Moving Centered Seasonal Seasonal Deseasonalized

2
Year Quarter Sales Average Moving Irregular Index Sales, Yt yt T t tyt t
Average Value
1 4.8 5.16 1
2 4.1 4.88 2
3 6.0 5.350 1.096 = 1 1.09 = q1 5.50 3
1 5.475
4 6.5 5.600 1.133 = 2 1.14= q2 5.70 4
5.738
1 5.8 5.875 0.971 = 3 0.93= q3 6.24 5
5.975
2 5.2 6.075 0.840 = 4 0.84= q4 6.19 6
6.188
2 3 6.8 6.300 1.075 = 1 1.09= q1 6.24 7
6.325
4 7.4 6.350 1.156 = 2 1.14= q2 6.49 8
6.400
1 6.0 6.450 0.918 =3 0.93= q3 6.45 9
6.538
2 5.6 6.625 0.839 = 4 0.84= q4 6.67 10
6.675
3 3 7.5 6.725 1.109 = 1 1.09= q1 6.88 11
6.763
6.800 1.141 = 2 1.14= q2
4 7.8 6.84 12
6.838
6.875 0.908 =3 0.93= q3
1 6.3 6.77 13
6.938
7.000 0.834 = 4 0.84= q4
2 5.9 7.02 14
4 7.075
7.150
3 8.0 7.34 15
4 8.4 7.37 16
Moving Average
(4.8 + 4.1 + 6.0 + 6.5)/4 = 5.350

(4.1 + 6.0 + 6.5 + 5.8)/4 = 5.600

Centered Moving Average

(5.350 + 5.600)/2 = 5.475

(5.600 + 5.875)/2 = 5.738

Seasonal Irregular Value

6.0 / 5.475 = 1.096

6.5 / 5.738 = 1.133

Seasonal Index
(1.096 + 1.075 + 1.109) /3 = 1.09

(1.133 + 1.156 + 1.141) /3 = 1.14

(0.971 + 0.918 + 0.908) /3 = 0.93

(0.840 + 0.839 + 0.8340/3 = 0.84

Deseasonalized Value
4.8 / 0.93 = 5.16

4.1 / 0.84 = 4.88

Formula
 Y=
∑ yt
12

 T=
∑t
12
 βo=¿ Y – β1 T
 β 1=¿ ¿