1961 1971 1981

Leaders (South and West)

Tamil Nadu 56.8 56.5 58.6
Karnataka 52.1 51.5 53.9
Gujarat 52.2 51.7 55.3
Simple Average 53.7 53.2 55.9
Working Age Ratio
Laggards (Heartland)
Bihar 52.1 51.5 51.5
Madhya Pradesh 54 50.5 52.3
Uttar Pradesh 53.2 51.4 51.5
Simple Average 53.1 51.1 51.8
1961-71 1971-81 1981-91
Leaders (South and West)
Tamil Nadu -0.06 0.36 0.64
Karnataka -0.13 0.45 0.71
Gujarat -0.10 0.67 0.61
Working Age Simple Average -0.10 0.49 0.65
Ration Average
Annual Growth Rate (%) Laggards (Heartland)
Bihar -0.11 0.00 0.40
Madhya Pradesh -0.68 0.35 0.54
Uttar Pradesh -0.35 0.02 0.41
Simple Average -0.38 0.12 0.45
1961-71 1971-81 1981-91
Leaders (South and West)
Tamil Nadu 0.4 0.1 4.1
Karnataka 2.0 0.7 3.0
Gujarat 1.9 0.8 3.1
Per Capita Income Average Simple Average 1.4 0.5 3.4
Annual Growth Rate 9%) Laggards (Heartland)
Bihar 0.3 0.6 2.7
Madhya Pradesh -0.5 0.6 2.2
Uttar Pradesh 0.7 0.7 2.6
Simple Average 0.2 0.6 2.5

Table 2: Demoghraphic Evolution & Income Growth in Selected States

(in percentage)
Using projections from 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030
Census of India 2001 2.02 2.04 2.16
United Nations Populations 1.6 1.95 2.27 2.1
Division
US Census Bureau 1.62 1.93 1.69 1.15
Average 1.7 2.0 2.0 1.6

Source: Census of India; United Nations Population Division; US Census Bureau; and authors' calculations.
Notes: *Calculates the increment to annual per capita income growth relative to a counterfactual in which
the working age ration stays fixed at the 2001 level.
* 2021-2026 for projections from the Census of India

Table 3: India's Demographic Dividend by Decade Including Projectsions

 1991 2001

62.4 64.4
57.8 60.4
58.8 60.3
59.7 61.7

53.6 52.1
55.3 54.8
53.7 52.3
54.2 53.1
1991-2001

0.31
0.44
0.28
0.34

-0.29
-0.09
-0.26
-0.21
1991-2001

5.1
6.0
3.6
4.9

-0.1
1.1
0.8
0.6

percentage) Demoghraphic Evoluti on

2040s
2.5
2
percentage

1.17 1.5
1
0.57 0.5
0.9 0
2000s 2010s 2020s 2030 2040s
Using projections from
authors' calculations.
ounterfactual in which
Census of India 2001 United Nations Populations Division
US Census Bureau Average