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Chapter 7
EQUITY MARKETS AND STOCK VALUATION
Equity Markets and Stock Valuation
Slide
7 Chapter Organization Number
Slide Title
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Chapter 07 – Equity Markets and Stock Valuation
CHAPTER WEBSITES
Websites may be referenced more than once in a chapter. This table just includes the
section for the first reference.
Cash flows are discounted at the required return, R, which, in equilibrium, is the same
as the ―expected return.‖
Slide 7.6 Note that the period 1 cash flow includes both the dividend AND the
selling price. Also, stress that the dividend given in the problem is the EXPECTED
dividend at time t = 1.
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Chapter 07 – Equity Markets and Stock Valuation
Lecture Tip: As the text points out, a stock that currently pays no dividends may or
may not have value; a stock that will NEVER pay a dividend cannot have any value
as long as investors are rational. For a stock that currently pays no dividend, market
value derives from (1) the hope of future dividends and/or (2) the expectation of a
liquidating dividend. In the latter case, ―never pays a dividend‖ really means ―never
pays out cash in any form‖ to shareholders. Students will often argue strenuously
that a firm never has to pay a dividend because investors can just rely on the increase
in price.
Emphasize that the price won’t continue to increase forever. The company will
eventually run out of productive ways to use its cash. When this happens, it will need
to begin paying dividends.
Another way to think of this is that a company that never pays a dividend, including a
liquidating dividend, is essentially a perpetual zero coupon bond. It is a black hole
where you put money in but you never get anything back out.
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Chapter 07 – Equity Markets and Stock Valuation
milestone decision for the company because dividends are considered ―sticky,‖
meaning once a firm starts paying dividends, its shareholders expect them to continue
and for the dividend to grow.
Because the cash flow is always the same, the PV is that for a perpetuity:
P0 = D / R
Example (on slide): Suppose a stock is expected to pay a $0.50 dividend each
quarter forever, and the required return is 10% compounded quarterly.
Remind students that if dividends are paid quarterly, then the discount rate must
be a quarterly rate.
The slide shows the dividends stream for a constant growth stock.
Lecture Tip: Emphasize the difference between the dividend just paid (D0) and the
expected dividends (D1 to Dt). The ―just paid‖ dividend is only used to estimate future
dividends. It is NOT used in the PV calculation in any other way, because we are
concerned with future cash flows, not past ones.
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written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
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Chapter 07 – Equity Markets and Stock Valuation
Knowing the last dividend expected (Dt-1) or the last dividend actually paid (D0) and
the constant growth rate, we can calculate the expected dividend for any future time
period.
Dt = D0 (1+g)t or
Dt = Dt-1(1+g)
Lecture Tip: In his book, A Random Walk Down Wall Street (1985, W.W. Norton &
Company, New York, pp. 82–89), Burton Malkiel gives four ―fundamental‖ rules of
stock prices. Loosely paraphrased, the rules are as follows. Other things equal:
• Investors pay a higher price the larger the dividend growth rate.
• Investors pay a higher price the larger the proportion of earnings paid out as
dividends.
• Investors pay a higher price per share the less risky the company’s stock.
• Investors pay a higher price per share the lower the level of interest rates.
If the required return, R, is looked at as a riskless rate of interest, Rf, plus a risk
premium, RP, (R = Rf + RP), it is easily shown that Malkiel’s rules have counterparts
in the dividend growth model that exert just these effects on stock price.
Of course, the tricky part is estimating the growth rate and required return. So, while
the model is precise, its predictions may be substantially different from observed
stock prices depending on the values used.
Advanced Lecture Tip: If students have had some calculus, it might be useful to
derive the dividend growth model.
D0 (1 g ) D0 (1 g ) 2 D0 (1 g ) 3 D0 (1 g ) t
P0 ...
(1 R ) (1 R ) 2 (1 R ) 3 (1 R ) t
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written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
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Chapter 07 – Equity Markets and Stock Valuation
Subtract the first equation from the second and you get:
(1 R) (1 g ) (1 g ) t
0
P D0 1 t
(1 g ) (1 R)
The term 1 – (1 + g)t/(1 + R)t goes to one as t approaches infinity, assuming R > g.
Solve for P0 to get the dividend growth model.
Point out that the formula is completely general. The dividend in the numerator is
always for one period later than the price we are computing. This is because we are
computing a Present Value, so we have to start with a future cash flow. This is very
important when discussing supernormal growth.
Point out that the stock price grows at the same rate as the dividend.
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written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
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Chapter 07 – Equity Markets and Stock Valuation
At least two answers are possible. First, R may be less than g in the short run. The
supernormal growth problem is an example of this situation. Second, in equilibrium,
high returns on investment will attract capital, which, in the absence of technological
change, will ensure that in succeeding periods, higher returns cannot be earned
without taking greater risk. But taking greater risk will increase R, so g cannot be
increased without raising R.
Note that, from the equation itself, we can see that the growth rate must be less than
the required return else the denominator will be negative leading to a negative—and
impossible—stock price.
The final step is exactly the same as the two-period example at the beginning of the
chapter. If we buy the stock today then we will receive the $1.20 dividend in one
year, receive the $1.38 dividend in two years, and then immediately sell it for $9.66.
Lecture Tip: Students often have difficulty with the timing of the ―price‖ or terminal
value in the nonconstant growth computations. Emphasize that the price always
occurs one period before the dividend in the numerator. Make sure the students
understand that the terminal value includes all the remaining dividends. So, the
nonconstant growth valuation procedure is still just finding the present value of all
expected future dividends.
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written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
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Chapter 07 – Equity Markets and Stock Valuation
We have to discount the dividends during the nonconstant period individually. Then
we use the first constant growth dividend to find the price at the end of the
nonconstant period. Discounting each of these cash flows appropriately and summing
results in today’s price.
Rearrange P0 = D1 / (R – g) to find R:
R = (D1 / P0 ) + g
Dividend yield = D1 / P0
Capital gains yield = g
R = Dividend yield + Capital gains yield
Point out that D1 / P0 is the dividend yield and g is the capital gains yield (percentage
change in the stock price).
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written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
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Chapter 07 – Equity Markets and Stock Valuation
Slide 7.34 repeats the solution to emphasize the components of required return:
dividend yield and capital gains yield.
Cumulative voting—when the directors are all elected at once. Total votes that
each shareholder may cast equals the number of shares times the number of
directors to be elected. In general, if N directors are to be elected, it takes 1 /
(N + 1) percent of the stock + 1 share to assure a deciding vote for one
directorship. Increases the likelihood of minority shareholder representation
on the board.
Straight (majority) voting—the directors are elected one at a time, and every
share gets one vote. Can freeze out minority shareholders.
Staggered elections—directors’ terms are rotated so they aren’t elected at the
same time. This makes it harder for a minority to elect a director and
complicates takeovers.
Proxy voting—grant of authority by a shareholder to someone else to vote his
or her shares. A proxy fight is a struggle between management and outsiders
for control of the board, waged by soliciting shareholders’ proxies.
Real-World Tip: Students often find a digression on proxy fights interesting. It serves
both to underline the importance of equity voting rights and to introduce the concept
of the market for corporate control.
Consideration of Carl Icahn’s attempt to gain control of Texaco via a 1988 proxy
fight indicates that proxy fights need not be ―successful‖ to benefit shareholders.
Icahn amassed a 14% stake in the firm and offered to buy the remainder for $12.4
billion. Rebuffed by management, he launched a proxy fight that he ultimately lost, in
large part because management was able to mount a successful public relations
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written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
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Chapter 07 – Equity Markets and Stock Valuation
campaign that convinced shareholders that Icahn’s offer was not in their best
interests. Nonetheless, as a result of Icahn’s actions, management undertook a
massive restructuring program that included a drastic reduction in the firm’s debt
load, significantly reduced exploration costs, and the divestiture of assets worth $5
billion. Management’s efforts were so well received in the financial markets that
Icahn stated in 1991: ―Since the proxy fight, [management] woke up. I wish to hell
I’d kept the stock.‖
Lecture Tip: Large institutions, such as mutual funds and pension funds, used to
remain on the sidelines when it came to corporate control. However, several
institutions have become much more active in recent years and have worked to force
companies to operate in the shareholders best interests. CalPERS, the pension plan
for California public employees, has been at the forefront of the corporate
governance movement. Management for the fund takes their job as ―shareowners‖ so
seriously that they have a section of their website devoted to corporate governance
issues.
Classes of Stock:
Different classes of stock can have different rights. Owners may want to issue a
nonvoting class of stock if they want to make sure that they maintain control of the
firm.
Ford Motor Company has always had two classes of stock: Class B or
―Founders’ Shares‖ are owned by the Ford family and carry 40% of the voting
rights though they represent only 10% of the shares outstanding.
Google has Class A shares that are publicly traded and carry one vote per
share. Class B shares are held by insiders and carry 10 votes per share.
Real-World Tip: The importance of the preemptive right was driven home in
November 1996 to the shareholders of Marvel Entertainment Group, the company
that produces Marvel Comics. (Marvel’s stable of characters includes Spider-Man,
the Fantastic Four, and the Incredible Hulk, among others.) Despite Marvel’s
dominance of the comic book market, the declining size of the market, as well as a
heavy debt load, caused Marvel to run the risk of default. In order to obtain needed
funds, Ron Perelman, who (through his other firms) owned approximately 80% of the
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written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
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Chapter 07 – Equity Markets and Stock Valuation
outstanding shares, proposed that Marvel issue 410 million new shares at a price of
$0.85 per share. The effect of the announcement was to drive the price of the
outstanding 20% of the shares Perelman didn’t own from $4.625 to less than $2.50.
To add insult to injury, according to The Wall Street Journal, Perelman had the
power, as the majority shareholder, to force the plan through.
Subsequently, Marvel filed for bankruptcy reorganization and Carl Icahn sought to
gain control of the firm. Ultimately, Marvel merged with Toy Biz, much to Icahn’s
displeasure. The combined company is still Marvel Entertainment and trades under
the ticker symbol MVL.
Preferred stock has precedence over common stock in the payment of dividends and
in liquidation. Its dividend is usually fixed, and the stock is often without voting
rights. The stated value is the value paid to preferred stockholders in the event of
liquidation.
Real-World Tip: A glance at the stock quote pages in The Wall Street Journal
provides evidence that some firms have numerous classes of preferred stock. An
online search for ticker symbols also confirms this (and that some have various
classes of common stock). Students are probably already aware that NASDAQ
common issues outnumber NYSE issues by approximately three to one. The reverse
appears to be true for preferred stock.
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written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
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Chapter 07 – Equity Markets and Stock Valuation
Dealers—maintain an inventory and stand ready to trade at quoted bid (price at which
they will buy) and ask (price at which they will sell) prices. They make their profit
from the difference between the bid and ask prices, called the bid-ask spread. The
smaller the spread, the more competition and the more liquid the stock. Think ―used
car dealer.‖
Brokers—match buyers and sellers. They perform the search function for a fee
(commission). They do not hold an inventory of securities. Think ―real estate broker.‖
Floor brokers—NYSE members who execute orders for commission brokers on a fee
basis.
Video Note: The ―Financial Markets‖ video discusses how capital is raised and
shows an open-outcry market at the Chicago Board of Trade.
www: Check out the NYSE website by clicking on the hot link. Students are often
amazed at all of the information that is available.
DMMs:
• Manage the order flow by keeping the limit order book. (The limit order book
lists the trades that investors have given to their brokers that include desired
trading prices.)
• Hold an inventory in their assigned stock, post bid and ask prices, and are
supposed to maintain an orderly market.
• Post is a fixed place on the exchange floor where the DMM operates.
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written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
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Chapter 07 – Equity Markets and Stock Valuation
Trading in ―the crowd‖—trading that occurs directly between brokers around the
DMM’s post.
Lecture Tip: The role of the DMM is an interesting one. He or she is entrusted with
the knowledge of pending buy and sell orders (in other words, the DMM knows the
shapes of the market supply and demand curves) for the stock he or she deals in and
is to provide liquidity and continuity in pricing by buying when the market is selling
and selling when the market is buying. Interestingly, while studies performed in the
early 1970s indicated that specialists (DMMs) were able to earn excess returns,
studies of the crash of 1987 suggest that specialists were unable (and, in some cases,
unwilling) to buy as the market crashed on October 19. And in the April 24, 1998,
issue of Money Daily, John Gutfreund, former Salomon Brothers CEO, states that he
―is not certain that the obligation of the market markers is to anyone other than
themselves.‖ For these reasons, among others, some who study markets question the
efficacy of the DMM system.
NASDAQ is a multiple market maker system with many dealers ―making a market‖
in the same stock.
www: Check out the NASDAQ website by clicking on the hot link.
An ECN is a website that allows trading directly between investors without using
either a dealer or a broker
Slide shows a screen shot from Batstrading.com for Microsoft. During trading hours,
you can watch orders posted and traded live. (Web link on Slide 7.43)
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Chapter 07 – Equity Markets and Stock Valuation
www: The following ―Work the Web‖ slide includes a hotlink to Bloomberg.com so
students can see the stock quotes online.
Lecture Tip: It often stimulates the class interest to require the students to obtain a
recent Wall Street Journal and have them examine the financial section. Pick out a
familiar stock and have the class perform some of the calculations presented in the
text. Then have the students examine the dividend column for various stocks and point
out the number of non-dividend-paying stocks there are. This could reinforce the text
discussion of how the market values the future dividend stream.
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written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
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Chapter 07 – Equity Markets and Stock Valuation
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written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
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