Project Management: Solutions

Chapter 17 - Project Management
CHAPTER 17
PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Solutions
1. Use the network diagrams given in the text to determine both the critical path and the expected
project duration. The critical path and the expected project duration are indicated below with an
“*”. Expected duration for each path equals the sum of the activity times on the path.
a.
Path Expected Duration
1–2–4–7–10–12 4 + 9 + 5 + 2 + 3 = 23
1–2–5–8–10–12 4 + 8 + 7 + 2 + 3 = 24
1–3–6–9–11–12 10 + 6 + 4 + 5 + 6 = 31*
b. Path Expected Duration

1–2–4–6–8–9 5 + 18 + 3 + 4 + 9 + 2 = 41
1–2–5–6–8–9 5 + 18 + 10 + 4 + 9 + 2 = 48
1–2–5–7–8–9 5 + 18 + 10 + 11 + 9 + 2 = 55*
1–3–7–8–9 5 + 13 + 11 + 9 + 2 = 40
c. Path Expected Duration

1–2–5–12–16 10 + 14 + 13 + 7 = 44*
1–3–6–13–16 14 + 15 + 6 + 4 = 39
1–3–7–14–16 14 + 11 + 13 + 3 = 41
1–4–8–9–10–11–15–16 3 + 8 + 1 + 0 + 7 + 6 + 10 = 35
1–4–8–10–11–15–16 3 + 8 + 4 + 7 + 6 + 10 = 38
d.
17-1
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill
Education.

A-D 7 + 8 = 15
B-E 3+4=7
C-F-E 5 + 7 + 4 = 16
C-F-G 5 + 7 + 6 = 18*
17-2
Education.
2. a. Ch Sh
Lib Sel
Out Inst
Write
Ck
Sub
Note: The answers for this problem assume that Chris will prepare the paper on the new
computer, but will prepare the outline by hand.
b. 1. AOA diagram (All times are in hours)

Lib
Ch Out
2.0
0.6 0.4
Start Write Ck Sub End
Sh Inst 3.0 0.5 0.2
2.0 Sel 0.8
1.0
2. AON diagram (All times are in hours)
Ch 0.6 Lib 2.0 Out 0.4
Write 3.0 Ck 0.5 Sub 0.2
Start End
Sh 2.0 Sel 1.0 Inst 0.8
17-3
Education.
c. The paths and their expected duration times are given below. Expected duration for each path
equals the sum of the activity times on the path.
Expected
Path Duration
Ch-Lib-Out-Write-Ck-Sub 6.7 hours
Sh-Sel-Inst-Write-Ck-Sub 7.5 hours*
Conclusion: Critical path is Sh-Sel-Inst-Write-Ck-Sub and the expected duration is 7.5
hours.
d. The project could take longer than the expected duration if any activity on the critical path is
delayed or if the other activities on the parallel path (Ch-Lib-Out) are delayed by more than
0.8 hours (7.5 – 6.7).
17-4
Education.
Blank forms to distribute to students if desired:
3a. Bank location.
Weeks after start
Activity 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
1-2
1-3
2-4
2-5
3-5
4-5
5-6
b. Solved Problem #2.
Weeks after start
Activity 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
1-2
2-5
2-4
1-3
3-4
4-5
3. a. Bank location.
17-5
Education.
Weeks after start
Activity 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
1-2
1-3
2-4
2-5
3-5
4-5
5-6
b. Solved Problem #2.
Weeks after start
Activity 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
1-2
2-5
2-4
1-3
3-4
4-5
17-6
Education.
4. a.
A
E
Dummy
Immediate
Predecessor
Activity
A –
B –
C A
E C
F A,B
End E,F
17-7
Education.
4. b. Case 1: Activity on-Arrow Diagram
D
2
A 5
E K
End
B F H
1 3 6 8
C I
G
4 7
Case 2: Activity-on-Arrow Diagram
L 5
M
2 N
J 6 P
End
9
V
K R
1 3 7
Q W
S
4 T
8
17-8
Education.
4. c. Case 1: Activity-on-Node Diagram
A D
Start B E
End
F H
C G I
Case 2: Activity-on-Node Diagram
K R
S
End
Q
T
W
17-9
Education.
LS LF
5. a. 21
21
13 5
26
18 26
ES EF
4 7
13
L M
18
12 9 2 28
J 20
11 4 28
2
8 N P 10
4 2 3 31
7 4 11
7 28
4 24
0 8 21
19
5
26
19 26 12
1 12
19
19
12
31
0 10 6 31
0
11 25
10 3 6 5 25
10 25
10 4 25
6 9
Start 10
16 16 20
20
20
16 16 20
Summary:
Activity ES EF LS LF Slack
1–2 0 4 7 11 7
1–3 0 10 0 10 0
2–4 4 13 12 21 8
2–5 4 12 11 19 7
3–6 10 16 10 16 0
4–7 13 18 21 26 8
5–8 12 19 19 26 7
6–9 16 20 16 20 0
7–10 18 20 26 28 8
8–10 19 21 26 28 7
9–11 20 25 20 25 0
10–12 21 24 28 31 7
11–12 25 31 25 31 0
Note: Slack = LS – ES or LF – EF.
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Education.
Conclusion: Critical path is 1-3-6-9-11-12. Expected project duration is 31.
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Education.
5. b.
Summary:
Activity ES EF LS LF Slack
1 0 5 0 5 0
2 5 23 5 23 0
3 5 18 20 33 15
4 23 26 37 40 14
5 23 33 23 33 0
6 33 37 40 44 7
7 33 44 33 44 0
8 44 53 44 53 0
9 53 55 53 55 0
Note: Slack = LS – ES or LF – EF.
Conclusion: Critical path is 1-2-5-7-8-9. Expected project duration is 55.
LS LF
ES EF
37 40
26
5 23 4 40 44
5 37
3
2 6
23 33
18 33 4
0 5 5 44 53 53 55
5 53 55
1
10
8 9
20 33
5
33 44
3 18 9 2
7 44
13
11
17-12
Education.
6. The network diagram is given in Problem 1, Part a. After 12 weeks, activities 1-2, 1-3, and 2-4
have been finished; activity 2-5 is 75% finished; and activity 3-6 is 50% finished. How many
weeks after the original start date time should the project be finished. The original path expected
durations are given below:

1–2–4–7–10–12 4 + 9 + 5 + 2 + 3 = 23
1–2–5–8–10–12 4 + 8 + 7 + 2 + 3 = 24
1–3–6–9–11–12 10 + 6 + 4 + 5 + 6 = 31*
One way of solving this problem is to look at the effects on each path:
Path 1-2-4-7-10-12:
Activities 1-2 and 2-4 were estimated to require take 4 + 9 = 13 weeks. They finished in 12
weeks. In other words, Activity 2-4 finished 1 week early. The net effect is to reduce the expected
time of this path by 1 week to 22 weeks.
Path 1-2-5-8-10-12:
Activities 1-2 and 2-5 were estimated to require 4 + 8 = 12 weeks. Activity 2-5 is 75%
completed; therefore, 25% of the activity time (.25 * 8 = 2 weeks) remains. Activity 2-5 should
have been completed at the end of 12 weeks but is running 2 weeks late. The net effect is to
increase the expected time of this path by 2 weeks to 26 weeks.
Path 1-3-6-9-11-12:
Activities 1-3 and 3-6 were estimated to require 10 + 6 = 16 weeks. Activity 3-6 is 50%
completed; therefore, 50% of the activity time (.50 * 6 = 3 weeks) remains. This means that this
activity should be completed 1 week early because it should be completed by the end of week 15.
The net effect is to reduce the expected time of this path by 1 week to 30 weeks.
Conclusion: The longest path (1-3-6-9-11-12) is estimated to take 30 weeks. Therefore, the
expected project duration is 30 weeks. The original estimated project duration was 31 weeks. We
estimate that the project should be completed 1 week early.
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Education.
7. a. C
5
2 E
A
3 F 6 G End
8
Start D
1
I
B
4 H 7
b. Activity te 2
A 6.00 4/36
B 8.50 9/36
C 8.17 25/36
D 12.00 36/36
E 6.33 16/36
F 6.00 4/36
G 3.50 25/36
H 4.17 1/36
I 6.83 9/36
Path A-C-E:
Expected duration = 6.00 + 8.17 + 6.33 = 20.50
Variance = 4/36 + 25/36 + 16/36 = 45/36
Standard deviation =
√ 45
36
=1.118
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Education.
Path D-F-G:
Variance = 36/36 + 4/36 + 25/36 = 65/36
√ 65
36
=1.344
Path B-H-I:
Variance = 9/36 + 1/36 + 9/36 = 19/36
√ 19
36
=0.726
Specified time −Path mean

z=
Path standard deviation
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Education.
Specified time = 24 days or less:
Path A-C-E:
24−20.50
z= =3.13
1.118
Probability of completion ≤ 24 days = 1.00 (z value > +3.00—treat probability of completion

as being = 1.00)
Path D-F-G:
24−21.50
z= =1.86
1.344
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 24 days = 0.9686
Path B-H-I:
24−19.50
z= =6.20
0.726
Probability of completion ≤ 24 days = 1.00 (z value > +3.00—treat probability of completion

as being = 1.00)
Probability of completion ≤ 24 days = 1.00 x 0.9686 x 1.00 = 0.9686
Path A-C-E:
17-16
Education.
21−20.50
z= =0.45
1.118
Probability of completion ≤ 21 days = 0.6736
Path D-F-G:
21−21.50
z= =−0.37
1.344
Path B-H-I:
21−19.50
z= =2.07
0.726
Probability of completion ≤ 21 days = 0.9808
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Education.
c. Assume it is the end of the 7th day. Activities A and B have been completed while
Activity D is 50% completed. Time estimates for the completion time of Activity
D are 5, 6, and 7. Activities C and H are ready to begin. We can re-draw the network as shown
below.
Revised D: te = [5 + (4*6) + 7]/6 = 36/6 = 6.00

Revised Variance of D = (7 – 5)2 / 36 = 4/36
In the modified network, the expected times and variances are:
Activity te 2
C 8.17 25/36
D 6.00 4/36
E 6.33 16/36
F 6.00 4/36
G 3.50 25/36
H 4.17 1/36
I 6.83 9/36
The revised project diagram is:
C (8.17) E (6.33)
End 7th1 D (6.00) F (6.00) G (3.50)

3 5 6
y
H (4.17)
I (6.83)
Path C-E:
Expected duration from start of project = 7 + (8.17 + 6.33) = 21.50
Variance = 25/36 + 16/36 = 41/36
√ 41
36
=1.067
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Education.
Path D-F-G:
Expected duration from start of project = 7 + (6.00 + 6.00 + 3.50) = 22.50
Variance = 4/36 + 4/36 + 25/36 = 33/36
√ 33
36
=0.957
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Education.
Path H-I:
Expected duration from start of project = 7 + (4.17 + 6.83) = 18.00
Variance = 1/36 + 9/36 = 10/36
√ 10
36
=0.527

z=
Path C-E:
24−21.50
z= =2.34
1.067
Path D-F-G:
24−22.50
z= =1.57
0.957
Path H-I:
17-20
Education.
24−18.00
z= =11.39
0.527
Probability of completion ≤ 24 days = 1.0000 (z value > +3.00—treat probability of

completion as being = 1.0000)
Path C-E:
21−21.50
z= =−0.47
1.067
Path D-F-G:
21−22.50
z= =−1.57
0.957
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Education.
Path H-I:
21−18.00
z= =5.69
0.527
Probability of completion ≤ 21 days = 1.0000 (z value > +3.00—treat probability of

d. The partners want to shorten the project by 2 days as long as it does not cost more than
$20,000. The cost per day (in thousands) to crash activities is shown below:
Activity First Crash Second Crash

C $8 $10
D $10 $11
E $9 $10
F $7 $9
G $8 $9
H $7 $8
I $6 $8
Step 1:
The paths and their expected duration are shown below:

C-E 21.50
D-F-G 22.50
H-I 18.00
Critical path is D-F-G.
Rank critical activities according to crash costs:
Cost per Day

Activity to Crash
17-22
Education.
F $7
G $8
D $10
Activity F should be shortened 1 day because it has the lowest crashing cost ($7,000).
Path D-F-G now will be 21.50 days as shown below.
17-23
Education.
Step 2:

C-E 21.50
D-F-G 21.50
H-I 18.00
Critical paths are C-E and D-F-G.
Cost per Day

Path Activity to Crash
C-E C $8
E $9
D-F-G G $8
F $9
D $10
Choose one activity on each path to crash:

Activity C should be shortened 1 day because it has the lowest crashing cost ($8,000) on
Path C-E.
Activity G should be shortened 1 day because it has the lowest crashing cost ($8,000) on
Path D-F-G.
Path C-E now will be 20.50 days.
Path D-F-G now will be 20.50 days.
Conclusion: Total crashing cost is $7,000 + $8,000 + $8,000 = $23,000, which is $3,000
over budget. The partners have to determine whether the benefits of crashing the project
by 1 day or by 2 days are worth the extra cost.
17-24
Education.
8. Expected
Duration
Pat Variance Std. Dev.
h
A 10 1.21 1.100
B 8 2.00 1.414
C 12 1.00 1.000
D 15 2.89 1.700
E 14 1.44 1.200
a. Probability (Time ≤ 16 weeks):

z=
Path A:
16−10
z= =5.45
1.100
Probability of completion ≤ 16 weeks = 1.0000 (z value > +3.00—treat probability of completion
as being = 1.0000)
Path B:
16−8
z= =5.66
1.414
as being = 1.0000)
Path C:
16−12
z= =4.00
1.000
as being = 1.0000)
Path D:
16−15
z= =0.59
1.700
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 16 weeks = 0.7224
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Education.
Path E:
16−14
z= =1.67
1.200
Conclusion: Probability (T  16) = 1.0000 x 1.0000 x 1.0000 x 0.7224 x 0.9525 = 0.6881
17-26
Education.
b. Probability (Time ≤ 15 weeks):

z=
Path A:
15−10
z= =4.55
1.100
as being = 1.0000)
Path B:
15−8
z= =4.95
1.414
as being = 1.0000)
Path C:
15−12
z= =3.00
1.000
Path D:
15−15
z= =0.00
1.700
Path E:
15−14
z= =0.83
1.200
17-27
Education.
c. Probability (Time ≤ 13 weeks):

z=
Path A:
13−10
z= =2.73
1.100
Path B:
13−8
z= =3.54
1.414
as being = 1.0000)
Path C:
13−12
z= =1.00
1.000
Path D:
13−15
z= =−1.18
1.700
Path E:
13−14
z= =−0.83
1.200
17-28
Education.
9. Given:
Standard
Path Activity Mean Deviation
A C 5 1.3
D 4 1.0
B E 8 1.6
Probability (T > 10 weeks):

z=
Path A:
Expected duration = 5 + 4 = 9
Standard deviation:
We must find the variance of the path first by squaring the individual standard deviations to find
the variance for each activity, add the variances, and take the square root of the sum.
Variance = 1.32 +1.02=1.690+1.000=2.690
Standard deviation = √ 2.690=1.640
10−9
z= =0.61
1.640
Path B:
Expected duration = 8
Standard deviation = 1.600
10−8
z= =1.25
1.600
Conclusion: Probability (T ≤ 10 weeks) = 0.7291 x 0.8944 = 0.6521
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Education.
Probability (T > 10 weeks) = 1.0000 – 0.6521 = 0.3479
17-30
Education.
10. Given:
The project described below is scheduled to be completed in 11 weeks.
Standard
Path Activity Mean Deviation
A C 4 0.70
D 6 0.90
B E 3 0.62
F 9 1.90
a. If you were the manager of this project, would you be concerned? Explain.
Probability (T ≤ 11 weeks):

z=
Path A:
Standard deviation:
We must find the variance of the path first by squaring the individual standard deviations to
find the variance for each activity, add the variances, and take the square root of the sum.
Variance = 0.702 +0.90 2=0.490+0.810=1.300
11−10
z= =0.88
1.140
Path B:
Standard deviation:
We must find the variance of the path first by squaring the individual standard deviations to
find the variance for each activity, add the variances, and take the square root of the sum.
Variance = 0.622 +1.902=0.384 +3.610=3.994
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Education.
11−12
z= =−0.50
1.998
Conclusion: Probability (T ≤ 11 weeks) = 0.8106 x 0.3085 = 0.2501. The manager should be

concerned because there is only a 0.2501 probability of finishing on time.
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Education.
b. If there is a penalty of $5,000 a week for each week the project is late, what is the probability
of incurring a penalty of at least $5,000?
This question is asking what the probability will be that the project will take at least 12 weeks
(which would be 1 week late).
Probability (T ≥ 12 weeks):

z=
Path A:
12−10
z= =1.75
1.140
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion < 12 weeks = 0.9599
Path B:
12−12
z= =0.00
1.998
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion < 12 weeks = 0.5000
Conclusion: Probability (T < 12 weeks) = 0.9599 x 0.5000 = 0.4800
Probability (T ≥ 12 weeks) = 1.0000 – 0.4800 = 0.5200
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Education.
11. Given:
We are given the following times (optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic) for each activity in the
table below.
a. Determine the expected completion time for each path and its variance.
Most
Activity Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Mean Variance
1-2 8 8 8 8.00 0/36
2-3 11 12 13 12.00 4/36
2-4 5 6 7 6.00 4/36
2-5 10 12 14 12.00 16/36
3-8 9 10 12 10.17 9/36
4-6 14 18 26 18.67 144/36
4-7 13 13 13 13.00 0/36
5-9 7 10 12 9.83 25/36
6-11 8 10 14 10.33 36/36
7-11 10.5 13 15.5 13.00 25/36
8-11 5 7 10 7.17 25/36
9-10 10 11 12 11.00 4/36
10-11 6 6 6 6.00 0/36
Path 1-2-3-8-11:
Expected completion time = 8.00 + 12.00 + 10.17 + 7.17 = 37.34
Variance = 0/36 + 4/36 + 9/36 + 25/36 = 38/36
√ 38
36
=1.027
Path 1-2-4-6-11:
Variance = 0/36 + 4/36 + 144/36 + 36/36 = 184/36
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Education.
√ 184
36
=2.261
Path 1-2-4-7-11:
Variance = 0/36 + 4/36 + 0/36 + 25/36 = 29/36
Path 1-2-5-9-10-11:
√ 29
36
=0.898
Expected completion time = 8.00 + 12.00 + 9.83 + 11.00 + 6.00 = 46.83

Variance = 0/36 + 16/36 + 25/36 + 4/36 + 0/36 = 45/36
√ 45
36
=1.118
b. Determine the probability that the project will require more than 49 weeks.
Probability (T > 49 weeks):
Path 1-2-3-8-11:
49−37.34
z= =11.35
1.027
Probability of completion ≤ 49 weeks = 1.0000 (z value > +3.00—treat probability of
Path 1-2-4-6-11:
49−43.00
z= =2.65
2.261
Path 1-2-4-7-11:
49−40.00
z= =10.02
0.898
Path 1-2-5-9-10-11:
17-35
Education.
49−46.83
z= =1.94
1.118
Conclusion: Probability (T ≤ 49 weeks) = 1.0000 x 0.9960 x 1.0000 x 0.9738 = 0.9699

Probability (T > 49 weeks) = 1.0000 – 0.9699 = 0.0301
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Education.
c. Determine the probability that the project will be completed in 46 weeks or less.
Probability (T ≤ 46 weeks):
Path 1-2-3-8-11:
46−37.34
z= =8.43
1.027
Path 1-2-4-6-11:
46−43.00
z= =1.33
2.261
Path 1-2-4-7-11:
46−40.00
z= =6.68
0.898
Path 1-2-5-9-10-11:
46−46.83
z= =−0.74
1.118
Conclusion: Probability (T ≤ 46 weeks) = 1.0000 x 0.9082 x 1.0000 x 0.2296 = 0.2085
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Education.
12. Given:
We are given the following times (optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic) for each activity in the
table below.
Most
Activity Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Mean Variance
A 2 4 6 4.00 16/36
D 6 8 10 8.00 16/36
E 7 9 12 9.17 25/36
H 2 3 5 3.17 9/36
F 3 4 8 4.50 25/36
G 5 7 9 7.00 16/36
B 2 2 3 2.17 1/36
I 2 3 6 3.33 16/36
J 3 4 5 4.00 4/36
K 4 5 8 5.33 16/36
C 5 8 12 8.17 49/36
M 1 1 1 1.00 0/36
N 6 7 11 7.50 25/36
O 8 9 13 9.50 25/36
End
a. Construct a network diagram.

D 5 E
2
F
9
A H
6 G
Start End
12
1
B
K
3 I 7 J 10 O
C
17-38
Education.
M N 11
4 8
17-39
Education.
b. The project manager will receive a bonus of $1,000 if the project is finished within 26 weeks.
P (T ≤ 26):
Path A-D-E-H:
Variance = 16/36 + 16/36 + 25/36 + 9/36 = 66/36
√ 66
36
=1.354
26−24.34
z= =1.23
1.354
Path A-F-G:
Expected completion time = 4.00 + 4.50 + 7.00 = 15.50
Variance = 16/36 + 25/36 + 16/36 = 57/36
√ 57
36
=1.258
26−15.50
z= =8.35
1.258
Path B-I-J-K:

Variance = 1/36 + 16/36 + 4/36 + 16/36 = 37/36
√ 37
36
=1.014
26−14.83
z= =11.02
1.014
Path C-M-N-O:
17-40
Education.
Variance = 49/36 + 0/36 + 25/36 + 25/36 = 99/36
√ 99
36
=1.658
26−26.17
z= =−0.10
1.658
Conclusion: The probability of receiving a bonus of $1,000 = Probability (T ≤ 26 weeks) =

0.8907 x 1.0000 x 1.0000 x 0.4602 = 0.4099
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Education.
The project manager will receive a bonus of $500 if the project is finished within 27 weeks.
P (T ≤ 27):
Path A-D-E-H:
27−24.34
z= =1.96
1.354
Path A-F-G:
27−15.50
z= =9.14
1.258
Path B-I-J-K:
27−14.83
z= =12.00
1.014
Path C-M-N-O:
27−26.17
z= =0.50
1.658
Conclusion: The probability of receiving a bonus of $500 = Probability (T ≤ 27 weeks) =

0.9750 x 1.0000 x 1.0000 x 0.6915 = 0.6742
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Education.
13. Given:
We have the following list of activities for a project and crashing costs:
Path Activity Duration (weeks) First Crash Second Crash
Top A 5 $8 $10
B 6 $7 $9
C 3 $14 $15
Middle D 3 $9 $11
E 7 $8 $9
C 3 $14 $15
Bottom F 5 $10 $15
G 5 $11 $13
H 5 $12 $14
Determine which activities should be crashed to shorten the project by 3 weeks as cheaply as
possible. Draw the precedence diagram first.
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Education.
B
2
4
C
A E
7
D
3
11
H
F
G
5
17-44
Education.
Step 1:

A-B-C 14
D-E-C 13
F-G-H 15
Critical path is F-G-H.
Cost per Week

Activity to Crash
F $10
G $11
H $12
Activity F should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($10). Path
F-G-H now will be 14 weeks as shown below.
Activities crashed to this point: Step 1: F (first crash).
Step 2:

A-B-C 14
D-E-C 13
F-G-H 14
Critical paths are A-B-C and F-G-H.
Cost per Week

A-B-C B $7
A $8
17-45
Education.
C $14
F-G-H G $11
H $12
F $15
17-46
Education.

Activity B should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($7) on
Path A-B-C.
Activity G should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($11) on
Path F-G-H.
Path A-B-C now will be 13 weeks as shown below.
Path D-F-G now will be 13 weeks as shown below.
Activities crashed to this point: Step 1: F (first crash). Step 2: B (first crash) & G (first
crash).
Step 3:

A-B-C 13
D-E-C 13
F-G-H 13
Critical paths are A-B-C, D-E-C, and F-G-H.
Cost per Week

A-B-C A $8
B $9
C $14
D-E-C E $8
D $9
C $14
F-G-H H $12
G $13
F $15

At first glance, it appears that we should crash Activity A on Path A-B-C and Activity E
on Path D-E-C. The combined crashing cost would be $8 + $8 = $16. However, Activity
C is on both paths and could be crashed for $14.
Activity C should be shortened 1 week at a crashing cost of $14.
17-47
Education.
Activity H should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($12) on
Path F-G-H.
Paths A-B-C, D-E-C, and F-G-H will decrease to 12 weeks.
Activities crashed to this point: Step 1: F (first crash). Step 2: B (first crash) & G (first
crash). Step 3: C (first crash) & H (first crash).
17-48
Education.
A summary of the crashing steps is shown below:
Length after Length after Length after

crashing 1 week crashing 2 weeks crashing 3 weeks
Path Initial time
A-B-C 14 wk. 14 wk. 13 wk. 12 wk.
D-E-C 13 wk. 13 wk. 13 wk. 12 wk.
F-G-H 15 wk. 14 wk. 13 wk. 12 wk.
Step 1 Crashing Step 2 Crashing Step 3 Crashing
Activity Cost Activity Cost Activity Cost
F $10 B $7 C $14
G 11 H 12
$18 $26
Conclusion: Expected project duration = 12 weeks. Total crashing cost = $10 + $18 + $26 = $54.
17-49
Education.
14. Given:
We have the activities and crashing costs shown below:
Immediate Normal Time Crashing Cost ($000) Crashing Cost ($000)

Predecessor (weeks)
Activity First Week Second Week
A --- 12 $15 $20
B A 14 $10 $10
C --- 10 $5 $5
D C 17 $20 $21
E C 18 $16 $18
F C 12 $12 $15
G D 15 $24 $24
H E 8 --- ---
I F 7 $30 ---
J I 12 $25 $25
K B 9 $10 $10
M G 3 --- ---
N H 11 $40 ---
P H, J 8 $20 $20
End K, M, N, P
Construct a network diagram:
A K
Start
End
C M
G 17-50
D N P
Copyright © 2015 McGraw-Hill Education.
E All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill
H Education.
F
J
I
17-51
Education.
Determine a minimum-cost crashing schedule that will shave five weeks off the project length:
Step 1:
A-B-K 35
C-D-G-M 45
C-E-H-N 47
C-E-H-P 44
C-F-I-J-P 49
Critical path is C-F-I-J-P.
Cost per Week
Activity to Crash
C $5
F $12
P $20
J $25
I $30
Activity C should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($5).
Paths C-D-G-M, C-E-H-N, C-E-H-P, and C-F-I-J-P all will decrease 1 week as shown below.
Activities crashed to this point: Step 1: C (first week).
Step 2:
A-B-K 35
C-D-G-M 44
C-E-H-N 46
C-E-H-P 43
C-F-I-J-P 48
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Education.

Cost per Week
Activity to Crash
C $5
F $12
P $20
J $25
I $30
Activity C should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($5).
Paths C-D-G-M, C-E-H-N, C-E-H-P, and C-F-I-J-P all will decrease 1 week.
Activities crashed to this point: Step 1: C (first week). Step 2: C (second week).
Step 3:
A-B-K 35
C-D-G-M 43
C-E-H-N 45
C-E-H-P 42
C-F-I-J-P 47

Cost per Week
Activity to Crash
F $12
P $20
J $25
I $30
Activity F should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($12).
Path C-F-I-J-P will decrease 1 week as shown below.
Activities crashed to this point: Step 1: C (first week). Step 2: C (second week). Step 3: F (first
week).
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Education.
Step 4:
A-B-K 35
C-D-G-M 43
C-E-H-N 45
C-E-H-P 42
C-F-I-J-P 46

Cost per Week
Activity to Crash
F $15
P $20
J $25
I $30
Activity F should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($15).
Path C-F-I-J-P will decrease 1 week as shown below.
week). Step 4: F (second week).
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Education.
Step 5:
A-B-K 35
C-D-G-M 43
C-E-H-N 45
C-E-H-P 42
C-F-I-J-P 45
Critical paths are C-E-H-N and C-F-I-J-P.

Cost per Week
C-E-H-N E $16
N $40
C-F-I-J-P P $20
J $25
I $30
Activity E should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($16) on Path C-E-
H-N. Paths C-E-H-N and C-E-H-P each will decrease 1 week.
Activity P should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($20) on Path C-F-
I-J-P. Paths C-E-H-P and C-F-I-J-P each will decrease 1 week as shown below.
week). Step 4: F (second week). Step 5: E (first week) & P (first week).
The final duration for each path is shown below:

A-B-K 35
C-D-G-M 43
C-E-H-N 44
C-E-H-P 40
C-F-I-J-P 44
17-55
Education.
17-56
Education.
Length after Length after Length after Length after Length after
crashing 1 crashing 2 crashing 3 crashing 4 crashing 5
Path Initial week weeks weeks weeks weeks
time
A-B-K 35 wk. 35 wk. 35 wk. 35 wk. 35 wk. 35 wk.
C-D-G-M 45 wk. 44 wk. 43 wk. 43 wk. 43 wk. 43 wk.
C-E-H-N 47 wk. 46 wk. 45 wk. 45 wk. 45 wk. 44 wk.
C-E-H-P 44 wk. 43 wk. 42 wk. 42 wk. 42 wk. 40 wk.
C-F-I-J-P 49 wk. 48 wk. 47 wk. 46 wk. 45 wk. 44 wk.
Step 1 Crashing Step 2 Crashing Step 3 Crashing Step 4 Crashing Step 5 Crashing
Activity Cost Activity Cost Activity Cost Activity Cost Activity Cost
C $5 C $5 F $12 F $15 E $16
P 20
$36
Conclusion: Expected project duration = 44 weeks. Total crashing cost = $5 + $5 + $12 + $15 + $36 =
$73(000) = $73,000.
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Education.
15. Given:
We have the following activities and crashing costs ($000):
Crashing Costs ($000)
First Second Third
Activity Week Week Week
1-2 $18 $22 ---

2-5 $24 $25 $25
5-7 $30 $30 $35
7-11 $15 $20 ---
11-13 $30 $33 $36
1-3 $12 $24 $26
3-8 --- --- ---
8-11 $40 $40 $40
3-9 $3 $10 $12
9-12 $2 $7 $10
12-13 $26 --- ---
1-4 $10 $15 $25
4-6 $8 $13 ---
6-10 $5 $12 ---
10-12 $14 $15 ---
Indirect costs total $40(000) per week.
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Education.
a. Determine the optimum time-cost crashing plan.

We will continue crashing as long as the crashing cost at a given step ≤ $40.
Step 1:
1-2-5-7-11-13 35
1-3-8-11-13 32
1-3-9-12-13 20
1-4-6-10-12-13 33
Critical path is 1-2-5-7-11-13.
Cost per Week
Activity to Crash
7-11 $15
1-2 $18
2-5 $24
5-7 $30
11-13 $30
Activity 7-11 should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($15) and
this cost is ≤ $40.
Path 1-2-5-7-11-13 will decrease 1 week as shown below.
Activities crashed to this point: Step 1: 7-11 (first week).
Step 2:
1-2-5-7-11-13 34
1-3-8-11-13 32
1-3-9-12-13 20
1-4-6-10-12-13 33
Critical path is 1-2-5-7-11-13.
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Education.
Cost per Week

Activity to Crash
1-2 $18
7-11 $20
2-5 $24
5-7 $30
11-13 $30
Activity 1-2 should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($18) and
this cost is ≤ $40. Path 1-2-5-7-11-13 will decrease 1 week as shown below.
Activities crashed to this point: Step 1: 7-11 (first week). Step 2: 1-2 (first week).
Step 3:
1-2-5-7-11-13 33
1-3-8-11-13 32
1-3-9-12-13 20
1-4-6-10-12-13 33
Critical paths are 1-2-5-7-11-13 & 1-4-6-10-12-13.
Cost per Week
1-2-5-7-11-13 7-11 $20
1-2 $22
2-5 $24
5-7 $30
11-13 $30
1-4-6-10-12-13 6-10 $5
4-6 $8
1-4 $10
10-12 $14
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Education.
12-13 $26
Activity 7-11 should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($20) on
Path 1-2-5-7-11-13, which will decrease 1 week as shown below.
The combined crashing cost = $25 and is ≤ $40.
Activities crashed to this point: Step 1: 7-11 (first week). Step 2: 1-2 (first week). Step 3: 7-
11 (second week) & 6-10 (first week).
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Education.
Step 4:
1-2-5-7-11-13 32
1-3-8-11-13 32
1-3-9-12-13 20
1-4-6-10-12-13 32
Critical paths are 1-2-5-7-11-13, 1-3-8-11-13, & 1-4-6-10-12-13.
Cost per Week
1-2-5-7-11-13 1-2 $22
2-5 $24
5-7 $30
11-13 $30
1-3-8-11-13 1-3 $12
11-13 $30
8-11 $40
1-4-6-10-12-13 4-6 $8
1-4 $10
6-10 $12
10-12 $14
12-13 $26
Activity 11-13 should be shortened 1 week on Paths 1-2-5-7-11-13 & 1-3-8-11-13 because it
has the lowest crashing cost ($30) to shorten both paths. Both paths will decrease 1 week as
shown below.
Activity 4-6 should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($8) on Path
1-4-6-10-12-13, which will decrease 1 week as shown below.
The combined crashing cost = $38 and is ≤ $40.
11 (second week) & 6-10 (first week). Step 4: Activity 11-13 (first week) & Activity 4-6
(first week).
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17-63
Education.
Step 5:
1-2-5-7-11-13 31
1-3-8-11-13 31
1-3-9-12-13 20
1-4-6-10-12-13 31
Cost per Week
1-2-5-7-11-13 1-2 $22
2-5 $24
5-7 $30
11-13 $33
1-3-8-11-13 1-3 $12
11-13 $33
8-11 $40
1-4-6-10-12-13 1-4 $10
6-10 $12
4-6 $13
10-12 $14
12-13 $26
Activity 11-13 could be shortened 1 week on Paths 1-2-5-7-11-13 & 1-3-8-11-13 because it
has the lowest crashing cost ($33) to shorten both paths. Both paths would decrease 1 week.
Activity 1-4 could be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($10) on Path
1-4-6-10-12-13, which would decrease 1 week.
The combined crashing cost = $43 and is > $40. Stop.
The marginal cost of crashing > marginal benefit of crashing. We stop crashing after Step 4.
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Education.
Length after Length after Length after Length after

crashing 1 crashing 2 crashing 3 crashing 4
Path Initial week weeks weeks weeks
time
1-2-5-7-11-13 35 34 33 32 31
1-3-8-11-13 32 32 32 32 31
1-3-9-12-13 20 20 20 20 20
1-4-6-10-12-13 33 33 33 32 31
Step 1 Crashing Step 2 Crashing Step 3 Crashing Step 4 Crashing
Activity Cost Activity Cost Activity Cost Activity Cost
7-11 $15 1-2 $18 7-11 $20 11-13 $30
6-10 $ 5 4-6 $ 8
$25 $38
Conclusion: Expected project duration = 31 weeks (shortened by 4 weeks).
Total crashing cost = $15 + $18 + $25 + $38 = $96.
Total indirect costs = 31 x $40 = $1,240.
Total cost over 31 weeks = $96 + $1,240 = $1,336(000) = $1,336,000
b. Plot the total-cost curve that describes the least expensive crashing schedule that will reduce
the project length by 6 weeks:
In Part a of this problem, we reduced the project length by 4 weeks. We must decrease the
project length by 2 more weeks. We will start with Step 5 from Part a above.
17-65
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17-66
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Step 5:
1-2-5-7-11-13 31
1-3-8-11-13 31
1-3-9-12-13 20
1-4-6-10-12-13 31

Cost per Week
1-2-5-7-11-13 1-2 $22
2-5 $24
5-7 $30
11-13 $33
1-3-8-11-13 1-3 $12
11-13 $33
8-11 $40
1-4-6-10-12-13 1-4 $10
6-10 $12
4-6 $13
10-12 $14
12-13 $26
Activity 11-13 should be shortened 1 week on Paths 1-2-5-7-11-13 & 1-3-8-11-13 because it
has the lowest crashing cost ($33) to shorten both paths. Both paths will decrease 1 week as
shown below.
The combined crashing cost = $43.
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Education.
(first week). Step 5: Activity 11-13 (second week) & Activity 1-4 (first week).
17-68
Education.
Step 6:
1-2-5-7-11-13 30
1-3-8-11-13 30
1-3-9-12-13 20
1-4-6-10-12-13 30

Cost per Week
1-2-5-7-11-13 1-2 $22
2-5 $24
5-7 $30
11-13 $36
1-3-8-11-13 1-3 $12
11-13 $36
8-11 $40
1-4-6-10-12-13 6-10 $12
4-6 $13
10-12 $14
1-4 $15
12-13 $26
Path 1-3-8-11-13, which will decrease 1 week as shown below.
The combined crashing cost = $46.
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Education.
(first week). Step 5: Activity 11-13 (second week) & Activity 1-4 (first week). Step 6:
Activity 1-2 (second week), Activity 1-3 (first week), & Activity 6-10 (second week).

1-2-5-7-11-13 29
1-3-8-11-13 29
1-3-9-12-13 20
1-4-6-10-12-13 29
17-70
Education.
Length Length Length Length Length Length

after after after after after after
Path Initial crashing 1 crashing 2 crashing 3 crashing 4 crashing 5 crashing 6
time week weeks weeks weeks weeks weeks
1-2-5-7-11-13 35 34 33 32 31 30 29
1-3-8-11-13 32 32 32 32 31 30 29
1-3-9-12-13 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
1-4-6-10-12-13 33 33 33 32 31 30 30
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5 Step 6

Crashing Crashing Crashing Crashing Crashing Crashing
Activity Cost Activity Cost Activity Cost Activity Cost Activity Cost Activity Cost
7-11 $15 1-2 $18 7-11 $20 11-13 $30 11-13 $33 1-2 $22
6-10 $ 5 4-6 $ 8 1-4 $10 1-3 $12
$25 $38 $43 6-10 $12
$46
Total crashing cost = $15 + $18 + $25 + $38 + $43 + $46 = $185.
Total indirect costs = 29 x $40 = $1,160.
Total cost over 29 weeks = $185 + $1,160 = $1,345(000) = $1,345,000
The table below summarizes the cumulative crashing cost, indirect cost, and total cost for
project lengths of 35, 34, 33, 32, 31, 30, and 29 weeks:
Project Cumulative Cumulative Indirect Cost Total Cost
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Education.
Crash Cost
Weeks
Length Shortened ($000) ($000) ($000)
35 0 0 35(40) = 1,400 1,400

34 1 15 34(40) = 1,360 1,375
33 2 15 + 18 = 33 33(40) = 1,320 1,353
32 3 33 + 25 = 58 32(40) = 1,280 1,338
31 4 58 + 38 = 96 31(40) = 1,240 1,336
30 5 96 + 43 = 139 30(40) = 1,200 1,339
29 6 139 + 46 = 185 29(40) = 1,160 1,345
17-72
Education.
The total cost-curve is plotted below:
1,400
Total
Cost
($000)
1,300
0 3031 32333435
29
Project Length
(weeks)
17-73
Education.
16. Given:
We have the following crashing costs for activities:
Crash Cost Crash Cost

Activity 1 Week
st
2nd Week
K $410 $415
L $125 ---
N $45 $45
M $300 $350
J $50 ---
Q $200 $225
P --- ---
Y $85 $90
Z $90 ---
The network diagram is shown below:
M
L P Z
Start K Q Y
End
N J
Develop a crashing schedule given that Mr. T wants delivery in 32 weeks or he will impose a
penalty of $375 for each week his yacht is late:
We will crash as long as the crash cost at a step ≤ $375.
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Education.
Step 1:

K-L-M-Q-P-Z 39
K-L-M-Q-Y 32
K-N-J-Q-P-Z 39
K-N-J-Q-Y 32
Critical paths are K-L-M-Q-P-Z & K-N-J-Q-P-Z.
Cost per Week

K-L-M-Q-P-Z Z $90
L $125
Q $200
M $300
K $410
K-N-J-Q-P-Z N $45
J $50
Z $90
Q $200
K $410
Activity Z should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($90) to crash
both critical paths, which both will decrease by 1 week as shown below. This cost is ≤ $375.
Activities crashed to this point: Step 1: Activity Z (1 st week).
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Education.
Step 2:

K-L-M-Q-P-Z 38
K-L-M-Q-Y 32
K-N-J-Q-P-Z 38
K-N-J-Q-Y 32
Cost per Week

K-L-M-Q-P-Z L $125
Q $200
M $300
K $410
K-N-J-Q-P-Z N $45
J $50
Q $200
K $410
Activity L should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($125) on Path
K-L-M-Q-P-Z, which will decrease Paths K-L-M-Q-P-Z & K-L-M-Q-Y 1 week as shown
below.
Activity N should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($45) on Path
K-N-J-Q-P-Z, which will decrease Paths K-N-J-Q-P-Z & K-N-J-Q-Y 1 week as shown
below.
Combined crashing cost = $170. This cost is ≤ $375.
Activities crashed to this point: Step 1: Activity Z (1 st week). Step 2: Activity L (1st week) &
Activity N (1st week).
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Step 3:

K-L-M-Q-P-Z 37
K-L-M-Q-Y 31
K-N-J-Q-P-Z 37
K-N-J-Q-Y 31
Cost per Week

K-L-M-Q-P-Z Q $200
M $300
K $410
K-N-J-Q-P-Z N $45
J $50
Q $200
K $410
Activity Q should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($200) to
crash both critical paths. This cost is ≤ $375. All four paths will decrease by 1 week as shown
below.
Activity N (1st week). Step 3: Activity Q (1st week).
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Step 4:

K-L-M-Q-P-Z 36
K-L-M-Q-Y 30
K-N-J-Q-P-Z 36
K-N-J-Q-Y 30
Cost per Week

K-L-M-Q-P-Z Q $225
M $300
K $410
K-N-J-Q-P-Z N $45
J $50
Q $225
K $410
Activity Q should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($225) to
crash both critical paths. This cost is ≤ $375. All four paths will decrease by 1 week as shown
below.
Activity N (1st week). Step 3: Activity Q (1st week). Step 4: Activity Q (2nd week).
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Education.
Step 5:

K-L-M-Q-P-Z 35
K-L-M-Q-Y 29
K-N-J-Q-P-Z 35
K-N-J-Q-Y 29
Cost per Week

K-L-M-Q-P-Z M $300
K $410
K-N-J-Q-P-Z N $45
J $50
K $410
Activity M should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($300) on
Path K-L-M-Q-P-Z, which will decrease Paths K-L-M-Q-P-Z & K-L-M-Q-Y 1 week as
shown below.
Activity N should be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($45) on Path
K-N-J-Q-P-Z, which will decrease Paths K-N-J-Q-P-Z & K-N-J-Q-Y 1 week as shown
below.
Combined crashing cost = $345. This cost is ≤ $375.
Activity N (1st week). Step 3: Activity Q (1st week). Step 4: Activity Q (2nd week). Step 5:
Activity M (1st week) & Activity N (2nd week).
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Step 6:

K-L-M-Q-P-Z 34
K-L-M-Q-Y 28
K-N-J-Q-P-Z 34
K-N-J-Q-Y 28
Cost per Week

K-L-M-Q-P-Z M $350
K $410
K-N-J-Q-P-Z J $50
K $410
Activity M could be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($350) on Path
K-L-M-Q-P-Z, which would decrease Paths K-L-M-Q-P-Z & K-L-M-Q-Y 1 week.
Activity J could be shortened 1 week because it has the lowest crashing cost ($50) on Path
K-N-J-Q-P-Z, which would decrease Paths K-N-J-Q-P-Z & K-N-J-Q-Y 1 week.
However, combined crashing cost = $400. This cost is > $375. Stop.
Do not perform this crashing. We are finished crashing after Step 5.
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Length Length Length Length Length

after after after after after
Path Initial crashing 1 crashing 2 crashing 3 crashing 4 crashing 5
time week weeks weeks weeks weeks
K-L-M-Q-P-Z 39 38 37 36 35 34
K-L-M-Q-Y 32 32 31 30 29 28
K-N-J-Q-P-Z 39 38 37 36 35 34
K-N-J-Q-Y 32 32 31 30 29 28
Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Step 5

Crashing Crashing Crashing Crashing Crashing
Activity Cost Activity Cost Activity Cost Activity Cost Activity Cost
z $90 L $125 Q $200 Q $225 M $300
N $ 45 N $ 45
$170 $345
Total crashing cost = $90 + $170 + $200 + $225 + $345 = $1,030.
Mr. T’s yacht will be 2 weeks late.
Total penalty cost = 2 x $375 = $750.
Total Cost = Crashing Cost + Penalty Cost = $1,030 + $750 = $1,780.
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17. Given:
We have the following activities and time estimates:
Path Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Top A 4 5 6
B 7 8 10
C 3 5 9
Bottom D 7 8 11
E 2 3 4
F 1 4 6
Draw the network:
2 B 4
A C
Start 1 End
F
D
3 E 5
Standard
Deviation
Path Activity Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic Mean
Top A 4 5 6 5.00 4/36
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B 7 8 10 8.17 9/36
C 3 5 9 5.33 36/36
Bottom D 7 8 11 8.33 16/36
E 2 3 4 3.00 4/36
F 1 4 6 3.83 25/36
a. Determine the expected duration of the project.
Path A-B-C:
Variance = 4/36 + 9/36 + 36/36 = 49/36
Path D-E-F:
Variance = 16/36 + 4/36 + 25/36 = 45/36
Conclusion: Expected project completion = 18.50 days.
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b. Determine the probability that the project will take at least 18 days.
Probability (T ≥ 18):
Path A-B-C:
√ 49
36
=1.167
18−18.50
z= =−0.43
1.167
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion < 18 days = 0.3336
Path D-E-F:
√ 45
36
=1.118
18−15.16
z= =2.54
1.118
Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion < 18 days = 0.9945
Conclusion: Probability (T < 18) = 0.3336 x 0.9945 = 0.3318
Probability (T ≥ 18) = 1.0000 – 0.3318 = 0.6682.
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18. Given:
We are given the events, probabilities, and costs in the table below:
Event Probability Cost ($000)
1 .25 15
2 .35 25
3 .20 55
4 .80 10
5 .10 77
6 .40 55
7 .60 50
Create a risk matrix for this project. Use a vertical scale of $0 to $80.
$80
5
0 .25 .50 .75 1.00

Cost
$60 Probability of Occurring
$40
3 6
Conclusion: The manager should be most concerned about

Event #7, which has a greater than 50% probability of
$20 2
occurring and a relatively high cost.
1
4
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19. Given:
We are given the events, probabilities, and costs in the table below:
Event Probability Cost ($000)
1. Equipment breakdown .20 40
2. Vendor is late with key segment. .60 200
3. Subcontractor has labor issues. .30 140
4. Weather problems. Unknown 15
5. Funding delays. .40 to .60 50
6. Testing delays. .40 20
Create a matrix for this project:
$200
2
$150
Cost $100
5
6
$50
4
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Education.
0 .25 .50 .75 1.00
Probability of Occurring
The weather problems (4) and funding delays (5) are placed using the highest probabilities
because we are conservative (i.e., we will assume the worst case).
Conclusion: The manager should be most concerned about Event 2 (vendor is late with key
segment) due to its greater than 50% probability and its high cost.
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Education.
Case: The Mexican Crazy Quilt

The case combines behavioral considerations in project management with development of a foreign
subsidiary. Although some students will have minor problems getting all the names straight, I think you
will find that the case produces good discussion as well as a realistic view of the sorts of difficulties often
encountered on projects.
1. Linderman Industries was correct to adopt a project organization for getting the Mexican
subsidiary started because this was a one-time, unique effort requiring the planning and
coordination of diverse activities. In addition, much of the work cut across functional boundaries.
2. Naturally, the division managers would be opposed to releasing their best people to work on the
project. In fact, while the project might be important to top management, the division managers
undoubtedly had different priorities based on how they were evaluated, not on the success or
failure of this particular project. Rather, their evaluations would concern ongoing activities
directly related to their divisions.
3. Many people are quite content to work in a stable environment, where there is little chance of
unexpected events that might upset the established routine. These people are risk-adverse; they
are fully content to operate in a static environment. Moreover, experienced workers might have
witnessed similar projects that involved project personnel leaving the organization or moving into
less desirable jobs once the project had been completed. Thus, Bert Mill might have wanted to
avoid that possibility.
4. Conway realized that he might “go to the well” once too often: not every argument would be
decided in his favor. Moreover, he undoubtedly recognized that these arguments stirred up a
certain amount of resentment, which would bode ill for any future dealings he might have with
these people. In fact, that is just what happened when he took the disagreement that engineer Bob
Cates was having with the Mexican engineer on layout to Bob’s former boss, Sam Sargis.
5. To begin with, firms must recognize the potential problems, and then set up a mechanism to deal
with them before they occur. One possible approach to the problem might be to rotate people in
and out of the project. This would involve shorter worker absences from their regular jobs, which
would translate into these workers keeping their full-time positions. On that basis, more people
like Bert Mill might be willing to work on the project. In addition, more people would have an
opportunity to expand their job horizons.
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Case: Time, Please

Given:
Expected Standard
Path Duration (weeks) Deviation
A 10 4
B 14 2
C 13 2
Project duration for Smitty to include in the proposal for a 5% risk of not delivering the project on
time:
This means we would like a 0.9500 probability of completion within the specified time. When we take the
probability of completion within the specified time for each path and multiply these probabilities, we
need to obtain a joint probability of at least 0.9500.
We start by looking for a Z value in Appendix B Table B corresponding to 0.9500:

z = 1.645.
Next, we can analyze the length of each path if we use this corresponding z value (1.645):
Path A: 10 + (1.645)(4) = 16.58

Path B: 14 + (1.645)(2) = 17.29
Path C: 13 + (1.645)(2) = 16.29
We know that we need all three probabilities to be > 0.9500; therefore we can start by focusing on the
longest path (Path B) and specify the project completion time as 17.29 days as a starting point.
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Education.
We can set up a spreadsheet in Excel to automate our calculations. To find a probability for a z value
using Excel, we enter the following formula: =NORMSDIST(z), where z = the cell where we have
calculated z.
Column
Row A B C D E
1 Path Mean Sigma z value Prob.
2 A 10 4 1.8225 0.9658
3 B 14 2 1.645 0.9500
4 C 13 2 2.145 0.9840
5 Completion = 17.29
6 Prob. of Completion = 0.9028
We enter the following formulas in the spreadsheet above:

Cell D2: =($E$5-B2)/C2
Cell D3: =($E$5-B3)/C3
Cell D4: =($E$5-B4)/C4
Cell E2: =ROUND(NORMSDIST(D2),4)
Cell E6: =ROUND(E2*E3*E4,4)
Note: We will use Cell E5 to enter the desired completion time.
As shown above, the probability of completing the project within 17.29 days is 0.9028, which is less than
0.9500.
From here, we can experiment by entering project completion times greater than 17.29 days until the
value in Cell E6 is close to 0.9500. An alternate approach would be to create a simple Excel Solver model
to solve this. Note: We will carry the project completion time to two decimals.
After experimentation, a project completion time of 18.02 days gives us a probability of project
completion of 0.9501 as shown in the table below.
Column
Row A B C D E

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2 A 10 4 2.005 0.9775
3 B 14 2 2.01 0.9778
4 C 13 2 2.51 0.9940
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Education.
Project duration for Smitty to include in the proposal for a 10% risk of not delivering the project
on time:
This means we would like a 0.9000 probability of completion within the specified time.
We know that when we started with a project completion of 17.29 days above, the probability of
completion was 0.9028 (just above 0.9000).
We can lower the project completion time from 17.29 until the value in Cell E6 is close to 0.9000. As
shown in the table below, a project completion time of 17.26 days provides a probability of completion of
0.9002.
Column
Row A B C D E
2 A 10 4 1.815 0.9652
3 B 14 2 1.63 0.9484
4 C 13 2 2.13 0.9834
Project duration for Smitty to include in the proposal for a 15% risk of not delivering the project
on time:
This means we would like a 0.8500 probability of completion within the specified time.
We know that when we used a project completion of 17.26 days above, the probability of completion was
0.9002.
We can lower the project completion time from 17.26 until the value in Cell E6 is close to 0.8500. As
shown in the table below, a project completion time of 16.78 days provides a probability of completion of
0.8506.
Column
Row A B C D E
2 A 10 4 1.695 0.9550
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3 B 14 2 1.39 0.9177
4 C 13 2 1.89 0.9706
The pros of quoting project times aggressively are the ability to secure new business or to win project
approval.
The cons of quoting project times aggressively are the increased probability of missing the deadline,
which could lead to severe consequences for the project manager.
The pros of quoting project times conservatively are the increased probability of meeting the deadline.
The cons of quoting project times conservatively are the reduced likelihood of being able to secure new
business or to gain project approval.
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Project Management: Solutions

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Project Management: Solutions

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Chapter 17 - Project Management

b. Path Expected Duration

c. Path Expected Duration

Path Expected Duration

b. 1. AOA diagram (All times are in hours)

2. AON diagram (All times are in hours)

Ch 0.6 Lib 2.0 Out 0.4

Write 3.0 Ck 0.5 Sub 0.2

Blank forms to distribute to students if desired:

3a. Bank location.

Weeks after start

b. Solved Problem #2.

Weeks after start

Weeks after start

b. Solved Problem #2.

Weeks after start

4. b. Case 1: Activity on-Arrow Diagram

Case 2: Activity-on-Arrow Diagram

4. c. Case 1: Activity-on-Node Diagram

Case 2: Activity-on-Node Diagram

Note: Slack = LS – ES or LF – EF.

Conclusion: Critical path is 1-3-6-9-11-12. Expected project duration is 31.

Conclusion: Critical path is 1-2-5-7-8-9. Expected project duration is 55.

Path Expected Duration

Expected duration = 6.00 + 8.17 + 6.33 = 20.50

Variance = 4/36 + 25/36 + 16/36 = 45/36

Expected duration = 12.00 + 6.00 + 3.50 = 21.50

Variance = 36/36 + 4/36 + 25/36 = 65/36

Expected duration = 8.50 + 4.17 + 6.83 = 19.50

Variance = 9/36 + 1/36 + 9/36 = 19/36

Specified time −Path mean

Specified time = 24 days or less:

Probability of completion ≤ 24 days = 1.00 (z value > +3.00—treat probability of completion

Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 24 days = 0.9686

Probability of completion ≤ 24 days = 1.00 (z value > +3.00—treat probability of completion

Probability of completion ≤ 24 days = 1.00 x 0.9686 x 1.00 = 0.9686

Specified time = 21 days or less:

Probability of completion ≤ 21 days = 0.6736

Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 21 days = 0.3557

Probability of completion ≤ 21 days = 0.9808

Probability of completion ≤ 21 days = 0.6736 x 0.3557 x 0.9808 = 0.2350

Revised D: te = [5 + (4*6) + 7]/6 = 36/6 = 6.00

In the modified network, the expected times and variances are:

The revised project diagram is:

End 7th1 D (6.00) F (6.00) G (3.50)

Expected duration from start of project = 7 + (8.17 + 6.33) = 21.50

Variance = 25/36 + 16/36 = 41/36

Expected duration from start of project = 7 + (6.00 + 6.00 + 3.50) = 22.50

Variance = 4/36 + 4/36 + 25/36 = 33/36

Expected duration from start of project = 7 + (4.17 + 6.83) = 18.00

Variance = 1/36 + 9/36 = 10/36

Specified time −Path mean

Specified time = 24 days or less:

Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 24 days = 0.9904

Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 24 days = 0.9418

Probability of completion ≤ 24 days = 1.0000 (z value > +3.00—treat probability of

Probability of completion ≤ 24 days = 0.9904 x 0.9418 x 1.0000 = 0.9328

Specified time = 21 days or less:

Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 21 days = 0.3192

Using Appendix B Table B: Probability of completion ≤ 21 days = 0.0582

Probability of completion ≤ 21 days = 1.0000 (z value > +3.00—treat probability of

Probability of completion ≤ 21 days = 0.3192 x 0.0582 x 1.0000 = 0.0186

Activity First Crash Second Crash