LESSON

21.1 Name Class Date

Probability and Set 21.1 Probability and Set Theory

Theory Essential Question: How are sets and their relationships used to calculate probabilities?

Resource

Common Core Math Standards Locker

The student is expected to: Explore Working with Sets

COMMON A set is a collection of distinct objects. Each object in a set is called an element of the set. A set
CORE S-CP.A.1 is often denoted by writing the elements in braces.
Describe events as subsets of a sample space (the set of outcomes) using The set with no elements is the empty set, denoted by ⌀ or { }.
characteristics ... of the outcomes, or as unions, intersections, or
The set of all elements under consideration is the universal set, denoted by U.
complements of other events (“or,”“and,”“not”).
Identifying the number of elements in a set is important for calculating probabilities.
Mathematical Practices
COMMON
CORE MP.6 Precision A Use set notation to identify each set described in the table and identify the number of
elements in each set.

Language Objective Number of

Set Set Notation Elements in
Explain to a partner how to find the probability of rolling a certain the Set
number on a number cube and how to find its complement.
⎧ ⎫
Set A is the set of prime A = ⎨2, 3, 5 , 7⎬ n(A) = 4

ENGAGE ⎩ ⎭
numbers less than 10.

Essential Question: How are sets and ⎧ ⎫

Set B is the set of even natural B=⎨ 2 , 4 , 6 , 8 ⎬ n(B) = 4
their relationships used to calculate numbers less than 10. ⎩ ⎭

probabilities?
© Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company

To calculate the probability of an event, you need to

Set C is the set of natural ⎧ ⎫
know the number of items in the set of outcomes numbers less than 10 that are C = ⎨4, 8 ⎬ n(C) = 2
⎩ ⎭
multiples of 4.
for that event, as well as the number of items in the
set of all possible outcomes. The theoretical

( U )=9
probability of the event is the ratio of the two ⎧ ⎫
The universal set is all natural
U = ⎨1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9⎬
numbers. numbers less than 10. ⎩ ⎭ n

PREVIEW: LESSON
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Lesson 1

1083

10:09 AM
07/11/14
Module 21

1L1 1083
01_U8M2
ESE3858
GE_MNL

1083 Lesson 21.1

 The following table identifies terms used to describe relationships among sets. Use sets A, B,
C, and U from the previous table. You will supply the missing Venn diagrams in the Example
column, including the referenced elements of the sets, as you complete steps B–I following. EXPLORE
Term Notation Venn Diagram Example
Set C is a subset of C⊂B
U 1,3,5,7,9 Working with Sets
set B if every element
B
of C is also an element C 4,8 2,6
of B. INTEGRATE TECHNOLOGY
Students have the option of doing the Explore activity
A⋂B U 1,9 either in the book or online.
The intersection of sets
A and B is the set of all A B 3,5,7 2 4,6,8
elements that are in
both A and B.
A ⋂ B is the double-shaded region.
INTEGRATE MATHEMATICAL
A⋃B
The union of sets A
and B is the set of all
U 1,9 PRACTICES
A B
elements that are in
A or B.
3,5,7 2 4,6,8 Focus on Modeling
A ⋃ B is the entire shaded region. MP.4 Discuss how the Venn diagrams provide
A or ∼A
C pictures of set relationships to help students
The complement of U
1,4,6,8,9 understand the terminology. Encourage students to
set A is the set of all A
elements in the universal
2,3,5,7 practice drawing Venn diagrams to use when
set U that are not in A.
investigating set theory. For example, discuss how a
A c is the shaded region.
Venn diagram can make it easier to identify the
complement of an intersection.
B Since C is a subset of B, every element of set C, which consists of the
numbers 4 and 8 , is located not only in oval C, but also within oval B.
Set B includes the elements of C as well as the additional elements 2 and 6 ,
which are located in oval B outside of oval C. The universal set includes the
elements of sets B and C as well as the additional elements 1 , 3 , 5 , 7 ,
AVOID COMMON ERRORS
and 9 , which are located in region U outside of ovals B and C.
© Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company
Students may assume that a set that contains only 0 is
the same as the empty set. Contrast the empty set, { },
C In the first row of the table, draw the corresponding Venn diagram that includes the
elements of B, C, and U. See first row of table. with the set that contains only 0, {0}.

D To determine the intersection of A and B, first define the elements of set A and set B
separately, then identify all the elements found in both sets A and B.
QUESTIONING STRATEGIES
⎧ ⎫
A=⎨ 2 ⎬ What word corresponds to the intersection of
⎩ , 3 , 5 , 7 ⎭
two sets? Is it union? Explain. And means the
⎧ ⎫
B=⎨ 2 ⎬
, 4 , 6 , 8 ⎭
elements are in both sets, which corresponds to the
⎩
intersection. Or means the elements can be in either
⎧ ⎫
A⋂B=⎨ 2 ⎬ set, which corresponds to the union.
⎩ ⎭
How is an intersection different from a
Module 21 1084 Lesson 1
subset? The intersection consists of the
elements two sets have in common, while all of the
PROFESSIONAL DEVELOPMENT
elements of a subset lie within the set of which it is a
GE_MNLESE385801_U8M21L1 1084 03/09/14 8:22 PM

Math Background subset.

A German mathematician, Georg Cantor (1845–1918), is considered to be the How do you know when sets overlap? Sets
father of set theory. Cantor discovered that the rational numbers are countable but will overlap when they have some elements
the real numbers are uncountable. in common.
Two French mathematicians, Blaise Pascal (1623–1662) and Pierre de Fermat
(1601–1665), are considered to be the founders of probability theory. The roots of
probability theory lie in the letters they exchanged analyzing games of chance.

Probability and Set Theory 1084

 E In the second row of the table, draw the Venn diagram for A ⋂ B that includes the elements

EXPLAIN 1 of A, B, and U and the double-shaded intersection region. See second row of table.

F To determine the union of sets A and B, identify all the elements found in either set A or set B
Calculating Theoretical Probabilities by combining all the elements of the two sets into the union set.
⎧ ⎫
A⋃B=⎨ 2 ⎬
INTEGRATE MATHEMATICAL ⎩ , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 ⎭
PRACTICES In the third row of the table, draw the Venn diagram for A ⋃ B that includes the elements of
G
Focus on Math Connections A, B, and U and the shaded union region. See third row of table.

MP.1 Discuss the set notation used to define H To determine the complement of set A, first identify the elements of set A and universal
theoretical probability. Connect the notation to a set U separately, then identify all the elements in the universal set that are not in set A.
word description of the probability ratio, such as, the ⎧ ⎫
A=⎨ 2 ⎬
, 3 , 5 , 7 ⎭
ratio of favorable outcomes in sample space to total ⎩

number of outcomes in sample space. ⎧ ⎫

U=⎨ 1 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 ⎬
⎩ , ⎭

⎧ ⎫
AVOID COMMON ERRORS AC = ⎨ 1
⎩
⎬
, 4 , 6 , 8 , 9 ⎭

Students may have difficulty identifying an event

I In the fourth row of the table, draw the Venn diagram for A c that includes the elements
based on a union or intersection. Suggest that of A and U and the shaded region that represents the complement of A. See fourth row of table.

students draw Venn diagrams to model the

Reflect
experiment. They can begin by defining each set and
then create the Venn diagram to show where the sets 1. Draw Conclusions Do sets always have an intersection that is not the empty set? Provide an
example to support your conclusion.
overlap. No. Using the example sets above, A ⋂ C = ⌀ because they do not have any elements
in common.
© Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company

Explain 1 Calculating Theoretical Probabilities

A probability experiment is an activity involving chance. Each repetition of the experiment
is called a trial and each possible result of the experiment is termed an outcome. A set of
outcomes is known as an event, and the set of all possible outcomes is called the sample space.

Probability measures how likely an event is to occur. An event that is impossible has a
probability of 0, while an event that is certain has a probability of 1. All other events have a
probability between 0 and 1. When all the outcomes of a probability experiment are equally
likely, the theoretical probability of an event A in the sample space S is given by
number of outcomes in the event n(A)
P(A) = ____ = _.
number of outcomes in the sample space n(S)

Module 21 1085 Lesson 1

COLLABORATIVE LEARNING
GE_MNLESE385801_U8M21L1 1085 03/09/14 8:22 PM

Small Group Activity

Ask each group to draw a spinner with 6 or 8 equal parts. Then ask them to use
letters, colors, or numbers to distinguish each section of the spinner. Have them
define two events based on the spinners. For example, if letters are used, the set of
vowels and the set of letters in the word math. Ask students to find the probability
of each event, their complements, their union, and their intersection. Have
students share their work. Review which events have a probability of 1, which have
a probability of 0, and why.

1085 Lesson 21.1

 Example 1 Calculate P(A), P(A ⋃ B), P(A ⋂ B), and P(A C) for each situation.
QUESTIONING STRATEGIES
 You roll a number cube. Event A is rolling a prime number. S
Event B is rolling an even number.
When you calculate the theoretical
⎧ ⎫ ⎧ ⎫
A B probabilities of events based on the same
S = ⎨1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6⎬, so n(S) = 6. A = ⎨2, 3, 5⎬, so n(A) = 3.
⎩ ⎭ ⎩ ⎭ probability experiment, can the term in the
n(A) 3 =_
1. denominator of the probability ratio change?
So, P(A) = _ = _
n(S) 6 2
Explain. No, the term in the denominator
⎧ ⎫ n(A ⋃ B) 5.
A ⋃ B = ⎨2, 3, 4, 5, 6⎬, so n(A ⋃ B) = 5. So, P(A ⋃ B) = _ = _ corresponds to the sample space, which does
⎩ ⎭ n(S) 6
⎧ ⎫ n(A ⋂ B) 1. not change.
A ⋂ B = ⎨2⎬, so n(A ⋂ B) = 1. So, P(A ⋂ B) = _ = _
⎩ ⎭ n(S) 6
⎧ ⎫ n(A )C If a set has no elements, what is the
A C = ⎨1, 4, 6⎬, so n(A C) = 3. So, P(A C) = _ = _ 3 =_
1.
⎩ ⎭ n(S) 6 2 probability of the event represented by
the set? Explain. 0, because there are no outcomes
 Your grocery basket contains one bag of each of the following items: in the sample space that correspond to the event
oranges, green apples, green grapes, green broccoli, white cauliflower,
orange carrots, and green spinach. You are getting ready to transfer If the elements of a set are the same as the
your items from your cart to the conveyer belt for check-out.
Event A is picking a bag containing a vegetable first. Event B is picking elements of the sample space, what is the
a bag containing a green food first. All bags have an equal chance of probability of the event represented by the set?
being picked first.
Order of objects in sets may vary.
Explain. 1, because the number of elements in the
⎧ ⎫ set is the same as the number of elements in the
S = ⎨orange, apple, grape, broccoli, cauliflower, carrot, spinach⎬, so n(S) = 7 .
⎩ ⎭

⎧ ⎫
A 4 ( ) sample space

© Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company • Image Credits: ©Ted

n
A = ⎨broccoli, cauliflower, carrot , spinach ⎬, so n(A) = 4 . So P(A) = _ = _.
⎩ ⎭
n
S 7 ( )
⎧ apple , grape⎬⎫, so n(A ⋃ B) = 6 .
A ⋃ B = ⎨broccoli, cauliflower , carrot , spinach ,
⎩ ⎭

n A ∪ B
P(A ⋃ B) = __ = _
(
6 )
n (S) 7
⎧ ⎫
Morrison/Bon Appetit/Alamy

A ⋂ B = ⎨ broccoli , spinach ⎬, so n(A ⋂ B) = 2

⎩ ⎭

n A ∩ B
P(A ⋂ B) = __ = _
(2 )
n ( )
S 7

n ( A )
P( A ) = _ = _
c
3

n ( S )
c

Module 21 1086 Lesson 1

DIFFERENTIATE INSTRUCTION
GE_MNLESE385801_U8M21L1.indd 1086 9/2/14 3:43 PM

Manipulatives
Encourage students to design their own experiments to illustrate what they have
learned about probability, such as calculating the complement of rolling a number
with a number cube and then attempting to conform the calculation
experimentally. Invite students to demonstrate their experiments before the class.

Probability and Set Theory 1086

 Reflect

EXPLAIN 2 2. Discussion In Example 1B, which is greater, P(A ⋃ B) or P(A ⋂ B)? Do you think this result is true
in general? Explain.
Since P(A ∪ B) = _ 6
is greater than P(A ∩ B) = _
2
, the union is more likely than the
Using the Complement of an Event 7 7
intersection. Yes, this is generally true since the union includes all the elements from both
events, whereas the intersection contains only elements present in both sets. However, if
AVOID COMMON ERRORS A = B, then the probability of the union and intersection will be the same.
Students may have difficulty understanding when to
Your Turn
use the complement to find a probability. Point out
The numbers 1 through 30 are written on slips of paper that are then placed in a hat.
that students may be able to find the probability Students draw a slip to determine the order in which they will give an oral report.
directly but that the complement may provide a Event A is being one of the first 10 students to give their report. Event B is picking a
multiple of 6. If you pick first, calculate each of the indicated probabilities.
shortcut. Continue to remind students to create Venn
diagrams to help them recognize relationships 3. P(A)
n(A)
between sets. P(A) = ____ = __
10
=_
1
n(S)
30 3

4. P(A ∪ B)
(A ∪ B)
= __
⎧ ⎫ ______
n
A ∪ B = ⎨1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 12, 18, 24, 30⎬⎭; P(A ∪ B) = 14
QUESTIONING STRATEGIES 5. P(A ∩ B)
⎩ n(S) 30

(A ∩ B)
= __
Why are there different equations that relate ⎧ ⎫ ______
n
A ∩ B = ⎨6⎬⎭; P(A ∩ B) = 1
⎩ n(S) 30
the probability of an event and its
6. P(A c)
complement? The three equations state the same n(A )
= __ =_
⎧ ⎫ ____ c
A c = ⎨11, 12,…, 30⎬⎭; P(A c) = 20 2
relationship in different ways. ⎩ n(S) 30 3

Explain 2 Using the Complement of an Event

You may have noticed in the previous examples that the probability of an event occurring and
© Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company

the probability of the event not occurring (i.e., the probability of the complement of the event)
have a sum of 1. This relationship can be useful when it is more convenient to calculate the
probability of the complement of an event than it is to calculate the probability of the event.

Probabilities of an Event and Its Complement

The sum of the probability of an event and the
P(A) + P(A c) = 1
probability of its complement is 1.

The probability of an event is 1 minus the

P(A) = 1 - P(A c)
probability of its complement.

The probability of the complement of an event

P(A c) = 1 - P(A)
is 1 minus the probability of the event.

Module 21 1087 Lesson 1

LANGUAGE SUPPORT
GE_MNLESE385801_U8M21L1.indd 1087 9/2/14 3:43 PM

Connect Vocabulary
Have students create a set of cards with diagrams to help them become familiar
with the vocabulary introduced in this lesson. Help students connect the
vocabulary to the notation used to represent a set, an element, the universal set, a
subset, union, intersection, and complement. Have students use different colors to
highlight and distinguish each relationship.

1087 Lesson 21.1

 Example 2 Use the complement to calculate the indicated probabilities.
Blue Number Cube
 You roll a blue number cube and a white number cube at the
1 2 3 4 5 6

White Number Cube

same time. What is the probability that you do not roll doubles?
1 1, 1 1, 2 1, 3 1, 4 1, 5 1, 6
Step 1 Define the events. Let A be that you do not roll 2 2, 1 2, 2 2, 3 2, 4 2, 5 2, 6
doubles and A c that you do roll doubles. 3 3, 1 3, 2 3, 3 3, 4 3, 5 3, 6
4 4, 1 4, 2 4, 3 4, 4 4, 5 4, 6
Step 2 Make a diagram. A two-way table is one helpful
way to identify all the possible outcomes in the 5 5, 1 5, 2 5, 3 5, 4 5, 5 5, 6
sample space. 6 6, 1 6, 2 6, 3 6, 4 6, 5 6, 6

Step 3 Determine P(A ). Since there are fewer outcomes for rolling doubles, it is more
c

convenient to determine the probability of rolling doubles, which is P(A c). To determine
n(A c), draw a loop around the outcomes in the table that correspond to A c and then
calculate P(A c).
n(A c) 6 =_ 1
P(A c) = _ = _
n(S) 36 6

Step 4 Determine P(A). Use the relationship between the probability of an event and its
complement to determine P(A).
5
1 =_
P(A) = 1 - P(A c) = 1 - _
6 6

So, the probability of not rolling doubles is __56 .

 One pile of cards contains the numbers 2 through 6 in red hearts. A second pile of cards
contains the numbers 4 through 8 in black spades. Each pile of cards has been randomly
shuffled. If one card from each pile is chosen at the same time, what is the probability that
the sum will be less than 12?

Step 1 Define the events. Let A be the event that the sum is less than 12 and A c be the
event that the sum is not less than 12 .
Red Hearts
Step 2 Make a diagram. Complete the table to show all the
2 3 4 5 6
outcomes in the sample space.
© Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company
4 4+2 4+3 4+4 4+5 4+6
Step 3 Determine P(A c). Circle the outcomes in the table that
Black Spades

5 5+2 5+3 5+4 5+5 5+6

correspond to A c, then determine P(A c). 6 6+2 6+3 6+4 6+5 6+6
⎛ ⎞ 7 7+2 7+3 7+4 7+5 7+6
n ⎜ Ac ⎟ 6
⎝ ⎠ 8 8+2 8+3 8+4 8+5 8+6
P(A c) = _ = _
⎛ ⎞
n ⎜ S ⎟ 25
⎝ ⎠

Module 21 1088 Lesson 1

GE_MNLESE385801_U8M21L1 1088 03/09/14 8:22 PM

Probability and Set Theory 1088

 Step 4 Determine P(A). Use the relationship between the probability of an event and its
complement to determine P(A c).
ELABORATE
( A )=
6 19
P(A) = 1 - P c
1 -_=_
25 25
AVOID COMMON ERRORS 19
So, the probability that the sum of the two cards is less than 12 is _.
Students may have trouble identifying some 25
outcomes associated with an event. Encourage Reflect
students to carefully identify all outcomes by using
7. Describe a different way to calculate the probability that the sum of the two cards will be less than 12.
tables, lists, or diagrams. They can circle the Use the table to count the number of outcomes in event A instead of A c, which is 19, then
outcomes of interest (often called the favorable divide that by the total number of outcomes to get __
19
25
.
outcomes) in the sample space.
Your Turn

One bag of marbles contains two red, one yellow, one green, and one blue marble.
QUESTIONING STRATEGIES Another bag contains one marble of each of the same four colors. One marble from
each bag is chosen at the same time. Use the complement to calculate the indicated
How does listing the elements in a set help you probabilities.
find the probability of an event associated 8. Probability of selecting two different colors A c is selecting the same color: (R 1, R), (R 2, R), (Y, Y),
with the set? The probability is based on the (G, G), (B, B); P(A c) = __
5
20
=_
1
4
, so P(A) = 1 - _
1
4
=_
3
4
.
number of elements in the set, so you can just count 9. Probability of not selecting a yellow marble A c is selecting at least one yellow marble: (Y, R), (Y, Y),
the elements for the numerator of the probability (Y, G), (Y, B), (R 1, Y), (R 2, Y), (G, Y), (B, Y); P(A c) = __
8
20
=_
2
5
, so P(A) = 1 - _
2
5
=_
3
5
.
ratio.
Elaborate
10. Can a subset of A contain elements of A C? Why or why not?
SUMMARIZE THE LESSON No. The elements of a subset are contained completely within the parent set A, whereas

none of the elements of the complement of a set A are in set A by definition, and thus they
How can you use set theory to help you
© Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company

calculate theoretical probabilities? You can cannot be in a subset of A.

use the number of elements in a set to define 11. For any set A, what does A ∩ Ø equal? What does A ⋃ Ø equal? Explain.
theoretical probability: the theoretical probability The intersection of set A and the empty set is the empty set, A ∩ Ø = Ø, since the two

that an event A will occur is given by P(A) = ___,

n(A)
sets do not have any elements in common. The union of set A and the empty set is set A,
n(S)
where S is the sample space. A ∪ Ø = A, since the elements of the union are the elements in set A or the empty set.

12. Essential Question Check-In How do the terms set, element, and universal set correlate to the terms
used to calculate theoretical probability?
Possible answer: To calculate probability, you need to know the number of possible
outcomes in the sample space, which is the number of elements in the universal set.
You also need to know the number of possible outcomes in the defined event, which
is the number of elements in the defined set.

Module 21 1089 Lesson 1

GE_MNLESE385801_U8M21L1 1089 03/09/14 8:22 PM

1089 Lesson 21.1

 Evaluate: Homework and Practice EVALUATE
• Online Homework
Set A is the set of factors of 12, set B is the set of even natural • Hints and Help
numbers less than 13, set C is the set of odd natural numbers less than • Extra Practice
13, and set D is the set of even natural numbers less than 7. The universal
set for these questions is the set of natural numbers less than 13.
⎧ ⎫ ⎧ ⎫
So, A = ⎨1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 12⎬, B = ⎨2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12⎬,
⎩ ⎭ ⎩ ⎭
⎧ ⎫ ⎧ ⎫
C = ⎨1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11⎬, D = ⎨2, 4, 6⎬, and
⎩ ⎭ ⎩ ⎭
⎧ ⎫
U = ⎨1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12⎬. Answer each question. ASSIGNMENT GUIDE
⎩ ⎭
1. Is D ⊂ A? Explain why or why not. 2. Is B ⊂ A? Explain why or why not. Concepts and Skills Practice
Yes, because every element of D is also No, because there is at least one element of
Explore Exercises 1–8
an element of A. B that is not an element of A. For example,
8 is an element of B that is not an element Working with Sets
of A.
Example 1 Exercises 9–14,
3. What is A ⋂ B ? 4. What is A ⋂ C ? Calculating Theoretical Probabilities 22, 26, 29
⎧ ⎫ ⎧ ⎫
⎨2, 4, 6, 12⎬ ⎨1, 3⎬
⎩ ⎭ ⎩ ⎭ Example 2 Exercises 15–21,
5. What is A ⋃ B ? 6. What is A ⋃ C ? Using the Complement of an Event 23–25, 27–28
⎧ ⎫ ⎧ ⎫
⎨1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12⎬ ⎨1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 12⎬
⎩ ⎭ ⎩ ⎭
7. What is A C? 8. What is B C?
⎧ ⎫ ⎧ ⎫
⎨5, 7, 9, 10, 11⎬ ⎨1, 3, 5, 7, 9, 11⎬
⎩ ⎭ ⎩ ⎭ COMMUNICATING MATH
You have a set of 10 cards numbered 1 to 10. You choose a card Discuss the importance of understanding the sample
at random. Event A is choosing a number less than 7. Event B is
choosing an odd number. Calculate the probability.
space. Encourage students to always list the members
9. P(A) 10. P(B) of the sample space before they find a probability.
⎧ ⎫ ⎧ ⎫
The sample space S = ⎨⎩1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10⎬⎭; The sample space S = ⎨⎩1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10⎬⎭; Discuss why this can help avoid errors, such as
⎧ ⎫ ⎧ ⎫
© Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company
A = ⎨⎩1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6⎬⎭ B = ⎩⎨1, 3, 5, 7, 9⎬⎭ finding the probability of rolling a 2 with a number
P(A) =
n(A)
_ _ _ =
6
=
3 P(B) =
n(B)
_ _ _
=
5
=
1 cube as __15 .
n(S) 10 5 n(S) 10 2
11. P (A ∪ B) 12. P (A ∩ B)
⎧ ⎫
The sample space S = ⎨⎩1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10⎬⎭; The sample space S = ⎧⎨1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10⎫⎬;
⎧ ⎫ ⎧ ⎫
⎩ ⎭ INTEGRATE MATHEMATICAL
A ∪ B = ⎨⎩1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9⎬⎭ A ∩ B = ⎨⎩1, 3, 5⎬⎭ PRACTICES
n(A ∪ B)
_ _ _ n(A ∩ B)
P(A ∪ B) = =
8
=
4
P (A ∩ B ) = _ _ =
3
Focus on Modeling
n(S) 10 5 n(S) 10
13. P(A C) 14. P(B C) MP.4 Discuss when a Venn diagram might be
⎧ ⎫ ⎧ ⎫
The sample space S = ⎨⎩1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10⎬⎭; The sample space S = ⎨⎩1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10⎬⎭;
useful in solving a probability problem, and when
⎧ ⎫ ⎧ ⎫
A C = ⎨⎩7, 8, 9, 10⎬⎭ B C = ⎨⎩2, 4, 6, 8, 10⎬⎭ another method might be easier.
n (A )
_ _ _
C
n(B )
_ _ _
C
P(A C) = P(B C) =
4 5
= = 2 = = 1
n(S) 10 5 n(S) 10 2

Module 21 1090 Lesson 1

COMMON
Exercise
GE_MNLESE385801_U8M21L1.indd 1090
Depth of Knowledge (D.O.K.) CORE Mathematical Practices 9/2/14 3:43 PM

1–8 1 Recal MP.4 Modeling

9–14 1 Recal MP.2 Reasoning
15–20 2 Skills/Concepts MP.2 Reasoning
21 3 Strategic Thinking MP.6 Precision
22 3 Strategic Thinking MP.4 Modeling
23–26 3 Strategic Thinking MP.3 Logic
27 3 Strategic Thinking MP.3 Logic

Probability and Set Theory 1090

 Use the complement of the event to find the probability.
INTEGRATE MATHEMATICAL
PRACTICES 15. You roll a 6-sided number cube. What is the probability that you do not roll a 2?
_1
The probability of rolling a 2, P(2), is .
Focus on Math Connections 6
_ _
1 5
The probability of not rolling a 2 is 1 - P(2) = 1 - = .
MP.1 Review the connection between likelihood 6
16. You choose a card at random from a standard deck of cards. What
6

and probability with students. Discuss how this can is the probability that you do not choose a red king?
be useful when solving problems. When students The probability of drawing a red
calculate the probability of an event, be sure they king, P(red king), is
2
=_ _ 1
.
52 26
understand what this means in the context of the The probability of not drawing a red king
original problem. For example, students should is 1 - P(red king) = 1 - _ _
1
=
25
.
26 26
recognize that an event with a probability of 0.9 is 17. You spin the spinner shown. The spinner is divided into 12 equal sectors.
very likely to occur, while an event with a probability What is the probability of not spinning a 2?

of 0.1 is unlikely to occur.

12 1 2
11 3
The probability of spinning a 2, P(2), is _
1
.
AVOID COMMON ERRORS 10 4 12
The probability of not spinning a 2 is 1 - P(2) = 1 - _ _
1
=
11
.
9 5 12 12
Students may not consider the sample space when 8 6
7
finding probabilities. Suggest that they summarize
the probability ratio using words before they compute
18. A bag contains 2 red, 5 blue, and 3 green balls. A ball is chosen at random.
the probability. What is the probability of not choosing a red ball?
© Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company • Image Credits: ©Oleg

The probability of choosing a red ball, P(red ball), is _ _ 2

= .
1
10 5
The probability of not choosing a red ball is 1 - P(red ball) = 1 - = . _ _
1 4
5 5
19. Cards numbered 1–12 are placed in a bag. A card is chosen at random. What is the
probability of not choosing a number less than 5?
The probability of choosing a number less than 5, P(less than 5), is _ _
4 1
= .
12 3
The probability of not choosing a number less than 5 is 1 - P(less than 5) = 1 - = . _ _
1 2
3 3
20. Slips of paper numbered 1–20 are folded and placed into a hat, and then a slip of
paper is drawn at random. What is the probability the slip drawn has a number which
Golovnev/Shutterstock

is not a multiple of 4 or 5?
Multiples of 4 up to 20: 4, 8, 16, 20
Multiples of 5 up to 20: 5, 10, 15, 20
⎧ ⎫
The set of multiples of 4 or 5 is ⎨⎩4, 5, 8, 10, 15, 16, 20⎬⎭.
P(multiple of 4 or 5) =
7 _
20
The probability of not selecting a card that is a multiple of 4 or 5 is
1 - P(multiple of 4 or 5) = 1 - _ _
7
=
13
.
20 20

Module 21 1091 Lesson 1

COMMON
GE_MNLESE385801_U8M21L1.indd 1091
Exercise Depth of Knowledge (D.O.K.) CORE Mathematical Practices 2/26/16 11:06 PM

28 3 Strategic Thinking MP.3 Logic

29 3 Strategic Thinking MP.3 Logic

1091 Lesson 21.1

 21. You are going to roll two number cubes, a white number cube and a red
number cube, and find the sum of the two numbers that come up. VISUAL CUES
a. What is the probability that the sum will be 6? When students create Venn diagrams to model a
There are 36 possible outcomes. There are 5 ways to get a sum
sample space and sets, caution them to be sure that
of 6, where the first addend is from the white cube and the second an element is not used more than once on the
addend is from the red cube: 5 + 1, 4 + 2, 3 + 3, 2 + 4, and 1 + 5. diagram. For example, have students check that a
So the probability of getting a sum of 6, P(6), is
5
. _ number does not appear both in Set A and in its
36
b. What is the probability that the sum will not be 6? intersection with Set B.
The probability that the sum will not be 6 is P(not 6) = 1 - P(6) = 1 - __
5
36
= __
31
36
.

22. You have cards with the letters A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, I, J, K, L, M, N, O, P. Event U is

choosing the cards A, B, C or D. Event V is choosing a vowel. Event W is choosing a
letter in the word “APPLE”. Find P(U ⋂ V ⋂ W).

U ⋂ V ⋂ W = ⎨A⎬⎭ ; P(U ∩ V ∩ W) = __
⎧ ⎫ 1
⎩ 16

A standard deck of cards has 13 cards (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10,

jack, queen, king, ace) in each of 4 suits (hearts, clubs, diamonds,
spades). The hearts and diamonds cards are red. The clubs and
spades cards are black. Answer each question.

23. You choose a card from a standard deck of cards at random. What is the probability
that you do not choose an ace? Explain.

© Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company • Image Credits: ©Sung-Il

__
12
; there are 4 aces in the 52-card deck, so P(ace) = __
4
= __
1
. This means
13 52 13
P(not ace) = 1 - = .__
1 __
12
13 13

24. You choose a card from a standard deck of cards at random. What is the probability
that you do not choose a club? Explain.

_3; there are 13 clubs in the 52-card deck, so P(club) = __

13
=_
1
. This means
4 52 4
P(not club) = 1 - _ = _.
1
4
3
4

25. You choose a card from a standard deck of cards at random. Event A is choosing a
red card. Event B is choosing an even number. Event C is choosing a black card. Find
P(A ∩ B ∩ C). Explain.
Kim/Corbis

A ∩ B ∩ C = Ø because you can never draw a card that is both red and black.
Therefore, P(A ∩ B ∩ C) = 0.

Module 21 1092 Lesson 1

GE_MNLESE385801_U8M21L1 1092 03/09/14 8:22 PM

Probability and Set Theory 1092

 26. You are selecting a card at random from a standard deck of cards. Match each event
JOURNAL with the correct probability. Indicate a match by writing the letter of the event on the
line in front of the corresponding probability.
Have students write and solve their own probability B _1
A. Picking a card that is both red and a heart.
problems. Remind students to use set notation in A
52
1
B. Picking a card that is both a heart and an ace. _
their solutions to the problems. C
4
51
C. Picking a card that is not both a heart and an ace. _
52

n(red ∩ heart)
P(red ∩ heart) = __________ = __ 13
=_
1
n(deck) 52 4
(heart ∩ ace) __
__________
n
P(heart ∩ ace) = 1
= 52
n(deck)
P(not (heart ∩ ace)) = 1 - P(heart ∩ ace) = 1 - __
1
52
= __
51
52
; the only card
that is both a heart and an ace is the ace of hearts, so there are 51 cards in
the event not (heart ∩ ace).

H.O.T. Focus on Higher Order Thinking

27. Critique Reasoning A bag contains white tiles, black tiles, and gray tiles. Someone
is going to choose a tile at random. P(W), the probability of choosing a white tile,
is __14 . A student claims that the probability of choosing a black tile, P(B), is __34 since
P(B) = 1 - P(W) = 1 - __14 = __34 . Do you agree? Explain.

No; choosing a black tile is not the complement of choosing a

white tile since the bag also contains gray tiles. It is not possible to
calculate P(B) from the given information.

28. Communicate Mathematical Ideas A bag contains 5 red marbles and 10 blue
marbles. You are going to choose a marble at random. Event A is choosing a red
marble. Event B is choosing a blue marble. What is P(A ∩ B)? Explain.
0; A ∩ B = Ø since a marble cannot be both red and blue. So P(A ∩ B) = 0.
© Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company

29. Critical Thinking Jeffery states that for a sample space S where all outcomes are
equally likely, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 for any subset A of S. Create an argument that will justify
his statement or state a counterexample.
Assume A is a subset of S. Then 0 ≤ n(A) ≤ n(S). For example, if S has
10 elements, the number of elements of A is greater than or equal to 0 and less
than or equal to 10. No subset of S can have fewer than 0 elements or more
n(A)
___
than 10 elements. So 0 ≤ ≤ 1. When all the outcomes are equally likely,
n(S)
n(A)
P(A) = ___. Therefore 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1.
n(S)

Module 21 1093 Lesson 1

GE_MNLESE385801_U8M21L1.indd 1093 9/2/14 3:43 PM

1093 Lesson 21.1

 Lesson Performance Task INTEGRATE MATHEMATICAL
PRACTICES
For the sets you’ve worked with in this lesson, membership in a set is binary: Either
something belongs to the set or it doesn’t. For instance, 5 is an element of the set of odd
Focus on Reasoning
numbers, but 6 isn’t. MP.2 Call attention to the point in the Lesson
In 1965, Lofti Zadeh developed the idea of “fuzzy” sets to deal with sets for which Performance Task graph where the green medium-
membership is not binary. He defined a degree of membership that can vary from 0 to 1.
For instance, a membership function mL(w) for the set L of large dogs where the degree of sized dog line and the blue big-dog line intersect. Ask
membership m is determined by the weight w of a dog might be defined as follows: students to give as much information as they can
• A dog is a full member of the set L if it weighs 80 pounds or more. This can be about that point. Sample answer: The point
written as mL(w) = 1 for w ≥ 80.
represents a weight of around 100 pounds and a
• A dog is not a member of the set L if it weighs 60 pounds or less. This can be
written as mL(w) = 0 for w ≤ 60. degree of membership of around 0.3. The point
• A dog is a partial member of the set L if it weighs between 60 and 80 pounds. represents the highest degree of membership that a
This can be written as 0 < mL(w) < 1 for 60 < w < 80. dog of around 100 pounds can obtain
Small Dogs Medium-Sized Large Dogs
The “large dogs” portion of the graph shown displays the
m
Degree of Membership Dogs simultaneously in both the medium-sized and
membership criteria listed above. Note that the graph shows 1
only values of m(w) that are positive. big-weight categories.
1. Using the graph, give the approximate weights for which
a dog is considered a full member, a partial member, and
not a member of the set S of small dogs.
w
INTEGRATE MATHEMATICAL
0 pounds to 20 pounds; between 20 pounds and 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 PRACTICES
30 pounds; more than 30 pounds
Weight (lb)
Focus on Critical Thinking
2. The union of two “fuzzy” sets A and B is given by the membership rule
mA∪B(x) = maximum(mA(x), mB(x)). So, for a dog of a given size, the degree of its MP.3 Arf has a small-dog degree of membership of
membership in the set of small or medium-sized dogs (S ∪ M) is the greater of its x and a medium-sized dog degree of membership of
degree of membership in the set of small dogs and its degree of membership in the set
of medium-sized dogs. y. Is x > y, x < y, or does the relationship between x
© Houghton Mifflin Harcourt Publishing Company
The intersection of A and B is given by the membership rule and y depend on Arf ’s weight? Explain. The
mA⋂B(x) = minimum(mA(x), mB(x)). So, for a dog of a given size, the degree of its
membership in the set of dogs that are both small and medium-sized (S ⋂ M) is
relationship depends on Arf’s weight. The red and
the lesser of its degree of membership in the set of small dogs and its degree of green graphs intersect at about 40 pounds. If Arf
membership in the set of medium-sized dogs.
weighs less than 40 pounds, x > y. If Arf weighs
Using the graph above and letting S be the set of small dogs, M be the set of
medium-sized dogs, and L be the set of large dogs, draw the graph of each set. more than 40 pounds, x < y. If Arf weighs 40
a. S∪ M b. M ⋂ L pounds, x = y.
m m
Degree of Membership

Degree of Membership

1 1

w w
0 0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Weight (lb) Weight (lb)

Module 21 1094 Lesson 1

EXTENSION ACTIVITY
GE_MNLESE385801_U8M21L1.indd 1094 2/26/16 11:06 PM

Have students draw graphs showing fuzzy sets ranging from cold to hot. (Three
sets could show cold, warm, and hot. Four sets could show cold, cool, warm, and
hot. However, leave the choice of adjectives and the number of sets to students.)
The vertical axis should record degrees of membership from 0 to 1. The horizontal
axis should show either Fahrenheit or Celsius temperatures. Encourage students
to be creative with their graphs, for example, by using colors to distinguish sets
Scoring Rubric
from one another. Students should write and answer at least three questions 2 points: Student correctly solves the problem and explains his/her reasoning.
involving unions, intersections, and complements of the sets they have graphed. 1 point: Student shows good understanding of the problem but does not fully
solve or explain his/her reasoning.
0 points: Student does not demonstrate understanding of the problem.

Probability and Set Theory 1094