You are on page 1of 108

Last Revised: 06/29/2023

2024 Level 1 - Financial Statement Analysis

Learning Modules Page


Introduction to Financial Statement Analysis 2

Analyzing Income Statements 10

Analyzing Balance Sheets 25

Analyzing Statements of Cash Flows I 31

Analyzing Statements of Cash Flows II 42

Analysis of Inventories 48

Analysis of Long-Term Assets 51

Topics in Long-Term Liabilities and Equity 59

Analysis of Income Taxes 71

Financial Reporting Quality 78

Financial Analysis Techniques 87

Introduction to Financial Statement Modeling 102

This document should be used in conjunction with the corresponding learning modules in the 2024 Level 1 CFA® Program
curriculum. Some of the graphs, charts, tables, examples, and figures are copyright 2023, CFA Institute. Reproduced and
republished with permission from CFA Institute. All rights reserved.

Required disclaimer: CFA Institute does not endorse, promote, or warrant accuracy or quality of the products or services
offered by MarkMeldrum.com. CFA Institute, CFA®, and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA
Institute.

© 2533695 Ontario Limited d/b/a MarkMeldrum.com. All rights reserved.

1
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Introduction to Financial Statement Analysis

a. describe the steps in the financial statement analysis framework

b. describe the roles of financial statement analysis

c. describe the importance of regulatory filings, financial statement notes and


supplementary information, management’s commentary, and audit reports

d. describe implications for financial analysis of alternative financial reporting


systems and the importance of monitoring developments in financial
reporting standards

e. describe information sources that analysts use in financial statement analysis


besides annual and interim financial reports

2
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Financial Statement Analysis

1. Determine the purpose and context of the analysis

2. Collect data - Financial Statements


- Discussions with management
- Company site visits

3. Process data - Ratios


- Growth Rates
- Common Size Statements
- Statistical tools

4. Analyze/interpret data - Conclusions/Recommendations

5. Develop/Communicate Conclusions - Analyst Report - Note: Fact v. opinion

6. Follow up

Roles of Financial Statement Analysis


Evaluate performance and position for purpose of making economic decisions

Potential Investment Other


Past
Current Credit

Equity Invt. for Loan decision Merger/


Portfolio Acqn.
Debt Rating
Valuation for a
Recommendation

VC/PE investment

3
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

1. Regulatory Filings

- IOSCO: Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation


Protecting investors
Objectives Ensuring that markets are fair, efficient and transparent
Reducing systemic risk

10 categories including Regulators, Auditing, Issuers


2 Principles for Issuers relate directly to Financial Reporting
Principles - Full, Accurate, Timely disclosure of Risk, Results, Other

- Accounting Standards used high and internationally


accepted quality

4
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

1. Regulatory Filings

- US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)


Securities Act 1933 - information & registration
Significant
Securities Exchange Act 1934 - empowered SEC
Statutes
Sarbanes-Oxley Act 2002 - auditors, internal controls

Securities offerings registration statement 8-K


Forms 10-K, 20-F, 40-F (Annual) Forms 3, 4, 5, 144
Filings Annual report Form 11-K
Proxy Statement/Form DEF-14A
10-Q and 6-K

1. Regulatory Filings

- European Union

member states regulate their own capital markets


some regulation at EU level
- notably consolidated accounts of EU-listed companies
use IFRS

securities regulation:
- European Securities Committee (ESC)
- European Securities and Market Authority (ESMA)

5
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

2. Financial Statement Notes and Supplementary Schedules

- additional information on every line of B/S, I/S plus:


major accounting policies
subsequent events
contractual obligations
off-balance sheet items ... etc.

- Business and Geographic Segment Reporting Revenue & (expenses)

disclose key line items by operating segment results reviewed

if ≥ 10% Revenue, Assets, Profit discrete data

all reported segments must add to 75% external revenue

6
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

3. Management Commentary (MD&A)

- included in 10-K , 10-Q

- unaudited !! (except for Germany)

- IASB provides a framework for ‘decision-useful management commentary’

1. the nature of the business


2. management objectives and strategies Prices Inflation

3. significant resources, risks, relationships significant events/


uncertainties
4. results of operations favorable/unfavorable trends

5. critical performance measures accounting policies


off B/S obligations
- SEC specifies content

4. Audit Reports
- Financial Statements audited by independent Auditor in accordance
with specified auditing standards
independent auditor provides written opinion, the ‘audit report’
- International Auditing Standards (ISA) - Sarbanes-Oxley Act (US)
Reasonable assurance express opinion on internal
Free from material misstatement controls

Prepared in accordance with acceptable standards


- unmodified = unqualified = clean

- modified Qualified

Adverse

Disclaimer

7
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

4. Audit Reports

IFRS versus the World

- global adoption of IFRS has advanced goal of convergence

- IFRS v. US GAAP differences still exist:


e.g.
Reconciliation between standards
not required

Analysts should monitor developments

new products/transactions may not


have specific guidance

8
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Other Sources of Information

- Issuer Sources: earnings calls, presentations, press releases, ...

- Public Third Party: industry whitepapers, analyst reports, social media, ...

- Proprietary Third Party: Bloomberg etc., Analyst reports, industry specific, ...

- Proprietary Primary Research: surveys, conservations, product comparisons, ...

9
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Analyzing Income Statements

a. describe general principles of revenue recognition, specific revenue


recognition applications, and implications of revenue recognition choices for
financial analysis

b. describe general principles of expense recognition, specific expense


recognition applications, implications of expense recognition choices for
financial analysis and contrast costs that are capitalized versus those that are
expensed in the period in which they are incurred

c. describe the financial reporting treatment and analysis of non-recurring items


(including discontinued operations, unusual or infrequent items) and changes
in accounting policies

d. describe how earnings per share is calculated and calculate and interpret a
company’s basic and diluted earnings per share for companies with simple
and complex capital structures including those with antidilutive securities

e. evaluate a company’s financial performance using common-size income


statements and financial ratios based on the income statement

10
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Analyzing Income Statements

Revenue
- Recognized when earned Risks and Rewards transferred

‘more likely
IFRS than not’
- Converged Standard
1. Identify contract with customer ➞ collectability ‘probable’ US ‘likely to
GAAP occur’
2. Identify separate/distinct performance obligations
3. Determine the transaction price ➞ allocate to distinct obligations

4. Allocate the price to performance obligations

5. Recognize revenue when entity satisfies a performance obligation


‘highly probable not reversed’

Revenue

5. Recognize revenue when entity satisfies a performance obligation

- transfer control of good/service to customer

- entity has present right to payment

- customer has legal title

- customer has physical possession

- customer has significant risks & rewards o’ship

- customer has accepted the good or service

11
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Revenue

Revenue

12
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Revenue

Expenses
- Recognize in period that:
- economic benefits associated with the expenditure are consumed

OR - Previously recognized economic benefit is lost


Three models Capitalization and
Matching Expensing as Incurred Subsequent Depreciation
or Amortization
Expenses and Revenues Period Costs
Tangible Intangible
e.g. COGS Sales e.g. Admin., Payroll Assets Assets

13
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

14
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Expenses
- Interest: companies must capitalize interest costs associated with
acquiring or constructing an asset that takes a long period
of time to get ready for its intended use

Asset Own Use Asset to Sell


Balance Sheet: Long-Lived Asset Balance Sheet: Inventory

Income Statement: Depreciation Income Statement: Cost of Sales

Cash Flow Statement: Investing Cash Flow Statement: Investing


(CFI) (CFI)

15
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Expenses
- companies must capitalize software development costs after a product’s
feasibility is established

Judgment!

16
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Expenses
- Recognition: Conservative or Aggressive

early recognition is conservative

- Estimates: Comparisons year v. year / between companies


should consider estimates:
uncollectable debts as a % sales
warranty expenses as a % sales
useful lives of assets

17
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Non-Recurring Items

- income statements tell us about the past. What about the future?
- Forecast accuracy improved by removing items less likely to repeat
Unusual or Infrequent Items
- IFRS: income/expenses ‘material or relevant’ to understanding performance
disclosed separately
- US GAAP: ‘material items that are unusual or infrequent or both are shown as
part of continuing operations but disclosed separately.

e.g. Restructuring charges

Sale of a business

18
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Non-Recurring Items

- Discontinued Operations: disposed of or established plan to dispose of


a component operation
IFRS and US GAAP require separate disclosure
- component must be separable both physically & operationally
- results presented on a net basis at the bottom of the income statement
- assets and liabilities shown on balance sheet as held for sale

- Changes in accounting policy v. Changes in accounting estimates


new standards may require prospective always prospective
or retrospective adoption
no restatement
management may change policies to
‘better reflect company performance’

- Changes in scope and exchange rates no required disclosures!

Earnings Per Share

- EPS based on net profit (or loss) and net profit or loss from continuing
operations must be disclosed on the face of the income statement

- ‘per share’ refers to: ordinary shares (IFRS) interchangeable


common stock/shares (US GAAP) terms

- Complex Capital Structure


any structure with financial instruments that are potentially
convertible into common stock e.g. Convertible Bonds
Convertible Preferred Shares
These instruments have the
Employee Stock Options
potential to dilute EPS
Warrants

19
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Earnings Per Share uses weighted average number


of shares outstanding
- Simple Capital Structure: report basic EPS

- Complex Capital Structure: report basic and diluted EPS


Assumes all dilutive
instruments are converted/
exercised

Basic EPS e.g. Net Income USD 1,950,000


𝐍𝐞𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 − 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐃𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐬 shares outstanding 1,500,000
𝐖𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 # 𝐬𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 No preferred stock

Earnings Per Share

Basic EPS calculations

Stock split

20
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Earnings Per Share

Diluted EPS: Adjust Basic EPS for dilutive instruments

Basic EPS Adjustments

Net income - preferred divs. + savings from conversion

weighted avg. # shares outstanding + shares issued on conversion/exercise

Convertible preferred stock: + convertible preferred dividend


+ shares issued on conversion

Convertible debt securities: + interest (1 - tax rate)


+ shares issued on conversion

Convertible Preferred

Net income - preferred divs. + savings from conversion

weighted avg. # shares outstanding + shares issued on conversion/exercise

21
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Convertible Debt

Net income - preferred divs. + savings from conversion

weighted avg. # shares outstanding + shares issued on conversion/exercise

Treasury Stock Method (TSM)

Net income - preferred divs.

weighted avg. # shares outstanding + net shares issued using TSM

- for outstanding stock options & warrants calculate diluted EPS using
the treasury stock method (US GAAP):
1. Assume all dilutive options/warrants have been exercised
2. Assume company uses exercise proceeds to repurchase as many
shares as possible at the average market price for the period

3. Add net number of shares to the denominator of basic EPS

- IFRS uses similar method, unnamed but same result

22
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Treasury Stock Method (TSM)

Net income - preferred divs.

weighted avg. # shares outstanding + net shares issued using TSM

Antidilutive Securities

If adjusting for an instrument increases EPS above basic EPS then it


is antidilutive Antidilutive Securities are ignored in the calculation
of diluted EPS

23
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Ratios and Common Size Analysis

- Common size income statement - each line stated as a % of sales


- removes the effect of size
- useful for cross sectional/time series analysis

𝐧𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐞 𝐠𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐟𝐢𝐭


- Profitability Ratios net margin gross margin
𝐬𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬 𝐬𝐚𝐥𝐞𝐬

24
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Analyzing Balance Sheets

a. explain the financial reporting and disclosures related to intangible assets

b. explain the financial reporting and disclosures related to goodwill

c. explain the financial reporting and disclosures related to financial instruments

d. explain the financial reporting and disclosures related to non-current liabilities

e. calculate and interpret common-size balance sheets and related financial ratios

25
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Analyzing Balance Sheets


ill?
Goodw
Intangible Assets
- Intangible Assets are - Identifiable can be acquired on a stand alone basis
- Non Monetary
- Without physical substance

- Recognition - IFRS - Cost or Revaluation Model


- US GAAP - Cost only

- useful life may be assessed as finite or indefinite

- Finite : Amortized over useful economic life, review annually


Impairment as for PPE

- Indefinite : No amortization
Annual Review of Assumption and test for impairment

Intangible Assets Probable Future Economic


Benefit
- Identifiable intangible asset recognized on balance sheet if:
Cost measured reliably
e.g. Patents, trademarks, licenses

- Internally created intangibles: IFRS - Research Costs (seeking knowledge) expensed


e.g. brands, customer lists, - Development Costs (design/testing) capitalized if
training costs, advertising criteria RE: feasibility, profitability, completion met

US GAAP - expense research and development

- Purchased Intangibles: capitalized if arise from contractual/legal right or can be sold


separately
Analyst Adjustments - Intangibles are viewed with ‘caution’ and some
may exclude them to get “tangible book value”
- B/S : Reduce Assets - I/S : add back amortization to
Reduce Equity pretax income

26
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Goodwill
- Goodwill arises on acquisition of one company by another (internally generated
goodwill not recognized)

- Calculation : excess purchase price above fair value of identifiable assets and
liabilities

- Represents: value not recognized on balance sheet e.g. Reputation, Staff skills

intangible assets that have not been recorded e.g. Research


strategic value e.g. Future operating cost savings

- Goodwill capitalized and tested annually for impairment

- Analyst Adjustments - B/S : exclude goodwill


I/S : exclude impairment charges

Financial Instruments

Definition : ‘contract that gives rise to a financial asset of one entity


and a financial liability or equity instrument of another’

(focus on this reading is financial assets)

Realized gains/losses ➞ I/S


Measurement of Financial Assets: Fair Value (Profit and Loss)
Unrealized gains/losses ➞ I/S

Fair Value (other comprehensive income) Realized gains/losses ➞ I/S


Unrealized gains/losses ➞ OCI

Realized gains/losses ➞ I/S


Amortized Cost
Unrealized gains/losses not recognized

27
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Financial Instruments

IFRS : Amortized Cost Method - Cash flows are on specified dates and consist
of principal and interest only (debt)
(US GAAP ‘held to maturity’) - Business model is to hold the asset to maturity

IFRS Fair Value through OCI - Debt


- Business model is to collect cash flows and
(US GAAP ‘available-for-sale’)
sell the asset
- Equity only if irrevocable election at purchase
IFRS only

IFRS Fair Value through P&L - If not in either of the other categories

US GAAP ‘trading’ (debt) - Or if made irrevocable election at purchase


and all equity

Financial Instruments
Example : Purchase 5% semi-annual coupon bond for EUR 100,000,000
in six months fair value is EUR 102,000,000.

28
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Non-Current Liabilities

Long Term Financial Liabilities : Amortized Cost except

- Held for trading

- Derivatives

- Non-derivatives that are hedged by derivatives

Deferred Tax Liabilities : Result from temporary timing differences

e.g. Accelerated depreciation for tax purposes


v. Straight line in accounts

Ratios and Common Size Analysis

Vertical Common Size Analysis : every line stated as a % of total assets

29
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Ratios and Common Size Analysis

Liquidity Ratios Solvency Ratios


(Ability to meet short-term obligations) (Ability to meet long-term obligations)

Long-Term 𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠 𝐓𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐃𝐞𝐛𝐭


𝐂𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐬 =
Current = Debt-to-Equity 𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐄𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐲
𝐂𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐋𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬
Debt-to-Equity = 𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐞𝐛𝐭
𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐄𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐲
𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 + 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐒𝐞𝐜. + 𝐑𝐞𝐜𝐞𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐬
Quick =
𝐂𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐋𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐃𝐞𝐛𝐭
(Acid Test) Total Debt =
𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐬

𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐡 + 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐒𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬


Cash = Financial Leverage = 𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐀𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐭𝐬
𝐂𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐋𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬
𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐄𝐪𝐮𝐢𝐭𝐲

30
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Analyzing Statements of Cash Flows I

a. describe how the cash flow statement is linked to the income statement and the
balance sheet

b. describe the steps in the preparation of direct and indirect cash flow statements,
including how cash flows can be computed using income statement and balance
sheet data

c. demonstrate the conversion of cash flows from the indirect to direct method

d. contrast cash flow statements prepared under International Financial Reporting


Standards (IFRS) and US generally accepted accounting principles (US GAAP)

31
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Analyzing Statements of Cash Flows I

Linkages Between Statements

Linkages Between Statements


Example: Purchases, Sales on Credit Balance Sheet Income Statement Statement Cash Flows
Inventory +100 Revenue - CFO -
1 Jan. Purchase EUR 100 Accounts +100 Cost of Sales -
Inventory on credit Payable

Accounts -100 Revenue -


31 Jan. Pay for Inventory Payable Cost of Sales -
Cash -100 CFO -100

1 Feb. Sell Inventory for Inventory -100 Revenue +150


CFO -
EUR 150 on credit Accounts Cost of Sales +100
Receivable +150

15 Feb. Customer pays Accounts -150 Revenue -


Receivable CFO +150
EUR 150 Cost of Sales -
Cash +150

32
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Linkages Between Statements


Example: Depreciation Balance Sheet Income Statement Statement Cash Flows

1 Jan. Own equipment, PPE 100 Depreciation CFI -


Expense
-
Cost USD 100
Depreciation for year USD 10

1 July Buy equipment for cash


PPE +200 Depreciation
- CFI -200
Cost USD 200 Expense
Cash -200
Depreciation for year USD 50

Accumulated Depreciation
+35 CFI -
31 Dec. Charge depreciation Depreciation Expense +35

expense for year

Linkages Between Statements


Example: Borrowing Balance Sheet Income Statement Statement Cash Flows

Cash +500 Interest CFF +500


31 March Borrow USD 500 -
Expense
Loan +500

Cash -525 Interest CFO/CFF -25


30 Sept. Repay USD 500 +25
Expense
Loan -500 CFF -500
and USD 25 interest

33
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Linkages Between Statements


Example: Deferred Revenue Balance Sheet Income Statement Statement Cash Flows

Company agrees to manufacture Cash - Revenue - CFO -


a custom piece of equipment Deferred
Revenue -
for a customer for USD 1000

1 Oct. Customer makes a down Cash +300 CFO +300


Revenue -
payment of USD 300 Deferred +300
Revenue

30 Nov. Equipment delivered Cash +700 CFO +700


Revenue +1,000
and balance paid Deferred
-300
Revenue

The Direct Method


Direct presentation lists out cash flows by type to calculate CFO

Most common presentation is indirect, but direct can be constructed using


the income statement and opening and closing balance sheets:

Cash Received from Customers : B/S : Accounts Receivable I/S : Revenue


2018 2017
e.g. B/S: Accounts Receivable 1,012 957 increase 55
I/S: Revenue 23,598

Revenue 23,598

[deduct] Increase in AR (55)

23,543

34
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

The Direct Method

Cash paid to suppliers B/S : Accounts Payable I/S : Cost of Goods Sold
Inventory
2018 2017
e.g. B/S: Inventory 3,984 3,277 increase 707
Accounts Payable 3,588 3,325 increase 263

I/S: Cost of Goods Sold 11,456

Cost of Goods Sold (11,456)


[deduct] Increase in Inventory (707)
Purchases from Suppliers (12,163)
add
back Increase in Accounts Payable 263
Cash Paid to Suppliers (11,900)

The Direct Method

Cash paid to employees B/S: Salary and Wages Payable I/S: Salary and Wages Expense

2018 2017
e.g. B/S: Salary and Wages Payable 85 75 increase 10

I/S: Salary and Wages Expense 4,123

Salary and Wages Expense (4,123)

add Increase in Salary and Wages Payable 10


back
Cash Paid to Employees (4,113)

35
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

The Direct Method

Cash paid for other operating expenses B/S: Prepaid Expenses I/S: Other Operating
Accrued Liabilities Expenses
2018 2017
e.g. B/S : Prepaid Expenses 155 178 decrease 23
Accrued Liabilities 1,126 1,104 increase 22

I/S : Other Operating 3,577


Expenses

Other Operating Expenses (3,577)


add
back Decrease in Prepaid Expenses 23
add Increase in Accrued Liabilities 22
back
Cash Paid for Other Operating Expenses (3,532)

The Direct Method

Cash paid for Interest B/S: Interest Payable I/S: Interest Expense

2018 2017

e.g. B/S : Interest Payable 62 74 decrease 12


I/S : Interest Expense 246

Interest Expense (246)


Decrease in Interest Payable (12)

Cash Paid for Interest (258)

36
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

The Direct Method

Cash paid for Income Taxes B/S: Income Tax Payable I/S: Income Tax Expense

2018 2017
e.g. B/S : Income Tax Payable 55 50 increase 5
I/S : Income Tax Expense 1,139

Income Tax Expense (1,139)


add
back Increase in Income Tax Payable 5
(1,134)

The Indirect Method

Instead of disclosing cashflows by type, CFO is calculated by adjusting net income


for : (1) non cash items (2) changes in operating working capital items

Additions
Depreciation & Amortization expense
Depletion expense of natural resources Subtractions
Amortization of bond discount Amortization of bond premium
Loss on sale/write-down of assets Gain on sale of assets
Loss on retirement of debt Gain on retirement of debt
Loss on investments under equity method Income on investments under equity method
Increase in deferred income tax liability Decrease in deferred income tax liability
Decrease in current operating assets Increase in current operating assets
(AR, Inventory, Prep.) Decrease in current operating liabilities
Increase in current operating liabilities
(AP, Accruals)

37
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Indirect Example (CFO)

Net Income 2,210


Depreciation Expense 1,052
Gain on Sale Equipment (205)
Increase in Accounts Receivable (55)
Increase in Inventory (707)
Increase in Accounts Payable 263
B/S 2018 2017 Change Increase in Salary and Wage Payable 10
Decrease in Prepaid Expenses 23
Increase in Other Accrued Liabilities 22
Decrease in Interest Payable (12)
Increase in Income Tax Payable 5
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities 2,606

Direct Example (CFO)

Cash Received from Customers [23,598-55] 23 543


Cash Paid to Suppliers [(11,456)-707+263] (11,900)
Cash Paid to Employees [(4,123)+10] (4,113)
Cash Paid for Other Operating Expenses
[(3,577)+23+22] (3,532)
Cash Paid for Interest [(246)-12] (258)
Cash Paid for Income Taxes [(1,139)+5] (1,134)
B/S 2018 2017 Change Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities 2,606

38
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Converting Indirect ➞ Direct (CFO)


Three Step Process:
(1) Disaggregate net income into revenues and expenses
(2) Remove non-operating and non-cash items
(3) Convert accruals based revenue/expenses into cash flow by adjusting for changes
in working capital amounts

(1) Revenue [23,598 + 205] 23 803


Expenses [(11,456)+(4,123)+(1,052)+(3,577)+(246)+(1,139)]
(21,593)
2,210
(2) Total Revenue less non-cash items [23,803-205] 23,598
Total Expenses less non-cash items [(21,593)+1,052] (20,541)

(3) Exactly as per direct method!

Cash Flows From Investing Activities


Most common components are cash flows from purchase/sale of PPE:
Purchase: cash spent on additions is an outflow from investing activities
Sale : cash received from disposals is an inflow from investing activities
Net PPE on balance sheet also changes due to depreciation which is not a cash flow
if historic cost and depreciation are given separately:
Beginning Historic Cost PPE x Beginning Accumulated Depreciation x
Additions x Accumulated Depreciation of Disposals (x)
Historic Cost of Disposals (x) Depreciation Expense x
Ending Historic Cost PPE x Ending Accumulated Depreciation x
If only given net PPE : Beginning Net PPE x
Additions x
NBV of Disposals (x)
Depreciation Expense (x)
Ending Net PPE x

39
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Cash Flows From Investing Activities


2018 2017 Beginning Historic Cost PPE 12,745
Additions 1,300
Historic Cost of Disposals (1,057)
Ending Historic Cost PPE 12 988

Beginning Accumulated Depreciation 2,891


Accumulated Depreciation of Disposals (500)
Depreciation Expense 1,052
Ending Accumulated Depreciation 3,443

Beginning Net PPE 9,854


Additions 1,300
NBV of Disposals (557)
Depreciation Expense (1,052)
Ending Net PPE 9,545

Cash Flows From Investing Activities


Beginning Historic Cost PPE 12,745
Additions 1,300 Cash Paid for Purchase of Equipment (1,300)
Historic Cost of Disposals (1,057) Cash Received from Sale of Equipment 762
Ending Historic Cost PPE 12 988 Net Cash Used for Investing Activities 538

Beginning Accumulated Depreciation 2,891


Accumulated Depreciation of Disposals (500)
Depreciation Expense 1,052
Ending Accumulated Depreciation 3,443 Proceeds 762
NBV of Disposal 557
Beginning Net PPE 9,854 Gain on Sale 205
Additions 1,300
NBV of Disposals (557)
Depreciation Expense (1,052)
Ending Net PPE 9,545

40
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Cash Flows From Financing Activities


Cash Flows from sources of finance (debt and equity) and dividends paid
(although there is a choice under IFRS for dividends paid)
Movements in debt and equity are straightforward to calculate from the balance sheet
Dividends paid can be calculated using net income and retained earnings:
Beginning Retained Earnings 2,876
Net Income 2,210
Dividends (1,120)
Ending Retained Earnings 3,966

Cash Paid to Retire Long-Term Debt (500)


Cash Paid to Retire Common Stock (600)
Cash Paid for Dividends (1,120)
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities (2,220)

US GAAP v. IFRS
US GAAP : Interest Received CFO IFRS : Interest Received CFO or CFI
Interest Paid CFO Interest Paid CFO or CFF
Dividends Received CFO Dividends Received CFO or CFI
Dividends Paid CFF Dividends Paid CFO or CFF

Bank Overdrafts Part of Cash Bank Overdrafts CFF


Taxes Paid CFO Taxes Paid CFO or CFI or
CFF

Format of Statement : US GAAP : Direct or Indirect (Direct encouraged)


Reconciliation of Net Income to CFO must be provided

IFRS : Direct or Indirect (Direct encourage)

41
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Analyzing Statements of Cash Flows II

a. analyze and interpret both reported and common-size cash flow statements

b. calculate and interpret free cash flow to the firm, free cash flow to equity, and
performance and coverage cash flow ratios

42
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Analyzing Statements of Cash Flows II

Analyze Cash Flow Statements


Evaluation of the cash flow statement involves: 1. Assessment of sources and uses of
cash in CFO, CFI, CFF
2. Assessment of the main drivers of cash
flow in CFO, CFI, CFF
1. Major Sources and Uses
Major sources of cash for a company vary with its stage of growth
Mature Companies: Operating activities should be primary source ➞ CFO can be used in
investing or financing activities
if profitable opportunities exist if no profitable opportunities exist
New/Growth Stage Companies: CFO likely to be negative for a period, must eventually
turn positive
Long Run : Desirable for CFO to cover capital expenditure

Main Drivers of Cash Flows


2. Analyze Main Drivers of Cash Flows
CFO : Is the company generating cash from its operation? How?
- movements in Receivables, Inventories, Payables
- compare CFO to Net Income (earnings quality)
- CFO > Net Income due to non-cash charges
- Net Income > CFO may indicate poor earnings quality
CFI : Identify each line as a source or use of cash
- is the company using cash to invest in PPE, make acquisitions, invest in liquid assets
- what sources of cash are being used to cover investments, excess CFO,
CFF or sales of assets (CFI)?
CFF : Is the company raising capital or repaying capital
- if consistently raising capital, when is repayment required
- CFF will also include dividend payments

43
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

E.G. Group Danone

2016 2017
CFO 2,652 2,958
CFI (848) (11,437)
CFF (1,616) 8,289
Ex Rates (151) 272
Inc/dec Cash 38 81

1. Major sources and uses?


2. Does CFO cover CAPEX?
3. What is the relationship between net income and CFO?

Common Size Statements and Ratios


There are two approaches to common size cash flow statements:
(1) Every inflow is shown as a % of total inflows
(outflow) (outflows)
- Direct Method - Indirect Method

44
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Common Size Statements and Ratios


(2) Each line item is expressed as a % of net revenue useful in forecasting

1. Trend in depreciation?
2. Trend in CAPEX?

3. CFO v. Net Income

Free Cash Flow Measures


Operating cash flows should be sufficient to cover capital expenditures:
CFO - Capital Expenditures = Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Analysts calculate two FCF measures for valuation purposes:
(1) Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF) : FCF available to both debt and equity investors
after operating expenses and taxes are paid
(2) Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) : FCF available to equity investors after borrowing
costs have been paid
(1) Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)
FCFF = Net Income + Non Cash Charges - Working Capital Investment - Fixed Capital Investment
+ Interest(1-𝐭)
FCFF = NI + NCC + Int(1-𝐭) - FCInv - WCInv

(2) Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)


FCFE = Net Income + Non Cash Charges - Working Capital Investment - Fixed Capital Investment
+ Net Borrowings - Net Repayment
FCFE = NI + NCC - FCInv - WCInv + NB

45
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Free Cash Flow Measures


FCFF Calculation
Assume a marginal tax rate of 34%

FCFF = NI + NCC + Int(1-𝐭) - FCInv - WCInv

Free Cash Flow Measures


(2) Free Cash Flow to Equity
FCFE = CFO - FCInv + Net Borrowing
(- Net Debt Repayment)

46
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Cash Flow Ratios

47
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Analysis of Inventories

a. describe the measurement of inventory at the lower of cost and net realisable
value and its implications for financial statements and ratios

b. calculate and explain how inflation and deflation of inventory costs affect the
financial statements and ratios of companies that use different inventory
valuation methods

c. describe the presentation and disclosures relating to inventories and explain


issues that analysts should consider when examining a company’s inventory
disclosures and other sources of information

48
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Analysis of Inventories

Measurement of Inventory
IFRS: Value inventory at lower of cost and net realizable value
if NRV < cost write-down charged to income statement
subsequent increases in NRV recognized and reduce
Cost of Sales in the income statement (reversal)

US GAAP: Any method other than LIFO, Retail Inventory method:


same as IFRS except: no reversals permitted
LIFO, Retail Inventory method:
lower of cost or market value
market value is defined as current replacement cost

Exception: Agricultural products, forest products, minerals, commodity broker-traders


(both)

Measurement of Inventory
Impact of write-down on ratios
Write-down: Reduces inventory (current, total assets ↓) less likely using LIFO
Increases expenses (net income, equity ↓)
Solvency Ratios Liquidity Ratios Profitability Ratios Activity Ratios
[negative effect] [negative effect] [negative effect] [positive effect]
Decrease in Equity Decrease in Current Assets Decrease in Net Income Decrease in Assets
Increase in COGS

49
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Effect of Inflation and Deflation


How the cost of inventory is allocated between inventory (B/S) and cost of sales (I/S)
depends on the accounting method used
Key Point: FIFO method: oldest units in I/S LIFO method: newest units in I/S
newest units in B/S oldest units in B/S

Inflation: FIFO method: Higher Profit (I/S) LIFO method: Lower Profit (I/S)
(Rising Input Prices) Higher Inventory (B/S) Lower Inventory (B/S)
Higher Taxes Lower Taxes

Presentation and Disclosure


Choice of accounting method for inventory affects - Cost Sales, Gross Profit, Net Income
- Inventory, Current Assets, Total Assets, Equity
IFRS Disclosures
Accounting Policy adopted
Total carrying amount broken down by: merchandise, raw materials, prodn supplies, work
in progress, finished goods
Carrying amount of inventories held at fair value less costs to sell
Amount of inventories recognized as an expense during period (cost of sales)
Amount of write-downs recognized as an expense in the period
Amount of any reversal of any write-down recognized as a reduction in cost of sales in
the period
Circumstances/events that led to reversal
Carrying amount of inventories pledged as security for liabilities
US GAAP Disclosures
As above: Less: Disclosures on reversals
Add: Significant estimates applicable to inventories
Any material income resulting from a LIFO liquidation

50
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Analysis of Long-Term Assets

a. compare the financial reporting of the following types of intangible assets:


purchased, internally developed, and acquired in a business combination

b. explain and evaluate how impairment and derecognition of property, plant, and
equipment and intangible assets affect the financial statements and ratios

c. analyze and interpret financial statement disclosures regarding property, plant, and
equipment and intangible assets

51
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Analysis of Long-Term Assets

Intangible Assets
Definition : Non-Monetary
Lack Physical Substance
IFRS Definition Criteria: (1) Identifiable Goodwill!
(2) Under the control of the company
(3) Expected to generate future economic benefits
IFRS Recognition Criteria: (1) Probable that the expected future economic benefits will flow to
(2) Cost of the asset can be reliably measured the company

Purchased (other than Bus. Combn) Developed Internally Acquired in a Business Combination
Record on B/S at fair value (cost) Expensed as incurred Purchase price allocated to identifiable
(cost allocated to each asset if part Exceptions: Development assets & liabilities at fair value
of a group)
Capitalizing versus Expensing IFRS: Must meet the definitional
Higher Assets Lower Assets and recognition criteria
Higher CFO Lower CFO US GAAP: (1) arises from contractual
Lower CFI Higher CFI or legal right
or (2) can be separated from co.

Goodwill
In a business combination the excess of the
purchase price over and above the fair value
of identifiable assets and liabilities acquired
is goodwill
Purchase Price x
FV ID NA Acquired (x)
Goodwill X

Goodwill is not separable


has indefinite life
is not amortized
is checked annually for impairment

52
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Intangible Assets
Internally Developed: Specific rules for research and development and software
development costs
Research and Development
IFRS Research (gaining knowledge and understanding) expensed
Development (application to design new/improved products) capitalized technically
feasible
intent to use/sell
US GAAP Research and development expensed
Exception: software development costs - capitalize when technologically feasible
probable completion (for
internal use project)

Impairment
Property, Plant, and Equipment
At the end of each period the company ‘assesses whether there are indications of impairment’
(obsolescence, decline demand for product etc.)
If there are indications Impairment Test

IFRS (one step) US GAAP (two step)


Impaired if carrying value > recoverable amount 1. If undiscounted cash flows
from use < carrying value
Higher of Value in use asset is impaired
Fair value less 2. If impaired, calculate the
costs to sell amount of impairment as:
carrying value - fair value
Impact on Accounts : PPE, Total Assets, Equity ↓
Not a cashflow!
Net Income ↓

53
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Impairment
PPE Example

1. Under IFRS, what would the company report for the machine? 2. Under US GAAP, what would the company report for the machine?

Impairment
PPE Example (2)

1. Under IFRS, what would the company report for the machine? 2. Under US GAAP, what would the company report for the machine?

54
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Impairment
Intangible Assets : Finite Lives
As with PPE, assessed for indications of impairment e.g. Adverse change in legal or
economic factors
Accounting is as for PPE

Intangible Assets : Indefinite Lives


Intangible assets with indefinite lives are not amortized but : Reviewed annually for impairment

Long-Lived Assets Held-For-Sale


Long-lived assets held-for-sale if Management’s intent is to sell
Sale is highly probable
Tested for impairment when classified as held-for-sale
If carrying value > fair value less costs to sell, recognize impairment loss
(Held-for-sale assets are not depreciated or amortized)

Reversal of Impairments

What if after recording an impairment, recoverable amount recovers?


IFRS US GAAP
Reverse : Record a credit in income statement (I/S) Only for held-for-sale
Increase asset carrying value (B/S)
Can only reverse up to previous carrying amount
Held-for-use, or held-for-sale losses can be reversed

Impact on Accounts : Long-lived assets, total assets, equity ↑ Not a cash flow!
Expenses decrease so net income ↑

55
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Derecognition
Derecognize an asset when it no longer provides economic benefit
If sale is highly probable move to held for sale
Gain/Loss on Sale
Proceeds From Sale* x CFI (cash flow statement), + cash B/S
Net Book Value (x) Remove from PPE in B/S
Gain/(Loss) x/(x) Income Statement - other gains and losses
- separate if material
*[zero if abandoned]

= FV asset given up
or FV asset acquired if
Asset Exchange ‘more evident’
or CV asset if no reliable FV
Carrying value removed, replaced with fair value asset acquired
[G/L = zero]

Disclosures
IFRS US GAAP
Measurement Basis (Historic Cost, Fair Value)
Depreciation Method (straight line, declining balance etc.)
Gross Carrying Amount start and end of period
Accumulated Depreciation + estimated amortization
Depreciation Expense for Period expense for next 5 yrs.
Reconciliation of Carrying Amount from Beginning to End Period
Major Classes of Assets
Justification of Indefinite Lives for Intangibles
Restrictions on title, pledges as security
Contractual Agreements to Acquire PPE
Revaluation Model : Date of revaluation
Details of fair value calculation not allowed
Carrying amount under cost model
Revaluation surplus

56
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Disclosures
IFRS US GAAP
Amount of impairment losses
Circumstances leading to impairment + method of determining fair value
Amount of impairment losses reversed not allowed for held-for-use
Circumstances leading to reversal
Where impairment losses are recognized

Note: If company uses ‘function of expense’ method for income statement depreciation
expense is shown separately

Using Disclosures
The extensive amount of PPE disclosure can be used to calculate:
1. Fixed Asset Turnover : Total Revenue
Higher Ratio = More efficient use of assets
Average Net Fixed Assets

2. Asset Age Ratios : Historic Cost = Estimated Total Useful Life


Annual Depreciation Expense

Accumulated Depreciation = Estimated Age of Assets


Annual Depreciation Expense

Assumptions : Straight Line Depreciation


No Salvage Value

57
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Using Disclosures
Orange BCE Verizon
Total Life: 97,092 69,230 246,498 - 806
4,708 3,037 14,741
20.6 22.8 16.7

Age : 70,427 45,197 157,930


4,708 3,037 14,741
15.0 14.9 10.7

Remaining : 5.6 7.9 6.0


Life

58
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Topics in Long-Term Liabilities and Equity

a. explain the financial reporting of leases from the perspectives of lessors and lessees

b. explain the financial reporting of defined contribution, defined benefit, and stock-
based compensation plans

c. describe the financial statement presentation of and disclosures relating to long-


term liabilities and share-based compensation

59
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Topics in Long-Term Liabilities and Equity

Leases
Lease : A contract that conveys the right to use an asset for a period of
time in exchange for consideration
Lessee : Pays consideration and uses an asset (e.g. a manufacturer leases a warehouse to
use)

Lessor : Receives consideration for granting the use of an asset (e.g. an investment
property company)
Requirements For Lease Accounting
The Contract Must: identify a specific underlying asset
give the customer the right to obtain largely all of the economic
benefits from the asset over the contract term
give the customer, not the supplier, the ability to direct how and for
what objective the underlying asset is used

Leases
Advantages to Leasing (v. Purchasing):
less cash required up front
lower ‘finance’ cost than an unsecured loan - asset acts as security
convenience and lower risks of ownership e.g. obsolescence
lessor widens market for customers
lessor receives income stream over the lease term

Accounting Standards classify leases as operating : Resembles a rental agreement


or finance : Resembles the purchase of an asset
Classified as finance if it meets any of the following criteria:
1. The lease transfers ownership of the underlying asset to the lessee
2. The lessee has an option to purchase the underlying asset and is reasonably certain it
3. The lease term is for a major part of the asset’s life will do so
4. The PV of the sum of lease payments equals or exceeds substantially all the FV of the
asset
5. The underlying asset has no alternative use to the lessor

60
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Leases
Is it a lease? specific asset
largely all benefits over term
customer directs use

Finance lease? transfers ownership


option to purchase (reasonably
certain)
term = major part of asset’s life
PV pmts. substantially all of FV
asset no other use to lessor

Leases
Exemption from lease accounting : Term ≤ 12 months (IFRS and US GAAP)
Asset ≤ USD 5,000 (IFRS only)
Lessee Accounting (IFRS)
Operating and Finance Leases treated identically:
Lease Liability B/S at inception Right-of-Use Asset
Present value* of future lease payments Present value* of future lease payments
(amortize using effective interest method) (amortized, usually straight line)

Interest expense I/S during life Amortization expense

Principal Repayment : (CFF) C/F during life


Interest Payment : (CFO)/(CFF)

* [discount rate = implicit rate or estimated secured borrowing rate]

61
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Leases (IFRS)

Leases
Lessee Accounting (US GAAP)
Finance Leases treated identically to IFRS
Operating Leases treated differently

US GAAP Operating Leases


Lease Liability B/S at inception Right-of-Use Asset
Present value* of future lease payments Present value* of future lease payments
(amortize using effective interest method) (amortization = lease payment - interest)
I/S during life
Lease Expense
(one line, equal to lease payment)

Lease Payment : (CF0) C/F during life

* [discount rate = implicit rate or estimated secured borrowing rate]

62
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Leases (US GAAP)

Leases (US GAAP)

63
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Leases
Lessor Accounting
IFRS and US GAAP pleasingly similar

Finance Lease
Derecognize Leased Asset B/S at inception Lease Receivable Asset
Remove from Balance Sheet Present value* of future lease payments
Reduced by pmts. using effective interest
method
I/S at inception
Difference = Gain/Loss
I/S during life
Interest income (Revenue if primary activity)
C/F during life
CFO

[ * discount rate = implicit rate]

Leases
Lessor Accounting
IFRS and US GAAP pleasingly similar

Operating Lease
Retain Leased Asset B/S at inception
Do Not Remove from Balance Sheet
I/S during life
Lease Revenue Recognized Straight Line

Cash Flow during life


CFO

64
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Leases

Employee Compensation
Salary Defined Contribution Pension Plan
Bonus Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Health & Life Insurance Premiums Share Based Compensation

Usually vest immediately or shortly after Deferred - employees may earn compensation
the grant date in the current period but receive in future
Reported as an expense in the period periods
in which they vest Amount may be based on future variables
e.g. Final Salary, Stock Price

Defined Contribution Plan


Company pays into plan, no further
obligation
Payment recorded as an expense in
the period

65
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Employee Compensation
Defined Benefit Plan
Company promises a value of future benefits to be paid in retirement:
e.g. Annual payment during retirement until death equal to # Yrs. service × Final Salary
60
Company has an obligation which it will fund with assets

PV of future obligation Held in separate legal entity (Pension Trust Fund)


Discount Rate = yield on high quality corp. bond Company makes payments into fund which
Assumptions used significantly affect obligation are invested until needed
Fund makes pension payments when required
PV of future obligation > Fair value plan assets [deficit]
Company reports a net pension liability (B/S)

PV of future obligation < Fair value plan assets [surplus]


Company reports a net pension asset (B/S)

Employee Compensation
Accounting For Defined Benefit Plan
The change in the net pension asset/liability over the year is recognized in either
the income statement or other comprehensive income (OCI). The split differs between
IFRS and US GAAP
IFRS
Income Statement Other Comprehensive Income
Service Cost - PV increase in benefit earned Remeasurements - (1) Actuarial Gains/Losses from
by employee in the year changes in assumptions
- Past service costs resulting from (e.g. Avg. service life, salary increases etc.)
changes in plan rules - (2) Difference between the actual
Net Interest return on assets and return
Expense/Income - Change in the PV of the net included in interest (P&L)
pension asset/liability due to the
passage
= (Net Pension Asset/Liability × Disc. Rate)

66
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Employee Compensation
US GAAP
Income Statement Other Comprehensive Income
Service Cost - PV increase in benefit earned Actuarial
by employee in the year Gains/Losses - on obligation (as for IFRS)
- actual return on assets less
Interest Expense - interest accrued on beginning expected return on assets (I/S)
plan obligation using discount [Typically amortized into income statement over
rate time. May be recognized immediately in I/S]

Expected Return
on Assets - return plan assets would have - past service costs resulting from
generated using expected rate changes in plan rules
of return [Amortized into income statement over
future service period of employees]

Employee Compensation
Share-Based Compensation
Aim is to align employee’s interests with those of shareholders - does it though?
Potentially involves no cash outlay but:
is a form of compensation expense
has the potential to dilute EPS
may be cash settled
may cause management to be risk averse/take excessive risks
Stock Grants
Compensation expense based on fair value of stock on the grant date
Expense recognized over the plan’s vesting schedule
Outright - Allocated over service period (current period unless specified)
Restricted - Allocated over service period related to performance

67
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Employee Compensation
Stock Options
Compensation based on fair value of option on grant date

Valuation Mode Required (Black Scholes, Binomial?)


Standards do not specify a particular model but require that it:
(1) Be consistent with fair value measurement
(2) Be based on established principles of financial economic theory
(3) Reflect all substantive characteristics of the award ➞ if dependent on events after
Key Valuation Inputs the grant date wait until
Exercise Price those facts are known
Stock Price Volatility
Estimated life of award
Estimated # options that will be forfeited
Dividend yield
Risk-Free interest rate

Employee Compensation
Accounting For Stock Options
Grant Date Vesting Date Exercise Date

Service Period Price at exercise date irrelevant


to compensation expense
Compensation expense recognized Record cash and APIC
over Service Period
Add to additional paid in
capital
No impact on equity!

Cash Settled Share Compensation


Stock Appreciation Rights (SARs) Reward for increase in share value without issuing shares
Limited potential to induce risk aversion
Fair Value allocated as expense over the service period

68
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Presentation and Disclosure


Leases
B/S : Assets : Right of Use Asset
(may be grouped in ‘other’ if not significant)
Liabilities: Lease Liability
Lessee Disclosures
Carrying Amount of ROU Asset at end of period (by class)
Total cash outflow for leases
Interest Expense on lease liabilities
Depreciation charges for ROU assets (by class)
Additions to ROU Assets
Maturity and qualitative analysis of lease liabilities and activities:
- Nature of the lessee’s leasing activities
- Future cash outflows to which lessee is potentially exposed (that are not in liabilities)
- Restrictions or Covenants imposed by leases
- Sale and leaseback transactions

Presentation and Disclosure


Lessor Disclosure
Finance Leases - Amount of selling Profit or Loss
- Finance income on the net investment in the lease
- Income relating to variable lease payments not included in measurement
of the lease
- Qualitative and Quantitative explanation of significant changes in the
carrying amount of the net investment
- Maturity Analysis of lease payments receivable - undiscounted CF Yrs. 1-5
thereafter

Operating Leases - lease income


- income relating to variable lease payments not based on an index or rate
- disaggregated information about each class of PPE subject to operating
leases
- maturity analysis of lease payments receivable - undiscounted CF Yrs. 1-5
thereafter

Plus : Qualitative and Quantitative information about leasing activities


How lessor manages risks associated with rights it retains in underlying leased assets

69
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Presentation and Disclosure


Postemployment Plans
Defined Contribution Pension Plan - Amount recognized in income statement for period
Defined Benefit Pension Plan
Characteristics and Risks
Identify and explain amounts in financial statements
Describe how plan may affect the amount, timing and uncertainty of the entity’s future
In addition, specific disclosures required include: cash flows

Nature of benefits provided, regulatory framework, governance, risks


Reconciliation opening net position to closing net position
Composition of plan assets by category (asset class)
Indications of the effect of the plan on the entity’s future cash flows
Sensitivity analysis showing how changes in assumptions would impact the financial statements
Discount Rate
Future Salary increases etc.

Presentation and Disclosure


Share-Based Compensation
Description of each type of share-based payment arrangement - Vesting Requirements
- Maximum Term of Options
- Method of Settlement
Options : Number outstanding at start of period
Granted during period
Forfeited during period
Exercised during period
Expired during period
Outstanding at the end of the period
Exercisable at the end of the period
Other equity instruments granted during the period - number and weighted average fair value
- How fair value was measured

70
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Analysis of Income Taxes

a. contrast accounting profit, taxable income, taxes payable, and income tax expense
and temporary versus permanent differences between accounting profit and taxable
income

b. explain how deferred tax liabilities and assets are created and the factors that
determine how a company’s deferred tax liabilities and assets should be treated for
the purposes of financial analysis

c. calculate, interpret, and contrast an issuer’s effective tax rate, statutory tax rate, and
cash tax rate

d. analyze disclosures relating to deferred tax items and the effective tax rate
reconciliation and explain how information included in these disclosures affects a
company’s financial statements and financial ratios

71
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Analysis of Income Taxes

Review of Terminology
Accounting Profit = Pretax Income: Reported in income statement, based on accounting standards
Taxable Income : Income subject to income taxes under relevant tax laws
Account Profit and Taxable Income are likely to be different
due to temporary differences and permanent differences
Income Tax Payable : Based on taxable income, appears on the balance sheet
Income Tax Paid : Cash amount paid, reduces income tax payable

Carrying Amount : The amount at which an asset/liability is recorded in the financial statements
Tax Base : The amount at which an asset/liability is valued for tax purposes
Carrying value and tax base are likely to be different
due to temporary differences and permanent differences

Taxable Temporary Difference Deductible Temporary Difference do not reverse


Carrying Value Asset > Tax Base Carrying Value Asset < Tax Base do not give rise to deferred tax
Carrying Value Liab. < Tax Base Carrying Value Liab. > Tax Base
[deferred tax liability] [deferred tax asset] [company tax rate ≠ statutory tax
rate]

Review of Terminology
Tax Expense = provision for income taxes : appears in income statement :

Tax Expense : Income tax payable X


Changes in deferred tax assets/liabilities X/(X)
X

72
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Deferred Tax Assets/Liabilities


DTA’s and DTL’s result from temporary differences and are shown on B/S
Assets
Carrying value > tax base ➞ deferred tax liability on B/S DTL
Carrying value < tax base ➞ deferred tax asset on B/S DTA
Liabilities
Carrying value > tax base ➞ deferred tax asset on B/S DTA
Carrying value < tax base ➞ deferred tax liability on B/S DTL
Calculation
Balance Sheet DTA/DTL : (temporary difference × tax rate)
Income Statement DT charge/credit : change in DTA/DTL during year
Valuation Allowance
Deferred tax assets should only be recognized if the company expects to be able to
realize the economic benefit of the deferred tax asset
If this is in doubt for existing DTA : IFRS : write down the DTA
US GAAP: create a valuation allowance to offset DTA

Deferred Tax Assets/Liabilities

Depreciation relates to PPE that cost 20,000 at start of year one. Assume statutory tax rate is 30%
End of: YR 3 YR 2 YR 1
Carrying Value 14,000 16,000 18,000
Tax Base 11,429 14,286 17,413
Temporary Difference 2,571 1,714 857
Balance Sheet : DT Liability 771 514 257

Income Statement : DT Charge 257 257 257

73
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Deferred Tax Assets/Liabilities

Income Tax Expense: Tax Payable (30%) 7,753 4,327 1,153


Tax Payable 7,753 4,327 1,153
Deferred Tax Charge 257 257 257
8,010 4,584 1,410

Practice Questions

74
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Calculating Tax Rates


Statutory Tax Rate
The corporate income tax rate in the country in which the company is domiciled
Effective Tax Rate
An accounting ratio: Reported Income Tax Expense
useful for forecasting NI
Pre-Tax Income

Cash Tax Rate


An accounting ratio: Tax Paid in Cash in Period
useful for forecasting CF
Pre-Tax Income
Statutory ≠ Effective due to:
Tax credits
Expenses not deductible for tax purposes
Adjustments to previous years
Withholding taxes on dividends
Activity outside country of domicile

Calculating Tax Rates

75
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Calculating Tax Rates

effective tax rate consistently lower than statutory /competitors not unusual
analysts should adjust for one-off items
normalized operating income may be used to calculate a normalized tax rate:
- Remove special items
- Remove associates

Analyzing Disclosures

76
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Analyzing Disclosures

77
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Financial Reporting Quality

a. compare financial reporting quality with the quality of reported results (including
quality of earnings, cash flow, and balance sheet items)

b. describe a spectrum for assessing financial reporting quality

c. explain the difference between conservative and aggressive accounting

d. describe motivations that might cause management to issue financial reports that
are not high quality and conditions that are conducive to issuing low-quality, or
even fraudulent, financial reports

e. describe mechanisms that discipline financial reporting quality and the potential
limitations of those mechanisms

f. describe presentation choices, including non-GAAP measures, that could be used


to influence an analyst’s opinion

g. describe accounting methods (choices and estimates) that could be used to manage
earnings, cash flow, and balance sheet items

h. describe accounting warning signs and methods for detecting manipulation of


information in financial reports

78
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Financial Reporting Quality

FRQ v. Quality of Reported Results


Financial Reporting Quality = Quality of information in Financial Reports
High-Quality Reporting provides decision-useful information:
Relevant (affects decision, material)
Faithful Representation (complete, neutral, free from error)
Enhancing characteristics of decision useful information:
Comparability, verifiability, timeliness, understandability

Quality of reported results (earnings quality) = quality of earnings - income statement


cash-flow - cash flow statement
position - balance sheet
High earnings quality result from activities that are
Sustainable
Provide sufficient return on investment
Key Point : Assessing earnings quality only possible with at least a basic level
of Financial Reporting Quality

Assessment Spectrum
Financial Reporting Quality ranges from high : Relevant, Complete, Neutral, Free from error
to low : Pure Fabrication
Earnings Quality ranges from high : Sustainable, high (adequate ROI)
to low : Unsustainable, low (inadequate ROI)
Best :① GAAP, Decision-Useful, Sustainable, Adequate Returns

② GAAP, Decision-Useful, Sustainable ?

79
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Assessment Spectrum
Best : ① GAAP, Decision-Useful, Sustainable
② GAAP, Decision-Useful, Sustainable?
③ GAAP, Biased accounting choices
Aggressive : Improve Financial Performance, Position in period
Increase revenue, earnings, CFO
Decrease expenses, level of debt
Conservative : Improve Financial Performance, Position in future periods
Decrease revenue, earnings, CFO
Increase expenses, level of debt
Examples: earnings smoothing : Conservative choices today
Aggressive choices in future
Transparency of disclosure : Do disclosures obscure unfavorable information

Assessment Spectrum
Best : ① GAAP, Decision-Useful, Sustainable
② GAAP, Decision-Useful, Sustainable?
③ GAAP, Biased accounting choices
④ GAAP, Earnings management
‘intentional choices that create biased financial reports’
I know what you’re thinking, didn’t we just... ?
Distinction (somewhat arbitrary) : intent
Real Actions: delay research expenditure to next period , earnings ↑
Accounting Choices: increase useful economic life assets , depn. ↓ , earnings ↑

⑤ Non Compliant Accounting


Incorrect treatment of transactions

⑥ Fictitious Transactions
Making stuff up

80
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Conservative v. Aggressive
Unbiased financial reporting is the ideal (faithful representation: neutral)
Investors: may prefer conservative choices (positive surprises are acceptable)
Management: may prefer aggressive choices (look how well I’m doing, reward me)
Standards ① may require conservative treatment
e.g. Research and development costs expensed
Litigation losses recognized when ‘probable’
The amount of time we spent on the rules for revenue recognition v.
expenses
② Require Judgment in their application
e.g. Big Bath Accounting
Cookie Jar Reserves

Benefits of Conservatism: Protection for lenders taking on risk (asymmetric information)


Reduces chances of litigation
Reduces chances of regulators/politicians catching heat
If taxable income = Accounting income ➞ Reduce Taxes

Motivation For Mischief


What motivates an otherwise all round good human being to dabble with the
lower end of the quality spectrum?
Mask Poor Performance
Meet or Beat Analyst Expectations
Manipulate Compensation
Avoiding debt covenant violations? If highly-leveraged, unprofitable
Conditions Conducive to Mischief
Opportunity e.g. Poor Internal Controls

Fraud
Triangle
e.g. Incentives e.g. Everyone agreed it was
a good idea
Pressure/Motivation Rationalization

81
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Discipline !
Are there mechanisms that provide discipline?

Markets : Companies compete for capital ➞ its cost is a function of perceived risk

Regulatory Authorities: Registration Requirements - before IPO


Disclosure Requirements - We have seen these. A lot of them.
Auditing Requirements - We have seen this. We’re about to again
Management Commentaries - ‘MD&A’, ‘Management Report’
Responsibility Statements - Sarbanes-Oxley & internal controls
Regulatory Review of Filings - Periodically review financial reports
Enforcement Mechanisms - Fines, Prosecution, Public Announcements
Auditors : Independent Opinion - Fairly Presented, key audit matters, internal controls
Limitations - expectation gap, sampling, independence?
Private Contracting : loan agreements & covenants ➞ motivation for manipulation?
➞ motivation for monitoring

Presentation Choices
GAAP Earnings : calculated using relevant accounting standards
Non-GAAP Earnings (pro forma earnings) : No rules. Justification? comparability
e.g. Investors use EBITDA to eliminate ‘noise’ of different dep’n./amt’n. policies

Common exclusions in Pro-Forma (non-GAAP) earnings:


Rental payments for leases EBITDAR
Equity based compensation
Acquisition related charges
Impairment charges
Litigation costs
Loss/Gain on extinguishment of debt

Loan covenants may also use non-GAAP earnings measure preferred by the lender

82
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Presentation Choices
SEC definition non-GAAP measures:
Measure of Performance that differs from that presented in the financial statements
Measure of Liquidity that differs from cash flow or CFO calculated using GAAP
If non GAAP measures are reported:
SEC: Most directly comparable GAAP measure must be displayed with equal prominence
A reconciliation to the GAAP measure must be provided
Management must justify its reasoning for believing it is useful
Management must disclose additional purposes, if material, for which it is used
Excluding charges that require cash settlement from liquidity measures prohibited
Measures that eliminate non-recurring items cannot exclude items very likely to re-occur

IFRS: Definition and explanation of non-IFRS measures must be given


A reconciliation to the IFRS measure must be provided
Management must explain why it is relevant

Presentation Choices

83
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Management Methods
Earnings and Balance Sheet
Timing of Revenue Recognition: Point at which Risks & Rewards transferred
Goods leave warehouse 31 Dec. Arrive at customer 2 Jan.
Shipping Point Destination
(Revenue this year) (Revenue next year)
Channel Stuffing: Deep discounts at quarter end, send goods without orders (DSO?, Returns?)
Bill and Hold : Goods sold but held by seller - minimal effort to fabricate
Revenue Arrangement : Manage allocation of revenue to performance obligations

Rebates : Manage the recognition of rebate allowance


Inventory Cost-Flow Assumption : FIFO v. Weighted Av. v. (LIFO)
Uncollectible Receivables : Manage allowance for uncollectible receivables

Management Methods
Earnings and Balance Sheet
Deferred Tax Assets : Manage recognition of valuation allowance

Depreciation Method : Manage UEL, salvage value, depreciation method


Capitalization v. Expensing: Incorrectly capitalize/expense costs
Acquisition/Goodwill : Underestimate fair value acquired assets
Capitalizing Intangibles : Manage timing of recognition e.g. Development Costs

Warranty Reserves : Manage allowance for warranty expenses matched to revenue

Related Party Transactions: Undertake transactions with related parties at favorable rates

84
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Management Methods
Cash Flow
Cash flow from operations is ‘closely scrutinized’ by investors
accruals based earnings (I/S) that don’t turn into cash flow may indicate shenanigans
‘more insulated’ from managerial manipulation than earnings but not immune to it

Accounts Payable : Delaying payment of suppliers increases CFO


Capitalizing Interest : Interest incurred in relation to construction of assets CFI
IFRS Choices : Interest Received CFO / CFI
Dividends Received CFO / CFI
Interest Paid CFO / CFF
Dividends Paid CFO / CFF

Warning Signs
“The choices management makes to achieve desired results leave a trail, like tracks in
sand or snow” (Ciesielski, Henry, Selling)
Revenue
Accounting Policies Note: Evidence of revenue recognition policies that make it easier to manipulate
e.g. FOB shipping, bill-and-hold, barter transactions, rebates, multiple
deliverables
Revenue Relationships: Revenue growth v. competitors v. industry v. economy
Accounts Receivable v. Revenue Trend
Asset Turnover
Inventory
Inventory Relationships: Trend
Inventory Turnover Ratio
LIFO usage (US GAAP)
Capitalization Policies
Accounting Policies Note: Capitalization Policy v. Competitors/industry practice

85
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Warning Signs
Cash Flow v. Net Income
Ratio of CFO/net income : Trend, consistently below I.O
Other
PPE Disclosures : Dep’n methods and UELs
4th Quarter Results: Consistent positive surprises in Q4
Related Party Disclosures: Evidence of related party transactions
Non-Operating Income : If included in revenue
Non-Recurring Expenses: Repetitive non-recurring expenses make no sense
Ratio Analysis : Are ratios superior to competitors - why?
Risk Factors : Young companies with stellar history maturing
Minimalist disclosures by management
Management fixated with earnings
Company cultures
Restructuring charges
Acquisition focus

86
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Financial Analysis Techniques

a. describe tools and techniques used in financial analysis, including their uses and
limitations

b. calculate and interpret activity, liquidity, solvency, and profitability ratios

c. describe relationships among ratios and evaluate a company using ratio analysis

d. demonstrate the application of DuPont analysis of return on equity and calculate


and interpret effects of changes in its components

e. describe the uses of industry-specific ratios used in financial analysis

f. describe how ratio analysis and other techniques can be used to model and forecast
earnings

87
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Financial Analysis Techniques

Framework

1. Articulate the purpose and context of the analysis


2. Collect input data
3. Process data
4. Analyze/interpret data
5. Develop and communicate conclusions
6. Follow-up

Ratio Analysis
Ratios help with comparability Remove size as a factor
Remove impact of different currencies
Assist in identification of trends

Ratios highlight relationships Between financial accounts


From one point in time to another

Ratios are not the answer Ratios are indicators


Ratios require interpretation

Ratios are at the mercy of GAAP Accounting policies can distort ratios
Ratios may need adjusting to common GAAP

Ratios have no standard form It’s up to the analyst


The universe is limitless

88
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Ratio Analysis
The Value of Ratios
Evaluate past performance
Assess current financial position
Provide helpful insights for predicting future
Evaluate changes over time
Compare to peer group
Limitations of Ratios
Finding comparables for multi-divisional companies
Conflicting Ratios: Liquidity v. Solvency
Require Judgment
Accounting Policies
Sources of Data
Financial Statements
Vendors - be wary of varying definitions

Ratios
Vertical Common Size - B/S % of Total Assets
- I/S % of Revenue
- CFS % of Revenue or % cash inflow/outflow
Horizontal Common Size
Each line item expressed as a percentage of same item from base year
e.g. Inventory : 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
100 110 115 98 99

Cross Sectional Analysis (Relative Analysis) Trend Analysis


Specific metric for one company v. another Use historical data to identify trends
e.g. use Horizontal Common Size
Graphs
Yes. We can use graphs
Regression Analysis
Identification of relationships among variables

89
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Categories

Activity Ratios - Efficiency of operations

Liquidity Ratios - Ability to meet short-term obligations

Solvency Ratios - Ability to meet long-term obligations

Profitability Ratios - Ability to generate profits from its resources

Context is King : Ratios are a social animal, they lose their value in isolation
Compare : prior periods, industry norms, competitors, company goals
Set expectations
View in context of Economic Conditions

Activity
( Asset utilization, operating efficiency )
Measures of operational performance - How effectively is company using - working capital
- longer term assets
Working Capital
Turnover and days for inventory, receivables, payables
Turnover : Income Statement Days : Number Days in Period
Average Balance Sheet Turnover Ratio

Cost of Goods Sold Days of Inventory Number Days in Period


Inventory Turnover
Average Inventory on Hand (DOH) Inventory Turnover

Revenue Days of Sales Number Days in Period


Receivables Turnover
Average Receivables Outstanding (DSO) Receivables Turnover

Cost of Goods Sold Number of Days Number Days in Period


Payables Turnover
Average Payables of Payables Inventory Turnover

90
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Activity
Cost of Goods Sold Days of Inventory Number Days in Period
Inventory Turnover
Average Inventory on Hand (DOH) Inventory Turnover
High v. Industry : Efficient inventory management?
check revenue growth
or Inadequate inventory levels?

Revenue Days of Sales Number Days in Period


Receivables Turnover
Average Receivables Outstanding (DSO) Receivables Turnover
High v. Industry : Efficient debt collection?
check revenue growth, receivables aging
or Credit terms too stringent?

Payables Turnover Cost of Goods Sold Number of Days Number Days in Period
Average Payables of Payables Inventory Turnover
High v. Industry : not making use of credit terms?
compare to liquidity
or taking early payment discounts?

Activity
( Asset utilization, operating efficiency )
Measures of operational performance - How effectively is company using - working capital
- longer term assets

Working Capital Revenue Dollars of Revenue per Dollar of WC


Turnover Average Working Capital High - greater efficiency
Industry is important

* *
Fixed Asset Revenue Dollars of Revenue per Dollar of FC/TA
Turnover Average Net Fixed Assets High - greater efficiency

[DP] * Low - inefficient?


*
- capital intensive business?
Total Asset Revenue - new business not at full capacity?
Average Total Assets - new assets?
Turnover

91
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Activity Ratios

Activity Ratios

92
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Activity Ratios

Liquidity Ratios
Ability to meet short-term obligations - level of liquidity required differs by
industry ➞ banking
Adequate? Depends on analysis of historical funding needs, access to capital

Current Ratio Current Assets [Assumes Inventory, Recbles Liquid]


Current Liabilities

Higher = Higher Liquidity


Quick Ratio Cash + Short-Term Marketable Investments + Receivables Lower = Reliance on CFO,
Current Liabilities outside financing

Cash Ratio Cash + Short-Term Marketable Investments [crisis measure]


Current Liabilities

93
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Liquidity Ratios

Defensive Interval Ratio Cash + Short-Term Marketable Investments + Receivables


Daily Cash Expenditure
How long can a company pay daily cash expenditures with existing liquid assets
Higher = More defensive

Cash Conversion Cycle (net operating cycle) DOH + DSO - Number Days Payables

Purchase Pay For Sell Collect


Goods Goods Finished Product Cash

Cash Conversion Cycle

DOH
DSO
Days Payables

Liquidity Ratios

94
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Liquidity Ratios

Liquidity Ratios

95
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Solvency Ratios
Solvency : Ability to fulfill long-term debt obligations
Solvency Ratios measure: Relative amount of debt in capital structure (debt ratios)
Adequacy of earnings and cash flow to cover
interest expenses and other fixed charges (coverage ratios)
[ operating leverage may limit the company’s
ability to make use of financial leverage ]
For purposes of calculation in this module :
Total-Debt = sum of interest-bearing short-term and long-term debt
[this excludes accrued expenses, accounts payable, leases]
Coverage Ratios
Interest Coverage : EBIT used in debt covenants Higher
Interest Payments
Greater
Solvency
Fixed Charge Coverage EBIT + Lease Payments used to measure
Interest Payments + Lease Payments quality of pref. divs.

Solvency Ratios
Debt-to-Assets Ratio Total Debt % Total Assets Financed with debt
(Total Debt Ratio) Total Assets

Debt-to-Capital Ratio Total Debt % capital represented by debt


Total Debt + Total S.H. Equity

Debt-to-Equity Ratio Total Debt Amount debt relative to equity


Total S.H. Equity

* *
Financial Leverage Ratio Average Total Assets Average used here & DuPont

* Average Total Equity Year-end is common


* [DP]

Debt-to-EBITDA Total Debt or Net Debt [Total Debt - (cash & mktble sec)]
EBITDA EBITDA How many years it would take
to repay debt based on EBITDA

96
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Profitability Ratios
Measure return earned during a period
Return on Sales Ratio = Income v. Revenue Return on Investment = Income v. Capital
(common size I/S) (Equity, Assets, Capital employed)

Operating Income
Gross Profit Margin Gross Profit Operating ROA
Average Total Assets
Revenue
* * Net Income
ROA
Average Total Assets
Operating Profit Margin Operating Income * [DP] *
Revenue EBIT(1 - 𝐭)
Return on Invested Capital
Avg. Total ST&LT Debt & Equity
Pretax Margin EBT
Revenue Net Income
ROE
Average Total Equity

* *
Net Profit Margin Net Income Return on Common Equity NI - Preferred Divs.
* [DP] * Revenue Average Common Equity

Relationships

97
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

DuPont Analysis
Return on Equity (ROE) = NI / Avg. Equity , this we already know
What drives ROE? to find that out we shall decompose it
ROE = Net Income = Net Income Avg. Total Assets
× ROE = ROA × Leverage
Avg. Sh. Equity Avg. Total Assets Avg. Sh. Equity

5 4 3 2
ROE 5.92% 1.66% 1.62% (0.62%)

ROA 3.70% 1.05% 1.05% (0.39%)


× × × ×
Leverage 1.60 1.58 1.54 1.60

98
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

DuPont Analysis
ROE = Net Income = Net Income Revenue Avg. Total Assets
× ×
Avg. Sh. Equity Revenue Avg. Total Assets Avg. Sh. Equity

ROE = Net Margin × Total Asset Turnover × Leverage

5 4 3 2
ROE 5.92% 1.66% 1.62% (0.62%)

Net Margin 3.33% 1.11% 1.13% (0.47%)


× × × ×
Total Asset Turnover 1.11 0.95 0.93 0.84
× × × ×
Leverage 1.60 1.58 1.54 1.60

99
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

DuPont Analysis
ROE = Net Income = Net Income Revenue Avg. Total Assets
× ×
Avg. Sh. Equity Revenue Avg. Total Assets Avg. Sh. Equity

ROE = Net Income EBT EBIT × Revenue × Avg. Total Assets


× ×
EBT EBIT Revenue Avg. Total Assets Avg. Sh. Equity
Tax Interest EBIT Total Asset Leverage
× × × ×
Burden Burden Margin Turnover

Revenue 1,000
Operating Expenses (400) Net = 315
=
315
× ×
EBIT 600 Margin 1,000 1,000

Interest (150) 31.5% =


EBT 450
Tax at 30% (135)
Net Income 315

DuPont Analysis

What might the analyst conclude?

100
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Industry Specific
Be aware!

Explain what this ratio is measuring and compare the results reported for
each of the years shown in the chart. What other information might an ana-
lyst want to review before making any conclusions on this information?

Models & Forecasting


Based upon forecasts of growth and expected relationships among financial data
analysts can build models to forecast future performance.

Forecasts should involve a range of possibilities using the following techniques:

Sensitivity Analysis ( what if ? ) - range of possibilities as specific assumptions are changed

Scenario Analysis - change resulting from given economic events


- mutually exclusive and exhaustive events can be assigned
probabilities and mean/median etc. outputs can be derived

Simulation - computer-generated sensitivity/scenario analysis based on probability


models for input factors e.g. Monte-Carlo simulation

101
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Introduction to Financial Statement Modeling

a. demonstrate the development of a sales-based pro forma company model

b. explain how behavioral factors affect analyst forecasts and recommend remedial
actions for analyst biases

c. explain how the competitive position of a company based on a Porter’s five forces
analysis affects prices and costs

d. explain how to forecast industry and company sales and costs when they are
subject to price inflation or deflation

e. explain considerations in the choice of an explicit forecast horizon and an analyst’s


choices in developing projections beyond the short-term forecast horizon

102
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Introduction to Financial Statement Modeling

Sales Based Pro-Forma Model


Steps in Income Statement forecast process:
1. Revenue Forecast (by segment)
Drivers : Volume (organic & acquisition)
Price (product & mix)
Forex
2. Operating Expense Forecast
COGS : Revenue and gross margin forecast
SG&A and other : Forecast % of revenue
3. Non-Operating Expense Forecast
Interest Expense : Fixed or Variable (MRR)
Interest Income : Forecasted Rate on liquid assets
Interest Tax : Effective Rate
4. Shares Outstanding
Equity-based compensation
Share repurchases

Sales Based Pro-Forma Model


(FY 2022E)
Steps in Cash Flow projection process:
1. Forecasted Net Income Net Income 179
From Pro-Forma income statement Depn. & Amtn. 36

2. Capital Expenditure and Depreciation (and Amortization) Decrease Inv.

CAPEX : % of revenue (CFI) Increase Rec. 64


Decrease Pay.
Depn & Am: % of prior year fixed assets (add back ➞ CFO)
Share Based Comp. 2
3. Working Capital Forecasts
Forecast : Days of inventory, receivables, payables CFO 281
Combine with sales and COGS forecasts CAPEX (55)
Movement (➞ CFO) Inv. Other 0
× 365
e.g. Forecasted Days Inventory = 1,500 COGS CFI (55)
Forecasted COGS = 347 Debt Issuance 0
1,500 = Inv. × 365 Inv. = 1,500 × 347 = 1,426 Share Issuance 0
347 365 Divs. Paid (10)
CFF (10)

103
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Sales Based Pro-Forma Model


Steps in Forecasting Balance Sheet :
Combination of : Projected income statement, statement of cash flows, balance sheet

e.g. PPE : Historic (2021) 845 Payables: COGS (2022 E) 347


Depn. & Amtn. (36) Days (2022 E) 628
CAPEX 55
Forecast (2022 E) 864 Forecast (2022 E) 597

Valuation Model Inputs :


Valuation models may start with : Free Cash Flow
EPS
EBITDA
EBIT

Behavioral Factors
Experts persistently make forecasting errors resulting from behavioral biases
Overconfidence
‘Unwarranted faith in own ability’
More common when making contrarian predictions
Mitigation : Share, Review, Widen Confidence Intervals, Scenario Analysis

Illusion of Control
‘Overestimation of ability to control what cannot be controlled’
Can lead to overly complex models - leads to diminishing marginal returns
Mitigation : Focus on most important variables

Conservatism Bias (Anchoring and Adjustment)


‘Maintaining prior views or forecasts by inadequately incorporating new information’
Mitigation : Regular Review, more flexible models

104
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Behavioral Factors
Experts persistently make forecasting errors resulting from behavioral biases
Representativeness Bias
‘Classifying information based on past experiences and known classifications’
Base-Rate neglect : inside view v. outside view
considers base rate
Mitigation : Consider base-rate, make adjustments

Confirmation Bias
‘Seek and notice information that confirms prior belief’
Mitigation : Seek opinions that differ

Porter’s Five Forces


[Equity : industry and competitive analysis framework]

Helps assess relative profit potential


of a company
Prospects for high/low sales growth
Forecasts of margins

Competitive advantage ?

105
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Inflation and Deflation


The impact of inflation differs : From company to company
For Revenues and Expenses
Key question for an analyst : Can the company pass on higher input prices to customers

Key Factors: Industry Structure


e.g. US Beer Market - oligopoly (AB InBev - 50% market share)
- fragmented customer base
- US beer prices generally rise and fall with input costs
European Beer Market - distributed through concentrated customer base
- no dominant brewer
- changes in European beer prices average 100bps <
inflation
Elasticity
(Inflation) Increasing prices if demand is elastic can have a negative impact
(Deflation) Dropping prices may benefit volume in the short-run until competitors react

Inflation and Deflation


Cost Projections :
Inflation impact will be delayed where companies use long-term price-fixed forward contracts
Analysts should consider industry specific factors e.g. Agriculture ➞ weather
Vertical integration can offset impact of inflation
Availability of substitutes

Offsetting Expenses :
Forecasted increases in raw material costs may lead to decrease in discretionary spend
e.g. Advertising
Research and Development

106
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Inflation and Deflation


Analysts can use common size analysis to forecast impact of price rises:
Company S Company C
Net Sales 100% 100%
COGS 50% 36%
Gross Margin 50% 64%

SG&A 31% 47%


Depreciation 3% 4%
EBIT 16% 13%

If each company experiences 10% inflation in all costs except depreciation:


Company S experiences greater decline in gross margin
Company C experiences greater decline in EBIT margin

Horizon and Long-Term


Factors affecting choice of time horizon :
Investment strategy for which the security is being considered
- e.g. Stated Investment Horizon 3 - 5 years
Average Annual Turnover 33% - 20%

Cyclicality of the industry


- forecast period should be long enough to reach expected mid-cycle sales/profitability
level

Company specific factors


- e.g. Recent acquisition/restructuring ➞ need time to realize full impact

Employer’s preferences

107
Last Revised: 06/29/2023

Horizon and Long-Term


Longer-Term Projections : normalized earnings / free cash flow
- mid cycle
- absence of unusual/temporary factors
e.g. cycle, acquisitions, restructuring
- use historical data to calculate a trend

Terminal Value Estimation : going concern value after the explicit forecast horizon
(DCF Models) - normalize free cash flow
- future growth rate v. historical
- inflection points/economic disruption can be critical

108

You might also like