IB Psychology Internal Assessment

Investigation on the Anchoring Effect

Level: Standard level

IB candidate code:

IB candidate code for all group members:

Date of submission:

Number of words: 2200

IB Psychology Internal Assessment

Table of Contents

INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................... 1

EXPLORATION............................................................................................................................ 2

ANALYSIS..................................................................................................................................... 4

EVALUATION............................................................................................................................... 7

REFERENCES............................................................................................................................... 9

APPENDIX I................................................................................................................................ 10

APPENDIX II............................................................................................................................... 12

APPENDIX III............................................................................................................................. 14

APPENDIX IV............................................................................................................................. 15

APPENDIX V............................................................................................................................... 16

APPENDIX VI............................................................................................................................. 18
IB Psychology Internal Assessment

Introduction
Many psychology models are used to predict and analyze how people make a decision based

on information they perceived in their daily life. Heuristics are a spiritual abbreviation that

allows a person to make quick decisions and solve problems with minimal mental effort.

They can reduce the burden of decision making and free up limited cognitive resources, but

they can also cause errors and ultimately lead to cognitive bias. Anchor bias was an example

theorized by Tversky and Kahneman (1974). It proposed that people's decisions tend to be

overly dependent on the first information provided (the "anchor"). Other judgments are made

by adjusting away from the anchor once it has been set, and there is a bias toward interpreting

information around the anchor. For example, the initial price offered for a used car sets the

bar for the rest of the negotiations, making lower prices appear more reasonable even if they

are higher than the car's true value.

Therefore, our study aims to test the anchoring effect to determine whether low or high

anchoring (number) affects young international students' estimates of the percentage of

African countries in the United Nations. This investigation can provide guidance for high

school teachers to set reasonable goals for their students. Once they set specific and

challenging goals, their students are more likely to do better than those who set weaker or

ambiguous goals. This is because they have strong motivation and willingness to achieve

anchor points.

Research by Tversky and Kahnman (1974) investigated the impact of anchoring bias on

decision making. Participants in the study were asked to estimate the percentage of African

countries in the United Nations. Their anchor point was a number between 0 and 100 decided

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by each participant spinning a wheel of fortune. The study's findings revealed a link between

the anchor they were given and their estimated ultimate percentage value. This suggests that

the arbitrary numbers on the fortune wheel had significant effect on the estimations of the

participants, which supports the theory of anchoring bias since people made a judgment on

the percentage based on the number they received. Our study only replicated the critical

question of this study because the participants may not have enough background knowledge

of the question. So, this variable could be easily controlled during the experiment.

The independent variable is the value of the anchor, high (55%) or low (10%), expressed

numerically. The dependent variable is the respondent's rating of the proportion of African

countries at the United Nations after receiving the anchor, also expressed numerically.

The research hypothesis is that participants who receive a high anchor give a significant

higher estimate of the proportion of African countries in the United Nations than participants

who receive a low anchor. Participants will choose their anchors randomly from an opaque

box which included 22 papers, and 11 of them were written 55% and 11 of them were written

10%.

The null hypothesis is there is no significant difference between high or low anchor values. in

numbers and international high school students' estimations of the percentage of the African

countries in the UN.

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Exploration
An independent measure design was used to minimize the order effects and demand

characteristics. All group members participanted in both control and experimental conditions.

Order effects were avoided by instructing individuals to complete the experiment only once,

thus they were less likely to become exhausted or experience practice effects. The sample

was made up of two English classes, with 30 A-level students from senior one who did not

learn the content of IB Psychology beforehand. As a result, the purpose of the study could not

be inferred during the experiment, which helped to prevent demand characteristics. Besides,

since the questions were written both in English and participants’ native language, the

English proficiency of the participants would not influence participants’ estimations. For the

sampling technique, opportunity sampling was used because of its convenience and time-

saving feature. Since we are high school students, it is easier for us to recruit participants

from campus during their spare time.

We looked at the real value of African countries in the United Nations, which is 28%, and

wrote down the high and low anchor on twenty small papers. We set high Anchor to 55% and

low Anchor to 10%, which are reasonable values that can unconsciously deviate participants'

evaluation of the real percentage. Each paper was stored using an opaque plastic box, and the

number was hidden by folding the sheet so that participants could not see it when they

removed it. Each participant in the experimental group may only remove one high or low

folded sheet of paper from the box. Since the amount of high and low anchor papers on the

box is the same, the anchors are randomly distributed.

To prevent demand characteristics, we asked participants to sit at least 60 cm away from each

other and keep silent during the experiment. Those instructions were designed to make sure
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that participants from two groups would not communicate with each other and were able to

figure out the purpose of our research. All participants in both experimental groups were

asked to write anchors at the top of a questionnaire. Experimenters avoided the investigator

effect because they did not know who belonged to which group until participants submitted

their answers.

For the design of questionnaires (Appendix III), we used the same two critical questions as

the original study because the test results of the original study were significant, which

directly support the theory of anchoring effect. However, we added another three distracting

questions that aimed to blur the real purpose of our study. Also, to make sure that no

participant has previous knowledge of the anchoring effect and the percentage we tested, we

asked participants to finish the background survey (Appendix IV).

All participants were over 16 years old; they signed the consent form (Appendix II) on their

own and the report (Appendix V) on the study was distributed at the end of the study.

Analysis
To investigate the differences in participant scores between the high and low anchor groups,

data were collected from participants’ answers on the critical question of the questionnaire

and the mean and standard were calculated from the experiments.

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Table 1. Descriptive analysis of data

The table above presented the data that we assessed from the raw data we collected

(Appendix VI(i)), which contained the mean, median, standard deviation, and range of two

experimental groups. The mean is chosen to measure the central tendency of the data set,

which embodied all values in a group and was able to provide the average of it. The average

was 23.91 in the low anchor group and 48 in the high anchor group. This tendency could

confirm our hypothesis that demonstrated that the high and low anchors may play an

important role in influencing participants’ judgment on the percentage of African countries in

the UN. Moreover, we used standard deviation to measure how spread out the data was.

Considering the range of the data was 0 to 100, the standard deviation of both experimental

groups was relatively large, indicating that the data dispersed to a greater extent. Also, the

value of standard deviation was closed to each other. With the calculation of InterQuartile

Range (Appendix IV(ii)), the outliers do not exist to distort the mean value of our data.

Therefore, the median in the table does not need to be taken into account in considering the

results. Additionally, the difference of starting point of high anchor (20%) and low anchor

(5%) groups demonstrated that participants who received higher anchor would give a higher

estimation of the percentage, which strengthens our hypothesis.

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Graph 1. The comparison of the mean percentage estimation of the two groups

As can be seen from the graph, the hypothesis of the study was confirmed because the high

anchor group had a clearly higher estimate of the proportion of African countries in the UN

compared to that of the low anchor group.

For the inferential statistics, we decided to test the significance of the data using the Mann-

Whitney U test ( Appendix VI (iii)). This was performed because our data embodied

relatively small samples, and they were not normally distributed. Since the requirement for

the significance was 0.05, our data could be seen as significant because the p-value was

0.0107 for a one-tailed test. We were therefore able to reject the null hypothesis and provide

strong evidence to support our hypothesis that participants with higher anchor would provide

higher estimates of the proportion of African countries in the UN. However, due to the large

standard deviation of our data, we need to be cautious about the Type II error that may occur,

and we should aware that the relationship may not truly be significant.

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Evaluation
The results of the study demonstrated that the high and low values of anchors do influence

participants’ estimations of the percentage of African countries in the UN, which supported

the theory of anchoring effect that people were distracted by anchoring bias while making

decisions. The higher the value of anchor, the higher the estimation of the percentage of

participants. The medians of their study were greater than that of our study, which may due to

the differences between the anchors. The anchors in their study were ranged from 0 to 100,

and the starting point of their low anchor group was 10% and high anchor group was 65%.

While our anchors only had two values, 55% for the high anchor and 10% for the low anchor

group. In addition, because we used independent measure designs, individual differences may

affect the final results, as some participants may know more about the African countries at the

UN so that they would not be distracted by the anchor points we give.

Our strength is that we have created an opque box so that the participants can get their

anchors randomly without telling the testers specific numbers, this is very helpful in avoiding

expectancy effect. Besides, the anchors were written on the small papers and were folded

inside the box, so it is better to prevent demand characteristics since participants cannot see

others’ numbers. However, since the testers distributed the anchors to each participant one by

one, the participants were able to converse with each other about how much they got when

the tester was not paying attention. Additionally, participants may feel fatigued during the

experiment because they were just finished their last class, so they may reluctant to follow the

rules set by us. We could adjust the procedure to assign more instructors to avoid the

communitication between partipants. Besides, we can play soothing music to help

participants relax and reduce stress. Since our participants were only constituted by high

school students, their results may unable to apply to more groups of people.
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Moreover, because we distributed the rules to them on paper so that they may not have

enough patience to read it thoroughly. If we provide them with a PowerPoint and a recording

about the rules of the experiment, participants may become more aware of the rules and will

be more focused on the study.

Another strength of the study was related to its double-blind design. Participants would be

allocated into a high anchor or low anchor group randomly via choosing small papers from

the opaque box. Demand characteristics will less likely happen because participants only take

the test for one time. Besides, we printed out the same version of the material for each

participant during the study. This would be time-saving for us to carry out the study.

A limitation of the study was due to the confined diversity of our sample. We only recruited

participants from one high school who were at the same level and studying the same course.

Participants were all international students so that they may know more about the African

countries and United Nations through their study. Besides, we have participants who came

from the Model United Nation club so they may know the percentage beforehand, which

indicated that they may less likely to be distracted by the anchor they received. Therefore, we

should recruit participants from more diverse vocations and backgrounds to improve this

situation, like doctors, teachers, social workers to ensure that our findings are applicable for a

wider population.

Another limitation of the study may due to the external factors that may distract participants’

attention during the experiment. Participants' performance in the experiment may have been

affected by the fact that their school was in construction and the bell rang during the

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experiment. The testing effect may also influence participants' estimations of the percentage

because some participants responded verbally that they felt nervous when sitting in a

classroom setting. To avoid the interruptions above, we could finish the study in school labs

and distribute participants into separate rooms, conducting the study for each participants

individually. Also, we could control the sound equipment so that it would not provide

disturbing sound during the experiment.

According to the analysis above, we were able to conclude that high anchor leads to higher

participants’ estimations than that of low anchor, confirming the anchoring effect.

References

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974, September 27). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics

and biases. Science. https://science.sciencemag.org/content/185/4157/1124.abstract.

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Appendix I

INSTRUCTION

Dear participants,

Welcome!

This is a psychology experiment in which you will need to follow the four steps listed below.
It will only take you 10 minutes and you don’t have to be nervous. Just be relaxed, because
what you are essentially going to do is to make a draw from an opaque (non-transparent)
box and answer 5 questions about the general knowledge of African countries.

The four steps you will need to follow in the experiment:

1.After you have decided that you will take part in this experiment, you will need sign a
consent form (the second material you are holding right now). Detail information is listed in
the form.

2.You will then need to take a draw from a non-transparent box provided by the
experimenters. you will need to remember a two-digit number on the paper and the
experimenters will take back the paper.

3.You will then need to answer a questionnaire consisting of five questions

4.After filling up the questions, the experimenters will take back the questionnaire and you
will provide with a debriefing form, which is an explanation of this experiment.

NOTE

1.During the experiment you will need to follow the instructions of experimenters and
remain silence throughout the experiment.

2.This experiment is voluntary, meaning that you can withdraw at any time during the
experiment.

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实验指示

欢迎大家的参与!

你先在正在参加一个心理学实验，你需要按照下面的四个步骤进行。只需要 10 分钟，
你不必紧张。只要放轻松就好，因为你要做的基本上就是从一个不透明（非透明）的
盒子里进行抽签，然后回答 5 个关于非洲国家的问题。

实验中你需要遵循的四个步骤：

1. 在你决定参加这个实验后，你需要签署一份同意书（就是你现在拿着的第二份材
料）。详细信息在同意书中列出。

2. 然后你需要从实验人员提供的一个非透明的盒子里抽签，并在纸条上记住一个两位
数的数字，实验人员会在你看到所抽到的数字后收回纸条。

3. 然后，你需要回答一份由五个问题组成的调查问卷

4. 填写完问题后，实验人员会收回问卷，你会得到一份汇报表，是对本次实验的说明。

注意事项：

1.在实验过程中，你需要听从实验人员的指示，你可以问实验人员任何问题但不能与
他人交流。

2.这个实验是自愿性的，也就是说你可以在实验过程中随时退出。

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Appendix II

IB Psychology Informed Consent Form

In order to participate in this research study, it is necessary that you give your informed
consent.
By signing this informed consent form, you are indicating that you understand the nature of
the research study and your role in that research and that you agree to participate in the
research. Please consider the following points before signing:

 I understand that I am participating in psychological research;

 I understand that my participation will be anonymous (that is, my name will not be

linked with my data) and that all information I provide will remain confidential;

 I understand that I will be provided with an explanation of the research in which I

participated and be given the name and contact information of an individual if I have

questions about the research.

 I understand that I may contact the experimenters xxx, if I have questions concerning my

rights as a participant in psychological research.

 I understand that participation in research is not required, is voluntary, and that, after any

individual research project has begun, I may refuse to participate further (withdraw)

without penalty.

By signing this form, I am stating that I am not 16 years of age and so parental

permission is required and that I understand the above information and consent to participate

in this study being conducted at xxx by IB Psychology students.

Signature: ______________________________________ Date: ___________________

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(Participant over 16)

Print First Name: _____________________Print Last Name: _________________________

Parent/Guardian Signature: ____________________Date: ___________________

(Participant below 16)

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Appendix III

Questionnaire

1. Can you estimate whether the number you have is higher or lower than the percentage of
African countries in the United Nations?
你认为你所抽到的数字与联合国中非洲国家的百分比相比大还是小？

Larger / smaller

2. Could you estimate the exact percentage of African countries in the United Nations?
你认为非洲国家在联合国中所占的百分比是多少？

____%

3. Could you recite five African countries that is a member of the United Nations? If not, try
to recite any.
你可以复述出五个是联合国成员国的非洲国家吗？如果不行，请尝试复述。

______, ______, ______, ______, ______

4. Could you name any capitals of these African countries?

你可以复述出这些非洲国家的首都吗？

______, ______, ______, ______, ______

5. Did you have any African friends?

你是否有任何来自非洲的朋友？

Yes / No

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Appendix IV

Background survey
*Click ONLY one answer for each question.

1.Have you learned the course of psychology?

Yes / No

2.Do you know the concept of anchoring effect?

Yes / No

3.Have you guessed the true aim of our experiment during the experimental process?
Yes / No

4.Do you have happened to know the exact percentage of African countries in the United
Nations before the experiment?
Yes / No

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Appendix V

DEBRIEFING FORM

Thank you for taking part in this research on the Anchor effect!

Please read the material on this form carefully to learn important information
about your experience in this study and ask me any questions that you have. After
this debriefing, you may choose to have information I collected about you removed
from this research study.

For this study, it was important that we withhold some information from you about
some aspects of the study. Now that your participation is completed, we will describe what
information was withheld and why. we will also answer any of your questions and give you
the opportunity to decide whether you would like to have your data included in this study
or removed from it.

What You Should Know About This Study

Before you started participating in this research, you were told that the purpose of the
study was to research how much do you know about African countries. However, the
actual purpose of the study was to test the influence of *anchoring bias on decision-
making. We did not tell you the true purpose of the study because it was important that
your responses were spontaneous and not influenced by having this information.

* Anchoring bias: is the tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information
offered (the "anchor") when making decisions.

Your Right to Withdraw Data

Now that you know the true purpose of this research study, you may decide whether you
want to have your data removed from the study or not. If you choose to have your data
removed, the answers in the questionnaires. There will be no penalties or negative
consequences for you if you withdraw from the study. Before making your decision,
please ask me any questions you have.

Confidentiality
Whether you allow your data to be used in this study or not, please remember that
the integrity of this research depended on keeping some of the details from you and the
other participants.

Therefore, it is important that you do not tell anyone else about the details of this
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study until after today, when our collection of data from other participants will be complete.
Although the purpose of this study is different from what was originally explained to you,
everything else on the consent form is correct. we will keep all information we have about
you completely confidential, including your decision about whether to withdraw from the
study.

If You Have Any Questions or Concerns

Please keep a copy of this Debriefing Form for future reference. If you have any questions
or concerns about this study and the research procedures used, you may contact us at xxx.
In case you experience any adverse effects that you feel result from being in this study,
please contact us. We are also willing giving you a list of counseling services where you
may obtain help with any anxiety or discomfort you might experience.

To be completed by Participant
My signature below indicates that I have read and understand the information in
this debriefing form, and (select one)
I give permission for the data collected from or about me to be included in the study.
I DO NOT give permission for the data collected from or about me to be included
in the study.

Print name of participant

Signature of participant Date

To be completed by Researcher
I confirm that the participant named above has been given an opportunity to ask
questions about the study, and all the questions asked by the participant have been
answered to the best of my knowledge and ability. A copy of this Debriefing Form has
been provided to the participant.

Print name of investigator

Signature of investigator Date

Appendix VI

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(i) Raw data

Participants Low anchor group High anchor group

1 5 20

2 40 38

3 60 70

4 15 20

5 20 65

6 8 30

7 15 30

8 40 30

9 5 70

10 15 80

11 40 75

Mean 23.91 48.00

Standard Deviation 17.32 23.77

(ii) IQR Range of data

High anchor group Low anchor group

Minimum 20 5

Q1 30 8

Median 38 15

Q2 70 40

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Maximum 80 60

IQR 40 32

(InterQuartile

Range)

Lower boundary -30 -40

Higher boundary 140 88

(iii) Mann Whitney U test results

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