebecca and Elise will be paired?
(b) Rebeca and Elise will be chosen to represent their
schools but will not play each other?
(c) either Rebecca or Elise will be chosen to represent her
school?

PE,) and argue that E PE,) is the desired probability.
n=1
26. The game of craps is played as follows: A player rolls
two dice. If the sum of the dice is either a 2, 3, or 12, the
player loses: if the sum is either a 7 or an 11, the player
wins. Ifthe outcome is anything else, the player continues (b) What is the probability that all3 players selected play
to roll the dice until she rolls either the initial outcome or a
7. If the 7 comes first, the player loses, whereas if the initial
Outcome reoccurs before the 7 appears, the player wins.
Compute the probability of a player winning at craps.
Hint: Let E, denote the event that the initial outcome is
31. A 3-person basketball team consists of a guard, a for-
ward, and a center.
(a) Ifa person is chosen at random from each of three dif-
ferent such teams, what is the probability of selecting a
complete team?
the same position?
32. A group of individuals containing b boys and g girls
islined up in random order; that is, each of the (b +8)
permutations is assumed to be equally ikely. What is the

i and the player wins. The desired probability is 12 probability that the person in the ith position, 1 sisb+8
P(E). is a girl?
i=2
To compute P(E;), define the events
Ein to be the event
that the initial sum is i and the 33. A forest contains 20
player wins on the nth roll. elk, of which 5 are capturea
Argue that P(E;) = PEin). tagged, and then released. A certain time later, 4 of the
20 elk are captured. What is the
n=T probability that 2 of these
4 have been
27. There are three secretaries who work for
tagged? What assumptions are you making
four
departments. If each of the four
departments has one 34. The second Earl of Yarborough is reported to have
bet
report to be typed out, and the reports are randomly at odds of 1000 to 1 that a bridge hand of 13 cards would
assigned to a secretary, what is the probability that all contain at least one card that is ten or higher. (By ten o
three secretaries are assigned at least higher we mean that a
one report? card is either a ten, a jack, a queel.
a king, or an ace.) Nowadays, we call a hand that has no
28. An urn contains 5 red, 6 blue, and 8 green balls. If a set cards
of 3 balls is randomly selected, what is the probability that that a higher than 9 a Yarborough. What is the probabl
randomly selected bridge hand is a Yarborough
 Probability 51
A First Course in

into a cell phone shop and door.

A robberbroke managed 45, A woman has n kevs, of which one will open i
35. phones from the counter. It there were 7 Apple (a) If she tries the keys at random, discarding those that
to steal
the
phones,6 Nokia phones and s
probability that
Samsung phones, find the do not work,whatistheprobabilitythatshe willopen
door on her kth try?
phones were of the same company (6) What if she does not discard previously tried keys?
all stolen
(a)all
phone were not stolen.
the samsung
(b) all
How many people have to be in a room in order that
of all
were
brands stolen.
(c) phones 40.
(d)
either
3 nokia phonesor 3 Apple phones were stolen. the probability that at least two of them celebrate their
Dirthday in the same month is at least? Assume that all
Two cards are drawn at random from a pack of 52 possible monthly outcomes are equally likely
36What
cards. W is the probability that either both are black or 47. If thereare 24 students in a classroom
both are Kings?
obtain, find tn
probability that at least three students share the same
7 An instructor gives her class a set of 10 problems with
birthday.
theinformation that the final exam will consist of a ran- 48. Given 20 people, what is the probabilitythat among
dom sclection of 5 of them. If a student has figured out the 12 months in the year, there are 4 months containing
ow to do 7 of the problems, what is the probability that exactly 2 birthdays and 4 containing exactly 3 birthdays?
how
answer correctly
49. A group of 6 men and 6 women is randomly divided
will
he or she
problems? into 2 groups of size 6 each. What is the probability that
(a) all 5
both groups will have the same number of men?
b) at least 4 of the problems?
50. A car is N cars in a row, not at
parked by Tom among
3 of which are red, in a drawer. What either end. On his return, he finds that exactly r of them
38. There are n socks,
when 2 of the socks are chosen ran- that both his
is the value of n if, are still occupied. What is the probability

domly, the probability that they are both red is ? neighboring spots are vacant?

at the three corners of an 51. Suppose that balls are randomly distributed into N
39. Three ants are sitting n
balls will fall
compartments. Find the probability that
m
equilateral triangle. Each ant starts to move randomly
What is the probability that into the first compartment. Assume that all N arrange-
alongan edge of the triangle. ments are equally likely.
other?
none of them collide with each
the
available in an internet 52. A of dice is rolled until either you obtain
pair
40. There are 3 computers were customers arrived (at same two numbers on
the dice or the difference of the
3
cafe. If on a particular day the probability that
k two numbers on the
dice is 1. Find the probability that you
what is roll two dice
non-overlapping times), roll two dice with equal numbers before you
used on that particular day?
computers (k =1,2, 3) were whose numbers difer by 1.

that 6 find the

is the probability in row,
41. If a die is rolled 4 times, what are arranged
a
53. If 4 married couples wife.
husband sits next to his
Comes up at least once?
probability that no
succession. Compute chosen at random from{1,2,. 10.
thrown n times in 54. Three
numbers are
42. Two dice are
least once. How that they are in A.P?
that double 6 appears at Find the probability
probability
at least
largeneedn be to make this probability game of tossing
play a
an
unbiased coin.
the coin
55. A and B and then B toss
randomly the coin o n c e Find
including A and B, tossing
are head.
A starts by either of them
obtain a
people, probability that
A and B This continues till first?
is the twice. obtain head
arrang n a line, what one to
that A is the
5u the probability
are next to each other?
were ran-
be if the people following game:
Player A chooses
0)What would the probability 56. Two players
play the
pictured in Figure
2.6, and then
domly arranged in a circle? o n e of
the three spinners
remaining two spinners.
Both
one of the
B chooses that lands on
are arranged plaver and the one

people, designated as A, B, C, D, E, 1s
order
Dlavers then
spinner,
spin theirdeclared the winner. Assuming that
Five that each possible is
order. Assuming the higher
number
of its 3 regions,
near to land in any
that
is equally likely
Cqually likely,what is the probability B? each spinner A or player
B? Explain your
between A and rather be player
would you
(a) there is exactly one person
between A and B? answer!

(b)there are exactly two people

between A and B?
(c) there are three people
 er broke into a cell
phone
shop and managed
15. A ohones her doopr.
4
steal
from the counter. If there
pho
were 7 Apple . A Woman has keys, of which one will open
n
those tnat
phones, 6 Nokia
to
phones and 5 Samsung phones, find keys at random, discarding
Nok
the a) lf she tries the the
probability that not
o work, what is the probability that she will open
n phones were of the same door her kth try?
on
( a )a l l s
company.
ones were not stolen. (b) What if she does not discard
(b)
all the samsung
1 brands were stolen.
previously tried keys
(c) p either 33 nokia
n phones or 3 Apple phones were stolen. 46. How many people have tobe in a room in order that
(d) that at least two of them celebrate their
tne probability
birthday in the same month is at least ? Assume that at
cards
are
Two cards are drawn at random from a
36. pack of 52 Possible monthly outcomes
cards. What is the probabil that either both are
black or
are equally likely.
both are Kings? 47. If there are 24
students in a classroom obtain, find the
probability that at least three students share the
same
37.Aninstructor gives her class a set of 10
with problems birthday.
the formation
that the hnal exam will
consist of a ran- 48. Given 20
celection of 5 of them. If a student has figured out the 12 monthspeople,
m
in the
what is the probability that
among
to o do 7 of the problems, what is the
year, there are 4 months containing
how
correctly
probability that exactly 2 birthdays and 4 containing exactly 3 birthdays?
or she Will
answer
he
49. A group of 6 men and 6
(a) all 5 problems? women is randomly divided
into 2 groups of size 6 each. What
the problems? is the probability that
(b) at least 4 of both groups will have the same
number of men?
38. There are n socks, 5 of which are red, in a drawer. What 30. A car is parked by Tom among N cars in a row, not at
is the value of n it, when 2 ot the socks are chosen ran- either end. On his return, he finds that
domly, the probability that they are both red is ? are still
exactlyrof them
occupied. What is the probability that both his
neighboring spots are vacant?
39. Three ants are sitting at the three corners of an
51.Suppose that n balls are randomly distributed into N
equilateral triangle. Each ant starts to move randomly
along an edge of the triangle. What is the probability that compartments. Find the probability that m balls will fall
into the first
none of them collide with each other? compartment. Assume that all N" arrange
ments are equally likely.

40. There are 3 computers were available in an internet 52. A

cafe. If on a particular day 3 customers arrived (at
pair
of dice is rolled until either
you obtain the
same two numbers on the dice or the difference of the
non-overlapping times), what is the probability that k two numbers on the dice is 1. Find the
computers(k = 1,2,3) were used on that particular day? roll two dice with equal numbers before
probability that you
you roll two dice
whose numbers differ by 1.
41. If a die is rolled 4 times, what is the probability that 6
comes up at least once? 53. If 4 married couples are arranged in a row, find the
probability that no husband sits next to his wife.
42. Tiwodice are thrown n times in succession. Compute
the probability that double 6 appears at least once. How 54. Three numbers are chosen at random from|1,2,, 10)
largeneed n be to make this probability at least? Find the probability that they are in A.P?

55. A and B play a game of tossing an unbiased coin.

(4) I1 N people, including A and B, are randomly
l duged in a line, what is the probability that A and B
are next to
each other?
(D) What would the probability be if the people were ran
domly arranged in a circle?
A starts by tossing the coin once and then B toss the coin
twice. This continues till either of them obtain a head. Find
the probability that A is the one to obtain head first?
players play the following game: Player A
56. Two
chooses

one of the three spinners pictured

in Figure 2.6, and then
44. Five people, designated as A, B, C, D, E, are arranged Both
player B chooses one of the remaining onespinners.
two
order 1s and the that lands on
near order. Assuming that each possible players then spin their spinner,
cually likely, what is the probability that the higher number is declared the winner. Assuming that
in of its 3 regions,
(a) there is exactly one person between A and B? each spinner is equally likely to land any
B? Explain your
between A and B?
would you rather be player A or player
here exactly
are two people answer!
B87
9there are three people between A and
 3.1. Two fair dice are rolled. What is the conditional prob- 3.3. We roll unbiased die and let A be the event that die
an

ability that at least one lands on 6 given that the dice land shows either 3 or 4. Also let B be the event that the even
on diferent numbers? number appears.
(a) Obtain P(A|B)
3.2. A bag contains blue and red balls. Two balls are (b) Are A and B independent?
urawnrandomly without replacement. The probability of
is the probability that at least one of a pairof
Selecting a red and then a blue ball is 0.4. The probability 3.4. Whatlands on 6, given that the sum of the dice is i,
OSelectinga red ball in the first draw is 0.5. What is the fair dice
prODability of drawing a blue ball, given that the first ball i 2,3,..., 12?
=

drawn was red?

 balls. If 4 balls
3.5. An urn contains 6 white and 9 black
are
without replacement, what is the
to be randomly selected
selected are white and the last 2
probability that the first 2
black?
a 6 Consider an urn containing 12 balls, of which 8 are
is to be drawn with replacement
white. A sample of size 4
is the conditional probabil-
(without replacement). What
first and third balls drawn will be
ity (in each case) that the drawn contains exactly 3 white
white given that the sample
balls?
children. What is
3.7. Theking comes from a family of 2
sister?
the probability that the other child is his
3.8. Considera deck of fifty two cards. We draw two cards
without replacement and let A be the event that first card
What
is ace and B be the event that both the cards are ace.
is the conditional probability of B given A4?
3.9. Consider 3 Urn A contains 2 white and 4 red
urns.
balls, urn B contains 8 white and 4 red balls, and urn C con-
tains 1 white and 3 red balls. If 1 ball is selected from each
urn, what is the probability that the ball chosen
from urn
A was white given that exactly 2 white balls were selected?
3.10. Three cards are randomly selected, without replace
ment, from an ordinary deck of 52 playing cards. Compute
the conditional probability that the first card selected is a
spade given that the second and third cards are spades.
3.11. Two cards are randomly chosen without replacement
from an ordinary deck of 52 cards. Let B be the event that
both cards are aces, let As be the event that the ace of
is chosen, and let A be the event that at least one
spades
ace is chosen. Find
(a) P(B|A,)
(b) PBIA)
3.12. A recent college graduate is planning to take the
first three actuarial examinations in the coming summer.
She will take the first actuarial exam in June. If she passes
that exam, then she will take the second exam in July, and
if she also passes that one, then she will take the third
exam in September. If she fails an exam, then she is not
allowed to take any others. The probability that she passes
the first exam is .9. If she passes the first exam, then the
conditional probability that she passes the second one is
8, and if she passes both the first and the second exams,
then the conditional probability that she passes the third
exam is.7.
(a) What is the probability that she passes all three exams?
(b) Given that she did not pass all three exams, what is the
conditional probability that she failed the second exam?
3.13. Suppose that an ordinary deck of 52 cards (which probability 4/5. And make a random guess with probability
contains 4 aces) is randomly divided into 4 hands of 13 1/5.Ifa particular question was found to be correct, what is
cards each. We are interested in determining p, the prob- the probability that he actually new the answer?
ability that each hand has an ace. Let E; be the event
that the ith hand has exactly one ace. Determine p =
P(E E2E3 E4) by using the multiplication rule.
3.14. Consider a deck of fifty two cards. We draw four
cards without replacement. What is the probability that all
are from different suits?
3.15. Suppose the frequency of the disease in a particular
population is 0.2. A laboratory test is highly accurate with
a 0.05 false positive probability and a false 0.1 negative
probability. If ones test is positive what is the probability
that he has the no disease?
3.16. Consider a deck of fifty two cards. We draw three
cards without replacement. Find the probability of
obtaining at least one ace if
(a) all the card are from different suits.
(b) all are from same suit.
3.17. Probability of 2 children to be twins is given as 2%
and probability of them being identical twins is 0.16%. If
both genders are equally likely and identical twins always
that
belong to the same gender, then find the probability
the children are identical twins given that they are both
twin boys?
3.18. A percent of the voters in a certain city
total of 46
classify themselves as Independents, whereas 30 percent
classify themselves as Liberals and 24 percent say that they
are Conservatives. In a recent local election, 35 percent
of the Independents, 62 percent of the Liberals, and 58
percent of the Conservatives voted. A voter is chosen at
random. Given that this person voted in the local election,
what is the probability that he or she is
(a) an Independent?
(b) a Liberal?
(c) a Conservative?
(d) What percent of voters participated in the local
election?
3.19. A lie detector catches 90% of lies, but it also has
the defect that it wrongly classify a truth as a lie with
probability 0.05, 100 persons are taken for testing this
detector of which half of them are told to tell a lie and the
other half the truth.
(a) If a person is randomly selected from the group and the
detector says he is telling the truth. What is the probability
that it is actually telling the truth?
b) If the machine claims he lied, what is the probability
that he indeed lied?
3.20. In a multiple choice examination with four optional
answers for each question, student knows the answer with