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Report Overview
Mobile robots can be an excellent solution to many issues in the logistics industry. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of
major players, technologies, and markets, 20-year market forecasts, and abundant product examples of 14 different forms of mobile
robots in logistics. It will help readers have a deeper understanding of the current market landscape, how the technologies are used, the
technology trend, and the future market outlook. Automation in the warehousing and logistics chain is a growing market. A particularly
exciting subset of this is the use of mobile robots, autonomous vehicles, and drones for automation of movement-based tasks. This field
encompasses all manner of mobile robotic devices used in logistics, such as robotic carts/vehicles, on-road autonomous trucks, and
drones, which help goods in their journey from origin to destination. This report finds that the market for mobile robots (including trucks
and drones) in logistics, delivery and warehousing is likely to reach a staggering $83 and $334 Billion in 2032 and 2042, respectively.
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of major players, technologies, and markets. It covers relatively mature and emerging
logistics mobile robotic products including different forms of automated guided vehicles (AGVs), autonomous mobile robots (AMRs), grid-
based automated guided carts (grid-based carts), case-picking robots, mobile manipulators, heavy-duty level-4 autonomous trucks, last
mile autonomous delivery vans, robots and drones.
This report provides technology roadmaps and twenty-year market forecasts in market revenue, for all the technologies outlined above
(14 forecast lines). The forecasts are built as a twenty-year model because IDTechEx’s technology roadmap suggests that these changes
will take place over long timescales. In IDTechEx’s detailed forecasts the different stages of market growth are clearly explained, and the
key assumptions/conditions as well as data points that underpin the model are outlined.
Table of Contents: Summary
1. Executive Summary – 24 slides

2. Mobile Robotics in Logistics: Introduction and Overview – 19 slides
3. Intralogistics Material Transporting Robots – 86 slides
4. Mobile Picking Robots – 35 slides
5. Heavy-duty Level-4 Autonomous Trucks – 35 slides
6. Autonomous Last Mile Delivery Robots and Drones – 78 slides
7. Forecast summary – 15 slides
For the full table of contents please see www.IDTechEx.com/mobile
How can mobile robots be used in logistics?
Forecast numbers – intralogistics transporting robots
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Forecast numbers – other products and the sum of
market revenue
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Mobile robots vs. fixed automation Advantages
Disadvantages
Mobile Robots Fixed Automation

Fixed automation usually takes months to be installed
It usually can take 2-6 weeks to install AGV/Cs. For
Installation and to commission. The installation is also very labour-
AMRs the installation time can be shorter.
consuming.
A large amount of up-front capital is required to

The overall cost of implementing mobile robots should be
implement fixed automation. And installation,
much less than that of fixed automation. And the Cost maintenance and powering also cost more. But final
maintenance and operation cost should be lower.
return of investment (ROI) will be higher in the long term.
The fixed automation allows continuous material
The productivity per day should be much higher than
transportation, but the capacity of mobile robots is highly
manual operation. But the efficiency is not comparable to Efficiency restricted with the size of fleet. So the efficiency of fixed
that of fixed automation.
automation should be much higher.
Mobile robotic systems are much more flexible than fixed
automation. Even though AGV/Cs need the support of Usually not flexible. Changing the configuration can cost
infrastructure, changing of the infrastructure is much Flexibility much money and time.
easier than re-installing fixed automation.
Once the fixed automation is installed, it is hard to scale

The fleet size can be easily scaled up and down. Scalability the size or capability.
Acquisition
Since 2014, big technology or engineering companies have been acquiring mobile robot start-ups. Here are some notable acquisitions in
recent years.
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Acquired start-up Large tech or engineering company
Grid-based automated guided carts (grid-based AGC)
The grid-based AGCs were first introduced into the market around 2002 by Kiva and RMT Robotics. They are also largely guided by following a fixed
infrastructure of guideposts, which are regularly-placed barcode/QR code grid with sometimes the combination of magnetic strips (there are few exceptions such
as the ones being developed by Hitachi). So they can be considered as a form of AGVs.
However, they are so distinct from traditional AGVs that some people usually think them as a different product type. They are distinct in that (1) they usually carry
shelves but not totes, baskets, containers or pallets; (2) in many cases, they work together in a compact storage area separated from other human worker zones
(not collaborative), and the compact packing is enabled by the functioning mode - they travel underneath the shelves so they are considerably space-saving; (3)
the installation of barcode/QR code grid on the floor requires much more precision than traditional guidance infrastructure; (4) they completely alter the workflow
of a distribution centre because they transport the shelves to pickers, and the warehouse operation needs to be designed around them.
The role of these robots is to rapidly bring the appropriate shelf to a human packer positioned at a fixed station so that the human picker can create a multi-item
package (goods-to-person). This means that robots only perform the shelf transport operation whilst dexterous humans do the picking. This enables the
appropriate type of rapid fulfilment for e-commerce orders where customers are likely to order a package consisting of several items.
Interest in this approach was sparked when Amazon acquired the pioneer, Kiva, for $775m in 2012, leaving behind a market gap. Since then numerous other
similar companies have emerged globally (e.g., China, India, etc.) to fill the gap, making this one of hot areas in warehouse mobile robotics.
Geek+ GreyOrange Quicktron Scallog Amazon Robotics
Players – Leading Companies for AGVs
Red: Forklift Companies
Blue: Intralogistics Automation Companies The company has
Black: Only AGV companies this type of product
* Companies ranked by revenue of AGVs
AGV Market Share by Product Types
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ASTI: acquired by ABB in July 2021
The acquisition, thought as a key part external growth strategy by
ABB, was signed on 19th July 2021 and was expected to close in
mid-summer 2021. Both parties agreed not to disclose any
details regarding the purchase price. ABB and ASTI offer deep
domain expertise in manufacturing industries including
automotive, food & beverage and consumer packaged goods, as
well as in new growth segments including logistics, e-commerce,
retail and healthcare.
With this acquisition, ABB will be the only company to offer a full
automation portfolio of AMRs, robots and machine automation
solutions, from production to logistics to point of consumption.
This makes ABB more competitive in the market. The ASTI
acquisition is likely to be customer-driven, and it seems almost
certain that some of ABB’s major industrial customers are already
moving fast to implement mobile robots as part of flexible
production set-ups on their manufacturing lines. The acquisition
sends a strong signal to the market, and ABB’s major
competitors, such as Fanuc and Yaskawa, are likely to follow to
develop or invest in mobile robot technologies and products.
ASTI’s headquarter in Burgos, Spain will become ABB’s AMR business headquarters, led by Veronica Pascual Boé, ASTI CEO, with core
functions continuing at ASTI’s facilities. ABB will significantly expand production capacity at the AMR business headquarter to support the
planned sales expansion in Europe and the Americas. To facilitate the growth potential for AMRs in China and Asia, ABB will also establish an
Asia AMR hub, including full value chain and manufacturing, at its new robotics factory, which will open in Shanghai in 2022.
Comparison: grid-based AGCs and multi-layer case-
picking robots *Pictures on the left are grid-based AGCs while
-- advantages -- disadvantages
those on the right are multi-layer case-picking robots
The “carton-to-person” working mode of case-picking robots has similarities and differences to the “shelf-to-person” one of grid-based AGCs. In this and the
following slides, these two modes will be compared to show their strengths and weaknesses, in order to demonstrate that they can be suitable for different
scenarios. Since the multi-layer case-picking robot is the mainstream product in the current market, the discussion will be based on its features instead of some
special forms of case-picking robots (e.g., the robots and systems of Exotec).
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Navigation technologies of case-picking robots
The navigation of tall multi-layer case-
Share of products by navigation technologies picking robots is normally achieved by the
matrix code (QR code or DM code) with
on the current market
the aid of other guidance technologies
(IMU or laser reflectors). While smaller
robots tend to use SLAM as the major
navigation technology so as to be more
flexible in route planning and less time-
consuming for system installation. Since
the majority of product types on the current
market are multi-layer ones that can reach
high space, matrix code guidance is the
most widely used navigation technologies
for case-picking robots.
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Similar to material transporting AGVs and AMRs discussed in last chapter, case-picking robots use
infrastructure guidance because they are required to pick cases more precisely and reliably at high places.
With the development of SLAM technologies, the case-picking robots will similarly rely less on
infrastructure guidance and can gradually depend only on SLAM and machine vision. But this process
may take longer than the transition from AGVs to AMRs, because when picking between shelves it is
harder to accurately localise themselves for robots, as the each position is very similar to the other in the
environment if surrounded by shelving.
Pain points in the trucking industry
In a previous era, heavy-duty long-haul trucking was a reliable, high-paying job in
many regions. But increasing numbers of people have moved to cities, and
attitudes towards work-travel have changed.
The major pain-points in the trucking industry, and especially long-haul trucking,
include high operation cost, driver management and safety.
According to the American Trucking Association (ATA), the US trucking industry is
currently experiencing a shortfall of approximately 60,000 truck drivers, a shortage
that could increase to 160,000 drivers by 2028. ATA estimates the trucking industry
will need to hire 110,000 new drivers annually to meet anticipated demand. It is
increasingly difficult to find drivers who are willing to spend months on the road
away from their families, particularly among younger generations. The driver
shortage has a significant impact on rising freight transportation costs for US
goods. The shortage in drivers will further increase the operation cost of trucking
companies.
In the past years we have seen a boom in the logistics industry, at the cost of long
working hours for drivers. According to statistics from G7, the largest commercial
vehicle management platform in China, there is a major vehicle accident in every
25 logistic vehicles per year. Using autonomous long-haul trucks has the potential
to reduce the number of accidents as the autonomous driving systems will not be
distracted and can allow a more efficient and effective communication with other
vehicles or devices.
Source from ATA and adapted by IDTechEx
The Autonomous Legal Race
It is predicted that Level-4 autonomous
service will become available earlier than
owned Level-4 trucks, as autonomous MaaS
can more likely be introduced in a very
controlled way.
2021
Germany is making strides in legalising level-
4 autonomy for public roads. In May 2021
2021 2025 SAMPLE ONLY Germany passed a bill which would allow
level-4 autonomous vehicles to operate on
public roads in 2022. Although this action
2021 paves the way for commercial autonomous
MaaS, it is thought that the first services on
offer will more likely be autonomous buses
Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 and shuttles, performing well controlled and
limited missions.
Last mile delivery: the most expensive part
Last mile delivery makes up more than half of the cost of delivering
Cost breakdown for delivery a parcel a parcel. It is the least productive step in the chain where small
loads are transported along customized paths (contrast this with
long-haul delivery where a large payload is transported along a
fixed route).
In the US, delivery drivers transport goods around an urban area or
a small region. such workers were employed in 2021. The
median wage is per year or per hour. Compared to
the numbers in 2014, the median wage has increased by %
from , while the number of drivers has decreased by
The final leg of shipment typically involves multiple stops with low
drop sizes. In rural areas, delivery points along a particular route
%
could be several miles apart, with only one or two packages getting
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what urban areas make up for in stop proximity is quickly negated
by the near constant delays of traffic congestion.
The costs and inefficiencies of the last mile problem have only
been further compounded by the continuous rise of ecommerce in
retail sales, which has dramatically increased the number of
parcels delivered each day, as well as raised customer
expectations to include fast delivery.
Source: IDTechEx *Salary data source from: salary.com; driver number data source from: zippa.com
Technologies for ground-based delivery vehicles:
sensors
In general, three primary sensors are heavily associated with autonomous ground-based
Qualitative Attribute Performance
delivery vehicles: cameras, radars, and LiDARs. For high levels of autonomy, operating Camera Radar LiDAR
in all weather conditions, all three sensors are recommended for covering all necessary
tasks.
Cameras – the most affordable and the best for object classification. However, unlike
radar and LiDAR cameras do not intrinsically measure distance. Cameras also have Object classification
degraded performance in anything other than daytime and fair weather.
Object classification
Radar – radio frequency waves emitted and received. Radar gives both distance and Resolution
velocity information about detected objects, but has poor definition and can be prone to at night
false positives (i.e. mistaking a bridge for a stationary object in the vehicles path).
Radars are generally unaffected by poor weather, dust, etc. and as they emit their own
source, they perform equally well at night. Emerging imaging radars can overcome false
positive related issues and classify objects. Affordability Ranging
LiDAR – LiDAR is an important sensor as it has sufficient resolution for object
classification, while also being able to perform well at night. LiDAR’s current downfalls
are degraded performance in direct light, cost, adverse weather performance and lack of
velocity information. Cost reductions are coming through increased adoption, while
Adverse weather Velocity
emerging 1550nm (vs incumbent 800-900nm) detection is bringing better adverse
weather performance and frequency modulate continuous wave technology (vs
incumbent time of flight) provides additional velocity information.
Direct light Night
Timeline – drone delivery companies
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Amazon announces its plan Google announced that it had Alibaba used propeller-driven Amazon announced making Zipline made headlines for their drone delivery
for a drone-based delivery been working on delivery drones in three major Chinese their very first drone delivery in network in Tanzania, which was designed to
service (Prime Air) drones for two years. cities to deliver Ginger tea to the UK. Amazon filed a series transport crucial medical supplies to remote
local distribution centres. of patents for drone designs regions throughout the country.
DHL worked with government that were clearly targeted at
agencies to establish deliveries. Flytrex launched one of the first ever drone
restricted areas above the delivery programs in Iceland.
North Sea where only drones
could fly. Matternet announced news of the first
autonomous drone delivery network in
2021 2020 2019 2018 Switzerland for carrying blood tests and other
diagnostics between hospitals
DHL announced the company The Federal Aviation Wing announced that they Chinese company SF Express Wing announced their drone delivery program
would not continue the Administration (FAA) published would start making drone and JD.com, received the first for carrying burritos to people in remote
“parcelcopter” delivery drone proposed airworthiness criteria deliveries in Finland in the official permits from China’s areas in Southern Australia.
testing project. for the certification of 10 spring of 2019. Civil Aviation Authority to
different unmanned aircraft deliver packages by drone.
Local government in Shanghai systems, seven of which were Commercial drone delivery of
contracted with Meituan and delivery drones. Antwork was officially Flytrex announced that it would
planned to deploy drones for permitted in Hangzhou, China be making food deliveries by
takeaway food delivery in Amazon Prime Air started drone in North Dakota.
2022. layoffs.
Contact IDTechEx
If you have any questions, please contact us:
research@IDTechEx.com www.IDTechEx.com
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www.linkedin.com/company/IDTechEx
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SAMPLE PAGES

Reports | Subscriptions | Consulting | Events | Journals | Webinars

1. Executive Summary – 24 slides

For the full table of contents please see www.IDTechEx.com/mobile

Mobile Robots Fixed Automation

A large amount of up-front capital is required to

Once the fixed automation is installed, it is hard to scale

Acquired start-up Large tech or engineering company

Geek+ GreyOrange Quicktron Scallog Amazon Robotics

AGV Market Share by Product Types

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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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