Sec 3.

Definitions of
Probability
 Classical Definition

The
probability No. of ways A
that event A
𝑁 𝐴 can occur.
𝑃 𝐴 = The number of
occurs 𝑁 𝑆
outcomes in A

No. of possible outcomes

for the experiment.
No. of outcomes in S
 Example Suppose we have the following sample space

S = { 3, 6, 9, 18, 23 }
𝑁(𝐸) 2
E = get an even number 𝑃 𝐸 = = = 0.4
𝑁(𝑆) 5
= { 6, 18 }

Example Flip a coin twice

S = { hh, ht, th, tt },

𝑁(𝐵) 1
B = get more than 1 head 𝑃 𝐵 = = = 0.25
𝑁(𝑆) 4
= { hh }
Example 2 3 4 5 6 7
S = { (1, 1), (1, 2), (1, 3), (1, 4), (1, 5), (1, 6),
Two dice are rolled.
Find the probability 8
that a sum of 7 will (2, 1), (2, 2), (2, 3), (2, 4), (2, 5), (2, 6),

occur. 9
(3, 1), (3, 2), (3, 3), (3, 4), (3, 5), (3, 6),
𝐸 = 𝑎 𝑠𝑢𝑚 𝑜𝑓 7 𝑤𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑜𝑐𝑐𝑢𝑟
10
= { (1,6), (2,5), (3,4), (4,3), (4, 1), (4, 2), (4, 3), (4, 4), (4, 5), (4, 6),

(5,2), (6,1) } 11
(5, 1), (5, 2), (5, 3), (5, 4), (5, 5), (5, 6),

𝑁(𝐸) 6 12
𝑃 𝐸 = = = 0.17
𝑁(𝑆) 36 (6, 1), (6, 2), (6, 3), (6, 4), (6, 5), (6, 6) }
 We ask students what is the main mode of transport they
Example
use to get to campus

S = { car, bus, plane, taxi, boat, on foot }

C = comes to campus by plane or boat

Is this realistic ?
= { plane, boat }
NO !

Assumptions:
𝑁(𝐶) 2 All outcomes are equally likely.
𝑃 𝐶 = = = 0.33
𝑁(𝑆) 6 The number of possible
outcomes is known,
 Relative frequency / empirical
definition

An experiment is done
𝑛 times and event 𝐴 is 𝑓
observed 𝑓 times. 𝑃 𝐴 =
𝑛
Then…
 Example

You are interested in the mode of

transport that students use to get
to campus.
You interview 1500 students and
get the responses shown in the
table.

215
𝑃(𝑏𝑢𝑠) = = 0.14
1500
 union: ∪

215 + 403
𝑃(𝐵𝑢𝑠 𝑜𝑟 𝑜𝑛 𝑓𝑜𝑜𝑡) = = 0.412
1500

1500 − 215
=
1500

1500 215 1 − 𝑃 𝑏𝑢𝑠

= −
1500 1500

215
𝑃 𝑛𝑜𝑡 𝑏𝑦 𝑏𝑢𝑠 = 𝑃(𝑏𝑢𝑠) = 1− = 1 − 0.14 = 0.86
1500
 Mark f
Example 2 <30 6
A summary of last 30 – 39 26
semester’s final STAT130 40 – 49 45
results are shown in the 50 – 59 64
table 60 – 69 82
70 – 79 37
80 – 89 22
P(passing) 90 – 99 8
Total 290
= P(mark ≥ 50)
64 + 82 + 37 + 22 + 8 6 + 26 + 45
= =1− = 0.73
290 290
 and
Marginal Joint
Probability

Involves the Involves the

occurrence of occurrence of
only one event more than 1
event
 Example The table below shows the majors of 3000 male and female students
enrolled at the University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center.
Females are “not males” so use the complement notation instead of
introducing more unnecessary events (like introducing “F” for females)

Let 𝑀 indicate that

Let 𝑁 indicate that the the person is a male.
person has nursing
majors. 𝑀 ഥ
𝑀

𝑁
Use the complement
notation instead of
ഥ
𝑁
introducing more
unnecessary notation.
𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎 𝑛𝑢𝑟𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑚𝑎𝑗𝑜𝑟) 2 events
joint probability
= 𝑃(𝑀 ∩ 𝑁)
65
=
3000 𝑀 ഥ
𝑀
𝑁
ഥ
𝑁
𝑃(𝑛𝑢𝑟𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑚𝑎𝑗𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑎 𝑓𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒)
ഥ
= 𝑃(𝑁 ∩ 𝑀)
571 2 events
=
3000 joint probability
𝑃(𝑚𝑎𝑙𝑒) 1 event
marginal 𝑀 ഥ
𝑀
= 𝑃(𝑀) prob. 𝑁
1036 ഥ
𝑁
=
3000
1036

𝑃("𝑛𝑜𝑛 − 𝑛𝑢𝑟𝑠𝑖𝑛𝑔" 𝑚𝑎𝑗𝑜𝑟)

ഥ
= 𝑃(𝑁) 𝑀 ഥ
𝑀
𝑁
2364 1 event ഥ
= 𝑁 2364
3000 marginal
prob.
The table can also be written in terms of probability. Also can be
calculated as:
65 0.32 + 0.47

3000 2364
3000
 𝑵(𝑺):
set/fixed value
𝑁(𝐴)
Classical 𝑃 𝐴 =
𝑁(𝑆)
Definition
When n is large,
Vs this tends towards
true probability
Empirical
Definition 𝑓
𝑃 𝐴 =
𝑛 𝒏:
Not fixed.
Can change