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Analysis of Inventories 48
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Institute.
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6. Follow up
VC/PE investment
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1. Regulatory Filings
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1. Regulatory Filings
1. Regulatory Filings
- European Union
securities regulation:
- European Securities Committee (ESC)
- European Securities and Market Authority (ESMA)
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4. Audit Reports
- Financial Statements audited by independent Auditor in accordance
with specified auditing standards
independent auditor provides written opinion, the ‘audit report’
- International Auditing Standards (ISA) - Sarbanes-Oxley Act (US)
Reasonable assurance express opinion on internal
Free from material misstatement controls
- modified Qualified
Adverse
Disclaimer
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4. Audit Reports
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- Public Third Party: industry whitepapers, analyst reports, social media, ...
- Proprietary Third Party: Bloomberg etc., Analyst reports, industry specific, ...
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d. describe how earnings per share is calculated and calculate and interpret a
company’s basic and diluted earnings per share for companies with simple
and complex capital structures including those with antidilutive securities
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Revenue
- Recognized when earned Risks and Rewards transferred
‘more likely
IFRS than not’
- Converged Standard
1. Identify contract with customer ➞ collectability ‘probable’ US ‘likely to
GAAP occur’
2. Identify separate/distinct performance obligations
3. Determine the transaction price ➞ allocate to distinct obligations
Revenue
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Revenue
Revenue
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Revenue
Expenses
- Recognize in period that:
- economic benefits associated with the expenditure are consumed
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Expenses
- Interest: companies must capitalize interest costs associated with
acquiring or constructing an asset that takes a long period
of time to get ready for its intended use
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Expenses
- companies must capitalize software development costs after a product’s
feasibility is established
Judgment!
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Expenses
- Recognition: Conservative or Aggressive
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Non-Recurring Items
- income statements tell us about the past. What about the future?
- Forecast accuracy improved by removing items less likely to repeat
Unusual or Infrequent Items
- IFRS: income/expenses ‘material or relevant’ to understanding performance
disclosed separately
- US GAAP: ‘material items that are unusual or infrequent or both are shown as
part of continuing operations but disclosed separately.
Sale of a business
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Non-Recurring Items
- EPS based on net profit (or loss) and net profit or loss from continuing
operations must be disclosed on the face of the income statement
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Stock split
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Convertible Preferred
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Convertible Debt
- for outstanding stock options & warrants calculate diluted EPS using
the treasury stock method (US GAAP):
1. Assume all dilutive options/warrants have been exercised
2. Assume company uses exercise proceeds to repurchase as many
shares as possible at the average market price for the period
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Antidilutive Securities
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e. calculate and interpret common-size balance sheets and related financial ratios
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- Indefinite : No amortization
Annual Review of Assumption and test for impairment
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Goodwill
- Goodwill arises on acquisition of one company by another (internally generated
goodwill not recognized)
- Calculation : excess purchase price above fair value of identifiable assets and
liabilities
- Represents: value not recognized on balance sheet e.g. Reputation, Staff skills
Financial Instruments
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Financial Instruments
IFRS : Amortized Cost Method - Cash flows are on specified dates and consist
of principal and interest only (debt)
(US GAAP ‘held to maturity’) - Business model is to hold the asset to maturity
IFRS Fair Value through P&L - If not in either of the other categories
Financial Instruments
Example : Purchase 5% semi-annual coupon bond for EUR 100,000,000
in six months fair value is EUR 102,000,000.
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Non-Current Liabilities
- Derivatives
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a. describe how the cash flow statement is linked to the income statement and the
balance sheet
b. describe the steps in the preparation of direct and indirect cash flow statements,
including how cash flows can be computed using income statement and balance
sheet data
c. demonstrate the conversion of cash flows from the indirect to direct method
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Accumulated Depreciation
+35 CFI -
31 Dec. Charge depreciation Depreciation Expense +35
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Revenue 23,598
23,543
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Cash paid to suppliers B/S : Accounts Payable I/S : Cost of Goods Sold
Inventory
2018 2017
e.g. B/S: Inventory 3,984 3,277 increase 707
Accounts Payable 3,588 3,325 increase 263
Cash paid to employees B/S: Salary and Wages Payable I/S: Salary and Wages Expense
2018 2017
e.g. B/S: Salary and Wages Payable 85 75 increase 10
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Cash paid for other operating expenses B/S: Prepaid Expenses I/S: Other Operating
Accrued Liabilities Expenses
2018 2017
e.g. B/S : Prepaid Expenses 155 178 decrease 23
Accrued Liabilities 1,126 1,104 increase 22
Cash paid for Interest B/S: Interest Payable I/S: Interest Expense
2018 2017
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Cash paid for Income Taxes B/S: Income Tax Payable I/S: Income Tax Expense
2018 2017
e.g. B/S : Income Tax Payable 55 50 increase 5
I/S : Income Tax Expense 1,139
Additions
Depreciation & Amortization expense
Depletion expense of natural resources Subtractions
Amortization of bond discount Amortization of bond premium
Loss on sale/write-down of assets Gain on sale of assets
Loss on retirement of debt Gain on retirement of debt
Loss on investments under equity method Income on investments under equity method
Increase in deferred income tax liability Decrease in deferred income tax liability
Decrease in current operating assets Increase in current operating assets
(AR, Inventory, Prep.) Decrease in current operating liabilities
Increase in current operating liabilities
(AP, Accruals)
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US GAAP v. IFRS
US GAAP : Interest Received CFO IFRS : Interest Received CFO or CFI
Interest Paid CFO Interest Paid CFO or CFF
Dividends Received CFO Dividends Received CFO or CFI
Dividends Paid CFF Dividends Paid CFO or CFF
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a. analyze and interpret both reported and common-size cash flow statements
b. calculate and interpret free cash flow to the firm, free cash flow to equity, and
performance and coverage cash flow ratios
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2016 2017
CFO 2,652 2,958
CFI (848) (11,437)
CFF (1,616) 8,289
Ex Rates (151) 272
Inc/dec Cash 38 81
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1. Trend in depreciation?
2. Trend in CAPEX?
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Analysis of Inventories
a. describe the measurement of inventory at the lower of cost and net realisable
value and its implications for financial statements and ratios
b. calculate and explain how inflation and deflation of inventory costs affect the
financial statements and ratios of companies that use different inventory
valuation methods
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Analysis of Inventories
Measurement of Inventory
IFRS: Value inventory at lower of cost and net realizable value
if NRV < cost write-down charged to income statement
subsequent increases in NRV recognized and reduce
Cost of Sales in the income statement (reversal)
Measurement of Inventory
Impact of write-down on ratios
Write-down: Reduces inventory (current, total assets ↓) less likely using LIFO
Increases expenses (net income, equity ↓)
Solvency Ratios Liquidity Ratios Profitability Ratios Activity Ratios
[negative effect] [negative effect] [negative effect] [positive effect]
Decrease in Equity Decrease in Current Assets Decrease in Net Income Decrease in Assets
Increase in COGS
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Inflation: FIFO method: Higher Profit (I/S) LIFO method: Lower Profit (I/S)
(Rising Input Prices) Higher Inventory (B/S) Lower Inventory (B/S)
Higher Taxes Lower Taxes
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b. explain and evaluate how impairment and derecognition of property, plant, and
equipment and intangible assets affect the financial statements and ratios
c. analyze and interpret financial statement disclosures regarding property, plant, and
equipment and intangible assets
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Intangible Assets
Definition : Non-Monetary
Lack Physical Substance
IFRS Definition Criteria: (1) Identifiable Goodwill!
(2) Under the control of the company
(3) Expected to generate future economic benefits
IFRS Recognition Criteria: (1) Probable that the expected future economic benefits will flow to
(2) Cost of the asset can be reliably measured the company
Purchased (other than Bus. Combn) Developed Internally Acquired in a Business Combination
Record on B/S at fair value (cost) Expensed as incurred Purchase price allocated to identifiable
(cost allocated to each asset if part Exceptions: Development assets & liabilities at fair value
of a group)
Capitalizing versus Expensing IFRS: Must meet the definitional
Higher Assets Lower Assets and recognition criteria
Higher CFO Lower CFO US GAAP: (1) arises from contractual
Lower CFI Higher CFI or legal right
or (2) can be separated from co.
Goodwill
In a business combination the excess of the
purchase price over and above the fair value
of identifiable assets and liabilities acquired
is goodwill
Purchase Price x
FV ID NA Acquired (x)
Goodwill X
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Intangible Assets
Internally Developed: Specific rules for research and development and software
development costs
Research and Development
IFRS Research (gaining knowledge and understanding) expensed
Development (application to design new/improved products) capitalized technically
feasible
intent to use/sell
US GAAP Research and development expensed
Exception: software development costs - capitalize when technologically feasible
probable completion (for
internal use project)
Impairment
Property, Plant, and Equipment
At the end of each period the company ‘assesses whether there are indications of impairment’
(obsolescence, decline demand for product etc.)
If there are indications Impairment Test
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Impairment
PPE Example
1. Under IFRS, what would the company report for the machine? 2. Under US GAAP, what would the company report for the machine?
Impairment
PPE Example (2)
1. Under IFRS, what would the company report for the machine? 2. Under US GAAP, what would the company report for the machine?
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Impairment
Intangible Assets : Finite Lives
As with PPE, assessed for indications of impairment e.g. Adverse change in legal or
economic factors
Accounting is as for PPE
Reversal of Impairments
Impact on Accounts : Long-lived assets, total assets, equity ↑ Not a cash flow!
Expenses decrease so net income ↑
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Derecognition
Derecognize an asset when it no longer provides economic benefit
If sale is highly probable move to held for sale
Gain/Loss on Sale
Proceeds From Sale* x CFI (cash flow statement), + cash B/S
Net Book Value (x) Remove from PPE in B/S
Gain/(Loss) x/(x) Income Statement - other gains and losses
- separate if material
*[zero if abandoned]
= FV asset given up
or FV asset acquired if
Asset Exchange ‘more evident’
or CV asset if no reliable FV
Carrying value removed, replaced with fair value asset acquired
[G/L = zero]
Disclosures
IFRS US GAAP
Measurement Basis (Historic Cost, Fair Value)
Depreciation Method (straight line, declining balance etc.)
Gross Carrying Amount start and end of period
Accumulated Depreciation + estimated amortization
Depreciation Expense for Period expense for next 5 yrs.
Reconciliation of Carrying Amount from Beginning to End Period
Major Classes of Assets
Justification of Indefinite Lives for Intangibles
Restrictions on title, pledges as security
Contractual Agreements to Acquire PPE
Revaluation Model : Date of revaluation
Details of fair value calculation not allowed
Carrying amount under cost model
Revaluation surplus
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Disclosures
IFRS US GAAP
Amount of impairment losses
Circumstances leading to impairment + method of determining fair value
Amount of impairment losses reversed not allowed for held-for-use
Circumstances leading to reversal
Where impairment losses are recognized
Note: If company uses ‘function of expense’ method for income statement depreciation
expense is shown separately
Using Disclosures
The extensive amount of PPE disclosure can be used to calculate:
1. Fixed Asset Turnover : Total Revenue
Higher Ratio = More efficient use of assets
Average Net Fixed Assets
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Using Disclosures
Orange BCE Verizon
Total Life: 97,092 69,230 246,498 - 806
4,708 3,037 14,741
20.6 22.8 16.7
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a. explain the financial reporting of leases from the perspectives of lessors and lessees
b. explain the financial reporting of defined contribution, defined benefit, and stock-
based compensation plans
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Leases
Lease : A contract that conveys the right to use an asset for a period of
time in exchange for consideration
Lessee : Pays consideration and uses an asset (e.g. a manufacturer leases a warehouse to
use)
Lessor : Receives consideration for granting the use of an asset (e.g. an investment
property company)
Requirements For Lease Accounting
The Contract Must: identify a specific underlying asset
give the customer the right to obtain largely all of the economic
benefits from the asset over the contract term
give the customer, not the supplier, the ability to direct how and for
what objective the underlying asset is used
Leases
Advantages to Leasing (v. Purchasing):
less cash required up front
lower ‘finance’ cost than an unsecured loan - asset acts as security
convenience and lower risks of ownership e.g. obsolescence
lessor widens market for customers
lessor receives income stream over the lease term
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Leases
Is it a lease? specific asset
largely all benefits over term
customer directs use
Leases
Exemption from lease accounting : Term ≤ 12 months (IFRS and US GAAP)
Asset ≤ USD 5,000 (IFRS only)
Lessee Accounting (IFRS)
Operating and Finance Leases treated identically:
Lease Liability B/S at inception Right-of-Use Asset
Present value* of future lease payments Present value* of future lease payments
(amortize using effective interest method) (amortized, usually straight line)
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Leases (IFRS)
Leases
Lessee Accounting (US GAAP)
Finance Leases treated identically to IFRS
Operating Leases treated differently
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Leases
Lessor Accounting
IFRS and US GAAP pleasingly similar
Finance Lease
Derecognize Leased Asset B/S at inception Lease Receivable Asset
Remove from Balance Sheet Present value* of future lease payments
Reduced by pmts. using effective interest
method
I/S at inception
Difference = Gain/Loss
I/S during life
Interest income (Revenue if primary activity)
C/F during life
CFO
Leases
Lessor Accounting
IFRS and US GAAP pleasingly similar
Operating Lease
Retain Leased Asset B/S at inception
Do Not Remove from Balance Sheet
I/S during life
Lease Revenue Recognized Straight Line
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Leases
Employee Compensation
Salary Defined Contribution Pension Plan
Bonus Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Health & Life Insurance Premiums Share Based Compensation
Usually vest immediately or shortly after Deferred - employees may earn compensation
the grant date in the current period but receive in future
Reported as an expense in the period periods
in which they vest Amount may be based on future variables
e.g. Final Salary, Stock Price
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Employee Compensation
Defined Benefit Plan
Company promises a value of future benefits to be paid in retirement:
e.g. Annual payment during retirement until death equal to # Yrs. service × Final Salary
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Company has an obligation which it will fund with assets
Employee Compensation
Accounting For Defined Benefit Plan
The change in the net pension asset/liability over the year is recognized in either
the income statement or other comprehensive income (OCI). The split differs between
IFRS and US GAAP
IFRS
Income Statement Other Comprehensive Income
Service Cost - PV increase in benefit earned Remeasurements - (1) Actuarial Gains/Losses from
by employee in the year changes in assumptions
- Past service costs resulting from (e.g. Avg. service life, salary increases etc.)
changes in plan rules - (2) Difference between the actual
Net Interest return on assets and return
Expense/Income - Change in the PV of the net included in interest (P&L)
pension asset/liability due to the
passage
= (Net Pension Asset/Liability × Disc. Rate)
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Employee Compensation
US GAAP
Income Statement Other Comprehensive Income
Service Cost - PV increase in benefit earned Actuarial
by employee in the year Gains/Losses - on obligation (as for IFRS)
- actual return on assets less
Interest Expense - interest accrued on beginning expected return on assets (I/S)
plan obligation using discount [Typically amortized into income statement over
rate time. May be recognized immediately in I/S]
Expected Return
on Assets - return plan assets would have - past service costs resulting from
generated using expected rate changes in plan rules
of return [Amortized into income statement over
future service period of employees]
Employee Compensation
Share-Based Compensation
Aim is to align employee’s interests with those of shareholders - does it though?
Potentially involves no cash outlay but:
is a form of compensation expense
has the potential to dilute EPS
may be cash settled
may cause management to be risk averse/take excessive risks
Stock Grants
Compensation expense based on fair value of stock on the grant date
Expense recognized over the plan’s vesting schedule
Outright - Allocated over service period (current period unless specified)
Restricted - Allocated over service period related to performance
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Employee Compensation
Stock Options
Compensation based on fair value of option on grant date
Employee Compensation
Accounting For Stock Options
Grant Date Vesting Date Exercise Date
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a. contrast accounting profit, taxable income, taxes payable, and income tax expense
and temporary versus permanent differences between accounting profit and taxable
income
b. explain how deferred tax liabilities and assets are created and the factors that
determine how a company’s deferred tax liabilities and assets should be treated for
the purposes of financial analysis
c. calculate, interpret, and contrast an issuer’s effective tax rate, statutory tax rate, and
cash tax rate
d. analyze disclosures relating to deferred tax items and the effective tax rate
reconciliation and explain how information included in these disclosures affects a
company’s financial statements and financial ratios
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Review of Terminology
Accounting Profit = Pretax Income: Reported in income statement, based on accounting standards
Taxable Income : Income subject to income taxes under relevant tax laws
Account Profit and Taxable Income are likely to be different
due to temporary differences and permanent differences
Income Tax Payable : Based on taxable income, appears on the balance sheet
Income Tax Paid : Cash amount paid, reduces income tax payable
Carrying Amount : The amount at which an asset/liability is recorded in the financial statements
Tax Base : The amount at which an asset/liability is valued for tax purposes
Carrying value and tax base are likely to be different
due to temporary differences and permanent differences
Review of Terminology
Tax Expense = provision for income taxes : appears in income statement :
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Depreciation relates to PPE that cost 20,000 at start of year one. Assume statutory tax rate is 30%
End of: YR 3 YR 2 YR 1
Carrying Value 14,000 16,000 18,000
Tax Base 11,429 14,286 17,413
Temporary Difference 2,571 1,714 857
Balance Sheet : DT Liability 771 514 257
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Practice Questions
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effective tax rate consistently lower than statutory /competitors not unusual
analysts should adjust for one-off items
normalized operating income may be used to calculate a normalized tax rate:
- Remove special items
- Remove associates
Analyzing Disclosures
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Analyzing Disclosures
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a. compare financial reporting quality with the quality of reported results (including
quality of earnings, cash flow, and balance sheet items)
d. describe motivations that might cause management to issue financial reports that
are not high quality and conditions that are conducive to issuing low-quality, or
even fraudulent, financial reports
e. describe mechanisms that discipline financial reporting quality and the potential
limitations of those mechanisms
g. describe accounting methods (choices and estimates) that could be used to manage
earnings, cash flow, and balance sheet items
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Assessment Spectrum
Financial Reporting Quality ranges from high : Relevant, Complete, Neutral, Free from error
to low : Pure Fabrication
Earnings Quality ranges from high : Sustainable, high (adequate ROI)
to low : Unsustainable, low (inadequate ROI)
Best :① GAAP, Decision-Useful, Sustainable, Adequate Returns
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Assessment Spectrum
Best : ① GAAP, Decision-Useful, Sustainable
② GAAP, Decision-Useful, Sustainable?
③ GAAP, Biased accounting choices
Aggressive : Improve Financial Performance, Position in period
Increase revenue, earnings, CFO
Decrease expenses, level of debt
Conservative : Improve Financial Performance, Position in future periods
Decrease revenue, earnings, CFO
Increase expenses, level of debt
Examples: earnings smoothing : Conservative choices today
Aggressive choices in future
Transparency of disclosure : Do disclosures obscure unfavorable information
Assessment Spectrum
Best : ① GAAP, Decision-Useful, Sustainable
② GAAP, Decision-Useful, Sustainable?
③ GAAP, Biased accounting choices
④ GAAP, Earnings management
‘intentional choices that create biased financial reports’
I know what you’re thinking, didn’t we just... ?
Distinction (somewhat arbitrary) : intent
Real Actions: delay research expenditure to next period , earnings ↑
Accounting Choices: increase useful economic life assets , depn. ↓ , earnings ↑
⑥ Fictitious Transactions
Making stuff up
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Conservative v. Aggressive
Unbiased financial reporting is the ideal (faithful representation: neutral)
Investors: may prefer conservative choices (positive surprises are acceptable)
Management: may prefer aggressive choices (look how well I’m doing, reward me)
Standards ① may require conservative treatment
e.g. Research and development costs expensed
Litigation losses recognized when ‘probable’
The amount of time we spent on the rules for revenue recognition v.
expenses
② Require Judgment in their application
e.g. Big Bath Accounting
Cookie Jar Reserves
Fraud
Triangle
e.g. Incentives e.g. Everyone agreed it was
a good idea
Pressure/Motivation Rationalization
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Discipline !
Are there mechanisms that provide discipline?
Markets : Companies compete for capital ➞ its cost is a function of perceived risk
Presentation Choices
GAAP Earnings : calculated using relevant accounting standards
Non-GAAP Earnings (pro forma earnings) : No rules. Justification? comparability
e.g. Investors use EBITDA to eliminate ‘noise’ of different dep’n./amt’n. policies
Loan covenants may also use non-GAAP earnings measure preferred by the lender
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Presentation Choices
SEC definition non-GAAP measures:
Measure of Performance that differs from that presented in the financial statements
Measure of Liquidity that differs from cash flow or CFO calculated using GAAP
If non GAAP measures are reported:
SEC: Most directly comparable GAAP measure must be displayed with equal prominence
A reconciliation to the GAAP measure must be provided
Management must justify its reasoning for believing it is useful
Management must disclose additional purposes, if material, for which it is used
Excluding charges that require cash settlement from liquidity measures prohibited
Measures that eliminate non-recurring items cannot exclude items very likely to re-occur
Presentation Choices
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Management Methods
Earnings and Balance Sheet
Timing of Revenue Recognition: Point at which Risks & Rewards transferred
Goods leave warehouse 31 Dec. Arrive at customer 2 Jan.
Shipping Point Destination
(Revenue this year) (Revenue next year)
Channel Stuffing: Deep discounts at quarter end, send goods without orders (DSO?, Returns?)
Bill and Hold : Goods sold but held by seller - minimal effort to fabricate
Revenue Arrangement : Manage allocation of revenue to performance obligations
Management Methods
Earnings and Balance Sheet
Deferred Tax Assets : Manage recognition of valuation allowance
Related Party Transactions: Undertake transactions with related parties at favorable rates
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Management Methods
Cash Flow
Cash flow from operations is ‘closely scrutinized’ by investors
accruals based earnings (I/S) that don’t turn into cash flow may indicate shenanigans
‘more insulated’ from managerial manipulation than earnings but not immune to it
Warning Signs
“The choices management makes to achieve desired results leave a trail, like tracks in
sand or snow” (Ciesielski, Henry, Selling)
Revenue
Accounting Policies Note: Evidence of revenue recognition policies that make it easier to manipulate
e.g. FOB shipping, bill-and-hold, barter transactions, rebates, multiple
deliverables
Revenue Relationships: Revenue growth v. competitors v. industry v. economy
Accounts Receivable v. Revenue Trend
Asset Turnover
Inventory
Inventory Relationships: Trend
Inventory Turnover Ratio
LIFO usage (US GAAP)
Capitalization Policies
Accounting Policies Note: Capitalization Policy v. Competitors/industry practice
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Warning Signs
Cash Flow v. Net Income
Ratio of CFO/net income : Trend, consistently below I.O
Other
PPE Disclosures : Dep’n methods and UELs
4th Quarter Results: Consistent positive surprises in Q4
Related Party Disclosures: Evidence of related party transactions
Non-Operating Income : If included in revenue
Non-Recurring Expenses: Repetitive non-recurring expenses make no sense
Ratio Analysis : Are ratios superior to competitors - why?
Risk Factors : Young companies with stellar history maturing
Minimalist disclosures by management
Management fixated with earnings
Company cultures
Restructuring charges
Acquisition focus
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a. describe tools and techniques used in financial analysis, including their uses and
limitations
c. describe relationships among ratios and evaluate a company using ratio analysis
f. describe how ratio analysis and other techniques can be used to model and forecast
earnings
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Framework
Ratio Analysis
Ratios help with comparability Remove size as a factor
Remove impact of different currencies
Assist in identification of trends
Ratios are at the mercy of GAAP Accounting policies can distort ratios
Ratios may need adjusting to common GAAP
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Ratio Analysis
The Value of Ratios
Evaluate past performance
Assess current financial position
Provide helpful insights for predicting future
Evaluate changes over time
Compare to peer group
Limitations of Ratios
Finding comparables for multi-divisional companies
Conflicting Ratios: Liquidity v. Solvency
Require Judgment
Accounting Policies
Sources of Data
Financial Statements
Vendors - be wary of varying definitions
Ratios
Vertical Common Size - B/S % of Total Assets
- I/S % of Revenue
- CFS % of Revenue or % cash inflow/outflow
Horizontal Common Size
Each line item expressed as a percentage of same item from base year
e.g. Inventory : 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
100 110 115 98 99
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Categories
Context is King : Ratios are a social animal, they lose their value in isolation
Compare : prior periods, industry norms, competitors, company goals
Set expectations
View in context of Economic Conditions
Activity
( Asset utilization, operating efficiency )
Measures of operational performance - How effectively is company using - working capital
- longer term assets
Working Capital
Turnover and days for inventory, receivables, payables
Turnover : Income Statement Days : Number Days in Period
Average Balance Sheet Turnover Ratio
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Activity
Cost of Goods Sold Days of Inventory Number Days in Period
Inventory Turnover
Average Inventory on Hand (DOH) Inventory Turnover
High v. Industry : Efficient inventory management?
check revenue growth
or Inadequate inventory levels?
Payables Turnover Cost of Goods Sold Number of Days Number Days in Period
Average Payables of Payables Inventory Turnover
High v. Industry : not making use of credit terms?
compare to liquidity
or taking early payment discounts?
Activity
( Asset utilization, operating efficiency )
Measures of operational performance - How effectively is company using - working capital
- longer term assets
* *
Fixed Asset Revenue Dollars of Revenue per Dollar of FC/TA
Turnover Average Net Fixed Assets High - greater efficiency
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Activity Ratios
Activity Ratios
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Activity Ratios
Liquidity Ratios
Ability to meet short-term obligations - level of liquidity required differs by
industry ➞ banking
Adequate? Depends on analysis of historical funding needs, access to capital
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Liquidity Ratios
Cash Conversion Cycle (net operating cycle) DOH + DSO - Number Days Payables
DOH
DSO
Days Payables
Liquidity Ratios
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Liquidity Ratios
Liquidity Ratios
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Solvency Ratios
Solvency : Ability to fulfill long-term debt obligations
Solvency Ratios measure: Relative amount of debt in capital structure (debt ratios)
Adequacy of earnings and cash flow to cover
interest expenses and other fixed charges (coverage ratios)
[ operating leverage may limit the company’s
ability to make use of financial leverage ]
For purposes of calculation in this module :
Total-Debt = sum of interest-bearing short-term and long-term debt
[this excludes accrued expenses, accounts payable, leases]
Coverage Ratios
Interest Coverage : EBIT used in debt covenants Higher
Interest Payments
Greater
Solvency
Fixed Charge Coverage EBIT + Lease Payments used to measure
Interest Payments + Lease Payments quality of pref. divs.
Solvency Ratios
Debt-to-Assets Ratio Total Debt % Total Assets Financed with debt
(Total Debt Ratio) Total Assets
* *
Financial Leverage Ratio Average Total Assets Average used here & DuPont
Debt-to-EBITDA Total Debt or Net Debt [Total Debt - (cash & mktble sec)]
EBITDA EBITDA How many years it would take
to repay debt based on EBITDA
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Profitability Ratios
Measure return earned during a period
Return on Sales Ratio = Income v. Revenue Return on Investment = Income v. Capital
(common size I/S) (Equity, Assets, Capital employed)
Operating Income
Gross Profit Margin Gross Profit Operating ROA
Average Total Assets
Revenue
* * Net Income
ROA
Average Total Assets
Operating Profit Margin Operating Income * [DP] *
Revenue EBIT(1 - 𝐭)
Return on Invested Capital
Avg. Total ST< Debt & Equity
Pretax Margin EBT
Revenue Net Income
ROE
Average Total Equity
* *
Net Profit Margin Net Income Return on Common Equity NI - Preferred Divs.
* [DP] * Revenue Average Common Equity
Relationships
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DuPont Analysis
Return on Equity (ROE) = NI / Avg. Equity , this we already know
What drives ROE? to find that out we shall decompose it
ROE = Net Income = Net Income Avg. Total Assets
× ROE = ROA × Leverage
Avg. Sh. Equity Avg. Total Assets Avg. Sh. Equity
5 4 3 2
ROE 5.92% 1.66% 1.62% (0.62%)
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DuPont Analysis
ROE = Net Income = Net Income Revenue Avg. Total Assets
× ×
Avg. Sh. Equity Revenue Avg. Total Assets Avg. Sh. Equity
5 4 3 2
ROE 5.92% 1.66% 1.62% (0.62%)
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DuPont Analysis
ROE = Net Income = Net Income Revenue Avg. Total Assets
× ×
Avg. Sh. Equity Revenue Avg. Total Assets Avg. Sh. Equity
Revenue 1,000
Operating Expenses (400) Net = 315
=
315
× ×
EBIT 600 Margin 1,000 1,000
DuPont Analysis
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Industry Specific
Be aware!
Explain what this ratio is measuring and compare the results reported for
each of the years shown in the chart. What other information might an ana-
lyst want to review before making any conclusions on this information?
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b. explain how behavioral factors affect analyst forecasts and recommend remedial
actions for analyst biases
c. explain how the competitive position of a company based on a Porter’s five forces
analysis affects prices and costs
d. explain how to forecast industry and company sales and costs when they are
subject to price inflation or deflation
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Behavioral Factors
Experts persistently make forecasting errors resulting from behavioral biases
Overconfidence
‘Unwarranted faith in own ability’
More common when making contrarian predictions
Mitigation : Share, Review, Widen Confidence Intervals, Scenario Analysis
Illusion of Control
‘Overestimation of ability to control what cannot be controlled’
Can lead to overly complex models - leads to diminishing marginal returns
Mitigation : Focus on most important variables
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Behavioral Factors
Experts persistently make forecasting errors resulting from behavioral biases
Representativeness Bias
‘Classifying information based on past experiences and known classifications’
Base-Rate neglect : inside view v. outside view
considers base rate
Mitigation : Consider base-rate, make adjustments
Confirmation Bias
‘Seek and notice information that confirms prior belief’
Mitigation : Seek opinions that differ
Competitive advantage ?
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Offsetting Expenses :
Forecasted increases in raw material costs may lead to decrease in discretionary spend
e.g. Advertising
Research and Development
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Employer’s preferences
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Terminal Value Estimation : going concern value after the explicit forecast horizon
(DCF Models) - normalize free cash flow
- future growth rate v. historical
- inflection points/economic disruption can be critical
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