Version 1

1. [5 Marks] There are six restaurants in a university campus. Four students from a class independently choose a
restaurant each to have lunch. Assume the six restaurants are equally likely to be chosen by a student. What is the
probability that
(a) [2 Marks] All four students choose different restaurants?
Total choices: 64. Among them, all choose different restaurants in 6543 ways.
Hence, required probability = 6543/64 = 60/216 = 5/18 = 0.2778.
(b) [3 Marks] Two students choose the same restaurant, and the other two choose two other restaurants?
The two students choosing the same restaurant can be chosen in 4C2 ways. Their choice of restaurant can be chosen in 6
ways, and the other two students can choose their restaurants in 54 ways.
Hence, required probability = 4C2654/64 = 20/36 = 5/9 = 0.5556.
Note: following are the counts: All different: 6x5x4x3;Exactly two same: 4C2x6x5x4;Exactly 3 same: 4C3x6x5;Two
same and two same: 4C2x6C2; All same: 6

2. [7 Marks] Jignesh has applied a month back for a job at Findbush, an IT company, but has not heard back from them
yet. He has got to know that Findbush does not inform rejected candidates, but also that sometimes their HR misplaces
the interview call letters (so the candidates do not hear back despite being selected for interview), while there could also
be a delay in case of further scrutiny of the application. From the past data, for someone with Jignesh’s profile, the
chances of being rejected (without further scrutiny) by Findbush is 40%, being selected for an interview (without further
scrutiny) is 30% and being subjected to further scrutiny is 30%. 10% interview call letters are misplaced by the HR.
(a) [3 Marks] Given that Jignesh has not heard back, what is the chance that he is selected for an interview call?
(b) [4 Marks] Mirium has a similar profile as Jignesh, (so we can assume the probabilities under consideration are the
same for her). She has also applied around the same time, and she has also not heard anything. Given this information
(that none of them has heard back), what is the chance that at least one of them is selected for an interview call?
Note: It should be clear that all the statements are about present. So, if Jignesh (Mirium) is being scrutinised, at present
he (she) is not selected.
P(Jignesh has not heard back) = P(Jignesh is not selected) + P(Jignesh selected, letter lost) = 0.4+0.3+0.30.1 = 0.73
P(Jignesh not heard back, selected) = 0.30.1 = 0.03.
Ans (a): P(Jignesh Selected | Jignesh has not heard back) = 0.03/0.73 = 0.0411.
P(None heard back) = 0.732
P(None is selected) = (0.4+0.3)2 = 0.72
P(None selected | None heard back) = 0.72/0.732
Ans (b): P(At least one selected | None heard back) = 1 – 0.72/0.732 = 0.0805.

3. [8 Marks] Among a state’s population, 15% live in the capital city, another 15% live in other cities, while the
remaining 70% population live in rural areas. 40% of the population in the capital city hold an undergraduate degree,
80% among them (the undergraduate degree holders) being taxpayers. The proportion of undergraduate degree holders
for the other cities is 30% and for the rural areas is 15%. The percentage of taxpayers among undergraduates in the other
cities is double of the percentage of taxpayers among undergraduates for the rural areas, while in the whole state overall,
60% of the undergraduate degree holders are taxpayers.
(a) [5 Marks] What percentage of the rural undergraduate degree holders are taxpayers?
(b) [3 Marks] If 10% of the non-undergraduate degree holders in the state are taxpayers, what percentage of the state’s
population are taxpayers?
0.7: Proportion of rural → 0.15: proportion of undergrads → y: proportion of taxpayers (say)
0.15: Proportion of OC (other cities) → 0.3: proportion of undergrads → 2y: proportion of taxpayers
0.15: Proportion of CC (central city) → 0.4: proportion of undergrads → 0.8: proportion of taxpayers

Total proportion of undergraduate taxpayers = 0.70.15y+0.150.32y+0.150.40.8 = 0.195y + 0.048

But it is also = (0.70.15+0.150.3+0.150.4)0.6 = 0.126
Hence, 0.195y+0.048 = 0.126 → y = 0.4
(a) 40% of rural undergraduates are taxpayers.
(b) Total proportion of taxpayers = 0.126+ (1-(0.70.15+0.150.3+0.150.4))0.1 = 0.205 → 20.5%
Version 2

4. [5 Marks] There are seven restaurants in a university campus. Four students from a class independently choose a
restaurant each to have lunch. Assume the seven restaurants are equally likely to be chosen by a student. What is the
probability that
(a) [2 Marks] All four students choose different restaurants?
Total choices: 74. Among them, all choose different restaurants in 7654 ways.
Hence, required probability = 7654/74 = 120/343 = 0.3499.
(b) [3 Marks] Two students choose the same restaurant, and the other two choose two other restaurants?
The two students choosing the same restaurant can be chosen in 4C2 ways. Their choice of restaurant can be chosen in 7
ways, and the other two students can choose their restaurants in 65 ways.
Hence, required probability = 4C2765/74 = 180/343 = 0.5248.
Note: following are the counts: All different: 7654; Exactly two same: 4C2765; Exactly 3 same: 4C376; Two
same and two same: 4C2x7C2; All same: 7

5. [7 Marks] Jignesh has applied a month back for a job at Findbush, an IT company, but has not heard back from them
yet. He has got to know that Findbush does not inform rejected candidates, but also that sometimes their HR misplaces
the interview call letters (so the candidates do not hear back despite being selected for interview), while there could also
be a delay in case of further scrutiny of the application. From the past data, for someone with Jignesh’s profile, the
chances of being rejected (without further scrutiny) by Findbush is 35%, being selected for an interview (without further
scrutiny) is 40% and being subjected to further scrutiny is 25%. 10% interview call letters are misplaced by the HR.
(a) [3 Marks] Given that Jignesh has not heard back, what is the chance that he is selected for an interview call?
(b) [4 Marks] Mirium has a similar profile as Jignesh, (so we can assume the probabilities under consideration are the
same for her). She has also applied around the same time, and she has also not heard anything. Given this information
(that none of them has heard back), what is the chance that at least one of them is selected for an interview call?
Note: It should be clear that all the statements are about present. So, if Jignesh (Mirium) is being scrutinised, at present
he (she) is not selected.
P(Jignesh has not heard back) = P(Jignesh is not selected) + P(Jignesh selected, letter lost) = 0.35+0.25+0.40.1 = 0.64
P(Jignesh not heard back, selected) = 0.40.1 = 0.04.
Ans (a): P(Jignesh Selected | Jignesh has not heard back) = 0.04/0.64 = 0.0625.
P(None heard back) = 0.642
P(None is selected) = (0.35+0.25)2 = 0.62
P(None selected | None heard back) = 0.62/0.642
Ans (b): P(At least one selected | None heard back) = 1 – 0.62/0.642 = 0.1211.

6. [8 Marks] Among a state’s population, 15% live in the capital city, another 15% live in other cities, while the
remaining 70% population live in rural areas. 40% of the population in the capital city hold an undergraduate degree,
80% among them (the undergraduate degree holders) being taxpayers. The proportion of undergraduate degree holders
for the other cities is 30% and for the rural areas is 15%. The percentage of taxpayers among undergraduates in the other
cities is double of the percentage of taxpayers among undergraduates for the rural areas, while in the whole state overall,
60% of the undergraduate degree holders are taxpayers.
(a) [5 Marks] What percentage of the rural undergraduate degree holders are taxpayers?
(b) [3 Marks] If 20% of the non-undergraduate degree holders in the state are taxpayers, what percentage of the state’s
population are taxpayers?
0.7: Proportion of rural → 0.15: proportion of undergrads → y: proportion of taxpayers (say)
0.15: Proportion of OC (other cities) → 0.3: proportion of undergrads → 2y: proportion of taxpayers
0.15: Proportion of CC (central city) → 0.4: proportion of undergrads → 0.8: proportion of taxpayers

Total proportion of undergraduate taxpayers = 0.70.15y+0.150.32y+0.150.40.8 = 0.195y + 0.048

But it is also = (0.70.15+0.150.3+0.150.4)0.6 = 0.126
Hence, 0.195y+0.048 = 0.126 → y = 0.4
Ans. (a) 40% of rural undergraduates are taxpayers.
Ans. (b) Total proportion of taxpayers = 0.126+ (1-(0.70.15+0.150.3+0.150.4))0.2 = 0.284 → 28.4%